Policy Paper on the Asilomar Principles on Artificial Intelligence
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Future of Research on Catastrophic and Existential Risk
ORE Open Research Exeter TITLE Working together to face humanity's greatest threats: Introduction to The Future of Research in Catastrophic and Existential Risk AUTHORS Currie, AM; Ó hÉigeartaigh, S JOURNAL Futures DEPOSITED IN ORE 06 February 2019 This version available at http://hdl.handle.net/10871/35764 COPYRIGHT AND REUSE Open Research Exeter makes this work available in accordance with publisher policies. A NOTE ON VERSIONS The version presented here may differ from the published version. If citing, you are advised to consult the published version for pagination, volume/issue and date of publication Working together to face humanity’s greatest threats: Introduction to The Future of Research on Catastrophic and Existential Risk. Adrian Currie & Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh Penultimate Version, forthcoming in Futures Acknowledgements We would like to thank the authors of the papers in the special issue, as well as the referees who provided such constructive and useful feedback. We are grateful to the team at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk who organized the first Cambridge Conference on Catastrophic Risk where many of the papers collected here were originally presented, and whose multi-disciplinary expertise was invaluable for making this special issue a reality. We’d like to thank Emma Bates, Simon Beard and Haydn Belfield for feedback on drafts. Ted Fuller, Futures’ Editor-in-Chief also provided invaluable guidance throughout. The Conference, and a number of the publications in this issue, were made possible through the support of a grant from the Templeton World Charity Foundation (TWCF); the conference was also supported by a supplementary grant from the Future of Life Institute. -
Wise Leadership & AI 3
Wise Leadership and AI Leadership Chapter 3 | Behind the Scenes of the Machines What’s Ahead For Artificial General Intelligence? By Dr. Peter VERHEZEN With the AMROP EDITORIAL BOARD Putting the G in AI | 8 points True, generalized intelligence will be achieved when computers can do or learn anything that a human can. At the highest level, this will mean that computers aren’t just able to process the ‘what,’ but understand the ‘why’ behind data — context, and cause and effect relationships. Even someday chieving consciousness. All of this will demand ethical and emotional intelligence. 1 We underestimate ourselves The human brain is amazingly general compared to any digital device yet developed. It processes bottom-up and top-down information, whereas AI (still) only works bottom-up, based on what it ‘sees’, working on specific, narrowly defined tasks. So, unlike humans, AI is not yet situationally aware, nuanced, or multi-dimensional. 2 When can we expect AGI? Great minds do not think alike Some eminent thinkers (and tech entrepreneurs) see true AGI as only a decade or two away. Others see it as science fiction — AI will more likely serve to amplify human intelligence, just as mechanical machines have amplified physical strength. 3 AGI means moving from homo sapiens to homo deus Reaching AGI has been described by the futurist Ray Kurzweil as ‘singularity’. At this point, humans should progress to the ‘trans-human’ stage: cyber-humans (electronically enhanced) or neuro-augmented (bio-genetically enhanced). 4 The real risk with AGI is not malice, but unguided brilliance A super-intelligent machine will be fantastically good at meeting its goals. -
Global Catastrophic Risks 2016
Global Challenges Foundation Global Catastrophic Risks 2016 © Global Challenges Foundation/Global Priorities Project 2016 GLOBAL CATASTROPHIC RISKS 2016 THE GLOBAL CHALLENGES FOUNDATION works to raise awareness of the The views expressed in this report are those of the authors. Their Global Catastrophic Risks. Primarily focused on climate change, other en- statements are not necessarily endorsed by the affiliated organisations. vironmental degradation and politically motivated violence as well as how these threats are linked to poverty and rapid population growth. Against this Authors: background, the Foundation also works to both identify and stimulate the Owen Cotton-Barratt*† development of good proposals for a management model – a global gover- Sebastian Farquhar* nance – able to decrease – and at best eliminate – these risks. John Halstead* Stefan Schubert* THE GLOBAL PRIORITIES PROJECT helps decision-makers effectively prior- Andrew Snyder-Beattie† itise ways to do good. We achieve his both by advising decision-makers on programme evaluation methodology and by encouraging specific policies. We * = The Global Priorities Project are a collaboration between the Centre for Effective Altruism and the Future † = The Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford of Humanity Institute, part of the University of Oxford. Graphic design: Accomplice/Elinor Hägg Global Challenges Foundation in association with 4 Global Catastrophic Risks 2016 Global Catastrophic Risks 2016 5 Contents Definition: Global Foreword 8 Introduction 10 Catastrophic Risk Executive summary 12 1. An introduction to global catastrophic risks 20 – risk of events or 2. What are the most important global catastrophic risks? 28 Catastrophic climate change 30 processes that would Nuclear war 36 Natural pandemics 42 Exogenous risks 46 lead to the deaths of Emerging risks 52 Other risks and unknown risks 64 Our assessment of the risks 66 approximately a tenth of 3. -
Letters to the Editor
Articles Letters to the Editor Research Priorities for is a product of human intelligence; we puter scientists, innovators, entrepre - cannot predict what we might achieve neurs, statisti cians, journalists, engi - Robust and Beneficial when this intelligence is magnified by neers, authors, professors, teachers, stu - Artificial Intelligence: the tools AI may provide, but the eradi - dents, CEOs, economists, developers, An Open Letter cation of disease and poverty are not philosophers, artists, futurists, physi - unfathomable. Because of the great cists, filmmakers, health-care profes - rtificial intelligence (AI) research potential of AI, it is important to sionals, research analysts, and members Ahas explored a variety of problems research how to reap its benefits while of many other fields. The earliest signa - and approaches since its inception, but avoiding potential pitfalls. tories follow, reproduced in order and as for the last 20 years or so has been The progress in AI research makes it they signed. For the complete list, see focused on the problems surrounding timely to focus research not only on tinyurl.com/ailetter. - ed. the construction of intelligent agents making AI more capable, but also on Stuart Russell, Berkeley, Professor of Com - — systems that perceive and act in maximizing the societal benefit of AI. puter Science, director of the Center for some environment. In this context, Such considerations motivated the “intelligence” is related to statistical Intelligent Systems, and coauthor of the AAAI 2008–09 Presidential Panel on standard textbook Artificial Intelligence: a and economic notions of rationality — Long-Term AI Futures and other proj - Modern Approach colloquially, the ability to make good ects on AI impacts, and constitute a sig - Tom Dietterich, Oregon State, President of decisions, plans, or inferences. -
AIDA Hearing on AI and Competitiveness of 23 March 2021
SPECIAL COMMITTEE ON ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE IN A DIGITAL AGE (AIDA) HEARING ON AI AND COMPETITIVENESS Panel I: AI Governance Kristi Talving, Deputy Secretary General for Business Environment, Ministry of Economic Affairs and Communications, Estonia Khalil Rouhana, Deputy Director General DG-CONNECT (CNECT), European Commission Kay Firth-Butterfield, Head of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learnings; Member of the Executive Committee, World Economic Forum Dr. Sebastian Wieczorek, Vice President – Artificial Intelligence Technology, SAP SE, external expert (until October 2020) in the study commission on AI in the Bundestag * * * Panel II: the perspective of Business and the Industry Prof. Volker Markl, Chair of Research Group at TU Berlin, Database Systems and Information Management, Director of the Intelligent Analytics for Massive Data Research Group at DFKI and Director of the Berlin Big Data Center and Secretary of the VLDB Endowment Moojan Asghari, Cofounder/Initiator of Women in AI, Founder/CEO of Thousand Eyes On Me Marina Geymonat, Expert for AI strategy @ Ministry for Economic Development, Italy. Head, Artificial intelligence Platform @TIM, Telecom Italia Group Jaan Tallinn, founding engineer of Skype and Kazaa as well as a cofounder of the Cambridge Centre for the Study of Existential Risk and Future of Life Institute 2 23-03-2021 BRUSSELS TUESDAY 23 MARCH 2021 1-002-0000 IN THE CHAIR: DRAGOŞ TUDORACHE Chair of the Special Committee on Artificial Intelligence in a Digital Age (The meeting opened at 9.06) Opening remarks 1-003-0000 Chair. – Good morning dear colleagues. I hope you are all connected and you can hear and see us in the room. Welcome to this new hearing of our committee. -
Ssoar-2020-Selle-Der Effektive Altruismus Als Neue.Pdf
www.ssoar.info Der effektive Altruismus als neue Größe auf dem deutschen Spendenmarkt: Analyse von Spendermotivation und Leistungsmerkmalen von Nichtregierungsorganisationen (NRO) auf das Spenderverhalten; eine Handlungsempfehlung für klassische NRO Selle, Julia Veröffentlichungsversion / Published Version Arbeitspapier / working paper Empfohlene Zitierung / Suggested Citation: Selle, J. (2020). Der effektive Altruismus als neue Größe auf dem deutschen Spendenmarkt: Analyse von Spendermotivation und Leistungsmerkmalen von Nichtregierungsorganisationen (NRO) auf das Spenderverhalten; eine Handlungsempfehlung für klassische NRO. (Opuscula, 137). Berlin: Maecenata Institut für Philanthropie und Zivilgesellschaft. https://nbn-resolving.org/urn:nbn:de:0168-ssoar-67950-4 Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Dieser Text wird unter einer CC BY-NC-ND Lizenz This document is made available under a CC BY-NC-ND Licence (Namensnennung-Nicht-kommerziell-Keine Bearbeitung) zur (Attribution-Non Comercial-NoDerivatives). For more Information Verfügung gestellt. Nähere Auskünfte zu den CC-Lizenzen finden see: Sie hier: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/deed.de MAECENATA Julia Selle Der effektive Altruismus als neue Größe auf dem deutschen Spendenmarkt Analyse von Spendermotivation und Leistungsmerkmalen von Nichtregierungsorganisationen (NRO) auf das Spenderverhalten. Eine Handlungsempfehlung für klassische NRO. Opusculum Nr.137 Juni 2020 Die Autorin Julia Selle studierte an den Universität -
Comments to Michael Jackson's Keynote on Determining Energy
Comments to Michael Jackson’s Keynote on Determining Energy Futures using Artificial Intelligence Prof Sirkka Heinonen Finland Futures Research Centre (FFRC) University of Turku ENERGIZING FUTURES 13–14 June 2018 Tampere, Finland AI and Energy • Concrete tools: How Shaping Tomorrow answers the question How can AI help? • Goal of foresight crystal clear: Making better decisions today Huge Challenge – The Challenge The world will need to cut energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by 60 percent by 2050 -even as the population grows by more than two billion people Bold Solution on the Horizon The Renewable Energy Transition Companies as pioneers on energy themes, demand, supply, consumption • Google will reach 100% RE for its global operations this year • GE using AI to boost different forms of energy production and use tech-driven data reports to anticipate performance and maintenance needs around the world BUT …also the role of governments, cities and citizens …NGOs, media… new actors should be emphasised AI + Energy + Peer-to-Peer Society • The transformation of the energy system aligns with the principles of a Peer-to-Peer Society. • Peer-to-peer practices are based on the active participation and self-organisation of citizens. Citizens share knowledge, skills, co-create, and form new peer groups. • Citizens will use their capabilities also to develop energy-related products and services Rethinking Concepts Buildings as Power stations – global (economic) opportunity to construct buildings that generate, store and release solar energy -
Artificial Intelligence: a Roadmap for California
Artificial Intelligence: A Roadmap for California Report #245, November 2018 Milton Marks Commission on California State Government Organization and Economy Little Hoover Commission Dedicated to Promoting Economy and Efficiency Pedro Nava Chairman in California State Government Sean Varner Vice Chairman/ Subcommitee Member The Little Hoover Commission, formally known as the Milton Marks “Little Hoover” David Beier Commission on California State Government Organization and Economy, is an Subcommitee Chair independent state oversight agency created in 1962. By statute, the Commission Iveta Brigis is bipartisan and composed of nine public members, two senators and two Subcommitee Member assemblymembers. Cynthia Buiza In creating the Commission, the Legislature declared its purpose: Anthony Cannella Senator [T]o secure assistance for the Governor and itself in promoting Chad Mayes economy, efficiency and improved services in the transaction of Assemblymember the public business in the various departments, agencies and Don Perata instrumentalities of the executive branch of the state government, Bill Quirk and in making the operation of all state departments, agencies and Assemblymember instrumentalities, and all expenditures of public funds, more directly Richard Roth responsive to the wishes of the people as expressed by their elected Senator representatives. Cathy Schwamberger The Commission fulfills this charge by holding public hearings, consulting with experts Janna Sidley and listening to stakeholders. During the course of its studies, the Commission may Former Commissioners Who create subcommittees and conduct site visits. Served During The Study Joshua LaFarga The findings and recommendations of the Commission are submitted to the Governor and the Legislature for their consideration. Recommendations often take the form of Helen Iris Torres legislation, which the Commission supports through the legislative process. -
2016 Annual Report
Technology is giving life ...or to self-destruct. the potential to flourish Let’s make a difference! like never before... Annual Report Making a Difference 2016 1 2016 By the Numbers Nuclear Participants Conference 200 We launched our nuclear divestment campaign at Speakers MIT’S Nuclear Conference. 18 and panelists Billion dollars committed $1 to nuclear divestment Conferences attended AI Safety 17 by FLI members Events This is an increase of 36 AI safety events from the Invitations to speak at events previous year. 15 Events co-organized to 4 highlight AI safety ubshe, eerreee ers Grant Recipients 43 ur rnt reents re rey hr t or to ee Worshos rntees orne 87 nor rtte n bene. rtes rtten by or bout rntee reserh 16 or mor ubtons 2 2016 By the Numbers, Cont. on eoe the 1 rete eos Website We rehe oer mon on sts eoe onne bout .5 to s estent rs n hoe. on sts to .5 rtes n ebes rtes220 ubshe ntony tht reerene Months of News s mentone n mor nes outets eery month o the yer. nternton100 rtes tht reerene rtes11 rtten or the ste Tot1 number o ontons Donors Wee hee so muh thns to the enerosty o our onors. on$3.3 onte to roets n onors ho e t est8 , 3 Message from the President It’s been a great honor for me to get to work with such a talented and idealistic team at our institute to ensure that tomorrow’s most powerful technologies have a positive impact on humanity. -
NATO Legal Gazette Issue 41
Issue 41 October 2020 Legal Gazette Legal Aspects of Innovation 1 PAGE 2 NATO LEGAL GAZETTE, Issue 41 Contents Introduction, by Sherrod Lewis Bumgardner……………………………...….……......... 4 Preface, by Geoffrey S. Corn and Gary Corn..……………………………………... 6 Innovation for peaceful purposes only: Where there is the will, there is ITER, by Antoaneta Boeva …………………………………………………………………………… 14 Partnership, Not Pivot: NATO’s Legal Answer to the China Question, by Lauren Brown ………………………………………………………………………………………... 27 Responsibility, Liability and Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems, by Theodora Vassilika Ogden ………………………………………………………………. 46 Autonomous Weapon Systems: A Pragmatic Approach to an Emerging Capability, by Major Gregg F. Curley..………………………………………………… 61 U.S. Export Controls: The Future of Disruptive Technologies, by Christopher Timura, Judith Alison Lee, R.L. Pratt and Scott Toussaint …………………………... 96 The Relevance and Benefits of Integrated Compliance Strategy (ICS) for NATO Defence Forces, by Martijn Antzoulatos-Borgstein …………………..…...…. 125 Legal Operations: The Use of Law as an Instrument of Power in the Context of Hybrid Threats and Strategic Competition, by Rodrigo Vázquez Benítez……….. 138 The Road to Hell is Paved with Bad Contractors: Vendor Vetting is a Better Path, by Brett Sander ……………………………………………………………………… 145 Publisher: Monte DeBoer, ACT Legal Advisor Editor-in-Chief: Sherrod Lewis Bumgardner, ACT SEE Legal Advisor Editors: Mette Prassé Hartov, HQ SACT Deputy Legal Advisor Galateia Gialitaki, ACT SEE Legal Assistant Copy Editors: Robert ‘Butch’Bracknell, HQ SACT Staff Legal Advisor Col Xavier Labarriere, HQ SACT Staff Legal Advisor Miles S. Porter, HQ SACT Legal Extern Malia Kenza Chenaoui, ACT SEE Legal Extern Copy Proofreader: Caitlin Fendon, HQ SACT Legal Intern Lola Chanfreau, ACT SEE Legal Extern 2 NATO LEGAL GAZETTE, Issue 41 PAGE 3 Disclaimer: The NATO Legal Gazette is produced and published by Headquarters Supreme Allied Commander Transformation (HQ SACT). -
Download Global Catastrophic Risks 2020
Global Catastrophic Risks 2020 Global Catastrophic Risks 2020 INTRODUCTION GLOBAL CHALLENGES FOUNDATION (GCF) ANNUAL REPORT: GCF & THOUGHT LEADERS SHARING WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ON GLOBAL CATASTROPHIC RISKS 2020 The views expressed in this report are those of the authors. Their statements are not necessarily endorsed by the affiliated organisations or the Global Challenges Foundation. ANNUAL REPORT TEAM Ulrika Westin, editor-in-chief Waldemar Ingdahl, researcher Victoria Wariaro, coordinator Weber Shandwick, creative director and graphic design. CONTRIBUTORS Kennette Benedict Senior Advisor, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists Angela Kane Senior Fellow, Vienna Centre for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation; visiting Professor, Sciences Po Paris; former High Representative for Disarmament Affairs at the United Nations Joana Castro Pereira Postdoctoral Researcher at Portuguese Institute of International Relations, NOVA University of Lisbon Philip Osano Research Fellow, Natural Resources and Ecosystems, Stockholm Environment Institute David Heymann Head and Senior Fellow, Centre on Global Health Security, Chatham House, Professor of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine Romana Kofler, United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs Lindley Johnson, NASA Planetary Defense Officer and Program Executive of the Planetary Defense Coordination Office Gerhard Drolshagen, University of Oldenburg and the European Space Agency Stephen Sparks Professor, School of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol Ariel Conn Founder and -
The Future of AI: Opportunities and Challenges
The Future of AI: Opportunities and Challenges Puerto Rico, January 2-5, 2015 ! Ajay Agrawal is the Peter Munk Professor of Entrepreneurship at the University of Toronto's Rotman School of Management, Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research in Cambridge, MA, Founder of the Creative Destruction Lab, and Co-founder of The Next 36. His research is focused on the economics of science and innovation. He serves on the editorial boards of Management Science, the Journal of Urban Economics, and The Strategic Management Journal. & Anthony Aguirre has worked on a wide variety of topics in theoretical cosmology, ranging from intergalactic dust to galaxy formation to gravity physics to the large-scale structure of inflationary universes and the arrow of time. He also has strong interest in science outreach, and has appeared in numerous science documentaries. He is a co-founder of the Foundational Questions Institute and the Future of Life Institute. & Geoff Anders is the founder of Leverage Research, a research institute that studies psychology, cognitive enhancement, scientific methodology, and the impact of technology on society. He is also a member of the Effective Altruism movement, a movement dedicated to improving the world in the most effective ways. Like many of the members of the Effective Altruism movement, Geoff is deeply interested in the potential impact of new technologies, especially artificial intelligence. & Blaise Agüera y Arcas works on machine learning at Google. Previously a Distinguished Engineer at Microsoft, he has worked on augmented reality, mapping, wearable computing and natural user interfaces. He was the co-creator of Photosynth, software that assembles photos into 3D environments.