COUNTRY REPORT Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V.

BELARUS WOLFGANG SENDER

June 2018 The NATO exercise Saber Strike www.kas.de/ BELARUS BEING A FACTOR

Updated daily reports related to Belarus in Twitter: From June 4 to 15 NATO was conducting a is no direct concentration of Russian anti- https://twitter.com/kas_belarus defense exercise Saber Strike in Estonia, NATO troops, which makes the situation by , and with 18,000 no means comparable to that of the Kalinin- participating soldiers. The exercise sought grad region. to strengthen defense in a geographically significant region: a nearly 100-kilometer In various scenarios and comments, the narrow strip of land near the city of Su- threat level in the region is seen to be fur- walki between NATO members Lithuania ther amplified by the perceived equivalence to the north and Poland to the south, and of the situations in Belarus and . Such Russia's Kaliningrad to the west and the views are overly superficial. While the Re- Republic of Belarus to the east. The so- public of Belarus is in a and a called Suwalki Gap is often compared to defense union with Russia, and its defense the Fulda Gap - a probable offensive cor- policy is closely linked to Russia with little ridor of the Warsaw Pact countries on the room for its own discretion, still, in Belarus, NATO during the Cold War that lay in the and thus on an important eastern part of triangle between Thuringia, Hesse and the NATO border, there are no Russian Bavaria. combat troops stationed as of yet.

Saber Strike was an announced exercise The stand of Belarus with the aim of also testing the rapid de- ployment of troops in the Allies, it was an- There are only occasional, if not insignifi- nounced against the backdrop of many Rus- cant, cases of presence of Russian troops in sian exercises, and contrary to Russian Belarus, including the service operators of practice, in reality the number of partici- two aid organizations - a regional pants did not exceed the announced figures, telecommunications center of the Russian and above all, it was of a much smaller Navy in Wilejka ( district) and an early scale than usual maneuvers on the Russian warning radar station near Baranovichi side. (Brest area) 1 — as well as temporary per- sonnel and materiel presence during mili- The media coverage of the exercise Saber tary exercises and training and material as- Strike described the situation in this region with a fair emphasis on the fact, that Rus- sia's Kaliningrad stations a menacing, as 1 well as massive, and not purely defensive Skolko rossiyskikh voyenikh obyektov na contingent of troops and materiel, which territorii Belarusi? Deutsche Welle. Available has a noteworthy capacity of Russian Armed at: https://goo.gl/3JGXKh . Accessed on forces. 19.06.2018.

Belarus, however, which delimits the Su- Voyennoe sotrudnichestvo Belarusi s Ros- walki gap on the east, should be seen in a siyei. Belarus Security Blog. Available at: light different than that of the media cover- https://goo.gl/SGduuE . Accessed on age. Here, at least for the time being, there 19.06.2018.

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Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V. sistance from Russia. Although the Regional an intergovernmental agreement between Group of the Armed Forces of Belarus and Russia and Belarus, the Regional Group is to BELARUS Russia is entitled to use a number of joint be used on the basis of uniform Russian- WOLFGANG SENDER military infrastructure facilities, these still Belarusian plans. 4 remain in each nation’s own hands during June 2018 peacetime.2 Russia's reactions to Minsk's refusal was manifested not only in greater political www.kas.de/belarus Over the recent years the government in pressure on Minsk, but also the replacement Minsk has - much to the displeasure of Rus- of the assets kept near Smolensk and in Updated daily reports sia - successfully warded off attempts of Klintsy, on Russian territory bordering on related to Belarus in Twitter: Russia to station Russian stand-alone offen- Belarus, with new military bases. For exam- https://twitter.com/kas_belarus sive forces - for example, one of the wishes ple, in Klintsy - 45 kilometers from the Bel- of Moscow was to have a Russian own air arusian border and near – Russia base as well as group of Iskander missiles started building up an approximately operated by Russian personnel. It is obvious 10,000-strong 144th motor-rifle division on that such refusal was extremely difficult to the basis of a 28th motorized rifle brigade stand by due to contractual relations, politi- relocated from the Siberian city of Yekate- cal integration and economic dependency, rinburg in May 2016. 5 These 10,000 soldiers and thus represents a remarkable success alone exceed the number of rotating NATO of Belarusian foreign and security policy. troops in the entire region many times over and will be permanently stationed, unlike Minsk was able to strike an agreement that the NATO units. only the existing shared facilities would be modernized instead of having new Russian An engineer battalion, a rifle regiment and facilities: at the end of 2017, the Belarusian an armored regiment of the 144th Division government approved a $ 20 million pro- were stationed in Jelnja near Smolensk - gram of the Union state of Belarus and Rus- about 100 kilometers from the Belarusian sia till for 2020 to modernize the shared border. Smolensk itself has taken up a re- military infrastructure in the Republic of connaissance battalion and a communica- Belarus. In December 2017, a Russian- tions battalion. Other units in the division - Belarusian agreement on joint military and two more rifle regiments, an artillery regi- technical support of the Regional Group of ment, an anti-aircraft and missile regiment, Armed Forces of Belarus and Russia was electronic combat units and supply depart- published.3 The latter, which has existed ments - are all stationed along the Belarus- since 1998, comprises the armed forces and ian border in the Russian regions of Smo- military assets of Belarus and the Russian lensk and Bryansk. This also shows a clear forces and military assets stationed in three areas near Belarus. In the case of deploy-

ment for purposes of defense, according to

4 Voennoe sotrudnichestvo Belarusi s Ros- 2 Voyennoe sotrudnichestvo Belarusi s Ros- siyei. Belarus Security Blog. Available at: siyei. Belarus Security Blog. Available at: https://goo.gl/SGduuE . Accessed on https://goo.gl/SGduuE . Accessed on 19.06.2018. 19.06.2018. 5 Rossiya perevodit voyska k granitse s Bel- arusyu. Chto eto znachit? UDF.BY. Available at: https://goo.gl/v1it2R . Accessed on 3 Minsk razvivayet sotrudnichestvo s NATO, 19.06.2018. Also see: Schlechte Stimmung sokhraniaya voyennoe sotrudnichestvo s zwischen Moskau und Minsk. Länderbericht, Rossiyei. Belarus Security Blog. Available KAS-Belarus. Available at: at: https://goo.gl/wL2PkA . Accessed on https://goo.gl/fBw54Z . Accessed on 19.06.2018. 19.06.2018.

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Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V. focus on Ukraine. 6 In view of these devel- is not particularly happy about such discre- opments, since 2015 Minsk has also been tion of its alliance partner Belarus. BELARUS making greater efforts not only to improve WOLFGANG SENDER its own relations with NATO, but also to po- In terms of security policy, Belarus is not sition itself as a mediator between NATO only hampered by the generally increasing June 2018 and Russia. While NATO has been reluctant tensions between NATO and Russia, but al- to respond to these requests from the Bela- so, in particular, by the war in Ukraine on www.kas.de/belarus rusian side, Minsk was able to provide im- its southern flank. Minsk is being very care- portant impetus for a dialogue through its ful not to get involved in any way in this Updated daily reports praiseworthy mediation services for the conflict beyond its peace efforts towards related to Belarus in Twitter: conflict in Ukraine, as well as through fur- Ukraine. So far, the Belarusian policy has https://twitter.com/kas_belarus ther diplomatic efforts and expert confer- been successful. Belarus is the only state in ences. The most important recent diplomat- the Eastern neighborhood without territorial ic action was the call for a peace conference conflicts: this is a state of things that should to reduce tensions between Russia and the be acknowledged and preserved by the West. This initiative, quite ill-dubbed "Hel- West. sinki-2," has seen no positive response from the West so far, while Russia has come to Pressure from Russia terms with this idea only these past few weeks and is now apparently trying to The fact that Minsk has been able to with- shape the initiative according to its own stand the massive Russian pressure so far is ideas. One of the fundamental problems be- often as wrongly overlooked in the Western hind it all is that the West occasionally sus- commentary as the fact that the new Bela- pects covert activity of Russia behind rusian military doctrine adopted on 20 July Minsk's suggestion, while a more credible 2016 (i.e. after the Crimean annexation) for view is that the idea actually comes from the first time ever articulates the goal of the Belarusian Foreign Ministry and Russia good relations with NATO and the European Union. Despite the traditional and regular

pro-Russian positioning of the country's leadership resulting from its diverse close

6 See: Novaya diviziya ZVO. Livejournal. ties with Russia, Belarus, unlike others, is Available at: https://goo.gl/vN6ctg . Ac- interested in good relations with NATO and cessed on 19.06.2018. Vystupleniya na- aims to make arrangements with both par- chalnika generalnogo shtaba WSU Wiktora ties. Muzhenko! Ili generala Muzhenko? Woennoe obozrenye. Available at: As important as strengthening NATO's de- https://goo.gl/qWXEBt . Accessed on fense and documenting NATO's defense 19.06.2018. Rossya gotowitsa k oborone? preparedness, for example through Saber Informatsionnoe soprativlenye. Available at: Strike , is ensuring that in the event of a https://goo.gl/qBZZRB . Accessed on military conflict with Russia in the region 19.06.2018. Rossiya planiruyet do kontsa the most immediate military threat would goda razvernut tri divizii na granitse s emanate from the region of Kaliningrad. In Ukrainoi. UNIAN. Available at: the event of a conflict, Russian ground https://goo.gl/1TK9Gr . Accessed on troops would first have to march from their 19.06.2018. Ryadom s Vitebskom i Mo- bases to the east of Belarus, first crossing gilevom poyawitsya nowaya Rossiyskaya the entire Belarus - which, however, can be motostrelkowaya diviziya. BELSAT. Availa- done in just one day. The Belarusian troops, ble at: https://goo.gl/Gp8smR . Accessed on on the one hand, have little offensive poten- 19.06.2018. Istoriya nichemu ne nauchila. tial; on the other hand, it would be contrary Nezawisimiy analiticheskiy centr geo- to Belarusian security concept to support politicheskikh issledovanij. Borisfen Intel. Russian offensive. Therefore, in case of the Available at: https://goo.gl/bn6iSt . Ac- scenario with Russia actually making ad- cessed on 19.06.2018. vance towards the Baltics across the territo- ry of Belarus, NATO would probably also

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Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V. have to face the loss of Belarusian sover- For this reason, NATO and its individual eignty. Any reasonable planning must ex- Member States could examine the extent to BELARUS pect that Russian troops, after crossing Bel- which, firstly , Belarus can be more closely WOLFGANG SENDER arus, could also stay in Belarus, let alone, involved in political dialogue programs. No see it incorporated into Russia (akin to the changes in cooperation are required if more June 2018 Crimean scenario). intensive meetings and exchanges could take place within existing formats. www.kas.de/belarus Comprehensive defense planning therefore requires not only looking at Belarus closer Secondly , the Alliance is currently doing Updated daily reports than previously, but, in particular, paying very little to raise factual awareness of related to Belarus in Twitter: closer attention to the situation on the Bela- NATO in Belarus. In terms of communica- https://twitter.com/kas_belarus rusian-Russian border in eastern part of tion, the security issues in Belarus are left Belarus. Stronger arms control, observa- to Russia and the CSTO. While the situation tions, open sky, reconnaissance and moni- is similar in Russia, Moscow still has a NATO toring are recommended approaches here. Information Office , although there is just an ambassadorial NATO contact point in Minsk. Dialogue and Information There is also a rotation of this Minsk contact point among the embassies, small as they Greater attention to Belarus is not only ap- are. In particular, the establishment of a propriate for a realistic assessment of the NATO Information Office in Belarus seems situation in the region, but is ever relevant to be a possible option to better raise also against the background of the currently awareness about orientations of the Alliance too few military-political relations between among the military, politicians, academic the Alliance and Belarus, given the size, lo- community and general public. Even if such cation, stability and sovereignty of the an office is not feasible, at least the current country. Although Belarus participates in activities of the Public Diplomacy Division in NATO’s Partnership for Peace , cooperation Belarus can be expanded. The already con- takes place in less important fields of the ducted events at the expert level could be security policy. In addition to NATO-Russia intensified and feature more senior brass Council and good relations with Ukraine, a from NATO and the member states than stronger interaction with Belarus could con- previously. This also offers an additional tribute to a more meaningful dialogue on dialogue opportunity with the Russian party. the security situation in the region. Thirdl y, the training assistance for Belarus- A refusal to dialogue, despite the clear will ian military executives, which was previous- from Minsk, strengthens within the Belarus- ly intensively provided by Germany, could ian apparatus, where the voices still domi- be intensified once again. nant in the military field speak in support of one-sided closer military ties with Russia: Fourth , if the first three points are taken voices that support a reasonable balance into account, one must also bear in mind displayed by Belarus in its mediation be- that any activation of military contacts with tween East and West and that also exist in Belarus must be accompanied by corre- the government, are hardly supported by sponding communication with Russia to rule the West. out any suspicions of Moscow. However, the fear of Moscow’s possible reaction to im- This situation also means that the Western proved relations between NATO and Belarus Alliance is receiving too little information is unfounded as long as NATO is focused on about which security positions are repre- easing tensions and does not create the im- sented in Belarus. In the case of a stronger pression that it is undermining the defense confrontation in the region, there are also union between Belarus and Russia. far too few personal contacts and interlocu- tors in the country. Fifth , it is clear that Belarusian defense pol- icy can only follow the already existing mul- Proactive approaches ti-vector approach if the country is not

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Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V. completely and exclusively dependent on the Konrad Adenauer Foundation organizes Russian economic and financial support. In a conference in Minsk with the Belarusian BELARUS this sense, it still seems appropriate to sup- research institute FPS and the Public Diplo- WOLFGANG SENDER port the economic development in Belarus macy Division of NATO. In addition, since and to respond to the declared desire of the 2015, high-level foreign and security policy June 2018 government in Minsk to diversify its eco- events have taken place within the frame- nomic relations. At this point, the EU and work of the Minsk Dialogue. Check out Twit- www.kas.de/belarus the Member States already provide clear ter (@kas_belarus ) and Facebook support, which, for example, has prospects (www.facebook.com/kasbelarus ) for our re- Updated daily reports for expansion within the framework of the ports on security relations in the region and related to Belarus in Twitter: Eastern Partnership. It goes without saying relations between Russia and Belarus. https://twitter.com/kas_belarus that this is conditional on continuing discus- sions on values, human rights and political freedoms in the country.

Sixth , it should be noted that Belarus gets all the more under military pressure from Moscow, the more active NATO becomes in the eastern NATO member countries. The Belarusian Foreign Minister Vladimir Makej has already suggested that the possible es- tablishment of a US military base in Poland, which is currently being discussed, could lead to Minsk being even more pressured by Moscow to station Russian troops on Bela- rusian territory. So far, however, Moscow has only reinforced troops in its own territo- ry - and in the Crimea.

However, if the Russian government exerts so much pressure on Minsk to create new bases for the alliance in Eastern Europe that the Belarussian government is forced to give in, contrary to the above, the region falls in danger of losing an important-for- security in-between state. NATO and Rus- sian troops would then face each other di- rectly and at point blank. This, in turn, would require further strengthening by the Alliance. The answer to avoiding can only be found in contributing to safeguarding the independence and sovereignty of the Re- public of Belarus, in strengthening the na- tional armed forces of the neighboring NATO members, as well making specific steps by favoring the European instead of transatlantic instruments.

Note: Since 2015, the Konrad Adenauer Foundation has been promoting the security dialogue between NATO and the EU and Belarus through a large number of seminars and conferences, including representatives from Russia on a regular basis. Every year,