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Changes in Barents Sea Ice Edge Positions in the Last 440 Years: a Review of Possible Driving Forces*

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Changes in Barents Sea Ice Edge Positions in the Last 440 Years: a Review of Possible Driving Forces* International Journal of Astronomy and Astrophysics, 2020, 10, 97-164 https://www.scirp.org/journal/ijaa ISSN Online: 2161-4725 ISSN Print: 2161-4717 Changes in Barents Sea ice Edge Positions in the Last 440 years: A Review of Possible * Driving Forces Nils-Axel Mörner1#, Jan-Erik Solheim2, Ole Humlum3, Stig Falk-Petersen4 1Paleogeophysics & Geodynamics, Stockholm, Sweden 2Department of Physics and Technology, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway 3The University Centre on Svalbard (UNIS), Longyearbyen, Svalbard, Norway 4The Fram Centre, Akvaplan-niva, Tromsø, Norway How to cite this paper: Mörner, N.-A., Abstract Solheim, J.-E., Humlum, O. and Falk-Petersen, S. (2020) Changes in Barents Sea ice Edge This is the first report of the Barents Sea Ice Edge (BIE) project. The BIE po- Positions in the Last 440 years: A Review of sition has varied between latitude 76˚N and above 82˚N during the last 440 Possible Driving Forces. International Journal years. During the period 10,000 to 6000 years ago, Arctic climate was signifi- of Astronomy and Astrophysics, 10, 97-164. https://doi.org/10.4236/ijaa.2020.102008 cantly warmer than today. We review various oceanic and atmospheric fac- tors that may have an effect on the BIE position. The Gulf Stream beat with re- Received: April 12, 2020 spect to alternations in flow intensity and N-S distribution plays a central role Accepted: June 6, 2020 for the changes in climate and BIE position during the last millennium. This Published: June 9, 2020 occurred in combination with external forcing from total solar irradiation, Copyright © 2020 by author(s) and Earth’s shielding strength, Earth’s geomagnetic field intensity, Earth’s rotation, Scientific Research Publishing Inc. jet stream changes; all factors of which are ultimately driven by the planetary This work is licensed under the Creative beat on the Sun, the Earth and the Earth-Moon system. During the last 20 years, Commons Attribution International th License (CC BY 4.0). we see signs of changes and shifts that may signal the end of the late 20 cen- http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ tury warm period. The BIE position is likely to start advancing southward in Open Access next decade. Keywords Barents Sea Ice Edge, Cyclic Changes, Gulf Stream Beat, Planetary-Solar Forcing 1. Introduction Fluctuations of the southern sea ice edge and the Marginal Ice Zone in the Arctic Ocean in the North Atlantic occupy a key function for the understanding of *Barents Sea Ice Edge (BIE). #Corresponding author. DOI: 10.4236/ijaa.2020.102008 Jun. 9, 2020 97 International Journal of Astronomy and Astrophysics N.-A. Mörner et al. climate changes. The aim of this paper is to investigate a possible connection be- tween the orbits of the planets and Earth’s climate as documented in our revised 440 years long BIE position record. This is an old hypothesis, based on the com- plex synchronization structure of the solar system, which since Pythagoras of Samos (ca. 570 - 495 BC) is known as the music of the spheres [1]. As science evolved with Kepler’s elliptical orbits and Newton’s mechanics, and in particular with the discovery by Christian Huygens in the 17th Century, that entrainment or synchronization between coupled oscillators requires very little energy exchange if enough time is allowed, the hypothesis of a connection is strengthened. Since the solar system is about 5 billion years old, there is plenty of time to synchronize. Synchronization is observed in a large number of numerical relations in the solar system [2]. Since short periods may be washed out by stochastic noise in the climate system it is important to find long time series where the long periods may be preserved. In this paper we discuss what we can learn from a 440 years long series of estimated positions of Barents Sea Ice Edge (BIE). In this series of papers, we present analysis of a revised data set, covering 440 years, of the estimated position of the late August ice edge position in the Ba- rents Sea Ice Edge (BIE). The data set is unique in the sense that it covers the two last grand solar minima, the Maunder Minimum (1640-1720) and the Dalton Minimum (1790-1820) [3], the first one of which includes the coldest period of the last millennium in the Northern hemisphere (1690-1700) according to [4]. The Barents Sea Ice Edge (BIE) project was launched in 2015. The present pa- per, termed Paper 1, provides an introductory review of active variables and po- tential forcing functions. The second report, termed Paper 2, provides a more detailed analysis of correlations with other data sets and possible drivers of the BIE position variation. The present paper begins with a general outline (Sections 2 and 3) of the geo- logical and paleoclimatical background. The Gulf Stream plays a central role and is discussed in Section 4 with respect to its temporal and spatial variations dur- ing the last millennium. Section 5 discusses multiple integrated effects. Tempera- ture and ice conditions during the Holocene are presented in Section 6. The life and resources in the Arctic including a graph of the BIE changes during the last 440 years are given in Section 7. Section 8 is devoted to a discussion of possible external driving forces. Section 9 covers internal coupling and feedback processes. The paper ends with a discussion in Section 10, and the conclusions drawn in Section 11. 2. North Atlantic Ocean The opening of the North Atlantic Ocean began in the Early Eocene (e.g. [5] [6]). Mörner [7] gave a general account of the major Cenozoic events in the North Atlantic with respect to plate tectonics, crustal-lithospheric movements, paleo- ceanography and paleoclimatology. As stressed by Hopkins [8], the GIN Sea (i.e. the Greenland, Iceland and Norwegian Seas) “plays a unique and vital role in the DOI: 10.4236/ijaa.2020.102008 98 International Journal of Astronomy and Astrophysics N.-A. Mörner et al. circulation of the world’s ocean, in coupling the Polar Sea (Arctic Ocean) to the Atlantic Ocean”. The rate of modern sea floor spreading is in the order of a couple of centime- tres per year [9]. The Faroe-Iceland Ridge underwent a stepwise long-term sub- sidence ending in uplift in the Mid-Pleistocene [7]. The Fennoscandian Shield was suddenly uplifted at about the Oligocene/Miocene boundary around 23 Ma (Ma = million years), initiating “The Baltic River” debouching in the Nether- lands [7] [10] and slump deposits west of Svalbard [11] ending in a considerable subsidence of the Baltic region in the last million years. The Barents Shelf expe- rienced uplift pulses at about 38 Ma, 22.5 Ma and 5 - 4 Ma, ending in a subsi- dence in the Mid-Pleistocene. Svalbard was uplifted at 22.5 Ma. 3. Paleoclimate In the Paleocene to Eocene, Svalbard had a temperate climate [12] [13]. The tem- perate flora on Svalbard was originally assigned a Miocene age [14], which posed some paleoclimatological problems. At about 3 - 4 Ma (million year), the Panama Isthmus closed [7] [15] [16], which initiated the formation of the Gulf Stream bringing warm, high-salinity equatorial water to high latitudes in the North Atlantic (cf. below) and the Arctic cross-polar flow. By this, regional evaporation increased, especially from the ocean between Greenland, Svalbard and Norway, leading to increasing precipitation over the adjoining land areas, partly in the form of snow, resulting in significant glacier growth. At about 3 Ma, there was a short period of quite temperate climatic conditions with a boreal forest in the Cape Copenhagen Formation of northeast Greenland. This period represents a global warm peak and global sea level high stand span- ning the Kaena Reversed Geomagnetic Polarity zone within the Gauss Normal Polarity zone [17] [18]. At the Gauss/Matuyama boundary at about 2.6 Ma [17] [19] or rather at dur- ing Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) G10 at around 2.8 Ma [20] [21] [22] the alterna- tion between continental glaciations and interglacials commenced. In Europe the sequence of continental glaciations started with the Pretiglian Glaciation at around the Gauss/Matuyama boundary and in the early Matuyama [7] [23] [24] [25]. Jakobsson et al. [26] presented a useful overview of the glacial history of the Arc- tic Ocean during the last 150,000 years. The probable impact from previous in- terglacials on our understanding of present-day climate conditions has been as- sessed by Kandiano et al. [27]. The deglaciation of the Barents Sea region is cov- ered by [28] [29] [30]. 4. The Gulf Stream The Gulf Stream sets the character of the North Atlantic (e.g. [31] [32] [33]). From the Gulf of Mexico, the Gulf Stream follows the American east coast up to New Foundland where it turns east and splits into two main branches (Figure 1); DOI: 10.4236/ijaa.2020.102008 99 International Journal of Astronomy and Astrophysics N.-A. Mörner et al. the northern branch (known as the North Atlantic Drift) and the southern branch (known as the Canary Current). The northern branch (NB) reaches all the way up into the Barents Sea and the Arctic Ocean, making northwestern Europe mild and inhabitable. The southern branch (SB) affects the Gibraltar area, northwest Africa and the Canary Islands. When the warm Gulf Stream water in the North Atlantic Drift meets the cold polar water in the Norwegian Sea and in the Labrador Sea, it sinks forming the North Atlantic Deep Water, which is a part of the huge global thermohaline cir- culation system (Figure 2). This is a global system of surface water circulation and deep-water circulation.
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