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Geography, Lomonosov Moscow State University RUSSIAN GEOGRAPHICAL SOCIETY FACULTY OF GEOGRAPHY, LOMONOSOV MOSCOW STATE UNIVERSITY INSTITUTE OF GEOGRAPHY, RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES No. 04 [v. 07] 2014 GEOGRAPHY ENVIRONMENT SUSTAINABILITY EDITORIAL BOARD EDITORs-iN-chieF: Kasimov Nikolay S. Kotlyakov Vladimir M. Vandermotten Christian Lomonosov Moscow State Russian Academy of Sciences Université Libre de Bruxelles, University, Faculty of Geography, Institute of Geography, Belgium 04|2014 Russia Russia GES 2 Tikunov Vladimir S. (Secretary-General) Kroonenberg Salomon Lomonosov Moscow State University, Delft University of Technology Faculty of Geography, Russia Department of Applied Earth Sciences, Baklanov Alexander The Netherlands Danish Meteorological Institute, Kulmala Markku Denmark University of Helsinki, Division of Baklanov Petr Ya. Atmospheric Sciences, Finland Russian Academy of Sciences, Malkhazova Svetlana M. Pacific Institute of Geography, Russia Lomonosov Moscow State University, Chalkley Brian Faculty of Geography, Russia University of Plymouth, UK Meadows Michael E. Chubarova Natalya E. University of Cape Town, Department Lomonosov Moscow State University, of Environmental and Geographical Sciences Faculty of Geography, Russia South Africa De Maeyer Philippe Nefedova Tatyana G. Ghent University, Russian Academy of Sciences, Department of Geography, Belgium Institute of Geography, Russia Dobrolubov Sergey A. O’Loughlin John Lomonosov Moscow State University, University of Colorado at Boulder, Faculty of Geography, Russia Institute of Behavioral Sciences, USA Haigh Martin Pedroli Bas Oxford Brookes University, Wageningen University, Department of Social Sciences, UK The Netherlands Gulev Sergey K. Radovanovic Milan Russian Academy of Sciences, Serbian Academy of Sciences and Arts, Institute of Oceanology, Russia Geographical Institute “Jovan Cvijić”, Guo Huadong Serbia Chinese Academy of Sciences, Solomina Olga N. Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth, Russian Academy of Sciences, China Institute of Geography, Russia Jarsjö Jerker Tishkov Arkady A. Stockholm University, Department of Russian Academy of Sciences, Physical Geography and Quaternary Institute of Geography, Russia Geology, Sweden Wuyi Wang Kolosov Vladimir A. Chinese Academy of Sciences, Russian Academy of Sciences, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Institute of Geography, Russia Natural Resources Research, China Konečný Milan Zilitinkevich Sergey S. Masaryk University, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Faculty of Science, Czech Republic Finland CONTENTS Geography Nina I. Frolova, Valery I. Larionov, Jean Bonnin, Aleksander N. Ugarov 04|2014 SEISMIC RISK CARTOGRAPHIC VISUALIZATION FOR CRISIS MANAGEMENT ............. 4 GES Dietrich Soyez LE TOURISME INDUSTRIEL EN ALLEMAGNE: ÉTATS DES LIEUX, POINT FAIBLES 3 ET DÉFIS (INDUSTRIAL TOURISM IN GERMANY: SITUATION, WEAKNESSES AND CHALLENGes) ....................................................................28 Environment Svetlana M. Malkhazova, Yang Linsheng, Wang Wuyi, Dmitry S. Orlov, Natalia V. Shartova, Li Hairong, Wang Li HEALTH OF URBAN POPULATION IN MOSCOW AND BEIJING AGGLOMERATIONS ....................................................................41 Emel Okur-Berberoglu EXPLOITATION OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCES AND RURAL COMMUNITIES BY GLOBAL FOOD COMPANIES ........................................................54 Marina O. Leibman, Alexander I. Kizyakov, Andrei V. Plekhanov, Irina D. Streletskaya NEW PERMAFROST FEATURE – DEEP CRATER IN CENTRAL YAMAL (WEST SIBERIA, Russia) AS A RESPONSE TO LOCAL CLIMATE FLUCTUATIONS .........68 Sustainability Ifatokun P. Ifabiyi, Abiodun O. Adedeji ANALYSIS OF WATER POVERTY FOR IREPODUN LOCAL GOVERNMENT AREA (KWARA STATE, NIGERia) ...............................................................81 Stepan P. Zemtsov, Vyacheslav L. Baburin, Klaus P. Koltermann, Inna N. Krylenko, Natalia M. Yumina, Vladimir Yu. Litvinov SOCIAL RISK AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF HAZARDOUS HYDROLOGICAL PHENOMENA IN RUSSIA ...............................................................95 NEWS AND revieWS Sergei A. Dobrolyubov, Valerian A. Snytko ISSUES OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF TERRITORIES AT THE BAKU MEETING ..............................................................................118 Nina I. Frolova1*, Valery I. Larionov1, Jean Bonnin2, Aleksander N. Ugarov3 1 Seismological Center, Institute of Environmental Geosciences, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia * Corresponding author, e-mail: [email protected] 2 Institute of Physics of the Earth, University of Strasbourg, France 3 Extreme Situations Research Center, Moscow, Russia SEISMIC RISK CARTOGRAPHIC GEOGRAPHY VISUALIZATION FOR CRISIS 4 MANAGEMENT Abstract. Earthquake loss estimations before at earthquake source, as well as a finer future events and following strong earthquakes knowledge of wave propagation and of in emergency mode and their corresponding interaction of waves with artifacts. In order, visualization are extremely important for proper for the authorities in-charge and emergency decision on preventive measures and effective managers, to be really efficient when response in order to save lives and properties. confronted to a strong event just occurred or The paper addresses the methodological issues expected, they should be provided with the of seismic risk and vulnerability assessment, necessary data and models to estimate the mapping with GIS technology application. potential damage caused by an earthquake Requirements for simulation models, occurring in a specific environment. Models databases used at different levels, as well as and corresponding codes must be worked ways of visualizations oriented for Emergency out, tested and improved; naturally, data Management Agencies, as well federal and is required. Most often, data needed local authorities are discussed. Examples of shows specific features: extremely bulky, mapping at the different levels: global, country, accumulated and stored locally, eventually region and urban one are given and the restricted in its use by the owners if not influence of input data uncertainties on the simply unavailable. reliability of loss computations is analyzed. Nevertheless, the potential impact of Key WORDS: earthquake loss estimation, large earthquakes can be reduced by maps of risk and vulnerability, support of implementing preventive measures’ plans decision making. based on seismic risk maps and timely and correct action just after a disastrous Introduction earthquake. Earthquakes are among the most damaging The paper discusses methodological natural phenomena striking mankind; when issues for earthquake loss assessment, occurring in a densely populated territory, requirements for simulation models and they can prove devastating. They are sudden databases used at different levels, as well as and not predictable in the present scientific ways of visualizations oriented for different context, in the sense that scientists are not end-users, first of all for emergency managers yet in the position of warning efficiently the and authorities in-charge. Examples of exposed populations that an event is being seismic risk and vulnerability mapping prepared in the short term. with Extremum Family Systems’ application [Sushchev et al., 2010] are given, and the Progress will obviously come from a better influence of input data uncertainties on the understanding of the physical processes reliability of loss computations is analyzed. Procedure OF SEISMIC RISK number of fatalities, injuries and homeless AND Vulnerability ASSESSMENT Rsc3 as a result of earthquakes’ occurrence per year. In Russia as in many countries the methods of risk assessment and mapping with Speaking about seismic vulnerability, the the help of GIS technology have been authors use both concepts of fragility and developed taking into account the general vulnerability. Vulnerability may be estimated concept adopted by UN experts [Karnik & through physical and economical domains. Algermissen, 1978; Fournier d’Albe, 1982; Physical vulnerability Vph(I) is an index, Karnik, 1984; Boissonnade & Shah, 1984; which characterizes the loss of functional GEOGRAPHY Mitigating ..., 1991; UNISDR...., 2009; Risk..., properties of the considered element at risk. 5 2010; Ranguelov, 2011] that seismic risk Rs In the case of buildings it may be estimated as a ratio between the expected number of damaged buildings of a certain type due to Rs = HVs(I ) (1) earthquakes with intensityIand total number of buildings belonging to this type. where – Vs(I ) is the seismic vulnerability of elements at risk (population and When solving some problems the physical built environment) for the considered vulnerability of buildings can also be settlement; – Н is the probability of seismic characterized by the average damage event per one year. state of buildings daverage(I) at seismic intensity I. For example, this indicator is According to ISO 31010, risks are the used for visualization on maps the extent combination of the consequences of of damage to building stock in settlements an event or hazard and the associated [Larionov et al. 2003a, 2003b]. likelihood of its occurrence. EU Guidelines on Risk Assessment and Mapping for Disaster Economic vulnerability for buildings of different Management (http://register.consilium. types Ve(I) is characterized by ratio between the europa.eu/pdf/en/10/st17/st17833.en10.pdf) cost of repair and the initial cost of construction built on experience about existing good [Larionov et al. 2003a, 2003b, 2006; Frolova et al. practice of risk
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