Geography, Lomonosov Moscow State University

Russian Geographical Society

Faculty of Geography, Lomonosov Moscow State University

Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences

No. 04 [v. 07] 2014 GEOGRAPHY ENVIRONMENT SUSTAINABILITY 2 GES 04|2014 Russia University, Faculty ofGeography, L Kasimov Nikolay S. Russian A Petr Ya. Baklanov D P Danish M AlexanderBaklanov Faculty ofGeography, Russia L S. Tikunov Vladimir D Oxford BrookesUniversity, Haigh Martin Faculty ofGeography, Russia L Dobrolubov Sergey A. D Ghent University, De Maeyer Philippe Faculty ofGeography, Russia L Chubarova Natalya E. ofP University Brian Chalkley Chinese A Huadong Guo tockholm University,Stockholm D Jarsjö Jerker China I I Russian A Gulev Sergey K. Russian A A. Kolosov Vladimir Geology, Sweden P Faculty ofS M Konečný Milan I Editors-in-chief EDITORIAL BOARD nstitute ofRemote S nstitute ofO nstitute ofGeography, Russia omonosov M omonosov M omonosov M omonosov M acific I hysical Geography andQuaternary enmark epartment ofS epartment ofGeography,epartment Belgium asaryk University,asaryk nstitute ofGeography, Russia eteorological I cademy ofS cademy ofS cademy ofS cademy ofS cience, Czech Republic ceanology, Russia oscow State lymouth, UK oscow State University, oscow State University, oscow State University, ocial S : ensing andDigital Earth, (Secretary-General) ciences, ciences, ciences, ciences, ciences, UK nstitute, epartment of epartment Russia I Russian A KotlyakovM. Vladimir nstitute ofGeography, cademy ofS D Kroonenberg Salomon niversity ofC University Meadows E. Michael Faculty ofGeography, Russia L Malkhazova Svetlana M. A Divisionof ofHelsinki, University Kulmala Markku T D Russian A Nefedova TatyanaG. S of Environmental andGeographical S S Radovanovic Milan T W Pedroli Bas I ofC University O’Loughlin John I Geographical I Finland Finnish M Zilitinkevich Sergey S. Natural Resources Research, China I Chinese A Wuyi Wang I Russian A Tishkov A. Arkady I Russian A OlgaN. Solomina S nstitute ofBehavioral S nstitute ofGeography, Russia nstitute ofGeographical S nstitute ofGeography, Russia nstitute ofGeography, Russia omonosov M he Netherlands he Netherlands outh A erbian A erbian erbia tmospheric S tmospheric niversity of University elft arth S ofAppliedEarth epartment ageningen University, ciences frica cademy ofS cademy ofS cademy ofS cademy ofS eteorological I cademy ofS oscow State University, olorado atBoulder, ape nstitute “Jovan C ciences, Finland Belgium Université Libre deBruxelles, Vandermotten Christian T T echnology own, D ciences, ciences, ciences, ciences andArts, ciences, ciences, USA nstitute, ciences and epartment epartment vijić”, ciences, ciences ciences Marina O.Marina Leibman, Alexander I.Kizyakov, V. Andrei Plekhanov, IrinaD. Streletskaya Emel Okur-Berberoglu Natalia V. Shartova, LiHairong, Wang Li Svetlana M.Malkhazova, Yang Linsheng, Wang Wuyi,S.Orlov, Dmitry Nina I.Frolova, Valery I.Larionov, N.Ugarov Aleksander Bonnin, Jean Sergei A.Dobrolyubov,Sergei Valerian A.Snytko Ifatokun P. O. Ifabiyi, Abiodun Adedeji Natalia M.Yumina, VladimirYu. Litvinov Stepan P. Zemtsov, Vyacheslav L.Baburin,KlausP. Koltermann, InnaN.Krylenko, Dietrich SoyezDietrich Ne Sustainability Environment Geography CONTENTS New permaNew fr Exploitation Health of SEISMIC Issues of Analysis of ng Meeti SOCIAL by Global Food C a et défis (Industrialet Le tou rismendustriel i en (Kwara State, Nigeria) (West Siberia, Russia) as aresponse to local climate fluctuations and challenges) PHENOMEA ws gglomerations and RISK AND RISK CAR . . revie Sustainable Development of urban

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3 GES 04|2014 4 GEOGRAPHY 1 they canprovethey devastating. inadenselypopulated territory, occurring when mankind; natural phenomenastriking are amongthemostdamaging Earthquakes decision making. of andvulnerability,maps ofrisk support reliability oflosscomputationsisanalyzed. the on influence ofinputdatauncertainties region oneare andurban given and the mapping at the different levels: global, country, are local authorities discussed. Examplesof M ways of visualizationsfororiented Emergency databases usedatdifferent levels, aswell as Requirements for simulation models, mapping withGIStechnology application. of seismic riskassessment, vulnerability and T response inorder to save lives andproperties. decision onpreventive measures andeffective for proper visualization are important extremely modeand theircorresponding in emergency future events andfollowing strong earthquakes understanding ofthephysical processes P term. prepared intheshort exposed populations that an event is being yet efficientlythe inthepositionofwarning inthesensethatscientistsarecontext, not and notpredictableinthepresent scientific 3 2 I.FrolovaNina , e-mail: [email protected]* Corresponding author,e-mail: of Sciences, Moscow, Russia Introduction Key Abstract MANAGEMENT VISUALIZATION FOR CRISIS SEISMIC RISK CARTOGRAPHIC Extreme Situations Extreme Research Center, Moscow, Russia ofPhysicsUniversity ofStrasbourg, Institute oftheEarth, France SeismologicalCenter, ofEnvironmental Institute Geosciences, RussianAcademy he paper addresses the methodological issues he paperaddresses themethodological issues rogress willobviously comefrom abetter anagement A words . arthquake loss estimations before lossestimationsbefore Earthquake :

earthquake lossestimation, earthquake gencies, aswell federal and 1* , Valery I.Larionov T hey arehey sudden 1 , JeanBonnin reliability ofloss computationsisanalyzed. onthe influence ofinput datauncertainties etal.,[Sushchev 2010]are given, andthe Familywith Extremum S ystems’ application mapping andvulnerability seismic risk in-charge. Examples ofand authorities end-users, firstofallfor managers emergency ways forof visualizationsoriented different databases usedatdifferent levels, aswell as requirements for simulationmodelsand lossassessment, issues for earthquake T earthquake. adisastrous justafter action and correct maps and timelybased on seismic risk implementing preventive measures’ plans can be reducedlarge by earthquakes of the potential impact Nevertheless, simply unavailable. initsusebyrestricted theowners ifnot accumulated andstored locally, eventually shows specificfeatures: bulky, extremely is required. M out, tested and improved; naturally, data and corresponding codesmustbeworked inaspecificenvironment.occurring M potential damagecausedby anearthquake dataandmodelsto estimate the necessary expected, shouldbeprovided they withthe confronted to astrong event justoccurred or managers, to bereally efficientwhen andemergency for in-charge theauthorities of wavesinteraction with artifacts. of waveknowledge propagation and of source, as well asafiner at earthquake he paper discusses methodological 2 , Aleksander N.Ugarov ost often, data needed I n order, 3 odels of fatalitiesR may number astheexpected bedetermined C one year atagiven place. homeless R astheprobabilityoffatalitiesdetermined where – V 2010; Ranguelov, R 2011]thatseismicrisk M 1984; Boissonnade & Karnik, 1978;FournierAlgermissen, d’Albe,1982; & [Karnik concept adopted by UNexperts into accountthegeneral developed taking the helpofGIStechnology have been assessmentand mapping withof risk I R fatalities and injuries R fatalities and injuries risk dueto seismichazardsrisk R probabilistic approach isused. I indexes mappingtherisk andrisk are considered.earthquakes, For estimation as individual created risk andcollective by M same concept. developed by theend2010alsofollow the disasters available inM assessmentsfor ofrisk majornatural practice aboutexistinggood built onexperience europa.eu/pdf/en/10/st17/st17833.en10.pdf) M on Risk A on Risk ofitsoccurrence. likelihood EUGuidelines hazardor andtheassociated event an combination oftheconsequences A event settlement; – Н built environment) for theconsidered (populationandof elementsatrisk R and Procedure n Russia as in many the methods countries s s s ollective risk dueto seismichazards risk ollective R ccording areto ISO31010,risks the =HV ore often two seismic risk indexes,ore seismicrisk two often such R...., 2009; Risk..., itigating ...,1991;UNISDR....,2009;Risk..., 2, probabilityoffatalities, and injuries anagement (http://register.consilium. 1; probabilityoffatalities and injuries Vulnerability per oneyear. s (I ssessment andM ) (1) R s ( s I 3 due to earthquakes within to earthquakes due 3 of sc )

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state of buildings d bycharacterized theaverage damage ofbuildingscanalsobevulnerability When solvingsomeproblems thephysical of buildingsbelonging to thistype. Iand total withintensity number earthquakes dueto type damaged buildingsofacertain numberof theexpected as aratiobetween I oftheconsidered elementatrisk. properties thelossoffunctional which characterizes intensity intensity vulnerability. and authors usebothconceptsoffragility aboutseismicvulnerability,Speaking the per year. P through physical andeconomicaldomains. R number of fatalities, and homeless injuries and probabilityP damage state notlessthangiven valueI; y y to MMSK-86 scale[Shebalinetal. 1986]: different classifiedaccording buildingtypes are functions used forand vulnerability assessment atdifferent levels, laws fragility and vulnerability risk projects for earthquake grades ofseismicscales. I in state), ofshaking andtheintensity to bedamaged(theprobabilityP of buildingsbelonging to different types theprobability between dependence-ships T 2003a; 2007]. etal.[Larionov 2003a, 2003b, 2006;Frolova etal. cost ofrepair andtheinitialcostofconstruction types types E etal.[Larionov 2003a, 2003b]. of damageto buildingstock insettlements used for visualizationon mapstheextent n thecaseofbuildingsitmay beestimated conomic vulnerability forconomic vulnerability buildingsofdifferent y y he fragility lawshe fragility are understood asthe sc hysical vulnerability V hysical vulnerability stone orconcrete blocks); hewn B,buildings types B1, B2 (brick, materials); A1,2(frombuildings types local 3

as aresult ofearthquakes’ occurrence V e ( I ) is characterized by ratio between the by the ) ischaracterized ratiobetween I . For example, thisindicator is V ulnerability may be estimatedulnerability Bi (I)ofdefinite damage average( ph n thespecialGIS- ( I ) isanindex, I ) at seismic Ai (I)of

5 GEOGRAPHY 6 GEOGRAPHY under study. I consequencesintheregions engineering statistical analysisofstrong earthquakes are onthebasisof usuallyconstructed T y y construction and earthquake-resistant and earthquake-resistant construction damage states to buildings of traditional S worldwide. For instance, E areas earthquake-prone invarious earthquakes recentbuildings behavior during strong which summarize statisticaldataondifferent S information gainedthrough directsurveys. may beusedto compensate for thelackof events are notavailable, scales seismicintensity data on engineering consequences of strong there is nostatisticaldataatall. I damage degrees forother elementsofrisk large valuesofthe of different ofbuildings, types structuresand comprehensive information on the behavior worldwide, there isno strong earthquakes economic andsociallossescausedby the T Reinforced withhighlevel ofERD Reinforced withaverage level ofERD Reinforced withminimumlevel ofERD design (ERD) Reinforced withoutearthquake-resistant Reinforced orconfined Unreinforced withR (brick) Unreinforced (bricks/concrete blocks) M Simple stone A Rubble stone, fieldstone -98 contains information on all of of cale EMS-98containsinformation onall scalesprovideeismic intensity thedescriptions, y y he fragility laws and vulnerability functions functions lawshe fragility andvulnerability imber structures dobe (earth brick) dobe (earth assive stone with intensity 7,8,9). with intensity toconstructed withstandtheearthquakes E7,8,9(designedbuildings types and concrete, frame, large panelandwooden); C,1,2(reinforcedbuildings types Table 1. Comparison of building vulnerability classes according to MMSK-86 and EMS-92 and MMSK-86 to according classes vulnerability building of Table 1. Comparison types accordingtypes to EMS-98 n spite on the fact of great ofgreat n spite onthefact Description ofbuildings’ d and for some countries and for some countries C floors uropean M n the case the n thecase acroseismic acroseismic MMSK-86 andEMS-92scales. be undertaken. accordingtypes to different scalesshould estimationofdifferentthe expert building obtainedfunctions using different scales, T I. intensity ofvarying earthquakes during of their behaviorbuildings with a description T y usually allows: software I visualization methodsatdifferent levels. models, aswellandvulnerability astherisk to establishedforms to beproduced. according report thematic mapsandtext indexes’ whichallows assessment,interface assigned forsoftware hazard andrisk withcorresponding level ofdetails, territory information theconsidered describing developed. study thespecialGISprojectsare usually under forand vulnerability the territory T and n order to produce themapsofrisks o ensureofvulnerability comparability y he section describes detailsofmathematical describes he section ools motion accelerations; intensities (Fig. 1)andpeakground ofearthquake to obtainthedistribution vulnerability for EMS-98 risk T D D D A A C C C B B E F hey includedatabaseswith hey T Vulnerability class able 1gives anexample for

mapping MMSK-86 C-E7 E8 E7 E9 A A A C C B B B T he y y B for laws Fragility 2. Fig. Fig. 3. Laws of earthquake impact on people in B in people on impact earthquake of Laws 3. Fig. probability of damage state value; given than less damage not of probability y y Fig. 1. of seismic presentation Probabilistic population (Fig. 3); on impact and laws of earthquake functions to determine the vulnerability as for theotherelements ofinfrastructure; forcharacteristic theconsidered area, aswell structures ofdifferent (Fig. type 2)whichare for functions thebuildingsand vulnerability to laws thefragility determine and hazard information in Extremum System informationhazard in Extremum 1 – total social losses; 2 – injuries; 3 – fatalities total 3 – injuries; losses;1 – social 2 – 1, states P damage buildings 2, 5 – 3,4, type buildings:type type buildings type (MMSK-86): A all stages from, estimating shaking intensity to to intensity all stagesfrom, estimatingshaking T estimation procedure. oftheprevious steps ofthe the uncertainties andpropagate intheirown uncertainties bring consequencesestimation, andearthquake risk All simulationmodelsanddatabases, usedfor y y y y 2002a, b;2004;Frolova etal., 2003a]: one, strongly depends on [Bonnin et al., and preventivein both modes: emergency T be solved. and thelevel atwhichtheproblem should the details of mathematicalmodels between results. requirements aboutthedetailsofexpected into accounttheenduser be chosentaking databases and mathematical models should assessment atdifferent levels theproper consequencesFor possible earthquake y y y y ools’ calibration israthercomplicated usedat y y y y y y y y he reliability of loss and risk assessment he reliabilityoflossandrisk maps withdifferent details. relevance andreliabilityofseismic hazard mode; for computations in emergency Surveys determination by A errors in strong earthquakes’ parameters lawsfragility ofelementsatrisk; and functions reliability ofvulnerability environment) andhazard sources; (populationandbuilt on elementsatrisk completeness and reliability of databases integrated risks. to compute individualandcollective dueto otherhazards; andrisks seismic risk to compute individualandcollective hazards;co-lateral aswell asand earthquakes, and scenario to estimate damagedueto just occurred source zones maps; possible earthquake according to the maps of seismic zoning or to estimate events damagedueto scenario T he table2shows therelationship T herefore, theprocess of lert S lert eismological

7 GEOGRAPHY 8 GEOGRAPHY details oriented fordetails oriented end-users. withdifferent andvulnerability seismic risk T parameters. step facilitates theproper choiceofcalibration risk. assessing thedamageto different elementsat by EME of possible consequences for each settlement of possibleconsequences for each settlement area anddetaileddescription whole stricken of fatalities, andhomelessfor injuries the with estimates number ofexpected report Such mapsare usuallyaccompanied by text in thesettlementandaverage damagestate. size andcolorstandfor numberofinhabitants in grades ofMMSK-86 scale);signs of different intensities ofshaking field (possibledistribution of different colorpresent themacroseismic epicenter oftheevent by specialsign; isolines T event in on Fig. 4. mode are scale in emergency shown global T mode in emergency Earthquake loss estimation at global level mode andpreventive oneisillustrated. Difference inmaps’ visualizationinemergency of maps’ design andproductionpresented. Visualization quakeEarth Facility Urban C Global he map(Fig. 4)shows thesource of hazard, he section gives he section examplesofthemaps he results assessmentat ofseismicrisk Level ofearthquake ountry orRegional ountry loss estimation V Table 2. Details of mathematical models and the forms of results visualization at different levels different at visualization results of forms the and models mathematical of Details Table 2. isualization of the simulated results at each isualization ofthesimulated results ateach R China, near COM T he example is given for the Gansu he exampleisgiven for theGansu of Russian Federation ways Risk at M Different and analysis of andevent trees”“fault motion andstructuresstrength capability; mation ofdynamicparameters ofground methodsforApplication ofnumerical esti- solving theproblems methodsfortions; Applicationofnumerical Usage ofengineering methodsofcomputa- functions vulnerability Usage ofregional modelsofhazards and models ofhazardsfunctions andvulnerability economic development; Usageofaveraged Usage ofmacro indexes basedoncountries inxian, on July 21, 2013. inxian, on July 21, 2013. Vulnerability W Details ofmodels Levels idely used idely used

available. when source mechanism solution became ofprobableorientation anisotropic field shake axis ( macroseismic ellipsemajorandminorsemi- relationships anddifferent ratiok attenuation NEIC. Different intensity shaking seismological centers: GSRAS,CEPCand fromdepth) wastaken thefollowing alert epicenter, origin time, magnitude, source about theevent parameters (coordinates of mode, 21, 2013inemergency information onJuly computations dueto theearthquake mapsare variants produced. theloss During are usuallymadefor few and many- variants and buildings’ behavior, thelosscomputations attenuation intensity in shaking peculiarities different S parameters by determination earthquake T index.html). to EMDAT (http://www.emdat.be/disaster_list/ 46–150 people, 95fatalitiesaccording reported was estimated by Global numberoffatalities theexpected earthquake, area. I in thestricken for China(Fig. 5),whichincludesthedescriptions T onJuly21,2013. earthquake forvariants losscomputation dueto the NEIC. with source mechanismsolution obtainedby the angleof302°wasaccepted inaccordance aking into accountthediscrepancies in aking ystem impact database database Systemhe GlobalExtremum impact T T able 3)were used, aswell asdifferent able 3shows theexamples ofdifferent T he macroseismic field orientation at he macroseismic at field orientation urveys, regionaleismological Surveys, tern Qualitative andquantitative pat risk; M ferent color Zones ofsettlements)dif- (districts M risk; sponding to different levels oflossand H M risk; sponding to different valuesoflossand H ypsometric layers;ypsometric Isolinescorre layers;ypsometric Isolinescorre easurable indexofdamage, lossand Ways ofvisualization onmaps arks ofdifferentarks colorandsize ofdifferentarks colorandsize n the case of the Gansu n thecaseofGansu xtremum Extremum ystem as System as - - of - Fig. 4. Results of possible loss simulation by Extremum for the July 21, 2013 earthquake in China (variant 5, Table 3): dots are settlements in the stricken area; colour of dots shows the average damage state of building stock (black: total collapse; brown: partial collapse; red: heavy; yellow: moderate; green: slight damage; blue: no damage); figures show the values of expected shaking intensities

9 GEOGRAPHY 10 GEOGRAPHY (pink) and with different intensities I effect. agreement simulated between and observed (Fig.authorities 6)inorder to findthebetter published by the Chinese seismological macroseismic effect compared withobserved System estimationswereExtremum intensity on July21,2013thesimulated by Global with observed ones. I with observed different ofinputdataare variants compared of computation(simulation)according to consequences ofstrong events theresults accumulating thedataon reported By attenuation. intensity ofshaking peculiarities intowas usedto accounttheregional take of more than 100 events for the country, M 3) andShake ( Systemones usingExtremum software values(Fig. intensity shaking 6)withsimulated Figure ofobserved 7shows thecomparison gansu-china-on-july-21-2013). com/2013/07/21/very-strong-earthquake- the mappedfaults(http://earthquake-report. point. or breaking a lotofmisery. and is also responsible strong for shaking very I corresponds to hugedestruction, simulated values of shaking intensity are intensity in valuesofshaking simulated I n thecaseof event onJuly21,2013all no. 12 11 10 7 6 5 4 3 2 9 8 1 Survey GS RAS GS RAS GS RAS T Table 3. Input data for simulation of the consequences of the July 21, July the of 2013 China in event consequences the of simulation for data Table Input 3. USGS USGS USGS USGS CEPC CEIC CEIC CEIC CEIC he maponFig. 6shows isoseists VI (lightpink). T ap software ofPAap software he yellow dotistheepicenter 34,499; 104,243 34,499; 104,243 34,499; 104,243 34,499; 104,243 34,53; 104,21 34,53; 104,21 34,53; 104,21 T 34,5; 104,2 34,5; 104,2 34,5; 104,2 34,5; 104,2 34,5; 104,2 Lat., Log. he red linesonthemapare n the case of the event n thecaseofevent T he zone withI (dark red), VII (dark = VIII GER System. 5.9 (M 5.9 (M 5.9 (M 5.9 (M 6.1 (M 6.1 (M 6.1 (M 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 M = w w w w s s s ) ) ) – to VII – to ) ) ) ) = VIII T able able h, km 9,8 9,8 9,8 9,8 18 20 18 20 20 10 10 10

IASPEI publication[ ofChinain proposed for part theeastern attenuation relationships (equations 2,3) obtained when we use the regional intensity valuesis intensity shaking and observed Relatively goodagreement ofsimulated s =0.56 I =2,617+1,435 m – 1,441ln(R+7,0), Along minoraxis: s =0.49 I =6,045+1,480m –2,081ln(R +25,0), Along majoraxis: variant 5 the values of D variant 5,6,1011and12( variant exceed one grade scale for of intensity all used for losscomputations, D I valuesslightlyabove ones. intensity reported the epicentraldistancesD T reliable lossestimationsto beachieved. are notacceptableaswillallow the gradestwo scale. of intensity intensities isabout simulated antobserved values. observed general underestimated with incomparison n thecaseCEICparameters oftheevent are he exception 5(Fig. isvariant 5, [Shebalin, 1977] IASPEI, 1993 [Shebalin, 1977] astern part IASPEI, 1993Eastern (Shebalin, 1977] IASPEI, 1993 part IASPEI, 1993Eastern [Shebalin, 1977] [Shebalin, 1977] [Shebalin, 1977] IASPEI, 1993 part IASPEI, 1993Eastern equation W W W estern part estern estern part estern estern part estern T he greatest difference of T he P I average Ratio k Ratio ractice..., 1993]. ractice..., 2.25 > 25 km, itgives >25km, 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 uch estimations Such estimations T able 4).For the isequalto 0.1. I max T orientation along faults Angle 302° Angle 302° Angle 302° Angle 302° Angle 302° Angle 302° Angle 302° Angle 302° Angle 302° Angle 302° Angle 302° able 3)for Ellipse do not donot (3) (2) Fig. 5. Fragment of the “Extremum” System impact knowledge base about past events consequences for China

11 GEOGRAPHY 12 GEOGRAPHY Fig. 7. Comparison of simulated shaking intensities for the event on July 21, July on 2013 event the for intensities shaking simulated of 7.Fig. Comparison Fig. 6. The isoseismal map by published the authorities Chinese seismological with application of Extremum and PAGER Systems and reported values reported and PAGER Systems and Extremum of application with for the event on July 21, July on 2013 event the for

DI equation and its regional coefficients; field model: regional attenuation intensity of proper choice of macroseismic importance T 10and11. variants for 5and6,Fig. thevariants 9 –for the intensities andsimulated shaking observed by epicentral distance, frombinned in 5 km Figure 8shows theaverage residuals, I 1.5 and Table 5. Comparison of intensities computed using n the case of variant 3,5and 7( n thecaseofvariant DI s =0.3 DI he exampleofthisevent shows the max average max regional attenuationregional relationships (2 and 3) Variant 3 residuals are binned in 5-kilometer windows and the median residual is plotted by grey dots by grey plotted is residual median the and windows 5-kilometer in binned are residuals residuals are binned in 5-kilometer windows and the median residual is plotted by grey dots by grey plotted is residual median the and windows 5-kilometer in binned are residuals DI s =0,3 DI =–1.5 Variant 5 varies average max

=–1 with observed values of intensity with observed D I =1,0 Table 4. Comparison of intensities computed using CEPC parameters of earthquake earthquake of parameters CEPC using computed intensities of Table Comparison 4. average =–0,1

from grade oneintensity upto D I s =0.3 DI changesfrom 0.2upto 0.3. max average Variant 5 =1.0 Fig. 8. Residuals for the simulated intensities; shaking Fig. 9. Residuals for the simulated intensities; shaking =–0.1 DI DI s =0,3 Variant 6 average max =1,0 with observed values of shaking intensity values of shaking with observed =–0,4 D I DI s =0.2 max average Variant 7 =1.0 T able 5) =–0.6 DI DI s =0,2 Variant 10 average max =1,0 =–0,4 plan aimed at risk reduction.A plan aimedatrisk areas anddevelop thepreventive measures’ 2010” inorder to identify themostvulnerable M T within the Federal of theRussianFederation produced territory Fig. 10 shows maps example of seismic risk preventive mode Seismic risk assessment at country level in reduced significantly. the timeneededfor system calibration to be V SystemExtremum databases(Fig. 5). was basedofthepastevents intheGlobal for the area under study was successful. I T minor semi-axis. andratiokofellipsemajor orientation echnological Risk echnological Risk his event alsoshows theprevious calibration isualization oflosssimulationresults allows anagement intheRussianFederation until DI DI s =0,2 Variant 11 average max =1,0 =–0,3 P rogram “Natural and A ssessment and DI DI s =0,3 Variant 12 average max s inputdata =1,0 =–0,5 t

13 GEOGRAPHY 14 GEOGRAPHY

–5 Fig. 10. Map of individual seismic risk Rs1, 10 /year, for the territory of Russian Federation have been constructed: R seismic zoning maps (scale 1:5 about seismic hazard the setof review are shown onthemapsby different color. and the administrative regions ofthecountry cities andsettlementswere averaged within T = 50( the following respectively,fixed time intervals, of notexceeding for thevaluesofintensity oftime interval exceeding thecalculated for intensity afixed to 10 %( zoning oftheOSR-97A,BandCcorresponding used. individual risk R individual risk the wholewithinP MMSK-86 scaleandtheiraverage height.On of buildingdifferent according types to by averaged settlementsmodels: percent 1998]. L L 0.1–1.0 0.1–1.0 1.0–5.0 1.0–5.0 5.0–50.0 5.0–10.0 50.0–500.0 10.0–30.0 500.0–1,000.0 30.0–100.0 1,000.0–5,000.0 M 100.0–150.0 M sc persons/year km ess than0.1 ess than0.1 ore than150.0 ore than5,000.0 3. Risk ranges,Risk ranges,Risk 10 V alues of seismic risk obtainedfor alues ofseismicrisk separate T –5 T hey arehey themapsofreview seismic he builtenvironment waspresented , 1/year A), 100 (B) and 500 ( A), 5 %(B)and1( Table 6. Values of individual seismic risk and size of zones with different risk levels risk different with zones of size and risk seismic individual of Table Values 6. Table 7. Values of collective seismic risk and size of zones with different risk levels levels risk different with zones of size and risk seismic Table 7. collective of Values % probability T =50 years, or90 %probability s (Fig. R risk 10)andcollective 2 small small moderate moderate average average high high rather high rather high extremely high extremely extremely high extremely Qualitative risk Qualitative risk characteristics characteristics R rogram six maps of rogram sixmapsof s 1, R s C 2, C ) probability of ) probabilityof 000 ) years [S R s 3; 000) were R sc 1, Square ofzones, et ..., et ..., R map R sc map R 2, 2, sc

58.4 15.1 12.7 10.2 3.0 0.4 0.4 53 15 14 – – – 7 7 3 sc s 1, % 1, % earthquakes peryear (mapR earthquakes economic loss to population caused by for theprobabilityoffatalities, and injuries rather high values from negligible onescloseto zerovary upto R seismicrisk Obtained values of collective maps accordinglevels ofindividualseismic risk to T and injuries (mapR and injuries than 100 the probability of fatalities(mapR than 0.1 btained values of individual seismic risk R Obtained valuesofindividualseismicrisk level. bycharacterized highrisk pay attention oftheend-usersto theareas T able 6shows size ofzones with different he color scale is usually chosen in order to he colorscaleisusuallychoseninorder to sc vary from negligible smallones –less vary R s 1, · · Square ofzones, 10 Square ofzones 10 R map R s map R –5 2 andR –5 upto ratherhighvalues – for the probability of fatalities 53.6 14.5 12.0 13.3 5.4 0.5 0.5 0.2 49 17 – 9 8 9 1 7 sc s 2, % 2, % – more than 30 s s 2), more than150 3. Square ofzones, s 3). map R map R 48.8 16.9 15.7 9.6 7.2 0.6 0.6 0.6 46 13 11 11 10 5 2 1 s sc · s 1), more 3, % 10 3, % · –5 10 for for –5 s

15 GEOGRAPHY 16 GEOGRAPHY risk risk T more than 1,000 more risk accordingrisk to mapsR zones with different levels seismic of collective property (map property andnumberofpersons wholosttheir injuries R (map numberoffatalitiesandinjuries expected fatalities (mapR Krasnodarsky kraj Krasnodarsky Kamchatsky kraj Kamchatsky I of I Republic Zabajkalsky kraj Zabajkalsky of Buryatiya Republic ltajsky kraj Altajsky he computed valuesofindividual seismic sc Chechen Republic rkutsk oblast rkutsk Administrative 2) andfor numberoffatalities, expected ngishetiya R unit ofRF s 1 are more than30.0 Table 8. Individual seismic risk R risk seismic Table Individual 8. sc R · 10 1), more than5,000 sc A Urus-M and Nozhaj- Novolaksky I V T Novorossijsk City T T lizovsky rajon Elizovsky helekhovsky rajon Shelekhovsky rajon Sluydyansky rajon Olkhonsky M unzhensky rajon Sunzhensky rajon Nazranovsky Kalarsky rajon Kalarsky I rajon Barguzinsky M rajon Kurumkansky rajon Kabansky P rajon Okinsky T S S P haryshsky rajon Xharyshsky rajon Ust-Kalmansky 3). volginsky rajon volginsky tum-Kalinsky rajon tum-Kalinsky –5 own-resort Gelendzhik own-resort Anapa own-resort uapsinsky rajon uapsinsky unkinsky rajon unkinsky evero-Bajkalsky rajon evero-Bajkalsky oloneshensky rajon oloneshensky etropavlovsky rajon edensky rajon edensky ribajkalsky rajon ribajkalsky M chkhoj- ujsky rajon ujsky algobeksky rajon algobeksky for expected number of for number of expected of municipalregion T able 7 shows size of able 7 shows size of sc artanovsky rajon artanovsky 1, R artanovsky rajon artanovsky Name · Y sc 10 urtovsky 2 andR –5 , 1/year for s 1 for some administrative units of the Russian Federation Russian the of units administrative some 1 for · 10 sc 3. –5 for for Population, persons 130,997 129,066 313,307 104,439 167,095 121,079 53,821 38,378 83,604 64,262 63,876 42,331 52,038 94,254 22,738 42,665 14,376 58,340 11,218 21,778 26,840 13,181 11,915 11,728 14,450 5,888 9,998 9,600 5,395 9,848 values of individual seismic risk R values ofindividualseismicrisk Chechen Republic. aswell asforregionkraj, Krasnodar and I ofBuryatiya, Republic Baikal, near lake obtained for Kamchatka, values of individual seismic risk R values of individual seismicrisk Osetiya. and Northern area, ofAltaj, Republic all administrative divisionswithinSakhalin Federation. some administrative areas of the Russian

density, persons/km Population 201.53 375.22 170.16 134.65 85.57 40.14 85.05 30.42 80.03 77.67 2.94 53.7 1.57 8.25 0.57 0.17 1.23 1.15 4.32 15.8 0.21 0.45 1.85 0.24 1.73 7.36 6.28 2.79 1.7 76

T able 8shows the rkutsk region,rkutsk Altaj 2 T R yva, Dagestanyva, s 1,1 T Seismic risk risk Seismic he highest · 10 37.7 38.3 40.0 39.8 36.8 33.3 31.8 31.6 32.5 60.4 31.7 39.8 46.7 34.8 31.3 34.2 55.1 43.7 46.1 44.3 30.4 45.0 47.6 43.2 49.6 42.7 33.4 31.7 43.5 30.2 –5 , 1/year s s 3 are 1 for characteristics ofthe seismichazardcharacteristics indexes: identification ofthequantitative was implemented to therisk determine & Frolova, 2003a; et al., 2006; Frolova et al., 2010; Frolova, 2010;Frolova etal., 2003b; Frolova 2002b; Bonnin&Frolova, 2004;Bonnin& T D Siberian provided by theI intensities’1998] andtheshaking matrixes seismic zoning oftheOSR-97A,BandC[S were used. ofdataaboutseismichazards types level two andtheChitaoblast ofBuryatiya the Republic maps for thepopulationofI level. A averaged estimations obtained at country T are created. MMSK-86 scaleandtheiraverage height) building ofdifferent according types to averaged settlementsmodels(percent of large settlements are verifiedandupdated are used. intensities’ matrixes for thearea understudy 500,000 or 1:200,000), as well as the shaking regional detailedseismiczoning (scale 1: the mapsofreview (scale1:5,000,000)and of risk (moreof risk than1 forconstructed withhighlevel theterritories areRegional mapsofseismicrisk usually at regionaland mapping level Seismic risk and vulnerability assessment regional level. isneededforinventory assessmentat risk information onhazard level andbuildings identified ( with suchdetailsallows theregions to be visualization and theirimplementation.Risk planningofpreventiveterritorial measures Such mapsare usedfor creating schemesof ofbuiltenvironment.and amortization territory seismic hazard level for thecountry into accountupdated estimationsof taking 10–15yearsare usuallyproduced every S o construct theregionalo construct R seismicrisk eismic risk mapsoftheRussian Federationeismic risk he following procedure [Bonnin et al., s inputdataaboutseismic hazard T epartment ofRAS. epartment he builtenvironment for citiesand T T hey arehey the set ofmaps of review able 8),where more detailed nstitute of theEarth’s arionov et Larionov al., 2003b] · 10 –5 ) inorder to verify rkutsk oblast, oblast, rkutsk arionov Larionov rust, Crust, et ..., et ..., s 1 risk valuesR risk For ofsettlementstheseismic themajority the map. scale isusedto represent bothelementson different sizes and colors). more than1,000shown by symbols (circles of for settlements with number of inhabitants shown by “hypsometric” contours, andrisk with numberofinhabitantslessthan1,000, for elements:risk includes two settlements T intensities’hazard andshaking matrixes. produced usingthemapofreview seismic oblast and the Chitinskaya of Buryatiya maps for the examples of individual seismic risk zoningexamples ofindividualseismicrisk R were summarized. Fig. 11 and 12 show the valuesobtainedforrisk individualunitsites located inthecenter oftheunit. coordinates were represented by apoint units,were andtheir dividedinto elementary social lossesfor large towns andcitiesthey settlement. For computationofexpected andperone yeartime period for each of theprobabilityfatalitiesperdefinite fatalities for eachsettlement;computation of possible sociallosses –thedistribution computation of the intensity; of shaking buildings ofdifferent for values types various fordamage states probabilitydistribution for each settlement; computation ofthe (Fig. 14). presented as circle (Fig. 13) and bar charts than 1,000.P and towns withnumberof inhabitantsmore forless than1,000andvulnerability cities for settlements with number of inhabitants elements: percent ofdifferent damagestates zoning OSR-97Bisused.M the mapofreview (scale1:5,000,000)seismic C formaps ofseismicvulnerability theNorthern Fig. 13–15presents theexamplesofregional considered area. the for high areseismic risk still rather ( obtained withtheuseofmapOSR-97 intensities’ matrixes are lessthanthevalues T he regional zoning mapsofrisk (Fig. 11–12) aucasus. able 9).Onthe whole, the values of A s input data about seismic hazard s 1 obtained using the shaking 1 obtainedusingtheshaking I rkutskaya oblast, the Republic oblast, the Republic rkutskaya hysical vulnerability V hysical vulnerability T he “hypsometric” aps include two aps includetwo T hen the ph ( I ) is s 1

17 GEOGRAPHY 18 GEOGRAPHY S Gusinoozersk Shelekhov Angarsk Chita Ulan-de I T Bajkalsk S Kyakhta Sludyanka rkutskк oksimo everobajkalsk elenginsk of settlement Table 9. Values of individual seismic risk R risk seismic Table individual of 9. Values Name Republic ofBuryatiya Republic I I Chita oblast ofBuryatiya Republic I Republic ofBuryatiya Republic I ofBuryatiya Republic ofBuryatiya Republic I ofBuryatiya Republic rkutsk oblast rkutsk oblast rkutsk oblast rkutsk rkutsk oblast rkutsk oblast rkutsk Administrative unit of theRussian Federation Fig. 11. Fig. for some cities and towns of the Baikal region Baikal the of towns and cities some for

Seismic risk map using the maps OSR-97 thousands persons s and maps OSR-97 OSR-97 intensities’ shaking matrixes maps and 1 using Population, 247 583 300 367 48 28 14 19 12 17 18 27 R s 1 usingmatrices, 10 –5 72.25 58.92 60.51 14.2 20.5 17.2 19.1 13.1 17.8 65.4 78.2 0.9 1/year maps, 10 R s 1 usingOSR-97 56.55 61.24 56.55 28.28 28.3 61.2 30.6 6.51 28.3 42.1 61.2 56.6 –5 1/year cost of their construction forcost oftheir construction settlements the costofbuildings repair andtheinitial elements: ratio between also includes two A of theirconstruction. cost ofbuildingsrepair and theinitialcost by the which ischaracterized ratiobetween vulnerability vulnerability Fig. 15shows themapofeconomic these settlementsare notsufficient. conclusion that the preventive measures in some settlements. damage states equalto 3–5isratherhighfor maps give thatthepercent anevidence of people (Fig. 15). states whichresult inestimationofhomeless into account3damage asittakes evacuation decisionaboutpopulation and for taking and implementationatregion level (Fig. 13) for preventive measure plans development M aps of physical vulnerability mayaps ofphysical beused vulnerability V e ) for the Northern C (I) for theNorthern Fig. 12. Fig. T V his fact allows making a allows making his fact isual analysisofthese

Seismic risk map using matrixes theintensities’ shaking s previous maps, it aucasus, of damage states d T figures. of inhabitantsmore than1,000isshown by the ratiofor citiesand towns withnumber is shown by zones ofdifferent colorsand with numberofinhabitantslessthan1,000 photo panoramasofsettlements. analysis of high-resolution space images and orby ajoint be verifiedby visual inspection data on built environment should inventory settlement territory shouldbecompiled. settlement territory of all, themapsofseismicmicrozoning ofthe First additional studyshouldbeundertaken. allow settlementsto beidentifiedwhen andvulnerability Regional mapsofseismicrisk C in theNorthern vulnerability vulnerability environment and average values of economic ables 10–11 show the average values V e (I) for theadministrative areas aucasus. average ( I ) to build T he

19 GEOGRAPHY 20 GEOGRAPHY damage states d states damage survive may which settlements in buildings of percent area: Krasnodar and Federation Russian the of region Federal Caucasus Northern the for map vulnerability physical the of 13.Fig. Fragment the Russian Federation and Krasnodar area: percent of buildings in settlements which may survive survive may which settlements in buildings of percent area: Krasnodar and Federation Russian the = 3, 4, 5 in the case of earthquakes according to the seismic hazard map OSR-97B: OSR-97B: map hazard seismic the to according earthquakes of case the 5in 4, d=3, states damage Fig. 14. Fragment of the physical vulnerability map for the Northern Caucasus Federal region of of region Federal Caucasus Northern the for map vulnerability physical the of 14.Fig. Fragment light blue – no damage; blue – light damage; green – moderate; yellow – heavy; heavy; moderate; yellow – green – damage; light blue – damage; no blue – light light blue – no damage; blue – light damage; green – moderate; yellow – heavy; heavy; moderate; yellow – green – damage; light blue – damage; no blue – light = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 in the case of earthquakes according to the seismic hazard map OSR-97B: map hazard seismic the to according earthquakes of case the 5in 4, 3, =1, 2, brown – partial collapse; pink –total collapse; pink collapse partial brown – brown – partial collapse; pink –total collapse; pink collapse partial brown – Krasnodar kraj kraj Krasnodar Krasnodar kraj kraj Krasnodar Republic ofDagestan Republic Republic ofDagestan Republic Republic ofA Republic Republic ofA Republic Republic ofI Republic Republic ofI Republic Kabardino-Balkar Republic Republic Kabardino-Balkar Kabardino-Balkar Republic Republic Kabardino-Balkar Republic Republic Karachaevo- Karachaevo- Osetiya – Alaniya ofNorth Republic Republic of North Osetiya –Alaniya ofNorth Republic tavropol kraj Stavropol kraj tavropol kraj Stavropol kraj hechen Republic Chechen Republic hechen Republic Chechen Republic Administrative unit Administrative unit Table 10. Average damage states to buildings and in structures the administrative units ngushetiya ngushetiya herkessk Cherkessk herkessk Republic Republic Cherkessk figures – ratio between the cost of building repair and the initial cost initial the construction its and of repair cost the building of ratio between figures – dygeya dygeya Table 11. Average in values the of administrative economic vulnerability units Fig. 15. Fragment map of economic in vulnerability relative units: Population, persons 5,404,273 2,963,918 2,794,508 1,346,438 446,406 453,010 858,397 469,837 703,977 Population, 5,404,273 2,963,918 2,794,508 1,346,438 persons 446,406 453,010 858,397 469,837 703,977 Population density, Population density, persons/km persons/km 124.86 124.86 71.59 58.96 57.29 68.84 32.91 88.14 42.24 86.05 71.59 58.96 57.29 68.84 32.91 88.14 42.24 86.05 2 2 Average value ofeconomic vulnerability V Average damage states d 0. 9 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.3 0.7 2.2 3.9 3.1 4.5 3.5 3.6 4.7 2.1 3.9 average e (I (I ) )

21 GEOGRAPHY 22 GEOGRAPHY lympic Games C such astheOlympicGames bycharacterized highlevel ofseismichazard, of large investment projectsinareas P prediction for urbanizedarea, suchas I Seismic risk assessment atlevel urban ity Big S City n the case of medium-term earthquake earthquake n thecaseofmedium-term etropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, orinthecase Fig. 17. Fragment of photo panorams from http://maps.yandex.ru/ for City Big Sochi, Darvina street Darvina Sochi, Big City for http://maps.yandex.ru/ from 17. panorams Fig. photo of Fragment Fig. 16. Fragment of high-resolution space image for City Big Sochi, Kirova street Kirova Sochi, Big City for image space high-resolution of 16. Fragment Fig. ochi, the maps of seismic risk omplex in by building inspection is undertaken inorder isundertaken by buildinginspection andtheiraverage height)orbuilding district according to MMSK-86 scalewithincity (percent ofbuildingsdifferent types models and updated averaged districts city T seismic microzing (scale1:10,000)are used. data aboutseismichazard themapsof are for constructed definite cities. he building inventory forhe building inventory cities is verified A s input the RussianFederation. is one of the regionsmost seismically active of ity is used.City T level theP at urban A inventory. for verificationdataon builtenvironment mapping may beapplied(Fig. 16and17) of highresolution spaceimagesandweb- T informationto abouteach collect building. ogether with land inspection, decoding s an example of seismic risk computations computations s anexampleofseismicrisk Zone index AV VUL AVS FZ9 FZ8 PET 1 – VUL; 2 – PET; 2 – trough VUL; AVG;1 – 3 – AVS; deep-water Ocean 4 – Pacific the FZ9; of axis FZ8; 5 – 7 – 6 – G for the Petropavlovsk – Kamchatsky city due to events in different zones VOZ zones different in events to due city Kamchatsky Petropavlovsk – the for he Kamchatka P he Kamchatka 6.8–7.0; 3000–30000 6.8–7.0; 2000–20000 7.8–7.9; 3003000 9.0–8.5; 100500 8.4–8.25; 50500 7.8–7.9; 30100 M period, years etropavlovsk-Kamchatsky etropavlovsk-Kamchatsky Fig. 18. Location of scenario earthquakes’ source zones: source earthquakes’ scenario of 18. Location Fig. T max Table 12. Expected social losses and individual risk R risk individual and losses social Table 12. Expected he land inspection was was he landinspection ; Return ; Return eninsula territory eninsula territory Seismic Individual Individual Seismic 30.0–300.0 Risk, 10 Risk, 10.0–45.0 1.0–10.0 8.0–50.0 4.0–15.0 1.0–8.0 values ofM source zones ( possible earthquake Russian in thecity. to verifythedataoneachbuilding undertaken different T given in possible events inthesezones are reached for anevent inzone AVS for the highestvaluesofrisk population –5 he results of seismic risk computation for he results computation for ofseismicrisk T A able 12. Fatalities, persons Z zonesVO ( cademy of T he I 7,260–15,460 5,590–12,860 max 850–2,610 570–1,760 220–810 44–290 nstitute ofP and return periods for the for andreturn periods the Expected LossesExpected s 1 S T ciences, identified six ciences, identified six able 12) show that able 12)show that arth, hysics oftheEarth, Injuries, persons Z (Fig.VO 18)are 16,180–33,120 12,580–32,310 2,450–8,150 1,650–6,330 250–1 320 720–3,270 Z). VO T he he

23 GEOGRAPHY 24 GEOGRAPHY injuries =8,000 persons.injuries losses:fatalities = 2,600persons; expected intobe implemented account whichtake planningthemeasures term should short =33,000persons.15,000 persons;injuries For into fatalities= account:expected be taken losses should planning maximum expected implemented stages. intwo For longterm reductionshouldbedeveloped andrisk plans and preventive measures aimed at conclusions were drawn thatprograms, by values,characterized low risk the following of a scenario event inzoneof ascenario PET lossesareand maximumexpected typical inzone are AVSCity related to earthquakes forvalues ofrisk P T level. detailed differentiation valuesaturban ofrisk of ground conditions, allows to getmore into accounttheinfluence as well taking zones asinputdataonseismichazard level, ( Fig. 19 Fig. T aking into account the fact thatmaximum into accountthefact aking able 12,Fig. 19).Usingpossiblesource . Individualseismic risk R 1 – <2 1 – · 10 –3 ; 2 – 5 ; 2 – etropavlovsk-Kamchatsky etropavlovsk-Kamchatsky · 10 6 – 1 6 – –4 in zone AVS; values of risk for city districts: districts: city for risk of AVS; values zone in

÷ 2 s · zonation for the Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky City for a scenario event event ascenario for City Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky the for zonation 10 · 10 –5 –3

÷ 5 , whichis ; 3 – 2 ; 3 – · 10 –5 · 10 ; 7 – 5 ; 7 – –4

÷ 5 · 10 · 10 –6 shown. assessmentatdifferentrisk levels hasbeen about seismic hazardofseismic onambiguity I confidential sources ofinformation. lackofaccess to by seismological surveys; rapid determinations of event parameters on and technological hazards; uncertainties natural andothersecondary earthquakes for different causedby elements atrisk reliability ofregional functions vulnerability attenuation intensity relationships; shaking and hazard sources; reliabilityofregional (population and built environment)at risk and reliability ofdatabases on elements completeness and otherelementsatrisk; intensity, behavior ofbuilding, population models usedfor simulationshaking onmathematical the following: uncertainty al. are 2011].Amongthem,themainfactors [Bonnin &Frolovafactors 2010;Frolova et computations strongly dependsonmany orlossshows thatthereliabilityofrisk C n thepaperinfluenceofinputdata –4 onclusions

÷ 1 ; 4 – 1 ; 4 – · 10 –5 · T 10 ; 8 – >5 ; 8 – he practice of crisis management ofcrisis he practice –4

÷ 2 · · 10 10 –4 –6 ; 5 – 5 ; 5 – · 10 –5

÷ 1 · 10 –4 ;

13. 12. 11. 10.

participation in earthquake risk estimation risk inearthquake participation account thepresent situationtheexpert process are numerous andlarge. parameters estimation used inseismicrisk ontheOn thewhole, uncertainties References 7. 8. 6. 9. 4. 5. 2. 1. 3. pp. 145–152. mation AppliedFor P Frolova A.,Larionov N.,Nikolaev Karnik Karnik M Frolova N.,Larionov C L quake Frolova N.,Larionov TIEMS2007 C hazard and near real risk time loss estimations due to strong earthquakes. Frolova N.,Larionov S mology, Switzerland, Geneva, 3–8S And L Frolova N.,KozlovM.,Larionov Fournier d’ Geneva P Geneva vances inNaturaland casus. I C Earthquake Frolova N.,Larionov from Emergencies”, EmercomM ofRussia, T Bonnin J., Frolova N.(2004)NearReal- A cy M cy Bonnin J. &Frolova N.(2010)GlobalSystems L For Earthquake C sembly, I Genoa, A Bonnin J., Frolova N.,Larionov P Geneva Boissonnade A.C&ShahH(1984) arthquake L System Applicationfor Operative Earthquake Bonnin J., Frolova N.,KozlovM.,Larionov he State of ofia Antipolis, France. onference, Beijing, China. ommission (ESC2004),P ssembly, I Genoa, lert S ssessment withAlert ode, I ode. I oss A V n: n: HumanC xisting Recommendations and D it (1984),ExistingRecommendations oss EstimationI apers, vol. 9, no. 30,pp. 3–7. apers, vol. 9,no. 32,pp. 223–254. P Albe (1982) n P roc. oftheFirst E ssessment. I T onference, onsequences AndS roc. I XV rt. I he Art. taly. taly. arthquakes: P asualties inEarthquakes: V V V V ., BonninJ. (2010),DataBasesUsedI arthquake C ., BonninJ. (2011)Earthquake ., BonninJ., Rogozhin E.,Starovojt O ., BonninJ. (2007)Simulation-basedinformation systems for multi- ossible L n: P nternational C nternational T An n: P echnological Hazards Research, vol. 29,Springer, 107–123. T mergency M n Emergency urveys Application.I eismological Surveys rogir, Croatia. otsdam, Germany. roc. oftheXXIX A General Approach to roc. ofSE-40EEE,Skopje- uropean C T aking into aking oss A V V ., et al. (2002a) Reliability ofP ., etal. (2002a)Reliability V arthquake Risk Risk ., etal. System (2003b).Extremum for Earthquake eismic Risk M eismic Risk ., etal. (2003a)AnalysisofReal eptember 2006,P ssessment. I onference “P T eismic ime L arthquake Engineering andS onference onEarthquake arthquake Risk Risk Earthquake ode: oscow, pp. 195–203. acceptability. estimation oftheobtainedresults andtheir maps ofdifferent detailsfacilitate expert assessmentontheand vulnerability vital. is very V oss A . etal. of (2002b),Experience “Extremum” V rogress inM W apping: C ulnerability andI ulnerability oss A n: P arthquake, P enchuan Earthquake, rotection ofP ssessment Due Ohrid, M efinitions onD isasterI ssembly ofE roc. ofthe ssessment. I mergency asualties Estimationsinmergency aper Number: 1266. aper Number: M ase StudyFor hepkunas L.(2006)S ., Chepkunas n anagement, V n odelling andM W isualization ofseismicrisk acedonia. n: P oss EstimationI arthquake I ossible Earthquake orlwide Systems Fororlwide - Earth opulation and TIEMS 2003C nsurance Studies// roc. ESCA 28General n: P T uropean S T arthquakes: o Strong Earthquakes: arthquake I ime Earthquake roc. ESC 28General T Eng. he Northen C he Northen roc. nsurance, itigation. A truct., vol.Struct., 4, eismological n Emergen- TIEMS2010 onference, T erritories erritories I n: cenario cenario mpact mpact P nfor T T roc. eis- au- he he d- s- -

25 GEOGRAPHY 26 GEOGRAPHY 14. arionov larionov 15. m 18. larionov 16. arionov S.,Larionov sushchev 23. larionov 17. 19. hebalin N., Gekhman A.,Shestoperov G.(1986)D shebalinN.,Gekhman 22. 20. s 21. t 24. uNISDR 25. Karnik Karnik ral Hazards A inRussia, volume 6: NaturalRisks UNESCO Risk, Earthquake technology application. niversity ofP Russian University and M House “Kruk”, M M mode atglobalscale. P ers andP Ranguelov R.,2011.NaturalHazards andA Ranguelov – Nonlinearities W C within the Federal P cil onS scale(MMSK-86)seismic intensity onthebasesof MSK-64 C scale and scaleofJoint Joint I Joint A Risk Drinov, S P standards andrules(1998 –SNi “C ter.consilium.europa.eu/pdf/en/10/st17/st17833.en10.pdf C M 2010 M IASPEI andESC.284p. minology/UNISDR-terminology-2009-eng.pdf he P et ofreview seismiczoning mapsOSR-97A,B, for Candothermaterials C ouncil onS onference “P oscow, 1986(inRussian). ayer-Rosa, itigating NaturalDisasters: P xtremum Systemith Extremum Application. P arthquake HazardA ofEarthquake ractice ssessment and M nstitute ofP anagement, P V – 73. Report onscientificresearch study Engineering – 73.Report eismology andEarthquake oscow, EMER lgermissen S.T ., Algermissen T ofia, 237P V V lanners. UNDR V isaster Risk Reduction, 2009.http://www.unisdr.org/eng/ter Reduction, onDisaster Risk erminology ushchev S.,Ugarov., Sushchev A.,Frolova N.(2003b),S ., Frolova N.(2003a),P stimation of earthquake consequences in emergency .I., Frolova consequencesinemergency N.I.(2006)Estimationofearthquake Vladimir arthquake Engineering, A eismology andEarthquake rotection ofP oscow, pp. 120–131.(inRussian). hysics oftheEarth. . ublishing House “Kruk”, M COM ofRF. M.: FGU rogram 0.74.03, number of state registration 01814003271, Joint S eople Friendship, 2006,pp. 138–140.(inRussian). chenk, Robin K. K. Robin chenk, V roc. ofAll-RussianC O apping Guidelinesfor D isasterM ., Frolova N.(2010)S I n: Natural . New . New , P . (1978)S aris, pp. 11–47. opulation and henomena, Y eculiarities of seismic vulnerability estimations. ofseismicvulnerability I eculiarities ork: UN,1991.164p. ork: Hazards in Russia, volume 6: Natural Risks eismic Zoning: onstruction in earthquake prone areas”. inearthquake onstruction M roc. I oftheXV ssessment (1993). M VNII GOChS(FT cGuire, E onf. “RISK-2006”, M ffects and Options. A T eismic Risk A eismic Risk erritories underEmergencies”,erritories M oscow, pp. 209–231.(inRussian). ssessment and M A vi evelopment ofimproved version of Shapira. T nternational S nternational he A cademy ofS s), 2010,p. 327–346(I eismic risk assessmentwithG IS- eismic risk anagement, 2010.http://regis- T ssessment AndM echnical C ssessment andM E ssessment. A oscow, P dited by Robin K. M dited by K. Robin anagement, M cientific andP anual for P ciences oftheUSSR, oordinators: Dieter ublishing Houseof cad. HouseM. onstructions onstructions A anagement itigation of n Russian). P ssessment olicy M olicy ay 18–20, ublishing n: Natu- ractical ractical oscow: oscow: cGuire, oun- ak - - Nina I.Frolova Nina , military cartographer, Aleksander N.Ugarov, military hascontributed is (honorary) fullprofessor withI the is(honorary) Jean Bonnin Valery I.Larionov to hascontributed research onemergency and risk reduction, as well as activities ofUNDR reduction,aswelland risk asactivities earthquake preparedness since1985. earthquake of C ongoing programs ondisaster reduction. distinguished professional leadershipandpersonalcommitmentto dams. I resistance ofhigh on theseismicloadassessmentandearthquake Dr. Frolova, Nina alongwithothers, theUSSRprize in1984for herwork safety. tosimulation ofterrain meetthechallengesofpopulation well asto the development oftools andmethodsofmathematical sensing non-traditional materials for the mapping purposes, as geographical information systems and application of remote SituationResearchwith Extreme C and decisionmakers. to improveby scientists/engineers thedialogue between trying and thecorresponding response andsociety ofcivilauthorities management risk natural disasters (especially theearthquakes) Since afew years to hehascontributed topics related to major 2004 CODATA I geophysics. Hehasbeenawardedusage ofdatainsolidEarth in to theproblems posedby ofhisactivity devoted alarge part P situations. Russian Federal system for and monitoring forecast of emergency prizes in1999and2001for ondevelopment thework ofthe government awarded Dr. potentially dangerous facilities. safety of andindustrial ofrisks tocontributed thetheory management andresponse situations;hehas to emergency organizationmanagement of naturalandtechnological of risk; response since 1972. H arth, S hysics oftheEarth, enter, I S ciences. n 2005 she wasawarded by UNESCO the GARD M nstitute of Environmental (IGE),RussianA Geoscience he has contributed to studies on earthquake hazards hazards She has contributed to studies on earthquake nternational P nternational isaseniorscientificresearcher withS trasbourg University, France. He has V e is an expert in assessment ande is an expert aleri Larionov,aleri alongwithothers, the rize for inthefield. hiscontributions enter to research inthefieldof T he S T he RussianFederation oviet ofM O , UNESCO inistries awarded awarded inistries eismological eismological nstitute of R on , IDNDRon cademy cademy edal for edal for

27 GEOGRAPHY 28 GEOGRAPHY colloque marocano-allemand deM colloque marocano-allemand (éds.): va être publiéparBrahimElFasskaoui & Andreas Kagermeier sensations” a (parfois comme vacancesdites “actives” ou “à cadre général du tourisme culturel, compris des offres sefaitdansle decesecteur jamais soncaractère de “niche”... Laplupart constante, mêmes’il neperdra sansdoute de l’économie enaugmentation touristique constitue depuisdesannéesunsecteur qu’abandonnés (ou decequ’il enreste), dire lavisite tantactuels desites industriels D-50923 Köln, Allemagne; e-mail: [email protected] Köln,Allemagne; e-mail: D-50923 deGéographie,Institut Université de Cologne, Albertus-Magnus-Platz, SoyezDietrich 1 développement deremarquables T régionale etderéputation. matière depolitiquestructurelle, d’économie peuvent avoir deseffets très positifs en aujourd’hui, car de tels flux touristiques mais aussipourcellesencore enactivité les régions dites industrielles “historiques”, croissante non seulement pour importance une pris ontdésormais industriel tourisme demande quisesontdéveloppées dansle classiques. L reposl’aspect etdétente desvacancesplus pédagogiques), parnette oppositionà p. 219–225(P Humaines, Université M de 43). A Résumé et and Situation Industrial É Le

out récemment, on a assisté au C e texte est une version légèrement modifiée d’un article qui estune versione texte légèrement article modifiée d’un T tats rier ( rier vec tous mesremerciements très cordiaux àmescollègues P

atrimoine et tourisme culturelatrimoine au défis tourisme Allemagne) etdeM . ublications delaFaculté desL

challenges L e tourisme industriel, c’est-à- es formes del’offre etdela des oulay Ismaïl, S eknès (M eknès 1 1 ssociées àdesobjectifs lieux, point , weaknesses eknès 2014 –M eknès aroc). érie A érie T industriel M ettres etdesS aroc. ctes deC ctes ourism A ctes du 9ème ctes eknès 2014, eknès olloques, ciences – – les pointssuivants: sur enAllemagne,industriel l’analyseportera de l’offre etdelademandedansletourisme Après unaperçu del’état desschémas actuel nationaletmêmeinternational.tourisme l’attirance exercée parlessites classiquesdu n’ont pasàcraindre lacomparaisonavec par exemple enA que danslesnouveaux pays industrialisés, culturel mondial parcs/musées thèmatiques, patrimoine « historiques », flux touristiques,industrielles MOTS-CLES: (or remains), theirhistorical hasbeena plants industrial and historic both active E d’ industrialisés liés àl’industrie) tantdanslesvieuxpays (Brand destinations touristiques dites “industrielles” Abstract – – in forme deBrand les innovations (notamment sous la pation) deguerre,périodes d’annexion etd’occu les alisation (notammentconcernant controversés et sombres del’industri le passagesoussilencedesaspects l’industrie automobile). faibles en W Germany

orlds ou parcs/muséesorlds à thème

I le tourisme culturel,le tourisme lesrégions ndustrial tourism, i.e. tourism, ndustrial visiting Allemagne urope et d’ W sie. Nombre d’entre eux orlds, parexemple dans

mérique du NordAmérique

: : : conceptuel qu’empirique etéconomique, pluridisciplinaire. S La notionetlefaitdu“tourisme”sont heritage thematic parks/museums, cultural world regions, industrial and active flows, tourist WORDS: KEY – – focus oftheanalysis: Germany, the following points will form the in tourism supply anddemandinindustrial A visitor numbers. sitesindustrial already have impressive andafew tourism, international leading classical destinationsfor nationaloreven fear of with the attractiveness comparison A in ofE countries emerged both in the old industrialised Brand destinations (industrial tourismRecently, industrial remarkable and reputations. for policy, structural regional economies positive tourism can provide stimuli very regions, industrial and active assuch are ofgrowing significance both for historic that have tourism developed inindustrial holiday. contrast to thetraditionalrelaxingmarked associated with educational aims), both in oradventurousas active (and tourism alsomarketed isoften and inthiscontext the generalheadingofculturaltourism, character... to lose its unlikely is nevertheless “niche” growing for intourism sector years, but Introduction – – sia. M fter a brief overview ofthecurrent state of overview abrief fter Newly IndustrialisingCountriesNewly /NICs, e.g. in automobile industry). Brand of so-called I times of war, annexationand occupation) (especially in ofindustrialisation aspects Suppression ofcontroversial anddark nnovations (particularly intheform nnovations (particularly any ofthese destinations neednot T he forms of supply and demand T oday itisgenerally offered under merica and America urope andNorth cultural tourism, historiccultural tourism, on intérêt, tant W orlds, e.g. inthe W orlds) haveorlds) le repos, le changementetl’inspiration de toute enroute évidence pourchercher eneffet,tourisme; desgenssemet lamajorité spécifiques desdifférentes formes de ce quiétaitperçu comme les déclencheurs à parrapport souvent vuesencontradiction ou pratique. A l’attention, qu’elle soitd’ordre scientifique qui les caractérisent n’ont pas retenu et devoyages ainsiquel’offre et lademande P genre devisites etdevoyages. quotidiennes etrécréativesactivités parce de latechnique”, ontété très tôt intégrés aux très souvent considérés comme des “miracles professionnel nereliait àcesobjets. C l’attention mêmedevisiteurs qu’aucun intêrêt retenu, depuisledébutdel’industrialisation, le cadre activité d’une industrielle, ont ou des cités dans canaux ouvrières) érigés infrastructures (comme desponts, des oudesbâtimentset des sites industriels C Shaw, W pièces par le tourisme [cf. entre autres marqués, voire même créés detoutes la création depaysages profondément cas extrêmes, nousavons puassister à et surlemarché dutravail p.e.). Dansles effets (changements dansl’environnement développement infrastructurel p.e.) et des des base(paysages naturels etculturels p.e.), déplacement; ils’agit doncdesdonnés de l’espace et les formes les plusdiverses du entre tourisme se focalise sur le rapport qui fassentl’unanimité. d’élaborer desdéfinitionsetprocédés s’agit difficultés enrésultent lorsqu’il des objectifstrès d’importantes variés; loisirs etautourisme s’opèrent doncavec scientifiques desproblématiques liéesaux Hopfinger,L [2004]. Steinecke comme p.e. celui brossé par Becker, jeter unregard surlestableauxspécifiques différentes [pours’en convaincre, ilsuffitde d’orientationscompte-tenu pratiquestrès disciplines scientifiques, mais aussi est grand dupointdevuenombreuses endant longtemps, cesformes d’excursions ertes, desélémentsdepaysages telsertes, que activités illiams 2004]. illiams (mobilité desvoyageurs et u contraire, ellesontété La géographie du es approches es sites,

29 GEOGRAPHY 30 GEOGRAPHY Angleterre, a trouvé un écho sur le continent de l’archéologie industrielle, développée en 2007],deuxièmementl’approcheSteinecke pour la géographie du tourisme, cf. s’estomper [àpropos desconséquences et culture quotidienne a commencéà longtemps demiseentre culture élevée ci-dessous). l’industrie àlaculture: “I nette enestlenéologisme allemandmariant points devuetraditionnels, etlapreuve laplus à unnetchangementdespratiqueset mené dans le dernier tiersdu20 mené dansledernier liéeslesunesdesautres a mais pourtant La convergence d’évolutions très différentes digne d’être relevée. UN ESCOde l’ depuis2001,estuneexception Zollvereincharbon à l’entrée del’anciennemine principale l’on peut lire sur un panneau d’information que allemand“industrielle Kulturlandschaft”) même engéographie. C l’incompréhension etreste encore inusité, cultivé industriel”s’est à longtemps heurté Fehn, D allemand “Kulturlandschaftspflege”, la ‘conservation despaysages cultivés”, en et l’essor par pris, enAllemagne surtout, l’industrialisation [cf. àcesujetl’importance d’espace rural indemnedesconséquencesde dans unelarge mesure, commesynonyme concept de “paysage cultivé” aété compris, allemand “Kulturgeographie”). M de recherche delagéographie humaine(en créés, etsont doncobjets cultivés parl’homme P touristiques. commedestinations les paysages industriels était donchorsdequestion “concevoir” étaient incapablesdefaire bonménage, il ou sesvacances. “I l’on espéraittrouver durantsontemps libre monde diamétralementopposéàceque était d’ailleurs souvent le cas), donc d’un de bruit,saleté etdemaladie(ce qui industriels, étaientaucontraire synonymes sites industriels, etencore pluslespaysages “beaux”, “typiques”ou “spectaculaires”. dans despaysages naturels etculturels ourtant, ces paysages industriels ontété cespaysages industriels ourtant, enecke, 1997].L enecke, Premièrement, ladichotomie XII, ndustrie” et “tourisme” e terme de e terme “paysage P atrimoine mondial mondial atrimoine ndustriekultur”(cf. ndustriekultur”(cf. e terme (ene terme ème S ais le chenk, chenk, siècle L es paysages industriels en activité oudésaffectés enactivité paysages ...” industriels par dessystèmes etdes des visiteurs extérieurs déclenchées parlaforce exercée d’attraction sur “...de telles formes demobilité spatiale, modifiées enfonction d’objectifs particuliers: la littérature des internationale versions largement valable, mêmesil’on trouve dans datantde1986resteindustriel aujourd’hui Une première définition dutourisme terme discipline “géographie dutourisme”. pournotredes objetsdecuriosité sous- industriel.tourisme P destinations touristiques, c’est-à-dire d’un Nombre de ces sites sont devenus des plusrestreintsterme de “patrimoine industriel”. industrielle”, quiinclutaussilaréalité etle contemporains de sousleterme “culture à cesmondesindustriels, et historiques facettes liées etimmatérielles matérielles On peut regrouper aujourd’hui toutes les productif enparticulier. la technique engénéralouavec lesecteur avec dans lamesure oùilsontunrapport d’archivage, etdemémoire decollection d’autres sites, parexemple deslieuxclassiques réalisme tout àfaitinnovateur. S reflètent par un aussi le monde industriel nos et paysagestouristiques, industriels mais non seulement de nouvelles balises dans d’entreprises très sophistiqués. I il fautaussiajouter quelquesmusées à l’industrie/parcs demarque(s), auxquels les parcs tout à particulièrement thèmes liés en activité. P dansdessites deproductionencore part d’anciennes installationsindustrielles, d’autre danslesdifférents etéléments part types d’une potentiels industriels: touristiques que l’on voit aujourd’hui d’importants A industriel.tourisme croissante du etàuneimportance industriel mené àunereconsidération del’héritage accélérée desannées1960et1970ont genres devieliéesàladésindustrialisation et ujourd’hui, c’est dansdeuxdomaines surtout , les pertes d’objettroisièmement, lespertes etde armi cesderniers, onremarquearmi ar conséquent,ilssont ls constituent ls constituent ’y ajoutent ’y ajoutent y protégé. I monument dusite classiqued’un au-delà d’exploitation etdeprotection, etallant lesplusdiversesvaleur danslescatégories dans lediscours public quedanslesmises en qu’un pasdegéantaété franchi.Etcetant celle d’il yaune génération,onconstate Si l’on compareavec lasituationactuelle Ruhr (voir ci-dessous). à l’abandon dans le Bassin de la industrielles visant la restructuration d’anciennes zones 1999. C de1989à I BA Emscherpark d’urbanisme l’exposition internationale d’architecture et la vitesse, àquelquesexceptions près, avec En Allemagne, de cedéveloppement apris [cf. 2007]. Steinecke culturel culturel etdesbranchesdutourisme dusecteur en tantquefacettes importantes grand public, ilssesontétablisdernièrement l’économie etdanslaperception touristique du situent encore plutôt enmarge àlafois dans cf. S large d’une reconnaissance [pour les détails font industriel et letourisme aujourd’hui l’objet les années1980et1990,laculture industrielle A l’opposé dans dela situationencore observée problématiques annoncésdansletitre. de manière les thèmes et compacte Dans lebref aperçu quisuitseront abordés W original;texte cf. plus récemment Fontanari, [S industriels de É y volution oyez 1986,p. 109,traduitdel’allemanddu eid 1999, Gelhar 2005,O eid 1999,Gelhar weltkulturerbe-voelklinger-huette/] http://www.voelklinger-huette.org/de/ de/index.php?s=41 &m= 1 &l=fr; [ au P Hütte/V et Rammelsberg/Goslar dimension, tels quelessites de certaine d’une des sites industriels la C oyez 2013a,p. 361–364].M ybergeo: http://www.rammelsberg. culture ’est uneinitiative degrande envergure l fautnommerici: atrimoine culturelatrimoine mondial UNESCO parl’ inscrits ölklingen et état et du des

tourisme tgaar 2010]. approches ême s’ils se V ölklinger

ayant trait au monde industriel pourtant, les pourtant, ayant traitaumondeindustriel D et aussidedifférents modesdeproduction. témoins dedifférentes époques industrielles et derendre préserver accessiblesdenombreux institutionnelles etlégaleslesplus diverses, de deprotectiondans lescatégories privées, T y y y y outes ces réalisations permettent certes, outes cesréalisations certes, permettent y y y y e toutes demiseenvaleur lescatégories tent.Node/Startseite.en.html] C http://kristallwelten.swarovski.com/ http://www.voestalpine.com/stahlwelt; geo: http://www.autostadt.de/en/start/; le parc A une marque, tels que le parc des parcs àthèmeliésl’industrie ouà solingen/solingen_1.html] http://www.industriemuseum.lvr.de/de/ schokoladenmuseum.de/start.html; S ou laForge à Hendrichs àmatrice www.zollverein.de/service/ english-page] P deZollverein,charbon au égalementinscrit exemple lecomplexe delamine industriel des [par pans del’ancienpaysage industriel isches I - [Rhein industriel destinations dutourisme des routes àthèmeetdesréseaux reliant les frent denombreux sites ainsiquedescircuits, des muséesdel’industrie décentralisés;ilsof- Fabrique dechocolatI continue pourlesvisiteurs, commela de vraismusées, maisoùlaproduction des “musées productifs”, c’est-à-dire certes erih.net/fr/bienvenue.html) de/route-industriekultur.html; http://www. westfalen; http://www.route-industriekultur. land.de/Sued- Ueber-uns/Unsere-Region- profil/ englisch]; http://www.wassereisen http://www.lwl.org/LWL /Kultur/wim/portal/ industriemuseum.lvr.de/de/startseite.html; P elle danslaRuhr, ERIH/Route E I dustriemuseum, W dustriemuseum, ndustriekultur, Route delaculture- industri atrimoine culturelatrimoine mondial, C atrimoine I atrimoine olingen [ utostadt, leparc voestalpine stahlwelt, ndustriemuseum, ndustriemuseum, warowski Kristallwelten [ Kristallwelten Swarowski ndustriel, C C ybergeo: http://www. asserEisenLand ybergeo: http://www. mhoff àC W estfälisches I ybergeo: http:// uropéenne du uropéenne du V olkswagen M ärkische ärkische ologne C yber on- n- – – - -

31 GEOGRAPHY 32 GEOGRAPHY détails cf. 2000,2007,H Steinecke scène, lerayonnement spatialetc.) [pourles formes d’organisation, ladensité delamiseen médiatisation, levolume d’investissement, les de visiteurs, l’intensité etdela dumarketing parexemple niche aussi(concernant lenombre clairement enpleineexpansiondanscette demasse des facettestourisme évidentes d’un D plus grand pouvoir d’attraction. sont passeulementceuxquidisposentdu parcs àthème et musées liés àl’industrie ne [2001, p. 90],onpeutaborder plusieurs En sebasantsurundiagramme deSteinecke Réflexions d’ordre conceptionnel sensibles. idées conceptuellesetdesdéficits seront présentés danscequisuitquelques ne peutpasêtre approfondie ici.Enrevanche processus etdesacteurs, uneapproche qui de l’offre etdelademandequ’au regard des tourisme, être analyséstantdupointdevue plus traditionnelsdelagéographie du desthèmesetdomaines cas concernant peuvent,industriel commec’est souvent le L P [Source: modifié d’après Soyez, Li 2006, Steinecke 2001. 2006, Li d’après Soyez, [Source: modifié Conception D. Soyez, réalisation R. Spohner, R. Institut Conception réalisation de D. Soyez, es interactions et les types de tourisme detourisme etlestypes interactions es echlaner, M e plusenplus, cesparcs révèlent également paysages culturels: essai de synopse dans un un dans synopse de essai culturels: paysages Fig. 1: Les “mondes de l’industrie” dans nos nos dans l’industrie” de 1: “mondes Fig. Les espace bi-dimensionnel des attributs Géographie, Université Cologne] de Géographie, atzler 2001,E ckardt 2005]. ckardt interhuber, S déficits marqués [pourplusd’informations cf. mises enœuvres jusqu’ici présentent des culture industriel etletourisme industrielle presque toutes lesapproches la concernant choisie, on s’aperçoit cependant que autre perspective, jusqu’à présent rarement du tourisme. Sil’on seplace dansune point devuetraditionnellagéographie paraître satisfaisantespeuvent d’un certes C y y y y suivantsetdeleursinterdépendances:aspects siteraient d’abord desétudesapprofondies des représentations néces- dumondeindustriel géographiques pluspousséesdesdiverses Une conceptualisation et une analyse plusieurs décennies. temporelle desdifférentes approches depuis industriel. Laflècheretrace lasuccession spécifiques demiseenvaleurpourletourisme aussiquellessontlesformes il enressort des mondesindustriels” marque nospaysages; manière toute de unevariété “représentations domaine: ilnemontre pas seulementdequelle les élémentscités jusqu’ici (et d’autres) dansce desynopsetous auxautres etsert rapport demiseenvaleurlesunspar types différents L aujourd’hui nospaysages culturels (cf. Fig. 1): qui caractérisent des mondes industriels decatégories la représentationtypes e diagramme depositionnerles permet y y y y oyez 2013a,p. 265&2013b]. es approches rapidement esquissées cours dedésagrégation”... de l’état naturel” à “paysages en industriels l’évolution despaysages allantde “proche L l’autopromotion desentreprises L environnement fonctionnel leur ycompris installations industrielles temporels ainsi que d’explications des L industriel d’interprétation historique dupatrimoine L ’explication etladocumentationde es types de visites et es déroulementstypes es approches dedocumentationet es genres et particularités dees genres etparticularités importantes deleurtransnationalité. importantes rendredevrait lisibleslesfacettes lesplus interprétation danscedomaine, touristique et des époques industriels, et par là toute pourquoi toute représentation des mondes de l’extérieur et/ouvers l’extérieur. C appréciation desimpulsions transfrontalières pratiquement pasenvisageable sans une approfondie n’est dumonde industriel P terminologie cf. Jackson,Crang&D transnationalité inhérente la [concernant parune donc marquées engrande partie sont nationales: lesmutationsindustrielles le résultat dufranchissementdesfrontières des processus d’adoptionconstatés icisont à l’époque desÉtatsnationaux,nombre d’industrialisation commencentseulement Étant donnéquelesprocessus modernes processus d’imitation oud’adoptioncomplète. quel qu’il soit,semettent alorsenplacedes unavantage, supposer quelescopierapporte on perçoit desmodèles, etdèsquel’on peut P les processus dechangementssocio-culturels. est unélémentconstitutifdepresque tous transfrontaliers debiens, personnesetidées, L Points départs de feront l’objet duprochain principal chapitre. C pas refoulé, maisvolontairement entretenu. nialisation, danslamesure oùlesouvenir n’est peuvent conduire àdesprocessus depatrimo vent aussiêtre étroitement liés, etlesdeux L mémorielles. une société etsesconstructions dans les sites industriels, dans aussi et surtout tisants, liésàdenombreux lieuxetévénements, lessouvenirs douloureux, mêmestrauma- part sidération lesprocessus transfrontaliers; d’autre compréhensibles si l’on ne prend pas en con- facettes de laréalité doncquinepeuvent être nationalité desconnexités industrielles, deces I Transnationalité ls concernent d’une part lecaractère detrans- part d’une ls concernent es deux, transnationalité ettraumatisme, peu- a transnationalité, c’est-à-direa lerésultat deflux articulièrement lorsqu’ilarticulièrement s’agit d’innovations, ar conséquent, une compréhension plus e sontdetels problématiques terrains qui

et traumatismes wyer 2004]. wyer ’est - 1996, Graham,A internationaux, est donc caractérisée par estdonc caractérisée internationaux, industriel, et surlesplansnationaux et les domainesdelaculture etdutourisme des approches etdesréalisations dans À quelques exceptions près, la majorité 2012]. 2009, 2013,Lauterbach exemple François 2006;cf. entre autres S H des nombreuses discussions intéressantes en non traitées, voire mêmerefoulés [àl’opposé qui ysontrattachées, restent engrande partie et parlàlesdifférentes cultures dusouvenir bien latransnationalité quelestraumatismes, prédominent, ons’aperçoit quejusqu’ici aussi mise en valeur et d’interprétation qui y industriel, ainsi que vers les stratégies de de laculture etdutourisme industrielle aucentre denosdéveloppements, ici thèmes, Si l’on cependantleregard reporte vers les 2013]. 2012,Hartmann Steinecke 2000, la geographie [cf. dutourisme L A lentement. quiestentraindeseformer sous-discipline de mêmepourlagéographie dupatrimoine, par denombreuses disciplines, etilenest desthèmestraités depuis longtemps partie lieux concrets oudessociétés entières, font que leurscausesetimplicationspourdes T (guerre,impact violence, perte...). unénorme générations etainsiconserver peuvent rester très douloureux pendantdes individus quesurdessociétés entières. I ont euuneffet traumatisanttantsurles aussi en relation avec des événements qui D cf. entre autres les conceptionsetrésultats empiriques, [concernant transfrontaliers etmulticulturels notammentdansdescontextes parties, de manières très contraires par les différentes sont liésàdeslieuxprécis etcommémorés événements difficiles ou même traumatisants c’est presque toujours le cas lorsque des comme important, est iciparticulièrement ransnationalité et traumatismes, de même shworth, Graham, shworth, istoire et S e tels processus peuvent se produire A shworth, shworth, L ciences HumainesetS e concept de l’ dissonant”“héritage shworth, shworth, artmann 2005, Quack, 2005, Quack, Hartmann T T unbridge 2007)etdans unbridge unbridge, A T unbridge 2000, unbridge ennon, Foley ociales, par shworth oyez oyez ls

33 GEOGRAPHY 34 GEOGRAPHY [cf. Kilper, delafindesannées1950 partir naissante à la désindustrialisation trouvées encore renforcées par développement social, quis’étaient problématiques etde enmatière d’urbanisme les dérives très sans égard etd’autre part radicalement modifiéparuneindustrialisation et asservi le paysage naturel engrande partie L une grande région anciennementindustrialisée. grâce àdescentainesdeprojets, restructurer, à projet extraordinairement ambitieuxvisant réalisée entre 1989et1999,constitueun L L’évolution dans le Bassin de la Ruhr domaines déficitaires. exemples dedémonstrationdansces P y y centres de visiteurs où des vues centres devisiteurs où desvues à thèmeet, finalement, les panoramas, lesterrils, lesroutes icônes, lescités ouvrières, les desites sorte Ankerpunkte, autrement. On distingue: les musée, coulisse, objetréutilisé différentes manières – comme de laRuhretlesutiliser ans d’histoire de l’industrialisation d’importants témoins des 150 etdevaloriser de conserver 2008]. Ellearévélé despossibilités Route derI culture industrielle” [en allemand: Emscher P del’expositionprojets partiels IBA L R W ’objectif étaitde principal “réparer” part d’une ’exposition IBAEmscherP internationale ’un des plus importants y y our commencer, laRuhrenoffre debons VR 2012). ood 2000,P l’histoire del’industrialisation. sombres, douloureuses, effroyables de souvent systématique, des heures fortuite, mais exclusionen fait parfois un héritage “expurgé”, c’est-à-dire une nationaleset catégories une obstination à penser dans des W ark était la ark “route de la ndustriekultur, cf. Kift ood 1995, ood 1995, rossek etal. 2009, D anielzyk, anielzyk, autorisation de Xue Desheng) l'aimable Patrimoine mondial de culturel l'UNESCO (Photo avec du liste la sur 2001 en inscrite àEssen, XII» «Zollverein charbon de Fig. centrale Entrée et 2. chevalement principale de l'ancienne mine ark, ark, de charbon, lamétallurgiede charbon, etlasidérurgie représentéesprincipalement les mines sont cependant qu’un choixtrès sélectif: très impressionnante.certes Ellenereflète danssonensemble,industrielle elleest Si l’on considère laroute delaculture million). estimé àplusd’un de laRuhr(avec unnombre annueldevisiteurs destinationstouristiques desprincipales l’une C d’intérêtdépourvue touristique. perçue comme sale etcomplètement auparavant de la Ruhr (interne et externe), améliorer considérablementl’image demarque remarquable à quiaégalementcontribué des destinations tourisme d’un industriel d’ensembles sontconcentrées, tous devenus du en 1986,elleaété en2001 inscrite surlaliste objectifs etsacohérence (cf. Fig. 2).D unique au mondedansson approche, ses à Essenquiestaucentre decette réalisation, ’est l’ancienneminedecharbon “Zollverein XII P atrimoine culturel mondial et est devenue culturelatrimoine mondial et est devenue ésaffectée ésaffectée ” le que tard) leurhistoire sous qui ontfaitétudier(bien d’entreprises allemandes dunombre restreintpartie particu elles font presque toutes intéressantes. P sont automobiledu secteur entreprises allemandes A 2003, entre autres 2002,2014,Kuhn, Urban métallurgique et sidérurgique de la Ruhr [cf. nationalités, dans lesmines et l’industrie des RussesetFrançais, entre autres du travail forcé effectué pardesP nous neciterons iciquelaproblématique détails. P les géographes...) jusquedanslesmoindres (maisàpeinepar étudiée parleshistoriens sombres de l’histoire allemande récente a été nombreuses entreprises dansleschapitres manque d’informations, carl’implication de C de l’histoire récente. phases sombres douloureuses extrêmement sur les facettes transnationales et sur les remarquables des informations de la Ruhr: totalement mêmedanscesréalisations quimanquent encoreindustrialisation M Heinemann 2003,S [quant àd’autres cf. pointscritiques aussi professionnels del’héritage les gardiens les plus sont égalementdevenues tout àfaitbienvenus. Elles aussi surprenants que culture industrielle, tout dans ledomainedela les parmi “nouveaux venus” souligné dansl’introduction, être comptées, comme à l’industrie ellesdoivent parcs àthèmes/muséesliés D indépendants.historiens ette situation nerésulte éventuel pasd’un u vu de ces omissions frappantes les euxièmement, avec leurs ais ilyadeuxfaitsconstitutifs detoute T roisième pardes Reich T enfelde, S armi denombreuxarmi exemples remièrement, eidel 2005]. lièrement oyez, Li2009]. (Source: photo prise par l’auteur) comme exemple d’un parc à thème/musée lié à l’industrie Stuttgart-Untertürkheim Museum”à “Mercedes-Benz Le 3. Fig. olonais, W eiß mondes actuels. L représentations dansnos industrielles impressionnants, voire spectaculaires, des considérés commedespointsculminants à thème dédiés à l’industrie doivent être C Les parcs àthème liés àl’industrie 2013b]. [pourplusdedétailscf.traités ci-dessous S àcesujetseront enrapport importants aspects domaine delaculture industrielle. Quelques présent presque entièrement défautdansle technologie spatiale, histoire quifaitjusqu’à l’aéronautique en cequiconcerne etla une histoire étonnante, ettrès particulière, decesentreprises ont déficitaire, certaines T suffiront jamaisàremplir unetelle fonction). anciennes, quionttoujours existé, ne siècle (lesnombreusesdevoitures collections à sajuste mesure jusqu’à lafinduXX àpeinereprésenté héritage automobile, matériel et immatériel de l’industrie ( tuttgart; cf.(Stuttgart; Fig. 3),leBMW W roisièmement, etilyalàunautre domaine omme précédemment indiqué, les parcs olfsburg), leM ’ A utostadt ercedes-Benz W orld (M orld V olkswagen unich) W oyez oyez ème ème elt

35 GEOGRAPHY 36 GEOGRAPHY S KdF- la productionad’abord été concentrée à missilesdecroisière);prototype desactuels système deproductiondumissile longtemps l’entreprise quiacoordonné le et l’ 1996]. [cf. ladocumentationdeM territoires allemands occupés ou annexés des surunegrande partie étendu etréparti avec ses nombreux sous-traitantsaété W de Fallersleben, après laguerre rebaptisé européennes: et decellebeaucoupd’autres nations même traumatiquesdenotre histoire – les plus douloureuses,une des périodes exposés à l’instant. les plus frappants des déficits qui ont été cessites sontaussilesexemples Et pourtant, nepeutoffrir. industriel du tourisme que pratiquementaucuneautre destination transparente, dumoinsàcequ’il yparaît,ce M la vente devoitures etlafidélisationdesclients. représentation professionnelle delamarque, L y y pour toutes lesgénérationsdevisiteurs: manière impressionnante etcompréhensible manquer. S nesemble dumonde industriel Ici, rien d’excellents exemples. es objectifsdesentreprises sont la y y ais: laréalité estainsirendue industrielle olfsburg, puislesystème deproduction maternelle. passionnés detechnique auxenfantsde intérêts des différents groupes, allant des etdesinformationsactivités adaptées aux des manifestations en tous genres, des ettemporaires,expositions permanentes visitestout d’usine), cela complété par des (possibilités dela productionactuelle l’étroite relation avec spatio-fonctionnelle disponible) actuellement collection de livraisonetlescentres devente la historiques, etdans collections les centres palette de produits (dans lesmusées l’histoire, l’évolution technique, la A tadt (Kraft-durch-Freude- udi Forum (I ont expliqués et illustrés de V olkswagen a été pendant C ar ils excluent sciemment ngolstadt) enoffrent ommsen, Grieger ommsen, Grieger Stadt) près V1 (le sortes delieuxsatellites descampslesplus sortes d`innombrables de “commandos extérieurs”, tous les territoires occupés et annexés, dans de guerre.prisonniers forcés descampsdeconcentrationetaux fonctionner quegrâce auxtravailleurs (de mêmequel’agriculture) nepouvait près, allemande laproductionindustrielle T dans le système concentrationnaire du en relation avec laguerre étaientintégrées que presque toutes lesformes deproduction d’extermination. M enpremierReich lieuavec lescamps On apourhabituded’associerle de notre histoire:Holocauste. l’ relieles plus effroyables des périodes à l’une industriel. C de laculture etdutourisme industrielle grand public –ainsiquedanslesdomaines refoulées oumêmesciemmenttuesau niveau historique, maislargement oubliées, C la technique aérospatiale). de la culture (secteur industriels etletourisme – potentiellement intéressantscompris pour entreprises, sites etréseaux de production spécialisés, extrêmement industrielle etdonc – produit final de deux systèmes de production L thématique traitée ici. et lanécessité d’intégrer dansla cesaspects tout simplementd’établir unfaithistorique allemande àcette époque. C de souligner l’état d’avancée del’industrie n’est nidenoircir cesdeuxentreprises, ni Que leschosessoientbienclaires: l’intention W 1987,Hopmannetal. 1994, 20. Jahrhunderts Hamburger le débutdelatechnique aérospatiale) [cf. fusée balistiquedumondeetamarqué (ce missilefutlapremièreéléments-clé l’élaboration du missile phasedécisivetechnique de lorsd’une sonconcoursquant àelle, aapporté M es deux armes àdistance es deuxarmes roisième Aquelquesexceptions Reich. es connexionssonttrès bienétabliesau ercedes-Benz (àl’époque Daimler-Benz), agner 2001]. tiftung für Stiftung ’est d’autant plus vrai si l’on les ais onoublietrop souvent I ls étaient répartis dans ls étaient répartis S ozialgeschichte des V1 et V2 et livré des e qui importe est e quiimporte 2 étaient le V2 étaientle T roisième entreprises sont tout-à-fait compréhensibles: L sombre” industriel “tourisme nonplus. industrielle. I pas thématiséssurlessites delaculture dérangeants del’histoire nesont industrielle sombre”, les côtés les plus pénibles et devenus des destinations du “tourisme douloureux denoshistoires sontaujourd’hui T pays européens. travailleurs forcés originaires deplusvingt par l’exploitation engénéralinhumainede E de l’ dansdesgrandesinterpénétrations parties seulement parsesemplacementset T sousleAinsi laproductionindustrielle 1996, Grieger M “relocalisés” danslecampdeconcentration camp de concentration Buchenwald et beaucoup d’eux venus célèbre dutristement grâce àdes milliers de travailleurs forcés, Saxe, qui,lui,nefonctionnait que en Basse- prèsd’assemblage souterrain deNordhausen moisdelaguerre,les derniers dansunsite produites, souslecontrôle delaSS,durant distance Et, pourrevenir à àlaproductiondesarmes synthèsep. 14/15danscelivre].carte de Kochendorf/Bade- l’ Struthof dans de concentrationNatzweiler- document effrayant surlesystème du camp titre dulivre deRiexinger, 2003,un Ernst l’extermination parletravail [cf. aussile effroyable:allemands emploienticiunterme les campsdeconcentration,historiens pas tellement différentes decellesdans n’étaientdans cescommandosextérieurs proximité descamps. L sites de production qui étaient délocalisés à production, soitaucontraire c’étaient les àproximitéils étaientérigés dessites de avant tout decampsditstravail: soit connus dugrand public. C lsace occupée et son commando extérieur Alsace occupéeetsoncommandoextérieur ’attitude et le comportement des’attitude etlecomportement andis quebeaucoupd’autres chapitres roisième n’était Reich pas “transnationale” ittelbau-D urope. Elleétaittransnationaleaussi V1 et ora [pourlesdétailscf. M ls n’ont doncpas faitnaître de W 2: la plupart d’entreV2: laplupart ellesétaient agner 2001]. W es conditionsdevie ürttemberg; cf.ürttemberg; la ertes, ils’agissaitertes, ommsen, ommsen, de la période dite de de lapériode industrialisation”,“haute témoignent industriel du tourisme surtout destinations spectaculaires et les principales D représentées. d’autres branches sont fortement sous- métallurgie etdelasidérurgie. Beaucoup audomaineminier,appartiennent dela industrielen valeurpourletourisme D points devue: On constate d’abord desfaiblessesdedeux la culture etpatrimoniale. industrielle complètement absentsdansledomainede jusqu’il industriels secteurs yapeudetemps aussidansdes valeur touristique, surtout et degrands progrès dansleurmiseen la représentation des mondes industriels par d’impressionnantes réalisations dans enAllemagne, industriel ilestcaractérisé l’étatEn cequiconcerne dutourisme L leurs parcs demarque. T “resource inconflict” [cf. letitre dulivre de par denombreux chercheurs commeune représenterpourrait cequiest considéré “responsible corporate citizen”: leur passé ajouter àleurréputationpourrait comme àleurpassésombre même parrapport qu’une politiqued’information plusouverte complètement ce semblent sous-estimer deux entreprises, comme tant d’autres, V elles-mêmes, commec’est lecaspour été souligné, avec l’aidedesentreprises longtemps, même, comme il l’a déjà parfois sontétablisdepuisles faitshistoriques également honteux, étantdonnéque regrettables.extrêmement En fait ilssont histoire quiendécoule, sontcependant et le “nettoyage” ciblé de leur propre leurs revenus. M elles craignent pourleurréputation et C es conclusionsseront brèves: unbridge, olkswagen et onclusion ’une part, la plupart des sites (re)mis laplupart ’une part, ’autre part, les réalisations’autre les plus part, A shworth 1996] même dansshworth M ais unetelle position, ercedes-Benz. Et ces

37 GEOGRAPHY 38 GEOGRAPHY

heinemannU 10.

h 11.

ainsi quedesapproches correspondantes depaix etdeguerre),(pendant lespériodes traumatiques, del’industrialisation sombres,les périodes voire même processus detransnationalisationet dans le fait que lesprincipalement L automobile, sous-représentées. sontfortement lesparcs àthèmedel’industrie mis àpart de l’industrialisation etlesrécentes évolutions, dumilieuXIX donc àpartir

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39 GEOGRAPHY 40 GEOGRAPHY s 29. s 28. t 33. teinecke A. (2001)I steinecke 31. s 30. rban urban 34. t 32. 32. w 35. que V de l’ P industriel). patrimoine de la société civile) et la géographie du tourisme (centre et du sur le tourisme industriel duNord en Amérique surdesacteurs étaientlagéographie politique (centrée enparticulier Union GéographiqueI l’ M A. (2007)Kulturtourismus. steinecke Ruhr undM trietouristischer D trietouristischer Klartext, p. 361–375. Klartext, a Resource inC 8–10,2009(conferenceSingapore, January CD). C sides.ing their dark nisW M I nationality. andRomance, Rust,Regeneration I Kohlenbergbau desD Kohlenbergbau M en A ronbridge, enfelde K., H.- enfelde K., unbridge J.unbridge E., G.J. A oyez, D oyez D oyez, D onverging Forces andC P ice- ssociation d’Études C ssociation d’Études ünchen/W odelle – agner J.- W elten: eltkrieg. P eltkrieg. résident (2008–2012) etP résident T h. (2014) Zwangsarbeit bei h. (2014)Zwangsarbeit . (2013a) ., L.i(2009) ncomfortable LandscapesofourI . (2013b)Uncomfortable Chr. (2001)P V T T aas. P tandort zurD om Standort rends. I elford/ July10–14,2013( UK, ien: Oldenbourg. Chr. S aderborn: Ferdinandaderborn: S hichester: John John Chichester: onflict. V ionierland derI ionierland estinationen imRheinland. I om I UGI. nternationale/ P n: M eritage: (1996)DissonantHeritage: shworth armi ses services on peut nommer ses activités commeP onpeutnommersesactivités sesservices armi eidel (eds.)D imBergwerk. (2005)Zwangsarbeit eritage undM Heritage zwischen ndustrieerlebniswelten aper presented at the Dietrich Soyez Dietrich apassélesdernières 15ansavant saretraite en T environnementale. D eutschen Reiches imErsteneutschen Reiches undZweiten sa recherché étaitcentre surlagéographie économique la sidérurgie etl’industrie forestière enSuèdecentrale. D sur des à conflits environnementauxen 1981 portait par rapport en géographie àl’université delaSarre/ industrielle Saarbrücken S del’université deStockholm. fiskainstitutionen) D etClermont-Ferrand, Stockholm de Bonn,Saarbrücken, au géographie, languesromanes etethnographie auxuniversités de C 2007 commetitulaire chaire d’une degéographie àl’université ransnational heritage valorizations inE valorizations ransnational heritage roduktion des ndustriedenkmal zurI ndustriedenkmal anadiennes desP épartement deGéographie P épartement atzler K., H.P atzler K., onflicting onflicting ologne/Allemagne.I S Erich- estination. Berlin: remier – ndustrialisierung T V hyssen. “Stahlverein” und “Baron-Konzern” imZweit alues, A T chöningh. M odes. DasKZ echlaner, H. V W P ice- C S (1993–1995)ainsi ays Germanophones/GK iley. onference P ’autres specialtiespoursuivées enE I nternational nternational sia Research I arktstrukturen, Fallstudien, P ndustrieerlebniswelt. Zum P ndustrieerlebniswelt. résident (depuis 2012)respectivement de n: Buschmann, l a fait son doctorat, aprèsl afaitsondoctorat, desétudesde ron andSteel LandscapesandC W ittelbau-D ndustrial P ndustrial erkstatt derI erkstatt roceedings ( interhuber (éds.)interhuber I chmidt- T C he M nstitute, of NationalUniversity onference on hysique (Naturgeogra urope andChina:A anagement oftheP W W ora. Göttingen: ora. Göttingen: V asts: . (éd.) Zwischen Rhein- erlag, p. 89–101 eltkrieg. Essen:Klartext. eltkrieg. ndustriekultur. Essen: CD). rbeitseinsatz im er Arbeitseinsatz T rauma and arkt: Konzepte – arkt: eritage in Heritage on habilitation otenzial indus - Erleb ndustrie erspektiven. urope et W résident ès lors, allstein. ddress- ultures, T ast as rans- A sia: - - change inthe environment associated with 1960s,early whenit became clearthatarapid ofinterestsubject for researchers sincethe environment onpublichealthhasbeena P analysis Beijing, public health, medico-geographical 1 general andspecificto eachregion. factors, both and identifiestheleadingrisk the environment on the state of publichealth conditions. areas withdifferent naturalandsocio-economic in M analysis of medical and environmental situation and usedfor acomparative geographical of analyticalandsyntheticmapswascompiled analysis.regional Aseries medico-geographical agglomerationsandamethodof health ofurban oftheenvironmentimpact onthepopulation approach to a comprehensive of the evaluation 3 2 Svetlana M.Malkhazova , e-mail: [email protected]* Corresponding author,e-mail: 100101, China, Tel: +86-10-6488-9276 Chinese Academy ofScience(CAS), 11A,Datun Road, Beijing, Chaoyang District, 119991, RussianFederation, Tel: +7(495)9392123 Geography, Lomonosov Moscow State University, GSP-1, Gory, Leninskie Moscow, Tel: +7(495)9394717 University, GSP-1, Gory, Leninskie Moscow, 119991,RussianFederation, Natalia V.Shartova and China. areashealth ofthepopulationinurban inRussia assessment ofthestate oftheenvironment and RFBR project№12-05-91175-ГФЕН_а aimedat underthejointRussian- obtained Introduction Abstract Key agglomerations in Health Institute ofGeographicalInstitute SciencesandNatural Resources Research (IGSNRR), Geography, andSoil ofLandscapeGeochemistry FacultyDepartment of ofBiogeography,Department Faculty ofGeography, Lomonosov Moscow State roblems of the influence of the urban words – major metropolitan oscow andBeijing –majormetropolitan moscow and T . he paper discusses the influence of he paperdiscussestheinfluenceof T T : he paperpresents theauthors’ urban agglomeration, M urban he paperpresents theresults of 2 , LiHairong urban 1 , YangLinsheng hinese Chinese 3 oscow, , WangLi beijing population 3 impact of urban areas. for ofurban factors impact Risk remote regions are underthegrowing adverse environmental changes. E isassociated withsignificanturbanization A most favorable conditionsfor life. human and material resources, cities create the intelligentsia. Beingthecenters ofgravity of personnel andscientific andcreative highly qualified specialists, including medical choices. Large citiesandcapitalsconcentrate for more educationandcareer opportunities andculturalvalues,of material and provide level formhigh levelacertain ofcomfort, health systems, communications, provide a developed productionandsocialstructure, mainly economicandsocialnature. Citieshave forms ofurban settlementare of Benefits behavior [M physical and social activity, anddemographic andhealthofthepopulation,their expectancy T are modified. fieldsoftheEarth and electric transformed and gravity, magnetic, thermal, climatic, geophysical, andlandconditionsare a numberofuniquefeatures. I [Environment ecosystems have ...,1979].Urban strong have influenceonhumanlife avery the growth socialaspects ofcitiesandvarious 3 he environmental ofcitiesaffects life quality , Wang Wuyi t thesametime, theprocess of

alkhazova, Koroleva, 2011]. Koroleva, alkhazova, 3 , Dmitry S.Orlov , Dmitry

n large cities, 1 *, ven

41 ENVIRONMENT 42 ENVIRONMENT under thejointRussian- T al., 2011;Identification...,2014etal.]. M Elliott, 2003; is theenvironmental pollution[Rushton, consequence ofhuman-inducedchanges components;the mainnegativeits various environmenthealth intheurban involve and cartographic modeling.and cartographic methods andtechniques ofmathematical are basedonmathematicalandstatistical T general andspecificto eachregion. have factors, both identifiedtheleadingrisk environment onthelevel ofpublichealthand authors have analyzed theinfluenceof conditions. natural andsocio-economic Beijing environmental situationinM geographical analysisofmedicaland maps wascompiledandusedfor comparative analysis. ofanalyticalandsynthetic Aseries and amethodofregional medico-geographical agglomerations ofurban health on impacts the integrated assessmentofenvironmental China. areasthe populationinurban inRussiaand of thestate oftheenvironment andhealthof № 12-05-91175-ГФЕН_а aimedatassessment T population. of thehealthstatusurban and have developed amethodofassessment to medicalandenvironmental site assessments analyzed theexistingmethodsandapproaches health and livelihoods of the population of ofthe populationof livelihoods and health specifically, thataffect themainfactors T livelihoods ofthepopulation. that directlyorindirectlyaffect healthand indicators andtheenvironmental factors stages involving bothassessmentofhealth T M Russia asawhole[M M he present-day medico-geographical studies studies he present-day medico-geographical he approach wastested inM his paperdiscussestheresults obtained he his procedure consistsofseveral research hartova 2013]. alhazova, Shartova edical andD aterials consists of preparatory work; work; first phase consistsofpreparatory T – major metropolitan areas with different he authorspresent theirapproach to and W ang, Krafft, 2008; Revich, 2010; 2008; Revich, ang, Krafft, emographic ...2011;Boaset methods alhazova etal. 2010,2012; hinese RFBR project Chinese RFBRproject T he authors have he authorshave oscow and in oscow andin oscow and oscow and T he he T environment.the urban (condition of air, water, andsoil)inanalysisof health facilities, etc.) andanthropogenic load (unemployment, average wages, of availability Specialattention isgiven toshot”). socialfactors three (aone-year years) orstaticaspects “snap- in dynamic(data analysisfor ofatleast aperiod overall population.Research canbeconducted age of14,menandwomen separately, andthe population intheanalysisare children underthe worldwide. the outpatientandinpatienthealthcare system ofthepopulationin medical aidappealability theincidence, causesofdeath,and reporting classification of...,2003],usedfor recording and of diseases (ICD classification revision international ofthemodern and healthindicators isbased on the10th D ..., 2002;Recommendations regulations [Environmental healthindicators onthestate oftheenvironment,reports and sanitary, andotherstudies, government details ofenvironmental epidemiological, assessment andanalysisofliterature, including T environmenturban onthepopulationhealth. ofthe identifytheimpact that mostclearly theanalysisisbasedonparameters in used regionsselected are selected. database, i.e., (G IS), for the visualization of the T indicators, andindicators ofthehealthsystem. environmental health,socio-economic and environmentally-dependent diseases, class ofdiseases, incidenceof sociallyrelevant demographic, of thepopulationby morbidity includes thefollowing thematicblocks: and environmental data. compiled into athematicdatabaseofmedical the analyzed cities. if possible, for theadministrative unitswithin administrative unitswithin the regions, and, are for collected entire regions, for individual Federal S that monitor theenvironment andofthe relevant andorganizations healthauthorities statistical data on administrative units of the he information is selected based on expert he information basedonexpert isselected he hese data are further compiledinto aspatial hese dataare further etermination of the analyzed demographic oftheanalyzedetermination demographic second phase includesof collection tatistical data ofState Statistics. Statisticaldata ervice T he main components of the he maincomponentsofthe -10) [ T he information obtained is he information obtainedis I nternational statistical nternational statistical T he database structure he databasestructure T ..., 2005]. WHO ...,2005]. he information he information WHO

assessment ofthehealthstatusare T environmental healthsituation. for thefinalintegrated assessmentofthe A nozoforms ofvarious terms morbidity. of administrative unitsthatare similarin population. I onthehealthof factors impact environment study of the urban in-depth technique andK-means) are usedfor more methods ofcluster analysis(dendrogram M environment andpublichealth. analysisofthecurrent state ofthe for further environmental andare used characteristics and socio-economic, medico-demographic, ofvarious spatial andtemporal distribution of graphs a complement series reflect the ofanalyticalmapsand Aseries this ranking. environmental are factors mappedbased on of theirscatter. M the maximumandminimumvalues basedontheidentificationof and ranked evaluation data are to subjected pre-analysis isconducted. Allthe situation ofterritories modeling ofhealthandenvironmental A levels.administrative andterritorial timely updates datafor withnew various products. research results andcreation ofcartographic he results ofthiscomprehensive health of state the of assessment for (algorithm) 1.Fig. Flowchart , a mathematical-cartographic t thethird phase,amathematical-cartographic 10-score assessment method is used athematical-cartographic modelingwith athematical-cartographic T he database structure allows t allows identificationofgroups edico-demographic and and edico-demographic of the urban population urban the of

shown inFig. 1. T and graphic editingtool A geoinformation systemcartographic for statisticaldataprocessing Statistica,a applications: MSExcel, aspecialized package T specifics ofstudyareas. indicators andidentificationofregional a relative geographical of these comparison in aclearquantitative form, whichallows for health indicators are measured andranked regions. M state ofhealththepopulationindifferent processes andphenomenainrelation to the of differentcrucial in evaluations geographical research. C traditional technique ofmedico-geographical methodandisa comparative-geographical environmental analysis. phaseofthemedicaland done atthefinal, fourth, ofthepopulationdifferent activity areas is C number ofclassesandtheirboundaries. method withmanualadjustmentofthe is basedonthenaturalgradation interval units. Ranking administrative-territorial are presented ofthe inthecontext mapping ofphenomenafor whichdata representation, traditionallyusedfor anddiagrammaticmethods are cartograms rendered cartographically. he algorithm’s schematicrepresentation is his approach utilized basic software omparative analysis of the health and vital omparative analysisofthehealthandvital omparative geographical method is omparative geographical methodis any environmental and factors T his approach is called his approach iscalled dobe I T llustrator. he main ArcGIS,

43 ENVIRONMENT 44 ENVIRONMENT 808 km T 2009–2010 and, partially, to 2011–2012. below correspond to the officialstatisticsof region), in2000–2012. region (M area included rural areas) and the metropolitan regions – Beijing(the situation for the two medico-geographical affecting thehealthstatusandfactors comparative analysisofenvironmental T – – – technique canbeusedfor: D km oftheM territory region (40 %) iscomposedofaplainterrain Results he territory oftheBeijingregion is16 he territory he created databases were used for a – – – epending on the purpose of research,epending onthepurpose this condition. and environmental influencingits factors integrated health assessmentofurban and publichealth; environmentcomponents of the urban environmental andgeographical obtaining information aboutspecific mental healthsituation; assessmentoftheenvironpreliminary 2 (the urban area (theurban is2511km 2 (the urban area (the urban is 1 289 km and oscow city itselfandtheM oscow city discussion oscow region – is44379 T he datapresented Fig. 2. Smog in Beijing (photo by D. Orlov) (photo Beijing in Smog 2. Fig. 2 ). T he Beijing he M oscow oscow 2 ); the people; population density is1289pop./km people; populationdensity T 150 m. with altitudedifference ofnotmore than (November to M region hashotsummersandcoldwinters are associated withclimaticconditions. T health statusoftheBeijingmetropolitan area Significant influencingthe naturalfactors following conclusions. M regions, urban health statusofthetwo i.e., that may have onthe apotential impact Analysis oftheenvironmental components respectively. pop./km is 4 823 is 12.1 million; population density T of upto 2303 m.). and mountainousareas (60 %)(elevation situated entirely on the 7.1 million people and 160 pop./km the M including over 700 mm in the northern including over 700 mm in the northern T +38 °C–+42for 22consecutive days. summer of2010,dailytemperatures were conditions are alsopresent. sand andduststorms. weather Extreme M he population of Beijing is about 21 million he populationofBeijingisabout21million he population of the he average annualrainfallis585mm, oscow andBeijing, allows reaching the ay), there are strong often windscausing oscow region ismuchsmaller, i.e., 2 . P opulation size and density of opulation size anddensity arch). I T he M M East n spring ( n spring oscow urban areaoscow urban oscow region is E uropean T hus, inthe pril and April P lain, he 2 2 , . average volume ofwater is3.77billionm ofwater inBeijing. availability shortage geographical situation is of the a medico- for factor theformation Another important M geographical situationinthe of themedico- ontheformationeffect ofclimaticfactors general, we cannote alesspronounced climatic of extreme events. However, in increased frequency has beenobserved by 4°Candby 1–1.5°CinJuly);besides, there average temperature (inJanuary, itincreased rose 1.5°Ccompared to themulti-annual decade, theaverage annualairtemperature are beingobserved. changes associated withglobalprocesses activities. C environment for humanhealthandvital favorable transitional seasons;itforms avery moderately continentalwithdistinct capacity ofwater supplyis0.6million m capacity water andgroundwater. M region has the excessive use of both surface center.directly in the city I per day. About90 %ofwastewater istreated 300 m W m water is2.04billion of whichthesurface m Beijing withatotal volume of9.35billion I country. T (Fig. 2). of Beijing formation of smog in the territory pollutants intheatmosphere andthe conditions favor theconcentrationof (1406 mm) was recorded in1869andthemaximum annual variability. there is a high degree of rainfall inter- season from Juneto S of theprecipitation thewet fallsduring oftheplains. About85 % part the southern and western foothills and450–600mmin supply (1000m standardthan theinternational of water n total, there are in 85 water reservoirs he climate oftheM oscow region, compared withBeijing. ater per capita islessthan availability 3 3 , and 50 000 groundwater wells. and groundwater is 1.73 billion m 3 peryear, whichissignificantly less urrently, however, climatic – in 1959. 3 percapitayear) for the T he minimum(272mm) eptember. I T hus, over thepast oscow region is uch ofthetime, T n general, this hese weather n addition, T T he he 3 3 3 , .

the total area of100millionm more sites with than10000construction zones are inBeijing;there reported are intense. C the transformations ofrecent years are less the M exploration anddevelopment; however, in load. Bothregions of have alonghistory accompanied by thegrowing anthropogenic consequence, theincreasing urbanization intensive economicdevelopment and, as a of thepopulationinbothregions isthe the greatest onthehealthstatus impact T problem inrespectto factor publichealth. region, isnota thewater factor availability I more than10millionm total withvolumes volume of ofthereservoirs of lakes,and13main-maidreservoirs. 900 riversand1000streams, alarge number I wastewater (76 %in2009). the sametime, there isalow level oftreated river water belongsto theclass3quality. A degree of water pollution: about 50 ecosystems are deteriorating. conditionsofriver most oftheriversare dry; 2 million privately owned).2 millionprivately A Beijing, there were 4.5millioncars(including has caused air pollution. of thenumbervehicles inrecent years the hightrafficload. Asignificant increase economic development of the regions is T consumption. system, andthetransitionto naturalgas pollution, transformation oftheenergy the prevention andmitigationofparticulate and environmental situationinBeijingis of theareas ofimprovement ofthemedical affecting thehealthof population.One for factor theregionremains animportant of Beijing, continuoususeofcoal asfuel D center.Beijing israpidchangeoftheoldcity featurecharacteristic of the transformation in n theM t shouldbeemphasized that,for theM he priority socio-economic factor that has thathas factor socio-economic he priority he inevitable consequenceofstronghe inevitable espite significant economicdevelopment oscow region, compared withBeijing, oscow region, there are more than urrently, free 27new economic 3 is1270millionm T hus, in 2010, in T here isahigh 2 ccording to annually. A oscow oscow % of T he he 3 t .

45 ENVIRONMENT 46 ENVIRONMENT considered regions has identified demographic situation in the Analysis of the the healthstate ofthepopulation. pronounced on negative impact do not have typically factors a daily by more than1900.A estimates, thenumber of cars isincreasing conditions. I coal asfuel, climatic andextreme fuel andenergy system thatuses water, of drinking poor quality ofwater resourcesshortage and in Beijing include Specific factors state oftheatmosphere. significant trafficload, andpoor transformation oftheterritory, the strong anthropogenic and M the population of the Beijing influencing thehealthstate of T from 2011to 2020. lines andopen78metro stations of new build more than 160 km built by 2020.M trains will be electrical suburban 6 light-rail lines, and6linesof subway16 new lines(stations), of theBeijingmetropolitan area, trains. A suchassubways andelectrical transportation, is thedevelopment ofalternative modesof Another possiblesolutionto thisproblem inbothregions.intensity degrees ofimplemented withvarying vehicles. and control ofexhaustpollutantsfrom standardization offuelfor localvehicles, licensing of trucks new and motorcycles, include oftheairquality deterioration T vehicles more thandoubled. years,two thenumberofregistered motor cars inM official datain2011,thenumberofregistered he main measures to prevent the further hus, thecommonfactors oscow regions include ccording to thedevelopment plan oscow was4.1million.O T hese activities arehese activities beingcurrently n M oscow plansto oscow, these medico- ccording to ver thelast number ofresidents, respectively. than 65years is13.1 %and8.4ofthetotal population olderthan60years andolder for menand82.4years for women. in 2010was80.5 years, with 78.6years forLife expectancy thepopulationofBeijing from about6millionto 11.9million. 1969 to 2010, thepopulationhasincreased similar.the rate of increase isvery is quantitatively lesspronounced; however, T migrants were recorded. in 2010.I from 2to 10million,reaching 19.7million 1949 to 1990, thepopulationhasincreased in Beijing,impact where from in the period of population growth factor as the important he growth ofthepopulationM n addition,in2010,2.3million Fig. 3. Life expectancy) expectancy) Life 3. Fig. T hus, from a – men a – oscow T he b – women b – (2010) Moscow in and respiratory diseases(5 %). and respiratory poisoning (15 %),digestive diseases(6 %), malignant neoplasms (17 system (55 %), diseases ofthecirculatory The maincauses ofdeathinMoscow are breast cancer. P growth of2.5 25.7 system. M endocrine and poisoning,injuries and diseases of the cardiovascular diseases, diseases, respiratory The main causes of death in Beijing are cancer, for women (Fig. 3a–b). years, with69.4years for menand77.7years in Life expectancy revailing malignancies includelungand % of total mortality and has the annual % of total mortality % over thepast 10 years. M oscow is lower, i.e., 73.6 ortality from canceris ortality %), injury and %), injury Zhou etal., 2011; concentration ofpeople[Ngeow etal., 2005; occur usuallyincitieswithasignificant region, suchasSARSswineflu, etc. Epidemics emergence andspread infectionsinthe ofnew T due to climate change[ ofChina becoming relevant to theterritory infectious diseases, suchastheplague, is dangerousThe return ofsomeparticularly and 5). dysentery, (Figs. and infectious diarrhea) 4 infections (typhoid,paratyphoid,bacillary of infectious diseases, includingintestinal in Beijing, there isasignificant incidence analyzed regions, itshouldbenoted that C he specialproblems includeperiodic onsidering thestate ofhealththeonsidering plays the important role.plays theimportant past,obviouslythe historical of thepopulation,including in of thepopulationhealth.Lifestyle significant differences in the state in natural conditions result in differencesstate oftheairquality), significant traffic load, and poor transformation oftheterritory, as the strong anthropogenic status of the population (such affecting thehealthfactors number ofsimilarenvironmental that these regionsthe fact have a following conclusions. D the studiedregions ledto the geographical situationof Analysis ofthemedico- 000 population)(Fig. 6). diseases(28per100 respiratory (44 per100000population),and population), digestive diseases neoplasms (209per100000 100 000population),malignant cardiovascular disease(648per of chronic diseases such as I C n M onclusion oscow, there isprevalence Y ang etal., 2012]. W ang etal, 2009]. espite

47 ENVIRONMENT 48 ENVIRONMENT

Fig. 4. Morbidity of bacillary dysentery and infectious diarrhea in Beijing (2010) Fig. 5. Morbidity of typhia and typhoid in Beijing (2010)

49 ENVIRONMENT 50 ENVIRONMENT Fig. 6. Mortality from cardiovascular diseases in cities and districts of the Moscow region (2010): region Moscow the of districts and cities in diseases cardiovascular from Mortality 6. Fig. a – men, b – women b – men, a –

m 10. associated withtheorganization ofthe can be and life expectancy of mortality Significant differences inthemajorcauses diseases.level ofchronic non-communicable as alarge center, industrial results inthehigh developmentterm oftheM outbreaks ofinfectious diseases. a significant number of migrants and entails areasdevelopment ofnew ofBeijingattracts state of the populationhealth. economic changesisalsoreflected inthe V

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chemicals //M Boas M.,Feldt-Rasmussen U P of the mortality ofthepopulationfor ofenvironmental thepurpose //P monitoring of themortality lems ofRegional E (2003). – M.: level (2014)// M of theM population of P Ngeow makov, D // HumanE B.Revich, A. (2010)Environmental andhealth:vulnerable areas andpopulations priorities community-acquired pneumonia. I A., Cheong dioxide, andsulfurdioxide, Recommendations nternational statisticalclassificationofdiseasesandrelatednternational healthproblems. ICD ing-I ress, M hartova, N. V S.M.,hartova, alkhazova, D edico- ., Koroleva, E.G.(2011)nvironment S.M.,Koroleva, alkhazova, and Human ealth:A anual. – M.:Geography Faculty ofM alkhazova, S.M., alkhazova, hartova, N. V S.M.,hartova, alkhazova, ng L.,P Y oscow. – pp. 38–43. oscow region: M ., .I., Shcherbakov, E.M –.:MAKS P emographic Forecasting: StudyGuide(2011)P Suwanjutha Y cology. №7.pp. 3–9. . (2005)An ark ark M W edicine, olecular andC oscow region // Geoenvironmental orld HealthOrganization.orld 32 р. S., cology. №4.pp. 154–160. emenov, S on air quality guidelines for particulate matter, guidelinesforWHO onairquality particulate ozone, nitrogen ohn J., A V ndicators for the S., ol. 1. –741p. sian study on the prevalence of atypical respiratory pathogens in pathogensin respiratory sian studyontheprevalence ofatypical oscow region, edico-geographical aspects.GEOS,M edico-geographical hantarojanasriri Chantarojanasriri WHO (2005). V ., M ziah A.,Liu .Y T ellular Endocrinology. No. 355(2).P T he rapid he rapid he long- hartova, N.V u, Shartova, ., Krainov, patial-temporal analysis of the mortality ofthe . (2013)Spatial-temporal analysisofthemortality M. (2011) ain K. nt. Journal ofI nt. Journal oscow State University. – 180p. Y WHO E V ., S .N., Orlov, D T 2013 the RussianGeographical S (RFBR) №12-05-91175-ГФЕН_а, P the RussianFoundation for BasicResearch T development. health system intheregions andlevels ofits China (NFSC National Natural S 24, 2013)andP A ress. – 360p. eto ., his work was supported by the grant of his was work supported cknowledgements W ., Gurov, A.N.(2010) uropean Region, W ang F., SanielM., T nfectious Diseases. hyroid disrupting effects ofendocrine P1 ., C P adiarto M., ecilia L.,NganCHadiarto – non-repayable assistance, June roblems of New .S (2012)patial-temporal analysis ). rokhorov, B.B., I n roject №41110117ofthe oscow – 112p. cience Foundation of WHO (2002). . 240–248. lejandria Alejandria T he populationhealth V ol. 9.pp. 144–153. M oscow. ociety (№05/ ociety vanova, E.I.,Sh- M., HsuehP roject of – T raining M ood Hood edia- rob -10. ., ., -

51 ENVIRONMENT 52 ENVIRONMENT 18. y 17. w 16. w 15. 14. C Health andthe Environment oftheI ommittee ofM virus inswineherds, P Zhou H., China. Beijing:S influenza A(H1N1)virusesinpigs, China.Emerg I T G. Klein, A.Rechkemmer,G. Klein, &F. S M Rushton L ., ElliottP owards SustainableGlobalHealth.Bonn,Germany. pp. 77–84. ang H.,QiaoC edical Bulletin.No. 68.Р. 113–128. ang Z., ang W .Y W Chen ., Krafft ., Krafft ang C., edical Geography, theGeographical S H., Zheng cience P T ang X.,Chen T Y rbanization andhealth- . (2008)Urbanization . (2003)E ang Yang Linsheng, P Resources Research, ChineseA Wang Wuyi, and Simulation,I Svetlana M.Malkhazova isD eople’s ofChina.Emerg Republic I e is the co-chair oftheC environmental health.Heistheco-chair of and southwest parts northeast for yearshealth. Heworked two intheI environmental especiallyto human changeanditsimpact China. Since1975, Resources Research, diseases in most poverty areas such as diseases in most poverty cooperativeprojects andinternational projectsrelated endemic from 1984 to 1986. and several textbooks, andmedicalenvironmental atlases. the author of over 250 scientific publications, including 10 books, relate to biogeography, ecology, and medical geography. L of theD omonosov M Y ress; 264. ., Kang C.,henHJinM.(2011)P ., GuoXKang Y ., Simulation, W valuating evidence onenvironmentalvaluating evidence //British healthrisks u K. (2009) u K. Y ), chairman of the Geographicalnternational U nion (IGU),chairman ., XinChenH.(2012)umaninfection from avian-like epartment ofBiogeography,epartment Faculty ofGeography, chmidt (E P oscow State University. rofessor,P ofLand Surface Laboratory Key rofessor, P ofLandSurface Laboratory Key nstitute ofGeographic S I nstitute of Geographic T ypes and He was the ds.), S W Chinese ang hasengagedinthestudyof P ource- nfect Dis18.pp. 1144–1146. ociety ofChina. ociety istribution of Distribution cademy ofS . S Challenges for China.I A PI indifferent national scientific c. inGeography, P cademy of nfect Dis17.pp. 1757–1759. ublication S T hina, and risk of urban of urban China, and risk he mainresearch interests mperial C mperial ciences, Beijing, China. S T ciences andNatural andemic (H1N1)2009 ciences and Natural P ibet, lague Natural Foci in erires ofUN-EHS: S ciences, Beijing, ollege L L ommission on rofessor, Head oess n M.Exner, P ondon lateau, attern attern attern attern She is Dmitry S. Dmitry WangLi, Natalya V. ShartovahasP LiHairong, A Natural Resources Research, C P Beijing, China. publications. environmental epidemiology. Heistheauthorof30scientific scientific interests includeecology, medicalgeography, and Geography, L in2008.HeisS University Natural Resources Research, C P Beijing, China. and S S the authorof35scientificpublications. populationhealth.Sheis problems ecologyandurban ofurban geography andhumanecology,inrelation to the particularly State University. Hermainresearch interests are inmedical attern and Simulation,I attern attern andSimulation,I attern cientific Researcher, oil Geography, Faculty ofGeography, L Research A Orlov ssociate omonosov M graduated from theL urface ofLandSurface Laboratory ssistant, Key D P rofessor, Key epartment of epartment nstitute ofGeographic S nstitute ofGeographic S oscow hD degree inGeography. Sheis cientific Researcher, Faculty of hinese A hinese A State aboratory of Laboratory andscape Geochemistry Landscape Geochemistry omonosov M cademy of S cademy of S University. omonosov M Land ciences and ciences and oscow State H ciences, is main ciences, urface Surface oscow

53 ENVIRONMENT 54 ENVIRONMENT as milk, cereals, as milk, baby food, bottled water, Switzerland company, foods such markets 2011; cause monopolies[ V disadvantages ofglobalisation ismonopolies. advantages and disadvantages. One of the and environment level”. Globalisationhas trade ofinternational interms and services growth for of global goods capital markets identifies globalisation as “creation and terms used recently. [1998: 91] Burke “Globalization” isoneofthemostpopular rural population exploitation ofenvironmental resources, strong environmental sustainability, exploitation ofenvironmental resources. ways: cheaplabour, unethical policies, companies increase theirprofits inthree on environmental issuesindicate thatthese creates monopolies. 2 % from O 3 from S 32 America, of39 %fromcomprised North different geographical areas. established in20different in6 countries T amountedworld to US$1,332,070million. of thetop 100food companies inthe level. I tradeandenvironmentinternational at for goodsandservices markets by creation and growthcapitalglobal of Zealand; e-mail: [email protected]; e-mail: LIC (Livestock Improvement Corporation), Road, 140Riverlea Hamilton, New Emel Okur-Berberoglu Introduction K Abstract Resources Exploitation by he headquarters ofthesecompaniesarehe headquarters ertical or horizontal firm cooperation may or horizontal firm ertical ey % from E words Global hukla, 2004]. ForShukla, instance Nestlé, a n year 2013,thetotal food sales merica, 3 %fromouth America, Nordic, and . ceania. Globalization potentially urope, 21

Globalization isdetermined : Globalfood companies, M % from A Eastern OECD ost of the literatures Food and , 1998;P T he food sales of Rural sia, otter, Environmental C % ompanies [Bernardi and 2005], I Danone, 1996],I of Zealand’sNew Fonterra, P Dairy world. Nestléisalsoincooperationwith pet food, andicecream allover the consumers. consumer interface,manufacturing, of five steps: Farming, processing, co-op to consumers. the food supply process from farming the C Budin [2006: 743] presented a diagram at is alsoa “loser” somewhere. Kumarand of gaining maximum profit, it means there However if there is a “winner” with the aim win strategies” [ T global scale. foodare companiesonthe important FoodsKohinoor Limited [M I 743] stagebutnotenvironmental resources. processing [p.the useofwater attheco-op For exampleKumarandBudinmentioned as ruralpopulationandbrown revolution. resources andsocialsideofproductionsuch consideration for naturalorenvironmental significant pointshave beenforgotten: without contamination.However some products to consumers indelivery important Business, 2006].I brown revolution attheconference [Global related to eitherenvironmental resources or and ruralpopulation. on environmentalnegative impact resources couldprofitwhich they withouthaving a would theways have in seriously taken nterestingly there was not any subject hese companiesoperate through “win- merica. France’sAmerica. onference ofGlobalBusinessshowing communities reland’s North Kerry M reland’s Kerry North T he chain was considered very he chainwasconsidered very Chung andGillespie, 1998]. White, 2006],andI taly’s P T t isassumedcompanies he diagram comprised armalat [Goldberg,armalat Danone [Groupe alcolm, 2010] ilk P

artners roduct ndia’s T he

A ofmodels: mention explainingofavariety researchesmanagement ormarketing what environment wants. Business, 2005] However donotthink globalfirms consumer wants[Gottfredson andA M Environmental resources [ER] Food and A de C Fornazier, P Neands, 2011;P mentioned inresearches [Gomesand equation. E related to environmental resources inthis equation butthere wasnotany component to explainfoodtried balancethrough an P equilibrium. 4 stagesfor FSE.Oneofthemisecological develop ofrural area andlow- income helpedtoCEO ofNestlésaid thatthey according to Neves. second onewasenvironmental protection integration, franchiseesetc]vertical andthe [for entrance, instancemoney joint-ventures, was governance structureoftheinvestments subject investment. Butthefirstimportant environmental resources for food and sector of Neves [2011:5]mentionedtheimportance researches hadanthropogenic perspective. Find, Get, [ 2011; P P [Gomes andNeves, 2011;Neves, 2011; weresubjects rarely referred atresearches conference. I T A T attheseresearches.superficial However ecological componentswere very environmental componentsinthis system. value system andthere were sustainable and M model [Food [P S T here were 192oralpresentations at the he annualconference ofIF ocial Responsibility] and ocial Responsibility] acheco deC ssociation] was held at Frankfurt in 2011. N eweldemedhin, 2011],CSR[ rado andM arketing researchesarketing focus onwhat DC [ arvalho, 2011].Forarvalho, examplethere are erlo [2011]explainedCSRand erlo rado andM A ndctor E ndctor M cological certification wasalso cological certification anage] [Garcia, 2011], FSE frame ozas, Steffens, 2011].P t wasseenthatenvironmental acheco deC S arvalho, 2011;P arvalho, erlo, 2011], gribusiness M ecurity ecurity adula, Oliveira, C rror erlo, 2011,]andthese E C quation] [P AMA [I orrection] modelorrection] arvalho [2011:18] arvalho Y valuesystem WFGM [ adula etal., nternational nternational anagement C entenaro, orporate acheco spinall, W rado ant, Y

A lifeon urban especiallyinA and this massive population also stresses T the ruralpopulation. however population is more the urban than 2014]. D was around 3.3billioninJune, 2014[UN, around 3.8billionandtheruralpopulation as refugees. populationsurvive 0.6 %oftheworld nearly refugee allover in2014;itmeans theworld statistics there are more than43million 2002]. A is called “brown revolution” [E more qualifiedlife. [F developed as countries refugee to have and thepopulationofruralarea migrates to inruralarea tradecausepoverty international of themalsorelated and to globalfirms some wrong nationalmacro policieswhich is interested inagriculture. Unfortunately Nations. Especiallypopulationofruralarea fish, and waterlivestock, according to T is related to agriculture directlyorindirectly. agriculture. T Brown revolution of aniceberg. 66–67]. I environmental [Danone, 2011: sustainability company of successfulinterms wasfairly ofDanone[2011],the Report Sustainability producers [Goldberg, 2005].A W that brown revolution isunstoppable. and reality. expectation a gapisbecomebetween sociallifeto nonadaptationinurban and 2003]. W it mightbe slowed. Onthe other hand is not desirable as economically. However says thatstopping thebrown revolution the ruralpopulation life and withinternal utters thatgovernments shouldsupport his migrantarea populationsettlesurban ofagriculture are cereal,he mainparts oil, he basic food resource of world is merica [ LatinAmerica frica, epartment of epartment orld A orld orld A orld T T he urban and rural ration is nearly 1:1 and rural ration is nearly he urban he rural population is also exposed ccording to United Nations[2014] t isthought that thisis visible side griculture report ofF griculture report gricultural Report [2003] report [2003]report gricultural Report One third of the world population T T he E he urban population washe urban E conomic and S AO conomist [2002] says , 2003] W orld A orld Sahran sia, Sub- T his migration ccording to ocial A AO [2003] griculture, conomist, United ffairs, T he

55 ENVIRONMENT 56 ENVIRONMENT 1997] etc. [Gough,technocentrism ecocentrism, M anthropocentric environmentalism, E greendark environmentalism, lightgreen 2010],ecocentric ecopedagogy [Kahn, ofecological perspective:a variety ruraldevelopment? support Is itreally truethatglobalfirms to becomeunderdevelopment. are globalsocompaniescauserural A [ promotes weak environmental sustainability thattechnocentrism However itisknown technocentrism [Slater, 1997]. 1991; Gough, development, security, welfare according to environment. and anthropocentric approach to natural ofmanagerial isakind but technocentrism explain ecological oneby perspective one Goudie, 1982;M andHamilton, 1997; F Diesendorf policy.external M theway therebetween By isacontradiction [ears ofmouse].[SANZ,2009] importance and socialcomponentshave thesecond ofdevelopment [headofmouse];ER part A usethismodel.developing countries [MM] economicmodelandmostofthe WES mightbeoccurred by M [ or undeveloped countries development ofOECD interms ofurban studies usuallyfocus onsupporting and economy [ thedevelopmentdetermining ofruralarea geographic for locationisanessentialfactor development because thanurban important revolution”. Rural development is now more calls revival of rural population as “green population andER[S [M whileERincreases geometrically aslinearly related to ER.Humanpopulationincreases as says that increment of human population is strong environmental because sustainability so it may cause WES] [ griculture, orcompanies 2003].Butfirms ccording to MMeconomy isthebiggest althus arxisizm, ecofeminism [L arxisizm, althus, 1973]. C ole, 2000]. T heory and heory T he aimofthisstudyisnotto T he usage of ERis licit for human W T ol, 2001;OECD WES. here isunbalancebetween orld A orld T he E eidl and However it is needed MM model. griculture, 2003]. conomist [2002] ummis, 2002], T , 1998; ickey M ickey , developing C isdell, 1998] ole, 2000; T AO here are M , 2003; althus W ouse orld orld T co- he [ that M limited. [SANZ,2009].I ER isvery a. these top companies. C to evaluate Appendix1. areas. D according to geographicalthe headquarters through websites ofthemandclassified ofcompanies theheadquarters determined million] according to 2013. ofrankandfoodname interms sales[$ sustainability reports [for reports instanceDanone, sustainability b. d. M c. M world W Food Engineering [2014]publishedthe “ companies hadthemosteffective profits. I sustainability andruralpopulation. of globalfood companies onenvironmental attentionof thisstudyisto dangerous take 2003; Stahel, 1998].I brought by theglobaleconomy [F services consume 80 %or86ofthegoodsand emphasize populations that20 %ofworld probably stillsamebecausesome researches oftheworld. the otherparts the world produce much more food than of Allaby [1986:180]says thatsomeparts also addedto formula ormodellingstudy. human individualism/selfishnessshouldbe and and [Emmel, 1976;S T P used by globalfirms. Results Methodology t was determined firstly which global App. 1]. heory by formula ormodellingstudy heory opulation biology tries to explainM opulation biologytries ommon properties take attention among take ommon properties orld’s T T hey arehey globalcompanies hey havehey agentsandsalesallover the ost ofthemhave widerangeofproducts. U ost ofthem have environmental yenoyoma, 2004].I yenoyoma, ickey M ickey T escriptive analysewasusedinorder op 100Food & Beverage C T his listonlyincludedcompany ouse economicmodelisalso eidl and n this perspective the aim theaim n thisperspective T hese are: T isdell, 1998;Singh t is thought that t isthoughtthat T T he authoralso his situation is his situationis t isthought ompanies’ althus T AO he , , companies [32]. but USAhasthemostoftop globalfood is doneby Nestle[77,810million$,App. 1] to US$1,332,070million. 100 food companies in the world amounted I population andfuture. results drawreport apinktablefor human oneby onebutitisthoughtthat reports T development orenvironmental sustainability. are successful in terms of sustainable 2011; Nestle, 2011]andthesecompanies [ Globalization potentially creates monopolies. 3 % from Nordic, and 2 % from O from A Eastern % from 32 A merica, E North T in6differentcountries geographical areas. companies are establishedin20different n year 2013, the total food sales of the top T he aimofthisstudyisnotto cruisethese he food of39 %from salescomprised able 1] Nordic O S astern A Eastern E North America North Geographical area urope outh America ceania Table 1. Classifying of Global Food Firms According to Country and Geographical Area Geographical and Country to According Firms Food Global of Table 1. Classifying sia sia, % 3from S T he headquarters ofthese he headquarters T he mostfood sales T D New ZealandNew A Brazil T China Japan A Belgium I I Switzerland Netherlands Germany UK France C C M USA Country name Country reland taly otal hailand uba anada ustralia ustria enmark exico merica, outh America, urope, 21 % ceania. Francis, and 2006;Garcia, 2004;Sarkar [Francisexamples atdocumentaries and interesting andsignificant case studiesor orbooksbutthere are in scientificarticles to profit resources ofglobalfood companies T limited. ER? more employees? D muchmoreearn inspite money ofhaving indirectly [ has around 4.5millionemployees directlyor etc. P companies promote salary job opportunity, positive.are very I year becausecompanies’ annual reports how thesecompaniesincrease profit every according to directfooddeveloping countries sector I Discussion t is understood that developed and Number ofcompany he authorcouldnotfindcasestudies related W eter Brabeck, CEOofNestle, sayseter Nestle Brabeck, R is very is a closesystem andERisvery orld 20 17 32 3 1 1 3 1 3 1 1 3 4 4 5 5 8 1 3 1 3 W agenhofer, 2005]. T able 1.Butthebigquestionis o they alsohaveo they endless t is clear that global How do they 100 21 32 39 % 3 2 3

57 ENVIRONMENT 58 ENVIRONMENT [ for1996], in Romania planting of vegetables and for [Sarkar planting rice Similar resultsLanka alsohappened inSri permanent and extreme malnutrition in malnutrition and extreme permanent suffermillion people intheworld from coffee [Francis andFrancis, 2006].842 world. [ ofthe andthelargestcountries soya exporter However agrarian Brazilisoneoftherichest cannotsurvive. andthey areso they hungry government doesnotsubsidize littlefarmers P the other hand, ruralfarmer migrate to and so gained up everything cheap prices A at SandagarM EU or P on agricultural productionandexportation. governments subsidize to own go farmers T people inI from I Switzerland. I A developed. isvery sector but banking Switzerland has not got any natural resources oftheFood, ontheRight Reporter says that Bralia area, Ziegler, Jean Romania. UNSpecial and dailywageoflabourer is50centin agricultural country after France after inE agricultural country [Goldberg, isthesecond 2005].Romania causes to loosejobofruralpopulation population butunjustglobalcompetition companies. Cheaplabourisobtainedby rural C Cheap labour labour, wrong policy, exploitationofER. increases their profits by three ways: cheap I these resources are coherent each other. and L Geographic], andotherpopularbooks[King 2009W Subramanian, 1996; t isobvious thatglobalfood companies W he other weird thing is EU ernambuco/ North- eastern, Brazil says that Brazilsays eastern, that North- ernambuco/ eople can find easily agricultural products of eople canfindeasilyagricultural productsof griculture is efficient but very limited in limited in griculture is efficient but very frica. Rural farmers cannot compete with cannotcompete with Ruralfarmers frica. heap labour helpsto increase profit of labour heap agenhofer, 2005],inEthiopiafor planting ndia despite there isalotofunnourished USA with third one lower of local prices essidrenska, 2009].C essidrenska, agenhofer, 2005;],magazine[National W agenhofer, 2005; ndia. [ W t imports 4/5ofgrain for bread t imports est countries to findajob.est countries On arket where isinDakar,arket W agenhofer, 2005]. agenhofer, oechtig andGibson, W allace, 2007]. D ase studiesof e- e- Subramanian, and USA S ouza from urope W est est hybrid seeds in terms of marketing strategies strategies ofmarketing interms seeds hybrid producers in theworld. saysRomania, P Karl O Karl wrong agricultural policies[M because of [Brazil] losttheirsoilquality Faso], [Burkina Gourcy [Niger], [ Grand L [ by ofproductsdecreased. theway quantity despite oftechnological agricultural methods, all overislower becausesoilquality theworld lostagricultural marketing Almeria Almeria. U much more sincelast10–15years. money is25.000habutpeopledonotearn Almeria vegetables agriculture. A Haiti [Bourne, 2008], S Almeria/ Lieven Bruneel, whoisA effects oftechnology are againunavoidable. andmaximumtechnology.farmers Butside and wantsmaximumproductby minimum feeding. agriculture EUdoesnotsupport and Brazil [Bourne, 2007] for fuel not for soybean, andsugarcaneinUSA plant corn, Germany [ Germany etc]. Farming peoplenow grows upmaize in people retired or change the job [factory to E joined sinceGermany number offarmers from says Germany that there isdecreasing small fishing. Ontheotherhandafarmer can eat fresh fish but small fishingisneeded. I processfish are so marketing wasted during industrialized inE the sametime. M happen atdevelopment but side-effects technology,support and industrialisation, Governmental agriculture policies Wrong Policy isalso affected onruralpopulation. policy despite of having job because wronghungry 2005 [ W W oess rbanization isalsohappenedaroundrbanization ashington State], IssaAminatou ofKeita agenhofer, in farmlands 2005]Similarly uropean Union[EU]andmostofthese trok, Director ofproductionat P trok, W V P alley [ alley agenhofer, 2005]. lateau [Zizhou outhern Spainis capital of winterouthern W agenhofer, 2005; C olorado], arket fishing isabsolutely arket ioneer islargest seed urope andmostofthe Y unnan P does not support EU does not support T n thisway people gricultural area in gricultural area in he company uses T C T he P hese peopleare gronomist, says ountry- ountry- rovince [ W ann, 2008]. allace, 2007]; alouse H Amazonia China], hina], China], ioneer ills ills Grosso, Brazil. S producer isM ofworld Biolog natural environment to have more profit. and underdeveloped destroy countries countries. [ from other developing or underdeveloped in andsimilarevent inGermany happens basket bread inayear hasgone tomillion kilos waste says that2 On theotherhandfarmer maize for fuelnotfor feeding now. inGermany have notgotenoughfood grow butfarmers give exploitationofER.M rise W Exploitation ER of enough to survive? times. Istechnology infurther would survive is suspiciousthatifthere isnoseedhow human fertilizers. [ not suitableto grow use upsoya sofarmers area isusedto plantsoya butthislandis meter of forest is sold for one cent. landsince1975andonesquare to openfarm Forestand Japan.Amazonia Rain isdestroyed hybrids seeds. ones andnaturalseedscannotalsocopewith as of natural hybrid products is not as tasty [ itisonlyafoodstuffright; anditcanbesold. A Nestle isthebiggestbottled water supplier. natureput balancebetween and civilization. comes from nature. Nature ispitiless. Human future. Hesays thatpeoplebelieve everything responsibility ofaCEOisto have profitable P M bean etc. [Garcia, 2004; potatoes, onion,sunflower, eggplant, soya seeds. H to usehybrid companies wantruralfarmers life. [M % of this water is drinkable. S only 1 %ofthiswater isdrinkable. iscovered75 % ofworld by water but to produce another generations. cannotuseany they seed but healsowarns W eter Brabeck[ ccording to Brabeck, waterccording isnot a human to Brabeck, ann, 2008]. rong policy and wrongrong consumer behaviours policy V agenhofer, 2005]. owever Germany imports wheat wheat ienna. However imports Germany ann, 2008; V incent Jose P incent Jose ybrid seedsareybrid usedfor tomatoes, W W agenhofer, 2005; T agenhofer, 2005].D his circulation damages natural his circulation damagesnatural oya exports to E oya exports W CEO ofNestle]says social angenhofer, 2005]. Big seed uhl says the largest soya W aggi group inM angenhofer, 2005].I illions of people illions ofpeople W urope, China, allace, 2007; allace, 2007; eveloping eveloping T he taste he taste leared Cleared ome ato ato t t to havethey to sendmost oftheproduction produce something[agriculture ormine]and C dependon 12 districts another and Games T and itisunfair. I governs rest of the world in terms of food 20 countries. I but top 100globalfood companies are in T water resources ofruralpopulations. & L for producing colaandbottledwater [King C know how to liveknow at own land as peacefully. to have strongbecause they sustainability important and life ofruralpeopleare style very [1997] saysGough environmental knowledge reverse migration should happento ruralarea. rural agriculture andpopulation;inthisway andsubsidize All governments should support limited and we do not have any planetto live. localbecauseERisvery think globalandact or leasttaste andhighprice. P Besttaste marketing andlow price anymore: H What aboutrest ofpopulation? people may rich have waterBrabeck, or food. needs it. I of water and everybody But it is not true. 70 %ofhumanbodyconsist good in1974. aboutERwasevaluated ascapital warned a saleablefoodstuff. Stiglitz[1974] Similarly says itisonly water isnotahumanright; water wars[Buu, 2010].CEO ofNestleBrabeck aboutwater scarcityand of thescientistswarn not happenedyet any warfor food butmost districts in terms ofcontinentals. interms districts T is E are very poor.are very [ [S water sales were doneby Nestlein2008 bottled water in water resources ofruralareas to produce Nestle underP [ water isunderground.of thedrinkable T able 1. Rest of the world may be divided 7–8 oftheworld mayable 1. Rest be divided 7–8 here are inUN[N,2012] 193countries here iscentralarea, C apitol. ola isdrainagethegroundwater ofI uman should prefer one of the ways oechtig & Gibson,2009]. undisi & C essidrenska, 2009]. essidrenska, merica according America to urope andNorth apitol. C E very district area is specialised to district very T undisi, 2012].Ontheotherhand, apitol is very rich but districts butdistricts rich apitol is very T % of world t means10.36 %ofworld unger Games`. `HungerGames`. t isjustlike his perspective isstillsame. his perspective C pring brandusesoland Spring USA and 3.6 billion bottled ollins, 2008].Now C T his ground water is apitol, inHunger imilarly Similarly eople should eople should n terms n terms of T here has apitol apitol C ndia oca I t t

59 ENVIRONMENT 60 ENVIRONMENT dangerous ofglobalfood companieson T drought, suchasinHaiti[Bourne, 2008]. and ecological policiesmay give to rise fish; notto eatfish. is notasolution.I may give us strong environmental sustainability. ecology. flows ofmaterials, social ecology, andcultural healthandsafety,nature conservation, reduced are Stahel [1997]says trivetsofsustainability eitherenvironmentallyharmful orsociologically. and shouldberesearched. Brown revolution is 2011]. happiness [P lands.heritage U to migrate?like are Alsothey happy attheir own rural area, whycould survive would they donation by advertisement on donation by advertisement drought at should spread outto rural. Now there is to morerise monopolies. E purchase small companies anditmay give times abouteconomy? Bigcompaniesmay fish. T revolution. anymore butitisnottrue. Humanneedsgreen E

Brown revolution alsogives to rise nobody couldthisproblem yet. is anotherproblem from governments and brownis understood urbanization/ revolution

C References conomist says urbanisation is not stopped he aim of this study is to take attentionhe aimofthisstudyisto take here is an idiom at trade: Big fish eats small allaby, M.[1986].E 1. 2. 3. onclusion ho knows what will happen in further whatwillhappeninfurther Who knows Bernardi, D 2006 C day, ings2.pdf#page =238,20.06.2012. fromRetrieved http://www.quinnipiac.edu/prebuilt/pdf/academicsBG_P CT Quinnipiac University, haven, Hamden-New C 25.06.2012. from59. Retrieved http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2007/10/biofuels/biofuels-text, [2007].Biofuels:boonandboondoggle?National Geographic,Bourne, J.K. 212[4],38– T his is also a sociological perspective his isalsoasociological perspective Human need green revolution and it T P oday and eople migrate for surviving. onference on assador, Junior, P Artoni, W est A . & rbanisation does not give White, B.I [2006].AlltheRight t shouldbetaughtto frica anditiswanted frica T omorrow EUStudiesP cology facts.L W T rends inGlobal Business, rong economic conomic power TV . D WES. onation assador, ondon: HamlynP I f they f they T he he rogram, D unger Games mighthappeninfuture.Hunger Games production behaviour or strategy. behaviour mightbeeffective on responsible other people because responsible consumer W natural environment. about environmental effects ofpeopleon be explainedto have clearunderstanding casestudiesshould thought thatremarkable by formal andinformal education. I global effect ofpersonalconsumerbehaviour directly. P citizenship isrelated to strong sustainability or benefitsofconsumereducation.Global donotexplainenvironmentalthey roots education and global citizenship. is positive relationship consumer between years oldschoolchildren andfindthatthere global citizenship. consumer education and between being theresearch[2008] undertook onrelationship food [Bourne, 2008]. [ W education mightbeeffective onproduction. S P oneby one. of own tradeactivity company [ economic andecologic benefits.” E resource“higher entailshigher productivity sustainability. Stahel[1997:486]emphasizes isnotenoughtobut money have strong food companies. to give aboutglobal ageneral evaluation environmental sustainability. W iamese twins. iamese roduction and consumption are just like estern people-should empathizeestern with people-should est might countries be extravagant ngredients: Kerry Foodngredients: Group C Kerry agenhofer, 2005]while T pril 20–22,2006,230–237. April onnecticut, heme D ublishing. epartment ofI epartment eople may raiseawareness about App. 1]may beevaluated interms oing BusinessinE I t is thought that consumer t is thought that consumer T hey havehey financial power T hey studywith7–14 hey nternational Business,nternational D oherty and oherty W P eople-especially eople-especially est A T he author tries he author tries urope: frica needs needs frica O ase Study. However therwise therwise roceed- Y T ester aplin very very n t is - 18. 17. 16. 15. emmel, 14.

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65 ENVIRONMENT 66 ENVIRONMENT udzucker 41. Sudzucker 44. C 43. Y 42. DanishCrown 45. M 46. M 48. D 47. Saputo 50. C Foods49. Hormel C 51. Kerry Group 51. Kerry 52. C 53. Y 54. P 55. DMKD 56. Ajinomoto 59. Red Bull 59. Red 58. O 57. 60. S 62. M 61. ChinaM 64. M 63. M 65. GrupoM 67. Nissui 67. Nissui 66. I 68. Bongrain 69. DrP 70. LVMH 71. M 76. Sapporo Holdings 75. I S 74. Nisshin 73. Bacardi 72. 79. Barilla 79. Barilla 78. I 77. 80. T T T T ngredion I toham Foods to En ate &L amazaki Baking Baking amazaki ershey C he Hershey mucker C he JMSmucker haiBev ili Group ili odiaal armalat armalat oca C oca C ampbell S ean Foods C etker Groupetker uller Group aruha Nichiro Holdings aruha Nichiro arfrig Group arfrig cC orinaga M orinaga cC epper SnappleGroup ormick C ormick ain Foods L ola HBC ola Enterprises eutsches M yle airy C engniu Dairy odelo [M eifun Group nc. oup C ilk I orporation ompany ompany ndustry ndustry Company td orporation orporation ompany exico] ompany ilchkontor ilchkontor ompany Germany Japan D Switzerland Japan Brazil USA C USA USA I USA China I Germany Japan Germany USA A France China Japan France Germany USA M Japan France USA France USA Japan Japan USA Japan C Japan UK I T reland taly taly hailand uba anada ustria enmark exico Country astern A Eastern E Nordic E astern A Eastern S North America North North America North America North North America North E North America North astern A Eastern E E E America North A Eastern E astern A Eastern E astern A Eastern E E North America North North America North astern A Eastern E North America North E astern A Eastern A Eastern America North America North North America North astern A Eastern E A Eastern astern A Eastern E urope urope urope urope urope urope urope urope urope urope urope urope urope urope outh America Geographical Area sia sia sia sia sia sia sia sia sia sia sia sia Food Sales 10,750 10,210 10,675 2013 9,555 9,530 9,400 9,050 8,752 9,016 8,212 8,115 8,052 7,585 7,436 7,365 7,100 7,146 7,185 7,005 6,950 6,885 6,860 6,825 6,810 6,653 6,776 6,145 6,128 5,997 5,820 5,611 5,730 5,280 5,390 5,600 5,003 4,985 5,170 4,915 4,850 Continue 83. Barry C 83. Barry Food82. Nissin P 81. M 90. M 89. T 88. QPC 87. C 86. LandO 85. S 84. C 91. D 94. Japan 93. JRSimplot 92. M 95. H 100. E.&J. Gallo 99. DEM 98. A 97. Groupe Bel 96. D Total singtao Brewery singtao chreiber Foods oca C oca- gropur C illshire Brands ole Food C el M axingvest/T aple L olson C orporation orporation aster Blenders1753 C onte Foods C T ola allebaut ola Amatil ’ I Lakes obacco I eaf Foods oors Brewing C ooperative W ompany, I est W roducts chibo nc. inery Company nternational nternational ompany nc. ompany Japan Germany China Japan Japan USA USA A Switzerland C USA USA USA Switzerland Netherlands C France USA USA USA anada anada ustralia Country astern A Eastern E astern A Eastern A Eastern A Eastern America North America North O E North America North North America North America North America North E E America North E America North America North North America North urope urope urope urope urope ceania Geographical Area sia sia sia sia 1,332,070 Food Sales 2013 4,810 4,757 4,498 4,500 4,620 4,696 4,408 4,475 4,495 4,292 4,100 4,206 4,247 4,035 3,605 3,770 3,780 3,819 3,920 3,600 Continue

67 ENVIRONMENT 68 ENVIRONMENT 1 permafrost andground ice. increase inpressure from gasemissionsfrom unfrozen water content, leadingto an ground temperatures andanincrease in conclude that it originated from warmer of thecrater’s development, theauthors impossible and improbable versions relatively narrow, deepcrater. Excluding formed permafrost feature in aform of visits to a newly short data obtained during crater. permafrost feature: arelatively narrow, deep visitsto formed anewly short during T cryolithozone, pingo, pockmarks gashydrates,cryopegs, climate fluctuations, processes provinces. ingas-bearing studies ofgas-hydrate behavior andsubsea of palaeo-geography processes inthe by known is alsosupported 4 3 2 O.Marina Leibman Irina D.Irina Streletskaya * [email protected] author; e-mail: and photo andvideodocumentation ofthe Our fieldstudyincluded size measurements their origin anurgent task. elsewhere thestudyof intheregion, making to theirformation may already beunderway media publications, theprocesses leading recentlyreported inanumberofmass- Abstract Introduction Key (West to deep Ne State Institution Center“Scientific for Arcticstudy”, Salekhard,Russia Lomonosov Moscow State University, Faculty ofGeography, Russia Tyumen State University, OilandGas Tyumen, Russia Institute, Cryosphere RussianAcademyThe Earth ofSciences, Branch Siberian his paperisbasedonfielddataobtained words local w permafrost A s new featuress new this have like been .

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Y Siberia his paperisbasedonfield amal crater, tabularground ice, Y 1, 2 amal lakes andrecentamal lakes climate 3* , Alexander I.Kizyakov T his conclusion in , Russia) as Central feature fluctuations previously. discussed inthispaperhasbeenreported No landform like thecraterNo landform inC like predicting suchprocesses inthefuture. of its development, and to lay a basis for exclude impossibleandimprobable versions hypotheses ofthecrater’s formation, to was to outlinetherangeofpossible T feature andthesurrounding environment. is based on the known cryolithology and cryolithology is basedonthe known and tabularground ice. initially frozen depositsenclosing cryopegs hydrate inclusions, the release of gas out of formation involves thedecay ofrelictgas- T etal., 2006]. Gilichinsky, 1996;Rivkina and in theorganic-rich horizons [Rivkina and gas-hydrate accumulations are localized and lithologyofthepermafrost. in theArcticdependsonage, origin deposits of methanein frozen Quaternary et al, 2006]. et al, 1998; Rivkina [Skorobogatov permafrost and to the surface hydrocarbon into collectors theupper the migration ofmethanefrom deep-seated I O 1992; Hovland etal., 2002;M since the1970’s [Hovland andJudd, 1988; anddiscussed have beenknown pockmarks, t isestablished that permafrost prevents he main objective ofthereconnaissancehe mainobjective he authors’ main hypothesis for the crater’s tto, 2014]. 3 , Andrei V. Plekhanov Y a Y et similar forms, seabed amal – – response

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C 4 , oncentration ironyuk and entral

T he gas Y amal

filled with low-density ice. filled withlow-density tabular ground and some voids ice, cryopegs [ clays the gaswascontainedinice-bearing 20to 130m.M in thedepthinterval borehole andhighcontent inthesamples, manifestations, suchasemissionoutofthe field [ 2009].Boreholes[Rokos, atBovanenkovo gas from 70to 130mbeneaththeseafloor seas effusion undertheBarents andKara shown by methane and hydrogen sulfide is from nearthesurface thecollectors T etal., etal., 1997]. 2006;Gilichinsky [Rivkina 2009], whichareby thepermafrost blocked emission was14,000m 2003]. AnalysisofdC treletskaya etal.,Streletskaya 2014; Y frozen deposits ofcoastalexposures onthe methane concentrationmeasured inthe concentration [Hovland etal., 2002]. more than0.1ml/lisconsidered ahigh seas, [M sediments may exceed 1ml/linthe Arctic M C [L same rangeasintabularground icebubbles 2008]. matter inthepermafrost. [Bondarev etal., a biochemicalorigin ofthisgasinorganic returns results around – 70‰,indicating layers ofpermafrost inBovanenkovo area gas concentrations[ Bovanenkovo studiesrevealed substantial treletskaya andL [Streletskaya the Bovanenkovo gasfieldinvestigations in with mostofthestudiesperformed ofpermafrost intheregion, geochemistry [L of theatmosphere by anorder ofmagnitude concentrations ofmethaneexceeding that searegion haveice oftheKara shown Studies of gas bubbles in tabular ground accumulates invoids withinthepermafrost. al., 2008].F. Are (1998)alsosuggeststhatgas Y amal canreach andintabular 1.7ml/kg he possibility ofthereleasehe possibility ofthegas ardyn etal., etal., 2007;Streletskaya 2014]. ein etal., 2003; ein etal., 2003;L akushev, 2009]. ethane concentration in modern marine marine ethane concentrationinmodern Chuvilin, 2007]revealed gas various T he isotopic compositioniswithinthe ironyuk andO T hese clays alsoenclosed Chuvilin, 2007; V anshtein et al., 2003; eibman etal., 2003; eibman, 2003]. 13 tto, 2014] whileeven (CH 3 /day [Bondarev et T he maximumgas V 4 anshtein etal., ) intheupper Y akushev, ost of T T he he zone, a subzone tundra, about of typical T preceding winter wasatamediumlevel. this period, though precipitation the during in 2012wascloseto themaximumlevel for T ( climatic parameters have beenobserved the 2000s, no transportation. and including areas gasextraction ofactive since 2006( winter of 2011–2012 were the warmest with high tabular ground ice content. continuous permafrost at least300mthick, and theNadui- limited by the T concentration oforganic matter. ofthedeposits,ice, thesalinity and landforms to connected tabularground of permafrost, to and(c) other comparison could have state caused changes in thermal shore landform, that (b)climate fluctuations on- region asanaloguesoftheobserved from sea gas-release processes intheKara analysis of (a) existing features resulting hypothesized in this paper is based on the T etal.,[Streletskaya 2014]. ground iceeven more, asmuch as2.2ml/kg T permafrost. mechanism offormation: gasrelease inthe ofairtemperature,rise butpresenting anew features found in2014result from thesame lakes.P and thermokarst denudation landforms (thermocirques) ground icebodiesandcreate thermal thaw the rapidchangesonsurface, snow accumulation. fluctuations in both air temperature and Ground temperature changesresult from by changesinground temperature. Study T he crater islocated inthe he summerof2012andthepreceding he central part ofthe he centralpart he release ofthisgascouldbetriggered hus theorigin ofthe able 1). area T able 1).Summerprecipitation T T able fluctuations of various of various able fluctuations Y Y he region isinthezone of uribei River inthesouth River uribei akha River in the north, inthenorth, River akha W armer air can trigger aircantrigger armer Y T robably, thenew amal P undra bioclimatic Y amal crater eninsula is I n

69 ENVIRONMENT 70 ENVIRONMENT the YaNAO governor) the of press-service Zulinova, by M. (Photo landslides by cryogenic disturbed and shrubs willow by high vegetated are that slopes gentle with by hills surrounded and by aparapet encircled is 1. crater Fig. The hill about34mabove sealevel. shores (Fig. 1). landslideshave thelake disturbed Cryogenic vegetated by willow shrubsupto 1.5mhigh. ravines andlakes. 52 mhave gentleslopesdescendingto small hillswithaltitudeuptoand 68°22’E).Rolling southofHalev- about 11km west of the 17 km Year/summer M 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 ean Table 1. Main climatic controls of the thermal state of permafrost according according permafrost of state thermal the of controls Table climatic 1. Main T he crater islocated onasmall Mean annual Mean to weather station Marre-Sale records (http://rp5.ru/Bovanenkovsky) air temperature, °С T –8,0 –5,0 –5,0 –8,3 –8,1 –4,4 –4,1 –6,4 –8,2 M he slopesare densely – ordy- Y T akha River and River akha ake (69°58’N o Lake (35 days) °С index, 12.06– Thaw Thaw 178,5 16.07 711 900 804 803 517 755 999 784 744 · day precipitation, Summer mm 201 146 385 244 204 188 305 240 244 – continuous permafrost. T 1997, Fig.1997, 2). ground iceseveral meters thick( matter, several bearing layers oftabular deposits, iniceandorganic rich silty-clayey T layer°С, andtheactive isupto 1mdeep. ground temperature may beaslow as–6 he geological section isrepresentedhe geological section by he crater area is within the zone of 2006–2007 2007–2008 2008–2009 2009–2010 2010–2011 2011–2012 2012–2013 2013–2014 season Winter – – 28.09–11.06 (257 days) °С Freeze index, –3049 –2748 –2974 –3785 –2788 –2271 –3105 –2995 –3238 · day T he average precipitation, Ananieva, Winter mm 136 218 253 140 247 190 144 190 – – in theexposures attheshores ofHalev- H created thermokarst lakes dammed by lakes created thermokarst landslides, which occurrence ofcryogenic as well. isfoundLake, inthecrater’s surroundings The Earth Cryosphere Institute SB RAS) SB Institute Cryosphere Earth The Dvornikov, by Yu.A. (Photo River Mordy-Yakha the of east Yamal, Central in Athermocirque 3. Fig. YaNAO governor) the of press-service Zulinova, byM. (Photo by boundaries) (marked layers ice ground tabular enclose crater the within deposits Clayey 2. Fig. igh ice content in the section, observed observed igh icecontent inthesection, T his conclusionisbasedonthe T o framework ofthe framework MSU “Geoportal the archives of R DC “SCANEX” within the A SPOT 5satellite imagewasobtainedfrom [http://earthexplorer.usgs.gov].service Explorer the USGSdatabasethrough the Earth Landsat 8satellite imageswere retrieved from thetimeofcraterdetermine formation. timespanswerevarious interpreted to Landsat 8andSPOT 5satellite imagesfor were performed. P to measure the depth layer.of the active and in the hole. “SOEKS 01M counterthe gamma-radiationwithaGeiger SGG-20 tuned to measure methane, and concentration, withthehelpofagasanalyzer Also roughly measured were the methane the hole, whichthesun’s lightdidnotreach. allowed for ofthewalls deepin a description dropped into thecrater. with a tape and arope with video camera Gubarkov etal., 2012;L Gubarkov et al., few years inC the thermocirques, whichappeared thelast etal.,Khomutov 2014].M [ conditions andasaresult ofhumanactivity transforming thelandscapesinbothnatural processes are actively ofcryogenic a series considerable ice content in landslide bodies(seeFig. 1).Dueto the T temperatures in2012. and were triggered by theunusuallywarm discussion inhaving anoutletto alake, GLM 250 andalaserrangefinderBosch 30-m tape-line Distanceswere measured witha undertaken. was thrown quite farfrom thecrater was that 60Sх oftheparapetanddebris by GARMINPSmap parapet. AGPSsurvey from thesurrounding the crater wasobserved 25, 2014.Closeapproach wasimpossible, so Study W he crater was visited on July 16 and rofessional photography andvideography alker et al.,alker 2011; Kumpula et al., 2011; 2014]. methods VF P T ” intheairaround thecrater hey differhey from thecrater under entral rof. A metal probe was used T he depthwasmeasured Y amal (Fig. 3),[L eibman etal., 2014; T ost impressive are he same camera he samecamera C entral ” project. eibman A Y ugust ugust amal,

71 ENVIRONMENT 72 ENVIRONMENT (left pane), clayey blocks contain small clasts (right pane) (Photo by M.O. Leibman) by M.O. (Photo pane) (right clasts small contain blocks clayey pane), (left top very the on blocks clay entrained and silt active-layer ferruginous by peaty covered ice, stratified and deposits icy highly loamy and silty of interbedding with wall crater the of part Upper 4. Fig. section. section. ofthe intheupperportion transparency andiceofvarious and layers inthelower part of frozen ground, mainlyclay, withicelenses walls. almost vertical about 2timeslarger thanitsdiameter, with T depths ofthehole. Runnelsofmeltwater sunlight reaches, andmore slowly inthe wherethe permafrost thaws more quickly shape andsize ofthewallsare changing as atthebottom.finally to thesmalllake passing downward to steeper slopesand gentle slopesdescendingto anoverhang, T [ to theclaysstructure intrinsic inthearea lenses, constitutingthereticulate cryogenic of frozen depositsbrokenalongtheice (see Fig. pane)are 4,right evidence Red, highly ferruginous flat-block surfaces blocks.thrown outsilt,loam,clay andturf T with rare inclusionsofclasts(seeFig. 2and4). grey by dark close underlain to clay vertical, (Fig. 4), or ratherstratified ice with stratification and loamysilty depositswith high ice content of thehole. Below of isathininterbedding layeractive covered by clay blocks thrown out sediments withpeatinclusionsrepresent an Results nanieva, 1997]. Ananieva, he landform under study is a crater of a depth he landform understudyisacrater ofadepth he upper part oftheholehasrelatively he upperpart he crater issurrounded by aparapetof T he upper 2 m of brownish silty-loamy he upper2mofbrownish silty-loamy T he exposed walls consist he exposedwallsconsist T he (Fig. 6). were thrown up to 120 mfrom thecrater mat Clods oftheclay andfragments ofturf andwater from thethawing permafrost. turf depth is changing as the crater fills with mud, T 2000 m are presented in from thecrater. Examplesofmeasurements 100 cminsize are found upto 60maway from thecrater. Fragments mat50– ofturf the parapetto several centimeters farthest smaller are theclay clods, from 1mcloseto less (nomore than35m)onA possibly around 70monJuly16andmuch m to whichtherope waslowered andwas accurately measured butitexceeds the50 (Fig. 5). that (about25m)excluding theoverhang no more than 30 m in diameter is about20m,sotheholemusthave been m outsidetheparapet. asapproximately by 70 estimated GPSsurvey T the several hoursoftheJulyvisit. rapid, probably morevery than1mduring cannon shot. thaws thatof fall down witharumblelike destabilized permafrost astheunderlying atthebottom. P a muddylake cut thewalls, gurgling down andforming he volume oftheparapetisapproximately he diameter of the whole landform was T 3 he depth of the hole could not be he depthoftheholecouldnotbe T . A he farther from thecrater,he farther the t thesametime, thevolume T hus retreat of the hole’s is rim T able 2andFig. 7. T he parapet’s width ugust 25. ieces of turf ieces ofturf – less than – less than T he he points of block-size measurements (Table 2, Fig. 7) Fig. 2, (Table measurements block-size of points O18, line). O19 (dashed O22 are and pieces ground of scattering of zone and line) (solid Crater 6. Fig. Fig. 5. Parapet, upper funnel, and inner hole size by GPS survey. O20 and O21 points of parapet parapet of O21 O20 and points survey. by GPS size hole inner and funnel, upper Parapet, 5. Fig. Fig. 7. Examples of scattered blocks of clay turf in the points (left to right) O18, O19 right) O22 to and (left points the in turf clay of blocks scattered of 7.Fig. Examples (see Fig. 6 and Table 2) (Photo by A.V. Table 2) 6and (Photo Plekhanov) Fig. (see measurements (Photo by A.V. (Photo Plekhanov) measurements 25,000 m of thevoid insidetheholeisnolessthan of the organic layer, and was 53–66 cm in the the of theorganicin layer, andwas53–66cm state ofpermafrost, dependsonthe thickness ofthe easilyobtainedcharacteristic an thawed, T to explosive (>5 %). within thecrater theconcentrationisclose values are muchhigherthannormal, and the holeto 9.6–9.8 %insidethecrater. Both concentration rangefrom 2.8–0.3 %outside level (0.05–0.14mSv). M at anormal measurements is showed that radioactivity concentration are presented in M according to estimate ataglance. crater wallsandconstitutingmore than80 % in the is due to high ice content observed the volume of the parapet. he depthto whichthepermafrost had easurements of radioactivity andmethane easurements ofradioactivity 3 , whichismore than10times T he difference T able 3. ethane T hese

73 ENVIRONMENT 74 ENVIRONMENT on theparapet. 60–77 cmonaslopewithwillow shrubsand depressionlake withthickorganic cover and hydrates, thoughuns ice anddissolved inunfrozen water. Gas isenclosed intheground Gas this interval. 2014]. L T ice content closeto thesurface. [ T landslides. shorelake are by cryogenic disturbed hydrological with it. connection 100 meters from thecrater doesnothave a revealed thefollowing. located about Alake S June 2014. a result ofunusuallyhighairtemperatures in average for thistimeoftheyear, possiblyas to temperature andmay dissolve theicewith respond and Romanovsky, 2012].Cryopegs ice released gasenclosedin theice[M permafrost responses. P of in thelastdecadehascaused aseries form. Anincrease inground temperature these depthsaswell inrelict(metas 2007; Bondarev et al., 2008; 1997;Chuvilin, etal., 2006;Rivkin, [Rivkina depths from about20mto about130m substantial amountofhydrocarbons inthe Discussion nanieva, 1997] and serves as evidence of high ofhigh asevidence 1997]andserves Ananieva, Table 3. Methane concentration and radiation measurements in the air around the crater and in the hole eibman etal., etal., 2003;2011;Streletskaya his process occurredinthe1980’s most actively ome observations in the vicinity of the crater ofthecrater inthevicinity ome observations he permafrost of C of permafrost he Block size, m Table 2. Distribution of blocks of clay and turf scattered around the crater and examples (Fig. 7). (Fig. examples and crater the around scattered turf and clay of blocks of Distribution Table 2. of measurement 0.4–0.6 0.1–0.2 T 0.5–1 P P he depthofthe Position arapet O2 arapet O1 Crater T his depthishigherthan entral from therim,m T able, canbefound at artial thaw ofground artial Up to 105 Up to 125 Distance Up to 75 Y amal hole is within amal holeiswithin Y from therim,m L amal contains a amal containsa ein et al., 2003; T he high cliffs of he high cliffs of Distance 1–2 520 0 uskett uskett T able) able) Point ID О18 О22 О19 (3) Clay clodswere found atadistanceof permafrost exposed in the hole are high. and hydrogen sulfideemissions from the its diameter. (2) follows. (1) T instead ofaparapet). liquefied andformed flows onthesurface while athightemperatures would they have are brokenalongtheicelayers, not thawed, traces ofheat;moreover, thepiecesofclay islow,level ofradioactivity andthere are no ofacelestialbody(the slopes); (e) impact inthecraterwere oronthenearest observed (d) gascombustion(because notracesoffire ofthecrater); inthevicinity were observed (becausenotracesofhumanactivity activity least 70mwould beimprobable); (c) human the presence ofanicecore atadepthof core ofthepingo;inaddition, the ice-water and anincrease ofhydrostatic pressure in would withcoolingtemperatures beexpected the parapet);(b)burstofpingo(becausethis to forman uprushofdepositsto thesurface of (becauseoftheevidence (a) thermokarst the crater formation thatcanberejected are: I and O and Judd, 1988;M [Hovland aspockmarks parapets are known surroundedsimilar processesby andlikewise gas release. relict gashydrates to accrescent andgive start mpossible andimprobable explanationsfor he features thatmustbeexplainedare as concentration, % Methane Methane tto, 2014]. 0.3–2.8 9.6–9.8 0 from therim,m T Holes in the sea floor formed by he depthofthecrater exceeds Distance 102 123 71 elnikov etal.,elnikov 1997;M T he levels ofmethane Radioactivity, mSv/hour 0.05–0.12 Block size, m 0.14 – 0.5 0.2 1 ironyuk

with the holeitself. I with from thecrater forming aparapetalong from water-saturated depositsentrained P was increasing atleastuntil2014/04/03. the remote sensingdata. onon July 16, 2014 was superimposed conducted A GPS-trackofthefieldsurvey of any available to themoment( image, whichhadthehighestresolution referenced basedontheSPOT 5satellite available remote sensingdatawasgeo- for several dates in2013and2014.All through of images the comparison T filled withwater from rainormeltingice. formed. A shrubs musthave appeared theparapet after much less densethanclay. leaves (4)New on is were turf foundof turf thanpiecesofclay; given distancefrom thecrater, larger pieces increasing distancefrom theparapet.A 120 mfrom thecrater, decreasing insize with pixels oflow reflectivity. 2013/11/01 satellite of imagesyieldaseries there isahill40–45mindiameter. A until 2013/10/09intheplaceofcrater, 2014.Onecanseethat at leastor early that the crater was formed in the late 2013 From thesatellite images, we concluded have beenscattered (Fig. 8). theareamarks ofinwhichclay blocks diameter is about 70 m. theouter limitsofparapet.I marks he age of the feature was determined resumably results this specific reflectivity 2013/07/03 2013/10/01 2013/10/09 2013/11/01 2014/02/21 2014/03/16 2014/04/03 2014/07/22 Date t thesametime, theholeisnotyet n summer, when the T he size ofthearea T T he innercircle Landsat 8 Landsat 8 Landsat 8 Landsat 8 Landsat 8 Landsat 8 Landsat 8 System he outer line SPOT5 Table 4. Satellite images metadata. T able 4). fter t a t a ts 142204_1310010650116_1A LC81670112013184 L LC81650112013282L LC81660112013305L LC81660112014052L LC81670112014075L LC81650112014093L LC81670112014203L its fullstrength, the “shot” popsupthe time asgashydrate decompositionacquires shape. I itscylinder hole anddetermine forlimitation factor localizationofthefuture (hydrolaccolith). aspingo landform closeto theoneknown from aslow processmay start produces a cataclysmic expansion. decay ofgashydrates. facies of tabularground ice, aswell as from gas bothoutofpermafrost andbubbly in2012,couldhave released particularly ground temperatures in the last decade, L Streletskaya, of boreholes [ inC observations on study. ground icebodiesinthegeological section hydrates beneaththetabular andcryopegs as follows. manifestations is explaining alltheobserved climate. permafrost’s response in to fluctuations the occurrence oftabular ground ice and features controlled by gassinginpermafrost, suggested by the relatively similar in origin Our hypothesis of crater formation is time rangefrom 2013/10/09to 2013/11/01. assume thatthecrater wasformed withinthe T hole. appeared surrounding the ring as a bright ground wasmore reflective, thecrater area upandthebarren dried parapet partially hus, basedontheremote sensingdata,we Scene ID T he leastinconsistent mechanism T W his suggestion is supported by his suggestion is supported e expect existence of relict e gas expect GN00 GN00 GN00 GN00 GN00 GN00 GN00 eibman 2003].I T Y entral his form will serve asa his form willserve akushev etal.,akushev 2005; T T his expansionwhich he lastgives alarge Y amal inthousands panchromatic, m Grid cellGrid size 2,5 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 ncreasing n

75 ENVIRONMENT 76 ENVIRONMENT in thefallof2013. ground temperature ayear later, most likely summer of 2012 produced aneffect on lags behindairtemperature, thusthewarm frozen ground cover. Ground temperature Fig. 8. Time series of SPOT 5 and Landsat 8 images. Red lines outline the parapet (inner circle) circle) (inner parapet the outline lines Red 8images. Landsat 5and SPOT of series Time 8. Fig. and area of ground blocks scattering (outer line). (outer scattering blocks ground of area and presence or absence ofgasdepositswithin entire permafrost area isindependent ofthe etal., overStreletskaya 2014],itsdistribution etal., 2006; origin [Rivkina is ofbacterial A s gasinupperlayers ofpermafrost

lakes, formed through ananalogousprocess. and previously considered to bethermokarst climatic optimumabout10,000years ago Y the hole and form a lake. the holeinitiates aprocess thatwillexpand T times.past anddecompositioninmodern favorable for inthe gashydrate conservation in otherpermafrost areas withthesame process ofgashydrate expulsionmay happen the area [ is of a purely natural origin; (4) of thecrater were found, sothisphenomenon inthevicinity (3) Notracesofhumanactivity gas depositscausedthecrater isimplausible; layers andtheassumptionthatdeep-seated hole, thefeature hasnoaccessto deeper the (2) A no more than30mindiameter isobserved; emission crater surrounded by aparapet (1) Anexciting permafrost feature, agas- T will begenerated inthefuture insuitable I suchasameteorite wereobject observed. point to a gas explosion oran extraterrestrial high temperatures,of extremely whichwould No highbackground radiationandnotraces (6) of methaneintheformation ofthecrater; negligible farfrom thehole, indicates therole decreases oftheholeandis inthevicinity concentration of methane in the hole, which been inthelate fallof2013;(5) the crater’s formation isestimated to have References C t ishighlyprobable thatsuchlandforms amal lakes formed theHolocene during amal lakes he reconnaissance establishedthefollowing: he thaw of thepermafrost atthetop of 1. are, F. E. (1998)P 2. 3. onclusions V G. ananieva, s water accumulates atthebottom of rctic. Novosibirsk, Nauka, pp. 116–23(inRussian). Arctic. Nauka, Novosibirsk, inArcticandsub- cryosphere ofrailway offundamentalstudiestheE arth Obskaya-Bovanenkovo. Results portion ern ryosphere), II(4),pp. Cryosphere), 42–50(inRussian). Earth ko, Bondarev, V .T Y akushev etal.,akushev 2005]. S ofabove- characteristics . (2008)Gas-chemical V .L., M - . (1997)Specificfeatures conditions ofthenorth ofengineering-geological roblem ofdeepgasesemission into the atmosphere. Zemli Kriosfera (the irotvorsky, M.Y P ossibly, some T T hus such a hus sucha he date of he date of T ., Zvereva, he high he high V .B., Oblekov, G.I.,S hajdullin, R.M.andGudzen- from A schools RFSC-335.2014.5 by theP oftheGovernor.service andM.AZulinova fromNaumenko thepress- from theM oftheexpedition the participants Nenets E External director of the are grateful to the organizers: which improved thepaper. anonymous reviewers for usefulcomments and comments andeditingthemanuscript, Russian C economic relations undertheauspicesof the D A the order oftheGovernor T laboratory and remote-sensing studies. andremote-sensing laboratory paper would require a full range of field, P for intheregion.risks humanactivities number inthefuture decades, presenting temperature anomaliesmay increase in decomposition withinpermafrost. Similar high pressure produced by gas hydrate moundanditsoutburstdueto pingo-like formation ofaexpanding ofcryopegs, amount ofunfrozen water inthepermafrost, the increased ground temperature and summer of2012, the anomalouslywarm T geological andpermafrost conditions. A he fieldstudywasorganized according to he origin of this crater is attributed to roving thehypothesis presented inthe mitry Kobylkin by by Kobylkin Dmitry utonomous District uthors are indebted to M cknowledgements epartment of international andforeign ofinternational epartment A W rogram of support of leading scientific ofleadingscientific rogram ofsupport utonomous Region M enter for ArcticD ashington P conomic Relations ofthe conomic Relations .N. Situations, ofEmergency A.N. inistry enoman deposits of D epartment of epartment T ost for valuable evelopment. A his work was funded wasfunded his work D I ax Ehrenfreund nternational and nternational and n eputy Governor,eputy azharov A.V Y amal-Nenets amal-Nenets Y amal pen- V holya .L Sholya Y amalo- uthors uthors ., to ., to

77 ENVIRONMENT 78 ENVIRONMENT

11. hovland, M.andJudd, A.G.(1992) 10.

l 15. 12. l 16. l 14. l 13.

m 17. hovland, M.andJudd,A.G. (1988) S 8. 7. hovland,M., Gardner, J.V 9. chuvilin,E.M( 5. c 4. 6. and Gas, 3,pp. 21–7(inRussian). and technogenic gas field. conditions of Kharasavey vironmental studiesinBeringia, Fairbanks, pp. 134–45. Alaska, chemical reconstructionofconditionsfor itsformation. I T Gubarkov, A..,L cal andEnvironmental I Khomutov, A.V standing fluidflow processes andgeohazards. Geofluids, 2,pp. 127–36. marine sources.marine C ice bodies in permafrost. Quaternary Research, 68,pp. 239–48. ice bodiesinpermafrost. Quaternary toolratios ofairentrappedinice:Anew to theorigin determine ofrelictmassive ground ern part of Bovanenkovo gas-condensate deposit.M ofBovanenkovo gas-condensate part ern development ofoilandgasdeposits. insula (case deposit. Geology, study at Bovanenkovo gas-condensate geophisics and radiative gasesin Gilichinsky implications andForecast. I and L.U and P and Iceas (2011) SulfurandC Kumpula, Herald,University 4.pp. 17–27. depth in the typical tundraofC depth inthetypical and Engineering, Switzerland,I Springer Landslides inC 21–25 July2003),vol.P 1,Lisse, A.Balkema Netherlands: plainofRussia:classification,mechanisms,Siberian andlandforms. I opment. GlobalEnviron. Change, 21(2),Elsevier, pp. 550–562. land cover changeinArcticRussia:E biogeochemical peculiarities oftabulargroundbiogeochemical peculiarities iceof I P mafrost Switzerland, (Zurich, 21–25July2003), vol. 2,Lisse, Netherlands, A.Balkema rctic, Novosibirsk, Nauka, pp. 259–269(inRussian). Arctic, Nauka, Novosibirsk, inArcticandsub- cryosphere the Earth a source ice formationof new on the n: M.P abular ground andisotope-geo iceorigin inthearcticcoastalzone: cryolithological eibman M.O ein, A.Y eibman, M.O ryogenic landslidesinthe eibman, M.,Khomutov,A. (2014) Cryogenic A.andKizyakov, ublishers, pp. 661–666. lark, I.D ardyn, R.,Clark, elnikov, eriglacial P eriglacial hillips, S.Mpringman andL.U . Arenson (E u., Savvichev, A.S.,L V T .P ndicators oftheOrigin of ., P D ., Spesivtsev, ., Rivkina ., Rivkina ., Kaarlejärvi, E.,Forbes, B.C. andStammler,ajunen, A.,Kaarlejärvi, F. (2011)Landuse ., Kizyakov, A.I.,L ., Kizyakov, ubberten H.- ., Hubberten . and Khitun, O . andKhitun, tructure and properties ofrocks ofthesouth- d.) incryolithozone (2007)Structureandproperties old Regions intheC rocesses, 22(1),pp. 39–48. eibman, M.O ontinental ShelfResearch, 12(10),pp. 1231–1238. W arbon Isotopes within A arbon ., Lacelle, D est Beringia P ds.) P E. and mplication. Springer . andJudd, A.G.(2002) V roc. ofthe8thI .I andKulikov, n: M.E eibman, M.O .V amarkin Samarkin . andKhomutov, A.V ein, A.Y ., Lauriol, B., Zdanowicz, C.and W . (2014) ., L entral dwards, A.SherandD ermafrost: Research opportunities for P ermafrost: Research opportunities T eabed P ein A.Y he globalproductionofmethanefrom shallow sub cological devel- andsocialimplicationsofindustrial T u., P ontext ofClimate Change,ontext Environmental S P abular Ground IceintheRussianArctic.P 5, pp.22–34(I T echora sea shelf. of fundamental studies of Results . Arenson (E Y V he dynamicsofvegetation cover layer andactive amal under technogenic impact. amal undertechnogenic impact. . (1997) nternational P nternational V ., M erednya, D .I (1997) Onfluid degassing ofhydrocarbons as nt. C u., I.D Streletskaya urface andGround tmospheric, Surface ockmarks andS ockmarks iller, onf. onP T T Y he significance of pockmarks to under he significance ofpockmarks he ancient viable microorganisms and u.M. andP ryogenic processes innatural . (2012)Cryogenic ds.) P .D n Russian). T oscow, GEOS,137p. (inRussian). ., Savvichev, A.Sand ransactions of the ransactions ublishing, pp. 143–162. . (E roc. ofthe8thI Y ermafrost, Switzerland, (Zurich, ugorsky and ugorsky n: M.P ublishers, pp. 645–650. ds), Gutry ds), Gutry eepages: Geological E imenov, N.V . and almels, F. (2007)M hillips, S.Mpringman V n: anshtein B.G. 2003. T W errestrial paleoen- errestrial Y . (2003)Isotopic- . Shanetal(E nt. C amal peninsula. H aleoecological V igh T anshtein, B.G. yumen State W onf. onP S ater, Snow ermafrost chool. olar gas cologi- cience W est- ds.) Oil er - - - - v 27. treletskaya, I., streletskaya, 26. I.D streletskaya, 25. w 28. skorobogatov, 24. uchida, 29. m 18. 23. m 19. 22. 21. 20. y 30. y 31.

2014), p. 274. July 2003)vol. P 2,Lisse, A.Balkema Netherlands: L.U C July 2003)vol.P 2,Lisse, A.Balkema Netherlands: L.U fields intabularground iceasindicators ofitsorigin. I ofEUCOPAbstracts 4 – 4thE ice and cryopegs formation atcentral ice andcryopegs D bles intheground icenearM Y Kumpula, permafrost North- P Use inaChanging Climate, vol. date ofgeographic sciencesthesis, M Rokos, (in Russian). X(3),pp. Cryosphere), 23–41 oftheArctic. Zemli sector Eastern Kriosfera (theEarth North- (I hazards andengineering construction J.bon gassings:regularities ofdistribution Georisk Kholodov, A.L.,Shcherbakova, V K. E.M.,Kraev, G.N.,Krivushin, Rivkina, resources), 4,pp. 183–193 (inRussian). and dynamicsofpermafrost. Litologia I poleznye iskopaemyeLithology andmineral ( E.MandGilichinsky, D Rivkina, pp. 165–168(inRussian). Arctic, Nauka, Novosibirsk, Arctic andsub- P F.Rivkin, ofthestudymethaneemissionalongpipelineNadym- M. (1997)Results P M c lays andglassbeds//J. Res., Geoth. 109,B05206. H., Ebinuma, sphere), IX(1),pp. 68–72 (inRussian). spreading, resources, Cryo Zemli prospectsand development. Kriosfera (the Earth 192 pp. (inRussian). akushev, akushev, u, Q. (2011)C eninsula, Russia.I ermafrost, anshtein, B.G., Cherkashov, G.A.,P unga (North of unga (North n press) (I anada, Univ. L avalC ., Kaplan, J.O E., Kaplan, .S., Gubarkov, A..,Jia,G.J., Karlejaärvi, uskett, R.andRomanovsky,uskett, ass ofRussianP alker, D ironyuk, S.G.andO . Arenson (E . Arenson (E . (2009) Gas-saturated deposits of the upper part of Barents-Kara shelf. of Barents-Kara S.I (2009) deposits Gas-saturated of the upper part T ., .A., Forbes, B.C., L T T V V n Russian). ., Kuss, P akeya, S.,Chuvilin,EOhmura,R.,Nagao,akeya, J., .S (2009)Naturalgasand hydrates incryolithozone, M vol. 1,Salekhard,Russia, .S., P T ., Narita, H.(2004)D ., Narita, umulative andland-usechangeson the effects ofrapidland-cover V V ds.) P ds.) P . andL anshtein, B., .A., W erlova, E.V erlova, ermafrost Regions. I . Reissel ( E n: G.GutmanandA.Reissel arth cryosphere in cryosphere offundamentalstudiestheEarth Results est Siberia). W ., M Y akuchev, roc. ofthe 8th I roc. ofthe 8th I est tto, ollection Nordicana,ollection N55,pp. 1001–1006. .K., Romanovsky, N.G.,Raynolds, M.K., oskalenko, eibman, M.O iberia. Siberia. V .P eibman, M.O . (2014) Gas-saturated seabedgrounds. (2014)Gas-saturated andnaturalhydrocar ., M V uropean C V asilev, A.andOblogov, G.(2014)M V S ale polarstation, arre- V .A andGilichinsky, D .S andChuvilin,EM(1998) .E (2012)M akhonina, N.A.(2005)M akhonina, , New VI, New .A (1996)M P ecomposition ofmethaneH roc. of the 7th iven, P ryogeochemical modeloftabularground . (2003)Cryogeochemical T nt. C nt. C he Northern P he Northern urmansk (inRussian). urmansk M. H n: K. Y ., Epstein, H.E.,Bhatt,U Y onf. onP amal, Russia.I ork, Springer,ork, pp. 206–236. onf. on onf. on .I andL S., Fedorov-., Laurinavichus, K. Davydov, D D ulti-Satellite- ethane asapalaeoindicator oftheorigin inkel (E inkel ds.) E ermafrost (E P P eibman, M.O .A (2006)M I ermafrost Switzerland, (Zurich, 21–25 ermafrost Switzerland, (Zurich, 21–25 nt. ublishers, pp. 1111–1115. ublishers, pp. 1155–1160. ublisher, pp. 277–282. urasian ArcticLandC W Y n: M.P n: M.P C d.) akushev, est onf. on ., Khumutov, A.V etas erived ChangesinEnergy and P Y roc. ofthe10thI amal, RussianArctic. Bookof ources ofnaturalgaswithin hillips, S.Mpringman and hillips, S.Mpringman and vora, P T ydrates insand, sandstone, ethane in permafrost of the ethane inpermafrost ofthe ryogeochemical . (2003)Cryogeochemical able (relic) gashydrates: .S., C V P ethane inthegasbub ., Istomin, ermafrost, V omiso, J.C., Drozdov, ortugal, 18–21June ortugal, .E., Stammler, F. and oscow, ., Kofinas,G.P over andL V ., M nt. C Y ellowknife, inagawa, VNIIGAS, onf. on C Y andi- amal .G., .G., ., - - -

79 ENVIRONMENT 80 ENVIRONMENT 90 scientific publications in leading scientific journals ongeography90 scientificpublications inleadingscientific journals and geocryology. S project. activities. cience andtheL he is a member of the Russian Geographical S She is a member of the Russian Geographical T he memberofthe eading S Irina D. Irina Streletskaya isA Andrei V. graduated Plekhanov from OmskState P S Alexander I.Kizyakov – O.Marina Leibman graduated from theM on P leader andorganizer ofRussianI M andGlacilology,Cryolithology Faculty ofGeography, L on the inmany fieldresearch expeditionsandconducted has participated sediments, palaeogeography ofArctic. Quaternary She cryopegs, formation, ecologyoftheArcticareas, frozen salinesediments, ground ice, processes, periglacial relief permafrost geochemistry; M author ofmore than15research papers. tundra of C S remote sensingdatainterpretation. on arcticplainsandcoasts, permafrost processes dynamics, interests: ofpermafrost processes distribution andphenomena University, Faculty ofH C M research papersand5monographs. permafrost mapping. A processes, groundcryogenic ice, state ofpermafrost, thermal I Cryosphere mineralogical sciences (2006). Chief S Faculty ofGeology, P cientific S enior researcher attheState I enter oftheArctic” Research interests: (Salekhard). medieval ryolithology and Glaciology.ryolithology P ineralogical S ineralogical oscow State oscow State University, Faculty ofGeography,D W IPA ofthe ermafrost (IUCP)asapart I orld O orld Y amal, chools ofRussiaproject,the Arctic C Y cean program provided by theRussianA amal peninsula( nstitute, SBRAS( T er area of expertise: permafrost mapping; permafrostciences. mapping; Herarea ofexpertise: aymyr and Gygan University. ermafrost D uthor and co-author ofmore than100 uthor andco-author istory, D enior Researcher attheL ssociate P She is V ociety. S ociety. – centuries). A XII centuries). epartment. DrS epartment. epartment of General H ofGeneral epartment C University nternational nstitution “S T h P yumen). Research interests: eninsulas, D in Geography. Research P rofessor, D hD he is the author of over over of author the is he arth cientist of the Earth nternational P nternational . inGeological and oscow State University, Y cientific Research enisei North. enisei North. oastal D ci. ingeological- uthor andco- epartment of epartment epartment of epartment edagogical omonosov cademy of omonosov olar ynamics ynamics ourses ourses istory. Y T ear ear he he

supply inI research seeks to study access to rural water of forma sprawling literature. an object relationships water between andpoverty the consequencesofwater scarcity, the and of poverty rise about the unchecked A (MAC of R) andtheefforts to the relatively high mean annual rainfall the seeminglyhighscores are mainlydue wards have above average scores. However, and ward.Aran Orin Only2L highest (62 %)wasobtainedatI ( wardAran Orin (63 %.).W Oko, environment washighestinI III), useswashighestinOmuAranIIand weak (highestscore was43 %inOmuAran highest inOrowasgenerally I(71 %),capacity in OmuAranwardwas I(93 %),accessibility was seento behighgenerally, withhighest capacity, uses and environment. Resources resources, accessibility,5 sub-components: M index ( to water wasestimated using households were sampledinthisstudy. A were sampledperward; altogether 220 the 11wards intheL (L Abstract. * [email protected] author; e-mail: Nigeria ofGeography andEnvironmentalDepartment Ilorin, Sciences, University ofIlorin, Ifatokun P. Abiodun O. Ifabiyi*, Adedeji capacities and few sources ofwater aslocals andArandunwards oftheirlow Oko inview in inwater provision;intervention particularly is needfor government andpublic-private dating backinto about100years. Hence, there of has long history ofKwarastate which districts south senatorial Area for Analysis ko ward,WPI) wasleast(47 %)inOko whilethe ssociations ( GA), KwaraState. Datawere sourced from eigh [2006] using household data; based on eigh [2006]usinghouseholddata;basedon Arandun wards are water poor, all other WPI) computed after Irepodun I n the wake ofagrowing n thewake concern repodun L (Kw ) which is typical of Kwara ofKwara CBA) whichistypical CBA GA. ocal GovernmentArea of ara s and T ater poverty index index ater poverty wenty households households wenty GA ommunity Based Based ommunity ko Oko s namely:

W Water T Sullivan and State own ater poverty ater poverty petu-Rore- petu-Rore- L nions Unions ocal ccess ccess T his his Poverty , Nigeria) issue and a descriptor ofpoverty.issue andadescriptor A need ofhouseholdobjectively. of water plannersishow to estimate water which water sustains. Oneofthechallenges and the on ecology water quality impact of water andtheenvironmental which factors water, for capacity sustaining access, the use index encompasswater availability, accessto conceptualunderlying framework of the 2002; S et. al. 2000;Sullivan,2002;Lawrence etal, 1997, 2000; compared to otherindices[ inruralhouseholds water need, particularly nature andit is suitablefor assessing people’s the similitudeofHDI,itisdisaggregate in meet humanandenvironmental need. to quality insufficient water of satisfactory astheconditionof sees water poverty W ofwater. andshortage poverty for relationship discussingthetwin between andaccess. availability I water of W Resources A in I sources ofwater. C will have low capacitiesto explore alternative water resources infrastructuresintheL suggest needs forurbanization expanding the challengesofincreasing populationand Introduction Key ccess to water has become a human right ccessibility, C ater A ater poverty indexisacombinedmeasure ater poverty repodun L Government words oussan andFrans, 2003;etc]. ssessment P S GA isappreciably high.However, : W ekler, et. al. 1998; apacity, Uses, Environment, ater P onclusively, accessto water

overty, I rogram [

ncome P Alcamo, etal, WWAP t is a platform t isaplatform V T orosmarty, orosmarty, he , 2001] , 2001]

overty, GA. W is WPI is T here orld orld T he he

81 SUSTAINABILITY 82 SUSTAINABILITY at any time[ in their bodies 1000 parasitic warms carry 2012]; third, children in poorenvironment water [ some 200hourscollecting second, dailywomen across spend theworld on less than 2 dollar a day; water survive almost 2in3peoplewhoneed safe dirking first,that when we reflectonthesefacts: becomes more threateningand poverty T basins, etc. resources suchasraw water, streams, river dependdirectlyonnaturalthe world to andSighn[1996]thepoorof Rennie spent onincomegeneration.A 2003]. I food andeducation[S will leadto foregoing otheritems suchas common. Hence, expenditure onsickness in poor nations safety net is not security; made through healthinsurance or social developed where world payment willbe the developing withinthe world, unlike is mostlyfelt by poorhouseholdsin infectious diseases. have of they of malnutrition; likelihood addition, poorpeople have lower levels and drainageare lessdeveloped. I public health,water supply, sanitation thatprovide protection forservices in water, airandsoil. I and toxic chemicals agentsare common degraded environments where pathogens frequentlythey live incontaminated and households have theheaviest healthburden; andsanitation. P poverty exists between Adirectrelationship alleviation. poverty provision ofpotablewater asameansof the United Nations MDGcanvassed for the investment andproduction,littlewonder such incomewillnotbeavailable for medical treatment for preventable diseases, oftheirincomeon part a disproportionate diseases. I and cycle from moving outofthepoverty management asillhealthprevents them due to inadequate water supplies andwater communities suffer great healthburden, and ‘income poverty’ [Sullivan,2002].P is astrong linkbetween poverty’‘water he nexus between domesticwaterhe nexusbetween supply ll healthwillleadto lossoftime ndeed, poorhouseholdexpend W aterfacts, 2011];fourth, aterfacts, T he impact ofdiseaseshe impact n suchenvironment, oussan andFrans, W ccording aterAid, oor oor n next decade. A next thatwillbewater stressedcountries inthe hasbeenlisted asoneoftheNigeria 98 % lives indeveloping world. water ofwhich unavailable cleandrinking that, yearly, 1.4million children diefrom through weapons [ more lives through diseasesthanany war havewater and sanitationcrises claimed supply andschoolenrolment, hence, a ruralwaterdirect existbetween bearing blower onthelevel ofwater supply. Further, asawhistle andmay serve authorities progress made at water provision by local nature ofwater problems; assistinmonitoring A studyof scarcity inNigeria. inducedbycases ofwater conflicts A and political scarcity. I management scarcity, institutionalscarcity of physical scarcity, economicscarcity, [2008] water scarcitycanbeinrespect Government area ofKwaraState. I education). school rate ofcompletionprimary ofschoolenrolment(both interms and ofgirlchildeducationespecially theextent will give insightsto schoolenrolment and the household level inI index at viawater poverty accessibility T previously conducted. to areas where suchanalysishas not been and finally(vi)results canbeinterpolated to conflicts of the community vulnerability planning, itwillindicate the level of processes anddevelopmentmaking topeople with a view assisting in decision projects, (v)showcase water uselevel of the communitiesontheirroles inselfhelp water supply, (iv)guidegovernment and in developmental processes asitrelates to water management,(iii)exposethegap in theL thestatein evaluating ofwater supply in thefollowing respect;itwill:(i)assist repodun L his work isaimedatanalyzingwaterhis work shton [2002;2007]have alsodocumented GA, (ii)provide aninsightinto ocal Governmentisofrelevance WPI willgive aninsightto the T he analysis of water poverty in he analysisofwater poverty ccording to M W aterfacts,2012]; lastly,aterfacts,2012]; n the same vein, repodun L oll andM olluga, ocal WPI

grasses andtrees. I area hassavannah vegetation by characterized wind. wind, whichisadry harmattan by O wind whichoriginates from theA is accompaniedby thesouthwesterly in November andlastinApril. seasonstarts 1100–1500 mm ofrainfall. Dry six months( seasons;wet seasonlastfor of wet anddry I and onethe16L Nigeria I WPI combinesboth thephysical quantities index ( the water poverty A drainageline.is theprincipal streams whichare mostlyseasonal. Oshin River flowing swift the area isdrainedby short hills withintheolderbasementcomplexrocks I is124per1000live birth. five mortality girls in school enrolment is 91 completion rate is 76 land isunderagriculture. P per capitais3,010USD is 64 %.A sources 2009and2013inNigeria between cubic meters andaccessto improved water renewable fresh water resource is1,346 is49 %,whileinternal rural areas inNigeria access to improved water supplyinthe water use is 16dollarpercubicmeters. Also, is31billioncubicmeters, GDP in Nigeria annual domesticfresh water withdrawal is1,150mm,thepercentage of in Nigeria W A population of148,610people(2006census). 167 millionandalandmassof910,770km hasapopulation of citizen. Nigeria ordinary L L government, whichare federal, states and isafederation with 3tiersofNigeria Methods Study repodun L repodun L repodun L GA GA ccessibility to waterccessibility wasmeasured using ccording to the data released by the cean, while dry season is characterized seasonischaracterized cean, whiledry orld Bankin2014,averageorld precipitation s. s, Nigeria comprises of36states and774 comprises s, Nigeria T his is to make governancehis is to close to make the area ccording GDP to thesamereport, GA hasanarea of737 km of GA isoneofthe774L has an alternating climateGA hasanalternating pril to November)April withabout study repodun L % and ratio of boys to GA ollar and84 %of has undulating GA hasundulating s inKwara state. WPI) method. rimary school rimary % while under W et season 2 GA anda tlantic s in T he he 2 . producing 0 and 100. avaluebetween have been calculated, are they added together, Onceallcomponentindices of sub-indices. Each ofthesecomponentindicesismadeup a highscore indicates goodwater provision. where alow and score indicates water poverty 0and100, WPI valueisanumberbetween access, capacity, usesandenvironment. indexcomponents:resources,water poverty respondents, of Bcomprises whilesection S T personal interviews. field (studyarea) through questionnaires and T in which220householdswere sampled. per ward;atotal of220copies thismakes copies ofquestionnaire were administered than 50 %may beregarded aswater poor. 20 Hence, withascore any community ofless total score of20 %,andwilladdupto100 %. a Each ofthese5componentsattracted through theuseofstructuredquestionnaire. T access, capacity, usesandenvironment. resources,information on5indices, namely: national data. of of the in shortcomings view from[2006] usingdatacollected households, was measured SullivanandM after among others. in water supplies participation community of water, controlling factors access to water, in thestudyarea, anddistribution pattern in this study include: sources of water supply management [ diverse thataffect water factors resource produce anindicator thataddresses the toeconomic relating factors to poverty relating to water and the socio- availability respondents are farmers, 25.9 %are civil A attributesPrimary respondents of index[ value isthewater poverty Results he questionnaire is divided into sections. two datawere from collected the he primary consists of primary attributes of attributes Aconsistsofprimary ection he information required wasobtained ccording to T T WRI, 2006]. able 1,about17.7 % ofthe his was done by collecting his wasdoneby collecting W ater P overty I overty T he datarequired WPI based on WRI, 2006]. ndex ( eigh. WPI) T his his

83 SUSTAINABILITY 84 SUSTAINABILITY quantity ofwater consume. they quantity Family the larger thefamilysizes themore the water a household willuse. Family size willaffect thevolume of schooleducation.attended secondary school education(37.3 %). oftherespondents hadprimary majority belong to theinformal sector. Also, shows thatmany oftherespondents servants and20.5 %are traders. Oro II Oro I Omu-Aran III Omu-Aran II Omu-Aran I AjaseI AjaseI Esie/I T I Arandun Oko AjaseI Oro II Oro I Omu-Aran III Omu-Aran II Omu-Aran I AjaseI Esie/I T I Arandun Oko petu/Rore/Aran Orin petu/Rore/Aran Orin otal P otal P jan jan po I po II po I po II ercentage % ercentage % Wards Wards Table 1. Characteristics. by Distributionof Respondents Socio-Economic Trading 20.5 % 10.9 % 1-2 10 While 22.7 % 3 7 3 7 5 3 2 5 4 3 3 3 1 1 0 2 0 0 0 7 0 Occupation oftherespondents Family Size oftherespondents T herefore, T his Farming 17.7 % 42.3 % 3-5 11 15 15 10 2 2 3 3 2 1 4 3 9 8 2 6 3 9 6 6 3 9 respondents isrelatively low. (about33.6 %). lessthanN7,500permonthbetween N7,500andN10,000andalsobetween ofrespondents (34.1 %) rangesmajority L.G.A are large. generallyfairly I Suggesting thatfamilysizes inI -10 memberswere 42.3 % respectively, area; familysize of3-5membersand6 size rangesfrom 0to 42.3 %inthestudy Civil Servant 25.9 % 42.3 % 6-10 10 14 11 12 10 3 4 7 3 4 6 5 8 4 5 8 8 4 4 4 9 7 T hese show thatincomeof ABOVE 10 Others 35.9 % 4.5 % 12 10 7 7 7 9 9 4 3 4 7 1 2 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 4 ncome of repodun Omu-Aran I Oro I Omu-Aran II Omu-Aran I Oro II Omu-Aran III Omu-Aran II AjaseI Omu-Aran III AjaseI Oro I Esie/I Oro II Oko AjaseI Arandun AjaseI I Esie/I T Oko Arandun I T petu/Rore/Aran Orin petu/Rore/Aran Orin otal P otal P jan jan po I po II po I po II ercentage % ercentage % WARDS Wards Wards LESS THAN N Single Single 27.3 % 33.6 % 7500 10 10 12 6 3 6 6 5 4 6 9 5 6 3 5 7 8 4 7 4 5 3 Income level permonth ofrespondents Marital statusMarital ofrespondents N Married Married N 52.3 % 34.1 % 10,000 7,500- 12 10 10 10 11 11 11 12 13 6 9 9 6 8 6 8 5 7 7 6 4 9 -N Divorced Divorced N 11.8 % 10,000 3.2 % 15,000 0 2 1 4 1 2 2 0 3 1 2 0 2 0 1 0 3 0 3 1 2 3 N Widow/Widower Widow/Widower 15,000-N 10.5 % 9.5 % 1 4 1 2 4 3 4 1 0 1 2 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 4 2 0 4 20,000 Continue Table 1 N ABOVE Others Others 6.82 % 11.0 % 20,000 1 1 2 2 1 2 2 0 4 1 2 2 5 2 3 2 1 1 1 1 2 1

85 SUSTAINABILITY 86 SUSTAINABILITY the hinterland. I schools, Ajase- etc unlike tarred roads, electricity,Hospital, General water,infrastructure suchas:pipeborne an L T (93.75 Omu-Aran Iishaving thehighestscore Water resources least resource base(65 %)( C S/N his is expected because his is expected omponents 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 TFig. 2a. Distribution of Resource Per Ward Per Resource of Distribution 2a. TFig. headquarter, it has the necessary GA headquarter, ithasthenecessary I Arandun Oko Esie/I AjaseI AjaseI Oro I Oro I Omu-Aran I Omu-Aran I Omu-Aran I petu/Rore/Aran Orin %), while i jan po I po I Wards i ii i of

Water I Ajase- po IIwhichisin Poverty po Supply (a) Source of Omu-Aran Water Major Major 2o 19 16 12 20 20 19 18 19 19 20 II has the Table 2(a). Water resources T able2.a). Alternative Source of I is Water (b) 12 14 15 15 13 17 15 17 15 8 6 water. dug wells, boreholes andpipeborne suchasstreams,sources ofwater; hand in thisward have accessto multiple of 75 %onaccessto water. Respondents the highestadvantagehaving ascore I Accessibility to Water Resources of itsrelatively low population.Oko streams inthisward are stillpotable, inview of water supply. Besides, most of the several selfhelpprojectsinthearea n terms of n terms water resources Esie/ Fig 2b. Pattern of acess to water per ward per water to acess of Pattern 2b. Fig Groundwater Surface and Surface Differences Between T (c) 11 15 17 15 15 14 17 13 17 20 6 his ward hasbenefited from

Quality (d) Quality Supply Water 18 16 16 20 20 20 20 19 17 20 20 Subcomponent 75.00 68.75 73.75 65.00 88.75 80.00 91.75 93.75 87.5 87.5 82.5 (%) (e) I jan has (e/10) 7.50 6.88 7.38 8.75 6.50 8.75 8.25 8.87 8.00 9.20 9.40 (f) (f)

( of water having only hand-pump wells ithastheleastaccessto sourceswater; toof access; having 32.5 % accessibility ward remains theleastinterms T 11. I 10.Arandun 9. Oko 8. Esie/I 7. AjaseI 6. AjaseI 5.Oro I 11. I 10. Arandun 4. Oro I 9. Oko 8. Esie/I 3.Omu-Aran I 7. AjaseI 6. AjaseI 2.Omu-Aran I 5. Oro I 4. Oro I 1.Omu-Aran I 3. Omu-AranI 2. Omu-AranI 1. Omu-AranI able 2b). petu/Rore/Aran Orin petu/Rore/Aran Orin i i jan jan S/N Wards po I po I po II po I S/N Wards i ii i ii i Illness Illness (a) Supply (a) 9 2 3 8 8 7 8 7 7 6 3 to Piped Table 2(b). Accessibility to Water Resources Access Water Table 2(c). Capacity for Empowerment for Table 2(c). Capacity 12 13 17 18 14 13 7 4 1 0 9 Under five (5) Mortality Mortality Rate (b) Rate 5 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 Over Water Conflict Use (b) 11 12 16 11 10 12 5 7 8 7 6

Level (c) Educa- I withamaximumof50 %ingenerally weak, T Empowerment for Capacity tional

petu/Rore/Aran- he score ofeachwardis oncapacity 18 16 12 17 16 15 20 17 9 9 6 Sanitation (c) 14 15 10 19 14 13 14 15 15 20 18 Receiving Pension % ofRespondents or Wages(d) Collection (d) Specific Time in Water 13 12 8 4 5 6 4 4 5 6 7 rin ( Orin 17 17 12 11 19 13 14 10 8 8 6

T able 2c;Figure 2c).

(e) % 18.75 21.25 38.75 31.25 36.25 36.25 25.00 43.75 42.50 41.25 Subcomponent 71.25 68.75 58.75 58.75 Subcomponent 6I.25 32.5 52.5 (%) 50 (e) 40 75 55 70 (f) (e/10) (f) (e/10) 5.00 1.88 2.12 3.88 3.12 3.63 3.63 2.30 4.37 4.25 4.13 6.25 4.00 3.25 7.50 5.25 5.50 7.00 7.13 6.88 5.88 5.88 (f) (f)

87 SUSTAINABILITY 88 SUSTAINABILITY 1. Omu-AranI 2. Omu-AranI 3. Omu-AranI 4. Oro I 5. Oro I 6. AjaseI 8. Esie/I 7. AjaseI 9. Oko 10. Arandun 11. I petu/Rore/Aran Orin Fig. 2d. Pattern of water use per ward per use water of Pattern 2d. Fig. i Fig. 2c. Pattern of respondent‘s capacity per ward per capacity respondent‘s of Pattern 2c. Fig. jan po I po I S/N Wards i i ii Domestic Uses (a) 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 Table 2(d). Uses Water Industrial Industrial Uses (b) 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 9 4 8 Fig. 2e. Pattern of environmental sub component sub environmental of Pattern 2e. Fig. Agricultural Uses (c) 10 2 8 5 3 3 4 2 3 8 8 10,000 naira. ranging 7,500to between in thisward isthehighest also thelevel ofincome who are empowered; andfarmerscivil servants number ofbusinesspeople, having an appreciable ward issomehow complex, of I T ward with18.75 %capacity. T he leastisfound inArandun he occupationdynamics

Livestock Uses (d) 16 16 17 13 13 16 16 19 10 16 12 petu/Rore/Aran- (e) ( %) 51.25 58.75 55.00 46.25 46.25 51.25 48.75 53.75 58.75 60.00 62.50 Subcomponent (f) (e/10) (f) 5.13 5.88 5.50 4.63 4.63 5.13 4.88 5.38 5.90 6.00 6.25 Orin

2d; Figure 2d). while or theother. Esie/I exposed to onenvironmental problem A Nature Respondents’ of Environment gardening).agriculture (marketing andirrigation purposes, suchasblockmaking uses water for thandomestic otherpurposes uses with62.5 %,whileOro Ihas46.25 %( ward recorded thehighestscore of interms Livestock isalsocommon.Arandun watering canbefound.and sachetwater industries W domestic purposes, water useislargely rural. W Pattern Water of Use and environment (48.75 %). scores (21.25 %) onaccess (32.5 %),capacity wardOko hastheleast 64 (75 %) andenvironment (65 %)and highest score inresources (87.5 %),access Esie/I A 48.75 % respectively (Figure 2(e)). Water 1. Omu-AranI 2. Omu-Aranii 3. Omu-AranI 4. Oro I 5. Oro I 6. AjaseI 7. AjaseI 8. Esie/I 9. Oko 10. Arandun 11. I ccording to ccording to ater related suchasafew industries block ater inthestudyarea ismainlyusedfor %; suggesting an advantage over others. petu/Rore/Aran Orin jan ward hasthehighest i jan Poverty S/N Wards ko and Oko po I po I i ii T T able 3andFigure 3(aandb), T randun ward his impliesthatArandunward able 2(e), allthewards are Indices Arandun wards have jan ward scored 65 %, %, with least WPI of47 %,withleast Pollution (a) (WPI) 14 14 11 12 13 16 17 13 Table 2(e). Respondents’ Environment 4 6 7 , having WPI, having the LastFive Crop Loss in of WPI of (5) Years(b) T able able 10 2 2 4 1 0 1 3 1 8 6 in I common problem confronting water supply in government water works: i. L S resources development inI A number ofproblems are facing water been atthefore front ofselfhelpprojects. the study. Furthermore, thestudyarea has weathering has been discoveredof in parts aquifer for boreholes inthisregion. D weathering which has provided a regolith benefited immenselyfrom therelatively deep of about6months. Hence, thearea hasalso produced aminimumlengthofrainy season annual rainfallofabout1,500mmwhich oftherelatively inview expected highmean T remaincapacity theleastinallwards. highest score inallthecommunities, while components show thatresources hasthe A comparative analysesofthe from theState no ward dailywater supply experiencing T particularly, Oro,I Ajase- few settlements with public water supply the smallsizes oftreatment plantsinthe Problems his results in water shortages in thesetowns.his results in water shortages he highscore recorded by resources is ome oftheseare discussedbelow. Erosion ow capacity ofwaterow treatment capacity facility repodun L (c) 10 14 10 16 11 11 11 14 12 13 9 Management (d) of Regulation and Environmental ocal Government,asthere is

Water W 20 20 20 20 20 20 17 20 16 16 19 ater C Supply ran. po andOmu- Aran. orporation due to dueto orporation

(e) (%) 56.25 58.75 48.75 48.75 63.75 Subcomponent 57.5 50.0 60.0 60.0 57.5 65.0 repodun L T his isa (f) (e/10) (f) 5.75 5.00 6.00 6.00 5.75 5.63 5.88 6.50 4.87 4.88 6.38 WPI eep eep GA.

89 SUSTAINABILITY 90 SUSTAINABILITY water pumpingfor distribution. failure affects theprocess oftreatment and iv. P Arandun wards. atI lack of servicing S iii. P AranW is constantly wasted, especially in due to poormaintenance; hence, water water tapsinthestudyarea are worn-out ii. Faulty Oro II Oro I Omu-Aran III Omu-Aran II Omu-Aran I Oko I Esie/I Arandun I Ajase- I Ajase- ome boreholes are for nolonger functional according (WPI) Indices Poverty Water 3a. Fig. petu/Rore/Aran Orin oor M ower Failure: jan po II po I ard IandII,OroI andAjase Wards T aps and aintenance of to wards P rin and petu/Rore/Aran Orin T ipes: sources he problem ofpower 82.50 88.75 80.00 91.75 93.75 73.75 75.00 87.50 68.75 65.00 87.50 Re W - S ome of the public ater I Access 70.00 71.25 68.75 58.75 58.75 32.50 61.25 75.00 40.00 52.50 55.00 Table 3. Water poverty Indices (WPI) Indices Table poverty Water 3. nfrastructure: po II. T his isa Capacity O 36.25 25.00 43.75 42.50 41.25 21.25 50.00 38.75 18.75 31.25 36.25 mu- 46.25 46.25 55.00 58.75 51.25 58.75 60.00 53.75 62.50 51.25 48.75 Uses common problem inAjaseI T Esie/I Omu-AranIandIII,roAran Orin, IIand due to highpressure around I taps, there istheproblem oflongqueue v. L and Oro IIward. Arandun to 93 %inOmu- Aran. scores onresources ranging from 68 %in Discussion he wards ofthestudyarea have strong ong Queue:I jan ward. Fig. 3(b): Water Poverty Indices (WPI) Indices Poverty 3(b): Water Fig. ment Envi- 57.50 60.00 60.00 50.00 57.50 48.75 63.75 65.00 48.75 58.75 56.25 ron - Irepodun 58.50 57.75 61.50 60.75 60.70 47.00 62.00 64.00 47.75 51.75 56.75 LGA n placeswithpublicwater Niger Niger Nigeria T FasoBurkina Benin Sweden Russia Rwanda Kingdom United Lanka Sri USA WPI ( %) ogo po II,Esie/I Countries T his suggests petu/Rore/ 63,.4 46.0 35.2 43.9 41.3 39.3 72.4 39.4 71.5 56.2 65.0 jan have strong scores. I However, thisisnotto say thatthesewards other wards have above average scores. wards canberegarded aswater poor, all A C ofvarious the efforts high mean annual rainfall coupled with due to available resource oftherelatively these seeminglyhighscores are mainly that ofthefact inview of intervention, in thesewards stillneeded somelevel Only 2L for to water water. useandaccessibility T ruralcommunities. ofmany Nigeria typical whichis indication ofwidespread poverty of water collection. regards. scored 70and71 %respectively inthis dominant variable. Oro andEsiewards Aran- I vegetation Omu-Aran,randun,jese- ofraingives tothis quantity forested rise one ofthehighestMAR inKwarastate, is about 1,500mm. I of rainy season,where meanannualrainfall tropical continental with about 6 months T T that thesecommunitiesare endowed. capacity isweak intheL capacity also have relatively high capacity. Generally, astheL wards whichserve more Omu_Aran thanoneoccupationtype. it has the highest income range, and has vegetable business; agriculture, particularly score oncapacity. I which abound.of thefew opportunities scores. A source, whichisborehole. points because; it has only one water hastheleastwater Oko 50 years back. associations whoseexistence dated over T self-helpprojectsintheL community T wells, these wards are alsocontagious. have several handpumpsanddug ran-orin ward has thehighest petu/Rore/Aran-orin hey havehey more thanonesource ofwater. his will affect capacities to buy water, he climate ofthestudyarea ishumid hey have very strong havehey town very development alsohavehey thehighestnumbersof s regards capacity, allthewards have weak ssociations ( rin, etc.Orin, water sources is another T his is expected inruralareashis isexpected inview T GA hese wards times have shorter Arandun and Oko s namely: ) which is typical of Kwara CBA) whichistypical T his ward isrenowned for ndeed, water resources n fact, theL n fact, T hese communities ommunity Based ommunity headquarter GA headquarter GA. T his isan GA has GA. po, 47 study for I (43.9 of A comparison sources ofwater. have to low explore capacity alternative communities will wreck havoc, as locals will of the singular source of water to these because abreakdown orcontamination low scores on sources of water, these is A andfor inOko government intervention provision. M withsomeoftheCBA efforts need for government andpublic-private back into about100years.Hence, there is of someCBA areasouth senatorial where existence this has made water available and also which translate to 6months of rainfall, relatively high of resources whichmanifest inform of of below average. andArandunwhichhaveOko values fromWPI valuesabove average apart average as many of the communities have However, ruralwater supplyisrelatively above the L iswidespread insuggesting thatpoverty Also, hasleastscore capacity throughout sourcesthan oneortwo of water supply. which meansrespondents have more ofpercentagehighest valueinterms T access inthestudyarea. tiers of government at improving water oftherelevantimprovement onthepart republic. Faso, Benin,Burkina Rwanda, obtains insomeA is higher than what WPI value for Nigeria by Lawrence, et.al[2002]indicated that vein, ofthevaluespresented acomparison national average I for Nigeria. that C he results show that resources have the onclusion randun wards with low capacities and % in WPI isof inthe view strong base GA. WPI inI %) with the values obtained in this ko to 64 Oko However, there is still need for repodun L ore importantly there is needore importantly repodun isgreater thanthe s and MAR of about 1,600 mm, T he relatively strong value % in frican countries such as countries frican WPI valuesfor Nigeria GA T Esie/I own Unionsdated s (ranging between jan ward) shows T ogo and Niger ogo andNiger n thesame s inwater

91 SUSTAINABILITY 92 SUSTAINABILITY 13.

m 12. WPI required andArandun,where inOko its efforts.However, is intervention Hence, government stillneedsto double inmany ofcommunities.based efforts ofthewidespreadin view community

m 10. m 11.

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W aterAid,47 erivation and erivation W ater andP conomic C ater P sian D W W orld D orld allingford, United Kingdom. overty I overty evelopment Bank, pp.evelopment 83–91. Bank, collection of – Acollection overty – 49 o-operation: Environment. o-operation: evelopment.30 (7):1195- ssessment T ttacking poverty, Oxfordttacking orld orld esting of the ndex atdifferent scales: urham Durham W evelopment, M ater Forum heldin evelopment: “Our ashington D WHO/UNICEF; W Street, W orld orld ater W L T P ater ani- on- he ov- . C -

93 SUSTAINABILITY 94 SUSTAINABILITY w 29. w 31. w 30. sion for hygiene, sanitationandwater for Geneva. supplyandaframework action. opment Reports: Fromopment Reports: L sion making, ater orld C orld orld orld W Supply& ommission onDams(2000):and ater A ssessment P arthscan P ondon, Earthscan Sanitation Abiodun O. Adedeji received his Bachelor degree in Geography Ifatokun P. received Ifabiyi theP specializing inwater resources andwater usesintheruralareas. graduatingin 2013after from ofI theUniversity the I the D the Nigeria A the Nigeria He ismemberoftheA at local,scarcity and water regional policy and national levels. H H 2010 theEIAResearch W ydropower Research andD is research interests are water resources utilization,water ater- related Stress to Sustainable C rogram ( niversity (2004).A University lorin ollaboration epartment ofGeography,epartment of I University ublications L WWAP). (2001).I ssociation ofH C ouncil ( td. ssociation of Nigeria Geographers and ssociation ofNigeria new framework for framework evelopment: Anew deci- T eam member, NationalC WSSCC ydrologists (amongother). ndicators for the t present heisS niversity ofI evelopment, University hD degree inGeography from ) (2000) W ater Use.T V ision 21: W enior L lorin, andsince lorin, orld orld echnical Note 1. lorin. Heis lorin. W A shared ecturer at entre for ater D lorin. lorin. evel- V i- one of the main natural hazards in Russia surges, ground water level rise, etc.) are H Russian regions, coastal areas. hydrological assessment, phenomena, risk for otherhazardous phenomena. calculation risk results canbeusedinfurther was estimated based on opinion polls. results, thepercentage ofvulnerablepeople Forthe highestrisk. verification oftheindex mouth were with identifiedasterritories inthe Kubanriver and municipaldistricts indexwasdeveloped,A municipalrisk of Russia)waschosenfor adetailedanalysis. region Krasnodar (in the south-western part density, and high social vulnerability. of the hazardous events, higher population phenomena becauseofhigherfrequency indexforhigh valuesoftherisk hydrological coastalandmountainregionssouthern have low valueofthe settlement. I different scale levels: regional, municipal and ( University modified methodologyoftheUnited Nations presented in the article. assessmentare andrisk vulnerability 2 Stepan P. Zemtsov 1 Inna N.Krylenko Inna e-mail: [email protected]: 119991, Moscow, Russia; Tel. +74959392238,fax.9328836, * Moscow, Russia; Tel. +74956294386,fax.6290000 National Economy andPublic Administration, Prospect Vernadskogo 82,119571, Introduction Key Abstract IN RUSSIA HYDROLOGICAL PHENOMENA ASSESSMENT OF HAZARDOUS SOCIAL RISK AND VULNERABILITY Faculty ofGeography, Lomonosov Moscow State University, 1, Leninskiye Gory Institute ofappliedeconomic Institute research, theRussianPresidential Academy of ydrological phenomena(floods, storm e-mail: [email protected] author;e-mail: words . W t wasestimated that,despite the M : orld risk index)canbeusedon risk orld

social vulnerability, hazardous ethods andresults ofsocial W orld risk index for risk orld Russia, 2 , Natalia M. Yumina 1 *, Vyacheslav L.Baburin I t is explored if T T he he 2 , Vladimir, Yu.Litvinov tradition, partly due totradition, the orientation of partly the Russianacademic andadministrative assessmentspersistsineconomic risk km affected by floodingcovers over 0.5million [M 7.2 percentofthepopulation,are exposed et al., 2011].M etal., 2010; Gladkevich 2010; Koronkevich [M [ of social networks). of socialnetworks). social losses (e.g. injuries or destruction event occurrence probability and potential S communities. ofregionalthe socialvulnerability andlocal dedicated isalackofworks point ofview to T Fuchs et al., 2013]. et al., 2012,Birkmann 2007;Fekete, [Birkmann reported 2010; is more socialvulnerability often countries while inthesimilarstudiesotherE economic damage [Baburin et al., 2009], isontheassessmentofpotentialworks Zemtsov etal., 2012].Andthefocus inthis etal., etal.,Baburin 2011; 2009;Gladkevich considered inpublications[P economic development isonlyinfrequently onthesocio- assessment offloodimpact assessment is quiet developed in Russia, the T he maingapfor Russianstudiesfrom our ocial risk denotes asaproductofhazardousocial risk aratunin, 2008].M 2 inistry ofFinance,inistry 2011],andthearea iagkov, 1995; 2 , KlausP. Koltermann , or 2.9 per cent of Russian territory , or2.9percentofRussianterritory ore than10million people, or P etrova, 2006; eanwhile, naturalhazards

2 T he primacy ofthe he primacy 2 ,

Shoygu et al., etrova, 2006; uropean

95 SUSTAINABILITY 96 SUSTAINABILITY and itinvolves anassessment of exposed ‘exposure’, ortheamountofpotential losses, components.two Damm, 2010;Fuchs etal., 2012] consistsof the conceptof ‘risk’ 2007; [Birkmann, some modifications. Dueto theframework, [ T assessment onsettlementlevel. methods of verification and social risk and municipallevels, aswell asdeveloped existing techniques for use at the regional T regional levels. andintra- be effectively appliedonsub-national that the ‘ vulnerability. Oneofthetechnical hypotheses is and highvalueofrisk of areas withhighandvery etal., 2011];there2006; Gladkevich are anumber [P is unevenly onitsterritory distributed ofhazardous risk phenomena socio-economic indexforlow valueoftherisk Russia(0.0383),the Report [ Report (UN-EHS) and represented in the I was developed intheUnited NationsUniversity T hazard”respect to acertain [Fuchs etal., 2011]. ofan the characteristics ‘element atrisk’ with dependingon damage thatcanbeexpected is andvulnerability disaster risk, degree“the of or social)hasitsown level ofresistance to system (ecological,territorial technological for suchpurposes, becauseanycategory techniques. ‘ on society, assessment usingvulnerability hydrological phenomena,especiallyfloods, the potential influenceofhazardous T and infrastructure[Zemtsov etal., 2013]. higher thaneconomicdamageoffixed assets evaluate. However, sociallossescanbeeven etc.)networks, are muchmore difficultto national wealth (people, social knowledge, material assets.material the Russian statistics on accounting of the M nstitute for Environment and Human S W he work isbasedonthemethodology,he work which he main purpose of the work isto ofthework estimate he mainpurpose he framework ofthe he framework he authors have been able to modify the aterials orld Risk Report, 2011] was applied with Report, Risk orld W W orld Risk Report, 2011].D Report, Risk orld orld Risk I Risk orld and V ulnerability’ is a universal T he nonmaterial parts of the ofthe parts he nonmaterial methods T ndex’ ( he firstcomponentis W ) methods can WRI) methodscan orld Risk Report Report Risk orld W espite the espite the orld Risk Risk orld ecurity ecurity etrova, etrova, Statistics S T were even greater thanevaluated by the were added, becausesome valuesinRussia ‘extremely index’ high risk group of regions WRI hasthehighestvaluesfor allindices. But index.I for every from the ‘ For comparison purposes, the gradations some differences inthefactors’ influence. because ofstatistical disadvantages and in the result theywere slightly different region) index of Krasnodar risk levels, but of Russia)andmunicipal(MRI– index), regional (RRIR–regional index risk weights (WRI oninternational to usethesameorsimilarindicators and methodology ondifferent levels. wasto compare resultsthe article ofthe index,becausetheaimofin theworld of identifiedindicators anditsrelations T and itsverificationby correlation analysis. each indicator, application of the final equation normalized indicators, assessmentofweights for compilation, itstransformation of to amatrix index includedseveral iterations: database for An algorithm the integral constructing were usedonregional andmunicipallevels. the componentsthrough several indicators, C period). changes inlong-term and ‘adaptive capacity’ to adaptto (ability changes), ‘coping capacity’ abilities) (recovery system sensitivityto natural environment it includes ‘susceptibility’ (evaluation ofthe the system’s to withstandflooding; ability component, ‘vulnerability’, isusedto assess area andaffected population. Russian regions and 14 coastal municipalities according to ( theframework Databases, consistingofrelevant indicators canbeassessedmostly indirectly. community account of material assets;social ‘abilities’ of the Russian statistics, whichismore focused onthe is theresult ofthemodel adaptation for the Statistical he dataoftheRussianFederal State he authorshave assumeduniversality omplex subindices, which evaluated each of omplex subindices, whichevaluated eachof W ervice, 2012]were used.ervice, ervice [Russian Federalervice orld Risk Report’ Risk orld alsowere used t waspresumed thatthe T able 1) for 83 83 for able 1) – world risk risk – world T he second T W he study he study e tend State WRI. index [Gladkevich etal.,index [Gladkevich 2011],Exp where I used for [Fekete, normalization 2010]. E subindex. LAC subindexand lack ofthecopingcapacity denotes the subindex,LCC susceptibility the exposure index, Sus stands for the to a hazard‘flooding index’ regions were divided into groups according phenomena indifferent regions. Russian powerdestructive ofhazardous hydrological difference inintensity, duration,heightand regional level inRussiabecauseofthegreat following equati index (Vul T assessment. further a geographic information system (GIS) for created. regionof theKrasnodar in2010,were 1 developed onthemunicipallevel. E regionflood areas intheKrasnodar were M regions. of the indicator among different Russian into accountbecauseofagreat difference regional level. P considered asan ‘exposure’ componenton density, andthe obtainedindexwas multiplied by thesubindexofpopulation flooding [M T al., 2011]. rangement riverbed, thedangerofchannel andfloodplainrear determines which isforming C riverbed). ofwater discharge, type centage offloodingarea) +0.1*(curve depth offlooding)+0.1*(probability flooding) +0.1*(per u u C LAC LCC Sus Vul HEpVul Exp NH R t isessentialto assess ‘natural risk’ (I I ) and vulnerability (R)andvulnerability he indexofsocialrisk quations oflinearscaling(‘max-min’) were he proportion ofpeople, affectedhe proportion by ndex ofhazard =0.5*(duration offlooding)+0.2*(maximum aps of observed andmaximumpotential aps ofobserved =×× ++ = represents the 0.33( NH T he databaseswere integrated into ) were calculated usingthe represents the inistry ofFinance,inistry 2011],was opulation density was taken wastaken opulation density 1 ons: ;

lack of adaptive capacity lack ofadaptive capacity urve ofwater discharge,urve forming ),

1 natural hazard [Gladkevich et [Gladkevich NH valuation ) onthe

entails (2) (1) - - improved sanitationper capita; minimum; population with incomes below subsistence olds population); in relation to the working ratio (share ofunder15-andover 65 –year- population livinginfragile dwellings; where by indicators. selected of several parameters, whichwere assessed according to ( theframework T prone areas. ofpeoplelivinginflood to aproportion index’ for indexwasassigned municipal risk altitude [Zemtsov etal., 2012].An ‘exposure of potential floodareas wasbasedonthe region; oftheKrasnodar for themunicipaldistricts where buildings without sewage system;buildings withoutsewage regional product. the Russianregions; source; subindex of share of buildings without water Sus Sus Sus ++ Sus ++ ++ ++ Sus + Sus ++ ++ ++ Sus he subindices of vulnerability index,he subindices ofvulnerability 0.1425 0.1425 0.145 0.1425 025, 0.285 0.1425 0.1425 0.145 rgl dwell fragile dependance subsist reg reg reg reg mun = Sus = Sus Sus Sus Sus Sus _ Sus Sus 0.1425 _min Sus Sus Sus Sus 0.285 reg sanitation rgl dwell fragile rgl dwell fragile mun w goods own mun reg mun mun dependance reg sewage reg Sus subsist sewage o serv soc subsist reg reg mun mun is a subindex of dependency isasubindexofdependency isasubindexofshare of is a susceptibility subindexfor isasusceptibility isasubindexofshare ofthe _ _ is a susceptibility subindex isasusceptibility GRP reg _ _ _min _min isasubindexofshare of sanitation ae source water mun reg isasubindexofGross isasubindexof lengthof _ .8 , 0.285 Sus + ae source water reg (4) T Sus + able 1),consist _ GRP reg (3) isa

97 SUSTAINABILITY 98 SUSTAINABILITY

Table 1. Parameters of vulnerability for each level of assessment Susceptibility subindex

Public infrastructure Housing conditions Nutrition Poverty and dependencies Economic capacity

28.5 % – 14.5 % 28.5 % 28.5 % Population share without access to No (Share of the popula- Share of the population under- Dependency ratio. Extreme poverty popu- GDP per capita (purchasing WRI improved sanitation. Population share tion living in slums) nourished lation living with USD 1.25 per day or less power parity). Gini index without access to improved sanitation (purchasing power parity) 28.5 % 14.5 % – 28.5 % 28.5 % Share of buildings without water Share of the population No Dependency ratio (share of under 15- and Gross regional product (*In-

RRIR source. Share of buildings without sew- living in fragile dwellings over 65 – year-olds in relation to the work- dex of prices). Gini index age system ing population). Share of population with incomes below subsistence minimum 28.5 % 14.5 % – 28.5 % 28.5 % Length of improved water source per Percentage of inhabitants No Population share with incomes below the sub- Sales of own-produced

MRI capita. Length of improved sanitation in fragile dwellings sistence minimum. Population share of benefit- goods, works and services per capita ing from social assistance. Population share of / people served by social services at home

Lack of coping capacity subindex (ILCC) Government and authorities Disaster preparedness Medical services Social networks Material coverage 45 % – 45 % – 10 % Corruption Perception Index. Good No Number of beds per 10000 in- No Insurances WRI governance (Failed States Index) habitants. Number of physicians per 10000 inhabitants 45 % 45 % – 10 % The ratio of income to expenses. The Subsidies per km of coastline Number of beds per 10000 in- No Social and medical insur-

RRIR share of foreign direct investment in habitants. Number of physicians ances per capita assets of the region. Number of state per 10000 inhabitants employees per 1000 people. 45 % 45 % 10 %

MRI Unemployment rate. Percentage of No Number of beds per 10000 inhabitants. Number of physicians per 10000 inhabit- Average monthly wages per own revenues of local budgets ants. Share of public order protection groups capita Continue Table 1

Lack of adaptive capacity subindex (ILAC)

Education Gender equity Environmental management Adaptation strategies Investment

25 % 25 % 25 % – 25 % Adult literacy rate. Combined gross Education gender parity. Water resources. Biodiversity. No Public health expenditure. WRI school enrolment Share of female representa- Forest and agricultural manage- Life expectancy at birth. tives in parliament ment Private health expenditure 20 % 20 % 20 % 20 % 20 % Share of people with high education. Proportion of unemploy- Water resources. Share of forest Diversification of labour market Private investment per as-

RRIR Share of people without education ment rates between female recovery sets. Expenditure budget and male share of education and science 0.25 – 25 % – 50 %

MRI Share of employed people with high No Observed /Maximum flood area Diversification of labour market Private investment per education capita Source: World Risk Report (2012). Indicators, excluded after verification, are shown in italics. below thesubsistence minimum; of populationshare withincomes indicator. were used for clarification of the climate regions condition)between indices(depended onRussia; price is highlydifferentiated throughout and independentregional society. I indicator ofeconomicallydeveloped regional product(GRP) percapitaisan due to climate conditions. Gross regions€270 permonthbetween fromminimum, whichvaries €95to with incomesbelow subsistence measured asashare ofpopulation was floods.during poverty Extreme with children, are more affected peopleandfamiliesinclude elderly S are more prone to destruction. all Russianregions; fragile dwellings population, whichisnotcommonfor study than undernourished particular parameter foris amore this important potential damage. Housingconditions the outflow rainfallandreduce ofheavy regulatewater networks while sewage providenetworks accessto drinking of theinfrastructureparameter. development was used as an indicator (sanitation)systemand sewage of theregion ( population and economic potential condition, social protection of on thestate ofinfrastructure, housing depends ofacommunity Susceptibility percapita. and services sales ofown-produced goods, works home; at by socialservices share ofserved dwellings; percentage ofinhabitantsinfragile Sus Sus ocially vulnerablegroups, which rgl dwell fragile o serv soc mun mun _ Sus _ isasubindexofpopulation w goods own mun Sus isasubindexof _ subsist mun T able 1). _min is a subindex of isa subindex W ater supply W ater t

99 SUSTAINABILITY 100 SUSTAINABILITY order protection groups; number ofphysicians per10000inhabitants; unemployment rate; investment inassetsoftheregion; a subindex of share of foreign direct capacity onregionalcapacity level; local budgets; subindex of percentage of own revenues of level; subindexonmunicipalcoping capacity inhabitants; a subindexofnumberbedsper10000 where where insurances percapita. a community. relationships of andmaterialprosperity social development ofhealthservices, of local authorities, to the efficiency linked to recoverAbility is (coping capacity) of average monthlywagespercapita. revenues were used asindicators withinthe Unemployment rate andpercentage ofown of coastline. people andsubsidiesperkm number ofstate employees per1,000 of foreign directinvestment inassets, ratio ofincometo expenses, percentage theeffectivenessdescribe ofauthorities: number of physicians per 10000 inhabitants; number ofphysicians per10000inhabitants; C LCC LCC LCC LCC LCC LCC + + ++ +× × + ++ + 01, 0.225 0.1 0.225 0.225 0.225 insur ulprotec publ mun reg reg mun LCC LCC = _ LCC LCC LCC LCC is a subindex of social and medical = LCC insur reg 0.45 LCC 0.225 reg ugreven budg beds mun reg mun unempl mun LCC ulprotec publ mun is a subindex for lack of coping is a subindex of share of public isasubindexofshare ofpublic LCC _ isasubindexfor lack of T oeg invest foreign _ reg physicians reg he following ratioscan is a subindex of unempl physician mun mun _ 0.225 LCC LCC isasubindexof . , 0.1 + physicians is a subindex of isasubindexof reg LCC wage mun + LCC ugreven budg mun LCC oeg invest foreign reg is a subindex is a subindex physician mun _ wage mun LCC _ (5) isa beds reg (6) is is employed peoplewithhigheducation; where maximum floodarea; where and science. of expenditure budgetshare ofeducation subindex of diversification of labour market; subindex ofdiversification oflabourmarket; education; is a subindex of share of people without female andmale; ofunemployment rates between proportion adaptive capacity onmunicipal level;adaptive capacity adaptive capacity onregionaladaptive capacity level; per fixed assets; share of forest recovery; share offorest recovery; strategy. I indicator ofpotential adaptation important C Northern some traditionalM greatly regions, between varying except areexist, but they disparities Gender not systems andinvestment attractiveness. development oftechnical of labourmarket, education, genderparity, diversification rate A investmentof private percapita. development ofsocialties. public order, whichwaschosento assessthe in volunteer groups for the protection of ofparticipants MRI, aswell asproportion LAC LAC LAC LAC LAC LAC LAC LAC ++ ++ ++ ++ daptive capacity wasestimateddaptive by capacity level of 010.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.25 lo r flood invest iheduc high e reg reg mun mun reg mun A LAC LAC A LAC LAC LAC =++ _ LAC _inf LAC = invest is a subindex of private investment isasubindexofprivate reg . 0.2 0.2 oetdiversif forest reg erfindahl t wascalculated by theHerfindahl 0.25 lo invest r flood mun aucasus. is an Labour diversity mun reg is a subindex of observed / isasubindexofobserved isasubindexofshare of LAC _inf is a subindex for lack of educ isasubindexfor lack of LAC female reg iheduc high mun LAC dcend educ reg uslim societiesinthe . , 0.5 _ dcend educ reg LAC reg isasubindexof forest reg LAC _exp _exp invest mun + isasubindexof mun female reg LAC isasubindex isasubindex ,

diversif reg (7) LAC (8) isa educ reg

most common sphere of activity (job); (job); most common sphere of activity the concentrationrate: the proportion of the next common job; of the next the proportion T represented initalics for (excluded ourfinalselection indicators are excluding criterion than 0.3)wasanimportant indicator and vulnerability subindices (less an index (lessthan0.15)andbetween anindicatorbetween andthevulnerability shown inthetables2and3.L C and itspotential for diversification. indicator ofthearea oftheattractiveness flooding areas. P (based onthealtitudewith0.05probability) (before 2010)andmaximumpotential observed between estimated asaproportion job. ofthelastcommon includes theproportion – H 2 same reasons were excludedmarket) from theMRIfor the 10,000 inhabitants, diversification oflabour from socialassistance, numberofbedsper per capita,populationshare ofbenefiting indicators (lengthofimproved water source future adaptationincaseofflooding. S and science)becauseofitshighvaluefor expenditure in the budget for education investment perfixed assets, andshare of private (diversification ofthelabourmarket, threatening thehealthandlives ofpeople. are regular, affecting theeconomy and level. Hazardous hydrological phenomena ataheightof1-2metersRiver above sea area islocated onthedeltaofKuban highest risk index in Krasnodar region. indexinKrasnodar highest risk whichhasthe municipal district, Slavyansk the method, in usingfielddata,collected T (14 districts). municipal cases of number small to the due limitations certain with used where SS SS I C HH he purpose ofthelaststage he purpose here were someexceptions for I orrelation matrixes fororrelation theindicators are orrelation analysis between indicator and indices can be be can indices and indicator between analysis orrelation irschman index(I =++ T he technical was systems capacity 12 22 22 S 1 represents ofthe theproportion 2 . ..+, ...+ rivate investmentrivate isan n HH

T ), whichcanestimate able 1). ow correlation ow correlation was to verify (9) everal S T LAC 2 he S – n

A several local communities (settlements): in inthesurvey respondents participated representative by ageandgender, 485 of the people.vulnerability and20 questions about susceptibility T T exposure withtheMRI. indexincomparison them, whichismore accurate assessmentof ofpopulationon of floodinganddensity Exposed populationwere assessedby areas dams(0.001). ofearthen destruction and reservoir overspill oftheKrasnodar 3. catastrophic thebreakout/ floodingafter withmediumlevel ofdanger(0.01); breakage dams 2. floodingdueto embankment settlements is0.99); (averagerise probabilityfor mostofthe 1. widespread process ofground water level degree ofdanger( classified into three groups, according to the Hazardous hydrological phenomenawere 3 of the disaster in analogue territories. analogue in disaster the of estimation of social risk. estimation ofsocialrisk. authors proposed an equation for financial For assessment, the socialrisk further flooding. indexfor a socialvulnerability catastrophic and lessvulnerable(57.5 %)willbeusedas flooding; thesumofpercentages for most an index of social vulnerability (V an indexofsocialvulnerability most vulnerable. to canbeattributed thegroupdistrict ofthe index. 41.5 %ofthetotal populationinSlavyansk ( less andmostvulnerablepeoplewasestimated questions,selected thepercentage ofweakly, ( the mostrelated andvaluablequestions [Fekete, to 2010]wasconducted identify C Zaboyskiy, andD Urma robability of disasters was estimated according to frequency to frequency according estimated was disasters of Probability T T he index of exposure declined from 0.7 to 0.3. he questionnaire consisted ofmore than omponent analysis of the collected dataomponent analysisofthecollected chuevo, able 5). able 4). A 4). able T his proportion was called vulnerability wascalledvulnerability his proportion Anastasievskoe, ccording to the answers of the ccording to theanswers ofthe T his proportion will be used as willbeusedas his proportion j ) 3 [Zemtsov etal., 2013]: erevyankovka. W e supposedthat 5 P ) for medium ) for medium rikubanskiy, P olls were

101 SUSTAINABILITY 102 SUSTAINABILITY 31 30 29 27 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 15 14 13 12 11 10 36 34 32 9 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

ack of coping capacity index Lack ofcopingcapacity usceptibility index Susceptibility Exposure index Natural hazard index education andscience Share ofexpenditure inthebudgetfor P Diversification oftheGRPstructure iversification of the labour market Diversification ofthelabourmarket Share ofrecovered forest W between femalebetween and male P education Share ofemployed peoplewithout education Share ofemployed peoplewithhigh per capita Budget ofsocialandmedicalinsurances 10000 inhabitants Number ofphysicians per habitants Number ofhospitalbedsper10000in- coastline T 1000 people Number ofgovernment employees per the fixed assets of the region T T Gini index Gross regional product subsistence minimum Share ofpopulationwithincomesbelow D RRIR dwellings Share ofthepopulationlivinginfragile V water source Share ofthebuildingswithoutimproved ack of adaptive capacity index Lack ofadaptive capacity system Share ofthebuildingswithoutsewage rivate investmentrivate perfixed assets he cost of subsidies per kilometre of he costofsubsidiesperkilometre he share offoreign directinvestment in he ratioofincometo expenses roportion ofunemployment rates roportion ulnerability index ulnerability ependency ratio ependency ater resources -0,21 -0,21 -0,23 -0,26 -0,17 -0,02 -0,33 -0,29 -0,12 -0,07 -0,21 -0,37 -0,19 -0,12 0,12 0,87 0,11 0,04 0,09 0,23 0,16 0,51 0,38 0,17 0,57 0,95 -0,3 0,1 0,1 1 1 -0,17 -0,32 -0,19 -0,11 -0,27 -0,32 -0,17 -0,14 -0,45 -0,07 0,24 0,91 0,06 0,31 0,16 0,19 0,19 0,52 0,45 0,21 0,95 -0,1 -0,3 -0,4 -0,3 0,1 0,7 0 2 1 0 -0,05 -0,05 -0,34 -0,08 -0,06 -0,13 -0,23 0,37 0,11 0,39 0,15 0,19 0,27 0,32 0,18 0,28 0,38 0,07 0,16 0,17 0,19 0,28 0,21 0,17 0,4 0,4 0,1 0,2 0,2 3 1 -0,03 -0,71 -0,03 -0,52 -0,54 -0,38 -0,38 -0,72 -0,13 -0,24 -0,15 -0,36 -0,11 -0,46 -0,73 -0,23 -0,04 0,25 0,53 0,06 0,28 0,09 0,25 0,09 0,09 0,46 0,45 0,38 0,2 4 1 -0,06 -0,03 -0,09 -0,03 -0,26 -0,11 -0,22 -0,01 -0,08 -0,37 -0,36 -0,01 -0,14 0,62 0,03 0,25 0,29 0,04 0,35 0,27 0,03 0,09 0,17 0,34 0,52 0,51 -0,1 0,1 0 5 1 -0,24 -0,06 -0,01 -0,19 -0,35 -0,11 -0,36 -0,73 -0,27 -0,49 -0,45 -0,37 -0,22 0,65 0,85 0,35 0,22 0,09 0,64 0,02 0,08 0,33 0,16 0,56 0,16 0,01 -0,6 -0,1 -0,2 6 1 -0,26 -0,19 -0,16 -0,13 -0,07 -0,26 -0,37 -0,46 -0,14 -0,21 -0,01 0,23 0,28 0,11 0,14 0,22 0,13 0,35 0,02 0,06 0,56 0,02 0,07 0,09 -0,2 -0,3 0,4 0 7 0 1 -0,09 -0,12 -0,02 -0,03 -0,12 -0,01 -0,24 -0,27 -0,26 -0,11 -0,02 -0,13 -0,05 -0,25 0,09 0,08 0,05 0,13 0,08 0,16 0,12 0,04 0,03 0,19 0,16 -0,1 0,1 0,1 0,2 9 1 -0,07 -0,02 -0,22 -0,06 -0,01 -0,08 -0,08 -0,11 -0,27 -0,14 -0,07 -0,45 0,16 0,27 0,17 0,23 0,15 0,18 0,31 0,37 0,28 0,06 0,16 0,02 0,04 -0,2 0,1 0,2 10 0 1 Table Correlation 2. -0,13 -0,28 -0,28 -0,04 -0,04 -0,36 -0,22 -0,11 -0,13 -0,29 0,13 0,63 0,22 0,62 0,06 0,54 0,06 0,07 0,28 0,02 0,33 0,27 0,38 0,19 0,23 0,1 0,4 0,1 11 0 1 -0,03 -0,09 -0,16 -0,07 -0,07 -0,15 0,23 0,38 0,08 0,01 0,29 0,11 0,44 0,38 0,13 0,07 0,04 0,35 0,28 0,29 0,16 0,09 0,09 0,24 -0,2 0,2 0,2 0,5 12 1 0 -0,17 -0,04 -0,08 -0,05 -0,35 -0,17 -0,08 -0,24 -0,13 -0,06 -0,51 -0,17 -0,19 -0,12 -0,66 0,12 0,01 0,28 0,33 0,16 0,13 0,06 0,12 0,08 0,04 0,4 13 0 0 1 0 matrix for RRIR for matrix -0,35 -0,16 -0,36 -0,29 -0,07 -0,34 -0,48 -0,13 -0,84 -0,13 -0,19 0,06 -0,15 0,02 0,48 0,37 0,16 0,02 0,29 0,09 0,18 0,39 -0,3 0,4 0,4 0,4 14 0,1 0 1 0 -0,51 -0,17 -0,44 -0,16 -0,27 -0,56 -0,17 -0,39 -0,72 -0,16 0,08 -0,23 0,42 -0,29 0,63 0,17 0,15 0,16 0,54 0,31 0,35 0,64 0,32 0,85 -0,3 -0,5 -0,1 -0,4 0,4 15 1 -0,04 -0,29 -0,01 -0,19 -0,24 -0,12 -0,01 -0,38 -0,21 -0,21 -0,32 0,05 -0,33 0,22 0,03 0,28 0,15 0,15 0,38 0,57 0,13 0,09 0,12 0,87 0,19 0,1 17 0 1 0 0 -0,03 -0,18 -0,18 -0,44 -0,36 -0,17 -0,04 -0,01 -0,35 0,06 0,07 0,15 0,44 0,51 0,66 0,45 0,25 0,41 0,25 0,27 0,22 0,31 -0,2 -0,2 -0,3 0,2 0,5 0,4 18 0,1 1 -0,15 -0,04 -0,16 -0,12 -0,22 -0,24 -0,38 0,13 -0,27 0,11 0,28 0,17 0,06 0,18 0,43 0,14 0,22 0,22 0,06 0,27 0,33 0,22 0,08 -0,3 0,2 0,2 0,8 0,3 19 1 0 -0,32 -0,08 -0,18 -0,12 -0,03 -0,36 -0,24 -0,45 -0,08 -0,54 -0,24 0,16 -0,11 -0,02 0,11 0,03 0,63 0,48 0,33 0,11 0,62 0,15 0,14 0,35 0,04 0,72 0,1 0,4 20 0,3 1 -0,03 -0,07 -0,08 -0,04 -0,17 -0,04 -0,06 -0,18 -0,16 -0,04 -0,11 -0,08 -0,19 -0,11 -0,17 -0,02 0,07 0,22 0,02 0,28 0,29 0,29 0,08 0,03 0,09 0,31 0,17 -0,3 -0,1 21 1 -0,05 -0,07 -0,32 -0,15 -0,51 -0,35 -0,35 -0,28 -0,22 -0,19 -0,19 -0,11 -0,02 -0,34 -0,02 -0,19 0,06 0,05 0,01 0,02 0,13 0,23 0,03 0,45 0,28 0,06 0,04 -0,3 0,1 22 1 -0,05 -0,03 -0,18 -0,04 -0,05 -0,09 -0,22 -0,02 -0,31 -0,12 -0,26 -0,43 -0,52 -0,22 -0,02 -0,26 0,16 0,13 0,42 0,22 0,23 0,05 0,85 0,19 0,46 0,02 -0,3 0,4 23 1 0 -0,19 -0,02 -0,03 -0,04 -0,21 -0,01 -0,08 -0,03 -0,03 0,02 0,08 0,08 0,06 0,01 0,08 0,17 0,06 0,05 0,11 0,06 0,15 0,02 0,06 0,11 0,11 0,3 0,1 0,1 24 0 1 -0,11 -0,03 -0,19 -0,12 -0,48 -0,14 -0,41 -0,09 -0,34 -0,71 -0,16 0,46 -0,32 -0,23 0,72 0,22 0,19 0,85 0,39 0,12 0,63 0,27 -0,3 0,28 0,65 -0,3 0,39 0,11 -0,1 25 1 -0,02 -0,02 -0,24 -0,23 -0,15 -0,08 -0,28 -0,02 -0,06 -0,03 -0,06 -0,03 -0,05 -0,16 -0,21 0,17 0,33 0,22 0,17 0,58 0,08 0,14 0,23 0,31 0,16 0,25 0,02 -0,1 0,2 27 1 -0,22 -0,16 -0,19 -0,04 -0,13 -0,09 -0,24 -0,06 -0,01 -0,17 0,06 -0,21 0,31 0,04 0,27 0,46 0,38 0,16 0,85 0,12 0,12 0,19 0,06 0,11 0,25 0,06 -0,1 0,3 29 0 1 -0,43 -0,02 -0,11 -0,08 -0,24 -0,26 -0,39 -0,17 -0,07 -0,26 -0,01 -0,06 -0,34 0,41 0,09 0,23 0,13 0,08 0,09 0,74 0,62 0,53 0,37 0,91 0,87 -0,6 0,2 30 0,1 0 1 -0,12 -0,04 -0,45 -0,84 -0,66 -0,29 -0,45 -0,25 -0,01 -0,22 -0,05 -0,41 0,45 -0,08 0,06 0,23 0,24 0,37 0,73 0,27 0,25 0,19 0,16 -0,5 0,24 0,12 0,5 0,2 31 1 0 -0,24 -0,06 -0,17 -0,19 -0,13 -0,05 -0,14 -0,04 0,05 -0,14 0,03 -0,12 -0,21 0,45 0,09 0,04 0,33 0,47 -0,3 0,09 0,01 0,27 0,12 0,31 -0,3 0,8 0,2 32 1 0 0 -0,31 -0,18 -0,36 -0,07 -0,56 -0,48 -0,51 -0,11 -0,27 -0,14 -0,49 -0,48 0,23 -0,04 0,14 0,66 0,29 0,34 0,47 0,73 0,34 0,74 0,46 0,12 0,28 0,14 0,57 -0,1 0,7 34 1 -0,22 -0,12 -0,34 -0,13 -0,22 -0,02 -0,27 -0,01 -0,07 -0,19 0,02 -0,19 0,29 0,43 0,51 0,43 0,02 0,34 0,02 0,33 0,37 0,08 0,09 0,85 0,19 0,58 -0,3 0,06 0,5 36 1

103 SUSTAINABILITY 104 SUSTAINABILITY 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Lack ofadaptive capacity Lack ofcopingcapacity Susceptibility V Exposure M P Diversification ofthelabourmarket M education Share ofemployed peoplewithgood A order of populationfor theprotection ofpublic groups involuntary Share ofparticipants inhabitants Number ofphysicians per10000 habitants Number ofhospitalbedsper10000in- budgets T Unemployment rate services /people services Sales ofown-produced goods, and works senior citizens anddisabled athomefor ofsocialservices departments T services from socialassistanceto pay for housing T below thesubsistence minimum T dwellings T L L ength ofsewer system ength ofwater pipenetworks rivate investmentrivate perpeople he share ofown revenues oflocal ulnerability he share of the population served by the he share ofthepopulationserved he share ofthepopulationbenefiting he share ofthepopulationwithincomes he share oftheinhabitantsinfragile verage monthlywagespercapita unicipal Risk I unicipal Risk bserved floodarea aximum /Observed ndex

-0,58 -0,13 -0,78 -0,89 -0,22 -0,53 -0,46 -0,37 -0,20 0,32 0,69 0,11 0,59 0,63 0,68 0,17 0,33 0,09 0,54 0,49 0,36 0,13 1,00 1 -0,40 -0,10 -0,20 -0,02 -0,05 -0,20 -0,13 -0,13 -0,05 -0,20 -0,48 -0,31 -0,38 0,15 0,32 0,46 0,69 0,15 0,16 0,22 0,05 1,00 0,13 2 -0,13 -0,04 -0,11 -0,29 -0,25 -0,39 -0,38 -0,06 -0,14 -0,01 -0,38 -0,20 0,13 0,18 0,40 0,32 0,61 0,24 0,00 0,09 0,01 0,03 1,00 3 -0,28 -0,10 -0,55 -0,03 -0,53 -0,28 -0,34 -0,09 -0,01 -0,31 0,03 0,41 0,66 0,51 0,27 0,30 0,31 0,02 0,18 0,61 0,57 1,00 0,36 4 -0,37 -0,37 -0,24 -0,23 -0,25 -0,03 -0,08 -0,30 -0,25 -0,19 -0,41 -0,09 -0,37 0,37 0,32 0,59 0,18 0,26 0,45 0,45 1,00 0,03 0,05 5 -0,49 -0,14 -0,02 -0,21 -0,65 -0,56 -0,44 -0,52 -0,41 -0,14 0,47 0,40 0,46 0,62 0,23 0,31 0,02 0,40 0,64 1,00 0,57 0,22 0,49 6 -0,08 -0,27 -0,69 -0,46 -0,31 -0,33 -0,15 -0,42 -0,31 -0,05 -0,49 -0,52 -0,19 -0,34 -0,48 -0,46 0,35 0,04 0,73 0,46 0,23 1,00 0,01 7 Table 3. Correlation -0,51 -0,07 -0,20 -0,77 -0,18 -0,72 -0,53 -0,49 -0,25 -0,06 -0,20 0,33 0,63 0,49 0,71 0,14 0,19 0,13 0,45 1,00 0,64 0,61 0,54 8 -0,57 -0,77 -0,26 -0,81 -0,07 -0,19 -0,53 -0,44 -0,28 -0,38 -0,53 0,14 0,11 0,20 0,60 0,42 0,36 0,64 0,02 1,00 0,23 0,45 0,16 9 -0,16 -0,27 -0,28 -0,18 -0,20 -0,16 -0,05 -0,30 -0,05 -0,22 0,24 0,19 0,09 0,03 0,01 0,00 0,06 1,00 0,02 0,45 0,40 0,18 0,09 10 matrix for MR for matrix -0,34 -0,86 -0,30 -0,77 -0,59 -0,66 -0,30 -0,72 -0,56 -0,53 -0,89 0,61 0,02 0,23 0,85 0,15 1,00 0,06 0,64 0,46 0,45 0,00 0,15 11 -0,06 -0,57 -0,02 -0,36 -0,23 -0,28 -0,08 -0,04 -0,02 -0,16 -0,18 -0,31 -0,03 -0,39 0,63 0,77 1,00 0,15 0,36 0,02 0,26 0,69 0,09 12 -0,28 -0,69 -0,46 -0,71 -0,55 -0,61 -0,30 -0,08 -0,02 -0,77 -0,65 -0,55 -0,13 -0,78 0,79 0,08 1,00 0,85 0,00 0,42 0,73 0,18 0,24 13 -0,30 -0,51 -0,35 -0,09 -0,14 -0,10 -0,08 -0,20 -0,20 -0,42 -0,21 -0,25 -0,13 0,22 0,41 0,08 1,00 0,77 0,23 0,60 0,59 0,02 0,46 14 -0,72 -0,21 -0,15 -0,38 -0,30 -0,04 -0,30 -0,18 -0,15 -0,02 -0,08 -0,29 -0,13 0,22 0,01 0,72 0,58 1,00 0,08 0,20 0,13 0,31 0,33 15 -0,34 -0,23 -0,11 -0,32 -0,29 -0,07 -0,38 -0,07 -0,14 -0,03 -0,10 -0,11 0,38 1,00 0,41 0,08 0,63 0,02 0,01 0,11 0,04 0,32 0,17 16 -0,35 -0,45 -0,41 -0,39 -0,43 -0,07 -0,15 -0,10 -0,08 -0,51 -0,49 -0,28 -0,20 -0,58 0,04 1,00 0,79 0,61 0,03 0,14 0,35 0,32 0,61 17 -0,05 -0,43 -0,29 -0,14 -0,61 -0,28 -0,66 -0,28 -0,19 -0,33 -0,25 -0,04 -0,05 0,63 0,15 0,40 0,98 1,00 0,58 0,19 0,31 0,30 0,68 18 -0,21 -0,39 -0,32 -0,09 -0,55 -0,23 -0,59 -0,27 -0,07 -0,31 -0,23 -0,13 -0,02 0,54 0,08 0,24 1,00 0,98 0,72 0,14 0,23 0,27 0,63 19 -0,41 -0,11 -0,21 -0,35 -0,71 -0,36 -0,77 -0,81 -0,46 -0,24 -0,20 0,65 0,83 0,57 1,00 0,24 0,40 0,09 0,71 0,62 0,51 0,32 0,59 20 -0,23 -0,46 -0,02 -0,30 -0,26 -0,69 -0,10 0,03 0,28 1,00 0,57 0,08 0,15 0,04 0,01 0,22 0,19 0,49 0,46 0,37 0,66 0,40 0,11 21 -0,45 -0,34 -0,51 -0,69 -0,57 -0,86 -0,16 -0,77 -0,27 -0,37 -0,40 0,31 1,00 0,28 0,83 0,54 0,63 0,22 0,63 0,40 0,41 0,18 0,69 22 -0,21 -0,05 -0,35 -0,72 -0,30 -0,28 -0,06 -0,34 -0,57 -0,08 -0,37 1,00 0,31 0,03 0,65 0,38 0,24 0,33 0,47 0,03 0,13 0,15 0,32 23

105 SUSTAINABILITY 106 SUSTAINABILITY

Table 4. The combination of answers for groups of people with different value of vulnerability

The most vulnerable Less vulnerable The least vulnerable

Can you provide the safety of your life? No In part. Do not know Yes

What is your age? 0–16; >66 56–65 >16; <56

How many years do you live in the area? Less than 1; 1–5 5–20 > 20

Did you experience flood? No Once More than once

Table 5. The distribution of the vulnerability groups

Frequency Per cent Valid per cent Cumulative per cent

The most vulnerable 192 40.5 41.5 41.5

Less vulnerable 74 15.6 16.0 57.5

The least vulnerable 197 41.6 42.5 100

Total 463 97.7 100 a statisticallife lossvalue per oneperson is an indicator of an average health losses 2007]); death rate (0.05ifj=2;0.1=3[EMER Russia (≈€1.5m per life lost [Guriev 2010]), [Guriev L lost and (≈€1.5m life Russia per USA and the between difference product domestic gross for according to thedegree ofdanger(j); of exposedpeopleinasettlementi, (catastrophic) [EMER (0.02 ifj=2(mediumflooding)or0.05=3 potential victims killed during anevent. during killed potential victims a flooding,during and ‘lost’ people, who are ‘victims’, whoare injured potential victims canbedividedinto categories: two social risk 5 (≈ Russia in ment dismember for coverage insurance medical free average is an 4 V index(inshares);is thesocialvulnerability estimation: where and Russia (≈€ 5,000 per capita, Guriev 2010), Guriev L and capita, per 5,000 (≈€ Russia USA and the USA lost [ lost (≈ earner primary to the respect with a family and coeff V V E D ×× ×× +

L L Victims 1 1 L ∑ Social ij is an average value of life insurances in the USA the in insurances life of value average isan , is a share of an average health insurance coverage in the the in coverage insurance health average an of is ashare , adjusted for gross domestic product difference between between difference product domestic gross for , adjusted R EME ( L coeff V V E 2 ji ij ij ij isusedby EMER is the ‘normative’ share of ‘victims’ ×× = COM 2007]). coeff L ∑ ij isan approach for financial , ( € 1,200 per capita). per € 1,200 L Lost 1 jij ij isproposed by theauthors otLost Lost isafinancialestimationof 4 ; V COM, 2007]);coeff ij Lost itm Victims Victims Fig. 1. Exposure index distribution in Russia in 2010 in Russia in distribution index 1.Fig. Exposure COM; Eisanumber L isthe ‘normative’ 5 . T ) , he proposed he L € 50,000 per life life per € 50,000 2 is the loss of of loss is the , adjusted , adjusted ) + Victims COM, (10) V (5) 2 -

6 losses, etc.) losses in financial terms health expenditure, future demographic and indirect(e.g. previous educationand (e.g. lost possible future profits, taxes, etc.) society”, because it corresponds to all direct method canbecalledasa “real lossfor impossible becauseofthelack ofthe ‘nutrition’ them is between (0.21), and comparison RRIR ismuchhigherthanitwithinthe T C Saha); the opposite is true for the Northern (except M regions withthelowest populationdensity lowest exposure values are found typically in low exposure indexvalue(Fig.a very 1). have Russia is0.094,butmostoftheterritories O Russia risk of Regional index is onlyusedfor familycompensation issues. withEMER comparison is hard for government or business to ignore safety rules. safety to ignore business or government for is hard I 2009]. [Guriev insurance medical and life as expressed be can which assessment, own T risks. social and economic comparing for approaches sonable & T Results M he best way to assess anyone’s value of life is only through his his through is only life of value anyone’s to assess way best he he susceptibility index(Fig.he susceptibility 2)withinthe aucasus regions. verall exposure subindexwithinthe aylor 2002; V 2002; aylor onetization of life loss is debatable issue in literature [ literature in issue isdebatable loss life of onetization and agadan region of andRepublic iscusi &A iscusi discussion ldy 2003], but it is one of the most rea most the of isone it 2003], but ldy f life insurance is common in society, it it society, in iscommon insurance f life COM method, which WRI for M 6 WRI rozek rozek T in in he he -

107 SUSTAINABILITY 108 SUSTAINABILITY of Kalmikiya) were allocated. M of Kalmikiya) T and P and sociallydeveloped M the exposure index: only most economically parameter. I the mostunderdeveloped (the yva, the yva, etersburg,M oil-productionKhanti- Y amalo-Nenetsky regions and three amalo-Nenetsky of r epublic ofAltay, andthe t is much less distributed than t ismuchlessdistributed Fig. 3. Lack of coping capacity subindex distribution in Russia in 2010 in Russia in distribution subindex capacity coping of Lack 3. Fig. Fig. 2. Susceptibility subindex distribution in subindexdistribution Fig. Russia in Susceptibility 2010 2. oscow, Saint- r ost ofthe epublic of r ansiysky ansiysky epublic indicators percapita. because ofhigherinvestment andhigher Far regions eastern have thelowest values and itcoincideswithits subindex(Fig.of thecopingcapacity 3), L subindex. susceptibility regions highrate ofthe have ahighandvery ow andmediumvaluesprevail inthelack WRI value(0.597). values are higher. I high rate andtolerance. ofinvestment activity (Fig. values are intheNorth 4)becauseofthe most regionally component. variable T the T n traditional regions of southern Russia, the n traditionalregions Russia,the ofsouthern he lack of the adaptive capacity subindex is the subindex isthe he lackoftheadaptive capacity he vulnerability indexofRussiawithinhe vulnerability WRI isapproximately 0.41(Fig. 5). Fig. 4. Lack of adaptive capacity subindex distribution in Russia in 2010 in Russia in distribution subindex capacity adaptive of Lack 4. Fig. T he WRI valueis0.42. Fig. 5. Vulnerability in index distribution Russia in 2010 T he lowest he lowest concentrations in river valleys and estuaries and estuaries concentrations inrivervalleys of their higher population densities, regions have indexbecause thehighestrisk territories. S of theRRIR(Fig. 6),except several southern M common. T he highvalueoftheindexismost ost of the regions low value have a very outhern coastalandmountain outhern

109 SUSTAINABILITY 110 SUSTAINABILITY population and economicactivity. havethey ahigherconcentration of of functions, a variety can perform since they higher concentrationofhazards; however, geographical position, coastal areas have a Region. Dueto theirunique of Krasnodar assessmentofcoastalmunicipalitiesrisk Russia. to hazardous hydrological phenomenain its coastalzone, isoneofthemostexposed the highest RRIR (0.12). detailed analysisasoneoftheregions with regionKrasnodar was chosen for amore Krasnodar municipal risk index of verification. stable, whichcanbeinterpreted asaform versions oftheRRIRis0.99. coefficient ofcorrelationtwo between correlation analysis, were compared. exclusionafter ofsomeindicators dueto T and therepublic ofKabardino-Balkaria. Ossetia of Dagestan,therepublic ofNorthern for Krasnodar, Saratov regions, therepublic cases. inmostofthe and highersocialvulnerability wo versions oftheRRIR,before and T T he highest risk valuesarehe highestrisk common he research wasdevoted to asocial T he region, especially Fig. 6. Regional Risk Index of Russia in 2010 in Russia of Index Risk Regional 6. Fig. T he indexis T he in areas that have larger floodareas than “M of consequencesnaturaldisasters. social tiesfor theprevention andelimination (e.g. highbudgetrevenues andwages) and economicpotential(e.g. healthservices), infrastructure this area have thenecessary (S developed copingcapacities. Large cities vulnerability, which is associated with well- alsohaveflooding; they ratherlow valuesof populations andthearea islessprone to foothills andmountainousarea have lower mighthaveterritories a higher index. flow. ofwaterto and highvelocity highintensity of hydrological events intheregion isrelated region.the Krasnodar coastof ofthesouthern districts and urban 0.05) are located in highly developed areas T (Fig.the KubanRiver 8). in coastalmunicipalities along themouthof index of themethodshows thehighestrisk areas are shown on Fig. 7. Further approbation P he groups withthelowest index(0.02to otential flooding and observed flooding otential floodingandobserved ochi, Novorossiysk, Gelendzhik, ochi, Novorossiysk, Gelendzhik, iddle” index municipalities are located I f data on hazards were available, these T he potential damage T uapse) in T he Fig. 7. Potential and maximum observed flooding zones on municipal level level municipal on zones flooding observed maximum and 7.Fig. Potential Fig. 8. Municipal Risk Index of Krasnodar region in 2010 in region Krasnodar of Index Risk Municipal 8. Fig. of Krasnodar region in 2010 in region Krasnodar of

111 SUSTAINABILITY 112 SUSTAINABILITY utilized for agriculture. For the rural plains, located in the delta of the Kuban, are mainly and have long durations. to flooding. Floods cancover large areas most exposedandthe vulnerable Areas withthehighestindex are boththe oftheC part the northern and thedeltaofKubanRiver between level ofvulnerability. the previous group and alsohave ahigh Government estimation Potential socialloses Fig. 9. Percentage of respondents by answers in settlements of Slavyansk municipal district, % district, municipal Slavyansk of settlements in by answers respondents of 9. Percentage Fig. Real lossforReal society (persons) (1000 €) (1000 €) T Exposed population V V V D V Annual socialrisk T D D Annual socialrisk T he area islocated otal potential damage otal potential damage ulnerable people ictims ictims ictims eaths eaths eaths aucasus. T he flatland areas, Table 6. Socialrisk calculations due to the high volume of private investment S low dueto thelow economicpotential. T ofsociallydisadvantagedgroups.proportion sensitivity, which is associated with a high as the area has one of the highest indices of is one of the most vulnerable ones district the consequencesoffloods. to adaptto complicatingtheability typical single level buildingsneartheriverare he coping capacity ofregionshe copingcapacity isgenerally ocio-economic system of ocio-economic Medium flooding Medium 10 500 11 190 16481 165,6 111,9 515,6 6922 5156 138 690 350 7 Catastrophic flooding T emryuk district, district, emryuk 10 908,40 264 000 272 785 2108,4 60575 35134 272,8 10,91 1757 8785 8800 176 T he Krymsk he Krymsk even higherthaneconomicdamage. death andhealthproblems canbesimilaror catastrophic. I ‘medium’ and 142millioneuro scenario in et al., 2013]isabout4.3millioneuro ina authors’the preliminary results [Zemtsov scenarios. E euro and272millioneuro –for catastrophic for a ‘middle’ isabout11.1million scenario accurately. more andevacuation protection, warning the mainreason for developing asystem of estimated ( P for floodingevents. citizens are unaware andare notprepared them (Fig.mean between 9). answers for several questionsandarithmetic compared withthepercentage ofpositive indexforvulnerability eachsettlementwas (0.59). For ofverification,thesocial purpose on opinionpolls, corresponds to theMRI (0.58), based municipal Slavyansk district T using the ‘field’ data. rate, withthehighestrisk municipal district potential socialdamagefor the Slavyansk and of was social an vulnerability evaluation thelaststage, During themainobjective assessment Field-based technique social of vulnerability approximately 0.97. (before exclusionand after of indicators) is C the degree ofeconomy diversification. infrastructure, intended to increasein port the methodology ofthe assessments ondifferent scalelevels. I can be used for and risk vulnerability the discussed methodwith data collection, D known maximum andminimumindicators known C he social vulnerabilityindex for the otential socialdamagewasfinancially orrelation between two integralorrelation two between indices onclusion espite of all the difficulties connected T conomic damageaccording to able 6). n ourcase, sociallossesfrom T he total social damage WRI wasbasedon M ost of the T his is f (like theHumanD (like density (including density andwiththehighestpopulation territories) flooding hazards (mountainandpermafrost values arefound typically inregions withhigh chosen for eachlevel separately. (maximum and minimum value) were For instance, indicators for normalization limitations.but withanumberofknown integral indicesatdifferent levels ispossible, the between instrument. Acomparison it couldbecomeamuchmore useful intraregional level. of highdifference of naturalhazards on interpreted because asadirectpositive fact low exposure index,whichcannotbe very M risks. socio-economic existing problem areas of naturaland interms for regionalimportant politics. indexofRussia(RRIR)assessment)are Risk T influence ofeachindicator onthefinalindex. not be highly changed because of the low advantage oftheintegral will indices;they But thepresence ofmany indicators isan which canchangegreatly oneyear. during contrast to socialandeconomicindicators, of infrastructureare quite stableintime results for previous periods. and itisnotpossibleto forecast orusethe were dedicated for assessmentin2010, risk I is debatable. level for reasons, comparison used onevery on different scalelevel. indicators may have adifferent meaning and P only low for M therichest economic development. because of low valueof is notsurprising withothercountries, which in comparison subindex highrates ofthesusceptibility very M districts). S t is also important to mention that ourwork t isalsoimportant he results of the first stage of the work (Regional he results (Regional ofthefirststagework outhern and Northern and Northern outhern etersburg,M oil-production Khanti- ost of the Russian regions have high and ost of the territories inRussiahaveost oftheterritories a Y amalo-Nenetsky regions. Fortunately,amalo-Nenetsky T he highest exposure C evelopment I entral, T he sameweights, C T aucasus federal he subindexis I t highlights the t highlights the T oscow, Saint- he indicators P rivolzhskiy, T he similar ansiysky ansiysky ndex),

113 SUSTAINABILITY 114 SUSTAINABILITY real problems. can smoothoutmany andhide disparities of theindexapproach isdangerous. I calculate real damages, andoverestimation the approach cannotbeappliedto region have beendetermined. However, inKrasnodar of citizens andtheirproperty of EMER priorities On thesecondstage, thepolicy and therepublic ofKabardino-Balkaria. Ossetia Dagestan, therepublic of Northern Krasnodar, Saratov regions, therepublic of T inmostofthecases.social vulnerability andhigher andestuaries in rivervalleys population densities, concentrations indexbecauseoftheirhigherhighest risk coastal andmountain regions have the of theintegral index. S risk M catastrophe inRussia. natural disaster event canbecomeasocial less populated regions. region) andoilminingand Kaluga

C common for theleastdeveloped Northern of preparedness. be interpreted as a result of a good system subindex,whichcan of thecopingcapacity low andmediumvaluesprevail inthelack most developed (M high rates of vulnerability,very except the most ofRussianregions have highand andsocialdiversification. A activity withlowwhich isconnected investment subindexishighforcapacity mostregions, statistics. approach isthedependenceonexisting

References 1. 2. he highest risk valuesarehe highestrisk commonfor aucasus regions. ost of the regions have alow value Baburin, Baburin, fulness and policy implications. Environmentalfulness andpolicy Hazards, N7(1), pp. 20–31. indicators atdifferentJ. andvulnerability (2007). Risk scales:applicability,Birkmann, use of C 9th international conference9th international on theM COM for improving theprotection aucasus intheC V ., Kasimov, N. and Goryachko, M.(2009).D ., Kasimov, N.andGoryachko, T he disadvantage of the T T oscow, SaintP he lackoftheadaptive he highest rates are onditions ofChangestheNature and S T hat iswhy any etersburg s aresult, outhern ndices editerranean coastalenvironment.editerranean S to assistant professor M commentsandconsultationsconstructive for provision ofadditionalmaterials, 11.G34.31.0007. excellence atRussianUniversities, no. the SpecialGrantfor establishing A. Zhidrov, social geography ofRussia:S. Bedratiy, ofeconomicandof thedepartment researcher D of E 37-00038 andby theRussianM S T Acknowledgement protection ofcitizens. toof lesserattention the oflocalauthorities especially, inRussia,because coping capacity to negatively and affect the vulnerability oflife’,‘value willcontinue whichinturn dueto low witheconomicrisks comparison values. S canbehighereven infinancial that socialrisk equivalent measures. in an estimationofeconomicandsocialrisks results was ofthework One oftheimportant hydrological phenomena. the populationwithregard to hazardous of knowledge identifying thelacking C approach ispreferred for assessment. risk for local communities, but thesecond determine the value of vulnerability techniques canquite accurately (component analysisofopinionpolls) (MRI)andinternalBoth external A. Snezhko, I. T A. Novozhilova, A. P his study was supported by the Russianhis study was supported cientific Fund undergrant no. 14- onducted fieldresearchonducted allowed ducation andS ocial risks canbeunderestimatedocial risks in evelopment oftheBlackS V . M . M imofeev, M . Fadeev. T ociety. P he authorsare grateful agritsky andstudentsagritsky akeeva, N. M akeeva, Our calculations show estich, F. Sleznov, cience through roceedings ofthe . Goryachko, ochi. oskvitina, ea C inistry n oast -

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t 16. w 18. v 17. 9. damm,M.(2010). 4. 8. 3. emeR 5. 6. 7. and management.M Guriev, S.(2009).M Natural hazards, N67(2),pp. 193–211. & elle, natural hazards—the challengeofintegration. NaturalHazards, N58(2),pp. 609–619. Gladkevich, G,Frolova,Gladkevich, N.and Flooding in Russia. the RussianFederation. M eral compensationfundin2011thefieldofwater of relations thesubjects between journal of policy analysisandmanagement,n21(2),pp. 253–270. ofpolicy journal technological hazards of emergencies andrisks in theRussian Federation. URL: http://www.gks.ru/dbscripts/munst/munst.htm Russian Federal (2012).Databaseofmunicipalities. (inRussian) Sate statisticalservice. System S tive assessment.NaturalHazards &Earth Birkmann, J., C Birkmann, Approach for Germany. Graduate Research S Health ofP risk analysis:current approachesrisk andfuture challenges. NaturalHazards, N1–7. Fuchs, J. andGlade, S.,Birkmann, A Fuchs, C.,andM S.,Kuhlicke estimates throughout N27(1),pp. anduncertainty, ofrisk theworld. 5–76. Journal p. (inRussian). sign. I aratunin, A.(2008).Floods intheRussianFederation. etrova, E.(2006). iscusi, ccident. M rozek, J. R.and ofFinance.inistry (2011).C iagkov,M S.(1995).Geography ofnaturalrisk. ntwicklung H (2011).BundnisEntwicklung Report. Risk orld COM. (2007). nformation. C T . 2013.Framing vulnerability, andsocietalresponses: framework. risk theMOVE W . K., Aldy,. K., J. E . (2003). ersons, P oscow. (inRussian). ardona, O T V V aylor, L.O T yths ofE I ulnerability of Russian regions to natural risk: experience ofquantita- ofRussianregions experience ulnerability to naturalrisk: ., Komedchikov, N.and artography. 696p. (inRussian). n he M roperty ofP roperty apping S oscow. (inRussian). T he Resources and quality of surface waters: prognosis evaluation, of he surface Resources and quality . D ethod for D oscow. (inRussian). ., C conomics. M . (2002). eyer, alculation of the distribution ofsubventionsalculation ofthedistribution from thefed- T ocial-E arreno, A.H.,P M.L.,Barbat, erskiy, P T ntities as a Result ofShipping eople andEntitiesasaResult T he value of a statistical life: a critical review of market he valueofastatisticallife: review ofmarket acritical V . (2012). . (2011).E hat determines thevalueoflife?What determines Ameta-analysis. cological etermining oftheDamagethatC etermining . (2011).C oscow: AlpinaBusinessBooks. (inRussian). oscow: V T ulnerability assessmentinnaturalhazardulnerability and rokhina, N.(E rokhina, ditorial forditorial to thespecialissue:vulnerability eries vol.eries 3.UN-EHS.Bonn. V omplex M ulnerability to Flooding.ulnerability ASub-National oscow. MSU ilft. Bonn. ilft. ciences, N6(6). Y IIVH. 432 FSUERosN ekaterinburg: d.). (2010).A ultifactorial Risk A Risk ultifactorial elling, M.,S . 224p. (inRussian). tlas ofnaturaland an A chneiderbauer, S. M ffect Life and ssessment of W oscow. D aterworks aterworks e -

115 SUSTAINABILITY 116 SUSTAINABILITY 20. 19. State University, establishedundertheRussian M environment oneconomy, development, etc. offorestry cycles in C Zemtsov, I.and S.,Krylenko, Regional S ing for Russiancoastalregions. I Zemtsov, S.,Kidyaeva, brolyubov, S.A(E S ea andA oastal Areas oftheA zov S cience A ea. M d.). ssociation. T oscow: P oscow: Stepan P. Zemtsov studiedeconomicgeography atthe Klaus P. Klaus Koltermann studiedO Vyacheslav L. Baburin he Environmental inthecoastalzone andsocialrisks oftheBlack V and innovation processes systems. interritorial assessment,regional damageandvulnerability development risk, andnature,of scientificinterests: society between interaction of NationalE applied economicresearch attheRussianP University. Nowadays heisaseniorresearcher intheI in 2009attheFaculty ofGeography, L graduating in2010.P Faculty ofGeography, L D A Since 2010heistheL of theI climate system. I Since 1991hisresearch was focused ontheocean’s role inthe lectured atHamburg onP University the E obtained Geophysics atHamburg University, graduating in1968.He P State University, in1976.Heisnow theHeadofdepartment, E impact on society of time zones on society reduction, influence of mountain impact development, assessmentofdamagefrom naturaldisasters, environment: effects ofclimate changeonsocio-economic Russian researchers and society between ofinteraction in Russiansocialandeconomicsystem. Heisamongtheleading economic geography, examininginnovation cycles particularly tocontribution thein understanding ofdynamic aspects . andFadeev, M.(2013).S quation ofState ofS conomic andS rofessor, D aboratory attheFacultyssessment Laboratory ofGeography, M epartment ofeconomicandsocialgeography ofRussiaatthe epartment zov-Black S I WOCE Y umina, N.(2012).S ntergovernmental O ublishing Houseof n ERSAconference papers(No. ersa13p1271).E Dr. rer.nat. degree from nternational P nternational . S conomy andP ea C c. inGeography (2002).Hemadeasignificant ocial Geography ofRussia,L n 2006–2010hewasleadingthe oast intheKrasnodar. I h. Dineconomicgeography wasreceived eawater. From 1987 to 1991 –Director of ega-grant programme.ega-grant ocio-economic A ocio-economic ocio-economic risk assessmentofflood- risk ocio-economic omonosov M eading S roject O graduated from theD T ublic A ceanographic C riumph. (inRussian). riumph. ceanography, M Hamburg ffice attheIOS, dministration (M cientist of the Natural Risk cientist oftheNaturalRisk omonosov M olar O oscow State University, ssessment ofFlood Risk P K. n Koltermann niversity in 1988. University ommission, UNESCO residential A omonosov M ceanography, the eteorology and T sunami Group epartment of epartment W oscow). Field oscow State ormley, UK. nstitute of cademy uropean oscow oscow ., D He o . - Vladimir Yu.Litvinov studiedH N. Krylenko Inna Natalia M. Yumina studiedH hydrological optimization. network forecasting ofriverrunoff, naturalhazards, water safety, and M asaresearcherNow atthesameH sheisworking hazards, water safety, GISandremote sensing. field ofherscientificinterests: hydrological modelling, natural asaseniorresearcher atthesameH working the Faculty of Geography, graduating in2005.P Faculty ofGeography, L Geography, L to processes ofsocialdevelopment ofRussianregions andcites and socialgeography ofRussia.H State University, Faculty ofGeography, ofeconomic department in 2004.P of Geography, L ain fieldoftheresearches: hydrological accounts and h. DinH omonosov M omonosov M ydrology wasreceived in2007attheFaculty of h. DinH is studentoftheL omonosov M L oscow State University. Now sheis omonosov ydrology atH oscow State University, graduating ydrology wasreceived in2009at ydrology atH is scientificinterests are related M oscow State University, oscow ydrology D omonosov M ydrology D ydrology D State ydrology D ept., Faculty University. ept. M oscow ept., ept. ain

117 SUSTAINABILITY 118 News and Reviews National I sustainable development ofterritories. C devoted to geographic problems ofthe are heldannually. A Geographical P and theS A T T greatly to the organization of the meeting. itsmemberH.Aliyev,after contributed and anthropogenic on the impacts R.M. Geographical P State (MSU). University geographers from M.V by a team of over the last half-century in theregion, whichhasbeen conducted up theresults ofcomprehensive research the C discussed an integrated electronic atlas of member ofRASS.AD of theC ecosystems, and integrated monitoring anthropogenicmodern on the impacts environmental situation, climatic changes, S the C ofresearch to in thehistory maps pertaining Joint Joint ( Geography, ANAS)presented ageodynamic andA .A FeyzullaevKadyrov I ( development inthenearest decades. F.A. economic data and forecast for the regional socio- the mapscontainup-to-date conditions, geomorphology, andlandscape; On at Development Issues nstitute ofGeography oftheA A he first presenter was member of he meetingincludedseven sessions. ea ecosystem” analyzed thecurrent aspian S cademy ofS ssociation ofA zerbaijan) hosted ameetingoftheXVII aspian S aspian S

S S the amedov; his report hisreport amedov; “Climate change eptember 16-20, 2014, Baku cientific A aspian S cademy of S cientific C ea region andways to achieve ea region, hydrometeorological ea. ciences (RAS).Suchmeetings roblems oftheI Baku of cademies ofS roblems oftheRussian C T ea region. C T he presentation summed ouncil on Fundamental he meeting in Baku was he meetinginBaku ouncil onFundamental ciences ( . L Sustainable T omonosov M he atlasconsistsof obrolyubov etal. Meeting ciences (IAAS) ANAS) named orresponding nternational nternational nstitute of

zerbaijan of C oscow aspian ANAS T he Territories of T S model of the hydrocarbon potential for the V west coast of the ecological features ofgeosystems ofthe Geography, ANAS)analyzed landscapeand modernization intheC modernization population structure andprospectsof Safronova (MSU ) presented “ of theC space stationsfor ofoilpollution monitoring for feasibility oftheuseinternational Geography, RAS) presented strong evidence mapping. D results ofdetailedlandscape-geochemical Glezer (I of thefoothill regions ofA A S River. transformation oftheannualflow ofthe Kura about the natural and anthropogenicspoke S waterand long-term flow into theC basin anddiscussedinter-annual variability hydrological research in the “summarized theresults oflong-term V of Geography, RAS) “Factors that affect the etal. by ( I N.I.Koronkevich A report a globalsocialandenvironmental problem.” presentation algae− “Blooming blue-green RAS) discussedtheC of SpatialP A.I Chistobaev etal. (Research I the C inthedevelopment ofterritories, using lakes RAS) discussedtherole oflarge andsmall outh C . he report by corresponding memberhe report ea. F.A. I efihanly ( olga River inflowolga River into theC zerbaijan) analyzed territorial planning A . Rumyantsev ( ANAS aspian S A.V

aspian basin. nstitute of Geography, RAS) and aspian S

. I .K. E.K. zmaylova (I mamov (Baku S tatemamovUniversity) (Baku C .V lanning “ENK .K., Republic of Republic ompany R.I.S.K., ea region asanexample. . D Alizade et al. (I ea region. M esinov etal. (I I nstitute of L aspian S C nstitute of aspian aucasus region.”

O ,” Russia)and ea region inhis zerbaijan. O ember ofRAS T S he territorial he territorial ea and the V aspian S nstitute of Limnology, nstitute of olga River imnology, nstitute nstitute aspian S.G. ea .B. V . 119 News and Reviews 120 News and Reviews of S of etal.member ofRASA.Chibilev (I development ofBelarus. 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Belanovsky (I E.A Belanovsky nstitute for theH Y u.P T . Badenkov (I . Badenkov he dynamics of the nstitute for Natural A T hus, the report hus, thereport strakhan State strakhan orresponding V .F. L cademy of nstitute of C aucasian istory of istory cademy nstitute nstitute oginov V V .A .S B.A. Krasnoyarova (I and theA slopeoftheGreater C north-eastern to the field trips for themeetingparticipants T geographic ofvarious dimensions.territories well as sustainabledevelopment of E problems related to theC andsocio-geographic economico-, physico-, O Environmental P were discussedby conditions ( transboundary development ofmountainregions in Branch [SB]RAS).Features ofsustainable ( L.A Bezrukov, L.MKorytny, and development ofSiberia” waspresented by Far sustainable development oftheRussian ofenvironmental foraspects policy Far aboutsome EastBranch,RAS)talked for S member of R its sustainabledevelopment. C region and Ural basinasatransboundary V he ea. verall, themeetingcovered awiderangeof .B. S East. “Geographic vectors of sustainable W A ochava I ater and EnvironmentalP zerbaijanian geographers organized zerbaijanian coastoftheC nstitute of Geography, Siberian AS roblems, SBRAS). B. Sergei .A. Dobrolyubov, .A. Sergei nstitute for A Y . u.I. V Valerian A.Snytko oronov ( aspian region, as Altai case study) V inokurov and orresponding V .M P W ater and roblems, I aucasus nstitute urasian lyusnin aspian may beused. P 2. P arematerials accepted underthedecisionof theE published Earlier to thescopeofJournal,reviews (only articles. solicited) andbrief 1. A sustainable development. environment andhealth;education for andbiodiversity; problems; nature conservation informatics andenvironmental mapping;oilandgasexplorationenvironmental sustainable regional development; appliedgeographical andenvironmental studies; geo- global andregional environmental andclimate change;environmental regional planning; management; environment and natural resources; human(economic andsocial)geography; environmental science;fundamentals ofsustainabledevelopment; environmental there ofthejournal areAmong themainthematicsections basicsofgeography and environmental science. welcome, aswellare asthosedealingwithfieldstudiesinthe sphere particularly of geography etc. P education for sustainable development, GIStechnology, cartography, socialandpolitical geographers, ecologists, naturalresource specialistsinenvironmental use, conservation, changing world. 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