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DEMOGRAPHIC REPORT

A Community Profile of Yellowhead County October 2019 Demographic Report Measurement Summary Issue Summary Low Income Immigration 38 Labor andGender Industry Employment 32 Occupation 30 Education 28 Income Cohorts Income Shelter Costs Housing Tenure Housing 18 Family Composition Households 14 Location 12 Age Analysis Population 8 Purpose 6 Introduction 4 34

Contents

41 40 39 36 26 24 23 20 17 11

Demographic Report Introduction

p. 4 circumstances. County residents and theirunique socialand economic to develop astronger understanding of Yellowhead Planning and Development inorder Department This report was prepared by the Yellowhead County collection and analysis. economic conditionswould require additionaldata a complete understanding ofregional socialand and population centers withintheCounty, achieving Edson and Hinton. Given their statusasmajorservice Yellowhead County encompasses thetwo townsof and thegates ofJasper National Park, Covering awidegeographical area between the 1996 to2016. through Statistics community profiles from Yellowhead County’s municipal boundaries asobtained This report exclusively examines the population of communities in North America,communities inNorth to issues facedby many rural Yellowhead County are similar Given thattheissues affecting accepted indicatormetrics. be describedusingcommonly interpretive error. Issues will data presents thepossibilityof Connecting cross-categorical using Stats Canada definitions. define the specific datacategory Where thereport will necessary context. the provided information into utilizes thisresearch toplace existing research. This report they can becontextualized by Recommendations Definitions Context p. 5 p. Demographic Report IDENTIFY UNKNOWN PROBLEMS AND NEW SOLUTIONS Purpose 1.

Demographic data can identify previously unknown issues and new, organically emerging successes.

Local knowledge is often general and regards the geography of a place as one whole. This data provides greater insight into the County population by identifying the nature and extent of social and economic challenges to Yellowhead County residents.

Additional detail can then illuminate new opportunities while expanding upon potential threats and weaknesses.

EVALUATE THE EFFECTIVENESS OF FUTURE COUNTY PROJECTS Purpose 2. The Municipal Development Plan lays out Yellowhead County’s future needs, wants, goals and methods to attain them. Demographic data can be used to evaluate the results of potential County interventions.

As an example, the diversification of the economy is one of Yellowhead County’s Guiding Principles (MDP 3.4.8). The success of various economic programs can then be measured using employment, income, or production across industries, across occupations, or across the tax base. Targets may then be identified and positions re-evaluated on a 5 year basis.

p. 6 THIS REPORTCREATESACOMMUNITYPROFILEOFYELLOWHEADCOUNTYBY Population distribution within Population by income, gender The change inpopulation of Housing type, cost,age and immigration and industry and family composition. household composition. Purpose 3. Education, occupation, MEASURING CHANGEINKEYDEMOGRAPHICINDICATORS. employment change. distinct age cohorts. Yellowhead County.

5 4 3 2 1 communities and Yellowhead County. similarities between other rural organizations depends onidentifying government and intergovernmental Using recommendations from research, economic and environmental domains. Yellowhead County across it’s social, depends onaclear characterization of The applicability ofthisevidence economic and policy development. Considerable literature existsonrural PLACE YELLOWHEADCOUNTYIN ITS RURALCONTEXT Categories Data 5 p. 7 p. Demographic Report Population

Yellowhead County, Edson and Hinton Population Change (1991 to 2016)

Yellowhead County Edson Hinton

12,500

10,990 10,470 10,092 9,875 10,030 10,000 8,692 9,961 9,882 9,738 9,640

POPULATION 9,046 9,045 8,475 8,414 7,500 8,098 7,585 7,323 7,399

5,000 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Analysis of Population Change

Yellowhead County has experienced stable population growth since 2001, with an annual 0.57% percentage growth rate of 0.57%. Edson and Annual Growth Hinton have experienced less consistent growth with the Edson population declining by 0.14% from 2011 to 2016.

This population increase is largely the result of in-migration - adding more than 600 new residents. Population is the sum of births minus deaths plus net migration, and it signifies the total market size possible in the area. This is an important metric for developers to measure the economic health and investment attraction of an area. Businesses also use this as a metric for market size when evaluating startup, expansion or relocation decisions.

The closer a rural community is to a city, the higher its rate of population growth (Reimer & Bollman, 2018). Rural communities less than 1 hour outside of a large city, and those around lakes and mountains are generally growing. Communities dependent on the production of commodities (including agriculture, forestry, fishing, and mining) have experienced declining populations (Alasia et al. 2008). p. 8 p. 9

Yellowhead County Change of Age Cohorts (1996 to 2016)

0-19 20-44 45-64 65+

4000 3320 3165 3565 3530 2985 3005 2805 3000 3065 3095 2735 2900 2730 2745 2175 2655 2000 1710

POPULATION 1445 1250 1075 765 1000

0 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

An Aging Population

The recent stabilization of the median age is the result of an increase in 20-44 year olds and a corresponding increase in children 0-19. A drop in 45-64 year olds likely due to emigration is also a contributing factor. The trend of aging across OECD economies is more apparent in rural regions and is forecast to continue. The capacity for rural communities to provide an attractive living situation and integrate newly arrived migrants will shape their ability to address the challenge of aging and shrinking populations (OECD Rural Policy 3.0).

Yellowhead County Change of Median Age (2001 to 2016) MEDIAN AGE Median Age Canada

50 43.5 43 41.2 39 40 41.2 Yellowhead County (43) is 36.7 significantly older than Edson 30 (35.9), Hinton (37.2), Alberta (36.7) and Canada (41.2). This 20 aging has slowed recently, but Median Age will likely increase as the large 10 45-64 population enters the oldest age cohort in the next 15 0 years. 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Demographic Report Demographic Yellowhead County 1996 Population Pyramid

Males Females

85+ -15 20 80-84 -35 35 75-79 -80 65 70-74 -120 90 65-69 -185 120 60-64 -250 170 55-59 -280 205 50-54 -335 265 45-49 -345 325 40-44 -465 415 Ages 35-39 -445 430 30-34 -345 360 25-29 -235 245 20-24 -220 160 15-19 -445 355 10-14 -445 440 5-9 -430 385 0-4 -285 310

-600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600

Yellowhead County 2016 Population Pyramid

Males Females

85+ -50 65 80-84 -110 95 75-79 -165 120 70-74 -265 200 65-69 -320 315 60-64 -455 390 55-59 -515 475 50-54 -500 470 45-49 -365 365 40-44 -345 320 Ages 35-39 -350 330 30-34 -335 345 25-29 -240 255 20-24 -240LOGO 2018 240 15-19 -350 305 10-14 -385 ANDUNDAE SSIMAXIM RE NOSSIM 330 5-9 -425 330 0-4 -305 305

-600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600

The boomer bubble moving upwards from the 40-44 cohort to the 60-64 cohort is evident in the population pyramids. In 20 years the over-70 population may be as large as the current population between 30 to 45. a challengeinregards toschoolviabilityinthe working agegroup (15-64). Itmay alsopresent (65+), dependentchildren (0-14), dividedby the defined astheamountofdependentseniors down thegrowth oftheDependencyRatio, to 2750in2016. Thishashadtheeffect ofslowing (15-19) intheCounty hasshrunkfrom 3095in1996 The amountofchildren (0-14)and young adults CHILDREN education andaccess toaffordable child-care. increasing thelabourparticipation ofwomen via working populationincludeimmigration and 1996 to 58in2016. of 49. In 2010, North America hadaDependencyRatio businesses. patterns influence housingmarkets and and socialcosts, whilechangingconsumption This results inincreased healthcare, education compared toasmallertaxpaying population. growth duetoalargetaxcollecting population High dependencyratios decrease economic challenge inYellowhead County. in thenext 5-10years, presenting alabourforce olds. They can be expected toleave the work force cohort inthisagegroup iscurrently 55-59year 5495 in1996to65352016. However, thelargest The working agegroup (15-64)hasincreased from LABOUR FORCE hamlets. Yellowhead Countywent from55in Age Analysis Solutions to increase the p. 11 Demographic Report Location

Yellowhead County Change of Population Distribution (1991 to 2016)

Non- Hamlets

12500 9455 8799 8212 8062 8082 10000 7144

7500

5000

1880 1813 1948 1671 2500 1548 1535

0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Where are people moving?

The population of residents living in the 8 1.6% NON-HAMLET hamlets is dropping. The population growth GROWTH RATE that is occurring is entirely located outside of the hamlet boundaries. Given the increasing -0.04% HAMLET population of the oldest age cohort and a pause in GROWTH RATE the growth of 45-64 year olds, this growth is likely an influx of retirees.

Median age was rising due to the migration of retirees looking for country residential property outside of the hamlets. Combined with a trend of residents leaving the hamlets, this reduced the number of children in the County. This presents a considerable challenge from a number of areas. New country residential residents may demand access to goods and services in the hamlets, while the businesses there may not be financially viable due to their decreasing local market base.

Such a divide may lead to competition for resources between growing country residential residents and declining hamlet populations. Generally, improving rural infrastructure (roads, Internet, recreation, waste management) does not in itself cause increased rural development. It can instead be used to bolster rural development that is already occurring (Reimer & Bollman, 2018). p. 12 p. 13

East Hamlets Population Change (1991 to 2016)

Niton Junction Peers Wildwood Evansburg

1000

750 879 880 795 760 723 740

500

301 279 277 294 273

250 114 119 120 113119 108 80 85 85 98 26 38

0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

West Hamlets Population Change (1991 to 2016)

Robb Marlboro Brule

250

196 200 183 186 200 174 171 170 161 162 162 187 150 175 160 156

100 76

87 86 90 50 80 31 64 56 36 40 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

As noted by the research, communities closer to metropolitan areas are experiencing slower population decline than those located farther. Evansburg is the only hamlet where the population has grown since 1996. This is likely due to its proximity to the Metropolitan Region. Evansburg could therefore represent a strategic target for continued investment. Demographic Report Demographic Households

Change in Average Household Size (1996-2016) HOUSEHOLD SIZE 3

2.9 Below the Alberta average 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.5 2 Average household size in Yellowhead County has decreased to below the Alberta average (2.6). Only recently has this decline slowed down. This is due

1 to a much smaller increase in the proportions of

Average Household Size Household Average single and 2 person households between 2011 and 2016.

0 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Change in Amount of Households (1996-2016) TOTAL HOUSEHOLDS 5000 New households are older households 4000 4310 4080 The total number of households has increased 3800 3610 3000 3265 by 230 since 2011. 520 new residents in 230 new households creates an average household size 2000 of 2.26 since 2011. This supports the idea that Total Households Total Yellowhead County is growing mostly through 1000 an influx of retired couples and to a lesser extent

0 young families. 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Date of Construction of Private Dwellings CONSTRUCTION 2000 1660 Steady growth 1405 1500 1265 The amount of housing units constructed every twenty years has increased. However, as the 1000 average household size has decreased, the Dwellings number of households needing housing units 400 500 has increased. This increased demand is met by a supply which is only in line with population 0 1960 or before 1961 to 1980 1981 to 2000 2000 to 2020 growth, which may lead to higher housing costs.

Date of Construction Yearly development permit reports can be used to monitor new housing supply.

p. 14 essential toincreasing theamount ofpeople thatwant tocall Yellowhead County home. simple, cost-effective and timely construction of new, housing in-demand unitsis Continually reviewing our development regulations toensure thatthey allowfor the of thecommunity changes. Asdoesthe demand for various forms ofhousing. As children grow up and move away orretired couples sell theirhomes, thedemographic different. 65%ofhouseholds in Yellowhead County nowhavetwo either one or residents. households which had2orlesswas essentially 50/50.In2016thisratio isconsiderably Percentage Change in Household Size (1996-2016) 100% 25% 50% 75% 0% In 1996thebalance between households which had3ormore people and Single andtwopersonhouseholdsnowmakeupthe 18.38% 32.62% 15.16% 33.84% 1996 4+ Person 19.11% 37.53% 15.37% 28.25% 2001 3 Person majority ofYellowheadCounty. 21.05% 38.03% 15.39% 25.53% 2006 2 Person 22.30% 40.93% 13.97% 22.92% 2011 Single Person 22.85% 41.18% 12.88% 23.09% 2016 p. 15 Demographic Report 1996 2016

$140,032 median income

Couple with Children at Home 40% 27%

$91,538 median income 27% 35% No Children at Home

$60,800 median income

Single Parent 5.3% 6.5%

$25,600 median income or $48,256 median income 27% 31% Non-Family Individual

The amount of couples with children at home has shrunk from 1440 to 1300, while the amount of couples with no children at home has grown from 965 to 1660. This is the result of less children being born and children growing up and leaving home. and 205in2016. Females madeup130ofthesehouseholdsin1996 parents grew from 190in1996to3102016. individuals were male. Theamountofsingle from 980in1996to14752016. 870ofthese The amountofnon-family individuals rose LONE ADULTS and multi-family units. smaller units, backyard suites, basementsuites There may behigherdemand for rental housing, away andlooktohigherquality rentals. about committing topurchasing ahomeright parents following jobsmay bemore apprehensive becomes urbanlife. Single individualsand give updriving, itislikely that theironlyoption healthcare servicesandretail. Astheyhave to country residential properties far away from Older couples may finditdifficulttomaintain retain theresidents already here. to grow ourpopulation, attract newresidents and County. This form may needtoadaptas we look the dominanthousingform inYellowhead Traditionally, singledetachedhousinghasbeen housing whichfamilies demandalsochanges. As family compositions changethetypesof HOUSING Family Composition p. 17 Demographic Report Housing

Dwelling Value in 2019 Dollars (1996-2016)

YHC Average Value YHC Median Value Alberta Average Value Alberta Median Value

$500,000 $467,305 $442,638 $443,164 $415,684 $400,000 $405,975 $388,085 $373,978 $358,267 $343,091

$300,000 $307,820

$218,724 $200,000 $188,841 $195,233 $172,102

$100,000

$0 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Housing Value

Dwellings in the County have followed the 1996-2016 provincial trend by increasing in value between 7.9% ANNUAL GROWTH 1996 and 2016. While average dwelling prices 2011-2016 did not increase as quickly in the County as in 1.8% ANNUAL GROWTH Alberta, the difference has decreased from over $50,000 in 2006 to $24,000 in 2016. The difference between median values is unchanged from 2011.

Average values are biased towards extremes. Tracking median value, which represents the figure which splits the distribution into two equal halves, provides a more accurate representation of actual housing prices in a location. In 2016 Yellowhead County’s housing stock was again below the Alberta median value, with the most common price for a home just under $374,000. As housing in Yellowhead County increasingly shifts towards more country residential properties, median dwelling value in the County has approached closer to Alberta median value.

Home values are increasing faster (+7.9%) than the construction of new units (+1.28%), thereby increasing the absolute amount of tax paid per residential property. As the Residential Mill Rate has remained consistently low for 10 years, tax payments from residential properties have increased only due to a rise in assessed value. p. 18 p. 19

Change in Amount of Single Detached and Moveable Homes

Single Detached Moveable Dwelling

4000 3270 3355 3035 2745 3000 2480

2000

750 780 810 1000 650 705

0 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Housing Forms

Single detached homes make up 79% of all housing units in Yellowhead County. Residential development is more costly for municipalities, generally providing $1 in taxes per every $1.25 provided in municipal services. Moveable dwellings make up 19% of the total housing units in the County, with apartments completing the remaining 2%. The annual percent growth rate of single detached home was 2.1% from 1996-2011, and 0.5% from 2011 to 2016.

Residential and Farmland Mill Rate (2012-2019) Taxation

5.00 When compared to its neighbors and 4.00 similar municipalities, Yellowhead Lac Ste. Anne County County provides incredibly competitive residential (3rd) and commercial/ 3.00 industrial tax rates (1st). This is due

Parkland County to consistently low rates which have 2.00 provided stability to residents. Taxes Greenview No. 16 are therefore unlikely to slow down 1.00 housing construction. Yellowhead County

0.00 2012 2014 2016 2018 Demographic Report Demographic Housing Tenure

Housing Tenure (1996-2016)

Owner Occupied Tenant Occupied

4000

3545 3610 3000 3175 3245 2900

2000

1000 700 555 540 360 440

0 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Owning and Renting

Owner occupied housing makes up 84% of 1996-2016 OWNER housing units in the County, while 16% of 1.1% ANNUAL GROWTH households rent. This ties Okotoks as the highest 1996-2016 RENTER proportion of owner occupied households in 3.4% ANNUAL GROWTH Alberta, where 72.4% of households own their home. Yellowhead County has a much higher ownership rate than Canada (67.8%).

The high rate of home ownership is likely correlated with the higher median age of County residents. Homeownership rates climb dramatically until age 40, grow slowly to age 65, and then stay constant. Rates generally decline after age 70 (Kendig, 1984). The faster annual growth of renting in Yellowhead County, specifically after 2011 (+5.3%), may be attributed to affordability concerns and an increase in non-permanent employment.

Households which spend 30% or more of their total household income on shelter expenses are defined as having a housing affordability problem. This represents a point at which financial strain is likely in regards to affording other necessities. Renting is generally less costly than owning and due to the higher upfront costs of entering the housing market, renting commonly sees lower housing affordability rates. p. 20 p. 21

Housing Affordability Rates (1996-2016)

Owner Housing Insecurity Rate Rental Housing Insecurity Rate Alberta Owner Housing Insecurity Rate Alberta Renter Housing Insecurity Rate

50.00% 42.59%

40.00% 33.57% 31.82% 27.03% 38.60% 30.00% 25.00% 36.00%

18.40% 20.00% 15.10%

10.00% 14.39% 12.88% 11.38% 10.24% 11.56% 0.00% 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Housing Affordability

The flexibility of renting allows the insecurity rate to change significantly in line with economic conditions and rental housing demand. If rent becomes too expensive, people move. Renting in Yellowhead County will likely be in manufactured or single detached homes. These forms being more expensive than apartments, the percent of the population that pays more than 30% of their income towards rental is greater than the Alberta rate. Despite rising housing costs and values, housing affordability has not been getting worse for home owners.

Proportions of Housing Tenure (1996-2016)

Tenant Occupied Owner Occupied OPPORTUNITY

100% 11% 12% 15% 13% 16% Adaptable Housing 75% Rental housing increases may represent 50% a population growth opportunity. More 89% 88% 85% 87% 84% rental friendly housing options may provide new residents with incentives 25% towards working in Yellowhead County. By not committing to ownership, new 0% 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 residents may account for industry volatility. Demographic Report Demographic 2016 Monthly Shelter Costs

$1341 $1126 Owner Average Costs Owner Median Costs

$1022 $1008 Renter Average Costs Renter Median Costs

Shelter Costs in Yellowhead County (1996-2016)

Owner (Average) Renter (Average) Owner (Median) Renter (Median)

$1,500 $1,341 $1,223 $1,126 $1,019 $1,022 $987 $941 $1,000 $890 $901 $882 $829 $1,008 $679 $848

$500

$0 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Shelter cost refers to the average monthly total of all shelter expenses paid by households that rent or own their dwelling. All figures have been adjusted for inflation and represent real shelter costs in 2019 dollars. mortgage payments, property taxes, municipal indicating ageneral increase inoneormore of increased dramatically between 2011and2016, between 1996and2016. Median costs have per year thathouseshave appreciated invalue 2.5% ayear. Thisnumberislessthanthe7.9% County hasbeenclimbingsteadily, growing at The average cost of owning ahomein Yellowhead OWNING for owners and$1340for renters. mediansheltercosts were $1300 moderately unaffordable housingmarket. 20 years, contributing toYellowhead County’s median householdincomes (1.8%)over thelast at 2.5%peryear outpaces theyearly growth of and 2016. Thegrowth ofmonthlyshelter costs increased for renters andowners between 2011 Despite theseincreases, housingaffordability COMPARISONS amount ofrenters hasalsoincreased. housing affordability increased for renters. The to 2016by 3.7%ayear. Despitethisincrease, since 1996. Median costs increased from 2011 and demand. Theyhave alsogrown 2.5%per year effects ofeconomic conditions onrental supply volatility. Thehave moved in response tothe Average rental costs have increased withmore RENTING services, orutilities. Shelter Costs p. 23 Demographic Report Income

Median Income in 2019 Dollars (1996-2016)

Household Female Male Alberta Household

$125,000

$100,310 $89,690 $100,000$85,304 $85,346 $81,435 $98,931 $92,688 $75,000 $64,258 $81,725 $57,188 $73,945 $49,946 $68,197 $50,000 $36,570 $34,427

$25,000 $28,861 $21,359 $21,250 $23,433 $0 2000 2005 2010 2015

MEDIAN INCOME On pace with Alberta

Adjusted for inflation, median household income has been growing steadily at an annual rate of 1.88%. This is much slower than the growth of housing value (+7.8%). With a median unit price of nearly $374,000 and a median household income of nearly $99,000, Yellowhead County’s Median Multiple of 3.78 indicates a Moderately Unaffordable housing market.

Yellowhead County’s Median Multiple of 3.78 indicates a Moderately Unaffordable housing market.

A median multiple of 3.00 is considered to be representative of a generally affordable housing market. For comparison, as of 2019 Fort McMurray is 2.2, Edmonton 3.6, 4.0 and Vancouver 12.6. There is growing evidence which places partial responsibility for unaffordability on highly regulated land use and development restrictions (Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey 2019). Identifying and changing municipal land use policies which limit housing development is of vital importance. p. 24 Population by Income Bracket (1996-2016) Bracket Income by Population 1000 2000 3000 4000 1995 0 pay. pay. has decreased ortheworkers inthosejobs have eitherleft the labour force or found jobs withhigher drop inthelowest bracket islargely areplacement effect. The amount ofjobs paying under$19,000 nearly 3700to2290workers. Given theriseinsecondlowest bracket, itcan beconcluded thatthe The largest change inincomebracket population isadecrease inthelowest incomebracket from Rising medianincomes due to adrop in the lowest bracket INCOME COHORT CHANGE the mostrapid decrease (-49.8%) isinthemalepopulation of the lowest incomebracket. earning lessthan 19.9K. The mostrapid isinthemalepopulation growth earning 100-149.9K,and of females inthe20-39.9K,40-59.9Kand 60-79.9Kincome brackets, and adrop inmalesand females inmedianThe growth household incomehasbeenlargely due toasteady increase inthepopulation The populationinthehighestincome cohorts hasremainedthe $150K+ 1415 3690 525 820 1997 $100-149.9K 1999 same from2011formalesandfemales. 1990 2001 3695 940 960 2003 $80-99.9K 2005 $1-19.9K 3310 1065 1640 925 2007 $60-79.9K 2009 $40-59.9K 2695 1180 1665 2011 680 895 2013 $20-39.9K 2015 2290 1195 1900 495 695 900 2017 p. 25 Demographic Report Income Cohorts

Income population distribution in Yellowhead County is more polarized than Alberta. There is a higher proportion of high earners, and a higher proportion of low earners.

Income Population Alberta Population by Income Bracket (2016) 01 02 These charts demonstrate the 5.9% proportion of various income groups within Yellowhead Itatiam ipsandunt Nequiamenis9.0% 25.5% County and Alberta. The incomes are reflective of Lore maiorum enihicitiur Ma net vel eos cusda8.1% nonsedipis the yearly pre-tax earnings maxim ut lis dolorem num, volupta tustem quamus of County residents in the faccustiur sam cusandam milit, consequia eribus 12.1% previous tax year. conseque cupta in con prae ipicaectio. Exceper atatem exped quat. Equas exceprae id eosapiendae si quati corro 21.9% 47.4% of Alberta workers made ima dicatem volupta siminvera estium iditem fugiti blaces 17.5% below $40,000 a year, while 50% numquos maximintiis sundit doloriae sit fugiaepra verspient. of Yellowhead County workers reiciaerspit as accusdam. Yellowhead County Population by Income Bracket (2016)made less than that amount. $150K+ $100-149.9K $80-99.9K $60-79.9K $40-59.9K Yellowhead County Population$20-39.9K by Income$1-19.9K Bracket (2016) 29.6% of Alberta workers earned between $40-60,000 5.9% while 25% of Yellowhead 5.9% 10.7% County residents earnings are 27.3% 10.7% 27.3% within this range.

8.3% 8.3% 24.9% of Yellowhead County workers earned over $80,000 compared to 23% of Alberta 10.7% 10.7% residents.

22.7% 22.7% 14.3% 14.3%

$150K+ $100-149.9K $80-99.9K $60-79.9K $40-59.9K $150K+ $100-149.9K$20-39.9K $80-99.9K$1-19.9K $60-79.9K $40-59.9K $20-39.9K $1-19.9K

The increased polarization of incomes influences the demand for the two dominant housing types in Yellowhead County. p. 26 Female Population by Income Bracket (1996-2016) Bracket Income by Population Female (1996-2016) Bracket Income by Population Male 1000 1500 2000 2500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Total Population by Income Bracket (1996-2016) Bracket Income by Population Total 100% 500 500 25% 50% 75% 1995 1995 0 0 0% $150K+ $150K+ 2125 1575 130 525 485 680 890 40 1997 1997 1415 3690 1996 525 820 $100-149.9K $100-149.9K 1999 1999 1310 1080 2001 2001 100 200 900 760 845 1990 3695 2001 940 960 2003 2003 $80-99.9K $80-99.9K 2005 2005 $1-19.9K $1-19.9K 1275 2030 245 400 655 750 765 180 410 865 1065 1640 3310 2006 2007 2007 $60-79.9K $60-79.9K 925 2009 2009 $40-59.9K $40-59.9K 1765 2011 2011 525 670 695 700 730 935 195 155 220 465 935 1180 1665 2695 2011 895 680 895 2013 2013 $20-39.9K $20-39.9K 2015 2015 2016 1195 1900 2290 495 900 695 900 1100 1500 190 190 345 620 435 505 560 570 710 790 805 2017 2017 occurring inworkers earning over $100K. by more than 71%, withmostofthisgrowth workers earning more than $60Khasgrown $20K hasshrunk by 38%. The population of The population ofworkers earning lessthan Of Labour Force Participants INCOME CHANGES $40-60K. part-time, or two workers who earn between income earner who withapartner works a lonemalehigher incomeearner, ahigh income islikely tobecomprised ofeither Yellowhead County’s $99Kmedian household income brackets are female. female. 17%ofworkers inthetwo highest who earned between $60-80K, 38%are bracket than males. Ofthe 14.3%ofworkers are 50more females inthe$40-60Kincome $20,000 to$40,000,58%are female. There are female. Ofthosewho earned between workers who earned under$20K ayear, 65% The median female incomeis$28,861.Ofthe Yellowhead County is$64,258. than $20K. The median incomefor malesin between $100-150Kasmalesearning less There are nearly asmany malesearning the various isvery incomecohorts even. The distribution ofmaleworkers between increases may alsoberesponsible. year, adjustedfor inflation. Minimum wage growing in Yellowhead County at1.88%per of $30,258in2019.Real incomehasbeen $20,000 dollars in1996istheequivalent These changes are due partially toinflation. $150K+ $100-149.9K $80-99.9K $60-79.9K $40-59.9K $20-39.9K $1-19.9K p. 27 Demographic Report Education

This variable refers to the highest level of education that the population between the ages of 24 and 65 has successfully completed.

Educational Attainment Alberta Highest Level of Schooling (2016) No Diploma High School Post Secondary Certificate or Diploma College While median incomes Bachelors Degree Masters Degree or Doctorate are relatively comparable to Alberta, educational

8.6% 11.2% attainment is not. 63% of Albertans have some post secondary education compared 20.5% to 47% from Yellowhead 26.0% County.

More than 1 out of 5 Yellowhead County residents between age 26.0% 7.7% 24 and 65 does not have a high school diploma. This amounts to 1280 people.

Yellowhead County Highest Level of Schooling (2016) Of the 1890 people with a high school diploma, 1040 have No Diploma High School Post Secondary Certificate or Diploma College some post secondary training Bachelors Degree Masters Degree or Doctorate such as a certificate. 1265 have a non-university degree or 5.9% diploma. 355 residents have a 21.4% Bachelors degree.

21.2% 5.9% of Yellowhead County has a Bachelors degree compared to the 20.5% of Albertans who hold a Bachelors degree.

17.4% 31.6%

Educational attainment is increasing rapidly in Alberta and Canada, with the proportion of the population with some post secondary education moving from 56% and 57% in 2004 to 63% and 65% in 2014. The proportion p. 28 of Yellowhead County Residents with some post secondary has also increased from 45.7% to 46.9%. p. 29

Yellowhead County Educational Attainment (2006-2016)

2006 2011 2016 1890 2000

1500 1280 1265 1040 1000 1655 1390 1250 1230 500 355 145 1340 1690 1075 1190 170320 105 0 120 No Diploma High School Post College Bachelors Masters Secondary Degree Degree or Certificate or Doctorate Diploma

Education in Rural Canada

The statistics are encouraging for education HIGH SCHOOL DIPLOMA in Yellowhead County despite the unfavorable 1.2% ANNUAL GROWTH comparison with Alberta at large. The population BACHELOR DEGREE of residents with a high-school diploma has 7.6% ANNUAL GROWTH increased by 14% since 2011, compared to 5% of population growth since 2011. This indicates that more residents are getting a high school diploma.

It is not the case that new residents who move to the county tend to already have a diploma. The population of Yellowhead County has generally become more highly educated from 2006 to 2016. Access to education has generally reduced incidences of rural poverty in Canada. With a standardized curriculum, individuals who cannot find work in their home community have skills which allow them to find compatible employment elsewhere. This has also had the effect of ‘educating’ individuals to leave their rural hometowns (Reimer and Bollman, 2018). Access to standardized training has accelerated the filling of labour gaps in rural communities, but it has also not informed students about possible local job prospects (Redden, 2005). Demographic Report Demographic Education

This variable refers to the predominant area of learning or training of a person’s highest completed postsecondary certificate, diploma or degree, for those over 15 years old.

Post Secondary Major Fields of Study (2016)

Social Sciences and Law Business, Management and Administration Of the 2805 residents of Engineering and Technology Agriculture, Natural Resources Health Yellowhead County with some Personal, Protective and Transportation post secondary education, the major field of study is in 165 Engineering and Technology, 360 making up nearly half of all 480 post secondary education. 445 Within this field, 600 residents have some post secondary 175 training in Mechanics and Repair. 1435 Business, Management and Administration training is the second largest post Studies in Engineering and Technology (2016) secondary field of study, and management occupations were Mechanic and Repair Construction Precision Production the fastest growing in the 20 Engineering Technologies Engineering year occupational history of the County. 105 While many residents also 195 studied healthcare, the amount of healthcare jobs in the County 600 has increased slightly, but this job data is regionally limited 245 and ignores the new Edson Healthcare Centre.

270

Education, occupation and industrial flows are a regional phenomenon. More information is needed to understand the labour relationships between Yellowhead County, Edson and Hinton residents. p. 30 jobs to2355workers. Natural Resources and Agricultural positionshave decreased by 535people, ornearly 50%. 1070 jobs. The occupations classes holding steady orfallingemployed 2970residents in1996,dropping by 615 In 1996,thegrowing occupations employed atotal of1765people, increasing to2835residents, for anetgain of Government occupation class, not inNatural Resources and Agriculture. main activities intheirjob. Alawyer working inaoilcompany would beintheEducation, Law Community and This identifies the work performed by persons aged 15 years and over asdetermined by thedescription ofthe Other Occupation Classes(1996-2016) Occupation Other 1000 1250 Growing Occupation Classes (1996-2016) 1000 1500 2000 250 500 750 500 1995 1995 0 0 Trades, Transport andEquipment Transport Trades, Sales and Services Sales 1150 1255 140 390 850 130 355 660 50 95 1997 1997 Natural and Applied Sciences andApplied Natural 1999 1999 Education, Law, Community and Government andGovernment Community Law, Education, 2001 1605 2001 885 905 185 300 225 475 725 70 95 Natural Resources andAgriculture Resources Natural 2003 2003 Management 2005 2005 Occupation Occupation 1115 165 310 955 1690 65 710 175 205 380 2007 2007 Art. Culture, Recreation Culture, Art. 2009 Business, Finance andAdministration Finance Business, 2009 Manufacturing andUtilities Manufacturing 2011 120 360 560 800 65 1975 2011 700 935 180 370 Health 2013 2013 2015 2015 165 380 580 890 1785 785 820 195 330 2017 2017 p. 31 Demographic Report Employment

Unemployment Rate (1996-2016)

Yellowhead County Alberta

12.5% 11.0%

10.0%

7.3% 7.5% 6.3% 8.7% 7.8% 5.0% 4.9% 7.1% 7.0% 5.0% 6.4% 5.7% 5.0% 4.2% 2.5%

0.0% 2000 2005 2010 2015

Changing Occupations and Industry

The unemployment rate is defined as the number of unemployed workers and people searching for a paid job, expressed as a percentage of the labour force. Yellowhead County unemployment diverged from the Alberta unemployment rate in 2014. This is likely due to a regional economy with relatively more employment in resource extraction, construction and agriculture compared to the overall Alberta economy. Annual job growth (+0.68%) is higher than the population growth rate. This indicates a potential for labor shortages in the industry and occupation classes which are gaining these jobs.

A two-century long trend of increases in the value of human labour has seen farming and other businesses in rural Canada continuously substitute machines for labour (Schultz, 1972). Rural communities are seeing a continuous decline is the number of workers producing commodities (Reimer & Bollman, 2018). This substitution of machines for labour causes rural depopulation in every community which cannot generate employment in another sector faster than what is being replaced in the primary sector. Regardless of the change in the price of the output, the increasing value of labour means that fewer and fewer workers will be employed.

Primary sector employment in Yellowhead County has fallen due to higher labour costs as real median incomes rise, and falling output prices in 2014. p. 32 p. 33

Population Older than 15 Years by Labour Force Activity

Not in the labour force In the labour force

100%

1955 2215 2175 2330 2735

75%

5105 5515 5805 6095 6035 50%

25%

0% 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Labour Force Participation

The aging local population, the influx of retirees and a largely primary sector economy may present a considerable labour challenge. With a labour force participation rate of 68.8%, Yellowhead County is lower than Parkland (70.2%), Woodlands (72.4%), Greenview (72.7%) and Brazeau County (73.8%). This may indicate a future challenge in finding qualified employees for growing industries such as healthcare, wholesale and manufacturing. Job growth in general is out-pacing population growth in Yellowhead County.

Employment per Industry (2016) Nearly 1 in 3 Yellowhead Wholesale County workers was employed 3.1% Resource Extraction Administrative 210 19.0% in either resource extraction 4.0% 215 985 or construction in 2016. Public Administration 240 4.1% Construction has grown as Education 255 an employment industry 4.6% and responded fairly well to Professional 285 Construction 680 4.9% 13.1% economic downturns. Resource Accommodation 310 extraction has also grown, 5.5% Manufacturing but with much more volatility. 6.0% 330 610 Agriculture and Forestry Health Care Agriculture/Forestry 6.4% 435 11.8% employment has decreased Transport/Warehouse 475 Retail steadily. 8.4% 9.2% Demographic Report Demographic Industry

Industry Experiencing Employment Growth (1996-2016)

Resource Extraction Construction Health Care Professional Public Administration Administrative and Support Wholesale

1250 1040 1160 985 1000

670 700 680 750 605 600 535 460 500

250

0 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Growing Industry Yellowhead County

Industry is defined by Stats Canada as the general nature of the business carried out in the establishment where the person worked. A lawyer working in an oil company would be counted in Resource Extraction, not in Professional. Employment in the Resource Extraction industry has grown at 3.14% per year since 1996, despite a 175 job decrease between 2011 and 2016. Construction has grown more slowly at 2.4% a year. This growth has been more steady, without the boom and bust displayed by Resource Extraction.

Resource Extraction, Construction, Healthcare and Professional industry employment is growing faster than the population.

Healthcare industry employment has grown from 170 to 330 jobs, reaching a peak of 355 in 2011 which represents annual growth of 4.7% a year. This growth rate may increase as an older population increases demand for healthcare services.

p. 34 Industry Experiencing Employment Loss (1996-2016) Loss (1996-2016) Bracket Employment Income by Experiencing Population Industry 1000 1250 1000 2000 3000 4000 250 500 750 1995 1995 0 0 analysis labour isneededtoidentify market gaps and issues. This dropped only to435in2016.Asthisdata to pertains Yellowhead County workers, additional Agriculture. In2011 Transportation and Warehousing companies employed 665County residents. employment alsocoincideswiththelossof occupational employment from Natural Resources and shrunk by 2.2%since1996tobecomethe3rd largest intheCounty. industry This lossinindustrial Once thedominant in industry Yellowhead County, employment inAgriculture and Forestry has Yellowhead County S fields where employment demand isgrowing fasterthan thepopulation can provide. andindustry occupation classes losingjobs. It may alsobechallenging tofill open positionsin other at +0.91%ayear. Yellowhead County’s high unemployment rate in2016 may betheresult ofcertain a year. The number ofworkers inthelabour force hasincreased from 5105to6035,growing faster Filled jobs intheCounty increased from 4730to5375since1996,atan annual rate growth of+0.68% Agriculture andForestry Agriculture $150K+ hrinking andStable Industry 1415 1075 525 820 Agriculture andForestrycompaniesemployed morethan Resource ExtractionandConstruction combinedin1996. 1997 1997 $100-149.9K 1999 1999 1990 2001 2001 940 960 780 Accommodation andFood Accommodation Retail 2003 2003 $80-99.9K Transportation andWarehousing Transportation 2005 2005 $1-19.9K 3310 1065 1640 820 925 2007 2007 $60-79.9K Education 2009 2009 $40-59.9K 2695 1180 1665 2011 2011 730 680 895 2013 2013 Manufacturing $20-39.9K 2015 2015 2290 1195 1900 495 695 900 610 2017 2017 p. 35 Demographic Report Children (0-9 Yrs) Children (0-9 Yrs) Children (0-9 Yrs) 1290 1080 1365

Child Care Spaces Child Care Spaces Child Care Spaces 346 221 24

1996 Labour Force Participation 2016 Labour Force Participation

Males Females Males Females

40.6% 43.8%

56.2% 59.4%

In 1996, 1940 females and 2785 males were employed in the County. Unemployment rates were similar at 6.5% and 7.9%. In 2016, 2445 females and 2930 males were employed with unemployment at 7% and 14%. less children entertheworkforce. labor force increases, butover timeincrease as The Dependency Ratio may stay constant asthe birthrate whichwould increase themedianage. income. Thisgenerally results inadropping couples inYellowhead County togetby onone may beduetoaninabilityfor families and More females participatinginthepaideconomy BIRTHRATES occupation classeswhichhave lostthemostjobs. to lessfemale employment and inindustry the increase infemale labour. Thisislikely due labour market hashadnoproblem integrating required for otheryears, itappearsthatthe in 2016asitwas in1996. While more datais The unemployment rate for females was similar UNEMPLOYMENT children aged0-12perlicensed space. The Edmonton Metropolitan Region averages 5.8 indicator ofapotentiallabourforce challenge. children ages0-9perspace intheregion isan the workforce dependsonqualitychildcare. 6.8 growth. The availability ofa largesegment of population growth rate, with1.16%annual County hasgrown faster than theannual The amountofemployed females in Yellowhead CHILD CARE Labour andGender p. 37 Demographic Report 2016 Immigration

1015 405 610

residents have of these moved came from moved since 2015 internally elsewhere

540 60 10

came from inside came from outside came from outside Alberta Alberta Canada

3225 1415 1815

residents have of these moved came from moved since 2010 internally elsewhere

1360 345 110

came from inside came from outside came from outside Alberta Alberta Canada

The majority of new residents come from inside Alberta, making up 75% of all new residents who moved to Yellowhead County between 2016 and 2011, and 89% of residents who moved here after 2014. p. 38 down, up,downrelationshipisalso seeninParklandCounty. The proportionofindividualsinLIM-AT householdswas6.5%in2006,11.7%2011and9.9%2016. This living inhouseholds considered tobelowincome. the 350children inlowincomehouseholds in 2011, when nearly 15%ofchildren were There were 245children living inlowincomehouseholds in2016. This isadecrease from 65 have low income status. This is a dramatic increase from 9.8% in 2011 and 2.5% in 2006. old and 245were over 65years ofage. Inrelative terms, 14.8%ofresidents over theage of This 9.9%amounts to1070individuals. 575oftheseindividuals were between 18-64years Region households, the Yellowhead County incidenceoflowincomeishigher. the LIM-AT. Compared to6.7%ofParkland County and 9.3%ofEdmonton Metropolitan In 2015,9.9%of Yellowhead County households were deemedtobelowincomebasedon adjusted for household sizestoreflect increasing needs. the person, theperson isconsidered tobeinlowincomeaccording toLIM-AT. This is income ofahousehold toaperson fallsbelow pertaining thethreshold applicable to median adjustedaftertaxincomeofprivate households. Whentheunadjustedafter-tax The LowIncomeMeasure, aftertax(LIM-AT), refers tothefixed percentage (50%) of In 2015,9.9%ofYellowheadCountyhouseholdswere Individuals in LIM-AT Households (2006-2016) Households inLIM-AT Individuals 1000 1250 250 500 750 0 deemed tobelowincomebasedontheLIM-AT Low Income 650 2006 1210 2011 1070 2016 p. 39 Demographic Report POPULATION GROWTH Issues Yellowhead County’s 1 population is growing more slowly than nearby municipalities.

AGING POPULATION

An increasingly 2 older population is more reliant on support services for healthcare, HAMLET DEPOPULATION transportation and housing.

Hamlets are experiencing 3 population decline. All population growth is occuring outside of them.

HOUSING AFFORDABILITY

Housing prices and 4 costs of renting and owning have risen faster than median household incomes.

EDUCATION

The proportion of the 5 population with post- secondary training, diplomas or degrees is below other muncipalities and Alberta in general. LABOUR

Resource, agriculture 6 and forestry industries are major employers in the County, with high employment volatility.

p. 40 Workforce Growth Job Growth Rate Unemployment Rate Participation Rate Low Income Measure Yearly Housing Starts Income Growth Shelter CostGrowth Rent >30%Income Own >30%Income Median Multiple Proportion of0-19 Proportion of20-44 Proportion of45-64 Proportion of65+ Dependency Ratio Median Age AGING POPULATION LABOUR HOUSING AFFORDABILITY Measurements +0.91% +0.68% +1.9% +2.5% 12.9% 15.5% 23.1% 27.1% 13.1% 11.0% 68.8% 9.9% 36% 3.78 58 43 - Past Year External Migrants RateBirth /Death Rate Annual Population Growth Some Post-Secondary High School Diploma No Diploma West Absolute Growth East Absolute Growth West Annual Growth Rate East Annual Growth Rate HAMLET DEPOPULATION POPULATION GROWTH EDUCATION -2.55% -0.19% 0.57% 46.9% 31.6% 21.4% -300 610 -46 - p. 41 Demographic Report Recognized as a place of choice for those who p. 42 want to be where great things happen. Regional Disclaimer rural municipality surrounds true inaregion where one boundary. This isespecially to any singular municipal flowsindustry don’t correspond Population, job, education and County residents. Census about Yellowhead collected intheNational in thisreport presents data The information presented Administration andCouncil. inform decision makers in may more accurately and labour market report A regional demographic just onesetofdata. full understood by analyzing Yellowhead County cannot be the surrounding residents of centersmajor service and relationships between the two smalltowncenters. The p. 43 Demographic Report DEMOGRAPHIC REPORT

PLANNING & DEVELOPMENT