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The Africa Infrastructure AIDI Afdb May 2016 Chief Economist Complex Development Index 2016 The Africa Infrastructure AIDI AfDB May 2016 Chief Economist Complex www.afdb.org Development Index 2016 Table of Contents 1. Introduction and Background The Africa Infrastructure Development in an earlier brief, namely “The Africa 1. Introduction Index (AIDI) is produced by the African Infrastructure Development Index (AIDI), and Background 1 Development Bank and serves a num- May 2013.”1 Readers are requested to ber of key objectives, principally: (i) to refer to that document for full details. A 2. The AIDI 2016 Highlights 2 monitor and evaluate the status and revision of the original methodology is progress of infrastructure development currently underway as more data are 3. Main Results 3 across the continent; (ii) to assist in re- collected under the auspices of the Africa source allocation within the framework Infrastructure Knowledge Program (AIKP). 4. Conclusions 8 of ADF replenishments; and (iii) to contri- bute to policy dialogue within the Bank The current AIDI covers the latest data References 9 and between the Bank, RMCs and other collected by the Bank over the period development organizations. 2000-2013 under the infrastructure Annexes 10 statistics component of its Statistical The AIDI also serves as a key tool in Capacity Building program in African evaluating and monitoring the conti- countries. The AIDI is updated and nent’s progress toward attainment of released annually. the “High 5s,” the number one priority being to “light up and power Africa.” The The annual update presents selected Charles Leyeka Lufumpa Director, indicators produced by the AIDI also indicators that comprise the Index’s ma- AfDB Statistics Department generate other indices relating to High jor components, namely: (i) Transport; ESTA 5s, namely the “Feed Africa Index,” “In- (ii) Electricity; (iii) ICT; and (iv) Water and Maurice Mubila dustrialize Africa Index,” and “Integrate Sanitation. OIC, Africa Index.” Social & Economic Statistics Division ESTA 1 This brief charts the progress made by The methodology on which the AIDI is African countries over the period 2010- Fessou Lawson based, and the background and rationale 2013 and discusses the reasons behind OIC, Statistical Capacity Building Division for its development, are expounded the latest trends. ESTA 2 Layout and production by 1 Available online at: http://www.afdb.org/fileadmin/uploads/afdb/Documents/Publications/ African Development Bank Economic_Brief_-_The_Africa_Infrastructure_Development_Index.pdf This AIDI update was prepared by Nirina Letsara, Senior Statistician and Désiré Lakpa, Assistant Statistician, under the supervision of Charles Leyeka Lufumpa, Director, Statistics Department, African Development Bank. e Africa Infrastructure African Development Bank Developmente Africa Infrastructure Index 2016 AfDB African Development Bank AfDB Development Index 2016 2. The AIDI 2016 Highlights A marked overall improvement support the shift to smartphones. The need for fiber broadband in AIDI 2016 scores: networks and the demand by both corporations and the general In general, AIDI scores are improving for all countries, although public for superfast fiber access at national levels have emerged the rate of progress for some nations has been insufficient to gain as urgent priorities to keep pace with global developments, and promotion in the AIDI rankings. this will require major financial investment. It is anticipated that in the near to medium term, ICT will continue to lead the growth The top winners in terms of rankings: and improvement in infrastructure development, as captured by Mali gained 9 positions (owing to fast ICT growth), followed by the AIDI scores. Kenya and Mauritania (5 positions due to ICT and transportation improvements), Ghana (4 positions due to ICT growth), Nigeria (3 Transport and power sectors remain positions thanks to ICT growth), Gambia, Senegal, Tanzania, and crucial to infrastructure development, Madagascar (2 positions each due to improvements in ICT, water though recording slower growth: supply & sanitation, and transport - the latter to a lesser degree). The transport and power sectors require a much higher level of investment to fuel their growth. Although these sectors are cru- The main losers in terms of rankings: cial components of the AIDI, their impact in terms of boosting Zimbabwe lost 5 positions (owing to slower growth in the sectors the rankings of African countries has of much lesser significance of transport and water supply & sanitation), followed by Burundi than that of the ICT sector. Although progress has been made and Djibouti (4 positions owing to slow growth in ICT), and Leso- in both sectors across the continent, the rate of that growth has tho (3 positions owing to slower growth in the power sector). not been great enough to affect individual country rankings in the AIDI. As the Bank’s first objective over the next decade, in terms Subregional rankings remain stable: of the High 5s, is to “Light up and Power Africa”, investments by The best performing subregion to emerge was North Africa, the AfDB targeting this sector should eventuate in major impro- followed by Southern Africa, West Africa, Central Africa, and East vements in the AIDI rankings. The Bank’s key role in catalyzing Africa. resources from development partners and from the private sector through its own participation in projects and programs in this sec- ICT emerges as the main driver of AIDI tor, will also boost investment levels. improvements: The ICT sector has driven the greatest improvements in the AIDI Water supply and sanitation – disappointing ratings over the past decade, compared to all other sectors. It progress for many countries: is no coincidence that the top ten ranked countries in the latest Slower progress in water supply and sanitation can be observed AIDI were those with the highest growth in their ICT sectors. Ac- in many African countries, compared to developing countries in cording to the AfDB report “African Telecom Infrastructure Invest- other global regions. Surprisingly, some countries that ranked in ment Needs, April 2015”, the period 2005-2010 was a period the top ten according to the AIDI scores still lack improved sa- of very high growth for mobile telephony, marked by the emer- nitation facilities, particularly in rural areas. In about half of the gence of new operators in the market, massive growth in cove- countries that make up the African continent, less than 35% of rage extensions, broadband speeds, as well as user subscrip- their populations have access to improved sanitation facilities and tions. The period 2010-2015 also witnessed the development less than 76% have access to improved water sources. The pro- of new submarine and regional overland cables, which provided gress made in this area still lags well below the targets set by the huge new capacity around coastal Africa, as well as facilitating UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This needs to be mobile operator consolidation. This period also saw large invest- addressed urgently, given the massive impact of this sector on ments by the private sector and the emergence of public-private the quality of life of Africans and its linkages to other sectors such partnerships (PPPs) in some countries, which has been a major as health – particularly in rural areas. Clearly, policies and invest- factor behind the growth. Over the next few decades, there will ments targeting this sector are imperative to drive up overall AIDI be a need to upgrade and modernize the mobile networks to scores and to achieve many of the SDGs. 2 African Development BankBank e Africa Infrastructure e Africa Infrastructure AIDI . May 2016Development Index (AIDI) Development Index 2016 AfDB 3. Main Results The AIDI 2016 results are presented in the form of scores and was due to progress made by Libya with faster growth in interna- rankings using data collected by the Bank for the period 2010- tional internet bandwidth (cf. Figure 2) and by Egypt in respect of 2013. In general, scores are improving for all African countries, al- its growth in road density per capita (Figure 3) compared to South though not necessarily at a sufficient rate to boost the rankings of Africa. many countries. Figure 1 shows the status of all African countries according to the 2016 scores. Figure 2. ICT Growth - Libya vs South Africa - Figure 1. AIDI 2016, Country Scores 250% Seychelles Egypt, Arab Rep. 200% - Libya South Africa 250% Mauritius Tunisia Morocco 150% Algeria Cabo Verde 200% Botswana Namibia Gabon 100% Gambia Sao Tome and Principe 150% Ghana Swaziland Senegal 50% Zimbabwe Kenya 100% Djibouti Comoros Zambia 0% Nigeria 50% Rwanda Internaonal Internet bandwidth (Mbit/s) Uganda (% change; annual; period 2010-2013) Cameroon Cote d'Ivoire Libya South Africa Malawi 0% Equatorial Guinea Angola Internaonal Internet bandwidth (Mbit/s) Burkina Faso (% change; annual; period 2010-2013) Lesotho Benin Libya South Africa Mauritania Burundi Sudan 50% Mali Figure 3. Transport Growth - Egypt vs South Africa Congo Guinea 40% Guinea-Bissau Liberia 50% Togo 30% Tanzania Central African Republic 40% Mozambique 20% Sierra Leone Eritrea 30% Madagascar 10% Congo, Dem. Rep. Ethiopia 20% Chad 0% Niger South Sudan 10% Somalia -10% 0% 0 20 40 60 80 100 Total Paved Roads per capita (% change; annual; period 2010-2013) -10% Egypt South Africa Total Paved Roads per capita The AIDI 2016 shows that the top ten ranked countries remained (% change; annual; period 2010-2013) Egypt South Africa the same as in the AIDI 2013, namely Seychelles, Egypt, Libya, South Africa, Mauritius, Tunisia, Morocco, Algeria, Cabo Verde, 140 and Botswana (cf. Table 1), although their specific rankings so- The bottom120 ten countries in the rankings are Mozambique, Sierra 140 100 metimes changed. These top ten countries are characterized Leone, Madagascar,120 Eritrea, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethio- 80 100 principally by a robust performance in the following sectors: ICT, pia, Chad,60 Niger, South Sudan, and Somalia. Notably, this group 80 transport and power. It is worth noting that within this top perfor- is characterized40 by low performance in ICT, transport and power.
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