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Study to Assess the Potential for Enhanced Private Participation in the Maritime and Air Transport Sectors in Africa Contract N° Ica/Tsp/001

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Study to Assess the Potential for Enhanced Private Participation in the Maritime and Air Transport Sectors in Africa Contract N° Ica/Tsp/001 Study to assess the potential for enhanced private participation in the maritime and air transport sectors in Africa contract n° ica/tsp/001 Final Report May 2012 Prepared for: Prepared by: The Infrastructure Consortium for Steer Davies Gleave Africa (ICA) hosted by 28-32 Upper Ground The African Development Bank London SE1 9PD 15, Avenue de Ghana BP. 323, 1002 Tunis Belvédère +44 (0)20 7910 5000 Tunisia www.steerdaviesgleave.com Study to assess the potential for enhanced private participation in the maritime and air transport sectors in Africa Contract N° ICA/TSP/001 Final Report May 2012 Prepared for: Prepared by: The Infrastructure Consortium for Africa (ICA) Steer Davies Gleave hosted by The African Development Bank 28-32 Upper Ground 15, Avenue de Ghana London SE1 9PD BP. 323, 1002 Tunis Belvédère Tunisia +44 (0)20 7910 5000 www.steerdaviesgleave.com Contract N° ICA/TSP/001 CONTENTS GLOSSARY ..................................................................................................... I EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ..................................................................................... 1 Introduction ........................................................................................... 1 Ports – key learning points ......................................................................... 1 Air Transport Infrastructure – key learning points ............................................. 5 Investment climate in Africa ..................................................................... 10 Evaluation Framework ............................................................................ 12 Ports Project Evaluation .......................................................................... 14 Air Transport Projects Evaluation ............................................................... 17 1 INTRODUCTION AND PROJECT OVERVIEW ................................................... 21 Project milestones and timing ................................................................... 21 2 OVERVIEW AND STAKEHOLDER CONSULTATION ............................................ 23 Introduction ......................................................................................... 23 The Infrastructure Consortium for Africa ...................................................... 23 This study ............................................................................................ 23 Scope of PPPs covered by the study ............................................................ 24 What can Public Private Partnerships in the ports and airports sector achieve? ....... 24 The interventions available to the ICA members ............................................. 24 Our approach to the study ....................................................................... 25 3 PORTS – KEY LEARNING POINTS ................................................................ 27 Introduction ......................................................................................... 27 Market background and legal framework ...................................................... 27 Past PPP projects .................................................................................. 31 Characteristics of private investors ............................................................. 35 Lessons learned from past PPP Projects ....................................................... 37 4 AIR TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE – KEY LEARNING POINTS ............................ 47 Introduction ......................................................................................... 47 Market background and legal framework ...................................................... 47 Past PPP Projects .................................................................................. 52 Characteristics of private investors and funding providers ................................. 57 Lessons learned from past PPP projects ....................................................... 58 5 INVESTMENT CLIMATE IN AFRICA .............................................................. 63 Contents Contract N° ICA/TSP/001 Introduction ......................................................................................... 63 Investment Climate ................................................................................ 64 Key influences on the availability of finance in African countries ........................ 67 Political Stability ................................................................................... 68 Governance ......................................................................................... 71 Public-Private Partnership Units ................................................................ 74 Country track record .............................................................................. 75 Summary ............................................................................................. 77 Application in the evaluation framework ...................................................... 79 6 EVALUATION FRAMEWORK ...................................................................... 81 A flexible framework .............................................................................. 81 Assessment criteria ................................................................................ 82 Project evaluation ................................................................................. 85 7 PORTS PROJECT EVALUATION .................................................................. 87 Introduction ......................................................................................... 87 Developing the long list ........................................................................... 87 Developing the shortlist .......................................................................... 96 8 AIR TRANSPORT PROJECT EVALUATION .................................................... 103 Introduction ........................................................................................ 103 Developing the long list .......................................................................... 103 Developing the shortlist ......................................................................... 110 9 CONCLUSIONS AND NEXT STEPS ............................................................. 117 FIGURES Figure 1 Terminal Operators turnover in 2010 compared with selected countries GDP (US$bn) ...................................................... 2 Figure 2 Market size and propensity to fly by country ........................... 6 Figure 3 Cumulative investment with private participation per capita, 1990- 2009........................................................................... 10 Figure 4 ICA members’ assistance options throughout the project life cycle ................................................................................ 13 Figure 5 Shortlisted ports and airports projects ................................. 19 Figure 3.1 Attractiveness of institutonal framework .............................. 29 Figure 3.2 Terminal Operators turnover in 2010 compared with selected countries GDP (US$bn) .................................................... 35 Contents Contract N° ICA/TSP/001 Figure 4.1 Market Size and propensity to fly by country ......................... 48 Figure 4.2 Historical Air Transport PPP Examples ................................. 53 Figure 5.1 Cumulative investment with private participation per capita, 1990- 2009 ........................................................................... 63 Figure 5.2 GNI per capita at purchasing power parity, 2000-2010 .............. 64 Figure 5.3 Political stability and absence of corruption, 2010 .................. 69 Figure 5.4 Nominal Treasury Bill rate, 2010 ........................................ 70 Figure 5.5 Corruption Perception Index ............................................. 71 Figure 5.6 World Bank PPI projects By Sector 1990-2011 ......................... 76 Figure 6.1 ICA Members assistance options throughout the project life cycle 81 Figure 7.1 Map showing shortlisted ports projects (including runners up) ... 102 Figure 8.1 Map showing shortlisted airports projects ............................ 115 Figure 9.1 Map showing shortlisted ports and airports projects ................ 120 TABLES Table 1 Private Port Projects by Type .............................................. 2 Table 2 Project assessment criteria ............................................... 13 Table 3 Ports projects long list .................................................... 15 Table 4 Airports projects long list ................................................. 17 Table 3.1 Private Port Projects by Type ............................................ 32 Table 3.2 EBITDA as percentage of turnover ....................................... 36 Table 3.3 Percentage of balance sheet not covered by equity ................. 36 Table 5.1 Sovererign Credit Ratings January 2012 ................................ 65 Table 5.2 African Development Bank Indicators .................................. 66 Table 5.3 Public Management Index ................................................. 72 Table 5.4 Business Environment Index .............................................. 72 Table 5.5 Ibrahim Index of African Governance ................................... 73 Table 5.6 PPP Units in African Nations .............................................. 74 Table 7.1 Long List of Port Projects ................................................. 90 Table
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