DOCSLIB.ORG

Sustainability in 2050…? OR the Main Challenge for the 20-50 Period

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Sustainability in 2050…? OR the Main Challenge for the 20-50 Period Global Change A review of current issues Jean P. Malingreau Seminar on Global Change Universitas Gadjah Mada Pascasardjana Yogyakarta October 2019 We live strange times……. Affluence, mobility, material well being, health have signicantly improved since the 50ies . The earth’s resources and environment are submitted to strong pressures, to sometimes alarming levels. Some people are announcing that because of human occupation of the earth we are now getting closer to the end of the world….! We have 12 years to limit climate change catastrophe………. warns the UN. Teenage activist Greta Thunberg, “We are less than 12 years away from not being able to undo our mistakes.” Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, in front of a crowd in New York City in January “The world is going to end in 12 years if we don’t address climate change.” Is this correct? Does it help? A new vocabulary has appeared: …….. Collapsing earth A global systemic catastrophy Extreme events Run away ecosystems 12 years to the end (?) Collapsology, collapsonauts, collapsosophy Disasters Climate justice ..…… Another End of the world Is possible (to live the collapse and not only survive it !) Is this the future…??? Apollo 8 Dec. 24.1968 This is our planet. Did you say « global »….? - A global phenomena - A local event with global incidences - A global attention - A global perspective Or…a continuum : individual, local, national, regional, continental, global - Global pressures - Global concern and responsability - Global management - Indonesia and global situation GLOBAL CHANGE DESCRIBES THE CHANGES THAT ARE TAKING PLACE IN THE ATMOSPHERE, HYDROSPHERE, BIOSPHERE AND LITHOSPHERE OF THE EARTH AT A PLANETARY SCALE AND IN THE SPAN OF HUMAN LIFE TIME RATIONALE- to be discussed during series of seminars A. WHY develop and maintain global understanding ? Why is it important for Indonesia? from size to power from national concerns to global responsabilities ………. B. WHY attempt to project in the future ? Foresight Man has become the major force in driving changes on the earth and some have argued that we have now entered the « Anthropocene » The Anthropocene defines Earth's most recent geologic time period as being human- influenced, or anthropogenic, based on overwhelming global evidence that atmospheric, geologic, hydrologic, biospheric and other earth system processes are now altered by humans. Discussion Societal system has taken over natural systems What about in the long term ? sustainable development résilience of ecosystems, bounce-back effect …etc? ! One geophysical event (e.g. earthquake, volcanic eruption and ashes, tsunami) may have more far reaching effects than human impact. Is man too arrogant? Identifying the key issues of our time Addressing basic needs of a growing population : -Food Water Health Education Shelter Security -? MOBILITY………. Urbanization to accelerate globally Source: UN, World Population Assessment 2007. POP. 10 b. ? 2020 2050 2100 ! + Changes in population profile……(age, income, rural/urban) NEEDS Earth’s capacity 2020 2050 2100 Earth Capacity Human needs TRANSITION – The Challenge of the 20-50 The Main Challenge for the 20-50 period SECURING THE TRANSITION from an unsustainable to a sustainable world while satisfying the needs of a growing and more demanding population Towards reaching full sustainability in 2050…? OR The Main Challenge for the 20-50 period SECURING THE TRANSITION : satisfying the needs of a growing and more demanding population while progressing from an unsustainable to a sustainable world Towards reaching full satisfaction of needs in 2050…? An global examination resources and environment questions is critical for several reasons: Scientific understanding of the earth system Addressing geopolitical issues related to the management and sharing of space and resources Economic development (markets are global) Individual concerns : solidarity, ethics, sharing, Professional The 2000 era: Addressing global issues (ecosystem services, resources, climate) Answering societal needs (food, energy, security) Supporting policies Focus is on detecting , measuring and understanding the « D » Searching for the « D » 12000 El Niño La La Niña El Niño La Niña El Niño A El Niño 10000 Pinatubo 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 Year D = Xt2 – Xt1 Requires definition of : • Measured parameter (X) • Reference period (t2-t1) • Territory over which measurement applies (! Global) • Temporal resolution (significant) Examples of global changes….(real or expected…) • State of the ecosystems (structure, services) • Evolution of vegetation cover • Agriculture for 10 billions • Climate change • Sea level • Urbanisation • Biodiversity Etc… Intensification (Rondonia – Brasil) 2005 Peak followed by rapid decrease to 2010 - drivers ? - 2011 + ? Soya bean agriculture –biofuels-feedstock-tropical deforestation-Matto Grosso. Meris August 22.08 August 2008 Brazil, Mato Grosso: global change in the making Since the early 80ies: +1 M Ha in Indonesia Kalimantan + 3 M Ha in Malaysia Sabah CO2 CO2 1 2 Background image SPOT HRV 10 m March 2005 (image source JRC, data source CNES ) Creeping or organized deforesta tion? Northeast China (Aug. 2008) C source IN GLOBAL FOREST C sink D COVER - PATHWAYS Mosaic/ Urban/ Dense Degraded Agricult Bare forest forest ure soil Savanna For. Dense REGENERATION (FC >70%) REFORESTATION For. Degraded DEGRADATION (FC 30-70%) FIRES Mosaïc Forest/Agricultur e DEFORESTATION Bare soil/ urbain Savanna State of Climate, weather vegetation Vegetation type and structure IMPACTS Biomass,burned Area GHG Smoke Management Physical Damage Arson Health Biodiversity Ignorance BIOMASS BURNING Natural Demand for agri Ignition Land use products Land management Survival , Profit FOOD – the challenges ahead Will there be enough food to feed 10 billions people ? Yes, says the FAO…..but Will everyone have access to nutritious food Probably 1 billion experiencing food deficiency –(obesity!) Can we grow/raise/harvest food in a sustainable manner? Not there yet? THE NUMBER OF UNDERNOURISHED PEOPLE IN THE WORLD HAS BEEN ON THE RISE SINCE 2015, AND IS BACK TO LEVELS SEEN IN 2010–2011 MONITORING ? With global food production matching growth in the global population, significant pressure is now being placed on the functionality of the Supply Chains required to deliver this food to the customer. Scenarios 2050 : food supply and sustainability Sustainability* NO YES NO 1 2 Satisfaction of needs Satisfaction Business Sustainable as but usual short 3 4 YES The minimum Best requirement of 2 worlds * In this case, essentially environmental DRIVERS IN FOOD SECURITY Demand/ p.2 Demography /affluence/diets Access Enabling Environment, Food supply, (infrastructure, markets, land tenure, education, etc) Market, stocks,.. Land resources (area, fertility, soil conditions) International Storage/ commodity market, Capital flows, WTO processing /transport Water resources (water balance, irrigation) Crop Planted Area Crop growth production X Conditions/yield N years * N years* Climate (variability, change, water, temp ) Economic Aspects Biological National ,farm level Resources Technology (plant material, seeds) Cropping, plant protection, chemical fertilizers, pest/insecticides Sustainability Impacts, Significant energy component ecosystem services * To 2050 DRIVERS IN FOOD SECURITY 2050 Demography /affluence/diets Demand/ p.2 ?? Access Enabling Environment, Food supply, (infrastructure, markets, land tenure, education, etc) Market, stocks,.. Land resources (area, fertility, soil conditions) International Storage/ commodity market, Capital flows, WTO processing /transport Water resources (water balance, irrigation) Crop Planted Area Crop growth production X Conditions/yield N years * N years* Climate (variability, change, water, temp ) Economic Aspects Biological National ,farm level Resources Technology (plant material, seeds) Cropping, plant protection, chemical fertilizers, pest/insecticides Sustainability Impacts, ecosystem services predicatability *; **, *** DRIVERS IN FOOD SECURITY 2050 Demography /affluence/diets Demand/ p.2 ?? Access Enabling Environment, Food supply, (infrastructure, markets, land tenure, education, etc) Market, stocks,.. Land resources (area, fertility, soil conditions) International Storage/ commodity market, Capital flows, WTO processing /transport Water resources (water balance, irrigation) Crop Planted Area Crop growth production X Conditions/yield N years * N years* Climate (variability, change, water, temp ) Economic Aspects Biological National ,farm level Resources Technology (plant material, seeds) Cropping, plant protection, chemical fertilizers, pest/insecticides Sustainability Impacts, ecosystem services predicatability *; **, *** In 2030, more than 60% of the world population will live in cities. Feeding the world will first be feeding cities…..! Urbanization to accelerate globally MEETING DEMAND IN FOOD PRODUCTS more than FOOD NEEDS Source: UN, World Population Assessment 2007. A clusters approach to analyzing food systems of the future: 1. Resilience 2. sustainability 3. poverty alleviation/equity 4. production cluster Addressing global issues requires the capacity to monitor change everywhere anytime Source: NASA C o p e r n i c u s Europe's eyes on Earth European Commission DG GROW- Internal market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs Directorate I – Space policy, Copernicus and Defence Copernicus EU Copernicus EU Copernicus EU www.copernicus.eu The seamless integration of new data sources together with satellite data will represent the foundation of global knowledge of the future This sector offers numerous possibility for innovation 72 Watching the tech trends Data Mining Visualisation 3D Simulation Virtual Labs Modelling Web 2 technologies Data Open source/Knowledge Infrastructures sharing Digital Sensors Libraries Science KETs Clouds Exascale Networks Supercomputers Satellites are the true sentinels of the Earth ! The Anthropocene is not the end of our world. It's just the beginning. TRUST ME…! Terima kasih.
Load more

Recommended publications
  • AMUNDI 10-YEAR 2010 - 2020: the End of Traditional Asset Management
    AMUNDI 10-YEAR 2010 - 2020: The End of Traditional Asset Management ABOUT AMUNDI Amundi, the leading European asset manager, ranking among the top 10 global players1, offers its 100 million clients - retail, institutional and corporate - a complete range of savings and investment solutions in active and passive management, in traditional or real assets. With its six international investment hubs2, financial and extra-financial research capabilities and long-standing commitment to responsible investment, Amundi is a key player in the asset management landscape. Amundi clients benefit from the expertise and advice of 4,500 employees in nearly 40 countries. Created in 2010 and listed on the stock exchange in 2015, Amundi currently manages nearly €1.6 trillion of assets3. Amundi, a Trusted Partner, working every day 2010 - 2020: The End of Traditional Asset Management Asset End of Traditional The 2010 - 2020: in the interest of its clients and society www.amundi.com 1. Source: IPE “Top 500 Asset Managers” published in June 2020, based on assets under management as at 31/12/2019 2. Boston, Dublin, London, Milan, Paris and Tokyo 3. Amundi data as at 30/06/2020 Amundi Asset Management, French “Société par Actions Simplifiée” - SAS with a capital of AMUNDI 10-YEAR €1,086,262,605 - Portfolio management company approved by the French Financial Markets Authority (Autorité des Marchés Financiers) under no.GP 04000036. Registered office: 90, boulevard Pasteur, 75015 Paris - France - 437 574 452 RCS Paris A Decade of Sharing Expertise AMUNDI 10-YEAR 2010 - 2020: The End of Traditional Asset Management A Decade of Sharing Expertise TABLE OF CONTENTS AMUNDI 10-YEAR 2010 - 2020: The End of Traditional Asset Management p.
    [Show full text]
  • Powering Fast Forward Thinking
    1 Powering Fast Forward Thinking THE AXA 2019 FORESIGHT TRENDBOOK 2 Editorial 3 AXA Foresight: Who are we? 4 Environment 5 Health 21 New Tech 37 Socio-Economics 53 Appendix 69 Acknowledgement & Credits 70 3 EDITORIAL Editorial Using past experience to anticipate probable future is at the core of insurance. At the same time, as an investor and asset manager, we know that past performance is no guarantee of future results. Societies’, companies’ and individuals’ fates may be overturned, for better or worse, by an unexpected combination of existing trends, by major scientific breakthrough or by a “black swan” event. Foresight is not about the extrapolation of existing trends, it is about the identification of potential disruptions. At AXA, day-to-day management matters but we also have the conviction that true achievements are founded on long term visions. We feel that a foresight effort is important to build our strategy but might also be useful to tackle many public debates. This first Trendbook is a modest contribution to answer this need to broaden our horizons. With this publication, we hope to provide more than a simple compilation of “trending topics”: exploring “ Foresight is not about the substance beyond buzzwords and, based on latest scientific evidence, sharing visions and options for decision-making. extrapolation of existing Indeed, we believe that concepts such as “slashers”, “affective computing” or “genetic engineering” will change trends, it is about the the way we think, live and work. identification of potential Our research initiatives, notably through the AXA Research Fund, are focused around four pillars: Environment & disruptions.
    [Show full text]
  • Environmental Ethics.Syllabus Web
    Environmental Ethics GPHI 6770, CRN 8456, Spring 2021 Thursdays 1:55 – 3:45 Professor Jay Bernstein, [email protected] Office Hours: Thursday 4:15–6:00 or by appointment Professor Alice Crary, [email protected] Office hours: W 2:45-3:45/Th 12:30-1:30 and by appointment Course Description This seminar will focus on the ongoing destruction of nature from anthropogenic planetary climate change. This catastrophe poses a problem for which traditional ethical theories have left us ill- prepared, and attempts at dealing with it in the form of “applied ethics” have proved unhelpful. A productive engagement needs to start from a willingness to radically rethink the categories that we use to describe this historical moment and the resources we have to respond to it meaningfully. We will talk about how climate crisis has challenged not only engrained metaphysical understandings of the relation between nature and culture but also received understandings of moral notions such as justice, responsibility and blame. We will also consider how it brings into question familiar conceptions of political institutions such as markets, property, states. We will attempt this kind of transformative approach to climate crisis by reading widely—and in a fully interdisciplinary manner —in the literature. Seminar topics will include the Anthropocene, ecocide, ecofeminism, environmentalism and animal ethics, anthropocentric/biocentric/ecocentric environmental ethics, responsibility (i.e., who is responsible for change?), global justice, justice vis-a-vis future
    [Show full text]
  • The Demographic Challenge: Myths and Realities
    The Demographic Challenge: Myths and Realities NOTE JULY 2018 The Demographic Challenge: Myths and Realities NOTE - JULY 2018 “There are three important things in history: first, numbers; second, numbers; and third, numbers.1” 1 The Decline of the American Empire, film by Denys Arcand, 1986. CONTENTS Introduction .......................................................................................... 5 I. A turning point in human history ................................................... 8 II. Towards a new hierarchy of powers ................................................. 21 III. A lack of resources? .................................................................... 28 IV. A “crescent of crisis” around Europe .............................................. 35 V. Are migrations unavoidable? ....................................................... 40 VI. Eurasia: the societal challenge ..................................................... 57 Conclusion ........................................................................................ 68 3 THE DEMOGRAPHIC CHALLENGE: MYTHS AND REALITIES 4 INTRODUCTION The demographic challenge is not what it used to be. In the early 1980s, the “population explosion” was the main focus of discussion. Since then, all our references have been shaken. The developing countries’ entry into demographic modernity occurred earlier than expected, but the future growth of Africa’s population was revised upwards. Industrialized countries’ aging has become a growing concern, and America seems to be the only
    [Show full text]
  • Politics2021
    politics 2021 new and recent titles I polity Page 7 Page 13 Page 13 Page 3 Page 11 Page 7 Page 51 Page 2 Page 6 CONTENTS Ordering details General Politics ............................................ 2 Books can be ordered through our website www.politybooks.com or via: Customer Care Center, John Wiley & Sons Inc. Introductory Texts ....................................... 16 9200 KEYSTONE Crossing STE 800 INDIANAPOLIS, IN 46209-4087 Toll-Free: (877) 762-2974 Fax: (877) 597-3299 Global and Comparative Politics .................. 18 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. European Distribution Centre, New Era Estate, Oldlands Way, Environmental Politics ................................. 19 Bognor Regis, WEST SUSSEX. PO22 9NQ, UK Freephone (UK only): 0800 243407 Overseas callers: +44 1243 843291 Political Economy ....................................... 22 Fax: +44 (0) 1243 843302 Email: [email protected] For Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Luxembourg and Liechtenstein: War and International Security ..................... 28 Phone: +49 6201 606152 Fax: +49 6201 606184 Email: [email protected] Conflict Resolution and Peacebuilding .......... 29 For Australia, New Zealand and Pacific Islands: Toll-free within Australia: 1800 777 474 Toll-free with New Zealand: 0800 448 200 Phone: +61 7 33548455 Development and and Human Rights ............ 30 UK and European Politics ............................ 31 Inspection Copies Most paperback editions featured in this catalogue are Russian Politics ........................................... 32 available for inspection. A maximum of three books may be considered for relevant courses with at least 12 students. A reply form must be returned to this effect. Middle Eastern Politics ................................ 33 Phone (US & Canada): (800) 225-5945 Email: ccopy@wiley,com Freephone (UK only): 0800 243407 Email: [email protected] Phone (Rest of World): +44 1243 843294 Asian Politics .............................................
    [Show full text]
  • The Future of Mind Health and Well-Being
    The Future of Mind Health and Well-being THE AXA 2020 FORESIGHT REPORT 2 3 Foreword One out of five people in the world today experiences a mental disorder in any given year. Foreword 03 Mind Health issues can affect anyone, regardless of age, race and economic or social class, and most of us will be affected at some point in our lives, indirectly if not directly. Given the ageing of populations in most regions of the globe and the higher incidence of mental health Introduction 04 disorders in people who suffer from chronic disease, mental health issues are likely to rise. Moreover, almost 50% of mental illnesses begin at an early age, thus affecting youth and hav- ing potentially devastating outcomes on lives at a stage where diagnosis is still weak. Women, 1. Health and the mind 07 who play a predominant role in caregiving both for the elderly and children and often head single-parent families, seem to have a higher and more persistent prevalence of depression and anxiety. Clearly, mental health is a public health, economic and societal issue. Despite 2. Towards tech-driven solutions 21 this, it still goes largely undiagnosed, and patients appear reluctant to seek professional help because of the stigma associated with these disorders. Indeed, mental health is only recently gaining traction and being put on the agenda. 3. Environment : As a responsible global insurer and a major private sector player, AXA has multiple roles to the roots of new disorders 35 play in the mental health area. Firstly, by helping to shed light on the issues surrounding men- tal health, raising awareness to better plan prevention and treatment strategies, particularly in areas where cures exist yet are not applied because of poor or tardy diagnosis.
    [Show full text]
  • Yves Citton Collapsology As the Horizon
    « Collapsology as the Horizon », Electra, n° 9, 2020, p. 87-104. Yves Citton Collapsology as the Horizon At the time of writing, the part of the European continent identified as ‘France’ is experiencing a massive strike against the (umpteenth) ‘pension reform’, paralyzing part of its transport (SNCF, RATP), its media (Radio France), its hospitals, its schools, its universities. As I am finishing this first sentence, one of the cats who share my living space has gone to perch on the roof of a garage in front of my window, where he has sat down to contemplate what is happening in the street. At the turn of the 2020s, the obstructions and setbacks experienced at the last COP 24 and 25 meetings seem to steer the prospects for global warming closer to an average 4°C increase than to the 2°C initially set as an absolute ceiling. These three temporalities coexist in my experience of the world, without really articulating with each other. It would be absurd to say that ‘everything is speeding up’ (my travel time around the Paris region has increased considerably over the last few days) or that ‘the world is in crisis’ (my cat seems to be watching the street with a serene eye). What is the point of trying to hold a general discourse on speed, acceleration, crisis, and collapse, when the levels of reality, the scales of magnitude, and the rhythms of life and death of individual beings as well as of social formations are so heterogeneous and incomparable? If ‘Anthropocene’—a rather unfortunate term, to be modulated in Capitalocene, Eurocene, Androcene, Plantationocene—means anything, it is that the way in which humans represent their small worlds contributes decisively to the material evolution of the living environments that all the inhabitants of planet Earth must share.
    [Show full text]
  • Welcome to the Anthropocene!; the UNESCO Courier; Vol.:2; 2018
    THE UNESCO CourierApril-June 2018 Welcome to the Anthropocene! 2220-2285 United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization Read the Subscribe to UNESCO the digital version Courier It’s 100% and spread FREE! the word! https://en.unesco.org/courier/subscribe Published in Be a major actor! 9 languages Arabic, Chinese, English, Share the UNESCO Courier Esperanto, French, Portuguese, with your network Russian, Sardinian and Spanish. by promoting it, in line with Become an active publishing partner by proposing new language editions of the Organization’s Open Access the UNESCO Courier. publishing policy: Contact: [email protected] https://en.unesco.org/open-access Subscribe to the print version t 1 year (4 issues): €27 t 2 years (8 issues): €54 Subscription fees cover printing and For more details, visit: http://publishing.unesco.org distribution costs. There is no profit motive. or contact Discounted rates for group subscriptions: DL Services, C/O Michot Warehouses, 10% discount for five or more subscriptions. Chaussée de Mons 77, B 1600 Sint Pieters Leeuw, Belgium Tel: (+ 32) 477 455 329 E-mail: [email protected] tO¡t1VCMJTIFETJODF Editors: *44/tF*44/ Arabic: Anissa Barrak The UNESCO Courier is published quarterly by Chinese: Sun Min and China Translation the United Nations Educational, Scientifc and and Publishing House Cultural Organization. It promotes the ideals of English: Shiraz Sidhva Periodical available in Open Access under the Attribution-ShareAlike 3.0 IGO (CC-BY-SA 3.0 IGO) licence UNESCO by sharing ideas on issues of French: Régis Meyran (http:// creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/igo/).
    [Show full text]
  • Yves Citton Collapsonauts Need Medianarchists
    « Collapsonauts Need Medianarchists » Agnès Villette in conversation with Yves Citton, Dust Magazine, n° 16, 2020 Yves Citton Collapsonauts Need Medianarchists Agnès Villette – I am always interested to figure out where writers come from (linguistically, culturally, intellectually....). As a theorist and essayist writing on Media Culture, Media Archeology, your original background is in literature. What was the journey? And how does literature seep into your approach, teaching, writing, theorising....? Yves Citton – Literary studies are broadly (although unofficially and sometimes unconsciously) perceived as a dying discipline in the university. The imperative of “professionalization” addressed to the academia is killing them. Literary studies, as well as the Humanities at large, are not seen as necessary to train competitive businessmen, nor do they mass-produce ready-to-hire employees. What they do—in my view—is help us understand and play with the dynamics of mediation. They invite and train us to adopt a very particular form of attention, which produces two displacements. It is often repeated that when the wise man points to the moon, the fool looks at the finger that points, rather than at what is pointed to. Literary attention teaches us to look at the moon, because it is a beautiful thing, but it calls upon us simultaneously to study the finger and the wise man (Why is he pointing? How? When?)—first displacement—and to keep an eye on the background of the constellation which surrounds the moon and the finger and the wise man and the viewer— second displacement. While my book Mediarchy does not talk about literature, it performs this double displacement which is constitutive of literary attention.
    [Show full text]
  • Pope Tells French Group of His "Ecological Conversion" by Loup Besmond De Senneville | Vatican City September 2020
    Pope tells French group of his "ecological conversion" By Loup Besmond de Senneville | Vatican City September 2020 A widely diverse group of French personalities involved in the ecological movement, from an actress to an archbishop, have private meeting with Pope Francis Pope Francis receives 16 French personalities to speak about ecology on September 3, 2020, at the Vatican. (Photo by VATICAN MEDIA-FOTO/CPP/CIRIC) They travelled from France for some 20 hours by train and bus. But by Thursday a group of 16 very different French personalities were in the Eternal City for an important meeting on the environment with Pope Francis. As they crossed Saint Peter's Square in the blazing sun and headed towards the Apostolic Palace, two of them carried a small green plant. Among their number were actress Juliette Binoche and the Jesuit economist Father Gaël Giraud. The group of 16, which included believers and non-believers alike, was led by Archbishop Éric de Moulins-Beaufort, president of the French Bishops' Conference. United by a common commitment to caring for the environment, they were able to engage the pope in an hour-long discussion on ecological concerns. The gathering came five years after Francis published his encyclical Laudato si', "On Care for Our Common Home". The participants said the exchange was particularly profound. Afterwards even those who are not close to the Church -- like agricultural engineer Pablo Servigne -- said they were "touched by the pope's message". "I was angry with the Catholic institution until the publication of Laudato si'," said Servigne, who coined the neologism "collapsology" to designate the study of the risks of the collapse of our industrial civilization.
    [Show full text]
  • Deep Adaptation: a Map for Navigating Climate Tragedy
    Deep Adaptation: A Map for Navigating Climate Tragedy IFLAS Occasional Paper 2 www.iflas.info Professor Jem Bendell BA (Hons) PhD Originally Published July 27th 2018. Revised 2nd Edition Released July 27th 2020. Author’s note on this updated version: Two years after its first release, this paper has influenced hundreds of thousands of people to reconsider their lives and work in the face of dangerous climate change. A new agenda, community and movement for Deep Adaptation to our predicament has been borne. It is comprised of people who believe that a climate-influenced collapse of societies in most parts of the world in the coming decades is either likely, inevitable or already unfolding. They are organising a diversity of activities to help reduce harm, save what we can, and create possibilities for the future while experiencing meaning and joy in the process. This movement has grown through word-of-mouth, as I did not actively seek to promote Deep Adaptation through the mass media, and instead focused on enabling peer-to-peer support. Outside of management studies, there is a wide field of scholarship on the experience and possibility of societal collapse, which I did not know about when we released this paper from the Institute in July 2018. In addition, over the last two years many scientists have concluded that societal collapse is the most likely scenario. However, this paper appears to have an iconic status amongst some people who criticise others for anticipating societal collapse. Therefore, two years on from initial publication, I am releasing this update.
    [Show full text]
  • Download (584Kb)
    Munich Personal RePEc Archive Happier and Sustainable. Possibilities for a post-growth society Bartolini, Stefano and Sarracino, Francesco University of Siena, National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (STATEC) 15 June 2021 Online at https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/108309/ MPRA Paper No. 108309, posted 16 Jun 2021 10:16 UTC 1 Happier and Sustainable. Possibilities for a post-growth society Stefano Bartolini1 and Francesco Sarracino2 Abstract Empirical evidence suggests that achieving sustainability requires reducing economic growth, not just greening it. This conclusion often leads to ecological pessimism, based on two beliefs. The first is that there is a human tendency to unlimited expansion; the second is that lack of consensus makes limiting growth politically unfeasible. We challenge both beliefs. The decline of fertility and per-capita income growth provide reasons to expect decreasing human pressure on ecosystems. Moreover, the lack of a clear alternative to growth as a means to increase well-being creates the widespread perception of a trade- off between sustainability and current well-being. This hinders the consensus to the policy of limits to growth. Drawing on a large literature on happiness, social capital and other topics, we argue that policies for social capital can decouple well-being from economic growth. Indeed, the crisis of social capital experienced by much of the world's population is at the origin of the current unsustainable growth of the world economy. Declining social capital leads the economies to excessive growth, because people seek economic affluence to compensate for the emotional distress and collective disempowerment caused by poor social capital.
    [Show full text]