Deep Adaptation: a Map for Navigating Climate Tragedy
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Apocalypse Now? Initial Lessons from the Covid-19 Pandemic for the Governance of Existential and Global Catastrophic Risks
journal of international humanitarian legal studies 11 (2020) 295-310 brill.com/ihls Apocalypse Now? Initial Lessons from the Covid-19 Pandemic for the Governance of Existential and Global Catastrophic Risks Hin-Yan Liu, Kristian Lauta and Matthijs Maas Faculty of Law, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark [email protected]; [email protected]; [email protected] Abstract This paper explores the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic through the framework of exis- tential risks – a class of extreme risks that threaten the entire future of humanity. In doing so, we tease out three lessons: (1) possible reasons underlying the limits and shortfalls of international law, international institutions and other actors which Covid-19 has revealed, and what they reveal about the resilience or fragility of institu- tional frameworks in the face of existential risks; (2) using Covid-19 to test and refine our prior ‘Boring Apocalypses’ model for understanding the interplay of hazards, vul- nerabilities and exposures in facilitating a particular disaster, or magnifying its effects; and (3) to extrapolate some possible futures for existential risk scholarship and governance. Keywords Covid-19 – pandemics – existential risks – global catastrophic risks – boring apocalypses 1 Introduction: Our First ‘Brush’ with Existential Risk? All too suddenly, yesterday’s ‘impossibilities’ have turned into today’s ‘condi- tions’. The impossible has already happened, and quickly. The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, both directly and as manifested through the far-reaching global societal responses to it, signal a jarring departure away from even the © koninklijke brill nv, leiden, 2020 | doi:10.1163/18781527-01102004Downloaded from Brill.com09/27/2021 12:13:00AM via free access <UN> 296 Liu, Lauta and Maas recent past, and suggest that our futures will be profoundly different in its af- termath. -
UC Santa Barbara Other Recent Work
UC Santa Barbara Other Recent Work Title Geopolitics, History, and International Relations Permalink https://escholarship.org/uc/item/29z457nf Author Robinson, William I. Publication Date 2009 Peer reviewed eScholarship.org Powered by the California Digital Library University of California OFFICIAL JOURNAL OF THE CONTEMPORARY SCIENCE ASSOCIATION • NEW YORK Geopolitics, History, and International Relations VOLUME 1(2) • 2009 ADDLETON ACADEMIC PUBLISHERS • NEW YORK Geopolitics, History, and International Relations 1(2) 2009 An international peer-reviewed academic journal Copyright © 2009 by the Contemporary Science Association, New York Geopolitics, History, and International Relations seeks to explore the theoretical implications of contemporary geopolitics with particular reference to territorial problems and issues of state sovereignty, and publishes papers on contemporary world politics and the global political economy from a variety of methodologies and approaches. Interdisciplinary and wide-ranging in scope, Geopolitics, History, and International Relations also provides a forum for discussion on the latest developments in the theory of international relations and aims to promote an understanding of the breadth, depth and policy relevance of international history. Its purpose is to stimulate and disseminate theory-aware research and scholarship in international relations throughout the international academic community. Geopolitics, History, and International Relations offers important original contributions by outstanding scholars and has the potential to become one of the leading journals in the field, embracing all aspects of the history of relations between states and societies. Journal ranking: A on a seven-point scale (A+, A, B+, B, C+, C, D). Geopolitics, History, and International Relations is published twice a year by Addleton Academic Publishers, 30-18 50th Street, Woodside, New York, 11377. -
AMUNDI 10-YEAR 2010 - 2020: the End of Traditional Asset Management
AMUNDI 10-YEAR 2010 - 2020: The End of Traditional Asset Management ABOUT AMUNDI Amundi, the leading European asset manager, ranking among the top 10 global players1, offers its 100 million clients - retail, institutional and corporate - a complete range of savings and investment solutions in active and passive management, in traditional or real assets. With its six international investment hubs2, financial and extra-financial research capabilities and long-standing commitment to responsible investment, Amundi is a key player in the asset management landscape. Amundi clients benefit from the expertise and advice of 4,500 employees in nearly 40 countries. Created in 2010 and listed on the stock exchange in 2015, Amundi currently manages nearly €1.6 trillion of assets3. Amundi, a Trusted Partner, working every day 2010 - 2020: The End of Traditional Asset Management Asset End of Traditional The 2010 - 2020: in the interest of its clients and society www.amundi.com 1. Source: IPE “Top 500 Asset Managers” published in June 2020, based on assets under management as at 31/12/2019 2. Boston, Dublin, London, Milan, Paris and Tokyo 3. Amundi data as at 30/06/2020 Amundi Asset Management, French “Société par Actions Simplifiée” - SAS with a capital of AMUNDI 10-YEAR €1,086,262,605 - Portfolio management company approved by the French Financial Markets Authority (Autorité des Marchés Financiers) under no.GP 04000036. Registered office: 90, boulevard Pasteur, 75015 Paris - France - 437 574 452 RCS Paris A Decade of Sharing Expertise AMUNDI 10-YEAR 2010 - 2020: The End of Traditional Asset Management A Decade of Sharing Expertise TABLE OF CONTENTS AMUNDI 10-YEAR 2010 - 2020: The End of Traditional Asset Management p. -
The Most Extreme Risks: Global Catastrophes Seth D
The Most Extreme Risks: Global Catastrophes Seth D. Baum and Anthony M. Barrett Global Catastrophic Risk Institute http://sethbaum.com * http://tony-barrett.com * http://gcrinstitute.org In Vicki Bier (editor), The Gower Handbook of Extreme Risk. Farnham, UK: Gower, forthcoming. This version 5 February 2015. Abstract The most extreme risk are those that threaten the entirety of human civilization, known as global catastrophic risks. The very extreme nature of global catastrophes makes them both challenging to analyze and important to address. They are challenging to analyze because they are largely unprecedented and because they involve the entire global human system. They are important to address because they threaten everyone around the world and future generations. Global catastrophic risks also pose some deep dilemmas. One dilemma occurs when actions to reduce global catastrophic risk could harm society in other ways, as in the case of geoengineering to reduce catastrophic climate change risk. Another dilemma occurs when reducing one global catastrophic risk could increase another, as in the case of nuclear power reducing climate change risk while increasing risks from nuclear weapons. The complex, interrelated nature of global catastrophic risk suggests a research agenda in which the full space of risks are assessed in an integrated fashion in consideration of the deep dilemmas and other challenges they pose. Such an agenda can help identify the best ways to manage these most extreme risks and keep human civilization safe. 1. Introduction The most extreme type of risk is the risk of a global catastrophe causing permanent worldwide destruction to human civilization. In the most extreme cases, human extinction could occur. -
Catastrophe, Social Collapse, and Human Extinction
Catastrophe, Social Collapse, and Human Extinction Robin Hanson∗ Department of Economics George Mason University† August 2007 Abstract Humans have slowly built more productive societies by slowly acquiring various kinds of capital, and by carefully matching them to each other. Because disruptions can disturb this careful matching, and discourage social coordination, large disruptions can cause a “social collapse,” i.e., a reduction in productivity out of proportion to the disruption. For many types of disasters, severity seems to follow a power law distribution. For some of types, such as wars and earthquakes, most of the expected harm is predicted to occur in extreme events, which kill most people on Earth. So if we are willing to worry about any war or earthquake, we should worry especially about extreme versions. If individuals varied little in their resistance to such disruptions, events a little stronger than extreme ones would eliminate humanity, and our only hope would be to prevent such events. If individuals vary a lot in their resistance, however, then it may pay to increase the variance in such resistance, such as by creating special sanctuaries from which the few remaining humans could rebuild society. Introduction “Modern society is a bicycle, with economic growth being the forward momentum that keeps the wheels spinning. As long as the wheels of a bicycle are spinning rapidly, it is a very stable vehicle indeed. But, [Friedman] argues, when the wheels stop - even as the result of economic stagnation, rather than a downturn or a depression - political democracy, individual liberty, and social tolerance are then greatly at risk even in countries where the absolute level of material prosperity remains high....” (DeLong, 2006) ∗For their comments I thank Jason Matheny, the editors, and an anonymous referee. -
Powering Fast Forward Thinking
1 Powering Fast Forward Thinking THE AXA 2019 FORESIGHT TRENDBOOK 2 Editorial 3 AXA Foresight: Who are we? 4 Environment 5 Health 21 New Tech 37 Socio-Economics 53 Appendix 69 Acknowledgement & Credits 70 3 EDITORIAL Editorial Using past experience to anticipate probable future is at the core of insurance. At the same time, as an investor and asset manager, we know that past performance is no guarantee of future results. Societies’, companies’ and individuals’ fates may be overturned, for better or worse, by an unexpected combination of existing trends, by major scientific breakthrough or by a “black swan” event. Foresight is not about the extrapolation of existing trends, it is about the identification of potential disruptions. At AXA, day-to-day management matters but we also have the conviction that true achievements are founded on long term visions. We feel that a foresight effort is important to build our strategy but might also be useful to tackle many public debates. This first Trendbook is a modest contribution to answer this need to broaden our horizons. With this publication, we hope to provide more than a simple compilation of “trending topics”: exploring “ Foresight is not about the substance beyond buzzwords and, based on latest scientific evidence, sharing visions and options for decision-making. extrapolation of existing Indeed, we believe that concepts such as “slashers”, “affective computing” or “genetic engineering” will change trends, it is about the the way we think, live and work. identification of potential Our research initiatives, notably through the AXA Research Fund, are focused around four pillars: Environment & disruptions. -
Double Catastrophe: Intermittent Stratospheric Geoengineering Induced by Societal Collapse
Double Catastrophe: Intermittent Stratospheric Geoengineering Induced By Societal Collapse Seth D. Baum1,2,3,4,*, Timothy M. Maher, Jr.1,5, and Jacob Haqq-Misra1,4 1. Global Catastrophic Risk Institute 2. Department of Geography, Pennsylvania State University 3. Center for Research on Environmental Decisions, Columbia University 4. Blue Marble Space Institute of Science 5. Center for Environmental Policy, Bard College * Corresponding author. [email protected] Environment, Systems and Decisions 33(1):168-180. This version: 23 March 2013 Abstract Perceived failure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions has prompted interest in avoiding the harms of climate change via geoengineering, that is, the intentional manipulation of Earth system processes. Perhaps the most promising geoengineering technique is stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI), which reflects incoming solar radiation, thereby lowering surface temperatures. This paper analyzes a scenario in which SAI brings great harm on its own. The scenario is based on the issue of SAI intermittency, in which aerosol injection is halted, sending temperatures rapidly back toward where they would have been without SAI. The rapid temperature increase could be quite damaging, which in turn creates a strong incentive to avoid intermittency. In the scenario, a catastrophic societal collapse eliminates society’s ability to continue SAI, despite the incentive. The collapse could be caused by a pandemic, nuclear war, or other global catastrophe. The ensuing intermittency hits a population that is already vulnerable from the initial collapse, making for a double catastrophe. While the outcomes of the double catastrophe are difficult to predict, plausible worst-case scenarios include human extinction. The decision to implement SAI is found to depend on whether global catastrophe is more likely from double catastrophe or from climate change alone. -
Environmental Ethics.Syllabus Web
Environmental Ethics GPHI 6770, CRN 8456, Spring 2021 Thursdays 1:55 – 3:45 Professor Jay Bernstein, [email protected] Office Hours: Thursday 4:15–6:00 or by appointment Professor Alice Crary, [email protected] Office hours: W 2:45-3:45/Th 12:30-1:30 and by appointment Course Description This seminar will focus on the ongoing destruction of nature from anthropogenic planetary climate change. This catastrophe poses a problem for which traditional ethical theories have left us ill- prepared, and attempts at dealing with it in the form of “applied ethics” have proved unhelpful. A productive engagement needs to start from a willingness to radically rethink the categories that we use to describe this historical moment and the resources we have to respond to it meaningfully. We will talk about how climate crisis has challenged not only engrained metaphysical understandings of the relation between nature and culture but also received understandings of moral notions such as justice, responsibility and blame. We will also consider how it brings into question familiar conceptions of political institutions such as markets, property, states. We will attempt this kind of transformative approach to climate crisis by reading widely—and in a fully interdisciplinary manner —in the literature. Seminar topics will include the Anthropocene, ecocide, ecofeminism, environmentalism and animal ethics, anthropocentric/biocentric/ecocentric environmental ethics, responsibility (i.e., who is responsible for change?), global justice, justice vis-a-vis future -
The Demographic Challenge: Myths and Realities
The Demographic Challenge: Myths and Realities NOTE JULY 2018 The Demographic Challenge: Myths and Realities NOTE - JULY 2018 “There are three important things in history: first, numbers; second, numbers; and third, numbers.1” 1 The Decline of the American Empire, film by Denys Arcand, 1986. CONTENTS Introduction .......................................................................................... 5 I. A turning point in human history ................................................... 8 II. Towards a new hierarchy of powers ................................................. 21 III. A lack of resources? .................................................................... 28 IV. A “crescent of crisis” around Europe .............................................. 35 V. Are migrations unavoidable? ....................................................... 40 VI. Eurasia: the societal challenge ..................................................... 57 Conclusion ........................................................................................ 68 3 THE DEMOGRAPHIC CHALLENGE: MYTHS AND REALITIES 4 INTRODUCTION The demographic challenge is not what it used to be. In the early 1980s, the “population explosion” was the main focus of discussion. Since then, all our references have been shaken. The developing countries’ entry into demographic modernity occurred earlier than expected, but the future growth of Africa’s population was revised upwards. Industrialized countries’ aging has become a growing concern, and America seems to be the only -
Politics2021
politics 2021 new and recent titles I polity Page 7 Page 13 Page 13 Page 3 Page 11 Page 7 Page 51 Page 2 Page 6 CONTENTS Ordering details General Politics ............................................ 2 Books can be ordered through our website www.politybooks.com or via: Customer Care Center, John Wiley & Sons Inc. Introductory Texts ....................................... 16 9200 KEYSTONE Crossing STE 800 INDIANAPOLIS, IN 46209-4087 Toll-Free: (877) 762-2974 Fax: (877) 597-3299 Global and Comparative Politics .................. 18 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. European Distribution Centre, New Era Estate, Oldlands Way, Environmental Politics ................................. 19 Bognor Regis, WEST SUSSEX. PO22 9NQ, UK Freephone (UK only): 0800 243407 Overseas callers: +44 1243 843291 Political Economy ....................................... 22 Fax: +44 (0) 1243 843302 Email: [email protected] For Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Luxembourg and Liechtenstein: War and International Security ..................... 28 Phone: +49 6201 606152 Fax: +49 6201 606184 Email: [email protected] Conflict Resolution and Peacebuilding .......... 29 For Australia, New Zealand and Pacific Islands: Toll-free within Australia: 1800 777 474 Toll-free with New Zealand: 0800 448 200 Phone: +61 7 33548455 Development and and Human Rights ............ 30 UK and European Politics ............................ 31 Inspection Copies Most paperback editions featured in this catalogue are Russian Politics ........................................... 32 available for inspection. A maximum of three books may be considered for relevant courses with at least 12 students. A reply form must be returned to this effect. Middle Eastern Politics ................................ 33 Phone (US & Canada): (800) 225-5945 Email: ccopy@wiley,com Freephone (UK only): 0800 243407 Email: [email protected] Phone (Rest of World): +44 1243 843294 Asian Politics ............................................. -
The Future of Mind Health and Well-Being
The Future of Mind Health and Well-being THE AXA 2020 FORESIGHT REPORT 2 3 Foreword One out of five people in the world today experiences a mental disorder in any given year. Foreword 03 Mind Health issues can affect anyone, regardless of age, race and economic or social class, and most of us will be affected at some point in our lives, indirectly if not directly. Given the ageing of populations in most regions of the globe and the higher incidence of mental health Introduction 04 disorders in people who suffer from chronic disease, mental health issues are likely to rise. Moreover, almost 50% of mental illnesses begin at an early age, thus affecting youth and hav- ing potentially devastating outcomes on lives at a stage where diagnosis is still weak. Women, 1. Health and the mind 07 who play a predominant role in caregiving both for the elderly and children and often head single-parent families, seem to have a higher and more persistent prevalence of depression and anxiety. Clearly, mental health is a public health, economic and societal issue. Despite 2. Towards tech-driven solutions 21 this, it still goes largely undiagnosed, and patients appear reluctant to seek professional help because of the stigma associated with these disorders. Indeed, mental health is only recently gaining traction and being put on the agenda. 3. Environment : As a responsible global insurer and a major private sector player, AXA has multiple roles to the roots of new disorders 35 play in the mental health area. Firstly, by helping to shed light on the issues surrounding men- tal health, raising awareness to better plan prevention and treatment strategies, particularly in areas where cures exist yet are not applied because of poor or tardy diagnosis. -
Yves Citton Collapsology As the Horizon
« Collapsology as the Horizon », Electra, n° 9, 2020, p. 87-104. Yves Citton Collapsology as the Horizon At the time of writing, the part of the European continent identified as ‘France’ is experiencing a massive strike against the (umpteenth) ‘pension reform’, paralyzing part of its transport (SNCF, RATP), its media (Radio France), its hospitals, its schools, its universities. As I am finishing this first sentence, one of the cats who share my living space has gone to perch on the roof of a garage in front of my window, where he has sat down to contemplate what is happening in the street. At the turn of the 2020s, the obstructions and setbacks experienced at the last COP 24 and 25 meetings seem to steer the prospects for global warming closer to an average 4°C increase than to the 2°C initially set as an absolute ceiling. These three temporalities coexist in my experience of the world, without really articulating with each other. It would be absurd to say that ‘everything is speeding up’ (my travel time around the Paris region has increased considerably over the last few days) or that ‘the world is in crisis’ (my cat seems to be watching the street with a serene eye). What is the point of trying to hold a general discourse on speed, acceleration, crisis, and collapse, when the levels of reality, the scales of magnitude, and the rhythms of life and death of individual beings as well as of social formations are so heterogeneous and incomparable? If ‘Anthropocene’—a rather unfortunate term, to be modulated in Capitalocene, Eurocene, Androcene, Plantationocene—means anything, it is that the way in which humans represent their small worlds contributes decisively to the material evolution of the living environments that all the inhabitants of planet Earth must share.