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The Insurance Industry and Climate Change: a Story of Resilience and Collapse

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The Insurance Industry and Climate Change: a Story of Resilience and Collapse Master of Arts in Foundations and Practices of Sustainability The insurance industry and climate change: A story of resilience and collapse Johann Hartmann Under the direction of Dr. M.E.R.S. Swaton Title page image reference: https://www.insuranceeurope.eu/climate-change « Ce travail n’a pas été rédigé en vue d’une publication, d’une édition ou diffusion. Son format et tout ou partie de son contenu répondent donc à cet état de fait. Les contenus n’engagent pas l’Université de Lausanne. Ce travail n’en est pas moins soumis aux règles sur le droit d’auteur. A ce titre, les citations tirées du présent mémoire ne sont autorisées que dans la mesure où la source et le nom de l’auteur·e sont clairement cités. La loi fédérale sur le droit d’auteur est en outre applicable. » 2 GSE – UNIL | Mémoire de Master en fondements et pratiques de la durabilité “It seems that there may not be a happy end to my story of The Five Stages of Collapse, the first of which (financial, commercial, political) are inevitable, while the last two (social, cultural) are entirely optional but have, alas, already run the course in many parts of the world. Because you see, there is also the sixth stage which I have previously neglected to mention – Environmental Collapse – at the end of which we are left without a home, having rendered Earth (our home planet) uninhabitable.” Dmitry Orlov, The Sixth Stage of Collapse, 2013. 3 GSE – UNIL | Mémoire de Master en fondements et pratiques de la durabilité Acknowledgements Through these lines, I would like to express my gratitude to all the people who contributed to this work, whether through their advice or encouragements. More specifically, I would like to warmly thank my thesis director Sophie Swaton for her precious time, suggestions and advice. I would also like to thank Erwan and Roger Hartmann for their valuable assistance in explaining the labyrinth of financial terminology. Finally, a very special thank you to my wife Veronika Vajdova for her editorial work and the countless hours spent re-reading this document, as well as to my lovely baby Damian for letting me work during his naps. 4 GSE – UNIL | Mémoire de Master en fondements et pratiques de la durabilité English title The insurance industry and climate change: A story of resilience and collapse Abstract The insurance industry’s central role in assessing current and future risks faced by, what is commonly referred to as, the modern thermo-industrial civilization makes it a crucial player when discussing one of the major issues faced by humankind: climate change. Accordingly, this thesis proposes an exhaustive analysis of the industry’s core resilience when confronted by such dramatic modifications within the Earth’s systems. In order to do so, this paper begins by proposing a detailed examination of the industry’s business model, its close relationship to global warming, as well as a detailed review of the existing adaptation and mitigation actions undertook by (re)insurances (Chapter 1). Subsequently, the document deep dives into a theoretical stress test of the sector’s resilience toward, what this paper describes as, a credible “catastrophic” scenario. This scenario refers to a situation where the RCP 8.5 path is coupled with a financial/economic crisis resembling the 2007-08 event and demonstrates the insurance sector’s difficulties in displaying any type of resilience. In addition, this paper proposes a philosophical analysis of the terminology and tools used by the insurance industry, such as the notion of risk or modeling (e.g., Climate, Financial, etc.), to disclose a certain irrelevance of these tools when discussing the global and profound damages caused by climate change. Further examination of this subject through the eyes of what Pablo Servigne refer to as Collapsology offers an unusual overview of the insurance sector’s activities and reactions when facing a civilization collapse. The strong correlation that exists between environmental mismanagement and civilization failure is further highlighted by the study of earlier civilization collapses such as the Maya people and the Anasazi Indians, thus attesting to the possibility of such a drastic fate for any complex civilization. A further case study of our globalized and interconnected thermo-industrial civilization outlines the extreme difficulties encountered by the existing insurance industry’s business model in such a collapse process (Chapter 2). Finally, a conclusive chapter contributes to opening a discussion regarding the insurance industry’s future societal roles and proposes three main pillars aimed at easing this sector’s voyage through a collapsing world (Chapter 3). Keywords: Insurance industry, Climate Change, Societal Collapse. 5 GSE – UNIL | Mémoire de Master en fondements et pratiques de la durabilité Titre français L’industrie de l’assurance et le changement climatique: Une histoire de résilience et d’effondrement. Résumé Le rôle central de l’industrie de l’assurance dans l’évaluation des risques actuels et futurs de la civilisation dite thermo-industrielle, en fait un acteur essentiel dans le débat sur l’une des problématiques majeures de l’humanité: le changement climatique. En conséquence, ce mémoire propose une analyse exhaustive de la résilience de cette industrie face à de telles modifications drastiques du Système Terre. Pour ce faire, ce document débute par une étude détaillée du modèle économique du secteur de la (re)assurance, de ses liens étroits avec le réchauffement planétaire, ainsi qu'une revue des mesures d'adaptation et d'atténuation existantes (Chapitre 1). Par la suite, ce papier propose un test de résistance (stress test) théorique de la résilience du secteur vis-à-vis de ce que ce mémoire décrit comme un scénario «catastrophique» crédible. Ce scénario fait référence à une situation dans laquelle le scénario climatique RCP 8.5 est associé à une crise financière/économique similaire à celle de 2007- 08 et démontre ainsi très clairement les difficultés du secteur de l’assurance à faire preuve de résilience face à un tel bouleversement. En outre, ce document propose une analyse philosophique de la terminologie et des outils utilisés par ce secteur, tels que la notion de risque ou la modélisation, révélant ainsi un manque de pertinence de ces outils face aux dommages globaux et profonds causés par le changement climatique. Un examen plus approfondi de ce sujet à travers les lunettes, de ce que Pablo Servigne nomme Collapsologie, offre un aperçu hors du commun des activités et des réactions du secteur des assurances face à un effondrement de civilisation. Ainsi, la forte corrélation existant entre la mauvaise gestion environnementale et le collapse de certaines civilisations est mise en évidence par l’étude de cas historiques tels que les Mayas et les Indiens Anasazi, attestant ainsi de la possibilité d’un tel destin pour toute civilisation complexe dont la nôtre. En effet, l’étude de cas du possible effondrement de notre civilisation thermo-industrielle, globalisée et interconnectée, met en évidence les difficultés majeures rencontrées par le secteur de la finance ainsi que par le modèle économique du secteur des assurances lors d’un tel développement (chapitre 2). Finalement, un chapitre conclusif contribue à ouvrir le débat sur le futur rôle sociétal de l’industrie de l’assurance et propose ainsi trois grands piliers visant à faciliter le voyage de ce secteur dans un monde en collapse (Chapitre 3). Mots clefs: Industries de l’assurance, changement climatique, effondrement sociétal. 6 GSE – UNIL | Mémoire de Master en fondements et pratiques de la durabilité Abbreviations D&O Directors and Officers liability insurance ECB European Central Bank EIOPA European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority ESG Environmental, Social and Governance (Issues) EU ETS European Union Emissions trading system Fed Federal Reserve Bank (U.S.) FSB Financial Stability Board GDP Gross Domestic Product GHG Greenhouse Gas IAIS International Association of Insurance Supervisors IISD International Institute for Sustainable Development ILO International Labor Organisation ILS Insurance Linked Securities/Strategies IMF International Monetary Fund IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change L&H Life and Health (re)insurance OECD Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development P&C Property and Casualty (re)insurance PPP Public-Private Partnership RCP Representative Concentration Pathways SPV Special Purpose Vehicle UNDRR United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction UNEP FI United Nations Environment Programme Finance Initiative UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change WHO World Health Organization 7 GSE – UNIL | Mémoire de Master en fondements et pratiques de la durabilité Table of Contents Introduction ............................................................................................................................ 10 1. Setting the Scene: The insurance industry and climate change ................................. 14 1.1. The Insurance Industry: a complex business model ................................................... 14 1.1.1. Traditional (re)insurance: Risk pooling and basic claim structure ...................... 14 1.1.2. The roles and weight of the insurance industry ................................................... 17 1.1.3. Insurance regulations and the role of the State .................................................... 18 1.1.4. Capital markets: The tip of the pyramid .............................................................
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