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Newsletter 2020 No.18 Update:2020/09/25

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Newsletter 2020 No.18 Update:2020/09/25 Newsletter No.18 September 22, 2020 Prospects & Perspectives Suga, as Abe’s longtime chief cabinet secretary, has been seen as the best candidate to continue Abe’s policies and his election as Prime Minister is supported by large military factions, such as the Aso faction and Nikai faction. Picture source: Prime Minister of Japan and His Cabnet, Prime Minister of Japan and His Cabnet, <https://www.kantei.go.jp/cn/99_suga/actions/202009/_00001.html>. An Analysis of the Influence of the Successor of Japanese Prime Minister on Japan’s Diplomacy By Ming-juinn Li J apan prime minister, Shinzo Abe, has stepped down because of poor Newsletter No.18 September 22, 2020 health which has been caused by a re-occurence of ulcerative colitis. Abe’s unexpected resignation triggered a leadership race in the LDP. Under Japan's parliamentary system, the new leader must be formally elected by the LDP’s presidential election and then be elected to prime minister by the parliament The Chief Cabinet Secretary, Yoshihide Suga, was duly elected new Prime Minister. This essay will analyze the foreign policy of Suga and how the action the government of Taiwan can take action in response. Yoshihide Suga is Conservative and Continues the Abe Route Abe has stepped down around year before his term expired, so the new Prime Minister will only serve for a year, but Japanese society is afraid it will leave the government in a power vacuum and hopes Abe’s successor can maintain political stability and continuity. Suga, as Abe’s longtime chief cabinet secretary, has been seen as the best candidate to continue Abe’s policies and his election as Prime Minister is supported by large military factions, such as the Aso faction and Nikai faction. Although Suga criticized China's implementation of the national security law in Hong Kong, he has not taken a clear stand on China. In terms of currently existing factions in the LDP, Suga is the right man to lead Japan, who will not affect factions’ interests at all and can maintain the balance between pro-China and pro-US forces. He will continue Abe’s policy policy orientation to keep chaos at bay. China has laid out a plan to make China a Great Power and has the intention to match US military power by around 2050. It is believed that China will invade Taiwan after Beijing’s suppression of Hong Kong. In response to China's increased military activity in East Asian, the US has enhanced military capabilities and has deepened security ties with Japan. However, the US has called for increased military burden-sharing, which has made Japan overburdened. Suga may be challenged in October 2021 by the other main contender this time, the former defense minister, Shigeru Ishiba. If Ishiba becomes prime minister, it will have a greater impact on Japanese diplomacy. Ishiba served as secretary-general of the Liberal Democratic Party when Abe formed the cabinet in 2012, but left the cabinet in the 2016 reshuffle. Newsletter No.18 September 22, 2020 Ishiba is known as a pro-Chinese politician. In July 2020, because of the Hong Kong protests, Ishiba clearly opposed a group of LDP lawmakers who had urged Abe to consider withdrawing an invitation to Chinese President Xi Jinping state visit to Japan and Ishiba even expressed pro-Chinese opinions in public. Ishiba’s political inclination, however, is not so much pro-China as an advocacy of Japan’s independence. How Taiwan Can Respond Ever since Abe’s second ascent to the position of prime minister, Japan’s relations with Taiwan — which do not have formal diplomatic ties — have continued to deepen to a surprising degree. However, there are still variables in the relationship between Japan and Taiwan. There are two foreign diplomacy factions in Japan. The right-wing nationalists, or Japanese who agree with Taiwan’s democracy and like Taiwan’s goodwill, are affirming support for Taiwan, while the other faction is the Japanese zaibatsu, which has been seen as a strong pro-china force. Nikai is a pro-China politician. Therefore, Suga has to maintain the current Japan-China relationship to gain the support of the Nikai faction. The economy has a considerable impact on the political world in Japan, therefore, it is important that Taiwan strengthens its economic and trade cooperation with Japan. One of the best ways is to sign a free trade agreement. It should be noted that because of the outbreak of the coronavirus, the pace of growth in Japan is expected to decline significantly, and in addition, the Hong Kong protests has led to decrease in the power of the pro-China faction and an increase in the power of the right-wing in Japan. Therefore, Taiwan should take advantage of this opportunity to enhance Taiwan-Japan relations. Suga will hold the post until the end of Abe's term in October next year. As the new prime minister, Suga has to overcome a range of complicated challenges, such as an economic recession caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Although Suga has pledged that the economy and the coronavirus are top priorities, as well as maintaining diplomatic relations with China and US, but his political and diplomatic power is unknown. Newsletter No.18 September 22, 2020 Nobuo Kishi, the younger brother of the former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, has been appointed as the new defense minister, and he is pro-Taiwan politician, so it is believed that Kishi will adopt a friendly attitude toward Taiwan. In addition, the next likely successor may be a middle-aged member of LDP party, but someone who will not as globally influential as Abe. In this situation, Japan’s voice in global affairs will decrease, and since there are growing tensions between China and the US, Japan will stop Abe’s “Diplomacy that takes a panoramic perspective of the world map” approach to foreign policy. (Dr. Li is Secretary general, Taiwanese Society of North-East Asia) Editor’s Note: The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the policy or the position of the Prospect Foundation. The Prospect Foundation is an independent research institution dedicated to the study of cross-Strait relations and international issues. The Foundation maintains active exchanges and communications with many think tanks of the world. Prospect Foundation No.1, Lane 60, Sec. 3, Tingzhou Rd., Zhongzheng District Taipei City, 10087, Republic of China (Taiwan) Tel: 886-2-23654366 Fax: 886-2-23679193 http://www.pf.org.tw .
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