12 Cities Assessment Resilience Insight
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RESILIENCE INSIGHT 12 CITIES ASSESSMENT FEBRUARY 2016 RESILIENCE INSIGHT CONTENTS 1 Foreword 3 2 Executive Summary 4 3 Acknowledgements 6 4 Introduction 8 5 A Background to Resilience 9 6 BuroHappold Resilience Process Overview 14 7 Resilience Diagnostic Approach 16 8 12 Cities Comparison Assesment 28 9 Three Cities Case Studies 33 10 Conclusion 53 Appendix A Definition of 12 Components of Resilience Framework 54 Appendix B Exposure Factors 56 Glossary 57 2 12 Cities Assessment revision 01 BUROHAPPOLD ENGINEERING 1 FOREWORD Forword by Guy Hammersley, Executive The importance of the resilience agenda Director, BRE led to the creation of the BRE Centre for Resilience to act as a national and There is a growing realisation in both ultimately global resource for government, government and private sectors that cities local authorities, industry, universities and across the globe are facing unprecedented the public to support the goal of creating challenges from social, technological, a resilient built environment. This has been environmental, economic and political underpinned by the BRE Trust establishing changes. As a consequence there is an a thematic research programme on a urgent need to help cities implement “resilient built environment” to support policies, systems and solutions to build exciting and relevant research and resilience for the future. This involves innovation built on good science. In this being able to better resist stress from both capacity the BRE Trust was delighted to be short term shocks and long term change, able to make an award to BuroHappold, in as well as improving the city’s capacity partnership with the Worshipful Company to bounce back rapidly from impacts. of Constructors, to support their much The consequences of climate change are needed work on a city resilience diagnostic recognised world-wide and have been framework. Beneficial change requires highlighted in the UK by recent extreme a robust understanding of the issues, weather and flooding events, putting it metrics based on sound science and high on the political agenda. However, engagement with stakeholders, all things there are many other facets to resilience that the BuroHappold framework sets out such as population growth, urbanisation, to achieve. The BRE Trust and Worshipful energy security, resource depletion, Company of Constructors is now pleased crime and security, all with complex to be able to publish the outcome of this interdependencies. valuable work through the BRE Centre for Resilience. Copyright © 1976-2016 BuroHappold Engineering. All Rights Reserved 3 RESILIENCE INSIGHT 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY CONTEXT The objective of the framework is to This diagnostic methodology identifies support international disaster reduction and prioritises those parts of a city facing Cities have become the prevalent living priorities such as the Sendai Framework gaps in resilience and predicts how this environment for the world’s population. for Disaster Risk Reduction by providing a will change in the future based on trend Since the beginning of civilisation the simple framework and tool to understand, data. By being able to measure resilience, freedom, opportunity, society, stability measure and manage resilience. This will; city authorities can understand and and security provided by cities have drawn manage their city’s resilience and build ever greater numbers of people. In 2007 (1) assist municipal authorities and other business cases to meet future resilience this growth reached the point where over key private/public sector stakeholders challenges. half the world’s population was living in assessing their current and future in cities rather than rural communities resilience demands and capacities, FINDINGS and this is anticipated to grow by an allowing the development of business From interviews and previous experience extra 2 billion people (70% of the World’s cases for investment in resilience building; working with cities we found there is a population) by 2050. (2) gain a holistic understanding of each tendency for cities to approach resilience The impacts of climate change pose city component’s resilience and their in a siloed way without prioritising a disproportionate threat to our cities interrelationships and; initiatives systematically. Often the major focus is the last disaster, for example because of their location, (generally (3) prioritise and measure the performance flooding, when in fact, the city may be less near the coast (sea level rise) or on river of policies and interventions that would prepared for a more urgent risk such as an crossings and deltas), high resource improve the city’s resilience. demands particularly in term of fresh epidemic. All parts of a city are dependent water and the concentration of people METHODOLOGY on one another and any shock to a city, even if it only directly impact one aspect, and assets. Other strategic challenges As part of the validation process will have ripple effects throughout. It is such as aging demographics; the growth BuroHappold assessed 12 global cities for this reason that resilience needs to be of the middle class; a growth in obesity as case studies (Bristol, Detroit, Dhaka, viewed holistically, breaking down silos and diabetes; anti-microbial resistance Glasgow, Hong Kong, London, Manchester, and understanding interdependencies. and others are all adding stress to our city Miami, Mumbai, New York, Riyadh and Traditionally there has not been one systems and could cause some cities to fail Sao Paulo). The framework was used to entity that has an overview of all these with significant harm to their populations evaluate three of these cities (Bristol, areas and that is cited as the reason for and world stability. These factors will London and Sao Paulo) in further depth this lack of joined up thinking. However, also increase the impact and severity of at a component level. The results of in the UK with more powers moving to factors that can significantly shock our these in depth studies were validated city mayors (e.g. London, Bristol), this is city systems; such as flooding, drought, in stakeholder workshops with experts changing. The Rockefeller 100 Resilient desertification, disease migration, mass from each city. The feedback from each Cities Program has introduced the concept migration, armed conflict and terrorism. workshop then informed the development of Chief Resilience Officers (CROs) – a PURPOSE of the framework. person responsible for delivering resilience In response to this unprecedented level BuroHappold’s resilience framework strategies for the city - there is now an of crises affecting the world’s urban is unique in that, unlike many other opportunity to think differently and truly population, BuroHappold has developed a assessment tools, the methodology is understand and prioritise the many issues comprehensive framework for measuring risk-based and considers long term trends. facing our cities and develop holistic the resilience of cities to a broad spectrum Furthermore, interrelationships between solutions that benefit more than one issue of shocks and stresses; from the sudden shocks and stresses are mapped; for or group. impact of flooding to the longer term example, the affect of stresses such as process of urbanisation. BuroHappold globalisation or climate change on the were the recipient of the Royal Charter current and future intensity of shocks are International Research Award from the captured.. The methodology also measures BRE Trust and the Worshipful Company of the capability of a city to counteract Constructors which contributed funding these shocks and stresses through a to validate and test the framework on 12 combination of protective mitigations as global cities. well as adaptive, response and recovery measures (adaptive capacity). 4 12 Cities Assessment revision 01 BUROHAPPOLD ENGINEERING One of the key benefits noted when Out baseline assessment also enables us KEYWORDS implementing this approach with to take insight into the cost and benefit Resilience, Built environment, Framework, city leaders is that stakeholders are of different options and compare them City, Diagnostic, Prioritisation unified around a common vision. A with the cost of inaction of doing nothing. comprehensive resilience strategy will This informs the creation of business cases touch all aspects of a city and is therefore around possible programmes of activity. a great way to integrate a city and break Clients investing millions if not billions down these silos. We have found that into a development need to know their successful resilience strategies address investment is protected and the business multiple vulnerabilities and deliver case supporting that investment will benefits across a wide range of areas. remain pertinent for the necessary period They also require interventions that cross of repayment or for the development’s departmental barriers; strategy workshops lifetime. The risk management model being invaluable in successfully aligning that sets the scene for our resilience interests. This provides the co-benefits approach is focused on creating and of better collaboration and better protecting value; looking at the underlying understanding between departments assumptions upon which business which results in resilient solutions that models are based and understanding how maximise benefits across multiple strategic risk factors can both challenge agencies. these assumptions but also reveal Exploiting the capability of the Resilience previously unidentified