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Primary Election Profile California Election Day: Tuesday, March 3, 2020

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Primary Election Profile California Election Day: Tuesday, March 3, 2020 2020 PRIMARY ELECTION PROFILE CALIFORNIA ELECTION DAY: TUESDAY, MARCH 3, 2020 ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES: 55 TOTAL POPULATION (2018): LATINO POPULATION (2018): 39,557,045 15,540,142 Since 1992, California has been a Democratic state in Presidential contests, with the Democratic candidates’ margins of victory ranging from 10% to 30%. President George H.W. Bush was the last Republican to win the state in 1988. The Latino vote played a key role in California’s partisan shift towards generally electing Democratic Presidential and statewide candidates. For example, according to CNN exit poll data, in the 1998 U.S. Senate race where incumbent Senator Barbara Boxer (D) faced a challenge from then-State Treasurer Matt Fong (R), whites supported Fong over Boxer, by 50% to 46%. In contrast, Latinos supported Boxer over Fong by 72% to 23%. In the same election, whites favored gubernatorial candidate Gray Davis (D) over Dan Lungren (R) by a narrow 50% to 46% margin. In contrast, Latinos favored Davis over Lungren by 78% to 17%. Ultimately, both Boxer and Davis prevailed in their contests. 2020 The Latino role in California’s partisan re-alignment resulted in part from the harsh tone of the anti-immigrant rhetoric in the public dialogue in the mid-1990’s. The state enacted Proposition 187, which would have denied certain benefits and services to undocumented immigrants, and several federal anti-immigrant measures were enacted as well. Many California Latinos held Republicans responsible for these measures, and between 1996 and 1998, the state’s Latino lawful permanent residents naturalized and voted in record numbers. In 1994, the number of newly-naturalized U.S. citizens in California of Mexican origin totaled 14,824 and they comprised 16% of the state’s 90,279 new U.S. citizens.1 In 1996, the total number of newly-naturalized Californians reached 378,014, with 151,959 – or 40% - coming from Mexico. Similarly, in 2006 and 2007, the passage of H.R. 4437 by the House of Representatives, which would have criminalized undocumented presence in the United States, together with the failure of comprehensive immigration reform to move forward in Congress, helped mobilize Latinos in California and nationwide. Hundreds of thousands of Latinos took to the streets in the spring of 2006, culminating in a national day of boycott on May 1. In California, naturalizations again increased significantly, and the Mexican-origin share of new U.S citizens from the state doubled from 20% in 2004 to 40% in 2008. The number of newly-naturalized California citizens of Mexican origin in 2008 reached 118,062, the second highest number in the state’s history. In Election 2020, President Donald Trump (R) is likely to continue to make immigration policy and harsh enforcement efforts a key issue in his campaign, and the extent to which this dialogue affects Latino participation in California and nationwide is a trend which bears watching. In this connection, in 2018, the first midterm Congressional election after President Trump took office, the California Latino vote reached 3.3 million, nearly the double the 1.7 million turnout of Election 2014. The turnout rate of Latino voting-age citizens in California increased from 25% to 43% during the same period. According to polling firm Latino Decisions 2018 Election Eve poll, 74% of California Latinos disapproved of the job President Trump had been doing as President, and 82% believed that his statements and policies would cause a major setback to the progress made by Latinos. Ninety-three percent of California Latinos indicated that rhetoric attacking immigrants and the need for comprehensive immigration reform was an important reason to vote in the election. However, California Latinos also identified improving the economy, education, and access to health care as important issues facing their communities. In Election 2020, California Latinos will be carefully watching how candidates address the full range of issues that are important to all Americans when casting their ballots. With respect to primary contests, the Latino vote in California had a significant impact during California’s 2008 Democratic primary, where Latinos helped ensure that Hillary Clinton’s delegate count remained competitive with that of Barack Obama’s, and enabled her to remain a viable presence until the end of the primary season. According to CNN exit polls, among California’s white Democrats, Clinton’s margin of victory was extremely narrow, 46% to 45%. In contrast, the state’s Latino Democrats favored Clinton over Obama by 67% to 32%. 1 California’s Latino naturalized citizens also include immigrants from other countries in Latin America and the Caribbean, such as Colombians, Cubans, Dominicans, Ecuadorians, Salvadorans, and Guatemalans. Because the federal Office of Immigration Statistics does not provide comparable data for the naturalization of those immigrants in California for the years discussed in this Profile, our analysis focuses solely on the naturalization of Mexican lawful permanent residents. Moreover, while the community of Latino lawful permanent residents in California continues to become more diverse, the number of those from Mexico are still far greater than those from other countries in Latin America or the Caribbean. 2020 According to August 2019 voter file data, over half of California’s Latino registered voters are Democrats (53%) and they comprise nearly one-third (32%) of the state’s Democrats. California has the largest number of Democratic delegates to the Presidential nominating convention, and the Latino vote will be critical to the outcome of the state’s 2020 primary and the nomination process. U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES Several Latinos are running in California’s primary for the opportunity to pursue seats in the U.S. House of Representatives in the general election. Under California’s “top-two” primary system, candidates for Congressional seats, state legislative offices, and state constitutional offices are listed on the ballot with a political party preference or no party preference (NPP). However, only the two candidates receiving the most votes in the primary – regardless of party preference – move on to the general election. Thus, candidates from the same political party may face each other in the general election. All 14 of California’s incumbent Latino U.S. Representatives are running for re-election, and 12 are very likely to emerge victorious in the primary and general election: Democrats Pete Aguilar, Tony Cardenas, Lou Correa, Nanette Diaz Barragan, Grace Flores Napolitano, Jimmy Gomez, Mike Levin, Lucille Roybal-Allard, Raul Ruiz, Linda Sanchez, Norma Torres, and Juan Vargas. In the th 24 Congressional District, U.S. Rep. Salud Carbajal (D) will likely be involved in a somewhat more competitive contest in the general election because of challenger Andy Caldwell (R), a talk th show host and non-profit executive. In a rematch of his 2018 39 Congressional District race, U.S. Rep. Gil Cisneros (D) is facing a challenge from former State Assemblymember Young Kim (R). Between 2013 and 2018, this seat was held by a Republican, and Cisneros’ 2018 victory “flipped” the seat to the Democratic Party. Both parties have targeted this race, with Democrats hoping to hold the seat, and Republicans hoping to “flip it back.” Several Latinos are competitive primary contenders in their pursuit to unseat incumbents – these contenders will face tough races if they succeed in advancing to the general election. In th the 9 Congressional District, retired U.S. Marshal Tony Amador (R) is trying to unseat U.S. Rep. th Jay McNerney (D). In the 16 Congressional District, Fresno City Councilmember Esmeralda Soria (D) nd is challenging U.S. Rep. Jim Costa (D). In the 22 Congressional District, small business owner Phil Arballo (D) in a crowded field of Democratic contenders who are hope to face U.S. Rep. Devin Nunes (R) in the general election (Nunes will likely be one of the primary winners); Arballo’s competitors include nonprofit healthcare executive Bobby Blia tout (D) and th business owner Dary Rezvani (D). In the 28 Congressional District, neighborhood advocate rd Jennifer Ba rbosa (NPP) is challenging U.S. Rep. Adam Schiff (D). In the 43 Congressional District, small business owner Omar Navarro (R) is facing retired Navy sailor Joe Collins (R) and U.S. Rep. Maxine Waters (D). Latinos are also competitive primary contenders in several open seat Congressional contests. In th the 25 Congressional District race for the seat once held by U.S. Rep. Katie Hill (D), business executive Mike Garcia (R) is facing a crowded field of primary competitors which includes State Assemblymember Christy Smith (D), journalist Cenk Uygur (D), and former U.S. Rep. Steve Knight (R), who was defeated by Hill in 2018. Both parties are targeting the contest for this seat, with Democrats hoping to retain it, and Republicans hoping to regain it. 2020 In the 50th Congressional District, Latino business owner and educator Ammar Campa-Najjar (D) is also in a crowded field of primary contenders for the seat once held by U.S. Rep. Duncan Hunter (R). Campa-Najjar’s competitors include talk show host and activist Carl DeMaio (R), former U.S. Rep. Darrell Issa (R), and State Senator Brian Jones (R). In the 53rd Congressional District, San Diego City Council President Georgette Gomez (D) is pursuing the seat held by retiring U.S. Rep. Susan Davis (D). Gomez’s competitors include business owner and Marine Corps captain Janessa Goldbeck (D), and children’s advocate Sara Jacobs (D). SHARE OF TOTAL CALIFORNIA’S POPULATION POPULATION LATINO All Latinos 15,540,142 39% POPULATION: Latino Adults 10,857,219 36% Latino 7,863,415 30% 2018 Voting-Age Citizens CALIFORNIA’S Total Registered Voters 19,796,287 LATINO ELECTORATE Latino Registered Voters 5,245,781 Latino Share of More than one of every four 26% California registered voters (26%) Registered Voters is Latino.
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