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Home , Barbara Boxer, Carl DeMaio, Dan Lungren

2020 PRIMARY ELECTION PROFILE ELECTION DAY: TUESDAY, MARCH 3, 2020

ELECTORAL COLLEGE VOTES: 55

TOTAL POPULATION (2018): LATINO POPULATION (2018): 39,557,045 15,540,142

Since 1992, California has been a Democratic state in Presidential contests, with the Democratic candidates’ margins of victory ranging from 10% to 30%. President George H.W. Bush was the last Republican to win the state in 1988.

The Latino vote played a key role in California’s partisan shift towards generally electing Democratic Presidential and statewide candidates. For example, according to CNN exit poll data, in the 1998 U.S. Senate race where incumbent Senator (D) faced a challenge from then-State Treasurer (R), whites supported Fong over Boxer, by 50% to 46%. In contrast, Latinos supported Boxer over Fong by 72% to 23%. In the same election, whites favored gubernatorial candidate (D) over (R) by a narrow 50% to 46% margin. In contrast, Latinos favored Davis over Lungren by 78% to 17%. Ultimately, both Boxer and Davis prevailed in their contests. 2020

The Latino role in California’s partisan re-alignment resulted in part from the harsh tone of the anti-immigrant rhetoric in the public dialogue in the mid-1990’s. The state enacted Proposition 187, which would have denied certain benefits and services to undocumented immigrants, and several federal anti-immigrant measures were enacted as well. Many California Latinos held Republicans responsible for these measures, and between 1996 and 1998, the state’s Latino lawful permanent residents naturalized and voted in record numbers. In 1994, the number of newly-naturalized U.S. citizens in California of Mexican origin totaled 14,824 and they comprised 16% of the state’s 90,279 new U.S. citizens.1 In 1996, the total number of newly-naturalized Californians reached 378,014, with 151,959 – or 40% - coming from Mexico.

Similarly, in 2006 and 2007, the passage of H.R. 4437 by the House of Representatives, which would have criminalized undocumented presence in the , together with the failure of comprehensive immigration reform to move forward in Congress, helped mobilize Latinos in California and nationwide. Hundreds of thousands of Latinos took to the streets in the spring of 2006, culminating in a national day of boycott on May 1. In California, naturalizations again increased significantly, and the Mexican-origin share of new U.S citizens from the state doubled from 20% in 2004 to 40% in 2008. The number of newly-naturalized California citizens of Mexican origin in 2008 reached 118,062, the second highest number in the state’s history.

In Election 2020, President Donald Trump (R) is likely to continue to make immigration policy and harsh enforcement efforts a key issue in his campaign, and the extent to which this dialogue affects Latino participation in California and nationwide is a trend which bears watching. In this connection, in 2018, the first midterm Congressional election after President Trump took office, the California Latino vote reached 3.3 million, nearly the double the 1.7 million turnout of Election 2014. The turnout rate of Latino voting-age citizens in California increased from 25% to 43% during the same period. According to polling firm Latino Decisions 2018 Election Eve poll, 74% of California Latinos disapproved of the job President Trump had been doing as President, and 82% believed that his statements and policies would cause a major setback to the progress made by Latinos. Ninety-three percent of California Latinos indicated that rhetoric attacking immigrants and the need for comprehensive immigration reform was an important reason to vote in the election. However, California Latinos also identified improving the economy, education, and access to health care as important issues facing their communities. In Election 2020, California Latinos will be carefully watching how candidates address the full range of issues that are important to all Americans when casting their ballots.

With respect to primary contests, the Latino vote in California had a significant impact during California’s 2008 Democratic primary, where Latinos helped ensure that ’s delegate count remained competitive with that of ’s, and enabled her to remain a viable presence until the end of the primary season. According to CNN exit polls, among California’s white Democrats, Clinton’s margin of victory was extremely narrow, 46% to 45%. In contrast, the state’s Latino Democrats favored Clinton over Obama by 67% to 32%.

1 California’s Latino naturalized citizens also include immigrants from other countries in Latin America and the Caribbean, such as Colombians, Cubans, Dominicans, Ecuadorians, Salvadorans, and Guatemalans. Because the federal Office of Immigration Statistics does not provide comparable data for the naturalization of those immigrants in California for the years discussed in this Profile, our analysis focuses solely on the naturalization of Mexican lawful permanent residents. Moreover, while the community of Latino lawful permanent residents in California continues to become more diverse, the number of those from Mexico are still far greater than those from other countries in Latin America or the Caribbean. 2020

According to August 2019 voter file data, over half of California’s Latino registered voters are Democrats (53%) and they comprise nearly one-third (32%) of the state’s Democrats. California has the largest number of Democratic delegates to the Presidential nominating convention, and the Latino vote will be critical to the outcome of the state’s 2020 primary and the nomination process. U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES Several Latinos are running in California’s primary for the opportunity to pursue seats in the U.S. House of Representatives in the general election. Under California’s “top-two” primary system, candidates for Congressional seats, state legislative offices, and state constitutional offices are listed on the ballot with a political party preference or no party preference (NPP). However, only the two candidates receiving the most votes in the primary – regardless of party preference – move on to the general election. Thus, candidates from the same political party may face each other in the general election.

All 14 of California’s incumbent Latino U.S. Representatives are running for re-election, and 12 are very likely to emerge victorious in the primary and general election: Democrats , Tony Cardenas, Lou Correa, Nanette Diaz Barragan, Grace Flores Napolitano, Jimmy Gomez, Mike Levin, Lucille Roybal-Allard, , Linda Sanchez, , and . In the th 24 Congressional District, U.S. Rep. Salud Carbajal (D) will likely be involved in a somewhat more competitive contest in the general election because of challenger Andy Caldwell (R), a talk th show host and non-profit executive. In a rematch of his 2018 39 Congressional District race, U.S. Rep. Gil Cisneros (D) is facing a challenge from former State Assemblymember Young Kim (R). Between 2013 and 2018, this seat was held by a Republican, and Cisneros’ 2018 victory “flipped” the seat to the Democratic Party. Both parties have targeted this race, with Democrats hoping to hold the seat, and Republicans hoping to “flip it back.”

Several Latinos are competitive primary contenders in their pursuit to unseat incumbents – these contenders will face tough races if they succeed in advancing to the general election. In th the 9 Congressional District, retired U.S. Marshal Tony Amador (R) is trying to unseat U.S. Rep. th Jay McNerney (D). In the 16 Congressional District, Fresno City Councilmember Esmeralda Soria (D) nd is challenging U.S. Rep. (D). In the 22 Congressional District, small business owner Phil Arballo (D) in a crowded field of Democratic contenders who are hope to face U.S. Rep. (R) in the general election (Nunes will likely be one of the primary winners); Arballo’s competitors include nonprofit healthcare executive Bobby Blia tout (D) and th business owner Dary Rezvani (D). In the 28 Congressional District, neighborhood advocate rd Jennifer Ba rbosa (NPP) is challenging U.S. Rep. (D). In the 43 Congressional District, small business owner Omar Navarro (R) is facing retired Navy sailor Joe Collins (R) and U.S. Rep. (D).

Latinos are also competitive primary contenders in several open seat Congressional contests. In th the 25 Congressional District race for the seat once held by U.S. Rep. Katie Hill (D), business executive Mike Garcia (R) is facing a crowded field of primary competitors which includes State Assemblymember Christy Smith (D), journalist Cenk Uygur (D), and former U.S. Rep. Steve Knight (R), who was defeated by Hill in 2018. Both parties are targeting the contest for this seat, with Democrats hoping to retain it, and Republicans hoping to regain it. 2020

In the 50th Congressional District, Latino business owner and educator Ammar Campa-Najjar (D) is also in a crowded field of primary contenders for the seat once held by U.S. Rep. Duncan Hunter (R). Campa-Najjar’s competitors include talk show host and activist Carl DeMaio (R), former U.S. Rep. (R), and State Senator Brian Jones (R).

In the 53rd Congressional District, City Council President Georgette Gomez (D) is pursuing the seat held by retiring U.S. Rep. (D). Gomez’s competitors include business owner and Marine Corps captain Janessa Goldbeck (D), and children’s advocate Sara Jacobs (D).

SHARE OF TOTAL CALIFORNIA’S POPULATION POPULATION LATINO All Latinos 15,540,142 39% POPULATION: Latino Adults 10,857,219 36%

Latino 7,863,415 30% 2018 Voting-Age Citizens

CALIFORNIA’S LATINO Total Registered Voters 19,796,287 ELECTORATE Latino Registered Voters 5,245,781 Latino Share of More than one of every four 26% California registered voters (26%) Registered Voters is Latino. * as of August 2019 PARTY AFFILIATION 2020 Latinos are more likely to be Democrats than non-Latinos, with 53% of Latinos affiliating with the Democratic Party, compared to 44% of non-Latinos. Latinos are less likely to be Republicans than the non-Latino electorate, and slightly more likely not to be affiliated with either major political party. Less than one of every six Latino registered voters (13%) is Republican, compared to 24% of non-Latinos. More than one-third of Latinos (34%) are not affiliated with either major party, compared to 33% of non-Latinos.

LATINO NON-LATINO

Other Other 33% 34% Democrat Democrat 44% 53%

Republican Republican 13% 24%

AGE California’s Latino registered voters tend to be younger than non-Latinos, with 18-24-year-olds comprising 17% of registered Latinos, compared to 10% of non-Latinos. Similarly, 24% of Latino registered voters are 25-34-year-olds, compared to 18% of non-Latinos. In contrast, 48% of non-Latino registered voters are 50 and older, compared to 35% of Latinos. LATINO NON-LATINO

18-24 65+ 18-24 10% 14% 17% 65+ 23% 25-34 50-64 18% 21% 25-34 24% 50-64 25% 35-49 35-49 24% 25% 2020 VOTER TURNOUT

Latino voter turnout in California Presidential elections more than doubled from 1,597,000 in 2000 to 3,345,000 in 2016, an increase of 109%.

VOTING AGE CITIZENS REGISTERED VOTERS ACTUAL VOTERS

8,000,000 7,092,000 7,000,000 6,510,000

6,000,000 5,193,000

5,000,000 4,433,000 3,882,000 3,684,000 4,000,000 3,489,000 3,263,000

3,000,000 2,455,000 3,157,000 3,345,000 1,919,000 2,961,000 2,000,000 2,081,000 1,000,000 1,597,000 0 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 LATINOS IN CALIFORNIA ELECTED OFFICE In 2019, 1,640 Latinos served in elected office in California, with 97% serving at the local level, including county, municipal, school board, judicial and law enforcement, and special district officials.

LATINOS I N CALIFORNIA ELECTED OFFICE: 1996–2019

1996 2003 2009 2013 2019

U.S. Representatives 4 7 6 9 14

State Officials 0 1 0 0 5

State Legislators 14 27 27 26 29

Local Officials 675 952 1,263 1,330 1,592

TOTAL 693 987 1,296 1,365 1,640

For more information about the NALEO Educational Fund’s Election 2020 publications, please contact Dorian Caal at [email protected] or (213) 765-9450. 2020 SOURCES

NALEO Educational Fund, 2019 National Directory of Latino Elected Officials.

This report uses data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2018 American Community Survey (ACS), 1-year estimates. The ACS is conducted every year and is an on-going survey of a sample of the population which produces estimates of various population characteristics.

U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey (CPS), Voting and Registration in the Elections of November: 2000-2016. The CPS data used in this report and the survey from which they are derived are subject to certain limitations. First, actual voter turnout and registration may be overestimated by the CPS, because individuals may tend to over-report electoral participation. Additionally, the CPS is a national survey, and estimates derived for smaller sub-groups within the national population may be based on relatively small sample sizes. Consequently, the margin of error associated with estimates of voting and registration for these sub-groups is greater than the margin associated with the national population or larger population sub-groups.

NGP Voter Activation Network (VAN) voter file data, August 2019. VAN data are subject to certain limitations relating to the collection, entry, maintenance and analysis of voter file records. All estimates are of Registered Active Voters.

Latino Decisions, 2018 Election Eve poll, https://latinodecisions.com/polls-and-research/.