Bots and Botnets: Risks, Issues and Prevention
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EMEA MSSD The Journey, So Far: Trends, Graphs and Statistics Martin Overton, IBM UK 20th September 2007 | Author: Martin Overton © 2007 IBM Corporation EMEA MSSD Agenda . The ‘First’ IBM PC Virus . Statistics, 80’s . Statistics, 90’s . Statistics, 00’s . Malware Myth-busting . Putting it all Together . Conclusions . Questions The Journey, So Far: Trends, Graphs and Statistics | Martin Overton © 2007 IBM Corporation EMEA MSSD Disclaimer . Products or services mentioned in this presentation are included for information only. Products and/or services listed, mentioned or referenced in any way do not constitute any form of recommendation or endorsement by IBM or the presenter. All trademarks and copyrights are acknowledged. The Journey, So Far: Trends, Graphs and Statistics | Martin Overton © 2007 IBM Corporation EMEA MSSD Brain . The very first malware written for the IBM PC [and clones] used ‘stealth’ to hide its presence[1]: . Here is a short extract from the description of Brain from F-Secure explaining how the stealth function it used works: . “The Brain virus tries to hide from detection by hooking into INT 13. When an attempt is made to read an infected boot sector, Brain will just show you the original boot sector instead. This means that if you look at the boot sector using DEBUG or any similar program, everything will look normal, if the virus is active in memory. This means the virus is the first "stealth" virus as well.” [1] Source : http://www.research.ibm.com/antivirus/timeline.htm [2] More data can be found here : http://www.f-secure.com/v-descs/brain.shtml The Journey, So Far: Trends, Graphs and Statistics | Martin Overton © 2007 IBM Corporation EMEA MSSD Virus Growth - Running Total (80s by year: actual) 50 Known Total Number 25 of Viruses 0 198 19 198 19 87 89 6 8 Year The Journey, So Far: Trends, Graphs and Statistics | Martin Overton © 2007 IBM Corporation EMEA MSSD Virus Growth (Actual) (80s by year: actual) 18 16 14 12 Number 10 of new Viruses 8 6 4 2 0 1 1 1 1 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 8 9 6 Year The Journey, So Far: Trends, Graphs and Statistics | Martin Overton © 2007 IBM Corporation EMEA MSSD Quote: “Viruses are an 'Urban Myth', just like the alligators said to inhabit the sewers of New York.” Peter Norton 1988 The Journey, So Far: Trends, Graphs and Statistics | Martin Overton © 2007 IBM Corporation EMEA MSSD Virus Growth - Running Total (90s by year: actual and predicted) Thousands 50 Known 45 Predicted 40 35 Total 30 Number 25 of Viruses 20 15 10 5 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 1 2 5 6 9 0 3 4 7 8 Year The Journey, So Far: Trends, Graphs and Statistics | Martin Overton © 2007 IBM Corporation EMEA MSSD Virus Growth (Actual) (90s by year: actual and predicted) 25000 Known Predicted 20000 Number 15000 of new Viruses 10000 5000 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 1 8 9 Year The Journey, So Far: Trends, Graphs and Statistics | Martin Overton © 2007 IBM Corporation EMEA MSSD Virus Payload Animations The Journey, So Far: Trends, Graphs and Statistics | Martin Overton © 2007 IBM Corporation EMEA MSSD Virus Growth - Running Total (00s by year: actual and predicted) Thousands 350 Known 300 Predicted 250 Total Number 200 of 150 Viruses 100 50 0 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 5 7 0 3 6 Year The Journey, So Far: Trends, Graphs and Statistics | Martin Overton © 2007 IBM Corporation EMEA MSSD Virus Growth (Actual) (00s by year: actual and predicted) 140000 Known 120000 Predicted 100000 Number 80000 of new Viruses 60000 40000 20000 0 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 7 6 Year The Journey, So Far: Trends, Graphs and Statistics | Martin Overton © 2007 IBM Corporation EMEA MSSD Other Virus Screenshots The Journey, So Far: Trends, Graphs and Statistics | Martin Overton © 2007 IBM Corporation EMEA MSSD Swen The Journey, So Far: Trends, Graphs and Statistics | Martin Overton © 2007 IBM Corporation EMEA MSSD WormCharmer Statistics, 2003-2007 14000 12000 10000 2003 8000 2004 2005 6000 2006 4000 2007 2000 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec The Journey, So Far: Trends, Graphs and Statistics | Martin Overton © 2007 IBM Corporation EMEA MSSD Malware Myth-busting . Concept [aka ‘Prank’] was the first macro virus . Malware extortion started with GPCode . Apple malware appeared after IBM PC DOS malware . Mainframes can’t be infected . *NIX worms appeared after Wintel worms The Journey, So Far: Trends, Graphs and Statistics | Martin Overton © 2007 IBM Corporation EMEA MSSD Concept [aka ‘Prank’] was the first macro virus The Journey, So Far: Trends, Graphs and Statistics | Martin Overton © 2007 IBM Corporation EMEA MSSD Malware extortion started with GPCode The Journey, So Far: Trends, Graphs and Statistics | Martin Overton © 2007 IBM Corporation EMEA MSSD AIDS Disk The Journey, So Far: Trends, Graphs and Statistics | Martin Overton © 2007 IBM Corporation EMEA MSSD Apple malware appeared after IBM PC DOS malware The Journey, So Far: Trends, Graphs and Statistics | Martin Overton © 2007 IBM Corporation EMEA MSSD Mainframes can’t be infected The Journey, So Far: Trends, Graphs and Statistics | Martin Overton © 2007 IBM Corporation EMEA MSSD *NIX worms appeared after Wintel worms The Journey, So Far: Trends, Graphs and Statistics | Martin Overton © 2007 IBM Corporation EMEA MSSD Putting it all Together – The Big Picture The Journey, So Far: Trends, Graphs and Statistics | Martin Overton © 2007 IBM Corporation EMEA MSSD Virus Growth - Running Total (by year: actual and predicted) Thousands Known 350 300 Predicted 250 Total Number 200 of 150 Viruses 100 50 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 3 6 9 0 3 6 7 7 8 9 0 1 2 4 5 7 8 1 2 4 5 Year The Journey, So Far: Trends, Graphs and Statistics | Martin Overton © 2007 IBM Corporation EMEA MSSD Virus Growth (Actual) (by year: actual and predicted) 140000 Known 120000 Predicted 100000 Number 80000 of new Viruses 60000 40000 20000 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 9 9 0 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 7 8 9 0 2 3 4 5 6 9 0 1 4 5 6 6 1 7 8 2 3 7 Year The Journey, So Far: Trends, Graphs and Statistics | Martin Overton © 2007 IBM Corporation EMEA MSSD Viruses in the wild 1995-2005 Source: Virus Bulletin 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Jan Se M Ja S M J Sep M Jan Se M Ja S M J Sep ep an- ep an- a a ay ay ay p n- p n- y- y- - - - - - - - - - - - 9 0 0 9 9 0 9 9 0 0 97 03 5 5 7 9 9 1 1 3 5 5 File Boot Multi Macro Script The Journey, So Far: Trends, Graphs and Statistics | Martin Overton © 2007 IBM Corporation EMEA MSSD The Changing Face of the Threat . It was easy when everything was a . Now viruses are just one category of Malware virus… … File infectors Viruses Worms Boot infectors Trojans Multipartile (File/Boot) Backdoors Macro Bots, Zombies Script Adware Spyware Blended Threats Applications, Security/Hacking Tools Key loggers Rootkits The Journey, So Far: Trends, Graphs and Statistics | Martin Overton © 2007 IBM Corporation EMEA MSSD Conclusions . 1986 until early nineties they were the almost exclusive domain of the DOS COM, EXE file infectors and boot viruses. They became more complex and stealthy as the years passed. We also saw viruses that would attack or disable anti-virus defences. 1995-2000 Macro viruses were King, slowly spreading at first, as people exchanged infected .doc/.xls files via floppy, CD or e-mail. Later examples would be able to propagate via e-mail by reading the Outlook or Windows address book, but only after a recipient had opened the infected attachment. 2000-2003 saw Script viruses steal the crown from Macro viruses, and we also started to see 32 bit PE files becoming dominant; multi-component malware started to appear. A large proportion of malware started to use vulnerabilities in both the OS and applications. 2004 to the start of 2005, the mass-mailing worms were the Kings; resulting in many overloaded mail servers and worn-out anti-virus researchers and corporate security staff. 2005-2007 and the new Kings, were BOTs, Trojans and Spyware. Phishing grew from almost nowhere to one of the biggest security risks, aside from malware.