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Iraq Index Tracking Variables of Reconstruction & Security in Post-Saddam Iraq

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Iraq Index Tracking Variables of Reconstruction & Security in Post-Saddam Iraq THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION 1775 Massachusetts Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20036-2188 Tel: 202-797-6000 Fax: 202-797-6004 www.brookin gs.edu Iraq Index Tracking Variables of Reconstruction & Security in Post-Saddam Iraq www.brookings.edu/iraqindex March 29, 2007 For full source information for entries other than the current month, please see the Iraq Index archives at www.brookings.edu/fp/saban/iraq/indexarchive.htm Michael E. O’Hanlon Jason H. Campbell For more information please contact Jason Campbell at [email protected] TABLE OF CONTENTS Tracking the Surge Page U.S. Troops Committed to the Surge……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..4 Number of New U.S. Troops Deployed to Baghdad……………………………………………………………………………………………………………..4 Iraqi Troops in Baghdad: Actual Number Reported for Duty as a Percentage of Proper Battalion Strength……………………………………………...5 Number of Patrols Carried Out by U.S. and Iraqi Forces (Per Week)…………………………………………………………………………………………5 Number of Joint Security Stations Established by U.S. and Iraqi Forces in Baghdad………………………………………………………………………..6 Number of Internally Displaced Families Who Have Returned to Baghdad as a Result of Operation Fardh al-Qanoon………………………………….6 Effects of Operation Fardh al-Qanoon on Areas Outside of Baghdad and al-Anbar Provinces……………………………………………………………...6 Security Indicators U.S. Troop Fatalities since March 2003…….………………………………………………..………………….………………………………………..….……7 Cause of Death for US Troops…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….8 American Military Fatalities by Category………………………………………………………………….….…………………………………..…….……….9 U.S. Troops Wounded in Action since March 2003……………………………..…………….……………………………….……………………….………..9 British Military Fatalities since March 2003………………………………….……………….…………………….................................................................10 Non-U.S. & U.K. Coalition Military Fatalities since March, 2003……………..….…………………….……………………….……………………………10 Non-U.S. & U.K. Coalition Military Fatalities by Country since March 2003…….…………………………………………………………………………11 Iraqi Military and Police Killed since January 2005……………………………………………………………………………………………..………...…..11 Car Bombs in Iraq (Lethal and Non-Lethal)………………………….…………………………………………………..…………………………………....12 Iraqi Civilians Killed by US Troops……………………………………………………………………………………………………….………...…………..12 Iraqi Civilians Killed By Violence …………………………………………………………….…………………………..…………………………….………13 Multiple Fatality Bombings in Iraq………………………………………………..………..…………………………………..……………..……..………….14 Killed and Wounded in Multiple Fatality Bombings………………………………………………………………………………..………………………….14 Police and Civilian Deaths by Region…………………………………………………………………………………………..……………….………….……15 Non-Iraqi Civilian Casualties Killed Monthly since May 2003…………………..……………………………….....................................................................15 Journalists Killed in Iraq…………………………………………………………………………………………………………..………………..……………16 Nationalities of Journalists Killed in Iraq….……………………………………………………………………………………………………………..……..16 Circumstances of Journalist Deaths……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..16 Iraqis Kidnapped……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………......…………..….…16 Foreign Nationals Kidnapped in Iraq since May 2003……………………………………………………………………………………………..….……….17 Iraqi Prison Population………………………………………………………………………………………….……………………………….…….…………18 Estimated Strength of Insurgency Nationwide…………………….……………………………………………………………………………………...…….19 Estimated Number of Foreign Fighters in the Insurgency ………………………………………………………………………………………………….…20 Nationalities of Foreign Militants in Iraq, September 2005……………………………………………………………………………………………………20 Coalition Troop Strength in Iraq ………….………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….…21 Distribution of the Army’s Authorized End Strength, By Component and Function, Fiscal Year 2005……………………………..………..……….…..22 Attacks on Iraqi Oil and Gas Pipelines, Installations, & Personnel …………………………………………………………………………………....……..22 Top Ten Non-U.S. Coalition Contributors of Military Personnel in Iraq………………………………………..…………………………………….……..23 Number of Daily Insurgent Attacks by Province……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….23 Number of Daily Attacks by Insurgents and Militias…………………………………………………………………………………………….….…...….....24 Average Weekly Attacks by Time Period: 1 January 2004 – 20 January 2006……………………………………………………………………….…...….24 U.S. Military Fatalities Caused by Improvised Explosive Devices…………………………………………………………………………………………….25 Improvised Explosive Devices (IED’s) Detonated And Disarmed January – June, 2006……………………………..………………………..…………….26 Coalition Forces Ability to Find and Disarm Improvised Explosive Devises…………………………………………………………….……….…..…. …..26 Average Number of Daily Patrols and Violent Events in Baghdad………………………………………………………..…………………………………..26 American Military Helicopters Downed in Iraq ……………………………………………………………………………….……………….……..….….…27 Internally Displaced Persons in Iraq…………………………………………………………………………………………….…..………….…………….…27 Migration Indicators………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..…………………………….27 Refugees And Asylum Seekers……………………………………………………………………………………............…………………………….……..…27 Size of Iraqi Security Forces on Duty ………..……………………………………………………………………………………………………….…..……..28 Enemy-Initiated Attacks Against the Coalition and Its Partners………………………………………………………………………………....…………...29 Index of Political Freedom…………………………………………………………………………………………….……………….………………...….……29 Index of Press Freedom…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………...30 Political Parties in Iraq………………………………………………………………………………………….……………………………..………..….…….30 Council Seats in New Iraqi Legislature……………………………………………………………………………………………..…………………..….……30 Economic & Quality of Life Indicators Fuel………….……………..……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….31 Oil Revenue from Exports……………………………………………………………………………………………………….…..…………….……………..32 Electricity………………………………………………………………………………………………………….…………………….……….….…………….33 Nationwide Unemployment Rate………………………………………………………………………………………………………….………………..……34 American Aid Appropriated, Obligated and Disbursed towards the Iraq Relief and Reconstruction Fund….…………..…………….……….………...35 Pledges of Reconstruction Aid to Iraq by Country, As of December 31, 2005……………………………………………………………………….……….36 Gross Domestic Product Estimates and Projections……………………………………………………..……………..………………………….……...……37 Annual Iraqi Budget and Actual Expenditures through August 2006………………………………………………………………………………………...37 Change in Iraq’s Debt, 2004 to 2006……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..37 Estimated Appropriations Provided for Operations in Iraq and the War on Terror; 2001-2007…………………………………………………………..38 Inflation………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….………………….……………..38 Other Economic Indicators…………………………………………………………………………………………………………..……..…………..………..39 2 Trained Judges……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….……39 Telephone subscribers…………………..……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….………..39 Internet subscribers……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….………40 Media……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..………………………………..40 Doctors in Iraq………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………....………………….40 Number of Registered Cars………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………40 Current Water Projects Outputs Vs. CPA Goals……………………………………………………………………………………………………….…..…..41 Education Indicators – Enrollment……………………………………………………………………………………………….………...…………………...41 Polling/Politics September 27, 2006: World Opinion Poll.org – PIPA: The Iraqi Public on the US Presence and the Future of Iraq…………………………..……...….42 June 14 – 24, 2006: International Republican Institute……………………………………………………………....………………….…………….……….43 January 31, 2006: World Opinion Poll.org – What the Iraqi Public Wants…………………………………………………………………...……………..47 3 TRACKING THE SURGE In January 2007, President Bush announced a new strategy in Iraq that called for a considerable deployment of both U.S. and Iraqi security forces tasked with installing a concentrated security presence in some of Iraq’s most restive regions, predominantly Baghdad and Al-Anbar province. Though Operation Fardh al-Qanoon (Enforcing the Law), popularly referred to as “the Surge”, is in its extreme early stages, there are many figures being reported that attempt to shed light on how the operation is progressing. While we believe that it is as of yet too early to consider some of these numbers as strong indicators of lasting progress, there are others that do offer insight into both what has been accomplished thus far and what can reasonably be expected in the future. U.S. TROOPS COMMITTED TO THE SURGE1 Date Announced/Approved Duty January 2007 21,500 Combat March 1 2,400 Support March 7 2,200 Military Police March 10 129 Provincial Reconstruction March 17 2,600 Combat Aviation TOTAL 28,829 NOTE ON THIS TABLE: Deputy Secretary of Defense Gordon England testified March 1, 2007, that up to 7,000 additional troops could be necessary to help support the 21,500 additional combat troops President Bush announced would be sent to the region in January 2007. Of this figure, Deputy Secretary England testified that 2,400 of these had been approved. NUMBER OF NEW U.S. TROOPS DEPLOYED TO BAGHDAD2 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 6,000 2,000 2,700 1,000 0 February 21 March 14 AS OF NOTE ON THIS GRAPH: According to Lt. Col. Carl Ey, as of March 1, 2007, there were a total of 10,000 U.S. troops deployed in all of Iraq as a result of the troop increase announced by President Bush in January 2007. Figures from
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