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Economyfinancial Crisis Issue 2 (2), 2015 ARMENIA AZERBAIJAN VYSHEGRAD 4 VYSHEGRAD UKRAINE ENERGY SECURITY ENERGY EASTERN PARTNERSHIP PIPELINESREVISION POLICY NEIGHBOURHOOD DCFTA POLITICS TURKEY CHOICE TRADE ECONOMYFINANCIAL CRISIS BLACKASSOCIATION SEA FRAMEWORK AGREEMENT UNION EUROPEAN • Politics vs Economy • EnErgy Security • AssociAtion AgrEEmEnts UA: Ukraine Analytica · 2 (2), 2015 1 Issue 2 (2), 2015 BOARD OF ADVISERS Politics vs Economics Dr. Dimitar Bechev (Bulgaria, Research fellow, London School of Economics and Social Science) Dr. Iulian Chifu (Romania, Director of the Editors Conflict Analysis and Early Warning Center) Dr. Hanna Shelest Dr. Igor Koval (Ukraine, Rector of Odessa Dr. Mykola Kapitonenko National University by I.I. Mechnikov) Dr. Sergey Minasyan (Armenia, Deputy Publisher: Director at the Caucasus Institute) Published by NGO “Promotion of Intercultural Cooperation” (Ukraine), Stephan Meuser (Germany, Director of Centre of International Studies (Ukraine), the Representation of the Friedrich Ebert Foundation in Ukraine and Belarus) Representation of the Friedrich Ebert with the financial support of the Foundation in Ukraine. James Nixey (the United Kingdom, Head of the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House, the Royal Institute of International Affairs) academic/analytical journal in English UA: Ukraine Analytica is the first Ukrainian language on International Relations, Politics Dr. Róbert Ondrejcsák (Slovakia, Director of and Economics. The journal is aimed for Center for European and North Atlantic Affairs) experts, diplomats, academics, students interested in the international relations and H.E., Dr. Oleg Shamshur (Ukraine, Ambassador Ukraine in particular. Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Ukraine to France) Contacts: Dr. Stephan De Spiegeleire (The Netherlands, website: http://ukraine-analytica.org/ Director Defence Transformation at The Hague e-mail: [email protected] Center for Strategic Studies) Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/ ukraineanalytica Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze (Ukraine, Twitter: https://twitter.com/UA_Analytica Member of the Parliament of Ukraine) Dr. Dimitris Triantaphyllou (Greece, Director of the Center for International and European Studies, Kadir Has University (Turkey)) Dr. Asle Toje (Norway, Research Director at the Norwegian Nobel Institute) UA: Ukraine Analytica · 2 (2), 2015 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS TO BUILD A FOREIGN POLICY CAPABLE OF DEVELOPING . .3 Interview with Hanna Hopko, MP, Head of the Committee on Foreign Affairs of the Parliament of Ukraine for UA: Ukraine Analytica AT THE RIGHT TIME IN THE RIGHT SHAPE . .8 Amb. Andri Veselovsky EASTERN PARTNERSHIP UNDER RECONSTRUCTION: THE UKRAINIAN TEST. .18 Hennadiy Maksak FACTORS INFLUENCING THE PERCEPTION OF AZERBAIJAN IN RELATIONS WITH THE EUROPEAN UNION . 25 Rovshan Ibrahimov EASTERN EUROPEAN REGIONAL COOPERATION AFTER CRIMEA: THE ART OF THE POSSIBLE . 32 Iryna Maksymenko POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF THE EU’S AUTONOMOUS TRADE PREFERENCES FOR UKRAINE . 41 Anton Kuchukhidze LIVING IN SUSTAINED UNCERTAINTY. THE BLACK SEA REGION AFTER THE 2008 GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS . 48 Panayotis Gavras and Panagiota Manoli ENERGY PROJECTS AROUND THE BLACK SEA: GEOPOLITICS VS. ECONOMY . 56 Amb. Sergiy Korsunsky POLITICS VS. ECONOMY IN EUROPEAN ENERGY AFFAIRS AND THE ROLE OF UKRAINE . 63 Andrii Chubyk 2 UA: Ukraine Analytica · 2 (2), 2015 FACTORS INFLUENCING THE PERCEPTION OF AZERBAIJAN IN RELATIONS WITH THE EUROPEAN UNION Dr. Rovshan Ibrahimov Hankuk University of Foreign Studies (South Korea) Since its independence, Azerbaijan and the EU maintained relations, which phased development. The EU developed new tools that transformed the form of these relations from purely economic to legal and had to be found within the constraints of integration. However, for the first time, this format of relations development does not suit Azerbaijan; so it is taking an initiative to create the future scenario of cooperation with this organization. This article provides analysis of the perception of Azerbaijan's relations with the EU and the possible reasons for their development. Beginning of relations between the region and the New Independent States sides (NIS).29 independence of Azerbaijan together with Both Azerbaijan and the European Union the other The former EC Sovietofficially Union recognized states on the 31 (EU) became subject to international law December 1991. In 1993, the EU began to at about the same time. However, their assist those countries, which faced political relationship is not an interaction in the and economic troubles. This was of great classical sense, since the EU is not a nation importance to the countries, which were state. In addition, the EU is also not an suffering a deepening economic distress, international organization in the classical starting from the last days of the Soviet conception. That is why the level and Union. The EU’s relations with Azerbaijan degree of the relationship between the EU progressed through a similar process to and Azerbaijan is highly dependent on the that with other NIS states. characteristics of the EU. Actually, relations with the European After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Communities and Azerbaijan SSR started to there was a brief period of uncertainty and develop in the time of the Soviet Union (via the European Communities and then EU central government in Moscow) within the continued to pursue a Russia-based policy framework of TACIS30 and other initiatives. towards relations with the countries of the One of the important initiatives within 29 Former Soviet Union Republics. 30 Technical Assistance for the Commonwealth of Independent States. UA: Ukraine Analytica · 2 (2), 2015 25 TACIS Program was TRACECA31 — an became the next step in development of inter-state regional improvement program relations between the parties. In 1992, the initiated by the EU in 1992. The major European Council decided to sign a new objective of this program was the formation agreement with NIS as the result of the of an international network, which would formation of a new political and economic create infrastructure (both national and situation. PCA, which would confer a new international), develop common standards impetus for the development of relations, and facilitate the application process in was signed between the European Union the covered areas, which could be done and Azerbaijan on 22 April 1996.33 The at minimal cost. The program considered networks in transport, energy, and provisions promoting the creation of a dialoguefirst article framework of the foragreement the development included of political relations with Azerbaijan, the Aftertelecommunications two years since fields. Azerbaijan regained development of democracy and economy; its independence, on September 20, 1993, and the provision of assistance by the EU it signed an agreement with the European to Azerbaijan in order to complete the Economic Community on regulating trade process of transition to a market economy, the development of trade and investment, the development of relations was given on harmonious economic relations between Septemberin the field of1997, textiles. by Azerbaijani A further impetus President to the agreement parties, and provision of Heydar Aliyev and Georgian President economic sustainability and cooperation in Eduard Shevardnadze, who both understood the opportunities of the TRACECA Program and desired to develop their relations with legal, economic, social, financial, scientific, Anothertechnological, tool of and foreign cultural policy fields. developed by to the EU to hold a conference within the the EU towards the neighbours, including frameworkthe EU. In 1998, of the these TRACECA two leaders for signing proposed the NIS is the New Neighbourhood Policy, was Multilateral Transportation Treaty introduced in order to establish stability, EU supported this offer, and a conference security, and welfare of the surrounding « Revitalization of the Silk Road». The areas of the EU. The enlargement process cannot continue forever, therefore the EU, on the « Transport Corridor»’ was which aims to complete its political alliance Europe-Caucasus-Asiaheld in Baku on September, for the 8, Development1998. At the in the future, needed a new instrument to ofend International of the conference, Multilateral « Treaty support political and economic reforms in signed.32 the neighbouring countries.34 » was Successful implementation of the NNP Forging a new EU foreign policy would provide a similar status for towards the former Soviet countries participants to the one for the members of the European Economic Area aiming Partnership and Cooperation Agreement to fully realize economic integration (PCA), a new tool developed by the EU, with neighbouring countries without the 31 Transit Corridor Central Europe-Caucasus-Central Asia. 32 http://www.mfa.gov.az/az/foreign_policy/inter_affairs/econom/regional/11.shtml, 33 Azərbaycan Respublikasїnїn TRASEKA layihəsində iştirakї, Annotated Summary of Agreements Linking with Non-member Countries, 2000. 34 Foreign Affairs Review, Volume 11, No 2, Holland, Kluwer Law International, Summer, 2006, pp. 139-140. B. Ferrero-Waldner, “The European Neighbourhood Policy: The EU’s Newest Foreign Policy Instrument”, European 26 UA: Ukraine Analytica · 2 (2), 2015 prospect of political integration.35 The cooperation between the parties in the basis of this initiative lies in a differentiated Azerbaijan step-by-step approach. Accordingly, a considered the proposal by 38the EU as a proposed individual
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