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Economyfinancial Crisis Issue 2 (2), 2015 ARMENIA AZERBAIJAN VYSHEGRAD 4 VYSHEGRAD UKRAINE ENERGY SECURITY ENERGY EASTERN PARTNERSHIP PIPELINESREVISION POLICY NEIGHBOURHOOD DCFTA POLITICS TURKEY CHOICE TRADE ECONOMYFINANCIAL CRISIS BLACKASSOCIATION SEA FRAMEWORK AGREEMENT UNION EUROPEAN • Politics vs Economy • EnErgy Security • AssociAtion AgrEEmEnts UA: Ukraine Analytica · 2 (2), 2015 1 Issue 2 (2), 2015 BOARD OF ADVISERS Politics vs Economics Dr. Dimitar Bechev (Bulgaria, Research fellow, London School of Economics and Social Science) Dr. Iulian Chifu (Romania, Director of the Editors Conflict Analysis and Early Warning Center) Dr. Hanna Shelest Dr. Igor Koval (Ukraine, Rector of Odessa Dr. Mykola Kapitonenko National University by I.I. Mechnikov) Dr. Sergey Minasyan (Armenia, Deputy Publisher: Director at the Caucasus Institute) Published by NGO “Promotion of Intercultural Cooperation” (Ukraine), Stephan Meuser (Germany, Director of Centre of International Studies (Ukraine), the Representation of the Friedrich Ebert Foundation in Ukraine and Belarus) Representation of the Friedrich Ebert with the financial support of the Foundation in Ukraine. James Nixey (the United Kingdom, Head of the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House, the Royal Institute of International Affairs) academic/analytical journal in English UA: Ukraine Analytica is the first Ukrainian language on International Relations, Politics Dr. Róbert Ondrejcsák (Slovakia, Director of and Economics. The journal is aimed for Center for European and North Atlantic Affairs) experts, diplomats, academics, students interested in the international relations and H.E., Dr. Oleg Shamshur (Ukraine, Ambassador Ukraine in particular. Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Ukraine to France) Contacts: Dr. Stephan De Spiegeleire (The Netherlands, website: http://ukraine-analytica.org/ Director Defence Transformation at The Hague e-mail: [email protected] Center for Strategic Studies) Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/ ukraineanalytica Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze (Ukraine, Twitter: https://twitter.com/UA_Analytica Member of the Parliament of Ukraine) Dr. Dimitris Triantaphyllou (Greece, Director of the Center for International and European Studies, Kadir Has University (Turkey)) Dr. Asle Toje (Norway, Research Director at the Norwegian Nobel Institute) UA: Ukraine Analytica · 2 (2), 2015 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS TO BUILD A FOREIGN POLICY CAPABLE OF DEVELOPING . .3 Interview with Hanna Hopko, MP, Head of the Committee on Foreign Affairs of the Parliament of Ukraine for UA: Ukraine Analytica AT THE RIGHT TIME IN THE RIGHT SHAPE . .8 Amb. Andri Veselovsky EASTERN PARTNERSHIP UNDER RECONSTRUCTION: THE UKRAINIAN TEST. .18 Hennadiy Maksak FACTORS INFLUENCING THE PERCEPTION OF AZERBAIJAN IN RELATIONS WITH THE EUROPEAN UNION . 25 Rovshan Ibrahimov EASTERN EUROPEAN REGIONAL COOPERATION AFTER CRIMEA: THE ART OF THE POSSIBLE . 32 Iryna Maksymenko POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF THE EU’S AUTONOMOUS TRADE PREFERENCES FOR UKRAINE . 41 Anton Kuchukhidze LIVING IN SUSTAINED UNCERTAINTY. THE BLACK SEA REGION AFTER THE 2008 GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS . 48 Panayotis Gavras and Panagiota Manoli ENERGY PROJECTS AROUND THE BLACK SEA: GEOPOLITICS VS. ECONOMY . 56 Amb. Sergiy Korsunsky POLITICS VS. ECONOMY IN EUROPEAN ENERGY AFFAIRS AND THE ROLE OF UKRAINE . 63 Andrii Chubyk 2 UA: Ukraine Analytica · 2 (2), 2015 AT THE RIGHT TIME IN THE RIGHT SHAPE Amb., Dr. Andri Veselovsky The article describes the relations between the European Community and Ukraine since 1994 when the Partnership and Cooperation Agreement was signed, analyzing the factors of time, when this cooperation has been developed, and personalities involved in both the EU and Ukraine. The article is based on the personal observations of the author who served both as a Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine (2005-2008) and as the Permanent Representative of Ukraine to the EU (2008-2010) The formal rapprochement of Ukraine to Still, Ukraine is not a member neither a the European Union started in 1994. The candidate to the EU, and the Association Partnership and Cooperation Agreement Agreement signed in June 2014 does not (PCA) was signed1, which took effect only include any hints or provisions of the possibility. Few took notice of a vague formula pronounced at the ceremony by eveon 01.03.1998 of the occasion, due to it the was long declared process by of the the President of the European Commission Ukrainianratification side by the that EU “the Member perspective States. goalOn the of Ukrainian foreign policy is the membership partners’ aspirations to go further; and in the European Communities…” These weJ. M. acknowledge Barroso “We their are European well aware choice. of our As words matched fully with the earlier we have stated before, these agreements expressed national strategic goal “to assure do not constitute the endpoint of the integration of Ukraine into the European EU’s cooperation with its partners. Quite political, economic, legal space in order to the opposite. Signing these Association acquire the membership in the European Agreements with Deep and Comprehensive Union”2. Initially the goal was announced Free Trade Areas should not be seen as in the Resolution of the Verkhovna Rada the end of the road, but as the beginning (Parliament) of Ukraine “On the main of a journey on which the European Union directions of the external policy of Ukraine” and these three partner countries are embarking together today.”4 Answering tentative announcement of being interested him from the Ukrainian side President P. inas earlyjoining as theJuly future1993. Moreover,EU could thebe firstfound ever in Poroshenko did go much further. “During the para X (International relations) of the today’s signing ceremony I’d like to make Declaration on State sovereignty of Ukraine3, a unilateral statement — when signing a year before the Independence of Ukraine. the Agreement on Association with the EU 1 Partnership And Co-Operation Agreement Between The European Communities And Their Member States, And Ukraine, 1994 http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2003/october/tradoc_111612.pdf 2 3 Закон Украї�ни «Про засади внутрішньої� і зовнішньої� політики» (Відомості Верховної� Ради Украї�ни (ВВР), 2010, № 40, ст.527) http://zakon5.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/2411-17 4 Three partners meant Georgia, Moldova, Ukraine. Декларація про державнии� суверенітет Украї�ни / Верховна Рада УРСР; Декларація від 16.07.1990 № 55-XII. UA: Ukraine Analytica · 2 (2), 2015 8 Ukraine, as a European Nation, sharing the properly the Luxembourg documents and same values as a rule of law and freedom, then prepare papers and speed up reforms. stressing on the future membership of Ukraine in the EU. The Association Agreement is but a tool to prepare us for Wasn’t the second EU-Ukraine Summit of the future accession”. Could1998 in Ukraine Vienna trya step to convertin the right its directionPCA into aand “Europeanwhy didn’t itAssociation grow into a Agreement”firm walk? or at least “Stabilization & Association goal, Ukraine remains at the same starting Agreement”? Why is it that 25 years after declaring the after the annexation of Crimea and Russian aggressionpoint of a neighbour?in Donbas Why the even most in 2014,”pro- conclusions nor comment on the details. Ukrainian” ever commissioner Stefan Fule Instead,We are weneither are pointing willing atto thecontest time-factors others’ had to announce dryly that the “Association and personal factors, which contributed Agreement is an agreement about reforms. to the non-success story of the EU-UA It is a proposal of the way, how the EU relations. The study will be limited by the partners can get closer to the EU and become a part of the EU in an economic sense — after implementing a considerable limitfirst two the Ukrainian negative presidenciesinternal developments period and part of the EU’s know-how”.5 inthe Ukraine, executive as branch it will only.be shown, Within coincided this time the reasons for the EU frigidity towards with the periods of the EU’s concentration Ukraine if not repulsion? What are on non-Ukrainian issues, while the pro- Ukrainian tendencies in the EU institutions Many answers have been given and many had been ruined by Ukrainian political have been extensive. The simple one would strife and so on. A look at the history of the be as follows: Ukraine never applied to bilateral relations through this optic may the EU. Some Ukrainians say they could help to avoid mistakes in the future. submit a formal application, but it would be rejected according to the Copenhagen In spite of the formal success of installing criteria of 1993 (we come to this subject contractual relations with the united below), and they knew that. That is why Europe, the PCA was quite a shallow the Ukrainian case was not on the table document. There was no vision of of the historic December 1997 European Ukraine as a part of the future Union in Council in Luxembourg, which adopted the it. There were no such important words main lines of the Central Eastern Europe to Ukraine as “association” in the sense + Cyprus enlargement6. Still the answer of the commitments given to the Central is not fully fair. The real problem was to and Eastern Europe states — today’s EU take a bold decision and to convert it into Members, or ‘candidacy”, “membership a policy, in spite of the rejections. Neither prerequisites” and so on. The PCA was a framework document and its only subjects of the December 1997 Council, andBulgaria their fatenor wasRomania decided weretwo years
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