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Exchanges & Order Execution September 15, Industry Update Exchanges & Order Execution 2011 Niamh Alexander Global Exchange Notes - September Volume Down Modestly from August Spike Analyst 212-887-3695 Summary-- [email protected] We address the recent surge in trading activity as high volatility persists and macro fears KBW Inc (North America) hit risk asset valuations. We reiterate our Outperform ratings on DB1, ICAP, BGCP, ICE, NDAQ, NYX and SGX. All eyes are now on the European Competition Justin Bates Commission's review of the DB1/NYX merger as competitors shape their strategies Analyst amid a changing market structure. In the U.S, the CFTC has outlined a rough timetable +44 207 663 3219 for rules to be finalized by 1Q12. A draft legislative MiFiD II proposal in Europe is [email protected] KBW Ltd (Europe) expected on Oct. 21, with implementation likely in early 2013. Sam Hilton Key Points-- Analyst +852 3973 8330 [email protected] ■ Tempered September Follows August Surge. Volume and volatility surged in KBW Asia Ltd August, stemming from uncertainty over the slowdown in global growth, the debt crisis in Europe, and speculation around global monetary and fiscal policy. Investors exiting risk assets drove record exchange volumes. We caution that extraordinary Karl Morris Analyst storms of volume and volatility often precede extended periods of calm, and already +44 207 663 5296 OTC activity in Europe has slowed. Volume in September so far has been modest, [email protected] though still remains higher than last year. That said, exchanges and inter-dealer KBW Ltd (Europe) brokers should be positioned for a solid 3Q11. ■ NYX-DB1 Merger--December Decision Anticipated. We estimate NYX is Nassime Ruch-Kamgar, CFA currently trading at a slight premium to its implied merger price of $26. As expected, Analyst the European Commission extended its review of the merger to December 13th. The 212-887-7715 EC will be focused on the tie-up of the Eurex/LIFFE exchanges as this would create a [email protected] near monopoly for trading index, equity and interest rate futures in Europe. The KBW Inc (North America) company denied recent speculation of a deal between the EC and European market structure regulators to let the merger pass with restrictions on vertical integration Thomas Mills from MiFiD/EMIR. Analyst ■ Exchange Valuations Compressed with the Market. Macro fears pushed down +44 207 663 5295 exchange P/E multiples alongside the broader financial services sector, with Europe [email protected] down the most at 17% on average since 2Q11, even as business spiked. Historically, KBW Ltd (Europe) August has been an ideal time to go long exchange stocks as activity seasonally picks up following the summer. Our note on August 10th highlights that U.S. exchange Alim Shaikh stocks appear to already price in risk to earnings of stagnating volume. Analyst ■ Key Regulatory Events Upcoming. In its Sept. 8 meeting, the CFTC outlined a 212-887-7730 [email protected] timetable for the finalization of proposed rules and a proposal for phased KBW Inc (North America) implementation in regard to clearing, documentation and margining requirements. At its Sept. 22 meeting, the CFTC will consider rules on clearinghouse core principles and position limits. Other items to be finalized before year-end include: entity/product definitions, swap data record-keeping, and real-time reporting. In 1Q12, the CFTC will tackle capital and margin requirements and Swap Execution Facilities (SEFs). In Europe, the draft legislative proposal for MiFiD II is expected on Oct. 21, though implementation could be early 2013 after it is reviewed, revised and voted on by the European Parliament. ■ Please view PDF version for full note. Please refer to important disclosures and analyst certification information on pages 7 - 9 of this report. 1 September 15, 2011 Global Exchange Notes - September Volume Down Modestly from August Spike Global Exchange and Interdealer Broker Comp Sheet Market Cap Market Target Dividend EV / NTM KBW Estimates P/E Consensus Symbol Company Name Rating (USD Mil) Price Price Yield EBITDA 2010 2011E 2012E 2011E 2012E 2011E 2012E Exchanges - Americas CME CME Group MP $18,090 $271.86 $300 2.1% 7.6x $15.44 $17.16 $18.14 15.8x 15.0x $17.34 $19.49 ICE Intercontinental Exchange OP $9,012 $123.68 $137 NA 9.1x $5.64 $6.78 $7.76 18.2x 15.9x $6.68 $7.51 NYX NYSE Euronext OP $7,349 $28.16 $38 4.3% 6.7x $2.10 $2.58 $2.81 10.9x 10.0x $2.59 $2.94 NDAQ Nasdaq OMX Group OP $4,415 $25.14 $33 NA 6.7x $1.99 $2.47 $2.85 10.2x 8.8x $2.47 $2.75 CBOE CBOE Holdings MP $2,689 $26.34 $25 1.8% 8.1x $1.08 $1.63 $1.85 16.2x 14.2x $1.51 $1.72 BVMF3-BR BM&FBOVESPA NC $10,885 9.16 NA 4.3% NA NA NA 0.71 0.77 X-AC TMX Group NC $3,041 40.65 NA NA NA NA NA 3.66 3.90 BOLSA.A-MX Bolsa Mexicana NC $933 20.40 NA NA NA NA NA 1.15 1.32 Median 15.8x 14.2x Exchanges - EMEA DB1-XE Deutsche Boerse OP $11,441 44.00 68 6.8% 6.7x 5.10 4.78 5.66 9.2x 7.8x 4.33 4.84 LSE-LN London Stock Exchange UP $3,620 859.38 666 2.9% 8.0x 60.10 66.90 71.10 12.8x 12.1x 80.28 84.01 BME-MC Bolsas Y Mercados Espanoles MP $2,185 19.08 21 6.8% 7.4x 1.84 1.73 1.73 11.0x 11.0x 1.81 1.80 EXAE-AT Hellenic Exchanges Holdings MP $349 3.80 6.31 0.0% 7.0x 0.29 0.44 0.48 8.6x 7.9x 0.35 0.41 JSE-JO Johannesburg Stock Exchange NC $765 6,506 NA 3.0% NA NA NA 514.00 616.30 GPW-PW Warsaw Stock Exchange NC $545 42.51 NA NA NA NA NA 3.03 3.39 Median 10.1x 9.5x Exchanges - Asia-Pacific 388-HK Hong Kong SE & Clearing MP $18,870 136.70 155 2.9% 21.9x 4.67 4.80 5.09 28.5x 26.9x 5.20 5.91 S68-SG Singapore Stock Exchange OP $5,862 6.81 9.4 4.0% 14.0x 0.28 0.30 0.34 22.9x 20.3x 0.33 0.37 ASX-AU Australian Stock Exchange MP $5,214 29.01 32 6.0% 8.4x 1.91 2.10 2.21 13.8x 13.1x 2.18 2.34 BURSA-KU Bursa Malaysia MP $1,100 6.37 8 4.6% 11.4x 0.21 0.27 0.30 23.6x 21.2x 0.29 0.33 8697-JA Osaka Securities Exchange NC $1,382 393,000 NA 2.4% NA NA NA 26,730 28,423 PSE-PH Philippine Stock Exchange NC $342 242 NA 1.4% NA NA NA NZX-NZ New Zealand Stock Exchange NC $228 2.30 NA NA NA NA NA 0.12 0.15 Median 23.3x 20.8x Inter-Dealer Brokers IAP-LN ICAP OP $4,887 480.94 610 3.7% 6.7x 39.30 40.60 43.00 11.8x 11.2x 46.51 52.13 TLPR-LN Tullet Prebon MP $1,249 386.44 400 3.9% 4.2x 46.30 46.80 49.10 8.3x 7.9x 47.98 51.73 BGCP BGC Partners OP $1,607 $6.86 $8.00 9.0% 3.7x $0.64 $0.81 $0.87 8.5x 7.9x $0.77 $0.83 GFIG GFI Group MP $514 $4.19 $4.50 4.8% 3.0x $0.27 $0.32 $0.39 13.1x 10.7x $0.31 $0.42 CFT-EB Tradition NC $548 78.95 NA 10.1% NA NA NA Median 10.2x 9.3x Non-Public/Other Exchanges Americas EMEA Asia Bermuda Stock Exchange Oslo Borse Bourse de Casablanca Dubai Mercantile Exchange Tokyo Stock Exchange Colombo Stock Exchange Bolsa de Comercio de Santiago (Listed) Irish Stock Exchange Malta Stock Exchange Kuwait Stock Exchange Taiwan Stock Exchange Korea Exchange Bolsa De Valores de Colombia (Listed) MICEX Russian Stock Exchange Cyprus Stock Exchange Stock Exchange of Mauritius Shanghai Stock Exchange Thailand Stock Exchange Bolsa de Valores de Lima (Listed) Bourse de Luxembourg Qatar Exchange Stock Exchange of Tehran Shenzhen Stock Exchange Bolsa de Comercio de Buenos Aires SIX Swiss Exchange Amman Stock Exchange The Egyptian Exchange Bombay Stock Exchange Wiener Borse Oman Exchange Nigerian Stock Exchange National Stock Exchange of India Ljubljana Stock Exchange Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange Saudi Stock Exchange Stock Exchange of Thailand Instanbul Stock Exchange Borse Dubai Indonesia Stock Exchange Prices as of market close September 15, 2011. Note: All values in local currency, Estimates have been calendarized for those companies not on a Dec. year-end. UP = Underperform, MP = Market Perform, OP = Outperform, NC = Not Covered Source: Bloomberg, Reuters, FactSet, KBW Research Please refer to important disclosures and analyst certification information on pages 7 - 9 of this report. 2 September 15, 2011 Global Exchange Notes - September Volume Down Modestly from August Spike Global Volume on Exchanges Listed Derivatives - August Volume Surges As Volatility Spikes Global Share of 2010 Listed Derivative Volume In August, volume surged from July and 2Q11 levels with global volatility spiking, though has tempered Other Latin America 1% somewhat in September so far. August U.S. futures volume was 26% higher than 2Q11, while European 7% futures volume was about 8% higher.
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