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United Arab Emirates Financials : Specialized Finance 26 November 2013 Initiation of Coverage SELL Dubai Financial Market Primary ticker: DFM UH Hope alone 2 Currency: AED Dubai Financial Market (DFM UH) is one of the five main stock Stock Data exchanges in MENA, and the only listed stock exchange. We are Last price 2.19 initiating coverage of DFM with a Sell recommendation as our 12-month Last price date 24 Nov 2013 Target price 1.50 Target Price of AED 1.5 implies 32% downside. This is a result of our Target price established 26 Nov 2013 view on DFM’s valuation and the risks inherent in its ownership Upside/(downside), % -32% structure. 52 week price range 0.98 - 2.34 Market cap, USD / AED mn 4,767 / 17,511 Valuations price in all the good news. DFM’s current valuations price in EV, USD / AED mn 4,490 / 16,491 annual turnover surpassing 2005 peaks of AED 400bn, aided by the rising # shares outstanding, mn 7,996 market capitalisation of companies, increasing turnover velocity and a Free float 80% potential IPO pipeline of USD 17bn within the next 4-5 years. While the Benchmark Index (MXEF) 1,004.24 realisation of all these is probable, this is not the best entry point, in our view. Ignoring the corporate governance risk. The Borse Dubai ownership and Share price performance, 12-mo the precedent transactions reflect a degree of risk for minority investors which 2.5 160% cannot be completely offset by the benign regulatory environment. Related 140% party transactions structured to upstream cash without paying dividends to 2 120% minorities are not in line with best practices, in our view 100% 1.5 80% Economic resurgence extrapolated and also stock market vs. economy 60% correlation. While Dubai’s economic resurgence has been impressive, it is 1 40% based as much on exogenous factors. To extrapolate it on a six-year time Equities 0.5 20% horizon and assume that new IPOs would lead to stock market representing 0% the economic activity in Dubai/UAE is a far-fetched assumption in our view. 0 -20% Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep MSCI is not the be all and end all. While an increase in turnover velocity is DFM UH, AED, lhs Relative to MSCI EM, %, rhs a valid assumption, we do not see it jumping beyond 100%, from 60% at present, while the market is pricing in higher levels. A comparison of turnover 1M 3M 12M velocity in markets included in MSCI EM index clearly identifies limitations. Price -4.8% 5% 122% Price relative -3% -4% 117% Little scope for revenue diversification. An often made consensus ADTV (USD mn) 9.60 13.91 11.55 assumption is that DFM could diversify its revenue sources to other sources such as data and custody, but what is often ignored is that DFM’s trading fees, at 12bp, are at a significant premium to exchanges that have developed Key financial highlights ancilliary revenue streams, such as LSE. Fiscal year end 12/11 12/12 12/13F 12/14F P/E, x n/a n/m 66.7x 59.2x Structurally unattractive for IPOs. With its high degree of liquidity EV/EBITDA, x n/a n/m 63.1x 54.0x concentration and Herfindahl index, we see limited market attraction for P/B, x n/a 1.1x 2.3x 2.2x FCF yield, % n/a 5.7% 3.3% 3.3% smaller new entrants, as liquidity based discounts are likely to be high. Net sales, AED mn 124 150 380 473 Earnings volatility is high. The pricing structure of fees, being EBITDA, AED mn 27 59 257 294 Net income, AED mn (7) 35 263 296 predominantly a percentage of traded value, introduces a higher volatility Net sales, chg -35% 21% 154% 24% than the hybrid structure at exchanges outside the region. EBITDA, chg -71% 118% 338% 14% Our TP of 1.5 AED is derived from a DCF valuation, assuming a Net income, chg -109% -613% 646% 13% Valuation: EPS, AED (0.00086) 0.0044 0.033 0.037 terminal free cash growth of 3% and WACC of 9.2%. DFM trades at a BPS, AED 0.94 0.94 0.97 1.01 Bloomberg-consensus 2013F P/E of 74.5, a 213% premium to EM peers and EBITDA margin, % 21.7% 39.2% 67.5% 62.1% 296% premium to developed market peers. On 2015F P/E, DFM trades at a ROE, % 0% 0% 3% 4% 61% premium to EM peers and 89% premium to developed market peers. Net Debt, AED mn (1,122) (1,019) (1,312) (1,639) ND/EBITDA, x (41.7x) (17.4x) (5.1x) (5.6x) Risks: We see potential new listings as representing an earnings and Net int. cover, x (38.3x) (15.6x) 48.5x 43.3x valuation risk for our Sell thesis on DFM. Source: Bloomberg, Company data, VTB Capital Research Digvijay Singh // +971 4 377 0819 // [email protected] Prices cited in the body of this report are as of 24.11.13 (except where indicated otherwise). Please refer to the “Disclosures” section of this report for other important disclosures, including the analyst certification. Additional disclosures regarding the subject company(ies) discussed in this report can be found at http://research.vtbcapital.com/ServicePages/Disclosures.aspx. United Arab Emirates Dubai Financial Market Financials : Specialized Finance VTB Capital Facts & Forecasts Last model update on: 26 November 2013 IFRS 2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F United Arab Emirates Company data Financials / Specialized Finance Weighted avg # shares, mn 7,976 7,996 7,996 7,996 7,996 7,996 Avg market cap, AED mn n/a n/a 7,944 17,511 17,511 17,511 EV, AED mn n/a n/a 6,925 16,199 15,871 15,489 Ratios & analysis P/E, x n/a n/a n/m 66.7x 59.2x 50.6x EV/EBITDA, x n/a n/a n/m 63.1x 54.0x 44.1x Dubai Financial P/B, x n/a n/a 1.1x 2.3x 2.2x 2.1x Dividend yield (ords), % n/a n/a - - - - Market EPS, AED 0.0099 (0.00086) 0.0044 0.033 0.037 0.043 CFPS, AED 0.013 0.012 0.011 0.038 0.042 0.049 Free CFPS, AED 0.077 0.083 0.056 0.072 0.072 0.068 DPS (ords), AED - - - - - - Prices as of: 24 November 2013 Payout ratio (ords), % - - - - - - Ticker CCY Current 12mo TP Rating BPS, AED 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.97 1.01 1.06 DFM UH AED 2.19 1.50 Sell Revenues growth, % -53% -35% 21% 154% 24% 20% EPS growth, % -77% -109% -613% 646% 13% 17% EBITDA margin, % 49.0% 21.7% 39.2% 67.5% 62.1% 62.0% Net margin, % 41.6% -5.5% 23.5% 69.1% 62.5% 61.1% Share price performance, 12-mo ROE, % 1.0% -0.1% 0.5% 3.4% 3.7% 4.1% 2.5 150% ROIC, % 0.0% -1.2% -0.3% 4.4% 5.1% 6.1% Capex/Revenues, % 6% 4% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2 Capex/Depreciation, x (0.1x) (0.1x) 0.0x (0.9x) (1.1x) (1.2x) 100% Net debt/Equity, % -11% -15% -14% -17% -20% -24% 1.5 Net debt/EBITDA, x (8.8x) (41.7x) (17.4x) (5.1x) (5.6x) (5.8x) 50% Net interest cover, x (0.1x) (38.3x) (15.6x) 48.5x 43.3x 41.4x 1 Income statement summary, AED mn 190 124 150 380 473 566 0% Revenues 0.5 Cost of sales n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a SG&A and other opexp. 192 193 168 138 195 233 0 -50% EBITDA 93 27 59 257 294 351 Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep 11 DFM UH, AED, lhs Depreciation & amortization 93 93 73 10 10 Operating profit 0 (66) (15) 247 284 340 Relative to MSCI EM, %, rhs (75) (53) (47) (50) (52) (53) Non-operating gains /(exp.) EBIT 0 (66) (15) 247 284 340 Net interest income/(exp.) - - - - - - Company description Profit before tax 73 (15) 32 292 329 385 Dubai Financial Market is one of the top five Income tax - - - - - - stock exchanges in the MENA region and the Minority interests (5) (8) (3) (29) (33) (39) only listed stock exchange operator. VTBC Net income 79 (7) 35 263 296 346 Cash flow statement summary, AED mn Cash flow from operations 107 99 89 302 339 396 Company website Working capital changes 11 67 26 - - - Capex (11) (5) (4) (9) (11) (14) Other investing activities (81) 18 (318) (59) (62) (65) http://www.dfm.ae/ Free cash flow 617 666 450 573 577 541 Share issue (reacquisition) - - - - - - Dividends paid (314) (186) (1) - - - Net change in borrowings - - - - - - Shareholder structure Other financing cash flow - - - 0 0 0 Movement in cash 138 (42) (202) 233 265 317 Free Float 20% Balance sheet summary, AED mn Cash and equivalents 248 51 65 299 564 881 PP&E 40 22 15 14 16 18 Goodwill - - - - - - Investments 2,101 1,918 1,987 2,046 2,108 2,174 Other assets 5,526 5,708 5,645 5,645 5,645 5,645 Total assets 7,915 7,698 7,712 8,004 8,333 8,718 Borse Interest bearing debt 58 20 21 21 21 21 Dubai Other liabilities 302 175 212 212 213 213 80% Total liabilities 360 196 233 234 234 234 Total shareholder's equity 7,523 7,479 7,458 7,721 8,016 8,362 Minority interest 31 24 20 50 83 122 Source: Company data, VTB Capital Research Net working capital - - - - - - Net Debt (819) (1,122) (1,019) (1,312) (1,639) (2,022) Capital 7,582 7,499 7,479 7,742 8,038 8,383 FCF yield, % n/a n/a 5.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.1% Research team Net sales, chg -53% -35% 21% 154% 24% 20% EBITDA, chg -72% -71% 118% 338% 14% 19% Digvijay Singh / +971 4 377 0819 Net income, chg -77% -109% -613% 646% 13% 17% EBIT margin, % 0% -53% -10% 65% 60% 60% 26 November 2013 2 United Arab Emirates Dubai Financial Market Financials : Specialized Finance Table of contents Executive Summary ..................................................................................................
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