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Dim Sum Express Equity Research Jan 3, 2018 Dim Sum Express Key index performance Hong Kong Market Chg (%) EPS (%) P/E Market 1D 1M YTD 17E 18E 17E 18E CRRC (1766 HK, Buy): Strong 4Q17 new orders; maintain Buy HSI 2.0 5.0 2.0 37.2 9.8 12.4 11.3 HSCEI 3.1 5.4 3.1 25.3 9.8 8.0 7.3 CRC announced that China met its annual rail FAI target in 2017, while the 3,038km of new rail lines MXCN 3.3 6.4 3.3 46.5 15.1 13.9 12.1 brought into operation during the year was higher than the target of 2,100km. For 2018, CRC is SHSZ300 1.4 2.2 1.4 35.1 15.2 13.7 11.9 SHCOMP 1.2 0.9 1.2 41.0 14.8 13.1 11.4 targeting a rail FAI budget of Rmb73.2bn, which would represent an 8.5% YoY decrease. It also SZCOMP 1.0 0.1 1.0 81.9 27.1 20.3 16.0 expects: 1) 35 rail projects to start construction in 2018, 2) 4,000 km of new rail lines to be brought INDU 0.4 2.4 0.4 25.1 9.5 18.3 16.7 into operation, including 3,500 km of high-speed rail lines. CRRC’s management believes there could SPX 0.8 2.0 0.8 33.7 10.5 18.5 16.8 be a slight increase in the rail equipment budget, and sees upside to the new rail lines target. CCMP 1.5 2.3 1.5 71.3 16.1 22.5 19.4 UKX -0.5 4.8 -0.5 152.9 6.7 14.7 13.8 NKY -0.1 -0.2 - 42.1 12.0 19.1 17.0 WuXi Biologics (2269 HK, Buy): 90-day extension of ibalizumab’s PDUFA date a short-term negative; expect first commercial batch to be delivered in 2Q18 Hong Kong ADRs TaiMed Biologics announced that the FDA will extend its review of ibalizumab by 90 days. We note HK Local Daily ADR Daily that its CMO contract manufacturing partner, WuXi Biologics, previously expected the project to enter ticker Company (HK$) (%) (US$) (%) commercialization by 1Q18. While we believe the delay is merely a short-term setback, it will have a 700 TENCENT 417.8 2.91 54.5 4.97 slightly negative impact on WuXi’s FY18 outlook. However, we see a strong likelihood of approval, 1398 ICBC 6.5 3.02 10.8 4.88 939 CCB 7.4 3.06 19.0 2.89 and the temporary delay does not impact our outlook for ibalizumab. Uncertainty could lead to near- 857 PETROCHINA 5.6 2.39 72.0 2.95 term weakness, but we expect the eventual approval and the prospect for commercial manufacturing 5 HSBC 81.3 1.69 52.4 1.49 to be a positive catalyst for WuXi Biologics. 941 CHINA MOBILE 79.3 0.00 50.8 0.44 2318 PING AN 85.0 4.49 21.8 4.50 Xtep Intl (1368 HK, Buy): Share repurchase shows management's confidence in turnaround 3988 BANK OF CHINA 3.9 2.08 12.5 2.62 in 2018; maintain Buy 2628 CHINA LIFE 25.2 2.65 6.9 -2.86 386 SINOPEC 5.9 3.14 76.1 3.78 The share repurchase by the company and purchase plans by senior management are a sign that senior management has confidence in the turnaround of financial performance in 2018. The Source: Bloomberg Chairman has purchased 6.77m shares in the secondary market at HK$2.85-3.04 since 12 Dec 2017. The stock has accumulated 19.2m shares of short-selling since 11 Dec 2017. This could be a catalyst if these positions are unwound. We raise our target price from HK$3.22 to HK$3.96 as we have greater confidence in the turnaround. Maintain Buy. Alex Fan, CFA, Head of Research, SFC CE No. ADJ672 [email protected] +852 3719 1047 Gao Yedong, Editor, SFC CE No. BAI002 [email protected] +852 3719 1026 Dim Sum Express Jan 3, 2018 CRRC (1766 HK, Buy): Strong 4Q17 new orders; maintain Buy CRC announces Rmb73.2bn rail FAI budget in 2018 China Railway Corporation (CRC) has announced that China completed rail FAI of Rmb801bn in 2017, meeting the annual target of Rmb800bn put forward in early 2017. Meanwhile, 3,038km of new rail lines were brought into operation in 2017, higher than the annual target of 2,100km set in 2017. For 2018, the CRC is targeting an Rmb73.2bn of rail FAI budget, which would represent an 8.5% YoY decrease. It also expects: 1) 35 rail projects to start construction in 2018, 2) 4,000 km of new rail lines to be brought into operation this year, including 3,500 km of high-speed rail lines. Key takeaways from CRRC management We talked to the CRRC’s management and gained these key takeaways: 1) The CRC has not announced its 2018 annual budget for rail equipment yet; the company believes there might be a slight increase in the budget. 2) New rail lines brought into operation in 2018 may be higher than the CRC’s expectation of 4,000km, a scenario similar to 2017. Reiterate positive view on rail equipment sector Even though the total rail FAI budget for 2018 has come down, we do not think it will negatively affect the demand of rail equipment. By the end of 2017, the total length of operational rail lines in China was 127,000km. In order to meet 13th FYP targets, total mileage needs to reach 150,000km in 2020. That means 23,000km of new rail lines should commence operation during 2018-2020. We reiterate our positive view on the rail equipment sector as more new rail lines brought into operation will drive the demand of rail equipment. Significant rebound in CRRC’s new orders in 4Q17 The CRRC announced on 29 Dec 2017 that it won key orders worth a total of Rmb68b in 4Q17, of which Rmb30.45bn were EMU orders, Rmb22.17bn were urban transit vehicle orders, Rmb1.75bn were locomotive orders, Rmb2.29bn were freight wagon orders, Rmb1bn were wind power related orders, and Rmb7.8bn were vehicles refurbishment orders. The CRRC won Rmb163.8bn worth of key orders in 2017, of which 47.4% were won in 4Q17; in addition, the company won Rmb27bn more new orders compared with 4Q16. There was a significant improvement in new orders for the company in 4Q17, especially for EMU orders (Rmb66.4bn in 2017 compared with Rmb3.95bn in 2016). Meanwhile, urban transit vehicle orders saw 69.1% YoY growth in 2017. Maintain Buy As was pointed out in our previous report, the delivery of EMUs and urban transit vehicles will be strong in 2018. We expect net profit to increase 22% YoY in 2018. The stock is currently trading at 13.7x 2018E P/E. We maintain our Buy rating and target price of HK$9.9, based on the DCF valuation method. Our target price represents 17x 2018E P/E. Key risks: 1) High reliance on CRC procurement; 2) lower-than-expected rail equipment FAI; 3) delays in rapid transit project construction; 4) delays in receivable collection from clients; 5) pressure on product ASP. (Dominic Chan, Research Analyst, SFC CE No. APP609, [email protected] +852 3719 1218) WuXi Biologics (2269 HK, Buy): 90-day extension of ibalizumab’s PDUFA date a short-term negative; expect first commercial batch to be delivered in 2Q18 What’s new? TaiMed Biologics (4147 TT, NR) announced that the FDA will extend its review of ibalizumab by 90 days. We note that its CMO contract manufacturing partner, WuXi Biologics, previously expected the project to enter commercialization by 1Q18. While we believe the delay is merely a short-term setback, it will have a slightly negative impact on WuXi’s FY18 outlook. PDUFA date for ibalizumab has been moved from Jan 3, 2018, to April 3, 2018 The FDA was previously expected to give a decision by today (Jan 3). However, TaiMed submitted additional documentation related to the manufacturing section of the BLA, and the FDA subsequently decided it constituted a major amendment that required an extension to the target action date, to provide time for a full review of the submission. The three-month extension period is the FDA’s standard extension period. Strong likelihood of approval The temporary delay does not impact our outlook for ibalizumab, which represents an annual global market opportunity of more than US$15bn, of which the drug is expected to take some market share. A favorable regulatory outcome would allow WuXi to have the first cGMP manufacturing facilities in China approved by the FDA for a commercial biologics product. Page 2 Dim Sum Express Jan 3, 2018 Uncertainty could lead to near-term weakness; reiterate Buy and TP of HK$50.10 The stock is down 3% since the announcement in mid-Nov. We expect the eventual approval and the prospect for commercial manufacturing to be a positive catalyst for WuXi Biologics. (Natalie Chiu, Research Analyst, SFC CE No. AVH029, [email protected] +852 3760 2030) Xtep Intl (1368 HK, Buy): Share repurchase shows management's confidence in turnaround in 2018; maintain Buy Raise TP to HK$3.96 The share repurchase by the company and purchase plans by senior management are a sign that senior management has confidence in the turnaround of financial performance in 2018.
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