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ROADS to RUIN TIME for CLIMATE-RESPONSIBLE TRANSPORT INVESTMENT in SCOTLAND August 2021 CONTENTS

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ROADS to RUIN TIME for CLIMATE-RESPONSIBLE TRANSPORT INVESTMENT in SCOTLAND August 2021 CONTENTS ROADS TO RUIN TIME FOR CLIMATE-RESPONSIBLE TRANSPORT INVESTMENT IN SCOTLAND August 2021 CONTENTS Introduction 3 1. The Scottish road-building programme 7 2. The impact of the Scottish road-building programme 25 3. Conclusions 32 4. Recommendations 35 5. Case studies 41 5.1. M74 Completion 42 5.2. A9 Dualling 44 5.3. A96 Dualling 46 Notes 48 2 INTRODUCTION WHY TRANSPORT SPENDING MATTERS Recent years have seen politicians of all the closest being business and colours recognise the severity of the climate manufacturing, which accounts for crisis and proclaim their determination to 20% of emissions. Transport Scotland reports take action. Scotland recently revised its that “motorway emissions have increased climate targets to be net zero by 2045, substantially since 1990, with the 2018 level with a 75% emissions reduction by 2030.1 81% above that of the 1990 baseline. This In transport specifically, the Scottish increase in motorway emissions since 1990 Government has now committed to a has coincided with a substantial increase target of 20% traffic reduction by 2030.2 in the length of Scotland’s motorway Yet in this key policy area where Scotland network. Between 1990 and 2017, Scotland’s has consistently failed to make progress on motorway network increased in length emissions, most mainstream politicians still from 312km to 645km. Motorway vehicle appear wedded to the further subsidy of road kilometres rose from 3242 million in 1990 use through the construction of new roads to 8518 million in 2018.”5,6 and additional road capacity. The link between the provision of additional It is indefensible, especially in light of road capacity and increased road traffic significant progress in other sectors, that levels is long established, and widely there has been nearly no progress in acknowledged by governments and experts. emissions reduction in the transport sector This phenomenon of “induced traffic” over the past 30 years. The result is that was reaffirmed in a recent evidence review transport is now the largest overall source, carried out by WSP and Rand Europe for accounting for 36% of all Scottish emissions, the UK Department for Transport. Despite having overtaken the energy sector in 2015.3,4 road traffic being our biggest problem in Other sectors have had to bear a greater transport, and climate change emissions, burden in reducing emissions as a direct Transport Scotland’s priority for new capital consequence of the failure to decarbonise expenditure remains overwhelmingly the transport sector. Looking to the future, directed to the provision of increased road there is no chance of reducing emissions fast capacity. This will inevitably further increase enough, or in a just way, if current transport road traffic levels, and consequently worsen trends are allowed to continue. The speed Scotland’s prospects of meeting its climate at which we cut our carbon emissions is change obligations. As a December 2020 vital – the next ten years are crucial if we briefing from the Scottish Parliamentary are to meet our commitments under the Information Centre (SPICe) noted when Paris Climate Agreement and limit global considering how sustainable transport temperature increases. investment was dwarfed by new road-building, “new road building also Road transport specifically accounts for a generates significant greenhouse gas massive 68% of transport emissions. This emissions during construction and locks means road transport works out as 24% of in higher emission travel choices for years all Scottish emissions, meaning that this one to come.”8 part of the transport sector is a larger emitter than any full sector of the economy – 3 FOCUS OF THIS REPORT Despite the many deleterious impacts due to paying private consortiums in PPP- and significant opportunity costs of the delivered schemes and the additional Scottish Government’s huge road-building maintenance burden in other schemes. programme, there are no published figures Given the large amounts of financing providing the total cost of the planned involved, it is vital that the government, investment. Neither is there comprehensive parliament, and the public have accurate information on how much has been spent and timely costings for the road-building in previous years. While costs are available programme. We must be able to understand for many (but far from all) road schemes, the scale of the financial commitment being in the main they are imprecise and often put into new roads, and the magnitude of the inaccurate. Particularly for larger road opportunity cost. If we are to see transport schemes, the official outturn costs take years play its part in building a sustainable, healthy, to finalise, and in the case of those delivered and fair Scotland, the Scottish Government’s through a public-private partnership (PPP) expenditure priorities must be aligned with model this can be decades. Often the costs its stated policy objectives. quoted at the point when schemes are given ministerial approval are significantly This report provides an analysis of the lower than actual costs once construction Scottish road-building programme to gets underway. Furthermore, the Scottish determine its scale and calculate how much Government does not provide a total figure of the Scottish budget is being spent on new for how much it is spending on increasing road capacity. Because of the timescales of road capacity for a given year, or even over large road projects we look at spend in ten- a five- or ten-year period. year periods: looking back to 2011–2020 and forward to the current plans for 2021–2030. Not only does the road-building programme As well as considering the sheer cost, have a massive impact on the government’s we additionally discuss the impact of near term budgets, but it creates significant the road-building programme on the financial commitments over many decades environment and society. SCOPE OF THIS REPORT This report considers Scottish Government- that provide new bridges to a modern funded road schemes, which are managed standard, but with the same capacity as the by Transport Scotland. Whilst there are also old bridges. Maintaining existing roads is road-building projects being promoted and clearly important and should be properly paid for by local authorities, it is even more funded. It is increasing road capacity, challenging to come up with comprehensive not maintenance, which imposes the figures for these, and they are at least an environmental and social costs discussed order of magnitude smaller than Scottish in this report. Government spending in any case. So to ensure that the figures are fair and robust, Over recent years, the Scottish and UK local authority road-building is outside the Governments have agreed a series of scope of this report, except in cases where Regional Growth Deals which involve Transport Scotland is also involved and the two governments, local authorities, spending central government funds. educational institutions, and regional partners working together, “to bring Only schemes which will provide new road about long-term strategic approaches to capacity are considered, so all projects that improving regional economies.”9 are road maintenance or replacing like-for- The partners contribute funding towards an like are excluded. For example, the report overall package of measures for the region. does not include A830 bridge replacements 4 Some of these City-Region Deals are being In the case of the former, significant used to build new road capacity. In cases enhancements were made to the adjacent where the Scottish Government is directing road network, and in the Gleneagles station some of its Deal funding to road-building, upgrade project more than half – £3.9 that spend is included in this report. It is million out of £7 million – of the spend went most notable in the Inverness and Highland towards building a new road. Some of this City-Region Deal, where 81% of the Scottish provided or improved road safety for station Government’s total contribution is going access, but some of the funding was used to towards building new roads. In cases where enhance road capacity. It is impossible for the funding for road projects comes from us to disentangle how much of the spending the other partners, the projects and spend went to enhanced access, but it is worth are not included here (consistent with the noting that Scottish Government spending approach taken to local authority spending, on road capacity is even higher than what is outlined above). reported here, as the figures do not include road spending from other budgets. One type of Scottish Government-funded road-building that is not included in this Finally, when summarising and making report is where new road capacity has been comparisons involving a project cost given built as part of rail projects. There are cases as a range by the Scottish Government, where ‘railway’ money has been spent to we have followed their practice of using build new roads, such as with the Borders the upper range figure.10 Railway and Gleneagles station upgrade. ROAD SPENDING DATA SOURCES As noted above, the overall cost of the The following list gives a sense of how Scottish Government’s road-building difficult it can be to find costs for road- programme is not published, and costs building projects, especially what the for individual projects are inconsistently, original cost estimates were at the time of and often inaccurately, provided. The ministerial approval. These are the range of costs for large projects are often wildly data sources and Freedom of Information underestimated initially, or not revised requests that were necessary to get a simple when it is clear they have increased (see the list of the costs of the Scottish Government’s discussions below of the M74 Completion road-building programme from 2011 and Aberdeen Western Peripheral Route through to the present.
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