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The Art of Thinking Clearly
For Sabine The Art of Thinking Clearly Rolf Dobelli www.sceptrebooks.co.uk First published in Great Britain in 2013 by Sceptre An imprint of Hodder & Stoughton An Hachette UK company 1 Copyright © Rolf Dobelli 2013 The right of Rolf Dobelli to be identified as the Author of the Work has been asserted by him in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means without the prior written permission of the publisher, nor be otherwise circulated in any form of binding or cover other than that in which it is published and without a similar condition being imposed on the subsequent purchaser. A CIP catalogue record for this title is available from the British Library. eBook ISBN 978 1 444 75955 6 Hardback ISBN 978 1 444 75954 9 Hodder & Stoughton Ltd 338 Euston Road London NW1 3BH www.sceptrebooks.co.uk CONTENTS Introduction 1 WHY YOU SHOULD VISIT CEMETERIES: Survivorship Bias 2 DOES HARVARD MAKE YOU SMARTER?: Swimmer’s Body Illusion 3 WHY YOU SEE SHAPES IN THE CLOUDS: Clustering Illusion 4 IF 50 MILLION PEOPLE SAY SOMETHING FOOLISH, IT IS STILL FOOLISH: Social Proof 5 WHY YOU SHOULD FORGET THE PAST: Sunk Cost Fallacy 6 DON’T ACCEPT FREE DRINKS: Reciprocity 7 BEWARE THE ‘SPECIAL CASE’: Confirmation Bias (Part 1) 8 MURDER YOUR DARLINGS: Confirmation Bias (Part 2) 9 DON’T BOW TO AUTHORITY: Authority Bias 10 LEAVE YOUR SUPERMODEL FRIENDS AT HOME: Contrast Effect 11 WHY WE PREFER A WRONG MAP TO NO -
Wheel of Fortune® Draw 4, 12.7.2017
WHEEL OF FORTUNE® DRAW 4, 12.7.2017 WEBSITE WINNERS LIST Prize Tier First Name Last Name City State MERCHANDISE PRIZE GIFT AHMAD ABDELWAHHAB SAN ANTONIO TX MERCHANDISE PRIZE GIFT ROBERT ABELL FORT WORTH TX MERCHANDISE PRIZE GIFT JAMAL ABOUSAADA MANOR TX MERCHANDISE PRIZE GIFT ELLIS ABRAHAM COLLEGE STATION TX MERCHANDISE PRIZE GIFT BIJOMON ABRAHAM STAFFORD TX MERCHANDISE PRIZE GIFT JOSE ACOSTA AUSTIN TX MERCHANDISE PRIZE GIFT ELIDA ACOSTA CRANE TX MERCHANDISE PRIZE GIFT ABEL ACOSTA DALLAS TX MERCHANDISE PRIZE GIFT PATRICK ADAMS HOUSTON TX MERCHANDISE PRIZE GIFT MARK ADDINGTON FORT WORTH TX MERCHANDISE PRIZE GIFT AMIN ADMANI IRVING TX MERCHANDISE PRIZE GIFT DEBRA ADRIAN MCALLEN TX MERCHANDISE PRIZE GIFT JOHN AGUIAR AUSTIN TX MERCHANDISE PRIZE GIFT TERI AGUILAR LUBBOCK TX MERCHANDISE PRIZE GIFT SARA AGUILLON FREER TX MERCHANDISE PRIZE GIFT PATSY AIKENS WATAUGA TX MERCHANDISE PRIZE GIFT CARRIE ALAFA ANDERSON TX MERCHANDISE PRIZE GIFT WES ALBANESE TEMPLE TX MERCHANDISE PRIZE GIFT FRANCES ALEXANDER HUMBLE TX MERCHANDISE PRIZE GIFT TIM ALEXANDER ROANOKE TX MERCHANDISE PRIZE GIFT MANSOOR ALI SAN ANTONIO TX MERCHANDISE PRIZE GIFT SUMERA ALI SPRING TX MERCHANDISE PRIZE GIFT TORREY ALLEN COLUMBUS TX MERCHANDISE PRIZE GIFT WILLIAM ALLEN CONVERSE TX MERCHANDISE PRIZE GIFT ROGER ALLEN EL PASO TX MERCHANDISE PRIZE GIFT VICTOR ALLEN EL PASO TX MERCHANDISE PRIZE GIFT CASSANDRA ALLEN FORT WORTH TX MERCHANDISE PRIZE GIFT SHIELA FREEMAN ALLEN GRAND PRAIRIE TX MERCHANDISE PRIZE GIFT JAMES ALLEN MAGNOLIA TX MERCHANDISE PRIZE GIFT DOUG ALLEN ODESSA TX MERCHANDISE -
HEADLINE NEWS • 8/13/07 • PAGE 2 of 8
Salute the Sarge Takes Best Pal ...p. 4 HEADLINE For information about TDN, call 732-747-8060. NEWS www.thoroughbreddailynews.com MONDAY, AUGUST 13, 2007 MERV GRIFFIN DEAD SAOIRSE SHOCKER Entertainment icon and prominent horse owner Merv Jim Bolger has already made headlines this year with Griffin died Sunday morning of prostate cancer. He was a daughter of Mr. Greeley in Finsceal Beo (Ire) and he 82. Griffin had successfully battled the disease for the unleashed another burgeoning starlet by Gainesway’s better part of 11 years, resident in Saoirse Abu in yesterday’s G1 Independent but was admitted to Ce- Waterford Wedgwood Phoenix S. at The Curragh. Sent dars Sinai Hospital in Los off at 25-1 in first-time blinkers, the chestnut toughed Angeles last month and it out up front and drew on extra reserves to forge a took a turn for the worse length victory from likely defeat as Henrythenavigator a few days ago. Among (Kingmambo) swooped. “She is a different type of Mr. the horses campaigned Greeley,” her trainer commented when asked for a by the creator of the hit comparison with Finsceal Beo. “This is a soft-ground game shows Jeopardy! one, although she doesn’t have to have it soft and she and Wheel of Fortune is brave.” Video, courtesy attheraces.com Cont. p3 was Stevie Wonderboy, the son of Stephen Got THE MAIN MAN Even who was awarded Few horses who stamp their class on the best an Eclipse Award after middle-distance contests can do the same at the top capturing the 2005 re- level over a mile, but Manduro (Ger) (Monsun {Ger}) Merv Griffin 1926 - 2007 newal of the GI Breeders’ achieved the formidable feat in style yesterday when Horsephotos Cup Juvenile (click here collecting Deauville’s G1 Prix du Haras de Fresnay-le- for video of race and in- Buffard-Jacques le Marois. -
Portland Daily Press: January 20, 1876
PORTLAND DAILY PRESS. ESTABLISHED JUNE 23, 1S62.-V0L. THURSDAY 13._PORTLAND MORNING, JANUARY 20, 1876. T^RMS $8.00 PER ANNUM, IN ADVANCE THE PORTLAND DAILY PRESS, BUSINESS CARDS. STOVES. The World sums the the Demo- scheme in JNtlSCELLiiNEOUS. up good empirical place of it. The pay- cylinder roll being adjusted over it, and then Published the THE PEESS. cratic in the House ment is to he but fresh every day (Sundays excepted) by majority have done. postponed, promises submitted to the pressure, the roll being The is to pay are to be issued. It is in this PORTLAND PUBLISHING CO., showing presumably the best that can spirit moved backward and forward until it has re- Richardson & Boynton’s that the Democrats hope to tide over their be and it is no ceived an of the At 109 Exchange St., Portland. dTwTfessendeiy, THURSDAY MORNING, JAN. 20, 1870 made, by means brilliant, present troubles. Will the public be satisfied impression original plate. The PUBLIC REPORT is it roll again hardened and made to as Terms : Dollars a Tear in advanco. To nere is: First, the Democrats elected with that ? We only know that it oiujht not repeat Eight — — mail a Tear it in ad- at OF A to times as desired the subscribers Seven Dollars paid Attorney Law, their best man the be. The Republicans would lead them to many original engraving vance. We do not read auouyiuooa letters and communi- speaker; second, speaker iron hard and solid Democrats to means of a IN a list of excellent ground—the by simply transfer-press. -
Fire Agencies Issue Burn Ban Firefighters Continue to Face Chal- HILARY DORSEY Lenges with the Pace of Current Fire [email protected] Season
School mask Work in mandate progress opposition Page A2 Page A3 Wednesday, .50 August 18, 2021 $1 thechronicleonline.com Serving Columbia County since 1881 Fire agencies issue burn ban Firefighters continue to face chal- HILARY DORSEY lenges with the pace of current fire [email protected] season. “We can’t control the weather JEREMY C. RUARK or fire starts from lightning,” Hirsch [email protected] said, “We can and we must prevent how many human-caused fires we Columbia County has moved add to the landscape.” to Extreme Fire Danger, and all ODF’s Chief of Fire Protection outdoor burning is now closed, Doug Grafe said the mix of heat, according to the Columbia County lightning and low humidity contin- Fire District Board, which issued ues to heighten the danger. the burn ban Aug. 12. “We have, along with the chal- All open burning is prohibited, lenging temperatures, likelihood even in Columbia County parks, of lightning,” Grafe said. “That’s a including recreational campfires, difficult forecast for us with lower portable propane/patio fireplaces, humidity on top of the ongoing and charcoal BBQ’s. drought.” “Anytime we go to an extreme Fire agency officials said the fire danger, it is definitely serious,” days ahead mean everyone must be Columbia River Fire & Rescue wildfire aware. District’s Rainier Station Battalion “We as the general public are Chief Jerry Cole said. “We know probably the number one helper in this inconveniences people with rec- this,” Oregon Fire Marshal Mariana reational fires, but it is for the best.” Ruiz-Temple said. “We have a role.” According to Cole, everyone Oregon Office of Emergency needs to be vigilant during such Management Director Andrew extreme fire danger. -
Ancient Order of Hibernians St Brendan the Navigator Division Mecklenburg County Division # 2 ISSUE #9 MONTHLY NEWSLETTER VOLUME#2 September 2010
Ancient Order of Hibernians St Brendan the Navigator Division Mecklenburg County Division # 2 ISSUE #9 MONTHLY NEWSLETTER VOLUME#2 September 2010 Our next business meeting is on Thursday, September 9th at 7:30 PM Rooms 200 & 201 2009-2010 Officers Chaplain Fr Brad Jones President Joe Dougherty Vice President Shane Lis Secretary Kevin Buechler Treasurer Chris O’Keefe Financial Secretary Ron Haley Standing Committee Brian Bourque Marshall Scott Stephan Sentinel Deacon Bob Murphy Chaplain Emeritus Fr. Pat Hoare www.aohmeck2.org PRESIDENT’S REPORT Brothers, Well, the time has come to pick the winner of the Mecklenburg County Board “Ireland of Your Dreams” raffle. The drawing will take place at Connolly’s on 5th on Saturday evening, September 18th. The time of the drawing will be 9:00 PM. It would be grand if the St. Brendan division had a good showing of brothers, even if you only showed up for the drawing and had to leave. Thanks have to go to all the brothers that supported this fundraiser, but especially to Scott Stephan who chaired the raffle for the division and to Ray FitzGerald who had the task of collecting the money and putting it into the bank. We welcome our newest brother, Charlie Swengros, a member of Holy Spirit parish in Denver. Charlie was given the pledge at the August meeting. It’s great to have Charlie as a member of the St Brendan division. At the August meeting, one of the things discussed was, the division purchasing a set of the 32 county flags of Ireland for use in parades and other AOH functions. -
Revision of the Atcherley Modus Operandi System August Vollmer
Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology Volume 10 | Issue 2 Article 13 1919 Revision of the Atcherley Modus Operandi System August Vollmer Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarlycommons.law.northwestern.edu/jclc Part of the Criminal Law Commons, Criminology Commons, and the Criminology and Criminal Justice Commons Recommended Citation August Vollmer, Revision of the Atcherley Modus Operandi System, 10 J. Am. Inst. Crim. L. & Criminology 229 (May 1919 to February 1920) This Article is brought to you for free and open access by Northwestern University School of Law Scholarly Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology by an authorized editor of Northwestern University School of Law Scholarly Commons. REVISION OF TBiUE ATCHERLEY MOD-US OPERANDI SYSTEM AUGUST VOLLMER' An old officer in the police service once said, "There is a clew to every crime. Finding the clew proves that you are working, and not playing in your chosen profession." There is a clew to every crime. The most important and easiest to get, though more often over- looked than found. That clew is the method employed by the criminal in securing his ill-gotten loot. Experienced investigators are alive to the fact that professional criminals are specialists and seldom deviate from their individual methods of attack. Accordingly, they narrow the scope of their investigation, and consider only the criminals likely to commit the kind of offense which has been assigned them for in- vestigation, and some investigators are often able to fix responsibility for the crime in a comparatively short time, due to their knowledge of individual methods of criminal operations. -
H-France Review Vol. 20 (December 2020), No. 209 Theodore Evergates
H-France Review Volume 20 (2020) Page 1 H-France Review Vol. 20 (December 2020), No. 209 Theodore Evergates, Marie of France: Countess of Champagne, 1145-1198. Philadelphia: University of Pennyslvania Press, 2019. ix + 180 pp. Maps, illustrations, notes, bibliography, and index. $69.95 U.S. (cl). ISBN 9780812250770. Kimberly A. LoPrete, National University of Ireland Galway. Ted Evergates has been conversant with the extensive charters and administrative registers of Champagne since the days when computers were programmed with punch cards and his magisterial The Aristocracy in the County of Champagne, 1000–1300 contains many rich fruits of his research.[1] While specialists in medieval France rely on his well-annotated editions of cartularies, including two compiled during the tenure of Countess Blanche and replete with transactions between lay parties,[2] teachers and a new generation of medieval historians are indebted to his 1993 Feudal Society in Medieval France: Documents from the County of Champagne, the first anthology of French records published in English, and his 1997 examination of the “Duby thesis,”’ “The Feudal Imaginary of Georges Duby.”[3] In recent years Evergates has turned to biography, with his 2016 study of Count Henry the Liberal, and, in the book under review, Henry’s wife, Countess Marie of France, who outlived her husband by some seventeen years.[4] This biographical approach, in Evergates’s skilled hands, is to be welcomed not only by scholars, but also by students at all levels--and indeed by general readers or those whose main interests in women’s and social history lie in other times or places. -
The Book of Fortune Paris
BIBLIOTHEQUE INTERNATIONALE DE L'ART THE BOOK OF FORTUNE PARIS. — IMPRIiMERlE DE L'ART J. ROUAM, 1 MIMU M h;U K-lJblTEU R, 4I, R U t I) hJ LA VlCTOlRE EDITION AT 200 EXAMPLES Example 71° BIBLIOTHEQUE INTERNATIONALE DE L'ART THE BOOK OF FORTUNE TWO HUNDRED UNPUBLISHED DRAWINGS BY JEAN COUSIN Reproduced from the original manuscript in the Library of the Institute of France WITH INTRODUCTION AND NOTES BY LiUDoviG L .A- x-i .A- iisr 3sr e: TRANSLATED BY H. MAINM^ARING DUNSTAN LIBRAI RIE DE L'ART PARIS ET LONDON 33, AVENUE DE l'opERA, PARIS 134, NEW BOND STREET, LONDON J. ROUAM, IMPRIMEUR-EDITEUR REMINGTON AND Co, PUBLISHERS I 883 few years ago, while looking over various manu- Institute, scripts preserved in the Library of the it was palpable I chanced upon a book to which possibly that but little attention had been paid, attractive. because its exterior was certainly not calf and It was a quarto volume bound in brown For- in very bad condition. Its title, Emblemata allegorical works tumv, seemed to point to its being one of those tedious most celebrated of which so much in vogue in the sixteenth century, the In it I was agreeably surprised. is that by Alciat'. But on opening prepared to find, it con- addition to the Latin te.xt which I was quite to the French tained two hundred drawings belonging unmistakeably that they School, and a mere glance over them sufficed to show ready for the possessed a high artistic value. The MS. -
Fund Og Forskning I Det Kongelige Biblioteks Samlinger
Digitalt særtryk af FUND OG FORSKNING I DET KONGELIGE BIBLIOTEKS SAMLINGER Bind 53 2014 With summaries KØBENHAVN 2014 UDGIVET AF DET KONGELIGE BIBLIOTEK Om billedet på smudsomslaget se s. 67. Det kronede monogram på kartonomslaget er tegnet af Erik Ellegaard Frederiksen efter et bind fra Frederik 3.s bibliotek Om titelvignetten se s. 171. © Forfatterne og Det Kongelige Bibliotek Redaktion: John T. Lauridsen Redaktionsråd: Else Marie Kofod Erland Kolding Nielsen Anne Ørbæk Jensen Marie Vest Fund og Forskning er et peer-reviewed tidsskrift. Trykt på Munken Premium Cream 13, 115 g Dette papir overholder de i ISO 9706:1994 fastsatte krav til langtidsholdbart papir. Nodesats: Dansk Center for Musikudgivelse & Jakob K. Meile Grafisk tilrettelæggelse: Lene Eklund-Jürgensen & Jakob K. Meile Tryk og indbinding: SpecialTrykkeriet, Viborg ISSN 0069-9896 ISBN 978-87-7023-129-9 INDHOLD Thomas Riis: Kongemordet 1286 . 9 Marina Vidas: Resemblance and Devotion: Image and Text in a Parisian Early Fourteenth–Century Book of Hours Made for a French Noblewoman . 33 Anders Toftgaard: Blandt talende statuer og manende genfærd. Mazarinader i Det Kongelige Biblioteks samlinger . 57 Kristoffer Schmidt: Ludvig Holberg og fejden med Johann Arckenholtz . 113 Marie-Louise Berner: Blomstermaleren på rejse. I.L. Jensens brev fra Paris 1823 . 145 Kirsten Dreyer: Lübeck ligger syd for Kassel. Omkring to breve fra Kamma Rahbek og et mindedigt af Friederike Brun . 169 Harald Ilsøe: Bogligt undertøj. Lidt om danske bogforsatser ca. 1880-1920. 209 Niels Krabbe: Paul von Klenau og hans niende symfoni. Kilderne, værket, receptionen . 229 Svend Larsen: Brødre i ånden. Professionalisering af biblioteksfaget som afspejlet i breve mellem Svend Dahl og Wilhelm Munthe. -
Original Ownership of the Portland State University Book of Hours
Portland State University PDXScholar Texts of Time Special Collections: Rare Books & Manuscripts 2015 02, A Mystery of Belonging: Original Ownership of the Portland State University Book of Hours Shirleanne Ackerman Gahan Portland State University Follow this and additional works at: https://pdxscholar.library.pdx.edu/textsoftime Part of the History of Religion Commons, and the Medieval History Commons Let us know how access to this document benefits ou.y Recommended Citation Gahan, Shirleanne Ackerman, "02, A Mystery of Belonging: Original Ownership of the Portland State University Book of Hours" (2015). Texts of Time. 1. https://pdxscholar.library.pdx.edu/textsoftime/1 This Book is brought to you for free and open access. It has been accepted for inclusion in Texts of Time by an authorized administrator of PDXScholar. Please contact us if we can make this document more accessible: [email protected]. A Mystery of Belonging: Original Ownership of the Portland State University Book of Hours Shirleanne Ackerman Gahan Many famous French Books of Hours were commissioned by kings, queens, and other members of the nobility. These patrons owned beautifully crafted Books of Hours that have been the subject of much scholarly research. Towards the end of the fifteenth century, people of lesser social status, such as clerics, merchants, and civil servants were also able to acquire Books of Hours.1 Their books were often “less carefully designed,” with fewer illuminations, and purchased on the open market of Paris, which was the center of book production during this time.2 Sometimes bourgeois patrons wrote their names in their Books of Hours as a sort of record keeping for births, baptisms, marriages, and deaths.3 Determining patronage of bourgeois Books of Hours becomes a complex task for historians when there are no identifying marks within the book. -
Plimpton Collection of Dramas 1675-1920 (Bulk 1850-1900)
AMHERST COLLEGE ARCHIVES AND SPECIAL COLLECTIONS Plimpton Collection of Dramas 1675-1920 (bulk 1850-1900) Summary: A collection of 1429 plays, largely from nineteenth century American and Brisish popular theater. Quantity: 14 linear feet Listed by: Neha Wadia, AC 2013, Student Assistant Note: These plays are cataloged in the Amherst College online catalog. To find the complete listing in the catalog, do a basic keyword search for “Plimpton collection of dramas”. Individual plays can be searched by title and author. The call number for the collection is PN6111.P5 © 2013 Amherst College Archives and Special Collections Page 1 Plimpton Collection of Dramas INTRODUCTION THE PLIMPTON COLLECTION OF PLAYS by Curtis Canfield Originally published in the Amherst Graduates’ Quarterly, May 1932 Mr. George A. Plimpton, ’76, recently presented to the college a large collection of material relating to the English and American theatre of the nineteenth century. More than 1200 plays are represented in the collection in addition to numerous playbills, programs, libretti, histories, and after-pieces, as well as an autographed photograph of Edwin Booth as Richelieu. The collection seems to have been a part of the extensive theatrical library of Mr. Edward Boltwood of Pittsfield, whose father was born in Amherst in 1839 and moved to Pittsfield in 1870. Mr. Boltwood, although an active member of the Berkshire bar, made the theatre his avocation and found time to write a number of small pieces for the stage, one of which is included in the present collection. He was also instrumental in establishing the William Parke Stock Company in Pittsfield, and continued his connection with this company by writing reviews of its plays.