sign in sign up
<<
Home , Ash Carter, Juliette Kayyem, Susan Rice, Syra Madad

Robert and Renée Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs Annual Report 2020

ANNUAL REPORT 2020 a The Robert and Renée Belfer CONTENTS Center for Science and International Affairs CORE

From the Director...... 1

Annual Report Center-Wide Activities...... 8 2020 Publications & Communications...... 12

DIRECTOR PROJECT UPDATES [email protected] Arctic Initiative...... 18

CO-DIRECTOR Avoiding Great Power War...... 19 [email protected] Cyber Project...... 20

Defending Digital Democracy...... 21 EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR Aditi Kumar Defense Project...... 22 [email protected] Economic Diplomacy Initiative...... 23 DIRECTOR OF GLOBAL COMMUNICATIONS AND STRATEGY Environment and Natural Resources...... 24 Josh Burek [email protected] Europe and the Transatlantic Relationship...... 25

Future of Diplomacy...... 26

Geopolitics of Energy...... 27

Harvard Project on Climate Agreements...... 28

Homeland Security / Security and Global Health...... 29

Intelligence Project...... 30

International Security Journal...... 31

International Security Program...... 32

Korea Project...... 33

Managing the Atom...... 34

Middle East Initiative...... 35

Russia Matters...... 36

Science, Technology, and Public Policy...... 37

Technology and Public Purpose...... 38

U.S.- Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism...... 39

b DIRECTOR’S FOREWORD

Madame Florence Parly, Minister of the Armed Forces of France, at a January 28 event with Ash Carter.

From the Director

What a year. Director Juliette Kayyem trained 700 co-hosted a conference on creating an mayors and municipal leaders in emergen- Arctic more resilient to climate change. 2020 challenged the world, and the cy management. Science, Technology, and And our Intelligence Project convened Belfer Center, in profound ways. Public Policy Program Co-Director John over 600 people for a timely discussion Holdren mobilized a team that published on how the intelligence community can And yet this difficult year also illustrated rapid reports on response. And increase diversity. how our community responds to chal- Lauren Zabierek and Maria Barsallo lenges. A Center dedicated to advancing Lynch analyzed potential solutions for Key to meeting our mission is recruiting, policy-relevant knowledge and to men- digital contact tracing efforts. training, and retaining students, staff, toring the next generation of leaders has and fellows with diverse experiences never felt more relevant. Though we miss Even as we responded to this overwhelm- and backgrounds. We believe that being seeing each other in person, we success- ing public need, we continued our im- a diverse and inclusive organization is fully pivoted to remote research, learning, pactful work on dozens of other critical not only morally right but is also central and development. In fact, we are reaching research areas. The Defending Digital to our ability to achieve our mission. In more people than ever before with virtual Democracy Project trained election 2020, the senseless killings of George programming on the pandemic, climate officials on how to better safeguard the Floyd, Breonna Taylor, and many other change, diversity in the 2020 elections. The Future of Diplomacy Black reminded us that there enterprise, election security, international Project envisioned a 21st century foreign can be no international security without relations, and much more. service, while the Project on Europe and real human security at home. the Transatlantic Relationship outlined a With our focus on science and interna- path to strengthen the U.S.-European alli- Our goal is to promote historically un- tional affairs, the Belfer Center was well ance. TAPP highlighted innovations that derrepresented groups within the Belfer positioned to respond to the coronavirus serve the public good in a new Spotlight Center and within the field of science pandemic. Homeland Security Project award ceremony. The Arctic Initiative and international affairs—something that

ANNUAL REPORT 2020 1 DIRECTOR’S FOREWORD

requires an all-hands-on-deck approach. Along with these emotions, though, I Center’s video series “Questions from Over the summer, we asked every team find myself feeling hope. Because for all Quarantine”—to share her expertise. here to outline priorities for promoting the challenges we face, we also see the diversity, inclusion, and belonging. Our promise of a better tomorrow. I am proud “My focus has always been on what do we Center is working hard to identify blind to be leading a Center that is dedicated to do in response to the pandemic,” Kayyem spots, build capacity for diverse voices, and building a more secure, peaceful world. said. “This was a 50-state homeland address roadblocks to genuine equality And I am grateful to be working with security disaster, with less-than-optimal and justice in our programming. Thanks colleagues who are committed to building national planning.” to data gathered by each of our teams, we a better future, together. know that, while we have a long way to go, Kayyem joined more than 700 mayors and we are making substantial progress. municipal leaders from around the world Responding to last spring for two-hour sessions This has been an emotional year. Like you, the Pandemic on emergency management and crisis I suspect, I have felt gratitude for front-line communications. The sessions, hosted by health care workers, grocery store clerks, the Bloomberg Harvard City Leadership and other essential workers who put Many of our teams held events and Initiative, also gave the mayors the themselves at risk while taking care of us; published vital knowledge about the opportunity to share their experiences and anger at the elected officials who failed to pandemic; I will highlight just four to build an important network. lead the nation through the pandemic with examples here. competence or compassion; and sorrow for Former President ’s Science those we have lost, too often without getting First, Juliette Kayyem used all the tools Advisor, , also sprung into to say a proper goodbye. in her media kit—, a column action. In March, Holdren called together in , CNN, and the Belfer his former colleagues at the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) and they agreed to meet weekly via Zoom to write six new reports, focusing on improving America’s capacity to deal with subsequent waves of COVID-19 and future .

The reports, which are online at opcast. org, have been shared with pandemic leaders in Washington, the Biden-Harris team, members of Congress, governors, other opinion leaders in the public health domain, and the media.

Next, the Technology and Public Purpose (TAPP) Project’s Amritha Jayanti and Colin O’Leary authored a report analyzing the efficacy, accessibility, and research ethics of COVID-19 testing and treatment March 2020: Juliette Kayyem speaks to mayors and city officials from the HBX Live studio as part of a series of Zoom sessions on emergency management and crisis communications in responding to the technologies. TAPP also curated a list of coronavirus pandemic. COVID-19 Digital Resources, elevating projects and initiatives that worked to

2 BELFER CENTER FOR SCIENCE AND INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS DIRECTOR’S FOREWORD

mitigate some of the devastating social effects of the pandemic.

Finally, the Executive Director of the Cyber Project, Lauren Zabierek, and the Executive Director of the Defending Digital Democracy Project, Maria Barsallo Lynch, convened a Special Working Group on the Gov- ernment-Tech Partnership to Track COVID-19 to discuss and analyze digital contact tracing solutions, then published an analysis of digital contact tracing tools and methods.

February 25, 2020: Former U.S. Secretary of State joins Nicholas Burns and Torrey Taussig before a conversation about Kerry’s most consequential negotiations as Secretary. The event was part of the American Secretaries of State Project, a joint venture between The Future of Diplomacy Project at HKS, Building a Diverse The Program on Negotiation at HLS, and the Negotiation Roundtable/Harvard Negotiation Project at HBS. and Inclusive Center

security issue and how to foster a diverse the Center each year with their range of Diversity, inclusion, and belonging have intelligence community. expertise and experience. been longstanding commitments of the Belfer Center. Amid a year of racial We are working to widen our community Also, the Center plans to continue reckoning, the Center redoubled our to include more scholars from minority the monthly Diversity, Inclusion, and efforts to strengthen this work. groups and are broadening our research to Belonging discussion groups launched in study policy impacts on minority groups. 2020 by staff members Erika Manouselis, Along with Co-Director Eric Rosenbach One example is our Arctic Initiative, which Karen Ejiofor, and Amritha Jayanti to and Executive Director Aditi Kumar, is working closely with indigenous groups share best practices across our collective we’ve been soliciting input from Belfer in the Arctic—including reindeer herd- efforts such as recruitment, hiring, and faculty, fellows, staff, and students on how ers—on climate related impacts. mentoring. to cultivate a more inclusive and diverse culture at the Center. As faculty members develop their syllabi for class readings and invited lecturers, Strengthening Key to our efforts is increasing diversity in they are committed to incorporating Programs our programming. As just one example, more scholars from underrepresented Paul Kolbe, Director of the Intelligence groups. Several new HKS courses, such as Project, Caitlin Chase, Intelligence Project Linda Bilmes’s class with Cornell Brooks Of course, the great ongoing work at the Coordinator, and Lauren Zabierek, on reparations for Black Americans, are Center did not stop during the pandemic. Executive Director of the Cyber Project, tackling race and policy head on. This report offers details on each of our hosted a two-day virtual conference, projects, programs, and initiatives in the “Agents of Change: Driving a More Internally, we are re-evaluating our pages that follow; allow me to give short Diverse and Capable Intelligence Com- fellowship pipeline to make sure we are updates on three projects. munity,” to discuss diversity as a national reaching diverse audiences of potential pre- and post-doctoral fellows who enrich

ANNUAL REPORT 2020 3 Comey, the former FBI Director; Flor- ence Parly, Minister of the Armed Forces of France, Representatives Elissa Slotkin and Joaquin Castro; Sue Gordon, the former Principal Deputy Director of National Intelligence; Bill McKibben, a climate activist; , the former Director of National Intelligence; Senator Tim Kaine; Stacey Dixon, the Deputy Director of the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency; Michèle Flournoy, former Undersecretary of Defense for Policy; Soumya Swamina-

February 4, 2020: U.S. Representative Elissa Slotkin (MI-8), speaks to students about her career in than, the World Health Organization’s national service spanning roles at the CIA, in the White House, at the Office of the Director of National Chief Scientist; Fiona Hill, former Senior Intelligence, at , and currently in Congress. Caitlin Keliher moderated the event. Director for European and Russian Affairs on the National Security Council; The Defending Digital Democracy Over the course of Fall 2020, the Arctic Margrethe Vestager, Executive Vice Project (D3P) trained federal, state, and Resilience Forum (ARF) organized President of the European Commission; local election officials on how to protect regular sessions to strengthen coop- Jon Huntsman, Jr., former U.S. Ambas- their systems and data from malicious eration on resilience-related work and sador to , Russia, and Singapore; actors. D3P also published “The Election discuss best practices and experiences and Jennifer Griffin and Anna Fifield, Influence Operations Playbook,” a with scientists, circumpolar experts, and journalists at and The Wash- definitive guide to help steel election indigenous populations. ARF was hosted ington Post, respectively. officials against threats to our democracy. by the Icelandic Chairmanship of the The team also developed an authoritative Arctic Council and co-organized by the Harvard was one of the first universities dataset on state-by-state election informa- Sustainable Development Working Group to pivot to distance learning at the onset tion that was widely used by journalists, of the Arctic Council and the Arctic of the pandemic. The Kennedy School public leaders, and voters. Initiative at the Belfer Center, led by hasn’t just moved its courses online. Halla Logadóttir. We have reimagined every element of The Technology and Public Purpose our teaching to maximize learning and (TAPP) Project, led by Director Laura development in a Zoom environment. Manley, launched two new initiatives in Coming Together 2020: the Tech Spotlight, a partnership in a Virtual World with WIRED that recognizes projects Generating and initiatives that demonstrate a Knowledge, commitment to public purpose; and the While we missed the opportunity to see Technology and Public Purpose Fellow- one another in person for much of the Shaping Policy ship, which seeks to train fellows from the year, our virtual programs convened public, private, and not-for-profit sectors an even wider group of policymakers, Even while working virtually, our to carry out tech policy and practitioner experts, and advocates than usual. community of scholars and researchers analysis with a public purpose lens. published a remarkable number of Among the many guests we invited policy-relevant books and reports. to Belfer events this year were James

4 BELFER CENTER FOR SCIENCE AND INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS The Center contributed over 80 pieces of Belfer Center scholars published original research this year. One consistent several books, including Dara theme that spanned programs and projects Kay Cohen’s Lynching and Local was revitalization. As just two examples, Justice: Legitimacy and Account- the Future of Diplomacy Project’s Ambas- ability in Weak States, Juliette sador Nicholas Burns, Marc Grossman, Kayyem’s Beyond 9/11: Home- and Marcie Ries published “A U.S. land Security for the Twenty-First Diplomatic Service for the 21st Century,” Century, Frederik Logevall’s JFK: a set of recommendations to modernize Coming of Age in the American February 27, 2020: Marsin Alshamary, Research Fellow with the Foreign Service. The incoming Biden Century, Joe Nye’s Do Morals the Middle East Initiative and a PhD candidate in Political Science at MIT, speaks on “ The Politics of Preachers: administration was briefed on the report, Matter?, and Robert Zoellick’s Understanding Clerical Participation in Iraqi Protests.” which was widely circulated throughout America in the World: A History of all of the relevant government agencies. U.S. Diplomacy and . Public Purpose Fellows, our Belfer Young And the TAPP Project’s Mike Miesen and Leaders, and our Allison Fellows. Laura Manley published their second report on Congress’s science and tech- Recognizing Our Among the talented individuals to join us nology capacity, “Building a 21st Century Community as Senior Fellows in 2020 were Anthony Congress: Improving STEM Policy Advice Foxx, the U.S. Secretary of Transportation in the Emerging Technology Era,” which from 2013 to 2017, Gen. , argued for new approaches to emerging The outputs and accomplishments of Chairman of the from technology policy advice. Belfer reflect the outstanding individuals 2015 to 2019, and Sue Gordon, Principal who are conducting and coordinating Deputy Director of National Intelligence A second theme was climate action. research at our Center, including fellows, in ODNI from 2015 to 2019. As two examples, Joseph Aldy of the faculty, and staff. Harvard Project on Climate Agreements The Center welcomed Francesca published “Three Prongs for Prudent This year, the Belfer Center welcomed its Giovannini as the Project on Managing Climate Policy,” a discussion paper that largest-ever class of research fellows— the Atom’s new Executive Director, analyzed social radiation management. over 240 talented individuals. Thanks to along with a number of other new staff Nicola De Blasio of the Environment and generous gifts from donors, we were able members who have brought fresh energy Natural Resources Program published to launch several inaugural fellowship and expertise to our community. Many a report on renewable hydrogen, “Geo- cohorts, including our Technology and have moved smoothly into their new political and Market Implications of Renewable Hydrogen.”

Human rights was also a focus. Berthold Beitz Professor in Human Rights Professor Erica Chenoweth’s work on the impact of political violence and civil resistance was widely discussed throughout the year as Black Lives Matter and other protest movements spread across the U.S. and the world.

December 18, 2020: The Belfer Center’s Aditi Kumar and Eric Rosenbach congratulate Erika Manouselis, Karen Ejiofor, and Amritha Jayanti on winning the 2020 Peggy Scannel Award for their ongoing efforts to foster Center-wide discussions on diversity, inclusion, and belonging.

ANNUAL REPORT 2020 5 DIRECTOR’S FOREWORD

jobs without having physically met their a constant bright presence at the Center. colleagues yet. Dorothy Zinberg, one of the Belfer Center’s founders, was a pillar of our We are also delighted to see several Belfer community and a mentor to generations affiliates answer the call to public service. of scientists, with a particular impact In the upcoming Biden-Harris adminis- on women. Martin Malin, the former tration, a number of our Senior Fellows Executive Director of the Project on have been nominated to senior positions: Managing the Atom, was a mentor to as National Security countless nuclear scholars. Bob Frosch Advisor; Elizabeth Sherwood-Randall as joined us to improve R&D systems when Homeland Security Adviser and Dep- the Cold War ended and stayed on to uty National Security Adviser; Wendy help develop solutions to innumerable Sherman as Deputy Secretary of State; other challenges. And Saeb Erekat, a as Under Secretary former Fisher Family Fellow, spent his of State for Political Affairs; Samantha career attempting to find a diplomatic Power as Administrator of USAID; Susan solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Rice as Director of the Domestic Policy Although they are no longer with us, Council; Michael Sulmeyer as Senior these individuals will always hold a Director for Cyber, NSC; Amanda Sloat special place in our hearts. as Senior Director for Europe with the NSC; Sasha Baker as Sr. Director for As I write this, we are wrapping up one Strategic Planning, NSC; Kurt Campbell of the most tumultuous and challenging as Coordinator for the Indo-Pacific, years in recent history. 2021 will un- NSC; and as Director doubtedly bring its share of crises and of Office of Science and Technology challenges. But with the distribution of Policy; Science Adviser. Former Senior safe and effective vaccines now beginning, Fellow has been selected as this coming year is poised to be a year of Deputy Attorney General. Former Fellow renewal—and perhaps an opportunity to Yohannes Abraham led the Biden-Harris redefine what normal can, should, and transition team’s operations and Bonnie must be. As ever, Eric, Aditi, and I are Jenkins was named Under Secretary for grateful for the Belfer team, and for the Arms Control and International Security opportunity to work with all of you to do Affairs. Carmen Reinhart, a Belfer Board our part to create a safer, more just, and Member, was recently named the Chief more equitable world for us all. Economist and Vice President of the World Bank.

Finally, I want to memorialize five members of the Belfer family we lost this year. Patricia McLaughlin, John Holdren’s beloved former assistant, was Ash Carter

6 BELFER CENTER FOR SCIENCE AND INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS Professional Perspective

January 28, 2020: Sue Gordon, Former Principal Deputy Director of National Intelligence and a Senior Fellow with the Intelligence Project, speaks at a Belfer Center Board Lunch.

ANNUAL REPORT 2020 7 CENTER-WIDE BRIEF Center-Wide Activities

Policy discussions Fred Logevall on “How history offers awards tuition support to 20 incoming guidance for policymakers navigating MPP students who commit to pursuing The Belfer Center is dedicated to engag- through current crises.” public service. Student fellows work ing HKS and the broader academic com- directly with a faculty mentor and munity with research and programming research teams to contribute to our on topics including technology, energy, Fellows policy research. They also participate in cybersecurity, defense, diplomacy, and professional development workshops the environment. Throughout the year, The Center welcomed 115 new members. and discussions with faculty, alumni, the Center organizes and supports Former Secretary of Transportation and practitioners. Recent session guests programs for students, faculty, fellows, joined us as a Senior included Ash Carter, Eric Rosenbach, staff, and the public. Fellow, along with Daniela Schwarzer and . (Project on Europe and the Transatlantic Each semester, we host weekly meetings Relationship), and Susan Gordon (Intelli- of the Belfer Board. Members and guests gence Project). We also appointed three Belfer Summer discuss cutting-edge research and Core Fellows: Sasha Baker, Syra Madad, Research Assistants developments in the field of science and and Mary Elizabeth Taylor. international affairs. Speakers in 2020 Internship Program included Dr. Soumya Swaminathan, Chief Scientist at the WHO; Rep. Joaquin Cas- Belfer Young Leaders Last summer, as HKS students faced tro; Dr. Fiona Hill; and Sec. Mac Warner, and Graham T. Allison cancelled internships and job opportuni- Secretary of State of West Virginia. ties, we welcomed our inaugural class of Student Fellows 45 Summer Research Assistants. Interns The Belfer Policy Chats series convenes partnered with the Center’s teams for fellows to examine policy challenges The Belfer Center’s student fellowship research and mentorship opportunities. from multiple research disciplines and programs help prepare high-achieving They also took part in biweekly co- perspectives. Past discussions have HKS students for leadership positions hort-wide speaker sessions, professional brought together Arctic Initiative in the international affairs and national development opportunities, and other Fellows on “Arctic Change,” International security arenas. In September, the Cen- programming. Security Fellows on “China’s Rise,” and ter launched a new student fellowship, Technology and Public Purpose Fellows the Graham T. Allison, Jr., fellowship, to on “AI and Ethics.” expand national security research and Student Support mentorship opportunities directly with In addition, the Center’s Bullet Points Professor Allison. Mentoring tomorrow’s leaders is a pillar series features faculty members sum- of our mission. In addition to student marizing key research areas into 5 bullet The Belfer Young Leaders fellowship, fellowships, the Center provides students points. Featured speakers included Erica newly renamed from the Belfer Inter- the opportunity to serve as research Chenoweth on “Civil Resistance and national and Global Affairs fellowship, assistants to Senior Fellows and research Protest Movements,” Jeffrey Frankel on continues to support student research teams. The Center also provides funding “A Strong Post-COVID Economy,” and and development. The fellowship support for research grants to support

8 BELFER CENTER FOR SCIENCE AND INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS CENTER-WIDE BRIEF

Belfer Center Core Staff, 2020

DIRECTOR Ash Carter

CO-DIRECTOR Eric Rosenbach

EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR Aditi Kumar

COMMUNICATIONS

DIRECTOR OF GLOBAL COMMUNICATIONS & STRATEGY Josh Burek April 28, 2020: Former Ambassador to the United Nations speaks with students during a Women in Defense, Development, and Diplomacy (W3D) digital seminar. ASSOCIATE DIRECTOR OF COMMUNICATIONS Sharon Wilke MPP students working on their capstone Foundation. AFC organized seminars Policy Analysis Exercise (PAE). This past that focus on challenges in command PUBLISHING MANAGER Andrew Facini fall, the Center provided funding across control and leadership in their “For the nine PAE grants to help students develop Common Defense” series. MULTIMEDIA PRODUCER their policy recommendations and Benn Craig address strategic management issues. Sponsored students are tackling a range DIGITAL COMMUNICATIONS COORDINATOR International Council Julie Balise of issues, including how to retain a di- verse and representative U.S. Diplomatic The International Council is a prestigious Corps, balance security and prosperity in group of senior business leaders and FINANCE the European Union’s data governance of former government officials who FINANCE DIRECTOR AI, and elevate equity in the UK’s public support our mission. Throughout 2020, Guy Keeley discourse on climate change. we held regular briefings with members

on timely topics. In November, we held FINANCIAL ASSOCIATE The Center consistently funds con- our annual meeting, which featured Lovita Strain ferences, including the Women in a keynote address from former Pepsi Power Conference and the Black Policy CEO Indra Nooyi and a briefing to map OPERATIONS Conference, as well as student organi- objectives for the Biden administration’s zations such as Women in Diplomacy, first 100 Days. This meeting showcased ASSOCIATE DIRECTOR OF OPERATIONS Defense, and Development (W3D) and our remarkable practitioner-scholars Sarah Donahue the Armed Forces Committee (AFC). who help connect the world of academ- OPERATIONS COORDINATOR W3D formed an Advisory Council with ic research with policy and governance. Grace Headinger the Center’s Cathryn Clϋver Ashbrook, We welcomed several new members,

Farah Pandith, and Eric Rosenbach, and including Mansoor Al-Mahmoud, hosted lunch discussions with Future Violette Khairallah Safadi, Kerry Healey, of Diplomacy Senior Fellow Amb. Paula Karen Harris, Brooke Carr, and Reid Dobriansky and Bernadette Meehan, the Maclellan. Chief International Officer at the Obama

ANNUAL REPORT 2020 9 10 BELFER CENTER FOR SCIENCE AND INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS Sounding the Alarm

March 9, 2020: Fran Ulmer, Arctic Initiative Senior Fellow, presents on “Geopolitical Implications of the Rapidly Changing Arctic” during an Energy Policy Seminar

ANNUAL REPORT 2020 11 CENTER COMMUNICATIONS

Publications & Communications A Center dedicated to real-world impact journalists from around the world. With to help journalists track various election depends on strong relationships with nearly 230,000 page views a month, along counting procedures across all 50 states. the world’s leading media organizations. with a time-on-research page average In December, the Center published its first A great deal of our research reaches of over four minutes, BelferCenter.org all-digital newsletter, highlighting our recent the public through broadcast and print is a leading source of relevant research activities on issues ranging from climate interviews with our scholars, and the for policymakers, government officials, change to transatlantic relations. pieces of commentary they write. academics, students, and the media. Some of the most-read reports from the past year Our presence on social media continued The Center had a strong year sharing include “Dismay and Disappointment—A to expand this year. Our Twitter followers insights via commentary and interviews Breach of Sacred Trust” by Vincent K. increased 15%, to 28,900, while our this year. Leading websites and newspapers Brooks, “National Digital Currencies: The Facebook likes grew 6% to 14,827. Drawing published over 500 pieces of analysis and Future of Money?” by Aditi Kumar and on the strength of our short, timely opinion from our scholars in 2020. In the Economic Diplomacy Initiative team, commentary, along with evergreen content particular, we published 75 op-eds over this and “A U.S. Diplomatic Service for the 21st that continues to draw strong organic period in the nation’s most-competitive Century” by Ambassadors Nicholas Burns, search traffic, our lifetime YouTube views outlets: , The Wall Street Marc Grossman, and Marcie Ries. reached 2,714,361, a yearly gain of 32%. Journal, and . Meanwhile, the Center’s LinkedIn profile To aggregate the Center’s many pieces of grew by 53% to 4,400 followers. Center scholars also hosted 295 events research on the global pandemic, we created The following pages of publication listings provide a during this stretch, published 79 reports a special online COVID-19 page. In the glimpse of the extraordinary range and influence of and papers, and testified before legislatures same vein of developing timely resources, the Center’s scholars. three times. These events attracted record the Center’s Defending Digital Democracy numbers of attendees, including top project launched a public-facing spreadsheet

International Security Crisis Reader belfercenter.org/IS U.S. Killing of Iranian Commander GEOPOLITICS OF ENERGY PROJECT Qassim Suleimani

What Happened?

On January 3, 2020, an American drone strike near Baghdad airport killed Major General Qassim Suleimani, Green Ambitions, the longtime commander of the Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The incident followed an increasingly tense exchange of attacks between Iranian-backed Iraqi militias and the U.S. military, which included a violent demonstration by members and supporters of the former against the U.S. embassy in Brown Realities Baghdad. The assassination of Suleimani—a senior and prominent figure in the Iranian regime and across the region—represents a large-scale and dangerous escalation in tensions between Washington and Tehran. PROJECT ON MANAGING THE ATOM Making Sense of Renewable Want to Dig Deeper? Investment Strategies in the Gulf The editors of International Security have selected the following articles as excellent starting points to help achieve a greater understanding of the crisis at hand: ## ON THE ORIGINS AND IMPLICATIONS OF NORMS AGAINST INTERNATIONAL ASSASSINATION: Juergen Braunstein The Strategic ||disinformation; •||election “Norms and Security: meddling; The Case of International Assassination” ||intelligenceWard Thomas (Summer 2000) & policy; (Translation) CLEARED 2020-01-30||espionage Postures of ON THE HISTORICAL FOUNDATIONS OF ’S FOREIGN POLICY AND APPROACH TO NUCLEAR WEAPONS: PROJECT ON EUROPE AND THE TRANSATLANTIC RELATIONSHIP • “What the Iran- War Tells Us about the Future of the Iran Nuclear Deal” The Intelligence Project seeksAriane M.to Tabatabai build and Annie a Tracy Samuel (Summer 2017) China and ON A HYPOTHETICAL SCENARIO OF AN IRANIAN REPRISAL IN THE PERSIAN GULF:

new generation of intelligence• “Closing practitioners Time: Assessing the Iranian Threat to the Strait of Hormuz” Caitlin Talmadge (Summer 2008) A Visual Guide prepared to serve in a rapidly changing world Stronger ON WHY INDIVIDUAL LEADERS CHOOSE BETWEEN DIFFERENT INTERVENTION STRATEGIES: • “Transformative Choices: Leaders and the Origins of Intervention Strategy” Frank O’Donnell and to “Intelligence Study Group”Elizabeth N. Saunders (Fall help 2009) Alex Bollfrass future policymakers and intelligence.ON WHY FOREIGN-IMPOSED REGIME CHANGE CARRIES SUBSTANTIAL RISKS: Together • “You Can’t Always Get What You Want: Why Foreign-Imposed Regime Change All manner of new consumers willSeldom understand Improves Interstate Relations” Alexander B. DownesThe and Lindsey A.Election O’Rourke (Fall 2016) A Strategy to Revitalize how best to Thursdays, 4:15 pm interact with Transatlantic Power Influence Operations REPORT the February 13 to April 23 intelligence to gain JANUARY 2020 One Brattle Square, Room 350 somethingPlaybook we are calling decision advantage. For State and Local Election Officials Building on multi-disciplinary researchPart being 2: conducted at the Belfer Center, the IntelligenceMis/Disinformation Response Plan REPORT MARCH 2020 Project links intelligence agencies with Belfer activities beneficial for apply now: belfercenter.org/IntelStudyGroup researchers, Faculty, and Kennedy School

REPORT DECEMBER 2020 students, to enrich their education and impact

(1) CLEARED 2020-01-30 A selection of Belfer Center

reports, events materials, and DEFENDING DIGITAL DEMOCRACY SEPTEMBER 2020 our homepage.

12 BELFER CENTER FOR SCIENCE AND INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS SELECTED PUBLICATIONS

AVOIDING GREAT POWER WAR PROJECT Allison, Graham and Clement, Joel. “Trump’s Rushed Oil Leasing Kumar, Aditi. “Defending U.S. Digital Dominance,” in Is China Beating . “Is China in the Arctic: A Dumpster Fire of Desperation, “Domestic and International (Dis)Order: A Strategic the U.S. to AI Supremacy? Beating the U.S. to AI Greed, and Crippling Loyalty Tests.” Union of Response,” Aspen Strategy Group, October 2020. Supremacy?” Paper, Belfer Concerned Scientists, November 25, 2020. Eric Schmidt Center, August 2020. Lee, Henry and Abigail Mayer. “The Future of Carbon Clüver Ashbrook, Cathryn.“The Trump Legacy and Its Offset Markets.” Policy Brief, October 22, 2020. Consequences.” Internationale Politik, March 1,

2020. THE ARCTIC INITIATIVE | THE POLAR INSTITUTE PAPER AUGUST 2020 Logadóttir, Halla Hrund, Policy and Action on Plastic in the David Balton, Brittany Cohen, Dara Kay and Danielle F. Arctic Ocean Janis, Marisol Maddox October 2019 Jung. Lynching and Local Justice: Workshop Summary & and Fran Ulmer. “Policy Legitimacy and Accountability Recommendations and Action on Plastic in Barsallo Lynch, Maria and Lauren Zabierek . David Balton Brittany Janis in Weak States. Cambridge, Halla Hrund Logaddottir the Arctic Ocean: October “Considerations for Digital Contact Tracing Tools Marisol Maddox for COVID-19 Mitigation: Recommendations for England: Cambridge University Fran Ulmer 2019 Workshop Summary Press, September 2020. & Recommendations,”

Stakeholders and Policymakers.” Paper, June 2020. PAPER MARCH 2020 April 2020.

Bilmes, Linda.“Who is Rescuing America’s National Parks? Trump.” The Boston Globe, July 27, 2020. De Blasio, Nicola and Fridolin Pflugmann. “Is China’s Logevall, Fredrik. JFK: Coming of Age in the Hydrogen Economy Coming?”, July 28, 2020. American Century, 1917–1956. Penguin Random Bourdeaux, Margaret, Gbemisola Abiola, Ben Edgar, House, 2020. James Pershing, Joyce Wang, Margot Van Loon and Bruce Schneier. “Weaponizing Digital Health Frankel, Jeffrey.“ Will Lead the Intelligence.” Paper, Belfer Center, January 2020. US Back to International Cooperation.” Manley, Laura, and Mike Miesen. “Building a 21st The Guardian, December 2, 2020. Century Congress: Improving STEM Policy Advice in the Emerging Technology Era.” November 2020. Brooks, Vincent K. .”Dismay and Disappointment—A Breach of Sacred Trust.” Belfer Center, June 4, 2020. Gallagher, K.S. and L.D. Anadon, “DOE Budget Authority for Energy Research, Development, and Marks, Zoe. “In a Global Emergency, Women HOMELAND SECURITY POLICY PAPER #5 Demonstration Database,” Fletcher School of Law Closing Critical Gaps that Hinder Bruggeman, Nate and are Showing How to Homeland Security Technology Innovation and Diplomacy, Tufts University; Department of Nate Bruggeman* and Ben Rohrbaugh† Ben Rohrbaugh. “Closing Lead.” The Washington

Authors’ Note Land Economy, Center for Environment, Energy and We drafted this paper before the full extent of the coronavirus/COVID-19 pandemic became clear. We have been deeply concerned about Critical Gaps that Hinder the homeland security enterprise’s approach to technological innovation for over a decade. The pandemic has only served to confirm our Post, April 21, 2020. concerns. COVID-19 has overwhelmed the response systems of the United States and clearly shown the scale of the federal government’s underinvestment in public safety technology. From developing testing capacity to producing medical supplies to rapidly expanding Natural Resource Governance (C-EENRG), University treatment capacity to developing a vaccine, the federal government has been unable to lead. The country instead relies on a patchwork of federal, state, local, and private sector resources to respond to a widespread public health emergency. Homeland Security

Stories are emerging of potentially lifesaving research or developed technologies that are not in place because of shortsighted decisions or budget cuts. One illustrative example is the U.S Department of Health and Human Services’ flirtation with and ultimate abandonment of Cambridge; and Belfer Center. July 8, 2020. of an initiative to improve facemask readiness.1 For its part, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has had a minimal public role in providing any kind of public safety technology in this crisis. The issues attendant to responding to the virus are only the most recent, Technology Innovation.” dramatic example of the innovation challenges facing the DHS and the broader homeland security enterprise. We are hopeful that, when the pandemic subsides, policymakers will pay particular attention to the government’s technology and innovation deficits. Paper, April 23, 2020. Gordon, Susan .“The foreign foes who want to

* Nate Bruggeman held senior policy positions at the U.S. Department of Homeland Security and U.S. Customs and Border Protection addressing border se- curity, law enforcement intelligence, and U.S-Mexico engagement. He has also had a distinguished legal career, most recently at the Colorado Department of Law and previously in private practice. Bruggeman is a Fellow at the Belfer Center’s Homeland Security Project and the Executive Editor of its Homeland Security Policy Paper Series undermine America are getting help — from Masoud, Tarek.“A Fragile State.” Harvard † Ben Rohrbaugh has been at the forefront of border and supply chain security and advancing U.S.-Mexico relations for a decade. Rohrbaugh held senior policy positions at the U.S. Department of Homeland Security and U.S. Customs and Border Protection, and he was a Director on the White House’s National Security Council where he developed policy on border and supply chain security issues. Rohrbaugh is currently a Fellow at the Strauss Center for International Security and Law at the University of Texas-Austin.

Rohrbaugh is also a founder of a startup company, Lantern UAS, which develops systems using aerial drones for screening cargo containers. Lantern UAS has worked through DHS-sponsored funding mechanisms to support its research. America.” The Washington Post, September 8, 2020. Kennedy School Magazine, February 4, 2020. BELFERCENTER.ORG/HOMELANDSECURITY | APRIL 2020 1

Cassel, Christine, Christopher Chyba, Susan Graham, Miller, Steven E., and Matthew Bunn. “Martin B. Malin, John P. Holdren, Eric Lander, Richard C. Levin, Nuclear Policy Community-builder Par Excellence.” Bunn, Matthew, Laura S. H. Holgate, Dmitry Ed Penhoet, Maxine Savitz and Harold Varmus. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, May 11, 2020. Kovchegin, Nickolas Roth and William H. Tobey. “Summaries of Findings and Recommendations “IAEA Nuclear Security Recommendations from Six Reports on COVID-19 Response.” (INFCIRC/225): The Next Generation.” Paper, Institute Mowatt-Larssen, Rolf. A State of Mind: for Nuclear Materials Management, July 2020. Faith and the CIA. BookBaby, 2020. House, Karen.“Oil Becomes a Risky Game for Saudis.” , May 17, 2020. Burns, Nicholas, Marc Grossman and Marcie Kamat, Ajinkya, Ambuj D. Sagar and Venkatesh Ries. “A U.S. Diplomatic Service for the 21st “Venky” Narayanamurti. “Linkages between Century.” Belfer Center, November 2020. Kolbe, Paul, Caitlin Chase, Calder Walton, and the Indian Innovation System and MNE R&D contributors. “An Intelligence Agenda for a Centers in India.” Discussion Paper 2020- New Administration.” December 17, 2020. 01, Belfer Center, September 2020. Carter, Ash and Frank Doyle. “Boston Tech Hub Faculty Working Group Annual Report 2019-2020.” September 2020. Lawson, Chappell, Alan Bersin, and Juliette Nuland, Victoria. “Pinning Down Putin.” N. Kayyem, eds. Beyond 9/11: Homeland , June 9, 2020. Security for the Twenty-First Century. Chenoweth, Erica. “The Future of Nonviolent Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, August 2020. Resistance.” Journal of Democracy, vol. Nye, Joseph. Do Morals Matter? Presidents 31. no. 3. (July 2020): 69–84 . and Foreign Policy from FDR to Trump. New York, NY: , 2020.

ANNUAL REPORT 2020 13 SELECTED PUBLICATIONS

O’Sullivan, Meghan.“After Oil: Summers, Lawrence and Anna Stansbury. “U.S. Throwing Money at Green Workers Need More Power.” The Washington Post, Energy Isn’t Enough.” Bloomberg June 28, 2020. Opinion, September 17, 2020. PROJECT ON EUROPE AND THE TRANSATLANTIC RELATIONSHIP Burns, Nicholas, Pandith, Farah.“To rebuild, Stronger Daniela Schwarzer, look abroad.” The Boston Together and Torrey Taussig. A Strategy to Revitalize Globe, November 16, 2020. Transatlantic Power “Stronger Together: A Strategy to Revitalize Park, John. “Implications of the 2020 Transatlantic Power”. Presidential Election on Policy.” Paper, December, 2020.

Belfer Center Newsletter Article, Fall 2020 REPORT DECEMBER 2020

Power, Samantha. “The Can-Do Power.” Foreign Affairs, January/February 2021. Tobey, William H., Matthew Bunn, Laura S. H. Rice, Susan. “A Divided America Is a National Security Holgate, Dmitry Kovchegin, and Nickolas Roth. Threat.” The New York Times, September 22, 2020. “IAEA Nuclear Security Recommendations (INFCIRC/225): The Next Generation.” Paper, Institute for Nuclear Materials Management, July 2020. Rosenbach, Eric, Maria The Election Influence Operations Barsallo Lynch, Siobhan Playbook Gorman, Preston Golson, Voo, Julia, Irfan Hemani, Simon Jones, For State and Local Election Officials Winnona DeSombre, Dan Cassidy and Part 1: and Robby Mook. “The Understanding Election Anina Schwarzenbach. “National Cyber Mis and Disinformation Election Influence Operations Playbook .” Power Index 2020.” September 2020. Paper, September 2020. Walt, Stephen M. “The Global Order After COVID-19.”

DEFENDING DIGITAL DEMOCRACY Paper, Institut für Sicherheitspolitik, 2020. SEPTEMBER 2020

Walton, Calder. “US Intelligence, the Saradzhyan, Simon and Nabi Abdullaev. Coronavirus and the Age of Globalized “Measuring National Power: Is Putin’s Russia in Challenges.” Paper, Centre for International Decline?.” Europe-Asia Studies, (May 4, 2020). Governance Innovation, August 24, 2020.

Schneier, Bruce. “We’re Banning Facial Zabierek, Lauren. “Expect the U.S.-Iran Conflict Recognition. We’re Missing the Point.” The to Continue to Play Out in Cyberspace.” New York Times, January 20, 2020. The Boston Globe, January 14, 2020.

Sherman, Wendy.“For Women of My Generation, Zoellick, Robert. America in the World: A History Ruth Bader Ginsburg›s Fights Were Our of U.S. Diplomacy and Foreign Policy. New York, Fights.” USA Today, September 25, 2020. NY: Twelve: Hachette Book Group, 2020.

Sherwood-Randall, Elizabeth.“The Age of Strategic Instability: How Novel Technologies Disrupt the Nuclear Balance.” Foreign Affairs, July 21, 2020.

Sloat, Amanda, Nicholas Burns, Cathryn Clüver Ashbrook, David E. Sanger, and Torrey Taussig. “How Will COVID-19 Affect the Transatlantic Relationship? .” May 1, 2020.

Stavins, Robert N. and Robert C. Stowe, eds. Subnational Climate Change Policy in China. Cambridge, Massachusetts: Harvard Project on Climate Agreements, February 2020.

14 BELFER CENTER FOR SCIENCE AND INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS Convening Experts

February 5, 2020: Cyber Project Director Lauren Zabierek leads a special roundtable discussion with the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence.

ANNUAL REPORT 2020 15 PROGRAM UPDATES

16 BELFER CENTER FOR SCIENCE AND INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS PROJECT UPDATES

Project Updates

ANNUAL REPORT 2020 17 PROJECT UPDATES

Arctic Initiative

The Arctic Initiative strives to The Arctic Initiative—a joint venture of the recommendations for SDWG to help strength- increase understanding and improve Environment and Natural Resources Program en resilience within these areas. policies to respond to what is (ENRP) and the Science, Technology, and happening in the changing Arctic Public Policy Program (STPP)— spent 2020 These collaborations with SDWG were a region by initiating new research; capitalizing on our new virtual world to help precursor to the Arctic Resilience Forum by convening policymakers, shape policies and collaboration for the Arctic. (ARF), which the Arctic Initiative launched in scientists, and politicians; and by October, co-organized by SDWG and hosted developing a new generation of COVID-19 required us to test a new format by the Icelandic Chairmanship of the Arctic public and private officials with a for our course IGA-671M: Policy and Social Council. This virtual global conference covered much greater knowledge of the Innovation in the Changing Arctic taught by topics including finance, health, ecosystems, factors that are affecting the Arctic Arctic Initiative Co-Founder Halla Hrund Indigenous Knowledge, and youth empower- ecosystems and their implications Logadóttir. We designed a virtual field study ment all through the lens of resilience. The ARF for the environmental, social, and with Greenlandic collaborators in academia sought to engage participants in conversations economic systems around the globe. and government to create the Greenland Policy about how to build the resilience of Arctic Challenge. Over the course of two weeks, communities and ecosystems. ARF strength-

Co-Director: student teams tackled some of Greenland’s ened cooperation on resilience work, engaging John P. Holdren most pressing policy challenges in four catego- over 50 organizers, nearly 100 expert speakers, ries: climate change and environment, foreign and over 1000 audience members throughout Co-Director: affairs, education and cultural preservation, the ten-week series. Henry Lee and trade and economic development. The experience culminated in an interactive virtual The Arctic Initiative shared our research Co-Director: Halla Hrund Logadóttir workshop during which students presented virtually. We hosted an event at Climate Week their proposals to an expert panel. Then in the in collaboration with our partners at the Wood- Associate Director: fall, we hosted the annual Arctic Innovation well Climate Research Center on the topic of Amanda Sardonis Lab, which brought together students from six Permafrost Thaw: Local to Global Impacts, fea- universities to share their innovative solutions turing Professor John Holdren and our senior Project Coordinator: to challenges facing the region. fellows. Senior Fellow Fran Ulmer shared her Brittany Janis expertise via the Smithsonian Earth Optimism Administrative Coordinator: The Arctic Initiative has been working with Summit on the importance of science diploma- Karin Vander Schaaf the Sustainable Development Working Group cy in the Arctic. Ulmer also published a report (SDWG) of the Arctic Council to advance a on governance adaptations needed to address coordinated, regional approach to building the dramatic changes occurring along Alaska’s resilience in the Arctic. Senior Fellow Joel coast due to a changing climate. Fellows Sarah Clement held two study groups in 2020: one Dewey and Sarah Mackie presented their focused on Financing Resilience in the spring, research at conferences including the Polar Law and a second focused on Indigenous Knowl- Symposium and the American Geophysical edge Systems in the fall. These study groups Union Conference. All this work has shown gave HKS students the opportunity to connect that we can have an impact virtually, while with Arctic leaders, policy experts, Indigenous limiting our carbon footprint. knowledge holders, and people from industry. Students worked collaboratively to publish

18 BELFER CENTER FOR SCIENCE AND INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS PROJECT UPDATES

Avoiding Great Power War

The Center’s Avoiding Great Power War Project of American National Security, Strategy, and the The Avoiding Great Power War under the direction of Graham Allison pro- Press”; and participating in the Belfer Center’s Project is an interdisciplinary effort duced policy-relevant research and engagement conference on “’s Nuclear Disarmament: to investigate, analyze, and produce with a focus on avoiding catastrophic war 25 Years After the Budapest Memorandum.” policy-relevant research on great between the United States and China and the power relations. Directed by Graham United States and Russia. Applied History: Led by Directors Graham Allison, the Douglas Dillon Professor Allison and Niall Ferguson, and Assistant of Government at Harvard Kennedy China: This research addresses political, econom- Director Calder Walton, the Applied History School, the Project builds upon a basic ic, military, and technological challenges the U.S. Project aims to address the “history deficit” in premise: the historical record of great and China face as they grapple with Thucydides’s policymaking. The Project takes a “big tent” power conflict can serve as an aid to Trap—the dangerous dynamic that occurs when a approach to vitalizing Applied History in the understanding the dynamics between rising power threatens to displace a ruling power. academy and promoting its use in government, today’s great powers, namely the business, and other sectors. United States, China, and Russia. The case on “Meeting the China Challenge” prepared for Professor Allison’s course was Amid the outbreak of the pandemic in the Director: updated and extended beyond the classroom Spring, the Project collaborated with the Stanton Graham Allison as an open competition. A selection committee Foundation on a 10-week Applied History read submissions from around the world, pub- contest to promote articles that use history to Research Associate: lishing the winning entry and three honorable illuminate the political, economic, and social Jesse Caemmerer mentions on the Belfer Center website. challenges posed by coronavirus. Allison also Executive Assistant: conducted research on historical insights into Simone O’Hanlon Professor Allison advanced his research agenda how the crisis might influence U.S.-China on emerging technologies and the balance of relations, publishing his chapter, “The U.S.-Chi- Project Coordinator: power between the U.S. and China, publishing a na Relationship after Coronavirus: Clues from Thomas Jackson major study on the role of artificial intelligence History” in Covid-19 and World Order: The in U.S.- China relations titled “Is China Beating Future of Conflict, Competition, and Cooperation, Research Assistants: the U.S. to AI Supremacy?”, co-authored with edited by Hal Brands and Francis J. Gavin. Alyssa Resar Eric Schmidt, former CEO of Google. Charlotte Fitzek The Project launched a virtual series that attracted Hugo Yen The Belfer Center’s China Working Group— hundreds of historians for sessions with members Jonah Glick-Unterman chaired by Allison and Larry Summers— of the Applied History Working Group who Karina Barbesino continued meeting regularly with high-level published exemplary works of Applied History, Raleigh Browne Yashar Parsie speakers including Joseph Dunford, Eric including Fredrik Logevall’s biography of JFK, Al- Schmidt, and Kevin Rudd. exander Keyssar’s history of the Electoral College, Robert Zoellick’s history of U.S. diplomacy, and Russia: Allison continued research on managing Margaret MacMillan’s history of war. the U.S.-Russia relationship by publishing his essay, “The New Spheres of Influence: Sharing the The Project’s priorities for next year include Globe with Other Great Powers,” in Foreign Affairs; publishing a handbook of best practices for developing a case study on how the U.S. should using history as a guide and launching a series respond if Russia were to stage an intervention in of “historical reasoning workshops” to advance Latvia as part of his course on “Central Challenges the use of Applied History in government.

ANNUAL REPORT 2020 19 PROJECT UPDATES

Cyber Project

The cyber problems that confront It was a busy year at the Cyber Project in Alex Stamos. Based on the information gathered today’s leaders are substantial and which we explored myriad topics in cyber and in this working group session, we published diverse: how to protect a nation’s information security, emerging technology, our policy recommendations for digital contact most critical infrastructure from and the intersection of policy and social issues tracing in June. cyber attack; how to organize, train, in our technological field as part of our overall and equip a military force to prevail vision: “cybersecurity is national security.” We Even as we explored digital solutions to help in the event of future conflict in conducted this exploration through research, mitigate the virus’s spread, we were also cyberspace; how to deter nation- writing, and events that were held in-person, and grappling with social upheaval after the unjust state and terrorist adversaries from later virtually once the COVID-19 pandemic killings of Black men and women in our country. conducting attacks in cyberspace; compelled remote work. As the Belfer Center made Diversity, Inclusion, how to control escalation in the event and Belonging a central priority, the Cyber of a conflict in cyberspace; and how to As we began the year, our speaker series Project’s Executive Director Lauren Zabierek leverage legal and policy instruments highlighted the national security implications co-founded and co-led a far-reaching social to reduce the national attack surface of 5G telecommunications, disinformation, media campaign with Camille Stewart, Head without stifling innovation. These supply chain vulnerabilities, nation-state cyber of Security and Engineering at Google and are just a few of the motivating operations, and the recommendations of the Android, called #ShareTheMicInCyber. The questions that drive our work. Cyber Solarium Commission, many of which are campaign shined a light on systemic racism in in the 2021 National Defense Authorization Act cybersecurity and highlighted the accomplish- The aim of the Belfer Center’s as forthcoming legislation. Our guests included ments of Black men and women already making Cyber Project is to become Sean Plankey, the Principal Deputy Assistant important contributions in the field. During its the premier home for rigorous Secretary for Cyber, Energy Security, and Emer- second iteration, the campaign generated over 14 and policy-relevant study of gency Response at the Department of Energy; million Twitter impressions, with almost 7,000 these and related questions. Michelle Watson, CEO of Cyber Intelligence individuals engaged, and raised $60,000 for a Partners; and Mark Montgomery, the Executive scholarship fund to cover practitioner training Director: Director of the Cyber Solarium Commission. and certification requests. Eric Rosenbach As the coronavirus began to gain a foothold In addition to our report on digital contact Executive Director: in the United States, the Cyber Project and tracing, the Cyber Project’s research publications Lauren Zabierek Defending Digital Democracy Project together included “The Case for Increased Transatlantic Project Coordinator: with Director of Global Communications and Cooperation in AI.” Lauren Zabierek published Maya Nandakumar Strategy Josh Burek jointly hosted a Dinner on a number of op-eds spanning topics on Iran’s Data and Privacy in with Belfer cyber operations after the death of Qasem Solei- International Council Members and outside mani, combating systemic racism in cybersecu- experts. One of the priority topics we discussed rity, and calling for technology diplomacy. Our was the potential for the federal government students and fellows continue to do excellent to use citizen data in tracking the virus. This research on topics covering nation-state cyber discussion helped inspire our virtual Expert conflict, emerging technology and security, and Working Group on a Government-Tech Industry cyber threat intelligence. We look forward to the Partnership to Track COVID-19, featuring coming year with hope and purpose. notable experts from the federal government, the tech industry, and academia such as Sue Gordon, Eric Rosenbach, Juliette Kayyem, and

20 BELFER CENTER FOR SCIENCE AND INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS PROJECT UPDATES

Defending Digital Democracy

During an unprecedented election year, D3P navigating information threats targeting elections. The Defending Digital Democracy continued its efforts to support state and local It offers an introduction to election influence Project is a bi-partisan security election officials as they navigated an evolving operations: what they are, how they work, and initiative that identifies and threat landscape. why they can impact our elections. It also includes recommends strategies to protect recommendations for reporting, responding to, democratic processes and systems D3P National Training Tour and countering mis and disinformation incidents from cyber and information attacks. during elections. The Playbook’s frameworks and

Building on the momentum of its prior trainings, recommendations were created in response to Director: D3P set out to design a national tour to train known challenges ahead of this election cycle and Eric Rosenbach state and local election officials in fortifying their was written as a starting point meant to be adapted 2020 elections. The tour was conducted digitally for each jurisdiction’s needs. Executive Director: and was designed to give officials the best of D3P Maria Barsallo Lynch live training sessions in a new format. The tour The D3P team took part in numerous presenta- Project Coordinator: offered customized trainings for jurisdictions tions to share the Playbook’s recommendations, Maya Nandakumar and hosted some special national sessions. including national events with the Cybersecu- rity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) The D3P National Training Tour team was and the National Governors Association. We composed of 16 Harvard students, recent also hosted our own national briefing for alumni, and alumni of the project. Throughout officials and collaborators in the election field the tour, the team was able to engage with and and shared practical advice on podcasts. train more than 750 officials across 17 states on cybersecurity, information operations, and D3P National Election Data Set incident communications response. We briefed officials on the Project’s playbooks and recom- Recognizing that the 2020 general election and mendations, and conducted virtual table-top its aftermath would be unlike any previous elec- exercises (TTXs) for more than 350 officials. tion that the American public has experienced, As the tour concluded in early fall, the team D3P students and alumni developed a dataset designed a Harvard edX Canvas page, making detailing the most relevant state-specific factors tour sessions available online with special video that were likely to affect the overall tempo of the instruction, slides, and additional content that election, tabulation, and reporting of results. officials can access at any time. This dataset was intended to serve as a resource D3P Election Influence Operations Playbook to media, public leaders, and voters seeking com- prehensive, state-by-state information about the Ahead of the election, D3P released “The Election election in order to counter the disinformation Influence Operations Playbook” focused on a sub- that was exacerbated by the particular challenges set of influence operations (IO): the types of dis- of holding an election during a public health information attacks and misinformation incidents emergency. The D3P team provided continuous that most commonly interfere with the election updates on state-by-state data ahead of, during, process, where election officials are best positioned and after the election. The team briefed members to counter them. The Playbook includes three of the media, civil society, and government sections with resources and recommendations on collaborators on the data set.

ANNUAL REPORT 2020 21 PROJECT UPDATES

Defense Project

The purpose of the Defense Project Over the past calendar year, the Defense Project traumatic brain injury on special operators is is to educate and inspire the next made use of the virtual environment to expand changing how those elite forces train. Six other generation of national leaders in the number of senior public and thought papers have already been published. This year’s the national security policy field. leaders who could provide their insights to Fellows are working on 17 different research The project seeks to illuminate the audiences here at HKS and beyond. The ability projects ranging from civil-military relations critical relationship between civilian to speak virtually rather than travel to Cam- and public-private partnerships in intelligence leaders and the uniformed military bridge allowed the Defense Project to attract to enhancing interagency effectiveness in in the U.S. defense and intelligence 15 speakers in the spring term and 19 speakers combating insider threats. establishment in the pursuit of in the fall. The Project also created open security policy success through a audience forums to explore topics ranging from In April and May, the 2020 National Security combination of discussions with top civil-military relations and space to women in Fellows presented the findings of their research officials and research. The research intelligence and defense. to members of the Business Executives in being done by the National Security National Security (BENS) and now the 2021 Fellows looks to make concrete The National Security Fellows Program, part of Fellows are working closely with BENS as they impacts on important defense the Defense Project, remains a vibrant compo- develop their research. In September 2020, the and intelligence policy issues. nent of the Belfer Center and overall discussion Defense Project planned and ran a community on security here at . gathering for all Harvard veteran groups, This 10-month fellowship for U.S. and “five- highlighted by President Director: eye” military and intelligence officers is certified Larry Bacow’s remarks to welcome veterans William E. Rapp by the Department of Defense as a senior of all ages and help them make connections service college fellowship to develop strategic within the Harvard community. Project Coordinator: mindedness, executive leadership skills, and Natalia Angel broader intellectual perspectives. In 2020-21, The goals of the Defense Project in 2020 and the program is hosting 18 Fellows from all beyond are to increase the value of the NSF military services and the Defense Intelligence Program to decision makers, increase the di- community. Program alumni now include the versity of the Fellows representing the military current Army Chief of Staff, the Commandant and intelligence establishments, provide an of the U.S. Coast Guard, and the Chief of the exceptional learning atmosphere, and leverage Army National Guard. the Fellows and guests to better connect the military to the broad public it serves. The most recent class of National Security Fellows produced a number of important research papers that are making an impact on policy. For example, a paper highlighting blast

22 BELFER CENTER FOR SCIENCE AND INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS PROJECT UPDATES

Economic Diplomacy Initiative

From the economic fallout from COVID-19 to critical debt relief proposals. EDI also hosted The Economic Diplomacy Initiative increasingly complex digital governance issues Martin Mühleisen, Director of Strategy, Policy, aims to provide analysis and to multilateral institutions in need of reform, and Review at the International Monetary recommendations to policymakers the incoming Biden Administration faces a full Fund, to discuss the Fund’s response to the on challenges at the intersection of international economics policy agenda. Rising crisis. The EDI research team introduced a economic policy and national security. U.S.-China tensions will exacerbate these policy weekly tracker of key macroeconomic policies From traditional economic measures, challenges as the world’s two largest economies introduced by major central banks and finan- like trade policy, development compete for economic power and global cial authorities around the globe. aid, and economic sanctions, to influence. In 2020, the Economic Diplomacy emerging challenges, like data privacy Initiative directed its research efforts toward Continuing our groundbreaking research on and competitiveness in artificial identifying policy priorities for the incoming digital currencies, EDI partnered with the intelligence, the project aims to Administration, with a focus on examining to launch the Central Bank advance our understanding of how the U.S.-China economic relationship and the Digital Currency tracker. The tracker presents national leaders should use economic COVID-19 economic recovery. information on speeches, policy decisions, and power to pursue both inclusive growth published research from over 50 central banks and national security interests. To foster mutual understanding between U.S. around the world on efforts to launch a national and Chinese policy thinkers, EDI welcomed digital currency. Director: Distinguished Professor and Dean of Tsinghua Nicholas Burns University’s Institute of , EDI continues to be a primarily student-centric Yan Xuetong (阎学通), for a conversation on and student-driven initiative. This year, Execu- Director: the digital dimension of strategic competition tive Director Aditi Kumar mentored a working Aditi Kumar between the two countries. The discussion group of Kennedy School students pursuing Director: series continued with the Chief Information research in a variety of topics, including Lawrence H. Summers Security Officer of TikTok, Roland Cloutier, on developing a national digital capabilities index, data privacy and security issues in the context decoding the Chinese digital currency project, of the Trump Administration’s Executive examining export controls levied by the U.S. Order announcing prohibitions on TikTok and Commerce Department. WeChat. EDI also hosted Henry Farrell and Abe Newman to discuss their seminal paper Next year, the project will launch a “Geopolitics on “weaponized interdependence” and the of Technology” program, a seminar series prospect of U.S.-China supply chain decou- examining geostrategic competition in key pling. Finally, Wendy Cutler, Kelly Ann Shaw, technology domains, including social media, and Robert Lawrence joined us to discuss trade finance, and communications. The series priorities for the next Administration, includ- will aim to illustrate how rapid technological ing what’s next for the U.S.-China trade war. innovation and leadership in setting global standards and regulations for a digitized econo- In addition to the U.S.-China economic my will be integral to U.S. national security and relationship, EDI explored the economic influence in the Indo-Pacific region and across ramifications of COVID-19. We were joined the globe. over the summer by World Bank Chief Eco- nomic Carmen Reinhart to discuss impacts on developing countries, including the outlook for

ANNUAL REPORT 2020 23 PROJECT UPDATES Environment and Natural Resources

The Environment and Natural In 2020, ENRP furthered its climate change ENRP presented the 2020 Roy Family Award Resources Program is at the center policy research, expanded its work on technology for Environmental Partnerships to Clean Water of Harvard Kennedy School’s research innovation for a rapid transition to a low-carbon for Carolina Kids, a cross-sector partnership and outreach on public policy that energy system, and supported HKS and Harvard in North Carolina that protects children affects global environmental quality College students with funding for relevant from exposure to lead from drinking water at and natural resources management. research projects, internships, and fellowships. childcare centers and schools. Following the Many of ENRP’s ongoing efforts on energy virtual award ceremony, a panel of scientists,

Director: and climate change policy, including the Arctic advocates, and public health professionals William C. Clark Initiative, operate in partnership with the Science, discussed the challenges of providing clean Technology, and Public Policy Program (STPP). drinking water nationwide and how to ensure Director: that science and justice are at the center of work Henry Lee ENRP published policy briefs and reports to protect children’s health. In 2021, ENRP aimed at both practitioners and scholars, will publish an analysis of the partnerships Associate Director: Amanda Sardonis including: evaluated by the Roy Award program since • a primer on carbon offset markets—who 2003 in an edited volume titled Partnerships for Staff Assistant: buys them, who produces them, and Sustainability: Pathways to Effectiveness. Isabel Feinstein who certifies them—that describes the challenges facing the market and makes Throughout 2020, ENRP hosted the long-run- recommendations for the future; ning Energy Policy Seminar Series with the • a research review on the persistent challenge Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and of poor electricity reliability in India and Government and the Harvard University Center how it interacts with key regulatory policies, for the Environment. Speakers discussed options including an analysis on Delhi’s experience for designing and implementing effective clean with outage compensation since 2017; energy and climate policy in the context of a • a paper on renewable hydrogen’s potential post-COVID-19 economic recovery; the tran- role in a decarbonized global energy system, sition to a low-carbon energy system; and the the geopolitical and market implications incoming Biden administration. With the Center of adopting green hydrogen at scale, and for Public Leadership, ENRP co-sponsored follow-on reports on China and Europe. The First 100 Days: Climate and Environmental Policy in the Biden Administration: an event Senior Fellow Nicola De Blasio led a Spring series featuring leaders in environmental justice, 2020 study group entitled Energy Innovation climate policy, and environmental law. and the Transition to a Low-Carbon Economy: Advising Fortune 500 Companies, joined by This fall, ENRP developed and launched students from several Harvard graduate schools Climate@HKS: a new online resource for and Harvard College. The group engaged with navigating climate-related activity across corporate officials at the CEO and executive HKS’s research centers, degree programs, and VP levels, giving students an opportunity to departments. In 2021, ENRP will continue to understand private sector challenges surround- manage digital content and communication ing the transition to a low-carbon economy, for Climate@HKS, creating opportunities for and produced a collaborative report with the community engagement and amplifying a range multinational energy company ENGIE. of voices on climate issues.

24 BELFER CENTER FOR SCIENCE AND INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS PROJECT UPDATES Europe and the Transatlantic Relationship

Under the joint leadership of Faculty Chair resolving outstanding trade disputes between The Project on Europe and the Nicholas Burns and Director of the German the United States and Europe. Foreign Minister Transatlantic Relationship aims to Council on Foreign Affairs (DGAP) Daniela of Spain Arancha Gonzalez Laya, former U.S. strengthen the University’s capacities Schwarzer, the Project convened a strategy Secretary of State , and for teaching, research, and policy group of 13 experts and former government Deputy Secretary General of NATO Mircea on the relationship between the officials from the United States and Europe to Geoană addressed the redefinition of inclusive United States and Europe. The discuss the crisis in the transatlantic relation- security in the COVID-19 era in a public event, program is designed to deepen a ship and propose a strategy for its revitalization. moderated by Nicholas Burns and IE Uni- relationship which has—for over 70 The group developed a comprehensive report versity Dean Susana Malcorra. An in-person years—served as an anchor of global and eight action plans to tackle the most conference is planned for the summer of 2021. order, driven the expansion of the pressing challenges, including pandemic Senior Spanish diplomat José Luis Rodriguez de world economy, provided peace management; economics and trade; security Colmenares was named Rafael del Pino-Span- and stability, and reunited peoples and defense; China; Russia; climate change and ish Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MAEC) fellow once divided by war. In doing so, we energy policy; democracy; technology; and with the Project in September, pursuing hope to prepare a new generation of achieving greater stability in the Middle East research on populism and hosting study groups leaders on both sides of the Atlantic. and North Africa. on European foreign policy.

Director: Restoring the resilience and vibrancy of Ameri- In 16 events, the Project expanded its high- Nicholas Burns can and European democracy as a counterpoint level event series with policymakers, hosting to the rise of authoritarianism around the globe the Minister of the Armed Forces of France, Executive Director: must be the first priority, the authors argue. Florence Parly, in January for a joint conversation Cathryn Clüver Ashbrook The report was launched with virtual events with Center Director Ash Carter and Nicholas Research Director: hosted by Harvard Kennedy School and the Burns, along with students, fellows and experts. Torrey Taussig DGAP on December 9 and 10, 2020, with the In partnership with MIT and Harvard’s Asia participation of the Ambassadors of France and Center, the Project launched a new event series Assistant Director: the European Union to the United States, and examining the triangular relationship between Alison Hillegeist leading German politicians, to coincide with a Europe, the United States, and China over four Project Coordinator: major EU Summit and as Biden administration separate seminars. Through active, annual Erika Manouselis officials developed their transition plans. In support of student conferences, including the early 2021, major European think tanks in Italy, European Conference and the German-American France, Estonia, and the United Kingdom will Conference, the Project facilitates next-generation host the chairs and action plan authors for in- discourse on transatlantic relations. depth discussions on progress on these issues. The Project remains committed to increasing the Together with its partners, the Rafael del Pino ability of Harvard Kennedy School to provide Foundation and IE University’s School of high-level instruction on Europe through the an- Global and Public Affairs, the Project hosted nual Pierre Keller Visiting Professorship. Nathalie its annual two-day transatlantic conference Tocci, Director of the Instituto Affari Internazion- virtually. In a closed expert workshop, former ali (IAI), who served previously as Special Advisor U.S. Trade Representative and to High Representative/Vice President of the Sabine Weyand, Director-General for Trade in European Commission Federica Mogherini, will the EU Commission, discussed the prospects of take up her position in the autumn of 2021.

ANNUAL REPORT 2020 25 PROJECT UPDATES

Future of Diplomacy

The Future of Diplomacy Project’s In its tenth year, the Future of Diplomacy Project Our community was deeply saddened to lose Dr. mission is to promote the study and (FDP) published a major report, “A U.S. Diplo- Erekat to the coronavirus in November 2020. research of diplomacy, negotiation, matic Service for the 21st Century,” written by and statecraft in international FDP Faculty Chair Nicholas Burns, former Fisher In 37 events, the Project addressed the future politics today, and to enhance Family Fellow Ambassador Marc Grossman, of American foreign policy in student-focused public understanding of diplomacy’s and Ambassador Marcie Ries. Designed as a seminars with incoming U.S. National Security indispensible role in an increasingly nonpartisan blueprint for action by the next Advisor and FDP Senior Fellow Jake Sullivan, complex and globalized world. administration, Congress, and members of the former National Security Advisor Susan Rice, and Foreign Service, it builds on 40 workshops and U.S. Senator Tim Kaine. Topics discussed included

Director: meetings with more than 200 experts: serving U.S.-Brazil relations, the future of Arctic Security, Nicholas Burns State Department officials, retired Foreign Service Indian domestic and foreign policy, U.S.-Austra- members, foreign diplomats, business leaders, lian relations, the future of the U.S.-UK relation- Executive Director: senior U.S. military and intelligence officers, and ship, and global responses to the pandemic. Cathryn Clüver Ashbrook senior members of the Trump administration and the Biden presidential transition team. The Through career events and an active mentoring Assistant Director: Alison Hillegeist authors make 10 recommendations that include program, the Project supported the professional a new definition of the mandate and mission of development of students in the Diplomacy Profes- Project Coordinator: the Foreign Service, a new Foreign Service Act, sional Interest Caucus at HKS. A student show- Erika Manouselis internal cultural reform and commitment to case of graduate Policy Analysis Exercises in the diversity, professionalization of the service, and an spring offered students the opportunity to present overhauled personnel system. their work to policymakers and the HKS alumni community. The Project also increased diversity in As part of the ongoing American Secretaries its fellowship, speaker, and event series. of State Project with and Harvard Business School, FDP hosted former U.S. Finally, the -Palestine Leadership Initiative Secretary of State John Kerry for a wide-ranging held study groups with Senior Fellow Dr. Rob conversation on contemporary challenges to U.S. Danin and a series of discussions between Israeli, foreign policy, with a focus on the rise of China, Palestinian, and American foreign policy leaders climate change, and the future of U.S. policy to reflect on diplomatic advances in the region. toward Iran. In collaboration with the Center’s Middle East Initiative, the Project supported the fellowship of The Future of Diplomacy Project welcomed four Dr. Yael Berda, who spearheaded a contemporary international leaders as Fisher Family Fellows: examination of the Oslo Accords. In 2021, FDP former German Ambassador to the UK, the U.S. will launch a series of leadership workshops for and the UN, Peter Wittig; former Minister of students and alumni, leading up to later experien- Foreign Affairs of Australia, Julie Bishop; former tial learning in-region. High Representative and Vice President of the European Commission, Federica Mogherini; and former Chief Palestinian negotiator, Saeb Erekat. In events with students, fellows and faculty, they discussed the future of global order and interna- tional relations and the Israeli-Palestinian divide.

26 BELFER CENTER FOR SCIENCE AND INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS PROJECT UPDATES

Geopolitics of Energy

2020 was a tumultuous year for the world of equally concerned about the geopolitics of The Geopolitics of Energy Project energy. The Geopolitics of Energy Project decarbonization. Certainly, the geopolitics of a explores the intersection of energy, (GEP) at the Belfer Center continued its transformed world in which oil is no longer a security, and international politics. research into this ever-changing energy major source of political power (or an object of The project, launched in 2011, aims landscape, endeavoring to inform policymakers pursuit) is relevant. But even more interesting to to improve our understanding of and students about major challenges and the Project is the actual energy transition itself. how energy demand and supply opportunities at the intersection of energy, the shape international politics—and environment, and geopolitics. We are launching a workshop series (and vice versa. It also endeavors to derivative publications) dedicated to inform policymakers and students Two perspectives dominated energy illuminating the interaction of energy, climate, about major challenges to global conversations over the past year, and members and geopolitics over the coming decade, energy security and, where possible, of the Geopolitics of Energy Project were acknowledging that three dynamics will co-exist, to propose new ways of thinking regular participants in debates and efforts to creating a complex and uneven transition. about and addressing these understand the new dynamics. The first was issues. The project focuses both the dramatic drop in global demand for energy First, there will be the on-going geopolitics of oil on conventional and alternative generally, and the demand for oil in particular, and gas, as long as these energies play some role energies, as both will influence and be due to the near paralysis of the global economy in the global energy mix. influenced by geopolitical realities. as a result of COVID-19. The second issue was the energy transition itself—the shift to a more Second, there will be the emerging geopolitics of Director: environmentally sustainable energy mix—and climate change, including but not limited to the Meghan O’Sullivan how the COVID pandemic could hasten (or creation of millions of “climate refugees” and the slow) this transition. geopolitical shifts they will prompt. Project Coordinator: Cassandra Favart Professor O’Sullivan and GEP Fellow Juergen Finally, there are the geopolitics of the transition Braunstein wrote regular articles and opinion itself: steps that countries, companies, or other pieces exploring various elements of these actors take to advance or thwart efforts to shifts—including on how the plunge in oil address climate change. Better understanding demand creates new geopolitical challenges each of these strands, and how they interact around the world, the impact of COVID on the with one another, has been a focus of the past pace of the energy transition, and assessments year—and is one that will be further honed in of the efforts of some oil-producing countries the year ahead. to embrace renewable energy as a competitive advantage. They have both engaged major stakeholders in these conversations, from OPEC to the G20 to U.S. and foreign officials, in private consultations, public forums, and written exchanges.

Whereas, in the past, the Project has focused on how changes in fossil fuel production have reordered global politics, the project is now

ANNUAL REPORT 2020 27 PROJECT UPDATES Harvard Project on Climate Agreements

The goal of the Harvard Project on The Harvard Project on Climate Agreements Harvard Project. These virtual forums were Climate Agreements, established conducted a virtual research workshop in open to the public and attracted hundreds in 2007, is to identify and advance October 2020 titled “China’s National Car- of live viewers from around the world. The scientifically sound, economically bon-Pricing System: Challenges and Oppor- inaugural speaker was Belfer Center Faculty Af- sensible, and politically pragmatic tunities.” Tsinghua University’s Institute of filiate and Board Member Meghan O’Sullivan, public policy options for addressing Energy, Environment, and Economy co-hosted Director of the Center’s Geopolitics of Energy global climate change. Drawing upon the workshop. Twenty-seven experts from Project. O’Sullivan discussed “The Geopolitics leading thinkers from around the China, the United States, Europe, Australia, of the Global Upheaval in Oil Markets.” Other world, the Harvard Project conducts the World Bank, and Asian Development Bank Speakers were Jacob Werksman, a senior advi- research on policy architecture, key participated, in addition to Robert Stavins and sor on climate-change policy in the European design elements, and institutional Robert Stowe, Director and Co-Director of the Commission; Rachel Kyte, Dean of the Fletcher dimensions of international and Harvard Project. Chinese participants included School, Tufts University and former Special domestic climate-change policy. researchers from Wuhan University in Hubei Envoy on Climate Change for the World Bank; Province, Fudan University in Shanghai, Sun Joseph E. Stiglitz, University Professor, Colum-

Director: Yat-sen University in Guangzhou (Guangdong bia University; Joseph Aldy; and Jason Bordoff, Robert N. Stavins Province), as well as Beijing-based researchers Director of the Center on Global Energy Policy at Tsinghua University and other institutes and at Columbia University. Co-Director: organizations. The Harvard Project will prepare Robert C. Stowe a brief report on the workshop, to be released in Robert Stavins also hosts a podcast titled “En- January 2021. vironmental Insights.” Fourteen episodes were Project Manager: Jason Chapman released in 2020. An important episode released The Harvard Project released three major publi- in September 2020 featured a discussion with Program Coordinator: cations in 2020. The first was a volume of briefs Vicky Bailey, a former member of the Federal Casey A. Billings titled “Subnational Climate Change Policy in Energy Regulatory Commission, on “Energy, China,” based on a research workshop on the Climate Policy, and Social Justice.” Other guests same topic held in Beijing in summer 2019. ranged from Belfer Center Faculty Affiliate Belfer Center Faculty Affiliate Joseph Aldy and David Keith in January to Spencer Dale, Group Faculty Affiliate and Board Member Robert Chief Economist with BP, in December. Stavins released a Discussion Paper titled “Roll- ing the Dice in the Corridors of Power: William The Harvard Project on Climate Agreements Nordhaus’s Impacts on Climate Change Policy.” will conduct at least two research workshops Aldy also co-authored a Discussion Paper with in 2021. One will examine the carbon dioxide Richard Zeckhauser titled “Three Prongs for emissions trading system in Guangdong Prudent Climate Policy.” Province, in China. The other will explore subnational climate-change policy in India. Robert Stavins hosted a webinar series titled Robert Stavins and Harvard Project staff will “Conversations on Climate Change and Energy participate in the Twenty-Sixth Conference of Policy: A Virtual Forum from the Harvard the Parties of the United Nations Framework Project on Climate Agreements.” Six interviews Convention on Climate Change in November were released with global experts on various in Glasgow, United Kingdom. topics in climate-change and energy policy; these may be found on the home page of the

28 BELFER CENTER FOR SCIENCE AND INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS PROJECT UPDATES Homeland Security / Security and Global Health

A major output of 2020 was publication of the Homeland Security after the Trump Adminis- The Homeland Security Project book Beyond 9/11: Homeland Security for the tration. Kayyem, Bersin, and Lawson discussed focuses on the unique challenges 21st Century, a collection of essays and recom- their new book. and choices around protecting the mendations by experts on various homeland American homeland. The Security security topics. Edited by Juliette Kayyem, Security and Global Health and Global Health Project advances Alan Bersin (former DHS Assistant Secretary research and public policy on for International Affairs), and Chappell Lawson To fill an information gap around the many critical health security threats. (former senior advisor to the Commissioner of questions the COVID quarantine raised for all U.S. Customs and Border Protection), the book of us, Juliette Kayyem and Margaret Bourdeaux encapsulated many of the security challenges served as advisors to a number of organizations, Director: and recommendations tackled by both Projects including the National Governors Association Juliette Kayyem during the year. and other state and local delegations, Partners in Health, Building Trade Unions, Community Research Director: Margaret Bourdeaux During 2020, the Homeland Security Project Health Centers, and the Broad Institute.

welcomed two new fellows—security experts Project Coordinator: who contributed their expertise to research Bourdeaux co-chaired the Digital Pandemic Tara Tyrrell and discussions regarding a range of homeland Response Working Group at the Berkman security issues. Nate Bruggeman is a former Klein Center and the Task Force on R&D of Counselor to the Special Representative for Medical Countermeasures through the Program Border Affairs at the Department of Homeland in Global Public Policy at HMS, and Kayyem Security and Counselor to Commissioner of served on multiple task forces, including Council U.S. Customs and Border Protection. Steve for Foreign Relations (CFR) Task Force on Johnson is a technologist and entrepreneur Preparing for the Next Pandemic. focused on the borderless threat posed by Artificial Intelligence and open Internet. Project experts also worked with Harvard graduate schools on increasing public aware- To continue and expand student and public ness around a number of COVID-related awareness and engagement, the Projects issues, such as Weaponizing Health Intelligence; continued the Homeland Security Policy Paper Interstate Action to Solve the U.S. COVID Test- Series and Speaker Series. Publications included ing Crisis; and Building a U.S. Health Intelligence a paper by Bruggeman that addressed systemic Capability. They also published numerous weaknesses with technology innovation to relevant op-eds in major U.S. publications, and support homeland security. Additional papers produced a weekly video series, Questions from analyzed the implications of the COVID-19 Quarantine. pandemic for U.S. emergency management and border management, and the priority institu- tional challenges facing the new U.S. Customs and Border Protection leadership. Johnson and Bruggeman also engaged with students in discussions on the need for Internet regulation to prevent threats of misuse, and the needed reforms and priorities at the Department of

ANNUAL REPORT 2020 29 PROJECT UPDATES

Intelligence Project

The Intelligence Project advances The Intelligence Project hosts the Recanati-Kaplan and cultural changes to improve DIB in the IC. Intelligence study and research, (RK) Foundation Fellowship, which brings senior Speakers examined the historical record and the in particular on the critical nexus intelligence practitioners from around the world experiences of underrepresented groups in the IC between intelligence and policy, and for a year of research and study at the Center. The and compared strategies for recruiting, retaining, aims to prepare future practitioners 2019-2020 cohort was composed of 16 fellows and developing a diverse workforce. The purpose and policymakers alike. from eight countries and 12 intelligence agencies, of the conference was to stimulate dialogue, spark with 14 fellows representing six countries and creative new solutions, and inspire a diverse new

Director: 10 agencies participating in 2020-2021. The generation to consider service in the intelligence Paul Kolbe Intelligence Project also sponsors the Elbe Group, community. a Track 1.5 dialogue composed of senior Russian Research Director: and US former military and intelligence officers. The Elbe Group met virtually in October 2020 Calder Walton with an agenda focused on strategic stability and The project hosted more than 50 intelligence- the challenges posed by hybrid warfare. Partici- Project Coordinator: Caitlin Chase focused events in 2020, featuring perspectives pants included three- and four-star veterans from from a wide array of notable current and former the FSB, GRU, CIA, DIA, Ministry of Defense, and civilian, military, and private sector intelligence Department of Defense. The purpose of the “Elbe leaders. Topics included: Group” is to maintain an open and continuous channel of communication on sensitive issues of • Restructuring the Data Ecosystem US-Russian relations and the group’s findings and • Great Power Competition, Arms Sales, and recommendations are made available to officials in U.S. Foreign Policy the US and Russian governments and are listed at • Innovation for the Future of Intelligence Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center website. • The Abraham Accords • Domestic Intelligence in Times of Civil During the October sessions, both the U.S. and Unrest Russian sides of the Elbe Group recognized the • Speaking Truth to Power & The Intelli- critical state of U.S.-Russia relations featuring gence-Policy Nexus almost complete lack of trust; along with hybrid, • Drone Technology and the COVID-19 cyber, and information conflicts that pose a Crisis risk of unintended escalation into war. In this • Surveying the Disinformation and Disrup- situation, the Elbe Group agreed that it is urgent tion Threats to the 2020 U.S. Election that the US and Russia open direct, continuous • Women in Operations — A Female communications between military, diplomatic, Perspective on CIA’s Clandestine Service and intelligence elements to avoid miscalculations and unintentional war. Of particular note, the Intelligence Project, in coordination with Belfer’s Cyber Project, hosted a virtual conference exploring Diversity, Inclusion, and Belonging (DIB) in the Intelligence Community (IC) with over 600 participants from the IC, academia, and private sector. During the conference, panelists and attendees shared their experiences and ideas for concrete policy

30 BELFER CENTER FOR SCIENCE AND INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS PROJECT UPDATES

International Security Journal

In 2020, International Security published 19 articles Reverse Engineering, and Cyber Espionage,” which International Security is in four issues (Winter 2019/20–Fall 2020). The appeared in the Winter 2018/19 issue. America’s leading peer-reviewed articles addressed a wide range of topics, including journal of security affairs. It alliance politics in East Asia, nuclear and radiologi- International Security also makes a large effort to provides sophisticated analyses cal weapons, Russian foreign policy, Chinese grand promote the analysis and policy recommendations of contemporary, theoretical, strategy, the history of détente in the Middle East, that appear in the journal. In addition to publi- and historical security issues. U.S. civil-military relations, technology and politics, cizing each issue with press releases and targeted International Security is edited at proxy warfare, deterring wartime atrocities, and mailings, International Security articles were Harvard University’s Belfer Center clandestine military capabilities. featured or referenced in major news and policy for Science and International Affairs outlets, including The Economist, The Washington and is published by The MIT Press. International Security received top rankings for Post, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, The Diplomat, impact in 2019 based on the high number of times Lawfare, and War on the Rocks, among others. Editor-in-Chief: the journal’s articles were referenced in other pub- Steven Miller lications. According to Clarivate’s Journal Citation In late-2019, International Security launched a new Reports, International Security’s Impact Factor rose podcast, “IS: Off the Page,” to encourage public Executive Editor: from 4.500 in 2018 to 5.432 in 2019. This Impact engagement with the journal, its authors, and its Morgan Kaplan Factor is the journal’s highest since Clarivate began ideas. Hosted by Executive Editor Morgan Kaplan, Editor: publishing scores online, and this year the journal each episode features the author of a recent article Owen Coté, Jr. has moved up in the rankings from #2 to #1 out of and guests from the broader policy community. In 95 journals in International Relations. The journal 2020, the journal released 10 new podcast episodes, Managing Editor: has ranked first or second in Impact Factor for 18 including discussions on NATO enlargement, the Diane McCree of the last 23 years, and International Security has post-conflict politics of migration and refugee Executive Editor, Belfer Center ranked in the top five for Impact Factor every year return, international law and wartime atrocities, Studies in International Security: since 1996. The journal also received a Scopus Cite- Chinese views on nuclear escalation, great power Karen Motley Score of 9.6, which secures the journal’s ranking as politics in the Middle East, and democracy promo- #1 out of 529 journals in the category of Political tion in U.S. foreign policy, among other topics. Publications Coordinator: Science and International Relations. Furthermore, Carly Demetre the journal was ranked #1 in Military Studies by International Security strives to continue to publish Google Scholar Metrics in 2019. and promote the best possible articles in the field of global security studies. In the past year, the International Security Studies Section of the International Studies Association presented its annual Best Security Article Award to Henry Farrell and Abraham L. Newman, “Weap- onized Interdependence: How Global Economic Networks Shape State Coercion,” which appeared in the Summer 2019 issue. The America in the World Consortium presented its Best Research Article on U.S. Foreign Policy and Grand Strategy Award to Andrea Gilli and Mauro Gilli, “Why China Has Not Caught Up Yet: Military-Techno- logical Superiority and the Limits of Imitation,

ANNUAL REPORT 2020 31 PROJECT UPDATES

International Security Program

The International Security Program The International Security Program was pleased the subjects of the three fall 2020 events. The (ISP) addresses the most pressing to publish and showcase the work of some of series will continue into spring 2021. threats to U.S. national interests and the world’s leading security strategists in 2020, international security. The program particularly rising female scholars. ISP’s most prominent publications this past year supports young scholars with its include Professor Dara Kay Cohen’s co-authored fellowship program and sponsors ISP hosted a special event in January with Dr. book, Lynching and Local Justice: Legitimacy and edits the quarterly journal Joana Cook of King College London’s Depart- and Accountability in Weak States (September International Security, a leading ment of War Studies about her book, A Woman’s 2020), which has been described as an important peer-reviewed journal of security Place: US Counterterrorism Since 9/11. contribution to the understanding of extralegal affairs that provides sophisticated violence, and Stephen Walt’s working paper, analyses of contemporary security The International Security Program (ISP)’s “The Global Order After COVID-19,” published issues and discusses their conceptual Program on Grand Strategy, Security, and by the Institut für Sicherheitspolitik, which and historical foundations. Statecraft (GSSS), joint with MIT’s Security posits that “the post-COVID-19 world will Studies Program (SSP), hosted a public lecture be less open, less free, less prosperous, and

Director: in May featuring Professor Caitlin Talmadge more competitive than the world many people Stephen M. Walt of Georgetown University on “The Emerging expected to emerge only a few years ago.” Nuclear Era: Implications for Strategy and Director: Policy.” GSSS Fellow David Allen’s ISP seminar, GSSS Fellow William James published, “Gran- Steven E. Miller “Women and the Making of the U.S. Foreign diose Strategy? Refining the Study and Practice Policy Community,” was held in December. of Grand Strategy,” in The RUSI Journal. This Program Assistant: Susan M. Lynch article stems from his prize-winning entry for Two outstanding GSSS fellows were selected for RUSI’s Trench Gascoigne essay competition. In 2020–2022. Renanah Miles Joyce, who received late June, he also submitted written testimony to her Ph.D. from Columbia University in 2020, and the UK Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee’s Robert Ralston, who received his Ph.D. from the inquiry into the UK government’s “Integrated University of Minnesota in summer 2020, began Review of Security, Defence, Development and their fellowships in summer 2020. In 2021–2022, Foreign Policy.” Ralston will be in residence at MIT and Miles Joyce will be in residence at the Center. GSSS Fellow Audrye Wong received the 2020 ISA International Security Studies Section Patri- ISP launched The Future World Order event cia Weitsman Award for Outstanding Graduate series in fall 2020. The liberal order that followed Paper in March 2020 for “Reaping What You the Cold War is now contested, and rising ten- Sow: Public Accountability and the Effectiveness sions among major powers could lead to a serious of China’s Economic Statecraft.” breakdown of existing norms and rules. HKS Professor Dani Rodrik and Professor Stephen For 2021, ISP will continue to select, support, Walt have been working together to identify a set and mentor promising scholars in the field of of governing principles that could help guide the security studies. ISP will also co-host a seminar construction of a more benign world order. Arms in the GSSS Speakers’ Series in spring 2021. control, digital trade, and U.S.-Sino relations were

32 BELFER CENTER FOR SCIENCE AND INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS PROJECT UPDATES

Korea Project

The Korea Project is committed to advancing Director John Park and Senior Fellow William The goal of the Korea Project is to research, policy engagement, and mentorship Tobey met with senior officials in Seoul and foster a deeper understanding of of next generation specialists at Harvard. We Tokyo in early January. The briefings featured rapidly evolving security challenges deepen the connection between practitioner key findings from a series of Track 1.5 dialogues on the Korean Peninsula and to and research communities and reveal how with current and former U.S., South Korean, develop creative approaches to Korea functions as an oracle of global trends. In Chinese, and Japanese lead negotiators who address them. The Korea Project 2020, the Korea Project welcomed our newest collectively dealt with North Korea from 1994 also partners with interdisciplinary advisors: Gen. (Ret.) Vincent Brooks, former to 2019. Park also briefed senior officials at the researchers to capture insights Commander of U.S. Forces Korea, Andrew Office of the Director of National Intelligence’s from the Peninsula’s role as an Kim, former head of the CIA’s Korea Mission National Intelligence Council; senior members oracle of how global trends will Center, and Priscilla Moriuchi, former senior of the Commander, U.S. Naval Forces Korea’s transpire – from pandemics to nuclear expert on North Korea cyber threats at the staff; and U.S. Army strategists at West Point’s proliferation to economic statecraft. . Modern War Institute.

Director: The Korea Project conducted major policy The Korea Project launched a new initiative John Park engagement activities ranging from Track 1.5 for students called “Tradecraft: Learning from dialogues to an executive speaker series with Research Pioneers.” The first event, “Hard Data leaders from the national security and research for Hard Targets,” featured the Center for Ad- communities. Through virtual platforms, we vanced Defense Studies’ lead researchers, who expanded existing partnerships and leveraged presented their innovative use of data analytics the functional expertise of other Harvard to map North Korean procurement networks. groups. Our partnership events included: “The On Diversity, Inclusion, and Belonging efforts, Korean War at 70: Revisiting its Impact on the the Korea Project used social media to reach Growth of the U.S. National Security Enter- students from underrepresented colleges. We prise” (Applied History Project); “The Korean will be incorporating the Tradecraft series War at 70: Revisiting the Role of Intelligence” recordings into a free online course available (Intelligence Project); “Looking in the Right next spring for these students and will host Places: Using Non-Traditional Datasets to group office hours. Study North Korea” (Cyber Project); “Inflow of Foreign Content into North Korea and the Looking ahead, the Korea Project will build Regime’s Countermeasures” (Carr Center for on successful initiatives to grow Korean Human Rights Policy); and “North Korea’s security studies further at Harvard and beyond. Healthcare System: How Effectively Can It Priorities for 2021 include convening the next Deal with COVID-19?” (Harvard Medical Harvard Korean Security Summit and hosting School). Our most recent event was “The 2020 an international symposium featuring rising U.S. Presidential Election and Implications for stars in the Korean security studies field. North Korea Policy.” These anchor events reflect the two traditions that drive the Belfer Center’s work: bringing After completing a two-year study titled together leading scholars and practitioners to “Inside the Negotiator’s World: Negotiating diagnose policy puzzles as well as mentoring North Korea’s Denuclearization,” Korea Project the next generation.

ANNUAL REPORT 2020 33 PROJECT UPDATES

Managing the Atom

The Project on Managing the Atom The Project on Managing the Atom (MTA) control and nonproliferation institutions, and (MTA) conducts and disseminates continues to produce and disseminate pol- of individual initiative and creativity in times policy-relevant research on nuclear icy-focused research on nuclear issues, and of crisis, to challenges involving the spread weapons, nuclear energy, and nuclear to engage with officials and experts to reduce of nuclear weapons. That month, MTA also non-proliferation and disarmament. nuclear risks around the world. MTA is a joint published a report on and accompanying visual The project supports an international venture of the Science, Technology, and Public guide on the strategic postures of China and group of pre- and post-doctoral Policy (STPP) program, the International India along their mutual border. fellows and other experts working Security Program (ISP), and the Environment on these issues and helps to advance and Natural Resources Program (ENRP). Developing a new engagement roadmap with their research work through seminars, Iran: As the confrontation with Iran intensified, workshops, and conferences. Strengthening nuclear security policy and im- MTA experts published articles with sugges- plementation: MTA experts engaged regularly tions on pulling back from the brink. Writing in with officials around the world to promote ideas The Boston Globe, Bunn highlighted the dangers Director: for strengthening nuclear security. In February, of inadvertent escalation. Matthew Bunn at the IAEA’s International Conference on Nu- clear Security in Vienna, Principal Investigator MTA also worked with the Middle East Initiative Executive Director: Matthew Bunn and Senior Research Associate to relaunch a Harvard Iran Working Group, which Martin B. Malin Nickolas Roth presented papers on the role of serves as a forum for Harvard experts to collaborate Francesca Giovannini civil society in strengthening nuclear security, and share ideas for reducing the dangers posed by Senior Associate Director: on weak implementation of the “action plans” Iran’s nuclear program and other activities. Gretchen Bartlett developed at the nuclear security summits, and on the need for creative approaches to assessing Recommending steps to strengthen strategic Senior Research Associate: and testing the real effectiveness of nuclear stability between the United States and China: Hui Zhang security systems. While there, Bunn met with Senior Research Associate Hui Zhang used

Senior Research Associate: IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi to discuss satellite imagery analysis and Chinese public Nickolas Roth nuclear security, Iran, and other issues. information to identify the sites of key Chinese reprocessing facilities and reactors. These and Research Associate: Creating a future for nuclear arms control other findings are crucial in updating knowledge Mariana Budjeryn and strengthening the nuclear nonprolifer- of China’s nuclear programs and modernization ation regime: Bunn and Research Associate efforts, which bear directly on strategic stability. Project Coordinator: Jacob Carozza Mariana Budjeryn were key participants in Publications on these topics are forthcoming. the National Academies’ Track II dialogues with Russian counterparts, which focused on Reaching a broader public on nuclear extending New START and laying out a frame- policy issues: MTA staff and fellows authored work for the next arms control agreement. more than 50 publications in 2020, including opinion and analysis pieces, journal articles, In March, MTA published a report by Bunn policy briefs and reports. Fellows and invited and Budjeryn summarizing key lessons from guests presented their work at more than 25 the project’s conference marking the 25th MTA-sponsored events. anniversary of the Budapest Memorandum that codified Ukraine’s nuclear disarmament. The report underscores the importance of arms

34 BELFER CENTER FOR SCIENCE AND INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS PROJECT UPDATES

Middle East Initiative

The Middle East Initiative (MEI) continues to Karam joined Tarek Masoud for a panel on Established in 1998, the Middle advance research, learning, and community the Beirut explosion and the broader political East Initiative (MEI) has expanded engagement on public policy in the region. and economic crises in Lebanon. MEI Senior its programs to address diverse 2020 was an innovative year filled with intellec- Fellow James Snyder led the fall series James topics including alternative energy, tual engagement and program achievements. Snyder in Conversation, a series of dialogues humanitarian crisis response, on art, culture, politics, and the possibilities for economic opportunity, demographic In fall 2020, MEI Faculty Director Tarek Masoud transcending conflict through cultural connec- challenges, and beyond. Through and MEI Research Fellow Yuree Noh launched tion in the modern Middle East. the integration of research and the MENA COVID-19 Economic Impact Survey, policy analysis, education, and which aims to measure the economic and social MEI also co-hosted a virtual workshop in community engagement, MEI aims impacts of the pandemic on residents of the Mid- September, “Frontiers in Big Data Analyses on to advance public policy and build dle East and North Africa. Conducted in collab- Economic Reforms: The Case of Gulf Coopera- capacity in the Middle East. oration with Evidence for Policy Design (EPoD) tion Council Countries,” with the World Bank’s at Harvard Kennedy School, this multi-country Office of the Chief Economist–Middle East and Director: study will generate critical insights for effective North Africa. The program included sessions Tarek Masoud policy design and emergency response, relevant with Rabah Arezki, Chief Economist, Middle for both current and future crises. East and North Africa, World Bank; Ferid Assistant Director: Belhaj, Vice President, Middle East and North Julia Martin To bolster public engagement and reach new Africa, World Bank; MEI Faculty Director Tarek Coordinator for Research Programs audiences, MEI launched a new podcast, Middle Masoud; Ha Nguyen, Senior Economist, MENA and Student Engagement: East Matters. The first episodes will feature con- Chief Economist’s Office, World Bank; HKS Mikaela Bennett versations from our series, USA 2020: The View MPA/ID student Abdullah Saif; and others. from the Arab World. This series was co-hosted by Tarek Masoud and MEI Visiting Fellow Karim In addition to hosting two student RAs via the Haggag, who spoke weekly with Arab thought inaugural Belfer Center Summer Research Assis- leaders on the 2020 U.S. elections and America’s tants Program, MEI was pleased to support three changing role in the Middle East. Speakers HKS students’ summer internships as well as two included Nabil Fahmy, former Foreign Minister of students’ winter research projects this year. the Arab Republic of , Ayad Allawi, former Prime Minister of the Republic of Iraq, and Mina Next spring, MEI’s Research Fellows will al-Oraibi, Editor-in-Chief of The National, among organize a virtual conference on local politics other distinguished guests. 10 years after the Arab uprisings. In addition to the spring conference, MEI looks forward to Moving our events online enabled MEI to building on these programs in 2021, fostering bring expert voices on the region to broader community and engagement to benefit student audiences around the world. In the spring, MEI learning, scholarly research, and the peoples of Senior Fellow Rabah Arezki and MEI Associate the region and beyond. Djavad Salehi-Isfahani delivered seminars on the challenges of the pandemic and concurrent crises in the Middle East. In August, former MEI Research Fellows Jamal Haidar and Lama Mourad and MEI Associate Jeffrey

ANNUAL REPORT 2020 35 PROJECT UPDATES

Russia Matters

Russia Matters’ main aim is to In 2020, Russia Matters continued to grow and We have also continued to engage diverse schol- improve the understanding of Russia generate original, fact-based analysis and promote ars from groups historically underrepresented and the U.S.-Russian relationship the best expertise on Russia. The project, whose or marginalized in the U.S., Europe, and Russia, among America’s policymakers principal investigator is Graham Allison, collabo- republishing commentaries by Brookings’ Frank and concerned public. It does so rates with the Elbe Group and the Belfer Center’s A. Rose and Bonnie Jenkins, commissioning a by showcasing the best expertise U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism piece by Lille Catholic University’s Lucie Messy, on Russia and its relationships and Cyber Project. It is supported by the Carnegie and overall expanding the number of commen- with the rest of the world by Corporation of New York and Stanton Foundation. taries by female scholars. We plan to continue providing top-notch analysis, In January-November 2020: this and other outreach to promote diversity. relevant factual data and related • User numbers rose by 100% year on year digests of news and analysis. • Pageviews rose by 68% RM’s exclusive publications have been widely cited Partners: by international news outlets, including The New Director: Graham Allison • 17 institutional partners York Times, The Washington Post, Foreign Policy, • >20 individual partners The Financial Times, Le Monde, Forbes, , Director: Weekly news and analysis digests have >2,800 CNN, The Nation, RFE/RL, The Christian Science Simon Saradzhyan subscribers, including: Monitor, War on the Rocks, Bloomberg, and by • >100 U.S. government and military officials Russian online sources including Republic.ru, Editor: • >70 officials from foreign governments and The Moscow Times, and Russia in Global Affairs. Natasha Yefimova-Trilling international organizations RM has also accumulated 110 citations in Google Editorial Assistant / Web Coordinator: • >600 scholars from universities worldwide Scholar since its launch. Angelina Flood Social media: • 2,600 Twitter followers Professor Allison has continued his research • 2,400 Facebook followers and publications on managing the U.S.-Russia relationship, with the support of the RM staff and RM staff and associates have worked throughout other projects he supervises. These publications the year to develop the Russia Matters website, include a Foreign Affairsarticle, “The New Spheres contributing their own analytical contents and of Influence,” and an Atlantic article, “Trump commissioning commentaries from America’s Might Not Want to Relinquish Power. Presidents leading Russia experts. RM has published over leave. Czars stick around.” He has also taught 70 exclusive commentaries this year, including a case on Russia’s hypothetical intervention in issue briefs, op-eds, and blog posts. We launched Latvia, which the RM staff helped develop, as part our series of primers on Russia’s impact on vital of a Fall 2020 HKS course he co-taught. U.S. national interests designed for the next U.S. presidential administration. We led the We plan to release a number of insightful ana- effort to prepare a first-of-its-kind U.S.-Russian lytical products next year, including an update of Track 2 product on cyber “rules of the road” in our successful 2018 comparative study of Russia’s collaboration with the Center’s Cyber Project. We national power, a continuation of our Russia also expanded our commentaries by future policy primer series for the incoming U.S. presidential leaders by nearly 25% and engaged with new HKS administration, the Track 2 product on cyber rules students interested in Russia, offering opportu- of the road, and much more. nities for collaboration and conducting informal weekly Razgovor chats featuring guest speakers.

36 BELFER CENTER FOR SCIENCE AND INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS PROJECT UPDATES Science, Technology, and Public Policy

In 2020, the Science, Technology, and Public ogy in Delhi (IITD), where the founding Dean The Science, Technology, and Policy (STPP) Program continued and expanded is Ambuj Sagar, former director of the Energy Public Policy Program draws its long-standing research, training, and poli- Technology Innovation Project at BCSIA. The on insights from scholarly and cy-engagement efforts on multiple fronts. The initial focus of this effort is on electricity-grid applied work in science policy, achievements of the Arctic Initiative (a joint integration to allow deep penetration of technology assessment, political effort of STPP and ENRP) and the Managing the renewables. The BCSIA-IITD link was further science, economics, management, Atom Project (a joint effort of STPP, ENRP, and strengthened at the end of 2020 by the appoint- and law to research and practice ISP) are included elsewhere in this report. ment of STPP postdoc Kaveri Iychettira as an on the intersection of science and IITD Assistant Professor. technology with public affairs. The Energy-Technology Innovation and Deep goal is to develop and promote public Decarbonization. The expanded global dimension of the joint policies that advance the application STPP-ENRP work on energy-technology is of science and technology to This work—which links STPP, ENRP, and the being led by Senior Fellow Nicola De Blasio improvement of the human condition. Harvard University Center for Environment—has under the new title, Global Energy Technology continued to focus mainly on China, India, and Innovation (GETI) Initiative. It expands on Co-Director: the United States but has also, over the past year, long-standing STPP-ENRP work funded by John P. Holdren advanced a related effort with a wider global focus. BP, in which Holdren, Lee, and Schrag have all been involved, and it also connects with Co-Director: The project’s China component—co-led by John Narayanamurti’s Sloan-funded work, with Daniel Schrag Holdren, Daniel Schrag, and ENRP’s Henry Lee— partners at the University of Cambridge and Director Emeritus: has expanded its work with Tsinghua University the University of Minnesota, on ”What factors Venkatesh Narayanamurti to include a newly funded collaboration with its drive innovation in energy technologies?” Center for Sustainability and Climate Change, Administrative Coordinator: focused on comparative exploration of policies Council for the Responsible Use of Artificial Karin L. Vander Schaaf to accelerate innovation in the technologies of Intelligence Faculty Assistant: greatest promise for achieving decarbonization Patricia McLaughlin of the energy sectors of the two countries by 2050 This year, the Council focused on its revision of or 2060. Given the constraints imposed by the the AI Blindspots, a series of questions designed Web Manager: COVID-19 pandemic, regular joint seminars of to help organizations–including corporations, Susan M. Lynch the two teams have been held by video link, and a governments and NGOs–become more aware major video workshop is planned for early spring of the biases and security issues involved 2021. This effort is being led by our STPP postdoc in deploying AI in their activities. A series Fang Zhang, who starts a position as Assistant of workshops on “AI and discrimination” is Professor at Tsinghua’s School of Public Policy and planned for the spring semester. Leadership on Management in January 2021. this effort comes from Dan Schrag and Bruce Schneier. In addition, Schneier has conducted The India component of the project—co-led by research on the potential effects of AI technolo- Holdren and Venkatesh Narayanamurti—has gies on systems like the tax code and elections. recently received new foundation funding for a During the summer of virtual engagement, RAs collaboration featuring joint postdocs between researched both historical incidents and future the Belfer Center-India effort and the School of scenarios. A policy paper is in preparation. Public Policy at the Indian Institute of Technol-

ANNUAL REPORT 2020 37 PROJECT UPDATES Technology and Public Purpose

The Technology and Public In 2020, the TAPP Project kicked off several and U.S. House Committee on Appropriations Purpose Project works to ensure new initiatives such as the Tech Spotlight and on the need for improved science and tech that emerging technologies are TAPP Fellowship and continued its existing expertise in Congress. developed and managed in ways research to advance public purpose values in that serve the overall public good. the design, development, and dissemination of Recommendations for the Biden emerging technologies. Administration on the Role of Tough Tech in

Director: Ensuring Shared, Sustainable Prosperity Ash Carter PROJECT HIGHLIGHTS The TAPP Project also partnered with The Engine Executive Director: Launch of Tech and Public Purpose Fellowship Built by MIT to develop recommendations for the Laura Manley incoming Biden Administration on tough tech pri- This August, we welcomed our inaugural class orities. Tough Tech holds the promise of creating Project Coordinator: Karen Ejiofor of Technology and Public Purpose (TAPP) Fel- entirely new industries as well as revitalizing his- lows. The cohort is composed of seven leading torically foundational sectors such as steel, energy, Research Assistant: practitioners from government, business, and and manufacturing that are under global compet- Amritha Jayanti civil society who are developing solutions to the itive strain to shutter or offshore. The combination public dilemmas of emerging technology. of these breakthrough technologies with the right Research Assistant: government and private sector interventions holds Mike Miesen Welcoming New Non-Resident Fellows the potential to develop breakthrough solutions for Executive Assistant to the challenges that unite us globally. Secretary Carter: The TAPP Project also welcomed five new Henry Kaempf senior leaders from tech and government: Dana New Tech Fact Sheet Series Chisnell, Lisa Gelobter, Marc Lanoue, Nick Sinai, and Emily Tavoulareas. They joined our The TAPP Project also released the next volume current non-resident fellows: DJ Patil, Chris of Tech Fact Sheets for Policymakers including Lynch, and Gretchen Greene. This remarkable 5G, Deepfakes, Quantum Computing, and roster of service-minded technologists has Synthetic Biology. These fact sheets offer a brief contributed signficantly to our project’s mission overview of the technical aspects of salient by sharing their expertise and thoughtful technologies and their public purpose relevance suggestions with our research and programs. for policymakers and their staff.

Building a 21st Century Congress PRIORITIES FOR 2021

Following up on last year’s paper on gaps in As the TAPP Project looks ahead to 2021, we congressional science and tech expertise, we are excited to continue our work in three main launched a new report, Building a 21st Century areas: (1) Expanding the TAPP Fellowship Congress: Improving STEM Policy Advice in the Program; (2) Continuing to work with policy- Emerging Tech Era. This paper analyzes how makers to increase science and tech expertise in to improve pathways for STEM professionals Congress; and (3) Bridging the divide between to serve on Capitol Hill. Executive Director technologists and policymakers through efforts Laura Manley testified to both the U.S. House like our Tech Spotlight and publications such as Committee on Science, Space, and Technology our tech fact sheets.

38 BELFER CENTER FOR SCIENCE AND INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS PROJECT UPDATES U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism

Over the past year, the U.S.-Russia Initiative to These newsletters are distributed to hundreds The US-Russia Initiative to Prevent Prevent Nuclear Terrorism (IPNT) continued to of subscribers, including dozens of government Nuclear Terrorism aims to foster influence the security dialogue between Russia officials, in addition to being posted on the the two countries’ cooperation to and the United States by increasing awareness Initiative’s website and promoted on social prevent the proliferation of nuclear of the threat posed by terrorist theft of nuclear media platforms. He also co-authored a paper weapons and stop acts of nuclear material or weapons, or of attacks against nuclear with Tobey on maintaining secure operations terrorism. Building on existing installations that could result in large-scale at nuclear installations during the COVID-19 efforts to understand and prevent radiation releases. pandemic. nuclear terrorism, this initiative seeks to develop concepts, strategy, The Initiative’s members have engaged poli- The Initiative also provided topics and policy and actions to prevent a successful cymakers and shapers involved in preventing recommendations related to nuclear security for nuclear attack by terrorists. nuclear terrorism. Graham Allison has discussion by the Elbe Group of U.S.-Russian continued to play a lead role in these outreach military and intelligence experts. Director: efforts. Director of the Initiative William Tobey William H. Tobey has advanced ideas for maintaining mutually In the coming year, the Initiative will continue beneficial cooperation, even as the broader to produce newsletters and research related to Assistant Director: U.S.-Russian relationship has suffered from international cooperation to improve nuclear Simon Saradzhyan Moscow’s aggression in Ukraine and interference security. Our report on improving international in U.S. elections. Tobey focused his research in nuclear security cooperation will be released in 2020 on improving nuclear security, and is now January. Also in cooperation with Russia Matters co-authoring a major report on nuclear security and the Cyber Project, the Initiative plans to that should help to inform priorities for the publish a U.S.-Russian exploratory paper on incoming Biden Administration. With a Russian rules of the road for the cyber domain. This co-author, among others, he produced a paper product will explore whether any such rules on recommendations for revising the principle can be applied to nuclear command and control International Atomic Energy Agency guidance systems and nuclear security domains with the on nuclear security, and last fall participated in view that the Elbe Group might become involved an extensive set of weeks-long virtual Track 1.5 in that project. The Initiative will also continue discussions on nuclear safety, security, technolo- to contribute additional ideas to the Elbe Group. gy, and waste management with a wide range of Russian and American experts.

Simon Saradzhyan has continued to produce newsletters for the Initiative, which cover key developments in the sphere of nuclear security, including products by the Initiative’s members.

ANNUAL REPORT 2020 39 40 BELFER CENTER FOR SCIENCE AND INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS The Belfer Center September 2020

ANNUAL REPORT 2020 41 42 BELFER CENTER FOR SCIENCE AND INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS Research, ideas, and leadership for a more secure, peaceful world.

ANNUAL REPORT 2020 43 44 BELFER CENTER FOR SCIENCE AND INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS ANNUAL REPORT 2020 45 PROJECT UPDATES

46 BELFER CENTER FOR SCIENCE AND INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS