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The Political Economy of Terrorism in Xinjiang

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The Political Economy of Terrorism in Xinjiang ROOTED IN POVERTY?: THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF TERRORISM IN XINJIANG By Weiwen Yin Submitted to Central European University Department of Political Science In partial fulfillment of the requirements of the degree of Master of Arts Supervisor: Professor Matthijs Bogaards CEU eTD Collection Budapest, Hungary 2015 Acknowledgement I sincerely thank Professor Matthijs Bogaards‘ supervision in the past few months. He not only offers invaluable guidance on the general structure of the thesis, but also many insightful comments on the details. What is more, it is under his supervision that I started to know about the classics in the field, which would be indispensable for my future academic career. Professor Bogaards has become an intellectual model for me. I would also like to express my gratitude towards the Department of Political Science, Central European University. I have been studying political science and international relations in three different institutions in the past seven years, and I am very proud to tell everyone that this Department at CEU is the best. CEU eTD Collection i Abstract Whether poverty is the cause of terrorism has been one of the most debated puzzles in the study of political economy of terrorism. In Xinjiang, a multi-ethnic region in West China, it is widely believed that higher income level can decrease the likelihood of terrorism conducted by Uyghur separatists or extremists. However, the county-level data in the year of 2013 shows that better economic performance cannot work as is expected. Instead, empirical evidence indicates that income is positively associated with the probability of terrorist attacks, and the effect is statistically significant. An instrumental variable approach also supports that economic growth is hardly a cure to terrorism. A discussion on the causal mechanism between higher income level and terrorist incidents is provided after the empirical analysis. Both the grievance theory and the opportunity structure theory are credited in the causal mechanism. Projects that are aimed at boosting local economic growth result in migrant flood, thus the local Uyghurs are disadvantaged in the employment market. Consequently, economic grievances are generated, along with preexisting political grievances as a result of exclusion from state power. The Uyghurs have a shared motivation to resist, but tight social control in the region constraints the form of resistance, in the sense that neither mass protests nor armed CEU eTD Collection rebellion is feasible. Terrorist attacks that come with a lower cost become the preferable choice. In the end of this paper some alternative causal mechanisms are also discussed. Key Words: Terrorism, Ethnic Conflict, Political Economy, Xinjiang, Uyghurs, China ii Table of Contents Ⅰ Introduction ...................................................................................................... 1 Ⅱ Background of Xinjiang ................................................................................... 6 Ⅲ Literature Review ........................................................................................... 13 Ⅳ Empirical Analysis ......................................................................................... 26 Ⅴ Causal Mechanism ......................................................................................... 41 Ⅵ Further Discussions ........................................................................................ 48 Figures ................................................................................................................. 55 References ........................................................................................................... 59 Appendix 1 .......................................................................................................... 64 CEU eTD Collection iii ―We fight against poverty because hope is an answer to terror. We fight against poverty because opportunity is a fundamental right to human dignity. We fight against poverty because faith requires it and conscience demands it. And we fight against poverty with a growing conviction that major progress is within our reach.‖ ——Former U.S. President George W. Bush1 ―Development is the answer to all puzzles, as well as the key solution to all problems in Xinjiang … Only economic development can alleviate social contradictions, consolidate unification, and achieve people‘s happiness.‖ ——People‘s Dairy2 Ⅰ Introduction Facing the threat of terrorism, many practitioners in different countries have been claiming that there is a direct link between poverty and terrorist activities. Berrebi (2007) collects the speeches given by a number of politicians from the U.S., European countries, and Middle East, and shows the argument that poverty is responsible for terrorism has already been prevalent even before the 9/11. Now they are joined with fellows from a country that used to be kept off ―the radar of the international jihadist movement‖ (Potter, 2013), the People‘s Republic of China (PRC). Although currently nowhere in China is comparable to the situation in Palestine, Iraq or Afghanistan, what is for sure is that China is facing an increasing threat from terrorist attack, CEU eTD Collection mainly in its western borderland, Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, where some Uyghur 1 “Remarks by George W. Bush at the International Conference on Financing for Development,” March 22nd 2002. See: http://www.un.org/ffd/statements/usaE.htm. 2 “Jinmi jiehe gaishan minsheng tuidong fazhan [Improving People’s Livelihood, Promoting Development],” People’s Daily, May 6th 2014. See: http://paper.people.com.cn/rmrb/html/2014-05/06/nw.D110000renmrb_20140506_1-01.htm 1 separatists have been seeking independence ever since the early days of PRC. The violent events reached a peak in the 1990s, but then saw a significant drop in the first decade of the 21st century. The bloody riots that broke out in Urumqi, the capital city of Xinjiang on July 5th 2009 served to be a turning point (See Figure 1). After that, terrorist activity organized by Uyghur separatists becomes much more salient, not only in the region but also in other provinces of China. On October 2nd, 2013, one day after the National Day of China, a car crashed and exploded in the Tiananmen Square, a politically sensitive place in Beijing, causing 5 people dead including three attackers in the car. It is reported that they were Uyghurs and ―a flag imprinted with religious slogans‖ was found.3 6 months later, the Kunming Railway Station, which is located in Southwest China and more than 3000 kms away from Xinjiang, was attacked by 8 Uyghurs with knives, who killed 31 civilians and injured other 141. The incident was so astonishing that media in the West even named it ―massacre‖ when reporting.4 Similar to the claim of George W. Bush, the Chinese leaders respond to increasing terrorist risk with projects that try to promote economic growth. 19 prosperous provinces and cities in East China have been assigned to aid the development of specific areas in Xinjiang. For example, Shanghai‘s task is to contribute to improving people‘s livelihood and promoting CEU eTD Collection sustainable development in four counties of Kashgar, a big but poor city in South Xinjiang 3 “China police call Tiananmen Gate suicide attack an act of terrorism, arrest 5 suspects,” The Washington Post (Asia & Pacific), October 31st 2013. See: http://archive.today/YJeUk#selection-4083.111-4086.0. 4 “Kunming massacre: Has the global jihad reached China?” The Telegraph, March 4th, 2014. See: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/10675219/Kunming-massacre-Has-the-global-jihad-reach ed-China.html. 2 where most local residents are Uyghurs.5 Can these projects be effective as expected? The answer lies in whether poverty (and relevantly, the lack of education) is really the root of terrorism. Although there has been a great volume of literature in the field of terrorism studies on the causal relationship between income and terrorist activities, there is still no similar effort in examining this causality in Xinjiang empirically and systematically. In this paper, I intend to fill this gap by applying the theories and methods of social scientists. I would like to examine the within-region variation of the occurrence of terrorist attacks in Xinjiang. Using the county-level cross-sectional data in 2013, which is the latest available sources, I find that a higher income level measured by GDP per capita cannot decrease the likelihood of terrorist attack in Xinjiang. Its effect is either statistically insignificant or positive, depending on different model specifications, controlled with other variables. Moreover, average years of schooling are statistically indistinguishable from zero at conventional test levels. Since terrorism may also affect economic prosperity, the endogeneity problem exists. An instrumental variable approach is adopted to overcome it, and does not falsify the conclusions mentioned above. My causal chain will also show that income growth without distributional equality is the cause of widespread economic grievance, and because of tight social control, terrorist attacks, rather CEU eTD Collection than mass protests or armed rebellion, becomes the most feasible and influential way to express grievances in the region. 5 A completely list of matching can be found in: http://news.eastday.com/china/kpyj/yuanjiang/. 3 It is beyond doubt that the case of Xinjiang is worthy of careful examination. Not only can it directly
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