2018 SEASON PREVIEW
MEGALOCKS NCAA FOOTBALL / 2018 SEASON PREVIEW
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Welcome to the 2018 MEGALOCKS College Football Preview!
We have all 130 FBS teams covered.
If you are a holder of the 2018 Season Pass, this e-book comes as part of your annual membership. As a member, you also get suggestions for additional reading and content in more detailed team previews on the website.
Not a member yet?
The site megalocks .co has all the content you need for the 2018 college football season from start to fnish!
• Season previews for all 130 FBS teams • Detailed game previews and predictions • Offcial selections on games we believe offer “value” • Suggestions for team season win totals and futures • Access to live handicapping chat! • Participation in the members-only discussion forum • Boxscore review of every game played • Free contests • Industry-leading customer service
What can you expect from the team previews?
If you aren’t familiar with the MEGALOCKS style, we believe in presenting quality and in-depth information in an entertaining format! The odds are that any word or phrase appearing in ALL CAPS is sarcasm. Any reference to a “lock” or similar term implying that there is certainty when predicting the outcomes of college football games is satire.
The term previews are listed in alphabetical order within the division of each conference.
The “power rating” is a representation of how we feel how the teams stack up on paper to begin the season. The ratings change on a weekly basis as games are
3 2018 SEASON PREVIEW played. It doesn’t necessarily represent who we feel will win their respective division as there are other factors at play, such as scheduling.
The “ATS value rating” is our best guess of how successful a team will be vs the point spread. It’s a combination of likelihood and severity. How likely do we believe it to be that ‘Team X’ will have a winning record vs the point spread? What is the potential upside or downside? It’s meant to be a directional indicator and alert us to teams to put on an initial watch list.
If you want to fnd out more about the website, please visit megalocks .co and check out the Video Tour or Learn More pages. There is also a FAQ list, About page and testimonial video that will give you a great idea of what to expect as a member.
These previews were created over the summer and there may have been injuries, transfers or team-related news that is not refected in the document.
One fnal thought.
I am extremely appreciative of the support provided by family and friends! They have allowed me to pursue my dreams and make college football my full-time “job”. I would also like the thank all the great college football fans that I have interacted with over the last number of years. Many of you have become members of the website and I am truly grateful for your support!
Here’s to an exciting and enjoyable 2018 season!
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MEGALOCKS Predictions for the 2018 Season
Here’s how we think things will shake out during the 2018 college football season.
The ‘most likely winner’ differs from the ‘power rating’ in the season preview pages. Power rating refers to how teams stack up on paper to start the season. The ‘most likely winner’ is our prediction of who will rise to the top after schedules are considered. The ‘value play’ refers to a team that could take down the division as something other than the Vegas favorite.
Alabama, Clemson and Georgia are our three highest-rated teams by a good margin. We had to include all of them in our predicted fnal four as we forecast no more than four combined losses. Alabama and Georgia both made it in 2017 and there’s a decent chance we see those teams again in 2018.
Washington was our next choice to make the fnal four, but we can see everyone in the PAC 12 losing at least two games. The Big 12 is extremely competitive and it’s likely that the conference champion gets left of the mix.
American Athletic Conference (AAC)
East division
Most likely winner – UCF
Value play - Temple
West division
Most likely winner – Memphis
Value play - Navy
Conference Champion – Memphis
Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC)
Atlantic division
Most likely winner – Clemson
Value play – Florida St
Coastal division
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Most likely winner – Miami
Value play – Georgia Tech
Conference Champion – Clemson
Big 10
East division
Most likely winner – Ohio St
Value play – Michigan St
West division
Most likely winner – Wisconsin
Value play - Northwestern
Conference Champion - Wisconsin
Big 12
Most likely winner – Oklahoma
Value play - TCU
Conference Champion - Oklahoma
Conference USA
East division
Most likely winner – Marshall
Value play - MTSU
West division
Most likely winner – UAB
Value play – Louisiana Tech
Conference Champion - UAB
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Mid-American Conference
East division
Most likely winner – Ohio
Value play - Buffalo
West division
Most likely winner – Northern Illinois
Value play – Ball St
Conference Champion - Ohio
PAC 12
North division
Most likely winner – Washington
Value play - Stanford
South division
Most likely winner – USC
Value play - Utah
Conference Champion - Washington
Southeastern Conference
East division
Most likely winner – Georgia
Value play - Florida
West division
Most likely winner – Alabama
Value play – Mississippi St
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Conference Champion - Alabama
Sun Belt
East division
Most likely winner – Appalachian St
Value play – Georgia Southern
West division
Most likely winner – Arkansas St
Value play – ULM
Conference Champion – Arkansas St
THE FINAL FOUR
Alabama
Clemson
Georgia
Wisconsin
2018 National Champions
CLEMSON TIGERS
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Table of Contents AMERICAN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE (AAC)...... 17
EAST DIVISION...... 17
CINCINNATI...... 18
CONNECTICUT...... 22
EAST CAROLINA...... 26
SOUTH FLORIDA...... 30
TEMPLE...... 34
UCF...... 38
AMERICAN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE (AAC)...... 42
WEST DIVISION...... 42
HOUSTON...... 43
MEMPHIS...... 47
NAVY...... 51
SMU...... 55
TULANE...... 59
TULSA...... 63
ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE (ACC)...... 67
ATLANTIC DIVISION...... 67
BOSTON COLLEGE...... 68
CLEMSON...... 72
FLORIDA ST...... 76
LOUISVILLE...... 80
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NC STATE...... 84
SYRACUSE...... 88
WAKE FOREST...... 92
ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE (ACC)...... 96
COASTAL DIVISION...... 96
DUKE...... 97
GEORGIA TECH...... 101
MIAMI FLA...... 105
NORTH CAROLINA...... 109
PITTSBURGH...... 113
VIRGINIA...... 117
VIRGINIA TECH...... 121
BIG 10...... 125
EAST DIVISION...... 125
INDIANA...... 126
MARYLAND...... 130
MICHIGAN...... 134
MICHIGAN ST...... 138
OHIO ST...... 142
PENN ST...... 146
RUTGERS...... 150
BIG 10...... 154
WEST DIVISION...... 154
ILLINOIS...... 155
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IOWA...... 159
MINNESOTA...... 163
NEBRASKA...... 167
NORTHWESTERN...... 171
PURDUE...... 175
WISCONSIN...... 179
BIG 12...... 183
BAYLOR...... 184
IOWA ST...... 187
KANSAS...... 191
KANSAS ST...... 195
OKLAHOMA...... 199
OKLAHOMA ST...... 203
TCU...... 207
TEXAS...... 211
TEXAS TECH...... 215
WEST VIRGINIA...... 218
CONFERENCE USA...... 221
EAST DIVISION...... 221
CHARLOTTE...... 222
FIU...... 226
FLORIDA ATLANTIC...... 230
MARSHALL...... 234
MTSU...... 238
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OLD DOMINION...... 242
WESTERN KENTUCKY...... 246
CONFERENCE...... 250
WEST DIVISION...... 250
LOUISIANA TECH...... 251
NORTH TEXAS...... 254
RICE...... 258
SOUTHERN MISS...... 262
UAB...... 266
UTEP...... 269
UTSA...... 273
INDEPENDENTS...... 277
ARMY...... 278
BYU...... 282
LIBERTY...... 286
MASSACHUSETTS...... 289
NEW MEXICO ST...... 293
NOTRE DAME...... 297
MID-AMERICAN CONFERENCE (MAC)...... 301
EAST DIVISION...... 301
AKRON...... 302
BOWLING GREEN...... 305
BUFFALO...... 309
KENT ST...... 313
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MIAMI...... 317
OHIO...... 321
MID-AMERICAN CONFERENCE (MAC)...... 325
WEST DIVISION...... 325
BALL ST...... 326
CENTRAL MICHIGAN...... 330
EASTERN MICHIGAN...... 334
NORTHERN ILLINOIS...... 338
TOLEDO...... 342
WESTERN MICHIGAN...... 346
MOUNTAIN WEST CONFERENCE...... 350
MOUNTAIN DIVISION...... 350
AIR FORCE...... 351
BOISE ST...... 355
COLORADO ST...... 359
NEW MEXICO...... 363
UTAH ST...... 367
WYOMING...... 371
MOUNTAIN WEST CONFERENCE...... 375
WEST DIVISION...... 375
FRESNO ST...... 376
HAWAII...... 380
NEVADA...... 384
SAN DIEGO ST...... 388
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SAN JOSE ST...... 392
UNLV...... 396
PAC 12...... 400
NORTH DIVISION...... 400
CALIFORNIA...... 401
OREGON...... 405
OREGON ST...... 409
STANFORD...... 413
WASHINGTON...... 417
WASHINGTON ST...... 421
PAC 12...... 425
SOUTH DIVISION...... 425
ARIZONA...... 426
ARIZONA ST...... 430
COLORADO...... 434
UCLA...... 438
USC...... 442
UTAH...... 446
SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE (SEC)...... 450
EAST DIVISION...... 450
FLORIDA...... 451
GEORGIA...... 455
KENTUCKY...... 459
MISSOURI...... 463
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SOUTH CAROLINA...... 467
TENNESSEE...... 471
VANDERBILT...... 475
SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE (SEC)...... 479
WEST DIVISION...... 479
ALABAMA...... 480
ARKANSAS...... 484
AUBURN...... 488
LSU...... 492
MISSISSIPPI ST...... 496
OLE MISS...... 500
TEXAS AM...... 504
SUN BELT CONFERENCE...... 508
EAST DIVISION...... 508
APPALACHIAN ST...... 509
COASTAL CAROLINA...... 513
GEORGIA SOUTHERN...... 517
GEORGIA ST...... 521
TROY...... 525
SUN BELT CONFERENCE...... 529
WEST DIVISION...... 529
ARKANSAS ST...... 530
LOUISIANA...... 534
SOUTH ALABAMA...... 537
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TEXAS ST...... 541
ULM...... 545
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AMERICAN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE (AAC)
EAST DIVISION
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CINCINNATI
2017 Recap Record – 4-8 ATS – 5-6
Yuck.
The Bearcats struggled to their second consecutive 4-8 record and the disappointing part about the entire thing is that there were no big wins to hang their hat upon. Austin Peay? Miami Ohio? Tulane? Connecticut? There was no drama. No close calls. Just a tough frst season for HC Luke Fickell. It’s going to take some time to get the Bearcats back to where they belong. Is this the season they take a step forward?
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
East Division – #3
AAC – #8
Cincinnati Bearcats 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
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This is not a scorching hot take, but you need to score points to win games. That’s just good, sound football strategy. The Bearcats only managed to put up 20.9 PPG last year (LAST in AAC) the year after averaging a mere 19.3 PPG (2nd-last AAC). QB Hayden Moore appears to be the favorite in the clubhouse to grab the starting gig one last time. Moore threw for over 2,500 yards last season but had a mediocre completion percentage (56.4%) and TD to INT ratio (20-9). Maybe true freshman Ben Bryant makes a push for the job during fall camp? We will be watching and waiting.
The RB group looks pretty deep and they bring back leading rusher Gerrid Doaks who is just a sophomore. Two of their top-three WRs from last year’s squad are back in the mix but it remains to be seen if they have a true #1 in the group. The offensive line has some decent size but they are very inexperienced as a unit (less than 25 career starts).
The Bearcats may take a small step forward this year but it’s tough to call for a sizeable improvement in production.
DEFENSE The Bearcats were mid-pack in total defense last year (#6 AAC, 429 YPG) and need to fnd a way to get more PENETRATION (12 sacks in 12 games, T10 AAC LY) and create more takeaways (11, tied for last AAC LY).
There is hope on the horizon. The Bearcats have seven returning starters and a HC that knows a thing or two about defense from his time at Ohio St. The front seven should be signifcantly better this year but we do worry about how they get pressure on opposing QBs. The pass defense needs to take a big leap forward and that will be hard to do with only a pair of returning starters and questionable push up front.
Cincinnati allowed 31.8 PPG and we forecast an improvement into the 28-29 PPG range. Upside is there if they fnd a way to create more havoc.
SPECIAL TEAMS
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Cincinnati boasts an excellent punter in James Smith (1st Team AAC) but the rest of the unit appears average on paper.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – It’s pretty tough. They need to play UCLA on the road and must deal with a pair of potential MAC JUGGERNAUTS in Ohio and Miami Ohio. They take to the road to face the two best teams (?) in the division (UCF, Temple). At least there are only fve true road games.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Nothing specifc to note.
Season Win Total
Over 5 -125
Under 5 -105
MEGALOCKS says:
No lean as we approach post time. The team is still in rebuilding mode and bowl eligibility seems like a coin toss right now (6 wins).
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Many of the YOUNG SPARKIES out there are unaware that the Bearcats rolled up FOUR 10+ win seasons over a fve-year time horizon from 2008-2012.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 4.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the BEARCATS a 4.0 ATS Value Rating (Below Average) this season.
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The Bearcats appear to be a team that needs one more season to gather their sea legs. The offense still appears to be relatively weak but we DO see signs of life on defense. Next year just might be the season the Bearcats SHOCK the WORLD as we trust HC Fickell and he has been doing a good job recruiting.
Cincinnati is a pedestrian 44% vs the point spread over the past fve seasons and it’s hard to see much impetus for a positive surge against Vegas in 2018. Pick your spots carefully.
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CONNECTICUT
2017 Recap Record – 3-9 ATS – 5-7
The Huskies failed to do much of anything last season in year one of the EDSALL REBOOT other than SHOCK the WORLD with a puzzling road win at Temple (W 28-24). They fnished the campaign losing their fnal fve games. There is a lot of work to be done to get the program back on track.
Let’s examine their prospects for 2018.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
East Division – #5
AAC – #11
Connecticut Huskies 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Huskies made good strides last season improving by almost 10 PPG. That still ranked them 2nd-last in the conference in scoring offense but it was much
22 MEGALOCKS better than the horror show of 2016 (14.8 PPG) in which they ranked DEAD FREAKING LAST in the FBS.
QB David Pindell started the fnal three games last season and showed some promise. The top-two RBs from last season’s team are back for duty (Kevin Mensah, Nate Hopkins) and they combined for 11 TDs on the ground in 2017. When Pindell chooses to MATRICULATE in the passing game he can look forward to seeing the top-four targets from the WR/TE group all back in the lineup. The offensive line returns three starters and will try to allow fewer than 30 sacks for the frst time since the invention of the steam engine. The mobility at QB should help the ground attack.
We forecast the Huskies to move into the mid-pack of the conference in terms of total offense and scoring offense this year.
DEFENSE
Yuck.
Connecticut allowed 38 PPG and a comical 334 yards (!) through the air last season. They allowed over 100 YPG more than the previous season (411 to 519). And that was with a fairly experienced defense. This year they only return TWO (!) starters and are essentially starting from scratch. It’s hard to project how things will play out in a situation like this but the strength of the defense on paper seems to be on the line where they boast impressive size and a grad transfer from YOUR Miami Hurricanes (Ryan Fines).
The Huskies return just three of their top fourteen tacklers from the 2017 stop unit and fgure to struggle quite a bit on defense this season.
SPECIAL TEAMS
This should not be a sore spot as there is continuity across the board.
Schedule Analysis
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Overall – Have fun with those frst two games (UCF, at Boise St). Things settle down after that and they only face back-to-back roadies once this season, and those games have a bye in-between (at Memphis, at USF).
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Nothing signifcant noted.
Season Win Total
Over 3 -135
Under 3 +105
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean to the over. There are going to be some fat-out ugly losses but it’s not impossible to think they can cobble together a small handful of victories. There are some winners to be found in the group of Rhode Island, at Syracuse, Massachusetts, at Tulsa, SMU, and at East Carolina.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Amaze your HISTORY-CHALLENGED CO-WORKER with this trivia bomb. The Huskies played in the FIESTA BOWL as recently as the 2010 season (lost to Sooners 48-20).
HC Randy Edsall has a career record of 95-106 as HC.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 2.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the HUSKIES a 2.5 ATS Value Rating (Poor) this season.
We can start with some good news. The offense should be good enough to give most of the teams on their schedule some problems. The question we
24 MEGALOCKS need to ask ourselves is, will they be able to stop anybody with a pulse? Hmm. They will probably be a bit better than we think but somewhere around three to four wins would have to be considered a decent accomplishment.
Connecticut has not had a winning season vs the point spread since 2010 when (wait for it) RANDY EDSALL was the HC. It seems highly unlikely that the Huskies will be a money-maker this season, although to be fair, they will be large underdogs on many occasions and may sneak in a few wins vs Vegas.
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EAST CAROLINA
2017 Recap Record –3-9 ATS – 3-9
What in the SAM HILL was that?
The Pirates took the phrase “ripped apart” to an entirely different level last year as they gave up 50+ points on six (!) separate occasions en route to their second consecutive 3-9 campaign. There wasn’t much positive going on although they did manage an upset over BYU.
HC Scottie Montgomery heads into his third season knowing that there needs to be signs of life in 2018.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
East Division – #6
AAC – #12
East Carolina Pirates 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
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The Pirates had 543 pass attempts last season. 542 of those are gone. That means uncertain times for the East Carolina offense when they take the feld in week one. The starting gig will almost certainly go to either sophomore Reid Herring (1 attempt LY) or true freshman Holton Ahlers. Get cho’ popcone.
The Pirates’ top-two RBs are back for duty (Hussein Howe, Darius Pinnix) but neither of them had more than 450 yards rushing in 2017. The best news is the return of star WR Trevon Brown (2nd Team AAC) who is a big play just waiting to happen (60, 1,069, 17.8, 7 TD LY), although the depth behind him at receiver is unproven. There may some hope on the offensive line where they bring back three starters and a ton of size.
DEFENSE
2017 was a complete disaster. They fnished last in the FBS in scoring defense (45.0 PPG) and total defense (542 YPG) which is not the DAILY DOUBLE you want to hit very often. Amirite?
New DC David Blackwell has some fne pedigree given his work at Jacksonville St and will get these guys playing better defense. They lose their top-two tacklers from the 2017 team but do have seven returning starters overall including 3/4 on the defensive line. There is a lot of work to be done but job #1 is plugging holes in a run defense that allowed 246 YPG at almost 6 yards per carry. They allowed 66.6% (DEVILISH number, yo) completions and bagged just 11 sacks in 2017.
With better coaching and more experience the Pirates should be able to hack off 10+ PPG in 2018.
SPECIAL TEAMS
PK Jake Verity was decent last season (16/25 FG attempts) but they need to break in a new P. The kickoff returns were mediocre and the punt return unit was pure flth (more on that below). Kirk Doll was rehired at the STC and hopefully he can coach ’em up.
Schedule Analysis
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Overall – It’s a bit on the nasty side. They only have fve road games but they include visits to USF, Temple, and a BODY BAG game at Virginia Tech. If they can keep things together the fnal three games are winnable (at Tulane, Connecticut, at Cincinnati).
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Virginia Tech (September 15). Virginia Tech might be down a notch this season but that stadium can be an absolute house of horrors. The Pirates will be catching a ton of points but it still might not be enough. East Carolina will also be coming in off a game vs in-state foe North Carolina.
Season Win Total
Over 3.5 +125
Under 3.5 -155
MEGALOCKS says:
Have to take a pass. The line feels about right. Surely the ‘under’ is the way to go but -155 does not make us too excited.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
East Carolina had NET NEGATIVE PUNT RETURN yardage last season. Six returns for a total of (-4) yards. Now, what in the SAM HILL was going on HERE?
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 3.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the PIRATES a 3.5 ATS Value Rating (Below Average) this season.
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Last season we called for a point spread DEBACLE and fnished our analysis with the following…..From an ATS standpoint we usually stay clear of teams with great passing attacks and sketchy defenses.
Can we hit BACK-to-BACK JACKS with our Pirates prognostication?
This feels like another rough season for the East Carolina Pirates. We like the change at DC but worry a lot about the QB position. Maybe the concern is unwarranted? If a pleasant surprise pops up during fall camp the Pirates may be more competitive than it appears on paper.
East Carolina has not had a winning season vs the point spread since 2013 when they crushed it like nobody’s business (7-6 ATS). The past two seasons have been really rough vs the number (6-17-1) and while REGRESSION TO THE MEAN GUY will be frothing at the mouth to bet East Carolina every week, we suggest it might be wise to tread lightly. If they get blown to bits early (North Carolina, Virginia Tech) it will likely set up infated spreads down the line.
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SOUTH FLORIDA
2017 Recap Record – 10-2 ATS – 6-6
South Florida deserves credit for bagging back-to-back 10+ win seasons and a mark of 29-9 over the last three years. The Bulls only lost a pair of games last season and neither was by more than a TD (!). They even took the magical UCF Knights to the wall in the regular season fnale only to come up short in a 49-42 slugfest.
Can HC Charlie Strong lead the men to a division title in 2018?
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
East Division – #4
AAC – #10
South Florida Bulls 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
It’s going to be really strange seeing the Bulls take the feld without their excellent (three-time all-AAC) QB Quinton Flowers. Having said that, we were
30 MEGALOCKS thrilled to see him leave the feld in the Birmingham Bowl a CHAMP by leading the Bulls to a dramatic victory over Texas Tech. The QB situation this season has a number of men in the mix including Arizona St transfer (with some ROLL TIDE pedigree) Blake Barnett. Our SOUTH FLORIDA QB INSIDERS will be keeping a close watch on the situation during fall camp as it will be diffcult to replace the production and leadership of MEGALOCKS FAVORITE Quinton Flowers.
South Florida needs to fnd a replacement for a lot of production at RB and WR. They will be without last season’s top-two RBs (Darius Tice, D’Ernest Johnson) who combined for over 1,700 yards (!) and 18 TDs on the ground last season. Their #1 receiver Marquez Valdes-Scandling is off to the NFL (Packers) but at least their #2 and #3 men return for duty. The offensive line should be in good shape with 3/5 returning starters including 2nd Team AAC member Marcus Norman.
The Bulls delivered a fne output of 38.3 PPG last season but without the mobility and leadership of Flowers, and so many other new faces, it seems reasonable to expect a large drop in production.
DEFENSE
The Bulls played great defense last season (#1 AAC , 360 YPG) and it was an overlooked part of their success. This year they only return fve starters and lose their top-three tacklers from the 2017 stop unit. Among the losses are THREE- time leading tackler LB Auggie Sanchez and DL Deadrin Senat (3rd round NFL DC – Falcons). There are still some nice pieces to work with including DE Greg Reaves (14 TFL, 7 QBH LY), MLB Nico Sawtelle, and a pair of senior starters in the secondary.
There is a lot of tackling and PENETRATION production to replace this year. The defense looks decent on paper but will not be the monster that it was in 2017.
SPECIAL TEAMS
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There is uncertainty surrounding the special teams unit as they need to break in a new PK and P AND fnd new primary return men. Yup, that feels like a rebuild.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – It’s probably as good as you could hope for, but then again, last year’s docket was pretty tame as well. Their toughest out-of-conference match-up is a home date with Georgia Tech.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Temple (November 17). This will be the Bulls 5th road game in seven weeks and they also have the big tilt with UCF on deck. Weather may also suit the Owls.
Season Win Total
Over 8 -107
Under 8 -123
MEGALOCKS says:
Tough call. We will sit on the fence for now. The Bulls will almost certainly take a step backwards but there are not too many challenges on the schedule.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Charlie Strong has a career record of 63-39 (.618) as a head coach. That’s pretty good.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 3.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the BULLS a 3.0 ATS Value Rating (Below Average) this season.
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There are a lot of question marks as we approach the start of the season. It’s hard to know what to expect at QB, but we do know that the offense will not be nearly as explosive as it has been over the past few years. Charlie Strong should help craft a decent defense and the division is not that deep. Hmm. Maybe things don’t look so bad after all?
From a point spread perspective it feels like a team to approach with caution. They are still one of the “name” teams in the conference and it may take a while for Vegas (and bettors) to adjust to the fact this team will look a lot different in 2018. Value might emerge in playing some underdogs when the Bulls are laying medium-large chalk.
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TEMPLE
2017 Recap Record – 7-6 ATS – 7-6
There was no quit in the Owls last season.
Temple started off losing fve of their frst eight games but turned everything around after a tough OT loss to Army. The Owls won four of their fnal fve games including a Gasparilla Bowl win for the ages (28-3 win over FIU who played without their starting QB for almost the entire game). A win over Navy was probably the signature victory on the docket.
They will have to take a pretty big step forward to challenge UCF in the division. Is it possible? Let’s fnd out.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
East Division – #2
AAC – #5
Temple Owls 2018 Outlook
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OFFENSE
Senior QB Frank Nutile is back to lead the Temple offense after playing solid football down the stretch. The Owls’ offense was potent under his direction and hopefully they can fnish where the left off last season. RB Ryquell Armstead is capable of carrying the load in the run game but they will defnitely miss David Hood who retired from football. Temple will be without their top-two WRs from last year’s team but we love the versatility of Isaiah Wright (68 receptions, 188 rushing yards, KR TD, PR TD last season) and the receiving corps will welcome the return of a healthy Ventell Bryant (895 yards receiving in 2016).
Temple only managed to score 25.1 PPG last season but should be better with a full season with Nutile at the controls. Our only worry is an offensive line that only returns two starters. They did a decent job in pass protection in 2017 but only paved the way for 136 YPG rushing (#10 AAC LY)
DEFENSE
The Owls were decent on defense last season but it was still their worst performance since the 2013 campaign in which they recorded a record of 2-10. They tallied an impressive 39 sacks last year (#1 AAC) but were not stout enough to be a true contender for the division title. This season they bring back fve starters in the front seven as well as 1st Team AAC safety Delvon Randall. Leading tackler LB Shaun Bradley is also back for duty.
We think that Temple has a shot at being the #1 defense in the conference, and certainly a top-four unit.
SPECIAL TEAMS
The Owls will be happy to hear that return man Isaiah Wright returns this year fresh off a performance in which he returned a kickoff and a punt to DA HOUSE. PK Aaron Boumerhi hit 15/23 FG attempts last year.
Schedule Analysis
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Overall – Things don’t look too bad. The out-of-conference schedule is very manageable but they have to deal with some tough conference road tilts (Navy, UCF, Houston).
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Maryland (September 15). The Terps look to be much improved this year and the Owls have their frst conference game on deck (Tulsa).
Season Win Total
Over 6.5 -130
Under 6.5 +100
MEGALOCKS says:
Strong lean to the over. It seems like the Owls are well-positioned to make some noise in the AAC this year.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Shock your LAZY and OCCASIONALLY SLEEPY co-worker with this trivia nugget. Temple is the last original Big East football member still in the AAC AND the only original BCS Automatic Qualifying team not to be lingering within the current POWER 5 conferences.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 6.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the OWLS a 6.0 ATS Value Rating (Above Average) this season.
36 MEGALOCKS
First things frst. We did not foresee great things (or even “average” things) from the Owls vs Vegas last season and they still battled to a winning mark vs the point spread. What about 2018?
The Owls look ready to challenge for an East division crown. UCF is going to be a handful but Temple does not have any major weakness that we can see. The offensive line play needs to be better and QB Nutile needs to have a good season. We are not worried about the defense.
From an ATS perspective, Temple has been a money-making machine for a long time. A lot of that history came under the watch of Matt Rhule, but we feel that Geoff Collins did a fne job keeping this team together last season and slightly overachieving vs Vegas. We like these guys to be decent play vs the point spread over the course of the 2018 campaign.
37 2018 SEASON PREVIEW
UCF
2017 Recap Record – 13-0 ATS – 7-4-1
BOOM goes the DYNAMITE.
The Knights moved like a TREMENDOUS MACHINE last year running the table and fnishing with an undefeated record of 13-0. Memphis gave them all they could handle in the AAC Championship Game, but the Knights would not be denied. They topped off their amazing run with an impressive win over the Auburn Tigers in the Peach Bowl.
Former HC Scott Frost is off to the land of CORN. What can the Knights do for an encore under new boss Josh Heupel?
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
East Division – #1
AAC – Tied #1
UCF Knights 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
38 MEGALOCKS
The Knights were the #1 scoring offense (!) in the FBS last season averaging an amazing 48.2 PPG during their run to undefeated glory. Star QB McKenzie Milton is back to do more damage and he was amazing in 2017 throwing for over 4,000 yards and 37 TDs whilst rushing for another 8 TDs on the ground. Milton was a 4th Team AA and fnished #8 in the Heisman voting. You could probably justify a few notches higher but that was quite the season for the UCF QB.
The top-four rushers (including Milton) from last year’s squad are back for duty and it is always exciting to watch the Knights RELEASE THE KILLINS. Adrian Killins has lethal speed and is coming off a season in which he led the team in rushing yards (790, 10 TDs) and caught 25 passes. The offensive line undergoes a bit of a reload as three former starters depart. The offense will also be without #1 WR Tre’Quan Smith (1,171, 19.9, 13 TDs LY) who was a 4th team AA (NFL – Saints) and dangerous TE Jordan Akins (NFL – Bills).
As long as Milton is at the controls we predict freworks for the UCF offense. They were impossibly good last year and it seems reasonable to expect a Top-10 fnish in scoring offense and total offense. It’s not fair to expect almost 50 PPG.
DEFENSE
The defense allowed a lot of yards last season as their offense scored FAST and opposing teams tried desperately to match the Knights’ output. UCF fnished #93 in total defense but they only allowed 25.3 PPG (#52 FBS). This year they bring back six starters to the stop unit but have a number of key losses to deal with including 4th Team AA LB Shaquem Griffn (NFL – Seahawks) and #1 NFL DC CB Mike Hughes (Vikings). There is at least one excellent player remaining at every level of the defense. DT Trysten Hill (2nd Team AAC), LB Patrick Jasinski (leading tackler LY), and SS Kyle Gibson (1st Team AAC) form the core of another good-looking defense.
SPECIAL TEAMS
The Knights are set in the kicking game with 2nd Team AAC selections at PK (Matthew Wright 13/18 FG LY, 4/6 40+) and P (Mac Loudermilk (38.7 net).
39 2018 SEASON PREVIEW
They will defnitely miss ace return man Mike Hughes who had 3 TDs on returns in 2017 (2 KO, 1 PR).
Schedule Analysis
Overall – SMOOOOOTH. Sound familiar? Out-of-conference games against Florida Atlantic and Pitt might be tricky but it’s another nice-looking schedule. Added bonus? Only fve road games. They will have to stay focused during conference play because there are more than a few teams that could upset the apple cart.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at North Carolina (September 15). This might be a sneaky spot for the Tar Heels to SHOCK the WORLD as they were pretty awful last season and Knights have a big game with the FIGHTING KIFFINS of Florida Atlantic on deck.
Season Win Total
Over 9.5 +100
Under 9.5 -120
MEGALOCKS says:
No leanage as we go to press. Through no fault of their own, the Knights will not be as good this season BUT 9.5 wins feels like a tough number to bet.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
UCF started as a Division III program in 1979.
The Knights were (-20) in turnover margin in 2015 when they went 0-12. They were 13-0 last season and were a very fne (+17) in the turnover department.
40 MEGALOCKS
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 5.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the KNIGHTS a 5.0 ATS Value Rating (Average) this season.
Here we go!
How long can the Knights keep the winning streak going? New HC Josh Heupel has a lot of talent to work with on offense and knows a thing or two about how to run a high-octane machine. It’s not going to hurt having a Heisman-Caliber QB at the controls and UCF is still going to be HOT STUFF when they have the ball. We worry about signifcant missing pieces on defense and the inevitable fact that they will get their opponents’ best shot every week.
It’s hard to project their fortunes vs the point spread with a new sheriff in town as HC. We will take a neutral view for now vs Vegas.
41 2018 SEASON PREVIEW
AMERICAN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE (AAC)
WEST DIVISION
42 MEGALOCKS
HOUSTON
2017 Recap Record – 7-5 ATS – 6-6
The frst season of the Major Applewhite era was a bit of a disappointment as the Cougars fnished with a record of 7-5. It certainly wasn’t a disaster but fans were certainly expecting a bit more. The good news is that they found a REALLY exciting QB and they still boast one of the best players in college football on their defensive line.
Let’s see what the Cougars are all about this season.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
West Division – #3
AAC – #4
Houston Cougars 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
43 2018 SEASON PREVIEW
Houston found a really dangerous dual-threat QB last year in D’Eriq King who proved to be accurate with his throws (64.7%) and a TD-machine with his legs (8 rushing TDs) in limited action as the starter. King will face the challenge of moving the offense without a lot of the key parts from the 2017 team including leading rusher Duke Catalon and their top-two WRs. The RB crew will be buoyed by the addition of Baylor transfer Terrance Williams who rushed for over 1,000 yards in 2016 and the offensive line looks really good on paper. It remains to be seen what kind of chemistry King can develop with the new WR group when he chooses to MATRICULATE down the feld in the passing game. We love the addition of OC Kendal Briles who had the same role at Florida Atlantic last year.
Houston scored 28.3 PPG last season (#7 AAC) and we forecast them scoring more than 30 PPG in 2018.
DEFENSE
Yes, guy.
It never hurts to have one of the best players in college football on your defensive line. Ed Oliver is a sure-fre top-fve NFL draft pick next season if things go as planned. They only return fve starters to the stop unit but the DL looks stout and the secondary should be solid. The Cougars allowed a paltry 10 (!) TD passes in 2017 (T2 FBS) and they add Ole Miss S Deontay Anderson as well as Notre Dame transfer CB Nick Watkins to the secondary. The Cougars will almost certainly feld one of the best defenses in the AAC.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Things look pretty solid. The kicking game will be a team strength with both K Caden Novikoff (12/15 FG attempts LY) and P Dane Roy (39.2 net) garnering 2nd Team AAC status last season. They need to reload in the return units.
Schedule Analysis
44 MEGALOCKS
Overall – Houston starts the season with a FREE SQUARE (Rice) but follow that up with a couple of sneaky-tough games (Arizona, at Texas Tech). They play their two main divisional rivals (Navy, Memphis) on the road.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at SMU (November 3rd). This game follows dates with Navy and USF and precedes a home date with AAC East division contender Temple. It’s also a game SMU would love to steal from their interstate rival.
Season Win Total
Over 8 -105
Under 8 -125
MEGALOCKS says:
No leanage at this time. We handicapped the number right at eight wins. There’s probably more upside than downside with this squad but we will take a pass for now.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Houston’s football history includes stops in the Lone Star Conference, the Gulf Coast Conference, and the Missouri Valley Conference.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 6.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the COUGARS a 6.0 ATS Value Rating (Above Average) this season.
The Cougars look to have the right ingredients to contend for a conference title. The skill positions on offense are a bit of a question mark but they have the QB/defense combo that you like to see. The Cougars should be a decent
45 2018 SEASON PREVIEW play vs the point spread on many occasions this season and we will prefer to look to them when short favorites or underdogs.
46 MEGALOCKS
MEMPHIS
2017 Recap Record – 10-3 ATS – 7-5-1
The Tigers treated us to a lot of exciting football last season right up until the fnal whistle. They rolled through the conference schedule but could not take down the UCF Knights. The AAC Championship Game was marvelous theater and it was the Knights who prevailed in double overtime. They fnished the season with a tough loss to Iowa St in the Liberty Bowl (L 21-20)
Memphis has rattled off four consecutive 8+ win seasons. Can they make it a FIVE-BAGGER?
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
West Division – #1
AAC – Tied #1
Memphis Tigers 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
47 2018 SEASON PREVIEW
The Tigers had the #4 scoring offense in the FBS last season (45.5 PPG) and were balanced and explosive. That’s not a bad combination. Star QB Riley Ferguson had a remarkable senior campaign throwing for well over 4,000 yards and 38 TDs. The new man at the controls will be Arizona St transfer Brady White, or possibly sophomore David Moore. It’s not fair to expect Ferguson-like production but we trust HC Norvell to get the NEXT MAN UP and ready to play. We worry about the loss of a 2nd round draft pick and remarkable target in Anthony Miller (1,462, 18 TDs LY) but they do have plenty of talent remaining at WR and TE.
The rushing attack promises to be devastating with the return of 1st Team AAC honoree Darrell Henderson who averaged 8.9 (!) yards per carry and rushed for well over 1,000 yards last season. Patrick Taylor was equally effective rushing for 866 yards and 13 TDs. The offensive line brings back 4/5 starters and looks like the best in the conference on paper.
The Tigers project to have one of the top offenses in the conference and will probably come close to 40 PPG once again, even with the departure of Ferguson and Miller.
DEFENSE
Memphis allowed over 30 PPG last year (32.5) for the frst time since 2012 but we expect a better performance in 2018. They return eight starters to the stop unit and have talent at every level of the defense. They will miss the chaos provided by Genard Avery (22 TFL, NFL – Browns) but return their top two tacklers as well as excellent CB TJ Carter (2nd Team AAC, 11 PBU, 5 INT LY). We expect the run defense to improve a bit this season (#6 AAC LY) but worry a bit about replacing the PENETRATION provided by Avery. We anticipate the Tigers coming up with a performance similar to the level of the 2016 defense (28.8 PPG).
SPECIAL TEAMS
48 MEGALOCKS
PRO TIP. Do NOT kick the ball to Tony Pollard (4 KO return TD LY, 40.1 average). PK Riley Patterson did a decent job last season (11/16 FG attempts) but they need to break in a new P.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – It’s close to a dream. The non-conference docket features a road game at Missouri BUT also allows them to (theoretically) paste Mercer, Georgia St, and South Alabama. They only have four road games (wut?) and get UCF and Houston at home.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Nothing evil-looking to note.
Season Win Total
Over 8.5 -120
Under 8.5 -110
MEGALOCKS says:
Strong lean to the over. This team looks pretty solid.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
The Tigers began their football journey back in 1912 under the name of West Tennessee State Normal School.
Memphis has banked a positive turnover margin in four consecutive seasons and has a combined (+42) mark over that time horizon.
49 2018 SEASON PREVIEW
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 7.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the TIGERS a 7.0 ATS Value Rating (Good) this season.
Memphis looks ready to make another run at a conference title. The offense should have no problem scoring points and the defense will be good enough to keep them in every game. The schedule is very favorable although it is important to note that Navy and Houston are going to be tough outs. We love the look of the running game and think the Tigers have enough overall balance to be a money-maker in 2018.
50 MEGALOCKS
NAVY
2017 Recap Record – 7-6 ATS – 5-8
It was a tale of two seasons.
The Middies got off to a fne 5-0 start that included wins over Florida Atlantic and Air Force but they lost of bunch of close games in the second half of the season. In fact, they did not lose a single game last season by more than 10 points. They lost an entertaining match-up vs arch-rival Army (L 14-13) but made up for it by destroying Virginia in the Military Bowl (W 49-7).
There is no doubt that Navy is hungry to contend in the AAC West. Do they have what it takes?
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
West Division – #2
AAC – #3
Navy Midshipmen 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
51 2018 SEASON PREVIEW
RIDDLE ME THIS. When is the last time you can recall a team returning a PAIR of QBs that each rushed for over 1,000 yards in the previous season? We will hang up and listen.
Zach Abey is moving to WR (1,413 yards rushing, 19 TD LY) and it will be up to the electric Malcolm Perry to lead the offense. All Perry did was rush for 1,182 yards and 11 TDs at an astounding 8.6 (!) yards per carry, and that included a fantastic performance vs Army in the regular season fnale (250 yards on the ground). The rushing attack was #2 in the FBS last season (351 YPG) and we think they will continue to steamroll the opposition in 2018. If Perry can do a decent job of hitting wide open receivers from time to time this offense is going to be potent.
Navy averaged 30.5 PPG last season which was their lowest total since 2012 (25.0). We anticipate the Middies scoring 35+ PPG in 2018.
DEFENSE
Navy does a good job on defense and have only allowed more than 30 PPG once this decade (2016 – 31.0). It helps that the offense stays on the feld for hours at a time but the defense is well coached and the men play hard on every snap.
Navy was #2 (!) in the conference in total defense last season and we expect similar results in 2018. They should almost certainly fnish in the top-four. The defensive line looks strong, LB Hudson Sullivan is healthy and ready to lead the LB group, and FS Sean Williams was second on the team in tackles last year. The Middies don’t cause a lot of chaos (16 sacks LY) but make you work for what you get.
SPECIAL TEAMS
They return P Owen White (38.0 net LY) but need to get more reliable performance from PK Bennett Moehring who made just 8/15 FG attempts in 2017 (1/4 40+ yards). The return units will probably lack explosiveness.
Schedule Analysis
52 MEGALOCKS
Overall – They will be challenged from start to fnish. They have to face Memphis in week two after playing in Hawaii the prior week. They also face Notre Dame out in San Diego and have just one home game after October 20th.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Cincinnati (November 3rd). This might be a tough spot as the game falls after a tough three-game stretch (Temple, Houston, Notre Dame) and before a road clash with UCF.
Season Win Total
Over 7.5 -120
Under 7.5 -110
MEGALOCKS says:
Strong lean to the over. They aren’t going to go undefeated but will likely be large underdogs in only two games (Notre Dame, at UCF).
MEGAmazing Tidbits
You don’t necessarily think “home feld advantage” when discussing Navy football but they are an impressive 44-11 at home over the past ten seasons.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 9.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the MIDSHIPMEN a 9.5 ATS Value Rating (Whoa, Nellie!) this season.
Let’s get this out of the way. 1) We thought Navy would be an ATS JUGGERNAUT last season. Oops. 2) We love these guys.
53 2018 SEASON PREVIEW
The truth of the matter is this. Navy is going to be a lot more dangerous on offense this season and the defense will be it’s usual decent-self when on the feld for about six minutes per game. The schedule is pretty diffcult but we think that will help the Middies stay under-the-radar and make some coin this season.
Anchors Aweigh!
54 MEGALOCKS
SMU
2017 Recap Record – 7-6 ATS – 6-6-1
Chad Morris did a fne job with the Mustangs increasing their win total every year as HC. As recently as 2015 they were a two-win team. SMU got SMOKED by the FIGHTING HOLTZES of Louisiana Tech in the Frisco Bowl (L 51-10) but still had a fne seven-win campaign.
New HC Sonny Dykes brings the AIR RAID to Dallas. Can they upset the apple cart in the AAC West this year?
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
West Division – #5
AAC – #7
SMU Mustangs 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
It should only take a few games for QB Ben Hicks to become the school’s all- time leading passer. Hicks has already thrown for a ton of yards and now gets to
55 2018 SEASON PREVIEW operate in the Air Raid offense. There is no doubt he will put up big numbers (3,569, 33 TD LY) but it will be with more short-medium range throws, particularly with the departure of star WR Courtland Sutton who was taken in the 2nd round of the NFL draft (Broncos). SMU will also be without WR Trey Quinn who had over 1,200 yards receiving in 2017. They still have WR James Proche (20.4 YPC LY) and add a pair of grad transfers to the mix.
It will be interesting to see how SMU utilizes their loaded RB group in the new offense. It would seem silly to waste all the talent that they have at the position. They possess a THREE-HEADED MONSTER in Xavier Jones (1,075, 9 TD LY), Braeden West (7.8 YPC) and Ke’Mon Freeman (11 TD). The offensive line brings back three starters but will miss their fne C Evan Brown.
SMU lit up opposing defenses for 478 YPG (#4 AAC) last season. It’s hard to know how quickly they will adapt to the new offensive system but they are loaded with talent, even with the departure of two excellent wide receivers.
DEFENSE
SMU hasn’t allowed less than 30 PPG since 2012, and strangely enough, that was the last season prior to 2017 that they had a winning record. Last year they allowed 36.7 PPG and will be without star DE Justin Lawler (9.5 sacks, 20 QBH LY) in 2018. The good news is that new DC Kevin Kane (Northern Illinois) has eight starters returning to the stop unit including leading tackler S Mikial Onu and LB Kyran Mitchell (15.5 TFL LY). We worry about a pass defense that got ripped to shreds in 2017 and will not have the beneft of Mr Lawler causing havoc on the DL.
The jury is still out but we think they can take a small step forward in overall performance.
SPECIAL TEAMS
RUH ROH.
56 MEGALOCKS
The Mustangs’ return units were abysmal last year (#121 PR, #91 KR) and they need to break in a new PK.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – Whoa. The beginning of the schedule is nasty. They start out with a road game vs North Texas and follow that up with a game vs TCU. Then comes the week three BODY BAG game at Michigan.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Navy (September 22). Have fun with the option the week after getting mercilessly pounded by Michigan.
Season Win Total
Over 5.5 +120
Under 5.5 -150
MEGALOCKS says:
No LEANAGE at the moment. The schedule is a bit scary but it’s not impossible to see them getting to a bowl game with that offense.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
The SMU football team was originally known as the PARSONS due to the large number of theology students on the team.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 5.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the MUSTANGS a 5.0 ATS Value Rating (Average) this season.
57 2018 SEASON PREVIEW
It’s hard to know what to think about year one of the Sonny Dykes era. The offense has talent all over the place but it remains to be seen how potent they will be in the Air Raid. The defense is still a work in progress but snagging NIU DC Kevin Kane was a smart move in our estimation.
Sonny Dykes has a career record of 41-45-1 vs the point spread as a head coach. We fnd it hard to forecast anything other than an average season vs the number.
58 MEGALOCKS
TULANE
2017 Recap Record – 5-7 ATS – 8-4
Everyone likes to talk about “bad beats” and close calls. Poor me.
Well, Tulane came THIS close to a bowl appearance last season falling a few inches short of achieving bowl eligibility. Annoying TOO MANY BOWL GAMES GUY will say “who cares” but it was a disappointing end to a season in which Tulane faced NINE bowl-eligible squads.
Unfnished business, yo.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
West Division – #4
AAC – #6
Tulane Green Wave 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
59 2018 SEASON PREVIEW
Tulane ranked #10 in the AAC in scoring last season (27.5 PPG) and need to PUMP UP THE VOLUME to get into the AAC West conversation. They are set at QB with senior Jonathan Banks who was effcient in the passing game (12-5 TD to INT) and dangerous with his legs (592, 7 TD). Tulane wants to come at you with the rushing attack and they did a good job of that last year averaging 232 YPG on the ground (#4 AAC). Leading rusher Dontrell Hilliard departs (1,091, 12 TD LY) but they have depth in the unit that includes highly-regarded Texas Tech transfer Corey Dauphine. The offensive line looks great on paper after the addition of 1st Team Sun Belt honoree LT Noah Fisher.
The receiving corps looks solid with the top-three returning for duty and we project Tulane to come close to 30 PPG this year (27.5 LY).
DEFENSE
This might be a problem.
Tulane dropped from #3 in the conference in total defense to #7 last season (436 YPG). This year they only bring back fve starters to a unit that allowed an average of 210 rushing yards per contest whilst tallying a mere 14 sacks. The DL and LB groups are a question mark as they move on without their top-two tacklers from the 2017 stop unit. The secondary is the strength of the defense but they lost their best player (CB Parry Nickerson) who bagged 6 INTs last year.
The Green Wave will do well to hold opponents to under 30 PPG in 2018 (29.2 LY).
SPECIAL TEAMS
The return units could defnitely use some improvement but they should be fne in the feld goal kicking department with PK Merek Glover (8/9 FG LY). Tulane may end up going with a true freshman at P.
Schedule Analysis
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Overall – Hopefully iron sharpens iron. Tulane faces a tough non-conference schedule with Wake Forest, UAB, and Ohio St (!) on the docket. They also play in the deeper half of the AAC.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Houston (November 15). It’s not a great spot for the Green Wave on THURSDAY night as it will be their 3rd road game in twenty days with Houston seeking revenge.
Season Win Total
Over 5.5 +110
Under 5.5 -140
MEGALOCKS says:
Strong lean to the over. I know, I know. The schedule is tough but these guys are hungry to get to a bowl game and they just might start out with two or three wins (?). Wake Forest will be without their starting QB, Nicholls St, should be a free square and UAB is good (but beatable). Taking the over at plus money seems like a decent play.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
The Green Wave last tasted post-season victory in the 2002 Hawaii Bowl when they SHOCKED the WORLD as 14-point underdogs (beat Hawaii 36-28).
Tulane won the SEC conference championship in 1949.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 7.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the GREEN WAVE a 7.0 ATS Value Rating (Good) this season.
61 2018 SEASON PREVIEW
Last year we ASTOUNDED the college football prognostication LANDSCAPE with our call on Tulane……This year they are a lot more experienced and HC Willie Fritz is a MEGALOCKS favorite. They will be a tough team to prepare for and will be underdogs on most occasions. They may not get to a bowl game but we can easily see these guys bagging 8+ wins vs the point spread.
They did indeed BAG eight wins vs Vegas. What about this year?
The offense should be the best Tulane has felded in a long time and the head coach is still one of our favorites. It seems that the Green Wave has a shot at improving their win total for the third consecutive season if the defense can fnd a way to be no worse than “slightly-below-average”.
Willie Fritz has a 42-28-3 (60%) record vs the point spread as a head coach. We forecast another money-making season for THE WAVE.
62 MEGALOCKS
TULSA
2017 Recap Record – 2-10 ATS – 5-7
Yikes.
The Golden Hurricane missed bowl season for the frst time under the watch of HC Philip Montgomery and only managed to bag a pair of wins the entire season. They did SHOCK the WORLD with a blowout victory over Houston (W 45-17) but that was the only bright spot worth speaking about.
Can they turn it around in 2018?
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
West Division – #6
AAC – #9
Tulsa Golden Hurricane 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
63 2018 SEASON PREVIEW
The offense took a step backwards last season after the departure of the school’s all-time passing leader Dane Evans. Startle the local PIZZERIA STAFF with this nugget. Only Army threw fewer TD passes than Tulsa (6) did last season. Luke Skipper and Chad President are both back to battle for the starting QB gig and they need to fnd a way to increase the passing production. The majority of the WR and TE group returns to the fold including 2nd Team AAC member Justin Hobbs (830, 15.1, 3 TD LY).
The rushing attack will be without the school’s all-time leading rusher (D’Angelo Brewer) but still has some talent to rely upon, and don’t forget the Golden Hurricane rushed for a very impressive 247 YPG (#3 AAC, #14 FBS) in 2017. They return three starters to the offensive line including 1st Team AAC C Chandler Miller.
Tulsa scored 29.3 PPG last season and we expect a slight uptick in production.
DEFENSE
A wise man once told us that things will not go well if your defense ranks #127 in rushing defense and #127 in pass effciency D. Tulsa allowed over 500 YPG for the second time in three years and there is no way you can contend for a division title with that kind of DEBACLE. They bring back seven starters to the stop unit including their top-two tacklers and a pair on the defensive line. The secondary has experience. Hopefully this will all lead to improved performance.
We are skill skeptical about the defense. They have to fnd a way to cut down on the rushing yards allowed (265 YPG) and get more PENETRATION (12 sacks in 12 games LY).
SPECIAL TEAMS
Tulsa will defnitely miss reliable PK (and all-time scoring leader) Redford Jones and need to show improvement in the return units.
Schedule Analysis
64 MEGALOCKS
Overall – It looks diffcult. They have road games at Texas and Arkansas. Yikes. They also have tough conference road tilts with Temple, Houston, and Memphis.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Nothing noted.
Season Win Total
Over 4.5 -105
Under 4.5 -125
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean to the under as we approach post time. It’s not impossible to see them making a bowl game but it seems to us that they better do some solid work at home.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Tulsa is a private research university with an enrollment of less than 5,000 students. They have managed to bag FOUR 10+ win seasons in the past ten years (2008, 2010, 2012, 2016).
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 4.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the GOLDEN HURRICANE a 4.0 ATS Value Rating (Below Average) this season.
The Golden Hurricane will be able to cause problems for opponents when they are on offense but it remains to be seen if they can get above-average production from the QB position. The problem appears to be a defense that needs to make signifcant strides in order for Tulsa to be considered players in the AAC West.
65 2018 SEASON PREVIEW
We wouldn’t be shocked if they pulled a surprise or two but we recommend taking a cautious approach when considering backing Tulsa vs the point spread.
66 MEGALOCKS
ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE (ACC)
ATLANTIC DIVISION
67 2018 SEASON PREVIEW
BOSTON COLLEGE
2017 Recap Record – 7-6 ATS – 9-4
The Eagles had some ups and downs and fnished with their fourth 7-win campaign in the past fve seasons. The schedule was nasty but they still managed to take down Louisville on the road as 21-point dogs and beat the living you- know-what out of Florida St in a 80,000 STAR MEGALOCKS ACC HAMMER LOCK MAX UNIT BOMB (won 35-3 as fve-point dogs). They won their fnal two regular season games and played well enough to beat Iowa in the Pinstripe Bowl but fell a bit short (lost 27-20).
Things are looking up for the Eagles this season. Let’s take a look.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Atlantic Division – #3
ACC – #4
Boston College Eagles 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
68 MEGALOCKS
Hey, now.
No Boston College Eagles football preview would be appropriate without starting with MEGALOCKS favorite and BEAST RB AJ Dillon who rushed for almost 1,600 yards and 14 TDs as a freshman (!) last year. Dillon is one of those rare talents that makes you feel sorry for the opposing defense and sadly those players do not come around too often. Dillon has a shot at a yuuuuuge season if he can stay healthy because he is running behind a seasoned (5/5 returning starters) and big offensive line. They also return their top-six WR and TE targets from last year including leading receiver TE Tommy Sweeney. Freshman QB Anthony Brown was developing into a dangerous weapon before suffering a heinous injury vs NC State late in the year. We expect him to build on the experience he gained in 2017.
The Eagles scored 25.7 PPG last year (#12 ACC) and we forecast a move over 30 PPG in 2018.
DEFENSE
It was a bit of a strange defensive campaign as the Eagles were excellent vs the pass (#3 FBS pass effciency D) but sketchy vs the run (191 YPG, #93 FBS). This came after the Eagles had been a TOUR DE FORCE in run defense over the previous three seasons (109, 83, 94 rushing YPG allowed). This year the Eagles bring back six starters to the stop unit and look strong at every level of the defense. DE Zach Allen (2nd Team ACC) is poised for a yuuuuge senior season (15.5 TFL, 6 QBH LY), the LB group has a pair of solid returning veterans and the secondary looks good even considering the loss of two NFL draft picks at CB. The safety combo of Lukas Denis (2nd Team AA) and William Harris is going to be a force.
The Eagles allowed 22.8 PPG last season and we foresee a similar level of performance in 2018.
SPECIAL TEAMS
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The group appears to be hit and miss. The return game was fne last year and the key players return in 2018. The Eagles need to break in a new P and PK Colton “Loose Cannon” Lichtenberg was 12/20 on FG attempts last season (2/8 from 40+).
Schedule Analysis
Overall – It’s not overwhelming. They start out with a pair of (theoretical) warm- ups with Massachusetts and Holy Cross and only have two (!) road games after October 6th. However, they better not start slow because they face a QUADRUPED OF DOOM late in the season (Miami, at Virginia Tech, Clemson, at Florida St).
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Nothing signifcant to note.
Season Win Total
Over 6.5 -150
Under 6.5 +120
MEGALOCKS says:
Neutral stance for now. We would lean to the over except for the high tax of -150.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Boston College has never had a negative turnover margin in fve years under the watch of HC Steve Addazio (combined +19).
QB U. Doug Flutie. Matt Ryan.
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MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 6.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the EAGLES a 6.5 ATS Value Rating (Above Average) this season.
The Eagles are going to have a punishing offense. Ideally they will fnd some depth behind RB AJ Dillon because it will be tempting to give him the ball 45 times a game. QB Anthony Brown should develop nicely behind a great offensive line. If the defense can somehow fnd a way to be close to “special” this team could really do some damage. Sadly, we are not sure they can accomplish that feat without former superb DC Don Brown who is beginning his third season in Ann Arbor.
Steve Addazio has had only had one losing season ATS during his time at Chestnut Hill (55% overall vs the point spread). This team feels exactly like one you can expect to have more wins than losses vs Vegas when it’s all said and done.
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CLEMSON
2017 Recap Record – 12-2 ATS – 8-5-1
The Tigers came THIS close to appearing in their third consecutive College Football Championship Game but could not get past mighty ROLL TIDE in the Sugar Bowl (L 24-6). They rolled through the regular season docket without much of a problem other than a hiccup at Syracuse (L 27-24).
The Clemson football program is something to behold. Let’s examine how they shape up for the 2018 season.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Atlantic Division – #1
ACC – #1
Clemson Tigers 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Clemson offense was down a notch last season (#5 ACC) after fnishing 2nd in the conference in 2016. That was to be expected given the departure of star QB
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Deshaun Watson, and all things considered, Kelly Bryant did an admirable job last year (13 passing TDs, 11 rushing TDs). They needed more explosive plays out of the passing game, but it’s hard to have everything particularly when you are in a semi-rebuilding phase. This year the starting QB gig will likely go to Bryant once again but he will defnitely be challenged by highly-regarded true freshman Trevor Lawrence. Reliable WR Hunter Renfrow returns (60 receptions LY) and Tee Higgins has explosive potential (20.2 YPC LY). The jury is still out in terms of fnding a true game-breaking #1 wideout.
The rushing attack will be excellent. Travis Etienne and Tavien Feaster combined for over 1,400 yards and 20 (!) TDs on the ground in 2017 and should prove to be a phenomenal 1-2 punch. The offensive line is a good shape with 3/5 starters returning including all-conference players at C and LT. We project the Tigers to exceed their PPG output from last season (33.3) and approach the level of 2016 (39.2). Our supercomputer complex projects 37.7 PPG.
DEFENSE
It’s not an exaggeration to suggest that the Tigers might have the best DL (on paper) heading into a season this century. All four starters return to a line that was ruthless last year bagging 46 sacks (T1 FBS – Ohio St) and allowing a mere 115 YPG on the ground (#1 ACC). Without going through all the numerous accolades for the DL stars, let’s just say that all four men look like legit NFL players. They lose last season’s leading tackler to the NFL (LB Dorian O’Daniel – Chiefs) but return a pair of talented starters to the LB unit. Clemson did a great job in pass defense last year (16-14 TD to INT ratio, 52.5% completions) and appear talented once again in the back end despite returning just a pair of starters.
Clemson allowed just 13.6 (!) PPG last season (#2 FBS, ROLL TIDE) and we forecast a similar performance in 2018.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Clemson will be happy to see a healthy PK Greg Huegel back for duty (2nd Team ACC in 2016) but they will miss the PR ability of Ray-Ray McCloud (12.1, TD LY).
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Schedule Analysis
Overall – It’s not “easy” but it’s certainly something they can handle. There is no Auburn on the docket but they do have to make a road trip to College Station to face Texas A&M. They also avoid Miami from the Coastal Division and only have fve road games.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Nothing to note. Not crazy about the Georgia Southern game (Texas A&M / Georgia Tech sandwich) but a run-based offense facing the Clemson DL smells like trouble. Even if the spread is over 5-TDs we would probably just avoid the game altogether.
Season Win Total
Over 11 -120
Under 11 +100
MEGALOCKS says:
Do not adjust your sets. We lean to the under only because we believe it’s better value to take a shot at them losing two games vs going undefeated. One loss gets you a push. Keep in mind that Syracuse got the Tigers last year and Pitt did it the year before (and NC State ALMOST did it).
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Clemson players rub Howard’s Rock upon entering Memorial Stadium. The rock was given to head coach Frank Howard in the early 1960s by one Samuel C. Jones as a reference to “Death Valley”, the name that Howard used to refer to the stadium. The rock was originally located in Death Valley, California. Amaze your SMOKESHOW COCKTAIL WAITRESS with that gem.
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MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 5.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the TIGERS a 5.5 ATS Value Rating (Slightly Above Average) this season.
It doesn’t take a genius to surmise that the Tigers are locked and LOADED for another run at a National Championship. The defense will be MUST SEE TV. The offense should be a bit more explosive this season and that is a scary thought. They are clearly the class of the ACC “on paper”.
We are yuuuuge fans of HC Dabo Swinney and have been for a long time. He not only wins games but does a fne job vs the point spread (72-61-2 L10 years; 54.1%) considering they are almost always a favorite that demands public attention. The last losing campaign vs Vegas was back in 2014 (6-7 ATS).
It won’t make a lot of sense to be FADE THE PUBLIC GUY and bet against Clemson on a regular basis because their defense is just too fat out nasty. Having said that, you should probably use some caution backing them on a regular basis because the spreads will almost certainly be infated and there is no reason to think they will have the regular killer instinct you need to cover a lot of massive lines.
Pick your spots and enjoy the ride.
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FLORIDA ST
2017 Recap Record – 7-6 ATS – 4-7-2
The record wasn’t great but we might consider this the PURGE of 2017. It didn’t help that they lost their starting QB during their frst game, and there were plenty of more injuries and discontent to deal with during the season. It’s never good to lose six games when you are Florida St, but they lost to a bunch of good teams (ROLL TIDE, NC State, Miami, Louisville, BC, Clemson) and refused to pack things up at the end of the season. They won their fnal three regular season games and subsequently dusted Southern Miss in the Independence Bowl.
The JIMBO ERA gives way to new HC Willie Taggart. Let’s try and fgure out what kind of upside the Noles have in 2018.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Atlantic Division – #2
ACC – #2
Florida St Seminoles 2018 Outlook
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OFFENSE
Don’t look now but the Seminoles have a pair of experienced signal-callers to decide between this year. James Blackman did a decent job for a true freshman last season throwing for over 2,200 yards and 19 TDs. Deondre Francois had a really nice 2016 campaign (3,350, 20-7 TD to INT) and is defnitely the leader in the clubhouse to start the season under center. It would be helpful for the passing attack if a true #1 threat could emerge, in particular since they lost a pair of targets to the NFL (TE Ryan Izzo, WR Arden Tate). The run game should be fantastic with Cam Akers (1,024, 7 TD LY) and Jacques Patrick (748, 7 TD) back for duty. The OL looks to be in the best shape in a while as they bring back 4/5 starters and a lot of size. If they can allow less than 30 sacks (32, 36 L2Y) and pave the way for fve yards per carry, the Seminoles are going to be a LOT better on offense. That seems like a real possibility.
DEFENSE
The Seminoles have lost a lot of experience as they only return four starters to the stop unit and will be without six (!) of their top seven tacklers from last year’s defense. Those departures include a pair of NFL draft picks on the DL as well as 1st Team AA S Derwin James (1st round NFL pick – Chargers). The DL will be fne with a ton of size on the inside and the return of DE Brian Burns (13.5 TFL, 5 QBH LY). The back seven only brings back a pair of starters and they are going to have to rely on the raw talent they displayed when making the Noles’ roster. That’s what it boils down to. Have the more veteran players hold their own and hope for a couple of young stars to emerge. That’s not impossible when talking about Florida St.
Last season the Seminoles allowed 21.2 PPG (#5 ACC) and we project a similar fnish in 2018.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Yes, guy.
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The Noles special teams unit features excellent PK Ricky Aguayo who was 18/21 on FG attempts last season and a fne P in Logan Tyler. The return units were good last season and everyone is back in 2018.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – Ya, it’s nasty. The ACC docket is tough and they draw Notre Dame and Florida in non-conference action. Even the BURGEONING JUGGERNAUT Northern Illinois Huskies may have something to say.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – November 17 (Boston College). This game pops up after three monster games (Clemson, at NC State, at Notre Dame) and before a date with CHOMP CHOMP to fnish the regular season.
Season Win Total
Over 8 -120
Under 8 +100
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean to the over. Despite the nasty schedule it seems very unlikely that a team this loaded with talent can fnish another season with fewer than eight victories.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
It’s hard to match Florida St’s long-term track record when it comes to bowl games. They have made 36 (!) consecutive trips to bowl season and have an all- time bowl record of 28-16-2.
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MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 7.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the SEMINOLES a 7.0 ATS Value Rating (Good) this season.
We missed the mark on Florida St last season, but of course, anything can happen when you lose your starting QB and suffer numerous other injuries. Nonetheless, “oops”.
These guys will be much better on offense this year and heaven help ACC defenses (maybe not Clemson, amirite?) if they uncover a SURPRISE PACKAGE at WR. The defense is a bit of a concern given all the new faces. Hopefully they can hold serve at around 20 PPG allowed over the course of the year. The solid special teams is an added bonus.
New HC Willie Taggart has a less-than-stellar win-loss record of 47-50. The good news for point spread backers is that he has recorded a very sweet mark vs Vegas (59-38-1) which is 60.8% for you math fans out there. Whoa, Nellie. Can that translate to Florida St? It’s anyone’s guess, but we like his odds considering what he has to work with in 2018.
Popping them on the watch list to start the season.
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LOUISVILLE
2017 Recap Record – 8-5 ATS – 5-8
9-8-9-8. Those are the win totals during Bobby Petrino’s second tour of duty with the Cardinals. There were higher hopes but they didn’t come up big in their most important games. They did manage to pull a mild upset on the road at Florida St but really did nothing else of note. They fnished the regular season by beating patsies Virginia, Syracuse, and Kentucky but lost the season fnale vs Mississippi St in the Taxslayer Bowl (L 31-27).
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Atlantic Division – #4
ACC – Tied #7
Louisville Cardinals 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
Here we go.
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Can the Cardinals possibly come close to the offensive production that superstar QB Lamar Jackson provided over the past two seasons? The Cardinals were excellent last year on offense ranking #15 in the FBS in both rushing and passing offense (#3 overall). This year the QB reins will go to sophomore Jawon Pass who has spent two years in the system and did well enough in limited action last year. Pass will be happy to know that he has an excellent receiving group to throw to including 1st Team ACC senior Jaylen Smith who almost registered a 1,000-yard season (980) in just 10 starts.
The big question is the loss of 29 (!) rushing TDs from last season’s three leading rushers including Jackson. It’s a complete reload in the group and it remains to be seen what kind of talent is on hand at RB. The offensive line looks promising with four starters returning to the mix. We worry about the pass protection as the Cardinals have allowed 33,47,44, and 41 sacks over the past four years. Hopefully 2017 was a step in the right direction.
HC Petrino does good work with QBs but it’s hard to see the Cards coming close to last season’s output of 38.1 PPG (#1 ACC). We project a decrease of about 7 PPG this year due to the uncertainty at RB and QB.
DEFENSE
The Cards allowed 340 YPG on defense for the frst time since 2012 (388 LY). They have had a pretty good under-the-radar run from a defensive standpoint recently but will need to perform with just four returning starters. They only return one of their top fve tacklers from the 2017 stop unit, but at least that man is LB Dorian Etheridge who led the team in tackles last year as a true freshman. DE Jonathan Greenard is a handy player to have around as he totaled 15.5 TFL and 8 QBH last season. The secondary may be better than expected even considering the loss of a frst round NFL DC at CB (Jaire Alexander – Packers) as three transfers were added to the back end of the defense.
Louisville allowed 388 YPG on defense last year (#10 ACC) and we foresee a similar level of performance this year unless they can fnd a way to get more PENETRATION. Amaze your UNUSUALLY CRUEL DENTAL HYGIENIST
81 2018 SEASON PREVIEW with this gem. Louisville’s sack total has decreased for four consecutive seasons (43, 41, 38, 30, 27).
SPECIAL TEAMS
The kicking combination of PK Blanton Creque (17/20 FG LY) and P Mason King (39.9 net LY) are solid weapons. The return units appear to be average.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – Anyone that has to face ROLL TIDE and CLEMSON in the same season? Sorry about your luck. The good news? They only have four true road games and play very well at home under the tutelage of Petrino.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Syracuse (November 9). This contest pops up between dates with Clemson and NC State and the Orange have been known to SHOCK the WORLD at home on occasion.
Season Win Total
Over 7 +110
Under 7 -130
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean to the under. Petrino is an excellent coach but to get to eight wins they would need to go 8-2 in contests vs opponents not named ROLL TIDE or Clemson.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Bobby Petrino has an excellent 40-7 (!) record at Cardinal Stadium.
NOT SO FAST! Our pal Lee Corso coached the Cardinals to a record of 28-11-3 while head coach at Louisville.
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MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 3.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the CARDINALS a 3.0 ATS Value Rating (Below Average) this season.
This feels like a year to retool, but then again, it’s hard to bet against Mr Petrino. The key will be getting above-average production at QB and fnding at least one RB capable of doing some work. The defense might be better than expected but it’s hard to forecast that right now.
The Cards are 25-27 ATS over the past four years under Petrino’s watch. They seem to be facing a strong headwind in terms of exceeding market expectations in 2018. We advise the use of caution to start the year.
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NC STATE
2017 Recap Record – 9-4 ATS – 5-8
It was a frustrating start to the campaign as the Pack lost a close game at South Carolina in which they outgained their opponent by an astounding 504-246 margin (L 35-28). They get full marks for rebounding nicely and rattling off six straight wins before getting smoked at Notre Dame. The loss to Clemson the next week put the nail in the coffn of their ACC title hopes, but they kept battling once again with a victory over arch-rival North Carolina and a Sun Bowl whoooooping of Arizona St (52-31).
What should NC State fans expect in 2018?
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Atlantic Division – Tied #5
ACC – Tied #10
NC State Wolfpack 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
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The Pack boast one of the best signal-callers in the conference in senior Ryan Finley who threw for over 3,500 yards last season whilst completing 65% of his passes and throwing just 6 INTs in 479 (!) attempts. Finley gets to go to work with one of the best receiving groups in the ACC. The top-three returning WRs combined for over 2,300 yards and 11 TDs in 2017. That trio includes 1st Team ACC honoree Kelvin Harmon who had a 1,000-yard campaign. The Wolfpack will be without 1,000-yard RB Nykeim Hines who is off to the NFL (Colts) as well as their excellent SLASH RB/WR Jaylen Samuels (400+ yards rushing, 70+ receptions in 2017). They should be able to cobble together a decent running back group but it remains to be seen if there is a true #1 banger on board. The offensive line returns three starters but will be without AA RT Will Richardson who is off to the NFL (Jags).
NC State scored an impressive 32.2 PPG last year (#4 ACC) and we forecast a similar placing this year and some potentially big numbers from Finley.
DEFENSE
RUH ROH.
It seems impossible, but the Wolfpack are INDEED going to be without FOUR NFL draft picks on the DL this year. NC State can thank the Broncos, Giants, Chargers, and 49ers for the unfortunate resource depletion. It’s really diffcult to know what to expect from DL and LB groups that do return a single starter.
The secondary should be fne with 3/4 returning starters including a pair of experienced safeties, but how well will the back end of the defense hold up without the monsters up front? The Wolfpack has allowed 25.2, 22.8, 25.8 and 27.0 PPG over the past four years. Our ACC SUPERCOMPUTER MODELS call for them to allow 30 PPG for the frst time since 2013 (30.2).
SPECIAL TEAMS
Can a dedicated MEGALOCKS reader please send NC State a decent FG kicker. We will pay the shipping costs. Thanks in advance. The Pack are also in need of
85 2018 SEASON PREVIEW new return men after the departure of the dangerous duo of Nyheim Hines and Jaylen Samuels. There could be trouble on the horizon with this unit, yo.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – It’s favorable in our estimation. The non-conference docket is tricky but not impossible. James Madison and Georgia St should be wins (?) but the home date with West Virginia and road game with WE ARE MARSHALL are going to be tough. They avoid Miami out of the Coastal Division and play just one (!!) road game before October 20. Yup, that’s an actual fact.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at WE ARE MARSHALL (September 22). This match-up pops up after a date with the powerful West Virginia Mountaineers and before conference play starts (Virginia). Most importantly, Marshall should be GEEKED UP to try and take down an ACC foe.
Season Win Total
Over 7.5 +110
Under 7.5 -130
MEGALOCKS says:
Neutral view for now. The defense might be sketchy but the schedule isn’t bad and they have one of the best QBs in the conference.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
North Carolina State is a founding member of the ACC and have won seven conference championships, the last of which came in 1979. Our pal LOU HOLTZ led the Pack to one of those titles back in 1973.
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MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 3.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the WOLFPACK a 3.5 ATS Value Rating (Below Average) this season.
NC State inhabits a nasty ACC Atlantic Division that demands you bring your “A” game every week. They should be able to score on just about everyone but the defense has us concerned. The drop-off in special teams play may be signifcant. HC Dave Doeren has done a decent job with the Pack so far (34-30) but has not managed to bag a 10-win season as of yet. This does not seem like the time he gets it done.
DOUBLE D is 31-32-1 vs the point spread during his tenure in Raleigh. This has the makings of a team that will play in some exciting games but fail to meet market expectations more often than not. Tread lightly when building your weekly cards.
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SYRACUSE
2017 Recap Record – 4-8 ATS – 6-6
The Orange recorded their second consecutive four-win season under the tutelage of HC Dino Babers and have not had a winning record since the magical 2013 season (7-6). They did manage to SHOCK the WORLD with a win over the mighty Clemson Tigers and were very competitive in losses to Miami and Florida St. They were tripped up again by injuries. Maybe THIS is the year it all comes together?
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Atlantic Division – #7
ACC – #13
Syracuse Orange 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
Senior QB Eric Dungey gets one more kick at the cat and hopefully he can stay healthy for the entire campaign. Dungey is a dangerous dual-threat QB and the
88 MEGALOCKS kind of leader that can carry the team to a bowl game (14 passing TDs, 9 rushing TDs in 9 starts LY). Dungey will miss a pair of excellent WRs that combined for over 2,200 yards receiving and an amazing 194 (!) catches in 2017. One of those men is the program’s all-time receiving leader Steve Ishmael who poked ahead of some dude named Marvin Harrison.
Dungey was the team’s leading rusher last year and it would help the offense (and his long-term health) if the RB group could do more of the damage on the ground. True, it’s a pass-happy offense, but their top-3 RBs return to the mix this season and that will help the offense move the chains. The offensive line should be one of their best in recent seasons (4/5 returning starters).
The Orange passing game is still going to click and we foresee the Orange have their best offensive output since 2012 when they averaged 30.0 PPG (LY 27.4).
DEFENSE
The Orange made fne progress last season allowing 32.2 PPG after yielding 38.6 in 2016. There are six starters returning to the stop unit and, aside from staying healthy this year, there are a number of things that need to improve. The Orange have ranked DEAD LAST in the ACC in sacks for two straight seasons (16,16). They need to fnd a way to get more PENETRATION. The defensive line brings back three starters but the LB unit is undergoing a total reload. The Cuse also needs to fnd a way to pick off more than FOUR passes (last ACC LY). Three returning starters at the back-end of the defense has to help. Amirite?
We forecast similar defensive performance in 2018 with a bit of upside potential.
SPECIAL TEAMS
The Orange bring back excellent P Sterling Hofrichter (41.3 net LY) and PR/KR Sean Riley who did a good job on returns last season. They will however need to break a new PK and will miss the reliability of Cole Murphy on feld goal attempts (20/27 LY).
Schedule Analysis
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Overall – It’s not bad at all. The non-conference schedule is manageable (at Western Michigan, Wagner, Connecticut) and they only have fve true road games.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Connecticut (September 22). This is a Florida St / Clemson sandwich game and we will probably avoid taking the Orange here if they are laying a big number.
Season Win Total
Over 5.5 +100
Under 5.5 -120
MEGALOCKS says:
Strong lean to the under. They are capable of making a bowl game but the defense is still a concern and they have an injury-prone QB. The November docket is going to be tough to navigate.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Despite carrying the name of CARRIER (an HVAC manufacturer) there is no air conditioning in the dome.
Note – It may be installed in 2022 according to our SYRACUSE BUILDING IMPROVEMENT INSIDERS
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 4.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the ORANGE a 4.0 ATS Value Rating (Below Average) this season.
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We had higher expectations for Syracuse last season but the lack of depth killed them down the stretch when the injury bug went FREAKY FREAKY ALL NIGHT LONG. This season the offense should be really good and be able to move the ball consistently on all but the best defenses on their schedule. A healthy Eric Dungey is key although they do have some depth behind him now. It’s just hard to depend on that defense which seems a year away from being the caliber needed to keep Syracuse competitive in a tough division.
We suggest using caution and picking the best spots possible when backing the Orange against the spread.
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WAKE FOREST
2017 Recap Record – 8-5 ATS – 8-3-2
Wake Forest started out on SUPAH HOT FIRE taking down their frst four opponents including scrappy Boston College and Appalachian St squads before hitting the skids in ACC action. They fnished strong winning three of their fnal four games culminating in an exciting Belk Bowl win over Texas A&M (55-52) (!).
HC Dave Clawson is doing good things in Winston-Salem bagging 15 wins over the past two campaigns (2-0 in bowl games). Is there more excitement in store for Wake fans this season?
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Atlantic Division – Tied #5
ACC – Tied #10
Wake Forest Demon Deacons 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
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QB John Wolford was a very underrated signal-caller and leaves the program after completing a wonderful year in which he threw for over 3,100 yards and 29 TDs, while throwing just 6 picks and rushing for 10 TDs on the ground in his spare time. The Deacons’ offense was really effcient in 2017 and they were 2nd in the ACC in scoring offense in 2017 (35.3 PPG).
Kendall Hinton has shown fashes of being a good QB but must sadly miss the frst three games of the season due to suspension (violation of team rules). HC Clawson will most certainly have someone ready to go and we will monitor the developments during fall camp. They will lean on the ground game a lot this year with an excellent and experienced offensive line returning for duty (5/5 returning starters) and a nice group of RBs led by last year’s leading rusher Matt Colburn (904, 7 TD). The Deacons boast a pair of very good wideouts in Scotty Washington (711, 3 TD LY) and emerging star Greg Dortch who blew up for 722 yards and 9 (!) TDs before getting injured just past the midway point of last season.
It’s hard to project Wake Forest being better on offense this season given the departure of Wolford, but we do think they will fnish in the top-half of the ACC total offense rankings.
DEFENSE
The Demon Deacons allowed 457 (!) yards per game on defense and that was the frst time they had allowed more than 400 YPG since 2012 (433). There are six starters coming back for duty and they have some nice pieces to work with in 2018. The DL has some decent size including senior DT Zeek Rodney but they will have to fnd a way to do better vs the run (#88 FBS LY). The secondary appears strong even without the presence of DB Jesse Bates who is off to the NFL (Bengals). FS Cameron Glenn led the team in tackles and CB Essang Bassey had an impressive 16 PBU and 3 INT last season.
We forecast the Deacons to have similar results to 2014 when they allowed 26.4 PPG (LY 28.3).
SPECIAL TEAMS
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The Deacons will be without their solid PK Mike Weaver but have continuity at P and a dangerous Greg Dortch returning punts and kickoffs.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – They open at Tulane and then have fve (!) consecutive home games before their bye week. They will need to take care of biznezz early on because they have some tough road games in October and November.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Boston College (September 13). That run defense better get ready for the HOUSE OF PAIN which is sure to arrive in the form of RB AJ Dillon. A date with Notre Dame is on deck.
Season Win Total
Over 6.5 -110
Under 6.5 -120
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean to the under as we approach the crazy moments before press time. This feels like a fve-to-seven win team. The QB situation has us a bit concerned and there are some tough road games to navigate. Oh, and they better not sleep on the crafty Tulane Green Wave in August.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Wake Forest is the 6th-smallest school in the FBS in terms of undergraduate enrollment and is the smallest school playing in a Power-5 conference.
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MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 5.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the DEMON DEACONS a 5.5 ATS Value Rating (Slightly Above Average) this season.
The Deacons have a sound rushing attack that they can use to keep things under control until they fnd out exactly what the QB situation looks like. The ultimate success of the season depends on a defense that must improve a bit for Wake Forest to go bowling.
From a point-spread perspective, HC Dave Clawson has rattled off back-to- back impressive seasons vs Vegas (16-8-2 L2Y; 66.7%) and has not had a losing record vs the number since his arrival in Winston-Salem in 2014. In fact, his overall mark vs the point-spread is an excellent 65-48-2 (57.5%), dating back to 2008. We have no choice but to give him the beneft of the doubt and presume there will be more than one occasion in which to add the Deacons to our betting cards.
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ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE (ACC)
COASTAL DIVISION
96 MEGALOCKS
DUKE
2017 Recap Record – 7-6 ATS – 7-5-1
“WE’RE GOING STREAKING !”
Frank “The Tank” Ricard
The Blue Devils were a puzzle wrapped up inside an enigma. They won their frst four games, proceeded to lose the next six, and then rattled off three victories to end the campaign. The Quick Lane Bowl victory over Northern Illinois (36-14) capped a true roller-coaster season.
What can we expect in 2018? Let’s dig in.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Coastal Division – #2
ACC – #5
Duke Blue Devils 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
97 2018 SEASON PREVIEW
The Blue Devils managed just 26.5 PPG last year (#10 ACC) and once again failed to crack the 30 PPG mark after doing it four times in a row (2012-2015). QB Daniel Jones did not take the step forward that was hoped, and while he battled through injuries, the Dukies need him to play a lot better if they are to challenge in the division (14-11 TD to INT ratio LY). Jones has a nice compliment of weapons to throw to as his top-three WR from last year’s squad all return to the mix as well as TE Daniel Helm. The offensive line will need to do a better job in pass protection (29 sacks allowed LY) and only return a pair of starters this season. The RB group loses #1 Shaun Wilson (818, 6 TD LY) but Brittain Brown was a close 2nd in rushing yards last year (701, 7 TD). Sophomore Deon Jackson might end up being a SURPRISE PACKAGE.
As with many teams, the effciency and effectiveness of the offense will depend on the offensive line gelling and doing an above-average job. It’s possible, but we are a bit skeptical. Let’s call for mildly improved production in 2018.
DEFENSE
Yes, guy.
Duke played rock solid defense (#4 ACC, #21 FBS) in 2017 and bring back eight starters to the mix this year. The DL features three returning starters with nice size on the inside and talent on the outside. The LB group is led by leading tackler and AA Joe Giles-Harris who was a STATS MACHINE last season (125 tackles, 16 TFL, 9 QBH). The secondary is led by 1st Team ACC CB Mark Gilbert who had 6 INTs last year and an impressive 15 (!) PBUs.
Bottom line? The defense has some serious talent and is going to be one of the top four or fve stop units in the ACC. Our only concern is the departure of ace DC Jim Knowles who is off to Oklahoma St.
SPECIAL TEAMS
The return units were not stellar last season (#24 KOR, #96 PR) and could use some additional spice. Solid PK Austin Parker is back after connecting on 17/21 FG attempts in 2017.
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Schedule Analysis
Overall – It’s sneaky tough. They draw Clemson from the Atlantic Division and their frst three non-conference tilts are not easy (Army, at Northwestern, at Baylor).
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Clemson (November 17). This will be the Dukies 4th road game in six weeks and it’s Clemson’s fnal ACC tilt. That means Duke will get the Tigers’ full attention.
Season Win Total
Over 6 -125
Under 6 +105
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean to the over. Things will look good if they can start the season at 3-1 or better. Then again, they proved they could lose six games in a row last season like it was nothing. It’s just hard to see this team not making a bowl game.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
The Duke Blue Devils were known as the Trinity Blue and White when they frst took the feld in 1888.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 7.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the BLUE DEVILS a 7.5 ATS Value Rating (Very Good) this season.
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Last season we SHOCKED the WORLD when we correctly pegged Duke to be a team likely to have success vs the point spread………Duke has been sliding the past couple of seasons from a 10-win campaign in 2013 down to a 4-8 record last year. The funny thing ? Duke has a WHOPPING 64.7% success rate against the point spread over that time horizon (33-18-1). Normally, you could argue regression is coming, but when it comes to under- the-radar football programs like Duke, they just do not get the respect they deserve.
What about 2018?
This looks like a well-rounded team with a stingy defense. The schedule is not kind, but the Blue Devils have the look of a money-maker considering HC Cutcliffe’s record vs Vegas. Since 2008 he is an eye-popping 70-49-4 (58.8%) against the number. DEGENERATE NATION does not make it a habit of putting Duke on their weekly cards and value cannot help but percolate to the surface on occasion.
They get on the watch list to start the season.
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GEORGIA TECH
2017 Recap Record – 5-6 ATS – 7-3-1
The Jackets missed out on the post-season for the second time in three years as they lost four of their fnal fve games. Sure, you can’t have expected them to beat Clemson or Georgia, but Virginia and Duke were right in their WHEELHOUSE and they could not convert. They had a couple of painfully close calls starting in week one when they somehow lost in 2-OT after rolling up 655 (!) yards of offense. Later in the season they had YOUR Miami Hurricanes dead to rights but lost 25-24 after a clutch 4th down conversion.
Surely things will get back to normal this season. Right?
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Coastal Division – Tied #4
ACC – Tied #7
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
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The Yellow Jackets rolled up 300+ yards rushing per contest for the frst time since the 11-win season in 2014. The bad news? The passing game was atrocious and they could only scrape together 84 passing yards per game (#128 FBS) whilst completing just 36% of their attempts (#129 FBS). Yes, we realize that this is a heavy run-based offense, but they have been most successful when being able to connect on a few big pass plays every game to keep teams honest. Senior QB TaQuon Marshall rushed for over 1,100 yards last season and 17 TDs (!) and just needs to improve his accuracy a bit to really make the offense hum. The RB group is loaded and are going to be a handful for their opponents. KirVonte Benson rushed over 1,000 yards in 2017 and there a couple of home-run hitters in the group. The offensive line returns three starters to a group that did a good job last season.
Georgia Tech hasn’t topped 30 PPG since 2014 (28.1 LY) and we see them easily blowing past that benchmark in 2018.
DEFENSE
The defense was sneaky good last year fnishing #33 in the FBS in total defense (354 YPG). This year they only return fve starters to the stop unit but the DL has every starter back and last year’s leading tackler LB Victor Alexander is back in the fold. There are two big concerns. We worry about a secondary that is in complete reload mode (no returning starters) and an overall lack of PENETRATION. They have not recorded 20 or more sacks since 2014 (!) when they bagged, wait for it, 20.
There is reason for optimism as Georgia Tech has secured the services of former Appalachian St DC Nate Woody who did excellent work with the Mountaineers.
SPECIAL TEAMS
The group was pretty much average across the board last year but returns everyone in 2018. Their best weapon appears to be P Pressley Harvin who had a fne 39.7 net last year as a freshman.
Schedule Analysis
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Overall – It’s tough, but not impossible. They draw Clemson and fnish with Georgia. That’s not cool. All other ten games are winnable including a road test at Virginia Tech and home game vs Miami.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Virginia (November 17). This is a classic Miami / Georgia sandwich situation and Cavaliers’ HC Bronco Mendenhall knows a thing or two about how to defend the option.
Season Win Total
Over 6 -110
Under 6 -110
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean to the over. There are some tough games to deal with but it doesn’t seem like a stretch to see them scrap together seven wins.
MEGAmazing Minutia
MEGA moments in history…………
John Heisman (yes, THAT Heisman) was a coaching legend at Georgia Tech in the early 1900s. It’s hard to forget the 222-0 drubbing of Cumberland in 1916 in which every Georgia Tech frst down was achieved via TD. Cumberland fnished with ZERO frst downs.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 7.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the YELLOW JACKETS a 7.0 ATS Value Rating (Good) this season.
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Interviewer – “What’s your prediction for the fght?”
Clubber Lang – “My prediction?”
Interviewer – “Yes, your prediction”
Clubber Lang – “Pain.”
Sometimes those theatrical gems from Rocky 3 can give you a good idea of what to expect when the Yellow Jackets play teams with weak run defenses. The Jackets should be able to rip teams apart with the rushing attack and just need to fgure out how to hit wide open receivers when they choose to pass. We like the addition of DC Nate Woody and think that Georgia Tech can be a money-maker if the defense can just be “average” during the course of the season.
HC Paul Johnson has only had three losing seasons vs the point spread in the past 10 years. While it is true that they fnished up last season with a 7-3- 1 mark vs Vegas, REGRESSION TO THE MEAN GUY is sadly mistaken if he thinks it’s a mathematical certainty that will be unable to make money in 2018. We say put them on the watch list to start the season.
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MIAMI FLA
2017 Recap Record – 10-3 ATS – 5-8
Yes, guy.
Ok, so it was a baby step, but Miami FINALLY got to the ACC Championship Game. Clemson blew them to bits but HC Mark Richt is off to a nice start in Miami (19-7 record over two seasons). The Hurricanes got on a big-time roll and started the season with 10 (!) consecutive wins that included victories over Florida St, Virginia Tech and Notre Dame. The bubble was burst on the road at Pitt (L 24-14) and they dropped their fnal three games including the Orange Bowl.
It’s time to fnd out if Miami has what it takes to compete for an ACC title this year.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Coastal Division – #1
ACC – #3
Miami Hurricanes 2018 Outlook
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OFFENSE
QB Malik Rozier can be frustrating at times (54%, 14 INT LY) but he is defnitely talented enough to lead the Canes to another division title. Rozier threw for over 3,000 yards last season and 26 TDs whilst rushing for another 468 and 5 TDs. When Rozier chooses to MATRICULATE in the passing game he will have a number of talented targets to look for including star WR Ahmmon Richards who missed time due to injury last year. The Canes will miss underrated WR Braxton Berrios and TE Christopher Herndon but do have a lot of raw talent and speed in the WR corps.
Miami needs to get more production out of the rushing attack if they want to become a consistent threat in the ACC (#10 ACC rushing offense LY) as they have not fnished in the top-fve in rushing offense in the conference since 2010 (!) (#3). RB Mark Walton left for the NFL (Bengals) but Travis Homer is a legitimate #1 back (966, 8 TD LY) and highly-regarded freshman Lorenzo Lingard could be a SURPRISE PACKAGE on offense. The offensive line is a bit of a concern as they return just three starters and allowed 29 sacks last season.
The Hurricanes scored 29.1 PPG LY (#5 ACC) and should be able to cross the 30 PPG barrier this year without a problem. It’s hard to see explosive upside unless one (or more) of the youngsters develop quickly.
DEFENSE
We will spare you the talk about the TURNOVER CHAIN. WE love it, but understand why it may be mildly annoying for folks that do not cheer for the Canes. Miami forced 31 (!) turnovers (#3 FBS) and that was a major contributor to the WHITE HOT start they got off to in 2017. They may not bag 31 this year but good coaching + great athletes = forced turnovers on most occasions (fun with math). This year they return seven starters including a loaded LB corps and top-notch secondary that includes a pair of all-conference performers (CB Michael Jackson, Jaquan Johnson). The Canes got excellent PENETRATION last year (44 sacks, #4 FBS) but lose a lot of that production and only return one starter on the DL.
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The defense will be one of the best in the ACC and borderline special if they can get better-than-anticipated play from the DL.
SPECIAL TEAMS
This isn’t your daddy’s Miami special teams group. It looks a bit average on paper. Ace PK Michael Badgley departs as does excellent PR Braxton Berrios.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – It seems that Miami may have dodged a bullet, yo. They have games with LSU and Toledo in out-of-conference action but both programs appear to be in a bit of a reload phase. Further, the Canes are in the easier side of the ACC and they avoid Clemson on the regular season docket.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Virginia Tech (November 17). This will be the Canes 3rd roadie in four weeks and Blacksburg is one of the toughest road tests in college football. It will also be the week after they get chop-blocked for an entire afternoon playing Georgia Tech.
Season Win Total
Over 9.5 +100
Under 9.5 -120
MEGALOCKS says:
Strong lean to the over. Ya, we are biased, but if they get past LSU in week one it seems highly-likely they will get to ten wins.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Miami is (+34) in turnover margin over the past three seasons.
The Canes are below-.500 in bowl games (19-20).
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MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 6.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the HURRICANES a 6.0 ATS Value Rating (Above Average) this season.
Don’t hate me because I’m beautiful.
Those are words of wisdom. You may not like the Canes, but it appears they are going to be really good for the foreseeable future. They are not at the level of ROLL TIDE, Ohio St, Clemson, or Georgia as of yet, but they are defnitely in the next group down. What should we expect in 2018?
They certainly appear to be the class of the division. If the raw talent can develop quickly it’s not out of the realm of possibility they could be playing Clemson (as big underdogs) with a chance to make the college football playoff.
Miami will be a popular team with DEGENERATE NATION but we still feel they can cash more often than not vs the point spread.
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NORTH CAROLINA
2017 Recap Record – 3-9 ATS – 5-7
Yikes.
The Tar Heels bumbled and stumbled their way to a three-win season just two years removed from a trip to the ACC Championship Game. They were riddled by injuries but still only managed victories over Old Dominion, Pitt, and something called Western Carolina.
Despite the 2017 DEBACLE, HC Larry Fedora still has a fne 43-34 record at Chapel Hill and there is reason to believe they will a much improved squad in 2018.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Coastal Division – Tied #4
ACC – Tied #7
North Carolina Tar Heels 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
109 2018 SEASON PREVIEW
Last season the Tar Heels were LAMBASTED with attrition and injuries but they should be much more well equipped to handle the ACC schedule this year. They have two capable QBs (Chazz Surratt, Nathan Elliott) that combined for a decent 18-8 TD to INT ratio in 2017. Thankfully, there will be no more Brandon Harris (1-8 TD to INT) to drive fans crazy. The Heels should have a better passing attack with the improved talent at QB and a healthy WR corps. Leading receiver Anthony Ratliff-Williams had 630 yards receiving last season with 6 TDs (18.0). The RB group is deep and return their top-two from last season’s squad who totaled over 1,100 yards and 12 TDs on the ground (Jordon Brown, Michael Carter). Our primary concern is an OL that returns just one (!) starter and allowed 30 sacks in 2017.
The Heels scored just 26.0 PPG last season (#11 ACC). We can see them hitting the 30 PPG mark this year BUT we need to see above-average play from the OL for that to happen.
DEFENSE
North Carolina allowed over 30 PPG (31.3) for the frst time since 2014 and will need to tighten things up if they plan on making a run in the Coastal division. The most obvious place for improvement is a run defense that has been horrifc the past four seasons allowing over 200+ (!) rushing yards on each occasion. Thankfully, the DL looks to be REALLY good this year and just might be the SURPRISE PACKAGE on defense in the division this year. They return three starters to the line and boast emerging star DE Malik Carney (12 TFL, 5 QBH LY). They bring back leading tackler LB Cole Holcomb and 3/4 returning starters in the secondary. They will miss 2nd round NFL DC CB MJ Stewart (Bucs) and have to fnd a way to increase PENETRATION (23 sacks LY).
SPECIAL TEAMS
Yes, guy.
Things look to be in pretty good shape as they bring back PK Freeman Jones, P Hunter Lent, and KR Anthony Ratliff-Jones (2 TD, 26.3 LY).
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Schedule Analysis
Overall – It’s not that bad. They avoid Clemson and Florida St from the Atlantic Division but have tough (though, winnable) games out-of-conference (at Cal, UCF).
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Nothing of note.
Season Win Total
Over 5 +100
Under 5 -120
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean to the over. The schedule sets up nicely and the defense is better than most people think.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
The nickname “Tar Heels” is steeped in tradition going back well into the 1800s. There are many historical anecdotes (some believable, some not so much) but the basic idea is the connection to the production of naval stores (tar, pitch, rosin, turpentine). Amaze your STALKER EX-GIRLFRIEND with that trivia nugget.
North Carolina has only managed to record 8 (!) INTs over the past two seasons combined.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 6.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the TAR HEELS a 6.5 ATS Value Rating (Above Average) this season.
111 2018 SEASON PREVIEW
Last season we penned the following whilst giving the Tar Heels a 3.0 rating (fnished 5-7 ATS). Are we wizards? Not sure, but it’s a fair question.
There is just way too much uncertainty on offense. HC Fedora does a fne job but we feel that it will be a struggle when you look at some of the defenses they have to face. We believe the defense will be better than expected so all is not lost. It just does not seem fair to ask these guys to have a season that exceeds expectations considering all the new faces. Tread lightly.
What about 2018?
We don’t want to sound like TV Analyst Guy but it truly comes down to the offensive line. The defense will be good enough to keep them in most games but the offense needs to be able to have consistency and balance. That starts with the big boys.
HC Larry Fedora has only had two losing seasons vs Vegas in six years as the boss in North Carolina. We think this team might slide under the radar. They get on the “mildly intrigued list” to start the season.
112 MEGALOCKS
PITTSBURGH
2017 Recap Record – 5-7 ATS – 7-5
The Panthers were accomplishing a whole lot of nothing last season until the fnal two games when they gave Virginia Tech all they could handle (L 20-14) and beat Miami 24-14. Despite the decent fnish it was the frst time since 2007 that they failed to appear in a bowl game.
That was a pretty impressive run. Time to start another one.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Coastal Division – #6
ACC – Tied #10
Pittsburgh Panthers 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
Pitt may have found something special at QB in Kenny Pickett who beat Miami in his frst career start last year. Pickett completed 59% of his passes in limited
113 2018 SEASON PREVIEW action and should be a signal-caller that the Panthers can build around for the next few years. The RB unit is the strength of the offense given its depth and upside potential. Darrin Hall and Qadree Ollison combined for over 1,000 yards and 12 TDs rushing last year, while sophomore AJ Davis may be a SURPRISE PACKAGE by the end of the year. The WR group loses their #1 target Jester Weah (698, 4 TD LY) and it remains to be seen if there is a reliable #1 option in the group. Pitt has a pretty good history with fnding stars at wide receiver so we suppose that there is hope. The offensive line play was poor in 2017 as they allowed 31 sacks and managed just 149 YPG rushing (#12 ACC).
The Panthers had a yuuuuuge drop in production last year from 40.9 PPG to 23.9 (#13 ACC). There is upside with this offense but it’s hard to see them exceeding their PPG mark from 2015 (28.2).
DEFENSE
That blur you see streaking across the TV screen is another big pass play being given up by the Panthers’ secondary. They allowed 254 YPG through the air last year after being riddled for 333 (!) YPG in 2016. It’s hard to imagine things getting much better when the secondary loses a pair of starters to the NFL. The good news is that the entire starting front-7 (!) is back for duty including a really good looking defensive line. In fact, 9/10 top tacklers from last season’s stop unit return to the team and Pitt is well positioned to have its best defense of the Pat Narduzzi era provided that they can stop opposing QBs from putting up big stats on a consistent basis. New DC Randy Bates (LB coach Northwestern) may have an answer and hopefully it involves getting more pressure on the quarterback (23 sacks last season; 43,37 previous two years).
SPECIAL TEAMS
There might be trouble brewing with the departure of their fne punter Ryan Winslow and ace PR Quadree Henderson (2 TD LY) who also returned kickoffs.
Schedule Analysis
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Overall – There is some good news (no Clemson or Florida St from the Atlantic Division) and some bad news (games with Penn St, Notre Dame, UCF in non- conference action). The last three games are pretty tough as they face the Hokies at home before road dates with a JUGGERNAUT Wake Forest team and Miami.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – September 15 (Georgia Tech). This game follows the BIG rivalry game with Penn St and they have to play “fnd the football” on defense for three and a half hours.
Season Win Total
Over 5 -145
Under 5 +115
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean to the over. It won’t be easy but we can easily see this team getting back to a bowl game.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
The frst Backyard Brawl (Pittsburgh vs West Virginia) was played in 1895. MEGALOCKS staff (including SUPERMODEL INTERNS) attended a version in which stars such as Darrelle Revis, Pat White, and Steve Slaton were the main attractions.
Pittsburgh can boast three consecutive appearances in something called the BBVA Compass Bowl (2010-2012).
115 2018 SEASON PREVIEW
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 5.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the PANTHERS a 5.0 ATS Value Rating (Average) this season.
There is defnite reason for optimism. The Panthers appear to have found the answer at QB and HC Narduzzi and friends should be able to cobble together a decent defense with so much experience returning in the front seven. Then again, the stop unit has been a bit disappointing since the former Michigan St defensive genius has taken over as head coach.
The Panthers are 18-20 vs the point spread from 2015-2017 under the watch of Mr Narduzzi. We anticipate some disappointment and positive surprises vs the number this year. Neutral stance for now.
116 MEGALOCKS
VIRGINIA
2017 Recap Record – 6-7 ATS – 6-7
Apparently, it was a mirage.
Virginia got off to a really nice 5-1 start that included a trip to the SMURF TURF in Boise where they SHOCKED the WORLD and laid a 42-23 beating on the Broncos. That is no small feat. They only won a single game the rest of the way and fnished the campaign by getting POLEAXED by Navy in the Military Bowl (L 49-7).
It’s year three of the Bronco Mendenhall era. Are good things on the horizon in 2018?
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Coastal Division – #7
ACC – #14
Virginia Cavaliers 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
117 2018 SEASON PREVIEW
We aren’t sure why Virginia decided to throw over 500 passes last year, but Kurt Benkert did a decent job at QB throwing for over 3,200 yards and 25 TDs. This season it’s a mystery in terms of who wins the starting QB gig. It will be a battle during fall camp between a transfer from Texas (Matthew Merrick), a JC transfer originally from Arizona St (Bryce Perkins), and a true freshman (Brennan Armstrong). Whomever wins the starting role with have a serious target to throw to in WR Olamide Zaccheaus (2nd Team ACC LY), but there is no proven depth elsewhere in the group. Leading rusher Jordan Ellis is back (836, 6 TD LY) and the Cavs seem to have more than a few RBs with potential on the roster. The trick will be getting anything going on the ground with an offensive line that has been awful the past two seasons. They only averaged 3.1 yards per carry last season and allowed 31 sacks. Sure, they threw the ball a lot, but they also yielded 36 sacks in 2016 whilst rushing for just 3.5 yards per attempt.
Virginia has scored 22.5 PPG (#14 ACC LY) in each of the past two seasons. We foresee no reason for signifcant improvement in 2018.
DEFENSE
The Cavs have to fnd a way to improve the run defense. They have yielded 199 and 190 YPG on the ground over the past two campaigns (#13 ACC, #12 ACC). Things don’t look so great this season as they lose leading tackler and AA LB Micah Kiser to the NFL (Rams) as well as AA DB Quin Blanding who had 100+ tackles for four (!) consecutive seasons. They will also be without DE Andrew Brown who is also heading to the NFL (Bengals) after tying for the team lead in TFL (10.5). HC Mendenhall is a good defensive coach but it’s hard to see much improvement from the 28.4 PPG they allowed last season. Our ACC INSIDERS forecast somewhere between 27.5 and 30.5 PPG allowed in 2018.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Things look to be in excellent shape with a strong kicking game (PK Hunter Pearson, 2nd Team ACC P Lester Coleman) and a dangerous KR threat in Joe Reed (2 TD LY).
Schedule Analysis
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Overall – It’s very favorable in our estimation. They have somehow avoided Clemson and Florida St from the Atlantic Division whilst getting the opportunity to play Richmond, Indiana, Ohio, and Liberty in non-conference action. Yes, we realize they lost to the Spiders in 2016, but there is no trip to Boise St or Oregon to worry about this year.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – September 15th (Ohio). The Bobcats are a BURGEONING JUGGERNAUT and this game comes right before ACC play begins. If the Cavaliers are somehow 2-0 heading into this game it may be mighty tempting to take a small taste of some Ohio action. Not saying, just saying.
Season Win Total
Over 5 +125
Under 5 -155
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean to the under. It’s hard to see this team getting to a bowl game BUT the schedule certainly makes it possible.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Former Cavaliers HC George Welsh is 2nd all-time in ACC wins behind Bobby Bowden. In fact, under Welsh’s guidance they were ranked #1 for four weeks in 1990. Amaze your TROPHY WIFE with that trivia bomb.
Virginia last tasted bowl victory in 2005 when they beat Minnesota 34-31 in the Music City Bowl.
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MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 1.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the CAVALIERS a 1.5 ATS Value Rating (Avoid) this season.
Things don’t look pretty. The offense appears to lack a suffcient number of playmakers and QB is a complete mystery. The defense can’t possibly get better after losing their best player at each level of the defense. AMIRITE? We are looking forward to the day when Virginia football has an identity because their fans sure deserve it. Right now we say take a pass on these guys when building your weekly wagering cards.
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VIRGINIA TECH
2017 Recap Record – 9-4 ATS – 6-7
The Hokies had a decent campaign but just could not get over the hump in their important conference games. Clemson, Miami, and Georgia Tech all got them and that meant a trip to the Camping World Bowl (lost to Oklahoma St 30-21). It was still a nine-win season and that makes it 19 wins in two years for HC Justin Fuente. The last time they enjoyed back-to-back 9+ win seasons was back in 2010-2011.
Can Virginia Tech make noise in the division this year?
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Coastal Division – #3
ACC – #6
Virginia Tech Hokies 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
121 2018 SEASON PREVIEW
It does indeed appear that QB Joshua Jackson is good-to-go after facing eligibility questions. That is great news for the offense because Jackson was a legit dual-threat in his freshman season passing for 20 TDs and rushing for another six. The Hokies will have to MATRICULATE in the passing game without their all-time leader in receiving yards Cam Phillips (1st Team ACC LY) and it remains to be seen if they can fnd a true #1 target in the returning WR corps. The same goes for the RB unit (fnding a #1) although a lot of returning backs got some action in 2017. The OL was decent last season and brings back three starters, although they will miss 1st Team ACC honoree Wyatt Teller who is off to the NFL (Bills).
The Hokies were #6 in the ACC in scoring offense last year (28.2) and we project a similar fnish in 2018.
DEFENSE
Wow.
Virginia Tech played phenomenal defense last season allowing a mere 14.8 PPG (#4 FBS). That was the frst time they had allowed less than 20 PPG since the 2013 campaign (19.3). Virginia Tech returns just fve starters to the mix this season and already know they will be without CBs Adonis Alexander and Jeremy Webb. That will put a lot of pressure on the front seven to get to the QB and cause havoc. We are pleased to note that the strength of the defense (the team?) is a DL that brings back three starters including their fne DT Ricky Walker (12.5 TFL, 6 QBH LY). The LB group suffered a huge blow with the graduation of AA LB Tremaine Edmunds to the NFL (#1 DC Steelers) and is lacking in experience overall.
DC Bud Foster is one of the best in the business but it will take some magic to get this group to allow less than 20 PPG.
SPECIAL TEAMS
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There are signifcant losses to deal with including excellent PK Joey Slye and PR Greg Stroman (2 TD LY). They do bring back P Oscar Bradburn who had a fne 39.9 net in 2017.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – It looks fne. They avoid Clemson and appear to have only one scary non-conference game (home to Notre Dame). Added bonus? They only have one (!) road game after October 13 (at Pitt).
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Nothing noted.
Season Win Total
Over 8.5 +125
Under 8.5 -145
MEGALOCKS says:
On the fence as we go to press and will have to take a pass for now. The team has some holes to fll but the schedule is not that diffcult.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
The last time Virginia Tech allowed a higher completion percentage than 50.1% (!!) was back in 2010 (52.2%).
DC Bud Foster enters his 24rd (!) season in that role. HALL OF FAMER.
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MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 3.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the HOKIES a 3.5 ATS Value Rating (Below Average) this season.
There is quite a bit to think about. The offense does not appear to have a ton of explosiveness (on paper) and the defense needs to deal with a lot of attrition. DC Bud Foster is one of the best but he has some work to do. The schedule will certainly help, but it feels like “brand recognition” may result in some infated lines in their favor.
Justin Fuente has a 14-13 mark vs the point spread with the Hokies and will likely have a hard time meeting market expectations for the most part over the course of the season.
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BIG 10
EAST DIVISION
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INDIANA
2017 Recap Record – 5-7 ATS – 6-6
That’s gotta hurt.
Indiana headed into their fnal game of the season vs hated rival Purdue with both teams needing a win to grab a bowl bid. Purdue won the Old Oaken Bucket and Indiana was home for the holidays, fnishing up with a record of 5-7. We had higher hopes for the Hoosiers last season, and looking back, it’s hard to fnd a quality win (Virginia, Georgia Southern, Charleston Southern, Illinois, Rutgers). They played solid defense and had two capable QBs. There were a couple of close calls, and they were defnitely good enough to have made a bowl game. Let’s see if they can GIT ER DONE in 2018.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
East Division – #5
Big 10 – #10
Indiana Hoosiers 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
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The Hoosiers have a couple of good options at QB, and that is more than many teams in the FBS can say. Arizona transfer Brandon Dawkins and Peyton Ramsey will battle for the starting gig over the summer, but we suspect we will see both guys at some point. We expect to see improved production under center this year (2017 – #86 FBS passing effciency).
RB Morgan Ellison is a legit #1 back that should approach 1,000 yards on the ground if he stays healthy. The line returns fve starters and the projected #1 unit has three seniors and two juniors. They need to pave the way for more than 3.5 yards per carry (2017) and do a better job keeping the QB clean (29 sacks allowed LY). They should be in good shape at WR with Luke Timian back in the fold (68 receptions in 2017) and a healthy Nick Westbrook who was a few yards shy of registering a 1,000-yard season in 2016 (season-ending injury LY in week 1).
Our HOOSIER INSIDERS project a mild improvement in offensive production from 26.8 to 29 points per game in 2018.
DEFENSE
Indiana has been really good defensively the past two seasons (#27 LY, #45 – 2016) but face a signifcant reload in 2018 with only three returning starters back for duty. We love the work that Tom Allen has done with the defense since he arrived, but we are skeptical about the talent level and experience (top three tacklers from 2017 are gone) heading into this campaign, at least as compared to the last two Hoosier stop units.
There is only one starter returning in the front seven but they do get back a good pass rusher in Nile Sykes (5 sacks in 2016) who missed last season due to injury. LB Tegray Scales is a yuuuuuge loss (1st team Big 10) and LB Chris Covington was a late-round NFL draft pick (Dallas). The secondary returns a pair of starters, but overall, the Hoosiers need to bag more interceptions (just 5 in 2017).
We believe in Tom Allen, it just seems unlikely that Indiana will be able to maintain the level of the 2017 and 2016 squads on defense.
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SPECIAL TEAMS
The most overlooked loss might be star PK Griffn Oakes who went 16/17 on FGs last season. He will be tough to replace. The good news? Ace punt return man J-Shun Harris II is at 90-100% health as we go to press. He is coming back off his THIRD ACL tear. Harris bagged two PR TDs before injuring himself again in October. Feels like a mixed bag for the Hoosiers. We are defnitely cheering for J-Shun to take at least one to the house!
Schedule Analysis
Overall – The out-of-conference schedule should defnitely help them get off to a good start (FIU, Virginia, Ball St), but as you know, playing in the Big 10 East is fat out nasty. Overall, we like the way the docket sets up for a run at a bowl game. They only play one set of back-to-back roadies.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – BALL ST (September 15). This comes after a Virginia-revenge game and before the start of Big 10 season (Michigan St). It is also an interstate series that usually has the underdog fred up.
Season Win Total
Over 5 -135
Under 5 +105
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean to the over. There are eight winnable games on the docket. Hard to see them going 4-8.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
The last time Indiana won a bowl game was back in 1991 in something called the Copper Bowl.
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Indiana has had just one winning season since 1994 (7-6 record in 2007).
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 5.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the HOOSIERS a 5.0 ATS Value Rating (Average) this season.
This is a killer division but the Hoosiers just might have the MINERALS to bag 6+ wins and get back to bowl season. Our primary concern is with a defense that returns just three starters. They also need to prove to us that they can run the football more effectively (#105 LY).
Indiana has not covered more than 7 (!) games in any season over the past ten years. We have always viewed them as a squad you can get one or two decent plays on per year, but a side that you just can never be too sure about backing vs the spread. Apologies for the fence-sitting, but a wait and see approach seems prudent.
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MARYLAND
2017 Recap Record – 4-8 ATS – 5-7
Not again, yo.
Maryland was stricken with yet another QB injury disaster last season, and that absolutely destroyed any possibility of a successful season. The Fighting TURTLES engineered a road upset at Texas (!) in week one and beat a decent Gophers team on the road just three weeks later to bump their record to 3-1. Unfortunately, they could not keep the momentum going with their top two QBs suffering season-ending injuries, and they fnished up with a record of 4-8.
Can they achieve bowl eligibility in a killer division? Let’s dig in.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
East Division – #6
Big 10 – #12
Maryland Terrapins 2018 Outlook
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OFFENSE
The Terps may want to keep both QBs in an IRON LUNG for safety purposes during the summer. Their top two look really good and dangerous (Kasim Hill, Tyrrell Pigrome) and should be able to lead the Maryland offense with explosiveness and effciency. That is because the rushing attack features a solid #1 option in Ty Johnson who has averaged well over seven (!) yards per carry during his collegiate career, and an offensive line that returns fve starters. Lorenzo Harrison averaged over 7 yards per carry in 2016 and tallied 622 yards in 2017. Overall, the depth at RB is impressive.
If the Terrapins can get anything at all out of the passing attack they will be a handful vs all but the top-notch defenses on their schedule. The receiving group lost star receiver DJ Moore (1,033, 8 TD – 2017) and hope to fnd a gem or two during the course of the campaign. Maryland should easily approach 30 points per game in 2018 (2017 – 24.1) if they can avoid an APOCALYPTIC injury mess under center. New OC Matt Canada has tools in the toolbox. Beware!
DEFENSE
Here is where things get a bit sketchy. Maryland allowed 191 yards per game on the ground (#92 FBS) and 229 through the air last season. They only bagged a paltry 16 sacks and provided no serious resistance for opposing offenses. That my friends, is a recipe for allowing 37 points per contest. The Terps return just fve starters on defense and will miss LB Jermaine Carter who led the team in tackles in three consecutive seasons. We suppose you could say it is a good thing that they only have fve returning starters given their 2017 performance, but we don’t always buy that argument. Good news? They return pass rushing demon Jesse Aniebonam who suffered a season-ending injury in the 2017 opener (2016 – 9 sacks in 6 games) and have a talented secondary which adds Florida St transfer CB Marcus Lewis in 2018. We forecast a TD+ improvement on defense this season (28-30 points per game allowed) and hopefully that can translate into more wins.
SPECIAL TEAMS
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Yikes. Maryland fnished #112 in net punting last season and P Wade Lees is back for more. They need to break in a new PK which is often an adventure. Ty Johnson had a KR TD last season (100 yards) and is always a threat to take one the distance.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – It’s not easy playing in the Big 10 East. When you add Texas to the mix, as well as a potential JUGGERNAUT Temple squad, it stands to reason that they can ill afford to miss any layups. They fnish up with Ohio St and Penn St. Thankfully, Maryland does not have any back-to-back road games.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Temple (September 15). Potential look ahead spot with Big 10 play on deck (Minnesota). Temple will be a handful.
Season Win Total
Over 5 -150
Under 5 +120
MEGALOCKS says:
The line feels about right as we go to press. The schedule looks pretty daunting and it will be a challenge to gain bowl eligibility. They will be much more competitive this season, but fve wins seems like a solid guess.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Maryland has not tasted bowl victory since the 2010 Military Bowl when they spanked East Carolina 51-20.
The Terrapins joined the Big 10 Conference in 2014 after spending over 60 years as a founding member of the ACC.
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MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 6.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the TERRAPINS a 6.5 ATS Value Rating (Above Average) this season.
There is no doubt the Terrapins will have a dangerous offense. We worry about the defense and the schedule that offers few breathers. They have recruited well over the past few seasons and have some talent stocked in the cupboards.
Maryland has gone 10-15 SU during the frst two years of the DJ Durkin era and just 9-16 (36%) against the point spread during that time horizon. We can see them overachieving this season vs expectations as long as they avoid an injury DEBACLE at QB. We will put them on our “Mildly Intrigued List” to open the season, thinking that they might be able to cash more often than not, especially as double-digit underdogs.
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MICHIGAN
2017 Recap Record – 8-5 ATS – 5-8
Pffffffffft. And the air went out of the balloon.
Michigan got off to an 8-2 start, but marred by sketchy QB play, they fnished up losing their last three games to fnish at 8-5. It is no serious disgrace to lose to Ohio St and Wisconsin, but the performance vs South Carolina in the Outback Bowl was pretty dismal. Michigan has a record of 28-11 under HC Harbaugh, but the fans want more. Can they step up in 2018 with a loaded roster and new QB?
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
East Division – #2
Big 10 – #2
Michigan Wolverines 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
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It’s the moment we have all been waiting for, yo. The Wolverines fnally have a legit signal caller at the controls and expectations for the offense are justifably high. Ole Miss transfer Shea Patterson has thrown for over 3,000 yards in just 10 career starts and looks to give Michigan the spark they need to get over the hump. Patterson should enjoy having a couple of young guys at WR with loads of potential (Tarik Black, Donovan Peoples-Jones) and a solid pair of TEs. Michigan has been unable to MATRICULATE consistently in the passing game in recent years, but there is no reason to think that they cannot take a big step forward in that regard. Michigan allowed a horrid 36 sacks (!) in 2017 (#110 FBS sacks allowed per game) and will need to fx the pass protection if they want to move the ball consistently vs the better defenses on their schedule.
The rushing attack should be fne with a deep group of running backs led by Karan Higdon (2017 – 994, 6.1, 11 TD) and Chris Evans (685, 5.1, 6 TD). The offensive line returns three starters, and we can see the Wolverines hitting the 200 yards per game mark on the ground. The only thing holding them back may be the tough schedule. Michigan should be dangerous on offense and fy past the 2017 output of 25.2 PPG.
DEFENSE
Michigan has been fantastic on defense the past three seasons allowing just 271, 262 and 281 yards per game over that time horizon (overall FBS rank – #3, #1, #4) (!!!). DC Don Brown has done a great job the past two years and now gets 9 returning starters to work with in 2018.
Michigan has bagged 40+ sacks in each of the past two years and this season should bring similar results. They feature a pair of 1st Team Big 10 DEs (Rashan Gary, Chase Winovich) who combined for 14 sacks and 30 TFL in 2018. The LB group is led by leading tackler and 2nd Team AA (!) Devin Bush, and the secondary returns all four starters to a group that fnished #4 in the FBS in pass effciency defense and #1 in passing yards allowed in 2017.
Bottom line? It will be funny to watch other teams attempt to score on Michigan.
SPECIAL TEAMS
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Michigan looks good in this department as well. PK Quinn Nordin made 19/24 FGs last season including 2/3 from 50+ yards. PR Donovan Peoples-Jones took one to the house last year, and that was a special treat for the MEGALOCKS POSSE which attended the event.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – Yikes. The schedule looks really tough. They play in the GROUP OF DEATH (Big 10 East) and hook up with Notre Dame, Wisconsin and Northwestern in their spare time. They do have seven home games.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Nothing jumps off the page. There are a few look ahead spots. We are more concerned with the schedule’s overall diffculty level.
Season Win Total
Over 9 -110
Under 9 -110
MEGALOCKS says:
If you bagged an 8.5, congrats. We defnitely lean to the over but the ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM appears to be the killer schedule. The can defnitely go 10-2 with this roster, it’s just going to be really tough. Pass for now.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
The fantastic helmet design dates back to 1938 when it was introduced, in large part, to help QBs locate receivers downfeld. Amaze your PSYCHO EX- GIRLFRIEND with that gem.
Michigan goes from just 5 returning starters in 2017 to a whopping 17 in 2018.
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MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 5.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the WOLVERINES a 5.5 ATS Value Rating (Slightly Above Average) this season.
Whoa. I know, I know. We have not been fans of Michigan’s ATS prospects the past couple of seasons, and they have struggled to an 18-21 (46%) mark against the point spread under the tutelage of Coach Jim. And to top it all off, there is a defnite BUZZ around the program with the arrival of QB Shea Patterson. Seems like a SQUARE opinion, yo?
The key thing to remember is that while you will almost always get the worst of the number supporting Michigan ATS, this team appears to be a legit powerhouse. And this just in; If you shutout your opponents on a regular basis, you will probably cover a lot of games. People may fuke into some winning Michigan tickets based on the sparkle of a shiny new QB, but there is a lot more to this team than Shea Patterson. FADE GUY will note that Michigan has a brutal point spread mark over the past 10 years (42%), but we feel that fade opportunities will arise primarily when they are yuuuuuge home favorites.
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MICHIGAN ST
2017 Recap Record – 10-3 ATS – 8-5
Yawn. Another double-digit win campaign.
For the fourth time in fve years the Spartans managed to bag 10+ wins, culminating in a 42-17 beating of Washington St in the Holiday Bowl (903,000 unit MEGALOCKS BOWL BANGER winner). They laid a couple of eggs during the 2017 season (Notre Dame, Ohio St – 80 STAR MEGALOCKS loser), but overall, they defnitely exceeded our expectations. This year they have a much more experienced squad. Do they have what it takes to make a run at the Big 10 Championship? Let’s fnd out.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
East Division – #4
Big 10 – #3
Michigan St Spartans 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
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All the pieces are in place this season for an uptick in offensive production (2017 – #91 total offense; 24.5 points per game). QB Brian Lewerke is one of the best signal callers in the Big 10 and is a legitimate dual threat (559 rushing yards, 5 TD LY). Lewerke only tossed 7 INT in well over 400 attempts last year and should have a fne season throwing to an underrated receiving corps. WR Felton Davis III was 2nd Team Big 10 and sophomore Cody White is an emerging star. RB LJ Scott is on a COLLISION COURSE WITH DESTINY and a 1,000-yard campaign, and he will be running behind a strong offensive line that returns four starters.
We forecast a signifcant jump in offensive production this season and would be surprised if they do not exceed 30 points per game after managing less than 25 in each of the past two years.
DEFENSE
Whoa, Nellie.
Michigan St played superb defense in 2017 fnishing up #7 in total defense and #2 vs the run, allowing a mere 95 rushing yards per game. The Spartans controlled the time of possession (#3 FBS) and that helped a really talented group stay fresh. This year they bring back 9 starters on this side of the ball and are strong at all three levels. DE Kenny Willekes leads a talented line, and he garnered 3rd Team Big 10 honors while talliying 14.5 TFL in 2017. MLB Joe Bachie led the team in tackles (100) and was 2nd Team Big 10 last season. The defensive backfeld looks fantastic with all four starters returning. As Phil Steele notes in his awesome mag, the NO FLY ZONE may be back this year in East Lansing. This defense is going to give people absolute fts in 2018.
SPECIAL TEAMS
The unit returns essentially intact and they have a good PK, P combo. Matt Coghlin made 15/19 feld goals in 2017.
Schedule Analysis
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Overall – The schedule sets up very nicely for Sparty as they get two of the three key games (Michigan, Ohio St) at home. The bye week falling on September 15th is not ideal, but they are fortunate to avoid back-to-back road games.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Nebraska (November 17). This road test comes after the big game with Ohio St. If they are coming in off a loss, the wind will be out of their sails. If they come in off a win, letdown city. Nebraska should also be better in the 2nd half of the campaign. Beware!
Season Win Total
Over 9 +110
Under 9 -130
MEGALOCKS says:
Strong lean to the over. The defense is fat out nasty and we do not see any “auto- losses” on the schedule.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Nick Saban was 0-3 in bowl games at Michigan St losing by a combined score of 134-49.
Michigan St’s original nickname was the Aggies. Amaze the local HOTTIES with that knowledge bomb.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 7.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the SPARTANS a 7.0 ATS Value Rating (Good) this season.
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If this team has any weaknesses, we have yet to fnd them. The schedule is manageable other than the tough games against the other Big 10 East powerhouses. The combination of grinding offense and solid D is not pretty, but it is often effective when it comes to beating the point spread.
Michigan St has fnished with an ATS record of 8-5 or better in four of the last seven seasons. It feels like another fne season vs the number is in the cards. The downside of course, is that they start out on SUPAH HOT FIRE leading to some infated lines. We still likey likey.
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OHIO ST
2017 Recap Record – 12-2 ATS – 8-6
“Surely you can’t be serious?”
“I am serious. And don’t call me Shirley.”
This classic line from the movie Airplane! is appropriate in this context. Ohio St fnished up with a record of 12-2 and have won 11+ games in six consecutive seasons. Surely you can’t be serious?
While it is true that they got taken behind the WOODSHED by Iowa, the Buckeyes still managed to win the Big 10 Championship with a victory over Wisconsin. It’s going to be strange to see Ohio St take the feld without QB JT Barrett, but a new quarterback era must begin in Columbus. Do they have the MINERALS to make another trip to the Big 10 Title game? Let’s dig in.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
East Division – #1
Big 10 – #1
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Ohio St Buckeyes 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
This could get ugly.
The Buckeyes look loaded even with a new QB (Dwayne Haskins) leading the offense after the departure of eight-year starter (just kidding. not really?) JT Barrett. Haskins led the comeback vs Michigan and gets to lead a truly potent offense in 2018. RB JK Dobbins is a legitimate Heisman contender (2017 – 1,403, 7.2, 7 TD; 22 receptions) and Mike Weber averaged over 6 yards per carry last season whilst bagging 10 rushing touchdowns. Overall, the Buckeyes bring back the top-six in terms of receiving yards from the 2017 offense and the WR corps might be the best in the Big 10. The offensive line looks solid even with the departure of their outstanding C Billy Price.
Ohio St averaged 41 points and 506 yards per contest in 2017. They fgure to be just as devastating this season.
DEFENSE
The Ohio St defense has held opponents to under 20 points per game in each of the last three seasons (19.0, 15.5, 15.1) but will have a challenge ahead of them in 2018 with a young defense that only returns fve starters. In fact, it may be the case that there are no senior starters. The good news is that the Buckeyes recruit as well as anyone and have a ton of raw talent.
The defensive line suffered some attrition but still boast one of the best players in college football in Nick Bosa (1st Team AA) who bagged 8.5 sacks and 16 TFL in 2017. The Buckeyes return just one starter at linebacker and two RS in the secondary, but as noted earlier, the talent level is serious. The question becomes; How quickly can this defense gel into a National Championship-worthy unit? Ohio St returned just three starters to the mix in 2016 and still managed to allow an impressive 15.5 points per contest (#3 FBS) so we need to respect the ability of these guys to dominate no matter who they put on the feld. Our Ohio St
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INSIDERS anticipate another year of allowing less than 20 points per game despite the relative inexperience.
SPECIAL TEAMS
There is full continuity at hand and the Buckeyes should be extremely confdent in their special teams. P Drue Chrisman was 1st Team Big 10 and PK Sean Nuernberger connected on 17/21 FG attempts (1/4 from 40+ yards).
Schedule Analysis
Overall – We want nothing to do with JINXING anyone, but the schedule looks really manageable considering that they play in the GROUP OF DEATH (Big 10 East). Playing TCU is not a horror show and Penn St is probably down a notch this season. Two of their last three games are vs Michigan St and Michigan but they get the Wolverines at home. We don’t see a “2017 Oklahoma” on the docket.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – TULANE (September 22). This match-up is sandwiched between games with TCU and Penn St. Ohio St will probably be laying 30+ points and that will be a lot vs a scrappy Tulane squad. Not saying. Just saying.
Season Win Total
Over 10.5 -120
Under 10.5 +100
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean to the over. It’s hard to bank on these guys losing more than one game during the regular season. There are some tough games in here but also a lot of free squares.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
144 MEGALOCKS
The only former assistant to defeat Urban Meyer was Dan Mullen back in 2010 (Mississippi St).
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 6.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the BUCKEYES a 6.0 ATS Value Rating (Above Average) this season.
The Buckeyes should prove to be devastating on offense, and we have a feeling that the defense will be more than fne. We fnd it truly impressive that Ohio St has a record of 44-37 (54.3%) against the point spread under HC Urban Meyer despite the fact that they are laying big numbers so often. Their worst ATS mark over that time horizon is 6-7.
It’s hard to project any worse than an average mark vs the number in 2018. We would look to play on these guys in their “big games” and use caution when laying enormous numbers.
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PENN ST
2017 Recap Record – 11-2 ATS – 8-5
So close.
Penn St bagged an impressive 11 wins last season and came REALLY close to all-out glory. They lost in back-to-back weeks vs Ohio St and Sparty by a combined four points, and those were the only blemishes on their record. They fnished up with a 227,000 UNIT MEGALOCKS MONSTER LOCK WINNER in the Fiesta Bowl vs Washington. That makes 22 wins over the past two campaigns. Can they fre up double-digit wins yet again?
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
East Division – #4
Big 10 – #5
2018 Penn St Nittany Lions Outlook
OFFENSE
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Yes, guy. Trace McSorley has proven himself to be an elite college QB, and he will be asked to put more of the load on his shoulders after the departure of all- universe RB Saquon Barkley. Trace accounted for 39 (!!) TDs last season (28 passing, 11 rushing) and gives Penn St yet another shot at taking down the East. The rushing attack should still work well with Miles Sanders running behind an experienced (4 RS) and yuuuge offensive line. Penn St will be without last year’s #1 WR DaeSean Hamilton and stud TE Mike Gesicki which might make things more diffcult when MATRICULATING in the passing game. The Nittany Lions will also be without OC Joe Moorhead (HC – Mississippi St) in 2018.
Our Penn St INSIDERS feel that the offense will be really good but down a notch from the 2017 unit (41.1 PPG). There are enough stat-padding games on the docket to dress up the numbers, but it remains to be seen if they can unload on the better defenses on their schedule.
DEFENSE
Penn St was ROCK solid on defense last season (#17 overall, #14 run defense, #21 pass effciency defense) and bagged 40+ sacks for the 3rd (!) consecutive season. This year they only have three returning starters and the jury is still out in terms of how close they can come to last year’s production. Seven of the top eight tacklers from the 2017 squad have departed.
Both starting DTs from the 2017 squad are gone, but they boast a budding star in DE Shareef Miller, and overall have a lot of depth to call upon. They lack experience in the linebacker corps but as you would expect, there is a ton of raw talent. They have a pair of solid corners but will miss FS Marcus Allen (NFL – Steelers). Overall, we expect a slight increase in PPG allowed due to the relative lack of experience compared to last season.
SPECIAL TEAMS
The Nittany Lions have a fne punt returner in DeAndre Thompkins (2017 – 13.3, TD) but will miss the explosive Saquon Barkley on kick returns (2 TD LY). They also need to fnd a new PK and will be working with a new ST coach. Mixed feelings here.
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Schedule Analysis
Overall – The frst four games and the fnal two contests look like LOCK CITY USA on paper, but the middle of the campaign is a meat grinder. In a six game span they face Ohio St, Michigan St, Iowa, Michigan and Wisconsin.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Rutgers (November 17). Potential letdown alert after games with the Wolverines and Badgers. Rutgers could be a live dog, especially if Penn St is out of contention for the Big 10 East crown.
Season Win Total
Over 9.5 +100
Under 9.5 -120
MEGALOCKS says:
No leanage as we go to press. It’s a tough call because it looks like there are seven games in which they should fnish up with 6-7 wins. The other fve? 9.5 seems like the right line.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Beaver Stadium is named in honor of James A Beaver, one of the most infuential leaders of the development of the university at the turn of the century. He fought in the Civil War, and eventually became governor of Pennsylvania. Amaze your BEER DRINKING BUDDIES with that gem.
Penn St has only had one Heisman Trophy winner (RB John Cappelletti – 1973).
We love the old school unis.
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MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 4.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the NITTANY LIONS a 4.0 ATS Value Rating (Below Average) this season.
Penn St is still capable of taking down the division, but the East is truly LOADED, and QB McSorley is going to have to be at his best for that to happen. The young talent on defense will have to emerge and gel quickly. Thankfully, the frst four games on the docket look like wins on paper, but then again, Pitt will probably be coming out with their hair on fre so you never know.
The Nittany Lions have gone 19-8 (70%) against the point spread over the past two seasons. Offensive stars from the 2017 squad will be missed, and the defense may need time to get up to full speed. This feels like a team that will struggle to meet market expectations when laying double digits.
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RUTGERS
2017 Recap Record – 4-8 ATS – 8-4
Well, that wasn’t so bad.
The Scarlet Knights doubled their win total (#funwithmath) and fnished up with a record of 4-8, and that was despite boasting some of the worst QB play in recorded history. They had a surprisingly strong game vs Washington (covered as 27-point dogs; lost 30-14; had more frst downs), held Purdue to 12 points in an upset win and beat Maryland by a TD. Sadly, they got plastered at the end of the season in their fnal three games to the tune of 116-13 (!), and Michigan St held the ball for almost 48 (!) minutes in the season fnale.
Can they take another step forward?
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
East Division – #7
Big 10 – Tied #13
Rutgers Scarlet Knights 2018 Outlook
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OFFENSE
It’s unclear what went on under center last season, but it did not resemble legit QB play. Rutgers fnished up #128 in total offense, #124 in passing offense and #126 in passing effciency. The SHARP ACTION appears to be backing true freshman Artur Sitkowski to get the nod as the new starting QB. He has a laser- ROCKET arm, but is still a youngster going up against some of the best defenses in college football. Senior QB Giovanni Rescigno (47% completions in 2017) appears to be the “backup” plan. Whoever gets the call for QB duties is going to have a young and inexperienced group of receivers with which to MATRICULATE down the feld in the passing game.
The Scarlet Knights lose their top-2 RBs from the 2017 squad but do get the addition of Boston College veteran Jon Hilliman. There is some promising young talent in the group and they will run behind an offensive line that offers some size and experience (three returning starters).
Overall, it’s hard to see the Scarlet Knights improving a lot on offense, particularly if they go with a true freshman at QB. They will, however be able to stretch the feld if Sitkowski wins the job. Our RUTGERS INSIDERS estimate 20-21 points per game (2017 -18.0).
DEFENSE
There is defnitely good news on this side of the ball. Rutgers fnished up a respectable #72 in total defense last season despite getting no help from the offense. They also had a mediocre sack total (16 – #112 FBS) that gave opponents a lot of time to fnd options down the feld. The Scarlet Knights have some size and experience on the DL but we still worry about the amount of PENETRATION they will be able to generate. The back seven on defense is going to be pretty good as they boast proven talent AND experience (four projected senior starters at LB and DB). It seems to us that Rutgers has the potential to crack the top-50 in total defense if they can cobble together a decent DL. Overall, this is defnitely a sneaky-good unit on paper.
SPECIAL TEAMS
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Uh oh. There is essentially a total reload in this department. Time will tell, but this appears to be a team weakness.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – There are enough winnable games in the frst eight weeks (Texas St, Kansas, Buffalo, Indiana, Illinois, Maryland) of the season to help them gain confdence. The end of the season is a killer with four rock solid teams (Wisconsin, Michigan, Penn St, Michigan St) standing between them and a potential bowl game appearance.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – BUFFALO (September 22). They fy back from Kansas and have two winnable Big 10 games on deck. Would be leery of laying too many points in this lookahead situation.
Season Win Total
Over 4 +105
Under 4 -135
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean to the over; Hard to imagine them not bagging at least four in the frst two months.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Rutgers is often referred to as the “birthplace of college football” in light of their participation in the frst ever intercollegiate football game in 1869. You will all remember that they defeated Princeton 6-4 in a true SNOT BUBBLER that went down to the wire.
Rutgers University is located in New Jersey, and as such, they do not have an in- state football rival.
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MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 5.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the SCARLET KNIGHTS a 5.0 ATS Value Rating (Neutral) this season.
Rutgers is on the right path, but it seems as though they may be a year away from pulling more than a minor upset or two. The defense will be good enough to keep them in a lot of games, but the offense is likely to be at best “inconsistent”, and at worst, “horrible”. Keep an eye on the QB situation and the emergence of playmakers at WR. The defense should be fne.
We give them a puncher’s chance of making a bowl game given the number of winnable games in the frst two months of the season, but the end of the schedule is comically diffcult. Keep chopping wood, boys.
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BIG 10
WEST DIVISION
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ILLINOIS
2017 Recap Record – 2-10 ATS – 4-8
Last season put the “grease” in “grease fre” as the Illini lost ten straight games to end the season. They tallied more than 14 points once (!) in the fnal half of the season (17 vs Minnesota) and were outscored in Big 10 play by a combined score of 303-118. They are 5-19 under HC Lovie Smith and have not had a winning season since 2011 (7-6). They have slowly been assembling more talent, but will it show up in the win-loss record in 2018? Let’s examine.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
West Division – #7
Big 10 – Tied #13
Illinois Fighting Illini 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
At some point, this needs to get better. Illinois managed just 280 yards and 15.4 (!) points per game in 2017. They were equally pathetic running (#122 FBS) and MATRICULATING in the passing game (#106). New OC Rod Smith will
155 2018 SEASON PREVIEW increase the tempo and try and get more production out of the unit this season. But does he have the tools in the toolbox?
The starting QB duties will almost certainly go to Virginia Tech transfer AJ Bush (11 passes at the FBS level; has not offcially joined the team as we go to press) or sophomore Cameron Thomas (he of the 0-5 TD to INT ratio last season). The offensive line returns four starters and has some decent size BUT they were REALLY bad last season averaging a mere 3.3 yards per carry whilst allowing 42 (!) sacks (#125 FBS sacks allowed per game). They are going to need to improve signifcantly if they plan on getting effcient and effective QB play. The leading rusher in 2017 was Mike Epstein (346) and he is back this season. The overall quality at RB appears ominous. If the QBs can avoid getting killed, there are sneaky-good options down the feld. TE Louis Dorsey averaged 18 (!) yards per reception in 2017 and WRs Ricky Smalling (16.5) and Mike Dudek (17th year senior?) are an above average combination.
It’s impossible to forecast these guys being worse on offense, but that is not exactly a ringing endorsement. They will probably fnish in the range of 20-22 points per game provided that the QB play is better than a “disaster”.
DEFENSE
Things are more promising on this side of the football. The Illini only recorded 19 sacks in 2017 whilst fnishing #116 in the FBS in run defense, #78 in pass effciency defense and #105 in 3rd down defense. The good news is that they return eight starters (experience can’t be bad – amiright?) with promise at all three levels. There is size at DT with both men weighing in at 300+, the LB corps returns last season’s leading tackler Del’Shawn Phillips, and the secondary boasts four returning starters. HC Lovie Smith will probably prevent this unit from being a total DEBACLE, but we have yet to see much improvement on the feld the past two seasons. This could be the year the unit makes a step forward.
SPECIAL TEAMS
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Well, it’s not a horrible situation. The kicking and return specialists all return. It should be noted that PK Chase McLaughlin was 12/17 on FG attempts but just 3/8 from 40+ yards.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – It’s actually pretty reasonable. The Big 10 West is the weaker half of the conference and they avoid Ohio St, Michigan and Sparty. They should start out 2-0 with games against Kent St and Western Illinois.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Maryland (October 27). This is their 3rd road test in four weeks and it comes after a likely gruesome beatdown at the hands of Wisconsin.
Season Win Total
Over 4 +120
Under 4 -150
MEGALOCKS says:
No leanage as we go to press. We must say, while it may take some serious digging into the schedule to fnd 5 wins (over), it is not a given they will win three or less (under) given that they start the season with Kent St and Western Illinois. USF, Rutgers, Purdue, Maryland, and Minnesota are also winnable games. Dare we say even the road date with CORN in November.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Illinois has not won more than one road game in any of the last 10 seasons.
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MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 4.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the FIGHTING ILLINI a 4.0 ATS Value Rating (Below Average) this season.
Man. We think the defense is good enough to help them cover some big point spreads BUT there is a lingering feeling among our staff members that the offense could be a FIASCO. Will they uncover a viable signal caller? How will the change in offensive philosophy work out? Lovie Smith?
The Illini have gone 9-15 (37.5%) vs Vegas the past two seasons despite catching a bundle of points in almost every game. In fact, they have covered more than 6 games only once in the past 10 years. The upside is there with an improved OL (?) and decent defense, but we worry a lot about their ability to score points and losing the will to live when the season gets offcially buried (early November?).
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IOWA
2017 Recap Record – 8-5 ATS – 6-5-2
Well, it wasn’t pretty, but the Hawkeyes managed to scratch and claw their way to an 8-5 mark last season. The memorable BEATING of Ohio State (55-24) was the hi-light of a season that was overall, fairly mundane. Outside of that victory, it’s hard to say what the signature win was in 2017. Iowa St? Nebraska? Boston College? That’s the problem when you are as good and consistent as Iowa. A trip to the Big 10 Championship has to be the goal every year. Let’s see what’s in store for 2018.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
West Division – #3
Big 10 – #7
Iowa Hawkeyes 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
Iowa did REALLY well to bag eight wins last year considering their offense was ranked #116 in the FBS (#96 rushing, #93 passing). QB Nathan Stanley had a
159 2018 SEASON PREVIEW fne TD-INT ratio in 2017 (26-6) but only completed 56% of his passes whilst fumbling 7 times (!). Stanley’s leading returning receiver (Nick Easley) had just 530 yards last season, but TE Noah Fant was exceptional averaging 16.5 (!) yards per reception and hauling in 11 TDs. Iowa is going to have to enjoy more success in the passing game if they want to compete for the West crown.
Did we mention the Hawkeyes will have to move on without their excellent RB Akrum Wadley? He rushed for over 1,100 yards and 10 TDs whilst registering 28 receptions. They will miss his production and elusiveness. RB James Butler also departs. The leading returning rusher is Toren Young who ran for 193 yards in 2017. The OL returns three starters but we note that they averaged less than 4 yards per carry last year.
Our Iowa INSIDERS forecast 28 PPG which is in line with last year’s production. There is probably more downside risk than upside.
DEFENSE
Iowa allowed less than 20 PPG (19.9) for the 2nd consecutive season, but this year they need to move on without star LB Josey Jewell (Big 10 D POY) and CB Josh Jackson. Both were unanimous 1st Team AA selections. They lose six of their top eight tacklers from the 2017 stop unit and are lacking experience in the LB corps. The DL looks solid with Parker Heese and Anthony Nelson back for duty (20 TFL combined in 2017) but we worry about the experience in the back 7. Thankfully, the Hawkeyes are well coached and almost always exceed “on paper” expectations when it comes to defense.
We believe they will be down a notch from their 2017 performance (19.9 PPG, 357 yards per game allowed).
SPECIAL TEAMS
The kicking game looks to be in fne shape with P Colton Rastetter and PK Miguel Recinos (11/13 FG LY). They could use some additional spice in the return units.
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Schedule Analysis
Overall – Why does it feel like every 2nd year Iowa has a comically easy schedule? They get Northern Illinois, Iowa St and Northern Iowa to start the season at home. They avoid Michigan, Ohio St and Sparty. There is one legitimately diffcult road game on paper (Penn St).
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Purdue (November 3). This will be Iowa’s fourth road game in fve weeks. Purdue has enough frepower to make this game interesting.
Season Win Total
Over 6.5 +105
Under 6.5 -125
MEGALOCKS says:
We lean to the over. We are not keen on their overall prospects vs Vegas (see below), but it is really hard to see them going 6-6 or worse given the schedule they have in front of them.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Looking for the #1 HC in terms of tenure? Look no further than Kirk Ferentz who is entering his 20th season as head ball coach.
Iowa won their frst bowl game since 2010 when they defeated Boston College in the Pinstripe Bowl last year.
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MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 4.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the HAWKEYES a 4.0 ATS Value Rating (Below Average) this season.
The schedule may be favorable, but there are a lot of missing pieces from the 2017 squad that won eight games. The division is improving and we see the gap between Iowa and the rest of the Big 10 West bottom feeders (Illinois excluded) closing rapidly. Iowa is just 44% against the point spread as home favorites over the past ten years and they will be in that role a lot this year. They are not a prime candidate for FADE GUY’S list, but we are not keen on their overall prospects against the number in 2018.
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MINNESOTA
2017 Recap Record – 5-7 ATS – 4-7-1
Gotta keep rowing that boat.
The Gophers missed out on bowl eligibility in year one of the PJ Fleck era as they lost four of their fnal fve games to fnish up with a mark of 5-7. They lost the fnal two games of the campaign by a combined score of 70-0 (!), so they don’t enter this season with a ton of momentum. Is there enough talent on board for redemption in 2018? Let’s fnd out.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
West Division – #6
Big 10 – #11
Minnesota Golden Gophers 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
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The QB situation was a hot mess last season (#121 passing yards, #119 passing effciency, 47% completions) and the Gophers enter 2018 with more uncertainty at the position. Minnesota will need to go with either a true freshman (Zack Annexstad) or redshirt freshman (Tanner Morgan) under center. They do have a legit #1 WR in Tyler Johnson (35-677, 19.3, 7 TD in 10 games) but no other proven talent. The running game should be more than fne with a really good RB Rodney Smith (977 yards rushing last year) working behind an offensive line that returns four starters. Minnesota was able to have a decent rushing attack in 2017 despite no threat of a passing game (409 yards vs Nebraska, 292 vs Illinois, 253 vs Oregon St) but they will struggle against the better defenses in the Big 10 if they cannot fnd more balance.
DEFENSE
The Gophers played solid defense yet again last year (22.8 PPG allowed) and have not given up more than 25.2 points per contest since 2011. Things look promising in 2018 with the return of 7 starters, although the lack of depth may become an issue. Last year’s leading sack man DE/LB Carter Coughlin returns as does leading tackler MLB Thomas Barber (115 tackles, 10.5 TFL). The secondary welcomes back S Antoine Winfeld who missed most of the 2017 season due to injury, and they add Florida transfer Chris Williamson at CB. Overall, we are pretty high on the defense and project similar numbers to last season. They just need to fnd a way to shore up the run defense (#73 LY).
SPECIAL TEAMS
There are a couple of nice pieces here with PK Emmit Carpenter (14/20 FG LY) and Rodney Smith returning kicks (25.9, TD).
Schedule Analysis
Overall – It’s actually not that bad. The frst four games on the docket are all winnable, although the home date with Fresno St and road test at Maryland will not be layups. They also have a fve game stretch later in the season that should produce at least two wins. PRO TIP – If they want to go bowling they better not need the last game of the season to get there (at Wisconsin).
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Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Nothing really stands out. There may be a bit of a look ahead issue when they tackle Miami Ohio in mid-September. As noted earlier, the schedule is very manageable.
Season Win Total
Over 6 +100
Under 6 -130
MEGALOCKS says:
Strong lean to the over. It seems almost certain they will start the season 3-1 or 4- 0. There are a number of additional winnable games later in the year.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
The Gophers 10-3 record in 2003 was their frst 10+ win season since 1905.
Minnesota’s only Heisman Trophy winner was RB Bruce Smith (1941).
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 5.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the GOLDEN GOPHERS a 5.5 ATS Value Rating (Slightly Above Average) this season.
We are starting to come around to the Gophers. There is a huge unknown at QB, but everything else looks to be in good shape, provided that they can avoid a nasty run of injuries. The running game and defense look solid, and to be honest, they may fy under the radar with other teams in the division getting more attention (Wisconsin, Iowa) or being pegged for ascent (Purdue, Nebraska).
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Minnesota went 4-7-1 vs the point spread in PJ Fleck’s frst year at the controls. Six of the previous eight seasons were .500 or better ATS marks, and we can see these guys grinding out at least half a dozen wins vs the number in 2018. Just keep an eye on the QB situation.
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NEBRASKA
2017 Recap Record – 4-8 ATS – 4-8
Ouch.
Nebraska started out winning three of their frst fve contests (Arkansas St, Rutgers, Illinois) and it all went downhill from there as they fnished with a mark of 4-8. They were plastered in their fnal three games allowing 50+ (!) on each occasion. That seems impossible, yet it happened.
Things are looking up in Lincoln with the arrival of Scott Frost as head coach. Optimism abounds. Let’s go!
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
West Division – #5
Big 10 – #9
Nebraska Cornhuskers 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
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It’s not a great recipe for success. The Huskers were #119 in rushing offense and #78 in passing effciency whilst ranking 89th in 3rd down conversions. Scott Frost’s UCF offense moved like a TREMENDOUS MACHINE in 2017, and we should expect a big improvement in the Nebraska rushing attack. It won’t happen overnight, but we expect the offense to be much more effcient as the season moves along.
The big question is who will be the starting QB? True freshman Adrian Martinez had a fne spring and is a dynamic running threat. They may turn to redshirt freshman Tristan Gebbia. Either way, there is going to be some success AND bumps in the road. It’s unclear if there are any stars in the RB group, but Nebraska has a lot of experienced backs and add JUCO transfer Greg Bell to the mix. The projected offensive line has good size and three seniors. It’s not out of the question to foresee Nebraska come close to doubling their rushing yards per game (2017 – 108). When Nebraska chooses to MATRICULATE in the passing game, they can do so with an underrated unit of WRs including 1st Team Big 10 honoree Stanley Morgan (61-986, 16.2, 10 TD) and sophomore JD Spielman who had a really good freshman campaign (55-830, 15.1, 2 TD).
It is going to take some time for Nebraska to make big strides, but we project the Huskers to exceed 30 points and 400 yards per game for the frst time since 2015.
DEFENSE
There is a lot of work to be done on this side of the ball. Last season Nebraska fnished up last in the Big 10 (!) in total defense allowing a miserable 436 yards per game. They also struggled on 3rd downs (#99) and were pathetic when it came to getting PENETRATION (just 14 sacks – #118 FBS sacks per game; #128 in TFL per game).
We expect signifcant improvement on this side of the football with improved coaching and more experience (8 returning starters; 12 of top 15 tacklers return). Nebraska appears to have adequate size on the DL and should defnitely have an improved secondary. Per the great Phil Steele mag, Nebraska CBs did not have an interception in 2017 which is quite the accomplishment. We also note that Nebraska forced just 12 turnovers all season which placed them last in the Big
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10. Our NEBRASKA INSIDERS project a TD+ improvement on defense in terms of points per game allowed (2017 – 36.4).
SPECIAL TEAMS
Nebraska looks to be in good shape. They will miss reliable PK Drew Brown but appear to have a fne replacement in highly-regarded recruit Barret Pickering. KR JD Spielman returned one for a TD last year and averaged almost 25 yards a pop.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – It’s a good schedule in terms of getting things rolling with three winnable home games (Akron, Colorado, Troy) but evil in terms of fve diffcult road tests (Michigan, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Ohio St, Iowa). We would not be surprised if they needed a win over Iowa in the season fnale to bag a bowl invite.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Northwestern (October 13th). This will be the Huskers 3rd road game in four weeks and it comes after a trip to Michigan, a really important game with Purdue and a potential road massacre at the hands of Wisconsin.
Season Win Total
Over 6 -160
Under 6 +130
MEGALOCKS says:
We have to take a pass. The price is pretty steep and all nine of our supercomputers have Nebraska coming in at between fve and seven wins. There is more upside (7+) than downside (5-) but the line seems about right. Five deadly road contests will probably result in 3-4 losses making a 7-win season a tough get.
NOTE – line moved to 6.5 after we posted this preview. Passing at this number.
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MEGAmazing Tidbits
Nebraska’s frst game was a 10-0 victory over something called Omaha YMCA back in 1890.
Memorial Stadium becomes the “third-largest city in Nebraska” on game days as its “population” is only exceeded by Omaha and Lincoln.
Nebraska has never had a receiver tally 1,000 yards in a season. Yup. Factoid.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 6.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the CORNHUSKERS a 6.0 ATS Value Rating (Above Average) this season.
We had Nebraska nailed in our 2017 preview when we stamped them with a 3.0 ATS Value Rating and stated the following….“Nebraska may be in for a bit of a rough season. There is inexperience on both sides of the football and the schedule does not do them any favors”.
Can we possibly hit another DINGER with our Nebraska forecast?
New HC Scott Frost has been quoted saying “We will be a really good team in two years”. There is a lot of reason to be optimistic about the future of Nebraska football, but there are still going to be growing pains in the short term. We forecast improvement on both sides of the ball in 2018.
Nebraska is going to be a trendy ATS pick on many occasions this season with so much optimism surrounding the program. The good news for Husker backers vs the point spread is that their improvement is likely to exceed market expectations. At least that is what we think. The defense is still a concern, as is the schedule, but we see no reason to believe that CORN cannot be winners vs Vegas over the course of the season.
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NORTHWESTERN
2017 Recap Record – 10-3 ATS – 9-4
The Wildcats got off to another slow start (2-3) and then proceeded to win their fnal 8 (!) games of the season, culminating in a bowl victory over SEC foe Kentucky in the Music City Bowl. That gave the Wildcats their 2nd 10-win season in the past three years. It was another impressive under-the-radar performance by the players and coaching staff. Do they have the MINERALS to do it again? Can they give Wisconsin a run for their money?
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
West Division – #2
Big 10 – #6
Northwestern Wildcats 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
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The Cats were balanced on offense last season fnishing #5 in the Big 10 in rush- ing and #6 in passing offense, but the big plays were few and far between, and the effciency was not there when they chose to MATRICULATE down the feld in the passing game (#92 passing effciency; QB Thorson 15 TD, 12 INT). Speaking of the QB situation, there is a lot to talk about. Starting QB Clayton Thorson tore his ACL in their bowl game and is a question mark to start the sea- son. The Cats bagged star recruit Hunter Johnson (transfer from Clemson) but he will sit out the 2018 campaign. We will keep tabs on the QB play during fall camp, but Thorson will defnitely be missed if he cannot go.
Northwestern will also have to navigate the season without all-time leading rusher Justin Jackson (5,440) who was as reliable as they come (FOUR 1,000- yard seasons) (!). RB Jeremy Larkin had over 100 yards in their bowl win but it remains to be seen if he can be as durable and productive. The offensive line has paved the way for 4+ yards per carry in three consecutive seasons and they return four starters in 2018. They bring back their top-2 WRs (Bennett Skowronek – 644, Flynn Nagel – 489) but we would like to see more big plays out of the group.
With the uncertainty at QB (Thorson could miss up to three games) and loss of Jackson, we think the Cats’ production will decrease slightly from their 2017 output of 29.2 PPG.
DEFENSE
Northwestern has allowed an average of just 20.3 PPG over the past three seasons. Last year they were #9 (!) in the FBS in rushing defense and #28 in pass effciency defense (#100 passing yards allowed). Things look promising again as they return seven starters to the stop unit including their top-2 tacklers from 2017 (excellent LB duo – Paddy Fisher, Nate Hall). And their HC Pat Fitzgerald knows a thing or two about defense. Northwestern bagged 30+ sacks for the 2nd straight season and they return most of their production from a season ago. They boast a pair of experienced corners and had an impressive 18 TD to 17 INT ratio in 2017. It’s going to be tough sledding for opponents against the Wildcats defense once again.
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SPECIAL TEAMS
This feels like an average group. The return game was sub-par last year and they could use explosiveness. PK Charlie Kuhbander made 13/16 FGs in 2017.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – Hmm. At frst we thought the docket was favorable, and now we are not so sure. The frst two games at Purdue and home to Duke are both tossups, particularly if they are without their starting QB. Later on they have fve tough ones in a span of seven weeks (Michigan, at Sparty, Wisconsin, Irish, at Iowa). Conclusion? They are going to need to be their usual scrappy selves to stay in division contention heading into the fnal couple of weeks.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – NOTRE DAME (November 3). It’s always easy to get up for a game with Notre Dame, but this contest pops up in a Wisconsin/Iowa sandwich. If they lose to Wisconsin and fall behind a couple of games in the division (due to tiebreaker) we would be leery of backing the Cats in this spot.
Season Win Total
Over 6 -120
Under 6 -110
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean to the over. The total is a bit light but it is likely due to the uncertain injury status of QB Clayton Thorson.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Northwestern has won three of their past four bowl games. Prior to that they had the longest bowl losing streak of all-time (9 – tied with Notre Dame). Amaze your local BARTENDER with that gem.
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The last time Northwestern had a negative turnover margin was in 2010 (-1).
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 4.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the WILDCATS a 4.0 ATS Value Rating (Below Average) this season.
Last season we nailed the ATS prospects for this squad when we opined the following……The Wildcats are 16-10 ATS the past two seasons and we hesitate just a bit giving them a ringing endorsement. The reality is, however, that when you combine solid QB play with a good running game AND solid defense not much can go wrong. Theoretically, at least. We project the Wildcats to have another solid year in the win column and vs Vegas.
Can we do a BABE RUTH and call our shot yet again?
There is just a little too much uncertainty to give these guys a season-long ATS endorsement. The offense worries us given the status of QB Thorson, the departure of Northwestern G.O.A.T RB Jackson and the schedule is not kind. The defense should keep them in every game but this season just might be a meat grinder for these guys.
Northwestern has been a big time CASH MACHINE vs the point spread over the past three seasons booking a record of 25-14 (64%) vs the Vegas line. The previous two campaigns were a 8-16 DEBACLE, and while we do not see that kind of ATS mark this year, it seems prudent to use more caution than normal when backing the Cats.
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PURDUE
2017 Recap Record – 7-6 ATS – 9-4
Yes, guy.
Purdue looked like they were going to miss out on a bowl game before they decided to BOILER UP and win their fnal two games to fnish the regular season at 6-6. They then proceeded to beat Arizona in the Foster Farms bowl and fnish with a winning record. Year one of the Jeff Brohm era has to be considered a rousing success since it was Purdue’s frst winning season since 2011 (7-6). What can they do for an encore?
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
West Division – #4
Big 10 – #8
Purdue Boilermakers 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
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Purdue has two capable signal callers to take the reins but there are injury concerns with both men. Elijah Sindelar and David Blough combined for 27 TDs and just 11 INT in 2017, but each of them suffered a signifcant injury last year. Either way, we are certain that HC Brohm can get good results from the QB position. The running game looks rock solid on paper with their top-5 RBs from 2017 all returning for duty. Markell Jones and DJ Knox combined for over 1,100 yards last year and both men averaged 5+ yards per carry. The offensive line returns four starters and should lead the way for improved production (152, 4.4 LY). It’s not unthinkable to see Purdue approach 200 yards per game on the ground. The WR group loses their top two and will beneft greatly if a star can emerge this season AND if the OL can do a better job in pass protection (#11 Big 10 sacks allowed per game).
Purdue will almost certainly have their best output since 2012 when they averaged 28.7 PPG, and it would not shock us to see them exceed 30 PPG. It feels like they will be too much for the weaker defenses on their schedule but it remains to be seen how effective they can be vs the real tough Big 10 stop units.
DEFENSE
Wow. Purdue’s defense had an incredible transformation in 2017 allowing just 20.5 PPG after getting roasted for 38.3 (!) PPG in 2016. They were particularly stingy against the run (#29 FBS) yielding a mere 3.5 yards per attempt. It will be interesting to see how the defense will do this year with so many solid performers from the 2017 unit no longer with the team (4 returning starters). In particular, we worry about the run defense that was so solid a year ago but has to reload almost the entire starting DL. Last campaign’s leading tackler MLB Ja’Whaun Bentley departs and he led the team in tackles whilst compiling 11.5 TFL a season ago. Oh, and they also lose their two starting corners.
Purdue allowed 30+ PPG in fve straight seasons before their excellent performance last year. We are not going to call for a return to the 30-land, but it seems reasonable to expect a TD or so worse in terms of points per game allowed.
SPECIAL TEAMS
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Purdue will need to improve in the return department as they averaged a paltry 1.4 (!) yards per punt return (last Big 10) and 17.0 yards per KO return (hey, last Big 10). They should be fne at PK and P.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – The year starts off with four consecutive home games and they may get Northwestern without their starting QB in the opener (stay tuned). We do think, however, that three of those four contests may be tougher than expected with Missouri and Boston College also being tough outs. Then they go on the road to Nebraska. You can make the case for a 5-0 or 4-1 start, but also 2-3. The second half of the schedule is pretty diffcult. Overall, we only see a pair of layups (Eastern Michigan, at Illinois) so there may be more trouble than you think. The good news is that they avoid back-to-back road games (without a bye week in between).
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Boston College (September 22). This will be their fourth straight home game and it comes before Big 10 play opens the following week (at Huskers). They better strap it on because Boston College is going to test that run defense and they are tougher than a $3 steak.
Season Win Total
Over 6 -130
Under 6 +100
MEGALOCKS says:
No leanage as we go to press. It’s not a popular opinion, but we can see Purdue being as good as last year (better on offense, worse on defense) and having it not show up in the win-loss record. As noted earlier, the schedule has a couple of early season land mines and is also very challenging over the last six games. If they get to seven wins, it seems to us that it will be because they got off to a really hot start. Possible, sure. We just need more time to think this through.
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MEGAmazing Tidbits
Purdue’s four conference wins last year exceeded the COMBINED TOTAL of the previous FOUR campaigns (3). Whoa, Nellie.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 3.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the BOILERMAKERS a 3.5 ATS Value Rating (Below Average) this season.
There is no doubt this is a program on the rise. We are yuuuuge Jeff Brohm fans, but this rebuilding project may have to take a small step back before it takes another step forward. The offense will be productive but it is unclear what we are dealing with on defense with so many new starters. The schedule is also a little more diffcult than it frst appears.
Our Purdue prognostication (say THAT ten times fast) in 2017 missed the mark big time as we were shocked by how well the defense played. Maybe we just don’t get it? Good things are on the way for Purdue but we forecast a bit of a struggle ATS as they will be the darlings of many AND have to deal with increased expectations.
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WISCONSIN
2017 Recap Record – 13-1 ATS – 9-5
Roll baby, roll.
The Badgers steamrolled their way to a 12-0 record heading into the Big 10 Championship game but could not get past Ohio St. They fnished up with a win over YOUR Miami Hurricanes in the Orange Bowl to put the icing on a 13-1 season. It may be true that their schedule was a bit “light”, but the fact remains Wisconsin has had an amazing run over the past four seasons bagging 11,10,11 and 13 wins. All they have to do now is take the next step and get to the College Football Playoff.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
West Division – #1
Big 10 – #3
Wisconsin Badgers 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
179 2018 SEASON PREVIEW
This should be fun. Star RB Jonathan Taylor garnered 2nd Team AA honors as a true freshman last season as he rushed for nearly 2,000 yards (1,977). Taylor should have a monster year running behind a massive and talented offensive line that is chock-full of NFL-level talent. QB Alex Hornibrook threw too many picks last season (25 TD, 15 INT), but overall, he is a nice complement to their devastating ground attack. The Badgers fnished up #23 in the FBS in rushing and #23 in passing effciency. Wisconsin will defnitely miss star TE Troy Fumagalli (NFL – Denver) who was comically uncoverable (a football term. or at least it should be) but have promise at WR with Quintez Cephus and Danny Davis.
This offense should be able to rip many teams on their schedule to shreds. Our Wisconsin INSIDERS project their best offensive output since 2011 when they lit up the scoreboard for 44 points per game (33.8, 34.6, 34.8 in three of the last fve seasons).
DEFENSE
You want defense? The Badgers can give you that too. Wisconsin was #2 in total defense last season and were an amazing #3 vs the run and #1 (!) in pass effciency defense. Again, it was not a Murderers’ Row in terms of a schedule, but DC Jim Leonhard did a fantastic job.
There are only four returning starters on the 2018 stop unit and it will be interesting to see if the Badgers can achieve the same level of PENETRATION (42 sacks LY) and disruption. They are much less experienced on the DL but return their top-2 tacklers in LBs TJ Edwards (1st Team AA) and Ryan Connelly. They lose a lot of talent in the secondary and will almost certainly be down a notch in the pass effciency defense rankings this year. Wisconsin has not allowed more than 16 points or 100 yards rushing (!) in any of the past three campaigns. On paper they still appear to be a top-20 defense, but it remains to be seen if they can be dominant.
SPECIAL TEAMS
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The unit boasts an excellent PK in Rafael Gaglianone who connected on 16/18 feld goal attempts in 2017 (4/4 from 40+ yards). The return game could use some additional spice.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – The non-conference schedule looks like a total cakewalk (WKU, New Mexico, BYU) but they do face tough road tests at Iowa, Michigan and Penn St. If they can bag a pair of wins in those three games (likely) it will almost certainly mean another trip to the Big 10 Championship.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – BYU (September 15). This game follows a pair of almost-certain blowout wins (WKU, New Mexico) and precedes a road date with Iowa. The spread is likely to be yuuuuuge and BYU is scrappy and probably improved. Wisconsin handled the Cougars on the road by a score of 40-6 last season. What could possibly go wrong?
Season Win Total
Over 10 +110
Under 10 -130
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean to the over. They would have to lose almost all of their tough games to fnish up with three losses. Seems like a decent play at plus money.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
In 1993, Wisconsin defeated Michigan St 41-20 in the Coca-Cola Bowl in TOKYO (!) to earn their frst Rose Bowl berth in 31 years. Amaze your ANNOYING CO-WORKERS with that knowledge bomb.
The last time the Badgers allowed more than 22 points per game was 2008 (26.5), the year that Breaking Bad was just getting started.
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MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 7.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the BADGERS a 7.0 ATS Value Rating (Good) this season.
This has the potential for a special season. If Wisconsin can fnd a way to get back to the Big 10 Championship Game (one loss or better), and win the thing, they will make the College Football Playoff. The offense will be comically effcient, and the defense should still be rock solid, even with just four returning starters. The schedule has a few land mines, but there are lots of easy wins to enjoy.
HC Paul Chryst has done a wonderful job posting a mark of 34-7 with the Badgers including a 14-1 (!) record on the road. Even better? The Badgers are 26-14-1 (65%) (!) against the point spread the past three seasons. REGRESSION GUY may forecast a downturn in Vegas fortunes this year, but it seems to us that the Badgers are loaded and not an optimal fade. Besides, boring is usually never in vogue. Value will probably still be present.
We are on the Badgers train but the best point spread opportunities will likely come in their road games (just .500 ATS L3Y as home chalk).
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BIG 12
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BAYLOR
Recap Record – 1-11 ATS – 5-7
It didn’t go exactly to script as the Bears lost 11 games for the frst time in school history. There were a lot of distractions and personnel departures to deal with and HC Matt Rhule held things together pretty well. A one-win season is not ideal, but they were very competitive against some good teams like Oklahoma (L 49- 41) and West Virginia (L 38-36). They also discovered their QB of the future. Things can only get better.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Big 12 – #8
Baylor Bears 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
Freshman QB Charlie Brewer did well in his frst work at QB with a good 11-4 TD to INT ratio and some fashes of brilliance. Brewer garnered Big 12 Frosh OPOY honors and enters his sophomore season with a really nice group of weapons with which to infict damage. The entire WR group comes back this year including 2nd Team Big 12 honoree Denzel Mims (61-1,087, 8 TD) and
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Chris Platt (25.1 yards per catch LY). They also add Vols’ transfer Jalen Hurd (yes, THAT Jalen Hurd) who sat out last season. The RB unit is very underrated. They have a group that can give you rushing, receptions and blocking. It remains to be seen if there is a true #1 but they have a lot of fexibility with these guys. The OL was a mess last season but they return experience and size this year (4/5 starters). If the big boys can make a nice step forward (117 rushing yards LY, 38 sacks allowed) the Bears have a chance to be really good on offense.
DEFENSE
The Bears were roughed up last season fnishing #111 in total defense (#91 run defense, #118 pass effciency D) but they bring back 8 starters to this year’s stop unit. The DL will improve in the 2nd year under HC Matt Rhule and they feature a fne NT in 2nd Team Big 12 member Ira Lewis (11.5 TFL LY). The LB corps returns a pair of starters including Clay Johnston who missed a chunk of last year due to injury. The secondary features 3/4 returning starters and the addition of Temple transfer Derrek Thomas. Despite all of this good news, it should be repeated that the defense was a mess last year and allowed 457 YPG, 66% completions whilst only picking off 3 (!!) passes.
We forecast a move forward but it remains to be seen how good they can be in 2018.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Things are in good shape. The return units were decent last year and the kicking game should be rock solid with PK Connor Martin (20/24 FG LY) and senior Drew Galitz at P.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – It sets up very nicely. They don’t face back-to-back road games (without a bye week in between) and the non-conference docket is very palatable (Abilene Christian, at UTSA, Duke).
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – None noted.
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Season Win Total
Over 6 -105
Under 6 -125
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean to the over. The total is surprisingly high for a team that won just a single contest last year. They will need to start hot because the middle of their schedule is nasty. We still like them to slither into a bowl game.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
We didn’t realize there were BEARS roaming the Baylor campus, so we got our SMOKING HOT INTERNS to fnd out how Baylor got their nickname. It seems that in 1914, the students voted to name BEAR the offcial Patron Saint of all Baylordom. The frst live bear to arrive on campus was a gift from soldiers at Camp MacArthur in Waco in the year 1917. Now THAT is a trivia nugget.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 9.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the BEARS a 9.5 ATS Value Rating (Yes, Guy) this season.
The Bears reeled off seven or more wins from 2010-2016. That is pretty impressive given the previous history of the program. We are big fans of HC Matt Rhule and think he will get the Bears playing competitive Big 12 football starting this season.
Rhule is an eye-popping 39-24 (62%) vs the point spread as a HC. It feels like a perfect storm for Baylor to be a big-time money-maker in 2018.
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IOWA ST
2017 Recap Record – 8-5 ATS – 9-3-1
What a ride!
We should have known after the entertaining game with Iowa in week 2 (lost in OT 44-41) that special things were on the horizon. Iowa St SHOCKED the WORLD by defeating the Sooners in Norman and took down TCU later in the campaign. The Cyclones posted a winning mark for only the second time in the past 10 years (2009 – 7-6) and put the cherry on the cake with a bowl win over a JUGGERNAUT Memphis squad.
What can they do for an encore?
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Big 12 – #6
Iowa St Cyclones 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
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Iowa St had a QB carousel last year and still managed to bag eight wins. Kyle Kempt was fantastic completing 66% of his passes with a great 15-3 TD to INT ratio whilst leading the yuuuuge upset of Oklahoma. Kempt should be able to MATRICULATE effectively down the feld given the return of WR Hakeem Butler (17.0 YPC, 7 TD LY), imposing TE Chase Allen (6’7) and receiving ability of RB David Montgomery (36 receptions). He will however have to operate without #1 Allen Lazard who graduated as the school’s all-time receiving yardage leader.
Speaking of Mr Montgomery he led the team with 1,146 yards rushing and 11 TDs in addition to his aforementioned receiving prowess. His ability to run with the white-hot intensity of 10,000 suns and break numerous tackles has made him a MEGALOCKS favorite. The Cyclones had a hard time getting the run game going last year (#9 Big 12 rushing offense) but were exceptional in pass protection (19 sacks allowed in 13 games). The line brings back three starters but will be without 2nd Team Big 12 LT Jake Campos.
DEFENSE
The Cyclones underwent an impressive transformation last year going from 453 YPG allowed (#8 Big 12) in 2017 to 366 last season (#3 Big 12). They allowed a comical 67% (!) of passes to be completed but were stout vs the run (128 YPG) while achieving decent PENETRATION (26 sacks; 19 in 2017). This year they will miss the production and heart of leading tackler LB Joel Lanning but do return a pair of starters at every level of the defense. LB Marcel Spears was a 2nd Team Big 12 performer last season as was CB Brian Peavy (9 PBU, 6 TFL).
This looks like one of the best units in the conference.
SPECIAL TEAMS
The Cyclones need to break in a new PK and a new P. That can sometimes be problematic. They will also be without PR Trever Ryen who took one to the house last season.
Schedule Analysis
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Overall – It’s pretty nasty. In addition to the Big 12 slate (road dates with TCU, Oklahoma St, Texas) they take on Iowa away from home and open with a tough FCS team (South Dakota St).
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Akron (September 22). The MOTHER of all sandwich games. It comes after games with Iowa and Oklahoma and before match-ups with TCU and Oklahoma St. It’s not to say they can’t blow the doors off Akron but just keep in mind the point-spread value will almost certainly lie with the wacky Zips.
Season Win Total
Over 6.5 -120
Under 6.5 -110
Lean to the over. The docket is a challenging one but the win total is set at a pretty reasonable number.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Iowa St has been known as the Cyclones since late in the 19th century when, according to a headline in the Chicago Tribune, Northwestern was “Struck by a Cyclone” (Iowa St 36 Northwestern 0). Amaze your PSYCHO EX- GIRLFRIEND with that nugget.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 5.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the CYCLONES a 5.0 ATS Value Rating (Average) this season.
The Cyclones served notice to the rest of the Big 12 that their days of being a doormat are over for the moment. It will be interesting to see how they do
189 2018 SEASON PREVIEW when losing the element of surprise. The schedule is nasty and they move on without last season’s leading tackler and their all-time leading receiver. We will add that it is highly unlikely they go another season losing only one fumble.
All is not lost. HC Matt Campbell is a rising star and has an amazing 45-28- 2 (61.6%) record vs the point spread during his time at Toledo and Iowa St. There are some headwinds to deal with so it is probably best to begin the season on the fence from an ATS perspective.
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KANSAS
Recap Record – 1-11 ATS – 3-8-1
“Here we go again. Again.”
Kansas coughed and sputtered their way to another terrible record, this time a mark of 1-11. They took care of FCS foe SE Missouri in week one and then proceeded to lose the next 11 games in a row. There wasn’t any drama or even a close call. It was just pure flth. It seems like a century ago that the MEGALOCKS POSSE was at the Orange Bowl watching Kansas beat Virginia Tech (January 3, 2008).
Let’s examine if there are any reasons for optimism heading into 2018.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Big 12 – #10
Kansas Jayhawks 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
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Carter Stanley and Peyton Bender combined for 14 TD passes and 17 INT in 2017 and both return for duty. The starting job will likely go to Stanley and he showed a fash of potential with a big day vs Kansas St (418 yards). The RB group returns loaded with experience including #1 back Khalil Herbert who lit up Ohio for 137 yards and West Virginia for 291 (!) before being slowed by injury. The WR corps features a legit #1 WR in Steven Sims who tallied 839 yards and 6 TDs in just eight starts. The offensive line returns four starters and they did a decent job in pass protection last year allowing 29 sacks in 460 team attempts. They would like to throw the ball a lot this season but need to balance it out with a better rushing attack. They have not averaged more than 125 yards per game on the ground since 2013 (154).
DEFENSE
Kansas ranked #117 in total defense last year and allowed a grizzly 43.4 PPG (#129 FBS). There is reason to believe they can take a big step forward this year with 10 returning starters (experience almost always matters) and a pair of excellent players to rely upon (talent surely always matters). LB Joe Dineen was a 2nd Team AA (!) last year leading the team in tackles (137) and tallying a mind-boggling 25 TFL. DT Daniel Wise was a 1st Team Big 12 honoree and bagged 7 sacks (16 TFL). Our big concern is improving a pass defense that was blown to smithereens last year (69% completions, 31 TD, only 4 INT).
The starting lineup is littered with juniors and seniors and we project about a TD improvement in PPG allowed this year. More upside is possible if the offense can stay on the feld and stop turning the ball over.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Kansas boasts a ROCK CHALK solid PK in Gabriel Rui who went 23/23 on XP last year and 17/20 on FG attempts. They need to break in a new punter. The PR and KR units ranked #84 and #79 respectively last year. Feels like a mixed bag.
Schedule Analysis
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Overall – Not too bad. Playing in the competitive Big 12 is not easy but they do have a relatively soft out-of-conference schedule (Nicholls, at Central Michigan, Rutgers). They fnish the season with a horror show (at Kansas St, at Oklahoma, Texas).
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – We refuse to use sarcasm here. Nope. Not going to do it.
Season Win Total
Over 3 +115
Under 3 -145
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean to the over. They are capable of winning any of their frst four games. We can see them pulling one big upset later on in the year. It’s just hard to feel strongly about these guys given their track record.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
SIT DOWN for this nugget. The last time Kansas won a road game was back in 2009 (!).
The Jayhawks are a combined (-31) in turnover margin over the past two campaigns.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 6.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the JAYHAWKS a 6.5 ATS Value Rating (Above Average) this season.
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Here we go again. Again.
We expected a bit more out of Kansas last year and were disappointed by the way the season spiraled out of control. This team has a lot of junior and senior starters AND many of them are legit Big 12 players. It seems impossible to think they will be horrible again this year. Right?
Kansas has only had a pair of winning seasons ATS over the last 10 years. This team should be much improved and get the beneft of line value pretty much every week. If they show any signs of life in their non-conference games they could be primed to SHOCK THE WORLD at least once in Big 12 action.
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KANSAS ST
2017 Recap Record – 8-5 ATS – 7-6
The hits keep coming.
Kansas St reeled off another (yawn) winning season culminating in a bowl victory over PAC 12 foe UCLA (sans Josh Rosen). There was uncertainty at QB, an average offense (#95) and sub-par defense (#90), but they still managed to be a really annoying opponent. The Cats even took Texas (lost in 2-OT) and Oklahoma (lost by 7) to the wall.
What’s in store for Snyder’s crew this year?
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Big 12 – Tied #4
Kansas St Wildcats 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
QB Jesse Ertz was tougher than a $3 steak. The Cats move on at QB without him this season but have a pair of talented signal callers ready to do some damage.
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Alex Delton completed 58% of his passes whilst rushing for 8 TDs. Skylar Thompson hit on 61% of his passes and rushed for 3 TDs in limited action. The rushing attack is going to be nasty with the top-3 returning including Alex Barnes who ran for 819 yards and 7 TDs last season. Barnes is a legit #1 back and just needs to stay healthy to have a big year vs the SOFT UNDERBELLIES of the Big 12 defenses. We worry about the WR group given the departure of #1 man Byron Pringle who was one of the more underrated players in the Big 12 in our humble estimation. The good news is that WR Dalton Schoen averaged over 20 yards per reception. The better news relates to an offensive line line brings back all fve starters (#2 Big 12 rushing offense last season).
It’s not sexy, but it’s effective. The Cats should stroll past the 30 PPG mark again this year.
DEFENSE
Kansas St yielded over 4,000 yards passing last season. Amaze your POOL BOY with that factoid. That’s the frst thing that needs to be fxed, and it wouldn’t hurt to get more PENETRATION (22 sacks LY – 2nd last Big 12). The run defense should still be stout with 3/4 starters returning including 2nd Team Big 12 honoree DE Reggie Walker. The secondary brings back three starters as well and CB Duke Shelley had 11 PBU and a pair of INT last year. The big concern is a LB unit that undergoes a complete overhaul. The Cats’ #1 and #2 tacklers are both gone.
Kansas St almost always felds one of the best defenses in the Big 12 regardless of the number of returning starters. The DL looks solid and that makes us believe they are still an above-average stop unit.
SPECIAL TEAMS
“Ruh roh.”
Kansas St is famous for their exceptional special teams play but this season is a bit of an unknown. The entire group must be replaced including a pair of players
196 MEGALOCKS that had KR TDs and an excellent FG kicker (Matthew McCrane – 21/26 on FG LY). We are a bit skeptical even though their track record is excellent.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – Whoa. They have fve (!) Big 12 road games and get Mississippi St (at home) in non-conference action.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Kansas (November 10). I know. I know. Bill Snyder OWNS Kansas. Except for last season when they won 34-24 as 24-point favorites. Everyone on social media somehow had Kansas St -9.5 for 10 BILLION IMAGINARY TWITTER UNITS, but we digress. Kansas should be better this season and the Cats will be off road battles with Oklahoma and TCU. Kansas comes in off a home date with Iowa St. Just be careful in laying a ton of points.
Season Win Total
Over 6 -120
Under 6 -110
MEGALOCKS says:
Strong lean to the over. The Mississippi St game is nasty but the Cats are very likely to be bowl eligible.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
The closest the Wildcats have come to felding a Heisman Trophy winner was back in 1998 when QB Michael Bishop fnished 2nd in the voting (Ricky Williams RB – Texas).
Kansas St’s frst offcial playing feld was an open public square in Manhattan, Kansas (1897).
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MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 6.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the WILDCATS a 6.0 ATS Value Rating (Above Average) this season.
The Cats look like Big 12 contenders once again. They should be able to take it to teams with average (or worse) run defenses, but we worry about the ability to stop teams with good passing attacks. The September 22nd game at West Virginia should tell us a lot about the defense. It’s interesting that for the frst time in recorded history we are actually a bit worried about the special teams.
However you slice and dice it, Kansas St is almost always a good play ATS. The schedule is a bit nasty but SMOKE ON THIS, YO. HC Bill Snyder is an impossible 71-54-1 (57%) vs the point spread over the last 100 years as HC. There is a lot of focus on Texas and Oklahoma and the Wildcats will probably slip under the radar yet again.
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OKLAHOMA
2017 Recap Record – 12-2 ATS – 9-5
Now THAT was fun to watch.
Of course, we are speaking about one of the most exciting and entertaining college football games played in recent history. The Rose Bowl did not end the way that Sooners’ fans had hoped but there is no disgrace in losing in 2-OT to a team that almost (should have?) won the National Championship. And they still won the Big 12 Title.
Can they make another playoff run without all-UNIVERSE QB Baker Mayfeld?
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Big 12 – #2
Oklahoma Sooners 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
You don’t get better by losing a Heisman Trophy winning QB (Congrats MEGALOCKS FUTURES CLUB members) but the hope is that a mobile and
199 2018 SEASON PREVIEW dangerous Kyler Murray can do an excellent job. The Sooners’ offense has been comically devastating under the direction of Lincoln Riley and they were the #1 offense in college football last year (580 YPG).
The offense will be potent again with the return of star RB Rodney Anderson who tallied over 1,100 yards rushing and 18 TDs (13 rushing, 5 receiving). There is a lot of depth behind him leaving no doubt that the Sooner ground game will be excellent. The offensive line loses LT Orlando Brown (NFL – Ravens) and C Erick Wren but are still stocked with talent. The word on the street is to expect another really good Oklahoma offensive line. When Murray chooses to MATRICULATE in the passing game he can look to 1,000-yard receiver Marquise Brown and WR Ceedee Lamb (17.5 YPR). They will defnitely miss their rock at TE Mark Andrews who is also off to the NFL (Ravens).
The numbers will be down this season (they have to be down – amirite?) but we still anticipate an explosive offense that will average 40 PPG.
DEFENSE
The Sooners’ defense ranked 4th and 5th in the Big 12 the past two seasons. It’s been a while since they have been a top-notch unit. This year they lose a lot of experience (only two of the top six tacklers are back) and their best player and AA DE Ogbonnia Okoronkwo (17.5 TFL, 6 QBH) is now part of the Rams organization. They return six starters to the mix and still have a lot of highly- recruited specimens on the depth chart. MLB Kenneth Murray is an emerging star and he is just a sophomore. The CB situation looks good.
Oklahoma allowed 27.1 and 28.8 PPG the past two seasons. They should be able to improve a bit in scoring defense but the upside appears limited unless dangerous pass rushers emerge.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Oklahoma has reliable Austin Seibert to handle FG duties (17/21 LY) as well as the punting chores (37.9 net LY). The return units could use some additional spice. Neutral view on the group.
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Schedule Analysis
Overall – The Big 12 is a deep league. The out-of-conference schedule should be no problem as they get FAU, UCLA and Army at home. There is no Ohio St on the schedule like the past two years. Overall we think the dance card is favorable and they only have four true road games.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – None worth noting as we approach press time.
Season Win Total
Over 10 -125
Under 10 -105
MEGALOCKS says:
Ten wins seems about right. There are enough questions on the team to make us hesitate on taking the over. The under is also a tough sell because it’s hard (but not impossible) to see them losing three games. Parking the bus on this one for now.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
The Sooners have the longest winning streak in NCAA Division 1 college football history (47 games) (1953-1957).
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 4.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the SOONERS a 4.0 ATS Value Rating (Below Average) this season.
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Oklahoma moved like a TREMENDOUS MACHINE last year. We liked the team on paper but did not think they would be able to achieve a winning record vs the point spread. Oops. They covered a lot of big numbers thanks to a historical season from our boy Baker Mayfeld.
The Sooners are an impressive 25-15 ATS (62.5%) over the past three seasons despite being an entertaining and public team. We believe you should use a bit more caution than normal when backing Oklahoma this year as the Big 12 has some talented teams, and they will be laying yuuuuge numbers on many occasions. With more focus on the ground attack it may be more challenging to rip teams completely to pieces.
They are still one of the favorites to take down the Big 12. Boomer Sooner.
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OKLAHOMA ST
Recap Record – 10-3 ATS – 7-5-1
Mike Gundy led the Pokes to another 10-win season and got them really close to a trip to the Big 12 Championship Game. Losses to TCU and Oklahoma ultimately did them in, but boy were they fun to watch. Oklahoma St has turned into one of the most consistent programs in college football that can win at home (.776 L10Y) and on the road (.725 L10Y).
Can they rattle off another double-digit win campaign?
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Big 12 – #7
Oklahoma St Cowboys 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
It’s hard to feel good about losing a QB that threw for almost fve THOUSAND (4,904) yards and 37 TDs last year. Mason Rudolph departs as the school’s all- time leader in passing yards and is off to the NFL (Steelers). The job is up for grabs with a few intriguing options in the mix including Hawaii transfer Dru
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Brown and senior Taylor Cornelius. It remains to be seen what kind of production the Cowboys will get but we DO know that Oklahoma St has a lot of success with their starting QBs. We will be following developments closely during fall camp.
The offense has a great piece to work around in RB Justice Hill who rushed for 1,467 yards and 15 TDs in 2017. The depth behind him is very good. The WR group loses a pair (!) of 1,000 yard receivers including awesome talent James Washington (74-1,549, 13 TDs, 20.9) who was taken in the 2nd round of the NFL draft (Steelers). The good news is that the unit was comically talented last season and they can still rely on a pair of those men (Jalen McCleskey, Dillon Stoner) in 2018.
There is going to be more reliance on the run game and we worry a bit about an offensive line that returns only a pair of starters and loses two 1st Team Big 12 honorees.
DEFENSE
Things look pretty good on this side of the ball despite the loss of their two leading tacklers from last season’s stop unit. Seven starters are back and we are happy to see former Duke DC Jim Knowles added to the coaching staff. Oklahoma St has allowed 29.4, 26.5, 30.5 and 31.2 PPG the past four years and they will need to tighten things up this season given the virtual certainty of decreased offensive production.
The strength of the unit is a defensive line that features experience, size and a 2nd Team Big 12 performer in DE Jordan Brailford (10.5 TFL, 3 QBH LY). There is experience at LB but the pass defense is likely to be down a notch after leading the Big 12 in interceptions in 2017 (17).
SPECIAL TEAMS
The kicking game is in good shape with veterans at both PK and P. Matt Ammendola connected on 23/29 FG attempts last season (6/8 from 40+). The return units were poor LY (#108 PR, #112 KR).
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Schedule Analysis
Overall – It’s a tough road. They play Boise St (albeit, at home) in week three and have road dates with Kansas St, Oklahoma and TCU. The Cowboys have been really strong away from home recently but they will need to do it this year without Mason Rudolph.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Baylor (November 3). This road contest emerges in a Texas / Oklahoma sandwich, and in fact, is their easiest game on paper in the fnal fve (Texas, Oklahoma, West Virginia, TCU). Beware of laying a bundle of points.
Season Win Total
Over 8 -135
Under 8 +105
MEGALOCKS says:
Neutral view at the moment. Part of us wants to take a small taste of the under, but a potentially smarter part of us remembers that betting on Oklahoma St to have a disappointing season is usually a less-than-optimal strategy. Eight wins feels about right.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Jimmy Johnson was the coach at Oklahoma St from 1979-1983 before he left to dominate at the University of Miami, and then have a somewhat decent career in the NFL.
Mike Gundy is 3rd in head coaching tenure (Kirk Ferentz – Iowa; Gary Patterson – TCU).
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MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 4.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the COWBOYS a 4.0 ATS Value Rating (Below Average) this season.
The Cowboys are another in a long line of solid Big 12 teams. The question becomes, are they good enough to challenge for the conference title given the loss of so much offensive production? It seems to us that the smart move is to be careful and try and cherry pick the best spots with this squad. The defense should be in the top-half of the conference stats and that can’t hurt.
Mike Gundy rolls along. He is an amazing 73-51-4 (58.9%) vs the point spread over the past ten seasons and long-time readers know he is one of our favorite head coaches. It just feels like a tough ask to bag a winning ATS record this year, especially given how deep the conference is in 2018.
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TCU
2017 Recap Record – 11-3 ATS – 6-7-1
Oh, those nasty Sooners.
TCU had a fne season culminating in an Alamo Bowl victory over PAC 12 foe Stanford. The Horned Frogs have won 11+ games in three of the last four seasons. They will look back on the 2017 campaign and curse the powerful Oklahoma squad that took them down twice en route to a Big 12 Championship.
Revenge is a dish best served cold. Can TCU make another title run and deliver some payback?
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Big 12 – #1
TCU Horned Frogs 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Horned Frogs move on without THRILL HILL at QB (67%, 23 TDs LY) and the hope is that sophomore Shawn Robinson can be a dynamic leader of the
207 2018 SEASON PREVIEW offense. Robinson displayed good mobility and threw three TD passes in limited action last season. The RB group is talented and includes legit #1 Darius Anderson who rushed for almost 800 yards last year (8 TD) before missing the remainder of the season due to injury. The Frogs return #1 WR Jalen Reagor who had a great year as a true freshman (576, 8 TD, 17.5) as well as killer SLASH KaVontae Turpin who can do a bit of everything when not returning punts and kickoffs for touchdowns. Our primary concern on offense is a line that lost a pair of players to the NFL draft.
We project good but not great offensive output this season, at least until the new pieces have a chance to gel (QB, OL).
DEFENSE
Yes, guy.
The Horned Frogs have bagged 40+ sacks in each of the past two seasons and should be nasty once again even with the departure of Mat Boesen (11.5 sacks LY). The line will be fantastic with a ton of size on the inside (Frosh AA Ross Blacklock) and 1st Team Big 12 DE Ben Banogu (16.5 TFL, 7 QBH LY). Senior LB Ty Summers had over 120 tackles in 2016 but they will move on without 1st Team Big 12 honoree and leading tackler Travin Howard (NFL – Cowboys). The secondary is almost always one of the best in the conference (#1 pass effciency D Big 12 LY) and should be a rock again in 2018.
It all starts up front and the Frogs seem to have the best defense in the Big 12 on paper.
SPECIAL TEAMS
BOOM goes the DYNAMITE. Ace return man KaVontae Turpin returns for his senior campaign and is coming off a season in which he returned a punt and a kickoff for TDs. The kicking game also looks to be in good shape. TCU will probably have the best special teams in the Big 12.
Schedule Analysis
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Overall – It’s not horrible. Playing Ohio St is never fun but at least that contest is in Arlington. They get the Sooners at home.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Kansas (October 27). This game pops up in an Oklahoma / Kansas St sandwich. The last two times TCU traveled to Kansas they were life and death to win, let alone cover massive point spreads. In 2016 they won 24-23 as 4-TD favorites and in 2014 they won 34-30 as (you guessed it) 4- TD favorites.
Season Win Total
Over 7.5 -110
Under 7.5 -110
MEGALOCKS says:
Strong lean to the over. The defense should keep them in every game. There is a lot of upside if the offensive line and QB exceed expectations.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Gary Patterson is the 2nd longest tenured HC in the FBS (#1 – Kirk Ferentz, Iowa).
“TCU” won their frst game in school history defeating something called Toby’s Business College by a score of 8-6.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 5.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the HORNED FROGS a 5.5 ATS Value Rating (Slightly Above Average) this season.
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The Horned Frogs look like genuine contenders in a Big 12 conference that is more wide open than some folks will have you believe. You know they will bring defense, special teams, and elite coaching to the table. It all boils down to the production on offense. It remains to be seen how explosive and effcient they will be in 2018.
Gary Patterson has essentially a .500 mark ATS (63-64-2) over the past ten years. REGRESSION TO THE MEAN GUY will tell you that they are “due” for a rock solid season vs the point spread in light of their 9-17-1 (34.6%) ATS record over the past two campaigns. We do see some merit in that argument, if only because they will probably fy under the radar with Texas and Oklahoma (and high-fying West Virginia) drawing a lot of attention. We will still take a bit of a cautious approach given the aforementioned concerns about the offense.
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TEXAS
Recap Record – 7-6
ATS – 8-5
Hey, now.
The Longhorns achieved their frst winning season since the memorable 2013 campaign (8-5) with a Texas Bowl victory over Missouri (MEGALOCKS 887,000 STAR LASER LOCK loser). They get big marks in our books for beating a hot Tigers squad with so many players injured and bailing on the team. They started the season getting POLEAXED by Maryland at home but played good football the rest of the way considering all of their injuries. They lost on the road to USC in 2-OT and came within fve points of the Sooners.
This is year two of the Tom Herman era. You know this program is going to get really good. Will this be the year?
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Big 12 – Tied #4
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Texas Longhorns 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
It didn’t feel like a productive offense, particularly given all of the injuries they suffered, but last season’s Longhorn offense managed to roll to 398 YPG. Texas scored 29.5 points per contest and that was their second best total since 2013. Texas has a pair of capable QBs to go with this year in Sam Ehlinger and Shane Buechele who combined for 18 TD passes and 11 INT in 2017. Leading rusher Daniel Young is back (373, 3 TD) but they get a generous talent infusion with Cal transfer Tre Watson and freshman Keaontay Ingram. Texas returns their top- 2 WRs including #1 Collin Johnson (765, 14.2, 2 TDs) and also boast a bevy of talented freshmen. Our primary concern with the offense is an OL that underperformed last season, albeit they were ravaged with injuries. The prospects for the group were buoyed by the transfer of Rice LT Calvin Anderson.
We project the Horns to come in close to the 30 PPG mark this season. There is more upside than downside risk.
DEFENSE
Texas returned ten starters on defense last year and it was refected in their performance (#41). They were especially stingy vs the run (107 YPG, #8 FBS). This year they return seven starters but will have to deal with loss of their top-2 tacklers from last season’s stop unit (LB Malik Jefferson – team leader in tackles and TFL, AA S DeShon Elliott). The DL will still be stout and they feature two senior starting LB and an excellent CB in Kris Boyd (15 PBU LY). The Longhorns allowed 21.2 points per game in 2017 and we expect a similar level of success this season.
SPECIAL TEAMS
One of the most underrated departures in college football is the chasm left by star P Michael Dickson (NFL – Seattle). It looks like the Horns will go with freshmen at PK and P.
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Schedule Analysis
Overall – Tough, but not horrible. They get USC at home and their toughest road tests come vs Kansas St and Oklahoma St. They don’t have to deal with any back-to-back road contests.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Nothing of note.
Season Win Total
Over 8.5 -105
Under 8.5 -115
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean to the over. The right set of circumstances could lead to the Longhorns bagging double-digit wins. Keep in mind that it is still a bit of a leap of faith given their recent history.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Charlie Strong had the frst losing stretch as Texas HC (16-21, .432) since the immortal Jack Chevigny (.483) who led the team from 1934-1936. In fact, those are the only two men who have had losing records as HC since the program debuted in the 1890s.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 6.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the LONGHORNS a 6.0 ATS Value Rating (Above Average) this season.
It’s deja vu all over again.
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Texas gets another crack at Maryland and USC in the frst three weeks of the season before Big 12 play begins. Those games should give us a good indication of what is in store the rest of the way. The roster has a lot of talent including a pair of capable QBs and a fne head coach in Tom Herman. Can all of the raw materials FINALLY come together to deliver an excellent season? It feels like a team that needs to be respected most weeks when building your weekly betting cards. Hook ’em.
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TEXAS TECH
Recap Record – 6-7 ATS – 6-6-1
The Red Raiders started out winning four of their frst fve games but struggled mid-season losing four consecutive conference tilts. They regrouped in the regular season fnale with a win over Texas, and then took a very good South Florida team to the wall in the Birmingham Bowl (L 38-34). Sadly, that still meant a 3rd losing season in the past four campaigns.
Do they have what it takes to be a player in the competitive Big 12 this year?
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Big 12 – #9
Texas Tech Red Raiders 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Red Raiders will test the “anyone can play QB here” theory once again as they introduce a new signal caller. The starting QB duties will almost certainly be assigned to either McLane Carter (limited action last season) or sophomore Jett Duffey who brings a dual-threat ability to the table. The continuity in the passing
215 2018 SEASON PREVIEW game becomes more of a concern when you consider that the only WR with any intangible experience is sophomore TJ Vasher (29-545 18.8, 6 TD LY). The RB unit has a similar lack of proven production with Tre King being the only player on the roster with more than 100 (!) yards rushing last season. The positive? The OL brings back fve starters and should take another step forward this year.
DEFENSE
One of the more overlooked surprises in college football last year was a Texas Tech defense that improved from 554 YPG (!) and 43.5 PPG in 2016 to 444 / 32.2 last season. There is no doubt that running the football more often helped the defense stay fresh. Optimism abounds this season as ten starters return as well as their top-eight tacklers from the 2017 stop unit. Those men include 2nd Team Big 12 honorees LB Dakota Allen (102 tackles LY), DB Justus Parker (4 INT, 4 PBU LY) and S Jah’Shawn Johnson. The only missing ingredient appears to be a lack of PENETRATION (18, 14, 19 sacks L3Y).
SPECIAL TEAMS
This could be problematic. The Red Raiders were #122 last season in FG% (52.2%) and will try to improve this year with the same guys. The return game needs to reload but at least they have continuity at P.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – It’s not going to be easy to bag six wins. The out-of-conference schedule contains a “free square” in Lamar but also features games with Ole Miss and Houston.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Nothing out of the ordinary is noted.
Season Win Total
Over 6 -135
Under 6 +105
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MEGALOCKS says:
No leanage as we head to press. It’s hard to see them heading into the fnal two games (at Kansas St, Baylor at a neutral site) having more than six wins. Those two contests will not be easy. Six wins feels about right.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
After going (-42) in turnover margin the previous fve seasons, Texas Tech led the Big 12 in takeaways last year (29) and fnished (+11). They return 10 starters on defense.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 3.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the RED RAIDERS a 3.5 ATS Value Rating (Below Average) this season.
We are a bit torn at the moment. The defense made signifcant strides last season but the skill positions on offense will be undergoing almost an entire reload. There is no doubt that it helps to have a “system” in place but we can’t help but wonder about facing a tough schedule with so many new faces.
HC Kliff Kingsbury has a 30-33 win-loss record with the Red Raiders during his time as HC but he is above .500 vs Vegas. It feels like Texas Tech will be swimming upstream this year in a competitive Big 12. It’s hard to fnd an advantage that they have on paper (offense, defense, coaching, etc.) We recommend using caution when backing these guys in point spread wagers. Maybe consider the ‘under’ on totals plays? Food for thought.
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WEST VIRGINIA
Recap Record – 7-6 ATS – 6-7
The Mountaineers fnished up with a record of 7-6 but FAR outperformed that mark on the feld in our humble estimation. The teams that beat them? Virginia Tech, Utah, Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, and TCU. And they fnished the latter part of the season without their excellent QB Will Grier.
Things look pretty good heading into the 2018 campaign. Are they legitimate contenders in the Big 12?
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Big 12 – #3
West Virginia Mountaineers 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
This just in. You can’t go wrong with a Heisman Trophy contender at QB. Will Grier was fantastic last season and completed 64.4% of his passes with a 34-12 TD to INT ratio before suffering a gruesome injury vs Texas late in the season. Grier is back and has an excellent WR group at his disposal. Gary Jennings led
218 MEGALOCKS the team in receptions (97) (!) and yards (1,096) in 2017 and David Sills garnered 2nd Team AA honors whilst bagging an impossible 18 TD receptions. The primary concern on offense is dealing with the loss of back-to-back 1,000-yard rusher Justin Crawford. The good news is that the OL brings back 4/5 starters and there is some talent remaining in the RB group.
The Mountaineers averaged 34.5 PPG last season (remember, Grier was out for the fnal 2+ games) and we see them exceeding that mark provided they get decent production from the rushing attack (150 YPG, #5 Big 12 LY).
DEFENSE
The outcome of the Mountaineers’ season will boil down to the play of the defense. West Virginia yielded 27.6, 24.6, and 24.0 PPG before allowing over 30 PPG (31.5) in 2017. West Virginia only returns fve starters to the stop unit but bring back their excellent LB David Long who tallied 16.5 TFL, 6 PBU, and a pair of QBH last year. The defense was fairly disappointing last year (#106) and only achieved minimal PENETRATION (25 sacks – #72 FBS sacks per game LY). We are fans of the LB corps but are not sure about the DL and secondary (one returning starter).
SPECIAL TEAMS
The unit will be buoyed by the addition of WKU PK Skyler Simcox (16/22 FG in 2016). The rest of the unit looks acceptable.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – It’s pretty challenging. The Big 12 docket is understandably tough and they draw Tennesee and NC State in non-conference play. Also note that they fnish with a 4-PACK OF DEATH (Texas, TCU, Oklahoma St, Oklahoma).
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Nothing of note.
Season Win Total
219 2018 SEASON PREVIEW
Over 7 -150
Under 7 +130
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean to the over. The Mountaineers have won 7+ games in nine of the past ten seasons and now they have a Heisman-caliber QB at the controls.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
West Virginia has the most victories (744) of any school that has never won or claimed a national championship. Amaze your local SUBWAY SANDWICH ARTIST with that gem.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 5.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the MOUNTAINEERS a 5.0 ATS Value Rating (Average) this season.
This team is absolutely capable of winning the Big 12. In our eyes it comes down to the defense and their ability to be an “above average Big 12 unit”. If they don’t start out on SUPAH HOT FIRE the season could implode because the end of the docket is fat out nasty. Then again, if they are as good as advertised, they should be able to navigate that part of the schedule and get to the title game.
Scary news. HC Dana Holgorsen is just 37-52-1 ATS (41.6%) (!) at West Virginia. The Mountaineers consistently fail to deliver on market expectations. So while we love the upside of this squad, we have to recommend picking your spots vs the point spread.
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CONFERENCE USA
EAST DIVISION
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CHARLOTTE
2017 Recap Record – 1-11 ATS – 5-7
Yikes.
The 49ers struggled from start to fnish and only managed to bag one victory over the course of the season. The good news is that they beat a really good UAB team (25-24) that almost won the West division. It was a bit of a downer after winning three C-USA games the previous year but keep in mind this is still a very young program (2013).
Let’s fnd out if better things are in store in 2018.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
East Division – #7
Conference USA – #12
Charlotte 49ers 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
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Charlotte had immense trouble MATRICULATING in the passing game last season fnishing #119 in passing offense and #127 (!) in passing effciency. That’s not going to work unless you are Army or Navy and can punish people for 300+ yards per game on the ground. Last year’s starting QB Hassan Klugh is an excellent runner (9 TDs rushing LY) but has yet to fnd his stride throwing the football (48% completions LY). The Niners will look to Miami transfer Evan Shirreffs to lead a more balanced attack. It’s unknown what kind of talent they have at WR but the RB group appears decent and brings back their top-two rushers from last season’s unit. The offensive line did a good job in 2017 (166 rushing YPG, 22 sacks allowed) and return four starters to the mix including three seniors.
Charlotte was a HORROR SHOW on offense scoring a paltry 14.2 PPG (#127 FBS). We forecast at a TD+ improvement in 2018.
DEFENSE
Charlotte wasn’t pulverized on defense last year but they were not very strong vs the run (#13 C-USA) or the pass (#14 pass effciency D in C-USA). They only managed to bag 11 sacks in 12 games so it truly is a miracle that they only allowed 32.8 PPG. Things are looking up in 2018 as they return 10 (!) starters to the stop unit including several junior and senior players. Thirteen of their top fourteen tacklers from last season’s team return for duty including the entire starting DL and secondary. It remains to be seen how much different their performance will be this season but we feel that former Oklahoma St DC Glenn Spencer will be able to get these guys playing at a higher level.
Charlotte allowed 32.8 PPG last year (#11 C-USA) and we can see them firting with the 30 PPG mark ALTHOUGH they do face several really good offenses.
SPECIAL TEAMS
RUH ROH.
There could be trouble brewing here as they need to replace their fne P Arthur Hart (39.8 net) and their primary return men. The FG kicking was a total
223 2018 SEASON PREVIEW
GREASE FIRE last season as they made an astonishingly pathetic 30.8% of their three-point attempts (4/13). We had our SMOKING HOT CONFERENCE USA INTERNS double check that stat and it is indeed accurate.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – It’s not easy, that’s for sure. There are no BODY BAG games but they face Appalachian St, Massachusetts and Tennessee in non-conference action. And who knows what will happen in the opener vs Fordham. The division is also really deep.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Florida Atlantic (November 24). This will be the 49ers fourth road game in six weeks and it could get ugly if the season is over and done with before kickoff. Hard to imagine our boy Lane Kiffn having any mercy and they just might cover a massive number in this game.
Season Win Total
Over 3.5 +105
Under 3.5 -135
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean to the under. This team will be much improved but the schedule is a bit much to expect four or more wins.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Jerry Richardson Stadium has a capacity of just over 15,000 which makes it the smallest venue in the FBS.
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MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 5.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the 49ers a 5.0 ATS Value Rating (Neutral) this season.
There will improvement on both sides of the ball but it’s hard to anticipate how (or if) that will translate into wins and losses. Lots of other teams in the division appear to be hitting their stride so the 49ers have a bit more work to do before they can challenge for a division title.
The 49ers have been a HOT MESS vs the point spread over the past three seasons posting a mark of just 13-20-2 vs Vegas (39%) despite catching a ton of points (and “value”) on most occasions. We can see the pendulum swinging a bit in their favor this year vs the number and would not be surprised to see them SHOCK the WORLD at least once in conference play.
Go Niners!
225 2018 SEASON PREVIEW
FIU
2017 Recap Record – 8-5 ATS – 6-7
It was a solid frst season for Butch Davis as he guided the Panthers to an eight- win campaign. They got off to the best start in program history at 6-2 and then slipped a bit down the stretch losing three of their fnal fve contests. That included a 28-3 loss to Temple in the Gasparilla Bowl, but to be fair, they played almost the entire game without their starting QB.
Things are looking up. The play on feld is improving. Recruiting is going well. Can they possibly dream of taking down the division in 2018? Let’s examine.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
East Division – #5
Conference USA – #9
FIU Panthers 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
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It will be odd to see the Panthers take the feld without QB Alex McGough who retired as the program’s 2nd all-time leading passer. It’s still not clear who will take the frst snap under center but most of the SHARP ACTION appears to be backing Bowling Green transfer James Morgan as the eventual successor at QB. We will monitor the situation during fall camp. The offense will also be without their all-time leading rusher (!), the reliable Alex Gardner, but they do return their #2 and #3 RBs who combined for over 900 yards rushing and 9 TDs last year. Might as well make it a trifecta. They also move on without last season’s leading receiver Thomas Owens who had an impressive 15 YPC average whilst tallying 6 TDs. No other returning player had more than 350 yards receiving in 2017.
It’s hard to know what to expect with new faces at important positions. The best bet is to fgure a similar level of production as last season (25.6 PPG, 392 YPG).
DEFENSE
The Panthers pulled a bit of a magic trick last year winning eight games whilst allowing 28.5 PPG and 65% completions (just 23 sacks). This year they only bring back four starters, but probably have the best pair of DTs in the conference in Anthony Johnson and Tayland Humphrey (6’5 350), and LB Fermin Silva led the Panthers with 14 TFL last year. There are still more questions than answers as the entire starting secondary needs to be replaced and it is still unclear how they plan on getting more pressure on opposing QBs.
Our CONFERENCE USA SUPERCOMPUTER PROJECTION SYSTEM calls for the Panthers to allow more than 30 PPG in 2018, but less than the 2016 mark of 34.8.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Things appear to be in good shape as there is continuity across the board including the return of their fne PK Jose Borregales (15/18 FG LY).
Schedule Analysis
227 2018 SEASON PREVIEW
Overall – It’s not too bad. They have tough out-of-conference games with Miami and Indiana but also draw something called Arkansas Pine Bluff. Having Rice and UTSA on the docket is also helpful.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Massachusetts (September 15). This game falls between an important conference match-up with Old Dominion and a return trip for Butch Davis to face YOUR Miami Hurricanes.
Season Win Total
Over 5 -125
Under 5 -105
MEGALOCKS says:
No lean at the moment. The team feels like it will take a step backwards this season but the schedule has quite a few winnable games. And you should never underestimate Butch Davis. Hmm.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
FIU played in the Sun Belt from 2005-2012.
Last season was the frst winning campaign for the Panthers since 2011 when they also fnished with a mark of 8-5.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 2.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the PANTHERS a 2.5 ATS Value Rating (Poor) this season.
There are question marks on both sides of the ball and the East division is getting mighty competitive. There is upside if QB James Morgan can deal at
228 MEGALOCKS the QB position but we are still worried about the defense. We like having HC Davis in our corner but recommend you be very leery of backing the Panthers vs the point spread, at least until we see what they are all about.
229 2018 SEASON PREVIEW
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
2017 Recap Record –11-3 ATS – 10-3-1
Yes, guy.
The FIGHTING KIFFINS got off to a rocky start losing three of their frst four games and then went into BEAST MODE. The Owls crushed everything in their path down the stretch and won their fnal ten (!) games in a row including a massacre of the Akron Zips in the Boca Raton Bowl (50-3).
Should we expect more of the same in 2018? Let’s dig in.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
East Division – #1
Conference USA – #2
Florida Atlantic Owls 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
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Wow. The Owls moved like a TREMENDOUS MACHINE under the guidance of Lane Kiffn and fnished the 2017 campaign ranked #9 in total offense in the FBS (#6 rushing). They need to introduce a new QB but the good news is that last season’s signal caller (Jason Driskel) was ruthlessly effcient, but defnitely someone that can be replaced given the system and coaching in place. Oklahoma transfer QB Chris Robison is the leader in the clubhouse as far as the starting QB role is concerned and we feel confdent the production level at QB will be as good as last season with maybe a few more mistakes.
The Owls boast one of the best offensive weapons in college football in RB Devin Singletary who did close to the impossible last season bagging 32 (!!!) rushing TDs and almost 2,000 yards rushing (1,920). The man is APPOINTMENT TELEVISION and should have another big season. The WR group is talented and they have a 2nd Team C-USA TE in Harrison Bryant. The only worry on offense is a line that returns just a pair of starters and will be guided by a new OL coach.
Florida Atlantic was lights-out last season (40.6 PPG, #8 FBS) and fgure to be excellent again in 2018. We project the Owls will be among the top-3 in scoring offense in the conference but it might not be fair to expect 40 PPG. Then again…………
DEFENSE
It might have been the most overlooked improvement in college football last year. The Owls went from allowing 39.8 (!) PPG in 2016 to a mere 22.7 (!) in 2017. The defense will be one of the best in Conference USA as they return 10 starters to the stop unit including several all-conference players. The most DEVASTATING of those performers is LB Azeez Al-Shaair who was a STATS MONSTER in 2017 (147 tackles, 11 TFL, 4 QBH). The Owls allowed just 55.9% completions and were #1 in the conference with 20 INT. The entire starting secondary returns and that is great news for Owls’ fans. Florida Atlantic also bagged 38 sacks last year (#1 Conference USA) and should continue to cause trouble for opposing offensive lines and QBs.
This is one of the best defenses in the conference and an underrated unit overall.
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SPECIAL TEAMS
The Owls must break in a new PK and P this season and we expect a drop in the effciency of the kicking game. Florida Atlantic was in the top-half of the conference in PR and KR and all key players return in 2018.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – It’s diffcult. The non-conference schedule includes visits to Oklahoma (!) and UCF as well as a home date with Air Force. Their division is pretty deep.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Air Force (September 8). They need to take on the option the week after a big time test with the Sooners.
Season Win Total
Over 8.5 -105
Under 8.5 -115
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean to the over. The schedule is tough but this team looks like a serious beast once again.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
The OWLS have a DOCUMENTED undefeated record in bowl games (3-0) after destroying Akron last year. That was their frst bowl appearance since 2008.
Lane Kiffn has coached approximately 88 teams in the FBS.
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MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 5.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the OWLS a 5.5 ATS Value Rating (Slightly Above Average) this season.
Last season we SHOCKED THE PROGNOSTICATION WORLD expecting good things from the Owls vs the point spread when we penned the following; “…..We have a gut feel that the QB situation could be better than we think and the transfers on defense could make a big difference. We would be surprised if they did not gain bowl eligibility and think they can be a money maker….”
MEGALOCKS FUTURES CLUB also bagged a 20-1 (!) MONSTER calling for an FAU Conference championship.
What about 2018?
This is still a rock solid team. The divisional games are going to be tougher than last season but the Owls have more than enough talent to rip through Conference USA play again and get to the title game. From a point-spread perspective Vegas never caught up to how good this team was last season and we don’t see the same mistake being made in 2018. Value will be harder to fnd but they should still be a good bet on occasion.
HOOT HOOT.
233 2018 SEASON PREVIEW
MARSHALL
2017 Recap Record – 8-5 ATS – 9-4
The Herd got off to a great start last year (6-1) before running into a pair of Florida-based teams (FIU, FAU) that handed them defeats in conference action. They did well to come within fve points of Florida Atlantic on the road given how the Owls dismembered everything else in their path during that time. They fnished the campaign on a winning note with a victory over Colorado St in the New Mexico Bowl.
The eight-win season was a nice upgrade from the 3-9 mark in 2016. Can they take another step forward and get to the C-USA title game?
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
East Division – #3
Conference USA – Tied #4
Marshall Thundering Herd 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
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The Herd struggled last season fnishing #9 in the conference in total offense, and truth be told, that makes it a pair of consecutive seasons where they have found it diffcult to move the ball (#12 C-USA in 2016). Marshall moves on without QB Chase Litton who threw for over 3,000 yards last year whilst being very inconsistent (14 INT). The projected starting QB is Wagner grad transfer Alex Thomson who has almost 4,000 career passing yards. Whomever is under center will have some exciting targets to throw to including 1st Team C-USA honoree Tyre Brady (942, 15.2, 8 TD LY) and their #2 and #3 WRs from the 2017 squad. They will have to fnd a replacement for reliable TE Ryan Yurachek (1st Team C-USA). One under-the-radar factoid to keep in mind is that the Herd only allowed 11 (!) sacks last year.
We are really excited about the prospects for the rushing attack as the offensive line looks excellent on paper (5/5 returning starters) and the RB group is one of the deepest in the conference. Their top-two backs combined for over 1,600 (!) yards and 13 rushing TDs in 2017.
We project Marshall to have their best PPG output since the 2015 season (31.3) (LY – 26.7).
DEFENSE
Marshall was really good on defense last year (#28 FBS, #3 C-USA) and bring back nine starters to a stop unit that allowed just 19.9 PPG (#2 C-USA) while allowing just 55.6% completions and tallying 32 sacks (T2 – C-USA). The DL should be a rock and the LB corps returns all three starters including 1st Team C- USA member Chase Hancock (128 tackles, 9.5 TFL, 7 PBU LY). The secondary features a pair of 2nd Team -C-USA selections in SS Malik Gant (#2 tackler LY) and CB Chris Jackson (10 PBU, 3 INT). The man with the best name in college football is no longer part of the Herd staff (former DC Chuck HEATER).
Our CONFERENCE USA DEFENSIVE PROJECTION INSIDERS forecast Marshall to fnish #1 in total defense in the conference in 2018. Anything outside the top-3 would be a surprise. Hopefully new DC Adam Fuller can maintain the high standard set last year.
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SPECIAL TEAMS
This could be a bit of a weak spot. They need to replace their P and PK, although #1 KR Keion Davis was a weapon last year (30.4, 2 TD). Hopefully they can fgure out how to return punts (#128 LY – 1.86).
Schedule Analysis
Overall – The non-conference slate is a bit rough. They face South Carolina and NC State, and start the season with a road trip to Oxford to play the scrappy Miami Redhawks. A major positive is getting their two biggest divisional games at home (MTSU, FAU) and Marshall is a tough team to beat in Huntington under HC Doc Holliday.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Old Dominion (October 13). This game pops up right in-between the aforementioned biggies with MTSU and FAU.
Season Win Total
Over 8 -115
Under 8 -115
MEGALOCKS says:
Hmm. We like the look of this squad but eight is a fairly rich number. Pass for now.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
HC Doc Holliday is a very impressive 5-0 in bowl games.
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MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 6.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the THUNDERING HERD a 6.5 ATS Value Rating (Above Average) this season.
I f Marshall can fnd a functional QB to run the offense, look out. The defense will be a rock but the special teams might be an adventure. Hey, you can’t have everything. There is no reason to think they can’t give FAU a run for their money in the division.
Doc Holliday has a respectable record vs the point spread in his eight-year stint at Marshall (53.6%) but he has been especially SPICY over the past fve campaigns (58.7%). It’s a classic battle between REGRESSION TO THE MEAN GUY (they are DUE for a less-than-optimal season ATS) (?) and RIDE THE STREAK GUY (keep pressing, baby!) (?) We prefer to use logic when handicapping and think this team can be a money-maker once again in 2018.
WE ARE. MARSHALL.
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MTSU
2017 Recap Record – 7-6 ATS – 7-6
As per usual, it was an up-and-down and side-to-side…..and up-and-down season for the Blue Raiders. They managed to bag six wins and get to a bowl game but had no shot at the division crown once their star QB went down due to injury. Speaking of the bowl game, they beat a scrappy Arkansas St squad (35-30) in the Camellia Bowl to score their frst bowl victory since the 2009 New Orleans Bowl when they defeated Southern Miss.
Do they have the MINERALS to compete with Florida Atlantic and Marshall? We hope to have the answers below.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
East Division – #2
Conference USA – #3
MTSU Blue Raiders 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
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The Blue Raiders will be a force to be reckoned with if they can keep their excellent signal-caller Brent Stockstill from being carted off the feld on the meat-wagon on a regular basis. Stockstill is an excellent QB who runs the offense with great effciency. This season essentially all of his key targets return including 1st Team C-USA honoree Ty Lee (955, 5 TD, 79 rec LY). The entire RB unit is back and that allows them to rotate backs and attack defenses with varying skill sets. The offensive line play was average last year and they return 3/5 starters to the mix.
MTSU’s offensive production decreased from 39.7 PPG (!) in 2016 to a paltry 25.5 last year. The Blue Raiders should exceed 30 PPG without a problem in 2018. The upside is not exceptional unless another stud emerges at WR.
DEFENSE
MTSU played some fne defense last season ranking #35 in total defense (#4 C- USA, #9 C-USA in 2016) and they return nine starters to the stop unit in 2018. We are particularly excited about a front-7 that returns virtually everyone, and keep in mind that they were rock solid last season allowing just 134 YPG on the ground (#2 C-USA). They also tallied 32 sacks. There is experience and talent at every level of the defense and they feature LB Khalil Brooks who is coming off a great season (17 TFL, 6 QBH; 2nd Team C-USA).
The Blue Raiders’ defense is one of the best in C-USA and might even improve a bit statistically in many categories compared to last season (!).
SPECIAL TEAMS
This feels like a mixed bag. They have continuity at PR, KR and P this season but lose their excellent PK Canon Rooker who nailed 14/17 FG attempts last season.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – It’s fat out nasty. In their frst four games they have road tilts with two SEC opponents (Vanderbilt, Georgia) and a home date with JUGGERNAUT
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Florida Atlantic. Oh, and the next game is a road trip to WE ARE MARSHALL. They fnish the season with a road test at Kentucky and have SEVEN away games from start to fnish. We need to get MEGALOCKS SCHEDULE- MAKING HUMAN RESOURCES INSIDERS to fre whoever cobbled together this docket.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at FIU (October 13). This game is a double-let- down spot after big games with FAU and Marshall.
Season Win Total
Over 7 +105
Under 7 -135
MEGALOCKS says:
Neutral view at the moment. We are torn because we think the Blue Raiders will be a really good team but not sure if they can bag eight wins (see schedule notes above). Need to think about this one a bit longer.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
The nickname “Blue Raiders” comes from the winning contest entry back in the 1930s. Amaze the table at your next FAMILY PICNIC with that trivia noodle.
MTSU has not had a “+” turnover margin since 2013 (-22 combined from 2014- 2017).
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 6.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the BLUE RAIDERS a 6.0 ATS Value Rating (Above Average) this season.
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The Blue Raiders look to have a really solid squad ready to take the feld in 2018. If they can keep the QB in one piece they are a threat to win every game with that defense, aside of course, from the trip to Georgia. We aren’t sure how all their talent will translate to the win-loss column but we are fairly certain they will prevail vs the point spread over the course of the campaign.
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OLD DOMINION
2017 Recap Record – 5-7 ATS – 4-8
Hiccup.
The Monarchs blasted their way to a ten-win season in 2016 but came back down to earth last season having their win total cut in half. They started out winning the frst pair of games but then hit the skids losing six straight (four conference tilts). They kept battling and needed a win in their fnal contest to get the “magical 6th win” needed for bowl eligibility but fell to MTSU (L 41-10).
The Monarchs bring an experienced team to the table in 2018. Do they have what it takes to be a spoiler in the tough C-USA East?
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
East Division – #4
Conference USA – #7
Old Dominion Monarchs 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
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Things are going to be diffcult when you start a 17 (!) year-old true freshman QB. The Monarchs struggled in the passing game (#111 FBS) but QB Steven Williams got better down the stretch and should take a big step forward this year given his athleticism and experience gained in 2017. The rushing attack will be without the program’s all-time leading rusher (Ray Lawry) but hope that senior Jeremy Cox (621, 4 TD LY) can emerge as the new #1 back. It’s hard to know what the Monarchs have at WR given the struggles at QB last season but they do return their top-two receivers (Isaiah Harper – 462, Travis Fulgham – 394). The best news is an offensive line that returns 5/5 starters and has decent size.
Old Dominion put up just 20.7 PPG LY (#11 C-USA) and we expect a bit more production this year. It’s hard to project a signifcant increase as it remains to be seen how much improvement QB Steven Williams will make in 2018.
DEFENSE
The Monarchs took a step backwards on defense in 2017 fnishing #92 in total defense (#104 rush D, #94 pass effciency D). There is good news on the horizon as the DL returns a PAIR of 1st Team C-USA honorees (Miles Fox, Oshane Ximines) who combined for 23 TFL and 8 QBH last year. The top two tacklers from last season’s stop unit both return at LB and they paired up for 181 tackles. The Monarchs were just #10 in the conference in pass effciency defense last year after fnishing #4 in 2016 (10-win season).
The Monarchs should be improved on defense this season especially if they can maintain the level of PENETRATION demonstrated recently (31, 34 sacks L2Y).
SPECIAL TEAMS
Yes, guy.
Old Dominion brings back a solid kicking game and boast the electric Isaiah Harper who returned three kickoffs for TDs in 2017.
Schedule Analysis
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Overall – It’s favorable. They have to face the Hokies which will probably not go well but they start and end the season with relatively easy games (at Liberty, FIU, at Charlotte to start the season; fnish with VMI, Rice).
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Western Kentucky (October 20). This will be their 4th road game in six weeks and they have a potentially yuuuuge game with MTSU on October 27th.
Season Win Total
Over 5.5 -140
Under 5.5 +110
MEGALOCKS says:
Strong lean to the over. The Monarchs should be able to get to a bowl game.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
It’s time for another edition of MEGA HISTORY……..Gather around the campfre.
Old Dominion played football for ten seasons (1930-1940) before the program was discontinued. Things were restarted in 2009 and they joined Conference USA in 2014.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 6.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the MONARCHS a 6.5 ATS Value Rating (Above Average) this season.
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We missed the mark last year and did not see these guys having such a rough year both straight-up and against the spread. This year the defense will be good and the offense line and improved QB play should help these guys get to a bowl game.
The Monarchs are 12-12-1 ATS over the past two campaigns and we would be surprised if they did not end up with more wins than losses vs Vegas.
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WESTERN KENTUCKY
2017 Recap Record – 6-7 ATS – 4-9
That THUD you heard was the sound of the Hilltoppers’ second sub-.500 season this decade (2-10 in 2010). All good things must come to an end. They have had a pretty nice run over the past number of years but couldn’t do much damage last season. The hi-light of the season was probably the 3-OT win over MTSU near the end of the campaign.
Can the Toppers sneak up on the division in 2018?
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
East Division – #6
Conference USA – #11
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
Yikes.
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Western Kentucky’s scoring production took a NOSE DIVE to 25.5 PPG (T8 C- USA) after averaging 44+ PPG (!) for three consecutive seasons. QB Mike White threw for over 4,000 yards but the offense was inhibited by some of the worst offensive line play seen since the early 1800s. The Toppers gave up 48 sacks (!) (#129 FBS) and managed just 61 yards rushing per game (dead last FBS). This year new QB Drew Eckels will do his best to keep the offense moving but the offensive line returns just one starter from the 2017 unit. That may be a good thing. Maybe not. The RB unit appears to have some depth so hopefully they can achieve a bit more balance on offense. The passing game will be without two of their top three wide receivers from last season’s squad as well as 3rd Team C- USA TE Deon Yelder.
We fnd it hard to imagine WK making much improvement on offense this season, although we suppose anything is possible.
DEFENSE
Western Kentucky did a decent job on defense last year (#6 total defense C- USA) despite bagging just 12 sacks in 13 games. This season they bring back seven starters to the stop unit including 6/7 top tacklers from the 2017 squad. The interior of the DL has some good size and CB DeAndre Farris tallied 14 PBU last season. We also note that the Toppers allowed just 11 TD passes in 2017 which ranked them #1 in the conference. It’s hard to see the defense taking a big leap forward but they should be at least an average C-USA defense in 2018.
SPECIAL TEAMS
There is a reload required in the return units but they return their PK and P who performed at an average level last season.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – Do not let children anywhere near the TV set when they play Wisconsin in week one. They also make road trips to Louisville and a sneaky Ball St squad in non-conference play. The divisional games will all be dogfghts with the exception of the game at Charlotte. Then again……?
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Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Ball St (September 22). This game pops up after a heated battle with Louisville and before a date with divisional rival WE ARE MARSHALL.
Season Win Total
Over 5 -140
Under 5 -110
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean to the under. This team is going to struggle to reach bowl eligibility. We were hoping for a 5.5 or 6. Argh.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Behold a mission for loyal MEGALOCKS readers and research entrepreneurs, should you choose to accept it. Find another team in history that had a total of “13” when subtracting sacks allowed (48) from rushing yards per game (61). That might be a tougher record to break that DiMaggio’s hitting streak.
Western Kentucky suffered their frst bowl loss and WON their frst bowl game vs the same team (Central Michigan). Amaze your STALKER EX- GIRLFRIEND with that beauty.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 1.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the HILLTOPPERS a 1.5 ATS Value Rating (Avoid) this season.
There appears to be a tough road ahead for Western Kentucky. Even if they escape without getting two-thirds of their team injured vs Wisconsin in week
248 MEGALOCKS one, the rest of the schedule provides very few breaks. This program will be back but we don’t think this is the year for a big turnaround.
We recommend avoiding the Hilltoppers against the spread unless they show early on that they are much better than advertised.
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CONFERENCE
WEST DIVISION
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LOUISIANA TECH
2017 Recap Record – 7-6 ATS – 7-6
The Bulldogs had an inexperienced team last year and did well to bag six wins during the regular season and fnish with a MASSACRE of SMU in the Frisco Bowl (51-10) (MEGALOCKS 998 STAR SOMEWHAT RARE 2017 BOWL WINNER). You know we love us some Skip Holtz, and now he has a much more experienced and talented team to take on the best in Conference USA.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Conference USA – Tied #4
West Division – #2
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Bulldogs were not their usual explosive selves on offense last season. They still scored 30.5 PPG (#3 C-USA) but we look for more improvement in 2018 now that QB J’Mar Smith has a full season of experience under his belt. Smith threw for almost 3,000 yards last season with a decent 16-5 TD to INT ratio in
251 2018 SEASON PREVIEW his frst full season as the starter. He also displayed good mobility and rushed for 6 TDs. When Smith chooses to MATRICULATE down the feld in the passing game he can look forward to fnding the top-two receivers from last year’s team including 2nd Team C-USA selection Teddy Veal (74-950, 12.8, 7 TD LY). The running game is a fairly signifcant concern as they lose their top-two RBs that accounted for over 1,500 yards and 11 TDs in 2017. The offensive line play is usually pretty good and they return 4/5 starters to the mix.
DEFENSE
The Bulldogs were adequate on defense in 2017 but were a bit disappointing vs the run (177 YPG, #9 C-USA) and only managed 24 sacks after bagging 44 (!) in 2016. We expect good things this season as they bring back their star DE Jayon Ferguson (1st Team C-USA) as well as excellent CB Amik Robertson who had a freshman season to remember (2nd Team C-USA, 7.5 TFL, 6 PBU, 5 INT LY). The Bulldogs yielded less than 26 PPG for the frst time since 2014 (24.7) and we can see them improving a bit this season AND getting more PENETRATION from the front seven.
SPECIAL TEAMS
There a couple of key pieces to replace this year. PK Jonathan Barnes hit 25/33 (!) FG attempts last year and they need to fnd a new LS.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – It’s diffcult. Somebody is mad at these guys because they have seven road games that include trips to LSU, North Texas, FAU, Mississippi St and Southern Miss.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at UTSA (October 13). This smells like the classic triple-letdown spot as the Bulldogs will have just fnished a three-game stretch at LSU, at North Texas and home to UAB. Those tilts vs the Mean Green and Blazers will likely decide their fate in the Conference USA race.
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Season Win Total
Over 7 +100
Under 7 -130
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean to the over at press time. The schedule is nasty but we can see this team mowing down almost everyone other than their SEC foes. Eight wins will not be easy but it’s more likely than six or fewer in our humble opinion.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Last season the Bulldogs lost a seemingly impossible three games by a SINGLE POINT during a six-game stretch.
Louisiana Tech is a combined (+31) in turnover margin the past four seasons.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 6.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the BULLDOGS a 6.0 ATS Value Rating (Above Average) this season.
Louisiana Tech defnitely has a team that can win the division, and then who knows? They will need to fnd an improved rushing attack AND rushing defense to really make some noise. Dedicated MEGALOCKS readers know that we are big fans of Skip Holtz who has rattled off an impressive 33-21 (61%) (!) record vs the point spread over the past four seasons. The Bulldogs almost always fy under the radar so it seems logical to presume these guys will be a decent bet on many occasions.
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NORTH TEXAS
2017 Recap Record – 9-5 ATS – 8-6
Whoa. We did not see that coming.
North Texas gets full marks for reeling off a nine-win season and making it to the conference title game. They won some close games to be sure, but you cannot discount the fact that they achieved their frst winning season since 2013 (9-4). Who knows what could have happened if they didn’t allow 110 (!) points in two games to the FIGHTING KIFFINS of Florida Atlantic.
One has to wonder if they have what it takes to be contenders once again in 2018.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Conference USA – #6
West Division – #3
North Texas Mean Green 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
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Check this out, yo. North Texas improved from 15.2 PPG in 2015, to 24.8 PPG in 2016 to a whopping 35.5 PPG in 2017. The offense has made some fne strides under HC Seth Littrell and OC Graham Harrell (Texas Tech fame) and looks to be potent again in 2018. QB Mason Fine was the C-USA OPOY last season after passing for over 4,000 (!) yards and 31 TDs. Fine threw too many picks (15) and that contributed to the Mean Green’s dismal turnover margin (-11). The WR unit is loaded and they bring back their top-three that accounted for over 2,200 yards receiving and 20 (!) TDs in 2017.
The rushing attack may take a step backwards without the reliable Jeffery Wilson who banked over 1,200 yards and 16 TDs on the ground last year. It’s a good thing that the OL returns 4/5 starters but they did allow an annoying 39 sacks in 2017 (2nd last C-USA LY). It seems reasonable to expect a similar level of offensive production (really good) this season.
DEFENSE
The defense really took its lumps last year when facing the better offenses on their schedule. They gave up over 800 (!) yards in a single game to FAU and were ripped to shreds by Troy (when they were actually trying to score) in the New Orleans Bowl (50 points allowed). We expect some improvement in the stop unit this year as they bring back eight starters and have decent talent at all three levels. They will welcome a healthy Bryce English to the DL and return last season’s leading tackler LB EJ Ejiya (109 tackles, 12 TFL, 4 QBH LY). The secondary has a bevy of experience and are almost certain to improve on last season’s 24-8 TD to INT ratio.
The Mean Green allowed 35.0 PPG last season and we project a total closer to 30 PPG in 2018.
SPECIAL TEAMS
North Texas will not have their robot-like PK Trevor Moore to count on this year (20/22 FG attempts LY) but they do get the beneft of transfer PK Cole Hedlund from Arkansas. The return units look to be in good shape.
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Schedule Analysis
Overall – It should be smooth sailing. The have to deal with Arkansas on the road but also get SMU, Incarnate Word (wut?) and Liberty in non-conference action. Their bye week comes at a good time (November 3rd) before the fnal three games of the campaign which are all conference match-ups.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Liberty (September 22). Don’t laugh. This lay- up needs to be dealt with after a road date with Arkansas (North Texas will try and SHOCK the WORLD) and before a yuuuuuuge game with Louisiana Tech.
Season Win Total
Over 8 -110
Under 8 -140
MEGALOCKS says:
No lean at the moment. Eight wins feels about right. The schedule looks pretty manageable but it’s hard to count on this defense to support a 9+ win season.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
The only Mean Green NFL Hall of Fame inductee was the great “Mean” Joe Greene.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 5.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the MEAN GREEN a 5.0 ATS Value Rating (Average) this season.
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The Mean Green are defnite contenders in the C-USA West division. The offense will keep rolling and it will be up to the defense to hold the fort. It would also be helpful if they could do a better job of taking care of the football. HC Seth Littrell has posted back-to-back winning seasons vs the point spread (15-12 over two seasons) and we think that people may be wise to the fact that these guys can score points. Neutral view for now. Pick your spots.
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RICE
2017 Recap Record –1-11 ATS – 4-8
It’s probably fair to call it a GREASE FIRE.
The Owls took down the mighty UTEP Miners in week two and then failed to win another game the rest of the season. There weren’t a lot of close calls to brag about either. Bad things happen when you score 16.3 PPG and allow 35.8 PPG whilst fnishing with a (-23) turnover margin.
A new season begins with a new coaching staff. On to 2018.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
West Division – #6
Conference USA – #13
Rice Owls 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
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The Owls cobbled together a decent rushing attack last year (187 YPG, #38 FBS) but were subject to really bad QB play (#121 passing effciency). That made it impossible to stay competitive in pretty much every game. The starting QB gig will likely fall in the hands of Jackson Tyner (6’5, laser rocket arm) but we will keep a close watch during fall camp. The rushing attack might be in decent shape with their top-two RBs from last year’s squad back for duty (Nahshon Ellerbe, Emmanuel Esukpa; 7 rushing TDs combined LY). They also have a legit #1 WR in Aaron Cephus who averaged a WICKED 24.9 yards per reception in 2017. The offensive line is a concern as they need to learn a new system and only return a pair of starters. The new system? Think Stanford.
DEFENSE
The Owls’ defense was pretty awful last season BUT you must consider that the offense didn’t help matters much by turning the ball over 29 (!) times (#125 FBS). They got a surprising amount of PENETRATION (28 sacks) in 2017 but still made it way too easy on opposing offenses (69.7% completions, only six turnovers forced). This year they move to a 4-3 confguration and have a new DC in Brian Smith who was the DB coach at Michigan last season. They only have fve returning starters but there are a few nice pieces to speak of including DT Roe Wilkins (6.5 sacks LY) and senior MLB Martin Nwakamma.
The Owls allowed 35.8 PPG last season and we can see a small improvement this year based on the new offense (more ball control, less turnovers) and better coaching (?) on defense.
SPECIAL TEAMS
RUH ROH.
Check this out, yo. Rice made THREE feld goals the entire season. Yup, that happened. Suffce to say, it’s hard to know what to expect in the FG department. Everyone else returns to the group so we suppose that is a good thing. The jury is still out.
Schedule Analysis
259 2018 SEASON PREVIEW
Overall – There are thirteen games on the docket so keep that in mind if you are placing some SWEET ACTION on their season win total. There are a small handful of winnable games.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Hawaii (September 8th). The Owls need to travel to the LAND OF QUESTIONABLE OFFICIATING after playing a game with in-state opponent Houston.
Season Win Total
Over 3.5 +100
Under 3.5 -135
MEGALOCKS says:
Neutral stance for now. They play 13 (!) games and defnitely have some winnable ones. Hmm. Over?
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Amaze the STRANGELY ATTRACTIVE FOREIGNER you met on TINDER with this trivia gem. Rice has not beaten an FBS team other than UTEP or Charlotte since half-way through the 2015 (!) season (Army).
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 3.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the OWLS a 3.5 ATS Value Rating (Below Average) this season.
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People who are in the KNOW come to MEGALOCKS for their Rice-related predictions. Last season we went out on a limb and predicted a sub-par season vs Vegas. What do we think this year?
It’s not rocket science. This is a rebuilding year and there will be some bumps in the road. Having said that, Vegas will take that into account, and it seems automatic that the Owls will be offering “value” vs the point spread on many occasions. Of course, “value” means less than a hole in a doughnut if you can’t deliver.
We recommend avoiding the Owls on most occasions but do NOT go into full FADE MODE.
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SOUTHERN MISS
Recap Record – 8-5 ATS – 8-5
Southern Miss had a pretty good under-the-radar season fnishing the campaign at 8-4 before getting blown out by Florida St in the Independence Bowl. They managed to bag some quality conference road wins (UTSA, Louisiana Tech, Marshall) but were ultimately done in by losses to North Texas and UAB.
Should the Golden Eagles be considered a longshot player in the C-USA West?
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
West Division – #4
Conference USA – #8
Southern Miss Golden Eagles 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Golden Eagles had a balanced attack last year (#41 FBS rushing, #55 receiving) and come into this season with a pair of good options at QB. Both Kwadra Griggs and Keon Howard had some good moments under center,
262 MEGALOCKS although Griggs was a bit more reliable (16-2 TD to INT). The offense is going to miss RB Ito Smith who was not only a MEGALOCKS favorite, but the key to the offense AND the program’s 2nd all-time leading rusher. Smith had a monster senior campaign rushing for over 1,400 yards and 13 TDs while grabbing 40 receptions. They will also be without their top-two WRs from last season’s squad including 1st Team C-USA member Korey Robertson (1,106, 12 TD).
Where will the production at RB and WR come from this season? It’s hard to say because they have no returning players that tallied more than 350 yards receiving or 300 yards rushing in 2017. The offensive line is going to play a yuuuuge role in the offensive output given the departure of talent. They return three starters to the mix and did a good job with run blocking and pass protection last year. Southern Miss was #3 in total offense in C-USA last season (425 YPG) and we see them taking a step backwards to the middle of the pack in 2018.
DEFENSE
Southern Miss had the #2 defense in the conference last season but only return four starters to the stop unit this year. They only return three of their top eight tacklers but it’s good to know that LB Paxton Schrimsher is one of those players (11 TFL LY). The front-seven looks decent but the big question is a secondary that returns no starters (!) from a season ago. Southern Miss has been really strong vs the pass over the past three seasons (52.5%, 54.5%, 55.1% completions allowed) and it remains to be seen how quickly the new faces can gel into a productive secondary. It’s fair to assume that the defense will not be as strong statistically as they were in 2017.
SPECIAL TEAMS
We have some good news. The kicking game is in great shape with 1st Team PK Parker Shaunfeld returning for duty (17/20 FG LY, 4/4 from 40+ yards) as well as P Zac Everett and both KRs.
Schedule Analysis
263 2018 SEASON PREVIEW
Overall – It’s not too bad. They don’t have to deal with back-to-back road games but have a BODY BAG game (at Auburn) and a tricky trip to play Appalachian St.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Rice (September 22). The Owls will likely be beyond horrible BUT this game falls between the aforementioned games with the Tigers and Mountaineers. Southern Miss will be laying a ton of points (3-7 ATS as home favorite under HC Hopson) and Rice comes in off a bye (albeit, via Hawaii).
Season Win Total
Over 6.5 +105
Under 6.5 -135
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean to the under. There are a few FREE SQUARES on the docket but seven wins would be a good regular season.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
The Golden Eagles’ last C-USA title was back in 2011 when they were led by current UNC HC Larry Fedora.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 2.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the GOLDEN EAGLES a 2.0 ATS Value Rating (Poor) this season.
The Golden Eagles appear to be facing some serious headwinds. They bring an inexperienced squad to the table and have to deal with some pretty good
264 MEGALOCKS competition in their division. There is some upside if the defense holds steady and they develop new skill position stars. It just seems like a lot to ask. We advise avoiding the Golden Eagles vs the point spread on most occasions, but as always, reconsider this stance if they are better than advertised.
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UAB
2017 Recap Record – 8-5 ATS – 8-4-1 Now THAT was impressive.
UAB returned from a two-year hiatus and nearly took down the Conference USA West title. They rattled off eight wins during the regular season which included victories over Louisiana Tech, MTSU and Southern Miss. Not bad! The Blazers bring a talented and experienced roster to the table in 2018.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
West Division – #1
Conference USA – #1
UAB Blazers 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
UAB averaged 27.8 PPG last season (#5 C-USA) and fgure to be more potent this year with the return of their fne senior QB AJ Erdely who threw 16 TD passes last year while rushing for another 13 (!). Erdely was also very careful with the football and only tossed 4 INT in 338 attempts. The Blazers bring back
266 MEGALOCKS almost their entire WR and TE groups in 2017 and should be able to top last season’s 181 YPG through the air. The real treat in the offense is sophomore RB Spencer Brown who LIT IT UP last season as a freshman rushing for 1,329 yards and 10 TDs (2nd Team C-USA). The offensive line performed reasonably well last season paving the way for 4.5 yards per carry whilst allowing only 23 sacks. The Blazers should be able to exceed 30 PPG this year.
DEFENSE
The Blazers were ranked an impressive #41 in the FBS in total defense and they were particularly stingy vs the pass (#2 C-USA pass effciency D; 18-14 TD to INT, 52.1%). This year they return seven starters to the mix but will defnitely miss leading tackler Tevin Crews (2nd Team C-USA) and 4th Team AA (!) CB Darious Williams (15 PBU, 5 INT LY). They have talent at every level of the defense and just need to fnd a way to get more PENETRATION (19 sacks, #11 C-USA LY) in order for the defense to take a step forward.
SPECIAL TEAMS
The Blazers were pretty average across the board last year and bring back all key members from the 2017 team. Our primary concern is with the punting unit (#126 FBS net punting, 3 blocked). This still might be a bit of a problem area.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – It looks mighty tasty. Aside from the late season road game at Texas A&M the docket looks like an easy one to navigate. Their frst four games are Savannah St, at Coastal Carolina, Tulane and Charlotte.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Nothing of note.
Season Win Total
Over 7.5 +105
Under 7.5 -135
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MEGALOCKS says:
Strong lean to the over. They should defnitely get off to a hot start and getting to eight wins does not seem like a reach.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
UAB plays at the VENERABLE Legion Field. MEGALOCKS 80,000 STAR LATE PHONE RELEASE BOWL GAME TRAVEL SQUAD made a special trip there in 1990 to watch someone called BRETT FAVRE play in his fnal college game. He was named MVP despite the fact that Southern Miss lost to NC State 31-27.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 5.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the BLAZERS a 5.5 ATS Value Rating (Slightly Above Average) this season.
The Blazers are primed for another run at the West division crown. The offense has all the key pieces in place and it’s a balanced and well-coached team, notwithstanding a few holes on defense and special teams. The also have the softer side of Conference USA to compete against.
HC Bill Clark did a fne job last season and there is no reason to expect anything other than another successful campaign. It may be harder to fnd value with these guys vs the point spread, but maybe, just maybe, DEGENERATE NATION has not caught on to the fact that these guys are pretty good.
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UTEP
2017 Recap Record – 0-12 ATS – 2-9-1
That was fun to watch.
The Miners coughed and sputtered their way through the 2017 campaign and did not show a single victory for their efforts. There is not much to say other than that. Ok, maybe one more thing. They only stayed with single digits on one occasion, a 15-14 STEEL CAGE MATCH with Western Kentucky in which they lost by a single point.
What can we expect this year under the direction of new HC Dana Dimel.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
West Division – #7
Conference USA – #14
UTEP Miners 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
269 2018 SEASON PREVIEW
The Miners will be switching up the offense for what feels like the sixth time in the last four years. HC Dimel likes the spread attack and hopefully JC transfer Kai Locksley can do an adequate job in year one. There are other players in the mix including Ryan Metz who got quite a bit of action last season but he only completed 48.5% (3-6 TD to INT) of his attempts. The top-two RBs are back (Joshua Fields, Quardraiz Wadley) but neither man cracked the 400-yard mark last year. The offensive line only returns a pair of starters and they will be without one of the best offensive linemen in program history (Will Hernandez) who was selected in the 2nd round of the NFL draft (Giants). The leading returning receiver only bagged 224 (!) yards in 2017.
The Miners were dead last in the FBS in scoring offense (11.8 PPG) and total offense (231 YPG). They will be better this season but we fnd it hard to see them cracking the the 20 PPG mark.
DEFENSE
The Miners allowed 36.8 PPG last year (#119 FBS scoring defense) and need to get things cleaned up on the defensive side of the ball. They could start by getting more PENETRATION as they managed to tally a mere 11 sacks last season (tied for 2nd-last FBS LY) and 14 in 2016 (#118).
This year they return six starters to the stop unit but lose their top four (!) tacklers including #1 tackler and 1st Team C-USA LB Alvin Jones. They switch to a 4-2- 5 defense and do have a few decent pieces to work with this season. S Kahani Smith is a solid player and they have a pair of senior CBs (combined 16 PBU LY). The DL gets the addition of Kansas St transfer DE CJ Reese.
We forecast the Miners fnishing close to their 2015 production level of 32.9 PPG (slight improvement).
SPECIAL TEAMS
The kick returners did a decent job LY but the the punt returns can use some improvement. They will move on without their reliable P Alan Luna (38.1 net) and need to fgure out how to make a feld goal as they were tied for last in the
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FBS last year with just THREE (!) three-pointers (3/7 on the season). Special teams needs some work, yo.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – It’s not too bad at all. The non-conference slate only has one (likely) unwinnable game (at Tennessee) and they play in the weaker half of the conference.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Nothing specifc to note.
Season Win Total
Over – 2.5 +115
Under – 2.5 -145
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean to the over at 2.5 and plus money. They are going to be bad BUT three wins is not too much to ask for in Conference USA and the schedule gives them hope.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
UTEP has lost six straight bowl games and last tasted bowl victory in the 1967 Sun Bowl when they beat Ole Miss 14-7. We still remember that fateful holding call in the 2nd quarter.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 2.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the MINERS a 2.5 ATS Value Rating (Poor) this season.
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It’s a rebuilding year for the Miners but we believe the product on the feld will be improved. Of course the question becomes, how will that translate into wins and losses? Dana Dimel has a 30-39 career record as HC (Wyoming, Houston) but has some good experience to fall back on from his time at Kansas St. It won’t happen overnight but we believe (and hope) that the Miners will be a lot more competitive in the near future.
The Miners were a horrible 2-9-1 ATS last season. They are going be large underdogs on many occasions, and while we recommend staying clear of the Miners for the most part when building your weekly cards, keep in mind that point spreads will almost certainly be shaded in favor of UTEP backers.
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UTSA
2017 Recap Record – 6-5 ATS – 4-7
The Roadrunners got off to a great start with a SHOCK the WORLD moment beating Baylor on the road as more than 2-TD underdogs. In fact, they started out 3-0 but only managed to bag three more wins in their fnal eight games. They were bowl eligible but not selected for post-season action.
There are a lot of new faces on board this year. Let’s see if we can fgure out what to expect.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
West Division – #5
Conference USA – #10
UTSA Roadrunners 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Roadrunners move on without reliable QB Dalton Sturm who had a quietly effcient season last year. Sturm completed 62% of his passes and had a
273 2018 SEASON PREVIEW respectable 15-5 TD to INT ratio whilst rushing for over 500 yards in his spare time. The QB situation is a big black hole as they need to decide between an extremely inexperienced group of signal callers. We will follow the situation closely during fall camp, but our UTSA QB BATTLE INSIDERS tell us that sophomore Bryce Rivers may be a SURPRISE PACKAGE given his play during the spring. Whomever wins the battle, it is clear that new OC Al Borges is going to have some work to do. The top-3 receivers from last season’s team are gone and it remains to be seen what kind of talent is left in the cupboard. Leading rusher Jalen Rhodes is back in the mix at RB (659, 5 TD LY) but there is no proven depth behind him in the unit. The offensive line has some decent size but only returns a pair of starters.
UTSA ranked #8 in the conference in total offense last season (387 YPG) and we forecast a signifcant drop in production this season.
DEFENSE
Wow. UTSA put on a freaking SHOW on defense last year allowing just 17.0 PPG (#8 FBS) and 288 YPG (#5 FBS). Needless to say, they were the best stop unit in the conference in 2017, but must now fgure out how to keep the performance level high with just six returning starters. The massive loss is the C- USA DPOY DE Marcus Davenport who tallied 17.5 TFL and 8 QBH in 2017. The DL should still be stout with 2nd Team C-USA DT Kevin Strong back for duty along with a pair of other former starters. The LB unit should be fne but we worry about a secondary that was AMAZING last season (49% completions allowed, #2 FBS) and only returns one starter from the 2017 group.
The Roadrunners are powerless to stop a decrease in statistical measures on defense given how great they were last season. We still project an average (or above-average) unit to take the feld in 2018.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Yes, guy.
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The Roadrunners are in great shape here with a solid PK Jared Sackett (19/22 FG LY) and 2nd Team C-USA honoree Yannis Routsas at P. They also return their KRs (#5 C-USA LY) but could use better performance from their punt returners.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – Yikes. They have tough out-of-conference road tilts with Arizona St and Kansas St and need to face some of the better teams in the division away from home (Marshall, UAB, Southern Miss).
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Nothing specifc noted.
Season Win Total
Over 5 -110
Under 5 -120
MEGALOCKS says:
Strong lean to the under. It’s hard to see these guys getting to six wins without another out-of-this-world performance from the defense.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
DE Marcus Davenport became the Roadrunners’ frst ever frst round NFL draft pick this spring (New Orleans). Good luck in the NFL, Marcus!
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 3.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the ROADRUNNERS a 3.0 ATS Value Rating (Below Average) this season.
275 2018 SEASON PREVIEW
Yup, it feels like a year to reload. It’s hard to see the offense causing too many problems, athough it’s fair to assume that the defense may be better than expected. HC Wilson has a 12-12 record in two seasons with the Runners and that is pretty good considering they had a record of 7-17 in the two years before he arrived in San Antonio.
Wilson has a .500 record vs the point spread during his tenure and it will likely be a challenge to keep his overall record in the black given all the new faces. The bonus for UTSA backers is that this team is not usually top-of- mind with bettors and you may be able to fnd some value during the season. We prefer to take a very cautious stance as we approach post time. Meep Meep !
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INDEPENDENTS
277 2018 SEASON PREVIEW
ARMY
2017 Recap Record – 10-3 ATS – 6-7
Yes, guy.
Army has gone from a 10-loss team in 2015 to a 10-WIN squad after the excellent 2017 season that culminated in wins over Navy and San Diego St (Armed Forces Bowl). The Black Knights appear to have emerged as a legitimate football program which is fantastic! The question becomes, can they sustain the high level of play for a long stretch of time like their arch-rivals at Navy?
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Independents – #2
Army West Point Black Knights 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
Army has really risen to the occasion the past two seasons averaging 29.9 and 30.7 points per game whilst fnishing #1 in rushing offense last year (362 YPG) and #2 in 2017 (340 YPG). The trick this year will be doing it without their
278 MEGALOCKS amazing leader QB Ahmad Bradshaw who rushed for over 1,700 (!) yards in 2017, led the team to back-to-back wins over Navy and bagged 18 wins as a starter over the past two campaigns. It’s a mixed and unknown bag heading into fall camp and our ARMY INSIDERS say that the starting QB gig is still up for grabs. We will monitor the situation over the summer.
The RB unit is loaded with the return of Darnell Woolfolk (14 TD LY), Kell Walker (7.3 YPC LY) and the return of seemingly 9th year senior Andy Davidson who is tougher than a $3 steak. The running game will still produce eye-popping numbers IF the offensive line can continue to dominate. They paved the way for 6 (!) yards per carry last season but only return one starter (excellent C Bryce Holland).
DEFENSE
Army’s defense has been sneaky good the past two campaigns fnishing #32 in total defense last season and #4 (!!) in 2017. Running the ball extremely well and playing solid defense is still a winning recipe. Imagine that? Army returns eight starters this season and will have another good stop unit. They return fve starters in the front seven and 6/7 top tacklers from the 2017 team. The schedule is pretty barren of good offensive squads are we project a top 30 fnish for Army’s defense in 2018.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Uh, oh. Well, you can’t have everything. Army went just 3/8 (!) on FG attempts last season and tied for last in the FBS when it came to successful 3-pointers. P Nick Schrage did a decent job last year. The return game, as you can imagine with a service academy, could use some additional spice.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – It’s really easy. A quick glance at their itinerary reveals games against Liberty, Buffalo, San Jose St, Lafayette and Colgate, among others. The only automatic loss on the docket appears to be the game at Oklahoma.
279 2018 SEASON PREVIEW
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – None to be noted. It’s rare we recommend fading Army or Navy under any circumstances.
Season Win Total
Over 7 -155
Under 7 +125
MEGALOCKS says:
We will take a neutral stance for now. There is just too much uncertainty at QB and on the offensive line for us to recommend a season-opening watch list appearance.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
We know they can go weeks without throwing a pass, but Army only gave up ONE sack last season. HA.
Air Force leads the Commander-in-Chief series with Army and Navy as they have 20 wins to their credit (Navy-15, Army-7, Shared-4).
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 4.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the BLACK KNIGHTS a 4.5 ATS Value Rating (Slightly Below Average) this season.
Army has a record of 18-8 over the past two seasons after winning just six games in the previous two years. The trajectory is clearly upwards and we love it. They are almost certainly going to go bowling again with a sound rushing attack and stingy defense. The easy schedule will help. We worry a bit about the QB
280 MEGALOCKS situation (no more rock solid Bradshaw) and relatively inexperienced offensive line.
HC Jeff Monken has a 23-24-1 record ATS in his tenure at Army. We anticipate another record around .500 vs Vegas with not much upside or downside. Pick your spots and cheer them on!
281 2018 SEASON PREVIEW
BYU
2017 Recap Record – 4-9 ATS – 4-9
What in the Sam Hill was that?
BYU sputtered their way to a 4-9 fnish and could only boast wins over powerhouses Portland St, San Jose St, UNLV and Hawaii. Keep in mind that this is a proud program with great tradition that had won 8+ games in eight of the previous nine seasons. To be fair, the nasty early schedule and QB injuries did not help matters. The question becomes, can they turn things around this season and get back to a bowl game?
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Independents – #5
BYU Cougars 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
New OC Jeff Grimes will try and get this offense working at an acceptable level after managing just 17.1 (!) points per game in 2017. The Cougars had averaged 29.5, 33.7, 37.1 and 30.2 in their previous four campaigns. It will start at QB
282 MEGALOCKS where BYU hopes that senior Tanner Mangum is fully recovered from an Achilles injury. True freshman Zach Wilson is likely the long-term plan. BYU was ranked #104 in rushing and #90 in passing last season so there is work to be done.
The running game will likely be a committee approach led by Squally Canada who had an impressive 5.9 yard per carry average in 2017 despite playing in an anemic offense. We feel good about the possibility of BYU pounding weak run defenses with an effcient ground game. Of course, this is contingent upon the OL coming together quickly (2/5 returning starters). The passing game appears to have two reliable targets in TE Matt Bushman (LY leader in receptions and yards) and Hawaii grad transfer WR Dylan Collie.
We project some improvement but still fnd it hard to see them turning the corner on offense in a big way. They absolutely need to cut down on turnovers (#120 turnovers lost – 27). Avoiding an injury DEBACLE at QB like last season will also help.
DEFENSE
BYU fnished #51 in total defense last year but did not get enough PENETRATION (17 sacks in 13 games) and were poor defending the pass (#105 pass effciency D). If you improve the frst, the second should also get better. They bring back their top-two sack leaders from last season’s stop unit (DE Corbin Kaufusi – 6, LB Sione Takitaki – 5) and we like the size in the interior of the line. They were decent vs the run last year (3.7 yards per carry allowed) and we foresee this defense doing a good job with the front seven. The challenge will be to not get ripped apart by opposing QBs. They return 3/4 starters in the secondary and should improve, especially if they get apply more pressure.
We can see the Cougars making an incremental improvement on defense. They will face some potent offenses so it remains to be seen how the fnal stats will turn out.
SPECIAL TEAMS
283 2018 SEASON PREVIEW
Danger! Danger! They were 13/19 on FGA last season and lose their solid P Jonny Linehan (41 yards net LY). The return units were awful in 2017. Feels like a team weakness.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – It just might be a bit more diffcult than it frst appears. There are only three games that look like sure losses (at Wisconsin, at Washington, at Boise St) but there are not too many free squares, particularly when you consider the teams they were able to beat last year.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Massachusetts (November 10). This game comes after their big game on the SMURF TURF in Boise AND this time they need to travel out to the east coast. The Minutemen got them last season at BYU (16-10 victory) and will be jacked to take down a name school once again.
Season Win Total
Over 5 -205
Under 5 +165
MEGALOCKS says:
Neutral stance at the moment. This feels a lot like a fve or six win team.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Legendary HC LaVell Edwards won 19 conference championships, seven bowl games and one national title (1984) during his time at BYU.
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MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 4.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the COUGARS a 4.0 ATS Value Rating (Below Average) this season.
Last season we opined the following about the ATS prospects for the Cougars…..BYU has racked up a 16-9-1 (64%) ATS record the past two seasons. They must always be respected because they play so hard, but just being honest, it seems as though it may be an uphill battle vs the point spread this year.
Can we possibly be SOOTHSAYERS yet again?
It’s still unclear what kind of identity the Cougars will have on offense this season. There is a question mark at QB but hopefully the offensive line can exceed expectations. A solid running game will do wonders. Stay on the feld (#108 time of possession last season), be opportunistic and give the defense more time to rest. They also need to do a better job in the turnover department (-10 LY).
We see a bit of improvement on each side of the ball, but not enough to make us think they will give the better teams on the schedule much of a problem. It seems to us that next year may be the season to expect a big jump in performance. Pick your spots.
285 2018 SEASON PREVIEW
LIBERTY
2017 Recap Record – 6-5 ATS – N/A (FCS)
Here we go!
Liberty exits the FCS ranks and will attempt to be competitive in their frst season with the big boys. They SHOCKED the WORLD last season with a road win over Baylor, but can they pull more rabbits out of the hat in 2018?
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Independents – #6
Liberty Flames 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Flames put up 32.5 points per game last season and managed to hang 48 on Baylor. The offensive output tailed off a bit as the season went along, but they scored 27+ points in 8/11 games. QB Stephen Calvert is coming off a fne season (29-6 TD to INT) but it remains to be seen how he performs in a full season of FBS ball. The WR group looks stacked and boasts a legit #1 in Antonio Gandy- Golden (1,066, 15.4, 10 TD) and two other wideouts that averaged 15+ yards per
286 MEGALOCKS grab. RB Carrington Mosley led the team in rushing the past two years and has graduated leaving unproven #1 talent behind him on the roster. The OL returns essentially intact and they did an average job run blocking (4.0 YPC) in 2017, but were solid in pass protection (15 sacks allowed). Even with the step up in competition we can see this team fnishing the year with close to 30 PPG.
DEFENSE
It gets a bit dicey here. Again, it is hard to say how the stats will turn out with the improved competition on the schedule, but the good news is that they have seven returning starters including their top-3 tacklers from the 2017 stop unit. DE Juwan Wells was a beast last season leading the team in tackles, sacks, TFL and QBH. It’s hard to know how the defense will stack up in the FBS but they allowed a worrisome 5.5 YPC last year and only generated 11 sacks (!) in 11 games. It might be a long season for the Flames on defense.
SPECIAL TEAMS
This is a bit of an unknown. PK Alex Probert made 14/20 FGs last season but they lose their ace long-snapper and reliable punter. The return units were average last season. It’s probably safe to forecast a below-average performance for the group, but nothing disastrous.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – It’s a yuuuuge upgrade in the overall level of competition but not an overwhelming docket. There is no reason to think they can’t tally at least a couple of wins.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Auburn (November 17). It’s their 3rd straight road game and their depth may have been depleted by now (injuries). Auburn will be laying a ton of points in a scrimmage but we would still be leery of backing the Flames here.
Season Win Total
287 2018 SEASON PREVIEW
TBD
(Note – we set the fair line at 3 over -120. Not going to take a stab at their season win total.)
MEGAmazing Tidbits
The last time the Flames had a losing season was back in 2005 (1-10).
Liberty is the largest private university in the USA. Amaze the local SMOKESHOW COCKTAIL WAITRESS with that gem.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 3.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the FLAMES a 3.5 ATS Value Rating (Below Average) this season.
This should be interesting. It’s anyone’s guess how this team stacks up BUT we will get an early indication with games against Old Dominion and Army. The offense should be fne but we are really concerned about the defense. There may be “value” siding with these guys at times over the course of the season as people will not be lining up to hammer Liberty vs the point spread. We still believe a cautious approach is prudent.
Best of luck to the Flames!
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MASSACHUSETTS
2017 Recap Record – 4-8 ATS – 6-6
That was quite the fnish.
Massachusetts started the campaign with six straight losses but did not quit. They won four of their next fve games, and the only setback was a very respectable road loss (34-23) to Mississippi St. The fnal tilt was a “defense-is-optional” game with FIU in which they lost 63-45. The signature victories were a 2-OT win at home vs scrappy Appalachian St and a road decision over BYU.
The only thing to do now is get back to a bowl game. It’s been a long time between drinks.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Independents – #3
Massachusetts Minutemen 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
289 2018 SEASON PREVIEW
The Minutemen averaged over 30 points per game last season, and in fact, had BACK-to-BACK JACKS mid-season when they hung half-a-hundy (50 vs Ohio, 55 vs Georgia Southern). It’s not too diffcult to score points when you boast one of the more underrated passers in college football. QB Andrew Ford threw for almost 3,000 yards last season and tossed 22 TD passes whilst only being intercepted 4 (!) times in 353 attempts. The senior QB will miss excellent TE Adam Breneman (64 receptions LY) but will be happy to see the top four WRs back including ace Andy Isabella who put up great receiving stats (65-1,020, 15.7, 10 TD) and even rushed for 137 yards (#4 on team). Pass protection needs to improve as they have allowed an unseemly 91 (!!) sacks combined over the past two campaigns. The RB unit brings back everyone and senior Marquis Young could easily bag 1,000 yards. Again, the OL needs to do a better job as UMass has struggled running the football for a long time.
DEFENSE
Massachusetts made some strides last season but still allowed over 400 yards per game. Even so, it was their best performance since 2011 when they allowed just 27.9 PPG (LY 31.8). The Minutemen return six starters this year including #1 tackler LB Bryton Barr and 3/4 to a secondary that played pretty well last season (53.3% #16 FBS). The bad news is that they only bring back a pair of their top-6 tacklers from the 2017 stop unit and lose their excellent DE Da’Sean Downey who was responsible for a ton of their PENETRATION in 2017 (20 TFL; nobody else had double digits). It’s hard to see them holding opponents to under 30 PPG in 2018.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Uh, oh. They move on without reliable P,PK Logan Laurent and were poor in the return game last season. REALLY bad on punt returns. This will likely be a problem area.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – Not too bad, but let’s hope they don’t need a win at Georgia on November 17th to achieve bowl eligibility.
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Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Ohio (September 29th). This will be their 4th road game in fve weeks and the Bobcats look to be mighty spicy this season. Ohio was given all they could handle last season in a 58-50 (!) victory so it’s hard to see them taking UMass lightly.
Season Win Total
Over 5.5 -120
Under 5.5 +110
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean to the over. The only truly MORTAL LOCK LOSS is their game at Georgia. There are other tough games on the docket but the Minutemen have shown they can keep games close vs superior opposition. They should be able to dispose of Duquesne, Charlotte, and Liberty.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Amaze your 2nd Cousin at the next PAINFULLY BORING FAMILY WEDDING with this gem. Massachusetts has only played in two bowl games. The TANGERINE Bowl and something called the Boardwalk Bowl. When they ventured under the Boardwalk, it was back in 1972, and that is the only time they have tasted bowl victory.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 5.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the MINUTEMEN a 5.0 ATS Value Rating (Average) this season.
These guys will be playing in entertaining games. The offense will be good and just might be REALLY good if the offensive line can do a better job. We
291 2018 SEASON PREVIEW worry quite a bit about the defense and it seems as though the Minutemen will be in most of their games BUT never home and cooled. It’s not a hot take to suggest keeping their totals in mind (team total over, game total over) if value is present.
Longtime MEGALOCKS readers know we love to cheer for the smaller programs that have not tasted a lot of success. Last season we were thrilled to see New Mexico St do so well. The year before it was Eastern Michigan. In 2018, we have set our sights on a few teams, and one of them is Massachusetts. It’s not going to be easy to bag six wins but they certainly have the offensive talent to get the job done. Don’t forget that last season they did not lose a game by more than 11 points until the season fnale.
Head coach Mark Whipple has compiled a 25-23 record vs the point spread over the past four seasons. The good offense / suspect defense combo is likely to cause headaches for bettors, so we recommend a prudent approach when it comes to backing the Minutemen. They are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 as road dogs. Not saying, just saying.
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NEW MEXICO ST
2017 Recap Record – 7-6 ATS – 7-6
Boom!
MEGALOCKS NATION followed the journey last season hoping for the frst bowl bid since 1960, and they pulled it off! They won late vs South Alabama in the season fnale to gain bowl eligibility, and then followed it up with a dramatic OT win over Utah St in the Arizona Bowl.
The Aggies bagged seven wins after only getting eight of them in the previous three seasons combined. Can they keep the momentum going this year?
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Independents – #4
New Mexico St Aggies 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Aggies move on from QB Tyler Rogers who was a beast last season throwing for over 4,000 yards on a mind-boggling 566 (!) attempts. There were
293 2018 SEASON PREVIEW
18 picks thrown as well, but overall, he did a fne job of keeping New Mexico St in almost every game. The new starter will not be named until fall camp, but our MEGALOCKS NEW MEXICO ST INSIDERS tell us that there are a handful of guys with potential including senior Nick Jeanty and JC transfer Matthew Romero. The offensive line returns almost everyone and they did a fne job in pass protection last season allowing just 32 sacks in well over 600 pass attempts.
How will they deal with departure of their #2 all-time leading rusher Larry Rose? That is a legitimate question. Jason Huntley will take over as the lead RB and he averaged six yards a pop in 2017. New Mexico St loses an NFL-quality WR in Jaleel Scott (Ravens DC) and will miss the receiving production of Rose (55 receptions LY) out of the backfeld. There still appears to be talent in the receving group but a true #1 will need to emerge.
DEFENSE
Raise your hand if you knew that New Mexico St fnished tied for 5th in the FBS last year with 43 sacks. That’s what we thought. DC Frank Spaziani did a wonderful job getting the PPG cut from 38.8 in 2016 to just 29.7 last season. Nine starters return in 2018 including 4/4 on the DL. They have good size in the interior and DEs Cedric Wilcots and Malik Demby combined for 15 sacks LY. They lose leading tackler LB Dalton Herrington but still return plenty of experience in the back seven. Recall that the Aggies were #49 in pass effciency D and #7 in 3rd down defense in 2017. We expect another season of allowing slightly under 30 PPG.
SPECIAL TEAMS
The awesome Phil Steele mag sums it up. Their special teams units have fnished #122, #127, #125, #122 and #125 over the past fve seasons. It’s not a complete lost cause this year with KR Jason Huntley (2 TD LY) and PK Dylan Brown (13/17 FG, although 0/1 from 40+). Not a disaster. Not great.
Schedule Analysis
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Overall – It sets up well if the Aggies can survive the tough early stretch of the docket when they face Wyoming, Minnesota, and Utah St, followed by a game with rival New Mexico. The back part of the schedule looks very manageable.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at UTEP (September 22). The Miners might be HOT GARBAGE this season but this game comes after the aforementioned FOUR BAGGER. It will be their 3rd road test in four weeks and probably not an ideal spot to be laying a lot of points. We presume that will be the case.
Season Win Total
Over 6 +110
Under 6 -140
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean to the over. Feels like a team that can defnitely get to six wins. After that? Maybe.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Amaze your POOL BOY with this gem. New Mexico St bagged 43 sacks last season after TOTALING 43 sacks in the previous FOUR years (12,15,5,11).
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 6.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the AGGIES a 6.5 ATS Value Rating (Above average) this season.
Is there more magic left in Las Cruces? Assuming that the QB play is decent, the offense will still be very good, even without last season’s #1 RB and #1 WR. We like the look of the defense and the job that DC Spaziani is
295 2018 SEASON PREVIEW doing with this team. The Aggies have a 14-11 ATS record the past two seasons and we forecast another overall winning mark vs the Vegas line. It’s still hard for people to get their heads around this team being “good” after being a dumpster fre for so long.
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NOTRE DAME
2017 Recap Record – 10-3 ATS – 8-5
Not a bad run.
Notre Dame took on a heck of a schedule and still managed to bag 10 wins. Their only losses were a one-point home loss vs Georgia and a pair of road defeats vs solid Miami and Stanford squads. They also pulled off a comeback win in the Citrus Bowl when backup QB Ian Book threw a TD pass with under two minutes remaining.
It’s another tough schedule to deal with this season. Do they have a team that can successfully navigate this docket and make the playoff?
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Independents – #1
Notre Dame Fighting Irish 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
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QB Brandon Wimbush has proven himself to be an explosive runner (14 rushing TDs LY) but he needs to improve his accuracy in order for this offense to hum. Wimbush had a decent TD to INT ratio (16-6) but completed less than 50% of his attempts and struggled against the better defenses on their schedule. It’s unclear what kind of targets are at his disposal after the departure of #1 WR Equanimeous St Brown to the NFL (Green Bay). They have some good size in the WR unit and TE Alize Mack has potential (although so far, unrealized).
The Irish will have to move on without their excellent RB Josh Adams (1,430 yards LY) and also lose their #2 rusher in Deon McIntosh (5.7 YPC, 5 TD). There are a couple of highly recruited and talented backs on the roster (Dexter Williams, Tony Jones) but it remains to be seen if they can be an effective 1-2 punch. This is especially true given that they lose a pair of #1 NFL DC on the offensive line to the NFL.
DEFENSE
Things look pretty good on the defensive side of the ball. Notre Dame returns 9 starters to a defense that allowed 21.5 points per game while playing a really tough schedule. The front seven is stout with 3/4 returning starters on the line including excellent DT Jerry Tillery (9 TFL, 11 QBH) and a strong LB corps headed by Te’von Coney (leading tackler LY, 13 TFL). The secondary will not take a back seat with three returning starters and the addition of Navy transfer Alohi Gilman to the mix. CB Julian Love was 2nd in the FBS with 20 PBU last year.
Our NOTRE DAME INSIDERS predict their best statistical performance since the 2012 team that allowed just 12.8 points per game (LY – 21.5).
SPECIAL TEAMS
The Irish are set at PK with Justin Yoon returning for one more season (14/18 LY). The other aspects of the special teams group were average last season. Not an overwhelming group on paper.
Schedule Analysis
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Overall – It is not as devastating as last season but it still packs a punch. There are only four true road games but two of those are at Virginia Tech and USC.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Syracuse (November 17). This contest falls between a big home date with Florida St and a road trip to USC. The situation gets extra dicey if the season has nothing left at this point other than a medium- level bowl game.
Season Win Total
Over 9.5 +115
Under 9.5 -135
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean under as we go to press. If they lose to Michigan in week one it is really hard to see them getting to 10 wins. If they win that game, there are still plenty of land mines.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Notre Dame has the 3rd highest win% of any program with 600+ wins (.724). Michigan comes in at .729 and Ohio St has banked .725.
Lou Holtz is awesome.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 5.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the FIGHTING IRISH a 5.0 ATS Value Rating (Average) this season.
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Boy, it gets real in week one. The Irish have to face the Wolverines but at least they get them at home. There are plenty more tough outs on the schedule including USC, Florida St, Virginia Tech and Stanford. The offense has potential but they are without two outstanding OL from last year, as well as their #1 rusher and #1 receiver. The Wimbush/Book combo appears solid at QB but is that enough to drive a “public” team to ATS glory? At least the defense should be nasty.
Brian Kelly has a 46-47-3 record vs the point spread during his tenure at Notre Dame. Given the new pieces on offense, the tough schedule and the average special teams, it follows that a neutral stance is appropriate to start the season.
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MID-AMERICAN CONFERENCE (MAC)
EAST DIVISION
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AKRON
Recap Record – 7-7 ATS – 6-7-1
You have to respect the job that HC Terry Bowden has done at Akron. The Zips have a record of 20-19 over the past three seasons (including their frst EVER bowl victory) after being a complete GREASE FIRE since the dawn of time. They even managed to sneak into the MAC Championship game last year but unfortunately got their teeth kicked in by Toledo. And let’s not talk about the Boca Raton Bowl (L 50-3 to Florida Atlantic).
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
East Division – #4
MAC – Tied #7
Akron Zips 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
We have alerted our MAC RESEARCH SCANTILY-CLAD HOTTIES to do the following digging. Has any team since the dawn of time averaged a mere 22.1 PPG and made a conference title game? Inquiring minds want to know.
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The Zips scratched and clawed their way to a 7-5 record during the regular season despite averaging just 22.1 PPG over the course of the campaign (24.9 PPG in MAC play). QB Kato Nelson emerged as their QB of the future when he posted at 8-2 TD to INT ratio whilst playing like a seasoned veteran down the stretch. The issues with the offense? None of the returning starters had more than 400 (!) yards rushing last season and only one man had more than 100 (!!!) yards receiving. The offensive line returns 3/5 starters but they gave up 38 sacks last season and managed just 105 YPG rushing.
The Zips’ performance was extremely sketchy in 2017 and we fnd it hard to believe they can make much improvement this year.
DEFENSE
Akron was not a JUGGERNAUT on defense last season (#11 MAC) but somehow managed to slither their way to a MAC East title. They bring back nine starters to the stop unit but will need to get things done without former DC Chuck Amato. There’s no doubt it will help to have their top seven tacklers back for duty including 1st Team MAC selection LB Ulysees Gilbert and the secondary returns 4/4 starters. It seems likely that Akron will take a step forward in 2018.
SPECIAL TEAMS
It’s hard to imagine a division champ in any conference having a performance level of the 2017 Akron Zips. The good (??) news is that almost everyone returns to the group including a sketchy P/PK combo. It’s hard to not worry about this group heading into 2018.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – It looks pretty nasty, yo. The Zips have out-of-conference appointments with Nebraska, Northwestern and Iowa St before heading into MACtion ACTION.
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Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Kent St (October 20). The Zips will need to deal with this rivalry game as the 4th road tilt in fve weeks.
Season Win Total
Over 4.5 +130
Under 4.5 -160
MEGALOCKS says:
Neutral view for now. The defense should be solid but it’s hard to forecast what will happen on offense. Our best guess is that the Zips get off to a slow start and bag some wins in conference play during the second half of the season.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
The football program was originally named the ZIPPERS after rubber boots manufactured by B.F. Goodrich. You just can’t get this kind of KNOWLEDGE BOMBS anywhere else.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 4.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the ZIPS a 4.0 ATS Value Rating (Below Average) this season.
The Zips look like a longshot contender in the MAC East and we wonder if they can get back to the title game without a signifcant step forward. It was a bit of SMOKE and MIRRORS last year when Akron got themselves to the title game. Our best recommendation at this point in time is to be careful when considering the Zips vs the point spread.
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BOWLING GREEN
2017 Recap Record – 2-10 ATS – 3-9
Yikes.
The Falcons managed to tally just a pair of victories last season and one of those was courtesy of the Kent St Golden Flashes. The Mike Jinks experiment has not started with a ton of success as Bowling Green has stumbled to a 6-18 record over the past two seasons.
The theory goes that year three is the magic moment when things “click”. Will that happen this season for the men in orange?
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
East Division – #5
MAC – #10
Bowling Green Falcons 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
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The Falcons have managed to scrounge up a mere 25 PPG in each of the past two seasons. If your defense is not LIGHTS FREAKING OUT that will not get it done in the MAC. The good news is that freshman Jarret Doege looked really good at the end of the 2017 season and he fnished with an impressive 64% completion rate and a 12-3 TD to INT ratio.
Bowling Green had another impressive freshman in RB Andrew Clair who rattled off 725 yards last season at an impressive 6.8 yards a pop. The WR unit should be decent with last season’s #1 Scott Miller (63, 722, 4 TD) back for action along with #3 wideout Datrin Guyton (18.9 YPC LY). The offensive line dealt with the dreaded injury bug last year but bring back 3/5 starters to the mix this season.
We expect much improved production in 2018 and expect 30+ PPG.
DEFENSE
The defense has been a DEBACLE the past two years allowing 38 PPG on each occasion. New DC Carl Pelini should be an upgrade from a coaching standpoint and he has seven returning starters to work with this season. The Falcons allowed an UNFATHOMABLE 253 YPG (!) on the ground (#126 FBS) in 2017 and absolutely need to clean that up BIG TIME before they can even think about challenging in the MAC East. They also need to fnd a way to get more pressure on the QB as they only bagged 15 sacks last year.
We are not asking for the impossible. Bowling Green allowed 15.9 (!!) PPG in 2013 and 16.8 PPG in 2012. Finishing at or near the bottom of the MAC is inexcusable. We forecast a signifcant improvement this year but note that the Falcons will have no shot at the MAC East crown unless they fnd a way to allow less than 30 PPG. #HotTake
SPECIAL TEAMS
RUH ROH.
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This could be a problem area as they need to introduce a new PK and P. The return units were average last season.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – It’s not cool. They must deal with road dates at Oregon and Georgia Tech in non-conference play before facing Toledo and Ohio on the road in MACtion.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Georgia Tech (September 29). The Falcons have a week to prepare for the option before the heart of MACtion ACTION begins.
Season Win Total
Over 4.5 +110
Under 4.5 -140
MEGALOCKS says:
It’s hard to have any LEANAGE at this number. The schedule is really tough BUT if they can survive the frst half of the docket it’s not impossible to see them getting on a run late in the year.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Your boy URBAN MEYER tallied a record of 17-6 at Bowling Green before leaving to coach the Utah Utes.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 5.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the FALCONS a 5.5 ATS Value Rating (Slightly Above Average) this season.
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Here’s the thing. The Falcons should have a fairly potent offense but they have been brutal on defense since Mike Jinks took over as HC. And the schedule is tough. The good news is the potential upside of QB Jarret Doege and the impact of Carl Pelini as DC.
Bowling Green was an impossible 7-17 vs Vegas in the frst two years of the Mike Jinks experiment but we feel this team might be worth a look vs the point spread on many occasions this season.
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BUFFALO
2017 Recap Record – 6-6 ATS – 8-2-2
The Bulls battled the entire season and fnished the campaign with three consecutive wins. The fnal victory was over the solid Ohio Bobcats (900,000 STAR MEGALOCKS TRIPLE MAX LASER LOCK winner) but they were still snubbed when it came to getting a bowl invitation. They beat Florida Atlantic, lost a pair of one-point games (Northern Illinois, Akron) and lost an epic SEVEN OT game to Western Michigan that just fnished.
The Bulls should have a chip on their shoulder this season. Can they contend for a MAC East crown? Let’s dig in.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
East Division – #3
MAC – #4
Buffalo Bulls 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
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The Bulls averaged 28.5 PPG (#5 MAC) last season and should be ready to take a step forward this year. Junior QB Tyree Jackson is a dangerous dual-threat QB who has proven to be effcient when MATRICULATING down the feld in the passing game (60.3%, 12-3 TD to INT LY). Jackson battled the injury bug last season and we expect a big season from him if he can stay healthy. The WR group is one of the best in the conference and features one of the best WRs in college football that not many people know about. Anthony Johnson was a 1st Team MAC selection after snagging 76 receptions for 1,356 yards (17.8) and 14 (!) TDs. The pass protection was really good in 2017 (17 sacks allowed) and they return 3/5 starters to the offensive line. It has the potential to be one of the best in the MAC. The top three RBs return this season making it a very deep group.
Our BUFFALO INSIDERS project the frst 30 PPG season since 2014.
DEFENSE
If the Bulls can fnd a way to maintain what they did on defense last season (24.8 PPG) they will line themselves up for a fne MAC campaign. The defense gets one more year out of tackling MACHINE LB Khalil Hodge who was 2nd in the FBS in tackles last year (154)(!) while garnering 1st Team MAC honors. They have experience and enough size on the DL and a decent looking secondary. We worry about their ability to get enough PENETRATION to disrupt opposing offenses (19 sacks LY) and hope they can fnd a way to pick off more than 8 passes (T10 MAC). It feels like an average MAC unit on paper.
SPECIAL TEAMS
This could be a sore spot. They lose their best weapon (P Kyle DeWeen) and were average in the return game last season. PK Adam Mitcheson was just 2/6 from 40+ yards in 2017.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – It’s a bit trickier than one might think. They start with a Delaware St lay-up, but then again, they did lose to Albany in 2016 and were life and death to beat Stony Brook in 2013. Road games at Temple and Rutgers won’t be easy and
310 MEGALOCKS they also face a tough Army squad. Nobody on the MAC docket is unbeatable but they do face division favorite Ohio on the road.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – September 29 (Army). They have one week to get ready for the option and MACtion play is on deck.
Season Win Total
Over 6.5 -150
Under 6.5 +120
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean to the over. We like the look of the team but it’s hard to get super excited about laying -150. If you can fnd a better price (-110 to -120) it might be worth a small taste.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
The Bulls have never won a bowl game (0-2).
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 6.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the BULLS a 6.0 ATS Value Rating (Above Average) this season.
The offense looks really strong and we love the upside of QB Jackson. They may struggle early in the campaign with some tough out-of-conference games but we like their chances to win a bunch of MAC contests. They get Miami and Akron at home. The November 14th trip to Ohio might be for all the East marbles.
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Buffalo had a fne season vs the point spread last year and we can see them being a solid play on many occasions this year. Just be cautious if it appears the defense is not getting it done.
Let’s go Buffalo. Get to a bowl game and win it!
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KENT ST
Recap Record – 2-10
ATS – 4-8
It was another tough season for Kent St as they struggled to a two-win campaign. They did manage to upset the Miami Redhawks, but other than that unexpected triumph, they pretty much got pasted every week. The Golden Flashes have only won 14 (!) games over the past fve seasons and new head coach Sean Lewis has a lot of work to do.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
East Division – #6
MAC – #12
Kent St Golden Flashes 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
Kent St was a mess last year fnishing #127 in the FBS in total offense (275 YPG) and #128 in scoring offense (12.8 PPG). The main culprit was an
313 2018 SEASON PREVIEW extremely ineffective passing attack that could only muster 123 YPG (#123 FBS). There are a few options to consider for the starting QB gig including Auburn transfer Woody Barrett and sophomore Dustin Crum who attempted 30 passes in 2017. RB Justin Rankin will look to follow up on an excellent freshman season in which he led the team in rushing yards (490) and receptions (42). Nobody else on the team had more than 20 catches in 2017. The offensive line brings back 3/5 starters but appears to lack depth. They allowed a whopping 46 (!) sacks in 12 games last year and need to get that problem fxed.
New HC Sean Lewis and OC Andrew Sowder will increase the tempo but it remains to be seen how quickly that will translate into points. They have no choice (?) other than to improve on their output from a season ago but we suspect they will fall shy of the 20 PPG mark.
DEFENSE
Kent allowed over 30 PPG (35.1) last year for the frst time since 2008. Startle the table at the next FAMILY PICNIC with that trivia nugget. They have almost always had a strong defense in the recent past but they only return fve starters. The good news is that they bring back their top-two tacklers from the 2017 unit including 1st Team MAC honoree LB Jim Jones. We worry about the impact of an offense that is likely to have a lot of quick three-and-outs as the defense will be under duress on a frequent basis. There is some talent here but it feels like they will struggle to hold their opponents to under 30 PPG.
SPECIAL TEAMS
We have serious concerns about the return units that were dreadful in 2017 (#93 PR, #124 KR) and they also need to break in a new PK. A bright spot is the return of P Derek Adams who earned 2nd Team MAC honors with a 39.2 yard net.
Schedule Analysis
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Overall – The frst two games vs Illinois and Howard are not so bad but then they face a DAILY DOUBLE OF DOOM with road trips to Penn St and Ole Miss. They have seven road games on the docket.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Miami (October 13). This will be the Flashes’ 4th road game in fve weeks and it precedes the WAGON WHEEL RIVALRY game with Akron.
Season Win Total
Over 2.5 +120
Under 2.5 -150
MEGALOCKS says:
Neutral view at the moment. There are four or fve winnable games on the schedule. Seriously. It’s just hard to know how much these guys will struggle.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Kent St has only banked one season with more than six wins in the last 30 years (2012 – 11).
The Golden Flashes have never won a bowl game (0-2).
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 3.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the GOLDEN FLASHES a 3.0 ATS Value Rating (Below Average) this season.
It’s not a particularly HOT TAKE to suggest that these guys will struggle in year one of the Sean Lewis era. There are system changes on both sides of
315 2018 SEASON PREVIEW the ball and it’s unclear what to expect out of the QB position. We imagine they will be scrappier than anticipated and probably SHOCK the WORLD at least once.
There are some interesting pieces on the roster but it’s probably smart to avoid these guys vs the point spread on most occasions. We expect to have a more glowing forecast next year.
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MIAMI
2017 Recap Record – 5-7 ATS – 4 -8
The Redhawks had an extremely disappointing campaign. They had an experienced team returning for battle and could not even manage a winning record. They lost a lot of close games (four by a combined 15 points) but there was no excuse to lose to Kent St and Bowling Green.
Do they have the MINERALS to sneak up on the MAC East this year?
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
East Division – #2
MAC – #3
Miami Ohio Redhawks 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Redhawks have to fgure out a way to get the offense moving. They have improved their scoring output in back-to-back seasons but have not averaged 30 PPG since 2005. QB Gus Ragland has proven himself to be an effcient QB when
317 2018 SEASON PREVIEW healthy (19-7 TD to INT LY) and will be happy to see 1st Team MAC WR James Gardner return for one more season (927, 11 TD, 19.7 YPC LY). Essentially the entire RB unit is back including a solid 1-2 punch of Kenny Young and Alonzo Smith who combined for over 1,400 yards rushing and 8 TDs on the ground in 2017. They will be running behind an offensive line that returns all fve starters and paved the way for 147 yards per game on the ground. That may not sound like much but Miami has improved their rushing YPG in three consecutive campaigns.
If Ragland can stay healthy we project a signifcant increase in production.
DEFENSE
The Redhawks had the #1 defense in the conference in 2016 and followed that up with a #3 ranking in 2017. This season looks promising as well with eight starters returning to the stop unit including 3/4 starters on the DL and last season’s leading tackler LB Brad Koenig. The pass defense was really good last year (52.6% completions) but they will be without two fne performers that have since graduated. CB Heath Harding and S Tony Reid were two of the teams three leading tacklers last year whilst combining for 17 PBUs.
The defense looks to be a top-four MAC unit again but will need to fnd a way to get more PENETRATION (18 sacks LY) if they plan on getting to the top of the MAC defense pecking order.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Things look fne. Almost everyone returns and the kicking game looks pretty good with both PK Samuel Sloman (12/16 FG attempts LY) and P Kyle Kramer (38.8 net) back for duty.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – It’s tough. The out-of-conference action features games with a good- looking Marshall squad, a road trip to Minnesota and a battle with the scrappy
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Army Black Knights. They get to tackle Ohio at home but have a tough road date with Northern Illinois on November 14.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Akron (October 6). This will be the Redhawks’ 3rd road test in four weeks and the Zips will be well-rested off a bye week.
Season Win Total
Over 6.5 +105
Under 6.5 -135
MEGALOCKS says:
No leanage as we near post time. We like the look of this team (again….more on that below) but wonder about getting to seven wins.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
They don’t call it the CRADLE OF COACHES for nothing, yo. Some of the names you might recognize that spent time with the Redhawks include Ara Parseghian, Woody Hayes, Bo Schembechler, Sean Payton, Jim Tressel, and John Harbaugh.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 8.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the REDHAWKS a 8.0 ATS Value Rating (Very good) this season.
Ok, let’s try this again.
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Last year we thought that Miami was in for a really good season both straight up and vs the point spread. Oops. Bad call, MEGALOCKS. Can they be trusted this year?
This looks like a really balanced team that should be a big-time player in the MAC East. Back-to-back yuuuuuge games with Buffalo and Ohio near the end of the schedule will likely determine whether or not these guys can bag a division title. Don’t forget that Miami almost beat Mississippi St in their bowl game in 2016.
HC Chuck Martin has a 27-21-1 record (56%) vs Vegas during his tenure at Miami with the only misstep being the 2017 campaign. Let’s pencil these guys in on the watch list to start the season.
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OHIO
2017 Recap Record – 9-4 ATS – 9-4
Oh, boy.
Ohio seemed ready to make a trip to the MAC Championship game before they fell to Akron as double-digit favorites late in the season. They made amends in the Bahamas Bowl by whipping UAB (W 41-6) but had to feel disappointed that the MAC East slipped through their fngers.
It’s right there for the taking once again. Can they follow through this time around?
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
East Division – #1
MAC – #1
Ohio Bobcats 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
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It’s always nice to start the season knowing you have the best QB in the conference leading the offense. QB Nathan Rourke was a dual-threat machine last year throwing for 17 TDs and rushing for 912 yards and 21 (!) TDs. Yup, that happened. The WR group is experienced and led by senior WR Papi White (17.5 YPC LY). The Bobcats only allowed 16 sacks last season and bring back 4/5 starters to what is going to be one of the MAC’s best offensive lines. The running back group will miss Dorian Brown (11 rushing TD, 6.8 YPC LY) but they return the ageless AJ Ouellette who rushed for over 1,000 yards in 2017.
Ohio had the #1 scoring offense in the MAC last season (39.1 PPG) and we think they will be a handful once again in 2018. Look for them to be at or near the top of the MAC offensive stats when the season comes to a conclusion.
DEFENSE
The Bobcats fnished #5 in the MAC in total defense last year and enter this campaign with a few question marks. They only return four starters to the stop unit and lose the services of their all-time leading tackler and 1st Team MAC selection LB Quentin Poling. The defensive line is a particular area of concern as the entire starting group is new. The good news is that HC Frank Solich almost always features a competent defense and there are a few nice pieces to work with this year. LB Evan Crouch is solid and the secondary returns three starters including senior CB Jalen Fox. They will however miss the services of CB Bradd Ellis who had an amazing 19 PBUs in 2017.
The Bobcats have a good recent history on defense but it’s hard to see them matching last season’s mark of 24.2 PPG allowed (#4 MAC).
SPECIAL TEAMS
The Bobcats boast an excellent PK in Louie Zervos who made 15/18 FG attempts last season with two of the misfres coming from 50+ yards. They look strong across the board and will feld one of the best special teams groups in the conference.
Schedule Analysis
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Overall – It’s pretty easy. The non-conference slate features home games with Howard and Massachusetts while the road dates are both winnable (Virginia, Cincinnati). They get two of the other prime contenders in the division (Buffalo, Akron) at home the fnal two weeks of the season.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Northern Illinois (October 13). This will be their fourth roadie in fve weeks and the Huskies look really good on paper.
Season Win Total
Over 8.5 +110
Under 8.5 -140
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean to the over. The Bobcats always seem to fnd a way to lose a small handful of games so it’s hard to fully trust them. AMIRITE?
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Ohio had only been to TWO (!) bowl games (1962, 1968) prior to the arrival of Frank Solich in 2005. Since then they have been to 9 bowl games including eight of the past nine seasons.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 6.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the BOBCATS a 6.0 ATS Value Rating (Above Average) this season.
The Bobcats are going to be a tough train to derail. The offense is stacked and all they need to be a championship-level team is to fnd a way to play their usual sound defense. And not lose a game or two they have no business
323 2018 SEASON PREVIEW losing. The division is deeper than you might think but Ohio is still the class of the lot.
Ohio has rolled up three consecutive winning seasons vs the point spread (25-15, 62.5%) and we think the odds are decent they make it a FOUR- BAGGER.
324 MEGALOCKS
MID-AMERICAN CONFERENCE (MAC)
WEST DIVISION
325 2018 SEASON PREVIEW
BALL ST
2017 Recap Record – 2-10 ATS – 3-9
Ball St got off a good start winning two of their frst three games including a 20- point win over a solid UAB squad. Things got really ugly after they lost their starting QB and #1 RB to season-ending injuries. They had a seemingly impossible stretch in which they allowed 55+ points in four straight games (56,58,56,63). That’s not ideal.
The Cardinals will have an experienced and (hopefully) healthy squad heading into 2018. Is it too much to hope for a bowl bid? Let’s dig in.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
West Division – #5
MAC – #9
Ball St Cardinals 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
326 MEGALOCKS
It should be all systems go for QB Riley Neal who got off to a fne start before being injured early last season. Neal has completed well over 60% of his passes in his career and rushed for 8 TDs in 2016. When Neal chooses to MATRICULATE down the feld in the passing game he will have a very experienced receiving group to throw to including emerging star Justin Hall who led all freshman WR with 78 receptions in 2017 (2nd Team MAC). There is an embarrassment of riches at RB with a pair of players that have recorded 1,000- yard campaigns (Caleb Huntley 1,003 LY, James Gilbert 1,332 in 2016). Malik Dunner is a home-run hitter that bagged 8 TDs on the ground last season. If the offensive line can do a decent job this season (3/5 returning starters) the offense should pack a nice punch. Regardless, they will most defnitely improve their performance over last year’s injury-riddled campaign (17.9 PPG).
DEFENSE
The Cardinals ranked #10 in the MAC in total defense last year (422 YPG) and allowed over 40 PPG. Ball St has not allowed less than 30 PPG since 2014, and if they want to make a bowl appearance this year, our MAC INSIDERS tell us that a signifcant improvement must be made on defense. The defensive line is a big question mark this year with zero returning starters and the loss of excellent pass rusher Anthony Winbush who bagged 11.5 (!) sacks in 2017. Nobody else recorded more than three sacks last year and the Cardinals are going to have to fnd a replacement for some of the PENETRATION provided by Mr Winbush. The good news is that seven starters return in the LB and DB groups and there are a lot of young players ready to take a step forward.
Ball St yielded 50+ points on fve separate occasions last season and we don’t think there will anything close to that DEBACLE in 2018.
SPECIAL TEAMS
The need to fgure this “punting” thing out after ranking #128 last season with a terrifying 30 yard net. When they weren’t shanking punts into the CONCESSION AREA they were getting punts blocked (4). PK Morgan Hagee hit only 9/16 FG attempts last year. One positive is the emergence of Malik Dunner at KR (24.4, TD LY).
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Schedule Analysis
Overall – It’s tough. The out-of-conference docket includes trips to Notre Dame and Indiana. They also have tough back-to-back road games vs Ohio and Toledo.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Toledo (October 31). This will be their 3rd road contest in four weeks and Toledo is a tough place to play. Additional concern applies if the season is already down the drain at this point.
Season Win Total
Over 4 +100
Under 4 -130
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean to the over as we approach press time. The Cardinals should be much approved, although we do worry about the nasty schedule. The good news is that there are defnitely three to six wins right there for the taking.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Ball St has an all-time bowl record of 0-7. You know MEGALOCKS NATION will be pulling for these guys to win when they get another shot.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 7.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the CARDINALS a 7.0 ATS Value Rating (Good) this season.
There is hope on the horizon in our humble opinion. The Cardinals have a legitimate shot to get back to a bowl game provided that they can avoid the
328 MEGALOCKS catastrophic injury bug. We think the offense will be good enough to keep them competitive in most games but the defense absolutely needs to take a step forward. The talent is unproven, but there is certainly upside.
HC Mike Neu is 10-14 vs the point spread in two seasons leading the Cardinals. This is a make or break year and our gut tells us this team will be a money-maker over the course of the season.
329 2018 SEASON PREVIEW
CENTRAL MICHIGAN
2017 Recap Record – 8-5 ATS – 7-6
FIRE UP CHIPS managed to grind out another decent season that included wins over Ohio and Northern Illinois. It’s hard to believe, but a (-8) turnover margin in a bowl game does not usually lead to good results, and Central Michigan sadly ended the campaign with a 37-14 loss to Wyoming.
It’s not usually good policy to underestimate the Chippewas. Let’s see if they have what it takes to be players in the MAC West this year.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
West Division – #6
MAC – #11
Central Michigan Chippewas 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
Sugar Shane Morris was inconsistent last season but he still managed to throw for well over 3,000 yards and 27 TDs. This year FIRE UP CHIPS must break in a
330 MEGALOCKS new QB in sophomore Tony Poljan who only threw 21 passes in 2017. Poljan will be without the top four (!) receivers from last season’s team and that is a huge concern to our CENTRAL MICHIGAN INSIDERS. The offensive line returns only a pair of starters and they are just one season removed from allowing 38 sacks. We are happy to see RB Jonathan Ward return for duty as he was one of the most underrated MACTION players in 2017 (1,019 yards rushing, 10 TD, 48 receptions, 3 TD).
Central Michigan averaged 28.5 PPG last season (#5 MAC) but we think they will struggle to reach that fgure in 2018.
DEFENSE
Let’s deal with the ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM frst. FIRE UP CHIPS will defnitely miss star DL Joe Ostman (1st Team MAC) who tied for the FBS lead in sacks last season (14). They return six starters to the stop unit this year including leading tackler Malik Fountain (2nd Team MAC) and four players that had at least seven TFL in 2017. The DL adds a couple of transfers including LARGE AND IN CHARGE DL Marcus Griffn from Arizona. We worry about a secondary that only returns one starter and suffered some key departures.
Central Michigan allowed 27.5 PPG last year (#7 MAC) and we forecast a similar placement this year.
SPECIAL TEAMS
RUH ROH.
The Chips averaged a measly 5.5 yards per punt return and PK Michael Armstrong hit just 2/6 FG from 30+ yards last year. The positive spin is that KR Jerrod Davis is back and he did a fne job in 2017 (26.6, 1 TD).
Schedule Analysis
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Overall – It’s not going to be easy to get to six wins. They have out-of- conference road dates with Kentucky and Michigan St (BODY BAG GAME) and trips to Northern Illinois and Toledo in MACTION ACTION.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Kansas (September 8). Seriously. No, we are serious. A yuuuuge game with Northern Illinois is on deck and the Jayhawks just might be a bit more trouble than you think.
Season Win Total
Over 4.5 -115
Under 4.5 -115
MEGALOCKS says:
Hmm. Neutral stance for the moment. We defnitely think the Chips are in for a tough year BUT the win total seems a bit low.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Central Michigan is one of just six FBS teams to boast a #1 pick in BOTH the NFL draft (OL Eric Fisher) and CFL draft (WR Mark Chapman). SHOCK the WORLD at your next MEANINGLESS OFFICE MEETING with that beauty.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 3.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the CHIPPEWAS a 3.0 ATS Value Rating (Below Average) this season.
This feels like a season to reload. The offense does not appear to be explosive enough to win games on their own, and that means that the defense will have to perform signifcantly above expectations in order to allow FIRE UP
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CHIPS to make a bowl game. A division crown seems out of the cards. Then again, these guys are tougher than twelve year-old beef jerky so you can never count them out. Just use caution when backing them vs the point spread.
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EASTERN MICHIGAN
2017 Recap Record – 5-7 ATS – 8-3-1
That was tough.
The Eagles showed up for every game last season but fell just short of back-to- back bowl invitations. They didn’t lose a single game by more than 12 points (!) and were particularly unfortunate during a stretch of six consecutive losses where they lost by a combined 23 points. We will get our SMOKING HOT MAC RESEARCH INTERNS on the case but truly believe that was an extremely rare occurrence.
Respect demands that we fnd out if the Eagles can to a bowl game this year.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
West Division – #2
MAC – #5
Eastern Michigan Eagles 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
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Here is the million-dollar question. Can the Eagles get decent MAC-LEVEL QB play out of Iowa transfer Tyler Wiegers? They are going to need solid quarterback performance given that 4/5 top targets from last season’s team are no longer on the roster. The strength of the offense lies in a deep RB group that includes seniors Ian Eriksen and Shaq Vann (1,300+ yards rushing, 11 TD LY). The offensive line looks to be in decent shape with 4/5 returning starters.
Eastern Michigan averaged 26.1 PPG (#7 MAC) last season and we fnd it hard to believe they can exceed that total unless they have unexpected explosive performance at the WR position and/or really good QB play.
DEFENSE
The Eagles were rock solid on defense last season and we expect another good performance. The 2017 group allowed just 23.3 PPG (#2 MAC) and 364 YPG (#2 MAC) whilst bagging 28 sacks (#3 MAC). This year they bring back seven starters including 1st Team MAC DE Maxx Crosby (11 sacks, 11 QBH) (!) and 2nd Team MAC selection DL Jeremiah Harris (12.5 TFL, 6 QBH). LB Brody Hoying was a 1st Team MAC honoree and the Eagles return all four starters in the secondary. This group should be able to more than hold their own in MACTION ACTION.
SPECIAL TEAMS
The Eagles’ return units were abysmal last year. The punting was average but PK Paulie Fricano made an acceptable 15/21 FG attempts in 2017. There is continuity on hand and we foresee an average performance from the group with some upside.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – It is not kind. They draw road dates with Purdue and San Diego St and a home game with Army in non-conference action. That feels like three losses. If they can cobble together some wins before the fnal month of the season they will be in good shape (fnish with Chips, Akron, Kent St).
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Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Western Michigan (October 6). This will be the Eagles’ 4th road game in fve weeks and they have not been a reliable road team in recent history.
Season Win Total
Over 5.5 -175
Under 5.5 +145
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean to the under. The Eagles will do well to tally six wins navigating this schedule with a new QB.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Do NOT adjust your sets. The Eagles play on a gray feld.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 3.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the EAGLES a 3.5 ATS Value Rating (Below Average) this season.
We may fnally agree with REGRESSION TO THE MEAN GUY. Statistical interpretation may not be his strong suit, but there is reason to believe that Eastern Michigan’s point spread prospects are less than optimal in 2018. The offense is breaking in a new QB and it remains to be seen how productive they can be in the passing game. The defense is solid but the schedule is a bit nasty.
The Eagles were an astounding 18-6-1 vs Vegas the past two seasons (congrats MEGALOCKS Season Preview reader members) but this feels
336 MEGALOCKS like a year in which they struggle vs the number. Place your wagers accordingly.
337 2018 SEASON PREVIEW
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
2017 Recap Record – 8-5 ATS – 6-7
Has the train slowed down?
After rattling off fve (!) consecutive double-digit win campaigns the Huskies have struggled (by their standards) to a 21-18 mark over the past three years. Northern Illinois was an impressive 8-3 at one point last year but lost a tough one to end the season (Central Michigan) and mailed it in for the bowl game.
Can these guys get back to the top of the MACTION MOUNTAIN?
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
West Division – #1
MAC – #2
Northern Illinois Huskies 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
338 MEGALOCKS
The QB job is ready for sophomore Marcus Childers unless 12th year senior Ryan Graham can fnd a way to wrestle the duties away. Childers had a decent freshman season throwing for 16 TDs and rushing for another fve TDs (473 rushing yards). The Huskies WR group lacks a proven #1 threat and hopefully someone can emerge in fall camp. Last season’s leading rusher Jordan Huff departs and Marcus Jones leads returning players with just 350 yards on the ground (2017). We feel really good about an offensive line that struggled last year (4.1 YPC, 27 sacks allowed) as they bring back all fve starters to the mix.
Northern Illinois has been SINKING in terms of point production. Their PPG output has decreased for four consecutive seasons (LY 28.9). We think they will be good in conference play but worry about their ability to score in the tough non-conference slate. More on that below.
DEFENSE
Yes, guy.
Any defense is going to LOVE having DE Sutton Smith as part of the equation. All Smith did last year was lead the FBS in TFL (29.5) and tally 14 sacks (T1 FBS). The Huskies boast the MAC’s best defensive line and have all four starters back for duty. That should help ease the transition to a new starting LB group that featured the team’s top-two tacklers in 2017. The secondary returns a pair of starters but will miss the presence of 1st Team MAC CB Shawun Lurry. On paper, this is the best defense in the division.
SPECIAL TEAMS
The kickoff return unit was decent last year (#3 MAC) but they will miss Chad Beebe (who also returned punts). The Huskies were fortunate to snag former Cincinnati PK Andrew Gantz who should provide a big upgrade when looking to hit 3-pointers.
Schedule Analysis
339 2018 SEASON PREVIEW
Overall – What in the SAM HILL is going on? The non-conference slate is over- the-top diffcult as they face Iowa, Florida St, and BYU on the road. They also play the Utes at home in week two and only have fve home games.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Akron (November 1). The Huskies need to travel to play the Zips on a Thursday night after playing a road game at BYU.
Season Win Total
Over 6.5 -120
Under 6.5 -110
MEGALOCKS says:
Neutral stance at the moment. We like the look of this team but seven wins is not a slam dunk.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
HC Rod Carey is 0-5 in bowl games despite a 44-24 overall record with the Huskies.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 6.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the HUSKIES a 6.0 ATS Value Rating (Above Average) this season.
It may not show up in the win column but Northern Illinois looks like the best team in the MAC West. If they can survive the early season schedule without losing the will to live they will be tough down the stretch. The upside is certainly there given the defense, OL, and young QB they bring to the
340 MEGALOCKS conversation. Keep them in mind when catching points on the road as they are on a 18-6 run vs the point spread in that situation.
341 2018 SEASON PREVIEW
TOLEDO
2017 Recap Record – 11-3 ATS – 7-7
Finally.
Toledo played some great football last season and won their frst MAC Championship since the 2004 season when they took down Miami Ohio. They only lost a pair of regular season games and both were understandable. Beatings at the hands of YOUR Miami Hurricanes and the tough Ohio Bobcats. They were a no-show in the Dollar General Bowl getting SKUNKED by Appalachian St 34- 0.
Can the Rockets make another title run without a lot of pieces from the excellent 2017 squad? Let’s examine.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
West Division – #3
MAC – #6
Toledo Rockets 2018 Outlook
342 MEGALOCKS
OFFENSE
The Rockets will need to deal with a yuuuuuge loss at QB as their all-time leading passer Logan Woodside departs for the NFL (Bengals). Woodside was the frst Toledo QB to be drafted since Bruce Gradkowski in 2006. It’s anyone’s guess who the starter will be come week one but the leader in the clubhouse just might be Eli Peters who transferred from Illinois. Toledo has pulled a rabbit out the hat at QB before so we are skeptical BUT aware that the quarterback situation may be better than anticipated. Whomever wins the starting gig will have the best WR group in the conference to help move the football. This elite unit features 1st Team MAC honoree Diontae Johnson (1,278, 13 TD LY) and Cody Thompson who bagged over 1,200 yards receiving in 2016 missed most of LY due to injury).
There is depth at RB even with the departure of last season’s leading rusher Terry Swanson (1,363, 14 TD).
DEFENSE
Toledo ranked #7 in total defense in the MAC last season and will move forward without four of their fve leading tacklers from the 2017 defense. Included in those departures is their former star DE Olasunkanmi Adeniyi who registered 20 (!) TFL and 9 QBH in 2017. The Rockets bring back their fne MLB Tyler Taffe and 3/4 starters to a secondary that allowed a mere 52.5% completions last season.
Toledo allowed 26.2 PPG in 2017 (#6 MAC) and we worry about the impact that a lack of experience on the DL will have to their overall performance. We forecast a result closer to the 30 PPG allowed mark.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Things are in really good shape. PK Jameson Vest was a 1st Team MAC selection who hit 25/30 (!) FG attempts last season. KR Diontae Johnson averaged 22.8 yards per KO return and took one to the house in 2017.
343 2018 SEASON PREVIEW
Schedule Analysis
Overall – Yikes. They start with a lay-up vs something called VMI then face a TRILOGY of HORROR in games two through four (Miami, Nevada, at Fresno St). They also face their main rival (Northern Illinois) away from home.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Fresno St (September 29). The Rockets fy out to California to take on a nasty Bulldogs squad the week before conference play starts.
Season Win Total
Over 8 -110
Under 8 -120
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean to the under. The non-conference schedule is going to make it challenging to get to nine wins and hit the over. Eight victories feels about right.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
NICK FREAKING SABAN coached the Rockets to a 9-2 mark in 1990. Amaze the DAFT SMOKESHOW in the cubicle next to you with that trivia bomb.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 3.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the ROCKETS a 3.5 ATS Value Rating (Below Average) this season.
It’s not usually a good idea to have an unfavorable opinion of the Rockets’ prospects but we have concerns on both sides of the ball. The QB situation is
344 MEGALOCKS a complete unknown and we do not see the defense being good enough to win the division. Maybe we are wrong?
The Rockets have been a 50/50 proposition vs the point spread over the past two seasons despite winning 20 games. We are going to take a pass until conference play begins.
345 2018 SEASON PREVIEW
WESTERN MICHIGAN
Recap Record – 6-6 ATS – 5-6-1
The Broncos missed out on a bowl game for the frst time since 2013 (!) despite fnishing with a record of 6-6. Their frst two games were really diffcult, almost to the point of being a cruel joke (at USC, at Michigan St). They held their own in those contests and got on a bit of a roll until their starting QB was knocked out for the year. Yes, they were not selected for a bowl game, but fans (and MEGALOCKS HQ) will always remember the insane 7-OT win over the Buffalo Bulls (71-68). That happened.
How about we examine their prospects for 2018?
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
MAC – Tied #7
West Division – #4
Western Michigan Broncos 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
346 MEGALOCKS
The Broncos appear to have one of the top QBs in the MAC leading the offense. Jon Wassink completed 64% of his passes with a fne 14-4 TD to INT ratio last year before getting injured. The passing game sputtered without him in the lineup but things should be fne this year with almost everyone in the WR group returning for duty . They will miss 2nd Team MAC TE Donnie Ernsberger (34- 394, 4 TD LY).
The strength in the Broncos’ offense has been a running game that has pounded out 200+ yards per game on average over the past three seasons. This season Western Michigan must deal with the loss of the program’s all-time leading rusher (!) Jarvion Franklin who had over 1,200 yards rushing last year. They appear to have some decent depth to work with as Jamauri Bogan and LeVante Bellamy combined for over 1,000 yards rushing and 6 TDs on the ground in 2017. As long as the offensive line can continue their fne work the Broncos should be able to continue scoring a lot of points. The OL returns 4/5 starters including 1st Team MAC C John Keenoy, although they will miss star LT Chukwuma Okorafor who is off to the NFL (Steelers).
DEFENSE
The Broncos played pretty sound defense last season (#55 FBS total defense) and the numbers look even better if you account for the fact that the game with Buffalo lasted almost two days. This season we are a bit worried about the stop unit as they only have fve returning starters and they bagged just 21 sacks a season ago (#9 MAC). They will also be without the top three tacklers from the 2017 team. The front seven is lacking in experience (and size?) but the secondary looks to be in good shape, even considering the loss of an NFL draft pick at CB (Darius Phillips – Bengals).
This feels like an average MAC defense.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Western Michigan was strong on special teams in 2017 but have a pair of under- the-radar losses to deal with this year. P Derrick Mitchell averaged close to 40
347 2018 SEASON PREVIEW yards net and KR Darius Phillips had a pair of TDs (26.3). PK Josh Grant is back and he nailed 15/23 FG attempts in 2017 (5/8 from 40+ yards).
Schedule Analysis
Overall – It doesn’t appear to be too bad. The visit to Michigan will be a BODY BAG GAME but they face Georgia St on the road instead of USC (2017). Almost all of their big conference tilts are at home.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Central Michigan (October 20). This will be the Broncos 4th roadie in fve weeks. FIRE UP CHIPS are coming off a home game with Ball St.
Season Win Total
Over – 6.5 -115
Under – 6.5 -115
MEGALOCKS says:
We will take a neutral stance for now. They defnitely have enough talent on offense to get to seven wins. We worry about the defense and the diffculty at the end of the docket (home dates with Toledo, Ohio, Northern Illinois in three of their last four games).
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Western Michigan is the only non-Power 5 school to have had an offensive lineman drafted in each of the past three NFL drafts. Startle your TRIGGER HAPPY COLLEGE BUDDY with that trivia gem next time you go hunting.
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MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 5.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the BRONCOS a 5.0 ATS Value Rating (Average) this season.
The Broncos were better than it appears last season. The schedule was unkind to say the least, and it’s not easy to play tough conference games without your starting QB. They appear to be a solid squad on paper this year but do not have same talent edge as in recent seasons.
The Broncos were essentially a .500 squad last year vs the point spread and we anticipate a similar result in 2018. Pick your spots.
349 2018 SEASON PREVIEW
MOUNTAIN WEST CONFERENCE
MOUNTAIN DIVISION
350 MEGALOCKS
AIR FORCE
2017 Recap Record – 5-7 ATS – 5-7
The Falcons struggled to a fve-win season and missed out on a bowl game for just the second time in eleven seasons (!) under the watch of HC Troy Calhoun. They fnished strong enough winning four of their fnal seven games so maybe, just maybe, they can can carry some momentum into this year. Let’s do a DEEP DIVE and fnd out if they are likely to get back to bowl season.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Mountain West – Tied #6
Mountain Division – Tied #4
Air Force Falcons 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Falcons have to be thrilled to have QB Arion Worthman back for one more season. All he did last year was lead the team in rushing yards (831) and rushing TDs (13) whilst throwing for another 10 TDs in just ten starts. Backup QB Isaiah Sanders led the team to a quality win over Utah St in the season fnale, so the
351 2018 SEASON PREVIEW
Falcons do indeed appear to be in great shape at quarterback. They hope to fnd some dangerous weapons at RB knowing they will be without their top-2 from last season including the reliable Tim McVey. The explosiveness was just not there in 2017 and the Falcons need to be able to hit some big plays in the running game. When they do decide to MATRICULATE down the feld in the passing game, Worthman will be glad to know that his top-3 WR all return and EACH of them averaged over 20 (!) yards per catch last year. Our primary worry in an offensive line that only returns one starter and 13 career starts (!) overall.
DEFENSE
Things need to improve on the defensive side of the ball if Air Force plans on returning to bowl season, or heaven forbid, contending for a division crown. Last season they yielded over 30 points (32.4) and 200 rushing yards (223) for the frst time since the 2013 season. This year they return six starters to the mix but it is unclear if they have the size or ability to achieve adequate PENETRATION (10 sacks LY – DEAD LAST FBS). It may seem trivial, but Air Force tallied 30,37 and 36 sacks in the prior three campaigns.
They have done well in the past with fewer returning starters but we are skeptical at this point in time.
SPECIAL TEAMS
We have a bit of concern. They must break in a new PK and the return game was abysmal last year. The good news is that P Charlie Scott is solid.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – It’s not diffcult at all. They don’t have to travel for an automatic loss like last season (Michigan – Congrats MEGALOCKS POSSE for supporting the cause in person) and their toughest out-of-conference test is a game at Florida Atlantic.
352 MEGALOCKS
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at UNLV (October 19). This is your standard sandwich situation (San Diego St / Boise St) and the Falcons have proven to be much better at home in recent times.
Season Win Total
Over 4.5 -130
Under 4.5 +110
MEGALOCKS says:
Strong lean to the over. You know they will beat Stony Brook. Can they fnd four more wins? Seems likely, yo.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
The Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy is awarded to the winner of the Army-Navy- Air Force series. A tie means the award is shared, but in the event of a tie, the previous season’s winner retains possession of the trophy.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 4.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the FALCONS a 4.0 ATS Value Rating (Average) this season.
It can’t hurt to have a rock solid QB. It all comes down the rushing attack being able to be effective AND scare defenses by hitting some big plays. That will open up the MATRICULATION down the feld. The defense has surprised us before but they were certainly sub-par in 2017.
353 2018 SEASON PREVIEW
They are defnitely not a consistent fade in our view, but we need to take a bit of a wait-and-see approach with these guys when it comes to the point spread.
354 MEGALOCKS
BOISE ST
2017 Recap Record – 11-3 ATS – 8-6
Yawn.
Boise St has reeled of EIGHT double-digit win campaigns in the last ten years. Last season they started out a bit slow losing two of their frst four contests, but then they caught their second win and rallied to a 9-1 fnish. Oh ya, they also bagged another Mountain West title. The Broncos seem to be hitting their stride again after the departure of HALL OF FAME HC Chris Peterson. Can they run the table and get into the playoff? Let’s examine.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Mountain Division – #1
Mountain West – #1
Boise St Broncos 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
355 2018 SEASON PREVIEW
It wasn’t all roses on the way to a Mountain West championship last year. As Phil Steele notes in the best annual college football magazine of all time, Boise St averaged their lowest YPG on the ground (144) in over 20 years in 2017. Brett Rypien gets some criticism but he still had a decent 16-6 TD to INT ratio last season whilst completing 62.6% of his passes. Rypien will need to MATRICULATE in the passing game without star WR Cedrick Wilson who is off to the NFL (Cowboys) as well as TE Jake Roh (39 receptions, 9 TD LY). Thankfully, 1,000-yard rusher Alexander Mattison is back for duty, although is there no proven production behind him on the depth chart. The offense will be good as always but they need the offensive line to step up in order to be a truly dominant unit.
DEFENSE
The Broncos were #22 in total defense last season and were good vs the run (#17) and the pass (#32 pass effciency D). They also achieved impressive PENETRATION as they led the MW in sacks (T1 – 34) and were #4 in the conference in TFL. Things look REALLY good this year with 10 starters returning to the mix, although the only loss is a superb player in LB Leighton Vander Esch (#1 NFL DC – Cowboys). The DL returns all four starters including sophomore Curtis Weaver who dominated with 11 sacks last year. More good news is a secondary that returns 4/4 starters including 1st Team MW performers CB Avery Williams and CB Tyler Horton. Opponents are going to have a hard time moving the ball on this group.
SPECIAL TEAMS
The kicking game should be fne with their senior combination of PK Haden Hoggarth (18/23 FG LY) and P Quinn Skillin back for duty. PR Avery Williams took a pair to the house last season. Good lookin’.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – It sets up well. The most diffcult test is a road game at Oklahoma St. They don’t have to deal with any back-to-back road games. They get San Diego St and Fresno St on the blue turf.
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Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Nothing really jumps out. They play Connecticut before the big game with Oklahoma St, but they get the Huskies at home, and UConn will likely get rolled up and smoked in this contest. No point spread may be big enough.
Season Win Total
Over 10 +105
Under 10 -125
MEGALOCKS says:
No lean yet. They look like the best team in the Mountain West on paper but they have not gone undefeated in the conference since 2009. Someone will probably get them. And if they lose to Oklahoma St that makes 10-2. Tough call.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Startle your boss at the next THREE BEER WORK LUNCH with this beauty. Boise St holds a trademark on any non-green feld, not just blue. If anyone wants to install a football feld in any other color than green, they need to apply for a license from Boise St.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 6.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the BRONCOS a 6.5 ATS Value Rating (Above Average) this season.
Could these guys sneak into the playoff? If they get past the Cowboys in week three things will become intriguing. The offense may not be a complete killer BUT the defense is going to be their best since the 2012 campaign. The Broncos have recorded double digit wins in eight of the past ten seasons, and
357 2018 SEASON PREVIEW their worst mark over that time horizon was an 8-5 “disaster” in 2013 in Chris Peterson’s fnal year as the head man.
Despite being a relatively public team, Boise has rattled off a 27-27 mark over HC Bryan Harsin’s four campaigns. Not great, not awful. Three of those years were overall winners ATS, with the only misstep being a 4-9 mark in 2016. It seems as though Boise has the potential to really take it to the weaker teams in the conference as the defense will be nasty.
We project another winning season vs Vegas, but keep in mind that Boise St has been weak ATS as a home favorite under Harsin (8-18, 31%) but stellar as road chalk 14-7 (67%).
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COLORADO ST
2017 Recap Record – 7-6 ATS – 4-9
The Rams busted out their 3rd consecutive 7-6 season under HC Mike Bobo, and once again, it ended in a bowl defeat. This time at the hands of Marshall. They were sitting at 6-2 and looking good until they lost three straight conference (and division) games to Air Force, Wyoming and Boise St. Now they have the challenge of replacing a ton of offensive production.
Can they stay relevant in the Mountain West this year? Let’s fnd out.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Mountain Division – Tied #4
Mountain West – Tied #6
Colorado St Rams 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
It’s going to be strange to see the Rams take the feld without their excellent signal caller Nick Stevens who graduated as their 2nd all-time leading passer
359 2018 SEASON PREVIEW whilst throwing for 3,799 yards and 29 TDs in 2017. Nobody else on the team attempted a pass. QB Collin Hill tore his ACL in the spring and it is almost certain that Washington grad transfer KJ Carta-Samuels will get the starting nod at QB. It’s anyone’s guess how he will perform on his new team, particularly with star WR Michael Gallup off to the NFL (Dallas). Last season’s #2 WR Olabasi Johnson is back (595, 2 TD) and they add Tennessee transfer Preston Williams. Let’s see if someone can emerge and become the next excellent Colorado St wideout.
More departure news occurs at RB where leading rusher Dalyn Dawkins moves on after posting a sweet 1,399 yard season to go along with 26 receptions. They still look to have some talent at the position. Success will ultimately be dictated by an offensive line that returns just a pair of starters. They do however have nice size, and the Rams have been a good running team since HC Bobo arrived.
DEFENSE
The Rams fnished up #97 in total defense last season and really started to get abused down the stretch. They only return fve starters to the mix this year but do return leading tackler LB Josh Watson (109 tackles, 5 TFL, 7 PBU) and #2 tackler LB Tre Thomas. New DC John Jancek (Kentucky staff LY) also has some decent size to work with at DT and a pair of returning starters in the secondary. We worry a bit about the ability to pressure the QB without leading sack man Evan Colorito (5.5 sacks, 12 TFL, 4 QBH).
SPECIAL TEAMS
The kicking game looks to be in great shape with PK Wyatt Bryan (15/18 LY; 5/6 from 40+) and P Ryan Stonehouse both back in the mix. The return units were average last season.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – It’s going to be challenging. There is no ROLL TIDE on the docket but three of the frst four games (Colorado, Arkansas, Florida) are going to be tough, and the division looks pretty deep.
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Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Nothing in particular stands out.
Season Win Total
Over 5.5 -120
Under 5.5 -110
MEGALOCKS says:
Feels like a perfect line. We can easily see this team heading into the fnal week at 5-6 with a game vs Air Force to determine bowl eligibility. Pass for now.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
The Rams only had TWO bowl appearances in school history before the arrival of legendary HC Sonny Lubick in 1993. They had NINE under his watch (1993- 2007).
A young URBAN MEYER spent time as WR coach on Lubick’s staff. Amaze your LASER TAG BUDDIES with that gem.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 2.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the RAMS a 2.5 ATS Value Rating (Poor) this season.
The Rams lose a mind-boggling amount of production on offense this year and will be really challenged to maintain their offensive excellence. We feel that the defense will be of similar quality to last season’s squad, but with a bit more downside risk (sacks? new DC?).
This will be a big test for HC Mike Bobo. He has a .500 mark ATS over his three-year run with the Rams (19-19-1) and it remains to be seen what kind
361 2018 SEASON PREVIEW of job he can do with an inexperienced squad. Feels like a team you should probably avoid when building your weekly card until we see what they are all about.
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NEW MEXICO
2017 Recap Record – 3-9 ATS – 4-8
Yikes.
The Lobos started off the season 3-2 and looked to be ready to make trouble for conference foes, but the wheels fell off in epic fashion as they lost the fnal seven games of the campaign. The QB situation was a mess, and that was a main contributor to the (-16) (!) turnover margin (#127 FBS) that is just impossible to overcome.
The Lobos won 16 games over the previous two seasons and hope to get back to winning ways in 2018.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Mountain Division – #6
Mountain West – #8
New Mexico Lobos 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
363 2018 SEASON PREVIEW
New Mexico will move away from the devastating (at times) option attack to a run-based spread system this season under the watch of new OC Calvin Magee (Arizona co-OC). This is one of the more interesting starting QB battles to watch as they have a couple of guys that got action last year (Tevaka Tuioti, Coltin Gerhart) and a JC transfer with a bit of Tennessee Vols pedigree (Sheriron Jones). They have a lot of speed at WR and some experience, but it remains to be seen how they will produce in the new offense. Leading rusher Tyrone Owens is back in the mix but they lose a lot of depth from last year’s RB corps. The offensive line returns just a pair of starters, but G Aaron Jenkins is an excellent piece.
New Mexico was ranked just #99 in total offense last year and managed a paltry 20.7 points per game after blowing up for 36.7 (!) in 2016. We expect growing pains but increased production from the offense.
DEFENSE
The Lobos’ defense was consistently put in harm’s way a lot last season due to the “offensive” offensive display (turnovers, ineffectiveness) yet still managed to hold opponents to under 400 yards per game. This season they bring back 6 starters and have talent at all three levels. DE Cody Baker returns to a line that did a fne job against the run last year, Alex Hart is an experienced MLB and they have two really strong senior CBs that combined for 21 (!) PBUs in 2017. The group doesn’t look overwhelming on paper but they will probably have another decent run.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Danger! Danger!
The Lobos lose a fantastic kicking duo in PK Jason Sanders (NFL – Dolphins) and P Coery Bojorquez (42.0 net LY). They bring back dangerous KR Elijah Lilly but need to do something better than “horrible” on punt returns (3.41 yards per return – #124 FBS). There could be problems.
Schedule Analysis
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Overall – It’s back-end loaded for sure. They have a BODY BAG SPECIAL with Wisconsin in week two, but other than that game, the Lobos have a shot in every one. The last six games look pretty nasty.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Wisconsin (September 8).
Season Win Total
Over 4 -105
Under 4 -125
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean to the over. Incarnate Word and Liberty should both be wins. You can do the math after that.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
The Rio Grande Rivalry with New Mexico St dates back to 1894. That’s eighteen years before New Mexico achieved statehood.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 4.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the LOBOS a 4.5 ATS Value Rating (Slightly Below Average) this season.
We were originally a bit more negative on their prospects but have come around after doing some additional work. The offense may take a while to gel given the new system in place, but there is some talent to work with at
365 2018 SEASON PREVIEW
QB, and they will beneft from being more balanced in their approach. The defense has enough good players to make us think they can hold serve.
HC Bob Davie has a 36-38 (48.6%) record vs the point spread with the Lobos and we forecast another season around .500. Not a complete toss when building your weekly cards.
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UTAH ST
2017 Recap Record – 6-7 ATS – 6-7
These guys are scrappy.
The Aggies were a pretty inexperienced squad but still managed to snag another bowl invite. HC Matt Wells has led them to bowl season in four of his fve seasons as HC at Utah St. They didn’t beat a collection of great teams (Idaho St, San Jose St, Hawaii, etc.) but still get credit for fnding a way to win six games. They lost in OT to New Mexico St in the Arizona Bowl to end the campaign.
Can a more seasoned team give Boise St a run in the Mountain division?
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Mountain Division – #2
Mountain West – #4
Utah St Aggies 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
367 2018 SEASON PREVIEW
The Aggies had a decent offense last season (#68) but did most of their damage against the really poor defenses on the schedule. They may have uncovered a gem in QB Jordan Love who started the last six games and played reasonably well as a redshirt freshman. This season Love gets to work behind a very experienced offensive line that returns all fve starters, four of which are seniors. The top two wide receivers return from last season’s squad and they also boast a solid TE in Dax Raymond who caught 41 balls in 2017. The Aggies move on without leading rusher LaJuan Hunt and nobody on the roster had more than 300 (!) yards rushing last year. It feels like it will be a committee approach, maybe ultimately going with a hot hand. The offensive line should be able to allow the Aggies to have balance, but hopefully they can fnd some explosive plays.
DEFENSE
Utah St has had uncharacteristic trouble stopping the run the past two campaigns (217 YPG LY, 203 in 2016) but they should be back to their normal stingy selves. They return nine starters including all three on the DL and 3/4 in the linebacker corps. The main issues we see are the potential lack of PENETRATION (24 sacks LY, #5 MW) and key losses in the secondary (AA CB Jalen Davis, S Dallin Leavitt). Having said that, Utah St has allowed an average of just 55% completions over the past six seasons. The Aggies allowed 26.9 points per game last year and we forecast a 4-5 PPG improvement.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Yes, guy.
Utah St was great in this department last year and we look for more of the same. PK Dominik Eberle was a 3rd Team AA (!) in 2017 and P Aaron Dalton did a fne job as well. The return units were decent and KR Savon Scarver took one the distance. This is a big relative advantage for the Aggies when stacking them up against other Mountain West teams.
Schedule Analysis
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Overall – The road schedule is pretty nasty (Michigan St, Boise St, Wyoming, BYU, Colorado St, travel to Hawaii) and the Aggies are a much better team at home.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – San Jose St (November 10). Haaaaaaaaaaaaaaa.
No but seriously, they will have just fown back from Hawaii and have road games (potentially important ones) with Colorado St and Boise St on deck. And they will be laying a ton of points. May want to stay clear of backing the Aggies in this game.
Season Win Total
Over 7.5 -110
Under 7.5 -120
MEGALOCKS says:
No play as of yet. We like their prospects vs the point spread quite a bit (see below) but are a little taken back by the 7.5 win total that is surprisingly sharp.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Fun with numbers. Utah St has an all-time record of 540-540-31. That’s .500, kids.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 9.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the AGGIES a 9.0 ATS Value Rating (Excellent) this season.
369 2018 SEASON PREVIEW
Utah St looks like a sleeper contender in the Mountain West. The offense should be sneaky good, especially if they can fnd more big plays from their running backs and wide receivers. Remember that they scored 30 points per game last season with average QB play, no 1,000-yard rusher and no 600- yard receiver. The defense will be a lot better with so much experience returning AND they have a recent history of surprising people with solid stop units.
HC Matt Wells has a mediocre 28-34 mark vs the point spread (45%) but we feel that the stars are aligned for a good season vs Vegas. Utah St rattled off a stretch of 8+ ATS wins (4/6 years from 2008-2013) that was impressive, and one that did not go unnoticed by MEGALOCKS MOUNTAIN WEST INSIDERS. The added bonus is that these guys are tougher than a night in jail.
Put them on the watch list to start the season.
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WYOMING
2017 Recap Record – 8-5 ATS – 8-5
Just win, baby.
The Pokes pulled a bit of a magic trick last season riding a great defense, mediocre offense and insane turnover margin (+24) to a successful 8-win campaign, despite being outgained by over 600 yards from start to fnish. Four of their fve losses came vs Iowa, Boise St, Oregon and Fresno St, so they did a really good job of winning the games that they were supposed to win (not as easy as it sounds).
Can they get back to the Mountain West title game in 2018? (lost to San Diego St in 2016)
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Mountain Division – #3
Mountain West – #5
Wyoming Cowboys 2018 Outlook
371 2018 SEASON PREVIEW
OFFENSE
Take a picture. That is the frst and last time you will see an offense led by a #1 NFL draft pick average less than 300 yards per contest. Star QB Josh Allen had some battles with injuries but the Cowboys were pretty anemic (#125 offense FBS). They will try and get the #117 ground attack ignited with an offensive line that brings back four starters, and a running back collection that includes their top-2 rushers from 2017. It’s unclear if there is a star in the bunch, but they are sure to average more than 109 YPG on the ground. The WR group is experienced but nobody registered more than 600 yards receiving last season despite playing with one of the (apparently) greatest QBs of all time. Speaking of QBs, the Cowboys will almost certainly go with a redshirt freshman (Tyler Vander Waal) under center, and it’s hard to say at this juncture how he will perform in his frst year as the starting quarterback.
DEFENSE
The defense was fantastic last season allowing just 17.5 points and 335 YPG (#23 FBS). They were incredibly opportunistic forcing an FBS-high 38 (!) turnovers and recovering 18 fumbles in the process (also #1 FBS). This season they bring back 9 starters to their excellent stop unit including 6/7 at DL and LB. LB Logan Wilson led the team with 119 tackles in 2017 and DE Carl Granderson bagged 9.5 sacks (16 TFL) while DT Youhanna Ghaifan tallied another 7 (15.5 TFL). The Pokes only return one starter in the secondary but SS Andrew Wingard is a fantastic player (114 tackles, 8 TFL, 5 INT LY) and CB Antonio Hull returns after missing almost all of last season. This defense will be one of the best in the Mountain West.
SPECIAL TEAMS
The Cowboys look set here. PK Cooper Rothe connected on 15/18 FGs last year and sophomore P Tim Zaleski should improve in his second season. KR Tyler Hall bagged 2 TDs in 2017.
Schedule Analysis
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Overall – It really isn’t that bad. There isn’t a game on the docket that they absolutely cannot win. They get Boise St, Utah St and Washington St at home.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – October 6 (at Hawaii). The Cowboys will have just played a yuuuuuge game against Boise St with a road trip to Fresno St on deck. And as you know, anything can happen in games played in Hawaii.
Season Win Total
Over 6.5 -120
Under 6.5 -110
MEGALOCKS says:
Tough call. Slightest of leanage to the over as we go to press. It’s not an overwhelming schedule but there are more than a handful of games that could go either way.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Wyoming plays their home games at the highest elevation in the FBS (7,220 feet above sea level).
Several well-known head coaches have led the team in Laramie including Bob Devaney, Pat Dye, Dennis Erickson and Joe Tiller.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 5.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the COWBOYS a 5.5 ATS Value Rating (Slightly Above Average) this season.
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This should be interesting. The Cowboys’ defense will be solid, but they lose a #1 DC at QB. Then again, how could the offense possibly be any worse than last year? And then yet again, can anyone on the planet expect them to come close to the +24 turnover margin they recorded last year? These are the Days Of Our Lives.
HC Craig Bohl has done a wonderful job rebuilding this program, and has also led them to an 18-9 (67%) mark vs the point spread over the past two campaigns. It’s hard to give a well-coached team with a good defense anything less than a neutral ATS rating for the season. Our optimism is tempered by the youth at QB and the reality that at some point the turnover margin has to regress just a wee bit.
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MOUNTAIN WEST CONFERENCE
WEST DIVISION
375 2018 SEASON PREVIEW
FRESNO ST
2017 Recap Record – 10-4
ATS – 10-2-2
Hell-O !
Fresno did the near-impossible last season going from double-digit losses to a 10- 4 record. They almost took down the Mountain West title but fell to Boise St in a close game that went to the wire. Their accomplishment is even more impressive when you consider that two of their other three losses came on the road vs ROLL TIDE and Washington. They somehow lost to UNLV as 20+ point favorites (980 STAR MEGALOCKS SILVER DOLLAR LOCK LOSER) but all was forgotten when they left the feld at the Hawaii Bowl with a well deserved win over Houston (80,000 STAR PLATINUM LATE PHONE RELEASE WINNER).
Can they keep the momentum going and challenge for the Mountain West crown once again?
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
West Division – Tied #1
376 MEGALOCKS
Mountain West – Tied #2
Fresno St Bulldogs 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
QB Marcus McMaryion proved to be just what the doctor ordered as he tossed 14 TD passes and ran for another 4 scores whilst only throwing 5 INTs in 351 attempts. McMaryion was a game manager but more than capable of pushing the envelope a bit when needed (342 yards passing in bowl win over Houston). This season he will be complemented by a deep and talented group of running backs and a fantastic set of wide receivers. Senior wideout KeeSean Johnson tallied over 1,000 yards last year and Jamire Jordan averaged over 20 yards per catch. They also add Oklahoma transfer Michiah Quick to the mix in 2018. If the offensive line can come together without departed senior Aaron Mitchell, the Bulldogs are going to have a very formidable offense.
DEFENSE
Fresno St played great defense last year (#15 FBS) and only allowed 17.9 PPG (30.9 in 2016). They were good vs the pass (#33 pass effciency D) and even better against the run (#11). They also bagged 33 sacks which ranked them #1 in the Mountain West. This year the entire starting LB group returns including 1st Team MW honoree Jeffrey Allison, as well as 4/4 starters in the secondary. The worry on defense is a line that loses all four (!) starters from last season’s excellent group. That is a lot of lost experience and sacks. They will also have a new DC this year.
SPECIAL TEAMS
The Bulldogs are really going to miss their excellent PK Jimmy Camacho who nailed 25/32 FG attempts last year. P Blake Cusick did a decent job. The return units could use some additional spice.
Schedule Analysis
377 2018 SEASON PREVIEW
Overall – It’s not too scary, but the non-conference games with Minnesota, UCLA and Toledo will be a tough stretch to get through without dropping a game. Their only diffcult conference road game (on paper) is the visit to Boise St in November.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Boise St (November 9). This will be their 3rd road game in four weeks and they have lost nine straight times on the SMURF TURF.
Season Win Total
Over 8 -105
Under 8 -125
MEGALOCKS says:
Neutral stance at the moment. It’s hard to see this team losing fve games (lose the over play) and it will be tough to get to 9+ (winner winner, chicken dinner).
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Fresno St did not have anyone taken in the most recent NFL draft. That’s the 3rd straight season that has happened and is the longest streak in school history.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 5.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the BULLDOGS a 5.5 ATS Value Rating (Slightly Above Average) this season.
The Bulldogs look like major players in the Mountain West. The offense should be improved, while the defense may take a step backwards.
378 MEGALOCKS
Hopefully they can fnd a reliable PK. The non-conference games will be a bit of a grind but they are set up well in the conference schedule.
Fresno St is 16-7-3 (69.6%) vs the point spread over the past two seasons, but they may fnd it tougher sledding this year being the huntED and not the huntER. Degenerate nation will probably not look past them either. Value will be tougher to fnd but keep them in mind most weeks.
379 2018 SEASON PREVIEW
HAWAII
2017 Recap Record – 3-9 ATS – 3-8-1
Ouch.
Hawaii started out with a good road win over a scrappy Massachusetts squad and followed it up with a victory over FCS foe Western Carolina. Sadly, a 2-0 start led to a 1-9 fnish, and they fnished up with a disappointing mark of 3-9. They were competitive against some good teams (Wyoming, Fresno St) but could not SHOCK the WORLD.
Lots of changes going on this year. Let’s see what to expect.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
West Division – #6
Mountain West – #12
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
380 MEGALOCKS
Get cho’ popcone!
Hawaii plans on returning to the run-and-shoot offense and that will at least make these guys FUN to watch once again. There is the slight problem of the unexpected transfer of #1 QB Dru Brown (Oklahoma St) but hopefully sophomore Cole McDonald is the man for the job. The potential for big numbers in this offense is there for the taking. Early reports from the spring suggest he will be ready. McDonald (or someone else) will have at least one fantastic WR to work with in John Ursua who was off to a great start last season before getting injured. They have lost a lot of depth in the receiving corps and that could cause some growing pains early in the season. Pass protection will be key and the Warriors have allowed 30+ sacks in four of the past fve seasons. We are concerned about an offensive line that only returns a pair of starters.
The RB unit is a complete mystery given the graduation of the program’s 2nd all- time leading rusher Diocemy Saint Juste. (1,510, 7 TD LY). The rushing attack is not a big part of the run-and-shoot but you still have to run the ball every so often.
DEFENSE
The Warriors allowed 33.9 PPG last year and have yielded 30+ in four of the last fve campaigns. They didn’t do much right last year fnishing #110 in run defense and #125 in pass effciency D. Only fve starters return to the stop unit and the best news is a pair of solid LBs including leading tackler and 2nd Team MW honoree Jahlani Tavai (124 tackles, 11 TFL, 5 QBH). There is not much returning experience on the DL and the secondary is a worry (29 TD passes allowed LY). Their prospects may be buoyed by the addition of JC transfers and a schedule that is light on good passing teams. We expect another season of allowing over 30 PPG.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Sometimes the awesome Phil Steele mag will amaze you even after all these years. Page 254 notes that Hawaii went the entire season without making a FG at home. That happened. They were only 4/9 on the season and need to fgure this
381 2018 SEASON PREVIEW feld-goal-thing out fast. The return units were awful last year. At least P Stan Gaudion is back. This feels like a problem area.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – The frst thing to note is that they play 13 games. The home and road games are nicely spaced out and there are defnitely some winnable games on the card.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at San Diego St (November 24). The season is probably a done deal at this point and it’s probable that they used the previous game (home to UNLV) as their “bowl game”. This is a nasty way to end the season and we will probably avoid backing the Rainbow Warriors in this spot, even when we are certain to be catching a lot of points.
Season Win Total
Over 3.5 -120
Under 3.5 -110
MEGALOCKS says:
Neutral stance for now although we have the slightest of slight leans to the over. The team looks very weak on paper but they do have meetings with Rice, Duquesne and San Jose St to look forward to this season. And don’t forget that they play 13 games.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Hawaii had a positive turnover margin (+1) (woo hoo!) last season for the frst time since 2010 when they were (+12). It’s not a surprise they won 10 games that year. Yup, their last winning campaign.
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MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 1.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the RAINBOW WARRIORS a 1.0 ATS Value Rating (Avoid) this season.
We are thrilled to see Hawaii move back to the offense that has made them so much fun to watch. It’s great for the fans and probably the best way to be competitive in the Mountain West. It’s also a bonus for Degenerate Nation who likes to get down on late-night Hawaii games. Just kidding. Not really.
This is a clear rebuilding project with so many transfers and roster attrition. Questions abound everywhere. It’s not like there isn’t some upside, especially at QB, but it seems prudent to avoid backing this squad vs the point spread until they prove things are not a complete and total hot mess.
We are cheering for them. Let’s hope they get it turned around quickly!
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NEVADA
Recap Record – 3-9 ATS – 6-6
Nevada got off to a rough 1-8 start in Jay Norvell’s frst year as HC but they started to play better as the season progressed. Knocking the hated Rebels out of bowl contention by winning the Fremont Cannon had to feel pretty good. Speaking of the Rebels, they lost to Howard (!) as 45-point favorites. Nevada said, “Hold My Beer” and lost to something called Idaho St as 30-point chalk.
Let’s see if the Wolfpack are well positioned to show improvement in Norvell’s second year.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
West Division – Tied #3
Mountain West – Tied #9
Nevada Wolfpack 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
384 MEGALOCKS
The Air Raid offense started to hum over the 2nd half of the season as QB Ty Gangi took hold of the QB duties. The senior comes back after throwing 25 TD passes and tallying the 3rd most rushing yards on the team (180, 4 TD). Gangi will be surrounded with fne weapons including two of their top-three WRs from last season (McLane Mannix – 2nd Team MW, Brenden O’Leary-Orange – 15.8 YPR) and essentially the entire RB corps. The OL did a fne job in pass protection as they allowed just 16 sacks in well over 400 (!) attempts. They lose a 2nd round NFL draft pick on the OL (Austin Corbett – Cleveland) but do return 3/5 starters including senior C Sean Krepsz. If the big boys can pick up where they left off last season the Pack will be dangerous on offense. In any event, they should score over 30 PPG for the frst time since 2012 (37.8).
DEFENSE
Ya, it was pretty much a hot mess. Nevada fnished last year ranked #119 in total defense and they were equally horrible vs the run (#109) and the pass (#121 pass effciency D). The Pack should be better in the 2nd season under new DC Jeff Casteel who runs the relatively uncommon 3-3-5 confguration. It appears that they have added beef and depth on the DL, and they return some nice pieces in LB Malik Reed (1st Team MW honoree; 8 sacks LY) and S Dameon Baber (2nd Team MW). The bad news is that they will have a hard time replacing their excellent LB Austin Paulhus who led the team with 112 tackles and 14.5 (!) TFL in 2017. They are also inexperienced at CB.
There is defnitely room for improvement. If they can get the PPG closer to 30 (33.9 LY) it feels like they will have a pretty good season.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Nevada did a poor job punting last season (34.4 net – #122 FBS) and were a disaster on kickoff returns (16.7 – #128 FBS). PK Spencer Pettit was just 1/3 on FG from 40+ yards. Improvement is sorely needed.
Schedule Analysis
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Overall – Very nice. The out of conference schedule of Portland St, Vanderbilt, Oregon St and Toledo is not easy, but it’s not a killer. All of their conference road games are winnable although they did go winless away from home last year.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Toledo (September 22). The Rockets beat Nevada 37-24 in Reno last year and this game pops up the week before conference play starts (at Air Force).
Season Win Total
Over 6 +115
Under 6 -115
MEGALOCKS says:
Strong lean to the over. They have a shot in every game and the end of the schedule provides a bailout plan should they struggle early.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Nevada and UNLV will face each other November 24th in another battle for the Fremont Cannon. The trophy is a replica of the cannon that explorer John C Fremont had with him on an expedition to Nevada in the 1800s. It is the heaviest trophy in college football. Fire up that tidbit at your next LAME COMPANY BARBECUE.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 6.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the WOLFPACK a 6.5 ATS Value Rating (Above Average) this season.
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There is some nice upside in Reno. The offense should be really tough to stop and the defense has nowhere to go but up. We aren’t crazy about the look of the special teams and Mike Norvell is still an unproven commodity as HC. Having said all of that, the schedule is exactly the tonic this team needs to improve, and we expect to see them bowling.
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SAN DIEGO ST
2017 Recap Record – 10-3 ATS – 8-5
It was just another day at the offce for the Aztecs who reeled off their third consecutive double-digit win campaign. They missed out on a shot at the conference title after losing back-to-back games to rivals Boise St and Fresno St, but they did bag wins over PAC-12 members Stanford and Arizona St.
The expectation every year should be to win the Mountain West. How do things look this season?
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
West Division – Tied #1
Mountain West – Tied #2
San Diego Aztecs 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
Senior QB Christian Chapman is not fashy, but he is undoubtedly a perfect ft for the offense. Chapman completed 60% of his passes last year and only threw 4
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INT in 243 attempts. Taking care of the ball is paramount in this offense that relies on pounding defenses with the rushing attack. Chapman will have to MATRICULATE in the passing game this year without WR Mikah Holder who was the only player on the team last season with more than 20 (!) receptions and 400 (!) yards receiving. It’s unclear what kind of talent is left on the depth chart.
The big news is the departure of phenomenal RB Rashaad Penny who fnished 5th in the Heisman voting and was taken in the frst round of the NFL draft (New England). Penny recorded an amazing 2,248 yards rushing and 27 TDs (23 rushing, 2 receiving, 2 on KR). RB Juwan Washington averaged 6 yards per carry last year and will be given the task of trying to replace Penny’s legendary production. The good news is that the offensive line returns all fve starters and they paved the way for 252 yards rushing per contest in 2017.
It will be interesting to see if Chapman and the San Diego St offense can average 30+ points per game for the 4th consecutive season. The passing attack looks weak on paper but they have surprised us on more than one occasion.
DEFENSE
You can’t talk about the Aztecs without discussing the seemingly endless seasons of solid defense. San Diego St fnished last year ranked #11 in total defense but recorded the fewest sacks (23) since 2014 when they tallied 26. This year they return seven starters including seven of their top-10 tacklers from the 2017 stop unit. The DL play is always solid, LB Ronley Lakalaka (1st Team MW) led the team in tackles last year and DB Tariq Thompson was a 2nd Team MW selection as a true freshman (!). The defense relies on speed and deception, and when you have the talent that they do, it makes things really diffcult for the opposition.
SPECIAL TEAMS
PK John Baron is back for duty and he made 12/15 FG attempts last season (1/3 from 40+). P Brandon Heicklen had a poor 33.9 yard net, and they will miss Penny on KR (2 TD LY). Thankfully, Juwan Washington also returned a pair of KR for TDs last year. Feels like a mixed bag.
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Schedule Analysis
Overall – There are some tough road games (Stanford, Boise, Fresno) but the Aztecs have proven themselves to be a solid team away from home. Feels like they should be able to navigate it without a ton of problems.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Nothing of note.
Season Win Total
Over 8.5 +105
Under 8.5 -135
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean to the over at press time. The Aztecs have only lost four road games in the past three years. Even if you chalk up Stanford as a loss, they still need to burn three more times. The plus money on the over is a bit tempting.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
The Aztecs are a combined +43 (!) in turnover margin the past three years. That will certainly help you tally 32 wins over that time horizon.
Rocky Long has a 4-8 career record in bowl games (3-4 at San Diego St).
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 6.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the AZTECS a 6.0 ATS Value Rating (Above Average) this season.
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It’s going to be a familiar recipe. Run the ball. Play great defense. Win the turnover battle. They have the talent to pull off another double-digit win season and give Fresno all they can handle in the battle for the division. A small part of our brain cannot help but wonder how effective the offense will be without Rashaad Penny, and with an unproven WR group.
HC Rocky Long has covered the point spread 54% of the time at San Diego St. There have been six (!) consecutive winning ATS campaigns. Take special note of these guys when conference season starts as they are consistent money-makers in those spots.
It’s tempting to call the market top on this team, but we just can’t do it yet.
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SAN JOSE ST
2017 Recap Record – 2-11 ATS – 5-7-1
Where do we start?
The Spartans had a miserable campaign fnishing up with just a pair of wins. They did manage to SHOCK THE WORLD in the fnal week of the season by beating Wyoming (sans Josh Allen) but that was the only victory they recorded over an FBS team. They were ranked #120 in offense, #124 in defense and had an impossible (-26) turnover margin. Let’s do a DEEP DIVE and see if there is any reason for hope on the horizon.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Mountain West – #11
West Division – #5
San Jose St Spartans 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
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The Spartans return both QBs that received signifcant playing time last year and the stats for both men were very similar. Josh Love completed 54% of his passes with a 5-7 TD to INT ratio. True freshman Montel Aaron connected on 56% of his attempts with a 8-10 TD to INT mark. The passing numbers should improve this season if either quarterback takes a step forward as all the receiving targets return from the 2017 team. The RB unit brings back the top-5 and the Spartans should be able to fnd a hot hand.
The YUUUUGE question mark is the offensive line. San Jose St rushed for only 120 YPG last season and allowed a very painful 36 sacks. That was an improvement from the legendary DEBACLE of 2016 in which they yielded 50 sacks, but it is still way too many to allow if you want to have consistency on offense. This year the offensive line is extremely inexperienced and it’s hard to say if that is a good thing, or a bad thing.
There is potential to be better on offense (15.8 PPG LY, #125 FBS) but the offensive line could ruin the best laid plans if they do not improve signifcantly in 2018.
DEFENSE
The light at the end of the tunnel could be an oncoming train, but it could also be the promise of a half-decent defensive line. They were ripped apart by opponents’ rushing attacks last year but hopefully a more experienced DL can help stop the bleeding. The Spartans’ other big task aside from stopping the run will be to replace the amazing production of LB Frank Ginda. All he did last year was tally 173 (!!!) tackles (#1 FBS) and lead the team in TFL with 13. We worry most about the secondary as the Spartans allowed 61.6% completions in 2017 and only bagged 6 INT.
They may not yield 41.7 points per game but it still feels like the worst defense in the conference.
SPECIAL TEAMS
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Let’s start with the positive. PK Bryce Crawford made 14/17 FGs last year including an outstanding 7/10 from 40+ yards. The negative would be the departure of excellent P Michael Carrizosa. The return units were a mixed bag last season (KO – OK, PR – yuck).
Schedule Analysis
Overall – We will try and avoid sarcasm for the frst time in a while. It’s a tough dance card. There are road games at Washington St and Oregon (have fun with that one, yo) in non-conference play, and conference road affairs feature games with San Diego St, Fresno St, Utah St and Wyoming.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Army (October 13). Hide the men, women and children. This is a conference sandwich (Colorado St, San Diego St) and it’s never fun playing Army with only a week to prepare. Take the over 78,000 on rushing yards for Army for one billion IMAGINARY TWITTER UNITS.
Season Win Total
Over 2.5 -120
Under 2.5 -110
MEGALOCKS says:
Neutral view as we go to press. Sure, they should beat something called UC Davis in week one, but if they don’t, the under is GOLD. It feels like three wins is not out of the question. Have fun if you throw down some pizza money.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
The San Jose St football team was stranded in Hawaii after the attack on Pearl Harbor and temporarily served with the Honolulu Police Department. Don’t say we fail to deliver historical knowledge bombs.
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MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 2.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the SPARTANS a 2.0 ATS Value Rating (Avoid) this season.
There are so many annoying sayings in the business world. “Let’s take that issue to the parking lot“. “How about a deep dive on the pathetic state of our sales?” Another one of our favorites? “It is what it is“. That is the state of the Spartans at this point in time. It won’t always be like this, but it feels like another long season ahead. The state of the offensive line and the overall talent level on defense give us sleepless nights.
San Jose St was dreadful last year but still fnished 5-7-1 against the point spread. It seems highly unlikely that they exceed market expectations, although we will concede that the bottom feeders often get a bunch of extra points on the Vegas line, allowing them to achieve sweet BACKDOOR ACTION. ($)
We feel that the most prudent betting approach is to avoid backing this squad unless it becomes evident that we have completely missed the mark. That has happened more than once. (we determined that when doing a deep dive on our predictions)
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UNLV
2017 Recap Record – 5-7 ATS – 6-6
It was….A Bridge Too Far.
UNLV needed to beat their bitter rival from Reno in the season fnale to qualify for bowl eligibility. They had the lead in the 2nd half but couldn’t close the deal. It’s painful to look back and see what could have been. They lost to something called Howard in week one. They blew a 27-CACK lead at Air Force. They did however, fail to quit, and emerged victorious in three of their fnal fve games. That stretch included a road win over Fresno St (!).
Can the Rebels take a small step forward and get themselves a bowl invite?
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
Mountain West – Tied #9
West Division – Tied #3
UNLV Rebels 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
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The Rebels have an emerging star at QB in Armani Rogers who showed fashes of what is to come during his freshman campaign. Rogers rushed for 780 yards and 8 TDs and threw 6 TD passes last season and missed some action due to injury. The WR group loses their #1 receiver Devonte Boyd but bring back #2, #3 and #4. Rogers will need to improve his accuracy (52.4% LY) to get the most out of the passing game.
The real treat in the offense is star RB Lexington Thomas who enters his senior season coming off a fantastic 1,300-yard performance last year while rushing for 17 TDs and gaining over 6 yards a pop. They also get back RB Charles Williams who missed almost all of last season due to injury. The offensive line has paved the way for 240 or more rushing yards in each of the past two seasons and they return 3/5 starters to the mix. Rogers and Thomas are a dynamic combination and we expect UNLV to increase their scoring production in 2018 (28.8 PPG LY).
DEFENSE
UNLV featured an inexperienced unit last season but still managed to hold opponents to 31.8 PPG, their lowest total since 2013 (also 31.8 PPG). They did give up a ton of yards (#113 total defense) and had all kinds of trouble stopping the run (#122 FBS). This year they bring back seven starters including the entire starting LB group. A pair of starters return in the secondary including leading tackler S Dalton Baker. They have added JC transfers to the DL and need to get at least “average” performance out of the defensive front in order to make meaningful strides.
Hopefully new DC Tim Skipper (Florida staff LY) can make a bit of a difference. His biggest challenge is going to be getting the Rebels to increase their PENETRATION level as they only compiled 11 (!) sacks in 12 games last year. In fact, UNLV has ranked #126, #103 and DEAD LAST in sacks over the past three seasons and totaled a mere 39 (!) over that time span. New Mexico St had 43 last season alone.
SPECIAL TEAMS
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Uh, oh. The return units were dismal last season and the punting was worse (#127 net punting; 30.6 yard net). PK Evan Pantels made 17/22 FG attempts but was just 6/11 from 40+ yards. This could be a problem area.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – It looks very manageable. The opening game at USC will be really tough but the rest of the schedule is not bad at all. It can’t hurt to have UTEP and Prairie View A&M on the dance card (yes, we know they lost to Howard last year). Unfortunately they have the rivalry date with Nevada right after a game in Hawaii.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Hawaii (November 17). They play the nasty defense of San Diego St on November 10th and will not have time to fully ice their aching bodies before they fy out to Hawaii. Nevada is on deck.
Season Win Total
Over 6 -135
Under 6 +105
MEGALOCKS says:
Hmm. We were hoping for a 5.5 to take a small taste of the over. Six wins at a steep price is too much for our liking right now. Our best guess is that they will head into the season fnale with fve or six wins.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
The Rebels have not had a HC leave the program with a winning record since Tony Knap’s epic run from 1976-1981 (47-20-2; .696). Amaze your SMOKESHOW YOGA INSTRUCTOR with that gem.
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MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 5.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the REBELS a 5.5 ATS Value Rating (Slightly Above Average) this season.
Enough, already. AMIRITE?
HC Tony Sanchez has quietly led the team to increased win totals in each of his three seasons, from two wins in 2014, to fve victories in 2017. The rushing attack has the potential to be really scary with a pair of high-octane backs and a mobile QB. If Rogers can take a step forward is his development, the Rebels will have more than enough frepower to win 6+ games. The question is the defense. Their stop unit still has to be considered one of the worst in the conference on paper, but then again, the games are played on the feld. Maybe the new DC will have an answer?
UNLV has a 12-12 ATS mark over the past two seasons. It’s probably best to pick your spots with the Rebels vs the point spread. Keep in mind that Sanchez has an impressive 11-4 ATS mark as a road dog. Not saying, just saying.
Go Rebels!
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PAC 12
NORTH DIVISION
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CALIFORNIA
2017 Recap Record – 5-7 ATS – 8-4
We might have used this opening before, but it was A BRIDGE TOO FAR.
Cal exceeded our expectations last season and were SO CLOSE to getting a bowl bid. They lost a tight one at UCLA in the season fnale and that was the end of the story. The good news is that noticeable improvements were made in their performance and they were really close to having a much better win-loss record (lost to Arizona, Stanford and UCLA by a combined 7 points) than 5-7.
On to year two of the Justin Wilcox era.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
North Division – #4
PAC 12 – #7
California Golden Bears 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
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The offense was disappointing last season as the Bears ranked #10 in the PAC 12 in rushing (126 YPG) and #11 in the conference in pass effciency. That’s not going to cut it.
Things look a lot brighter this year as QB Ross Bowers (18-12 TD to INT LY, 3,039 passing yards) has a full season of experience under his belt, and they add South Carolina transfer Brandon McIlwain to the mix. The passing attack should be a lot more dangerous with their top two WRs from last season’s squad back for duty. Vic Wharton and Kanawai Noa combined for over 1,600 yards receiving and 9 TDs in 2017. The Bears add Michigan transfer Maurice Ways to the group, and don’t sleep on RB Patrick Laird who grabbed 45 (!) passes out of the backfeld last season. Speaking of Mr Laird, he rushed for 1,127 yards and 8 TDs at 5.9 yards a pop in 2017 and will be running behind a large and experienced offensive line (5/5 returning starters). There is no proven depth at RB to speak of but we do like Laird’s chances of having another 1,000-yard campaign.
We expect to see a much improved offense in 2018 (27.8 PPG LY).
DEFENSE
Yes, guy.
The Golden Bears posted tremendous improvement on defense last season cutting their PPG allowed from a horrid 42.6 (!) in 2016 to 28.4. The Justin Wilcox as HC / Tim DeRuyter as DC combination worked some magic and they have 8 returning starters in 2018. Senior LB and last year’s leading tackler Jordan Kunaszyk is back in the fold and the secondary returns all four starters to a group that had a fne 18-14 TD to INT ratio in 2017. The bad news? There is only one returning starter on the DL and they lose a lot of the PENETRATION production in the front-7 in terms of sacks and TFL.
We anticipate similar defensive results to last season with much more upside than downside risk.
SPECIAL TEAMS
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Danger! Danger!
The Golden Bears must move on without the school’s all-time leading scorer in PK Matt Anderson and hope that Louisiana transfer Steven Coutts can do some good work at P. The return units were average last season and it’s hard to predict what to expect in 2018.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – It sets up pretty well in our estimation. The non-conference schedule looks manageable with both North Carolina and BYU in the reloading phase. Idaho St should be a layup. In conference action they get both Oregon and Washington in Berkeley.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Washington St (November 3). The Golden Bears will be coming off a big game with the Huskies and they have dates with USC and Stanford (The Big Game) on deck.
Season Win Total
Over 5.5 -120
Under 5.5 +100
MEGALOCKS says:
Strong lean to the over. We think Cal is destined for a bowl game this year.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Cal’s last Rose Bowl victory came back on January 1, 1938 when they beat……….ROLL TIDE. Amaze your PAROLE OFFICER with that gem.
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MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 7.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the GOLDEN BEARS a 7.5 ATS Value Rating (Very Good) this season.
There is no reason to expect anything other than a bowl appearance. The team has 18 returning starters and should show improvement on both sides of the ball. A hot start will see them heading into a home date with Oregon looking to SHOCK the WORLD.
HC Justin Wilcox led the team to an 8-4 mark vs Vegas last year including an impressive 4-0 record as home dogs. Teams will not be looking past them this year but it’s reasonable to think they can still be a money-maker in 2018.
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OREGON
2017 Recap Record – 7-6 ATS – 6-7
Oregon moved like a TREMENDOUS MACHINE last season when QB Justin Herbert was healthy. Not so much when he was sidelined. The Ducks only fnished with seven wins but showed some of the explosiveness they had previously become famous for displaying on a weekly basis.
HC Mario Cristobal starts his frst full season in Eugene. Can we expect a PAC 12 North title?
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
North Division – #3
PAC 12 – #5
Oregon Ducks 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
QB Justin Herbert is the straw that stirs the drink. The Ducks were really potent when he was healthy, as Herbert tallied almost 2,000 yards passing (15-5 TD to
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INT, 67.5% completions) whilst adding 5 TDs on the ground. You have to believe that the Ducks will be scary on offense this year, but they will have to deal with the loss of the school’s all-time leading rusher Royce Freeman (1,475, 16 TD LY, NFL – Broncos), as well as Kani Benoit (10 TD, 6.6 YPC LY). There is raw talent remaining in the group but it remains to be seen if there is a true #1 back. Four of the top fve leading receivers are back from last year’s team including #1 WR Dillon Mitchell and TE Jabob Breeland (17.8 YPC, 5 TD LY). The offensive line has impressive size and returns three starters but will miss the presence of LT Tyrell Crosby (NFL – Lions).
Oregon has averaged 36.0 and 35.4 PPG the past two years after banking 40+ per game for a long time. QB Herbert is a game-changer but we need to see how dangerous the complementary weapons (and OL) perform before calling for season-long domination.
DEFENSE
Good defense follows DC Jim Leavitt wherever he goes. What a coincidence.
The Ducks made impressive strides in 2017 going from 41.4 PPG allowed (ya, that happened) to 29.0. Oregon has seven returning starters including a pair of legit stars in DL Jalen Jelks (15 TFL, 7 PBU, 4 QBH LY) (!) and last year’s leading tackler and 2nd Team PAC 12 honoree Troy Dye (107 tackles, 13.5 TFL). They have experience at every level of the defense but will miss CB Arrion Springs who had a whopping 18 PBU in 2017.
We forecast the Ducks to have their best defensive performance since 2014 when they yielded 23.6 PPG.
SPECIAL TEAMS
The kicking game is a bit of a mystery as P Adam Stack had just a 34.4 net last season, and it appears he may take over the FG duties as well. KR Tony-Brooks James had a TD last season but he may have limited duty on the return unit given his increased role at RB.
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Schedule Analysis
Overall – We really like it. The non-conference slate is LAYUP CITY with Bowling Green, Portland St and San Jose St all coming to Eugene. They get Stanford and Washington at home.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – None noted.
Season Win Total
Over 8.5 -120
Under 8.5 +100
MEGALOCKS says:
Strong lean to the over. It may be a popular idea, but it seems as though the stars are aligned for the Ducks.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Remember the ALAMO BOWL. MEGALOCKS DIME NICKEL QUARTER CLUB is still smarting after the Ducks blew a 31-0 halftime lead vs TCU in 2015.
Oregon has approximately 195,000 different uniform combinations.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 6.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the DUCKS a 6.5 ATS Value Rating (Above Average) this season.
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There is a saying that goes something like this……Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.
Last season we had high hopes for Oregon’s prospects vs the point spread only to see them crashing to earth once QB Justin Herbert got injured. What about this year?
The QB will get a lot of the attention, and rightly so, but it is the DEFENSE that has us excited. Keep in mind that when Oregon was a TOUR DE FORCE they had a complete team with a good defense. HC Mario Cristobal is unproven at the big boy level of FBS and there are some holes here and there, but Oregon should be good enough to be an overall money-maker in 2018.
QUACK ATTACK.
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OREGON ST
2017 Recap Record – 1-11 ATS – 3-8-1
Yikes.
The Beavers managed just a single win last season and it came vs FCS foe Portland St in week two (35-32). They got destroyed in four consecutive weeks after that “big” win and HC Gary Anderson called it quits. CB coach Cory Hall took over as the interim HC and got the team playing inspired football. They came within a hair of SHOCKING the WORLD in back-to-back weeks (Colorado, Stanford), and then slid into the abyss for the remainder of the season. Oregon pasted them 69-10 in the season fnale and rumor has it they just scored again.
New HC Jonathan Smith has a tough job ahead of him. What can we expect in 2018?
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
North Division – #6
PAC 12 – #12
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Oregon St Beavers 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
The QB battle will be sorted out during fall camp and the hope is that they can cobble together better production than they got last season (#9 PAC 12 passing offense, last in passing effciency). Jake Luton suffered a season ending injury fairly early in the 2017 campaign and is the slight favorite to regain the starting gig. Other options include JC transfer Jack Colletto and junior Conor Blount who had a pair of TD passes in the spring game.
MEGALOCKS Nation is going to miss the hard running / breakaway speed combo of Ryan Nall (UFA – Bears) and it is a mystery as far as what kind of talent they have in the running back group. Their top two pass catchers from last year’s team are both back (TE Noah Togiai, WR Timmy Hernandez) but neither of them had over 500 yards receiving in 2017. The best news is that the offensive line returns 4/5 starters and they did a decent job in pass protection last season and paved the way for 138 rushing YPG and 4.0 yards per carry.
The Beavers tallied 20.7 PPG last season (dead last PAC 12) and we think its unreasonable to expect much more out of the group.
DEFENSE
It was quite the DEBACLE last year as the Beavers yielded 43.0 PPG which was the worst performance in team history and it ranked them #128 (!) in the FBS (Kansas, East Carolina). In fact, the defense has been gross for the last three seasons as they have been ripped apart by the run and the pass (not optimal), while achieving no PENETRATION to speak of at all (14,18,17 sacks L3Y). Oregon St returns 8 starters to the stop unit but the front seven appears to be the weakest in the PAC 12 on paper. The secondary returns 4/4 starters and should be good enough to stop teams from passing at will, BUT they will need to get some kind of heat on the QB or it will be another LONNNNNG season for the defense. Color us skeptical for now.
SPECIAL TEAMS
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PK Jordan Choukair was only 12/19 on FG attempts but he was 9/10 from inside 40 yards. The Beavers were awful in net punting and in the return game last season. It’s hard to imagine much improvement this year.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – It’s pretty nasty, yo. Starting with Ohio St has to be a joke. Amirite? Their fnal non-conference game is a road trip vs an explosive Nevada squad. They play Stanford and Washington on the road and draw USC from the South.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Nevada (Sept 15). Oregon St hasn’t won a road game since 2014. Nevada is going to score a lot in this one. PAC 12 play is on deck for the Beavers.
Season Win Total
Over 2.5 -120
Under 2.5 -110
MEGALOCKS says:
Neutral stance for the moment. You REALLY have to think a team is beyond the realm of pathetic to take the under on a 2.5 win line. We count 4 or 5 legitimately winnable games. How many will they actually get? Hard to say. If you really needed to throw some spare change around it would probably be a higher percentage play to take the over as crazy as that sounds.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
The Beavers’ only Rose Bowl victory came in 1941 when they slithered by Duke 20-16.
Oregon St is one of only two schools (Hawaii) that can claim a PAIR of Pineapple Bowl victories (1940, 1949).
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MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 3.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the BEAVERS a 3.5 ATS Value Rating (Below Average) this season.
There’s no easy way to say it. This is going to be a struggle. A gradual rebuild has to take place and there is no better time than the present. The good news is that there may be a SURPRISE PACKAGE hiding in the QB unit and the offensive line should be decent. The defense will be marginally better. Saying all of that, we suppose it’s not impossible to see anywhere from one to four wins.
Oregon St has had three absolutely rotten seasons vs the point spread over the last four years. The Oregon St FADE TRAIN made a lot of money last year and the Beavers should be catching tons of points most of the time in 2018.
A team that is consistently a huge underdog will eventually start covering some of those games, if even by accident. The message? Don’t go full blown FADE MODE with this team.
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STANFORD
2017 Recap Record – 9-5 ATS – 7-7
Oh, those pesky USC Trojans.
The Cardinal had another fne season bagging nine wins and making it to the PAC 12 Championship Game. They tried to avenge an earlier loss to the Trojans but fell for a second time to USC (31-28). They fnished the year by losing an Alamo Bowl thriller to TCU after jumping out to a big early lead.
Let’s see if they have what is takes to make another run at the PAC 12 title.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
North Division – #2
PAC 12 – #2
2018 Stanford Cardinal Outlook
OFFENSE
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The Cardinal failed to reach the 400 YPG mark last year for the third time in the past four seasons (389 – #10 PAC 12) despite having an all-UNIVERSE performance out of RB Bryce Love. Love rushed for over 2,100 yards and 19 TDs at an impossible 8.1 (!) yards per carry. Oh, and he battled injuries for a good chunk of the season. The star RB is back for his senior campaign and should enjoy running behind one of the premier offensive lines in college football (excellent size, four returning starters). Sophomore QB KJ Costello was good in his frst taste of action last season (59%, 14-4 TD to INT) and should be a perfect ft for the offense. Costello has an experienced group of targets to look to including last season’s #1 WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside (48-781 16.3, 9 TD) and emerging star TE Kaden Smith (414, 18.0, 5 TD LY).
We are excited about the prospects for this offense and fully expect them to exceed last year’s production in terms of YPG and PPG (389, 32.4).
DEFENSE
We are not as optimistic about the stop unit. Stanford allowed 169 YPG on the ground last season (#7 PAC 12) and yielded 63% completions (#9 PAC 12). This year they return 6 starters and have some big shoes to replace, particularly on the defensive line where they will certainly miss Harrison Phillips (16 TFL, 6 QBH, #3DC – Bills). In fact, there are only three returning starters in the front-7 although the LB group does look pretty good on paper. The secondary can’t get better losing a pair of AA (?) but they do have experience in the unit, and they will be buoyed by a healthy CB Alijah Holder who missed a good chunk of last season.
The defense has not been up to typical Cardinal standards the past few years and we are a bit skeptical (#6, #4, #3 PAC 12 last three seasons; #1, #2, #1 the three years prior).
SPECIAL TEAMS
Yes, guy.
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The Cardinal should excel in this department with full continuity (just a new LS). PK Jet Toner connected on 21/26 FG attempts last season and P Jake Bailey was a 2nd Team PAC 12 selection (41.0 net). KR Cameron Scarlett averaged 26 yards per return in 2017.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – It’s another typical Stanford slate. Tough. They draw San Diego St in week one (lost to them in 2017) and have back-to-back road games with Oregon and Notre Dame before the calendar fips to October. In early November they have to make a trip to Washington. There is a bit of a breather at the end of the season (fnal three games – Oregon St, at Cal, at UCLA).
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Notre Dame (September 29). This meeting comes after a road trip to Oregon (yuuuuuuge game in PAC 12 North) and before a conference tilt with Utah.
Season Win Total
Over 8 -135
Under 8 +115
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean to the over. Despite the nasty schedule it’s not likely that they lose fve games with that offense and HC. The -135 is not ideal. Need to think more about this one.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Stanford was known as the “Indians” from 1930 to January 1972, and the “Cardinals” from 1972 through 1981. Amaze your BRAZENLY TATTOOED CO-WORKER with that gem.
The Cardinal compete with Notre Dame for the Legends Trophy.
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MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 5.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the CARDINAL a 5.5 ATS Value Rating (Slightly Above Average) this season.
The Cardinal enter the season as legit threats in the PAC 12 yet AGAIN and it can’t hurt to have one of the Heisman favorites in your backfeld. The offense looks really good but the defense has us a bit concerned. We have been wrong about the quality of the stop unit before, but time will tell. The schedule is pretty nasty and their two most important division tilts are both on the road. Stanford has been a much better home team under HC David Shaw.
Speaking of David Shaw, is it possible he is the most underrated HC in college football?
It’s probably wise to keep them in mind most weeks when building your weekly betting cards.
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WASHINGTON
2017 Recap Record – 10-3 ATS – 7-6
It’s not often that you win ten games and end up disappointed. The Huskies started out on SUPAH HOT FIRE crushing and killing their way to a 6-0 record but laid an egg on a trip to Tempe (stop us if you have heard that before). They blew the doors off Washington St in the Apple Cup only to lose a close one to Penn St in the Fiesta Bowl.
Do they have what it takes to snag a playoff berth in 2018?
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
North Division – #1
PAC 12 – #1
Washington Huskies 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
There is a really nice foundation to work with this season. QB Jake Browning is back for his senior campaign and has the skill set and maturity to take the
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Huskies a long way. The offensive line should be fantastic and they boast outstanding RB Myles Gaskin (1,380, 21 TDs rushing LY) to carry the mail. RB Salvon Ahmed averaged 6.4 yards per carry last season and will be a more than adequate back-up. It seems impossible that the Huskies will be unable to achieve 200+ YPG on the ground (183 LY). The big question is in the receiving corps where they need to deal with the departure of WR Dante Pettis (63-761, 7 TD LY) and TE Will Dissly (#4 DC Seahawks). The good news is that they welcome back WR Chico McClatcher to the ranks after missing almost all of last season due to injury.
The Huskies averaged 36.2 PPG last season and we expect them to fnish in the same ballpark in 2018.
DEFENSE
Washington has improved their PPG allowed in three consecutive campaigns from 24.8 in 2014 to an outstanding 16.1 in 2017 (#8 scoring defense FBS). This year they return 9 starters to the stop unit and boast star power at every level of the defense. 2nd Team PAC 12 honoree NT Greg Gaines is a fne space eater in the middle of the line and leading tackler Ben Burr-Kirven is there to clean up the mess (2nd Team PAC 12). The secondary is one of the best in college football with four returning starters that allowed just 10 (!) TD passes in 2017 (15 INT). Their pair of safeties is a nightmare for opposing squads (JoJo McIntosh – 2nd Team PAC 12, Taylor Rapp – 1st Team PAC 12).
There is no reason to think that anything other than a top-10 fnish in total defense (LY – #8) is in the cards.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Argh!
The best punt returner in college football history (like, for real, like totally, like) Dante Pettis is off to the NFL (San Francisco) after taking an NCAA record nine (!) punts to the house during his amazing career at Washington. The kickoff return crew should be fne but they are breaking in a new PK.
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Schedule Analysis
Overall – It’s not a cakewalk, that’s for sure. They open up with a yuuuuuge neutral site (Atlanta) game with Auburn and also get a taste of BYU at the end of September.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – BYU (September 29). This event pops up in a big- time PAC 12 sandwich (after Utah, Arizona St; before road trips to UCLA and Oregon). Not an ideal place to be laying major lumber.
Season Win Total
Over 10.5 +120
Under 10.5 -140
MEGALOCKS says:
Boy. This is a tough one. We love the look of the Huskies this season but it seems too much to take them over a high number like 10.5. Pass for now.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
HC Chris Petersen has an all-time record of 129-29. >>>>>>>>>>>> G.O.A.T.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 6.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the HUSKIES a 6.5 ATS Value Rating (Above Average) this season.
It’s go time.
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Washington has an open door to the PAC 12 title in our estimation. This is an optimal opportunity to SPANK DAT AZZ and leave no doubt who the best team in the conference is in 2018. The offense is loaded other than a bit of uncertainty at WR. The defense is lights out. Chris Peterson is one the best head coaches of our generation. But can they function as the hunted? (vs the hunter)
Chris Peterson has fought his way to a 54% mark vs the point spread during his time with the Huskies and has yet to endure a losing season vs Vegas. This is despite being a pretty hot property with Degenerate Nation. The PAC 12 is absent of a bunch of HOT teams in our estimation and it seems like Washington is set up for a big run this year. Keep them on your radar when building your weekly betting cards.
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WASHINGTON ST
2017 Recap Record – 9-4 ATS – 7-6
The Cougars started out on SUPAH HOT FIRE winning their frst six games. That streak included a 3-OT classic vs Boise St and an upset victory over USC. They got taken behind the WOODSHED by Cal (L 37-3) and gave up 58 (!) to Arizona before rebounding with quality wins over Stanford and Utah. They had a shot at making the PAC 12 title game but got blown to bits by the Huskies in the regular season fnale.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
North Division – #5
PAC 12 – #11
Washington St Cougars 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
This season will truly test the ability of the Cougs to lock and load with new quarterbacks. Luke Falk is off to the NFL (Titans) and he fnished his college career as Washington St’s all-time leading passer (30 TD, 3,593 yards LY). The
421 2018 SEASON PREVIEW new man for the job? It is going be a multi-armed battle during fall camp. A few of the contestants are East Carolina transfer Gardner Minshew and junior Trey Tinsley. The WR group is without their top two targets from the 2017 campaign as both Tavares Martin (70, 831, 9 TD) and Isaiah Johnson-Mack (60-555, 5 TD) have transferred from the program. They can usually cobble together a decent WR unit but this season may be a bit more challenging. The good news is that RB James Williams caught 71 (!) passes out of the backfeld last year and provides a nice safety valve.
Washington St rushed for just 68 (!) yards per game last year which was 2nd worst in the FBS (Western Kentucky). They also allowed 44 sacks which is too many, even in a pass-happy offense. The OL returns just a pair of starters this season and we fnd it hard to see them improving much in 2018.
DEFENSE
There aren’t too many people who would guess that the #2 defense in the PAC 12 last season was none other than YOUR Washington St Cougars (323 YPG). There may be trouble on the horizon as they lose star DL Hercules Mata’afa who bagged an amazing 22.5 TFL and 6 QBH in 2017. It can’t be understated how impactful he was to the stop unit. They do return their top-2 tacklers including 1st Team PAC 12 member Jalen Thompson and six starters overall. Another positive is the return of most of the key members of a secondary that was excellent last season allowing just 11 TD passes (!) (#2 PAC 12) and 54% completions (#1 PAC 12). The question becomes, how will the departure of Hercules impact the pass defense? The Cougars will have to fnd a way to keep pressure on opposing QBs.
SPECIAL TEAMS
RUH ROH.
This is going to be a problem area. Washington St will be without their excellent PK Erik Powell (20/24 FG LY), and they were #100 in net punting last season and #116 in both KR and PR. We don’t use the analogy of a GREASE FIRE often but it may be appropriate in this situation.
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Schedule Analysis
Overall – It’s not too bad. The non-conference docket should go smoothly (at Wyoming, San Jose St, E Washington), but then again, Wyoming is tougher than a $3 steak and Eastern Washington beat the Cougars in 2016 as four-TD underdogs. It will help to only have fve road games, and just four after September 1st.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Nothing noted.
Season Win Total
Over 6.5 -110
Under 6.5 -120
MEGALOCKS says:
Strong lean to the under as we approach press time. It’s hard to go against Mike Leach who always seems to get to bowl games, but seven wins feels like a bit of a reach.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
The Cougars’ only Rose Bowl triumph came back in 1915 when they dominated the pesky Brown Bruins 14-0.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 1.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the COUGARS a 1.0 ATS Value Rating (Avoid) this season.
The Cougars bring a relatively inexperienced squad into the competitive PAC 12 North this season. We understand that Mike Leach can probably
423 2018 SEASON PREVIEW coach-up a bunch of scrubs and get 6+ wins and 30 points per game, but there is too much uncertainty for our liking. There are question marks at QB, on the offensive line and on defense where they lose a phenomenal presence on the DL.
Washington St recorded a 13-13 mark vs Vegas the past two seasons despite boasting a very good win-loss record of 17-9. This feels like a year where they take a step backwards and we recommend avoiding them most weeks vs the point spread.
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PAC 12
SOUTH DIVISION
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ARIZONA
2017 Recap Record – 7-6 ATS – 5-7-1
The Wildcats had a decent season by taking down essentially all of their “winnable games”. They just could not get over the hump and fnished with a seven-win season culminating in a tough loss to Purdue in the Foster Farms Bowl (L 38-35). The best news was the emergence of star QB Khalil Tate who is a legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate heading into the season. Oh, and Kevin Sumlin is the new head coach. Things are looking up in Tuscon.
Let’s take a look at the potential for this season’s squad.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
South Division – #3
PAC 12 – #6
Arizona Wildcats 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
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Here we go! How much damage can KHALIL FOOTBALL do at QB if he stays healthy for an entire season? Last year he ran for over 1,400 yards and 12 TDs at an impossible 9.2 (!) yards a pop. Tate also had a fne 14-9 TD to INT ratio and completed 62% of his passes. There is every reason to expect him to have a monster season, even taking into account the fact that defenses will have a better idea of how to control him after watching tape during the off-season. Leading rusher JJ Taylor (847, 5 TD LY) is back but there is no proven depth at RB. We worry a bit about the offensive line that just returns a pair of starters after having such an amazing 2017 campaign (#1 FBS – 6.6 YPC). An incredibly mobile QB can really help out the offensive line so hopefully Tate can mask any shortcomings in the OL, of course without getting himself smoked too many times. When Tate chooses to MATRICULATE in the passing game he will enjoy having his top-two targets from last year’s team available (11 TDs combined) as well as TE Bryce Wolma who hauled in 28 passes in 2017.
Arizona was far and away the most potent offense in the PAC 12 last season (#1 PAC 12 scoring offense – 41.3) and will still easily remain near the top. A new HC, a less experienced OL and lack of depth at QB give us some pause.
DEFENSE
The Wildcats were #10 in the PAC 12 in total defense last season, and in fact, they have allowed 450+ yards per contest in each of the past four seasons. Arizona will have no excuses this year as they return nine of their top eleven tacklers from the 2017 stop unit and have nine returning starters overall. Every level of the defense should improve under the watch of DC Marcel Yates. There is size on the DL, LB Colin Schooler was the Cats’ #2 tackler and was named PAC 12 Frosh DPOY and the secondary returns all four starters (19 INT LY – #1 PAC 12). If they can maintain the same kind of pressure on opposing QBs (30 sacks LY) this defense will take a big move forward.
SPECIAL TEAMS
It’s a bit of a mixed bag. Arizona’s punting was a DUMPSTER FIRE last season as they ranked dead last in the FBS in net punting (29.4 net ??). FG kicking
427 2018 SEASON PREVIEW should not be a major issue and PR Shun Brown took a pair to the HOUSE last season.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – It shapes up pretty nicely. Their out-of-conference docket is not too harsh (BYU, at Houston, Southern Utah) and they only have four conference road games. They also avoid Washington AND Stanford from the PAC 12 North.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – California (Oct 6). This match-up falls between a pair of yuuuuuge south division showdowns (USC, Utah).
Season Win Total
Over 7.5 -145
Under 7.5 +115
MEGALOCKS says:
Neutral stance at the moment. We think the Cats have a lot of potential this season but the 7.5 win total at a high price (-145) is something we need to let simmer in our brains for a while before deciding on the course of action.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Kevin Sumlin has a record of 86-43 as a head coach. Yup, that’s pretty good.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 5.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the WILDCATS a 5.5 ATS Value Rating (Slightly Above Average) this season.
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There is a lot of excitement building and why not? They have an emerging superstar at QB, an improved defense and a fne head coach. From a betting perspective, our DEEP PAC 12 INSIDERS believe that this will be a HOT team with DEGENERATE NATION and that will likely make it diffcult to fnd value vs the point spread on a weekly basis. Kevin Sumlin is 48-53-1 (47.5%) ATS since 2010. Pick your spots vs Vegas, but most importantly, enjoy watching their games!
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ARIZONA ST
2017 Recap Record – 7-6 ATS – 7-5-1
It was time for a change.
The Sun Devils have averaged just six wins per season over the past three years (0-2 in bowl games) and there is no better time than the present to give our pal HERM EDWARDS a shot at the head coaching gig. In all seriousness, we have always been a fan of his, understanding that he did not exactly light it up in the NFL (54-74 win-loss record).
Arizona St scratched and clawed their way into bowl season last year by virtue of a late season win over Oregon St but proceeded to get blown away by a really good NC State team in the Sun Bowl (L 52-31).
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
South Division – Tied #5
PAC 12 – Tied #9
Arizona St Sun Devils 2018 Outlook
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OFFENSE
The foundation is here for the Sun Devils to be effective on offense. Senior QB Manny Wilkins is underrated in our estimation as he had a fne 20-8 TD to INT ratio whilst rushing for 7 TDs in 2017. When Wilkins chooses to MATRICULATE in the passing game he has one of the best WR in college football at his disposal. Junior wideout N’Keal Harry was a 1st Team PAC 12 honoree last year and grabbed 82 receptions for over 1,100 yards and 8 TDs. The depth is promising and that has allowed last season’s #3 WR Jalen Harvey to move to DB.
The overall effectiveness of the offense will come down to the ability to run the football without their excellent 1-2 punch of Demario Richard and Kalen Ballage who combined for almost 1,700 yards and 18 (!) TDs on the ground last season. We have quite a bit of concern about the depth at RB as well as the quality of an offensive line that returns just three starters AND allowed 41 sacks last season (#11 PAC 12). In fact, the Sun Devils have allowed 38+ sacks in six consecutive seasons! Amaze the cast of characters at the next BORING FAMILY WEDDING with that gem.
DEFENSE
We can’t sugar-coat it. Our PAC 12 INSIDERS have grave concerns about an Arizona St defense that has been pretty much awful for the past three seasons and they return just four starters in 2018. The Sun Devils will be without their top- four (!!) tacklers from the 2017 stop unit and nobody on the depth chart had more than four sacks last season. New DC Danny Gonzales comes over from San Diego St and will implement the sneaky 3-3-5 defensive alignment that the Aztecs use to drive opposing offenses nuts. This feels like a season of growing pains and we would be surprised if the Sun Devils fnished higher than 9th in the PAC 12 in total defense.
SPECIAL TEAMS
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It seems like an average unit overall. PK Brandon Ruiz was 19/27 on FG attempts last year as a freshman (12/12 inside 40 yards) but they can use some improvement in the return game.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – Yikes. They draw Michigan St and San Diego St on the non-conference docket and have road games at Washington, USC and Oregon.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – UCLA (November 10). This game follows a three contest MEAT GRINDER (Stanford, at USC, Utah) and they just might be laying a couple of points in this one. We won’t be crazy about backing the Sun Devils here if the season is already down the drain. At this point, the Territorial Cup (Arizona) might be all that matters.
Season Win Total
Over 4.5 -125
Under 4.5 -105
MEGALOCKS says:
Neutral stance for now with slight LEANAGE to the under. The schedule is pretty nasty but even one upset along the way could mean big time celebrations for OVER backers.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Arizona St is a DOCUMENTED 0-2 in the SALAD BOWL losing to Xavier (huh?) and Miami Ohio back in the 1950s.
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MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 3.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the SUN DEVILS a 3.0 ATS Value Rating (Below Average) this season.
We are very interested to see how the frst season of the Herm Edwards era turns out. The offense is going to be respectable but the defense could be a HOT MESS. It truly is a crapshoot in terms of how Herm Edwards transitions to the college game BUT we will be cheering for him and the program. Use caution vs the point spread.
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COLORADO
2017 Recap Record – 5-7 ATS – 3-9
The Buffs started out on SUPAH HOT FIRE (3-0) but could not get the job done in PAC 12 play. They fnished up with their fourth losing season in fve years under the watch of Mike MacIntyre, and while we don’t like to make presumptions about a “hot seat”, there is no doubt that the fans are getting restless in Boulder. Colorado has only made one (!) bowl game since 2007.
Do they have the MINERALS to go bowling in 2018? Let’s dig in, yo.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
South Division – #4
PAC 12 – #8
Colorado Buffaloes 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
Let’s start on an upbeat note. Junior QB Steven Montez has proven himself to be a legitimate PAC 12 starting QB and he had a fne season in 2017 (2,975, 60.5%,
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18-9 TD to INT). There are defnite headwinds this year as he will be without his top-3 (!) receivers from last season’s squad, and will be operating behind an offensive line that allowed 39 sacks last season and only returns a pair of starters to the group. It gets better (sarcasm alert). Colorado’s 2nd all-time leading rusher Phillip Lindsay (1,474, 14 TD LY) is no longer with the team, although they do get the addition of Hokies’ transfer RB Travon McMillan.
Colorado managed a paltry 26.4 PPG last season (#11 PAC 12) and our SMOKING HOT PAC 12 INTERNS fnd it hard to project much improvement this year.
DEFENSE
The Buffs have allowed less than 30 PPG in each of the past three seasons. Colorado returns six starters to the stop unit but we worry that they really miss DC Jim Leavitt (now with Oregon). Last season they allowed 208 yards rushing per game (#10 PAC 12) and managed just 19 sacks (#11 PAC 12). This year they have decent size at DL and their top-two tacklers from last season returning at LB (Drew Lewis, Rick Gamboa; 90+ tackles each LY). The secondary took a hit with the departure of 1st Team PAC 12 CB Isaiah Oliver who was taken in the 2nd round of the NFL draft (Falcons).
It’s hard to visualize signifcant improvement on defense (28.2 PPG allowed LY) given the the personnel returning, but there is some upside should they fnd a way to be stronger vs the run.
SPECIAL TEAMS
The Buffs boast a strong kicking game with P Alex Kinney (40.0 net LY) and PK James Stefanou (17/22 on FG attempts LY). The return units were average in 2017.
Schedule Analysis
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Overall – It’s fairly kind. Their non-conference games are all winnable (Colorado St, at Nebraska, New Hampshire), as are the frst two PAC 12 tilts (UCLA, Arizona St).
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Nothing specifc noted.
Season Win Total
Over 4.5 -145
Under 4.5 +115
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean to the over. Even at a bit of a steep price it seems like the way to go. We are not crazy about their overall prospects this season but they should be competitive in a good chunk of their games.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
The bison is North America’s largest land mammal.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 3.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the BUFFALOES a 3.5 ATS Value Rating (Below Average) this season.
It’s hard to know what to expect this season. They are not an overwhelming squad on PAPER, but that’s why they play the games on the feld (HOT TAKE ALERT). It’s hard to get too excited about either side of the ball but the schedule is defnitely one that they can navigate successfully.
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Last year was HC MacIntyre’s frst losing season vs the point spread in fve seasons in Boulder. His teams have proven that they can meet or exceed market expectations more often than not. We still recommend using caution until we see how they stack up vs manageable PAC 12 competition.
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UCLA
2017 Recap Record – 6-7 ATS – 4-9
And that was the end of that.
UCLA had another disappointing campaign and that meant the end of the road for HC Jim Mora who compiled a record of 46-30 as head coach. They did some good work until the recent tailspin but could not get over the hump in the PAC 12. The fact that they tallied six wins last season with a horrible defense and no running game is a tribute to departed QB Josh Rosen.
Ace head coach Chip Kelly is the new sheriff in town. How quickly can he turn it around?
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
South Division – Tied #5
PAC 12 – Tied #9
UCLA Bruins 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
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The Rosen One is gone. No more Chosen Rosen. We have a feeling that he will be a good starting QB for the Arizona Cardinals, but the question at hand is who takes over the starting role? And will he be a good ft for Chip Kelly’s offense? It would be fun to watch highly-regarded true freshman Dorian Thompson- Robinson take a crack at things but we won’t know if that is truly possible until fall camp gets in full gear. Michigan transfer Wilton Speight will battle for the role as will last year’s backup Devon Modster. We know Chip Kelly will make it work eventually, it just remains to be seen how quickly it will happen. The new QB will have to work with a relatively inexperienced group of receivers as the top-two depart including NFL DC Jordan Lasley (69-1,264, 18.3, 9 TD LY).
You know that the ground game will be a lot better than last year (113 YPG, #11 PAC 12) and Chip Kelly gets to work with the top three producers at the running back position from last season’s squad. The top-two combined for over 1,000 yards and 11 TDs so all is not lost. The offensive line is a yuuuuuge concern with only a pair of returning starters and a LOT of work to be done.
UCLA posted 32.5 PPG and 458 YPG in 2017. Even with Chip Kelly running the show it seems unlikely they will be able to match that level of success. Then again……?
DEFENSE
New DC Jerry Azzinaro is going to have his hands full trying to make meaningful strides with a defense that allowed a program record 484 (!) YPG in 2017. The Bruins must move on without last season’s leading tackler Kenny Young (NFL – Ravens) and leading sack man Jacob Tuioti-Mariner (7.5). but do have the beneft of seven returning starters. It will be interesting to see how much better the run defense will be as they were ripped to absolute shreds last year (287 YPG) (!) (#129 FBS). They also need to improve their level of PENETRATION as they only bagged 22 sacks (fewest since 2011).
Only Oregon St (43.0) allowed more points per contest than UCLA did in 2017 (36.6). We think they will improve but would be shocked to see them make any meaningful jump in the PAC 12 total defense rankings.
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SPECIAL TEAMS
There is nice continuity in the unit and PK JJ Molson was a reliable 17/21 on FG attempts last year (4-6 from 40+).
Schedule Analysis
Overall – Whoa, Nellie. It looks brutal. They have a road game with the Sooners in week two and get the scrappy Fresno St Bulldogs in non-conference action. They must face all the big boys from the PAC 12 North and deal with an improved South division.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Arizona St (November 10). This bad boy is sandwiched between the CHIP KELLY HOMECOMING game in Eugene and a home date with arch-rival USC.
Season Win Total
Over 5.5 +110
Under 5.5 -130
MEGALOCKS says:
Strong lean to the under. It’s hard to imagine the Bruins snagging six wins with that schedule.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
The Bruins have a winning record against every current member of the PAC 12 other than USC (31-48-7).
UCLA uniforms display POWDERKEG BLUE. Keep that in mind for witty headlines and social media interactions once Chip Kelly gets this offense going off like a ……….powderkeg.
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MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 2.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the BRUINS a 2.5 ATS Value Rating (Poor) this season.
There are a lot of moving parts and it’s really hard to assess what to make of the prospects for 2018. New QB, new HC and a defense that has a lot of improvement to make. Hmm. It seems that a wait-and-see approach is best. We have no doubt that this program will get competitive in a hurry with Chip Kelly leading the way (46-7 career record) (!) and a fertile recruiting ground that should deliver plenty of talent.
Use extreme caution vs the point spread early in the season but watch for signs that they might be better than anticipated.
Go get ’em Chip!
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USC
2017 Recap Record – 11-3 ATS – 4-10
The Trojans had not had a double-digit win season since 2013 but have now socked away back-to-back impressive campaigns (10 wins in 2016, 11 wins LY). Last year they beat Stanford twice en route to a PAC 12 title and only had one bad game in fourteen tries (80,000 STAR MEGALOCKS PREMIUM PLATINUM EARLY AFTERNOON PHONE RELEASE WINNER; 49-14 Irish).
Let’s see how things look for 2018.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
South Division – #1
PAC 12 – #3
USC Trojans 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
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Job #1. Find a replacement for their excellent QB and #1 NFL draft pick Sam Darnold who is off to the J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS this fall. The battle for the starting gig will be decided during fall camp and could go a few different ways. Those with a legitimate shot include sophomore Matt Fink (9 attempts LY), redshirt freshman Jack Sears and an exciting freshman newcomer (JT Daniels). There is no doubt it will be supremely diffcult to get the kind of production that Darnold provided in 2017. The receiving group will be without last season’s leading WR in Deontay Burnett (1,114, 9 TD) but still has a lot of raw talent on board including #2 WR Tyler Vaughns (57, 809, 14,2, 5 TD LY).
Another question mark is the need to replace star RB Ronald Jones who rattled off back-to-back 1,000 yard rushing seasons for the Trojans (NFL – Bucs). Stephen Carr looks like a the kind of promising talent that can step in right away and do a great job but he missed spring practices (recovering from back injury). Four starters return to the offensive line including 2nd Team PAC 12 member C Toa Lobendahn, and this is a group that paved the way for 185 yards rushing per contest last year. They did allow 30 sacks but eight of those (!) came in the fnal game vs Ohio St. We give them a mulligan for that.
USC averaged 32.6 PPG last season (#4 PAC 12) and we expect similar production in 2018.
DEFENSE
The Trojans were pretty average across the board last season (#5 PAC 12 in total defense) with the exception of a few categories including red zone defense (#4 FBS) and sacks (46 – T1 FBS with Clemson) (!). This year USC returns six starters to the stop unit including #1 tackler and 3rd Team AA LB Cameron Smith, 2nd Team PAC 12 DL Christian Rector (7.5 sacks LY) and excellent S Marvell Tell III. The defense should really come together nicely as they have a lot of talent to mesh with the three aforementioned stars. We believe that the Trojans will have their best defensive performance since the 2013 season in which they allowed just 21.2 PPG and 335 YPG (#1 PAC 12 total defense that year).
SPECIAL TEAMS
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The unit was pretty average last season but they should improve given that everyone is back for duty. PK Chase McGrath was 12/17 on FG attempts LY and PR Michael Pittman took one to the house.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – It’s challenging, but things defnitely cool down after early season visits to Stanford (week 2) and Texas (week 3). They fnish up with a visit from the Irish in late November.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Washington St (September 21). This game follows the BIGGIE SIZE match-ups with Stanford and Texas and the Trojans will be sure to be laying a bundle of points (2-5 as home favorites LY).
Season Win Total
Over 8.5 -125
Under 8.5 -105
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean to the over. This feels like a 9+ win team despite the loss of Darnold at QB.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Pete Carroll had a record of 97-19 (.836) as HC at USC and led the Trojans to a 25-1 (!) mark in November.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 5.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the TROJANS a 5.0 ATS Value Rating (Average) this season.
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This is going to be really fun to watch. The defense looks ready to rock and roll and the schedule is manageable after a couple of early season tests. If they can fnd some effciency at QB and have some stars emerge at RB and WR, there is no reason to think that USC cannot be a major HANDFUL in the PAC 12. That is asking quite a bit, however, given the uncertainty that exists under center.
HC Clay Helton may deserve a bit more credit. The Trojans compiled a record of 21-6 over the past two seasons and seem to be on their way to becoming a national power yet again. This season will be a test. We are going to take a neutral stance on these guys for now in terms of the point spread. They are a public team and it’s often hard to fnd value.
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UTAH
2017 Recap Record – 7-6 ATS – 10-3
You have to call it a disappointment, but we suppose that’s a compliment regarding the overall expectations of the program. The Utes had their worst win- loss record since 2013 (5-7) and they failed to win any games that really jumped off the page. Their resume? Wins over North Dakota, BYU, San Jose St, Arizona, UCLA, Colorado and West Virginia (without their star QB). The good news? They lost to Stanford, USC and Washington by a combined 7 (!) points.
Can the Utes make noise in the PAC 12 South this year?
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
South Division – #2
PAC 12 – #4
Utah Utes 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
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Utah is in really good shape at the QB position with a healthy Tyler Huntley leading the way. Huntley battled through injuries last season and still managed to toss 15 TD passes whilst rushing for another six. The running game will be productive with Zack Moss coming off a year in which he rushed for over 1,100 yards and 10 TDs while grabbing 29 receptions. The offensive line should be much more productive with four returning starters to the mix. In 2017 they rushed for 164 yards per contest (#7 PAC 12) and allowed 39 (!) sacks (#9 PAC 12). As long as we get a more Utah-like performance out of the OL, everything should work out fne. The only concern we have is a WR group that will be without their top-two from last season including 2nd Team PAC 12 honoree Darren Carrington (70-980, 14.0, 6 TD LY).
Utah averaged 29.5 PPG last year (#9 PAC 12) and we expect some improvement this season provided that they can get a full (or close to it, yo) season from Tyler Huntley.
DEFENSE
The defense certainly did their part last season, as per usual, allowing just 23.2 PPG (#3 PAC 12). However, the SACK LAKE CITY defense did not get their usual level of PENETRATION bagging just 25 sacks on the year, and that was the frst time since the 2012 season that they tallied less than 30 sacks. This year they return six starters to the stop unit but will be without their top two tacklers from the 2017 squad. The good news is that they have fne size on the DL, a good-looking LB group, and a rock-solid secondary (3/4 returning starters). You can almost always count on the Utes to have solid pass defense and this year should be no exception. Things will be REALLY good if they can get their usual level of pressure on opposing QBs.
Overall we are optimistic about the defense but don’t think it will be a brick wall.
SPECIAL TEAMS
BOOM GOES THE DYNAMITE.
447 2018 SEASON PREVIEW
Utah is the only team that can claim to have a Lou Groza Award winner (PK Matt Gay – 2017) and a Ray Guy Award recipient (P Mitch Wishnowsky – 2016) on their roster. Impress your PSYCHO EX-GIRLFRIEND with that trivia bomb.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – Optimists will tell you that they have a pretty manageable non- conference docket (Weber St, Northern Illinois, BYU). Skeptics will tell you that they have fve (!) road conference games and must face Stanford, Oregon and Washington from the PAC 12 North. We give the schedule an 8.0 for diffculty level which we are told is similar to a DOUBLE SOW COW in fgure skating.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Arizona (October 12). This is a classic Stanford / USC sandwich situation complete with all the trimmings.
Season Win Total
Over – 7 -120
Under – 7 +100
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean to the over as we approach press time. Any team coached by Kyle Whittingham is going to be tougher than a night in jail AND we like the QB/defense/special teams.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Kyle Whittingham is 11-1 in bowl games. BOWL GAME G.O.A.T.
Utah has not captured a division title since moving to the PAC 12.
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MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 6.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the UTES a 6.0 ATS Value Rating (Above Average) this season.
There is no reason for Utah to expect anything less than a trip to the PAC 12 Championship Game. Sure, it won’t be easy, but they are a well-coached team that will be strong on offense, defense and special teams. The division is in a down phase but it will not be that way for long. Find a way to wiggle, scratch and claw your way past the Trojans on October 20th and you are off to the races.
HC Kyle Whittingham is a fantastic 70-56-1 (55.6%) vs the point spread over the past 10 years. REGRESSION TO THE MEAN GUY and FADE GUY may tell you that Utah is 17-9 ATS in their last 26 games and due for a pullback in terms of performance vs the point spread, but we think they will get the money more often than not.
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SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE (SEC)
EAST DIVISION
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FLORIDA
2017 Recap Record – 4-7 ATS – 3-8
Well, that was ugly.
Florida coughed their way to a 4-7 record and said goodbye to HC Jim McElwain during the season. They were TORPEDOED by suspension and injuries and the lack of depth was too much to overcome. They only won one of their fnal seven games (UAB) (!) and rock bottom had to be the beating at the hands of Georgia (42-7). New HC Dan Mullen comes over from Mississippi St to try and right the ship. Is it too much to expect big time improvement in 2018? Let’s fnd out.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
East Division – #3
SEC – Tied #6
Florida Gators 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
451 2018 SEASON PREVIEW
Florida got sketchy QB play last season but, to be honest, they never really got settled. New HC Dan Mullen has some talent to work with and will be able to get more production out of the unit. Feleipe Franks was pretty average in his frst season (9-8 TD to INT ratio) but the offense was splattered with injured and suspended players. This year he will be dealing with a full deck that starts with an offensive line returning all fve starters. The RB unit is deep and returns the top-2 (Lamical Perine, Jordan Scarlett) that combined for over 1,000 yards and 10 TDs last season. We think the ground attack will be much improved (#75 FBS LY) in 2018. Leading receiver Tyrie Cleveland is back and the Gators add a pair of talented transfers from Ohio St and Ole Miss to the mix.
Florida has scored less than 24 points per game in THREE (!) straight seasons but we project a big improvement this year.
DEFENSE
Last year the Gators allowed the most points and yards in a LONG LONG time. Suspensions and injuries were an absolute killer, but this season Florida returns 9 (!) starters and should be back to their stingy, nasty selves. Excellent DC Todd Grantham comes over with HC Mullen from Mississippi St and has a lot of tools in the toolbox. The DL has good size. The LB unit is loaded with experience and features 2nd Team SEC honoree David Reese (102 tackles, 10 TFL LY). Fellow LB Cece Jefferson was also disruptive in 2017 bagging 13.5 TFL. The secondary should live up to Gators’ standards with 3/4 returning starters. Even last season with all the personnel issues, they still had a decent 16-14 TD to INT ratio.
Florida went from 16.8 PPG allowed in 2016 to 27.3 (!) last year. And they only registered 23 sacks. We project a much improved performance in terms of PPG allowed, yards allowed, and PENETRATION.
SPECIAL TEAMS
This could be a trouble area. The Gators must replace their excellent PK AND P combination in 2018. They bring in some talented and highly-regarded players to take over, but it’s always an unknown when reloading the kicking game. It could turn into a team strength but it’s hard to say right now.
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Schedule Analysis
Overall – It looks favorable to us. They miss ROLL TIDE and Auburn and only have one (!) true road game after October 13th, and that bad boy comes on November 24th when they take on Florida St. There are also a couple of free squares (Charleston Southern, Idaho).
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Vanderbilt (October 13th). This game is their 3rd road test in four weeks and it comes after games with Tennessee, Mississippi St, and LSU.
Season Win Total
Over 8 +110
Under 8 -130
MEGALOCKS says:
Strong lean to the over. It’s hard to pass up +110 given the risk/reward dynamic at play. It seems truly unlikely that the Gators lose fve games and 9+ is well within their reach.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Florida has beat Kentucky 31 consecutive times. That is the longest active streak in the FBS.
The Gators’ bowl history includes playing in some gems like the Bacardi Bowl, Tangerine Bowl, and Astro-Bluebonnet Bowl.
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MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 7.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the GATORS a 7.5 ATS Value Rating (Very Good) this season.
We expect good things from Florida this year. There is uncertainty at QB and in the special teams unit, but this squad is loaded with raw talent and has a lot of experience. The coaching upgrade is yuuuuuge and you know they have to be hungry after last season’s DEBACLE. Georgia is an absolute monster, but there is no doubt the match-up on October 27th will be must- see-TV.
If they start hot the value may dissipate a bit, but they should still have a winning ATS mark in 2018. CHOMP CHOMP.
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GEORGIA
2017 Recap Record – 13-2 ATS – 11-4
As a college football fan, you just had to love the Bulldogs fnal two games of the season. Their 2-OT win over Oklahoma in the Rose Bowl was one of the most entertaining games you will ever see and the College Football Playoff Championship was riveting starting in the 2nd half. And that bad boy also went to OT. ROLL TIDE pulled it out by a score of 26-23. Can that close call fuel Georgia to another playoff appearance?
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
East Division – #1
SEC – #2
Georgia Bulldogs 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Bulldogs are set at QB with sophomore Jake Fromm back for duty. All he did was take over the job as a true freshman and lead the team within a hair of a National Championship. Highly recruited backup Justin Fields will be a star
455 2018 SEASON PREVIEW someday and is the backup plan for now. Throwing the ball all over the yard is sexy, but Georgia did a lot with their passing attack (#11 FBS passing effciency, #105 passing yards) when they chose to do so. They bring back a really talented WR group and should be just as deadly when choosing to MATRICULATE in the passing game.
You don’t get better by losing two likely NFL starters at RB but Georgia has a stockpile of young talent ready to dominate. RB D’Andre Swift should be next in a series of super-productive Bulldog backs and there are plenty of talented youngsters behind him on the depth chart. The offensive line paved the way for 258 (!) yards rushing per game last season (#1 SEC) and should be solid again with 4/5 returning starters and some excellent size.
Georgia improved from 24.5 to 35.4 PPG last year and we forecast another jump in production in 2018.
DEFENSE
The Bulldogs were impressive last year fnishing #6 in total defense, #20 in rushing defense, and #15 in pass effciency D. They only allowed 16.4 PPG and 295 yards per contest. They have just fve returning starters (10 last season) and will be without star LB Roquan Smith (#1 NFL DC – Bears). Thankfully, HC Kirby Smart knows a thing or two about defense and they are still loaded with talent, albeit less experienced. The DL has good size and includes excellent senior Jonathan Ledbetter. LB D’Andre Walker recorded 13.5 TFL and 12 QB hurries last season, and the secondary has a pair of excellent players in senior CB Deandre Baker and 2nd Team SEC S JR Reed. We are encouraged by the talent on hand and believe they will be “coached up” appropriately. They may not match last season’s PPG mark (16.4) but will still comfortably come in below 20 PPG.
SPECIAL TEAMS
We love the look of this group. PK Rodrigo Blankenship is close to automatic (20/23 on FG LY) and Mecole Hardman is one of the most dangerous return men in college football.
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Schedule Analysis
Overall – Diffcult, but manageable. They draw LSU and Auburn out of the West, but as you know, the SEC East is certainly the easier side of the bracket. The non-conference schedule is close to layup material (MTSU, UMass, Georgia Tech, Austin Peay).
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Massachusetts (November 17). This game falls after three straight SEC tilts (Florida, Kentucky, Auburn) and before their season-ending battle with Georgia Tech. The Minutemen are going to be sneaky this season and may be a good play when they catch a bazillion points.
Season Win Total
Over 10.5 -105
Under 10.5 -115
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean to the over. 10.5 is always a tough pill to swallow BUT this team is freaking loaded. If they get past South Carolina on the road in week two (should be about a TD favorite) there is nothing but clear sailing ahead. Sure, there are a couple of tough games, but 11-1 whilst winning the SEC East would be fne with us, yo.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
The Bulldogs claim two consensus national championships (1942, 1980).
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MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 6.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the BULLDOGS a 6.0 ATS Value Rating (Above Average) this season.
MEGALOCKS SEC EAST INSIDERS were NAILS last season calling for a fne season from Georgia ATS……
Ok. We are drinking the Kool-Aid.
The talent at RB and the defense look really good. The offensive line has us a bit worried but they do play on the right side of the SEC. The schedule has a couple of tough ones but we see no “unwinnable” games on the docket. If the defense lives up to potential, and we think that is going to happen, they are gonna cover more than their fair share of games.
Our FUTURES PLAYERS bagged Georgia at over 30-1 and were sitting in a nice hedge position come National Championship day.
What about 2018?
They look loaded. No other way to say it. The offense could be improved even without their two well-known and graduated RB stars. The defense will miss Roquan Smith at LB but there is plenty of young talent that Kirby Smart and company can mold into another great defense. It’s a bit of a leap of faith, but Georgia might be entering the rarefed air of automatic-reload like ROLL TIDE.
Kirby Smart has an impressive 17-10 mark vs the point spread so far, and while they will be on everyone’s radar this season, it seems to us they may be good enough to WHACK people enough to cover at a decent clip.
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KENTUCKY
2017 Recap Record – 7-6 ATS – 4-9
The Cats had a fne season winning seven games whilst losing a pair of one-point heart-breakers to Florida (31 consecutive losses to the Gators…chomp chomp) and Northwestern (missed 2-pt conversion to win). They were blown to bits in the fnal two regular season games against Georgia and Louisville.
HC Mark Stoops has quietly got this program on the right track. Their win totals have steadily increased over his tenure (2-5-5-7-7) but making the next jump may be diffcult in the rugged SEC.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
East Division – #5
SEC – Tied #11
Kentucky Wildcats 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
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This should be interesting. The Wildcats are coming off a rough season MATRICULATING in the passing game (#96 FBS) throwing only 10 TD passes all season. It’s anyone’s guess who starts at QB, but it will almost certainly come down to JC transfer Terry Wilson and sophomore Gunnar Hoak. Amaze your MASSEUSE with this gem. Kentucky does not have a QB on the roster that has attempted an FBS pass. Nobody with more than 400 yards receiving returns from last year’s squad, but they do have an excellent TE in CJ Conrad (17.9 yards per reception LY).
When in doubt, hand the ball to one of the most underrated backs in college football. Benny Snell rushed for over 1,300 yards in 2017 and took it to the house 19 (!) times on the ground. That makes back-to-back 1,000 yard campaigns for the junior and the Wildcats fortunes are tied enormously to his productivity and health. The OL returns 4/5 starters and we foresee the ground game working well provided that they can do something throwing the football.
DEFENSE
Kentucky’s bowl bid hopes will depend largely on the play of the defense. They were decent last season (28.2 points per game) and got some PENETRATION (30 sacks), but the run defense was weak when facing the better SEC teams (4.9 YPC allowed on the season) and pass defense suspect (64% completions). They bring back eight starters to the mix and should have their best performance since 2011 (24.7 PPG allowed). They have a couple of future NFL players in DE Josh Allen (7 sacks LY) and last year’s leading tackler and 1st Team SEC FS Mike Edwards.
SPECIAL TEAMS
This is an area of concern. The Cats move on from their ace PK Austin MacGinnis and must also work in a new P. Oh, and a new PR.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – Not too bad. They avoid the SEC West heavyweights and have a manageable non-conference slate (Chips, Murray St, MTSU, Louisville). Murray
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St is probably the only true layup so they will have to scrap to get to six wins and beyond.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – MTSU (November 17). This is a sandwich deal between a road game at Tennessee and a revenge date with the Cards.
Season Win Total
Over 5.5 -110
Under 5.5 -120
MEGALOCKS says:
We have a neutral stance for now. The schedule is absent from a barrage of signature toughies but there will not be any real breathers. They avoid playing back-to-back road games.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
TWO THUMBS UP for the Kentucky football “Immortals” who fnished ubeaten and untied whilst yielding zero points in 1898.
Kentucky’s last bowl win came in the 2008 Liberty Bowl when they defeated East Carolina by a score of 25-19.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 4.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the WILDCATS a 4.0 ATS Value Rating (Below Average) this season.
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We can’t get past the uncertainty at QB, although it does give the team some upside. They have a monster at RB and a good defense. We worry about the depth on the roster and breaking in a new PK and P.
Kentucky gets full marks for their upward trajectory, but keep in mind that HC Mark Stoops is just 40% ATS in his tenure at Kentucky and has had a hard time exceeding market expectations. They are usually good for an upset or two but it is best to pick your spots with the Wildcats.
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MISSOURI
2017 Recap Record – 7-6 ATS – 7-6
Well, that was neat.
Missouri started out with just one win in their frst six games (Missouri St) but turned on the jets in the 2nd half of the campaign winning six in a row. While it is true that none of those teams fnished with a winning record, it’s not always automatic to win all the games you are supposed to, so they deserve credit. And they did not pack it in on the season. They stumbled in the bowl game losing to a Texas squad with seemingly 88% of their frst and second stringers not playing (a 804 STAR MEGALOCKS ULTRA POWER LOCK LOSER).
Can the Tigers be a threat in the SEC East this season?
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
East Division – #2
SEC – #5
Missouri Tigers 2018 Outlook
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OFFENSE
Whoa, Nellie!
Missouri moved like a TREMENDOUS MACHINE on offense last season putting up over 500 yards of offense per game (#1 SEC, #8 FBS) and gobbling up real estate like it was going out of style (7.1 yards per play; #1 SEC, #6 FBS). They look to be a handful once again as they bring back excellent senior QB Drew Lock (3,964 Y, 44 TD) and a lot of dangerous weapons at RB, WR, and TE. They will be without their #1 rusher (Ish Witter – 1,049) from last season but Larry Rountree and Damarea Crockett combined for 1,110 yards and 8 TDs on the ground in 2017. Their excellent #1 WR (J’Mon Moore – NFL – Green Bay) departs but WR Emanuel Hall had 817 yards receiving last season whilst averaging a comical 24.8 yards per catch. There are other talented wide receivers on hand and TE Albert Okwuegbunam bagged 11 (!) touchdowns in his freshman season.
The best news just might be the offensive line that was fantastic last season in preventing negative plays (13 sacks allowed in 13 games; T5 FBS in sacks allowed per game) (#1 FBS TFL allowed per game) while plowing the way for the run game to average over 5 yards a pop. All fve starters return and this unit will be excellent once again.
DEFENSE
Missouri allowed over 30 points and 400 yards per game last season, but they did get good PENETRATION as they led the SEC (!) in TFL and registered 33 sacks. This year they return 7 starters but will be without last year’s star DE Marcell Frazier who led last year’s squad with 15.5 TFL and 10 QB hurries. Missouri has a good looking LB group with a couple of excellent players (#1, #2 tacklers LY) in Cale Garrett and Terez Hall. They have nice size at DT and the front seven should be pretty good if they can continue to generate pressure. The secondary returns 3/4 starters to the mix but they were pretty average last year (#10 SEC pass effciency D).
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We forecast an improvement this year and the Tigers should hold opponents to under 30 PPG.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Yes, guy.
PK Tucker McCann had a great 2017 campaign nailing 15/17 FG attempts including 4/4 from 40+ yards. P Corey Fatony is solid (#13 net punting LY) and PR Richaud Floyd had 2 TDs in 2017. Excellent looking unit.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – They pull ROLL TIDE out the SEC West and the east is no picnic. The good news is that their non-conference slate is very manageable (UT Martin, Wyoming, Memphis) and the fnal three games are all winnable (Vanderbilt, at Tennessee, Arkansas).
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Vanderbilt (November 10). This game is sandwiched between road dates with Florida and Tennessee and the Commodores are coming in off a bye.
Season Win Total
Over 6.5 -160
Under 6.5 +130
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean to the over. The price is high (-160) but it seems to us like seven or more wins is in the cards.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Don’t forget that Missouri won the SEC East crown in 2013 and 2014.
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MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 9.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the TIGERS a 9.0 ATS Value Rating (Excellent) this season.
The Tigers look really dangerous. The offense is going to be ridiculous and is led by one of the best QBs in college football. We expect better things on defense and the special teams should indeed be “special”. They are a far cry from Georgia on paper, but there is no reason to think they can’t compete for 2nd in the division. Oh, and they get the Bulldogs at home on September 22nd.
Missouri has a mediocre 12-13 mark vs the point spread over the past two seasons. This team feels like a SURPRISE PACKAGE as long as the defense does not regress.
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SOUTH CAROLINA
2017 Recap Record – 9-4 ATS – 9-4
The Gamecocks quietly put together their best season since 2013 when the BALL COACH led them to an 11-2 mark. They were competitive in every game other than the season fnale vs Clemson (34-10 L) and managed to pick up a few quality wins (Michigan, NC State). It wasn’t sexy, but it was effective (#44 defense, #13 turnover margin, #9 fewest penalty yards, #19 net punting).
On paper, they are defnitely as good as anyone in the SEC East, other than Georgia. Oh. Look at that week two game. Georgia visits South Carolina. Hmm.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
East Division – #4
SEC – #8
2018 South Carolina Gamecocks Outlook
OFFENSE
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It seems like QB Jake Bentley has been here forever, and yet he is just in his third season. Bentley tossed 18 TDs last year and ran for another 6. He will greatly appreciate the return of WR Deebo Samuel who missed most of last season due to injury. In fact, we expect really good numbers given talent in the receiving group, and all Bentley needs to do is cut down on the INTs (12 LY) to have an excellent campaign. Losing star TE Hayden Hurst is a blow, that is for sure.
The RB unit is very deep with everyone back for duty and improving the rushing attack has to be a priority for South Carolina (#12 SEC LY, #13 SEC in 2017). Our primary concern is an offensive line that has not done a great job run blocking or in pass protection (70 sacks allowed L2Y combined).
New OC Bryan McClendon should be able to coax more production out of this unit and we forecast a much improved scoring output (24.2 PPG LY) in 2018.
DEFENSE
There has been steady improvement since HC Will Muschamp took over as the Cocks have gone from 27.5 PPG, 430 yards and 20 sacks in 2015 to 20.7, 367 and 26 respectively in just two seasons. South Carolina led the SEC in turnovers gained last year (28), and overall, the Cocks have a +18 turnover margin over the past two seasons. It’s no accident. They are well coached and play hard. Sprinkle in some talent and you have yourself something. Six starters return this year and they have experience at all three levels. DE DJ Wonnum led the team with 13 TFL in 2017 and LB TJ Brunson was #2 on the team in tackles. They will miss LB Skai Moore who graduated after leading the team in tackles for four consecutive seasons.
Will Muschamp and friends should be able to craft another stingy defense. They need to get a bit more PENETRATION to become an elite unit (#12 SEC sacks per game LY, #11 TFL).
SPECIAL TEAMS
The FG attempts from 40+ yards were a FIASCO last season (4/15) and the hope is that Kent St transfer Shane Hynes can do better (9/15 overall LY). They boast
468 MEGALOCKS an excellent P in Joseph Charlton (40.5 net) and star KR Deebo Samuel (2 TD in three games LY). This is a solid group.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – It sets up really well. They miss the big boys from the SEC West and have a manageable non-conference docket (Coastal Carolina, Marshall, Chattanooga) before the season fnale vs Clemson. Oh, and they go an entire month (October) without a true road game.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Nothing really stands out.
Season Win Total
Over 7 -165
Under 7 +145
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean to the over as we go to press. Not crazy about the price but the Gamecocks have a shot in every game. Ok, maybe not at Clemson, but you never know.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
South Carolina has one SEC East crown (2010). During that campaign they defeated the #1 ranked team (ROLL TIDE) for the frst time in school history.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 7.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the GAMECOCKS a 7.0 ATS Value Rating (Good) this season.
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Last year we opined the following about the Gamecocks’ ATS prospects…… This has the look of a dangerous team. They have a fne young QB, lots of experience and a HC that will get them to play with the intensity of 10,000 white-hot suns.
Can we nail it one more time?
We expect more of the same. Scrappy, and with improved QB play this time around. HC Muschamp is 15-11 ATS so far at South Carolina and we feel this team will still fy under-the-radar more often than not. Book a spot in front of your TV for September 8th when Georgia comes to town. There will be INTENSITY.
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TENNESSEE
2017 Recap Record – 4-8 ATS – 2-10
Pure carnage.
Tennessee had a comeback win for the ages in a week one battle with Georgia Tech, but then UNCLE KARMA came for a visit in week three when the Gators beat the Vols on a Hail Mary. The 3-1 start turned into a 4-8 fnish as Tennessee lost seven of their fnal eight games. It was a dreadful campaign. New HC Jeremy Pruitt comes over from ROLL TIDE to try and right the ship. It feels like a sneaky good hire but can it pay dividends in 2018?
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
East Division – #7
SEC – #14
Tennesssee Volunteers 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
471 2018 SEASON PREVIEW
Ugly. Tennessee fnished last season ranked #124 in total offense (#112 rushing, #108 passing). This isn’t Kent St we are talking about here. Amirite? Former USC QB coach and new OC Tyson Helton will try and coax more production out of the group in 2018. The QB battle during fall camp will be between Stanford (!) transfer Keller Chryst and sophomore Jarrett Guarantano. It will be interesting to see who emerges as the front runner. The winner of the starting gig will have the top-2 WRs from last year’s squad returning as well as Jauan Jennings who only had one start in 2017 before being injured.
Last season’s leading rusher John Kelly departs and there is nobody in the depth chart that can boast more than 400 rushing yards during the 2017 campaign. The hope is that a combination of sophomore Ty Chandler and Michigan St transfer Madre London will be a good 1-2 punch. The offensive line returns 3/5 starters and was ravaged by injury last season. It remains to be seen if this unit can produce when healthy. They need to improve over the FIASCO of 2017 (3.4 yards per carry, 35 sacks allowed).
DEFENSE
It is clear that HC Jeremy Pruitt and friends have work to do after witnessing last year’s meltdown. The Volunteers fnished #81 in total defense last year and were a disgusting #125 vs the run (251 yards allowed per game). Mr Pruitt has a great defensive mind but it may take some time to get this unit up to speed with just six returning starters. There are a lot of highly recruited specimens on the roster and that makes us think better times lay ahead sooner rather than later.
The Vols return a pair of starters at each level of the defense and move to a 3-4 confguration this season. They only bagged 22 sacks in 2017 (#13 SEC sacks per game) and will need to achieve more PENETRATION this year in order to give opponents trouble. The good news is that they return their four leading tacklers from last year’s stop unit and it can’t be bad to have experience on the table.
SPECIAL TEAMS
We have some concerns here. PK Brent Cimaglia only made 2/7 FGs from 40+ yards in 2017. They also need to replace their excellent P Trevor Daniel (Vols #2
472 MEGALOCKS net punting LY). KR Ty Chandler took one to the house last season so all is not lost. The SHARP ACTION has them down a notch this season.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – “It was the best of times. It was the worst of times”. .
The schedule is an interesting combination of really tough games (at Georgia, at Auburn, ROLL TIDE, at South Carolina, vs West Virginia, Florida) and winnable ones (East Tennessee St, UTEP, Charlotte, Kentucky, Missouri, at Vanderbilt).
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Charlotte (November 3rd). The overall diffculty of their dance card is what worries us the most, but playing Charlotte after facing Auburn, ROLL TIDE, and South Carolina in consecutive weeks isn’t an optimal spot to cover the point spread. Another SEC squad is on deck (Kentucky).
Season Win Total
Over 5.5 -120
Under 5.5 -110
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean to the under. The Vols will do well to with their nasty set of games if they fnish 1-5. There are free squares (?) against East Tennessee St, UTEP, and Charlotte. It seems like 5.5 is the right number. Would prefer to go under.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Even with their current LONG streak of mediocrity, Tennessee is ranked 12th in all-time win percentage (.677).
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MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 3.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the VOLUNTEERS a 3.0 ATS Value Rating (Below Average) this season.
It feels like a reset year for the Vols. We are optimistic for the future given the coaching hire and raw talent on board (and coming), but it may take a year to get their sea legs under the watch of Jeremy Pruitt. It’s going to be diffcult to fnd consistency on offense in year one and the defense that was torn to pieces last season is going to face half a dozen killers in 2018.
The Vols were just 7-17-1 against the point spread the past two years and that gives a bit of pause when forecasting another down season ATS. The Value Rating is a combination of the probability of having a winning mark against the number (Vols rating – very low) and a measure of “how bad” it could get in 2018 (Vols rating – pretty bad but not a horror show given market expectations are already low).
We recommend looking for solid “play against” spots until/unless they show they are better than advertised.
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VANDERBILT
2017 Recap Record – 5-7 ATS – 4-8
Slip sliding away.
Vanderbilt started off with three straight wins including a win over Kansas St, but the defense fell to pieces during SEC play and they only managed one win over their next eight games. They fnished on a strong note by laying a 42-24 beating to hated rival Tennessee. Can they get back to a bowl game in 2018?
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
East Division – #6
SEC – #13
Vanderbilt Commodores 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Commodores’ offense struggled last season (24.6 PPG) but there is no doubt that QB Kyle Shurmur did his part throwing a school record 26 TD passes. The offensive line did an excellent job in pass protection (just 19 sacks allowed in
475 2018 SEASON PREVIEW over 400 team attempts) and gave plenty of time for Shurmur to MATRICULATE down the feld in the passing game. WR Kalija Lipscomb is back this season and he averaged over 16 yards per catch while snagging 8 TDs. Overall, the talent appears to be decent and a solid senior QB like Shurmur should be able to have another 25+ TD campaign.
The bad news? They lose their all-time leading rusher Ralph Webb (top 10 all- time SEC) and it is unclear exactly what kind of talent they have in the backfeld. The hope is for Illinois transfer Ke’Shawn Vaughn to be a productive #1 back. Vandy’s rushing offense was brutal last season (#120 FBS – 107 yards per game) but will hopefully get better with 5/5 returning starters (all 300+ pounds) on the OL. It remains to be seen how much improved the ground attack will be, but there is no doubt it has to be a lot better for the Commodores to make a bowl game.
DEFENSE
Vanderbilt got ripped to shreds in SEC play last year allowing 44+ points on FIVE separate occasions. The run defense came really close to allowing 200 yards (199 – #12 SEC) per contest and needs to step up. New DC Jason Tarver only has fve returning starters to work with and the last time Vandy had less than seven RS they allowed a horrid 33 PPG. There are some nice pieces including last season’s leading tackler S LaDarius Wiley, 2nd Team SEC honoree LB Charles Wright (9 sacks LY) and DE Dayo Odeyingbo (11 TFL, 4 QBH LY).
We understand that HC Derek Mason knows a thing or two about defense, but the unit appears to be lacking in size (DL) and experience.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Yikes. Vanderbilt tied for last in the FBS in 2017 with just THREE (!) made FG all season. Yup, right there with juggernauts like UTEP and Rice. They will introduce a new P and PK this season, and could also use some additional spice in the return game. Double yikes. And triple yikes.
Schedule Analysis
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Overall – It’s not that bad. They avoid ROLL TIDE, Auburn and LSU from the SEC West, and the season starts out with a few winnable games in the frst fve. They end with home games vs Ole Miss and Tennessee. The bad news? The middle stretch of the season is tough with four road test in fve games (six weeks). The path is there for a bowl bid but they need to avoid a slow start.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Arkansas (October 27). This is their 3rd road test in four weeks having already played three SEC East foes (Georgia, Florida, Kentucky).
Season Win Total
Over 4 -110
Under 4 -120
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean to the over. Vanderbilt has not lost 9 games since 2010 and that is what it would take to lose this bet. They have a senior QB and should be scrappy enough to get 4+ wins.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
The only Commodore player to win SEC Offensive Player of the Year was your boy, Jay Cutler, back in 2005.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 3.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the COMMODORES a 3.0 ATS Value Rating (Below Average) this season.
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They have a fne senior QB. We are just unsure about how the run defense gets fxed and still worry about the ground game. Did we mention that they lose their all-time leading rusher? HC Derek Mason is sub-.500 ATS during his tenure at Vanderbilt and we think it will be really diffcult to exceed point spread expectations in 2018.
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SOUTHEASTERN CONFERENCE (SEC)
WEST DIVISION
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ALABAMA
2017 Recap Record – 13-1 ATS – 6-7-1
ROLL TIDE.
Alabama got all they could handle from Georgia in the College Football Playoff championship game and needed OT to pull out the 3-point win. That makes FIVE National Championships in the last nine years. Wow. Nick Saban enters his 12th season in Tuscaloosa and looks to make it an even half-dozen titles with the Crimson Tide. Are they still a cut above the rest of the SEC?
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
West Division – #1
SEC – #1
Alabama Crimson Tide 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
It’s an embarrassment of riches all over the roster, and the QB position is no exception. Jalen Hurts had a stellar 17-1 (!) TD to INT ratio last season while
480 MEGALOCKS rushing for 855 yards and 8 TDs (2nd team SEC). Back-up Tua Tagovailoa had to save the day in the title game and he DELIVERED with a comeback performance for the ages. It’s still unclear as we go to press exactly who will start under center, but we do know that Tagovailoa provides more spark to the passing attack. Alabama will ROLL regardless of the starting QB selection but we are interested to see how this all plays out.
The Crimson Tide have tallied 251 and 245 yards rushing per game over the past two seasons (#13, #12) and they should be excellent once again. They return a 1,000-yard back in Damien Harris (7.4 YPC LY) and boast a ton of young talent behind him. The offensive line is in great shape with four returning starters including 3rd team AA LT Jonah Williams. When they choose to MATRICULATE down the feld in the passing game they will have to do so without star WR Calvin Ridley (#1 DC – Atlanta) who was the only player on ROLL TIDE to have more than 20 receptions in 2017 (!). There are a lot of highly-touted youngsters ready to step up, and some of them already started to emerge last season (Jerry Jeudy, Henry Ruggs).
Alabama has averaged between 35 and 39 points per game in each of the past fve seasons. We project them to hit the top end of that range in 2018.
DEFENSE
ROLL TIDE had injuries to contend with last season but still ended up allowing their fewest PPG (11.9) since 2012 when they yielded just 10.9 points per contest. The run defense “struggled” a bit more than usual given the aforementioned injuries, but they still fnished ranked #1 in rush defense (3rd consecutive season allowing less than 100 yards rushing per game). They were also #1 in total defense and #2 in pass effciency D. Ok, what about this year? Alabama needs to work in eight (!) new starters and have an entirely new starting crew in the LB and DB groups. The DL should be devastating with AA DE Raekwon Davis back and the depth chart is littered with highly-touted and talented youngsters ready to craft the next great Alabama D. They had to deal with just fve returning starters in three of the past four seasons so a reload should go smoothly. The secondary is young and the unit we are most interested in evaluating over the frst month or so. They will get a test week one vs Louisville.
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It is not a super hot take, but we project another top-5 fnish in total defense. The question becomes, can the better offenses on their schedule take advantage of the relative lack of experience compared to recent ROLL TIDE stop units?
SPECIAL TEAMS
Alabama was pretty average in the return game last season and they must replace their excellent punter JK Scott (NFL – Green Bay) and their PK. They scooped up Temple grad transfer PK Austin Jones which could be a good “score” for the feld goal unit.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – The schedule looks pretty easy to us. They catch Louisville in a down phase (?) and get to beat up on Arkansas St (scrappy, but we know what will happen), Louisiana and something called The Citadel in non-conference play. They only play four true road games and the single tough one among those appears to be the game at LSU. They get Auburn at home for the Iron Bowl.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Louisiana (September 29). This game pops up in a Texas A&M / Arkansas sandwich and ROLL TIDE is sure to be laying about 5 touchdowns. Feels like a game they will have no serious interest in covering and/or there could be some SWEET BACKDOOR ACTION for those backing the Cajuns. Beware!
Season Win Total
Over 11 +115
Under 11 -135
MEGALOCKS says:
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Yuck. Feels like a tough number (+115) to bet on an undefeated regular season. 11 wins seems safe for a push, but we would prefer to go over a number like 10.5 -150 (for example). Pass for now.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Bryant-Denny stadium has a capacity of 101,821 making it the 8th largest non- racing stadium on the planet.
Did we mention Alabama has won fve of the last nine National Titles?
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 6.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the CRIMSON TIDE a 6.0 ATS Value Rating (Above Average) this season.
Shockingly, we anticipate great things for Alabama this season. The offense should be better than last season, even with the departure of star WR Calvin Ridley. The defense is always lights out and we expect another excellent performance. They need to break in a new OC and DC but they have proven to be resilient when it comes to overcoming changes in the coaching staff. The SEC is not loaded with high-quality teams and it seems to us that ROLL TIDE will be able to scoot through the regular season and get to the SEC Title game.
Alabama is an impressive 57.7% (!) against the point spread over the past 10 seasons. That is truly impressive given the fact that they are essentially NEVER an underdog, and are usually laying double digits. You have to pay a premium to bet on these guys, but it often doesn’t matter. We recommend at least considering them for play every week, other than when they are laying enormous numbers.
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ARKANSAS
2017 Recap Record – 4-8 ATS – 4-7-1
Yuck.
The Hogs struggled last season with a mark of 4-8 and that meant the end of the Bret Bielema experiment at Arkansas. When you look back at the 2017 campaign, it just seems wrong that the only wins were vs powerhouses Florida A&M, New Mexico St, Ole Miss and Coastal Carolina. Last year marked the third time in the past six seasons that Arkansas had four or fewer wins. New HC Chad Morris has work to do but there is defnitely talent on the roster. Let’s go!
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
West Division – #7
SEC – Tied #11
Arkansas Razorbacks 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
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This will be the frst time in a while that we do not get an “Allen” at QB. Chad Morris and new OC Joe Craddock will add more tempo and (hopefully) explosiveness to an offense that generated just 28.8 points and 373 yards per game in 2017. Those were the worst marks since the 2013 season. There appears to be potential at QB with Cole Kelley and Ty Storey both still in the mix for the starting gig. Almost the entire WR and TE groups return and we are excited to see how quickly the Hogs can become dangerous on offense. The OL yielded 35 (!) sacks for the 2nd straight season and that needs to get cleaned up. There are four returning starters but they do lose ALL-WORLD C Frank Ragnow (#1 NFL DC – Detroit). We like the look of the running back unit in terms of depth as Devwah Whaley and Chase Hayden combined for almost 900 yards and 11 TDs last year, and they have some talented youngsters on the depth chart. We don’t expect them to go nuts on the scoreboard but we do see them topping 30 points per game, especially if they can uncover a star at WR.
DEFENSE
Arkansas allowed the most points in school history last season (!) (36.2) whilst fnishing last in the SEC in sacks and TFL. New DC John Chavis has excellent SEC pedigree and will need to work some magic. The good news is that they return eight starters and have a lot of returning experience, especially at DL and LB. The improved coaching and switch to a 4-3 scheme should help the Hogs get much more PENETRATION and cause more problems for opposing offenses. It’s unclear if there are any stars to rely upon, but we like the fact they bring back their four leading tacklers including a pair of LBs that recorded 100 tackles each in 2017 (De’Jon Harris, Dre Greenlaw). Our biggest concern is the CB situation but hopefully they can do a reasonable job with more help from the pass rush. We do not expect miracles but can see a TD or so improvement from the 2017 DEBACLE.
SPECIAL TEAMS
We like how things are shaping up. PK Connor Limpert was 8/9 on FG attempts last season and KR De’Vion Warren averaged over 26 yards per return and took one to the house.
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Schedule Analysis
Overall – The docket looks very manageable. There is no reason to think they can’t start off the campaign with three wins, although games against Colorado St and North Texas are not free squares. They have a three game stretch later on in the season with consecutive games vs Ole Miss, Tulsa and Vanderbilt. Not a Murderers’ row.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – North Texas (September 15). This comes after a rare road game vs a non-power 5 team (Colorado St) and before the start of SEC play (at Auburn). North Texas can light it up and we would be leery of laying the wood in this match-up.
Season Win Total
Over 5.5 -130
Under 5.5 +100
MEGALOCKS says:
Strong lean to the over. As noted above, there are a number of winnable games this season, and it feels like the worst-case scenario is a 5-6 record heading into the season fnale at Missouri.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
If you want to CALL THE HOGS like the MEGALOCKS POSSE did during this year’s College World Series, check out the PRO TIP noted below.
Woooooooo, Pig! Sooie!
Woooooooo, Pig! Sooie!
Woooooooo, Pig! Sooie!
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Razorbacks!
Arkansas has an all-time record of 701-475-40 (.593) but just a 15-24-3 record (.393) record in bowl games.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 6.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the RAZORBACKS a 6.0 ATS Value Rating (Above Average) this season.
There is truly only one way to go, and that is up. The question becomes, how quickly can Chad Morris get the program to an acceptable level of performance? There are lots of changes to deal with (HC, OC, DC, QB) but one cannot ignore the improvement made in the coaching department and experience on the roster (17 returning starters). GLASS HALF-EMPTY GUY could argue it means nothing returning that much experience when they were so bad in 2017, but there is hope and energy around the program heading into the season. A manageable schedule and low expectations should help these guys have a winning season vs the point spread.
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AUBURN
2017 Recap Record – 10-4 ATS – 5-7-2
So close, yet so far.
Auburn was on a big roll after defeating Georgia AND Alabama (!) in the span of three weeks, but it all fell apart in the rematch with the Bulldogs in the SEC Championship game. Auburn crapped the bed in the Peach Bowl (90,100 STAR MEGALOCKS PEACH BOWL DEBACLE LOSER) but still fnished up the season at 10-4. They were really talented as evidenced by three of their losses coming to Clemson, Georgia and an undefeated UCF squad, but it’s still hard to get our collective heads around how they blew a 20-cack lead vs LSU. Can the Tigers make another run in 2018? Let’s dig in.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
West Division – #2
SEC – #3
Auburn Tigers 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
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The Tigers were really balanced last season (218/233 rush/pass YPG) and averaged 34 points per game (#4 SEC). Auburn returns ace signal caller Jarrett Stidham (1st team SEC) who threw for over 3,000 yards last season and only tossed 6 INT in 370 attempts. Auburn returns nearly everyone from a talented WR group although the status of Will Hastings and Eli Stove are still unknown (ACL injuries) as we go to press. The good news is that they bring back Ryan Davis (84 receptions) and Darius Slayton (22 YPC). Auburn will need to do a better job in pass protection if they want to consistently MATRICULATE down the feld in the passing game (#13 SEC sacks allowed per game). Auburn must move on without star RB Kerryon Johnson (1,391, 18 TD) but have a lot of young talent to rely upon including last season’s #2 rusher Kam Martin. The Tigers only bring back one returning starter to the OL and they will need to gel quickly if they want to enjoy the same success and balance as last season.
DEFENSE
Auburn’s D was mighty impressive last year allowing just 18.5 points per game whilst fnishing #14 in total defense, #35 in rush defense and #19 in pass effciency D. That’s two straight seasons in which they have yielded less than twenty points per contest. Things look promising again as they bring back seven starters (3/3 on DL) to the mix in 2018. They lose leading sack man Jeff Holland (10 sacks LY) but we still forecast a similar PENETRATION level (37 sacks LY) given the talent and experience in the front seven. The secondary is a bit of a question mark as they return just a pair of starters, and overall, Auburn only picked off 6 (!) passes in 2017. We don’t think Auburn will allow 319 (!) yards per game like last season but we do think they will hold opponents to less than 20 PPG even with the killer schedule (more below).
SPECIAL TEAMS
Auburn is going to miss ALL-UNIVERSE PK Daniel Carlson who was nominated for the Lou Groza Award multiple times. Hopefully Anders Carlson (bro, yo) can maintain the family tradition of excellence. They may go with Aussie (shocker – Australia domination!) recruit Arryn Siposs at P. The return game could use some additional spice. Overall, we have mixed feelings about the group. We will call it a potential team weakness until proven otherwise.
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Schedule Analysis
Overall – YIKES. It is nasty. They start off with one of the best teams in college football in week one (Washington) and face LSU and potential JUGGERNAUT Mississippi St in the frst half of the season. They have road dates with Georgia and ROLL TIDE in the fnal three weeks of the campaign. They only have four true road games but they are going to have a hard time navigating this schedule without some carnage.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Southern Miss (September 29). This game resides in an SEC sandwich (Arkansas / Mississippi St) and the Eagles are no slouch.
Season Win Total
Over 9 -115
Under 9 -105
MEGALOCKS says:
Slightest of leans to the under as we go to press. Auburn would have to be better than last year’s squad to navigate the docket with a 10-2 mark. Nine wins seems about right. At a 115/105 price point, it feels like the under is a better play as our AUBURN INSIDERS feel it is more likely they fnish with 8 or fewer wins than 10+.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
“War Eagle” is the Auburn battle cry and dates back to the frst Auburn game in 1892. A civil war veteran brought a golden eagle to the game which he’d found on the battlefeld and nursed back to health. Amaze your SLIGHTLY CREEPY REAL ESTATE AGENT with that knowledge bomb.
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MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 4.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the TIGERS a 4.0 ATS Value Rating (Below Average) this season.
There is no doubt these boys are talented. The offense is loaded (QB,RB,WR) and the front seven on defense will be one of the best in the FBS. The offensive line and secondary give us pause.
Auburn’s point spread record has been dismal the past four years (37%) (!), and while REGRESSION TO THE MEAN GUY may want to pound the living daylights out of Auburn vs the Vegas line every week, we think a more prudent approach is to use caution and pick your spots with this squad.
491 2018 SEASON PREVIEW
LSU
2017 Recap Record – 9-4 ATS – 8-5
The Tigers had a pretty good season all things considered. They fnished strong winning six of their fnal seven games, and that included wins over Florida, Auburn and Texas A&M. Their only loss was a respectable effort at ROLL TIDE in which they lost by 2 TDs whilst winning the stats (more yards and frst downs). They lost a close one to Notre Dame (21-17) and fnished up with nine wins. There are a lot of new faces on board this season. Can they stay in the SEC West race? Let’s take a look.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
West Division – #5
SEC – #9
LSU Tigers 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Tigers have scored less than 30 points per game in three of the past four seasons, and the hope is that Ohio St grad transfer QB Joe Burrow can spark the
492 MEGALOCKS offense to better things in 2018. The WR group is probably the strength of the offense on paper with a lot of raw talent and size. Jonathan Giles sat out a season and had over 1,100 yards at Texas Tech in 2016. The OL allowed 30 sacks for the frst time since 2012, and they will need to clean things up for the passing game to hum.
As Phil Steele notes in his awesome mag, this is the frst time LSU has returned zero TDs at RB since 1974. Last season they lost the beast Leonard Fournette, and this year they lose their top two (Darrius Guice, Darrell Williams) who combined for over 2,000 (!) yards and 20 (!) rushing TDs last year. Our best guess is that it will be a committee of talented (but unproven) guys rotating throughout the game. Maybe a star emerges? The OL returns three starters and should be fne, but LSU’s streak of fve straight seasons with 200+ yards rushing/game may come to an end given the nasty defenses on their docket.
DEFENSE
Ace DC Dave Aranda only has fve returning starters to work with, but a few of those guys are stars, and there are highly-recruited players littering the roster. The DL has comical size with several dudes crossing the 300 pound mark. LB Devin White was a 2nd Team AA and one of the best defensive players in college football last season. The secondary brings back 3/4 starters including 1st team SEC CB Greedy Williams. LSU bagged 39 sacks last year (#11 FBS sacks per game) and had a fne 11 TD to 12 INT ratio (#9 pass effciency D). We expect another excellent performance in which opposing teams are held to less than 20 points and 325 yards per game.
SPECIAL TEAMS
LSU will miss PR DJ Chark who returned two for TDs last season including a big one in the comeback win over Auburn. They were just 16/27 on FGs last season and the hope is for Assumption College transfer Cole Tracy to do a better job. This feels like an average SEC unit.
Schedule Analysis
493 2018 SEASON PREVIEW
Overall – KILLER. No other way to say it. The SEC West docket plus Miami, Florida and Georgia.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Rice (November 17). Nasty little sandwich between back to back SEC games (Hogs, A & M). They will be laying a bundle. Probably a spot to avoid the big chalk.
Season Win Total
7 over -120
7 under +100
MEGALOCKS says:
No lean as we go to press. We have already noted how tough the schedule will be in 2018. Seven still seems a bit light given the talent on hand.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Our SMOKING HOT INTERNS found this gem. LSU’s Tiger Stadium was referred to as DEAF (not death) VALLEY due to the loud cheering during games. Apparently, it was transformed to DEATH VALLEY thanks to reporters, television and other media types misunderstanding DEAF vs DEATH. This may not be entirely true (the internet is wonderful) but there is probably more truth than not to the story.
The Tigers have not had a negative turnover margin since 2008 when they were (-1). Last season they were +10.
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MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 3.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the TIGERS a 3.5 ATS Value Rating (Below Average) this season.
LSU has won 8,9,8 and 9 games over the past four campaigns. In the previous four seasons they registered 11,13, 10 and 10 victories. Fans are getting restless, and expectations are high. There is still a lot of talent on board but how quickly can they gel? How do they deal with the brutal schedule? We think the increased focus on the passing game will help. And the defense will be solid. We worry about the running game not working well vs tough defenses and too much pressure being put on the QB position. Joe Burrow has potential, but we really don’t know how things will play out.
LSU managed to fake out Vegas (and our point spread expectations) last year, but overall, HC Ed Orgeron is 32-31-1 (50.8%) ATS, and LSU has bagged just three winning seasons ATS in the past 10 years (includes some Les Miles years). We feel this may be a season where the Tigers fail more often than not to cover the number.
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MISSISSIPPI ST
2017 Recap Record – 9-4 ATS – 8-5
The Bulldogs had a fne 2017 campaign winning 9+ games for the 3rd time in four seasons. They lost back-to-back games on the road (Auburn, Georgia) by a combined score of 80-13, but they did manage to hammer LSU 37-7 and give ROLL TIDE all they could handle in a 31-24 loss. New HC Joe Moorhead comes over from Penn St to try and get these guys over the hump. Is 2018 too soon?
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
West Division – #3
SEC – #4
Mississippi St Bulldogs 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
Here we go! QB Nick Fitzgerald has one more kick at the cat in his senior season, and MEGALOCKS ANKLE INJURY INSIDERS tell us that he looks ready to go after suffering a nasty injury in the late season loss to Ole Miss. Fitzgerald threw for 15 TDs and ran for another 14 (!) in 2017. If he can stay
496 MEGALOCKS healthy and clean up the INT (11 LY) the Bulldogs will be in excellent shape. Backup QB Keytaon Thompson guided Mississippi St to a bowl win over Louisville and would be a fne replacement if something unexpected occurs. We really wish that there was more potential at WR but we just don’t see it. Nobody on the Bulldogs roster had more than 300 (!) yards receiving in 2017. Maybe HC Moorhead can oversee some improvement from the unit.
Do NOT sleep on this running back group, yo. They return their top-3 including 1,100-yard rusher Aeris Williams, and when you combine that with the running ability of QB Fitzgerald, it spells NIGHTMARE for opposing defenses. The Bulldogs had the #2 rushing offense in the SEC (#11 FBS) and we see them having another fne season with 4 starters returning to the OL.
DEFENSE
Yes, guy.
Mississippi St was fantastic on defense last season fnishing #10 in the FBS in total defense (306 yards per game), #28 in run defense and #27 in pass effciency D. Their 20.9 points allowed was the best mark since 2011 when they yielded just 19.7 points per contest. New DC Bob Shoop has lots of TOOLS IN THE TOOLBOX with 8 returning starters including 4/4 to an excellent DL. DE Montez Sweat (1st Team SEC) in an underrated star who was the SEC co-leader in sacks whilst registering 15.5 TFL. Last season’s leading tackler S Mark McLaurin is back for duty as are 14 of the top 17 tacklers overall. We forecast another fne season on defense.
SPECIAL TEAMS
It seems like an average group. They should be fne in the FG department, and PR Deddrick Thomas took one to the house in 2017. They do need to replace their excellent P Logan Cooke (NFL – JAX).
Schedule Analysis
497 2018 SEASON PREVIEW
Overall – The schedule is tough but not unmanageable. If they can get past a scrappy Kansas St team in week 2, it should be clear sailing until September 29 when they meet Florida at home. Oh ya, we think the Gators’ new head coach used to coach somewhere else in the SEC?
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Arkansas (November 17). This game appears after a tough battle with ROLL TIDE and before the EGG BOWL (Ole Miss). Arkansas just might be a SURPRISE PACKAGE this season. Beware!
Season Win Total
Over 8.5 +110
Under 8.5 -130
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean to the over. The schedule is a bit nasty BUT there is no reason to think these guys will lose four games. At plus money (+110) it feels like a solid play.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
The Battle for the Golden Egg (Egg Bowl) was frst played in 1901 and has been played every year since 1915 (1943 exception – WW II).
The last (and only) time the Bulldogs captured the SEC championship was back in 1941.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 8.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the BULLDOGS a 8.0 ATS Value Rating (Very Good) this season.
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The Bulldogs are set for a really good run. They have an excellent dual- threat senior QB, great running game and stingy defense. The schedule has some tough tests, but even though they play in the SUPER GROUP OF DEATH (Big 10 East is the GROUP OF DEATH), there is no reason to think they can’t head into Tuscaloosa with a puncher’s chance of taking a lead in the division.
Mississippi St has done well in four of the past fve seasons against the point spread, and it seems to us that they will be under-the-radar in 2018 with ROLL TIDE, Auburn, LSU and a sexy-coaching-change squad Texas A&M. They get on the watch list to start the season.
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OLE MISS
2017 Recap Record – 6-6 ATS – 5-7
Well it wasn’t a real “bowl” victory, but winning the Egg Bowl by beating hated rival Mississippi St in the regular season fnale had to feel just as good, or even better than a win in the SONIC TATER TOTS BOWL. Amirite? Ole Miss had every reason to shut it down late in the season but they fought to the end and won three of their fnal four games to fnish up at 6-6. Matt Luke enters his second full season as HC and will have to work more MOTIVATIONAL MAGIC as the Rebels are ineligible for bowl season again in 2018.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
West Division – #6
SEC – #10
Mississippi Rebels 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
Get ‘cho popcone. There are going to be plenty of points as the Rebels have one of the best WR groups in all of college football and a QB that has proven to be
500 MEGALOCKS really dangerous. Jordan Ta’amu picked up where Shea Patterson left off (injured after 7 starts) and had a fne 11-4 TD to INT ratio while rushing for another four TDs on the ground. WR AJ Brown was a 2nd Team AA in 2017 and hauled in 75 passes for 1,252 yards and 11 TDs. The Rebels’ top three WRs caught a combined 28 TD receptions last season and they all averaged over 16 yards a pop. The passing game will be deadly again.
They will have to fnd another #1 RB as leading rusher Jordan Wilkins (1,011, 9 TD) departs, but the new guys will have an experienced OL to run behind (4 returning starters). Ole Miss scored 32.8 points per game last season and we can see them banking about 35/game in 2018.
DEFENSE
This could be trouble. Ole Miss has yielded 34+ points and 245+ rushing yards in each of the past two campaigns. They return 7 starters on defense but will need to fnd a new pair of pass rushing DEs as both of last year’s stars (Breeland Speaks, Marquis Haynes) are off to the NFL. They will also be without their 2-time leading tackler LB DeMarquis Gates (114 tackles, 10 TFL LY). They bring back 4/4 starters in the secondary and the projected group has two juniors and a pair of seniors. Their DT duo has impressive size, but overall, Ole Miss will need to force more turnovers (13 – #13 SEC in 2017) and fnd replacements for the departed PENETRATION at DE. Oh ya, and things will not go well if they get steamrolled on the ground for a 3rd straight season. It feels like it will be a struggle on defense and they will be on the feld a lot given how fast the offense works, and how quickly they can score.
SPECIAL TEAMS
KR Jaylon Jones bagged a TD last season and averaged 25 yards a pop. We worry about the introduction of a new PK and P.
Schedule Analysis
501 2018 SEASON PREVIEW
Overall – It looks very challenging. Yes, there are some MORTAL LOCKS (***) in here (S Illinois, Kent St), but there is the SEC West docket to contend with as well as games vs Texas Tech and South Carolina.
*** Reminder. Every time the word LOCK or anything resembling LOCK is used, please note that we are being sarcastic.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – ULM (October 6). This will be their 2nd epic sandwich game to contend with as they battle the potent WARHAWKS in between road dates with LSU and Arkansas. The earlier Kent St game comes between matches with ROLL TIDE and LSU. The Golden Flashes are famous for being absolutely horrible at times, so we are a bit more concerned about the ULM game from a point spread perspective.
Season Win Total
Over 6 -135
Under 6 +105
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean to the under. It’s really hard to see them getting to seven wins with this schedule. It’s not impossible, but that defense is going to leave fans tearing their hair out at times. Need to do more work on this one.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Ole Miss last won the SEC conference championship back in 1963.
ROLL TIDE crushed Ole Miss 66-3 last season. The Rebels had outscored Alabama by a combined score of 109-102 in their previous three encounters.
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MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 4.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the REBELS a 4.5 ATS Value Rating (Slightly Below Average) this season.
This is going to be a really fun team to watch. The offense could be LIGHTS OUT, and don’t run to the beer fridge for too long during commercial breaks, because that defense will be more than capable of yielding big plays. The schedule is sneaky tough, and we can see them getting upset at least once or twice along the way. The good news is that they have enough frepower to SHOCK THE WORLD themselves.
We have a hard time getting past the (on paper) weakness on defense and special teams and will prefer to pick our spots when backing the Rebels this year.
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TEXAS AM
2017 Recap Record – 7-6 ATS – 7-4-2
The Aggies fnished with a bit of a whimper losing four of their fnal six games, and that included a three point loss to Wake Forest in the almost-always-crazy Belk Bowl (55-52 Demon Deacons). The win total for Texas A&M has been creeping down since 2012 (11-9-8-8-8-7) and Jimbo Fisher will try and get the program moving in the right direction towards the top of the SEC West.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
West Division – #4
SEC – Tied #6
Texas A&M Aggies 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Aggies have fne potential to work with at QB as a pair of talented sophomores in Nick Starkel (laser rocket arm) and Kellen Mond (great with his legs) are ready to battle for the starting gig. MEGALOCKS TEXAS A&M QB INSIDERS feel that Starkel will get the nod (499 yards passing in bowl game)
504 MEGALOCKS but the Aggies have to feel good about having a pair of experienced QBs (even if they are only sophomores). Trayveon Williams (798, 8 TD) leads a group of RBs that get to work behind a talented and experienced offensive line.
They will be without their top-2 WRs from last year’s unit including star WR/return JUGGERNAUT Christian Kirk (#2 NFL DC – Arizona) but still have quite a bit of young talent on board. Texas A&M averaged only four yards per carry in 2017 (#11 SEC) and struggled with their lowest rushing yards per game average (156) since 2014. They should have more success with the ground attack this year and fnish right around last year’s scoring production of 32.7 PPG.
DEFENSE
PENETRATION, yo.
Texas A&M had an impressive 42 sacks last season (#1 SEC sacks per game, T2 FBS) and have bagged 82 over the past two seasons combined. The vast majority of that production returns in 2018, and overall, the Aggies can boast 8 returning starters. Those eight men include 3rd Team SEC DL Landis Durham (10.5 sacks) and 2nd Team SEC LB Tyrel Dodson (#1 tackler in 2017 – 105). The secondary brings back 3/4 starters and also get S Donovan Wilson back this season (injured early last year).
Not only do we appreciate the PENETRATION, but the run defense has been steadily improving since 2013 in terms of rushing yards per game (222,216,214,192,171). Texas A&M allowed 30.7 points per game in 2017 but we project a signifcant improvement this year.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Ouch. Texas A&M will be without all-UNIVERSE return man Christian Kirk, as well as their excellent P Shane Tripucka. They still boast excellent PK Daniel LaCamera (18/21 FG LY) but appear to be an average (or worse) unit on paper.
Schedule Analysis
505 2018 SEASON PREVIEW
Overall – Whoa. They have an epic home battle with Clemson (September 8) that should be appointment television. Oh ya, and they also have road dates with ROLL TIDE and Auburn.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – ULM (September 15). The MOTHER OF ALL SANDWICH GAMES. How about taking on a potential Sun Belt JUGGERNAUT in between games with Clemson and ROLL TIDE? The spread will be large. Beware!
Season Win Total
Over 7 -145
Under 7 +115
MEGALOCKS says:
We hate the painfully easy exercise of going through the schedule and anointing wins and losses. Things are often more easy (or diffcult) than you think. The reality is that a date with Clemson and road tilts with ROLL TIDE, Auburn and Mississippi St are all REALLY tough games. If you are playing the “over”, you need 8+ wins to cash, and it seems like a big ask given the teams they face in 2018. The team has too much talent to go 6-6. Taking a pass for now.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Texas A&M was a member of the Big 12 for four years and made the Championship game twice (lost to CORN, beat Kansas St).
Johnny FOOTBALL originally committed to play football at Oregon.
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MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 6.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the AGGIES a 6.5 ATS Value Rating (Above Average) this season.
Texas A&M looks pretty good on paper. The problem is the schedule. The SEC West docket is nasty and they also get Clemson and South Carolina. The offense may struggle a bit in the transition to the JIMBO offense, but the defense will be much improved. This feels like a squad whose power rating will trump the win-loss record. They will still fy a bit under-the- radar so don’t be afraid to stick your toe in the pool once in a while.
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SUN BELT CONFERENCE
EAST DIVISION
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APPALACHIAN ST
2017 Recap Record – 9-4 ATS – 6-7
The Mountaineers took a bit of a licking but kept on ticking. They were sitting at 5-4 after a road loss to ULM but dominated down the stretch and grabbed a share of the Sun Belt title. They outscored their Sun Belt foes 121-30 (!) in the fnal three regular season games and then destroyed a really good Toledo team in the Dollar General Bowl (34-0) (!).
Let’s see how things are shaping up for the Mountaineers in 2018.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
East Division – #2
Sun Belt – #3
Appalachian St Mountaineers 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
The Mountaineers move on without four-year starter Taylor Lamb who fnished his career as the school’s 3rd all-time leading passer (9,786). It appears as though
509 2018 SEASON PREVIEW the starting QB gig will go to sophomore Zac Thomas who only attempted 10 passes in 2017. Lamb was very effcient but the hope is that Thomas will be able to do a better job of stretching the feld. The WR corps is very talented and will enjoy the infusion of a pair of Kansas St transfers.
Appalachian St will rely upon their excellent RB Jalin Moore (1st Team Sun Belt, 1,037, 12 rushing TD LY) to carry the bulk of the load but they also have depth behind him including Marcus Williams (500, 5.2, 2 TD) and some intriguing youngsters. The offensive line did a fne job last year (224 YPG rushing, just 8 sacks allowed) and bring back three starters including 1st Team Sun Belt honoree LT Victor Johnson.
The Mountaineers were very balanced last season (#36 rushing, #39 passing) and should be able to stay that way this year, even with a new starting QB.
DEFENSE
Appalachian St has been solid on defense the past four seasons never allowing more than 350 YPG (2012 – 348). This year they only return fve starters to the stop unit and that is the fewest total since 2014 (6). The DL should be fne but we worry about the loss of their excellent LB and leading tackler Eric Boggs (1st Team Sun Belt) who was crushing and killing when not peppering balls off the Green Monster. The secondary is stacked with TWO 1st Team Sun Belt CBs (Clifton Duck, Tae Hayes) who combined for 10 INTs and 18 PBUs in 2017.
The defense should be solid provided they can continue to apply pressure to opposing QBs (38 sacks LY – #3 Sun Belt in sacks per game).
SPECIAL TEAMS
The Mountaineers FG kicking was adequate last season (17/24) and both kickers are back this year. They also have continuity at P and in the PR unit.
Schedule Analysis
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Overall – It’s not too bad. Sure, the opener against Penn St will not be a treat, but they will be able to win any of their other games.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Texas St (November 10). This will be their 3rd consecutive road game and 4th game away from home in a span of fve conference tilts. Last season the Mountaineers only won 20-13 (at Texas St) despite being 22-point favorites.
Season Win Total
Over 8.5 +115
Under 8.5 -145
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean to the over. Taking a bit of plus money to lose three games or less seems reasonable. It might come down to their fnal two games (Georgia St, Troy) but both of those contests are in Boone.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Mack Brown (ya, that Mack Brown) coached Appalachian St to a 6-5 record in 1983.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 5.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the MOUNTAINEERS a 5.0 ATS Value Rating (Average) this season.
They have quite the thing going on in Boone, NC!
511 2018 SEASON PREVIEW
Appalachian St has won 30 games over the past three seasons and have established themselves as an annual contender. Now to be fair, it will be challenging to maintain excellence with a new starting QB, but there is enough talent on the roster for us to feel pretty good about their prospects in 2018.
The million-dollar question is what about the point-spread prospects? HC Scott Satterfeld has essentially a .500 mark ATS during his tenure including a 13-13 record vs Vegas over the past two years. They will have to do most of the heavy lifting for bettors this season as they fgure to be favored in the vast majority of their games. It’s probably best to pick your spots with these guys.
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COASTAL CAROLINA
2017 Recap Record – 3-9 ATS – 5-6-1
Well that wasn’t so bad, was it?
Coastal Carolina did about as well as you could reasonably expect in their frst season in the FBS ranks, particularly when you consider that their head coach Joe Moglia had to unexpectedly skip the campaign for medical reasons. The Chanticleers beat a decent Massachusetts team in their season opener and almost SHOCKED the WORLD when visiting Arkansas (lost 39-38). They fnished strong with a pair of wins (Idaho, Georgia Southern) and look to keep things rolling in 2018.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
East Division – #5
Sun Belt – #9
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
513 2018 SEASON PREVIEW
The offense was decent last season considering the step up in competition (#7 Sun Belt in total offense) and they did manage to do some damage against the weaker foes on their docket. This season might be a bit of a challenge as they need to replace their starting QB and #1 RB (Osharmar Abercrombie – 724, 7 TD LY). Our COASTAL CAROLINA INSIDERS tell us that the competition for the starting QB job is wide open heading into camp, but the depth at RB is a pleasant surprise. We shall see. The OL has decent size and returns four starters. The WR group brings back #1 WR Malcolm Williams who was a 2nd Team Sun Belt selection last season (43-793, 18.4, 7 TD).
We project the Chanticleers to take a small step forward in production in 2018 (23.7 PPG LY).
DEFENSE
Coastal Carolina was defnitely challenged in their frst FBS season but did not embarrass themselves. They fnished #8 in the conference in total defense and were decent against the run (170 YPG). They will need to fnd a way to get more PENETRATION (15 sacks – last in Sun Belt) and do a better job vs the pass (63.3% completions allowed). We are a bit skeptical of any meaningful improvement this year as they only bring back 5 starters to the stop unit and have to deal with losses in the front four. It’s unclear if there are any stars waiting to emerge on defense but time will tell.
The Chanticleers were 10th in the conference (out of 12 teams; this year they are down to 10 teams) in scoring defense allowing 34 PPG. We think they can do a bit better but would be shocked if the number fell below 30 PPG.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Things look pretty good from where we are sitting. Evan Robon handles the punting and feld goal duties, and while he was a bit scattershot on 3-pointers (12/19) he did a fne job punting (43.2 avg, 39.6 net, 0 blocked). The return units were decent last year and just need to fnd a replacement for PR Chris Jones.
Schedule Analysis
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Overall – It’s not too bad. The opener at South Carolina will likely be messy, but there are a handful of winnable games. They also fnish with three consecutive home games before the season fnale at South Alabama.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Massachusetts (October 20). Revenge is a dish best served cold. The Minutemen lost to the Chanticleers last year and would love to return the favor. This is also a sandwich spot for Coastal Carolina (ULM / Georgia St).
Season Win Total
Over – 4 +105
Under – 4 -135
MEGALOCKS says:
Slight lean to the under as it’s hard to see them getting to fve wins.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Forget the blue SMURF TURF in Boise. Welcome to the SURF TURF ! All teal, all day, baby.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 3.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the CHANTICLEERS a 3.5 ATS Value Rating (Below Average) this season.
It’s year two. Coastal Carolina is now offcially eligible to bag a bowl invite but it feels as though they may be a season away from achieving that goal. If they can fnd someone reliable at QB the offense has the potential to be
515 2018 SEASON PREVIEW better than we think. The primary worry is a defense that needs to show us that it is developing an identity.
Coastal Carolina was essentially a .500 team vs Vegas last year. Our best guess is a struggle most weeks but a couple of surprise outright wins as TD+ underdogs. Be careful, but don’t be afraid to pounce if the spot looks good.
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GEORGIA SOUTHERN
Recap Record – 2-10 ATS – 3-7-2
The Eagles started out losing nine consecutive games and sputtered to a two-win season. Tyson Summers was relieved of his duties after the DEBACLE at Massachusetts (lost 55-20) and Chad Lunsford took over as HC. Lunsford is now offcially in charge and will try and get this team turned around. It wasn’t too long ago that they were a handful for pretty much everyone.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
East Division – Tied #3
Sun Belt – Tied #4
Georgia Southern Eagles 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
It’s time for another MEGALOCKS PRO TIP. If you are winning lots of games and ripping teams to pieces with your rushing attack, don’t change.
517 2018 SEASON PREVIEW
The Eagles are going to start cranking up the rushing attack and that is great news as far as we are concerned. They fnished off last season by rushing for 350+ yards in two of their fnal three contests, and new OC Bob DeBesse should be able to work some magic, as most of his Lobos’ offenses were comically ruthless on the ground. Sophomore QB Shai Werts will be a nice ft as he threw for 7 TDs and rushed for over 700 yards in split duty last year. Leading rusher Wesley Fields is back (811, 5 TD LY) and leads a promising groups of backs. We have a good feeling about an offensive line that has size and experience (4/5 returning starters). They should be able to hit the odd successful pass as they return their top-5 receivers from last season’s squad.
The offense was a grease fre last season (332 YPG). We would not be surprised to see them get close to the 400 YPG mark, while certainly scoring a lot more than 20.8 PPG.
DEFENSE
The Eagles regressed to allowing 32 PPG after allowing less than 27 PPG on an annual basis for a LONG time. They return nine starters to the mix this year and the experience and improved ground attack should lead to signifcant improvement. The DL actually looks pretty spicy with a pair of good ends in 2nd Team Sun Belt honoree Logan Hunt (11 TFL LY) and Raymond Johnson (6.5 TFL, 7 QBH LY). They return a pair of starters in the LB unit and boast an excellent CB in Monquavion Brinson (12 PBU, 5 INT LY). We can see the run defense taking a step forward (#10 Sun Belt LY) and improving the sack total (22 LY – T7 Sun Belt).
The defense will be a lot better and certainly good enough to keep them competitive in most games.
SPECIAL TEAMS
The Eagles bring back their fne PK Tyler Bass (2nd Team Sun Belt) who connected on 15/19 FG attempts last season including 9/11 from 40+ yards (!). Bass will likely handle the punting duties as well. The return units were average last year, and will likely remain that way.
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Schedule Analysis
Overall – It’s pretty challenging. They have a BODY BAG GAME with Clemson on September 15th and also face Appalachian St, Troy and Arkansas St.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Georgia St (November 24th). The Eagles fnish up with fve road tests in their fnal seven regular season games. This is the end of that stretch. If they are eliminated from bowl contention it might be an extra tough spot to back these guys. We don’t think that will be the case, just saying, not saying.
Season Win Total
Over 5.5 -160
Under 5.5 +130
MEGALOCKS says:
Neutral stance for now. We can easily see this team making a bowl appearance but the -160 price has us hitting the pause button.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Football was suspended in 1941 at the outset of World War II and restarted in 1981.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 9.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the EAGLES a 9.5 ATS Value Rating (Excellent) this season.
Stars are aligned for a much improved season. The offense should be a lot better returning to its roots, and the defense is also poised to perform much
519 2018 SEASON PREVIEW better than last year. The schedule is a bit nasty so the win-loss record may not fully refect their positive strides.
In 2014 and 2015, the Eagles had a win-loss record of 18-7 and an impressive mark of 16-9 vs the point spread (64%). It seems to us that getting back to playing Georgia Southern football could be proftable. They get on the watch list to start the season.
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GEORGIA ST
2017 Recap Record – 7-5 ATS – 5-6-1
BOOM goes the dynamite.
Congrats to the Panthers who fnished off the campaign with their frst bowl win in school history, a well-deserved 27-17 victory over Western Kentucky in the Cure Bowl. The scrappy Panthers did not blow you away with anything in particular, and in fact, only scored 20.3 PPG whilst allowing 24.8 PPG. Georgia St gets credit for starting the season in DEBACLE-LIKE fashion losing to something called Tennessee St, and following that up with a 56-0 beating at the hands of Penn St. They kept at it and won fve Sun Belt tilts.
Can they keep the momentum going in 2018?
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
East Division – Tied #3
Sun Belt – Tied #4
Georgia St Panthers 2018 Outlook
521 2018 SEASON PREVIEW
OFFENSE
The Panthers are going to miss the reliability of Conner Manning at QB who only threw 7 INTs last year in over 400 attempts. The battle for the starting QB gig will be decided in fall camp, and the leader in the clubhouse is probably junior signal-caller Aaron Winchester (9 attempts LY, 11 games played career). It remains to be seen who will emerge in the competition and we will be following things closely over the summer. Whomever starts at QB will have the best (in our estimation) WR in the conference to throw to in Penny Hart (1st Team Sun Belt; 1,121, 8 TD LY). They also add in a couple of targets via transfer from South Carolina and Florida.
We have concern about the rushing attack. The Panthers lose their top two RBs from last year’s squad and the leading returning rusher (Taz Bateman) tallied just 176 yards in 2017. Maybe freshman Destin Coates can provide a spark? In any event, last year Georgia St exceeded 100 rushing YPG for the frst time since 2013 (!) (117), and their prospects for a successful season depend on fnding some kind of run game. The OL returns 4/5 starters and should provide a solid foundation.
DEFENSE
Georgia St did a good job on defense last year fnishing #4 in the conference in total defense and #3 vs the run. They return just fve starters to the stop unit but do have a good looking front seven. The DL has size and experience and the LB unit features two of the top four tacklers from last season (Michael Shaw, Chase Middleton). We worry most about a secondary that only has one returning starter and allowed 63% completions in 2017. If the Panthers can increase the sack total and pressure on the opposing QB just a bit (24 LY) it will go a long way to helping out the pass defense.
We expect the defense to take a small step back this year (24.8 PPG LY).
SPECIAL TEAMS
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Hmm. Things look a bit sketchy. PK Brandon Wright connected on just 12/23 FG attempts last season and the return units lose their only productive player (KR Glenn Smith, TD) from last season. Oh, and they were #120 in net punting. Danger! Danger!
Schedule Analysis
Overall – This is not going to be a lot of fun. The non-conference slate is pretty harsh with dates against Memphis, NC State and Western Michigan. They have to face Arkansas St, Troy and Appalachian St ALL on the road. The Panthers were really good away from home in 2017 (5-1) so maybe all is not lost?
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Nothing in particular to note. What really stands out is the overall MURDERERS’ ROW of opponents from start to fnish.
Season Win Total
Over 4.5 -120
Under 4.5 -110
MEGALOCKS says:
This is a sharp line. “5” would have been a nice number to grab for an under play. We suppose there is the slightest of leans right now to the under 4.5.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
The Panthers moved to “Georgia State Stadium” last season which used to be TURNER FIELD, home of the Atlanta Braves.
Georgia St has not had a positive turnover margin in any year since joining the Sun Belt in 2013 (-39 total).
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MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 2.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the PANTHERS a 2.0 ATS Value Rating (Poor) this season.
It’s going to be a tough road ahead for the Panthers this season. The program is defnitely moving in the right direction but there is too much uncertainty on offense for us to forecast any improvement. Of course, there is upside if someone promising at QB emerges during fall camp, but we will have to wait and see. The defense should be ok but they are not teeming with proven stars.
Georgia St allowed 4.5 more points per game than they scored last season. It’s going to be tough to get back to a bowl game with their lost production and nasty schedule. We recommend staying clear when building your weekly betting cards unless they show signs of life in September.
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TROY
Recap Record – 11-2 ATS – 7-6
Hey, now.
That was an impressive season. They lost the opener at Boise St (like pretty much anybody would, AMIRITE?) and had a misstep vs South Alabama the week after beating LSU on the road. Other than that? All wins, baby. They snagged a share of the Sun Belt title and put the icing on the cake with a 50-30 beating of North Texas in the New Orleans Bowl.
The Trojans are now 21-5 (!) over the past two years. Let’s try and determine what’s in store for the program in 2018.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
East Division – #1
Sun Belt – #2
Troy Trojans 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
525 2018 SEASON PREVIEW
Troy has a similar issue to deal with as that of their conference rival in Boone, NC. They must replace a rock solid four-year starting QB. Brandon Silvers ended his career as the school’s 2nd all-time leading passer (10,684) and his leadership and production will be sorely missed. The role of starting QB will be decided over the coming weeks and will fall to one of a couple of youngsters whom each have limited experience (Sawyer Smith, Kaleb Barker). We will be monitoring the situation closely over the summer. It’s hard to know what to expect. The good news is that there will be plenty of fne options in the passing game when the Trojans choose to MATRICULATE in the passing game. Their top-2 WRs from last year’s squad are back including 2nd Team Sun Belt honoree Deondre Douglas (48-628, 13.1, 4 TD LY) and they get a talent infusion via transfer from Louisville (Traveon Samuel).
Another big-time hurdle to overcome is the departure of their top-2 RBs from last year’s team including Jordan Chunn who retired as the program’s #2 all-time leading rusher (3,081). Chunn also hauled in 28 receptions and scored 10 TDs on the ground in 2017. #3 RB Jamarius Henderson averaged 7.9 yards a pop last season but there is a big question mark here in terms of replacing a ton of rushing production. The good news is that the offensive line did a decent job last year (4.7 YPC, only 15 sacks allowed) and returns four starters. They will however miss their star LT Steven Rowzee (1st Team Sun Belt selection LY).
Troy has averaged over 30 PPG in each of the past two seasons (31.5, 33.7). It’s going to be hard to get to that marker unless the QB play exceeds expectations.
DEFENSE
Amaze your PSYCHO EX-GIRLFRIEND with this knowledge bomb. Troy has improved in YPG allowed in each of the past four seasons, from 483 yards per contest in 2013, down to 337 (!) yards per game in 2017. The Trojans were #7 in the FBS in run defense last season and tallied 42 sacks (T8 FBS). This season the Trojans only have fve returning starters to the stop unit but WHOA are they talented. The DL is deep and features excellent NG Trevon Sanders 6-0, 310, 2nd Team Sun Belt LY) and the LB corps has an embarrassment of riches. Tron Folsom led the team in tackles last season (9 TFL, 2nd Team Sun Belt) and Hunter Reese was named to the 1st Team Sun Belt after bagging 14 TFL and 4
526 MEGALOCKS
QBH. Want more? The CB tandem of Blace Brown (1st Team Sun Belt, 5 INT LY) and sophomore Marcus Jones is top notch.
This is the best defense in the conference.
SPECIAL TEAMS
This unit looks good. There is continuity at P and PK with a steady Tyler Sumpter handling the dual duties. CB Marcus Jones was a TD waiting to happen last season and took three KOs the distance (in addition to his INT return TD).
Schedule Analysis
Overall – We like it. They get Boise at home in week one (probably a loss) and then travel to Nebraska in week 3 (probably a loss, but who knows?). The conference docket is very manageable and we fnd it hard to see them playing their way out of a winner-takes-the-East road game with Appalachian St to end the regular season.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Nothing too spooky.
Season Win Total
Over 7.5 -135
Under 7.5 +105
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean to the over as we go to press. It’s hard to have a truly strong conviction without knowing what they have at QB. We do know that their defense will be really good and HC Neal Brown is a rising star.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
527 2018 SEASON PREVIEW
Who can forget the 1948 PAPER BOWL when Troy was shutout by Jacksonville St 19-0?
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 6.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the TROJANS a 6.0 ATS Value Rating (Above Average) this season.
This should be interesting. The defense is set, but can the offense rise to the occasion despite all the lost production at key positions? These are the Days Of Our Lives.
Last season we gave Troy a very high ATS Value Rating (8.0), and while they certainly had a fne campaign, they were just a game over .500 vs the point spread. The ATS Value Rating is meant to be a directional indicator (‘On’ or ‘Off” Watch List to start the season, anticipated value in betting markets, etc.) This year we have a more conservative outlook but you CANNOT deny the record of Neal Brown vs Vegas (22-16, 58%) and his ability (so far) to get his team to exceed market expectations. We also get their defense in our back pocket. Respect.
528 MEGALOCKS
SUN BELT CONFERENCE
WEST DIVISION
529 2018 SEASON PREVIEW
ARKANSAS ST
2017 Recap Record – 7-5 ATS – 6-6
The Red Wolves looked to be on their way to another Sun Belt title when the wheels fell off at South Alabama. Six turnovers will do that to you. They were still alive to bag a share of the conference crown in their regular season fnale but somehow lost to Troy while enjoying a 606-293 yard edge. They pulled another “Arkansas St” in the Camellia Bowl and lost an entertaining match-up with MTSU (462-352 yard edge).
This program is one of the more consistent college football programs out there. And they have really spanked their conference opponents over the past three seasons (21-3). Let’s see how they look heading into 2018.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
West Division – #1
Sun Belt – #1
Arkansas St Red Wolves 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
530 MEGALOCKS
Hey, now.
Arkansas St has a beast at QB in Justice Hansen who was named Sun Belt OPOY in 2017. Hansen ripped teams apart with almost 4,000 yards passing and 37 TD tosses while rushing for over 400 (!) yards and another seven scores. The WR corps still looks talented and has great size. #1 man Justin McInnis is back this year (800, 16.3, 4 TD) and the Red Wolves add three transfers that promise to give Hansen all kinds of options. What gives us pause for concern? Arkansas St allowed 33 sacks last year (#10 Sun Belt) and the willingness of Mr Hansen to throw picks (16 LY) can make even the best of us lose our temper. The offensive line brings back four starters to the mix including 1st Team SB honoree LT Lanard Bonner and should be able to kick it up a notch in 2018. They will be run blocking for a RB unit that brings back #1 rusher Warren Wand (715, 5.2, 6 TD LY).
This offense feels like an elite group that can put the hurt on pretty much anyone provided they do not self-destruct with mistakes.
DEFENSE
The Red Wolves played solid defense last year fnishing #33 in the FBS in rush defense and #40 in pass effciency D (#3 total defense in Sun Belt). They bagged 30+ sacks for the fourth consecutive campaign. Sadly, ace pass rusher Ja’Von Rolland-Jones departs (13 sacks LY), as does DL Caleb Caston (10 TFL LY) and leading tackler LB Kyle Wilson (2nd Team Sun Belt).
Their fne DC Joe Cauthen only has fve returning starters to work with but does have size and JC transfers to work with on the DL, as well as talent and experience in the LB and DB groups. 2nd Team Sun Belt member Justin Clifton had 4.5 TFL last season and 13 (!) PBU. We are a bit worried about the lost production in terms of PENETRATION but still believe this defense will be one of the best in the conference.
SPECIAL TEAMS
531 2018 SEASON PREVIEW
We really like the continuity at PK and P, and Sawyer Williams connected on 16/22 FG attempts last season (4/5 from 40+).
Schedule Analysis
Overall – Good news and bad news. They have an automatic loss (?) at ROLL TIDE and also need to travel to Tulsa. The promising part of the equation is that they appear to be in the weaker half of the Sun Belt Conference this season.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – UNLV (September 22). This game falls after road tests with the aforementioned ROLL TIDE and Golden Hurricane. It precedes conference play (Georgia Southern on deck) and we would be leery of laying too much lumber in this one.
Season Win Total
Over 8.5 -140
Under 8.5 +110
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean to the over as we approach press time. The juice is not ideal but the conference schedule could be a virtual cakewalk. It probably won’t be, but things set up nicely.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
Just a memory jog. The last three coaches at Arkansas St? Bryan Harsin (Boise St) (JUGGERNAUT), Gus Malzahn (Auburn) and Hugh Freeze (former Ole Miss HC, ya they beat ROLL TIDE). Put this in your pipe and smoke it. Blake Anderson will move on to a big-time job at some point.
532 MEGALOCKS
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 6.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the RED WOLVES a 6.0 ATS Value Rating (Above Average) this season.
Let’s be honest. The Red Wolves should be able to rip through the conference docket and do well enough to make the NEW conference title game. The offense will be devastating (at times) and the defense just needs to identify new pass rushers to emerge in order to be special. Will that happen? Hard to say.
Long-time MEGALOCKS PLATINUM DIAMOND CLUB members know we really like this program. The issue with backing them with a point spread wager is dealing with the ongoing brain farts that lead to penalties and turnovers. Having said that, they look stacked this year and HC Anderson is 28-23 ATS (54.9%) despite being a favorite in most games. We will be backing these guys
533 2018 SEASON PREVIEW
LOUISIANA
Recap Record – 5-7 ATS – 4-8
It looked like a LOCK.
The Cajuns needed a home win over the horrid Georgia Southern Eagles to bag a sixth win and bowl invite. What could possibly go wrong? 389 rushing yards later, the Eagles had a win and essentially knocked Louisiana out of bowl contention, given that their fnal game was a road test at Appalachian St (they lost 63-14).
Billy Napier takes over the head coaching duties this season and will try and right the ship. Let’s see how things look heading into the 2018 campaign.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
West Division – #3
Sun Belt – #7
Louisiana Rajin’ Cajuns 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
534 MEGALOCKS
The Cajuns haven’t averaged 30 PPG since the 2013 season (33.8). Last season’s primary starter at QB Jordan Davis left the program in the spring, but Louisiana does return a pair of men that got some experience in 2017. The likely starter is senior Andre Nunez but we will need to see how things develop during fall camp. There is a lot of returning production at the skill positions with #1 RB Trey Ragas (813, 9 TD LY) back for duty and he is a sophomore that brings PAIN to the equation (5-11, 227). The entire WR corps returns this year and it should be one of the best receiving units in the Sun Belt. The offensive line has allowed 30+ sacks in each of the past two years so improvement will be needed if they want to do serious damage MATRICULATING down the feld in the passing game.
DEFENSE
The Cajuns’ defense took a massive step backwards last year going from 25.3 PPG and 379 YPG in 2016 to a disastrous 40.0 and 493 combination last season. New DC Ron Roberts (SE Louisiana) has some work to do as only three starters return to the stop unit. The good news is that they have a couple of fne LBs in Joe Dillon (3rd Team Sun Belt LY) and Jacques Boudreaux. We still worry about a pass defense that yielded 65.2% (!) completions in 2017 and a lack of PENETRATION (20 sacks, #11 Sun Belt LY).
SPECIAL TEAMS
Yes, guy.
There are a lot of positives going on here including the return of solid PK Calvin Linden (10/14 FG LY, 3/5 from 40+ yards) and ace KR Raymond Calais (2 TD LY).
Schedule Analysis
Overall – Nasty. They have a BODY BAG GAME with Alabama and are also in trouble when they visit Mississippi St. Road tests vs Appalachian St and Troy are not going to be fun.
535 2018 SEASON PREVIEW
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Nothing specifc noted.
Season Win Total
Over 4.5 -110
Under 4.5 -120
MEGALOCKS says:
Neutral stance at the moment. If the line was 5.5 we might go UNDER for 89,000 Imaginary Twitter Units. 4.5 seems about right.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
HC Billy Napier has spent a lot of his coaching career learning from Dabo Swinney and Nick Saban. NICE.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 2.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the RAGIN’ CAJUNS a 2.5 ATS Value Rating (Poor) this season.
Billy Napier is probably going to need a bit of time to sort this all out. The QB situation is a bit uncertain and the defense was a hot mess last year. The conference also boasts some pretty good programs and the Cajuns’ are a clear notch down (or two) from the top. It seems reasonable to expect growing pains this year and we will not be in any hurry to back them vs the point spread.
536 MEGALOCKS
SOUTH ALABAMA
2017 Recap Record – 4-8 ATS – 6-6
The Jaguars had their worst win-loss record since the 2012 campaign when they posted a dismal record of 2-11. They can boast a couple of nice wins (Troy, Arkansas St) but have to be disappointed with being a complete non-factor in the Sun Belt race. New HC Steve Campbell comes on board and will try and change the fortunes of the program. Let’s see what he has to work with in 2018.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
West Division – #4
Sun Belt – #8
South Alabama Jaguars 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
It all starts here. One way or another the QB play has to improve. The Jaguars’ signal callers had a 15-14 TD-INT ratio last season (T9 passing effciency Sun Belt) and that will not get it done. Senior Cole Garvin returns this year but redshirt freshman Cephus Johnson is a legitimate contender for the starting gig.
537 2018 SEASON PREVIEW
The running game was worse than the QB play last season (#111 rush offense FBS, just 10 rushing TD) and the leading returning rusher is Tra Minter who had a paltry 341 yards on the ground in 2017. The offensive line returns just one starter and they will be without LT Noah Fisher who left unexpectedly in the spring.
DEFENSE
There is defnitely some promise on this side of the ball. The Jags did a fne job vs the run last season yielding just 152 YPG on the ground. The DL returns most of the starters from last season and has nice size. The secondary features 3/4 returning starters including senior CB Darian Mills (13 PBU LY) and last year’s second leading tackler S Nigel Lawrence. The LB group gets an infusion of talent via transfers. Our overall impression is layered with a bit of skepticism in light of the fact that the Jags were just 9th in the conference in total defense last season despite being pretty stout vs the run and very good in the red zone (#2 Sun Belt).
SPECIAL TEAMS
Yes, guy.
It’s not quite the Utah Utes BUT the Jags have an embarrassment of riches in the kicking game. PK Gavin Patterson connected on 16/19 FG attempts last year and P Corliss Waitman was a 1st Team Sun Belt honoree (41.7 net). All they need is a bit of spice in the return game to really dominate on special teams.
Schedule Analysis
Overall – RUH ROH. The Jags might be in trouble with non-conference trips to Oklahoma St and Memphis before dealing with visits to Appalachian St and Arkansas St in FUN BELT action.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Georgia Southern (October 6). This will be South Alabama’s fourth road game in fve weeks and they travel to face a potential upstart Georgia Southern squad after (probably) getting pasted by Appalachian St.
538 MEGALOCKS
Season Win Total
Over 4 -160
Under 4 +130
MEGALOCKS says:
Neutral stance for now. The line seems perfect with the “4” being juiced to the over. It’s hard to see them getting to fve wins and a three-win season would be pretty smelly given that they play Texas St and something called Alabama St.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
South Alabama is still looking for their frst bowl victory in school history. They are 0-2 with losses coming in 2014 (Bowling Green) and 2016 (Air Force).
The only team to beat Troy AND Arkansas St last year? It was YOUR South Alabama Jaguars. Amaze your AMBULANCE-CHASING LAWYER with that nugget.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 1.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the JAGUARS a 1.5 ATS Value Rating (Poor) this season.
It’s feels like a long road ahead this season. The offense worries us a lot in a conference in which you need to score points. The new coaching staff has a decent defense to work with but there are just too many unknowns to give a positive endorsement.
The Jags’ last winning campaign vs the point spread was back in 2013 and we fnd it hard to believe that 2018 is the year of magical money-making. On the avoid list to start the season.
539 2018 SEASON PREVIEW
540 MEGALOCKS
TEXAS ST
2017 Recap Record – 2-10 ATS – 5-7
Yikes.
It started out innocent enough with a win over Houston Baptist, but then reality kicked in and the Bobcats managed only one victory the rest of the way (Coastal Carolina). That makes back-to-back two-win seasons for Texas St and they have really struggled since the seven-win campaign in 2014. Everett Withers enters his third season as HC and hopes to see improvement on the feld in 2018.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
West Division – #5
Sun Belt – #10
Texas St Bobcats 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
541 2018 SEASON PREVIEW
Texas St has averaged less than 20 PPG in each of the past two seasons, and last year they fnished #101 in rushing offense and #82 in passing offense. They turned the ball over too much (24) and yielded a bunch of sacks (36).
There is a lot of room for improvement and they will have to do it with a new starting QB. Last year’s backup Willie Lee Jones saw limited action and it remains to be seen what kind of production he will be able to achieve. Jones will have to survive without #1 WR Elijah King (52-750, 14.4, 3 TD LY) and the receiving group heading into the season is unproven. The running game has promise as the RB corps returns intact and the Bobcats have nice depth at the position. The offensive line is experienced (4/5 starters) and should allow for Texas St to do more damage on the ground.
It’s hard to be too optimistic based on the uncertainty at QB and the apparent lack of explosiveness at WR.
DEFENSE
The Bobcats made strides last season on defense that did not show up in the win- loss column. In particular, they cut the rushing yards allowed from 222 YPG down to 142 (!) which ranked a respectable 5th in the Sun Belt. They also cut the PPG allowed by over a TD and achieved increased PENETRATION (22 sacks LY, just 9 in 2016). This season they bring back 7 starters including leading tackler LB Bryan London and 3rd Team Sun Belt honoree LB Frankie Griffn (11.5 TFL LY). Things actually look pretty good on this side of the ball. It should be noted that our TEXAS ST INSIDERS determined that the Bobcats had ZERO interceptions last season.
We project another step forward for the defense and think they can cut the PPG below 30 PPG (33.6 LY).
SPECIAL TEAMS
This unit was pretty dismal last year and it’s unclear if they will make meaningful strides. They look to be adequate in the feld goal department but
542 MEGALOCKS they need to break in a new punter (and they punt a LOT) and fnd more spice in the return units (#125 KO returns, #68 PR LY).
Schedule Analysis
Overall – The front half of the schedule looks fne but they better get some wins before the nasty part of the docket kicks in. They fnish with a TRILOGY OF DOOM (Appalachian St, at Troy, Arkansas St).
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – Nothing noted.
Season Win Total
Over 3.5 +115
Under 3.5 -145
MEGALOCKS says:
Lean to the over. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that these guys have 3-4 wins at the midway point of the year. Plus money (+115) doesn’t seem like a horrible deal. Need to think on this one.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
The Bobcats have never made a bowl game but were SHAFTED in 2014 when they bagged seven wins.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 3.5
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the BOBCATS a 3.5 ATS Value Rating (Below Average) this season.
543 2018 SEASON PREVIEW
It appears that the defense is getting itself sorted out, but there is still that annoying problem of needing to score points. The good news is that they can be in decent shape if the QB play exceeds expectations. We just have a hard time seeing that happen but who knows? Hopefully they can turn the corner this year and win a conference game or two. HC Withers has just one Sun Belt victory to his credit.
Texas St has a 10-14 mark vs the point spread (42%) over Withers’ tenure. We recommend using caution this season unless the offense shows signs of life.
544 MEGALOCKS
ULM
2017 Recap Record – 4-8 ATS – 5-6-1
The Warhawks served notice that they were going to be a tough out in conference play when they won their frst three Sun Belt games whilst averaging over 50 points per contest. They dropped their next three conference tilts (none by more than 10 points) and sputtered down the stretch. ULM did manage to beat a tough Appalachian St squad, but the combination of a tough schedule and shoddy defense was too much to overcome.
Hope is on the horizon. Let’s dig in.
2018 MEGALOCKS Opening Power Rating
West Division – #2
Sun Belt – Tied #4
ULM Warhawks 2018 Outlook
OFFENSE
Here we go!
The Warhawks had no issues putting up points last season as they bagged FITTTTY on four occasions (56,51,52,50) while displaying good balance
545 2018 SEASON PREVIEW between the run and the pass. QB Caleb Evans had a sneaky good campaign that went under the radar (17 TD passes, 13 rushing TDs). Evans is back this year along with his top two targets WR Marcus Green (812, 15.0, 5 TD LY) and WR RJ Turner (693, 18.2, 6 TD). Leading rusher Derrick Gore is back for his senior season and will run behind a yuuuuge and experienced (4/5 returning starters) offensive line. The big boys did a fne job in pass protection last year ranking #3 in sacks allowed per game in the Sun Belt.
ULM scored over 30 PPG (33.9) last year for the frst time since 2012 (33.8). We think they will put up 35+ in 2018.
DEFENSE
RUH ROH.
The ULM defense was ripped apart last year yielding 41 PPG (#125 FBS) and 532 YPG (#128). They gave up real estate at a seemingly impossible rate allowing 7.3 (!) yards per play to their opponents. The Warhawks return eight starters to the mix and hope to deliver improvement. There is a lot of returning production with nine of the top eleven tacklers from last season’s stop unit back for duty. They will however be without 2017 leading tackler S Roland Jenkins.
There needs to be signifcant improvement on this side of the ball if the Warhawks plan on competing in the Sun Belt West and making a trip to a bowl game. The run defense has to show up (200+ YPG rushing allowed in each of last three seasons) and it would helpful to get more PENETRATION (21 sacks LY, T9 Sun Belt).
SPECIAL TEAMS
It’s time for a MEGALOCKS PRO TIP. Do NOT kick the ball to Marcus Green.
Green returned four (!) kickoffs for TDs last season and averaged 32+ yards a pop. They need to replace their punter but bring back solid PK Craig Ford (10/13 FG LY). Seems like ULM is in good shape.
546 MEGALOCKS
Schedule Analysis
Overall – A bit nastier than you would think. We understand that it is a SUN BELT schedule, but they play seven road games including trips to Texas A&M and Ole Miss. The back-half of the docket looks much more favorable.
Potential ATS Trouble Spot – at Coastal Carolina (October 13). This will be their ffth road game in six weeks. Last year these two teams played a crazy one (45- 43 until the very last milliseconds when ULM tacked on a TD).
Season Win Total
Over 5.5 -120
Under 5.5 -110
MEGALOCKS says:
Strong lean to the over. There are a few nasty games in there but overall it seems like they have a legit shot at getting six wins and a bowl invitation.
MEGAmazing Tidbits
The Warhawks have only been to one bowl game in school history. They lost 45- 14 to the Ohio Bobcats in the 2012 Independence Bowl.
MEGALOCKS ATS Value Rating (10) 7.0
MEGALOCKS says:
Overall, we give the WARHAWKS a 7.0 ATS Value Rating (Good) this season.
Buckle up. And if you are a scoreboard operator, make sure you do your pregame stretching and try and avoid spraining fngers and thumbs, as you
547 2018 SEASON PREVIEW will be busy. The offense is going to score on just about everyone but the defense has to do something to help the cause.
The Warhawks last winning season ATS was back in 2012 when they went 8-5 vs Vegas. That was the year MEGALOCKS PREMIUM ELITE UNDERDOG CLUB members enjoyed a week one road upset of the Arkansas Razorbacks as 30 point dogs. We feel like this team will be a tough out once again in conference play but that defense gives us sleepless nights.
Get to a bowl game, men!
548 MEGALOCKS
Index AMIRITE...... 27, 79, 89, 120, 200, 323, 399, 411, 472, 500, 525
BABE RUTH...... 174
BACK-to-BACK JACKS...... 29, 290
BACKDOOR...... 395, 482
BODY BAG GAME...... 28, 57, 264, 332, 348, 519, 535
Clubber Lang...... 104
COLLISION COURSE WITH DESTINY...... 139
DAILY DOUBLE...... 27, 315
Days Of Our Lives...... 374, 528
DEBACLE...... 29, 64, 109, 133, 156, 174, 283, 306, 327, 393, 410, 454, 485, 488, 517, 521
Deep dive...... 351, 392, 395
DEGENERATE NATION...... 100, 108, 268, 379, 383, 420, 429
DUMPSTER FIRE...... 296, 427
EX-GIRLFRIEND...... 111, 136, 189, 248, 448, 526
FADE GUY...... 137, 162, 449
FADE THE PUBLIC GUY...... 75
FIGHTING KIFFINS...... 40, 230, 254
FIRE UP CHIPS...... 330-332, 348
Frank “The Tank” Ricard...... 97
FREAKY FREAKY...... 91
Free square...... 45, 61, 216
GLASS HALF-EMPTY GUY...... 487
549 2018 SEASON PREVIEW
Grease fre...... 155, 224, 258, 302, 422, 518
GROUP OF DEATH...... 136, 144, 499
Hold My Beer...... 384
HOT GARBAGE...... 295
Hot take...... 19, 292, 315, 436, 482
HOTTIES...... 140, 302
HOUSE OF PAIN...... 94
INSIDERS...... 31, 90, 118, 127, 144, 147, 151, 160, 169, 180, 235, 240, 274, 279, 294, 298, 310, 327, 331, 370, 429, 431, 458, 490, 496, 504, 514, 542
INTERNS...... 115, 186, 224, 334, 435, 494
Johnny FOOTBALL...... 506
JUGGERNAUT...... 53, 78, 115, 119, 132, 187, 239, 303, 490, 505, 506, 532
LAME COMPANY BARBECUE...... 386
LASER LOCK...... 211, 309
LATE PHONE RELEASE...... 268, 376
LOCK...... 3, 68, 146, 148, 211, 291, 309, 376, 421, 463, 464, 502, 534
MACTION...... 303, 307, 311, 331, 332, 335, 338
MAX UNIT BOMB...... 68
MEGALOCKS...... 2-5, 18, 20, 22, 24, 26, 28, 30-32, 34, 36, 38, 40, 41, 43, 45, 47, 49-51, 53, 55, 57, 59, 61-63, 65, 68-72, 74-76, 78-80, 82-88, 90, 92, 94, 95, 97, 99, 101, 103, 105, 107-109, 111, 113, 115-117, 119- 121, 123, 124, 126, 128-130, 132-134, 136-138, 140, 142, 144-146, 148- 150, 152, 153, 155, 157-159, 161-163, 165, 167, 169-171, 173-175, 177- 179, 181, 182, 184, 186-189, 191, 193, 195, 197-199, 201, 203, 205-207, 209, 211, 213, 215, 217, 218, 220, 222, 224-226, 228, 230, 232-234, 236-238, 240, 242, 244, 246, 248, 251, 253, 254, 256, 258, 260-264, 266, 268, 269, 271, 273, 275, 278, 280, 282, 284-286, 288, 289, 291-295, 297,
550 MEGALOCKS
299, 302, 304, 305, 307, 309, 311, 313, 315, 317, 319-321, 323, 326, 328, 330, 332, 334, 336, 338, 340, 342, 344, 346, 348, 349, 351-353, 355, 357, 359, 361, 363, 365, 367, 369-371, 373, 376, 378, 380, 382-384, 386, 388, 390, 392, 394-396, 398, 399, 401, 403-405, 407, 409-413, 415- 417, 419, 421, 423, 426, 428, 430, 432-434, 436, 438, 440-442, 444, 446, 448, 449, 451, 453-455, 457-459, 461, 463, 465-467, 469, 471, 473-475, 477, 480, 482-484, 486-488, 490-492, 494-496, 498, 500, 502-504, 506, 507, 509, 511, 513, 515, 517, 519, 521, 523-525, 527, 528, 530, 532-534, 536, 537, 539, 541, 543, 545-548
MEGALOCKS FUTURES CLUB...... 199, 233
MEGALOCKS posse...... 136, 191, 352, 486, 515
MINERALS...... 129, 142, 171, 238, 317, 434
MORTAL LOCK...... 291
NICK FREAKING SABAN...... 344
Oak Island...... 112
PENETRATION...... 19, 31, 48, 64, 81, 89, 102, 106, 110, 151, 168, 180, 188, 196, 216, 219, 243, 252, 259, 267, 270, 283, 290, 310, 318, 327, 352, 356, 368, 397, 402, 410, 439, 447, 452, 460, 464, 468, 472, 485, 489, 501, 505, 514, 531, 535, 542, 546
Phil Steele...... 139, 168, 294, 356, 381, 493
PLATINUM DIAMOND CLUB...... 533
POLEAXED...... 117, 211
POOL BOY...... 196, 295
PRO TIP...... 49, 164, 486, 517, 546
QUADRUPED OF DOOM...... 70
REGRESSION GUY...... 182
REGRESSION TO THE MEAN GUY...... 29, 104, 210, 237, 336, 449, 491
ROLL TIDE...... 31, 72, 73, 76, 82, 108, 360, 376, 403, 453, 455, 458, 465, 469, 471, 473, 477, 480-483, 490, 492, 496, 498, 499, 502, 506, 532
551 2018 SEASON PREVIEW
Sandwich...... 74, 90, 103, 173, 189, 205, 209, 220, 353, 394, 419, 448, 461, 482, 490, 494, 502, 506, 515
SCANTILY-CLAD HOTTIES...... 302
SHARP ACTION...... 151, 227, 473
SMOKESHOW...... 74, 288, 344, 398
SMURF TURF...... 117, 284, 378, 515
SONIC TATER TOTS BOWL...... 500
Steam...... 23
STEEL CAGE MATCH...... 269
SUPAH HOT FIRE...... 92, 141, 220, 417, 421, 434
SURPRISE PACKAGE...... 79, 98, 106, 110, 114, 274, 412, 466, 498
Ted Striker...... 142
THREE BEER WORK LUNCH...... 357
TOO MANY BOWL GAMES GUY...... 59
TOUR DE FORCE...... 69, 408
TREMENDOUS MACHINE...... 38, 168, 202, 231, 405, 464
Tugg Speedman...... 191
UNCLE KARMA...... 471
WE ARE MARSHALL...... 86, 240, 248
What in the SAM HILL...... 26, 28, 282, 340
Whoa, Nellie...... 53, 79, 139, 178, 440, 464
WOODSHED...... 142, 421
Yo...... 27, 59, 86, 107, 130, 135, 137, 198, 255, 259, 271, 303, 319, 353, 394, 411, 434, 447, 457, 489, 497, 505
552