2018 CONFERENCE USA (in alpha order) CUSA is at tier two, meaning there are no individual team sheets and no game by game data or rush stat plays tabulated.

CSUA EAST

Charlotte Each year I “publish” my bottom five coach report. Brad Lambert made the list last year and proceeded to “lead” his team to one win! Blame the staff? Lambert cleaned house, firing both coordinators and firing and demoting other assistants. 18 starters return. Lose again and it will be clear where the next change will occur. AREAS TO WATCH: Charlotte loses just two WR’s, a center and one LB from the ’17 starting lineup. This will be a heavily veteran team. Their QB hit 47.7% last year. In 7-12 games the point O was 14 or less. I like the lead RB. The new was productive at Youngstown St. Charlotte intercepted just two passes in ’17! With ten returning starters this will change. They have 25 defensive sacks in their last 24 games. The run D was below average and the pass D was over 69%. They’ll improve, but to what extent. Glenn Spencer was decent as the defensive coordinator at Oklahoma St. This seems like a splash hire. All three kickers return but they combined to go 4-13 last year. ‘18 PREVIEW: Last year in this spot I said to post check their stats vs. Eastern Michigan. The stats were not pretty. Let’s hope they improve with this depth opening up vs. 4-7 Fordham. Games 2-4 are hosting App. St. and Old Dominion and at UMass. 2-1 should be expected with the new coordinators and the returning talent. Will this be 1-2? 5-3 is possible if they start 2-1 with home games vs. WKU and So. Miss not that difficult (So. Miss QB currently under suspension). On paper only a host of FIU (one point loss after leading by 15) looks like a possible November win. BOTTOM LINE: Maybe 5-7, thanks to solid schedule pacing, team depth, and positive coaching changes. I won’t go higher with Lambert as coach. Finish 4-8 and it’s time for a change. HANDICAPPING TIP: I would consider fading Charlotte vs. Old Dominion as a home favorite and at UMass as a road favorite if I get the proper early clues. I won’t be afraid to fade the 49ers in their tough November schedule if the season has been disappointing. I’ll re- consider if I see stat and win progress prior to that point.

Florida Atlantic FAU finished 3-9 in each of Charlie Partridge’s three seasons. The record over the past eight seasons was 28-67. Enter Lane Kiffin. All FAU did was go 11-3, winning ten in a row to close ’17. Here comes year #2! AREAS TO WATCH: The team remains deep. Ten starters return on D including 14 of their top 15 tacklers. They had 38 sacks a year ago. This could be quite a defense. Only five starters return offensively. The QB job will be won by someone without college experience. Handing off will be fun, as Devin Singletary returns off his 1,920-6.4 per carry performance. Three OL starters depart, but they were not drafted and two grad transfers were added. They did lose a fine offensive coordinator so I expect regression, especially in the pass game and in protecting a raw QB. The punter and kicker are new. ‘18 PREVIEW: Oklahoma and UCF join Air Force in making the non-conference schedule difficult. UCF will host FAU but with a new coach. Games 5-6 are at rested MTSU and home to improved Old Dominion. My early check points are QB play/turnovers and the kicking game. Marshall is a solid home team but FAU will be rested. Which new QB is playing better? Louisiana Tech is an excellent road team. FIU and could be tough at home but the Panthers lost a ton of defensive talent. North Texas has double revenge from ’17 and decent depth. Maybe that road game will test FAU. BOTTOM LINE: Las Vegas expected FAU to go 4-8 in ’17. I appreciated the easy $$$. I see nine teams on the schedule that could make bowl games so FAU can’t afford to have shoddy QB play or kicking. 9-3 is quite possible thanks to the league’s top defense and top RB. The early schedule will certainly be a test. HANDICAPPING TIP: As elite guitarist Nils Lofgren sings, “no mercy”. Under Lane Kiffin FAU never takes a knee late in games so scores can be lopsided. Keep that in mind when they play easier teams. If there is offensive and/or kicking slippage I’ll lean vs. the Owls at MTSU and home to Louisiana Tech.

Florida International Butch Davis was a huge upgrade over forever bottom five Ron Turner. FIU easily went over their posted seasonal win total (thanks), finishing 8-4 before losing their bowl game. FIU fans have to be excited, but there will be reasons for caution this September. AREAS TO WATCH: A grad transfer with little accuracy takes over for departed steady QB Alex McGough. There may be sneaky RB talent but that needs to be monitored. The OL is deep and has elite starting experience. That should help. Seven of their top nine tacklers depart, but the top two sackers return. Their average defensive coordinator will be hard-pressed to improve upon last year’s 4.8 run D (uncorrected for sacks) and 65+% pass D. One senior will start on defense and the secondary will be all new! Two very highly rated JUCO’s add DL depth. Watch defensive #’s closely all season long! The kicking game is solid. ‘18 PREVIEW: FIU moves from six to seven home games which helps when your team is younger (6-1 in home games last year). The schedule is tougher with , Old Dominion and Miami (Fla.) replacing UCF, Alcorn St. and Tulane. 2-1 seems like the ceiling early on hosting Indiana, at Old Dominion (FIU lost by seven as a host in ’17, Monarch’s more experienced now) and hosting UMass. Even at 1-2, a win hosting a good MTSU squad (lost 37-17 to them last year) could mean 4-3 prior to visiting subpar WKU. The goal is to go 2-1 in this road game (vs. WKU) and road games at UTSA (14-7 home win ’17) and Charlotte (Charlotte deeper in ‘18). They close with a highly interesting home game vs. Marshall. BOTTOM LINE: Butch Davis can outcoach many in this conference but there is no question that the defense will be weaker and QB play is a complete unknown! Somehow this gets to 6-6 and maybe 7-5, especially if the nd touted DL transfers change things for the better. Getting to a 2 straight bowl won’t be easy but can be done. HANDICAPPING TIP: A win over 2-9 Arkansas Pine-Bluff sets FIU up in a favorable revenge-bye situation vs. MTSU on 10/13. The scenario is enhanced if FIU is an underdog of 3+ points.

Marshall Marshall imploded in ’16, going 3-9. Last year they regrouped, posting a 7-5 record which became 8-5 after a bowl win. 17 starters return but a new QB must be found. FAU took the conference by storm last year but Marshall only lost by five at their place despite a -4 turnover ratio. Let’s see if the Herd can improve some more this season. AREAS TO WATCH: QB play is likely to regress with a grad transfer from Wagner the new guy. The rest of the offense has plenty of experience, with two decent RB’s, a Sunday prospect at WR and five returning OL starters. The defense posted outstanding #’s last year. The point D was about 19. The run D was near 3.5 per carry. The pass D was around 56%. Marshall returns a very experienced front seven but the secondary will feature one junior and three sophomores. Both coordinators are gone. I have a slight concern offensively but a huge concern defensively with coordinator Chuck Heater a major loss ( at Maryland). The return game looks solid but both kickers will be new. ’18 PREVIEW: South Carolina replaces Cincy on the schedule. Both Marshall and Miami Ohio return massive starting talent. Edge Miami because Marshall will have a new QB and the coordinators will be coaching their 1st game. On 9/22 they host NC St. The Wolfpack lost their entire DL to the NFL but returns a stud QB. Can Marshall make this one close (lost 37-20 at their place in ’17)? The Herd must guard against a letdown when they open CUSA play at WKU. Games 6-8 are all challenging. They host bowl regular MTSU, play at potentially improved Old Dominion and then play a rested FAU team who will be favored to repeat as CUSA champions. The obvious pre-checks are QB play, the pass D%, kicking, and new coaching impact. Marshall might be favored the rest of the way. They’ve played well at So. Miss (good series, Golden Eagles far less returning talent). They should beat visiting Charlotte and beat visiting UTSA in a revenge game (UTSA got the win with two seconds left). The finale at FIU looks like a tossup. The pre-check here will be FIU’s defensive stats after having to replace so many key players. BOTTOM LINE: I’ll call this 5-5 not counting late games at So. Miss and FIU. 17 returning starters usually leads to improvement, especially for bowl teams but I need to see what impact the absence of their defensive coordinator has. 7-5 or 6-6 seems about right. HANDICAPPING TIP: Marshall tips continue to deliver. My plan is to fade them at Miami, but consider backing them vs. NC St. if my pre-checks of both teams are on point. I’ll wait to see how the new staff is doing before making any other decisions although I hope to back them 11/17 vs. UTSA.

Middle Tennessee MTSU is 32-16 in conference play the past six years. The figure was only 4-4 last year but that was misleading. QB Brent Stockstill (coach’s son) missed over half the season and leading WR Richie James missed even more time. MTSU did enough to earn another bowl bid and then beat decent Arkansas St. in the Camellia Bowl. 17 starters return including now senior QB Stockstill. The CSUA East Division has plenty of good teams. AREAS TO WATCH: Both coordinators return and they are good. The run game should improve with several talented options. The rest of the offense is about equal to last year. Five of the top six tacklers and the top two sackers return. This is a loaded front seven. The secondary loses two starters from a unit that allowed nearly 63.5% through the air. Three other notes: 1st, I expect solid improvement in the turnover ratio which was -12 a year ago. That will make a huge difference. 2nd, MTSU has to replace a kicker who was 14-17, including an excellent 9-11 from 40+ yards. Finally, why did home attendance lag in ’17? 13,000+ “fans” attended the Marshall game. That was not much more than 42% of capacity. 11,000 fans attended the UTEP game. On closing day, with a bowl berth on the line for both teams, attendance was just over 10,000, less than 33% of capacity. Why? ’18 PREVIEW: Georgia has been added to the schedule. MTSU has lost three years in a row to Vandy. It seems like they can win one of these years. On 9/29 a rested MTSU team hosts FAU. FAU will have just played last year’s “group of five” participant, 12-0 UCF. That’s ideal, so a loss means they don’t belong in FAU’s company. It could also signal a letdown vs. usually home tough Marshall the following week. Unfortunately things get tougher when they visit a rested FIU team likely in an advantageous situation. The game at Old Dominion might be a tossup due to MTSU’s experience and general road game consistency. Games surrounding this one include Charlotte and WKU at home and at UTEP. Anything less than a 3-0 sweep would be disappointing. Closing games are at Kentucky (possible close game) and home to pesky UAB (two point road loss last year). BOTTOM LINE: The middle of the schedule is tricky but November is not. Let’s call this 5-3 not counting games at Vandy, at Old Dominion, at Kentucky and home to UAB. If they can stay healthy 7-5 should be a minimal goal considering this team is better than they were a year ago. Watch the kicking game closely. HANDICAPPING TIP: I’ll lean with MTSU at Vandy and home to FAU. The game at FIU could prove troublesome. With proper clues I could back the Blue Raiders when they visit Kentucky.

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Old Dominion Old Dominion (ODU) has blended nicely in CUSA. ODU surprised most everyone in ’16 by winning ten games. They expected to return to a bowl game last year but couldn’t overcome the loss of their fine QB. 16 or 17 starters return now, including their young and exciting QB. Life is hard inside the CUSA East but ODU won’t shy away from the challenge. AREAS TO WATCH: When QB Steven Williams took the field in September he was 17 years old! He finished the season at 56% but with just a 6 TD-11 interception ratio. He should get better (6’4”). ODU lost only two offensive starters but RB Ray Lowry (all-time leading rusher, 5.6 per carry) was one of them. An experienced OL will try to open run holes for the remaining guys. ODU will field a senior dominated DL with plenty of front seven experience. Defensive #’s have been mediocre playing at this level but should improve in ’18. They do have 65 sacks these last two seasons. The secondary will be the weak link and must be charted carefully! The other major area to check is the turnover ratio. It was -4 a year ago and may not improve with their QB still learning and very young. I’ve made many a mention in CUSA and in the MAC about sagging home attendance. ODU is quite the exception! They’ve sold out 60 straight games in their 20,000+ seat stadium. ‘18 PREVIEW: Assuming a win at Liberty and in November, home to VMI, ODU will have two tough non-conference games. They were shutout by Virginia Tech a year ago. The Hokies have no scheduling issues but ODU should put up more of a fight at home. East Carolina is at home but plays defense optional football. Maybe this will be close. Both teams will have played Virginia Tech so a comparison of results is in order. Three of four road games on ODU’s conference schedule are vs. weaker teams. The goal has to be at least 2-1 at Charlotte, WKU and Rice. I’ll expect a win hosting FIU (ODU better depth, FIU new QB and lost at home in ’17) but the other three home games are all very challenging. They host Marshall (easy win as host ’16, easy loss on the road ’17), MTSU (played poorly at their site last year when both were 5- 6 and looking for bowl eligibility) and North Texas (45-38 loss at their site in ’17). All three went to bowl games a year ago. BOTTOM LINE: Bobby Wilder has done a fine job at this school. The check points are crystal clear. QB development and secondary play will determine how good this team can be. If the run D does not improve despite massive depth and experience up front that would set them back. I see six tossup CUSA games. Splitting those games produces 5-3 and at least 7-5 overall, good enough for their 2nd ever bowl bid. I think even more is possible so a bowl bid has to be expected. Readers need to watch September performance carefully and be prepared to make necessary adjustments! HANDICAPPING TIP: I like the home dog spot 9/22 vs. Virginia Tech if satisfied with how the season has played out thus far. The lean is + as a dog 10/20 at WKU (check WKU’s ’18 home performance out thus far). The lean is MTSU as a road dog 10/27 but should ODU win that game it would trigger at least a partial situational advantage 11/10 hosting North Texas.

Western Kentucky Western Kentucky (WKU) had been the dominate team in CUSA in ’15 and ’16. The one conference loss in their last 18 games was by three points to Louisiana Tech. When teams at this level get hot, coaches get poached. Mike Sanford (JR) replaced . As noted here a year ago, that decision scared me. For a variety of reasons (coaching staff, just nine returning starters, complete OL rebuild, downgrade in defensive talent, loss of elite special team coach, etc.) I made the decision to make this team my 2nd highest under play behind Baylor. I felt the posted total of 9.5 wins was too high. Incredibly, a prominent Las Vegas Sports Book moved the number to 10 wins prior to the season. Needing to go 11-1 to lose the play, WKU became my #1 play. I didn’t expect 6-6, but that’s what transpired. Read on to see how the far the fall was in ’17 and what can be expected for ’18. AREAS TO WATCH: QB Mike White put up video game #’s in ’16. He was the reason that I felt 8-4 was possible. The new staff did him no favors. After averaging over 44 points a game for three straight seasons the average plummeted to 25! The 4.9 run O average became the nation’s worst at 2.0, at a paltry 61 yards per game! Sacks allowed rose from 22 all the way up to 48! Mike White departs (rightfully drafted by the NFL) along with seven other offensive starters! Ouch! Losing respected defensive coordinator Nick Holt also took its toll on the stat sheet. The point D was about the same but the run D went from 3.0 allowed to 4.4 and defensive sacks went from 34 to 12 (10 in the regular season). WKU loses its top tackler but returns its next six leading tacklers. I think the secondary is better off as compared with the rest of the units. In ’16 elite coach ran the special team unit. They finished #1 in Phil Steele’s rankings. There was a big drop-off in ’17. ‘18 PREVIEW: Unfortunately the non-conference schedule is even tougher now. Wisconsin and Louisville essentially replace Vandy and Illinois. Maine went 4-6 last year. That should be a week two win. I’ll expect a run game vs. the Black Bears, while also checking QB play and the run defense. WKU beat Ball St. 33-21 last year. The Cardinals aren’t very good but host WKU this year and have 16 returning starters. I expect Marshall to be in letdown mode as they visit WKU. The Hilltoppers only lost by seven at their place last year. Please tell me you can win two of three at least from these teams? Charlotte has coaching issues. Maybe they steal a win at their place. Yes, WKU lost their bowl game a year ago but that’s better than not going at all. They were 4-2 at home in ’17, admittedly playing five of six teams that didn’t sniff the bowl season! Still, Old Dominion and FIU home games need to result in at least one win as those teams were not among CUSA’s top tier last year. Only one November game is winnable, that being WKU’s host of 0-12 UTEP. BOTTOM LINE: WKU was actually lucky to achieve 6-6. They beat lowly UTEP at home 15-14 only because the Miners missed a trio of field goals. They won at th Old Dominion by four, rallying for a pair of 4 quarter TD’s. MTSU kicked a game-tying 18 yard field goal instead of going for the win from the one yard line and WKU won in double overtime. It’s year #2 for the staff but year #1 was so unimpressive that I can’t see them returning to a bowl game. 4-8 is my prediction. st HANDICAPPING TIP: Last year’s fade festival was quite successful. All my looks will remain fade 1 again in ’18.

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CSUA WEST

UAB Welcome back! How does a team who dropped football for two full seasons win eight games? The Blazers had virtually an entire new team yet managed to pull five outright upsets. Their worst loss was in the bowl game vs. Ohio U, reminding Coach Bill Clark that work still needs to be done. With 16 returning starters further improvement is possible. AREAS TO WATCH: Last year I said that the offensive coordinator had plenty of experience and was a good hire. UAB put up solid regular season #’s that included 29.5 points per game, 4.5 yards-per-carry and 61% through the air. He was NOT retained. The new guy was the coordinator here in ’14 however. That team averaged over 33 points per game. 15 seniors will start, six on the defense. Last year’s #’s were about 24 points allowed, 4.4 per-carry and 51% through the air. The only area that looks a bit worse is LB. UAB had just 19 defensive sacks, down for the 34 they put up in ’14 (no games ’15-’16). Some of the kicking game was solid, but they had three punts blocked and coverage units likely suffered due to a lack of team experience. ’18 PREVIEW: 3-1 is the goal early. The game at Coastal Carolina could be tricky. Tulane is improving but they come to Birmingham. A win there sets them up nicely with revenge vs. Charlotte. I don’t expect a win at Louisiana Tech (one point revenge) but the next five games represent the easy part of the schedule. The road games are at 1-11 Rice and 0-12 UTEP. In their 1st year back UAB outscored these teams 80-28. Home games are vs. decent North Texas (43-46 loss in ’17), rested UTSA (five point win last year) and So Miss. Going 4-1 in these games should make them bowl eligible. Closing games are at Texas A&M and MTSU. MTSU is a good team and will have late field goal revenge. BOTTOM LINE: I went over the 2.5 win total a year ago but had 5-7 as the ceiling. This looks like 8-4 or 7-5 and a legit run at the Divisional title. HANDICAPPING TIP: None.

Louisiana Tech has found his way at L Tech with 34 wins the past four seasons and two title game appearances. The next step is to win the CUSA title game. AREAS TO WATCH: The Bulldogs finally return their starting QB. There’s excellent offensive depth everywhere except at RB. This is watch area #1. The run D took a hit last year but three DL return. Sacks were down 20 but this year the leading sacker returns. Skip Holtz likes his LB’s but two of three are new, both being JUCO’s. This is watch area #2. Watch area #3 is at kicker. The battle is on to replace a good one. ’18 PREVIEW: Can the Bulldogs start 2-0. That hasn’t happened for quite some time but going to South Alabama (new staff, modest experience) and hosting 7-4 Southern has to result in 2-0. A rested Bulldog team heads to LSU who will be in-between two SEC games. Maybe that game is close but LSU hasn’t lost to this team in 114 years! Games 4-6 will probably determine if after a one year absence this team can return to the CUSA title game. They visit North Texas (one point loss last year gave North Texas the title), host UAB (another one point loss) and visit UTSA (four game win streak). L Tech is a sound road team but will have its hands full at FAU. The only other difficult CUSA game is at So Miss. They’ve lost three in a row vs. the Golden Eagles but on paper have the better team this year. BOTTOM LINE: 8-4. Tiebreakers may determine the Divisional champ. I think this team can achieve 6-2 in conference play, so a win hosting UAB would give them a leg up in the Division. With more close games expected it may come down to making field goals! HANDICAPPING TIP: I like L Tech in their game at LSU. I’ll wait on the rest, looking at my watch areas for clues.

North Texas The Mean Green won five games in ’16 and went to a bowl game despite having a Power # not even 100th best for all the NCAA. Since when do CUSA teams who go 5-7, and 3-5 in conference play get invited to play in bowl games? They went 9-5 last year, losing early at SMU and Iowa, losing twice to FAU, and losing to Troy in the bowl game. 17 starters return and the Mean Green are the consensus pick to return to the title game. The CUSA Western Division race should be fun to watch. AREAS TO st WATCH: Nine starters return to an offense that excelled in ’17. There are three areas of concern. 1 , QB Mason Fine has to cut down on his 15 interceptions. 2nd, the OL returns all five starters and needs to reduce their 39 sacks allowed. An astounding 19 sacks were allowed in their final three games (Rice, FAU, and Troy). I expect improvement in these areas but replacing a RB who ran for 6.5 per carry and scored 16 TD’s won’t be as easy. This will remain a good offense even with just two seniors projected to start. Seven starters return to a defense that had issues a year ago. North Texas was involved in many a shootout. Yes, they finished 7-1 in the conference but their regular season point D was tied for 12th! Their conference run D was 4.6 per carry. Their pass D% was great but they allowed too many splash plays. Just like Louisiana Tech (above), the Mean Green has to replace an elite kicker (20-22, 9-11 from 40-49 yards). A former Arkansas kicker (14-24) has big shoes to fill. ’18 PREVIEW: Army is replaced by Liberty on the non-conference schedule. Game one is interesting. SMU beat this team 54-32 last year and has won the last three games. SMU has a senior dominated starting lineup and a solid offense but will travel to Denton for this game with a new staff. This should be close! CUSA play opens up with a critical host of Louisiana Tech. The Mean Green squeezed out a 24-23 victory last year. Which new kicker is better? A rested So Miss team visits 10/13. North Texas was 6-0 at home last year while So Miss was 5-1 on the road! North Texas won 46-43 vs. UAB on a late field goal. The rematch is at their place. I’m concerned about their last three conference games. They travel to a rested Old Dominion team that is well coached and is better than people think. They have double revenge vs. Lane Kiffin’s FAU squad, but that team is good. North Texas escaped with a 29-26 win hosting UTSA on a late TD pass. The finale is at their place and is right after their FAU revenge game. BOTTOM LINE: North Texas is a better team than a year ago but might not repeat a 4-0 record in close games. My concerns include their overall ability to slow down decent offenses and the kicking game. UAB and L Tech are no better than this team but I think North Texas will lose other CUSA games due to schedule placement and opponents faced. They could beat SMU and open 3-1 but I see no more than 5-3 in conference play. They’re good, but not maybe good enough to repeat as CUSA Western champs? HANDICAPPING TIP: My looks are as follows: Plus as a dog hosting SMU. Fade as a favorite hosting Louisiana Tech. Possible fade in the finale at UTSA.

Rice David Baliff almost lost his job once before. Baliff was 11-41 in a 52 games stretch. After going to three consecutive bowl games the Owls went 5-7, 3-9 and 1-11, this time costing Baliff his job. Rice is 7-27 lately vs. FCS teams. This will not be a quick fix. AREAS TO WATCH: Rice has intercepted a total of five passes in the past two seasons, combined. Let that sink in! Now they lose their top five tackle leaders, including a guy who had ten sacks! After allowing nearly 36 points per game, 5.0 per carry on the ground and nearly 70% through the air the Owls look no better! The offense loses a 57% QB who split time with two other guys. These two QB’s combined for about 46%, throwing 11 interceptions in 169 attempts. Ouch! Two RB’s have talent and I think will post solid numbers. The OL has to be rebuilt. st There is good news, and plenty of it. 1 , the new coaching staff is an upgrade. That’s not hard but comes from David Shaw’s Stanford program where he was the offensive coordinator. The new defensive coordinator comes from Michigan. The new special team coach is a former head coach who also has special team ties. Maybe by osmosis the stat sheet and game play gets better. Rice had an overall point ratio of 16-36. Part of that can be attributed to a -23 turnover ratio, which by formula cost them over 85 points. Games could be more competitive in ’18 if that turnover ratio gets better. An issue in year #1 for the new staff is youth. The offense will be especially young. Rice will be implementing a th pro-style offense and that transition will take time. ‘17 PREVIEW: Rice adds a 13 game (at Hawaii) and adds Wake Forest. They drop powerful Stanford and run powerhouse Army. They may be competitive hosting Houston but I doubt they are ready to win. Opening with a win vs. 6-5 Prairie View A&M would send a nice message. Hawaii looks like a poor team so maybe Rice can run on them when they visit the islands. The two road games that could be competitive are at So Miss and at FIU. I’ll project 0-2 but will factor in how the new staff is doing prior to those games. Several home games could be competitive. They host a UTSA team with little returning depth and a new QB. They host UAB right after the Blazers play a critical road game at Louisiana Tech! They host 0-12 UTEP. Finally, they host Old Dominion to close the season. The Monarchs are the better team but who knows what their motivation might be at this point, plus Rice may just improve based on coaching alone (lost only by three at their place a year ago). BOTTOM LINE: In this spot a year ago I called for a coaching change. While Rice has several winnable games it may be too early to expect outright wins given the style change, youth and all the ground this team has to make up. Long term fortunes look promising. While it’s not a guarantee the QB and defense will be ready to defeat Prairie View A&M, a win to open ’18 would instill confidence. 3-10, plus statistical improvement would be an acceptable goal for this season. HANDICAPPING TIP: None, but I lean going vs. the Owls on 11/17 at LSU if installed as a large (24+) underdog. LSU won’t be facing a scheduling disadvantage and the Owls might be fatigued with all their youth, coming off a CUSA road game at Louisiana Tech.

Southern Mississippi st Jay Hobson’s 1 year resulted in a bowl game only because the Golden Eagles upset Louisiana Tech on the final weekend. I expected 7-5 or 6-6 last year and the Golden Eagles met my challenge (7-5). Year three may present more challenges. AREAS TO WATCH: Two QB’s combined to hit 56%, but now senior Kendra Griggs was more efficient with a stout 16-2 TD to interception ratio. As of 8/11 he has been suspended. The offense will miss Ito Smith (1,415 yards, 13 TD’s 5.7 average and 40 receptions. All three starting WR’s are gone (160-19 TD’s). The OL is very young! Only two seniors are slated to start on this offense. I see a rise in sacks allowed (14) and an overall drop in offensive production. The defense has been stout for two years running but loses their fine coordinator. Only four starters return and the secondary will be brand new! The #’s were outstanding last year but now I see regression. Sacks obtained (24) will have a chance to improve with three of their top four guys back. Eight touted JUCO’s have been added to the team. Readers, that is watch area #1, with RB play watch area #2. So Miss has one of the top special team units in CUSA. ’18 PREVIEW: Southern Miss inserts App St and Auburn for Kentucky and Tennessee. I will study ALL aspects of this team following their opener hosting 3-8 Jacksonville St. ULM was 4-8 a year ago but returns solid depth. They have to come to Hattiesburg but this one could be close. Rice will be rested but is awfully young. Most So Miss teams would be an “easy” 3-1 heading into CUSA play. Will there be any slipups in ’18 considering this team looks weaker than a year ago? So Miss was 5-1 in road games in ’17 and has been competitive on the road historically. I think that this year’s squad will have trouble winning at North Texas and at UAB. Games 7- 9 are critical if the Golden Eagles are to make a 4th consecutive bowl game. They host a young UTSA team playing its 8th straight week without rest. They travel to experienced Charlotte, a team that is 1-14 in their last 15 home games at this level. They host a rested Marshall team. Can they achieve 3-0? So Miss has won three in a row vs. Louisiana Tech and hosts the Bulldogs on 11/17. This game, along with the finale at UTEP could have a direct bearing on their bowl hopes. BOTTOM LINE: This is a weaker team with more questions (RB, WR, OL, secondary, new defensive coordinator) than answers (improved sack production, good special team play). I think this is the year we find out what kind of a head coach Jay Hobson is. 6-6 seems like a logical conclusion but part of me says that the team may struggle to achieve consistency. Watch for signs of weakness early. HANDICAPPING TIP: My lean is vs. So Miss 10/29 at Auburn and 11/17 hosting Louisiana Tech.

UTEP liked to take the air out of the football, running fewer plays than almost any other program. I said last year that with a record of 18-31, any further offensive issues could result in a coaching change. The offense was the worst in America, leading to 0-12, with Kugler abandoning ship after game #5. UTEP starts from square one in ’18. AREAS TO WATCH: UTEP scored more than 16 points once, and finished ’18 with an under 12 point per game average. That’s hard to do in today’s wide open football. They averaged 231 yards on offense, something 60 teams can do in 30 minutes of play! The new QB comes from the JUCO ranks where he ran for 20 TD’s and passed for 20 TD’s a year ago. Head Coach had stints at Wyoming and Houston and prepped under mentor Bill Synder the past nine seasons. Dual threat QB’’s should suit his style. The OL will be a work in progress, especially considering that this winless team sent a #2 draft choice to the NFL in OG ! Six starters return to a defense that will be without its top four tacklers. Former Kansas St LB coach is the new coordinator. He adds two grad transfers to the projected starting lineup, one a DT from Kansas St. (no significant stats) and the other a LB from Oregon (clear upgrade). The team has 25 sacks in their past 24 games. Kicking was awful in ’17. A freshman may win the job over both incumbents. The overall unit might improve only because of Dimel’s pedigree (Kansas St. always elite in this facet of the game). 63 passes were thrown in the spring game. That’s two+ games worth by UTEP’s previous standards. ’17 PREVIEW: UTEP clearly had a tougher schedule in ’17, including two extra road games. They have an easier non-conference schedule this year and move from five to six home games. I’ll post-check a number of areas following their opener vs. 7-5 Northern Arizona including QB accuracy and impact, OL play, the JUCO defensive players and the kicking game. Readers should do the same! Can UTEP hang with UTSA at their place? They actually have two straight road wins in the series. North Texas is better than this team but I’m curious to see what difference the new, but experienced coaching staff has made prior to this home game! The same holds true prior to hosting UAB. As you can see, there will be lots of pre-checks this season. The two November games where they might be competitive are at Rice (which new staff is adjusting better, how UTEP is faring in road games) and home to So Miss in the season finale. BOTTOM LINE: Much depends on the new QB, a staple in an offense that utilizes principles similar to Dimel’s roots at Kansas St. The schedule is kinder and the staff is improved but team talent won’t push them over the top unless QB play on offense and the JUCO’s and grad transfers on defense make an immediate difference. The change in scheme might take time, just like at Rice. 3-9, with noticeable roster improvement would be a step in the right direction. HANDICAPPING TIP: UTEP is 1-8- 1 vs. the spread in back-to-back road games but I’m not anxious to use that situation this year at the new staff of Tennessee. I’ll mostly sit and learn early this season.

UTSA Frank Wilson replaced longtime coach Larry Coker after the program dipped to 4-8 with 20 returning starters and 3-9 the following season. The debut season was stronger than expected at 6-7, counting a nd 23-20 bowl loss at New Mexico. UTSA also finished 2 in CUSA’s West Division. Year #2 was a bit of a disappointment at 6-5, especially when no one stepped up to invite the Roadrunners to a bowl game. UTSA wants to remedy that situation but must do so with just ten returning starters. AREAS TO WATCH: QB Dalton Strum graduated (62%, 15-5 ratio). A JUCO transfer with supposed run-pass ability is the frontrunner to replace him. He’ll have a serviceable RB at his disposal but a depleted WR group and an OL that won’t be as good. What I do like is that the new offensive coordinator is Al Borges (previous guy st fired). The gigantic loss on defense is 1 round draft choice Marcus Davenport! There’s DL depth but he’ll be missed. The secondary was near elite last year. Yes, they faced a mediocre slate of QB’s but allowing 49% and just 160 yards per game is special no matter what. Ten of 11 projected starters are upperclassmen but there will be three new faces in the secondary. Watch this area closely. The LB coach takes over as the new coordinator, as the former coordinator left to join the staff at Alabama. The kicker is solid. The theme continues however in that there is a new special team coach. ’18 PREVIEW: UTSA played just 11 games a year ago (weather issue). This year they drop Southern and add road games at ASU and Kansas St. That sounds daunting. UTSA started 3-0 last year. I project 0-3 now with the new road games and a home game vs. revenge-minded Baylor in year #2 of the Matt Ruhle era. Games 4-6 could result in 3-0, IF the Roadrunners can find a QB as well as readily adapt to the trio of coaching changes. They face Texas St., Rice and UTEP. These teams combined to go 3-33 a year ago, with one win being Rice over UTEP and another being Texas St. over Houston Baptist. Anything less than 3-0 would be a major red flag! Can they be competitive at So Miss? My 1st thought is no, due to potential fatigue. A loss could put them at 3-6, with remaining games vs. FIU, at Marshall and home to North Texas. BOTTOM LINE:UTSA has played decently under Frank Wilson and enter year #3 with an upgrade at offensive coordinator and a solid kicking game. Even with expected decline in defensive #’s they may still be competitive as the ’17 stat sheet was impressive. Still, they break in a new QB, lose a rare #1 draft choice, must rebuild their secondary and face a more difficult schedule. 4-8 or maybe 5-7 sounds about right. HANDICAPPING TIP: None, with leans vs. UTSA hosting Louisiana Tech and for them at So Miss.

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