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West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study WP1: Scenario Modelling Base Case West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study WP1: Scenario modelling base case Report for West Midlands Low Emissions Towns & Cities Programme Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179 WP1 Final Date 28/08/2014 Edited and Issued 02/02/2015 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study Customer: Contact: Birmingham City Council Beth Conlan (on behalf of West Midlands Low Emissions Ricardo-AEA Ltd Town & Cities Programme) Gemini Building, Harwell, Didcot, OX11 0QR t: 01235 75 3480 Customer reference: e: [email protected] WP1 Ricardo-AEA is certificated to ISO9001 and ISO14001 Confidentiality, copyright & reproduction: This report is the Copyright of Ricardo-AEA and has been prepared by Ricardo-AEA Ltd under contract to Birmingham City Council. Author: The contents of this report may not be reproduced in whole or in part, nor passed to John Abbott and Scott Hamilton any organisation or person without the specific prior written permission of Ricardo- Approved By: AEA. Ricardo-AEA Ltd accepts no liability Beth Conlan whatsoever to any third party for any loss or damage arising from any interpretation or Date: use of the information contained in this report, or reliance on any views expressed 28 August 2014 therein. Signed: Ricardo-AEA reference: Ref: ED58179- WP1 Final Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final i West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study Executive summary West Midland Metropolitan Local Authorities, including Birmingham, Coventry, Dudley, Sandwell, Solihull, Walsall and Wolverhampton have developed the Low Emission Towns and Cities Programme (LETCP) in response to the challenges posed by road transport emissions. The West Midlands Urban Area includes the most extensive area outside London in terms of exceeding the EU Limit Value for nitrogen dioxide (NO 2). The development of a Low Emission Zone (LEZ) Feasibility Study is one of the key objectives of the LETCP. The aim is to provide a technical study to investigate the feasibility of creating a transferable LEZ model for the West Midlands. The West Midlands Authorities have selected various scenarios for the LEZ study, based on their assessment of where there is the need and potential to reduce pollutant concentrations by vehicle emissions control measures. This report describes technical studies carried out for the Low Emission Zone Feasibility Study. It describes the development of a robust methodology for assessing the impact of Low Emission Zones on air quality. The methodology includes dispersion modelling and the source apportionment of measured concentrations at pollution hotspots. The methodology is used to identify the relative contribution to current nitrogen dioxide concentrations from different classes of vehicle in each of the scenario case study areas. A Low Emission Zone (LEZ) is a geographically defined area where the most polluting vehicles in the fleet are restricted or discouraged from use. The aim is to improve air quality by setting an emissions based standard for the vehicles within the area. Vehicles sold in the UK comply with European emission standards, designated Euro 1-6 for cars and light commercial vehicles and Euro I-VI for heavy duty vehicles. The report compares the rates of emission of oxides of nitrogen from different Euro class vehicles at appropriate speeds. It identifies which Euro class vehicles emit more than the current fleet average and are thus potentially subject to control by an LEZ. The options for further investigation of the technical feasibility of Low Emission Zones were discussed at a meeting of the steering group on 28 November 2013 following a review of the results set out in the report. The report provides a summary of options based on monitoring data for 2011. Subsequently it was found that data for 2012 shows higher concentrations at some locations where for example an exceedance of the nitrogen dioxide yearly objective level is reported in Wolverhampton. This is addressed in the sequel report (reference WP1a). Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final ii West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study Table of contents 1 Introduction ................................................................................................................ 1 2 Measured concentrations.......................................................................................... 3 2.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................ 3 2.2 West Midlands automatic monitoring.................................................................. 4 2.3 Birmingham City Centre ....................................................................................10 2.4 Bearwood Road urban street canyon ................................................................11 2.5 M6/M6 Toll motorways ......................................................................................13 2.6 A458/A456 Inter-urban corridor.........................................................................16 2.7 4M bus route.....................................................................................................17 2.8 A459/A457 inter-urban corridor .........................................................................20 2.9 A454 inter-urban corridor ..................................................................................23 2.10 Ball Hill Corridor ................................................................................................24 2.11 A459 inter-urban corridor ..................................................................................25 2.12 Summary ..........................................................................................................26 3 Traffic data.................................................................................................................29 3.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................29 3.2 PRISM traffic model ..........................................................................................29 3.3 Department for Transport manual counts ..........................................................32 3.4 SPECTRUM......................................................................................................33 3.5 Network West Midlands.....................................................................................33 3.6 Comparison of PRISM and DfT manual count data...........................................36 3.7 Vehicle classification .........................................................................................40 4 Dispersion modelling................................................................................................41 4.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................41 4.2 LADSUrban.......................................................................................................41 4.3 Model verification ..............................................................................................42 4.4 Modelled nitrogen dioxide concentrations .........................................................46 4.5 Emission reduction priorities .............................................................................66 5 Source apportionment of measured concentrations..............................................68 5.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................68 5.2 Selected roads..................................................................................................68 5.3 Road traffic........................................................................................................69 5.4 Emissions .........................................................................................................71 5.5 Overall source apportionment ...........................................................................72 6 Emission control measures......................................................................................76 6.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................76 6.2 Comparison of emission factors ........................................................................76 7 Plans for further work ...............................................................................................80 7.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................80 7.2 Scenario Areas .................................................................................................80 7.3 Scenario Options...............................................................................................81 Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final iii West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study 1 Introduction West Midland Metropolitan Local Authorities, including Birmingham, Coventry, Dudley, Sandwell, Solihull, Walsall and Wolverhampton have developed the Low Emission Towns and Cities (LETC) Programme in response to the challenges posed by road transport emissions. The West Midlands Urban Area includes the most extensive area outside London in terms of exceeding the EU Limit Value and the National Air Quality Objective for nitrogen dioxide (NO 2). The development of a Low Emission Zone (LEZ) Feasibility Study is one of the key objectives of the
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