Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study WP1: Scenario modelling base case

Report for West Midlands Low Emissions Towns & Cities Programme Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179 WP1 Final Date 28/08/2014 Edited and Issued 02/02/2015 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

Customer: Contact: City Council Beth Conlan (on behalf of West Midlands Low Emissions Ricardo-AEA Ltd Town & Cities Programme) Gemini Building, Harwell, Didcot, OX11 0QR t: 01235 75 3480 Customer reference: e: [email protected] WP1 Ricardo-AEA is certificated to ISO9001 and ISO14001

Confidentiality, copyright & reproduction: This report is the Copyright of Ricardo-AEA and has been prepared by Ricardo-AEA Ltd under contract to Birmingham City Council. Author: The contents of this report may not be reproduced in whole or in part, nor passed to John Abbott and Scott Hamilton any organisation or person without the specific prior written permission of Ricardo- Approved By: AEA. Ricardo-AEA Ltd accepts no liability Beth Conlan whatsoever to any third party for any loss or damage arising from any interpretation or Date: use of the information contained in this report, or reliance on any views expressed 28 August 2014 therein. Signed:

Ricardo-AEA reference:

Ref: ED58179- WP1 Final

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final i West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study Executive summary

West Midland Metropolitan Local Authorities, including Birmingham, , , , , and have developed the Low Emission Towns and Cities Programme (LETCP) in response to the challenges posed by road transport emissions. The West Midlands Urban Area includes the most extensive area outside in terms of exceeding the EU Limit Value for nitrogen dioxide (NO 2). The development of a Low Emission Zone (LEZ) Feasibility Study is one of the key objectives of the LETCP. The aim is to provide a technical study to investigate the feasibility of creating a transferable LEZ model for the West Midlands. The West Midlands Authorities have selected various scenarios for the LEZ study, based on their assessment of where there is the need and potential to reduce pollutant concentrations by vehicle emissions control measures. This report describes technical studies carried out for the Low Emission Zone Feasibility Study. It describes the development of a robust methodology for assessing the impact of Low Emission Zones on air quality. The methodology includes dispersion modelling and the source apportionment of measured concentrations at pollution hotspots. The methodology is used to identify the relative contribution to current nitrogen dioxide concentrations from different classes of vehicle in each of the scenario case study areas. A Low Emission Zone (LEZ) is a geographically defined area where the most polluting vehicles in the fleet are restricted or discouraged from use. The aim is to improve air quality by setting an emissions based standard for the vehicles within the area. Vehicles sold in the UK comply with European emission standards, designated Euro 1-6 for cars and light commercial vehicles and Euro I-VI for heavy duty vehicles. The report compares the rates of emission of oxides of nitrogen from different Euro class vehicles at appropriate speeds. It identifies which Euro class vehicles emit more than the current fleet average and are thus potentially subject to control by an LEZ. The options for further investigation of the technical feasibility of Low Emission Zones were discussed at a meeting of the steering group on 28 November 2013 following a review of the results set out in the report. The report provides a summary of options based on monitoring data for 2011. Subsequently it was found that data for 2012 shows higher concentrations at some locations where for example an exceedance of the nitrogen dioxide yearly objective level is reported in Wolverhampton. This is addressed in the sequel report (reference WP1a).

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final ii West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

Table of contents

1 Introduction ...... 1

2 Measured concentrations...... 3 2.1 Introduction ...... 3 2.2 West Midlands automatic monitoring...... 4 2.3 Birmingham City Centre ...... 10 2.4 Bearwood Road urban street canyon ...... 11 2.5 M6/ motorways ...... 13 2.6 A458/A456 Inter-urban corridor...... 16 2.7 4M bus route...... 17 2.8 A459/A457 inter-urban corridor ...... 20 2.9 A454 inter-urban corridor ...... 23 2.10 Ball Hill Corridor ...... 24 2.11 A459 inter-urban corridor ...... 25 2.12 Summary ...... 26

3 Traffic data...... 29 3.1 Introduction ...... 29 3.2 PRISM traffic model ...... 29 3.3 Department for Transport manual counts ...... 32 3.4 SPECTRUM...... 33 3.5 Network West Midlands...... 33 3.6 Comparison of PRISM and DfT manual count data...... 36 3.7 Vehicle classification ...... 40

4 Dispersion modelling...... 41 4.1 Introduction ...... 41 4.2 LADSUrban...... 41 4.3 Model verification ...... 42 4.4 Modelled nitrogen dioxide concentrations ...... 46 4.5 Emission reduction priorities ...... 66

5 Source apportionment of measured concentrations...... 68 5.1 Introduction ...... 68 5.2 Selected roads...... 68 5.3 Road traffic...... 69 5.4 Emissions ...... 71 5.5 Overall source apportionment ...... 72

6 Emission control measures...... 76 6.1 Introduction ...... 76 6.2 Comparison of emission factors ...... 76

7 Plans for further work ...... 80 7.1 Introduction ...... 80 7.2 Scenario Areas ...... 80 7.3 Scenario Options...... 81

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final iii West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

1 Introduction

West Midland Metropolitan Local Authorities, including Birmingham, Coventry, Dudley, Sandwell, Solihull, Walsall and Wolverhampton have developed the Low Emission Towns and Cities (LETC) Programme in response to the challenges posed by road transport emissions. The West Midlands Urban Area includes the most extensive area outside London in terms of exceeding the EU Limit Value and the National Air Quality Objective for nitrogen dioxide (NO 2). The development of a Low Emission Zone (LEZ) Feasibility Study is one of the key objectives of the LETCP. The aim is to provide a technical study to investigate the feasibility of creating a transferable LEZ model for the West Midlands. The West Midlands Authorities have selected the following case study scenarios for the LEZ study, based on their assessment of where there is the need and potential to reduce pollutant concentrations by vehicle emissions control measures: • City/Town Centre-Birmingham City Centre - The study will look at the possible effects of improving the emissions of key vehicle sectors within the area bounded by the Middle Ring Road. It will include an analysis of bus emissions building on the Birmingham City Centre Statutory Bus Partnership Scheme, which requires bus operators serving the City Centre to meet minimum standards of service provision, including vehicle emissions. • Urban street canyon-Bearwood Road - Bearwood Road is typical of a congested street canyon in which buildings close to the road restrict pollutant dispersion. High concentrations of nitrogen dioxide have been measured where people live close to the road. • Strategic motorway network-M6/M6 Toll motorways - Several sections of the M6 within the West Midlands Metropolitan Area are ranked by the Department for Transport in the bottom 10% of motorways for journey reliability, measured as average vehicle delays. The M6 carried almost 125,000 vehicles per day in 2010. The M6 Toll was opened in 2003 as a parallel motorway to the M6, aimed at reducing congestion by providing an alternative route to vehicles transiting between the northwest and the southeast through the region. When the M6 Toll opened, it was projected to carry 70,000 vehicles per day but it carried less than 40,000 per day in 2010. The M6 passes close to some of the most populated areas in the West Midlands: the M6 Toll, on the other hand, passes through less densely populated areas with less potential for exposure to road transport emissions. The LEZ study will consider feasible mechanisms for reducing traffic on the M6 by diverting certain vehicle types transiting the West Midlands onto the M6 Toll. • Inter-Urban Corridors- - A458/A456 corridor: This route between Dudley and Birmingham City Centre is heavily trafficked and typical of key inter-urban corridors within the West Midlands, causing significant exposure issues to residents along the route. - 4M bus route: This route between Walsall and passes through several town centre areas including Blackheath. - A457/A459 between Birmingham city centre and Wolverhampton city centre - A454 Walsall to Wolverhampton - Ball Hill corridor, Coventry. This is a major route into the city centre from the M6 with local bus services and commercial traffic” - A459 through Netherton. This report describes technical studies carried out for the LEZ Feasibility Study. It describes the development of a robust methodology for assessing the impact of LEZs on air quality.

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 1 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

The West Midlands local authorities measure air pollutant concentrations at monitoring sites throughout their areas. The measurements help to establish where pollutant concentrations exceed European Union limit values and thus can be used to identify candidate areas for LEZ. Section 2 of the report provides a summary of recent pollutant concentration measurements in the case study scenario areas. Road transport is a major contributor to pollutant concentrations at most locations throughout the West Midlands. The development of an LEZ requires information on traffic flows and the composition of the traffic. Section 3 of the report describes the main sources of traffic data used in this study. It describes how the data sources were combined to provide an integrated model of traffic throughout the West Midlands suitable for the assessment of the impacts of LEZs. Pollutant monitoring can identify whether concentrations currently exceed EU limit values at specific locations. Dispersion modelling provides further information about the spatial extent of the exceedence and the effects of future changes in emissions resulting from the implementation of an LEZ. Section 4 of the report describes the development of a dispersion model and its use to assess the contribution from different classes of vehicle to current nitrogen dioxide concentrations. The accuracy of the dispersion model is limited by the level of detail provided by the traffic data and by inherent assumptions about how pollutants disperse in the atmosphere. In practice, traffic emissions can be influenced by features that locally increase measured concentrations. These include: • Steep hills • Pedestrian crossings • Traffic light junctions • Restricted dispersion from street canyons • Bus stops • Taxi ranks • Congestion caused by on-street parking In these circumstances, it is useful to carry out source apportionment of measured concentrations based on the emissions from adjacent roads. Section 5 of the report describes a method of source apportionment of measured concentrations at measurement hotspots. The method can be used to estimate the likely change in measured concentrations resulting from future changes in emissions. A Low Emission Zone (LEZ) is a geographically defined area where the most polluting vehicles in the fleet are restricted or discouraged from use. The aim is to improve air quality by setting an emissions based standard for the vehicles within the area. Vehicles sold in the UK comply with European emission standards, designated Euro 1-6 for cars and light commercial vehicles and Euro I-VI for heavy duty vehicles. Section 6 compares the rates of emission of oxides of nitrogen from different Euro class vehicles at appropriate speeds. It identifies which Euro class vehicles emit more than the current fleet average and are thus potentially subject to control by and LEZ. The options for further investigation of the technical feasibility of LEZs were discussed at a meeting of the steering group on 28 November 2013 following a review of the results set out in the report. This report provides a summary of the options.

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 2 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

2 Measured concentrations

2.1 Introduction This section provides a summary of recent measurements of pollutant concentrations obtained from the local authorities’ air quality monitoring networks in the case study areas. The measured concentrations are compared with the EU limit values. The EU limit values are set out in the Air Quality Directive (2008/50/EC). The Directive sets legally binding limits for concentrations in outdoor air of major air pollutants that impact public health such as particulate matter (PM 10 and PM 2.5 ) and nitrogen dioxide (NO 2). The Air Quality Directive was made law in through the Air Quality Standards Regulations 2010. The limit values for nitrogen dioxide are: • 40 µg m -3 as an annual mean • 200 µg m -3 as an hourly mean not to be exceeded more than 18 times in a calendar year.

The EU limit values for particulate matter, PM 10 are: • 40 µg m -3 as an annual mean • 50 µg m -3 as an 24-hour daily mean not to be exceeded more than 35 times in a calendar year. -3 The EU limit values for particulate matter, PM 2.5 is 25 µg m as an annual mean to be achieved by 1 st January 2015. Local authorities are required to review and assess concentrations of pollutants against National Air Quality Objectives in their areas under the Environment Act 1995. The National Air Quality Objectives are set out the Air Quality Strategy for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, 2007. The objectives for nitrogen dioxide and particulate matter, PM 10 are based on the EU limit values. Local authorities are not currently required to assess PM 2.5 concentrations in their areas. The air quality objectives in the Air Quality Strategy are a statement of policy intentions or policy targets. As such, there is no legal requirement to meet these objectives except in as far as these mirror any equivalent legally binding limit values in EU legislation. The Air Quality Directive sets detailed macro-scale and micro-scale siting requirements for assessing compliance with the EU limit values. Local Air Quality Management Technical Guidance LAQM.TG(09) requires local authorities to select sampling locations that take into account those places where concentrations are expected to be the highest, and where the public may be exposed over the relevant averaging period of the objectives. Sampling locations for assessment against the National Air Quality Objectives do not have to meet the macro- and micro- scale siting requirements of the EU Directive. Annual mean nitrogen dioxide concentrations are compared with “limit values” throughout this report. To avoid repetition, the report does not always refer separately to the EU limit values and the National Air Quality Objectives. Exceedence of the limit values, as referred to throughout this report, does not imply non-compliance with the EU Directive. Section 2.2 provides a summary of measured concentrations at continuous automatic monitoring across the West Midlands. Sections 2.3-2.10 summarise the nitrogen dioxide concentrations measured by diffusion tube in each of the scenario study areas. This report provides summary data for the base year agreed for this study, 2011, wherever possible. The data are taken from air quality review and assessment reports from the local authorities or from the West Midlands Air Quality Group web site (http://www.wmair.org/ ):

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 3 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

• Birmingham City Council 2012 Updating and Screening Assessment • Coventry City Council 2012 Updating and Screening Assessment • Dudley Metropolitan Borough Council 2012 Updating and Screening Assessment • Sandwell Metropolitan Borough Council 2011 Progress Report • Walsall Metropolitan Borough Council 2012 Updating and Screening Assessment • Wolverhampton City Council 2012 Updating and Screening Assessment The review and assessment reports provide details of previous years’ measured concentrations. The Councils have continued to monitor pollutant concentrations in their areas.

2.2 West Midlands automatic monitoring Most of the West Midlands local authorities operate continuous automatic monitors that measure concentrations of nitrogen dioxide and particulate matter. Figure 1 shows the locations of the sites that measure nitrogen dioxide concentrations. It shows the locations of urban background, roadside, industrial and other types of site. Table 1 lists the sites and provides details of the distance from nearest relevant receptors and from the nearest kerb. It also lists the annual mean nitrogen dioxide concentrations and the numbers of exceedences of the hourly limit value for nitrogen dioxide of 200 µg m -3measured in 2011. Figure 1: Location of relevant continuous automatic monitors

Note: Some air quality monitoring stations have been closed since 2011 and new stations have since been commissioned.

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 4 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

Table 1: Automatic continuous nitrogen dioxide monitoring, 2011 Annual mean Number of Distance to Distance to kerb, nitrogen dioxide exceedences of Local Authority Site Type nearest relevant m concentration, µg the hourly limit exposure, m m-3 value Birmingham Tyburn Roadside Roadside 10 6 45 0 Birmingham Tyburn Urban background 27 65 34 0 Birmingham Fore Street Roadside 1 6 48 0 Birmingham Stratford Road Roadside 1 5 36 0 Birmingham Selly Roadside 21 7 33 0 Birmingham New Hall Urban background 41 20 19 0 Birmingham Acocks Green Urban background 49 68 23 0 Coventry Queensland Avenue Roadside 9 3.5 33 0 Coventry Foleshill Road Roadside 9 6 30 0 Coventry Ball Hill Roadside 2.5 3.5 41 0 Coventry Tollbar End Roadside 25 4.5 50 0 Dudley Central Dudley Urban background N/A N/A 24.7 0 Dudley Colley Gate Roadside 21 4 39 0 Dudley Burnt Tree Roadside 9 9 28 0 Dudley Roadside 7 4 56.3 0 Sandwell Urban background 109 27 25.6 0 Sandwell Birmingham Road Roadside 8 5 41.7 3 Sandwell Wilderness Lane Roadside 147 11 46.7 0 Sandwell Haden Hill Urban background 105 119 17.8 0 Walsall Alumwell Other N N/A 26.7 b Walsall St Pauls Bus Station Other 7 7 42.8 0 Walsall M6 Junction 9 Roadside 25 4 65.4 9 Wolverhampton Street Roadside 4.5 2.5 36 1 Wolverhampton Penn Road Roadside 10 5 38 c 0

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 5 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

Annual mean Number of Distance to Distance to kerb, nitrogen dioxide exceedences of Local Authority Site Type nearest relevant m concentration, µg the hourly limit exposure, m m-3 value Wolverhampton Stafford Road Roadside 10 8 34 0 Wolverhampton Road Roadside 13 10 38 0 c Low data capture Walsall Elmore Green and Walsall Chuckery were discontinued in 2010.

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 6 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

The measured NO 2 concentrations were less than the annual limit value at all the urban background sites and most of the roadside sites. The limit value however, was exceeded at some sites: Birmingham Tyburn Roadside site is close to the A38, a busy dual carriageway. It is within 1 km of the M6 motorway. Birmingham Fore Street site is located close to Corporation Street in the city centre. In 2011, most of the buses serving the city centre stopped at a line of bus stops in Corporation Street, which is a street canyon with tall buildings on both sides. There is also a taxi rank next to the monitor: occasionally an ice cream van parks next to the monitor. Coventry Ball Hill site is located on the A4600 on a parade of shops with on-street parking for loading. The monitor is next to a bus stop and 30 m from a pedestrian crossing. The road is relatively steep at this point. Coventry Tollbar End site is located close to a roundabout junction between the A45 and A46 trunk roads. Both these roads carry high volumes of traffic. Dudley Wordsley site is located close to the A491 within a parade of shops with on- street parking. The road travels up a relatively steep incline at this point. Sandwell Birmingham Road site is located on the A457 Birmingham Road, a busy dual carriageway. Walsall Ring Road site is located close to the busy ring road. Walsall St Pauls Bus station site is located at a busy bus station. Walsall M6 junction 9 site is close to A461 Bescot Road on the approach to the roundabout junction with the M6. There were fewer than 18 exceedences of the 200 µg m -3 hourly limit value of nitrogen dioxide at all of the monitoring sites in 2011.

Particulate matter, as PM 10 is measured at many of the same sites. Table 2 shows the measured annual mean concentrations in 2011 and the number of exceedences of the 24 hour limit value. The local authorities use two methods for measuring PM 10 concentrations: Filter Dynamic Measurement System (FDMS) and the Tapered Element Oscillating Microbalance (TEOM). The FDMS method is equivalent to the EU reference standard. The TEOM method is not equivalent to the reference method but can be shown to be equivalent if the measurements are corrected using the Volatile Correction Method (VCM) recommended in Defra’s technical guidance. The West Midlands local authorities apply the VCM method.

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 7 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

Table 2: Automatic continuous particulate matter, PM 10 monitoring, 2011 Distance to Annual mean Number of nearest Distance to PM exceedences of Local Authority Site Type Monitor type 10 relevant kerb, m concentration, the 24-hour exposure, m µg m -3 limit value Birmingham Tyburn Roadside Roadside FDMS 10 6 24 0 Birmingham Tyburn Urban background FDMS 27 65 23 0 Queensland Coventry Roadside TEOM(VCM) 9 3.5 16 1 Avenue Coventry Foleshill Avenue Roadside TEOM(VCM) 9 6 18 18 Coventry Tollbar End Roadside FDMS 25 4.5 25 0 Dudley Central Dudley Urban background TEOM(VCM) N/A N/A 21.8 13 Dudley Colley Gate Roadside TEOM(VCM) 21 4 26.2 18 Dudley Burnt Tree Roadside TEOM(VCM) 9 9 20.7 11 Sandwell West Bromwich Urban background FDMS 109 27 17.2 10 Sandwell Birmingham Road Roadside FDMS 8 5 19.1 13 Sandwell Wilderness Lane Roadside FDMS 147 11 18.4 9 Sandwell Haden Hill Urban background TEOM(VCM) 105 119 18.4 7 Walsall M6 Junction 9 Roadside TEOM(VCM) 25 4 17.5 1 Wolverhampton Lichfield Street Roadside TEOM(VCM) 4.5 2.5 23 16 Wolverhampton Penn Road Roadside TEOM(VCM) 10 5 25 15 Wolverhampton Stafford Road Roadside TEOM(VCM) 10 8 23 11 Wolverhampton Willenhall Road Roadside TEOM(VCM) 13 10 23 14 Pendeford High Wolverhampton Urban background TEOM(VCM) N/A N/A 19 7 School

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 8 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

The annual mean and 24-hour limit values for PM 10 were met at all the monitoring sites.

Particulate matter, PM 2.5 concentrations are measured at relatively few of the West Midlands monitoring sites. Table 3 shows measured annual mean concentrations for 2011. The FDMS method for PM 2.5 is equivalent to the EU reference method. The TEOM method for PM 2.5 is however not equivalent and no Volatile Correction Method has been developed. The TEOM measurements will underestimate the total PM 2.5 concentrations as part of the volatile matter is lost in the measurement device. Measured concentrations are less than the limit value for PM 2.5 .

Table 3: Automatic continuous particulate matter, PM 2.5 monitoring, 2011 Distance to Distance Annual mean PM Local Monitor nearest 2.5 Site Type to kerb, concentration, µg Authority type relevant m m-3 exposure , m Tyburn Birmingham Roadside FDMS 10 6 17 Roadside Urban Birmingham Tyburn FDMS 27 65 16 background Urban Sandwell Haden Hill TEOM 105 119 10.8 background

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 9 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

2.3 Birmingham City Centre Figure 2 shows the area of the Birmingham City Centre study area, bounded by the Middle Ring Road.

Birmingham City Council measures NO 2 by automatic continuous monitor at seven sites throughout the City. Figure 2 shows the sites that are within or close to the study area: these are Fore Street, Selly Oak, Stratford Road and Acocks Green.

The Council have maintained a relatively small network of NO 2 diffusion tubes until recently. Figure 3 shows the locations of the sites that are within or close to the study area. Figure 2: Nitrogen dioxide monitoring around the Birmingham Middle Ring Road study area

The Council set up a more detailed City Centre network starting in April 2011. The locations of the diffusion tubes in the City centre network are shown in Figure 3.

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 10 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

Figure 3: Birmingham city centre diffusion tube network

Table 4 provides some details of the diffusion tube network sites and measured concentration in 2011. The concentration at each of the sites in the study area (Broad Street and the Children’s Hospital) substantially exceeded the limit value. Table 4: Nitrogen dioxide concentrations measured at sites in the Council’s diffusion tube network in Birmingham city centre Distance to Distance to Annual mean kerb of Site name location Site type relevant concentration, nearest road, exposure, m 2011, µg m -3 m

567 Broad Street Roadside N/A 3 55

568 Broad Street Roadside 1 3 55

621 Childrens Urban centre 1 3 60 Hospital

The results of the city centre diffusion tube network have not been ratified and published yet. Birmingham City Council provided provisional results for this study on a confidential basis. The results indicate that the annual mean nitrogen dioxide concentration substantially exceeded the limit value in 2011 at roadside sites along the main bus routes throughout the city centre including Corporation Street, Priory Queensway, Masshouse Lane and Moor Street Queensway.

2.4 Bearwood Road urban street canyon The Bearwood Road urban street canyon is in Sandwell Metropolitan Borough. The Council maintain a network of nitrogen dioxide diffusion tubes. Figure 4 shows the locations of the

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 11 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study tubes in the vicinity of the urban street canyon. Table 5 provides details of the classification of each diffusion tube, the distance from the nearest relevant exposure and the distance from the kerbside of the nearest road. It also lists the most recent reported annual mean concentrations of NO 2. The measured annual mean concentrations in 2010 at all these sites were close to or exceeded the limit value. Figure 4: Diffusion tube sites on Bearwood Road

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 12 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

Table 5: Diffusion tube measurements on Bearwood Road, 2010 Distance to Distance to kerb Annual mean Site name Site type relevant of nearest road, concentration, 2010, exposure, m m µg m -3 C9A Roadside 0 2.6 42.2 C9D Kerbside No b 0.6 38.5 C9E Roadside 0 3.6 44.5 a C10A Roadside 0 4 55.5 C10D Kerbside No 1 66.4 OA Roadside 0 2.9 46.5 OB Roadside 0 5.5 47.4 OC Roadside 0 3.2 46.5 OD Roadside 0 5.2 48.9 OE Roadside 0 4.0 44.0 OF Roadside No 0.1 43.7 OG Roadside No 1.6 46.2 OH Roadside No 0.1 51.2 OI Roadside No 0.1 45.7 OJ Roadside No 0.1 55.2 OP4 Roadside No 5.5 44.7 Bearwood Road Kerbside/ Roadside 5 <8 62.4 Opsis a Low data coverage b No indicates the site is not representative of relevant exposure

2.5 M6/M6 Toll motorways The M6 passes through Solihull, Birmingham, Sandwell, Walsall and South council areas. The M6 Toll passes through Walsall, North Warwickshire, Lichfield, and Chase council areas. Most of the councils continue to maintain networks of NO 2 diffusion tubes. Figure 5 shows the locations of diffusion tubes that are close to the M6 or M6 Toll roads, identified in recent Local Authority Air Quality Review and Assessment reports. Table 6 provides details of the classification of each diffusion tube, the distance to the nearest relevant exposure and the distance to the kerb of the nearest road. Table 6 also shows the most recent reported annual mean nitrogen dioxide measured at each monitoring site. Where the M6 passes through urban areas in Walsall, Sandwell and Birmingham measured annual mean concentrations at many, but by no means all, sites close to the motorway in these council areas exceed the limit value. Measured concentrations at the diffusion tube sites in Walsall (in 2010) and South Staffordshire were less than the limit value. The M6 Toll passes through less urbanised areas. Measured annual mean concentrations at sites close to the motorway in North Warwickshire (Farthing Lane, Coleshill Road, Coleshill Cottages, Water Orton, Gilson), Lichfield and were all substantially below the limit value. Measurements at the M6 Toll sites in Lichfield were stopped after 2008 as the measured concentrations did not approach the limit value. There is a complex junction between the M42, M6 and M6 Toll in North Warwickshire. The NO 2 concentration measured at some diffusion tube sites close to the motorway junction (M6 Coleshill, AQMA farmhouse fence and the sites co-located with the M6 Coleshill automatic monitor) exceeded the limit value. Other sites in the area were substantially below the limit value.

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 13 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

Figure 5: Diffusion tube sites close to the M6 and M6 Toll

Table 6: Diffusion tube sites close to the M6 and M6 Toll Distance to Distance Measured Local Site location Type relevant to kerb, concentration, Year Authority -3 exposure, m µg m m ES4 Essington Roadside 0 6 34. 2011 South ES5 Essington Roadside 0 8 30.7 2011 Staffordshire ES6 Essington Roadside 0 11 33.5 2011 Birmingham 577 Shelley Drive Roadside 1 16 50 2011 Farthing Lane, 4 Roadside 10 2 21.6 2009 Curdworth Coleshill Road, 5 Roadside 35 2 22.8 2009 Curdworth Coleshill Cottages, 6 Roadside 0 23 25.7 2009 Coleshill 7 Water Orton Roadside 5 25 24.2 2009 8 Gilson Roadside 0 5 31.0 2009 9 M6 Coleshill Roadside 223 23 46.8 2009 North Coventry Rd, Warwickshire 10 Roadside 15 14 31.3 2009 Coleshill 11 Coleshill School Roadside 0 78 26.3 2009 Packington Lane, 12 Roadside 0 30 24.0 2009 Coleshill Monitoring Station 15 Other 245 57 42.3 2009 1,2, &3 AQMA Farmhouse 16 Roadside 8 32 34.2 2009 (Gate) AQMA Farmhouse 17 Roadside 28 15 41.6 2009 (Fence)

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 14 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

Distance to Distance Measured Local Site location Type relevant to kerb, concentration, Year Authority exposure, m µg m -3 m Urban KA Great Barr 0 15 39.3 2010 background Urban KB Great Barr 0 15 44.0 2010 background Urban KC Great Barr 0 14.7 47.8 2010 background Urban KD Great Barr 0.3 9.4 42.4 2010 background QE Great Barr Roadside No a 1.8 33.8 2010 Urban SA Great Barr No 5.1 37.4 2010 background Urban SB Great Barr No 5.1 34.2 2010 background Urban XE Great Barr 4.3 16.3 41.6 2010 background Urban YC Great Barr 0 10.3 31.5 2010 background Urban YD Great Barr 3.6 8.5 36.0 2010 background Urban Sandwell YF Great Barr 0 23.2 35.2 2010 background ZA Great Barr Roadside No 0.3 44.0 2010 Urban ZF Great Barr 0 89.2 39.7 2010 background Urban ZJ Great Barr 0 114.2 36.0 2010 background WA Yew Tree Roadside 8 0.2 44.8 2010 Urban WB Yew Tree No 1.6 37.2 2010 background Urban WD Yew Tree 0 14.2 37.7 2010 background Urban WF Yew Tree 8 0.2 42.8 2010 background Urban WG Yew Tree 0 6.2 29.5 2010 background Urban WW 0 6.5 34.0 2010 background WW3 Wednesbury Roadside 0 9.1 32.0 2010 WW4 Wednesbury Roadside 4.8 1.6 31.3 2010 Crompton Close 1 Roadside 1 2 26 2010 Crompton Close 2 Roadside 1 2 29 2010 Murdoch Way 1 Roadside 1 2 21 2010 Walsall Murdoch Way 2 Roadside 1 2 29 2010 Bentley Lane 1 Roadside 1 3 36 2010 Bentley Lane 2 Roadside 1 3 33 2010 M6 Junction 9 Roadside 25 4 65.4 2011 Automatic Hilton, nr M6 Toll M6T(1) Roadside 60 37 24.0 2008 Eastbound Lichfield Summerhill, nr M6 M6T(2) Roadside 30 37 30.0 2008 Toll Eastbound Cannock 268WS Roadside 0 3.75 35.6 2011 Chase

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 15 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

2.6 A458/A456 Inter-urban corridor The A458/A456 inter-urban corridor passes through Dudley and Sandwell Council areas. Both of these councils maintain networks of NO 2 diffusion tubes. Figure 6 shows the location of diffusion tubes that are close to the inter-urban corridor. Dudley diffusion tube site 3r-t is co-located with the Colley Gate automatic monitoring site. Table 7 provides details of the category of each diffusion tube, the distance from the nearest relevant exposure and the distance from the kerb of the nearest road. It also lists the most recent measured annual mean concentrations.

Concentrations of NO 2 measured at roadside sites in the west of the study area (sites 21, Wollaston) were less than the limit value in 2011. Concentrations measured at High Street, Lye (sites 11) were also less than the limit value. The concentrations at roadside sites through (sites 3 and 15) are generally close to or above the limit value. The Windmill Hill and Drews Holloway sites are located on a relatively steep hill. The Road sites are affected by on-street parking. Measured concentrations close to the junction with Bearwood Road in Sandwell (sites C10) were substantially greater than the limit value. Concentrations measured at background sites (4, 19x, PB) were substantially less than the limit value. Figure 6: Diffusion tubes close to the A458/A456 inter-urban corridor

Note: Site 19x is wrongly located in Figure 6: it is a background site close to 15, 15a, 15b .

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 16 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

Table 7: Diffusion tube measurements close to the A458/A456 inter-urban corridor Distance to Measured Local Distance Site Location Type relevant concentration authority to kerb, m -3 exposure, , µg m m Dudley 3k Off Drews Holloway, Halesowen Background 12 47 19.5 (2011) 3a Drews Holloway, Halesowen Roadside 0 4.3 50.6 3bx Windmill Hill, Halesowen Roadside 0 4.7 44.6 3c Windmill Hill, Halesowen Roadside 0 4 39.1 3d Windmill Hill, Halesowen Roadside 0 3.9 38.2 3e Windmill Hill, Halesowen Roadside 0 2.7 42.7 3g Windmill Hill, Halesowen Roadside 0 0.9 48.8 3gx Windmill Hill, Halesowen Roadside 0 2.1 45.7 3r-t Colley Gate AQMS, Halesowen Roadside No 3.5 39.8 4 Junction Road, Stourbridge Background 0 N/A 16.4 11 High Street, Lye Roadside 5 2.3 34.0 11b High Street, Lye Roadside 0 1.4 35.2 15 Stourbridge Road, Halesowen Roadside 0 3 38.0 15a Stourbridge Road, Halesowen Roadside 0 2.4 39.7 15b Stourbridge Road, Halesowen Roadside 35 1.5 40.7 16b High Street Stourbridge Roadside 0 1.3 32.6 19x Regent Close, Halesowen Background 12 1.6 19.4 21d High Street, Wollaston Roadside 0 1.7 39.5 21e High Street, Wollaston Roadside 0 2.6 33.0 21f High Street/Bridgnorth Road, Roadside 4 1.8 35.5 Wollaston 21h Bridgnorth Road, Wollaston Roadside 2 3.6 30.2 50aX Dudley Road, Lye Roadside 0 3.2 42.3 50d Pedmore Road, Lye Roadside 0 4 35.9 50x Pedmore Road, Lye Roadside 0 10.8 27.5 50e Pedmore Road, Lye Roadside 0 2.8 39.7 51 Morevale Gardens, Lye Roadside 0 18 35.2 52 High Street, Roadside 0 4.8 32.6 Sandwell C10A Roadside 0 4 55.5 (2010) C10D Kerbside No 1 66.4 HB Roadside No 0.3 n/a HC Roadside 0 8.8 31.0*lowdc PB Background 0 69.4 28.6 *low dc

2.7 4M bus route The 4m bus route passes from Walsall through Sandwell and Dudley Council areas. Sandwell and Dudley councils maintain networks of NO 2 diffusion tubes. Figure 7 shows the location of diffusion tubes that are close to the bus route. Table 8 provides details of the category of each diffusion tube, the distance from the nearest relevant exposure and the distance from the kerb of the nearest road. It also lists the most recent reported annual mean concentrations (2010 Sandwell, 2011 Dudley)

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 17 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

Figure 7: Diffusion tube sites along the 4M bus route

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 18 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

Table 8: Diffusion tube measurements close to the 4M bus route Distance to Measured Local Distance to Site Area Type relevant concentration, kerb, m -3 Authority exposure, m µg m C2A Roadside 0 9.8 41.9 C2D Roadside 0 11.3 37.3 a C2E Roadside 0 4.9 40.2 C1D Roadside N 2.0 52.6 SU Roadside 0 7.8 34.9 PS2A West Bromwich Roadside 0 9.6 38.8 PS2B Roadside 0 9.6 38.3 ED Roadside 4.0 4.5 50.6 a EE Roadside 0 3.5 42.0 a EF Roadside 5.2 5.5 41.3 a N1A Roadside N 2.1 44.6 N1B Kerbside N 0.9 43.2 C5A Roadside 0 2.1 48.9 C5D Oldbury Roadside 8.3 0.7 43.5 C5E Roadside 2.9 1.9 49.0 UA Roadside N 2.0 51.0 a Sandwell UB Roadside 7.4 1.2 45.5 a UC Roadside 7.7 0.2 46.9 a C11A Roadside 0 4.9 42.1 C11D Blackheath Kerbside 1.3 0.5 49.6 C11E Kerbside 4.5 0.1 49.2 C12A Roadside 0 2.5 54.4 C12D Kerbside N 0.1 53.3 C12E Roadside 0 3.5 49.4 CH1 Roadside N N N/A CH2 Roadside N 3.0 37.9 CH3 Roadside 0 2.3 37.3 CH4 Kerbside N 0.9 35.2 CH5 Kerbside N 0.5 N/A CH6 Kerbside 14.0 4.6 N/A CH7 Kerbside N 1 N/A CH8 Roadside 27.5 1.9 N/A 30 Roadside 0 2.7 59.2 30dx Roadside 0 3.4 31.3 High Street, Quarry 30eX Roadside 3.0 2.3 46.0 Dudley Bank 30g Roadside 0 2.3 39.0 30m Roadside 0 2.4 45.9 30w Merry Hill Roadside 6 3.1 37.9 a Low data capture

Measured concentrations at Stone Cross (C2A, C2D, C2E) are close to or slightly above the limit value of 40 µg m -3. Measured concentration on A4031 All Saints Way (C1D) is

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 19 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study substantially above the limit value, but the location is not considered representative of relevant exposure. South of All Saints Way, the bus route passes through West Bromwich. Concentrations measured at diffusion tubes on the route leading into the town centre (PS2A, PS2B, SU) are less than the limit value. High concentrations were measured at diffusion tube site ED, adjacent to the West Bromwich bus station. Concentrations at other diffusion tube sites in West Bromwich (EE, EF, N1A, N1B) were slightly above the limit value. The bus route passes along Bromford Road between West Bromwich and Oldbury, past Sandwell and Dudley railway station. Measured concentrations at diffusion tubes alongside this part of the route (C5A, C5D, and C5E) exceeded the limit value in 2010. The bus route then passes along the Oldbury Road towards Blackheath. Diffusion tubes UA, UB and UC are close to a traffic light controlled junction with Throne Road and Titford Lane. Concentrations measured in 2010 at these sites were above the limit value. The bus route leaves the A4034 Oldbury Road to go into Blackheath town centre. Diffusion tubes C11A, C11D and C11E are located close to a roundabout in the middle of Blackheath. Concentrations measured at these sites in 2010 exceeded the limit value. The bus route follows the A4100 High Street towards Cradley Heath. Diffusion tubes C12A, C12D and C12 E are close to the traffic light controlled junction with Holly Road. The concentrations measured at these sites in 2010 substantially exceeded the limit value. The bus route leaves the A4100 to pass through Cradley Heath High Street. Concentrations measured in 2010 at diffusion tubes located on this part of the route (CH2, CH3, CH4) were less than the limit value. The bus route continues along the A4100 through High Street. Quarry Bank High Street is a steep hill, with shop facades relatively close to the road on both sides. Measured concentrations at diffusion tube sites 30, 30eX and 30m substantially exceed the limit value. Site 30 is located at the junction with Sheffield Street, opposite a chip shop. Sites 30 eX and 30m are located close to pedestrian-controlled crossings. Concentrations measured at sites 30dx and 30g are less than the limit value. The 4M bus route turns towards Merry Hill along the A4036. The measured concentration in 2011 at site 30w, close to the road, was less than the limit value.

2.8 A459/A457 inter-urban corridor The A459/A457 inter-urban corridor between Wolverhampton and Birmingham passes through Wolverhampton, Dudley, Sandwell and Birmingham council areas. All these councils maintain networks of NO 2 diffusion tubes. Figure 8 shows the location of diffusion tubes that are close to the route. Table 9 provides details of the category of each diffusion tube, the distance from the nearest relevant exposure and the distance from the kerb of the nearest road. It also lists the most recent reported annual mean concentrations (2010 Sandwell, 2011 Dudley and Wolverhampton). The Birmingham network does not include sites close to this inter-urban corridor.

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 20 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

Figure 8: Diffusion tube sites along the A459/A457 inter-urban corridor

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 21 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

Table 9: Diffusion tube measurements close to the A459/A457 inter-urban corridor Distance Distance Measured to relevant Local Authority Site Location Type to kerb, concentration, exposure, -3 m µg m m DUD Dudley Road Roadside 4.5 3.5 26 a

Wolverhampton Wolverhampton a WRE Roadside N 50 15 Road, East Dudley Street, 32 Roadside 0 2.6 40.7 Dudley Street, 32b Roadside N 2.7 39.4 Dudley Sedgley 32e High Street, Sedgley Roadside 10 2.9 41.8 32f High Street, Sedgley Roadside 0 1.2 43.3 C13A Roadside 0 8.6 38.5 b C13E Roadside 4.1 2.4 34.1 C7A Roadside 1.5 0.6 56.1 C7D Kerbside 11.3 1.6 47.9 C7E Roadside 0 9.5 42.7 C7F Kerbside 4.7 0.3 56.7 C7G Roadside 0 10.6 37.2 b C7H Roadside 0 4.4 42.9 C7I Roadside 0 4.6 38.3 C6A Roadside 0 17.2 41.7 C6D Roadside 9.9 15.3 40.1 C6E Kerbside 13.8 0.5 51.2 b BA Roadside 7.7 7.8 43.9 BB Roadside 25.6 0.5 43.9 BC Oldbury Roadside 0 5.9 48.4 b Sandwell BD Roadside 0 5.8 40.9 BDQ Roadside 0 8.6 43.5 BE Roadside 2.5 0.8 57 BF Roadside 0 5.8 51 BG Roadside 0 5.6 47.4 BM Background 0 9 N/A BO Roadside 0 6.2 45.7 BP Roadside 0 6.8 47.7 BR Roadside 0 5.9 48.7 BS Background 8.6 16.3 49.7 GA Roadside 8.2 5.4 49.4 GB Roadside 8.2 5.4 50.2 GC Roadside 8.2 5.4 49.7 GD Roadside 8.2 5.4 41.0 N2B Kerbside N 0.2 38.4 a Distance adjusted b Low data capture

The A459/A457 inter-urban corridor follows the A459 between Wolverhampton and Sedgley. Wolverhampton council have two diffusion tubes installed close to this part of the route (DUD, WRE). The council has adjusted the measured data to estimate concentrations at the

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 22 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study nearest relevant receptor, following Defra technical guidance LAQM.TG(09). The adjusted concentrations are well below the limit value for nitrogen dioxide. The route then passes along A459 High Street and A457 Dudley Street in Sedgley. Measured concentrations at diffusion tubes close to the road (32 series) are close to the limit value. The route then passes along the A457 to the junction with A461 Dudley Port. Diffusion tubes C13A and C13E are close to the road as it approaches the junction. Measured concentrations at these sites in 2010 were less than the limit value. The inter-urban corridor passes follows the A457 Dudley Road towards Oldbury. Sandwell’s C7 series of diffusion tubes are close to this part of the road. Relatively high concentrations, substantially above the limit value, were measured at sites C7A, C7D and C7F. Sites C7A and C7D are located close to the roundabout junction between the A457 and Roway Lane and Brades Road. Concentrations measured at other sites in this area are close to or above the limit value. Diffusion tube sites C6 are located close to the A457 Oldbury Ringway. The measured concentration at site C6E was substantially higher than the limit value. This measurement is however based on low data capture. The site is very close to the junction between A457 and Stone Street. The other sites in this area measured concentrations slightly above the limit value. The A457 Birmingham Road passes between Oldbury and Smethwick. It passes under the M5 motorway. Sandwell Council’s B and G series diffusion tubes are installed along this stretch of road. Measured concentrations at all these sites exceeded the limit value in 2010. The highest concentrations were observed at sites BE and BF, which exceeded 50 µg m -3. Site BE is located close to a pedestrian-controlled crossing and the junction with Popes Lane. The A457 follows Soho Way around Smethwick. The concentration measured at site N2B close to this stretch of the road was less than the limit value.

2.9 A454 inter-urban corridor The A454 inter-urban corridor between Walsall and Wolverhampton passes through Wolverhampton and areas. NO 2 concentrations have been measured in these council areas, although the measurements in Walsall were discontinued in 2011 1. Figure 9 shows the location of diffusion tubes that are close to the route. Table 10 provides details of the category of each diffusion tube, the distance from the nearest relevant exposure and the distance from the kerb of the nearest road. It also lists the most recent reported annual mean concentrations (2010 Walsall, 2011 Wolverhampton). Concentrations measured at most of these sites were less than the limit value. Concentrations exceeded the limit value slightly in 2010 at the Wolverhampton Road site.

1 In Walsall monitoring with a continuous NO x analyser at the Wolverhampton Road/Pleck Road junction has been on-going since 19 th January 2012, and prior to this an OPSIS monitoring station was installed at this location.

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 23 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

Figure 9: Diffusion tube sites along the A454 inter-urban corridor

Table 10: Diffusion tube measurements close to the A454 inter-urban corridor Distance Measured to relevant Distance Local Authority Site Location Type concentration, exposure, to kerb, m -3 µg m m HOR Horseley Fields Roadside 3.2 2.7 36 2 Willenhall WIL1 Roadside 14.5 3.5 23 Road Wolverhampton Willenhall WIL2 Roadside 6.5 6.5 36 Road Willenhall WIL3, 4, 5 Roadside 11 10 30 Road 8 Wolverhampton Road Roadside 2 3 41 Walsall Manor Court Roadside 16 2 26

2.10 Ball Hill Corridor The A4600 Ball Hill corridor connects Coventry city centre to the M6 and M69 motorways. Coventry council maintain a network of diffusion tubes. Figure 10 shows the location of diffusion tubes that are close to the route. Table 11 provides details of the category of each diffusion tube, the distance from the nearest relevant exposure and the distance from the kerb of the nearest road. It also lists the most recent reported annual mean concentrations (2011). Measured concentrations approach or exceed the limit value. The highest concentrations were measured at BH2a.

2 The Council reported higher concentrations in 2012.

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 24 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

Fig. 10: Diffusion tube sites along the Ball Hill corridor

Table 11: Diffusion tube measurements close to the Ball Hill corridor Distance to Measured Distance to kerb, Site Type relevant concentration, µg m -3 exposure, m m BH1 5.2 2.6 39.1 BH2a 0 3.9 48.7 BH4 3.5 1.3 41.4 Roadside BH6 1 4.5 47.7 BH9 0 0 29.5 BH10 2 0 45.2

2.11 A459 inter-urban corridor The A459 inter-urban corridor takes traffic south from Dudley through Netherton to the junction with the A4100. Dudley Council maintain a network of diffusion tubes to monitor NO 2 concentrations close to residential properties near the road in Netherton. Figure 11 shows the location of diffusion tubes that are close to the route. Table 12 provides details of the category of each diffusion tube, the distance from the nearest relevant exposure and the distance from the kerb of the nearest road. It also lists the most recent reported annual mean concentrations (2011). Most of the measured concentrations were close to or below the limit value of 40 µg m -3. At four sites (27g, 27 gX, 27j and 27k) the concentration substantially exceeded the limit value. These four sites are located within 40 m of each other on a very steep hill.

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 25 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

Figure 11: Diffusion tube sites along the A459 inter-urban corridor

Table 12: Diffusion tube measurements close to the A459 inter-urban corridor Distance to Measured Distance to Site Site name Type relevant concentration, kerb, m -3 exposure, m µg m Urban 60 Belper Row, Netherton No N/A 23.2 background 27f Cradley Road, Netherton Roadside 0 2.8 36.9 27b Halesowen Road, Netherton Roadside 0 6 35.5 27c Halesowen Road, Netherton Roadside No 1.1 38.3 27g Halesowen Road, Netherton Roadside 0 1.5 65.3 27gX Halesowen Road, Netherton Roadside 0 1.5 65.6 27j Halesowen Road, Netherton Roadside 0 1.6 57.0 27k Halesowen Road, Netherton Roadside 0 2.5 47.9 27n Halesowen Road, Netherton Roadside 0 5 32.3 27p Halesowen Road, Netherton Roadside 0 2.7 40.3 27t Halesowen Road, Netherton Roadside 0 2.4 40.3 27q Castleton Street, Netherton Roadside 0 1.4 25.7 64 Cinder Bank, Netherton Roadside 0.2 6.1 32.2

2.12 Summary Local authorities measure nitrogen dioxide concentrations by continuous automatic monitor at a variety of sites across the West Midlands, including background sites and roadside sites. Concentrations have exceeded the annual mean limit value for NO 2 at several sites.

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 26 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

The local authorities also measure particulate matter as PM 10 concentrations at many of these sites. Measured concentrations have been less than the EU limit values at all the sites.

Relatively few measurements of particulate matter, PM 2.5 concentrations have been made in the West Midlands. The measured concentrations are below the EU limit value for PM 2.5 .

Local authorities measure NO 2 concentrations at potential hot spots throughout each of the scenario study areas. Some of the measured concentrations were less than the annual mean limit value and these areas are of less concern. High concentrations however were observed at many of the diffusion tube sites and these form the focus of this study. Table 13 lists the areas of concern.

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 27 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

Table 13: Areas of concern Scenario study area Local Authority Areas of concern Birmingham city centre Birmingham Broad Street Children’s Hospital Corporation Street Priory Queensway Masshouse Lane Moor Street Queensway Bearwood Road Sandwell Bearwood Road M6/M6 Toll North Warwickshire M6/M6 Toll/M42 junction Birmingham Shelley Drive Sandwell Great Barr Yew Tree Wednesbury Walsall 3 Junction 9 A458/A456 inter-urban Dudley Drews Holloway, Halesowen corridor Windmill Hill, Halesowen Stourbridge Road, Halesowen Sandwell Bearwood Road junction 4M bus route Sandwell Stone Cross West Bromwich town centre Bromford Road Oldbury Road Blackheath town centre Blackheath High Street Dudley Quarry Bank High Street A459/A457 inter-urban Dudley Sedgley corridor Sandwell Dudley Road Oldbury Ringway Birmingham Road A454 inter-urban corridor 4 Walsall Wolverhampton Road Ball Hill Coventry Ball Hill A459 Inter-urban corridor Dudley Netherton

3 Walsall Council commented that the North is another area of concern for them. 4 Wolverhampton Council commented that the Neachells Lane Junction is an area of concern for them.

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 28 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

3 Traffic data

3.1 Introduction The main sources of traffic data used in this feasibility study were: • PRISM traffic model • Department for Transport manual classified counts • SPECTRUM traffic monitoring database • The Network West Midlands website The PRISM traffic model provided the main inputs to the air quality model. The Department for Transport (DfT) manual classified counts data provided details of the traffic composition on major roads throughout the area and also provided a check on the PRISM model outputs. The SPECTRUM database provided additional traffic data in urban areas. The Network West Midlands website provided details of bus routes and frequencies. This section describes how the data were combined to provide best estimates of traffic flows for air quality modelling.

3.2 PRISM traffic model Mott MacDonald Group Ltd. provided outputs from the PRISM traffic model for the years 2006, 2016 and 2026 for the whole of the West Midlands area and including the route of the M6 Toll. Figure 12 shows the spatial extent of the model outputs provided with respect to local authority boundaries and the motorway network. The data set includes 29172 road links for 2006.

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 29 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

Figure 12: Spatial extent of the PRISM traffic model

Mott MacDonald provided four data sets for each of the model years corresponding to the following periods of the day for an average weekday: Tim Time period Modelled period Highway assignment hour AM 0700 - 0930 0800 - 0900 IP 0930 - 1530 Average hour PM 1530 - 1900 1700 - 1800 OP 1900 - 0700 Average hour period Modelled Each dataset contains the data described in Table 14 for each road link.

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 30 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

Table 14: Link characteristics and outputs provided by the PRISM traffic model Data Type Name Description Type Link Link number Link ID Input Characteris From node number From node ID Input tics To node number To node ID Input Link type The type of link, can be used to identify Input motorways. Permitted user classes States which user classes are permitted to Input use this link in the model Link length (km) The modelled link length Input Speed Speed limit The maximum speed permitted on this link Input in the model All vehicle Modelled speed per user class Output Flow Modelled flow - all vehicles Modelled traffic flow in total vehicles Output Modelled flow - total PCU Modelled traffic flow in total PCU Output Modelled flow - car business Modelled traffic flow per user class Output Modelled flow - car commute Output Modelled flow - car education Output Modelled flow - car other Output Modelled flow - HGV Output Modelled flow - HGV through Output trips Modelled flow - LGV Output

The model provides average weekday traffic flows for each of the modelled periods for all vehicles and for HGVs. Mott MacDonald provided a report -“West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Note 1-PRISM factors for environmental data”- that contained factors to convert these traffic flows to hourly average weekday flows and to convert from hourly average 5 day weekday flows to hourly average 7 day weekday flows. Table 15 provides a summary of the factors. Mott MacDonald’s report provides further details of the derivation of these factors.

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 31 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

Table 15: Conversion factors to convert period flows to annual average daily traffic Motorway Non-motorway Highway 5 day week hour to Highway 5 day week Convert Time assignment hour 7day week hour assignment hour to 7day from period to weekday hour hour to week hour weekday hour All HGV All HGV All HGV All HGV OP Hour 0 to 1 0.501 0.651 1.038 0.854 0.585 0.922 1.171 0.871 OP Hour 1 to 2 0.394 0.676 1.023 0.855 0.392 0.834 1.265 0.863 OP Hour 2 to 3 0.37 0.715 0.986 0.85 0.324 0.758 1.295 0.872 OP Hour 3 to 4 0.413 0.758 0.928 0.837 0.308 0.741 1.228 0.857 OP Hour 4 to 5 0.611 1.028 0.85 0.798 0.355 0.862 1.044 0.831 OP Hour 5 to 6 1.128 1.487 0.799 0.766 0.719 1.218 0.87 0.791 OP Hour 6 to 7 2.295 2.043 0.769 0.754 1.673 2.013 0.809 0.774 AM Hour 7 to 8 1.103 1.082 0.772 0.777 0.964 0.92 0.773 0.772 AM Hour 8 to 9 1 1 0.817 0.79 1 1 0.795 0.78 AM Hour 9 to 9:30 0.447 0.578 0.857 0.771 0.426 0.559 0.857 0.771 IP Hour 9:30 to 10 0.481 0.461 0.857 0.771 0.492 0.503 0.857 0.771 IP Hour 10 to 11 0.941 1.003 0.924 0.765 0.907 1.043 0.925 0.767 IP Hour 11 to 12 0.971 1.044 0.941 0.76 0.931 1.048 0.961 0.764 IP Hour 12 to 13 1.003 1.042 0.944 0.756 1.005 1.012 0.974 0.753 IP Hour 13 to 14 1.033 1.025 0.934 0.754 1.053 0.974 0.967 0.746 IP Hour 14 to 15 1.039 0.988 0.92 0.753 1.053 0.976 0.954 0.742 IP Hour 15 to 15:30 0.531 0.439 0.922 0.74 0.56 0.446 0.922 0.74 PM Hour 15:30 to 16 0.504 0.8 0.922 0.74 0.463 0.943 0.922 0.74 PM Hour 16 to 17 1.046 1.272 0.909 0.778 1.015 1.463 0.898 0.748 PM Hour 17 to 18 1 1 0.923 0.802 1 1 0.898 0.769 PM Hour 18 to 19 0.845 0.955 0.938 0.801 0.853 0.785 0.91 0.791 OP Hour 19 to 20 1.89 1.046 0.972 0.795 2.279 0.938 0.944 0.818 OP Hour 20 to 21 1.513 1.033 0.981 0.795 1.774 0.796 0.968 0.828 OP Hour 21 to 22 1.208 0.978 0.982 0.79 1.412 0.774 0.98 0.822 OP Hour 22 to 23 0.951 0.84 0.983 0.787 1.255 1.009 0.98 0.801 OP Hour 23 to 24 0.725 0.746 0.997 0.785 0.925 1.134 1.018 0.799

3.3 Department for Transport (DfT) manual counts The DfT provided classified manual traffic counts for major road links throughout the West Midlands 5. The traffic counts give annual average daily traffic (AADT) flows for the following vehicle types: • 2-wheeled Motor Vehicles • Cars & Taxis • Buses & Coaches • Light Goods Vehicles • 2-Axle Rigid HGV • 3-Axle Rigid HGV • 4- or 5-Axle Rigid HGV • 3- or 4-Axle Artic HGV • 5-Axle Artic HGV • 6- or More Axle Artic HGV • All HGVs • All Motor vehicles

5 http://www.dft.gov.uk/traffic-counts/download.php

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 32 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

This study used traffic count data for 2006 and 2011. The 2011 data set included 1,642 road links in the West Midlands. Data for relevant links is presented throughout this report.

3.4 SPECTRUM The SPECTRUM database provides detailed access to all the traffic data collected by the West Midlands local authorities. The data was used in this study to supplement the data provided by the PRISM model and the DfT manual counts where appropriate. In particular, SPECTRUM count data for 2011 were used to provide additional information on traffic composition and taxi flows in Birmingham city centre. Selected data included: • 12 hour classified turning count data: o Fiveways roundabout o Navigation Street/Royal Mail Street o Colmore Circus/Colmore Row/Bull Street o Livery Street/Colmore Row o Moor Street Queensway/Priory Queensway/Masshouse Lane • 12 hour classified passage count data: o Broad Street o Bath Row o Wheeleys Lane o Camp Hill o Coventry Road • 12- hour passage count data, with taxi split: o Corporation Street o Bull Street o Priory Queensway • Continuous classified axle counts: o James Watt Queensway o Jennens Road o Park Street o Digbeth o Bradford Street o Upper Dean Street

3.5 Network West Midlands The DfT manual counts provide bus flow data for major road links throughout the West Midlands though no data is provided for minor roads. Data is also not provided for roads in Birmingham city centre and for where the 4m bus route leaves the main roads through West Bromwich and Blackheath. The Network West Midlands website http://www.networkwestmidlands.com/ provides detailed information about bus routes and bus timetables. Figure 13 shows the roads in Birmingham city centre served by buses in 2011. The website provided details of the bus routes serving these roads in 2011 and the frequency of these bus services.

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 33 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

Figure 13: Roads served by bus routes in Birmingham city centre, 2011

Figures 14 and 15 show the roads making up the route of the 4M bus through West Bromwich and Blackheath and adjoining roads served by buses. The Network West Midlands website provided details of the bus routes serving these roads and the frequency of these bus services.

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 34 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

Figure 14: Roads making up the route of the 4M bus through West Bromwich and adjoining roads served by buses

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 35 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

Figure 15: Roads making up the route of the 4M bus through Blackheath and adjoining roads served by buses

3.6 Comparison of PRISM and DfT manual count data Annual average daily traffic counts for selected roads derived from the PRISM model via the factors set out in Section 3.2 were compared with DfT manual classified count data for 2006. The selected roads were those within the case study scenario areas or were close to the automatic continuous monitoring sites. Figure 16 shows the DfT count for all motor vehicles plotted against the PRISM model flow. Figure 17 similar shows the data for goods vehicles (heavy+light). In general, the points follow the 1:1 line reasonably well although there are substantial differences in some cases, particularly for the goods vehicles.

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 36 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

Figure 16: Comparison of AADT flows from PRISM model output and DfT counts, 2006, all motor vehicles

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 37 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

Figure 17: Comparison of AADT flows from PRISM model output and DfT counts, 2006, goods vehicles

Figure 18 shows the DfT AADT flow for 2011 plotted against the traffic flow for 2006. Generally, the points are close to the 1:1 for most roads, suggesting that traffic flows are little changed between 2006 and 2011. The 2006 PRISM model flows have therefore been applied to 2011 for this study. The analysis identified that traffic flows on A461 Birmingham Road, Dudley decreased sharply between 2006 and 2011 because of road works and this point has been excluded from the plot. This road is close to the Burnt Tree continuous monitor, but is not within the scenario case study areas. Figure 19 shows a similar plot for goods vehicles.

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 38 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

Figure 18: Comparison of vehicle flows for 2011 and 2006, all motor vehicles

Figure 19: Comparison of vehicle flows for 2011 and 2006, goods vehicles

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 39 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

3.7 Vehicle classification The PRISM model does not provide the detailed classification of vehicles required for air quality modelling: this information was obtained from DfT manual counts. The most appropriate DfT count was identified (on the basis of road name, proximity, etc.) for each PRISM road link in the scenario study areas and in the vicinity of the automatic continuous monitors throughout the West Midlands and allocated to the link. For other PRISM links, the nearest DfT count was allocated to each link. Flows, F, of cars, motorcycles and buses were estimated using the following equation in areas outside Birmingham city centre and along the 4M bus route through West Bromwich and Blackheath:

where D is the DfT annual average count and P is the annual average count derived from the PRISM model. Flows of rigid HGV, articulated HGV and LGV were estimated using the following equation:

Flows of cars and motorcycles in Birmingham city centre and along the 4M bus route through West Bromwich and Blackheath were estimated using:

Bus flows in these areas were taken from the bus frequency data provided by Centro (in Birmingham) or from the network West Midlands timetables. For some roads in Birmingham city centre (identified above), classified traffic data was obtained from the SPECTRUM database rather than the DfT counts. This data was applied in a similar way. The SPECTRUM database provided taxi flows for a small number of roads in Birmingham city centre. These flows were added to the PRISM flows.

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 40 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

4 Dispersion modelling

4.1 Introduction Pollutant monitoring can identify whether concentrations currently exceed EU limit values at specific locations. Dispersion modelling provides further information about the spatial extent of the exceedence and the effects of future changes in emissions resulting from the implementation of an LEZ. This section describes the development of a dispersion model and its use to assess the contribution from different classes of vehicle to current NO 2 concentrations.

4.2 LADSUrban The air quality impact from roads throughout the West Midlands was assessed using Ricardo-AEA’s proprietary urban model (LADS Urban). There are two parts to this model: • The Local Area Dispersion System (LADS) model . This model calculates background concentrations of oxides of nitrogen on a 1 km x 1 km grid using a 1 km x 1 km volume source kernel derived using the dispersion model ADMS5. The estimates of emissions of oxides of nitrogen, particulate matter, PM 10 and PM 2.5 for each 1 km x 1 km area grid square were obtained from the 2010 National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory. The contribution from road traffic in the West Midlands area was removed from the inventory. • The DISP model . This model is a tool for calculating atmospheric dispersion using a 10 m x 10 m x 3 m volume-source kernel derived from ADMS5 to represent elements of the road. The volume source depth takes account of the initial mixing caused by the turbulence induced by the vehicles.

The LADSUrban model calculates emissions based on vehicle flows, speeds and traffic composition for each PRISM road link using emission factors equivalent to those in Defra’s Emission Factor Tool, EFT5.2. Many of the PRISM road links are multi-part links that take account of the curvature of the road: the LADSUrban model treats part of a multi-part link separately. Approximately 118,000 links were included in the West Midlands dispersion model.

Hourly sequential meteorological data for 2011 from Elmdon near in the Solihull council area was used to represent weather conditions across the West Midlands. A surface roughness of 1 m was used in the modelling to represent the urban conditions corresponding to the most exposed sites.

The LADSUrban model predicts the contribution to pollutant concentrations from the emission sources included in the model. Other sources including those outside the model domain and natural sources also contribute to total concentrations. A rural background concentration of 16 µg m -3 was added to the modelled oxides of nitrogen concentration, based on measured concentrations at Defra’s Leominster monitoring site. Background -3 -3 concentrations of 17 µg m and 12 µg m were added to particulate matter PM 10 and PM 2.5 concentrations respectively to take account the contributions from secondary particulate matter and natural sources.

The LADS Urban model predicts oxides of nitrogen concentrations. Defra’s NO x to NO 2 converter was used to predict NO 2 concentrations from the predicted oxides of nitrogen

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 41 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

concentrations in each council area. The NO x to NO 2 converter is limited to approximately 60,000 receptors, which limits the area and spatial resolution of model outputs.

4.3 Model verification

Predicted concentrations of NO 2 and particulate matter, PM 10 were compared with measured concentrations for 2011 from continuous automatic monitoring stations throughout the West Midlands. Table 16 shows the modelled and measured NO 2 concentrations. Figure 20 shows the measured NO 2 concentrations plotted against the modelled concentrations. It also shows a 1:1 line to allow comparison. The model provides acceptable estimates of the measured concentrations and so no further adjustment of the model has been made. The model underestimates the measured concentrations at some sites (AG,TR, FS, W on Fig. 20) as there are local features that are not represented in the model at these sites: Acocks Green (AG): The monitor is located close to a minor road for which the PRISM model has zero traffic flow. Tyburn Roadside (TR): The PRISM model represents this broad dual carriageway as a single link and the monitor is some distance from the link centre line. Fore Street (FS): The monitor is located in a street canyon close to a busy bus stop and a taxi rank. An ice cream van is occasionally parked next to the monitor. Wordsley (W): There is a steep hill with roadside parking outside a café. Further consideration may be necessary where local features that are not represented in the model contribute to measured concentrations. Section 5 provides further analysis of concentrations measured by diffusion tube in the study areas.

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 42 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

Table 16: Comparison of modelled and measured nitrogen dioxide concentrations Local Modelled concentration, Measured concentration, Monitoring site Authority µg m -3 µg m -3 Tyburn 33.9 34 Tyburn roadside 37.9 45 Fore St 40.7 48 Birmingham Stratford Road 42.5 36 Selly Oak 25.5 33 New Hall 22.2 19 Acocks Green 25.7 23 Queensland Avenue 32.3 33 Foleshill Road 37.9 30 Coventry Ball Hill 37.9 41 TollBar End 52.3 50 Central Dudley 30.9 24.7 Colley Gate 44.8 39 Dudley Burnt Tree 34.5 28 Wordsley 44.1 56.3 West Bromwich 32.6 25.6 Birmingham Road 54.9 41.7 Sandwell Wilderness Lane 45.8 46.7 Haden Hill 25.2 17.8 Alumwell 33.4 26.7 Walsall Junction 9 58.8 65.4 Lichfield Street 33.5 36 Wolverhampton Stafford Road 35.4 34 Willenhall Road 6 38.7 38

6 2012 data at the automatic site on Willenhall Road was 46 µg m -3 which is an exceedance of the air quality objective

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 43 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

Figure 20: Comparison of modelled and measured nitrogen dioxide concentrations

Table 17 shows modelled and measured particulate matter, PM 10 concentrations at automatic monitoring sites throughout the West Midlands. The measured and modelled concentrations both fall in a relatively narrow range but there is substantial scatter within the range. EU Directive 2008/50/EC sets a data quality objective of ±25% for the uncertainty fixed PM 10 measurements so that a substantial part of the observed scatter may be attributable to measurement uncertainty.

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 44 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

Table 17: Comparison of modelled and measured PM 10 concentrations Local Modelled Measured concentration, Monitoring site authority concentration, µg m -3 µg m -3 Tyburn roadside 20.4 24 Tyburn 19.7 23 Birmingham Queensland Avenue 19.8 16 Foleshill Road 21.7 18 Coventry Tollbar End 21.9 25 Central Dudley 19.8 21.8 Dudley Colley Gate 21.9 26.2 Burnt Tree 20.1 20.7 West Bromwich 19.7 22.7 Birmingham Road 24.5 20.4 Sandwell Wilderness Lane 20.6 17.5 Haden Hill 18.8 17.9 Walsall M6 Junction 9 23.7 17.5 Lichfield Street 20.6 23 Penn Road 24.9 25 Wolverhampton Pendefield High School 18.5 19 Stafford Road 20.2 23 Willenhall Road 21.2 23

Figure 21: Comparison of modelled and measured PM 10 concentrations

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 45 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

4.4 Modelled nitrogen dioxide concentrations

4.4.1 West Midlands 2011

Figure 22 shows the modelled concentrations of NO 2 for 2011 across the whole of the West Midlands area at 100 m x 100 m spatial resolution. Modelled concentrations exceed the EU limit value of 40 µg m -3 close to the motorway network and close to major roads throughout the West Midlands. At other locations the modelled concentrations are less than the limit value.

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 46 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

Figure 22: Modelled nitrogen dioxide concentrations across the West Midlands, 2011

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 47 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

4.4.2 Birmingham city centre Figure 23 shows the modelled concentrations for 2011 in Birmingham city centre within the Middle Ring Road. The model spatial resolution is 10 m x 10 m near to roads, with wider receptor spacing further from the roads. Modelled concentrations exceed the limit value in much of the city centre inside the Inner Ring Road, along the main bus routes and close to the Middle Ring Road. Figure 23 also shows the locations of diffusion tubes in the city centre; these locations are considered to be of particular interest to the council. Table 18 shows the modelled concentrations at these locations for 2011 and 2016. It also shows the background concentration from all sources outside the West Midlands and from non-traffic sources within the West Midlands. Source apportionment of the contributions to NO 2 concentrations for 2011 from specific classes of road vehicles were estimated by running the dispersion model excluding each vehicle class in turn. The NO x to NO 2 converter was then run, taking into account the change in primary NO 2 emissions. The contribution from each vehicle class was then obtained by subtraction. Table 18 also shows the contribution from each vehicle class as a percentage of the total contribution from traffic emissions in the West Midlands.

Cars make the greatest traffic contribution to NO 2 concentrations at the Childrens’ hospital (B621): this receptor is close to the Inner Ring Road. Buses make the largest contribution at most other receptors within the Inner Ring Road. Buses and cars both make substantial contributions on Broad Street (B567, B568), one of the radial roads connecting the Middle and Inner Ring Roads.

NO 2 concentrations are expected to decrease in future years as the result of improvements in vehicle technology. Table 18 shows modelled concentrations for 2016. The model results indicate that the expected reduction in concentrations is not sufficient to achieve the limit value of 40 µg m -3 by 2016 at many of the city centre receptor locations. Figure 23: Modelled nitrogen dioxide concentrations in Birmingham city centre, 2011

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 48 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

Table 18: Source apportionment of vehicle contributions to nitrogen dioxide concentrations, Birmingham city centre Modelled Percentage of traffic Modelled Modelled background contribution concentration, Site concentration, -3 -3 contribution,2011 µg m 2011, µg m -3 Cars LGV HGV Buses M/C µg m 2016 B567 47.5 26.6 50.1 8.3 5.5 35.8 0.4 42.5 B568 49.0 26.0 49.0 8.3 5.1 37.3 0.3 43.7 B621 48.5 28.7 69.9 8.6 9.4 11.6 0.5 45.3 B1 41.8 27.7 31.7 3.7 6.0 58.4 0.2 36.6 B2 41.8 27.7 31.7 3.7 6.0 58.4 0.2 36.6 B3 42.9 27.7 28.9 3.5 5.6 61.8 0.3 37.4 B4 46.1 27.8 24.2 3.0 4.7 67.8 0.2 40.0 B5 49.2 27.9 22.3 2.8 4.2 70.6 0.1 42.7 B6 40.0 27.9 39.6 4.4 7.6 48.2 0.3 35.4 B7 45.8 28.0 29.4 3.3 5.3 61.8 0.2 40.0 B8 46.3 27.9 29.2 3.3 5.2 62.1 0.2 40.5 B9 50.9 27.9 31.3 3.3 4.8 60.4 0.2 44.9 B10 47.3 27.9 36.8 3.7 5.7 53.5 0.3 41.7 B11 67.6 27.8 42.4 4.3 10.5 42.6 0.2 62.9 B12 63.2 27.8 31.8 2.8 18.2 47.0 0.1 56.2 B13 44.7 27.6 45.1 4.1 16.0 34.4 0.3 39.3 B14 68.2 27.5 34.3 2.6 18.8 44.2 0.1 62.9 B15 45.7 27.6 39.2 3.8 11.9 44.8 0.2 40.0 B16 49.1 27.6 34.2 3.9 7.8 54.0 0.1 43.1 B17 41.2 27.5 41.4 4.4 12.6 41.4 0.3 36.1 B18 56.6 27.6 31.3 4.0 5.8 58.8 0.1 50.4 B19 50.9 27.5 31.8 3.9 6.5 57.5 0.2 44.8 B20 42.1 27.4 38.1 4.5 9.6 47.5 0.3 36.9 B21 51.4 27.4 28.6 4.3 6.6 60.4 0.2 45.2 B22 42.2 27.3 36.6 4.6 9.5 49.1 0.3 37.0 B23 40.2 27.2 39.2 4.6 9.7 46.2 0.3 35.4 B24 56.0 27.1 24.6 3.6 7.7 63.9 0.2 49.6 B25 42.8 27.5 39.3 4.5 8.3 47.6 0.3 37.7 B26 36.6 27.4 48.8 5.3 10.7 34.9 0.3 32.7 B27 37.9 27.5 43.8 4.8 9.4 41.7 0.3 33.7 B28 43.7 27.6 29.9 3.5 6.1 60.3 0.3 38.1 B29 43.0 27.7 30.5 3.6 6.1 59.5 0.3 37.5 B30 38.5 28.0 50.6 5.4 8.9 34.7 0.5 34.3 B31 42.5 28.2 56.9 4.5 8.6 29.6 0.4 38.6 B32 44.4 28.1 48.5 4.8 13.3 33.2 0.3 39.3 B33 48.3 27.7 23.2 2.8 3.9 69.9 0.2 42.0

4.4.3 Bearwood Road street canyon Bearwood Road was identified as a street canyon, with relatively high buildings either side of a busy road. Dispersion of pollutants is hindered by the buildings in street canyons, increasing roadside concentrations. This area was therefore modelled separately using the

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 49 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

ADMS Roads dispersion model, which has been developed to model these features. Appendix 1 describes how the model was used and the model verification carried out. Figure 24 shows the modelled concentrations for 2011. The modelled concentrations exceed the limit value at hot spots along Bearwood Road, though are otherwise below the limit value on this road link. The modelled concentrations exceed the limit value on the Hagley Road, with highest concentrations at the junction with Bearwood Road. Figure 24 also shows the locations of diffusion tubes in the area; these locations are considered representative of residential exposure. Table 19 shows modelled concentrations at these locations for 2011 and 2016. Table 19 also shows the contribution from each vehicle class as a percentage of the total contribution from local traffic emissions of oxides of nitrogen. Cars are the largest contributor to oxides of nitrogen emissions from local traffic (typically 44%) with buses also making a substantial contribution (typically 33%).

NO 2 concentrations are expected to decrease in future years as the result of improvements in vehicle technology. Table 19 shows modelled concentrations for 2016. The model results indicate that the expected reduction in concentrations is sufficient to achieve the limit value of 40 µg m -3 by 2016 at all of the receptor locations. Figure 24: Modelled nitrogen dioxide concentrations Bearwood Road, 2011

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 50 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

Table 19: Source apportionment of vehicle contributions to nitrogen dioxide concentrations, Bearwood Road Modelled Percentage of traffic contribution to Modelled concentration, NO concentrations -3 Site concentration, x µg m 2011, µg m -3 Cars LGV HGV Buses M/C 2016 2026 C9A 41.4 46.1 11.5 7.2 35.3 38.0 24.1 C9D 36.4 45.5 15.2 7.4 31.9 33.4 21.7 C10A 41.6 47.4 16.6 11.5 24.4 38.0 24.5 C10D 42.1 48.7 17.2 12.2 22.0 38.7 24.8 OA 38.3 44.7 15.1 8.2 32.0 35.2 22.7 OB 37.2 44.6 15.0 8.1 32.3 34.2 22.1 OC 37.7 44.5 15.0 8.0 32.6 34.6 22.4 OD 37.3 44.4 14.9 7.8 32.9 34.3 22.2 OE 37.6 44.4 14.9 7.8 33.0 34.5 22.3 OF 32.3 44.9 14.8 8.0 32.3 30.1 21.0 OG 38.7 44.9 15.1 8.4 31.6 35.4 22.8 OH 35.9 44.6 15.0 8.0 32.4 33.1 21.6 OI 37.8 44.3 14.9 7.7 33.2 34.8 22.5 OJ 37.5 44.2 7.6 33.3 14.8 34.4 22.3

4.4.4 M6 motorway Figure 25 shows the modelled concentrations for 2011 close to the junction of the M6 and the M5 in the area of Wednesbury, Great Barr and Yew Tree in Sandwell. Figure 26 shows modelled concentrations for 2011 close to the junction of the M6 and the A38(M) in Birmingham. These areas are representative of the locations most exposed to the influence of the motorway. The model spatial resolution is 10 m x 10 m near to roads, with wider receptor spacing further from the roads. Modelled concentrations exceed the limit value close to the motorways but fall rapidly with distance from the motorway. Figures 25 and 26 also show the locations of diffusion tubes in the area; these locations are considered representative of residential exposure close to the motorway. Table 20 shows the modelled concentrations at these locations for 2011 and 2016. Table 20 also shows the contribution from each vehicle class as a percentage of the total contribution from traffic emissions in the West Midlands.

Cars make the greatest traffic contribution to NO 2 concentrations (typically 50%) at all the receptors. Heavy goods vehicles also make a substantial contribution (typically 30%) close to the motorways.

NO 2 concentrations are expected to decrease in future years as the result of improvements in vehicle technology. Table 20 shows modelled concentrations for 2016. The model results indicate that the expected reduction in concentrations is sufficient to achieve the limit value of 40 µg m -3 by 2016 at many, though not all of the receptor locations. The model results indicate that the concentration is expected to remain substantially above the limit value at Shelley Drive (B577).

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 51 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

Figure 25: Modelled nitrogen dioxide concentrations M6/M5 junction, 2011

Figure 26: Modelled nitrogen dioxide concentrations M6/A38(M) junction, 2011

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 52 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

Table 20: Source apportionment of vehicle contributions to nitrogen dioxide concentrations, M6 Modelled Percentage of traffic Modelled Modelled background contribution concentration, Site concentration, -3 -3 contribution,2011 µg m 2011, µg m -3 Cars LGV HGV Buses M/C µg m 2016 B577 59.9 23.2 48.1 15.7 32.3 3.6 0.2 53.3 KA 32.8 18.8 48.8 12.2 31.4 7.2 0.4 28.5 KB 39.4 18.7 49.1 12.9 32.4 5.3 0.4 34.0 KC 40.2 18.7 48.7 13.2 32.5 5.2 0.4 34.7 KD 46.2 18.7 47.6 14.5 33.2 4.4 0.4 40.1 KE 41.5 18.8 48.2 13.7 33.1 4.8 0.3 35.8 QA 66.8 18.7 48.6 18.6 30.0 2.6 0.2 60.1 QB 49.4 18.7 49.6 14.9 31.6 3.6 0.3 43.2 QC 43.9 18.7 49.5 14.1 32.0 4.1 0.3 38.1 QD 39.6 18.6 51.7 12.7 30.2 5.0 0.4 34.3 QE 39.9 18.6 55.7 11.5 27.1 5.3 0.4 34.8 SA 46.5 18.7 49.2 14.6 32.1 3.8 0.3 40.5 SB 46.5 18.7 49.2 14.6 32.1 3.8 0.3 40.5 XA 35.0 18.8 49.7 12.6 31.2 6.1 0.4 30.3 XB 36.4 18.8 49.8 12.9 30.8 6.0 0.4 31.5 XC 36.1 18.8 50.3 13.1 29.1 7.2 0.4 31.2 XD 33.8 18.9 51.0 12.7 27.2 8.7 0.4 29.3 XE 41.7 18.8 49.6 14.6 28.6 6.9 0.4 35.8 YC 39.8 18.6 49.2 13.6 32.2 4.7 0.3 34.5 YD 43.9 18.6 49.0 14.4 32.0 4.3 0.3 38.0 YE 36.8 18.3 50.3 13.6 27.0 8.7 0.4 31.6 YF 40.8 18.5 50.1 14.2 28.4 7.0 0.4 35.1 YG 35.1 18.2 53.0 12.7 23.9 9.9 0.5 30.1 ZA 44.0 18.7 48.7 15.1 29.5 6.3 0.3 38.0 ZB 38.9 18.6 48.8 13.0 32.5 5.4 0.3 33.7 ZC 42.9 18.8 49.8 15.3 26.6 8.0 0.4 36.7 ZD 34.0 18.8 50.6 12.8 28.2 8.0 0.4 29.4 ZE 33.7 18.6 50.5 12.2 30.4 6.6 0.3 29.1 ZF 33.4 18.7 51.0 12.0 29.7 6.9 0.4 28.9 ZG 33.5 18.7 51.0 12.0 29.7 6.9 0.4 28.9 ZJ 35.0 18.6 50.5 12.1 30.8 6.3 0.3 30.2 ZK 40.1 19.2 53.5 14.2 21.5 10.6 0.4 34.7 ZL 41.0 19.1 51.6 14.5 23.2 10.4 0.3 35.3 ZM 48.6 19.0 50.9 16.1 22.7 9.9 0.3 42.0 ZN 41.4 18.9 50.8 14.6 24.8 9.5 0.3 35.6 ZO 47.0 19.3 59.0 15.6 14.6 10.5 0.4 41.8 ZP 50.4 19.3 59.6 16.3 13.5 10.2 0.4 45.2 ZQ 35.5 19.3 56.5 13.2 18.8 11.1 0.4 31.1 ZR 36.1 19.3 57.2 13.3 18.0 11.1 0.4 31.7 C3D 48.8 19.3 59.7 16.0 13.5 10.3 0.4 43.6 C3E 32.9 19.3 55.2 12.0 20.6 11.8 0.3 28.7

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 53 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

Modelled Percentage of traffic Modelled Modelled background contribution concentration, Site concentration, -3 -3 contribution,2011 µg m 2011, µg m -3 Cars LGV HGV Buses M/C µg m 2016 FA 30.1 18.9 52.0 10.5 27.5 9.6 0.4 26.2 FB 30.1 18.9 52.0 10.5 27.5 9.6 0.4 26.2 WA 45.1 19.6 44.8 13.7 35.5 5.7 0.3 38.9 WB 43.4 19.5 45.4 14.2 35.4 4.7 0.3 37.4 WC 41.3 19.6 45.3 13.4 35.6 5.3 0.3 35.5 WD 35.3 19.2 46.8 12.6 34.1 6.2 0.3 30.5 WE 33.1 18.9 47.5 12.3 32.9 6.8 0.4 28.6 WF 35.7 19.4 46.4 12.4 34.2 6.7 0.3 30.8 WG 31.0 18.8 49.8 11.6 30.7 7.6 0.3 27.0

4.4.5 A458/A456 inter-urban corridor through Halesowen Figure 27 shows the modelled concentrations for 2011 along the A458/A456 interurban corridor through Halesowen. The model spatial resolution is 10 m x 10 m near to roads, with wider receptor spacing further from the roads. Modelled concentrations exceed the limit value close to the road along Windmill Hill and Drews Holloway. Figure 27 also shows the locations of diffusion tubes in the area; these locations are considered to be of particular interest to the council, although not all these sites are included in the current monitoring network. Table 21 shows the modelled concentrations at these locations for 2011 and 2016. Table 21 also shows the contribution from each vehicle class as a percentage of the total contribution from traffic emissions in the West Midlands.

Cars make the greatest traffic contribution to NO 2 concentrations (typically 50%) at all the receptors. Buses contribute typically 20% of the traffic contribution at these sites.

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 54 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

Figure 27: Modelled nitrogen dioxide concentrations A458/A456 inter-urban corridor through Halesowen

Table 21: Source apportionment of vehicle contributions to nitrogen dioxide concentrations, A458/A456 through Halesowen Modelled Percentage of traffic Modelled Modelled background contribution concentration, Site concentration, -3 -3 contribution,2011 µg m 2011, µg m -3 Cars LGV HGV Buses M/C µg m 2016 3k 23.4 18.4 57.4 7.7 14.9 19.4 0.7 21.0 3a 35.0 18.6 56.8 8.3 14.2 20.1 0.6 31.2 3bx 31.4 18.7 57.7 7.5 13.5 20.7 0.7 28.3 3c 42.1 18.7 58.4 8.3 12.7 20.0 0.6 38.9 3d 39.3 19.1 58.1 8.0 13.0 20.3 0.6 36.2 3e 39.8 19.3 58.2 8.1 12.9 20.3 0.6 36.8 3g 37.5 19.6 57.9 7.9 13.1 20.4 0.6 34.5 3gx 37.7 19.7 57.9 7.9 13.1 20.5 0.6 34.7 3r-t 34.1 20.0 57.6 7.7 13.5 20.6 0.7 30.8 D15 29.4 19.4 51.7 10.0 18.7 19.0 0.5 26.4 15a 32.0 19.4 51.2 10.5 19.1 18.7 0.5 28.8 15b 36.4 19.0 53.0 9.5 15.4 21.6 0.6 32.7

4.4.6 4M bus route Figure 28 shows the modelled concentrations for 2011 along the 4M bus route through West Bromwich. The model spatial resolution is 10 m x 10 m near to roads, with wider receptor spacing further from the roads. Modelled concentrations exceed the limit value close to the road at many locations, particularly close to the bus station.

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 55 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

Figure 29 shows the modelled concentrations for 2011 along the 4M bus route through Blackheath. Modelled concentrations exceed the limit value close to the A4034 Oldbury Road, A4100 High Street and in Blackheath town centre. Figure 30 shows the modelled concentrations for 2011 along the 4M bus route through Quarry Bank. Modelled concentrations exceed the limit value on parts of A4100 Quarry Bank High Street and A4036 towards Merry Hill. Figures 28-30 also show the locations of diffusion tubes in the area; these locations are considered to be of particular interest to the council, although not all these sites are included in the current monitoring network. Table 22 shows modelled concentrations at these locations for 2011 and 2016. Table 22 also shows the contribution from each vehicle class as a percentage of the total contribution from traffic emissions in the West Midlands.

Buses make the greatest traffic contribution to NO 2 concentrations (typically 65%) at receptors close to the 4M bus route through West Bromwich. At other locations, cars make the largest contribution although buses also make a substantial contribution in the centre of Blackheath and through Quarry Bank. Figure 28: Modelled nitrogen dioxide concentrations, 2011 4M bus route through West Bromwich

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 56 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

Figure 29: Modelled nitrogen dioxide concentrations, 2011 4M bus route through Blackheath

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 57 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

Figure 30: Modelled nitrogen dioxide concentrations, 2011 4M bus route through Quarry Bank

Table 22: Source apportionment of vehicle contributions to nitrogen dioxide concentrations, 4M bus route through West Bromwich, Blackheath and Quarry Bank Modelled Percentage of traffic Modelled Modelled background contribution concentration, Site concentration, - -3 contribution,2011 µg m 2011, µg m -3 Cars LGV HGV Buses M/C µg m 2016 D30 33.6 20.0 61.4 5.9 5.7 26.3 0.7 28.1 30dx 37.4 20.0 61.9 6.0 5.3 26.2 0.7 31.0 30eX 33.9 19.9 61.8 5.7 5.6 26.2 0.7 28.4 30g 39.1 19.9 62.2 5.8 5.1 26.2 0.7 32.5 30m 31.5 20.0 61.4 5.8 6.0 26.2 0.7 26.6 30w 37.7 20.0 72.3 6.6 7.5 13.0 0.5 34.8 30t 24.1 20.0 61.8 5.9 8.4 23.2 0.7 21.6 C11A 44.2 20.4 41.0 6.4 8.0 44.3 0.3 37.7 C11D 39.8 20.5 49.9 7.6 10.6 31.5 0.4 34.0 C11E 51.0 20.4 44.9 6.5 7.1 41.2 0.3 42.3 C12A 44.5 22.2 62.1 11.6 13.1 12.6 0.5 41.8 C12D 52.4 22.3 61.7 11.8 12.9 13.1 0.5 49.0 C12E 38.8 22.5 61.3 9.8 14.0 14.3 0.6 35.0 HA 53.4 22.8 28.0 7.2 13.5 51.1 0.2 41.2 LA 34.2 22.5 43.9 8.9 19.5 27.4 0.3 29.3 LB 34.2 22.5 43.9 8.9 19.5 27.4 0.3 29.3 LC 34.2 22.5 43.9 8.9 19.5 27.4 0.3 29.3 LD 34.2 22.5 43.9 8.9 19.5 27.4 0.3 29.3

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 58 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

Modelled Percentage of traffic Modelled Modelled background contribution concentration, Site concentration, - -3 contribution,2011 µg m 2011, µg m -3 Cars LGV HGV Buses M/C µg m 2016 SU 42.4 22.0 38.2 7.2 15.2 39.2 0.2 36.8 C1A 44.6 22.2 49.2 11.8 23.0 15.8 0.3 46.0 PS1A 47.8 22.8 20.1 5.0 8.8 65.9 0.1 40.5 PS1B 47.8 22.8 20.1 5.0 8.8 65.9 0.1 40.5 PS2A 47.0 22.7 20.4 5.0 9.1 65.3 0.1 39.9 PS2B 47.0 22.7 20.4 5.0 9.1 65.3 0.1 39.9 N1A 57.4 27.8 33.7 12.8 14.6 38.8 0.2 50.9 N1B 58.7 27.9 40.4 13.9 15.6 29.8 0.2 51.2 N1C 38.3 27.9 48.0 11.6 20.2 19.9 0.4 33.3 EA 48.1 21.8 52.0 12.1 27.5 8.2 0.3 38.2 EB 59.5 22.2 52.3 13.6 26.6 7.3 0.2 42.2 EC 42.2 22.7 54.7 12.7 17.1 15.1 0.3 35.0 ED 63.7 23.5 19.3 6.9 9.0 64.7 0.1 53.9 EE 39.4 23.7 34.7 8.8 19.2 37.0 0.3 32.6 EF 56.6 25.4 22.8 6.8 8.0 62.2 0.1 50.6 EG 22.9 18.2 64.1 8.8 11.6 14.6 0.9 21.6 EH 42.5 25.0 50.3 13.2 21.5 14.7 0.3 34.0 EI 43.5 25.7 50.5 12.9 22.4 13.8 0.4 35.2

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 59 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

4.4.7 A459/A457 inter-urban corridor Figure 31 shows the modelled concentrations for 2011 along the A459/A457 inter-urban corridor through Sedgley. The model spatial resolution is 10 m x 10 m near to roads, with wider receptor spacing further from the roads. Modelled concentrations exceed the limit value close to the road on parts of Sedgley High Street. Figure 32 shows the modelled concentrations for 2011 along the A459/A457 inter-urban corridor through Oldbury. Modelled concentrations exceed the limit value at many locations along this route with particularly high concentrations close to the M5 motorway. Fig. 28 also shows part of the 4M bus route through Oldbury. Modelled concentrations exceed the limit value on Bromford Road near to Sandwell and Dudley railway station. Figures 31 and 32 also show the locations of diffusion tubes in the area; these locations are considered to be of particular interest to the council, although not all these sites are included in the current monitoring network. Table 23 shows modelled concentrations at these locations for 2011 and 2016. Table 23 also shows the contribution from each vehicle class as a percentage of the total contribution from traffic emissions in the West Midlands.

Cars make the greatest traffic contribution to NO 2 concentrations (typically 50%) at all the receptors. Heavy goods vehicles also make a substantial contribution (typically 25%) close to the M5 motorway. Buses make a substantial contribution (typically 20-25%) through Sedgley and on Dudley Road towards Oldbury.

NO 2 concentrations are expected to decrease in future years as the result of improvements in vehicle technology. Table 23 shows modelled concentrations for 2016. The model results indicate that the expected reduction in concentrations is not sufficient to achieve the limit value of 40 µg m -3 by 2016 at many receptor locations. Figure 31: Modelled nitrogen dioxide concentrations, 2011 A459/457 inter-urban corridor through Sedgley

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 60 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

Figure 32: Modelled nitrogen dioxide concentrations, 2011 A459/457 inter-urban corridor through Oldbury

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 61 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

Table 23: Source apportionment of vehicle contributions to nitrogen dioxide concentrations, A459/A457 inter-urban corridor through Sedgley and Oldbury Modelled Modelled Modelled Percentage of traffic background concentration, Site concentration, contribution -3 -3 contribution,2011 µg m 2011, µg m -3 µg m Cars LGV HGV Buses M/C 2016 D32 30.5 17.6 64.4 9.0 5.3 20.7 0.5 27.4 32b 32.7 17.6 64.6 9.2 5.0 20.7 0.5 29.5 32e 32.9 17.6 62.9 8.7 4.8 23.0 0.6 29.7 32f 40.2 17.6 66.1 7.7 3.7 21.9 0.6 36.6 32r 31.3 17.6 69.9 6.7 4.7 18.0 0.6 28.1 BA 64.1 27.9 51.3 18.4 24.9 5.1 0.3 56.2 BB 54.9 27.8 53.6 15.8 23.2 7.0 0.3 47.6 BC 60.8 27.7 55.1 16.5 20.6 7.5 0.3 52.9 BD 52.6 27.6 54.9 14.9 21.8 8.1 0.3 45.5 BDQ 51.2 27.5 55.1 14.6 21.8 8.3 0.3 44.4 BE 49.3 27.6 54.6 14.4 22.4 8.3 0.3 42.6 BF 55.0 27.7 54.0 15.7 22.7 7.3 0.3 47.6 BG 58.7 27.9 52.3 17.0 24.4 5.9 0.3 51.1 BH 40.7 27.7 52.5 13.0 25.9 8.1 0.4 35.6 BI 42.8 27.7 52.1 13.7 26.5 7.3 0.4 37.3 BK 48.9 27.9 50.8 15.3 27.9 5.6 0.4 42.5 BM 43.7 28.0 51.8 14.0 25.8 8.1 0.4 38.1 BN 42.5 28.1 51.4 13.7 25.9 8.5 0.4 37.3 BO 46.2 27.5 54.8 13.5 22.6 8.8 0.4 40.5 BP 48.0 27.5 54.6 13.9 22.5 8.7 0.4 42.2 BR 55.8 27.7 54.2 15.8 22.3 7.4 0.3 48.4 BS 47.5 27.7 53.5 14.3 24.0 7.8 0.4 41.1 S3N 40.1 27.8 51.6 12.7 24.1 11.2 0.4 35.0 S5N 43.1 28.1 52.0 13.7 25.8 8.0 0.4 37.6 C5A 50.1 27.7 46.9 15.0 21.1 16.8 0.3 43.1 C5D 42.0 27.9 46.5 14.1 23.2 15.9 0.4 36.6 C5E 56.8 27.8 42.4 18.9 23.6 14.8 0.3 50.5 C6A 49.3 28.2 55.1 14.0 20.4 10.1 0.4 43.1 C6D 47.0 28.2 54.7 13.8 21.4 9.7 0.3 41.1 C6E 51.1 28.1 53.7 14.7 21.8 9.4 0.3 44.8 C7A 45.9 25.7 47.8 11.7 14.0 26.0 0.5 40.0 C7D 58.2 25.7 47.9 13.3 12.2 26.2 0.4 51.1 C7E 41.4 25.6 48.2 11.2 14.6 25.5 0.6 36.0 C7F 55.1 25.3 47.5 13.2 12.7 26.2 0.4 48.1 C7G 47.6 24.8 48.0 12.1 13.4 26.1 0.5 41.1 C7H 42.2 25.8 48.7 11.0 14.4 25.5 0.5 36.5 C7I 39.6 25.9 49.1 10.7 15.2 24.4 0.6 34.4

4.4.8 A454 inter-urban corridor Figure 33 shows the modelled concentrations for 2011 along the A454 inter-urban corridor west of Walsall. Data for 2012 show higher concentrations and an exceedance of the

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 62 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study objective level in Wolverhampton which is reported in the sequel report (reference WP1a). The model spatial resolution is 10 m x 10 m near to roads, with wider receptor spacing further from the roads. Modelled concentrations exceed the limit value close to the A454 and near to the M6 motorway. Figure 33 also shows the locations of diffusion tubes in the area; these locations are considered to be of particular interest to the Walsall Council, although not all these sites are included in the current monitoring network. Table 24 shows modelled concentrations at these locations for 2011 and 2016. Table 24 also shows the contribution from each vehicle class as a percentage of the total contribution from traffic emissions in the West Midlands.

Cars make the greatest traffic contribution to NO 2 concentrations (typically 50%) at all the receptors. Heavy goods vehicles also make a substantial contribution (typically >25%).

NO 2 concentrations are expected to decrease in future years as the result of improvements in vehicle technology. Table 24 shows modelled concentrations for 2016. The model results indicate that the expected reduction in concentrations is sufficient to achieve the limit value of 40 µg m -3 by 2016 at these receptor locations. Figure 33: Modelled nitrogen dioxide concentrations, 2011 A454 inter-urban corridor west of Walsall

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 63 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

Table 24: Source apportionment of vehicle contributions to nitrogen dioxide concentrations, A454 inter-urban corridor west of Walsall Modelled Modelled Modelled Percentage of traffic background concentration, Site concentration, contribution -3 -3 contribution,2011 µg m 2011, µg m -3 µg m Cars LGV HGV Buses M/C 2016 9 Bentley Drive 31.5 21.8 50.3 11.1 29.1 9.1 0.4 27.6 114 Bentley Drive 29.3 22.0 51.6 10.5 28.2 9.3 0.4 26.0 28 Ely Road 29.8 20.7 48.5 11.4 31.8 8.0 0.3 26.3 8 Wolverhampton 43.6 22.1 46.4 13.7 26.4 10.6 2.9 36.6 Road Manor Court 37.1 23.5 50.9 11.7 27.4 9.7 0.3 32.3

4.4.9 Ball Hill corridor Figure 34 shows the modelled concentrations for 2011 along lower part of the Ball Hill inter- urban corridor in Coventry. The model spatial resolution is 10 m x 10 m near to roads, with wider receptor spacing further from the roads. Modelled concentrations exceed the limit value close to parts of the road. Figure 34 also shows the locations of diffusion tubes in the area; these locations are considered to be of particular interest to Coventry City Council, although not all these sites are included in the current monitoring network. Table 25 shows modelled concentrations at these locations for 2011 and 2016. Table 25 also shows the contribution from each vehicle class as a percentage of the total contribution from traffic emissions in the West Midlands.

Cars make the greatest traffic contribution to NO 2 concentrations (typically 65%) at all the receptors. Buses also make a substantial contribution (typically 20%). Heavy goods vehicles do not make a large contribution.

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 64 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

Figure 34: Modelled nitrogen dioxide concentrations, 2011 Ball Hill corridor

Table 25: Source apportionment of vehicle contributions to nitrogen dioxide concentrations, Ball Hill corridor Modelled Percentage of traffic Modelled Modelled background contribution concentration, Site concentration, -3 -3 contribution,2011 µg m 2011, µg m -3 Cars LGV HGV Buses M/C µg m 2016 BH1 65.8 19.4 60.4 9.6 2.7 26.9 0.3 66.0 BH2a 33.1 19.2 66.1 6.8 6.9 19.6 0.6 30.8 BH4 37.4 19.0 66.8 7.1 6.4 19.0 0.6 34.7 BH6 40.7 19.2 67.1 7.0 6.1 19.3 0.5 38.6 BH8 37.4 18.9 66.9 7.2 6.6 18.8 0.6 34.4 BH9 38.0 18.7 66.9 7.2 6.5 18.7 0.6 34.9 BH10 32.6 19.1 66.2 6.7 6.9 19.6 0.5 30.2

4.4.10 A459 inter-urban corridor Figure 35 shows the modelled concentrations for 2011 along the A459 inter-urban corridor through Netherton. The model spatial resolution is 10 m x 10 m near to roads, with wider receptor spacing further from the roads. Modelled concentrations exceed the limit value close to the road. Figure 35 also shows the locations of diffusion tubes in the area; these locations are considered to be of particular interest to the council, although not all these sites are included in the current monitoring network. Table 26 shows modelled concentrations at these locations for 2011 and 2016. Table 26 also shows the contribution from each vehicle class as a percentage of the total contribution from traffic emissions in the West Midlands.

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 65 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

Cars make the greatest traffic contribution to NO 2 concentrations (typically 60%) at all the receptors. Buses also make a substantial contribution (typically 25%). Heavy goods vehicles do not make a large contribution. Figure 35: Modelled nitrogen dioxide concentrations, 2011 A459 inter-urban corridor

Table 26: Source apportionment of vehicle contributions to nitrogen dioxide concentrations, A459 inter-urban corridor through Netherton Modelled Percentage of traffic Modelled Modelled background contribution concentration, Site concentration, -3 -3 contribution,2011 µg m 2011, µg m -3 Cars LGV HGV Buses M/C µg m 2016 27f 33.1 21.2 61.0 6.4 7.3 24.6 0.6 29.8 27b 43.4 20.9 61.8 6.9 6.3 24.5 0.5 40.4 27c 41.2 21.1 61.7 6.8 6.4 24.5 0.6 36.8 27g 38.9 21.0 61.5 6.7 6.7 24.5 0.6 34.9 27gX 38.4 21.0 61.5 6.7 6.7 24.5 0.6 34.4 27j 38.2 21.0 61.4 6.7 6.7 24.5 0.6 34.2 27k 42.7 21.1 61.9 6.9 6.3 24.4 0.6 38.3 27n 38.6 20.9 61.3 6.7 6.7 24.6 0.6 35.2 27p 40.4 21.1 61.3 7.0 6.7 24.4 0.6 36.7 27t 46.9 21.1 62.0 7.3 6.1 24.0 0.5 43.1 27q 27.9 21.2 61.3 6.3 8.6 23.1 0.8 25.1 D64 40.5 21.8 75.6 6.9 9.0 7.8 0.6 37.6

4.5 Emission reduction priorities Section 4 of this report describes the development of a dispersion model to assess the impacts of emission abatement measures on air quality in the West Midlands. The model

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 66 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

has been used to assess the relative contributions from specific vehicle classes to NO 2 concentrations and thus to identify the major contributors. The major contributors provide the largest scope for emission reductions-either by reducing vehicle numbers or by improved emissions abatement measures. Table 27 shows the areas of concern, based on 2011 data, where reductions from specific vehicle types are likely to be most effective based on the dispersion modelling analysis. It shows the emission reduction priorities in each of the areas of concern. Data for 2012 show higher concentrations and an exceedance of the objective level in Wolverhampton and Sandwell which are reported in the sequel report (reference WP1a). Table 27: Emission reduction priorities Scenario Local Area of concern Cars HGV Buses study area Authority Broad Street 1 2 Children’s hospital 1 Birmingham Corporation Street 2 1 Birmingham city centre Priory Queensway 2 1 Masshouse Lane 2 1 Moor Street Queensway 2 1 Bearwood Sandwell Bearwood Road 1 2 Road Birmingham Shelley Drive 1 2 Walsall J7 to J10 north 1 2 M6/M6 Toll Great Barr 1 2 Sandwell Yew Tree 1 2 A458/A456 Drews Holloway/Windmill Hill, Halesowen 1 2 inter-urban Dudley Stourbridge Road, Halesowen 1 2= 2= corridor West Bromwich town centre 2 1 Bromford Road 1 2 Sandwell Oldbury Road 1 2 4M bus route Blackheath town centre 1 2 Blackheath High Street 1 2= 2= Dudley Quarry Bank High Street 1 2 Dudley Sedgley 1 2 A459/A457 Dudley Road 1 2 inter-urban Sandwell corridor Oldbury Ringway 1 2 Birmingham Road 1 2 A454 inter- Walsall Wolverhampton Road 1 2 urban corridor Ball Hill Coventry Ball Hill 1 2 A459 Inter- Dudley Netherton 1 2 urban corridor

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 67 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

5 Source apportionment of measured concentrations

5.1 Introduction

This section considers the source apportionment of the contribution to NO 2 concentrations from traffic on individual roads at locations where diffusion tubes have measured particularly high concentrations. Many of these locations are affected by features that locally increase the measured concentrations. These include: • Steep hills • Pedestrian crossings • Traffic light junctions • Restricted dispersion from street canyons • Bus stops • Taxi ranks • Congestion caused by on-street parking The rates of emission of oxides of nitrogen from selected road links were calculated using Defra’s Emission Factor Toolkit. The toolkit provides details of the proportion of emissions from specific vehicle categories. Total oxides of nitrogen emissions include nitric oxide and NO 2. The rates of emission of primary nitrogen dioxide from the selected road links were calculated based on primary nitrogen dioxide factors provided by the National Atmospheric Emission Inventory.

In practice, a proportion of the nitric oxide emitted from vehicles is converted to NO 2 by reactions with ozone in the atmosphere and this contributes to roadside concentrations as well as the primary NO 2. The extent of the conversion depends on several factors including the regional background ozone and oxides of nitrogen concentrations. Defra’s NO x to NO 2 converter was used to estimate the extent of this conversion at diffusion tube sites in order to estimate the overall source apportionment. The NO x to NO 2 converter provides appropriate regional background concentrations.

5.2 Selected roads Table 28 shows the selected main road links in each of the areas of concern. It identifies the diffusion tubes in each area where the highest concentrations were measured at locations representative of public exposure based on 2011 data. It also lists the local features that may contribute to high concentrations at each location. Data for 2012 show higher concentrations and an exceedance of the objective level in Wolverhampton which is reported in the sequel report (reference WP1a).

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 68 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

Table 28: Selected roads Measured nitrogen Area of Diffusio Road Location Local features dioxide concern n tube concentratio n, µg m -3 Birmingham city A38 Children’s Hospital 621 Complex junction 60 centre Street canyon, Bearwood Road A4030 Bearwood Road OD pedestrian crossing, bus 48.9 stop M6 Shelley Drive 577 50

M6 M6 Great Barr KB 44

M6 Yew Tree WA 44.8

A458 Windmill Hill 3a Steep hill 50.6 40.7 A458/A456 A458 Stourbridge Road 15b T junction Multi-lane queuing at A456 Hagley Road C10A 55.5 traffic light junction Queuing at traffic light A4034 Bromford Road C5E 49 junction Multi-lane queuing at A4034 Oldbury Road UC 46.9 traffic light junction Traffic light junction, A4100 Blackheath High Street C12A 54.4 4M bus route pedestrian crossing On- street parking, bus Quarry Bank High stop, pedestrian A4100 30 59.2 Street crossing, steep hill

Bus stops, pedestrian A457 Dudley Street, Sedgley 32 40.7 crossing, taxi rank A459 High Street Sedgley 32f Road junction 43.3

A459/A457 A457 Dudley Road, Oldbury C7F Bus stops 56.7

A457 Oldbury Ringway C6E 51.2 A457 Birmingham Road BE Pedestrian crossing 57 8 Wolverha A454 A454 Wolverhampton Road Traffic light junction 41 mpton Road Ball Hill A4600 Ball Hill BH2a Steep hill, bus stops 48.7 Halesowen Road Steep hill, pedestrian A459 A459 27gX 65.6 Netherton crossing

5.3 Road traffic Table 29 shows the AADT flows for the selected roads taken from the 2011 DfT manual counts. It also shows the percentage of each of the main vehicle class in the vehicle mix. Cars and light goods vehicles make up the largest proportions of the vehicles. Table 29 also shows the estimated average speed in the region of the diffusion tubes, taking into account the PRISM model estimates and the local features identified in Table 28.

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 69 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

Table 29: Annual average daily traffic flows, 2011 DfT manual counts Road Percentage of traffic flow Speed, Road Location AADT type Cars LGV Rigid Artic Bus&Coach M/C kph A38 Children’s Hospital Urban 86372 86.2 10.9 1.1 0.4 0.7 0.7 50 A4030 Bearwood Road Urban 11957 84.1 11.5 0.8 0.1 3.1 0.4 20 M6 Shelley Drive Motorway 129144 69.1 17.4 3.8 9.0 0.3 0.3 95 M6 Great Barr Motorway 129144 69.1 17.4 3.8 9.0 0.3 0.3 79 M6 Yew Tree Motorway 135114 67.6 18.3 2.4 11.0 0.4 0.3 79 A458 Windmill Hll Urban 17929 82.6 10.3 3.3 0.8 2.0 0.9 20 A458 Stourbridge Road Urban 17929 82.6 10.3 3.3 0.8 2.0 0.9 52 A456 Hagley Road Urban 33672 83.4 12.4 1.3 0.3 2.0 0.8 20 A4034 Bromford Road Urban 12192 81.9 11.6 3.3 0.3 2.3 0.5 20 A4034 Oldbury Road Urban 21059 74.5 17.2 4.4 1.5 1.8 0.6 20 A4100 Blackheath High Street Urban 12377 76.6 16.3 4.2 0.9 1.3 0.8 20 A4100 Quarry Bank High Street Urban 15329 80.2 13.8 2.3 0.4 2.4 1.0 30 A457 Dudley Street, Sedgley Urban 16221 81.3 14.9 1.0 0.3 1.9 0.7 20 A459 High Street Sedgley Urban 17432 81.1 15.2 1.5 0.3 1.2 0.7 30 A457 Dudley Road, Oldbury Urban 16825 76.1 16.1 2.4 1.3 3.2 0.8 30 A457 Oldbury Ringway Urban 29766 82.0 12.8 2.7 0.7 1.3 0.6 55 A457 Birmingham Road Urban 27740 81.4 13.3 3.2 0.9 0.8 0.5 55 A454 Wolverhampton Road Urban 21055 81.0 12.6 2.8 2.1 1.1 0.4 30 A4600 Ball Hill Urban 19299 87.9 7.9 1.3 0.2 1.8 0.8 30 A459 Halesowen Road Netherton Urban 12955 76.4 17.1 2.6 1.0 2.2 0.8 20 M/C Motorcycle

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 70 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

5.4 Emissions The emissions rates of oxides of nitrogen from road vehicles on each road link for 2011 were estimated using Defra’s Emission Factor toolkit (EFT v5.2c). Table 30 shows the calculated emission rate and the proportion of oxides of nitrogen emitted by the main categories of vehicle. Cars and LGVs make substantial contributions to oxides of nitrogen emissions on all the roads. HGVs also make substantial contributions, particularly on the motorway links. Data for 2012 show higher concentrations and an exceedance of the objective level in Wolverhampton which is reported in the sequel report (reference WP1a). Table 30: Source apportionment of oxides of nitrogen emissions Percentage of emissions Emission Location rate, Petrol Diesel Petrol Diesel Rigid Artic Bus & M/C g km -1 s-1 Cars Cars LGV LGV HGV HGV Coac h A38 Childrens 0.434 19% 39% 1% 18% 10% 5% 9% 0% Hospital Bearwood Road 0.117 12% 29% 0% 14% 7% 1% 37% 0% Shelley Drive 1.262 7% 23% 1% 16% 14% 37% 1% 0% Great Barr 1.232 7% 20% 0% 15% 15% 41% 2% 0% Yew Tree 1.343 7% 19% 1% 15% 9% 48% 2% 0% Windmill Hill 0.202 10% 25% 0% 11% 24% 9% 21% 0% Stourbridge Road 0.121 14% 27% 0% 12% 22% 7% 17% 0% Hagley Road 0.308 13% 31% 0% 16% 11% 4% 25% 0% Bromford Road 0.135 10% 25% 0% 12% 24% 4% 24% 0% Oldbury Road 0.277 8% 19% 0% 15% 27% 14% 16% 0% Blackheath High 0.144 9% 23% 0% 16% 29% 9% 13% 0% Street Quarry Bank High 0.132 12% 27% 0% 16% 16% 4% 24% 0% Street Dudley Street, 0.146 12% 31% 0% 19% 9% 4% 24% 0% Sedgley High Street 0.125 14% 33% 0% 21% 13% 4% 15% 0% Sedgley Dudley Road, 0.173 9% 21% 0% 16% 15% 12% 27% 0% Oldbury Oldbury Ringway 0.180 15% 30% 1% 17% 19% 7% 12% 0% Birmingham Road 0.169 15% 29% 1% 17% 23% 8% 7% 0% Wolverhampton 0.195 11% 25% 0% 14% 19% 21% 10% 0% Road Ball Hill 0.136 16% 36% 0% 11% 12% 3% 22% 0% Halesowen Road 0.150 9% 23% 0% 17% 18% 10% 22% 0% Netherton

Total oxides of nitrogen emissions emitted from motor vehicles include two main species: nitric oxide and NO 2. Some of the nitric oxide emitted reacts in the atmosphere with ozone to create NO 2, but the proportion of the oxides of nitrogen emitted as primary NO 2 has a substantial effect on roadside concentrations of NO2. Different vehicle types emit different proportions of oxides of nitrogen as NO 2. Table 31 lists National Atmospheric Emission Inventory estimates of the proportion emitted as NO2 (f NO2 ) for key vehicle categories for 2011. Diesel cars and diesel LGVs have relatively high f NO2 values and petrol cars have low values. Table 32 shows the source apportionment of primary NO 2 emissions. Diesel light duty vehicles (cars and LGVs) provide most of the primary NO 2 emissions on each road link.

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 71 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

Table 31: Primary nitrogen dioxide factors, 2011

Category fNO2 Petrol cars 0.031409 Diesel cars 0.420291 Petrol LGVs 0.0338 Diesel LGVs 0.445393 Rigid HGVs 0.125281 Artic HGVs 0.119416 Buses and coaches 0.124797 Motorcycles 0.04

Table 32: Source apportionment of primary nitrogen dioxide emissions Percentage of emissions Emission Location rate, Petrol Diesel Petrol Diesel Rigid Artic Bus & M/C g km -1 s-1 Cars Cars LGV LGV HGV HGV Coac h A38 Childrens 0.121 2% 59% 0% 28% 5% 2% 4% 0% Hospital Bearwood Road 0.029 2% 51% 0% 25% 3% 0% 19% 0% Shelley Drive 0.296 1% 40% 0% 31% 8% 19% 1% 0% Great Barr 0.273 1% 38% 0% 29% 8% 22% 1% 0% Yew Tree 0.293 1% 36% 0% 30% 5% 26% 1% 0% Windmill Hill 0.045 1% 47% 0% 21% 13% 5% 12% 0% Stourbridge Road 0.028 2% 50% 0% 23% 12% 4% 9% 0% Hagley Road 0.079 2% 51% 0% 28% 5% 2% 12% 0% Bromford Road 0.031 1% 46% 0% 24% 13% 2% 13% 0% Oldbury Road 0.062 1% 37% 0% 31% 15% 8% 9% 0% Blackheath High 0.034 1% 40% 0% 31% 16% 5% 7% 0% Street Quarry Bank High 0.032 2% 46% 0% 30% 8% 2% 12% 0% Street Dudley Street, 0.039 1% 49% 0% 32% 4% 2% 11% 0% Sedgley High Street 0.034 2% 50% 0% 35% 6% 2% 7% 0% Sedgley Dudley Road, 0.040 1% 39% 0% 31% 8% 6% 15% 0% Oldbury Oldbury Ringway 0.045 2% 50% 0% 30% 10% 3% 6% 0% Birmingham Road 0.043 2% 49% 0% 30% 11% 4% 4% 0% Wolverhampton 0.045 1% 46% 0% 26% 10% 11% 5% 0% Road Ball Hill 0.034 2% 60% 0% 20% 6% 1% 11% 0% Halesowen Road 0.036 1% 40% 0% 32% 9% 5% 12% 0% Netherton

5.5 Overall source apportionment

Defra’s NO x to NO 2 converter allows the user to predict annual mean nitrogen dioxide concentrations given: • Background oxides of nitrogen concentration

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 72 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

• Primary NO 2 factor for vehicle mix • Estimates of regional background ozone and oxides of nitrogen concentrations • Road contribution to oxides of nitrogen concentrations

The NOx to NO 2 converter includes a database of regional background concentrations selectable on the basis of the year and the local authority. Regional background concentrations for Birmingham for 2011 were used for this assessment. Data for 2012 shows higher concentrations and an exceedance of the objective level in Wolverhampton which is reported in the sequel report (reference WP1a). Background oxides of nitrogen concentrations were determined for each diffusion tube site from Defra’s background map for 2011. The contribution provided by the map from primary roads or motorways (as appropriate) within the 1 km square containing the diffusion tube was removed from the total background concentration in order to prevent double counting. The industrial contribution provided by the background map was also removed where there was a large local source of emission (Oldbury). Note that this background concentration differs from that used for dispersion modelling, which excluded the contribution from all roads in the West Midlands.

The primary NO 2 factor for each road was calculated from Tables 30 and 32. The initial road contribution to oxides of nitrogen concentrations was estimated by trial and error such that the predicted annual mean NO 2 concentration matched the measured concentration. The contribution from each vehicle category to oxides of nitrogen concentrations was then estimated pro-rata on the basis of the proportion of emissions. The NO x to NO 2 converter was then used to estimate the concentration of NO 2 with the contribution from each vehicle category removed in turn. The primary NO 2 factor was adjusted to take account of the change in the vehicle mix. Table 33 shows the calculated NO 2 concentrations with each of the vehicle categories removed in turn. Table 33 indicates that removing vehicle emissions from specific road types (primary roads or motorway as appropriate) within the 1 km square containing the diffusion tube is sufficient to reduce the concentration below the limit value of 40 µg m -3 for most of the locations considered. Localised measures are likely to be appropriate in these locations. There are however some locations (A38 Children’s hospital, Bromford Road, Oldbury Ringway, Birmingham Road) where localised traffic emission reduction measures are not sufficient and it may be necessary to reduce emissions over a wider area or from other sources of emission.

Table 33 indicates that reducing emissions from a single vehicle category is generally not sufficient to reduce concentrations below the limit value. For example, eliminating emissions from buses would only achieve the objective at Stourbridge Road and Dudley Street, Sedgley - two sites where the measured concentration is only slightly above the limit value. Reducing HGV emissions may be effective in eliminating exceedence of the limit value close to the M6 motorway.

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 73 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

Table 33: Effect of removing vehicle emissions on measured concentrations Nitrogen dioxide concentration, µg m -3 Location -Petrol -Diesel -Petrol -Diesel - Rigid - Artic -Bus & Measured -M/C -All cars Cars LGV LGV HGV HGV Coach A38 Childrens 60 58.3 53.2 60.0 56.8 58.9 59.5 59.1 60.0 44.8 Hospital Bearwood 48.9 47.6 43.0 48.9 46.1 48.0 48.8 43.6 48.9 31.1 Road Shelley 50 49.3 46.1 49.9 47.1 48.3 45.6 49.8 50.0 35.2 Drive Great Barr 44 43.4 41.1 43.9 41.8 42.4 39.6 43.8 44.0 31.4 Yew Tree 44.8 44.3 42.2 44.8 42.7 43.9 39.9 44.6 44.8 32.8 Windmill 50.6 49.3 44.6 50.6 48.0 46.9 49.3 47.3 50.6 29.9 Hill Stourbridge 40.7 39.5 37.0 40.7 39.0 38.5 40.0 39.0 40.7 28.7 Road Hagley 55.5 53.8 46.9 55.5 51.0 53.6 54.9 51.1 55.5 31.1 Road Bromford 49 48.7 47.9 49.0 48.5 48.3 48.9 48.3 49.0 45.5 Road Oldbury 46.9 46.4 44.9 46.9 45.3 44.9 45.8 45.7 46.9 38.0 Road Blackheath 54.4 53.3 49.1 54.4 50.4 49.9 53.1 52.5 54.4 34.2 High Street Quarry Bank High 59.2 57.5 50.1 59.2 53.5 56.0 58.5 54.3 59.2 29.7 Street Dudley Street, 40.7 39.3 35.5 40.7 37.4 39.7 40.3 37.6 40.7 25.2 Sedgley High Street 43.3 41.6 36.9 43.2 39.0 41.6 42.8 41.2 43.3 25.2 Sedgley Dudley Road, 56.7 55.6 51.4 56.7 52.6 54.4 55.0 52.5 56.7 35.6 Oldbury Oldbury 51.2 50.6 49.2 51.2 50.1 50.3 50.9 50.6 51.2 45.5 Ringway Birmingha 57 55.9 53.0 56.9 54.6 55.0 56.3 56.3 57.0 45.5 m Road Wolverham 41 40.8 40.2 41.0 40.6 40.6 40.5 40.8 41.0 38.4 pton Road Ball Hill 48.7 46.7 40.8 48.7 46.1 47.0 48.3 45.4 48.7 28.9 Halesowen Road 65.6 64.3 56.8 65.6 58.6 61.8 63.5 60.8 65.6 32.4 Netherton

Table 34 shows source apportionment of the measured concentrations. The percentage contribution from each vehicle class was calculated as the incremental change (with-without) resulting from the removal of that category as a percentage of the sum of the increments. (Note that the sum of the increments does not equal the change corresponding to the removal of all road vehicles because of the non-linearity of the NO x to NO 2 converter.) Examination of Table 34 indicates that in most cases diesel cars make the largest contribution, with a substantial contribution from diesel light goods vehicles. There are notable exceptions where the rank order is different: • Buses make the second largest contribution on Bearwood Road

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 74 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

• Articulated HGVs make the largest contribution near to the M6 motorway (Shelley Drive, Great Barr, Yew Tree) • Rigid HGVs and buses make substantial contributions on the A458/A456 route (Windmill Hill, Stourbridge Road) • Rigid HGVs make the second largest contribution on parts of the 4M bus route (Bromford Road, Oldbury Road, Blackheath High Street) • Buses make the second largest contribution on Dudley Road, Oldbury • Articulated HGVs make the second largest contribution on the A454 Wolverhampton Road • Buses make the second largest contribution on Ball Hill Table 34: Source apportionment of the traffic contribution to measured concentrations Percentage contribution Location -Petrol -Diesel -Petrol -Diesel - Rigid - Artic -Bus & -M/C cars Cars LGV LGV HGV HGV Coach A38 Childrens 12.2 47.6 0.2 22.2 7.8 3.3 6.5 0.1 Hospital Bearwood 8.2 36.1 0.2 17.3 5.5 0.5 32.1 0.1 Road Shelley 5.2 27.9 0.5 20.9 11.9 31.9 1.4 0.2 Drive Great Barr 5.3 24.5 0.5 18.2 13.1 36.8 1.5 0.2 Yew Tree 4.8 23.2 0.3 18.4 7.6 43.8 1.9 0.0 Windmill 6.9 32.9 0.1 14.4 20.4 7.3 18.0 0.1 Hill Stourbridge 10.6 33.0 0.1 15.0 19.7 6.1 15.5 0.0 Road Hagley 7.9 39.4 0.2 20.7 8.8 2.7 20.2 0.1 Road Bromford 8.3 29.8 0.8 15.2 20.7 3.9 20.7 0.8 Road Oldbury 6.0 23.9 0.4 19.4 24.0 12.5 13.9 0.1 Road Blackheath 5.9 29.4 0.2 22.0 24.8 7.2 10.5 0.0 High Street Quarry Bank High 6.8 35.8 0.1 22.3 12.7 2.8 19.4 0.0 Street Dudley Street, 9.4 35.9 0.3 23.0 7.2 3.1 21.2 0.1 Sedgley High Street 10.3 38.0 0.4 25.6 10.4 2.9 12.3 0.1 Sedgley Dudley Road, 6.0 28.3 0.3 21.7 12.0 9.3 22.4 0.1 Oldbury Oldbury 11.0 35.4 0.5 20.5 16.4 5.9 10.0 0.4 Ringway Birmingha 10.1 36.1 0.5 21.9 18.6 6.4 6.0 0.3 m Road Wolverham 9.0 29.7 0.0 16.4 16.8 19.1 9.0 0.0 pton Road Ball Hill 10.9 44.1 0.2 14.3 9.6 2.5 18.2 0.1 Halesowen Road 4.8 31.7 0.1 25.1 13.6 7.5 17.2 0.0 Netherton

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 75 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

6 Emission control measures

6.1 Introduction A Low Emission Zone (LEZ) is a geographically defined area where the most polluting vehicles in the fleet are restricted or discouraged. The aim is to improve air quality by setting an emissions based standard for the vehicles within the area. Vehicles sold in the UK comply with European emission standards, designated Euro 1-6 for cars and light commercial vehicles and Euro I-VI for heavy duty vehicles. This section compares the rates of emission of oxides of nitrogen from different Euro class vehicles at appropriate speeds. It identifies which Euro class vehicles emit more than the current fleet average and are thus potentially subject to control by an LEZ.

6.2 Comparison of emission factors Vehicles sold in the UK comply with European emission standards, designated Euro 1-6 for cars and light commercial vehicles and Euro I-VI for heavy duty vehicles. Table 35 shows the introduction dates for the European standards. Table 35: Introduction dates for European standards Vehicle class Euro 1/I Euro 2/II Euro 3/III Euro 4/IV Euro 5/V Euro 6/VI

Passenger cars 31/12/92- 01/01/97- 01/01/01- 01/01/06- 01/01/11- 01/09/15 01/01/97 01/01/01 01/01/06 01/01/11 01/09/15 onwards

Light commercial vehicles 01/10/94- 01/01/97- 01/01/01- 01/01/06- 01/01/11- 01/09/15 Class I up to 1.3 tonnes 01/01/97 01/01/01 01/01/06 01/01/11 01/09/15 onwards unladen weight Light commercial vehicles 01/10/94- 01/01/98- 01/01/02- 01/01/07- 01/01/12- 01/09/16 Class II/III between 1.3 tonnes 01/01/98 01/01/02 01/01/07 01/01/12 01/09/16 onwards unladen weight and 3.5 tonnes maximum laden weight

Heavy duty over 3.5 tonnes 01/10/93- 01/01/96- 01/10/01- 01/10/06- 01/10/09- 01/01/14 maximum laden weight 01/01/96 01/10/01 01/10/06 01/10/09 01/01/14 onwards

LEZs would be applied in the West Midlands primarily to reduce NO 2 concentrations, which are widely exceeded across the area. Figures 36-39 show emission factors for cars, light goods vehicles, heavy goods vehicles and buses for 2011 at typical speeds in the areas of concern. Figure 36 indicates that diesel cars prior to Euro 4 emit more oxides of nitrogen than the 2011 fleet average. There are therefore likely to be benefits in excluding these older diesel cars from an LEZ where diesel cars provide a substantial contribution to NO 2 concentrations. Euro 6 diesel vehicles are expected to emit substantially less oxides of nitrogen than older vehicles, however, these will only start to become available in 2015 and it will be several years before they make up the majority of the fleet. Petrol cars (Euro 3 or newer) emit substantially less than diesel cars and measures to promote the use of petrol cars in place of diesel cars may lead to reductions in NO 2 concentrations. Liquified petroleum gas and plug in hybrid electric cars also emit less oxides of nitrogen than diesel cars and measures to promote these vehicles (e.g. improved provision of LPG at service stations, charging points at public and workplace car parks) can lead to reductions in emissions.

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 76 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

Figure 37 indicates that light goods vehicles prior to Euro 4 emit more oxides of nitrogen than the 2011 fleet average. There are therefore likely to be benefits in excluding these older vehicles from an LEZ where light goods vehicles provide a substantial contribution to NO 2 concentrations. Euro 6 light goods vehicles are expected to emit substantially less oxides of nitrogen than older vehicles, although these will only start to become available in 2015 or 2016 and it will be several years before they make up the majority of the fleet. Liquefied petroleum gas light goods vehicles also emit less oxides of nitrogen and measures to promote these vehicles (e.g. improved provision of LPG at service stations) can lead to reductions in emissions.

Figure 38 indicates that rigid heavy goods vehicles prior to Euro 4 and articulated heavy goods vehicles prior to Euro V emit more oxides of nitrogen than the 2011 fleet averages. There are therefore likely to be benefits in excluding these older vehicles from an LEZ where heavy goods vehicles provide a substantial contribution to NO 2 concentrations. Euro 6 heavy goods vehicles are expected to emit substantially less oxides of nitrogen than older vehicles, these becoming available in 2014 and again it will be a few years before they make up the majority of the fleet.

Figure 39 indicates that buses prior to Euro 4 emit more oxides of nitrogen than the 2011 fleet averages. There are therefore likely to be benefits in excluding these older vehicles from an LEZ where heavy goods vehicles provide a substantial contribution to NO 2 concentrations. Euro V buses fitted with Exhaust Gas Recirculation (EGR) emit less than Euro IV buses, however Selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR) is relatively inefficient at abating oxides of nitrogen emissions at low vehicle speeds so that it may not be beneficial to replace older buses with Euro V buses using this technology. Euro 6 buses are expected to emit substantially less oxides of nitrogen than older vehicles, these will only start to become available in 2014 and it will be a few years before they make up the majority of the fleet. Buses running on compressed natural gas (CNG) emit oxides of nitrogen at relatively low rates and there may be benefits in replacing parts of the bus fleet with these buses where the necessary fuel supply infrastructure can be developed. Electric hybrid buses also have the potential to reduce emissions, although in practice wide variations in oxides of nitrogen emission rates have been observed because there are substantial differences in hybrid technologies. Figure 39 also shows the effect of retrofitting SCR to buses. Retrofitting SCR to Euro II and Euro III buses can control emissions to Euro IV levels.

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 77 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

Figure 36: Emission factors for oxides of nitrogen for passenger cars at 50 kph, 2011

Figure 37: Emission factors for oxides of nitrogen for light goods vehicles at 50 kph, 2011

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 78 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

Figure 38: Emission factors for oxides of nitrogen for heavy goods vehicles at 50 kph, 2011

Figure 39: Emission factors for oxides of nitrogen for buses and coaches at 12 kph, 2011

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 79 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

7 Plans for further work

7.1 Introduction The project steering group met on 28 th November 2013 to develop plans for further work to assess the technical feasibility of Low Emission Zones for the West Midlands. The steering group took into account the results set out in Sections 1-6 of this report. This section provides a summary of the agreed plans for further work.

7.2 Scenario Areas It was agreed to focus in depth (economic and health benefit assessments) on two areas, these being: • Birmingham City Centre This is the scenario which lends itself best to a ‘traditional’ LEZ style solution and has both a clearly defined boundary and most clearly understood source apportionment. Importantly, this scenario lends itself exceptionally well as a model for transferability with other major centres in the region having the potential to benefit from scenario options assessed e.g. Wolverhampton, Walsall. The area in question would be within the Middle Ring Road.

• M6 / M6 Toll The M6 as a scenario area possibly has the greatest impact in terms of pollution burden in the area and crosses / straddles a number of districts. Importantly in so far as a length of motorway can be assessed this stretch is probably the only stretch which has a viable alternate route in place, this being the M6 Toll. The area in question would be from the upper and lower junctions of the M6 & M6 Toll.

Having regards to the remaining scenario areas initially chosen by the LETC Programme and screened by Ricardo AEA, the discussion considered whether LEZ style options were available and how best to consider these within the scope of the project.

Following extensive discussions it was agreed to consider four scenario areas in a lighter fashion. The areas so chosen are: • Ball Hill, Coventry • A454 from Wolverhampton to Walsall • Bearwood Road, Sandwell • A456 / A458 within Dudley

The approach would be: ⇒ Individual LA’s to choose data from established monitoring points and to make this available to Ricardo AEA, confirming where necessary that the data is ratified for use (should it not already be published) ⇒ Ricardo AEA will consider pre-agreed scenario options (see below) based on which they will calculate the expected reduction in concentrations at those points

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 80 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

⇒ This will enable the individual LA’s to better consider what interventions are likely to benefit points, areas or whole routes.

There will be no further traffic modelling undertaken and as such no direct consideration of displacement although Ricardo AEA will reference displacement risks within each of the scenario options assessments as appropriate.

The assessment years shown in Table 36 were agreed.

Table 36: Assessment years for further work

Scenario area Base year Target year Birmingham City Centre 2011 M6/M6 Toll 2011 Ball Hill, Coventry A454 from Wolverhampton to 2018, 2026 Walsall As directed by local authority Bearwood Road, Sandwell A456 / A458 within Dudley

7.3 Scenario Options The agreed scenario options are presented in Table 37.

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 81 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

Table 37: Scenario options

Scenario (Sc1) Reference Vehicle Type Scenario Option (no access unless) Additional requirements Sc1.1 Buses Euro VI / SCR retrofit / CNG Comment on the likely effects / impacts from the existing statutory bus quality partnership scheme. Sc1.2 Cars Euro 6 diesel Birmingham City Centre Sc1.3 Taxis LPG

Sc1.4 HGV / LGV Euro VI Sc1.5 All above Sc1.1, Sc1.2, Sc1.3, Sc 1.4 combined Sc2.1 All All through traffic Consider if non-compliant vehicles exiting the M40 onto the M42 and transiting north on the M6 past the Sc2.2 All All diesel powered through traffic region could be routed via the M6 Toll M6 / M6 Toll Sc2.3 All All diesel powered through traffic unless Euro 6 / VI All diesel powered through traffic unless Euro 6 / VI Sc2.4 All or Ecopass Sc3.1 Buses Euro VI / SCR retrofit / CNG All traffic covered within each option would be directed to route to M6 J3 and enter the city centre Sc3.2 Cars Euro 6 diesel Ball Hill via the A444. Consider the additional emissions Sc3.3 HGV / LGV Euro VI along this route, not taking into account congestion, Sc3.4 All above Sc3.1, Sc3.2, Sc3.3 combined speed impacts, etc Sc4.1 Buses Euro VI / SCR retrofit / CNG The extent to cover monitoring points from the Moseley Road / Neachells Lane junction through to Sc4.2 Cars Euro 6 diesel A454 Wolverhampton to J10 M6 and on to Walsall town centre Walsall Sc4.3 HGV / LGV Euro VI Sc4.4 All above Sc4.1, Sc4.2, Sc4.3 combined Sc5.1 Buses Euro VI / SCR retrofit / CNG Consider bus routes running on the Hagley Road Sc5.2 Cars Euro 6 diesel Bearwood Road Sc5.3 HGV / LGV Euro VI Sc5.4 All above Sc5.1, Sc5.2, Sc5.3 combined Sc6.1 Buses Euro VI / SCR retrofit / CNG Consider the issues with deploying LEZs to deal with hotspot areas, which may better be managed by Sc6.2 Cars Euro 6 diesel A456 / A458 traffic management interventions Sc6.3 HGV / LGV Euro VI Sc6.4 All above Sc6.1, Sc6.2, Sc6.3 combined

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 82 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

Appendix 1- Bearwood Road dispersion modelling

Background It has been noted earlier in this work that the Bearwood Road area forms a street canyon, which cannot be fully represented within the LADS-Urban model used for other areas. For this reason Bearwood Road and surrounds have been additionally modelled using ADMS Road 3.1. Model domain The modelled area is shown in Figure A1 with road links included in the model in blue, and the locations/names of the diffusion tubes used for model verification are provided. We have modelled the A4030 between the junctions with the A4092 to the north and the A456 to the south. In addition we have modelled a stretch of the A456, the A4040 and part of the B4182. The modelled roads have been input to the model in approximately 20m stretches so as to ensure a high level of detail in the model outputs. Figure A1 - Bearwood Road model domain

Traffic data inputs

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 83 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

We have used the AADT flows for the links of interest from the LADS-Urban model described previouslyand consulted the Google Maps traffic layer to understand the patterns of traffic speeds in the Bearwood Road area. This tool has categorised traffic speeds for each hour of each day of the week which are derived from crowd sourced GPS measurements. As the data is derived from measured speeds under real traffic conditions, we consider this a reasonably robust source of information for characterising general patterns of congestion at Bearwood Road and the surrounding areas. This data does not provide numerical speed estimates, which must be derived. The speed data for the area suggests that the Bearwood Road corridor has quite slow moving traffic throughout the day which is likely due to the number of bus stops, crossings and junctions that interrupt the normal flow of traffic. We have interpreted the data using our experience in analysing typical urban speeds under conditions where traffic is interrupted by obstacles to free flow. Hourly GPS speed data (such as from the Trafficmaster database) was not available to this work but we have used our recent experience with this dataset on various studies to assign likely speeds to the Bearwood Road area based on the prevailing conditions. Previous work based on measured GPS data suggests that under “town centre” conditions average traffic speeds of 20kmh -1 are not uncommon - indeed speeds can be even lower near junctions. Congestion patterns are not exactly known for the domain so we have used an average speed of 30kmh-1 along most of Bearwood Road at locations identified as slower moving in the Google data. In part this speed was informed by the diffusion tube measurements which are not suggestive of a congested setting given the flows of traffic involved. If the measurements had been similar in 2011 to those in 2010 it is likely a slower speed would have been chosen for the Bearwood Road links. Other more free flowing locations on Bearwood Road have been assigned a speed of 40kmh -1. The A456 has a modelled speed of between 30 to 60kmh -1 depending on proximity to the junction with the A4030. Fleet splits were taken from the appropriate links in the previously described DfT dataset, with the exception of the B4182 where the PRISM based data was used. Traffic data used in the model is summarised in Table A1. Table A1 Summary of traffic data used

Daily % Bus % Rigid % Artic Road Traffic % Car % LGV and % Motorcycle Speed(kph) HGV HGV Flow Coach

A456 33672 83.4 12.4 1.3 0.3 2.0 0.8 30-60 B4182 10361 92.3 3.6 0.3 0.3 3.4 0.1 30 A4030 11957 84.1 11.5 0.8 0.1 3.1 0.4 30-40 A4040 10009 86.5 9.1 1.1 0.1 2.9 0.3 30-40

We have developed typical diurnal traffic profiles to assign to the road emissions in the ADMS Roads model. Whilst we use a daily average speed which is applied to all hours in the day, the use of a diurnal profile ensures that the periods of the day with most vehicles have their emissions scaled appropriately. In turn this ensures that higher emissions are assigned to the morning and evening peaks, and also that these emissions are modelled using the appropriate meteorological data for those periods. This could be important for instance where high traffic emissions coincide with a period of early morning cold/still weather. The use of a diurnal profile broadly accounts for these effects. The diurnal profiles used in this instance were split into weekday and weekend and were derived from the DfT TR307 dataset for the whole UK7 and are presented in Figure A2 below.

7 http://www.dft.gov.uk/statistics/series/traffic

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 84 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

In the plots, an average hour for the day has a value of 1, with emissions in each hour being scaled in the dispersion model according to how the flow deviates from the average. The profile for weekdays has a morning and afternoon peak associated with commuting and school traffic. The weekend profile is skewed to the later morning/early afternoon and is probably more associated with shopping/leisure travel. Figure A2 - Diurnal profiles for weekdays and weekends

Emissions modelling The traffic data was input to the latest version of the Emissions Factors Toolkit 8 in order to derive Road NO x emissions to use in the ADMS Roads model. The Toolkit was run in “Detailed Option 2” mode for 2011 and it was assumed that the UK average Euro standard spread within each fleet class appropriately characterised those found in the model domain. The outputs from the EfT were also used to apportion sources of Road NO x at the modelled receptor locations i.e. the diffusion tube sites.

NO 2 monitoring data We have used local monitoring to verify the dispersion model. The values used for verification in this instance are exactly as presented in Sandwell Borough Council’s 2012 Updating and Screening Assessment. The NO 2 monitoring data for 2010 and 2011 and the tube adjustment factor used in each year are shown in Table A1 below.

It should be noted that the 2011 NO 2 measurements for Bearwood Road have shown a marked decrease from 2010, a reduction of several micrograms of NO 2 in most instances. This appears to be due in part to the diffusion tube bias adjustment factor changing from 1.15 in 2010 to 0.93 in 2011. As these sites are used to verify the dispersion model, the step change has important implications for the modelled concentrations i.e. they are significantly lower than the NO 2 limit value at most locations which would probably not have been the case for a 2010 base year model. The model adjustment factor used in 2011 was developed by Sandwell Borough Council.

Treatment of background and NO 2 conversion

For the 2011 baseline year we have used a representative local modelled background NO x -3 value of 36 µgm derived from the LADS-Urban model. Modelled Road NOx concentrations have been added to this value and total NO 2 concentrations were calculated using Defra’s NO x:NO 2 model. Model parameters and other data Meteorological data from Birmingham Airport in 2011 was used in this assessment. The ADMS Roads model was run using a dispersion site surface roughness value of 1m and a

8 http://laqm.defra.gov.uk/review-and-assessment/tools/emissions.html

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 85 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study limit for the Monin-Obukhov length of 30m. For the meteorological measurement site values of 0.1m and 10m respectively were used. The model was run in “intelligent gridding” mode yielding high resolution concentrations of Road NO x across the model domain ready for conversion to NO 2 post processing. It is not possible in ADMS Roads to represent the buildings along street canyons in great detail and a degree of idealisation is required so as to still adequately represent the limiting effect of the canyon on dispersion, but whilst using simple geometries to represent the buildings. The Bearwood Road links were therefore modelled as street canyons of 20m width and 8m height. Broadly speaking this value is representative of 2 storey buildings along the roadside. In reality the canyon may change in height and width at every separate building but this cannot be represented in ADMS Roads. The other roads in the domain were modelled using their road widths measured in the GIS and were not input to the model as street canyons. Model verification To assess model performance we have conducted a routine model verification exercise comparing model results with measurements of NO 2. The model performed well in the first instance and so no adjustment of modelled Road NO x was deemed necessary. Figure A3 shows the results of the model verification exercise using the available diffusion tube measurements in comparison with modelled concentrations. The model over predicts at the -3 sites with measured NO 2 concentrations <35 µgm in 2011. These measured concentrations are quite low considering the quite high background NO x value and the traffic conditions along Bearwood Road.

Figure A3 - Modelled Vs Measured NO 2 concentrations, 2011

The plot in Figure A4 shows the modelled annual mean NO 2 concentration for the whole domain in 2011. As can be seen the Bearwood Road canyon does not have widespread modelled exceedances of the NO 2 annual mean limit value, though these results should be interpreted in the context of the very large drop in measured concentrations between 2010 and 2011. As the diffusion tube measurements underpin the model it means that if the measurements had been higher the model would have similarly higher results. We have used the measured values reported by Sandwell Borough Council to Defra in 2012 and hence we assume these are the best measured data available.

There are exceedances of the NO 2 annual mean limit value along the A456 and at a few other locations in the model domain, but with the exception of the junction between A456/A4030 these do not appear to effect residential locations. Figure A5 shows the location of the modelled 40 µgm -3 contour line superimposed on local buildings, and it can be seen

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 86 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study that in most instances the buildings lie outside the contour except at the locations noted earlier.

Figure A4 - Modelled NO 2 concentrations, 2011

Figure A5 - Plot showing location of modelled 40 µg m -3 contour line

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 87 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

Table A2 - 2010 and 2011 measured NO 2 concentrations, and 2011/2016/2026 modelled concentrations 2010 2011 2026 Diffusion Tube 2011 2016 (meas) (meas) mod, Reference mod mod (1.15) (0.93) draft C9A 42.20 41.16 41.4 38.0 24.1 C9D 38.50 32.42 36.4 33.4 21.7 C9E 49.99 - - - - C10A 55.50 42.85 41.6 38.0 24.5 C10D 66.40 49.75 42.1 38.7 24.8 OA 46.50 33.78 38.3 35.2 22.7 OB 47.40 38.29 37.2 34.2 22.1 OC 46.50 34.69 37.7 34.6 22.4 OD 48.90 39.05 37.3 34.3 22.2 OE 44.00 30.53 37.6 34.5 22.3 OF 43.70 30.73 32.3 30.1 21.0 OG 46.20 35.11 38.7 35.4 22.8 OH 51.20 37.31 35.9 33.1 21.6 OI 45.70 32.93 37.8 34.8 22.5 OJ 55.20 42.09 37.5 34.4 22.3 OP4 44.70 34.07 34.5 31.9 22.5 Bias adjustment value in brackets

We have modelled NO 2 concentrations in 2016 and 2026 (draft data) by scaling the 2011 traffic data using a combined TEMPRO/NRTF factor appropriate for the location. This procedure yielded adjustment factors of 1.14 and 1.32 to account for traffic growth to 2016 and 2026 respectively against the 2011 baseline.

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 88 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

Despite the growth in traffic the projected emissions from the fleet are more than offset by the penetration of cleaner vehicles and hence, the modelled concentrations are progressively lower (see Table A2). Background concentrations are also predicted to be lower at about 33 -3 and 22 µgm of NO x around Bearwood Road for 2016 and 2026 respectively. It should be noted that we have modelled future years using the same speeds as for the baseline; in practice higher levels of traffic could mean slower average speeds and higher emissions. Source apportionment We have repeated the source apportionment exercise carried out above, this time using the ADMS Roads dispersion model to discretely calculate the contribution to total NO x from each vehicle type in the model domain. The NO x emissions from each class in the EfT were input separately to ADMS Roads and the relative contribution to overall NO x was derived from the summed totals assuming a fixed background of 36 µg m -3. The results of the modelled source contributions are provided as concentrations in Table A2 below, and as % contributions to total NO x in Table A3.

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 89 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

Table A2 - Source apportionment µgm -3 Background Car HGV Bus LGV Location Road Nox (all) Total NOx NOx NOx NOx NOx NOx C10A 31.6 36.0 67.6 15.0 3.7 7.7 5.3 C10D 33.0 36.0 69.0 16.1 4.0 7.2 5.7 OP4 14.0 36.0 50.0 6.4 1.3 4.1 2.2 OG 24.0 36.0 60.0 10.8 2.0 7.6 3.6 OA 23.3 36.0 59.3 10.4 1.9 7.4 3.5 OB 20.3 36.0 56.3 9.1 1.6 6.6 3.1 OC 21.7 36.0 57.7 9.7 1.7 7.1 3.2 OH 17.3 36.0 53.3 7.7 1.4 5.6 2.6 OD 20.6 36.0 56.6 9.1 1.6 6.8 3.1 OE 21.3 36.0 57.3 9.5 1.7 7.0 3.2 OI 22.0 36.0 58.0 9.7 1.7 7.3 3.3 OF 8.9 36.0 44.9 4.0 0.7 2.9 1.3 OJ 21.1 36.0 57.1 9.3 1.6 7.0 3.1 C9A 30.9 36.0 66.9 14.2 2.2 10.9 3.6 C9D 18.5 36.0 54.5 8.4 1.4 5.9 2.8

Table A3 - Source apportionment % of total NOx Location BG % Road % Cars % HGV % Bus % LGV % C10A 53.2 46.8 22.2 5.4 11.4 7.8 C10D 52.2 47.8 23.3 5.8 10.5 8.2 OP4 72.0 28.0 12.8 2.6 8.2 4.3 OG 60.0 40.0 18.0 3.3 12.7 6.1 OA 60.8 39.2 17.6 3.2 12.6 5.9 OB 63.9 36.1 16.1 2.9 11.6 5.4 OC 62.4 37.6 16.7 3.0 12.2 5.6 OH 67.5 32.5 14.5 2.6 10.5 4.9 OD 63.6 36.4 16.1 2.8 12.0 5.4 OE 62.8 37.2 16.5 2.9 12.3 5.5 OI 62.1 37.9 16.8 2.9 12.6 5.6 OF 80.1 19.9 8.9 1.6 6.4 2.9 OJ 63.1 36.9 16.3 2.8 12.3 5.5 C9A 53.8 46.2 21.3 3.3 16.3 5.3 C9D 66.1 33.9 15.4 2.5 10.8 5.1

To enable comparison with the results in Table 32 of this report which uses a different methodology Table A4 presents the sources as a percentage of total Road NO x (i.e. without background NO x). As can be seen the results are similar- notably that cars are the largest local road source on Bearwood Road with buses being the second largest source at all locations in the model domain. Diffusion tube site OD was used in the previous analysis, and the results are presented in brackets below for ease of comparison.

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 90 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

Table A4- Source apportionment % of Road NO x Location Cars % HGV % Bus % LGV % C10A 47.4 11.5 24.4 16.6 C10D 48.7 12.2 22.0 17.2 OP4 45.8 9.4 29.4 15.5 OG 44.9 8.4 31.6 15.1 OA 44.7 8.2 32.0 15.1 OB 44.6 8.1 32.3 15.0 OC 44.5 8.0 32.6 15.0 OH 44.6 8.0 32.4 15.0 OD 44.4 (44.3) 7.8 (6.0) 32.9 (32.1) 14.9 (17.5) OE 44.4 7.8 33.0 14.9 OI 44.3 7.7 33.2 14.9 OF 44.9 8.0 32.3 14.8 OJ 44.2 7.6 33.3 14.8 C9A 46.1 7.2 35.3 11.5 C9D 45.5 7.4 31.9 15.2

The source apportionment data indicates that background concentrations are an important, even dominant factor in the overall NO 2 concentrations in this area. This suggests that very localised interventions may be appropriate albeit wider schemes that reduce the background could be equally effective in reducing concentrations. That said, these results should be interpreted in the context of the comments made previously on the 2011 monitoring data which underpins this entire exercise. Emissions reduction scenario

To inform discussion around potential NO x reduction scenarios we have modelled the impact in 2011 of limiting access along Bearwood Road to heavy vehicles (buses, HGVs) of Euro V standard. It should be noted that the baseline in this instance is derived from the assumption that Euro class splits in the heavy fleet in the area follow the UK average. This may not be the case in practice. That said, the results of the scenario show only quite modest improvements of a few percent reduction in NO 2 and it is unlikely the results would change materially if Euro standard splits were available. This analysis has not taken into account the improvements in background concentrations of NO 2 due to a wider Euro V (or similar) scheme. Background NO x concentrations in the Bearwood Road area are important in the overall NO x profile and so benefits could reasonably be expected to be larger if there was a wider ranged scheme that targeted heavy vehicles. It should be noted that private cars are easily the most important road source of NO x in the area modelled and would therefore be a natural focus for emissions reductions. Table A5 - Emissions reduction scenario - all heavy vehicle Euro V, 2011

Diffusion Tube Reference Baseline modelled All heavy vehicles Euro V % change

C9A 41.4 40.4 -2.3 C9D 36.4 35.6 -2.2 C10A 41.6 40.8 -2.0 C10D 42.1 41.3 -2.0

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 91 West Midlands Low Emission Zones: Technical Feasibility Study

Diffusion Tube Reference Baseline modelled All heavy vehicles Euro V % change

OA 38.3 37.6 -1.9 OB 37.2 36.5 -1.7 OC 37.7 37.0 -1.8 OD 37.3 36.6 -1.7 OE 37.6 36.9 -1.8 OF 32.3 32.0 -1.0 OG 38.7 37.9 -1.9 OH 35.9 35.4 -1.6 OI 37.8 37.2 -1.8 OJ 37.5 36.8 1.7 OP4 34.5 34.1 1.4

Ref: Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58179/WP1 Final 92

The Gemini Building Fermi Avenue Harwell Didcot Oxfordshire OX11 0QR

Tel: 01235 75 3000 Web: www.ricardo-aea.com