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Morning Wrap Morning Wrap Today ’s Newsflow Equity Research 05 Oct 2020 08:28 BST Upcoming Events Select headline to navigate to article Greencore Solid FY20 outcome given challenging COVID- Company Events 19 backdrop 05-Oct Wizz Air; September 2020 Traffic Stats 06-Oct ARYZTA; FY20 Results SEGRO UK logistics take-up hits new annual record Harworth Group; Interim Results Norwegian Air Shuttle; September 2020 Traffic Stats Irish Economic View Budget deficit at the lower end of Restaurant Group; Q220 Results 07-Oct Tesco; Q221 Results expectations 09-Oct Air France-KLM; September 2020 Traffic Stats J D Wetherspoon; Full year results Irish Economic View Service sector in contraction again due to renewed restrictions FBD Holdings Business Interruption test case with 4 pub groups to start tomorrow UK Banks Sector newsflow Morses Club MCL appoints Graeme Campbell as CFO Economic Events Ireland United Kingdom United States Europe This document is intended for the sole use of Goodbody Stockbrokers and its affiliates Goodbody Capital Markets Equity Research +353 1 6419221 Equity Sales +353 1 6670222 Bloomberg GDSE<GO> Goodbody Stockbrokers UC, trading as “Goodbody”, is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. In the UK, Goodbody is authorised and subject to limited regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority. Goodbody is a member of Euronext Dublin and the London Stock Exchange. Goodbody is a member of the FEXCO group of companies. For the attention of US clients of Goodbody Securities Inc, this third-party research report has been produced by our affiliate, Goodbody Stockbrokers Goodbody Morning Wrap Greencore Solid FY20 outcome given challenging COVID-19 backdrop Greencore has released a full year trading update in which it notes a sequential quarterly Recommendation: Buy improvement in revenue, adjusted EBITDA and cash flows. Pro-forma Group revenues during Closing Price: £1.02 Q4 were down 19%, which is up from the -36% delivered in Q3. This resulted in FY20 Group Jason Molins revenues of c.£1,265m (GBY £1,285m). Group adjusted EBITDA (post IFRS 16) for FY20 +353-1-641 9141 came in at c.£85m including in excess of £10m of non-recurring operating costs due to [email protected] COVID-19. This compares to our forecast of £106.6m which excludes non-recurring costs. While Greencore note that UK consumer sentiment and economic activity is fragile and subdued, demand improved through the second half of the year as the UK economy slowly reopened. The Food to Go category reported revenues down 28% in Q4 (GBY -30%), a marked improvement from the -53% seen during Q3. The Group highlighted that its strong customer relationships and product range has supported new business opportunities that will help the rebuild in Group revenue. The other convenience food categories delivered a resilient performance with Q4 growth of 3% (Q3: 2%). Net Debt (pre-IFRS 16) at the end of FY20 came in a c.£345m (GBY £325m) with an improvement in cash flow generation seen during Q4 as volumes started to recover. We note that Greencore has £578m of total committed debt facilities and could access the CCFF program which could provide a further £300m. Greencore has not drawn under this facility, and furthermore, has already agreed with its lenders for a waiver of its covenants for the September 2020 and March 2021 test periods. Overall, we consider this a solid outcome for the Group in the face of an extremely challenging backdrop. While we acknowledge the uncertainty surrounding the duration of COVID-19 and its impact, we note the stocks undemanding valuation with a cal. 21 PE of 9.6x and EV/EBITDA of 7.1x. Home… This document is intended for the sole use of Goodbody Stockbrokers and its affiliates Page 2 05 Oct. 20 Goodbody Morning Wrap SEGRO UK logistics take-up hits new annual record th Data released on Monday (5 October) by agents Savills, showed that by the end of the of Recommendation: Hold September 2020, warehousing and logistics space take-up in the UK reached 38.6m sq.ft, Closing Price: £9.56 beating the previous annual record set in 2016 (3.6% ahead) with three months the year still Colm Lauder to go. +353-1-641 6042 [email protected] Incredibly, so far, in 2020, 29% of the entire total take-up of space has been from Amazon, as the online retailer expanded rapidly during the COVID pandemic. Across the market, 54% of take-up was purpose built to meet tenant requirements, 26% of space take-up was second-hand and 19% was built speculative. The low level of speculative space, and high level of purpose built, further highlights the strong levels of occupier demand in the market. Vacancy is down to across all UK submarkets and locations also. This is a strong data release for SGRO, the best positioned UK warehousing and logistics landlord, and will give further confidence of a strong NAV growth out-turn at year end. Home… This document is intended for the sole use of Goodbody Stockbrokers and its affiliates Page 3 05 Oct. 20 Goodbody Morning Wrap Irish Economic View Budget deficit at the lower end of expectations Although the deficit is still large, Ireland is in a much better fiscal position going into next Dermot O’Leary week’s Budget that was anticipated a few months ago. September’s Exchequer Returns, +353-1-641 9167 [email protected] released Friday, show that the continued growth in the multinational sector and the resilience of income taxes continue to offset some of the costs of pandemic supports for businesses and workers. At the end of September, total government revenue was down just 0.5% yoy, with tax revenues down by 3% yoy. Income tax, the biggest tax heading, was down by 2% yoy, and was €2.5bn ahead of expectations. Corporation tax was up 28% yoy and was €2.4bn ahead of expectations. Reflecting the shutdown of vast swathes of the economy due to the pandemic, VAT receipts fell by 20% yoy, but was still €772m ahead of expectations laid out in April. Expenditure grew by 19% yoy in the first nine months of 2020, reflecting a 45% yoy increase in spending on employment affairs and social protection and a 16% yoy increase on healthcare. In April, the government set out its expectations for a budget deficit of €25bn- €30bn in 2020. At this stage, it is likely that the deficit will be at the bottom of that range. This still represents a large fiscal hole, but the unexpected resilience of the multinational sector has been a welcome bounty this year once again. While such level of revenue is unsustainable into the medium-term, the same can also be said about the crisis supports. As long as the health crisis continues, it is right for the government to attempt to offset the impact of the weakness in the private sector. That is why Budget 2021 will all be about the implementation of counter-cyclical fiscal policy. Home… This document is intended for the sole use of Goodbody Stockbrokers and its affiliates Page 4 05 Oct. 20 Goodbody Morning Wrap Irish Economic View Service sector in contraction again due to renewed restrictions An uptick in cases of COVID-19, the introduction of additional regional restrictions and Dermot O’Leary general concerns about the economic outlook all contributed to weakness in the Irish +353-1-641 9167 [email protected] services sector in September, according to the latest AIB/Markit PMI survey published this morning. The headline index declined from 52.4 in August to 45.8 in September. The fall was the third largest in the survey’s history, behind the declines seen in Market and April. Business declined across all four sub-sectors, but the greatest was in the transport, tourism and leisure sector. The end of the summer and the closure of restaurants and bars in the capital were the contributory factors here. Unsurprisingly, employers continued to lay off workers in September, with the fastest decline being seen in the leisure and tourism sector. The fall in the services PMI took the composite index to 46.9. Outside of the March- June 2020, this is the fastest rate of decline since January 2010. The fall is a renewed reminder of how the fate of the economy is heavily linked to the virus and the government decisions on how to control it. In this context, we can expect a further large contraction in the sector if the advice of NPHET for a full national lockdown is taken by government this week. Compared to the situation that prevailed in March, it looks like a disproportionate response. Home… This document is intended for the sole use of Goodbody Stockbrokers and its affiliates Page 5 05 Oct. 20 Goodbody Morning Wrap FBD Holdings Business Interruption test case with 4 pub groups to start tomorrow The insurance industry in Ireland will be watching developments at the much-awaited Recommendation: Buy business interruption test case between FBD and four publican groups which commences Closing Price: €6.20 tomorrow, October 6, in the Commercial Court. The Irish Independent at the weekend notes Eamonn Hughes that the FBD interim CEO wrote to all staff on Friday that FBD “must defend the integrity of +353-1-641 9442 the insurance contract” in the case. In the letter to staff, the interim CEO noted that the [email protected] recent UK test case brought by the FCA was “regarded as favourable to the position of policyholders” though are expected to be subject to appeals and “we are closely monitoring how all of this impacts on our own case and policy wordings”.
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