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Morning Wrap Morning Wrap Today ’s Newsflow Equity Research 19 Sep 2016 Upcoming Events Select headline to navigate to article Paper & Packaging US inventory data supportive of price Company Events increase 20-Sep GVC Holdings; H1 2016 Results Kingfisher; Q2 2016 Results UDG Healthcare Ashfield forms alliance with Patient 22-Sep Origin Enterprises; Q4 2016 Results Connect 26-Sep ARYZTA; Q4 2016 Results Draper Esprit Historic results, Zendesk integrates with Trustpilot Permanent TSB New online personal loan offering Commercial Property Interest in Dublin office market from UK firms Economic View Central bankers, Centre stage Economic Events Ireland United Kingdom 26-Sep BBA Mortgage Approvals Aug 2016 United States Europe 22-Sep Consumer Confidence Sep 2016 Goodbody Capital Markets Equity Research +353 1 6419221 Equity Sales +353 1 6670222 Bloomberg GDSE<GO> Goodbody Stockbrokers (trading as Goodbody) is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. For the attention of US clients of Goodbody Securities Inc, this third-party research report has been produced by our affiliate Goodbody Stockbrokers. Please see the end of this report for analyst certifications and other important disclosures. Goodbody Morning Wrap Paper & Packaging US inventory data supportive of price increase Data from the U.S. shows that corrugated box shipments increased by over 9% yoy in David O’Brien +353-1-641 9230 August to 33.8 billion square feet. Adjusting for extra trading days during the month, yoy david.a.o’[email protected] performance was closer to flat for August and is also flat for the ytd. Robert Eason +353-1-641 9271 This has translated into a 82k tonne decline in containerboard inventories in August which [email protected] compares to the historical increase of 7k tonnes for the month. This is the third consecutive month that inventory changes have been below the historical norm and means that the absolute level is now 2.39m tonnes or 3.9 weeks of supply. Typically when inventory levels fall below 4 weeks of supply, pricing power is achieved. Disciplined inventory management appears to be supportive of an October containerboard price increase in the U.S. Smurfit Kappa is the biggest beneficiary of the stocks under our coverage with c.400k tonnes of production in the region. Home… UDG Healthcare Ashfield forms alliance with Patient Connect This morning UDG announced that Ashfield has formed a strategic alliance with Patient Recommendation: Buy Connect a market leader in optimising patient health at the point of dispensing. The aim of Closing Price: £6.34 the alliance is to increase patient adherence and outcomes. Ashfield's clinical offering utilises David O'Brien multi-channel patient support programmes through nurse visits and telephone services to +353-1-641 9230 help educate patients to take their medications according to proper protocol. Patient david.a.o'[email protected] Connect’s pharmacy network, which spans ten European countries, the U.S. and Australia, will support enrolment into these programmes. While no potential financial upside is outlined in the release, this allegiance will help strengthen Ashfield's patient adherence services by significantly broadening the company's patient reach. This is another example of UDG's continually evolving patient centric service offering. We remain positive on the stock with long term structural and acquisitive growth potential yet to be recognised in the stocks valuation. Home… Page 2 19 Sep. 16 Goodbody Morning Wrap Draper Esprit Historic results, Zendesk integrates with Trustpilot Draper issued results for the pre-IPO vehicle on Friday, which contained little in the way of Recommendation: Buy relevant information. The Interim Results statement towards the end of the year more likely, Closing Price: £3.23 in our view, to provide a better indication of progress since the public listing in June. Post Gerry Hennigan IPO commentary in the statement largely reflected the £3.1m investment in Stockholm- +353-1-641 9274 based Lifesum, a digital health company, and the sale of Movidius. The former saw our [email protected] portfolio value rise to £79.5m. The latter, which was guided to provide a 21% uplift (c.£16m) to the pro-forma NAV of £76.4 at IPO, led us increase our projected value as of December 2017 from £140m to c.£151m or £3.71 per share and our PT to £3.75. Also on Friday, Zendesk, which delivers a customer service platform to more than 81,000 paid customer accounts in over 150 countries, and a more traditionally-aligned competitor to Conversocial, announced a new integration that lets businesses engage with customers on non-traditional support channels. Target channels include Amazon, eBay, and Conversocial’s Draper stable-mate, Trustpilot. Driven by consumer demand for companies to expand the breadth of service channels, Zendesk has enabled customer service agents to respond to online reviews on Trustpilot, which, according to the statement from Zendesk, is publishing 500,000 reviews each month. Positives that we would draw from Zendesk statement are the pace of expansion of the traditional customer service offering beyond the confines of voicemail and email, indirectly reinforcing the social media offering of Conversocial, and Zendesk’s recognition of the Trustpilot franchise within the corporate review market. Conversocial contributes £5.4m and Trustpilot £8.9m to our Draper Esprit portfolio NAV at IPO of £76.4m. Home… Page 3 19 Sep. 16 Goodbody Morning Wrap Permanent TSB New online personal loan offering PTSB has launched an online personal loan platform through its Open24.ie banking channel Recommendation: Hold where loans of up to €15,000 can be approved and transferred into a customer’s account Closing Price: €1.86 within 15 minutes of starting the application. The new loan product is open to existing Eamonn Hughes customers whose salary is paid into their current accounts. Bigger loans of up to €75,000 will +353-1-641 9442 be referred to the bank’s call centre. [email protected] PTSB’s offer responds to rising competition in the marketplace where digital offerings for personal loans are already on offer. Our forecasts have personal lending grow from €0.3bn to €0.52bn at PTSB from 2016 to 2019, still only accounting for c.3% of loans though c.8% of gross interest income. Home… Commercial Property Interest in Dublin office market from UK firms An Irish Times article this morning indicates that the Central Bank is to split its market Eamonn Hughes +353-1-641 9442 supervision division into two units as it deals with a surge of inquiries from London-based [email protected] investment funds and firms following the Brexit vote. The report also notes a UK Telegraph article over the weekend that a number of top law firms, insurers and asset managers in the City have quietly appointed property agents to seek out new offices in Dublin, naming Freshfields, Slaughter & May and Allan & Overy among the list. Many UK firms are likely to be evaluating their options post Brexit, but the article nonetheless highlights an uptick of interest for potential growth in the Dublin office market. Home… Page 4 19 Sep. 16 Goodbody Morning Wrap Economic View Central bankers, Centre stage This week, central bankers will take all the limelight, with important meetings for the Bank of Dermot O’Leary +353-1-641 9167 Japan and the US Federal Reserve due to take place. In the US, a rate hike has been pretty [email protected] much taken off the table for this week’s meeting as a result of the weaker run of data over the past few weeks. However, there will be plenty of focus on the economic forecasts published at the meeting, the all-important “dot-plots” and the post-meeting press conference with Janet Yellen. Currently, the market is 50/50 on a rate hike at the December meeting. It is likely that Yellen will keep to the mantra that the next move by the Fed will be data-dependent, but it will be interesting to see whether the recent poor data has changed views on the durability of the US expansion. While it is likely that the next Fed move is upwards, much of the rest of the developed world is in easing mode. This is why this week’s Bank of Japan meeting will be watched closely. There has been plenty of speculation about what the BoJ may do on Wednesday, but there remains significant uncertainty about the specifics, with even more negative rates, a bigger QE programme or a shift in the maturity of assets that are purchased all being a possibility. Given that the BoJ has really been the test-case for many of the unconventional monetary policy measures that central banks have employed over recent years, their actions may again be a foretaste of things to come in other regions. Bond yields moved up over the past week, with the market seemingly questioning whether central banks have run out of road in their policy efforts. This week’s meeting will give us some clues as to whether this is a reasonable view. Home… Page 5 19 Sep. 16 Goodbody Morning Wrap Market Data Top 10 Covered Companies Company Price Mkt Cap Absolute Relative to European Sector P/E (LC) (LCM) 1 Day 1 Week 1 Mth Ytd 1 Day 1 Week 1 Mth Ytd 2016f 2017f CRH 29.36 23,947 -0.7 1.2 1.0 10.0 -0.0 3.5 2.7 19.1 18.1 14.8 Ryanair 13.24 17,066 1.5 -1.6 11.0 -11.8 2.3 0.6 12.8 -4.5 14.2 12.5 AIB Group 6.05 16,523 -13.6 0.8 -8.3 -9.2 -12.9 3.1 -6.8 -1.6 11.6 21.2 HeidelbergCement 80.46 15,965 -0.4 1.5 -0.8 6.4 0.3 3.8 0.8 15.2 16.0 14.5 Wolseley 43.80 11,390 0.0 1.8 2.8 18.7 0.7 3.1 6.4 11.0 17.4 15.3 Kerry Group 73.83 12,979
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