Forum: Economic and Social Council

Issue: Turkish-Arab Economic Relations

Student Officers: Hana Ismail, Carol Tharwat, Nevine Ghazi

Introduction

Turkey is known to be one of many key non-Arab nations that play a major role in the Middle East and region (MENA). has recently been engaged in economic and social encounters with many countries in the region, including , , and . While Turkey's relationship with Arab countries dates back centuries - ever since the rise and fall of the Ottoman Empire - it has recently raised apprehension and increased tension in the region strongly due to the stances and actions of the Turkish government. Turkey has found itself in havoc with numerous MENA countries: due to disagreements over the Gaza strip, Iraq due to cultural disagreements over establishing a Kurdish independent state and Syria due to territorial disputes in northern Syria. Undoubtedly, Turkey has seen more conflict and division among its enemies and supporters in the MENA region than it has ever before. On a global scale, Turkey’s political and security relations with countries beyond the MENA region have also been subject to increased agitation most importantly, their relations with the of America have become strained despite them being a key regional member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO). With a strong international focus on Turkey, it has been labelled as problematic, unethical and unsettled by some of their most valuable trading partners such as and the - the political turbulence has consistently caused a threat to their economic relationship. Despite this complex relationship, trade between Turkey and Arab countries has increased by approximately 250% in the last 10 years. It is the goal of this forum to find a resolution that will attempt to please all members and observers, to find solutions that are both sustainable and achievable, each adhering to their foreign policies.

Definition of Key Terms

Free Trade Area: A region in which a group of countries maintains little to no barriers, in terms of trade, in the form of tariffs or quotas (maximum allowed amount of imports of product) between each other.

MENA: This is an abbreviation for the Middle East and North Africa region. Countries in the MENA region include , Bahrain, Egypt, , Iraq, Israel, , Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, , Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, , United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Yemen.

Import: A good or service bought into one country that was produced in a different country.

Export: A good or service that is produced in a country that is then sold to buyers in another country.

Exclusive Economic Zone (EZZ): A concept derived from the Convention on the Law of the Sea which allows for a nation to have rights over a marine zone, its exploration and its resources.

Focused Overview

Turkish Exports and Imports

Given that its economy is largely led by its industrial sector, Turkey is a major exporter, it is even the ’s fifth largest trading partner. It produces essential commodities primarily vehicle parts (in which they managed to export $26 billion worth of in 2019), mechanical and electrical appliances, plastic, iron and steel, precious stones and metals as well as textiles and knitted goods. In recent years, a wide variety of major companies such as Nike, Toyota, Hyundai, Hewlett-Packard (HP) and Zara have established factories in Turkey proving it to be an up and rising hotspot for product manufacturing. As a result, Turkish exports have grown exponentially and will continue to grow in the coming years. Turkey does however lack in natural resources, predominantly oil and gas for their energy requirements. As of September 2020, Turkey had imported 3.09 million tonnes of crude oil. In July 2020, it had imported 1.04 million tonnes of crude oil from Iraq.

Turkish-Israeli Relations

Turkey’s relations with Arab countries have been tense for decades, mostly as a result of prior tension with other nations most notably, Israel. Israeli-Turkish relations started to cause conflict in 2003 during the . The war stirred conflict as Israel, who was the USA’s strongest ally in the Middle East, was in support of the Iraqi war which triggered Turkey as Israel was linked to Kurdish groups and were viewed as being heavily in support of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). PKK terrorists have long caused tension in Turkey and this became a massive sign of aggression between the two nations. Tension continued to rise significantly in 2004 when Isreal planned an of Sheikh Ahmad Yassin and Sheikh Abdulaziz al-Ranstisi, the spiritual leaders of Hamas. These events, coupled with the massive protests against Israel in Turkey, led to Prime Minister Erdoğan labelling Israel as a “terrorist state”.

Despite the rising tension, relations between the two nations were somewhat maintained as Turkey played a role in amending the historically conflicted ties between Syria and Israel. Meanwhile, Israeli-Palestinian territorial disputes surrounding the Gaza strip were deteriorating. Considering their security relation with Turkey, Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert, pledged to approach the situation in Gaza peacefully and with diplomacy; he also agreed to hold back their military forces in Gaza. Nonetheless, Isreal’s 2008 operation of the Gaza strip that resulted in over a thousand Palestinian deaths evoked a clash between Isreal and Turkey. Turkey took Israel’s offence of Gaza as betrayal and cut all security ties with them, no longer participating in amending the Syrian-Israeli ties. As a result of the ongoing and increasing fraught between Turkey and Israel, their ability to collaborate has been hindered. During the World Economic Forum at Davos, Switzerland in 2009, Erdogan labelled Israeli President Shimon Peres as “knowing how to kill children well” which triggered a continued strain between the two nations.

Economic Ramifications

The economic relations between Turkey and Israel have not been as bruised as their political relations. They have had a long trade history, in-fact, Turkey is Israel's 6th largest trade partner proving to be of value to both economies; in 2017, there was a 14% increase in Turkish exports to Israel worth $2.5 billion. In 2008, both nations bilaterally agreed on planning the Mediterranean Pipeline Project, Med Stream, a multi- billion dollar project benefiting both states.

Nonetheless, despite their economic relations being steady, the political turbulence between the two nations has caused tension with other countries primarily the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. Both countries view Turkey as a threat especially after their newly improved ties with Israel. When the UAE recognized Israel as a state following their agreement with the USA, Turkey in retaliation threatened to break ties with the United Arab Emirates.

Saudi Boycotting of Turkish Products

Since 2019, Saudi Arabia and UAE have unofficially halted Turkish imports and have been advocating that more MENA countries do the same. Consequently, Turkey’s exports have dropped since January 2020, almost by 20%. In October 2020, Saudi Arabia and UAE joined forces in leading the boycott of Turkish manufactured products; a movement which has recently gained momentum among consumers and retail chains. Despite the boycott being informal, and there being no legal restrictions when importing Turkish goods, it has struck aggression and disapproval from Turkish businesses and the government.

Turkish-Syrian Border Zone

Despite their decade long bilateral relations, their relations were challenged after Turkey refused to collaborate with the Syrian government in 2003 in their invasion of Iraq. Nonetheless, in 2004, Erdoğan had signed a free trade agreement with Syria which had ameliorated their relations. Nevertheless, when the broke out in 2011, Turkey had maintained a strong stance against the Syrian government. The Turkish government began by expressing its disapproval of the Syrian government and Bashar al-Assaad, the president of Syria, back in 2011 and has now intervened militarily. Turkey, who shares its longest border with Syria, has gone into a border dispute with the nation due to its difficult relations with Iran and (after they shot down a Russian aircraft, claiming it intervened into their territory) and a tense relationship with the USA over Syria (where Turkey engaged in combats with the PKK). Turkey invaded Northern Syria in what they claimed to be a defensive measure against the PKK who allegedly controlled the border with Turkey, a group who they deem as a terrorist threat to their nation. As a result, Turkey’s support of Syrian opposition increased and they continued to control northern Syria.

Turkish intervention started in 2014 when a vote in the Turkish parliament which would decide for or against the invasion of Syria (in order to show their disapproval of and the Levant, ISIL) was successful. This was the turning point as president Erdoğan affirmed that Turkey would continue to fight any terrorist groups with the aim of seeing Bashar al-Assad removed from power. Turkey had begun their intervention in 2015 when suspicions of a Kurdish state in northern Syria had been raised. This striked their military intervention which officially began on 24th August 2016 when they launched airstrikes in the region. Since then, there has been the Idlib operation in 2017 in partnership with Russia, the 2018 Afrin operation and the 2019 operation in north-eastern Syria. Turkey's interventions, which have led to thousands of deaths and have supported the ongoing conflict raised outrage among the global community as well as the MENA region. MENA countries interpreted them assuming power over Northern Syria as a ploy to expand their colonies and to expand Turkey geographically.

Libyan Civil War and Turkish Intervention

The of 2014 greatly involved Turkey after their one year military mandate to intervene after the orders from the Government of National Accord (GNA) of Libya. Such military intervention was not arbitrary, it was approved by the Grand National Assembly of Turkey on 5 January 2020. Besides military deployments throughout Libya, their military intervention included training of military men, aerial vehicles and the operation of Turkish navy vessels.

Libya-Turkey Maritime Deal

Turkey’s intervention and sudden desire to expand their maritime borders comes after Turkey and the GNA established a maritime boundary treaty in November 2019 creating an exclusive economic zone (EZZ) in the Mediteranean sea. This allows both the GNA and Turkey to claim rights over the resources found in the ocean of this area. The EEZ stretches from south-west Turkey to north-east Libya and assumes all resources in this area. This was the first political agreement between the two nations ever but it has nonetheless, sparked outrage in the MENA region due to its legitimacy. The EU, Cyprus and Egypt have affirmed the EZZ as illegitimate and infringing upon the Law of Sea. described it as a geographical error for it completely dismissed several Greek islands which are found within the boundaries of the EZZ. To counter this, Greece and Egypt established another EZZ in August 2020 in order to create a stark divide to the Turkish-Libyan EZZ. This further increased tension between Turkey and Egypt which was already strained in May 2020 when Egypt and the UAE denounced the agreement between Libya and Turkey which provoked Erdoğan to claim that the statement made by Egypt and UAE was “a group of countries who are seeking regional chaos and instability”.

Mercenaries and Terrorist links

The Syrian deployed during the Libyan Civil War gained attention in the MENA region for they were hired by Turkey from the (SNA) in December 2019. The first deployment included 300 soldiers but this quickly increased to 18,000 by September 2020. While the majority of the soldiers are Syrian Turkmen, there have been suspicions of terrorist links to the Turkish employed forces in Libya. The Syrian Observatory for revealed that there were 10,000 jihadist soldiers, that 50 of the SNA fighters were also former fighters for ISIL and that an additional 2,500 were Tunisin foreighn fighters for ISIL. Later on in April 2020, the (LNA) claimed that another Turkish hired was linked to the military wing of the Kurdish National Council.

The supposed terrorist links to the Turkish hired mercenaries caused turmoil in the MENA region as well as the EU and NATO. This was viewed as a sign of aggression and a hostile attempt for Turkey to expand its resources, without taking into consideration the security breaches and consequences of such extreme intervention.

Major Parties and Organizations

Libya: Libya has had two civil wars recently: the first in 2011 and the second, in 2014 which is still ongoing. The relations between Turkey and Libya are strong but have caused issues with the rest of the MENA region. Turkey is viewed as being reluctant to end the Libyan civil war for it has prolonged the war by its continued deployment of mercenaries in the country.

Qatar: Turkey and Qatar have signed several military cooperation agreements over the years, and often exports military equipment to Qatar. Turkey has also set a military base there and aims to have 3,000 Turkish troops stationed on Qatari soil. Qatar also strongly backs the GNA faction in Libya and has often disapproved of attacks against it.

GNA: The Government of National Accord, is one of the two warring factions in Libya. It is not supported by most of the Arab League States but is greatly aided by Turkey. It has UN and international backing and control over the capital.

LNA: The Libyan National Army is the second faction in Libya. It has more regional support and a greater sphere of influence inside Libya. It also has control over most of the oil fields in Libya.

United Nations: The United Nations operates the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) using peacekeepers to help de-escalate the conflicts there. It recognizes the GNA as the legitimate government of Libya. The UN has expressed its disproval over Turkey in regards to their involvement in Syria, they have urged that Turkey conduct a to avoid escalation of the war. Nonetheless, the UN is in the process of approving the Turkey-Libya maritime deal which would offend many countries who have expressed their disapproval such as Egypt and UAE.

ISIL: The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, also referred to as the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) is a terrorist group mainly operating in north-eastern Arab states but has also expanded into Libya. ISIL is globally unsupported and is considered a major security threat; there have been supposed links with them to Turkey on several occasions inducing political turbulence in MENA. GNC: The General National Congress was the official parliament of Libya until it was disbanded in the June 2014 elections. Islamist groups maintained an unofficial presence of the GNC as a parliament in .

Timeline of Events

February 21-29, 2008 “Operation Sun” takes place where 8,000 Turkish troops made way to northern Iraq to attack Kurdish rebel groups.

December 22, 2008 Prime Minister Ehud Olmert meets with Prime Minister Erdogan agreeing that Turkey would moderate the peace talks between Israel and Syria.

December 27, 2008 Israel launches an offensive in the Gaza Strip triggering Erdogan to backout of facilitating the peace talk between Israel and Syria. Erdogan calls the offensive “a crime against humanity.”

September 2, 2011 Turkey in an aim to cut ties with Israel, dismisses the Israeli ambassador to turkey, and the Turkish ambassador to Israel.

March 22, 2013 Netanyahu and Erdogan discuss the flotilla incident where nine Turkish citizens died. Both the Turkish and the Israeli ambassadors return to their posts in Ankara and Tel Aviv.

February 21, 2015 “Operation Shah Euphrates”, a Turkish operation in Northern Syria takes place. Turkish troops were there in an aim to relocate the shrine of Suleyman Shah as the area was supposedly Turkish territory.

August 24, 2016 “Operation Euphrates Shield” begins. Turkish troops supported by Free Syrian Army fighters assume control over areas in northwest Syria forcing Kurdish away.

January 20, 2018 25,000 Free Syrian Army fighters support Turkish troops in the capturing of several towns and villages in order to take control of the Afrin region in northwest Syria.

November 2019, Libya and Turkey sign a maritime deal, creating an EZZ in the Mediterranean sea stirring conflict with the Mediterranean states.

December 10, 2019 Turkey and Libya begin exploration in the Mediterranean and drilling of hydrocarbons. This raised international criticism especially from Greece and Egypt.

December 15, 2019 President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi condemns the Libyan civil war, the weaponry and militia that forced its way across Libyan borders to Egypt.

December 26, 2019 President Erdogan sends Turkish troops to Libya after the request from the GNA faction. This was the first time Turkey sends troops to Libya, before this they had only sent military equipment.

January 1, 2020 The Arab league calls on the international community to limit intervention in Libya as a result of Turkey’s increasing involvement.

April 26, 2020 Despite agreeing to hold a ceasefire following the up and rising COVID-19 pandemic, it is reported that Turkey had sent military tanks and weapons into Libya.

August 11, 2020 President Erdogan states that Turkey is considering cutting ties with the UAE, including dismissing their ambassador following the UAE’s announcement to normalize ties with Israel. The Turkish foreign ministry states that it was “hypocritical behavior” of the UAE.

September 15, 2020 The Israel-UAE peace agreement is ratified – diplomatic ties between he two nations are fully normalized.

Relevant Treaties and Resolutions

The Arab Free Trade Area Agreement (1997)

This agreement ensures that the Agreement to Facilitate and Develop Inter-Arab Trade is consistent and keeps pace with the conditions and needs of all Arab states and economic interests as well as develop economic and trade relations among Arab states and between them and the outside world.

The Libyan Political Agreement

This agreement was made to create a single unified government out of the opposing sides. It was signed in Morocco.

Failed Solution Attempts

Many peace talks, conventions, national dialogues, and came to no avail. One side almost always instigated the fighting again by its assertion that it was the legitimate government and began the fighting once more or its rejection of a ceasefire. The GNA’s support from abroad fueled further fighting, and Turkey’s intervention and want for a political and military sphere of influence in the MENA region did not help in the de-escalation of the civil war. The LNA also received, albeit not as much, aid from nearby Arab countries who feared their sovereignty would be lost and the possibility of a Turkish presence so near to their borders.

Possible Solutions

One possible solution is the establishment of a free trade area between Turkey and the Arab countries, to ease trade regulations, lower tariffs, and make goods from both sides easily available. This, however, would not be easily applied to all member states of the Arab League, especially those who have already boycott Turkish products. This solution could also include financing and supporting Turkish endeavors in the MENA region. Another possible solution would be to impose, on Turkey, indefinite or conditional (such as stopping interference in the MENA region) sanctions. This would decrease Turkey’s GDP by over 10%. This is a possible, but difficult to implement, solution, seeing as a big portion of these Arab countries’ exports go to Turkey.

Useful Links

http://dspace.ankara.edu.tr/xmlui/bitstream/handle/20.500.12575/51881/4657.pdf?sequence= 1&isAllowed=y https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1362939042000338818 https://www.academia.edu/download/31394048/Bishku_Middle_East_Policy_2012.pdf https://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/north-africa/2020/06/24/Arab-League-rejects- illegitimate-foreign-interventions-in-Libya https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/whos-who-libyas-war https://www.dailysabah.com/politics/libya-starts-implementing-joint-military-programs-with- turkey-defense-minister-says/news https://www.economywatch.com/world_economy/turkey/export-import.html https://www.euronews.com/2019/10/16/what-is-the-pkk-and-what-s-behind-turkey-s-war-in- syria-euronews-answers

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