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Jamna Auto Industries Ltd. (Jai) JAMNA AUTO INDUSTRIES LTD. (JAI) December 13, 2017 CMP: `64 Time Horizon – 12 Months Target: `95 Key Data (In ` mn) FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018E FY2019E Bloomberg Code JAMNA IN Net Sales 10,951 12,558 12,995 14,359 16,728 V NSE Code JAMNAAUTO EBITDA 945 1,622 1,830 2,091 2,519 EBITDA Margin (%) 8.6% 12.9% 14.1% 14.6% 15.1% Sector AUTOMOBILE & ANCILLARY PAT 294 715 1,047 1,061 1,417 Industry AUTOMOBILE COMPONENT - SPRING A Ev/Sales (x) 2.4 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.7 Face Value (`) 1 Ev/EBITDA (x) 28.2 16.4 14.7 13.5 11.0 BV per share (` ) L 9.04 P/E (x) 86.8 35.7 24.3 24.0 18.0 Dividend yield (%) 1.09% Price Performance CY13 CY14 CY15 CY16 YTD U 52 Week H/L (`) 68.7/30.15 Absolute -33% 98% 100% 22% 89% E Market Cap (` mn. ) 25661 Relative (NIFTY 500) -37% 60% 101% 18% 58% Shareholding Pattern (as on Sept’17) Relative stock performance (Dec 2016=100) Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 200 P 180 Promoters 48% 48% 48% 48% 160 I Non-Institutional 44% 44% 43% 42% 140 120 C Institutional 8% 8% 9% 10% 100 Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 80 k JAMNAAUTO NIFTY 500 Source: Company Reports, Anand Rathi Research, Ace Equity Analyst: Ridhi Mehta Anand Rathi Research [email protected] JAMNA AUTO INDUSTRIES LTD. (JAI) One of the World’s Leading Player in Leaf Springs Jamna Auto Industries (JAI) is the largest leaf spring manufacturer in India and the third largest globally (in terms of installed capacity). The company is the market leader with 73% market share in the Indian OEM segment and produces over 500 modes of springs for OEMs and ~2000 parts for After Market. In FY10 JAI tied up with Ridewell Corporation in the US to bring the latest technology in air suspension system and provide world-class rides in buses. Its suspension products include air suspension and bogie suspension systems and lift axles. It has built a strong dealer network through its subsidiary — Jai Suspension Systems LLP — throughout the country to support the growing domestic aftermarket demand. The company sells springs under the JAI brand in the aftermarket and its products command a premium to other players. It has a well established client base supplying to major domestic customers such as Tata Motors, Ashok Leyland, Volvo Eicher Commercial Vehicles and foreign players such as Daimler India. JAI’s Q2 revenue and EBITDA grew by 27% at Rs.3861mn and Rs.503mn y-o-y, led by traction in higher tonnage vehicles. EBITDAM however, decline by marginally at 13%, hit by subdued volumes in the replacement market owing to GST uncertainty, and discounts given to OEMs on higher volumes. Mix of conventional vs. parabolic springs stands at 75:25, with new MHCVs being introduced with a higher share of parabolic springs. We expect JAI’s revenues to grow at 13% CAGR over the next three years owing to steep uptrend in the MHCV OEM segment. The company is likely to draw benefits of operating leverage due to double digit top-line growth. It’s margins are expected to improve from 8.6% in FY2015 to 15.1% in FY2019E on account of change in product mix towards higher margins products. Jamna Auto (JAI) is an ideal play on the ongoing upturn in CV demand given its 73% share in domestic OEMs markets. With GST implementation, we believe organised players such as JAI have tremendous potential to gain market share in the aftermarket segment. We recommend Buy with a price target of Rs.95—18x FY19E EPS. Source: Company Reports, Anand Rathi Research 2 Anand Rathi Research JAMNA AUTO INDUSTRIES LTD. (JAI) Diversified Portfolio: Products & Markets Four Products Conventional Parabolic Leaf Lift Axle Air Suspension Leaf Spring Spring Four Markets OE India OE Exports AM India AM Exports Source: Company Reports, Anand Rathi Research 3 Anand Rathi Research JAMNA AUTO INDUSTRIES LTD. (JAI) Product leadership in Suspension solution Along With New Product Launch to Boost top line Market Share-OEM India Product Wise - Revenue Lift axle Lift axle 4% components 0% Others 27% Loose leaves 19% Jamna Leaf springs Auto 77% 73% Spring Leaves are an integral part of suspension geometry of commercial vehicles. JAI is the largest domestic Spring Leaves manufacturing company. The company enjoys a market share of 73% in the domestic OEMs market in Q2 FY18 from 60% in FY12, on account of the increasing share of business and improving mix of parabolic springs. Conventional springs contribute 77% of the revenues while the parabolic springs account for 19%. The recently introduced lift axles constitute 4% of the top-line. The company has introduced new products in the Suspension segment like Parabolic Spring Leaves, Lift Axle and Air Suspension and expects the new products to account for 33% of the business. Parabolic Spring Leaves has about 10% higher profitability. Rising contribution of new products will also lead to higher overall EBITDA margin. Management expects the market share to remain at this level, and the mix of parabolic springs to increase in the overall pie. Source: Company Reports, Anand Rathi Research 4 Anand Rathi Research JAMNA AUTO INDUSTRIES LTD. (JAI) Augmenting capacity and capability Production Spring Capacity MT (in Lakhs) Global Leaf Market Scale Leaf Spring Manufacturer Base Country Capacity Rassini Mexico 2,50,000 2.1 2.1 Hendrickson Canada & Mexico 2,16,000 1.8 1.8 1.8 Jamna Auto Industries Ltd. India 2,10,000 1.5 NHK Springs Co. Ltd. Japan & Thailand 1,50,000 Dong Feng China 1,05,000 FAW China 1,00,000 MBHA Spain 60,000 Olgen Turkey Turkey 40,000 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 Q2 FY18 LPDN Europe Europe 26,500 CV OEMs in India and international markets use a combination of conventional/parabolic springs based on the truck application. With its existing installed capacity, JAI is the third largest spring manufacturer globally and the largest in India. In FY17, JAI operationalized an integrated R&D Centre in Pune. Also a manufacturing unit for leaf & parabolic springs was set up in Lucknow by the subsidiary entity Jai Suspension Systems, LLP. With the new capacity at Hosur of 30,000 TPA, JAI has increased its leaf spring capacity from 180k MT to ~210k MT. With this, the Company and its subsidiary entity now have 9 strategically located manufacturing units. Source: Company Reports, Anand Rathi Research, NASSCOM 5 Anand Rathi Research JAMNA AUTO INDUSTRIES LTD. (JAI) 9 state-of-art strategically located plants, manufacturing high-tech suspension system 6 Anand Rathi Research JAMNA AUTO INDUSTRIES LTD. (JAI) Medium Term Strategy with focuse on Value Creation Source: Company Reports, Anand Rathi Research, Mckinsey 7 Anand Rathi Research JAMNA AUTO INDUSTRIES LTD. (JAI) Recovery in OEM segment coupled with Aftermarket focus to Drive Growth Particulars FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 Auto Component Industry: Turnover 204670 216094 211765 234869 255635 292184 4000 20.0% Growth% 8.7% 5.6% -2.0% 11.1% 8.8% 14.3% 14.3% 15.0% Exports 42729 52690 61487 68522 70916 73128 11.1% 3000 2556 Growth 40.7% 23.3% 16.7% 11.4% 3.5% 3.1% 8.7% 10.0% 5.6% 2349 2922 2047 2118 Imports 66736 74463 77160 82931 90662 90571 8.8% 5.0% Growth 34.3% 11.6% 3.6% 7.5% 9.3% -0.1% 2000 2161 Turnover in Crsin Turnover 0.0% Aftermarket 29585 31788 35603 39875 44660 56096 -2.0% Growth 20.1% 7.4% 12.0% 12.0% 12.0% 25.6% 1000 -5.0% FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 From a mere supplier to OEMs, JAI has gradually become a partner of OEMs at the product development stage. Further, the company has been prompt in terms of requirements of the OEMs and launched Parabolic Spring Leaves in India to aid smoother ride, particularly for the Passenger Vehicles. JAI has strong focus on After Market segment, where the company typically enjoys 15-20% higher profitability. Indian Spring After Market size is ~Rs.15bn and JAI has a market share of ~15%. Further, revenues from the overseas’ After Market stand at Rs 250- 300mn. Leaf springs have a replacement cycle of ~9-12 months. Hence, the aftermarket is quite large. At present, a large portion of the leaf spring aftermarket is catered to by small scale/unorganised players. After market, which is estimated to be greater than the OEM market (aftermarket size is pegged at Rs.1200cr-1500cr), presents a huge opportunity for company. With small product life cycle of Spring Leaves and pick-up in industrial activities in India, we expect Indian After Market for Spring Leaves to outpace the OEMs growth. We expect JAI’s after-market revenue to double in next two-three years given its strong dealers network and rising numbers of organized fleet operators, share of organized players is expected to significantly pick-up. This will be further aided by implementation of GST. This will lead to significant improvement in the overall profitability as well as de-risking of the revenue stream going forward. Source: Company Reports, Anand Rathi Research, ACMA 8 Anand Rathi Research JAMNA AUTO INDUSTRIES LTD. (JAI) Uptick in MHCV Cycle Domestic Market share FoFY16 In Lakhs FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 Passenger Passenger Vehicles 31.46 32.31 30.88 32.21 34.65 37.92 Vehicles Commercial 14% Vehicles Commercial Vehicles 9.29 8.32 6.99 6.98 7.87 8.10 3% Three Three Wheelers 8.79 8.40 8.30 9.49 9.34 7.83 Wheelers Two Wheelers 154.27 157.44 168.83 184.89 188.30 199.29 3% Two Grand Total 203.82 206.48 215.00 233.58 240.16 253.14 Wheelers 80% After two consecutive years of double-digit dip, the MHCV industry resurged strongly in FY2015, reporting a healthy growth.
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