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Fiem Industries L BUY L TP: 620 Strong Clientele, LED Shift, BS-VI, New Alliances to Illuminate Growth Path

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Fiem Industries L BUY L TP: 620 Strong Clientele, LED Shift, BS-VI, New Alliances to Illuminate Growth Path Initiating Coverage Initiating INDIA l Institutional Research l Automobile l June 6, 2019 Fiem Industries l BUY l TP: 620 Strong clientele, LED shift, BS-VI, new alliances to illuminate growth path Fiem Industries (FIEM), one of the leading Indian manufacturers of automotive Target Price Rs620 Key Data lighting & signalling equipment and rear-view mirrors, is largely focused on 2- Bloomberg Code FIEM IN wheeler (2W) industry with HMSI and TVS Motor as major clients. Notably, the CMP* Rs458 Curr Shares O/S (mn) 13.2 company’s ten-year sales CAGR is almost double of 2W industry volume CAGR. FIEM Diluted Shares O/S(mn) 13.2 is all set to continue its growth momentum owing to the emergence of newer trends Upside 35% Mkt Cap (Rsbn/USDmn) 5.9/85.7 like the shift towards LED & increased focus on safety, BSVI implementation, its Price Performance (%)* 52 Wk H / L (Rs) 890/404.5 1M 6M 1Yr 5 Year H / L (Rs) 1510/404.5 strong focus on R&D and good growth prospects of its major clients. FIEM trades at FIEM IN (5.1) (20.4) (47.5) Daily Vol. (3M Avg.) 21,940 a deep discount to not only its own historical average multiples (5Y/10Y basis) but NIFTY 1.5 9.6 11.1 also to its peers’ despite having a comparable financial profile. Regular dividend *as on 4 June 2019; Source: Bloomberg, MNCL Research payout and creeping acquisitions by promoters are key positives. We remain Shareholding pattern (%)* convinced with FIEM’s growth strategy and initiate coverage with a BUY rating and Mar-19 Dec-18 Sep-18 Jun-18 a TP of Rs620. Promoter 64.3 63.6 63.6 63.6 . LED shift in 2W industry offers a multi-year growth opportunity: Currently, the FIIs 11.4 13.2 14.4 14.2 penetration level of LED headlamps is very low, ~20% in 2W industry. DIIs 7.4 7.6 7.6 7.5 Nevertheless, despite LED headlamps costing at least twice the normal halogen Others 16.8 15.6 14.4 14.7 lamps, LED adoption has started gaining momentum owing to several benefits of Source: BSE, *as on 4 June 2019 LED lamps such as higher energy efficiency, better illumination, and higher longevity. This shift is creating a big new opportunity for leading players in the MNCL vs. Bloomberg Consensus* lighting space such as FIEM. The company’s biggest clients, both HMSI and TVS Particulars FY20E FY21E Motor, which mostly outperform the industry growth, are keen to adopt LED (Rs mn) MNCL BBG Var (%) MNCL BBG Var (%) headlamps. Hence, even with single-digit growth in the 2W industry, FIEM is Sales 15,734 16,227 (3.0) 16,790 18,222 (7.9) poised to maintain its growth momentum in the coming years. EBITDA 1,683 1,787 (5.8) 1,764 2,054 (14.1) . In-house R&D & Pan India presence - strong backbone: With the help of three in- PAT 623 700 (11.0) 678 833 (18.6) *as on 4 June 2019 Source: Bloomberg, MNCL Research Estimates house world-class R&D/Design centres located in India, Italy and Japan, FIEM develops modern designs and meets the clients’ exact specifications and FIEM’s stellar growth path expectations. Besides, given the company’s pan India presence (ten state-of-the- art manufacturing facilities located close to the OEM customers), FIEM offers cost- effective logistics and in-time delivery. Hence, the company will continue to maintain a strong relationship with its clients and its strong growth momentum. Foray into new products to provide additional growth: FIEM has entered into a joint venture (JV) with Aisan Industry, Japan and Toyota Tsusho India to manufacture Fuel Pump Module (a necessary component to meet BS-VI norms). This JV company, Aisan Fiem Automotives India, has already secured orders from Bajaj Auto for its initial capacity of 2.4mn pieces per annum and has plans to expand the Source: MNCL Research, SIAM, FIEM’s Annual Reports capacity. The management expects to generate sales of ~Rs2bn in FY21 from this JV. Fiem trading at a deep discount Besides, FIEM has already started its high-class moulds/tools manufacturing business in a JV with Kyowa, Japan. Despite having strong potential of these JVs, we have not accounted for them while valuing the company. Also, in technical collaboration with Toyo Denso, Japan the company is set to produce Bank Angle Sensor, a safety component for 2Ws. All these factors will provide FIEM additional growth impetus FY20 onwards. Trading at a deep discount vs. peers, a compelling investment opportunity: FIEM has been trading at a deep discount vs. peers despite its auto business generating strong return ratios. However, the company’s overall return ratio looks subdued due to its investment in LED luminaires. We have valued FIEM on SOTP and have Source: MNCL Research not assigned any value to its investment in the LED business & JVs. We value its Awanish Chandra strong auto business at 12x its FY21E earnings to arrive at a TP of Rs620, factoring [email protected]; 91 22 4445 1091 in 8%/11% CAGR in revenue/earnings over FY19-21E and recommend a BUY. Key Anubhav Rawat risk to our call: A subdued growth performance from HMSI and TVS Motor. [email protected]; 91 22 4445 1092 Y/E Mar (Rsmn) Revenue YoY (%) EBITDA EBITDA (%) Adj PAT YoY (%) Adj EPS RoE (%) RoCE (%) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) FY17 10,141 2.8 1173 11.6 423 (26.0) 32.2 12.6 11.5 30.4 12.7 FY18 12,384 22.1 1,407 11.4 503 18.8 38.2 11.7 10.5 24.3 9.8 FY19 14,440 16.6 1,553 10.8 555 10.4 42.2 12.0 11.2 10.9 4.9 FY20E 15,734 9.0 1,683 10.7 623 12.2 47.3 12.3 11.5 9.7 4.4 FY21E 16,790 6.7 1,764 10.5 678 8.9 51.5 12.2 11.5 8.9 4.0 Source: Company, MNCL Research Estimates MNCL Research is also available on Bloomberg and Thomson Reuters Initiating Coverage MNCL Research is also available on Bloomberg and Thomson Reuters Index Investment Thesis in Charts ................................................................................................................. 3 Eclipsed by misplaced valuations, a compelling investment opportunity ............................................ 4 LED shift in 2W space is a value growth catalyst for FIEM ...................................................................... 6 Advantages of LED lamps ...................................................................................................................... 6 Move towards BS-VI implementation and Electric Vehicles will be big catalysts ................................. 6 LED adoption has a long runway ahead ................................................................................................ 7 FIEM on strong footing - An early mover and ahead of the curve ........................................................ 8 In-house R&D & Pan India Presence – The backbone of FIEM’s secular growth ................................. 10 Strategically located manufacturing plants ......................................................................................... 11 Product diversification and new alliances promise strong future ...................................................... 12 Joint venture opportunities................................................................................................................. 13 Aisan Fiem Automotives India Pvt. Ltd. - JV in India to capitalize on BS-VI opportunities ............... 13 Fiem Kyowa (HK) Mould Company Limited - JV in Hong Kong for die/tool manufacturing ............. 13 Technical collaboration opportunities ................................................................................................ 14 Technical collaboration with Toyodenso Co. Ltd., Japan to manufacture Bank Angle Sensor ......... 14 Technical collaboration with Aisan Industry Co. Ltd., Japan, to get into canister business ............. 15 Subsidiaries – Supporting R&D activities ............................................................................................ 15 An established 2W auto ancillary company with strong clientele and diversified product lines ........ 16 A shining star in Indian automotive lighting landscape ...................................................................... 16 Strong client profile with marquee names .......................................................................................... 17 Product diversification provides business comfort ............................................................................. 19 LED Segment ..................................................................................................................................... 23 LED luminaires ..................................................................................................................................... 23 LED display systems............................................................................................................................. 23 Strong financials ................................................................................................................................ 24 Sales momentum to continue ............................................................................................................. 24 Margin to stabilize at current levels .................................................................................................... 24 Despite slowdown in 2W industry, earnings growth momentum looks promising ............................ 25 Return ratios and working capital cycle .............................................................................................. 25 Recent creeping acquisitions, consistent dividend and full tax paying status – A strong positive ...... 27 FIEM - A standout player among its peers ........................................................................................
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