PUBLIC OPINION IN UKRAINE 2009 FINDINGS FROM AN IFES SURVEY

Project Funded by the United States Agency for International Development Is Ukraine on the Path of Stability or Instability? Trend Data

76% 74%

47% 43% Stability 33% Instability

21% 13% 15% 6% 7%

Feb 2005 Nov 2005 Sep 2007 Oct 2008 Nov 2009

“Do you think Ukraine is on the right track toward stability and prosperity in the future, or do you think Ukraine is on a path toward instability and chaos?” (n=1,502) Majority of Ukrainians Likely to Vote in 2010 Presidential Elections

Likelihood to vote in January 2010 Presidential Elections NATIONAL Northern Definitely 67% VL Very will not vote, 4% 20% SL unlikely, DK/NR, 2% 3% Western Somewhat Kyiv unlikely, 77% VL Eastern Central 59% VL 3% 17% SL 70% VL 50% VL 28% SL 18% SL 32% SL Somewhat Southern Likely, 72%VL 21% 13% SL Very Likely, 67%

AR Crimea 57% VL 32% SL

“Now, let’s turn our attention to the upcoming presidential elections on January 17, 2010. How likely are you to vote in 3 these elections? Are you very likely, somewhat likely, somewhat unlikely, or very unlikely to vote?” (n=1,502) Issues on which Winning Presidential Candidate should Focus

Issue % of cases % out of total; multiple responses allowed; ranked from highest to lowest according to citations (n=1,497) 1) Creating Jobs 71% 2) Reducing inflation 56% 3) Reducing corruption 48% 4) Improving health care services 33% 5) Creating political stability 33% 6) Addressing the gas situation with Russia 17% 7) The status of the Russian language 9% 8) Improving the quality of education 8% 9) Reform of electoral code (to elect candidates not parties) 6% 10) Status of Ukraine and EU 3% 11) Status of Ukraine and NATO 1% Don’t know/Refused 7% “On this card are several issues that are being discussed in Ukraine and are a focus of the campaign for president. To you, which three issues are most important for the winning presidential candidate to address as soon as they take office?” Positive and Negative Impressions of Prominent Politicians (in %)

Negative Don't Know Positive

14% 11% 22% 22% 32% 32% 31% 30% 4% 42% 8% 23% 3% 24% 12% 9% 4% 18% 83% 69% 60% 67% 65% 55% 50% 56% 54%

“I will now name several prominent politicians. For each of these, please tell me whether you have very positive, somewhat positive, somewhat negative, or very negative impressions of the politician?” (n=1,498) Presidential Candidate Support

Viktor Yanukovych 31.2% Yulia Tymoshenko 19.1% Serhiy Tygypko 4.8% Arseniy Yatsenyuk 4.7% Petro Symonenko 3.8% Viktor Yuschenko 3.5% Volodymyr Lytvyn 2.8% Oleh Tyahnybok 1.8% Inna Bohoslovska 0.7% Anatoliy Hrytsenko 0.7% Other 2.4% Will not vote [Volunteered] 5.0% Against all 7.9% DK/Refused 11.6%

“Please continue to look at this list of possible candidates. If the Presidential Elections took place next Sunday and the voting list included the following candidates, which of the candidates would you vote for?” (n=1,502) Regional Presidential Candidate Vote Preferences

North

22.8%

20.6% 2.8% 6.1% West

1.1% East

36.2% 49.8% 12.5% 8.2% 3.6% 33.5% 22.1% Kyiv 5.4% 4.4% 5.5% 17.3% 15.9% 10.3% 6.2% 7.2% 3.2% 4.9% 0.0% 3.8% 2.1% Center

51.6%

Yanukovych 5.3% Tymoshenko 5.3% 3.2% 44.6% Tygypko 1.1% Yatsenyuk South 7.0% Yuschenko 7.0% 0.5% 1.1% AR Crimea 7