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Literature Review on Future Development of the Baltic Sea and Recommendations for Safety Modelling

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Literature Review on Future Development of the Baltic Sea and Recommendations for Safety Modelling Working Report 2006-111 Literature Review on Future Development of the Baltic Sea and Recommendations for Safety Modelling Anne-Maj Lahdenperä December 2006 POSIVA OY FI-27160 OLKILUOTO, FINLAND Tel +358-2-8372 31 Fax +358-2-8372 3709 Working Report 2006-111 Literature Review on Future Development of the Baltic Sea and Recommendations for Safety Modelling Anne-Maj Lahdenperä Pöyry Environment Oy December 2006 Base maps: ©National Land Survey, permission 41/MYY/06 Working Reports contain information on work in progress or pending completion. The conclusions and viewpoints presented in the report are those of author(s) and do not necessarily coincide with those of Posiva. Literature review on future development of the Baltic Sea and recommendations for safety modelling ABSTRACT The report represents the summary of the main factors, which affects the future development and state of the Baltic Sea. The emphasis is on land uplift, shoreline displacement, and physical, chemical and biological characteristics of the sea. In addition, historical evolution of the Baltic Sea after the last ice age and potential impacts of the different climate scenarios are presented. The Baltic Sea has an important influence on the development of the geosphere- biosphere interface zone at Olkiluoto. Thus, it is important to take account all these factors in the Safety Modelling of the nuclear waste repository. Different models have been used to evaluate land uplift at Olkiluoto and changes in the sea and land area, especially in the interface zone. The main parameters have been monitored satisfactory way at the Olkiluoto offshore. Based on the present sea sediment stratigraphy, overburden, topography and vegetation it has been fairly well estimated coming future land and sea areas of the Olkiluoto Island and its surroundings. According to the results, Olkiluoto will be part of the continent during the next decade. In the shallow shores of Olkiluoto, the amounts of common reed are increasing naturally, resulting in paludification. The spatial and temporal changes at Olkiluoto can be estimated and modelled more detailed by using the well focused research sites and more accurate results. In addition, more information is needed on development of the watershed areas, lakes, rivers and vegetation and on sedimentation and erosion processes, hydrology, quality and quantity of seabed sediments and stratigraphy, element budgets and recharge and discharge areas, especially at the geosphere-biosphere interface zones. Keywords: Baltic Sea, shoreline development, climate, sea-bed sediments, geosphere- biosphere interface zone, past and future development Kirjallisuusselvitys Itämeren kehitykseen vaikuttavista tekijöistä ja suosituksia loppusijoituksen turvallisuusperusteiden mallinnukseen. TIIVISTELMÄ Raportissa esitettään yhteenveto Itämeren tulevaan kehitykseen vaikuttavista tärkeim- mistä tekijöistä. Pääpaino on maankohoamisen, rannansiirtymisen, ja merialueen fysikaalisten, kemiallisten ja biologisten tekijöiden kuvaamisessa. Lisäksi tarkastellaan Itämeren historiallista kehitystä viimeisen jääkauden jälkeen sekä eri ilmastoskenaari- oiden perusteella aiheutuvia potentiaalisia muutoksia. Itämerellä on merkittävä vaikutus Olkiluodon geosfääri-biosfääri rajapinnan kehi- tykseen, joten on tärkeää huomioida eri tekijät ydinjätteiden loppusijoituksen turval- lisuustodisteisiin liittyvässä mallinnuksessa (Safety Modelling). Erilaisten mallien avulla on arvioitu Olkiluodon maankohoamista ja siitä aiheutuvia muutoksia maa- ja merialueilla sekä erityisesti niiden rajapinnoilla. Olkiluodon merialueelta on monito- rointituloksia kohtalaisen hyvin useimpien parametrien osalta. Nykyisen merenpohja- sedimenttitiedon sekä saaren maaperän, topografian ja kasvillisuuden kehityksen perusteella voidaan jo tietyssä määrin arvioida Olkiluodon saaren ja merialueen tulevaa kehitystä. Tulosten mukaan Olkiluoto on osa mannerta jo seuraavan vuosisadan kulu- essa. Myös ranta-alueiden ruovittuminen ja muun kasvillisuuden lisääntyminen aiheut- taa paikallisesti merkittäviä muutoksia. Oikein kohdennettujen tutkimuskohteiden ja tarkempien tulosten perusteella voidaan arvioida ja mallintaa alueelliset ja ajalliset muutokset Olkiluodon kehityksessä yksityis- kohtaisemmin. Lisätietoa tarvitaan mm. maankohoamisesta johtuvasta valuma-alueiden järvien, jokien ja kasvillisuuden kehityksestä, sedimentaatio- ja eroosioprosesseista, hydrologiasta, merenpohjasedimenttien laadusta ja stratigrafiasta, ainetaseista sekä tule- vista ja poistuvista ainemääristä erityisesti geosfääri-biosfääri rajapinnoilla.. Avainsanat: Itämeri, rannansiirtyminen, ilmasto, merenpohjasedimentit, geosfääri- biosfääri rajapinta, historiallinen ja tuleva kehitys ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This study has been carried out by Pöyry Environment Oy and is based on the research contract for Posiva Oy. On behalf of Posiva the study has been supervised by Ari T.K. Ikonen. Besides him, the author wish to thank to experts Jens-Ove Näslund and Ulrik Kautsky from SKB, Martti Hakanen from University of Helsinki, Laboratory of Radiochemistry, Lasse Koskinen and Petteri Pitkänen from Technical Research Centre of Finland and Robert Broed from FACILIA AB, all have reviewed and given useful comments for the report. 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT TIIVISTELMÄ ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 1 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................... 3 2 THE BALTIC SEA.................................................................................................. 7 3 PREVIOUS CLIMATE.......................................................................................... 15 3.1 Recent Glaciation........................................................................................ 16 3.2 Permafrost .................................................................................................. 20 4 FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE AND SCENARIOS FOR FINLAND...................... 25 5 QUATERNARY STRATIGRAPHY OF THE SEA-BOTTOM SEDIMENTS .......... 41 5.1 Late-glacial sediments ................................................................................ 41 5.2 Postglacial deposits .................................................................................... 42 5.3 Sedimentation ............................................................................................. 45 5.4 Quaternary stratigraphy of the sea sediments at the Olkiluoto offshore ..... 46 5.5 Postglacial palaeoseismicity ....................................................................... 54 5.6 Palaeohydrological evolution ...................................................................... 55 6 CHARACTERISTICS OF THE BALTIC SEA AT PRESENT ............................... 59 6.1 Shoreline development ............................................................................... 59 6.2 Sea-bottom sediments ................................................................................ 73 6.3 Coastal water system.................................................................................. 82 6.4 Present water level variations in the Baltic Sea .......................................... 83 6.5 Water balance and water circulation........................................................... 84 6.6 Salinity and water mixing ............................................................................ 85 6.7 Temperature ............................................................................................... 91 6.8 Oxygen........................................................................................................ 93 6.9 Runoff ......................................................................................................... 97 6.10 Radioactivity................................................................................................ 99 7 CONCLUSIONS................................................................................................. 103 REFERENCES ........................................................................................................... 105 APPENDICES............................................................................................................. 125 2 3 1 INTRODUCTION The Olkiluoto Island has been selected for the location of a repository for spent nuclear fuel in Finland. SKB is conducting for site investigations at two sites; in southeast of Forsmark in the municipality of Östhammar in northern Uppland and in Oskarshamn area adjacent to the Oskarshamn Nuclear Power Plant in Oskarshamn Municipality. All three sites situate in the coast of the Baltic Sea. This report represents the summary of available information for the factors, which affect the future development and thus state of the Baltic Sea and should be taken into account in the modelling for safety assessment (Figure 1). The geological history of the Baltic Sea has been diverse resulting in profound changes in the hydrographic conditions and subsequently also in chemical, physical and biological features of the sea and its catchment area. The emphasis is on land uplift, shoreline displacement, future climate and physical, chemical and biological characteristics of the Baltic Sea, e.g. quaternary stratigraphy, salinity, temperature, sea bottom sediments, radioactivity, runoff and the information needed in the modelling of geosphere-biosphere interface zone for the long term safety. The Baltic Sea is an essential part of the geosphere-biosphere interface and has to be understood and analysed in a safety assessment
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