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'Is Communist Party Rule Sustainable in China?'

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'Is Communist Party Rule Sustainable in China?' Discussion Paper 22 ‘IS COMMUNIST PARTY RULE SUSTAINABLE IN CHINA?’ Yongnian ZHENG © Copyright China Policy Institute July 2007 China House University of Nottingham University Park Nottingham NG7 2RD United Kingdom Tel: +44 (0)115 846 7769 Fax: +44 (0)115 846 7900 Email: [email protected] Website: www.chinapolicyinstitute.org The China Policy Institute was set up to analyse critical policy challenges faced by China in its rapid development. Its goals are to help expand the knowledge and understanding of contemporary China in Britain, Europe and worldwide, to help build a more informed dialogue between China and the UK and Europe, and to contribute to government and business strategies. 1 ‘Is Communist Party Rule Sustainable in China?’ Yongnian Zheng Abstract In this paper, the author attempts to answer the question: ‘Is Communist Party Rule Sustainable in China?’ It is widely believed that the rise of China has presented one of the most important global challenges facing all major powers this century. As the only ruling party, the sustainability of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) can legitimately be questioned. Among many uncertainties about China, the key is undoubtedly the CCP. Once deemed the vanguard of the Chinese State, the CCP’s failing ideological appeal, its equally unattractive and clumsy structure, and its disillusioned party cadres are increasingly making the Party’s sustainability problematic. China’s ‘open door’ policy and the rapid globalisation process in the post­Cold War era have generated increasingly high pressure for changes in the leadership of the CCP. To sustain its rule, the CCP now needs to review its continued relevance to the fast­ changing economic, social and political climate in China. Party reform appears to be the most logical and urgent choice, and whilst the CCP leadership has engaged in various forms of this, there is no clear direction given for the Party’s transformation. Although there is a fast­growing body of literature on China’s development and its future, the issue of the CCP has been marginalised in the scholarly community. More often than not, when scholars attempt to examine the development and future of China, they tend to focus on factors other than the CCP itself, even though they realise its importance. Most arguments have centred on China’s economic development and the impact of that on other aspects of development, including the CCP. In recent years, there have been some efforts to bring the CCP back into this analysis; nevertheless, it remains under­studied. In an attempt to answer the question of whether the CCP rule is sustainable, this paper focuses on the Party itself. It first discusses the nature of the CCP, and then examines how the CCP has transformed itself. It also places the CCP in the context of global capitalism. Finally, the paper assesses the sustainability of the CCP from all of these perspectives. 2 ‘Is Communist Party Rule Sustainable in China?’ * YONGNIAN ZHENG The modern prince, the myth­prince, cannot be a real person, a concrete individual. It can only be an organism, a complex element of society in which a collective will, which has already been recognised and has to some extent asserted itself in action, begins to take concrete form. History has already provided this organism, and it is the political party …. Antonio Gramsci: Prison Notebooks ‘Is Communist Party Rule Sustainable in China?’ This was the title for the first debate of Reframing China Policy, organised by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a Washington­based think tank. 1 In the debate, two leading China experts in the United States, Roderick MacFarquhar (from Harvard University) and Andrew Nathan (from Columbia University), presented rebuttals to each other’s position, with MacFarquhar arguing that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will not be able to sustain itself and Nathan taking the opposite view. 2 Whilst each presented plenty of evidence to support his case, none of it is convincing. One can reasonably argue that it will be a difficult if not impossible enterprise to answer such a big question; but exactly because it is a big question, both the scholarly community, and policy circles as well, have tried to answer it, and the amount of attention being paid to it seems to be justifiable. It is widely believed that the rise of China has presented one of the most important global challenges facing all major powers this century. As the only ruling party, the CCP’s sustainability can legitimately be questioned. It has not been easy for the scholarly community to answer this question. Indeed, immediately after the crackdown on the pro­democracy movement in 1989, MacFarquhar predicted that the days of the CCP in China were numbered,3 and he was not alone at that time in making such a prediction. Of course, contemporaneous arguments were that the CCP would go back to a very traditional and highly centralised rule after the crackdown. No one predicted that the late Deng Xiaoping would make a southern tour and initiate an ever more radical movement of decentralisation, which fundamentally altered the direction of change in China. On reaching the post­Deng era, the question at issue has been repeatedly raised. 4 At the other end of the spectrum from MacFarquhar, optimists are beginning to view China as a model for other parts of the world.5 * Yongnian Zheng is Professor of Chinese Politics, Head of Research, China Policy Institute, School of Contemporary Chinese Studies, The University of Nottingham, UK. The paper was presented at the 2007 SNU­POSRI Conference on China Studies, co­organized by Institute for China Studies, Seoul National University and POSCO Research Institute (POSRI), Seoul, May 30, 2007. 1 ‘Reframing China Policy’: The Carnegie Debates, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Thursday, 5 October 2006. See http://www.carnegieendowment.org/events/index.cfm?fa=eventDetail&id=916&&prog=zch (accessed on February 19, 2007). 2 Ibid. 3 Roderick MacFarquhar, ‘The Anatomy of Collapse’, New York Reviews of Books, 26 September 1991. 4 For examples, see Minxin Pei, China’s Trapped Transition: The Limits of Developmental Autocracy (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 2006); and Gordon Chang, The Coming Collapse of China (New York: Random House, 2001). 5 For examples, Joshua Cooper Ramo, The Beijing Consensus (London: The Foreign Policy Centre, 2004); and Randall Peerenboom, China Modernizes: Threat to the West or Model for the Rest? (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2007). 3 Still others have made efforts to go beyond simply pessimistic and optimistic positions to reach a more balanced view on China’s future. 6 Among many uncertainties about China, the key is undoubtedly the CCP. Once deemed the vanguard of the Chinese State, the CCP’s failing ideological appeal, its equally unattractive and clumsy structure, and its disillusioned party cadres are increasingly making the Party’s sustainability problematic. China’s ‘open door’ policy and the rapid globalisation process in the post­Cold War era have generated increasingly high pressure for changes in the leadership of the CCP. To sustain its rule, the CCP now needs to review its continued relevance to the ongoing and fast­changing economic, social and political climates in China. Party reform appears to be the most logical and urgent choice, and whilst the CCP leadership has engaged in various forms of this, there is no clear direction given for the Party’s transformation. Although there is a fast­growing body of literature on China’s development and its future, the issue of the CCP has been marginalised in the scholarly community. More often than not, when scholars attempt to examine the development and future of China, they tend to focus on some other factors rather than the CCP itself, even though they realise its importance. Most arguments have centred on China’s economic development and the impact of that on other aspects of development, including the CCP. In recent years, there have been some efforts to bring the CCP back in; 7 nevertheless, it remains under­studied. In an attempt to answer the question of whether the CCP rule is sustainable, this paper focuses on the Party itself. It is divided into three parts: the first one discusses the nature of the CCP; the second examines how the CCP has transformed itself; and the third explores the relations between the CCP and global capitalism. Finally, there will be an assessment of the sustainability of the CCP, from all of these perspectives. Part I: The Nature of the CCP To answer the question of whether the CCP rule is sustainable, it is important to look at the nature of the CCP; strictly speaking, it is not a ‘political party’ by Western standards. The term ‘political parties’ emerged in the nineteenth century with the development of representative institutions and the expansion of suffrage in Europe and the United States, 8 and the expression initially referred to those ‘organizations whose goal was the capture of public office in electoral competition with one or more other parties’. 9 Perceptions of what constituted a party also differed; in continental Europe, scholars often regarded the party as the instrument of its membership and thus put an emphasis on party structure. This 6 For example, C. Fred Bergsten, Bates Gill, Nicholas R. Lardy and Derek Mitchell, China: The Balance Sheet – What the World Needs to Know Now About the Emerging Superpower (New York: PublicAffairs, 2006). 7 For examples, Bruce J. Dickson, Red Capitalists in China: The Party, Private Entrepreneurs, and Prospects for Political Change (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2003); Wang Gungwu and Zheng Yongnian, (eds.), Damage Control: The Chinese Communist Party in the Jiang Zemin Era (Singapore: Eastern Universities Press, 2003); Kjeld Erik Brodsgaard and Zheng Yongnian, (eds.), Bringing the Party Back In: How China Is Governed (Singapore: Eastern Universities Press, 2004); and Kjeld Erik Brodsgaard and Zheng Yongnian, (eds.), The Chinese Communist Party in Reform (London: Routledge, 2006).
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