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Growth in the Puget Sound Region

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Growth in the Puget Sound Region Growth in the Puget Sound Region Transportation Policy Board February 11, 2016 Growth in the Puget Sound Region Highlights • Strongest population growth since 2005 • Strongest job growth since 1997 • Growth is predominately occurring in cities, centers and other urban areas • Preservation of rural areas Growth in the Puget Sound Region We’ve Been Growing The region grew by 63K people and 76K jobs last year (2014-15) • That’s more than 7 people per hour • Nearly 9 jobs per hour Growth per hour Graphic by Picktochart Growth in the Puget Sound Region Another Tacoma Since 2010 the region has grown by 208,000 people or the equivalent of a Tacoma this Tacoma not this Tacoma Growth in the Puget Sound Region Strongest Growth Since 2005 • Population growth slowed during recessions • Accelerated in recent years Annual population growth Growth in the Puget Sound Region 6 Puget Sound Population: 3.9 Million • Expected to hit 4 million in 2017 • Nearly 5 million by 2040 – on track with VISION forecast 6 Actual Forecast 5 4 1 million additional people Population } 3 Millions Employment } 850,000 additional jobs 2 1 Households 0 } 600,000 additional households 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Growth in the Puget Sound Region One of the Fastest Growing Regions in U.S. Houston, TX 541,000 Austin, TX 12.5% Dallas, TX 502,000 Raleigh, NC 9.3% New York,NY 493,000 Houston, TX 9.1% Los Angeles, CA 417,000 Orlando, FL 8.5% Washington, DC 368,000 San Antonio, TX 8.1% Miami, FL 343,000 Denver, CO 7.8% Atlanta, GA 310,000 Dallas, TX 7.8% Phoenix, AZ 280,000 Charlotte, NC-SC 7.0% San Francisco, CA 249,000 Nashville, TN 7.0% Seattle, WA 223,000 Phoenix, AZ 6.6% Austin, TX 216,000 Washington, DC 6.5% Denver, CO 200,000 Seattle, WA 6.5% Major U.S. Metro Areas Population Growth – Nominal and Percent Growth 2010-2014 Growth in the Puget Sound Region But Not As Fast as Some Places people/ hour: 7 9 18 85 Rate of population growth Graphic by Picktochart Growth in the Puget Sound Region Global Perspective http://www.theguardian.com/cities/2015/nov/23/cities-in-numbers-how-patterns-of-urban-growth-change-the-world#img-1 Growth in the Puget Sound Region Where are people from? In-state relocation tops migration Washington 32,197 California 25,559 Asia 21,163 Texas 8,544 Oregon 8,512 Europe 5,604 Arizona 5,498 Florida 4,658 Georgia 4,171 Colorado 3,549 Place of prior year residence Total from other Census ACS 2009-2013 countries: 35,084 Growth in the Puget Sound Region Migration Follows the Economy Natural increase is a constant Natural Increase vs Net Migration 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 Natural 15,000 Migration 10,000 5,000 0 Growth in the Puget Sound Region Largest Annual Job Increase Since 1997-98 Annual Change in Wage & Salary Employment 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 1990-91 1996-97 2002-03 2008-09 2014-15 -20,000 -40,000 -60,000 -80,000 • Recession lost over 120,000 jobs regionally; recovered from job losses in 2013 • In 2014-15 grew by about 66,000 wage & salary employment jobs, or about 76,000 total jobs Growth in the Puget Sound Region 2 Million Total Jobs in the Region Strong growth in our IT and aerospace industry clusters Cluster Employment and Growth Rate 2010-14 10.00% 150,000 8.00% 120,000 5.34% 6.00% 90,000 Jobs 4.04% 5.93% 4.00% 2010 60,000 Rate Growth 2013 0.77% 2.67% 2.00% 2014 30,000 2.00% 1.34% Growth-Rate 2010-14 1.49% - 0.00% Growth in the Puget Sound Region Tech is Hot Computer jobs have led growth for past 5 years Computer Occupations 20,301 Construction Trades Workers 18,053 Business Operations Specialists 14,772 Food and Beverage Serving Workers 14,317 Retail Sales Workers 11,845 Information and Record Clerks 10,137 2010-15 employment growth for top categories Growth in the Puget Sound Region Growth = Construction Jobs Construction jobs saw greatest gain last year Construction Trades Workers 8,569 Retail Sales Workers 4,240 Information and Record Clerks 3,724 Business Operations Specialists 3,477 Material Moving Workers 2,929 Computer Occupations 2,912 2014-15 employment growth for top categories Growth in the Puget Sound Region Where is Growth? • Permitted housing units 2000-2004 – 134,000 new Replace with 2000 base map housing units Growth in the Puget Sound Region Where is Growth? • Permitted housing units 2005-2009 – 117,000 new housing units Growth in the Puget Sound Region Where is Growth? • Permitted housing units 2010-2013 – 67,000 new housing units – (3 year period) Growth in the Puget Sound Region Where is Growth? • Total permitted housing units 2000-2013 – 318,000 new housing units Growth in the Puget Sound Region Where is Growth? • Employment change 2010-2014 – 160,000 new jobs overall – King: 115,000 – Kitsap: 1,000 – Pierce: 15,000 – Snohomish: 28,000 Growth in the Puget Sound Region Kitsap County • Population: 258,200 (2015) • 1% annual growth rate • 2,300 more people over the past year • 14,600 new units permitted 2000-13 2013 Residential Permits 19.5% Urban 80.5% Rural Map shows residential permits 2000-2013 Growth in the Puget Sound Region Snohomish County • Population: 757,600 (2015) 2013 Residential Permits • 2.2% annual growth rate 8.4% • 16,600 more people over the past year • 63,500 new units permitted 2000-13 Urban 91.6% • Strongest growth in SW county, Rural Ash Way and Marysville areas Map shows residential permits 2000-2013 Growth in the Puget Sound Region King County 2013 Residential Permits • Population: 2,052,800 (2015) 0.6% • 1.8% annual growth rate • 35,550 more people over the 99.4% Urban past year Rural • 175,600 new units permitted 2000-13 • Strong growth in centers Map shows residential permits 2000-2013 Growth in the Puget Sound Region Pierce County • Population: 830,120 (2015) • 1% annual growth rate • 8,820 more people over the past year • 64,100 new units permitted 2000-13 2013 Residential Permits 12.3% Urban Rural 87.7% Map shows residential permits 2000-2013 Growth in the Puget Sound Region New Growth is in Cities and Urban Areas • 95% of new housing was built in cities and urban areas (2013) • Compared to 72% in 1991 • Rural lands are staying rural 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 Inside UGA Outside UGA 10,000 5,000 0 1991 Net Permitted Housing Units 1991-2013 2013 Growth in the Puget Sound Region Demographic Shift • % Minority in 2014 • Minority population increased from 15% (1990) to 34% (2014) • Foreign-born population contributed to 38% of total population growth 1990-2014 Growth in the Puget Sound Region Young Adults (18-29) % of population people per acre Growth in the Puget Sound Region Cities Growing the Most and the Fastest Seattle Tops Local Cities Seattle 53,740 Ruston 20.8% Bellevue 7,007 Snoqualmie 20.4% Renton 6,717 Gig Harbor 20.0% Auburn 5,365 DuPont 12.8% Kent 5,031 Port Orchard 12.6% Redmond 4,887 Bonney Lake 12.2% Marysville 4,120 North Bend 11.0% Tacoma 3,903 Duvall 9.7% Sammamish 3,294 Issaquah 9.5% Issaquah 2,896 Redmond 9.0% 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Population growth and percent increase 2010-15 excluding annexations Growth in the Puget Sound Region Strongest Job Growth in Regional Centers • 33% of the region’s job growth going into regional growth centers - just 3% of the urban land area (covered employment for 2010-2014) • Since 2010: – 52,000 more jobs in regional growth centers – 18,000 more jobs in manufacturing/industrial centers Growth in the Puget Sound Region More People Living in Regional Centers • Regional centers have some of the strongest housing Top Performing Regional Growth Centers growth Downtown Seattle 9,707 Bellevue 5,353 • Since 2000 14% of housing First Hill/Capitol Hill 5,014 growth has occurred in South Lake Union 3,172 regional growth centers Seattle Uptown 2,566 Renton 1,990 • Pop-to-job ratio has Redmond DT 1,952 University District 1,805 increased from 0.29 to 0.37 Downtown Tacoma 1,784 improving jobs/housing Tacoma Mall 1,037 balance New housing units 2000-2014 38,000 total new housing units among all regional growth centers 2000-2014 Growth in the Puget Sound Region Challenges Growth in the Puget Sound Region Summary • Strong pop & job growth consistent with past cycles and VISION 2040 • Growth trend toward cities, urban locations and places with access – Strongest growth in regional centers – Growth pattern is helping preserve rural areas • Employment growth strongest in tech – Construction and retail see benefits of growth • Pressure on transportation system and housing affordability Growth in the Puget Sound Region Next Steps • What do you want to know more about? • Potential future presentations on: – Looking closer at where growth is going – Exploring issues, such housing affordability and the changing demographics of the region – Connecting growth with transportation infrastructure – Assessing VISION 2040 and the regional growth strategy Thank You Paul Inghram Carol Naito [email protected] [email protected].
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