Growth in the Puget Sound Region King County Planning Council March 30, 2016 Growth in the Puget Sound Region Growth in the Puget Sound Region • Regional growth – strongest since 2005 • National comparisons • Where within the region • King County specifics • Where within King County Growth in the Puget Sound Region We’ve Been Growing
The region grew by 63K people and 76K jobs last year (2014-15) • That’s more than 7 people per hour • Nearly 9 jobs per hour
Growth per hour
Graphic by Picktochart Growth in the Puget Sound Region Another Tacoma Since 2010 the region has grown by 208,000 people …or the equivalent of a Tacoma
this Tacoma not this Tacoma Growth in the Puget Sound Region Strongest Growth Since 2005 • Population growth slowed during recessions • Accelerated in recent years
Annual population growth Growth in the Puget Sound Region 6 Puget Sound Population: 3.9 Million • Expected to hit 4 million in 2017 • Nearly 5 million by 2040 – on track with VISION forecast 6 Actual Forecast
5
4 } 1 million additional people Population 3
Millions Employment } 850,000 additional jobs 2
1 Households
0 } 600,000 additional households 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Growth in the Puget Sound Region One of the Fastest Growing Regions in U.S.
Houston, TX 541,000 Austin, TX 12.5% Dallas, TX 502,000 Raleigh, NC 9.3% New York,NY 493,000 Houston, TX 9.1%
Los Angeles, CA 417,000 Orlando, FL 8.5%
Washington, DC 368,000 San Antonio, TX 8.1%
Miami, FL 343,000 Denver, CO 7.8% Atlanta, GA 310,000 Dallas, TX 7.8% Phoenix, AZ 280,000 Charlotte, NC-SC 7.0% San Francisco, CA 249,000 Nashville, TN 7.0% Seattle, WA 223,000 Phoenix, AZ 6.6% Austin, TX 216,000 Washington, DC 6.5% Denver, CO 200,000 Seattle, WA 6.5% Major U.S. Metro Areas Population Growth – Nominal and Percent Growth 2010-2014
Growth in the Puget Sound Region But Not As Fast as Some Places
people/ hour:
7
9
18
85
Rate of population growth Graphic by Picktochart Growth in the Puget Sound Region Where are people from? In-state relocation tops migration
Washington 32,197 California 25,559 Asia 21,163 Texas 8,544 Oregon 8,512 Europe 5,604 Arizona 5,498 Florida 4,658 Georgia 4,171 Colorado 3,549 Place of prior year residence Total from other Census ACS 2009-2013 countries: 35,084 Growth in the Puget Sound Region Migration Follows the Economy Natural increase is a constant
Natural Increase vs Net Migration 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 Natural 15,000 Migration 10,000 5,000 0 Growth in the Puget Sound Region Largest Annual Job Increase Since 1997-98 Annual Change in Wage & Salary Employment 100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0 1990-91 1996-97 2002-03 2008-09 2014-15 -20,000
-40,000
-60,000
-80,000 • Recession lost over 120,000 jobs regionally; recovered from job losses in 2013 • In 2014-15 grew by about 66,000 wage & salary employment jobs, or about 76,000 total jobs Growth in the Puget Sound Region 2 Million Total Jobs in the Region Strong growth in our IT and aerospace industry clusters
Cluster Employment and Growth Rate 2010-14 10.00%
150,000 8.00%
120,000
5.34% 6.00%
90,000
Jobs 4.04% 5.93% 4.00% 2010 60,000 Rate Growth 2013 0.77% 2.67% 2.00% 2014 30,000 2.00% 1.34% Growth-Rate 2010-14 1.49% - 0.00% Growth in the Puget Sound Region Tech is Hot Computer jobs have led growth for past 5 years
Computer Occupations 20,301
Construction Trades Workers 18,053
Business Operations Specialists 14,772
Food and Beverage Serving Workers 14,317
Retail Sales Workers 11,845
Information and Record Clerks 10,137
2010-15 employment growth for top categories Growth in the Puget Sound Region Growth = Construction Jobs Construction jobs saw greatest gain last year
Construction Trades Workers 8,569
Retail Sales Workers 4,240
Information and Record Clerks 3,724
Business Operations Specialists 3,477
Material Moving Workers 2,929
Computer Occupations 2,912
2014-15 employment growth for top categories Growth in the Puget Sound Region Where is Growth?
• Permitted housing units 2000-2004 – 134,000 new Replace with 2000 base map housing units Growth in the Puget Sound Region Where is Growth?
• Permitted housing units 2005-2009 – 117,000 new housing units
Growth in the Puget Sound Region Where is Growth?
• Permitted housing units 2010-2013 – 67,000 new housing units – (3 year period)
Growth in the Puget Sound Region Where is Growth?
• Total permitted housing units 2000-2013 – 318,000 new housing units
Growth in the Puget Sound Region Demographic Shift • % Minority in 2014
• Minority population increased from 15% (1990) to 34% (2014)
• Foreign-born population contributed to 38% of total population growth 1990-2014
Growth in the Puget Sound Region Young Adults (18-29) % of population people per acre Growth in the Puget Sound Region New Growth is in Cities and Urban Areas
• 95% of new housing was built in cities and urban areas (2013) • Compared to 72% in 1991 • Rural lands are staying rural
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000 Inside UGA Outside UGA
10,000
5,000
0 1991 Net Permitted Housing Units 1991-2013 2013 Growth in the Puget Sound Region Cities Growing the Most and the Fastest Seattle Tops Local Cities
Seattle 53,740 Ruston 20.8% Bellevue 7,007 Snoqualmie 20.4% Renton 6,717 Gig Harbor 20.0%
Auburn 5,365 DuPont 12.8% Kent 5,031 Port Orchard 12.6% Redmond 4,887 Bonney Lake 12.2% Marysville 4,120 North Bend 11.0% Tacoma 3,903 Duvall 9.7% Sammamish 3,294 Issaquah 9.5% Issaquah 2,896 Redmond 9.0% 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Population growth and percent increase 2010-15 excluding annexations Growth in the Puget Sound Region Strongest Job Growth in Regional Centers • 33% of the region’s job growth going into regional growth centers - just 3% of the urban land area (covered employment for 2010-2014) • Since 2010: – 52,000 more jobs in regional growth centers – 18,000 more jobs in manufacturing/industrial centers Growth in the Puget Sound Region More People Living in Regional Centers
• Regional centers have some of the strongest housing Top Performing Regional Growth Centers growth Downtown Seattle 9,707 Bellevue 5,353 • Since 2000 14% of housing First Hill/Capitol Hill 5,014 growth has occurred in South Lake Union 3,172 regional growth centers Seattle Uptown 2,566 Renton 1,990 • Pop-to-job ratio has Redmond DT 1,952 University District 1,805 increased from 0.29 to 0.37 Downtown Tacoma 1,784 improving jobs/housing Tacoma Mall 1,037 balance New housing units 2000-2014
38,000 total new housing units among all regional growth centers 2000-2014
Growth in the Puget Sound Region King County
• Population: 2,052,800 (2015)
• 1.8% annual growth rate
• 35,550 more people over the past year
• Strong growth in centers
Map shows residential permits 2000-2013 Growth in the Puget Sound Region Population Growth Share
Growth in the Puget Sound Region Urban/Rural
2013 Residential Permits
0.6%
99.4% Urban Rural
Map shows residential permits 2000-2013 Growth in the Puget Sound Region Master Planned Communities
• Redmond Ridge
• Issaquah Highlands
• Snoqualmie Ridge
Map shows residential permits 2000-2013 Growth in the Puget Sound Region Suburban Infill
• Shoreline
• Juanita
• Sammamish
• Renton
• Kent
• Maple Valley
• Auburn
Map shows residential permits 2000-2013
Growth in the Puget Sound Region Seattle Neighborhoods
• Ballard
• North Seattle
• West Seattle
• Light Rail Corridor
Map shows residential permits 2000-2013 Growth in the Puget Sound Region Urban Centers
• Downtown Seattle/SLU
• Bellevue
• Redmond
• Renton
Map shows residential permits 2000-2013 Growth in the Puget Sound Region Seattle Core
Map shows residential permits 2000-2013 Growth in the Puget Sound Region Downtown Bellevue
Map shows residential permits 2000-2013 Growth in the Puget Sound Region Downtown Redmond
Map shows residential permits 2000-2013 Growth in the Puget Sound Region Challenges
Growth in the Puget Sound Region Summary • Strong pop & job growth consistent with past cycles and VISION 2040 • Growth trend toward cities, urban locations and places with access – Strongest growth in regional centers – Growth pattern is helping preserve rural areas • Employment growth strongest in tech – Construction and retail see benefits of growth • Pressure on transportation system and housing affordability
Thank You
Paul Inghram Carol Naito [email protected] [email protected]