Finfish production outlook

Ragnar Tveteras, Professor Univ. of Stavanger Business School

Ragnar Nystoyl, Head of Analysis Kontali

Darryl Jory, Ph.D., Editor Emeritus Global Aquaculture Alliance Scope of Analysis

• Most focus on internationally traded species: • Typically imported to USA, Europe & Japan. • Production forecasts for 2019 and 2020 for all chosen species: • But for some species only major producer countries/regions. • Production forecast for 2021 for some species.

Sources • Prices: NMFS, Norwegian Seafood Council, Kontali, Eurostat, FAO. • Production volumes: FAO, Kontali, and many individuals and organizations who kindly responded to the GAA survey, sharing their time and knowledge. Finfish Species Included in Survey Freshwater species: Marine species: • Tilapia • Seabass & Sea Bream • Catfish • Cobia • Pangasius • Turbot • Others • Bluefin Tuna • Carps • Grouper • Corvina Diadromous species: • Atlantic salmon • Coho salmon • Trout • Barramundi • Milkfish TILAPIA FAULKNER/HOENIG

Global Tilapia Aquaculture Production US import prices frozen fillet

8,000 8

7,000 7

6,000 6

5,000 5

4,000 4 7,021

3,000 6,800 3 6,513 6,276 1000 METRIC TONNES METRIC 1000 5,881 REAL PRICE (USD/KG) REAL 5,582 5,457 5,156

2,000 4,734 2 4,424 3,917 3,494 3,109

1,000 2,826 1 2,554 2,265 1,992 1,795 1,587 0 485 548 593 704 811 898 897 1,037 1,190 1,302 1,417 0 2011 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Source: S. Zimmermann, CAPPMA, K. Fitzsimmons, AKM Nowsad Alam, Faulkner/Hoenig, CAPPMA, P. Sarmiento, V. Faulkner, R. Umakanth, M. Costero, D. Mendoza, B. Huang, M.A.A. Albaladejo and miscellaneous Tilapia Country production in 1000MT sorted by 2019 figures 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 China 1,761 Indonesia 1,135 Egypt 894 Brazil 451 Bangladesh 354 2018 Philippines 332 2019 Vietnam 244 2020 Thailand 221 2021 Others 100 Mexico 82 Colombia 75 Nigeria 72 Uganda 71 Taiwan 62 Source: S. Zimmermann, CAPPMA, K. Fitzsimmons, AKM Nowsad Alam, Faulkner/Hoenig, CAPPMA, P. Sarmiento, V. Faulkner, R. Umakanth, M. Costero, D. Mendoza, B. Huang, M.A.A. Albaladejo and miscellaneous https://www.alibaba.com/product-detail/Pangasius-basa-fish-swai-fish-dory_50031221944.html

CATFISHES & PANGASIUS By Peggy Greb, USDA ARS - This image was released by the Agricultural Research Service, the research agency of the United States Department of Agriculture, with the ID K9216-9 (next)., Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=1876530

www.udaipurbeats.com http://www.pantanalescapes.com/wildlife/fish/pintado.ht ml Pangasius Production in selected countries 4,500 4,000 171 175 171 3,500 470 475 18 170 466 3,000 457 461 478 493 Myanmar 467 510 453 China 2,500 625 635 Tonnes 590 Bangladesh 2,000 558 540 625 Indonesia 525 600

Metric 1,500 550 400 India 1,000 Vietnam

xX1000 xX1000 1,422 1,468 1,506 1,549 500 1,249 0 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Sources: AKM Nowsad Alam, R. Umakanth, Nguyen Tan Duy Phong and miscellaneous Pangasius Production in Vietnam and US & EU real import prices frozen fillet (USD/kg)

1800 6 1600 5 1400 1200 4 1000 3 800 1549 1506 1468 (USD/kg) 600 1422 2 1250 1249 1195 1184 1174 1151 1148 1140 1134 400 1050 850 1000 Metric tonnes Metric 1000 1

200 520 376 0 40 60 87 100 114 135 163 255 0 Real price US (blue) and EU (red)

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Sources: Nguyen Tan Duy Phong and miscellaneous Total production of Catfish species Incl. Pangasius 6000 Others Brazil Egypt 5000 Cambodia tonnes Myanmar 4000 Uganda Bangladesh 3000 Thailand 1000 metric 1000 metric Malaysia 2000 Nigeria Indonesia USA 1000 India* Production in in Production China 0 Vietnam

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Sources: Kontali and miscellaneous Total production of Catfish species US Import Price Frozen Catfish Fillet 6,000 9 8 5,000 7 tonnes

4,000 6 (USD/kg) 5 3,000 price 4 5,193 1000 metric 1000 metric 5,003 4,879

2,000 4,553 3 4,400 4,140 4,133 3,857 3,647

3,153 2 3,055 2,986 2,833

1,000 Real US import 2,259 1 1,718 1,343

Production in in Production 0 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Sources: Kontali and miscellaneous CARPS Major Carp species in GAA survey Vietnam, Carps 35,000 Myanmar, Rohu (Indian carp) Myanmar, Mrigal (Indian carp) 30,000 Myanmar, Grass carps

Tonnes Myanmar, Common Carps 25,000 Myanmar, Catla (Indian carp) India, Major Carps 20,000 India, Common Carps Egypt, Carps 1000 Metric 1000 Metric 15,000 China, Silver carps 10,000 China, Grass carps China, Crucian carps 5,000 China, Common Carps

Production in in Production China, Black carps 0 China, Bighead carps Bangladesh, Other Carps Bangladesh, Exotic Carps 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Bangladesh, Major Carps Sources: CAPPMA, R. Umakanth, AKM Nowsad Alam, miscellaneous Salmonids Atlantic Salmon Production Real EU27 import price fresh whole gutted and real US import price fresh fillet Real import prices EU27 Production in 1000 metric fresh whole (red) and US tonnes fresh fillet (blue) in USD/kg 3000 14

2500 12 10 2000 8 1500 6 2,740 2,740 2,689 2,689 2,599 2,599 2,423 2,423

1000 2,319 2,290 2,290 2,228 2,228 2,162 2,162

2,041 2,041 4 1,999 1,999 1,633 1,633 1,496 1,496 1,475 1,475 1,455 1,455 500 1,398 1,271 1,271 1,251 1,251 1,245 1,245 2 1,133 1,133 1,081 1,081 894 1,033 1,033 804 688 0 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Sources: FAO, Kontali, NSC/Eurostat (prices). Note: Prices until 2018 are annual averages. Prices in 2019 are January-July average. Atlantic Salmon

Production3,000 by country

2,500 Others

Tonnes Iceland 184 185 2,000 182 USA 154 166 171 177

738 Ireland 157 733 158 714 159 1,500 677 598

583 564 Australia 1000 Metric 1000 Metric 504 468 364 155 Faroe Islands 136 145 135 142 1,000 221 128 120 130 239

404 Canada 356 369 385 UK 1,394 1,372 1,327 1,253

500 1,234 1,208 1,199 1,183 1,171 1,144 945 1,006 856

Production in in Production Chile 741 723 599 574 0 Norway 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Source: Kontali Large Rainbow Trout Total Marine Production, real US fresh import price (blue) and real EU fresh import price USD/kg (red) 450 9

400 8

350 7 tonnes

300 6 (USD/kg)

Metric 250 5 price 200 4 386 Real e 344 340 326 150 322 3 314 312 309 308 302 300 281 281 265 261 259 242

100 222 2 215 207 206

50 153 1 Production in 1000

0 0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Sources: FAO, Kontali and miscellaneous, NSC. Note: Prices until 2018 are annual averages. Price in 2019 is January-July average. Small Rainbow Trout Global Production and EU27 real import price

700 9 8 600 7 500 6 400 5 4

300 631 623 610 596 582 566 555 527 527

509 3 473 436

Metric tonnes 200 418 395 390 365

345 2

100 EU import price in USD/kg 1 0 0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Sources: Kontali and miscellaneous. Prices: NSC and Eurostat. Asian Seabass, Barramundi

Scandasia.com

Cairnspost.com.au

Thebetterfish.com Barramundi Total production by major producing countries 140,000 Vietnam Thailand Taiwan 120,000 Malaysia Indonesia Australia 100,000

80,000

60,000 Metric Tonnes 40,000

20,000

0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Source: FAO 2000-2016, Miscellaneous 2017-2021. Seabass & Seabream Mediterranean Production & Real Italian Import Price

Production Sea Basses and Breams Real price fresh whole seabass Production Real Price (1000 metric tonnes) Real price fresh Gilthead seabream (USD per kilo)

450 10 400 9 350 8 300 7 6 250 5 200 419 412 403

387 4 346 328

150 323 320 319 295 294 3 291 290 284 100 255 2 182 158 150 141 133 50 131 1 0 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Sources: Kontali and miscellaneous. COBIA

SNAPPERFARMS Cobia Estimates for China, Taiwan, Panama and Vietnam

60,000

50,000

40,000 Vietnam

30,000 Taiwan Metric Tonnes 20,000 Panama

10,000 China

0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Source: CAPPMA and miscellaneous. TUNAS

https://browse.startpage.com/do/show_picture.pl?l=english&rais=1&oiu=https%3A%2F%2Fscience.sciencemag.org%2Fcontent%2Fs ci%2F357%2F6349%2F356%2FF1.large.jpg&sp=b82231616d8df449c1e0f99e9fa662df&t=default https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0518l75 Bluefin Tuna Total Production and US real import price fresh Production US import price fresh 90000 35 79100 80000 78100

72349 30 70000 62720 25 60000 58668

49112 20

50000 45181 43800 42563 40000 34500 34300 15 33500 31050 30700 30300 29700 29100 29000

30000 26500 Metric tonnes Metric 23800 10 20000 (USD/kg) price Real 5 10000 0 0

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Source: Production – Anonymous; Prices - NMFS. Groupers Estimates for selected countries 250000

200000

150000 Thailand Malaysia Taiwan 100000 Metric Tonnes Metric China

50000

0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Source: Miscellaneous. Global Summary Finfish Aquaculture Production of Fish Species and 10-year growth rate FAO data 1990-2017 60 250 Production % growth 50 200 tonnes 40 150 30 53 51

49 100 47 45

20 42 39 38 36 34 32 30 rate growth year % ten 28 26

24 50 24 22

10 21 20 19 18 17 15 Production in Mill. metric metric Mill. in Production 13 11 9 9 10 0 0

Source: FAO 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Aquaculture Production of Fish Species and Seafood Price Indices FAO data 1990-2016 60 160 Production 150 50 Aquaculture price index 140 tonnes Capture price index 130 40 120 30 110 2004=100) - 53 51

49 100 47 45

20 42 39 (2002 38 90 36 Seafood price index price index Seafood 34 32 30 28 26

24 80 24 22

10 21 20 19 18 17 Production in Mill. metric metric Mill. in Production 15

13 70 11 9 9 10 0 60 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: Production – FAO; Price index - FAO, Univ. of Stavanger, Norwegian Seafood Council Diadromous Species Annual Percent Growth Rates 70.0 59 60.0 50.0 40.0 31 30.0 20 2017 20.0 13 10 9 10.0 6 6 7 6 2018 3 2 2 1 3 2 2 2 1 1 0.0 2019 -10.0 2020 -7 -9 -7 -20.0 -30.0 -28 -40.0 Atlantic salmon Coho salmon Large Rainbow Small trout Milkfish Barramundi trout Freshwater Species Annual Percent Growth Rates 16.0 14 14.0

12.0

10.0 8.2 2017 8.0 7 7 2018 6.0 5 2019 4.4 4 4 3.8 2020 4.0 3 3 3 3 3 2 2.0 1 0.0 Carp, China Tilapia Catfishes, selected Pangasius, Vietnam countries Marine Species Annual Percent Growth Rates 25 21 20 19 19 17 15 15

10 8 2016 7 6 5 5 4 5 4 2017 5 3 3 2018 0 2019 0 -2 -5 -4 -4 -6 -10 Sea bass & bream, Bluefin tuna Cobia, sel. countries Grouper, sel. Corvina, Medit. Medit. countries Production of Surveyed Species Incl. Carp in China 45 12.0 Production % growth 40 41 10.0 38 35 9.5 9.6 37 tonnes 36 34 35 30 33 8.0 31 30 25 28 7.0 26 6.3 24 25 6.0 6.0 20 22 20 4.9 5.0 4.7 % growth 15 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.5 3.1 10 2.1 2.0

Production in Mill. metric metric Mill. in Production 5 1.7 0 0.0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Production of Surveyed Species Excl. Carp 20 25 Production % growth 18 19.0 18.3 20.0 17.6 20 16 16.2 16.6 tonnes 17.3 15.8 14 15.3 14.4 13.9 15 12 13.4 12.2 11.3 10 10.6 10.5 10 8.1 7.7 8 9.0 % growth 6.0 6.0 7.5 5 6 4.2 3.3 3.9 3.5 2.3 2.9 4 0

Production in Mill. metric metric Mill. in Production -0.7 2 0 -5 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Production of Surveyed Species By species group 45 Marine 140 Diadromous 0.7 40 Freshwater 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 4.7 130 35 Aquaculture price index 0.5 0.6 4.6 0.5 4.3 0.5 4.5 4.4 4.3 30 0.5 4.3 120 0.4 0.4 4.1 4.2 Tonnes 0.4 25 0.4 3.2 3.6 0.4 3.1 3.1 110 20 2.9 2.6 33.1 35.2 15 29.4 30.2 30.8 32.0 100 26.4 28.2 Mill. Metric Mill. Metric 25.1 21.7 22.8 23.8 10 18.9 20.9 price index Aquaculture 17.3 90 5 0 80 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Production of Surveyed Species Excl. Carp 20 140 0.7 Marine 0.7 18 Diadromous 0.7 0.6 0.7 130 16 Freshwater ex. Carp 0.5 0.6 4.7 0.5 4.3 4.6 14 Aquaculture price index 0.5 4.3 120 0.5 4.5 4.4 12 4.3 Tonnes 0.4 4.2 0.4 4.1 0.4 Index Price 10 3.6 110 0.4 3.2 8 0.4 3.1 3.1 2.9 13.5 100 6 12.6 13.0 Mill. Metric Mill. Metric 2.6 11.2 11.7 9.7 10.4 10.8 4 8.2 9.3 Aquaculture 7.1 7.0 7.7 90 5.7 2 4.5 0 80 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Growth Rates by Species Groups - Incl. Carps 2007-2020 average growth rate in parenthesis 20

Freshwater (5.2%) 15 Diadromous (4.4%) Marine (4.9%) 10

% growth 5

0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

-5 Growth Rates by Species Groups - Excl. Carp 2007-2020 average growth rate in parenthesis 30

25 Freshwater (8.4%) Diadromous (4.4%) 20 Marine (4.9%)

15

10 % growth

5

0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 -5 Production of Surveyed Whitefish Species and Price Index Aquaculture & Whitefish Excluding Carp

16 Production 140 Aquaculture price index 14 Whitefish price index 130

tonnes 12 120 10 8 110 6 100

4 index price Whitefish 90 2 Production in Mill. metric metric Mill. in Production 0 80 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Did they double in a decade? Percentage growth, 2009-2019

Marine 73.3 Diadromous 49.9 Freshwater ex. Carp 85.7 Freshwater 52.5

TOTAL EX. CARP 74.7

TOTAL 52.5 0 100 Percent Trends and issues: Sustainable growth – technological or institutional innovations? • Technological leaps? • Land based, closed production systems • Exposed / offshore production systems • Increasing capital requirements • Scaling up • Increasing financial risks? • Institutional innovations? • Problem: External biological/environmental effects • A new generation of regional collaboration models? • Certification schemes for regional collaboration? WWW.INTRAFISH.COM

Land based Atlantic salmon plans/visions

In 1000 tonnes

Source: Kontali Systemizing the world of aquaculture and fisheries Trends: Exposed / offshore production systems Trends: Exposed / offshore production systems Trends: Exposed / offshore production systems Thank You!