Finfish production outlook Ragnar Tveteras, Professor Univ. of Stavanger Business School Ragnar Nystoyl, Head of Analysis Kontali Darryl Jory, Ph.D., Editor Emeritus Global Aquaculture Alliance Scope of Analysis • Most focus on internationally traded species: • Typically imported to USA, Europe & Japan. • Production forecasts for 2019 and 2020 for all chosen species: • But for some species only major producer countries/regions. • Production forecast for 2021 for some species. Sources • Prices: NMFS, Norwegian Seafood Council, Kontali, Eurostat, FAO. • Production volumes: FAO, Kontali, and many individuals and organizations who kindly responded to the GAA survey, sharing their time and knowledge. Finfish Species Included in Survey Freshwater species: Marine species: • Tilapia • Seabass & Sea Bream • Catfish • Cobia • Pangasius • Turbot • Others • Bluefin Tuna • Carps • Grouper • Corvina Diadromous species: • Atlantic salmon • Coho salmon • Trout • Barramundi • Milkfish TILAPIA FAULKNER/HOENIG M. M. Source: Costero 1000 METRIC TONNES 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 S. Zimmermann, CAPPMA, K. Fitzsimmons, AKM CAPPMA, Fitzsimmons, Zimmermann, K. S. , D. Mendoza, B. Huang, B. M.A.A. Mendoza, D. , US import prices frozen fillet fillet frozen prices import US Production GlobalTilapia Aquaculture 0 1992 485 1993 548 1994 593 1995 704 1996 811 1997 898 Albaladejo 1998 897 1999 1,037 and miscellaneous and Nowsad 2000 1,190 2001 1,302 Alam 2002 1,417 , Faulkner/ , 2003 1,587 2004 1,795 2005 1,992 Hoenig 2006 2,265 , CAPPMA, P. Sarmiento, V. Faulkner, R. Faulkner, V. Sarmiento, CAPPMA,, P. 2007 2,554 2008 2,826 2009 3,109 2010 3,494 2011 3,917 2012 4,424 2013 4,734 2014 5,156 2015 5,457 Umakanth 2016 5,582 2017 5,881 , 2018 6,276 2019 6,513 2020 6,800 2021 7,021 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 REAL PRICE (USD/KG) Tilapia Country production in 1000MT sorted by 2019 figures 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 China 1,761 Indonesia 1,135 Egypt 894 Brazil 451 Bangladesh 354 2018 Philippines 332 2019 Vietnam 244 2020 Thailand 221 2021 Others 100 Mexico 82 Colombia 75 Nigeria 72 Uganda 71 Taiwan 62 Source: S. Zimmermann, CAPPMA, K. Fitzsimmons, AKM Nowsad Alam, Faulkner/Hoenig, CAPPMA, P. Sarmiento, V. Faulkner, R. Umakanth, M. Costero, D. Mendoza, B. Huang, M.A.A. Albaladejo and miscellaneous https://www.alibaba.com/product-detail/Pangasius-basa-fish-swai-fish-dory_50031221944.html CATFISHES & PANGASIUS By Peggy Greb, USDA ARS - This image was released by the Agricultural Research Service, the research agency of the United States Department of Agriculture, with the ID K9216-9 (next)., Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=1876530 www.udaipurbeats.com http://www.pantanalescapes.com/wildlife/fish/pintado.ht ml Pangasius Production in selected countries 4,500 4,000 171 175 171 3,500 470 475 18 170 466 3,000 457 461 478 493 Myanmar 467 510 453 China 2,500 625 635 Tonnes 590 Bangladesh 2,000 558 540 625 Indonesia 525 600 Metric 1,500 550 400 India 1,000 Vietnam xX1000 xX1000 1,422 1,468 1,506 1,549 500 1,249 0 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Sources: AKM Nowsad Alam, R. Umakanth, Nguyen Tan Duy Phong and miscellaneous Sources: Nguyen Tan Tan Sources: Nguyen 1000 Metric tonnes Production in Vietnam and US & EU real import prices fillet frozen (USD/kg) Pangasius 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 200 400 600 800 0 Duy Phong 1997 1998 40 and miscellaneousand 1999 60 2000 87 2001 100 2002 114 2003 135 2004 163 2005 255 2006 376 2007 520 2008 850 2009 1250 2010 1050 2011 1140 2012 1151 2013 1184 2014 1148 2015 1134 2016 1174 2017 1195 2018 1249 2019 1422 2020 1468 2021 1506 1549 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Real price US (blue) and EU (red) (USD/kg) Total production of Catfish species Incl. Pangasius 6000 Others Brazil Egypt 5000 Cambodia tonnes Myanmar 4000 Uganda Bangladesh 3000 Thailand 1000 metric 1000 metric Malaysia 2000 Nigeria Indonesia USA 1000 India* Production in in Production China 0 Vietnam 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Sources: Kontali and miscellaneous Total production of Catfish species US Import Price Frozen Catfish Fillet 6,000 9 8 5,000 7 tonnes 4,000 6 (USD/kg) 5 3,000 price 4 5,193 1000 metric 1000 metric 5,003 4,879 2,000 4,553 3 4,400 4,140 4,133 3,857 3,647 3,153 2 3,055 2,986 2,833 1,000 Real US import 2,259 1 1,718 1,343 Production in in Production 0 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Sources: Kontali and miscellaneous CARPS Major Carp species in GAA survey Vietnam, Carps 35,000 Myanmar, Rohu (Indian carp) Myanmar, Mrigal (Indian carp) 30,000 Myanmar, Grass carps Tonnes Myanmar, Common Carps 25,000 Myanmar, Catla (Indian carp) India, Major Carps 20,000 India, Common Carps Egypt, Carps 1000 Metric 1000 Metric 15,000 China, Silver carps 10,000 China, Grass carps China, Crucian carps 5,000 China, Common Carps Production in in Production China, Black carps 0 China, Bighead carps Bangladesh, Other Carps Bangladesh, Exotic Carps 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Bangladesh, Major Carps Sources: CAPPMA, R. Umakanth, AKM Nowsad Alam, miscellaneous Salmonids Sources: FAO, FAO, Sources: Production in 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 500 0 Real EU27 import price fresh whole gutted and real US import priceAtlantic fresh fillet Salmon Production Kontali tonnes , NSC/Eurostat (prices). Note: Prices until , NSC/Eurostat 1998 688 1000 1999 804 metric 2000 894 2001 1,033 2002 1,081 2003 1,133 2004 2018 1,245 are annual averages. averages. annual are 2005 1,251 2006 1,271 2007 1,398 2008 Prices Prices 1,496 in in 2009 1,475 2019 are January 2019 are 2010 1,455 2011 1,633 - 2012 July July 1,999 average. 2013 2,041 2014 2,228 2015 2,319 2016 2,162 2017 2,290 fresh whole 2018 2,423 Real 2019 2,599 fresh fillet import prices 2020 2,689 USD/kg ( red 2021 2,740 ( blue ) andUS 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 ) in EU27 Source: Kontali Production in 1000 Metric Tonnes Production by country Salmon Atlantic 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 500 0 2005 574 385120 2006 599 369128 2007 723 356135 2008 741 404136 2009 856 239145 2010 945 130142 2011 1,006 221155 2012 1,183 364159 2013 1,144 468 158 2014 1,199 583 171 2015 1,234 598 166 2016 1,171 504 157 2017 1,208 564 177 2018 1,253 677 154 2019 1,327 714 182 2020 1,372 733 185 2021 1,394 738 184 Norway Chile UK Canada Faroe Islands Australia Ireland USA Iceland Others Large Rainbow Trout Total Marine Production, real US fresh import price (blue) and real EU fresh import price USD/kg (red) 450 9 400 8 350 7 tonnes 300 6 (USD/kg) Metric 250 5 price 200 4 386 Real e 344 340 326 150 322 3 314 312 309 308 302 300 281 281 265 261 259 242 100 222 2 215 207 206 50 153 1 Production in 1000 0 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Sources: FAO, Kontali and miscellaneous, NSC. Note: Prices until 2018 are annual averages. Price in 2019 is January-July average. Small Rainbow Trout Global Production and EU27 real import price 700 9 8 600 7 500 6 400 5 4 300 631 623 610 596 582 566 555 527 527 509 3 473 436 Metric tonnes 200 418 395 390 365 345 2 100 EU import price in USD/kg 1 0 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Sources: Kontali and miscellaneous. Prices: NSC and Eurostat. Asian Seabass, Barramundi Scandasia.com Cairnspost.com.au Thebetterfish.com Source: Source: Metric Tonnes FAO 2000 Total productionBarramundi by major producing countries 100,000 120,000 140,000 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 -2016, Miscellaneous 2017- 0 2000 2001 2021. 2002 Malaysia Vietnam 2003 2004 2005 2006 Indonesia Thailand 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Australia Taiwan 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Sources: (1000 Kontali 400 450 100 150 200 250 300 350 Production 50 Mediterranean Production Mediterranean &Production ItalianReal Import Price Seabass & Seabream metric 0 and miscellaneous.and 2000 131 tonnes 2001 133 ) 2002 141 Real price fresh Gilthead seabream Gilthead fresh price Real Breams and Basses Sea Production 2003 150 2004 158 2005 182 2006 255 2007 284 2008 290 2009 295 2010 294 2011 291 seabass whole fresh price Real 2012 320 2013 319 2014 323 2015 328 2016 346 2017 403 2018 419 (USD perkilo) 2019 412 Real Price 2020 387 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 COBIA SNAPPERFARMS Source: Source: Metric Tonnes 50,000 60,000 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 CAPPMA and miscellaneous. Estimates for China, Taiwan, Panama and Vietnam Panama China, Taiwan, for Estimates Cobia 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 China Panama Taiwan Vietnam TUNAS https://browse.startpage.com/do/show_picture.pl?l=english&rais=1&oiu=https%3A%2F%2Fscience.sciencemag.org%2Fcontent%2Fs ci%2F357%2F6349%2F356%2FF1.large.jpg&sp=b82231616d8df449c1e0f99e9fa662df&t=default https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0518l75 Bluefin Tuna Total Production and US real import price fresh Production US import price fresh 90000 35 79100 80000 78100 72349 30 70000 62720 25 60000 58668 49112 20 50000 45181 43800 42563 40000 34500 34300 15 33500 31050 30700 30300 29700 29100 29000 30000 26500 Metric tonnes Metric 23800 10 20000 (USD/kg) price Real 5 10000 0 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Source: Production – Anonymous; Prices - NMFS.