ReportNo. 909a-.TR 2 E O Trinidadand Tobago:FIECp Appraisalof a

Public Disclosure Authorized SecondHighway Project

March10, 1976 Latin America and the CaribbeanProjects Department

FOR OFFICIALUSE ONLY Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Documentof the World Bank

This document hasa restricteddistribution and may be usedby recipients only in the performanceof their official duties.Its contents may not otherwise be disclosedwithout World B3ankauthorizatioSn. CurrencyEquivalents

Currency Unit = Trinidad and Tobago Dollar (TT$) US.1.00 = TT$.2.37 rr$l.oo = US$0.142 TT$l million = US$421,900 Systemof WeightsandMeasures: British

British/US Metric Equivalent

1 foot (ft) 0.305 meter (m) 1 mile (mi) 2 = 1.609 kilometer (km) 2 1 square mile (mi 2.589 square kilometer (km ) 1 pound (lb) = 0.454kilogram (kg) 1 short ton (us) = 0.91 metric ton 1 long ton (Imperial) = 1.02 metric ton

Abbreviationsand Acronyms

BIVIA = British West Indies Airways CIDA = Canadian InternationalDevelopment Agency Lea/TRINTOPLAN= ConsultantsN. D. Lea and AssociatesLtd., (Canada)/TRINTOPLAN ConsultantsLtd., (Trinidad) MLG = Ministry of Local Government MPD = Ministry of Planning and Development MPU = Ministry of Public Utilities MIOW = Ministry of Works PTSC = Public Transport Service Corporation WISCO = West Indies Shipping Company FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO

APPRAISAL OF A SECOND HIGHWAYPROJECT

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page No.

SUMMARY AND CONC]LUSIONS ...... i - ii

1, INTRODUCTION ...... 1

2. BACKGROUND ..... o ...... 2

A. General * ...... 2 B. The Transport Sector 2...... 2 C. Transport Policy, Planning and Coordination 3 D. Policy and Planning in the East-West Corridor 4

3. THE HIGHWAY SUBSECTOR ...... 7

A. The Road Network ...... -.-. 7 B. Characteristics and Growth of Road Traffic 7 C. Highway Planning and Financing ...... 8 D. Highway Administration...... 9 E. Highway Engineering ...... 9 F. Highway Construction...... 9 G. Highway Maintenance ...... 10

4. THE PROJECT * ...... 10

A. General Description ...... 10 B. Project Elements ...... 11 C. Cost Estimates, Financing and Disbursements . 16 D. Execution o ...... *...t...... 18

5. ECONOMIC EVALUATION ...... o...... 19

A* General ..o...e...... 19 B. Upgrading in the East-West Corridor ...... 19 C. Rural Road Strengthening Program ...... 21 D. Detailed Engineering of Other High Priority Sections ...... 22 E. Technical Assistance ...... 22

6. AGREEMENTS REACHED AND RECOMMENDATION ...... 23

This Appraisal Report has been prepared by Messrs. S. Hertel (Engineer), P. Morris (Engineer) and D. Ngangmuta (Economist), and has been edited by Miss V. Foster. This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its conternts may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. TABLE OF CONTENTS (Cont'd)

TABLES

1. Total Road Mileage, 1965-1974 2. RegisteredMotor Vehicles, 1964-1974 3. Vehicle Fuel Consumption,1970--1974 4. Expendituresof National Highways, 1964-1974 5. Road User Charges 6. Comparisonof Road User Charges and Total Expenditureon All Roads (MOW and MLG) 7. Design Standards for Project Roads 8. Cost Estimate 9. Schedule of Disbursements 10. Traffic Compositionon Selected Roads in the East-West Corridor, 1974 (%) 11. Traffic Forecast on Project an(dRelated Roads 12. Vehicle Operating Economic Costs per Mile 13. Economic Return and SensitivityAnalysis

ANNEXES

1. Draft Terms of Reference for TechnicalAssistance to the Ministry of Works, Highways Division 2. ImplementationSchedule 3. Project Indicators

CHARTS

I. Organizationof the Ministry oi.Works (MOW) II. Organizationof the Highways D:Lvisionof MOW

MAPS

IBRD 11676 - Trinidad and Tobago, Second Highway Project IBRD 11696 - Second Highway Project, East-West Corridor TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO

APPRAISALOF A SECOND HIGHWAY PROJECT

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS i. The prime traffic mode in Trinidad and Tobago is road transport. The road network comprises 1,900 miles of national highways and 2,500 miles of municipal and county roads. The national highway network has not been expanded significantlyover the past ten years, and pavements have not been strengthenedadequately despite rapid increases in traffic; hence, many roads are now badly congested, and pavementsare showing severe signs of distress and failure. The only existing rail facilities are operated within sugar estates. Inter-islandtransport is provided by ferry, coastal shipping, and air services. ii. In 1967, consultantscarried out a national transport study, recommendingimprovements to, and limited expansion of, the road network, especially in the heavily trafficked East-West Corridor (from Cocorite, near Diego Martin, through Port-of-Spain,to Arima) and the North-South Corridor (Port-of-Spain/SanFernando). In 1972-1974,transportation feasibility studies were carried out to determine optimum solutions for improving traffic condi- tions in these Corridors. iii. The most significant elements of the proposed project have been developed from these feasibilitystudies and comprise constructionof the first part of the Government'supgrading program for the East-West Transport Corridor, as well as the detailed engineeringfor upgrading other high priority highway sections, includinga Bus-PriorityRoute. In addition, the project envisages strengtheningof about 60 miles of paved rural roads. These 60 miles would be selected from a survey of at least 200 miles of representativeroad sections in both Trinidad and Tobago. Consulting services for the works have been in- cluded. iv. The proposed project also includes technical assistance to the Ministry of Works (MOW) IlighwaysDivision in highway planning and data collec- tion, pavement design and contract document preparationand administration, as well as technicalassistance to develop the domestic construction industry. v. Execution of the project would be the responsibilityof MOW and would extend over a period of about three years. Approximately90% of the civil works would be procured through internationalcompetitive bidding in compliance with the Bank's Guidelines; the remainderwould be procured through competitivebidding, advertised locally. Upgrading works in the East-West Corridor would consist of three sections, and bidders were given the option to bid for any or all of the sections. Bids are currentlybeing examined,and it appears that the lowest evaluatedbid will be one for the complete works. This bid was submitted by a foreign firm, but it is expected that local firms - ii - will participateas subcontractors. The 60 miles of strengtheningworks would be grouped into suitable lots based on length and location. vi. Quantifiablebenefits from the constructionelements would derive from savings in vehicle operating costs. On conservativeassumptions, the economic return of the constructionelement as a whole would be 25%. vii. The project is estimated to cost US$28.5 million equivalentwith a foreign exchange component of US$14.1 million. The proposed loan would finance US$7.0 million equivalentof the foreign exchange component. The remaining foreign exchange costs and all local currency costs would be met by the Government;the term would be 15 years, including a four-year grace period. TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO

APPRAISPLOF A SECOND HIGHWAY PROJECT

1. INTRODUCTION

1.01 The Governmentcf Trinidad and Tobago has requested the Bank to assist in financinga project consistingof: (a) upgradingof about 7.6 miles of the East-WestTransport Corridor,consisting of widening and improve- ment of existing highways, and associatedstructures, together with about 2.6 miles of local roads providingaccess to those highways; (b) strengthening of about 60 miles of paved roads; (c) consultingservices for detailed engineeringand constructionsupervision; and (d) technicalassistance to the Ministry of W4orks(MOW) Highways Division for highway planning, pavement design and contract administrationand to the domestic constructionindustry for the developmentof technicaland managerial expertise. The total cost of the proposed project is estimatedat about US$28.5 million equivalent;the total estimated foreign exchange component is US$14.1 million equivalent. Of the total project, US$7.0 million would be financed by the proposed Bank loan. The balance of US$21.5 million equivalentwould be provided by the Government.

1.02 This would be the second highway project financed by the Bank in Trinidad and Tobago. The first (Loan 497-TR, US$8.6 million) was made in 1967 to assist in financingconstruction and supervisionof a new 17-mile four-laneexpressway (now named the SolomonHochoy Highway) in the North- South TransportCorridor to improve the route between Port-of-Spain,the capital,and San Fernando, the second largest city. Also included were con- sulting services for feasiLbilitystudies and detailed engineeringfor related parts of the highway system in both the East-Westand North-SouthCorridors. Constructionof the Solomon Hochoy Highway was completedin March 1975, three years behind the original schedule. Project executionwas delayed, largely because of the poor performanceof the original consultants,who were replaced in late 1969, as well as delays by MIOWin prequalifyingcontractors and award- ing and signing contracts. Asphalt shortagesduring constructionalso contri- buted to the delay. The l-easibilitystudies and detailed engineeringof roads in the East-West Corridorwere eliminatedin 1971, when the projectwas restruc- tured to accommodatecost increases,and were taken up by a study financed by the Canadian Internationa:LDevelopment Agency (CIDA),which covered the entire East-WestTransport Corridor. A portion of the loan was reallocatedto cover (a) supervisionof repair work for a further 2.7 miles of the SolomonHochoy Highway and (b) cost overruns in the highway construction due to quantity and price escalations (23% above original appraisal estimate).

1.03 This proposed Second Highway Project originatesin part from the recommendationsof the CI])A-financedstudy, which was carried out by a joint venture of N. D. Lea Associates,Ltd. (Canada)and TRINTOPLANConsultants, Ltd. (Trinidadand Tobago). The major item of the proposed project consists of part of the first phase work for developmentof the East-West Corridor,as recommend- ed by the consultants. 1.04 The projectwas appraised by Messrs. S. Hertel (Engineer),P. Morris (Engineer),and D. Ngangmuta (Economist)in April 1975. The report has been edited by Miss V. Foster. 2. BACKGROUND

A. General

2.01 Trinidad and Tobago, off the northeast coast of South America, have a combined area of 2,000 square miles. The population, which was 1.1 million in 1974, grew by 1.5% p.a. between 1970 and 1974. About 250,000 inhabitants are living in greater Port-of-Spain, the capital, which is also the administra- tive, banking, manufacturing and commercial center, as well as the primary general cargo port of the country. A further 150,000 inhabitants are living in adjacent towns east and west of the capital (the "East-West Corridor", para. 2.11).

2.02 The economy, to a large extent, is based on petroleum production and refining, which, in 1974, represented 42% of GDP and accounted for about two-thirds of merchandise exports. Other important sectors of the economy are (a) transport, distribution and communications and (b) manufacturing, wihich together accounted for 20% of GDP in the same year. Agriculture contributes only 4.7% of GDP, but employs 25% of the labor force. Unemploy- ment, about 13% of the labor force, remains a major economic and social problem.

B. The Transport Sector

(i) General

2.03 Trinidad and Tobago are bot:h almost entirely dependent on road transportation for internal movement of people and goods. The inter-island link is provided by ferry, coastal shipping and domestic air transport services. The only existing rail facilities are operated within sugar estates. Bank Group involvement in t:he transport sector has been limited to one operation -- the (First) HighwfayProject (para. 1.02). Apart from a CIDA-financed feasibility study of the East-West Corridor (para. 2.11), Trinidad and Tobago has not received any major foreign assistance in the transport sector.

(ii) Highways and Highway Transport

2.04 The highway system and its administration are described in detail in Chapter 3.

(iii) Ports

2.05 The Port Authority of Trinidad and Tobago is the statutory body charged with planning, providing and regulating all public ports in the country. The bulk of Trinidad's seaborne commerce -- 42.3 million tons in 1972 -- moves through the island's seven private ports. Bauxite from Guyana and Surinam is transshipped at Tembladora and Chaguaramas, raw sugar and chemicals are handled at Point Lisas, cement is loaded at Claxton Bay, asphalt - 3 -

is handled at Brighton and crude oil products are loaded at Pointe-a-Pierre and Point Fortin. Port-of-Spainis Trinidad'sprincipal general cargo port (1.04 million tons in 1973), but it also has facilitiesfor bulk handling of grains and molasses, and for internationaland inter-islandpassenger and cargo transport. A small port at Scarboroughserves the island of Tobago.

2.06 Regional inter-islandservices are provided by small vessels and by local shipping lines, including the West Indies Shipping Corporation (WISCO),which was formed following the 1961 Act establishingFederal shipping services for the West Indies. It is jointly owned by the Governmentsof Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Barbados, Dominica, St. Lucia, St. Kitts, St. Vincent, Grenada, Montserrat,Antigua and Guyana. The Corporationrecently acquired one containervessel and is in the process of acquiring another con- tainer and two mixed cargo vessels to enable it to compete effectivelywith foreign shipping lines.

(iv) Air Transport

2.07 Trinidad has one internationalairport, Piarco, located about 10 miles east of Port-of-Spain. The airport is served by several international airlines. Internal air service between Trinidad and Tobago is provided by a local airline, Trinidad and Tobago Air Services (Government-owned).British West Indies Airways (BWIA),the Government-ownednational airline, operates services to London, Toronto, New York, Miami and Georgetown.

2.08 Airport revenues have, over the last five years, exceeded expendi- tures by a yearly average of TT$ 1.5 million. A ParliamentaryCommittee has recommendedthe creation of an autonomousAirports Authority. The Govern- ment proposes to constructnew passengerand cargo terminal buildings at Piarco, extend the present runway from 9,500 feet to 11,000 feet, provide a taxiway and a 200-mile range radar, and establishan industrialpark on the airport periphery.

C. Transport Policy, Planning and Coordination

2.09 Although overall authority for national developmentpolicy, planning and inter-sectoralcoordination is vested in the Ministry of Planning and Development (MPD), sectoral planning is carried out, somewhat ineffectively, by small planning offices in each ministry. Transport planning is carried out in MIOW,the Ministry of Public Utilities (NPU) and the Ministry of Local Government (MLG). The MOW Highways Division is responsiblefor the planning of national roads. The MPU is indirectlyinvolved in transportplanning through its jurisdictionover the Ports Authority and the Division of Civil Aviation (DCA); MLG, through its six county councils and three municipalities, is responsiblefor all county roads and city streets. The Trinidad Transport Board, made up of individualsfrom the Governmentand the private sector, advises the Minister of Works on traffic control, weights, vehicle registra- tion and transportrates and duties. - 4 -

2.10 A national transportstudy carried out for the Governmentin 1967 by consultants (C. C. Parker and Parsons, BrinckerhoffLtd., Canada) concluded that improvementof the national highway system was the most urgent transport need. Implementationof the study's recommendationsis lagging far behind schedule as a result of competing claims on inadequateresources and a lack of manpower being devoted to the transport sector.

D. Policy and Planning in the East-WestCorridor

2.11 The "East-WestCorridor" -- the most densely populated area of Trinidad -- extends from Cocorite (near Diego Martin), five miles west of Port-of-Spain,through the capital itself, to Arima, about 16 miles to the east. About 400,000 people (40% of the total populationof Trinidad and Tobago) live in the corridor.

2.12 There has been diffusion of activity in the Corridor for some years, e.g., there is considerableindustrial development at Arima. MPD has studied the rational developmentof the area and, in February 1975, published,in draft, its report "Planningfor Development: The Capital Region" 1/. The major pro- posals of the report include:

(a) national developmentthrough growth poles, with the Capital Region as one such pole;

(b) a policy of dispersed economnicactivity within the Capital Region;

(c) a land use policy based on industriallocation, new resi- dential and agriculturalareas; and

(d) urgent formulationand impleamentationof measures to ameliorateexisting, and to anticipatefuture, infrastructural deficiencies -- including those relating to transport -- in the Corridor and, specificaLly,in Port-of-Spain. The Governmentis already committed to the idea of developmentthrough growth poles, and most of the proposals in the draft report are already being imple- mented by the responsibleagencies, e.g., new sites have been identifiedin the suburbs for relocationof some ministriesand industriesfrom Port-of-Spain, and other projects for water supply, irrigation,agriculture and forestry are being executed.

2.13 The Governmenthas been aware of the transportationproblem in the Corridor for some years. Specifically,in 1972, with assistancefrom CIDA, it commissionedconsultants (Lea (Canada)/TRINTOPLAN(Trinidad)) to carry out, for the period 1975-1995,planning and feasibility studies and preliminary design for road improvementsin the Corridor. The study was completed in May 1974; the consultants'recommendat:ions are discussed in paragraph 2.15.

1/ The Capital Region covers about 200 square miles, extending from the northern range watershed to the ALrimaand Guanapo rivers on the east and the Caroni river on the south. 2.14 In the course ofithe Lea/TRINTOPLAWStudy, it became obvious that public transportcould play a major role in the Corridor. The Government thereforewidened the scope of the consultants'work to include recommenda- tions on the design, implementation,operation and managementof a priority transit system. This addiitionalwork was completed in September 1974.

2.15 The main study (para. 2.13) recommendeda three phase program, with emphasis on a shift from private to public transportation(hence the priority transit system study was undertaken). The consultantsprovided details of the first phase only since they considered that later phases would largely depend on developmentsafter the first phase was completed. Recom- mendations for the first phase were designed to tackle the most obvious and urgent constraintsin the Corridor and included the following (Map IBRD 11696):

(a) constructionof the Mucurapo Foreshore Highway (this is part of the Corridor to the west of Port-of-Spain)and of appro- priate connectionsto the existing road system;

(b) widening of the Beetham and Churchill-RooseveltHighways as far east as the Southern Main Road;

(c) duplicationof the Market Interchangeand widening of the adjacent St. Joseph Road to IndependenceSquare;

(d) constructionof a new road linking Eastern Main Road with Princess Margaret Highway;

(e) constructionof a bus-priorityroute, initially from Port-of-Spaineastward to Arouca (12 miles), includingnew depots and a downtown terminal;

(f) specifically,with regard to the Central Business District (CBD) of Port-of-Spain:

-- development and enforcement of parking regulations

-- charging for street parking at a level which would reflect the cost to the community

-- improved traffic regulation and control, including signs, channelizations, provision of one-way streets, and signals

-- improved enforcement of traffic regulations and

-- provision of off-street parking areas. 2.16 The consultants'recommendations, stemming from the expanded study (para. 2.14), dealt mLainlywith a "Bus-PriorityRoute" using the right- of-way of an abandoned railway, and made recommendationson the design of the route and terminals, thLetype and number of buses, the maintenance facil- ities, and the organizationalstructure for a "PriorityRoute Authority". - 6 -

2.17 Governmentaction to date on the recommendationsof both studies can be consideredunder two headings: urgent physical improvementsand institutionalimprovements. Regardingurgent physical improvements,the Governmenthas:

(a) begun widening a section of the Churchill-Roosevelt Highway between Aranguez and Princess Margaret Highway;

(b) completed final design to connect PiccadillyStreet and its link to St. Joseph Road, in Port-of-Spain,which is a necessary complement to some of the works proposed under the project;

(c) programmedall other road improvements(including construction of the first 12 miles of the Bus-PriorityRoute) recommended by the consultantsin Phase I (para. 2.15), to be completed by 1980 (at an average annual expenditure of about US$8 million during the five-year period); and

(d) increasedthe number of transit buses from about 170 in 1974 to 320 by the end of 1975 and has ordered a further 430 to be in operation by the end of 1976.

Regarding institutionalimprovements, the Government is actively studying:

(e) the creation of a permanent traffic management agency which would deal with all urban transport problems,beginningwith traffic in the CBD of Port--of-Spain;and

(f) the recommendationsrelating to the establishmentof a transit authority.

2.18 The major componentsof the proposed project (upgradingof the Beetham and Churchill-RooseveltHighways and associatedimprovements, and detailed engineeringfor the .I'ucurapoForeshore Highway, the Princess Margaret Highway and the Bus-PriorityRoute) xwouldhelp materially to implementvital transportimprovements in the Corridor. However, these improvementsin them- selves would not be sufficientto so:.vethe long-term problems of the Corridor, and it is crucial that complementaryaction, specificallydevelopment of the Bus-PriorityRoute, commence without delay. Detailed engineeringfor the Bus--PriorityRoute is included in the Project. During negotiations,an assur- ance was obtained from the Government:that a timetable for the construction and operationof the Bus-PriorityRoute would be furnished to the Bank by December 31, 1977. -7-

3. THE HIIGHW4AYSUBSECTOR

A. The Road Network

3.01 Trinidad and Tobago has a road network of about 4,400 miles 1/: 1,900 miles are national highways under the jurisdictionof MOW, and the remainderare under MLG. Over 90% of the national highways are paved; however, many of them are paved only with the naturallyoccurring Trinidad Lake asphalt, which does not have the internal mechanical strength to cope with modern wheel loadings. As can be seen from Table 1, neither the total mileage nor the paved mileage of the national highways has grown signifi- cantly over the last ten years; on the contrary, considerablepavement deterio- ration has taken place during that period.

3.02 There are two major transport corridors in Trinidad, the East-West Corridor (para. 2.11) and the North-SouthCorridor, which joins the East- West Corridor six miles east of Port-of-Spain,and extends south to San Fernando and beyond to the developingpetroleum industry zones in the southwest of the island. Additionally,a cross-islandroute from San Fernando to the southeastof Trinidad, Naparima-MayaroRoad, is becoming increasinglyimportant due to petroleum explorationand productionoff the east coast (Map IBRD 11676).

B. Characteristicsand C,rowthof Road Traffic

3.03 The number of motor vehicles increasedon average by 5.3% p.a. during the past decade, from about 67,000 in 1964 to 112,000 in 1974 (Table 2). Some 71% (79,000)of the vehicles are private cars; 9% (9,300) are taxis and hire cars; aLnd20% (23,000)are buses, trucks and tractors. The rate of growth of motor vehicles is decreasingand, in recent years, has been below 5% p.a. Vehicle density is about 100 vehicles per 1,000 inhabitants.

3.04 The public bus company, Public Transport Service Corporation (PTSC), is increasingits operationalbus fleet (para. 2.17). The Governmentrecently approved a request by PTSC for an additional 430 units to provide a minimum essential bus service throughoutthe country by 1977. PTSC plans to provide an adequate level of countrywideservice by 1980.

3.05 Road traffic data are not collected systematically,and the last countrywidesurvey was carried out in 1967 as part of the preparationfor the National TransportationPlan. Traffic counts in 1973 and 1974, specifically for the East-West Corridor study, indicatedan average daily traffic in the range of 22,000 to 27,000 vpd on the two-lane Churchill-RooseveltHighway as far as Southern Main Road, and 37,000 vpd on the four-laneBeetham Highway. The Western MIainRoad and the Eastern Main Road carry up to 50,000 and 40,000

1/ This correspondsto 2.6 miles of road per square mile or 4.5 miles of road per 1,000 inhabiitants. - 8 -

vpd, respectively. In the North-SouthCorridor and on the Princess Margaret Highway and the Solomon-HochoyHighway, traffic ranges between 13,000 and 18,000 vpd, and, on the cross-islandroad between San Fernando and the east coast, from 8,600 to 3,000 vpd. Traffic congestion is now severe along all the East-West Corridor roads and on the Princess Margaret Highway. Average annual traffic growth on the above roads since 1966 has ranged from 5% to 10%. Traffic growth in other parts of Trinidad must have been considerablylower since records of vehicle fuel consumption (Table 3) show that, in the period 1970 to 1974, the annual consumptionof gasoline and diesel oil increasedby only 5% and 2%, respectively.

C. Highway Planning and Financing

3.06 Highway investmentprograms are prepared by MOW, but MPD exercises overall control of Government investment (para. 2.09). The highway program forl975-1980includes only investmentsin the East-West and North-South Transport Corridors. 1/ However, MOW realizes that road investmentsare needed in other areas of the country, especially the extension south of the Solomon Hochoy Highway and the cross-islandroute to the southeast. As part of a CIDA-financedRoad Maintenanceand AdministrationStudy, scheduled to commence late 1976, the 1967 National TransportationPlan (para. 2.10) will be updated, and MOW intends to revise its investmentprogram accordingly. The planning capability of the Highways Division of MOW, although gradually improving, is grossly inadequate to carry out the program envisaged for the next decade, and technical assistance to help in this area has thereforebeen provided under the proposed project.

3.07 National highway expenditures,including construction,maintenance, equipment, studies and engineering,and administration,increased from a yearly average of TT$ 10 million in 1964-1968to TT$ 20 million in 1970-1974. The highway expenditureforecast (in 1975 prices) shows a moderate increase in 1976-1980 to a yearly average of about TT$ 28 million (Table 4) 2/.

3.08 Highway expendituresare financed from the Government'sgeneral budget since there is no earmarking of specific taxes. Between 1967 and 1973, road user charges more than covered total road expenditures. For 1974, it is estimated that the road user charges covered about 90% of the total expenditures,as a result of temporarymeasures taken by the Government to fight the economic recession by maintaining a constant retail price of gasoline through a reduction in sales tax (Tables 5 and 6).

1/ Pavement strengtheningof other roads, commenced in 1974, is not consid- ered by the Government as investment,but rather as maintenance (para. 3.13).

2/ The figuresmay be revised upward later as a result of the updating of the 1967 TransportationPlan (para. 3.06). - 9-

D. Highway Administration

3.09 14OW,through its Highways Division (OrganizationalCharts I and II), is responsible for planning, construction and maintenance of national highways. The Highways Division is organized on recommendations made by the consultantsMead Carney and Company Ltd. (UK) in 1964. The Division has three branches dealing with bridges, road planning and road construction. The bridges branch is responsiblefor regular inspection of bridges and culverts, their maintenanceand repairs, and supervisionof bridge contracts. The road planning branch is responsiblefor preparing plans for road works, supervisingroad contracts,and maintaining the road inventory. The road constructionbranch is responsiblefor maintainingnational highways as authorized by the road planming branch. In addition, a temporaryunit for highway projects was set up in 1974 to coordinate studies and engineering carried out by consultants. Plant and equipmentare provided and maintained by an equipmentbranch of the ConstructionServices Division of MOW. Most of the equipmentin service is over five years old; nevertheless,the propor- tion under repair at any one time does not seem excessive. Equipment required solely for roadworks is permanentlyallocated to the Highways Division.

3.10 The Highways Division has 18 posts for engineers. Until recently, there were six vacancies, but these have now been filled through recruitment of graduates from the University of the West Indies, Trinidad. Additional posts are being created to meet counterpart requirements for the proj- ect. The senior engineersare fairly experiencedand capable, and the organi- zation has become more effLcient in the past few years. However, insufficient attention is being given to: (a) collection,monitoring and analysis of road and traffic data; (b) coordinationof, and participationin, consultants'work; (c) contract administration,including field supervisionof contractors'work; (d) planning of investments;(e) design and execution of upgrading and strength- ening of existing roads; and (f) soils and materials testing. The technical assistance included in the project would help to improve performance in these areas.

E. Highway Engineering

3.11 The Highways Division is responsiblefor all engineeringaspects (survey,site and laboratory investigation,feasibility studies, detailed design and constructionsupervision) of national highway projects, and also provides technicalassistance, where required, for road projects not under the jurisdictionof MOW. Design standards for new highways generallycon- form with modern principles and are appropriate. Studies and engineeringof major projects have been carried out by foreign consultantsin generallyjoint venture with local consultants,usually TRINTOPLAN,which is partly Government- owned. The Government intends to give local consultantsincreasing participation in future engineeringprojects, with expatriate input being limited to specific fields in which the local capabilityor capacity is insufficient. F. Highway Construction

3.12 All major road constructionis performed by contract; the Highways Division force account work is limited to culverts, small bridges, some - 1cI - asphalticwork and minor improvementsto road alignments. The major new constructionin the past ten years has been the 17-mileSolomon Hochoy Highway, the four-lane expresswayconstructed under the Bank-financed(First)

Highway Project (Loan 497-TR). It was built by a foreign contractorwith - one of the larger local firms as subcontractor. Foreign consultants (Frederic R. Harris, Inc. (US)),appointed after the unsatisfactoryexperience with the original consultants(para. 1.02), supervised the construction. Local con- tractorswere engaged in asphaltic concrete overlaywork and some minor road- works and structures,but the industry,in general, is small and inexperienced. Technicalassistance to help this domestic constructionindustry is included in the proposed project.

G. Highway Maintenance

3.13 Maintenanceof the national roads is performedby the roads constructionbranch of the Highways Division (Chart II). Routine and periodic maintenanceis carried out from eight district offices. Until 1974,_roadmain- tenance tended to be neglected and, under increasingtraffic and axle loads, pavementsdeteriorated. In 1974, MOW embarked on a resurfacingprogram -- some 107 miles of roads were overlayed in that year, 130 miles in 1975 and a similarmileage is expected to be treated in 1976. However, design of overlay does not appear to have received sufficientattention. The proposed project (para. 4.01) would assist in two ways:

(a) by providingtechnical assistance to help plan, design and superviseresurfacing works more rationally than before, i.e., by the use of pavement deflection techniques;and

(b) by helping to finance some 60 miles of resurfacingon rural roads.

3.14 Bridge and culvert maintenanceand reconstructionare executed by the bridges branch of the Highways Division. Eight squads are presently employed,and an average of 15 structureshas been replaced annually since 1973. This output is being increasedsince bridge load restrictionsare still applicableon many roads, necessitatingan uneconomicaldiversion of traffic. The CIDA-financedRoad Maintenanceand AdministrationStudy (para. 3.06) is to cover the requirementsfor rehabilitationof bridges and culverts.

4. THE ]PROJECT

A. General Description

4.01 The project would consist of:

(a) upgrading of about 7.6 miles of main highways in the East-West Corridor, provision of two grade-separated interchanges and construction and improvement:of about 2.6 miles of local roads; - 11 -

(b) strengtheningof about 60 miles of paved rural roads;

(c) supervisionof items (a) and (b);

(d) detailed engineeringof (a) above and of other high priority projects;

(e) technicalassistance, including training:

- to MOW for planning,design, and executionof new road projects and for rehabilitationand strengthening of existing roads; and

- to help develop the domestic constructionindustry.

The project would address, primarily, the transportationproblems in the East-WestCorridor by (a) helping to finance the most urgently retquiredworks and (b) helping to prepare the next stage of developmentof the transportation system in the Corridors. It would also address the problems of rural roads in Trinidad and Tobago, and, institutionally,it would concentrateon two key areas - the Highways Division of MOW and the domestic constructionindustry - by providing training at managerial and specialist levels.

B. Project Elements

(i) Civil Works

Upgrading in the East-West Corridor

4.02 The East-West Corridor (para. 2.11) is now severely congested throughoutmost of the day, particularlyin the western approach to Port- of-Spain from Cocorite, near Diego Martin, and in the six miles immediately east of the city. The main Corridor roads to the east of Port-of-Spainare:

(a) the Eastern MaLinRoad: a two-lane road starting in Port- of-Spain,passing through the closely linked towns of San Juan, St. Joseph, Tunapuna, Tacarigua,Arouca and Arima. Traffic varies from 22,000 to 40,000 vpd;

(b) the Beetham Highway (south of, and almost parallel to, the Eastern Main Road), a 2.5-mile four-lanedivided highway, with inadequateshoulders and undulating pavement, carrying about 37,000 vpd 1/;

1/ The Beetham Highway iLsconstructed at the edge of the Laventille swamp, where very soft alluvrialclay layers occur to a depth of about 20 feet. - 12 -

(c) the Churchill-RooseveltHighway, a 16-mile two-lane rural highway, located between one and two miles south of the Eastern Main Road, beginningat the Barataria roundabout. Between the roundaboutand the Princess Margaret Highway, traffic averages 25,000 vpd, and between the Princess Margaret Highway and the Southern Main Road, 22,000 vpd.

On the Beetham and Churchill-RooseveltHighways, average peak and off-peak speeds 1/ are 15 and 25 mph, respectively. Average speeds are even lower on t'heEastern Main Road.

4.03 Three basically different schemes were studied in the East-West Corridor Study (para. 2.13). Schemes I and II assumed the the proportion of piassengertrips between private cars, taxis and buses would continue as at present. Scheme I proposed a staged expresswayand freeway system to accommodate projected traffic,while Scheme II relied to a greater extent than Scheme I on arterial roads. Schime III was based on a strategy to move passenger trips from automobilesto buses and public transport;this was to be accomplishedthrough a significantimprovement in the level of service for bus passengers(a) by providinga two-lane Bus-PriorityRoute between Port-of-Spainand Arima and (b) by improving the reliabilityand frequency of the bus services. The Governmentagreed, in principle, to Scheme III, and detailed feasibilitystudies were carried out for the Scheme III, Phase I, constructionprogram (1976-1980). The recommendationsfrom these studies were approved by the Governmentin September 1975, and the first 12 miles of the Bus-PriorityRoute to Arouca were inc:'udedin the five-year construction program.

4.04 The upgradingworks in the East-West Corridor included in the project comprise part of the Phase I works for Scheme III (para. 4.03) as follows:

(a) widening of St. Joseph Road (1/4 mile) in Port-of-Spain; this would improve access to downtown Independence Square. A necessary element:for improving traffic distribution within Port-of-Spainis the opening of a link between Piccadilly Street and St. Joseph Road before completionof the St. Joseph Road widening. During negotiations,an assurance to this effect was obtained from the GoverrLment,and agreementwas reached on the design standards to be adopted.

(b) constructionof the Market Interchange (3/4 mile of ramps and flyover between St. Joseph Road and Beetham Highway to double the existing flyover capacity) and construction, below the interchange,of connectionsbetween the Eastern Main Road and St. Joseph Road and South Quay (about 0.6 mile );

1/ "Peak" signifies, here and elsewhere in this report, an average congested condition extending over about six hours a day; about 44% of the daily traffic passes in this period. - 13 -

(c) improvementof Beetham Highway (1-3/4 miles) by provision of shoulders, localizedwidening and asphaltic overlay;

(d) constructionof Barataria Interchange(1/2 mile of ramps and flyovers to link Beetham and Churchill-Roosevelt Highways and to provide improved access to the Eastern Main Road and Lady Young Road);

(e) widening from two to four lanes, and improvement,of the Churchill-RooseveltHighway over a distance of 2-1/2 miles up to Aranguez road;

(f) similar widening of the Churchill-RooseveltHighway over the 1-1/4 miles between the Princess Margaret Highway and the Southern Main Road; and

(g) constructionand improvementof about two miles of local paved roads and about 0.6 mile of gravel agriculturaltracks in the East-WestCorridor.

4.05 In total, (a) through (f) above comprise about 7.6 miles of highway improvement.1/ Design standardsare indicated in Table 7. The work would include embankment construction(including preloading where necessary to accelerate settlementof the compressiblesoils in the Laventille Swamp), two footbridges,four bridges and two grade-separatedinterchanges, and paving of some short lengths of service roads. The two interchangesare complex, and their superstructureshave been designed to permit bidding, at the bidders' option, in either steel or prestressedconcrete. Normal equipment/ labor mix is appropriatefor the work, and the constructionis expected to provide employment for up to 1,000 skilled and unskilled workers.

4.06 The project would have a beneficial impact on the environment due to a reduction of stops and starts of vehicles and a consequent reduction of exhaust fumes. The dense population along the Eastern Main Road would also benefit considerablyfrom a diversion of traffic to the Beetham/Churchill- Roosevelt system. 4.07 Although the Beeltham/Churchill-Rooseveltsystem primarily serves traffic between the south and east of the island and Port-of-Spain, improved driving conditions on the road sections included in the project are likely to lead to a diversion of traffic away from the heavily congestedEastern Main Road, which now carries up to 40,000 vpd, including 95% of the transit buses and 60% of the taxis. In the short run, therefore,a better distribution of traffic between the two road systems is likely to result, and public transportvehicles which uisethe Eastern Main Road would be able to operate under less congested conditions than at present. At the same time, the upgrad- ing of the Beetham/ChurchiLl-Rooseveltsystem may result in an increase of

1/ The one-mile section Df the Churchill-RooseveltHighway between Aranguez Road and Princess Margaret Highway is already being upgraded to four lanes, by the Government, to provide an intermediatesolution for easing of con- gestion during peak hours prior to completion of the proposed project roads. - 14i -

private car commuting. It is common in Trinidad and Tobago that private automobilesare used as collectivecabs. Nevertheless,measures to discourage the use of the private automobilein the Port-of-Spainarea are warranted. An indicationof such measures is given in paragraph 2.15(f). These measures require further study, both to define them in detail and to determine the appropriate timing for their implementation. The consultantswho carried out the study for improvementsin the East-West Corridor concluded that implemen- tation of the measures for traffic regulations,as outlined in paragraph 2.15(f) above, should be staged to the developmentof the highway and bus transit system.

4.08 During negotiations,assurances were obtained from Governmenton the following:

(a) that it is committed in principle to implementingthe measures outlined in paragraph 2.15(f) in the CBD of Port-of-Spain;and

(b) that the institutionalmachinery needed to implement such measures would be operationalnot later than June 30, 1976.

An agreement was reached during negotiationsthat the Governmentwould estab- lish an agency responsiblefor the formulationand implementationof a con- tinuing traffic managementsystem with the objective of ensuring economic use of existing transportresources and of facilitatingthe developmentof public transportservices. Outline terms of reference of the activitiesof the agency were discussed during negotiations.

4.09 An assurancewas obtained from the Governmentthat it would consult with the Bank, not later than January 31, 1977, on a timetable for implementing the measures outlined in paragraph 2.15(f), taking into account the recommen- dations of the agency referred to in paragraph 4.08.

Strengtheningof Paved Rural Roads

4.10 The project includes strengtheningof about 60 miles of rural roads; the work envisaged comprises improvementof drainage, correctionof localized failures and, generally,an asphaltic overlay or reseal. Minor alignmentmodifications would be made to improve road safety. The work should be suitable for developing labor-intensivemethods of working. The road sections to be strengthenedwould be selected, in agreement with the Bank, from the 200 miles of representativerural roads (para. 4.12) and would representa wide range of conditionsto maximize the experiencethat the Governmentand local contractors should derive from this work.

(ii) Detailed Engineering

4.11 The detailed engineeringincluded in the project relates to four constructionpackages:

(a) upgradingworks in the East-West Corridor included in the proposed project (paras. 4.04 and 4.05); - 15 -

(b) the Bus-PriorityRoute to Arouca (12 miles) (para. 4.03) using the right-of-wayof the railway, which formerly ran between Port-of-Spainand Arima;

(c) the Mucurapo ForeshoreHighway (two miles), part of the East-WestCorridor west of Port-of-Spain,with connections to Wrightson Road and Ariapita Avenue;

(d) Princess Margaret Highway (8 miles). The Princess Margaret Highway will eventuallybe widened from the present two lanes to a four lane highway, to connect the Solomon IlochoyHighway with the Churchill-Roosevelt Highway. The feasibilitystudy was carried out as part of the (First)Highway Project, and the construction envisagedwould complete a four-lanehighway (32 miles) between Port-of-Spainand the island's second largest town, San Fernando.

(iii) TechnicalAssistance

4.12 Technical assistancewould be provided under the project and would be directed at (i) MOW and (ii) the domestic constructionindustry. Assistance to MOW would be designed to help it to:

(a) overcome deficienciesin highway planning; (b) establish and imtplementprocedures for collection and analysis of data relating to the road system and its traffic; (c) survey, using modern techniques,about 200 miles of representativerural road sections in need of improvement; (d) carry out axle load survey, pavement deflection measurementsancl pavement design of these 200 miles; and (e) (from these 200 miles) develop a two-year program of road improvement: and select about 60 miles to be strengthened uncder the project (para. 4.10), prepare bidding documents and supervise the work.

The technical assistance would be, in effect, on-the-job training for MOW engineers and technicians. An outline of the terms of reference for this assistance is given in Amnex 1. The selection of about 200 miles of repre- sentativerural road sect:Lonsin need of improvementwas agreed during negotiations. 4.13 Lack of continuLty of large civil works in Trinidad has meant that foreign contractors have dominated the market because, through working in a number of countries, they have been able to absorb relatively easily a fluctuatingworkload in any one of them. Local contractorshave therefore been confined to relativeLy small scale works such as asphalticwork, construc- tion of culverts and small bridges and have become relatively efficient in - 16 -

this limited work. Technical assistancewould be provided under the project to assist developmentof the industry. An ongoing study of the construction industry,directed by a committee responsibleto the Prime Minister, is due for completion in early 1977. Areas where technical assistancewould be beneficialwould be identifiedby the study. Basically, the technicalassist- ance would focus on (a) the industry itself and (b) Governmentdepartments, notably MOW, to identify how such departmentsmay assist the industry signi- ficantly, e.g., by improving the legal frameworkof Governmentcontracts and the procedure for paying contractors,and by maintaininga steady and predict- able workload for the industry. The assistancecould also examine the capital needs of the industry and how they might be met. Terms of reference for this assistancewould be agreed with the Government when the results of the ongoing study are available.

C. Cost Estimates,Financing and Disbursements

4.14 The total cost of the proposed project is estimatedat US$28.5 million equivalent, 1/ with a foreign component of US$14.1 million equivalent. A summary of costs is as follows (detailsare given in Table 8):

Foreign Bank Exchange Partici- TT$ Million US$ Million Component pation Local Foreign Total Local Foreign Total % US$ %

I. Civil Works 1/ 25.83 24.65 50.48 10.40 10.40 20.80 49 4.5 22

II. Consulting Services (a) Supervision of civil works 2.60 1.70 4.30 1.10 0.70 1.80 40 0.7 40

(b) Detailed Engineering3.10 2.10 5.20 1.30 0.90 2.20 40 0.9 40 III. Technical Assistance 0.30 1.60 1.90 0.12 0.68 0.80 80 0.3 40 IV. Contingencies (a) Physical (5% of I) 1.20 1.20 2.40 0.50 0.50 1.00 50 0.2 20 (b) Provision for future price in- creases (7% of I, II & III) 2.25 2.25 4.50 0.95 0.95 1.90 50 0.4 21 35.28 33.50 68,78 14.37 14.13 28.50 50 7.0 25 1/lExcludes cost of right-of-way,estimated at US$0.5 million. - 17 -

4.15 Estimates for highiwayupgrading in the East-West Corridor have been based on detailed engineeringprepared by the consultantsLea/TRINTOPLAN and the results of the bidding (February1976). The average constructioncost in the Corridor is US$1.6 mill:ionper mile of four-laneroad, excluding two grade-separatedinterchanges, supervision, contingencies and land acquisition; includingthese, the cost is estimatedat US$3.0 million per mile of four-lane road. This is relatively expensive,but must be considered in the light of (a) the heavy pavements needed for the traffic; (b) the ten intersectionswith traffic lights and two foot bridges; (c) poor soil conditions; (d) numerous creeks to be crossed; and (e) the two interchanges.

4.16 Estimates for strengtheningof about 60 miles of rural roads have been based on the assumption that these works would be carried out by local contractorsand that the strengtheningwould normally consist of an asphaltic overlay of an average thickness of two inches 1/ togetherwith necessary ancillarywork such as improvementof drainage. The estimatedunit cost, US$35,000 per mile, reflects the current experiencewith local contractors performing similar work.

4.17 Supervisioncosts are predicated on a joint venture of foreign and local consultants,with M4OWassistance. The consultants'services have been estimated at about 14 man-years for professionalengineers, at an average cost of US$45,000per man-year. The estimate for supervision amounts to about 10% of constructioncosts. The cost of detailed engineering and technicalassistance to MOW is based on consultants'cost of US$50,000 per professionalman-year. The estimate for the technicalassistance to develop the domestic constructionindustry has been based on the assumption that this assistancewould be provided by individual foreign consultants estimatedto cost US$45,000 per man-year, for about 20 man-months.

4.18 A contingencyal]Lowance of about 5% of constructioncosts has been included to allow for increases in quantities;this is considered adequate in view of the detailed engineeringcarried out, particularlyconsidering that. for much of the work (e.g., structures and paving), quantities can be estimated with confidence. Provision for future price increaseshas been calculated separatelyfor all items and amounts to about 7% of the total base costs (Table 8). This figure is lower than normal, since the conditions of con- tract limit price adjustment to selected materials, and then only after the first year of the contract period. Price adjustment for variations in labor, equipment, etc. are not permittedunder the conditions of contract;hence, the contractor'sallowance for such adjustmentshas already been included automaticallyin the bid price.

4.19 The foreign exchange cost of the project is estimated at US$14.1 million equivalent;of this, the proposed loan would finance US$7.0 million equivalent. An assurance was obtained from the Government during negotiations that the remaining foreign exchange costs and all local costs would be met by the Government.

1/ The design of the strengtheningworks would be carried out in conjunction with the consultantsproviding the technical assistance to MOW. - 18 -

4.20 Disbursement of the loan would be made as follows:

(a) for civil works, 22% of tDtal cost (equivalentto 43% of the foreign exchange costs); and

(b) for consultingservices and technicalassistance, 40% of total cost (representing,on average, 83% of the foreign exchange cost).

Retroactivefinancing, from the proDosed loan, of up to US$300,000 is recommen- ded for detailed engineeringof the project works in the East-West Corridor, carried out since June 1974.

4.21 Based on the foregoingand on the implementationschedule indicated in Annex 2, estimateddisbursement of loan funds would be as indicatedin Table 9. Loan funds remainingon completionof the project, if any, should be cancelled.

D. Execution

4.22 Executionof the project would be the responsibilityof MOW. Con- tracts for the civil works in the EaLst-WestCorridor (representing90% of all the civil works proposed under the project) would be procured by international competitivebidding in accordancew:ith the Bank's Guidelines. The works for bidding purposes were divided into t:hreesections, and bidders were given the option to bid for any or all of the sections. Bids are currently being examined,and it appears that the lowest evaluatedbid will be one for the completeworks. This bid was submittedby a foreign firm, but it is expected thaLtlocal firms will participateas subcontractors. The details and schedule for. procurement were agreed during negotiations.

4.23 Strengtheningof about 60 miles of rural roads is well within the comipetenceof local firms and would be procured by competitivebidding ad- vertised locally. The work would be bid in at least three lots to ensure the possibility of participation by the smaller local firms. It would also be beneficial to MOW if force account working were permitted, at least to carry out:the necessary preliminaryworks. In Tobago, it may be advantageousto execute the limitedworks by Ministry of Tobago Affairs force account. During negotiations,agreement was reached with the Government on the details and schedule for procurementand the basis for involvementof force account works.

4.24 Supervisionof the civil wrorks would be carried out by foreign consultants in joint venture with local consultants and with participation by MOW. The number and qualificaticins of MOW staff to be provided, the conditionsand terms of referenceunder which consultantswould be retained for the supervision,and the nature of the working arrangementsbetween the consultantsand MOW were agreed during negotiations.

4.25 Detailed engineeringof the highest priority sections in the East-lWestCorridor (constructionof which is included in the project) has already been carried out by the consultantsLea/TRINTOPLAN. The Bank had - 19 -

no objectionsto the conditionsand terms of referencefor the consultants' services,and the work has been carried out to the Bank's satisfaction.

4.26 Detailed engineeringof the further high priority sections would be carried out by foreign and local consultantsin joint venture. During negotiations,agreement was reached with the Governmenton conditionsand terms of referenceunder which the consultantswould be retained.

4.27 TechnicalassistEnce programs for MOW and to help develop the domestic constructionindustry would be provided either by a firm of consul- tants or by individualconsultants. The assistancewould be procured by the Governmentunder terms and conditionsacceptable to the Bank; agreement on the conditionsand terms of ref-erencefor the consultantsto be retained for assistance to MOW was reached during negotiations. For assistanceto the domestic constructionindustry, the conditionsand terms of referencewould be agreed with the Governmentwhen the results of the ongoing study are available.

4.28 A suitable implemaentationschedule, covering all elements of the project, is given in Annex 2; this schedule was discussed and agreed with Governmentduring negotiations. This annex also shows appropriate supervisory input by the Bank. Indicatorsby which the project may be monitored are given in Annex 3. The purpose of project indicators,and the specific indi- cators to be used for this project, were agreed during negotiations,as well as the arrangements for coLlecting the informationduring, and after, the imple- mentation stage.

5. ECONOMICEVALUATION

A. General

5.01 The quantitative economic evaluation concentrates on (a) the up- grading works in the East-West Corridor and (b) strengtheningof about 60 miles of rural roads. These two elements, including the detailed engineering of (a) and the supervisionof both, would account for about 90% of the proposed investmentunder the project and would yield an economic return of about 25%. The remaining elements of the project (detailedengineering of further high- priority projects in the Corridor and technicalassistance) are discussed in qualitative terms only.

B. Upgrading in the East-West Corridor

5.02 The East-WestCorridor is described in paragraph 2.11; the main roads in the Corridor to the east of Port-of-Spain-- the area of the proposed up- grading works -- and their current traffic levels are described in paragraph 4.02 (see also NlapIBRD 111696). Essentially,the Corridor east of Port-of-Spain comprises two subcorridors,that centered on the EasternMain Road and that centered on the Beetham/Churchill-Rooseveltsystem. The two subcorridorsare approximatelyparallel, one to two miles apart. The Eastern Main Road is characterizedby almost continuousdevelopment, heavy populationdensity and - 20 -

traffic which largely serves the populationlocated around and along it. The proposed project roads, the Beetliam/Churchill-Rooseveltsystem, on the other hand, are characterizedby very light populationdensity and long distance traffic which serves the east of the island, and, by way of the Princess Margaret and Solomon Hochoy Highways, San Fernando -- the second largest city -- and the petroleum industry areas of the southwest. Governmentaction to develop the Corridor is indicated in paragraph 2.12; action specificallyre- lated to transportationproblems in the Corridor (paras.2.13-2.17) can be summarizedas follows:

(a) immediatealleviation of currentlyunacceptable traffic congestion;

(b) preparation(including detailed engineering)for a Bus-Priority Route using the right-of-wayof an abandoned railway line; and

(c) traffic improvementsin Port-of-Spainitself.

5.03 The improvementworks included in the project would alleviate the worst of the current congestionand, in fact, form part of the first phase of the 15-year plan to improve transportationin the Corridor (para. 4.03). The project works are described in detaiL in paragraph 4.04.

(i) Traffic

5.04 Current (1974) traffic levels in the Corridor east of Port-of-Spain are indicated in Table 10. Congestionis severe; current average speeds on the project roads are 15 and 25 mph in peak and off-peak periods, respectively. During the height of the rush hours, average speeds drop to less than 10 mph. The traffic compositionfor the roads is indicated in Table 10. The proposed worlkson the Beetham/Churchill-Rooseveltsystem are expected to increase ave- rage speeds to 25 and 35 mph in peak and non-peak periods, respectively. AADT on the roads in the Corridor grew in the period 1966-1974between 5 and 10% p.a. However, the growth rate appears to be declining,and the consultants who have carried out the transportat:ionstudy in the Corridor (paras. 2.13, 2.14) have estimated that, as a resuLt of the Governmentpolicy of decentrali- zat:Lonin the Corridor (para. 2.12) and the shift from the private automobile to bus transit, AADT will grow at less than 3% p.a. for the next 15-20 years (Table 11). The proposed works under the project, combined with this reduction in traffic growth, would have the eff-ectof increasingaverage speeds on the Beetham/Churchill-Rooseveltsystem to 25 and 35 mph in the peak and off-peak periods, respectively.

(ii) Benefits

5.05 In view of the fact that the area along the proposed project road is already well developed,no developmentbenefits are expected from the projject. Quantifiablebenefits attributableto the project works have been limited in this evaluationto those arising from a reduction in the level of congestion on the Beetham/Churchill-Rooseveltsystem, from the consequent higher speeds and from the more stable flow of traffic. Speed/flowrelation- ships specific to the system were derived by the consultants;operating speeds - 21 - and associated operatingcosts, at peak and off-peak periods, without and with the proposedworks, are ind:Lcatedin Table 12. Vehicle operatingcosts, as a result of the proposedworks, are expected to reduce in the opening year (1978)by about 17% on average (weightedaverage of TTJ 7 per mile) and travel time by about 35% (weightedaverage of 15 minutes on the seven-mile road section). Much of the traffic on the project road originatesfrom, or is destined to, points east of Arima, central and southern parts of Trinidad,all of which depend on Port-of-Spainfor commercialand other activities.

5.06 There are also unquantifiablebenefits. Firstly, the present stop/ start and stagnant traffic pattern would be reduced, with a consequentreduc- tion in emission from vehicles and a general improvementto environment. The improvementof the Beetham/Churchill-Rooseveltsystem would undoubtedlyattract some traffic from the (parallel)Eastern Main Road, thus helping to alleviate the appalling congestionthere to the benefit of the large populationcentered along the road. At present, about 95% of the transitbuses and 60% of the taxis operate on the EasternMain Road. By divertingmost of the long distance traffic (taxis and private cars) from the Eastern Main Road, the projectwould immediatelyenable improvementof the bus services there. Without the proposed project, any improvementin bus services would have to await constructionof the Bus-PriorityRoute and the establishmentof a better transit authority, which could commence operationonly by about 1980. Commuter and commercial traffic using the Eastern Main Road would also benefit from the decongestion resulting in trafficdiversion to the project highway. The proposed project would employ up to 1,000 unskilledand skilledworkers during the construc- tion period of about three years, which would alleviate the high unemployment rate (para. 2.02).

5.07 In view of the faLctthat the seven-mileproject road is a very short section of the highways to either the east coast or the south (San Fernando), the initialbenefits will mainly accrue to operators (vehicleoperating cost and time savings) and to the passengers (time savings). No reduction in fares or transportrates is anticipated,but the project would delay the inevitable increasesin fares and rates which would result if congestionwere allowed to worsen.

(iii) Economic Return

5.08 The economic retulrnon the investmentfor the improvementof these critical sections in the DEst-West Corridor is 17%, consideringonly vehicle operating cost savingsand 25% if time savings (valuedat the full rate for business trips, and at 25% of the full rate for other trips) are included (Table 13). Sensitivityanialysis of the effect of a constructioncost in- crease of 35% over estimate, or a reductionof 25% of estimate of the benefits in the opening year, indicates that the economic return would remain acceptably high (at 19%, including time savings).

C. Rural Road StrengtheningProgram

5.09 The pavement sections to be strengthenedhave not yet been identi- fied. Typically, these would be national highways with moderate to high traffic. The common characteristicsof these roads are that they were not designed for the traffic they now carry; they have narrow roadways (14-18 - 22 - feet), generallypoor alignments and inadequate,or no, shoulders. On some of the worst sections, pavements have failed, reducing them to gravel or poorer standards,and their bases are expected to fail within a few years, which would necessitatetheir complete reconstruction. On the basis of most recent similar works, the estimatedcost of strengthening (asphaltoverlay) one mile of such road is about US$35,000 compared with an estimated future reconstruc- tion cost of about US$100,000 per mile. In view of the substantial saving in strengtheningrather than reconstruction,it is estimated that the economic return would be about 25%. With help from consultantsproviding technical assistanceto MOW, the Governmentwould define a pavement strengtheningpro- gram for the 60 miles included in the project, priority being given to those sections with fairly high economic rates of return.

D. Detailed Engineeringof Other High Priority Sections

5.10 No economic return has been calculated for the detailed engineering of other high-prioritysections included in the project and proposed for im- provrementin the future. However, the beneficial effect to the economy would be considerablebecause the detailed engineeringwould not only facilitate constructionof the Bus-PriorityRout:e, which would have very substantial economic and social benefits, but would also speed up implementationof other critical aspects of the Phase I Program, such as widening of the Princess Margaret Highway and constructionof the Mucurapo Foreshore Highway. Because of manpower constraints in MOW (para. 3.10), this agency does not have the capability to complete the detailed e-ngineeringof all the components of the program within a reasonable period. According to the Government'sinvestment program, the constructionof these improvementsshould commence in 1976 and be completed by 1981.

E. Technical Assistance

5.11 The technicalassistance to the MOW Highways Division is designed to assist the staff in implementingthe present project, provide on-the-job training for proper supervisionand improve its performance in complex civil works, as well as to ensure that MOW would develop capabilitiesin (a) data collectionand analysis, (b) highway planning, (c) design and supervisionof highway works, and (d) investmentprogramnmming (para. 4.12). The technical assistance to the domestic constructionindustry would be structured to expose local contractors to major civil works constructiontechniques, modern methods of bidding for civil works, proper cost estimatingand accountingmethods, and propiermanagement of work crews, equipment and the firms. This, in turn, should lead to better quality works, more competitivepricing than previously,and savings in foreign exchange as local contractors replace expatriatefirms (para 4.13). No economic return has been computed for these technicalassist- ance programs to MIOWand the domestic constructionindustry since the benefits are qualitativein nature and include improved performancein management,ad- ministration,planning, and supervisionof civil works. - 23 -

AGREEMENTSREACHED AND RECOMMENDATION

6.01 During negotiatio,ns,agreement was reachedwith the Government on the following:

(a) design standards to be adopted for the link between St. Joseph Road aLndPiccadilly Street (para. 4.04(a));_

(b) establishmentof an agency responsiblefor the formulation and implementationof a continuing trafficmanagement system (para. 4.08);

(c) selectionof the representativerural road sections in need of improvement(para. 4.12);

(d) details and schedule for procurementof the upgradingworks in the East-WestCorridor (para. 4.22);

(e) details and schedule for procurementfor the road strengthening element of the project and the basis for involvementof force account works (para. 4.23);

(f) arrangementsfor supervisionof civil works, including the arrangementsfor participationby MOW (para. 4.24);

(g) conditions and terms of reference for the consultantsto be engaged for detailed engineering(para. 4,26);

(h) conditionsand terms of reference for the consultantsto be retained for assistance to MOW (para. 4.27); and

(i) implementationschedule, the specific indicatorsto be used for monitoring the project and the arrangementsfor collecting information(para. 4.28).

6.02 During negotiations,assurances were obtained from the Government on the following:

(a) that the Governmentis committed in principle to implementing measures for relieving traffic congestion in the CBD of Port- of-Spain (paras. 2.15(f) and 4.08(a);

(b) that a timetable for the constructionand operation of the Bus- Priority Route wrouldbe furnished to the Bank by December 31, 1977 (para. 2.18);

(c) that the link between Piccadilly Street and St. Joseph Road would be built before completion of the St. Joseph Road widening (para. 4.04(a)); - 24 -

(d) that the institutionalmachinery necessary to implement the measures for relievingurban transportproblems would be operationalnot later than June 30, 1976 (para. 4.08(b));

(e) that the Government would consult with the Bank, not later than January 31, 1977, on a timetable for implementingsuch measures, taking into account the recommendationsof the agency to be established for formulating and implementing a continuing traffic management system ('para. 4.09); and

(f) that all foreign exchange costs not covered by the loan and all local costs would be met by the Government (para. 4.19).

6.03 The project provides a suitable basis for a Bank loan of US$7.0 mil- lion equivalent for a period of 15 years, including a four-year grace period.

March 10, 1976 TABE 1

TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO

SECONDHIGHWAY PROJECT

Total Road Mileage (1965-1974)

Nationail HighwaVs Total Total National All /2 Year Paved Roads Gravel Roads Earth Roads Highways Roads - 1965 1,252 109 63 1,424 4,173 1966 1,252 109 63 1,,424 4,178 1967 1,252 109 63 1,424 4,250 1968 1,258 109 63 1,430 4,255 1969 1,258 109 63 1,430 4,260 1970 1,734 /3 109 63 1,906 4,335 1971 16754 109 63 1,926 4,335 1972 1,754 109 63 1,926 4,55 1973 1,754 109 63 1,926 4,355 1974 1,754 109 63 1,926 4,355

/t Only those roads under the Ministry of Works.

/2 Includes roads and streels under the Ministry of Looal Government,

- Port-of-Spain City Council, Arima and San Fernando Boroughs,and the Ministry of Tobago Affairs. /3 The increase over previouls year is due to reclassification of main roads under other bodies to the Ministry of Works.

Source: Highways Division,1MOW

April 1975 TABLE 2

TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO

SECONDHIGHWAY PROJECT

RegisteredMotor Vehicles, 1964-1974 1/

Private Taxis Tractors Motor Years Cars & Rented Buses Trucks & Trailers Total Cycles

1964 42,803 8,464 345 11,658 3,349 66,619 2,163

1965 46,923 8,354 359 12,098 3,569 71,303 1,986

1966 5o,783 8,402 388 12,533 3,906 76,012 1,992

1967 54,492 8,375 462 12,759 4.153 80,241 2,119

1968 58,634 8,831 535 13,695 4,606 86,031 2,417

1969 59,561 8,938 574 13,377 4,536 86,986 2,647

1970 65,660 9,231 581 14,661 )4,995 95,128 3,130

1971 62,842 9,027 573 13,899 4,645 91,586 3,035

1972 69,651 8,795 581 14,956 4,466 98,449 3,251

1973 73,910 8,816 631 15,710 5,o19 104,086 3,288

1974 79,481 9,340 664 17,115 5,510 112,110 3,488

Average Growth Rate

1964-74 6.4% 1.0% 6.8% 3.9% 5.1% 5.3% 4.9%

% of Vehicles in 197l 71.0% 8.3% o.6% 15.1% 5.0% 100%

1/ Registered motor vehicles do not necessarily reflect the number of annually licensed vehicles since non-licensed vehicles are only withdrawn at irregular intervals from registration lists (last done in 1971).

Source: Ministry of Works

April 1975 TABLE 3

TRMNIDADAND TQ8.AOM

SESCONDHIGHWAY PROJECT

Vehicle ?uel Consumption 1970-197i (Millions of Impeial Gallons)

Gasoline Ye ar Premium Regular Diesoline Lub. Oil

1970 17.1 30.3 16.0 2.0

1971 21.7 29.8 17.4 4.7

1972 26.7 27.0 18.2 1.4

1973 31.6 24.7 17.8 1.7

1974 35.9 24.1 17.5 2.0

Average Annual Inczease 1970-1974 5% 2

Source: Ministry of Works

April 1975 TABLE 4

TRINIDAD ANDTOBAGO

SECCNDHIGHWAY PROJECT

Expenditures of National Highways 1964-1974 (i.e., only hose under MOWW) -

. TT$ X[Lillions)

Calendar/ 1/ Financing Fiscal Year Construction Maintenance Administration Total Foreign Local

1964 3.0 5.5 0.4 8.9 - 8.9

1965 3.9 5.3 0.4 9.6 - 9.6

1966 6.1 4.8 0.4 11.3 - 11.3

1967 3.7 4.9 0.5 10.1 1.2 8.9

1968 2.9 4.7 0.5 8.1 0.1 8.0

1969 8.2 5.2 0.5 13.9 3.8 10.1

1970 9.6 5.6 0.5 15.7 5.2 10.5

1971 12.8 6.o 0.5 19.3 11.2 8.1

1972 9.4 6.7 0.7 16.8 4.4 12.4

1973 5.9 8.7 0.7 15.3 5.0 10.3

1974 16.1 10.7 0.8 27.6 4.7 12.9

Projected (at 1975 constant prices)

1975 7.0 12.0 1.0 20.0 1.0 19.0

1976 15.0 12.0 1.2 28.2 3.0 25.2

1977 18.9 12.0 1.2 31.1 4.0 27.1

1978 16.1 10.0 1.2 27.3 1.0 26.3

1979 18.8 10.0 1.2 30.0 - 30.0

1980 15.0 10.0 1.2 26.2 - 26.2 t/ Head office administrative expenses only, as all field administrative expenses are charged to maintenance. Sources R.nistry of Wbrks April 1975 TABLE 5

TRINIDAD ANDTOBAGO

SECCNDHIGHWAY PROJECT

Road User Charges

(TT$ Millions)

1266 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 197h

FUELS (Tax)

Gasoline 5.86 6.29 9.12 9.58 10.00 11.14 11.58 15.60 8.60

Diesel 0.49 0.53 0.92 0.89 0.95 1.04 1.09 2.00 0.90

Lubricants - - 0.20 0.19 0.21 0.21 0.27 0.34 0.40

VEHICLES

Purchase Tax 3.85 3.92 3.97 5.05 6.25 8.04 12.30 13.80 9.50

Import Daty 0.78 1.04 0.54 1.36 2.40 2.49 3.57 2.10 2.00

Spare Parts Tax 0.26 0.27 0.27 1.07 1.26 1.49 2.10 0.70 1.80

Tyres Tax 0.22 0.19 0.12 0.50 0.53 0.72 0.38 0.23 o.46

LICENSE FEES

Vehicle Licenses 4.08 4.29 5.53 5.96 6.02 6.51 7.30 6.41 5.64

Drivers Licenses 0.52 0.55 1.12 1.14 1.21 1.27 1.30 - -

TOTAL 16.06 17.08 21.79 25.74 28.93 32.91 39.89 41.18 29.30

1/ Up to 9/30/74 only.

Source: East-West CorridorFeasibility Study, Phase I Report (Lea/TRINTOPLAN,Consultants) and NOW

April 1975 TRINIDADAND TOBAGO

SECCND HIGHWAY PROJECT

Comparison of ItoadUser Charges and Total tixpenditureon All xtOadb (i1iG A1t, Et al)

(TT$ Millions)

lative 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 Total

Total Expenditure 20.L0 16.72 16.95 2h.02 26.03 29.14 32.55 29.84 43.46 239.11

Road User Charges 16.06 17.08 21.79 25.74 28.93 32.91 39.89 41.18 29.30- 252.88

Road User Charges as % of Total Li Expenditure 79% 102% 129% 107% 111% 113% 123% 138% 67% 106%

1/ Road user charges only up to September 1974. Road user charges for the entire 1974 are expected to total TT$39 million, covering about 90% of total expenditure on roads.

Source: MOWand East-West Corridor Feasibility Study, Phase I Report

April 1975 TABIE 7

TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO

SECOND HIGHWAY PROJECT

Designs Standards for Project Roads

Churchill- Design Element Bus Priority Roosevelt Other 4-Lane Route Highway Highways

Design Speed (mph) 40 40 50

Minimum Stopping Sight Distance (feet) 275 275 350

Minimum Horizontal Radius (feet) 500 500 750

Maximum Grade (%) 5 6

Lane Width (feet) 12 11 11

ShoulderWidth: left (feeit) 8 8 8

right (feet) 0 0 4

Width of Right of-Way (rural only) (feet) 100 200 200

Design Loading of Bridges BS 153 Type HA and 27 units of HB

Sources: MOW and Lea/TRINTOPLAN

February 1976 TRINIDADAND TCIBALO TABLE 8

5EGONDHIGHWAY PROJECT

Goat Estimate Foreign Bank Exchange Partici- Miles NiT3llionB_ Uaislaitxl P Compwonent pation (4.-e) Io F=relgn -fotl wQ-l- ForeljmtTot^; % S

I. Civil Works (excluding land acquisition) 1/

(a) Improvements to road sections East-West Corridor: - Section I - Beetham Hwy. incl. interchanges and St. Joseph Road 4.9 18.00 18.00 36.oo 7.60 7.60 15.20 - Section II - Churchill- RooseveltHighway 1.5 2.25 2.25 4.50 o.95 0.95 1.90 - Section III - Churchill- RooseveltHighway 1.2 2.00 2.00 4-00 .85 o.85 1.70 Sub-Total 7 22.25 22.725 4- 9.40) -Y 1.088 50 4.10 22

(b) Improvementof about 60 miles of road by strengtheningand/or resurfacing 2.40 2.40 4.80 1.00 1.00 2.00 50 0.40 22 Sub-Total I 72.658 24.65 4 9-3°T104 T104.71 50 70 22

II. ConsultingServices:

(a) Detailed engineeringof Item I(a) (retroactivefinancing) 0.95 0.70 1.65 0.40 0.30 0-70 40 0.30 40 (b) Supervisionof civil works - Item I(a) 2.60 1.70 4.30 1.10 0.70 1.80 40 0.70 40 (c) Detailed engineeringof (i) Bus- PriorityRoute (12 miles); (ii) Mucurapo ForeshoreFreeway (2 miles); and (iii) PrincessMargaret Highway (8 miles). 2.15 1-40 3-55 0.90 0.60 1.50 40 0.60 40 Sub-TotalII -7h - - -TiiW 1.bO 1T:5 40 1.oO 0 III. TechnicalAssistance

(a) to MOW HighwaysDivision 0.,25 1.40 1.65 0.10 0.60 0.70 80 0.27 40 (b) to the domestic construction industry e.05 0.20 0.25 0.02 0.0o 0.10 80 0.03 40 Sub-Total III 0.30 7T:76 1-90 0.12 7.-M M0 o 0.30 40

IV. Contingencies

(a) Fhysical (5% of Item I) 1.20 1.20 2.40 0.50 0.50 1.00 50 0.20 20 (b) Frice/2 (7% of Items I, II, & III) 2.2 2.25 0 0.95 0.95 1.90 50 0.40 21 Sub-TotalIV 3 .- 445 6.9 1 5 1 50 0 .60 21

TOTAL PROJECT COST ALu a. n 1. . 50 70 25

1/ Total cost of land acquisitionestimated at US$0.5 mlllion.

2/ Price contingenciesare based on the followingyearly price increases (%):

t,ivil Works -CoaUl4a Services Iten I(a) Item I(b) Itexe 11(c) and III

1976 0 13 10 1977-79 5 12 8

The figures for Item I (a) are lower than normal, since the conditionsof contractfor constructionlimit price adjustmenl;to selectedmaterials, and then only after the first year of the contractperiod (para. 4.18).

SOURCE: IJW, Lea/TRINTOPLANand mission

February ].976 TABLE9

TRINIDA.DAND TABAGO

SECONDHIGHWAY PRDJECT Schedule of Disbursements

Cumulative Disbursements IBRDFiscal rear and at End of Quarter Quarter Ending (US$thousands) 1975/76

March 31, 1976 - June 30, 1976 500 1976/77 September 30, 1976 1,000 December 31, 1976 1,600 Karch 31, 1977 2,400 Tune 30, 1977 3,000 1977/78 September 30, 1977 3,400 December31, 1977 4,000 March 31, 1978 4,600 June 30, 1978 5,200

1978/79 September30, 1978 5,800 December30, 1978 6,300 March 31, 1979 6,800 June30, 1979 6,900 1979/80 September30, 1979 7,000 Assumptions Award of Contract March1976 Start of Construction May 1976 Completion of Construction October 1979

Source: Appraisal Mission February 1976 TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO SECOND HIGHWAY PROJECT

Traffic Composition on SelectediRads in theEast-West Corridor, 1974 3%)

Private Cars 2/ Taxis2/ Light Trucks Medium Trucks Heavy Trucks Buses Project Roads St. Joseph Road 55 30 8 5 2 0 Beetham Highway Flyover 57 28 9 5 1 0 Beetham Highway; 64 19 9 4 4 0 Churchill-Roosevelt Highway Beetham Highway - Aranguez Road 65 18 9 7 1 0 Princess Margaret - S.M. Road 65 15 11 8 3 0

Other East-West Corridor Roads South Quay Street 34 52 5 3 3 3 Lady foung - Beetham Highway 58 11 12 15 0 0 El Socorro Road - Aranguez Road 43 38 5I4 1 0 Southern Main Road at Curepe 59 17 17 5 1 1 Eastern Main Road! Champs Fleurs - So. Main Road 50 37 7 4 1 1 Lady Young - Aranguez 54 34 7 3 1 0 at Old St. Joseph Road 36 50 5 3 3 3

i/ traffic on the proposed project road from outside the East-West Corridor (i. e., from the east coast, Airport, ban Fernando, etc.) constitutes about 40% of the AADT. t But-8less than half of all trips by prifate car and tawd are -for eenmiutingpurposes.

Source: East-West Corridor Feasibility Study, Lea/TRINTOPLAN, Consultants

Septemoer 25, 1975 TABLE 11

TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO

SECONDHIGHWAY PROJECT

Traffic Forecast (PADT) on Projectand Related Roads

(in thousands)

Yearly Growth Actual Forecast after 1978

Route Section 1173 1974 1979 989 l994 %_ _

St. Joseph Road 16.1 16.5 35.9 4o.6 45.9 51.9 2.5

Eastern Main Road (Lady Young-Aranguez Roads) - 30.5 20.5 23.7 27.4 31.5

Market Interchange 10.7 10.8 33.6 36.8 40.2 44.O 1.8

BeethamHighway 36.1 36.9 54h.8 61.1 68.2 76.0 2.2

Churchill-RooseveltHwy. *(Beetham-Aranguez) 26.4 27.1 46.5 53.h 61.3 70.4 2.8

Churchill-Roosevelt(between Princess Margaret and SouthernMain Road) 21.8 22.6 31.1 39.3 48.o 58.7 4.1

1/ Opening year for improred road sections is assumed to be mid-1979. The forecast assumes that no further road improvementsin the East-West Corridor will take place. As the bus-priority route to Aronca is planned to be opened bj 1981., actual traffic thereafter will be less, due to diversion of some taxis, emergency services and most government vehicles from the project road. Source: East-West Corridor Feasibility Study, Phase I Report (Lea/TRINTOPLAN Consultants)

February 1976 TABLE12

TRINIDAD ANDTOBAGO

SECONDHIGHiWAY PROJECT

Vehicle Operating Economic Costs per Mile (TT$) (excluding time savings)

Existing RoadL Improved Road Peak/ Off-peak Peak Off-peak Speed Cost Speed Cost Speed Cost Speed Cost

Private Car 15 mph .49 25 mph .38 25 mph .38 35 mph .33

Taxi " 49 ti *33 " *33 " .25

Light Truck .66 t 43 "4 .43 .40

Medium Truck .89 .69 .69 .59

Heavy Truck " 1.03 .85 .85 .75

Bus " 2.30 " 1.68 " 1.68 1.h4

L/ Representspresent condition (1974) which is likely to deteriorate before proposed improvementis completed.

2/ Peak signifiesaverage congested conditionnow extending over about six hours a day and applicableto 44 % of traffic.

Source: East-West Corridor FeasibilityStudy, Phase I Report (Consultants) and mission

April 1975 TABLE 13

TRINIDADAND TOBAGO

SECONDHIGHWAY PROJECT

Economic RIeturn and Sensitivity Analysis

For the Upgrading Works in the East-West Corridor

Economic Assumption Return /

Best Estimate 25.0 (FYB = 27%) 2

Project costs overrunby: 15% 22.4 25% 21.0 35% 19.5 Benefits decrease by 15% 21.4 25% 19.0

Exclude time savings 17.0

Exclude time savings and decrease 10% 15.4 benefits by: 20% 12.8

2/ 20-year economic lif'e.

2 First Year Benefit.

SOURCE: Mission July 1975 ANNEX 1 Page 1

TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO

APPRAISALOF A SECOND HIGHWAY PROJECT

Draft Terms of Referencefor TechnicalAssistance to the Ministry of Works, Highways Division

I. Introduction

The Governmentof Trinidad and Tobago (the Government)has requested financing from the InternationalBank for Reconstructionand Development (the Bank) for technicalassistance to the Ministry of Works (MOW)Highways Division within the followingareas:

(a) highway planning and trafr.iccounting;

(b) informationsystems;

(c) contract administration,:Lncluding field s,upervisionof contractors;

(d) design/executionof rehabilitation,overlay and resealing to existing roads; and

(e) soils and materials testirLg,production of asphaltic concrete,other asphalticmixes and cement/limestabilization, pavement design, and monitoringof pavement test sections.

II.. Objective

The objectiveof the technicalassistance is to provide assistance to, and on-the-jobtraining of, MOW staff in all areas mentioned above, to ensure that, at the end of the consultants'assignment, the Highways Division will be fully capable to undertake,without further technicalassistance, works in all named disciplines.

III. Scope of Work

The consultantsshall endeavor, to the best of their ability, to assure that the objective of the assistance is met by carrying out, inter alia, the following:

Highway Planning and Traffic Countin&

(a) establishwith MOW an overall highway investmentprogram for the years 1977-1986based, inter alia, on the findings of highway studies already completed,as well as the ongoing CIDA-financedhighway evaluation,maintenance and organizationstudy; ANNEX 1 Page 2

(b) establishand inplementprocedures for MOW to collect traffic data on a permanent basis.

InformationSystems

(c) review present iLnformationsystems used in MOW Highways Division for recording and processing of data related to works on advanced planning, design and highway construction;recommend improvements to present systems and assist in implementationof agreed recommen- dations.

Design/Executionof Road Itehabilitation,Overlay and Resealing Works

(d) carry out, in collaborationwith MOW, a survey of pavement strength of representativeroad sections (min. 200 miles,of which about 25 miles should be in Tobago) in need of improvements,in conjunction with an axle loading survey;

(e) from the pavement survey, develop deflection criteria, sufficiency rating and/or other criteria for predicting unexpired pavement life before strengtheningis required;

(f) carry out a research of the polishing,undertraffic,of road surfacing aggregates found in Trinidad and Tobago and make recommendationsfor the use of aggregate in surface courses;

(g) develop a two-year program of road strengtheningand improvement consisting of pavement reconstruction,asphaltic overlays and double surface treatment resealing, constructionof which is to be started no later than six months after the beginning of the technical assistance;establish the economic rate of return of this program based on approximatecosts and benefits; select, within this program, a representativesubprogram of about 60 miles of roads (to be Bank- financed);

(h) assist MOW in identifyingancillary works required prior to paving; establish a program for ancillaryworks and assist MOW in implement- ing the program;

(i) for sections to be undertaken by contract, assist in preparing tender documents for the pavement reconstruction,asphaltic overlay and re- sealing works;

(j) for sections to be undertaken by contract,assist HOW in the procure- ment of above works, including prequalificationof contractors, review and evaluation of tenders, award of contracts,supervision and administrationof works; ANNEX 1 Page 3

(k) for works to be undertakernby Government direct labor (force account),assist in preparationof design, planning,execution and control of works.

Soils and MaterialsTesting, etc.

(1) assist local counterpartsand techniciansin all aspects of labora- tory and field soils/materialstesting; make recommendationsfor, and assist in, the developmentof the MOW Central Soils Laboratory by improvingquality and efficiencyof its works;

(m) train local counterpartsand techniciansin productionof asphaltic concrete and other asphalticmixes; make recommendationsfor, and assist in, the developmentof the MOWasphaltic plant operations; and

(n) develop design criteria for cement and lime stabilizationof local pavement materials; assist in preparationof design, planning,execu- tion and c6ntrol of the constructionof test sections, including cement/limetest sectionswhere consideredpracticable, and monitor- ing of the pavement performance.

IV. Timing and Reports

The consultantshall submit the followingreports:

(a) InceptionReport (10 copies to Government,5 copies to the Bank), within two months of starting date, stating briefly progress of work, major problems encounteredand detailed working program for the remainingservices of the consultants;

(b) QuarterlyProgress Reports (10 copies to the Government,5 copies to the Bank) the first report to cover the months 3, 4 and 5, stating briefly (i) progress during quarter and to date; (ii) dif- ficultiesencountered or expected; and (iii) recommendedchanges (if any) to the working program;

(c) Special Reports and Working Papers as required (numberof copies to the Governmentand the Bank to be agreed) in the special fields mentioned in Section I;

(d) Draft Final Report (10 copies to the Government,five copies to the Bank) 24 months after the starting date describingbriefly (i) the work performed; (ii) the progress made; (iii) areas in which progress has not been fully satisfactory;and (iv) recommendations,including recommendedfurther Governmentaction to a timetable;

(e) Final Report (15 copies to the Government,5 copies to the Bank) within one month of receiving the Government'sand the Bank's com- ments on the Draft Final Report. ANNEX 1 Page 4

V. Data, Local Services aindFacilities to be Provided by the Government

The Governmentwill provide the followingfacilities and services to the consultants:

(a) counterpartstaff, minimum three qualifiedengineers full time;

(b) clerical and janitorialservices;

(c) transportationwithin Trinidad and Tobago for official duties as required, including operationand servicingof vehicles;

(d) telephone,telegraph and postal services; and

(e) existing relevant documents and other informationas required for the services.

If any of the above facilities or services listed under (b), (c) and (d) should not be available, the consultantmay, with prior approval by MOW, acquire these facilitiesor services on a reimbursementbasis.

February 1976 Tentative Timetable

Technical Assistance to MDW

Schedule Years Man-Months Positions and Qualifications 1976 1977 1978 Consultants Government

Team Leader: Senior Civil Engineering (at least 10 years professional exnerience) with experience in highway planning _ 24 and administration,highway design, contract administration and nersonnel training.

Counterpart: Project Coordinator/Planner ------24

Planning Engineer: Senior Civil Engineer, at least 10 years professional experience in highway planning, economic eval- 21 uation, highway programming and traffic engineering.

Systems Analyst: ivil Engineer with experience in systems and propedurp..q. 10

Soils and iaterials Enrineer: Civil Fngineer with experience in laboratoryrand field testing, pavement and overlay design. 15

IIWCounterpart: Soils Engineer -24

Prject Engineer: Civil Engineer with exoerience in highway maintenance, asphalt paving and rehabilitation works, __ 22 contract administration.

>SW Counterpart: Assistant Project Engineer ------18

Senior Asnhalt Technician: Technician with extensive experience in asphalt and soils testing and production 6 of asohaltic concrete, surface bitumen.

Home-Office Support ----___ ------2

loG 66

Fehruar.71),/c TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO

SECOND HIGHWAY PROJECT

I M P L E M E N T A T I O N S C H E D U L E PROJECT DESCRIPTION 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979

CIVIL WORKS FOR:

- East-West Corridor Roads - Prequalification n - Bidding - Construction L_ _ - Supervision T

- 60 Miles of Rural Roads - Prequalification - Bidding

- Supervision _ _ - Conpervction-

TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE TO:

- Ministry of Works - Proposals - Highway Planning_ . - Information Systems - Design 200 miles _ - Contract Documents 60 mi.

- Domestic Construction Industry - Proposals - Review Datra etc. - Training, etc.

DETAILED ENGINEERING OF:

- Bus-Priority Route - Proposals - Design & Documents

- Mucurapo Foreshore - Proposals - Design & Documents

- Princess Margaret - Proposals - Design & Documents

- Bank Supervision Missions - Engineer WVV ? r Vt v v Vt - Economist V V ; r

SOURCE: Mission Febru;rv 1976 TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO

SECONDHIGhiWAY PROJECT

Project Indicators

East-WestCorridor Roads (TrafficVolume (AADr) in Thousands)

Eastern Main Road Market Beetham Churchill-Rooselt HighwaE St. Jose Year h Road (LadyYoun -Aranguez Intercaange Highwav Beetham-Aranguez P. MarRaret-Southern Forecast Measured Forecast Measured Forecast Measured Forecast Measured Forecast Measured Forecast Measured Completiondate

Vehicle - Car 2- 2033 15.0 19.1 35.1 30.3 20.9 - Taxi 11.1 9.3 9.5 10.64 7.0 24.7 - Bus 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 - Truck 5.5 3.1 5.1 9.3 89. 6.4 Completion date + 1 year

Vehicle - Car 21.3 15.3 19.5 35.9 31.1 21.7 - Taxi 11.6 9.5 9.6 10.6 7.2 14.9 -axi0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0U.4 0.0 - Truck 5.8 3.1 5.2 9.5 9.0 6.7 Completion date + 2 years

Vehicle- Car 22.3 15.6 19.8 VeCaxi e- 12.2 9.8 9.8 10.837.5 32.07.4 22.65.1 - BusTaxi Oo 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 - Truck 6.1 3.2 5.3 9.7 9.3 6.9 Completion date + 3 years

Vehicle - Car 23.14 15.9 20.2 37.5 32.9 23.5 - Taxi 12.7 9.9 9.9 11.1 7.6 5 .3 - Bus 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.14 0.0 - Truck 6.3 3.3 5.54 9.9 9.6 7.2 Completion date + 4 years Vehicle- Car24h3 16.2 20.5 38.2332 4 - Taxi 13.2 10.0 10.1 11.3 -Taxi 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.14 0.0 - Truck 6.5 3.14 5.5 j10.1 9.8 7.14

Y/ Scheduled for mid-1979. 2/ Private cars, pickups and jeeps. ANNEX3 Page 2

Beetham/Churchill Roosevelt Highways Between Market Interchange and Southern Main Road

Average Vehicle Operating Speeds

Forecast Measured

Year Peak /1 Off-Peak /2 Peak, Off-Peak

Completion date -3 years 15 mph 25 mph Completion date -2 year's "

Completiondate -1 year I f

Conpletion date /3 25 mph 35 mph

Completiondate +1 year 25 mph 35 mph

Completion date +2 years " ft

Completion date +3 years it Completion date +4 years " i

/1 Peak speed is the average of hourly speeds from 7:00 a.m. to 9:00 a.m., and 3:00 p.m. to 7:00 p.m. /2 Off-peakspeed is the aveirageof hourlyspeeds from 5:00 a.m. to 7:00 a.m., 9:00 a.m. to 3:00 p.m., End 7:00 p.m0 to 10:00p.m.

13 Completionis scheduledf'or mid-1979. ANNEX 3 Page 3

RoadworksProgram

Upgradingin East-Westand North-SouthCorridors (A-D)

Improvementand Strengtheningof Rural Roads (E)

.______I 1976 1977 1978 1979 -1980 1981 1982

Forecast A) Beetham/Churchill- RooseveltHighway Actual

B) BUEs-PriorityRoute Forecast Port-of-Spainto Arouca Actual

Forecast C) MucurapoForeshore Actual

Forecast D) PrincessMargaret Highway Actual

Forecast 130 rLi 150 mi 160 mi 160 mi 160 mi 160 mi 160 mi. E) Rural Roads Actual Domestic Construction Industry

Factors Relating to the General Status of the Industry (Excluding Petroleum Industry and Other Mainly Specialized Works)

I. Before Technical Assistance a II. After Technical Assistance A

Annual Data Requirement / 1 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982

1. Total capital expenditures on civil works -- public and private (TT$ million)

2. Work executedby Foreign Firms (TT$ million and % of Total)

3. Total value of construction equipmentfor civilworks in T&T (TT$million)

4. % owned by Government

5. % owned by DomesticFirms 6. Number of contractsbid/L# awarded/completedin T&T

7. % of (6) applicableto domestic firms

/1 All figures in monetary terms to be expressed in constant (i.e. comparable) TT$.

/2 Only contracts with value greater than TT$ half million (see footnote /1) to be considered.

13 The data for "I" would be compiled by the consultants providing technical assistance to the Domestic Construction Industry.

A Compare with extrapolation of "I".

February 1976

TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO SECOND HIGHWAY PROJECT Organizationof the Ministry of Works

MINISTER

Permanent secretary

Adm.Services Construction Highways BuildingCon- Drainage Temporary Division ivisionin Division struction Div. Division ::. .. . -

ChiefServ, Director Dir. Baildig 1 Director of j108/1HU Project unit Comptrol1er Officer of Highways Construction Drainage

_ _ | . ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~DirectLor-2

Chief Serv. Office of Director Off. Director Chieferv- Highways Officer ~~~~~~~~~~ofT.A. RoadsDrainage Engineering Depe Director T.A. Mechanical T.A. Soils(Lab.) Esquip.Work k, RecordsRoads and . Cii E Study Officer Project Bridges

Trasport e M a o ln Administrate

rIds P Tratinage .Schol Drainag. Divis"or Dinision Branch Branch Branch Braoch Branch Operat. Br. Plan. Br.

Itnterval |-q Finance 1 4Eqtuipmnent |Beadsctio| SurveyorsCon- Audit AdminiBr.ratioc

Personnel& anagemeElectrical Establish- Services Branch ment

I 1rwv I Rod I SIr nPlaning Survevons Construction a vyrs I | Section || Section | |Section Inspectors 11 Office | eton

| Daries sRencdtCvn° | | sRouacdtsOCnon- || RoadsSurf.n-

ZunT|MPOART Maint.iNeoth) || Maint.(South) | | -n 0241 :1TEMPORARYUNIT Wo.rldB-1, -15241

TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO SECOND HIGHWAY PROJECT Organizationof HigiwaysDivision (MOW)

DIFECTRO FHIGHWAYS

ISOILSLABORATOY OFFICEOF DIRECTOR ScientificFt1c~.I)TAsst. I1M1)I. ExectivewE Ant. lU12 (I) I " ))12)I'..-..-.-...--.-.---Civil Enuinevr1112) I.Lb. AsstI(II ClericalEngineeringStaff Ant'. 11()1 SecretarialStaff

: HIGHWAYSPROJECT, BRIDGES RAOS CONSTRUCTION ROADSPLANNING 4TEMPORARY)UNIIT. ,i _~E ].. BRN R'ANCR CHlEF PN NIRDOESBRA ENGINEER NCHII E NTNGINEER CHIEFPLANNING ENGINEER

r -CivEgmer11M PLANNINGSECTION CONSTRUCTIONSECTION| Cil Engineer11 (2) EngineeringAsst. I 1) Cii ngneCivil EngineerC1EI (1) CivilEngineer 1; 1) CiviliV EngineerI1) gne ClerkTypist I (1) CivilEngineer I (1) BridgeSup t f)IIngerI(2)

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