R EP RN DESO RESTRICTED REPORTS DES§Cl Report No. TO-570a WITHIN ONE WEEK'2 Public Disclosure Authorized This report was prepared for use within the Bank and its affiliated organizations. They do not accept responsibility for its accuracy or completeness. The report may not be published nor may it be quoted as representing their views.

INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION Public Disclosure Authorized

APPRAISAL OF A HIGHWAY PROJECT

TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO Public Disclosure Authorized

May 18, 1967 Public Disclosure Authorized

Projects Department CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS

Unit of Currency in use: and Tobago Dollar (TT$)

TT$ 1.71429 = US$ 1.00 TT$ 1.00 = US$ 0.58 TT$ 1,000,000 = Us$ 583,333 FISCAL YEAR

January 1 to December 31

WEIGHTS AND MEASURES: BRITISH

Conversion British/US: Metric

1 mile = 1.6 kilometers 1 foot = 30.5 centimeters 1 acre = 0.41 hectares 1 imperial gallon = 1.20 U.S. gallon = 4.54 liten 1 ton = 1.12 U.S. short ton = 1.02 metric ton

APPRAISAL OF A HIGHlJAY PROJR.CT

TABLE OF CONTENTS Page

1. INTRODUCTION

2 * BACKGROUNMD

A. General B. Transportation C. National Transportation Study

3. HIGHWAAY SECTOR 3

A. Highway Administration B. Highway Network and Growth of Vehicle Fleet C. Traffic Volumes and Traffic Counts D. Highway Financing and User Charges E. Highway Transport Industry

4. THE PROJECT 7

A. Description B. The Project Highway (Southern Highwray) C. Consulting Services (i) For the Project Highway (ii) For Feasibility Studies and Detailed Engineering D. Cost Estimates and Foreign Component E. Project Execution and Financing

5. ECON,OMIC JUSTIFICATION 12 A. General B. Vehicle Operating Costs C. Time Savings D. Reduction in Road Accidents 6. CONTCLUSIONS ANTD RECOSENDATIONS 14

TABIES: 1. Road Mileage 2. Registered NTumber of Motor Vehicles 3. Estimated User Revenues and Highway Expenditures 4. Design Standards 5. Scope of Highwiay Project

This report was written by Messrs. Kaden and Parthasarathi on the basis of their findings during missions to Trinidad and Tobago in May 1965, April 1966 and April 1967. TABLE OF CONTENTS (page 2)

CHART

Organization Chart - Ministry of Works

ANTEX

MAPS

1. Highway Network in Trinidad - IBRD 1888 Rl 2. Highway Project - IERD 2055 TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO

APPRAISAL OF A HIGIVAY PROJECT

SUMMARY i. The Government of Trinidad and Tobago has requested the Bank's assistance in financing a highway project for improving various sections of hig' ways comprising the route between Port-of-Spain and San Fernando and consistir of: (a) the construction of a 4-lane expressway about 17 miles long from to San Fernando, includ- ing all consulting services related thereto, and

(b) consulting services for (i) feasibility studies for several sections of the route between Port-of-Spain and the Southern Highway at Chaguanas and for the extension of the Southern Highway for about 3 miles south of the northern access to San Fernando; and (ii) the detailed engineering of the highway sections to be studied under (i) above, subject to confirmation of the technical and economic justification from the feasibility studies. ii. The total cost of the project is about US$ 19.7 million equivalent, and a loan of US$ 8.6 million is proposed to cover the presently estimated foreign exchange costs of consulting services from January 1, 1966, and of construction costs from January 1, 1967. This would be the first Bank Loan to Trinidad and Tobago for highways. The executing agency would be the Ministry of Works through its Highways Division. iii. The number of motor vehicles in Trinidad and Tobago has almost tripled between 1955 and 1966, representing a growth rate of about 10 percent per annum. In view of the small size of the country and the rolling terrain, highways will increasingly provide the major means of transporting both passen- gers and goods. The from Chaguanas to San Fernando consti- tutes an important part of the north-south route connecting the two most popu- lated and economically important areas in the country - Port-of-Spain and San Fernando and environs - but is inadequate to handle even present traffic. In view of the difficulties involved in widening and improving the present road which goes through several urban areas and has many narrow curves and sharp turns, the Government has decided to construct a new highway on a new alignment with improved design features. iv. The road works included in the project are technically sound and economically justified in terms of reductions in vehicle operating costs which yield a return of about 11 percent. In addition, the project will result in savings in travel time, reduce road accidents and help in the agricultural and industrial development of the areas bordering the highway. v. Construction contracts for the proposed road works will be awarded on the basis of international competitive bidding. Construction is expected to be completed in about 4 years., by mid-1971. vi. The project is suitable for a Bank loan of US$ 8.6 million equivalent; an appropriate term would be 25 years including a 4h-year period of grace. TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO

APPRAISAL OF A HIGMEIJY PROJECT

1. INTRODUCTION

1.1 The Government of Trinidad and Tobago has requested the Bank's assistance in financing a part of its highway program. The proposed project is the next step in the Government's plans to improve the route between Port-of-Spain, the capital, and San Fernando, the second largest city. It includes the construction of 17 miles of a 4-lane expressway and the services of consulting engineers in connection therewith and for further engineering and economic studies for improving related parts of the highway system. The total cost of the project is about US$ 19.7 million equivalent, and a loan of US$ 8.6 million equivalent is proposed to cover the presently estimated foreign exchange cost of consulting services from January 1, 1966, and of construction costs from January 1, 1967.

1.2 This will be the first Bank loan to Trinidad and Tobago for highways. The agency responsible for the execution of the project would be the Ministry of WTorks through its Highways Division.

1.3 The project has been prepared by the Government, assisted by the consulting firm, Brown Engineers of Trinidad Ltd., a subsidiary of the US firm Brown Engineers, New York.

1.4 This appraisal report is based on the findings of Bank missions which visited Trinidad in May 1965, April 1966 and April 1967 and on studies prepared by the Government and its consultants. This report was prepared by M4essrs. Kaden and Parthasarathi, members of the Bank missions.

2. BACKGROUND

A. General

2.1 Trinidad and Tobago is located just off the coast of Venezuela. The island of Trinidad, with an area of 1,86h square miles (about the size of Luxembourg), is separated from the mainland by less than 10 miles. Tobago lies 20 miles to the northeast of Trinidad and is 116 square miles in area. The country became an independent member of the British Commonwealth in August 1962.

2.2 The population of Trinidad and Tobago is just under 1 million, of which 35,000 live in Tobago. Some 250,000 people live in the capital city of Port-of-Spain, and another 50,000 in San Fernando, the next largest city. Port-of-Spain is the seat of Government and the center for administrative, commercial, banking and import-export activities.

2.3 In the last ten years, the population grew 2.9 percent a year and it is expected to grow at about the same rate in the next few years. Gross domestic product at market prices (in 1960 values) is estimated to have -2- increased from TT$ 655 million (US$ 380 million) in 1956 to TT$ 1,270 million (US$ 740 million) in 1966, or a rise of about 6.5 percent a year. During this period per capita income rose 3.5 percent a year, to about TT$ 900 (US$ 525) in 1966.

2.4 The relatively high per capita income is based mainly on petroleum, which constitutes the most important sector of the economy of Trinidad and Tobago (accounting for 28 percent of the GDP and employing 5 percent of the labor force) followed by agriculture (10 percent of GDP and 21 percent of labor force), sugarcane being by far the most important crop. In 1964, the Governmei. launched a Second Five-Year Plan (1964-68), involving a total outlay of about TT$ 300 million (US$ 175 million), which would broaden the economic base and strengthen sectors other than petroleum.

B. Transportation

2.5 Road transport has been the principal mode of transportation in Trinidad for many years. This has become even more so since the termination in September 1965 of railway services between Port-of-Spain and the south of the island of Trinidad. In terms of traffic volume, coastal shipping is insignificant, except for inter-island traffic.

2.6 A steady decline in freight traffic and revenues, and increasing cx- penditures and operating losses, resulted in the abandonment in 1965 of the railway between the capital and San Fernando, uhich served the oilfields and th sugar belt in the center of the island. It was based on the advice of a Swiss transport consultant who recommended the gradual replacement of the railway by road transport. Railway service between Port-of-Spain and in the east, a distance of 14 miles, has been continued for the movement of about 8,000 passengers daily or some 2.5 million persons a year in each direction. The National Transportation Study (discussed below) will recommend a coordinated program for improving the road system and road transport and abandoning all raij services.

2.7 aTo of the larger sugar companies have their own railway lines to mo-,'c part of their sugarcane to the factories. In addition, since September 1965, they are being permitted to use the government railway lines to transport part of their sugarcane. Ultimately road transport is expected to replace rail movement for hauling the entire sugarcane crop.

2.8 Except for a few main arteries in the north, the roads are mostly winding and narrow, serving local needs fairly satisfactorily but inadequately through traffic. There were altogether about 4,200 miles of highways in 1966, of which about 2,500 miles were paved roads. Passenger bus transport is now run by the Government-owned Public Transport Service Corporation which was set up in June 1965.

2.9 Inter-island air services (between Trinidad and Tobago) are operated by the British West Indian Airways, in which the Government has a majority interest. Ferry services to Tobago are operated by the Port Authority. -3-

C. National Transportation Study

2.10 The Canadian consulting firm C. C. Parker and Parsons, Brinckerhoff, Ltd., was requested by the Government of Trinidad and Tobago in February 1966 to carry out a national transportation study for the two islands. The cost of this study is being financed by a soft loan from the Canadian Government. The study is expected to be completed by August 1967.

2.11 The scope of the study covers all transportation modes and includes a comprehensive survey of existing facilities. The consultants have concluded that the most important facet of the transportation problem is the improvemnent of the national highwray system, and are proceeding on this basis.

2.12 The major objective of the study will be the preparation of a com- prehensive road improvement program for a twenty-year period, including more detailed programs for the last two years of the current Five-Year Plan (1964-68 and for the subsequent five-year period, based on economic criteria. The interim findings of the consultants confirm that the project proposed for Bank financing has a very high priority in Trinidad's transportation program.

2.13 The Bank is in general agreement with the terms of reference for the study, which should produce valuable information and might result in further projects suitable for future Bank lending.

3. HIGHWAY SECTOR

A. Highwayr Administration

3.1 The Highways Division of the Ministry of lWorks (see Chart) is re- sponsible for about 1,300 miles of highways which are under the jurisdiction of the Central Government. This division is headed by a Director and has three branches - Planning, Construction and M4aintenance, and Bridges; each branch is under the direction of a Chief Engineer. The Division also employs foreign and/or local technical Advisors on soils and materials and on drainage matters.

3.2 The Planning Branch is responsible for the planning and design of roads and for the supervision of their construction when carried out on a contract basis. The Construction and Maintenance Branch is responsible for general road maintenance including pavement markings and signs, the operation of quarries and the central asphalt mixing plant, and road improvements which are carried out by departmental labor forces. For the operations of this branch, the island of Trinidad is divided into eight administrative districts. Finall-, the Bridges Branch is responsible for the design, construction, and maintenance of bridges and designated culverts.

3.3 The Highways Division functions satisfactorily, and highway mainten- ance is adequate. The Division employs consultants for undertaking design and supervision of construction of major projects for which it does not have enough staff. 3.4 The City Council of Port-of-Spain and the Borough Councils of San Fernando and Arima are responsible for all roads within the city or borough limits, with the exception of those roads wihich are under the jurisdiction of the Highways Division and which terminate within the town limits. The rest of the system is administered by the County Councils with the exception of roads in Tobago and some private roads. The main roads in Tobago are under the juris- diction of the Ministry of Tobago Affairs and the remainder are administered by the Tobago County Council.

3.5 The function of traffic management is the responsibility of the Transport Division of the Ministry of Works under the direction of the Trans- port Commissioner. This includes the development of traffic control measures and the licensing of motor vehicles and drivers.

B. Highway Network and Growth of Vehicle Fleet

3.6 At the end of 1966, the highway network in Trinidad (Map 1) totalle about 4,200 miles or 6,700 kIm, fairly adequate for a country of this size. _ As can be seen from Table 1, the total mileage of roads has not growrn significantly in the last 10 years, although its characteristics as reflected in the proportion of paved roads have been slowly improving. In 1955, less than 50 percent of the roads were paved; by the end of 1966, this proportion had risen to 60 percent.

3.7 The most important highways in the network lie on the west-east route from Port-of-Spain to Arima, the third largest town on the island, and the route to San Fernando in the south which branches off from the west-east route (N5ap 2). The major west-east highways are and Churchill- Roosevelt Highway, with access to Port-of-Spain being provided by Eastern Mlain Road and Lady Young Road also. The major highways to the south are the Princess Margaret Highway and the Southern Main Road up to Chaguanas and only the latter beyond Chaguanas.

V~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

All-weather roads km per 1,000 km per 1,000 square km inhabitants

For comparison:

Madagascar 21 2.0 Martinique 800 6.6 Trinidad 1,h00 6.7 France 1,100 14.2 -5-

3.8 The past decade has witnessed a rapid growth in the number of motor vehicles operating in the country, recording a tripling in numbers between 1955 and 1966 (Table 2). The number of passenger cars and taxis grew 10.5 perce, a year, slightly faster than the number of trucks and buses which grew 8.5 percent a year, while the total vehicle fleet increased 10 percent a year. During this period gross domestic product has been rising 7 percent and per capita income 4 percent a year. The total number of motor vehicles reached about 76,000 in 1966, of which about 78 percent were cars and taxis and 22 percent trucks and buses. The vehicle density is one vehicle for every 13 persons in the country; this is a very high figure for a country in Trinidad's stage of development, and is somewhat similar to the vehicle density of Italy.

C. Traffic Volumes and Traffic Counts

3.9 Since 1955 random traffic counts were made on one or two days in each year on the Southern Main Road, indicating a traffic growth of about 11 percent a year on that particular road. Systematic counts were begun only in 1965 in connection with the proposed project, when daily counts were made manually at several points on the route between Port-of-Spain and San Fernando during one week in June and one week in August. These counts showed that traffic volumes on the major east-west and north-south highways (see para 3.7) ranged from 10,000 - 20,000 vehicles a day on the Southern Main Road south of Chaguanas to 25,000 - 30,000 vehicles a day on the Churchill-Roosevelt Highway. The data are considered typical of traffic flows throughout the year. More exhaustive counts with mechanical counting equipment and origin-destination studies are expected to be made as part of the Yational Transportation Study. The equipment will be left behind at the conclusion of the Study so that traffic counts can continue to be made on a systematic basis.

3.10 The Government has agreed to make arrangements for collecting, recording, and evaluating, on a continuing basis, data relating to traffic on the main road system and in particular on the Southern Main Road and the Southern Highway, including average daily traffic volumes by type of vehicle, vehicle operating costs and volumes of freight and passenger traffic. Such arrangements are to be initiated within six months of receipt of the National Transportation Study on the basis of the Study's findings.

D. Highway Financing and User Charges

3.11 During the past few years, the Government has been gradually in- creasing the amounts spent on highways, both for maintenance and for new construction and improvement. Appropriations come out of the general budget of the Government, and there is no earmarking of the proceeds of specific taxes for financing highways. However, it is of interest to note that receipts from fuel taxes, import duties, purchases taxes and license fees paid by road users more than covered the highway expenditures (Table 3). In view of the fact that railway services are expected to be phased out (see para 2.6), there are no significant problems of transport coordination. -6-

E. Highway Transport Industry

3.12 The Public Transport Service Act was passed in 1965, setting up a semi-autonomous public corporation to operate bus and rail services in the country and thus establishing coordination in operational matters between road and rail passenger services. The Corporation had a five-year program to retire all outdated buses and expand its bus fleet from 264 at the end of 1965, with an average seating capacity of 34 to a bus, to 400 buses with a larger average seating capacity.

3.13 In addition to buses, taxis are a major mode of passenger transpor- tation in Trinidad, especially taxis operating on specific routes charging a flat rate per passenger. In 1966, there were about 8,000 taxis.

3.14 Movement of goods within the country is almost exclusively by trucks and pick-ups, the majority of them operated by owner-drivers. There is no Government regulation of trucking rates or of entry into the trucking business, except for the licensing fee.

4. THE PROJECT

A. Description

4.1 As mentioned in paragraph 3.7 the existing route between Port-of-Spain and San Fernando covers the following highways (see Map 2): Beetham IHighway (with Lady Young Road and as alternatives); Churchill-Roosevelt Highway; Princess MIargaret Highway; and the Southern Main Road. The Government of Trinidad and Tobago plans to construct or improve the route in stages appropriate to traffic requirements, and the proposed project marks the first stage. The project consists of:

(a) the construction of a 4-lane expressway (Southern Highway), 17 miles long from Chaguanas to San Fernando, including the half-mile-long connection to San Fernando, and all consulting services relating thereto; and -7-

(b) consulting services for (i) feasibility studies for several sections of the route between Port-of-Spain and the Southern Highway at Chaguanas and for the extension of the Southern Highway for about 3 miles south of the northern access to San Fernando, and (ii) the detailed engineering of the highway sections in (i) above, subject to confirmation of the technical and economic justification from the feasibility studies.

4.2 The status of project preparation is indicated in Table 5. The de- tailed engineering is complete and all bidding documents for the length of highway included for construction in this project are under preparation. The preliminary engineering is 95 'percent complete for those highway sections whic are included in the project for feasibility studies and possible detailed engineering.

B. The Project Highway (Southern Highway)

4.3 The existing Southern Main Road (Chaguanas to San Fernando via ), is a two-lane paved road varying in width from about 18 feet to 22 feet. Despite the growth of traffic, this road has experienced few changes from its original condition, At present it has a tortuous align- ment with frequent sharp curves. Unlimited access to the road, and pedes- trian traffic in the numerous communities it traverses, hinder the continuous flow of motorized traffic. All intersections and crossings, of which there are many, are at grade. The number of satisfactory passing zones is small. There are no shoulders for almost its entire length. The road provides a low level of traffic service and its capacity is exceeded for several hours every working day; volume counts made at various locations on the road in August 1965 indicated well over 1,000 vehicles an hour during the peak hours and 10,000 - 20,000 vehicles a day,

4.4 The existing San Fernando Bypass Road is in effect a continuation of the Southern Main Road in the vicinity of San Fernando. The Southern Main Road continues into San Fernando proper while the Bypass Road was constructed to circle San Fernando and re-connect with the Southern Main Road south of San Fernando. Since construction of the Bypass, in the late 1950's, the development of San Fernando has extended to and beyond it. The Bypass is a paved, 24-foot-wide road which carries about 8C0 vehicles an hour for several hours during the working day and has several at-grade street intersections.

4.5 Izi view of the poor alignment of the Southern Main Road and the difficulties in acquiring the right-of-way on this already heavily urbanized route, a new expressway (the Southern Highway) is being planned for construction to the east and is the subject of the proposed loan. The alignment has been chosen after taking into consideration regional plan- ning requirements, topography and soil conditions. The length of the expressway is 16.6 miles and the connecting road between the San Fernando Bypass Road and the expressway interchange is 0.6 miles long. ThO new -8- route will be about 2.7 miles shorter than the existing route via the Southern Main Road. The northern half of the Southern Highway is located in flat land and the southern half in rolling terrain. As far as the geological factors are concerned, no unusual circumstances or difficulties are foreseen.

4.6 The full control of access, the grade-separated interchanges and the paved shoulders will allow a continuous flow of traffic. A study of future traffic indicates that it is economical to build four lanes under this project, rather than only two lanes now with phased construction of the additional two lanes later. Even with conservative assumptions of traffic growth, the volume would amount to about 20,000 vehicles a day five years after the completion of the new expressway.

4.7 The general design standards for expressways in Trinidad are indicated in Table 4 and are satisfactory. They were used for the Southern Highway, the detailed engineering for which has been completed. The Consultants now employed on the National Transportation Study agree with the basic design standards employed.

4.8 As indicated in Table 5, the construction of the Southern Highway has been divided into four sections. A contract has already been award- ed for 2.7 miles, including a 1.4-mile section (called the "Government Section') on which the Government had undertaken some construction work on a more- or-less experimental basis, without providing any interconnections to the existing highway system. Earthwork for 4 lanes and pavement for 2 lanes had been completed on the 10 4-mile section without the provision of major drainage facilities or structures. The work was started in 1964 and completed in 1965, and cost about TT$ 1.0 million. Contracts were awarded on the basis of local competitive bidding.

4.9 Subsequently, as part of the engineering studies for the Southern Highway, the Government asked the consultants to undertake detailed engineering of the 2.7-mile section as a 4-lane expressway; which included completion of the 1.4-mile Government section. Bidding on these works was open to international competition. The construction contract was awarded in December 1965 toa large local construction fm, which is qualified for this type and size of work. The work is expected to be completed in June 1967, with design and supervision of construction by Bank- approved consultants. The contract amounts to TT$ 2.8 million (US$ 1.6 million) of which expenditures of about TT$ 0.6 million (US$ 0.35 million) will be occurring in 1967.

4.10 The balance of the construction work, estimated to cost about TT$ 21 million (US$ 12 million) till. be divided into four contracts as follows in order to permit both local and foreign contractors to compete: The construction of the expressway, including the paving of only one 2-lane carriagefay, would be opened to bid in three contracts and bidding would be permitted either for each individual contract or any combination thereof. WXith this arrangement the expressway could be open to 2-lane traffic somne 21-, years after commencement of constructioni work. The fourth contract com- prises the paving of the second 2-lane carriageway and will be advertised shortly before completion of the other contracts, thus providing for 4-lane operation after about one year. The contracts are suitable for inter- national competitive bidding; invitations will be sent to prequalified contrac- tors in accordance with the Bank's procedures. The cost estimate -9- of the construction work is based on the experience gained on the recently constructed expressway section at Chaguanas and other recent works executed by contract, and is considered to be satisfactory.

C. Consulting Services

(i) For the Project Highway

4.11 The Government was assisted by Brown Engineers of Trinidad Ltd. in the preparation of this part of the project. The contract for preliminary and detailed engineering of the Southern Highway was signed in April 1965, and the preparation of bidding documents is now nearing completion. The consultants were asked by the Government at the Banes suggestion to undertake traffic surveys over the whole route, Port-of-Spain to San Fernando, in June and August 1965 and the work was completed in October 1965. The Governmient intends to request the same consultants to supervise the construction work. They are acceptable to the Bank.

(ii) For Feasibility Studies and Detailed Engineering

4.12 Feasibility studies and detailed engineering for other highway sections of the route between Port-of-Spain and San Fernando and beyond (in north to south sequence) are included as part of the project as follows (see Table 5):

(a) reconstruction of Beetham Highway;

(b) construction of an interchange at points of con- vergence of Churchill-Roosevelt Highway, Eastern Main Road and Lady Young Road;

(c) expansion of Churchill-Roosevelt Highway between Beetham Highway and Princess Margaret Highway;

(d) expansion of Princess Margaret Highway; and

(e) extension of the Southern Highway beyond the northern access to San Fernando by about three miles to the San Fernando-Siparia-Erin Road, a southern connection to San Fernando, and the construction of connections from the main roads from the south to such extensione

The preliminary engineering of the sections of the route between Port-of-Spain and Chaguanas was begun by the above consultants in June 1965 and has been completed. Some detailed engineering has been commenced for the Churchill- Roosevelt Highway and the southern extension of the Southern Highway on the basis of acceptable preliminary engineering; the technical and economic Justification for improvement of these sections is apparent. -10-

h.13 Arrangements for these engineering services have been confirmed during loan negotiations and assurances obtained that further detailed engineer- ing will be undertaken only after confirmation of the technical and economic justification from the feasibility studies. The existing condition of the various road sections and the future steps required are described in the Annex. Construction of most of the road sections should be undertaken shortly after the detailed engineering has been completed and further external financing may be required for this purpose.

D. Cost Estimates and Foreign Component

4.14 Cost estimates for construction works included in the project are based on the unit prices of the contract already under execution (para 4.9), and on detailed engineering recently completed by the consultants for the balance. The costs for engineering services and studies are based on contracts already awarded or estimates prepared by the consultants.

4.15 All cost estimates were confirmed by the Government and reviewed by the Bank staff. The estimates given in para 4.18 below include for financing under the Bank loan about US$ 0.43 million for the foreign exchange component of expenditures totalling about US$ 0.66 million equivalent incurred or to be incurred from January 1966 through June 1967 under contracts for engineering services entered into between the Government and its consultants since April 1965 as described in para 4.11. Retroactive financing of this amount is proposed because the items of work performed constitute an essential part of the project and were undertaken at the Bank's request to meet its requirements. On the construction side (including the consultants' supervision) financing from the proposed Bank loan of about US$ 0.2 million to cover the foreign exchange cost of expenditures totalling about US$ 0.4 million equivalent incurred or to be incurred from January 1, to June 30, 1967, is included. This retroactive financing is proposed because of the delay that occurred in completing the negotiations held in 1966, pending clarification of the Government's fiscal policy and of the prospects of assuring local financing for the project. The total cost of the project comprises all construction wiork on the Southern Highway which commenced with the "Government Section" (para 4.8) in 1964.

4.16 A 10 percent contingency allowance has been provided for possible increases in estimated physical quantities during construction and for unforeseen requirements of engineering work. A price escalation contingency of 8 percent is deemed adequate over the expected four-year duration of the construction work of the project, considering the stability of living and construction costs in Trinidad and Tobago over the past few years.

4.17 The foreign currency component of the highway construction cost has been estimated by the Bank mission at 50 percent on the basis of discussions in Trinidad with Government officials and the consultants and an analysis sub- sequently submitted by the Government. The foreign currency component of engineering services is estimated by the consultants at 65 percent on the basis of past experience of such work in the country and appears reasonable. 4.18 Estimates of the total project cost, including early Government expenditure of US$ 2.65 million equivalent on the project for which Bank finan- cing is not being provided and of the foreign currency component are given below: Total Cost Foreign Cost TT$ US$ US$ m i 1 io n A. Expenditure being financed in part by Bank loan

i. Highway Construction 21,40 12.40 6,20 ii, Consulting Engineering Services 3.05 1.80 1.15 (a) Supervision of Construction (1.40) (b)Feasibility Studies and Detailed Ehgineering (1,65) iii. Contingencies: 18% of (i) and 10% of (ii) 4.15 2.40 1.25 iv. Right-of-Way 0.85 0.50 - v. Subtotal 29,45 17.10 8.60 B. Past expenditure financed entirely by Government

i. Highway Construction (prior 1/67) 3.45 2.00 1.00 ii. Consulting Engineering 3ervices 0o80 0145 0.30 (a) Supervision of Construc- tion (prior 1/67) - (0.10) (b) Feasibility Studies and Detailed Engineering (prior 1/66) (0.70) iii. Contingencies - - iv, Right-of -Way 0.30 0,15 v. Subtotal -, 5 2.60 1.30 C. Totals of above

i. Highway Construction 24.85 14.40 7.20 ii. Consulting Engineering Services 3.85 2.25 1.45 (a) Supervision of Construction (1,50) (b)Feasibility Studies and Detailed Engineering (2.35) iii. Contingencies 4.15 2.40 1.25 iv. Right-of-Way 115 o.65 - v. Grand Total 34.00 19.70 9.90

Table 5 contains details of the cost estimates of highway construction and of engineering services. -12-

E. Project Execution and Financing

4.19 The construction of the Southern Highway is scheduled for completion in four years, including six months for international competitive bidding and award of contracts. A contract was awarded in December 1965 (para 4.9) and preparation of bidding documents for the remainder is being completed. The feasibility studies and engineering work included in the project can be finished well within the same time period. The Government intends to award most of the remaining consulting services to the consultants who assisted in preparing the project, and the Bank concurs with this arrangement. The annual scheduling of expenditures is expected to be as follows:

US $ million equivalent Before 1967 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 Total

Estimated loan disbursements - 0.8 2.1 2.6 2.5 o.6 8,6 Estimated Goverrment expenditure 2.9 0.4 2.2 2.6 2.4 0.6 11.1

Total- 2.9 1.2 4.3 5.2 4.9 102 19.7

4.20 Disbursements from the proposed loan for consultants' services and construction contracts will be based on percentages related to the presently estimated foreign exchange ccmponents (para 4.17). In case of an increase in the project cost these percentages may be reduced to spread disbursementv over the entire period of execution of the project. Any balance of the loan remaining undisbursed after completion of the project should be cancelled.

4.21 The Southern Highway is already included in the Second Five-Year Plan of Trinidad and Tobago (1964-68). Assurances have been obtained from the Government that adequate funds will be provided in its annual budgets to meet the local currency component of project costs.

4.22 The acquisition of right-of-way is not expected to present any problems. Most of the land required for the proposed Southern Highway is already Government-owned, and a start has already been made on the acqui- sition of the rest of the required land. Arrangements have also been made for the relocation of utilities with the companies or public authorities involved as the case may be. Assurances have been obtained during loan negotiations that contractors will have timely access to the work sites and that utilities will be relocated according to a time-table satisfactory to the Bank.

5. ECONOMIC JUSTIFICATION

A. General

5.1 The rapid growth of Trinidad and Tobago's economy and vehicle fleet between 1955 and 1966 has already been described in paragraphs 2.3 and 3.8 The Government's Development Plan (1964-68) assumes an average annual growth -13-

df 5 percent in the gross domestic product, against an average growth of 7 percent a year in the past ten years. In view of this and of the slowdown in vehicle growth in the past 2-3 years, the growth of the vehicle fleet is expected to be 5-6 percent a year in the future, compared to an average growth of 10 percent a year in 1955-66. As mentioned in paragraph 3.9, traffic growJth on the Southern Main Road has been over 11 percent annually and has continued at that level despite the aforementioned slowdown in the growth of the total vehicle fleet. Taking this into account, it has been conservatively assumed that traffic on the route between Port-of-Spain and San Fernando will grow at 8 percent a year up to 1970, and will then begin to decline to 5 percent a year beyond 1980,

5.2 The Southern Main Road is at present the only route between Port-of- Spain and the south. This highway is seriously congested and would soon become an impediment to the steady economic development of the country. The present route lies through heavily built-up urban areas, with poor alignment; any effort to widen it will be both expensive and time-consuming because of difficulties in acquiring right-of-way. Hence the decision of the Trinidad Government to seek a new route avoiding administrative and legal problems and making it possible to construct a highway with optimum design features.

5.3 In connection with the project, the Government of Trinidad engaged consultants to undertake the following traffic studies on the existing route betw,een Port-of-Spain and San Fernando; (i) 24-hour volume counts over a period of seven consecutive days in both June and August 1965 at various points; and (ii) two 16-hour origin and destination studies during June 1965 and two 16-hour origin and destination studies during August 1965. Traffic forecasts for the proposed Southern Highway are based on the results of these studies, supplemented by the Highway Division's own studies as well as earlier traffic counts over several years.

5.4 On completion, the Southern Highway will constitute a major improve- ment on the route betwJeen Port-of-Spain, Trinidad's capital city and commercial po:^t, and San Fernando, the second city of the island, and other industrial and farming areas around it. On the basis of origin-destination and time-and- distance analyses, it is estimated that about 50 percent of the traffic between Port-of-Spain and points south of Chaguanas will initially use the new highway. But the existing road will again reach a high degree of congestion around 1975, after which the entire additional traffic volume is expected to divert to the new road.

5.5 The most important quantifiable economic benefits arising from the highwray construction included in the project will be savings in vehicle opera- ting costs an%," time savings applicable to travel between Chaguanas and San Fernando. There will also be some savings resulting from reduction in the incidence of accidents and the consequent damage to life and property. These are discussed in detail below.

B. Vehicle Operating Costs

5.6 Savings on vehicle operating costs arise from reduction in distance to be travelled, from the elimination of situations requiring slaoing down or stopping, and from permitting vehicles to maintain steadier and higher speeds. -14-

On the average, it is estimated that the reduction in distance to be travelled will be about one mile per passenger car trip and about two miles per trip for truc}s and buses which use the proposed road instead of the existing road, a reduction of around 10 percent, resulting in savings of 15 TT cents per car trip and 60 TT cents per truck trip. It is also estimated that on the average, the new road will eliminate two stops for each vehicle, resulting in a saving of 4.5 TT cents per vehicle unit in operating costs. In addition, several situations where traffic has to slow down on the existing route on account of traffic congestion will be eliminated; this is estimated to result in a further 1,5 - 2.0 percent savings in vehicle operating costs. There will also be some benefits to traffic using the existing road on account of decon- gestion, in the form of reduction in operating costs; this is estimated con- servatively at 1 percent. Together these savings would amount to about TT$ 265 million in 1971, rising to TT$ 7.5 million by 1991, and would yield an economic return of about 11 percent on the investment over an estimated useful economic life of 25 years.

C. Time Savings

5.7 The only time savings taken into account are those of truck, bus and taxi drivers . These have been conservatively valued at the Govern- ment wage rate of approximately TT$ 1 per hour applicable to vehicle drivers. Average time saved per trip wiTll be about 10 minutes. Time savings on the existing route have been ignored since these will be marginal. The value of these savings is estimated at TT$ 620,000 in 1971, rising to TT$ 1.8 million in 1991. These savings will raise the economic return on the project to 13.5 percent.

D. Reduction in Road Accidents

5.8 An estimate of road accidents during 1965 on the sections of the Southern PHain Road which will be supplemented by the proposed highway, shows that there were altogether 983 accidents, of which there were fatalities in 28, injuries to persons in 216, and damage only to property in 739. The property loss is estimated at approximately TT$ 900,000. It is expected that the proposed road, which will be a divided highway with limited access, will reduce the overall incidence of accidents by more than 25 percent fran what it would otherAise be, resulting in a saving of around TT$ 340,000 for 197, and rising to over TT$ 1.0 million by 1991 in accordance with the anticipated traffic growth. If these savings are added to the other benefits resulting from the project, the economic return on the proposed investment would be nearly 15 percent.

6. CONCLUSIONS AND RECO0W EMATIONS 6.1 The proposed project comprising the engineering and const action of an expressway and consultants' services for subsequent improvements to the related highway system, will help relieve the increasing traffic congestion on the route between the two most important urban centers in Trinidad, Port-of-Spain arid San Fernando. The project is technically sound and eco- no,iically justified. The cost estimate is realistic.

6.2 The proposed project provides a suitable basis for a Bank loan of US$ 8.6 million equivalent. An appropriate term would be 25 years, including a )0-year period of grace.

may 18, 1967 Table 1

TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO

ROAD MILEAGE: 1955-1966

Year Paved Roads Gravel Roads Earth Roads Totals 1955 1,862 608 1,428 3,898 1956 1,918 594 1,418 3,930 1957 1,949 595 1,396 3,940 1958 1,979 619 1,366 3,964 1959 2,108 604 1,298 4,010 1960 2,237 567 1,234 4,038 1961 2,330 570 1,156 4,o56 1962 2,380 530 1,183 4,093 1963 2,405 528 1,182 4,115 1964 2,449 533 1,176 4,158 1965 2,475 542 1,156 4,173

1966 2,480 545 1,153 4,178 Table 2

TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO

Registered Number of Motor Vehicles: 1955-1966

Passenger Trucks and Total Year Cars and Taxis Tractor-Trailers Buses Motor Vehicles

1955 19,892 6,764 214 26,870 1956 21,989 7,160 188 29,337

1957 23,753 7,354 174 31,281

1958 25,150 7,883 241 33,274 1959 27,968 8,970 245 37,183 1960 33,027 9,628 239 42,894

1961 35,148 9,776 253 45,177

1962 36,094 9,652 310 46,o56 1963 48,457 14,434 320 63,211

1964 51,267 15,007 345 66,619 1965 55,277 15,667 359 71,303

1966 59,185 16,439 388 76,012

Anual Growth Rate 10.5% 8.5% 5.5% 10.0% Table 3

TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO

Estimated User Revenues and Highway Expenditures

1962 - 1966

(TT $ million)

A. User Revenues 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 Taxes on fuel 4.10 5.70 5.80 7.10 6.54

Import duties on vehicles, tires, etc. 2.70 2.40 3.50 3.50 3.54

Purchase taxes - 5.10 5.50 6.00 5.52 License fees 3.10 4.00 4.00 4.20 4.20 Total 9.90 17.20 18.80 20.80 19.80

B. Highway Expenditures Administration 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.90 Maintenance 8.40 9.40 11.30 11.90 12.73 New construction and improvement 3.80 3.40 4.20 4.80 4.29 Total 13.10 13.70 16.40 17.60 17.92 Table 4 TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO Pat9e 1

Highlay Project Expressway Design Standards

1) Number of Lanes Four (divided)

2) Width of: Lane 12 ft Shoulder (outer) 10 ft Shoulder (inner) 4 ft Median (rural expressway) 36 ft Ramps and Loops 14 ft

3) Design Speed: Rural Expressway: Flat country 60 mph Rolling Country 50 mph Semi-urban expressway: 50 mph Ramps 30 mph Loops 25 mph Over and underpasses 40 mph

4) MEiiAmum Radius of Curvature: Rural Expressway 1043 ft Semi-Urban Expressway 694 ft Ramps 231 ft Loops 154 ft Over and underpasses 427 ft

5) Maximum Gradients Rural Expressway: Flat Country 3% Rolling Country 5% Semi-Urban Expressway: 5% Ramps 6% Loops 6% Over and underpasses 6% 6) Minimum Length of Speed Change Lanes: Acceleration Lane 500 ft Deceleration Lane 350 ft 7) Maximum Super-elevation 10%

8) Minimum Verticle Clearance 16.5 ft 9) Other Geometric Design Features: AASHO

10) Paving: Asphaltic concrete with thickness to be determined according to soil conditions for all travelled ways, based on U.S. Asphalt Instituite's design criteria. Shoulders to be bituminous stabilized. Table i Page 2

11) Bridge Loading: British Standard 153, Part A, 195h, or AASHO Type H-20S16 ,whichever is higher

12) Minimum Right-of-Way Expressway in underdeveloped areas 200 ft Expressway in developed areas 150 ft

13) Access to Expressway: Fully Controlled Table 5 T R I N I D A D AND T O B A GO

Scope of Highway Project

Cost in TT$ '000

_------Cost of Engineering Serwices------a Cost of Highway NAME OF HIGHWAY WCATION OF HIWHW Iegth Traffic Preliminary Econ. part of Detailed Supervision of Construction Work Right-of-Way in miles Survey Engineering Peas. Study Enginaering Construction Inl. Utilities Cost A I I

Beetham Highway Portof-Spain City Line to Churchill-Roosevelt Bigtmay 1.9 , ' 120 | Churchill-Roosevelt Bastern Nain Road to Highway Beeth. i (0.3) * * 130 (Eastern _ Main Road to Beetha igh to '2/ . Princess Kargaret Highway) Princess YArgaret Hidhay 3.6 33 15 342

Princess Margaret Highray Churchil-Rooaevelt '2/ 1 1 Highwaw to Chagua-as 7.5 56- 4 I 300 Southern Highw Chaguams to lat of 2/ 5 (Chagkas to 6 2/ Chae V1.lJe 2.7 ._._. 130 152 4 09 San 323 Fernando ast of CLase Villpage 12/ - --- Aa to ast of Couva 5.2 . 57 B . 5,299 , 180 Est of Couva I Iovt to last of St. Mgret 14.2 , , ' 850 1,350 5,910 '3/ 1so Bst of St. llrg'et to 2,8127 St. Joseph Village (Nortburn

Access to Son Fernando ' Byass Road) 4.5 e ' t t 7 6.748 t 470 Southern Higkwva Northern Access to San Extensin, Fernando to San Fernudo- Siparia-rin Road 3.0 15 t 15 245 , - _

Total Yileage from Port-of-Spain to San Fernando with connection to southern trunk roads 32.6

Total Cost of Negineering Servicess Tl 3.810 71 90 Contingencies:t 30 2,117 1,502 m 2 I _I I J2 _ 4_ Total Cost of Higshr Construction WV}TT4o !S5 Contingencies: 24.865

Right-of-ltEy T 1.153 1,153

Total Cost of Project: TL33.983

1/ Including the 1.4 aile section engineered by the Government md already constructed (see para 4.o8)

2/ Copleted

3/ Pqvemen. of second 2-lane carriagew ORGANIZATION CHART MINISTRY OF WORKS GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO

MINISTER

PERMANENT SECRETARY

ADMINISTRATIVE | |CONSTRUCTION SERVICES| | HGWYSDVSO BUILDING CONSTRUCTION|| DRIAEIVSO SERVICES DIVISION DIVISION HIHWY DIVISIO DIVISIONDRIAEIVSO

COMPTROLLER C IETRDRCO CO RSERVICESOFFICER OF HIGHWAYS CONTRUCTION DRAINAGE ENGINEER

OfAFICEOF CHIEF OFFICEOF DIRECTOR SERVICESOFFICER OF HIGHWAYS

T.A-MECHANICAL EOUIPMENT TT AO-ROADSDRAINAGE WORK STUDY OFFICER ~~~~~~~~~~RECORDS-ROADSAND BRIDGES ROADS ~~~~~~~~CONSTRUCTIONBULIGUATYSRVOS

TRANSPORT WIRELESS MATERIALS BR | PROPRIS DEINS DRANGDRAIN AGE DIVISION r DIVISION SECTION BRANCHSE BRANCH | BRANCBRANCHBRANCHOPSECTIO

INTERNAL AUDIT k0SFIN ANCE D ABRINANCE AINGENDCMAINTNANC SEC BRANCH

PERSONNELAND MANAGEMIENT |ARCHITECT ESTABLISHMENT SERVICES | BRANCH

E UARRIEMROADS RONDSTRCTIN RASONSRCINSTUTON RA BURIACIN G

I LANNI.. l SURVEYORS CNTUTI | ROADS' DRAWING SURVFYORS | SECTION SECTION INSPECTORS OFFICE SECTION

QUARRES I5||ROADISCONSTRIUCTION ROD CONSTR CTIONRA UFCN

SECTIONINORTHI SECTION(SOUTH)

IBRO-3145 AE

DETAILS OF EXISTING CONDITION OF ROAD SECTION FROM PORT-OF-SPAIN TO CHAGUAMAS AND SOUTH OF SAI FERNANDO AITDTFUTURE STEPS REQUIRED

1. Road access to Port-of-Spain is provided by the Beetham Highway, Eastern Taian Road and Lady Young Road, the first of which is meant to carry of the trucks to the center of the city and in particular to the port. However, the existing Beetham Highway consisting of two 23-foot roadways, separated by an 8-foot median, is restricted to vehicles of not more than 5 tons weight because of unfavorable soil conditions and faulty construction. It carries about 2,000 vehicles an hour in one direction during peak hours. The Government intended originally to resurface this 1.9-mile-long highway, which was constructed in 1959. On the Bank's recommendation, consultants were retained by the Government to investigate the causes of the uneven road surface and to estimate future traffic requirements. The consultants, BrowTn Engineers of Trinidad, a subsidiary of the U.S. firm Brown Engineers of New York, in consultation with a U.S. soil expert, Mr. L. Casagrande from Harvard University, came to the conclusion that the upper part of the embank- ment and the entire pavement should be reconstructed. Reconstruction of the existing four lanes and an interchange at the city line of Port-of-Spain, should follow shortly after completion of the engineering design.

2. The National Transportation Study now under way (paragraph 2.10), will establish a coordinated program for improving the road system and road transport and for abandoning the railroad which closely parallels the Eastern Main Road. The Government will decide, in consultation with the Bank, on the phased abandonment of the railroad not later than six months after receiving the result of the study, and before the consultants commence the detailed design of the interchange.

3. The Beetham Highway is connected to the main arterial to the east and the south, the Churchill-Roosevelt Highway, by a roundabout which is congested for several hours every working day. About 3,000 vehicles an hour were counted on the Churchill-Roosevelt Highway, which is 2-lane, near that intersection during peak hours in August, 1965. The Churchill-Roosevelt Highway was constructed by U.S. military forces in 1944-45. The section from the Beetham Highway roundabout to Princess Mlargaret Highway is about 3.0 miles in length and consists of a 23-foot-wide asphalt pavement with gravel shoulders. Major utility services have been constructed within the 200-foot-wide right-of- way. Traffic figures indicate that the Churchill-Roosevelt Highway will requl-re three lanes in each direction within 10 to 15 years. As the existing roadway is in good condition, it should be retained for one direction of travel. Inter- changes are proposed to be provided for this expressway at the Beetham Highway, Princess Margaret Highway and between them both. Construction should be undertaken as soon as the engineering is completed.

4. The existing Princess Margaret Hi gway from the Churchill-Roosevelt Highway to Chaguanas is77.5 miles in length. A portion of this highway was constructed by U.S. military forces in 19h5; the remainder was constructed locally several years later. It consists of a two-lane, 23-foot-wide asphalt ANIEX Page 2 pavement with gravel shoulders. The existing roadway is in good condition and should be retained as part of a four-lane expressway which would be needed in about five to ten years. Tto grade-separated crossings would be provided at approximately mile 1.5 and mile 3.5. Frontage roads will be provided for the numerous existing connections to Princess Margaret Highway to control the access. The traffic counted in August 1965 amounted to 11,000 vehicles a day with about 20 percent of trucks and buses.

5. An extension of the new expressway from the northern access to San Fernancdo to connect with the main roads south of the town, narmely, South Trunk Road and San Fernando-Siparia-Erin Road, would provide an outer, second bypass. The 1minimum distance of about half-a-mile from the existing, inner bypass would be sufficient to allow for the anticipated further development of Sana Fernando in this direction. The expressway would be extended by about three miles. Construction of the expressway, including the necessary interchange, should begin as soon as the engineering has been completed.

6. In order to locate properly the southern extension of the proposed Southern THighway, the future continuation has been investigated by a reconnais- sance study, which was completed in November, 1965. This study dealt with the route location between the southern outskirts of San Fernando and Point Fortir. .Ch~~~~~~ gevzarom

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