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The New Israeli Government The New Israeli Government: Preliminary Implications © 2020 IAI and Long-Term Effects by Ehud Eiran A new Israeli government led by them held by Blue & White). Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to ISSN 2532-6570 take office on 17 May 2020 following To break the political impasse, the March elections, the third vote in Netanyahu used fear and political eleven months. Initially, it seemed these poaching. In almost daily press had ended inconclusively, mirroring conferences on the COVID-19 the results of the two earlier rounds in emergency in March, he stressed the April 2019 and September 2020. By the grave threat to the nation, calling on end of March, however, Netanyahu, Gantz to join him in an “emergency” leader of the right-wing Likud party coalition government. and the longest serving prime minister in Israel’s history, orchestrated yet To many, this strategy was reminiscent another political miracle. of Netanyahu’s earlier tactics, exploiting fear and divisions for political gain, as Using the COVID-19 crisis, he convinced was done regarding the Oslo accords Benjamin (Benny) Gantz, the leader in the 1990s and Iran’s nuclear project of the main opposition Blue & White throughout the 2000s and particularly party, to join him in forming a coalition. since 2010. Moreover, much like he did This, despite the fact that the block in the past – in 2011 to the Labour party supporting the prime minister included and in 2012 to the Kadima party –, the only 58 Knesset1 seats (36 of them held prime minister has poached the leaders by Likud), while the block that opposed of opposition parties, convincing them Netanyahu commanded 62 seats (33 of to break ranks and join his coalition.2 2 In January 2011, Labour’s leader Ehud Barak 1 The Israeli Parliament. led four other members of the party to create Ehud (Udi) Eiran is a Senior Lecturer (US Associate Professor) at the School of Political Science, University of Haifa, Israel, and a Visiting Scholar at the Department of Political Science, Stanford University. He is also a board member in Mitvim – the Israeli Centre for regional foreign policies. IAI COMMENTARIES 20 | 37 - MAY 2020 20 | 37 - MAY IAI COMMENTARIES 1 The New Israeli Government: Preliminary Implications and Long-Term Effects This, at the cost of the opposition himself from legal proceedings.4 party’s implosion. Indeed, two factions of Gantz’s party refused to join the Netanyahu is deeply committed to coalition government.3 The official remaining in power. Beyond the coalition agreement created parity in ambition that propels politicians, cabinet portfolios between Blue & White Netanyahu seems to truly believe he is and Likud, alongside smaller parties indispensable for the country’s security. on each block. More importantly, the He is also convinced that remaining in © 2020 IAI agreement includes a rotating deal office will shield him from the law. With in which Netanyahu begins as prime a reputation for breaking promises, minister, to be replaced by Gantz in 18 many observers believe it is highly months. unlikely that the prime minister will actually leave his post in 18 months as Yet, it is far from certain that this the coalition agreement stipulates.5 government will survive as planned. Netanyahu’s corruption trial is Independently from these uncertainties, expected to start on 24 May. If the prime the cabinet can be expected to be more ISSN 2532-6570 minister is found guilty he would have moderate compared to the previous to step down, but only after all appeals one. Gantz as Minister of Defence and are exhausted. The law also allows the his Blue & White colleague, Gabriel Knesset to try and depose the prime (Gabi) Ashkenazi, as Foreign Minister minister in the timeframe between are more dovish than Netanyahu. The the initial judgment and the appeal. cabinet will also include two ministers This may result in a return to the ballot from the centre-left Labour party, as box earlier than expected. As the trail well one minister from Derch Eretz, progresses, Netanyahu may calculate a breakaway from Blue & White that that another round of elections could represents a right-wing voice that is help him in the court house. The prime deeply critical of Netanyahu. minister has already demonstrated he will go to great lengths to protect One key issue facing the new cabinet is the question of annexation. The prime minister has been promising for a while his own party called Atzmaut (Independence). that he will push for legal annexation of Labour left the governing coalition, but Atzmaut remained, allowing Netanyahu to retain power. In May 2012, in the midst of a set of no 4 Kobi Nahshoni and Itamar Eichler, “Netanyahu confidence votes that risked forcing an early Responds: A Hunting Trip, a Blood Liable” (in election, Kadima – then the leading opposition Hebrew), in Ynet, 28 February 2019, https:// party – joined the Netanyahu-led coalition, www.ynet.co.il/articles/0,7340,L-5471690,00. thus allowing the prime minister a longer term html. in office. 5 “Liberman: ‘Zero Chance Netanyahu Will Keep 3 These include the centrist Yesh Atid party Deal to Rotate Gantz in as Premier’”, in Arutz Sheva, led by Yair Lapid and Telem led by Moshe 4 May 2020, https://www.israelnationalnews. (Bugi) Ya’alon. They later joined ranks under com/News/News.aspx/279635; Lior Kodner, the name Yesh Atid–Telem, opposing the “I Made Shamir Believe Peres: This Time Gantz-Netanyahu coalition government. Two Netanyahu Will Not Hand the Mandate” (in members of Yaalon’s faction, however, joined Hebrew), in Haaretz, 11 May 2020, https://www. the coalition, creating a new party called Derech haaretz.co.il/digital/podcast/weekly/.premium- Eretz (The Way of the Land). PODCAST-1.8837914. IAI COMMENTARIES 20 | 37 - MAY 2020 20 | 37 - MAY IAI COMMENTARIES 2 The New Israeli Government: Preliminary Implications and Long-Term Effects parts of the West Bank into territorial These rifts are constructed, at least in Israel. Gantz took a similar position part, on tensions between different during the campaign, opening to an waves of immigrants to Israel. Broadly annexation of the Jordan Valley, a speaking, the descendants of people section of the West Bank. The Blue & who arrived earlier in the Zionist White-Likud coalition agreement has project (mostly from Europe), tend placed some breaks on this process, to vote centre-left. Immigrants that which is not expected to go ahead arrived later, (mostly from the Middle © 2020 IAI before July, and uncertainty remains as East and former Soviet Union) tend to to the actual extent of this move. vote centre-right.6 Both sides seem to agree on the effect of the elections: a In final analysis, the decision whether poll conducted by the “Israel Congress” to annex will mostly be affected by – a civil society effort to bridge gaps conflicting pressures on Netanyahu. between various groups in Israel – On the one hand, a possibly fading showed that 77 per cent of Israelis opportunity to annex the territory, saw the last round of elections as not least due to the uncertainty contributing to greater rifts in society.7 ISSN 2532-6570 surrounding US support, particularly after the November elections, may The second longer-term effect of accelerate this move. On the other, the the elections is a further decline in potential costs of the action, including public trust in the political class. Blue a possible collapse of the Palestinian & White’s raison d’être was to topple Authority and a crisis with Jordan, may Prime Minister Netanyahu. Its leaders prevail. After all, despite his combative committed never to be part of a coalition posture, Netanyahu is famously with a person who is facing serious cautious and prefers not to take risky indictments.8 Yet, after this third round, moves in the security arena that might the party (in a reduced form) did exactly affect his political horizons. that. Many former Gantz supporters expressed their opprobrium and some In this early phase, it seems there activists are even looking into the are at least four issues to consider possibility of suing him and the party as to the legacy of these elections in court for breach of trust.9 and the events that followed. First, tensions surrounding the repeated 6 These are generalizations and are not fully elections further exacerbated the rift reflected in the leadership. Prime Minister Netanyahu, the leader of the right, actually in Israeli society between Netanyahu’s belongs sociologically to the first group, while supporters and his opponents. Even the leader of the centre-left Labour party, Amir if Netanyahu will leave the political Peretz, belongs to the second group. 7 scene, these tensions are expected Yulia Stanger et al., Israel Congress, 10 May 2020. to remain, as they reflect deeper rifts 8 Lahav Harkov, “Gantz: Can’t Sit in Govt with between a universalist-liberal vision PM Under Indictment”, in The Jerusalem Post, 2 for Israel and a particularistic ethno- September 2019, https://www.jpost.com/israel- centrist approach. news/gantz-cant-sit-in-govt-with-pm-under- indictment-600401. 9 Alik Maor, “Activists of Hosen L’Israel/Blue & White Are Considering a Law Suit Against IAI COMMENTARIES 20 | 37 - MAY 2020 20 | 37 - MAY IAI COMMENTARIES 3 The New Israeli Government: Preliminary Implications and Long-Term Effects Moreover, to secure the coalition The vacuum created on the left is agreement, Likud and Blue & White expected to lead to two processes. A agreed to expand the cabinet, with greater willingness of some left leaning ministers increasing gradually to 36 Zionists to vote for Arab-led parties. as well as 16 deputy minister posts, This is especially true as Ayman Odeh, including some that have no real the current leader of the Joint List (a functional justification.
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