Israeli Election Bulletin | March 19

BICOM's Poll of Polls Aggregate Polling March 4-19

Several parties such as Raam, Meretz, Religious Zionists and Blue and White all polling close to threshold Party size and where they stand on major issues

Final messaging We are just four days away from the election and the parties have honed their nal messages. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continues to frame the choice as between him and Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid, deliberately downplaying the signicance of his rivals on the right. Netanyahu has continuously highlighted the success of the coronavirus vaccine procurement that he delivered and the subsequent ending of the lockdown, with nal restrictions conveniently being lifted today. Lapid’s campaign has shifted away from emphasising a ‘sane’, reasonable, and moderate leadership model to now siphoning o votes from the smaller centre-left parties in an eort to become the most realistic alternative to Netanyahu. Lapid's former partners in Blue and White are at most risk of losing out due to this shift. On the right, Yamina’s plan is to target Likud voters and promote Naftali Bennett’s economic plan. Similarly, New Hope's Gideon Saar is appealing to Likud supporters that want change but don’t trust Bennett not to join a Netanyahu-led government.

2/8 NEW from Fathom Journal

Eight Israelis explain their vote:

Fleur Hassan-Nahoum - Likud Emmanuel Navon - New Hope Shraga Alweiss - Yamina MK Oded Forer - Yisrael Beytenu Terry Newman - Yesh Atid Peter Lerner - Labour Ittay Flescher - Meretz Guli Dolev-Hashiloni - Joint List

Israel Democracy Institute President Yohanan Plesner argues the ongoing political crisis shows that the system is broken and provides recommendations for strengthening Israel’s democracy.

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BICOM Director Richard Pater, joins Paul Alster of Reel Israel to oer expert insight into the forthcoming March 23 Israeli general election.

Watch the video brieng

There are three possible scenarios

1. Full-on right-wing government The biggest question remains, just like in the last three elections, but perhaps even more pronounced, can Netanyahu along with the religious, hard right and Yamina reach a 61-seat majority. According to our poll of polls, the Netanyahu bloc (even with the addition of Yamina) stands at 58. In the past, the polls have underestimated Likud support and so with an extra 3 they could reach their goal. Yediot Ahronot 16.03.21 The grati says Naftali (Bennett) loves Yair (Lapid) As Bennett arrives to clean it up, NetanyahuNetanyahu has pushed the narrative that Bennett will sit in a Lapid led government, a notion Bennett has tried his best to dispel

2. Anti-Netanyahu coalition This alternative government would be made up of a diverse group that has little in common ideologically, apart from their desire to remove Netanyahu from oce. Despite promises by Saar and Bennett not to sit in a Lapid-led government, can they converge alongside Avigdor Lieberman, Labour, Meretz and Blue and White (if they get over the threshold) and form a viable alternative? Can they agree on a candidate for prime minister, or will they propose another rotation agreement? Although Lapid, to his credit says he views the Arab parties as legitimate partners, it is dicult to reconcile them being part of the same coalition as the right-wing elements (Lieberman, Saar and Bennett) needed to make this option work.

Yediot Ahronot 25.02.21

Lapid brings pizza to Saar and Bennett. Bennett says “we are socially isolating until March 23” Numbers wise, Lapid needs Bennett and Saar to join him in order to get to 61. Both right wingers however have vowed not to sit in a Lapid led coalition (partially in order to counter Netanyahu’s argument that its either Bibi or Lapid)

23.02.21 Haaretz Gideon Saar (right) is in the ring to ght Netanyahu, who prefers to attack Lapid. Netanyahu’s strategy is to try and ignore Saar and instead frame the elections as a straight choice between himself and Lapid (who many right wingers feel suspicious of) Israel Hayom 17.03.21

Benny Gantz is depicted as Forest Gump. Netanyahu calls out “Run Benny run!” As he chased by Lapid, Michaeli and Horowitz. Lapid has called on Gantz – who is polling near the electoral threshold – to pull out of the elections. Were Gantz to fall below it, tens of thousands of ‘anti Netanyahu’ votes would be wasted

Yediot Ahronot 09.03.21

Title: The World of Culture Returns Meretz leader Nitzan Horowitz, “To be, or not to be…” as Tamar Zandberg, Yair Golan and Rinawie Zoabi, the next 3 on the party list look on. Meretz is polling close to the electoral threshold and is in danger of disappearing

3. A fth election later this year If the latter group fails to reconcile behind a single candidate or rotation, and the Netanyahu camp also do not have a working majority, there will be another stalemate. Netanyahu will continue to lead a transitional government. In this scenario it will be even more signicant if the Blue and White Party were to make it over the threshold. Were Benny Gantz to continue being an MK and no government is formed, theoretically the alternate prime minister deal agreed last year will kick in in November 2021.

There remain several variables that make this election dicult to predict

In the background of lingering concerns over coronavirus, how will this aect voter turnout? Will the apathy towards politics in general have a bearing on turnout? Are the Likud supporters energised enough to bring out the vote? Will the four smaller parties (Blue and White, Meretz, Raam and Religious Zionists) cross the threshold, and if not how will those ‘wasted’ votes alter the overall balance between the pro and anti-Netanyahu blocs? Maariv 11.03.21

Netanyahu says, “I’m leading you away from the coronavirus, like Moses did from Egypt” A weary citizen replies “It’s a shame we also received the plagues” Israel has been mainly successful in its vaccination program but has suered a large number of deaths for a relative young country and the equivalent of an ‘island state’

23.02.21 Maariv

Purim costumes that will guarantee social distancing: Sea urchin Flying saucer The planet Saturn Benny Gantz

Election Podcasts

Episode 139 | Will anyone beat Bibi? Featuring Yaakov Katz and Tal Shalev Episode 138 | What to expect in Israel's 4th election featuring Dahlia Scheindlin and Anshel Pfeer Episode 136 | Yamina's perspective on the upcoming election featuring Yamina candidate Jeremy Saltan Episode 135 | Israeli public opinion featuring Professor Tamar Hermann

Episode 134 | A view of the elections from inside the Joint List featuring featuring MK Aida Touma-Suleiman

Episode 133 | How the New Hope party views Israel’s election featuring MK Sharren Haskel

Episode 132 | Yesh Atid’s perspective on Israel’s election featuring Yair Zivan Episode 130 | Israel enters another election cycle featuring Yaakov Katz

Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify and Google Podcasts

On 23 December 2020 the Knesset was automatically dissolved after the national unity government failed to pass a 2020 state budget. The election will be held on 23 March 2021. For more background on the collapse of the coalition, watch BICOM Director Richard Pater, read this BICOM Morning Brief, and our January 15 and February 12 Election Bulletins. View all of our election coverage here.