SOMALIA Seasonal Monitor November 14, 2016
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SOMALIA Seasonal Monitor November 14, 2016 FEWS NET publishes a Seasonal Monitor for Somalia every 10 days (dekad) through the end of the current October to December Deyr rainy season. The purpose of this document is to provide updated information on the progress of the Deyr season to facilitate contingency and response planning. This Somalia Seasonal Monitor is valid through November 20, 2016 and is produced in collaboration with U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU) Somalia, the Somali Water and Land Information System (SWALIM), a number of other agencies, and several Somali non-governmental organizations (NGOs). Most of Somalia remained dry; light to moderate rains in South-Central While most parts of the country remained dry, light to moderate rainfall was reported in localized areas of South Central Somalia in the first ten days of November. According to satellite-derived images, rainfall was received in parts of Bay, Bakool, Lower and Middle Juba, Lower and Middle Shabelle, and Galgaduud (Figure 1). These areas received 1-25 millimeters (mm) of rainfall, although a few isolated areas received between 25 and 75 mm. Despite moderate precipitation, rainfall was still below normal compared to climatology for the first ten days of November. During this time period, most areas experienced a rainfall deficit between 10 and 50 mm compared to the 2005-to-2009 short-term mean (STM) (Figure 2). In the Northwest, no rainfall was recorded from November 1-10. All pastoral and agropastoral areas in Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Sool, and Sanaag Regions remained dry. Rangeland conditions continued to deteriorate, most notably in Sool and Sanaag. Watering holes are dry in most areas and water is being trucked in for purchase. Livestock body conditions and productivity are very poor, and atypical livestock mortality has been reported. In the Northeast, all livelihood zones remained atypically dry from November 1-10. Pasture and water resources are extremely limited. Livestock migration in search of better rangeland is also very limited, as most neighboring regions are equally dry. Consequently, livestock body conditions continue to deteriorate and most households have few saleable animals. In central regions, Elder and Elbur Districts received light to moderate precipitation according to field reports. Rainfall was received in Coastal Deeh, Addun Pastoral, and Central (Cowpea) Agropastoral livelihood zones of these Districts. Rainfall improved pasture and water conditions and could support the germination of cowpea crops. However, all other areas of central Somalia remained atypically dry during the reporting period. Pasture and water conditions in these areas are significantly below average. In the South, localized light to moderate rainfall was reported from November 1-10. Light rainfall of up to 10 mm was reported in isolated areas of Hudur and Tiyeglow of Bakool Region. Rain gauge stations recorded 36 mm of rainfall in Hudur District. In Bay Region, light to moderate rainfall of up to 50 mm fell in localized agropastoral areas; Dinsor and Qansahdhere received slightly higher rainfall amounts than Baidoa and Burhakaba. Rain gauge stations recorded 77 mm in Dinsor. Most parts of Gedo and Lower Juba received no rainfall, with the exception of very light precipitation in localized areas of Southern Inland Pastoral and Juba Cattle Pastoral livelihood zones. In Middle Juba, all districts reported receiving near-average rainfall of up to 75 mm. In Lower and Middle Shabelle, most areas remained dry with the exception of Afgoye, Wanlaweyn, Adan Yabal, Jowhar, and Balad Districts, which received light to moderate rainfall. No precipitation was reported in Hiiraan. Although localized rainfall is supporting crop development in southern regions, rainfall remains insufficient for adequate crop development. No river flooding has been observed during the reporting period. According to the satellite-derived eMODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), vegetation conditions remain significantly below average throughout Somalia (Figure 3), as little to no rainfall has been received to regenerate pasture or water resources. The seven-day rainfall forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association’s Climate Prediction Center (NOAA/CPC) forecasts 10-30 mm of rainfall in most parts of the South Central Somalia and localized areas of the Northwest from November 14-20 (Figure 4); Up to 60 mm of rainfall is expected in pockets in these regions. The forecast suggests that most of northern Somalia and some parts of central Somalia will not receive rainfall. For more rain gauge data, please, contact [email protected] or visit www.faoswalim.org. FEWS NET Somalia FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily [email protected] reflect the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the www.fews.net/Somalia United States Government. SOMALIA Seasonal Monitor November 14, 2016 Figure 1. Estimated rainfall (RFE2) in millimeters Figure 2: November 1-10, 2016 rainfall anomaly (mm), November 1-10, 2016 (RFE2) in mm from 2005-to-2009 mean Figure 3. eMODIS Normalized Difference Figure 4. Global Forecast System (GFS) rainfall Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomaly from 2001- forecast in mm for November 14-20, 2016 2010 mean, November 1-10, 2016 Sources: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration(NOAA) /Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and USGS/FEWS NET Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2 .