Investigation of Morphological Changes in the Tamsui River Estuary Using an Integrated Coastal and Estuarine Processes Model
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Integrating Spatial, Temporal, and Size Probabilities for the Annual Landslide Hazard Maps in the Shihmen Watershed, Taiwan
Open Access Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 2353–2367, 2013 Natural Hazards www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/13/2353/2013/ doi:10.5194/nhess-13-2353-2013 and Earth System © Author(s) 2013. CC Attribution 3.0 License. Sciences Integrating spatial, temporal, and size probabilities for the annual landslide hazard maps in the Shihmen watershed, Taiwan C. Y. Wu and S. C. Chen Department of Soil and Water Conservation, National Chung-Hsing University, Taichung 40227, Taiwan Correspondence to: S. C. Chen ([email protected]) Received: 23 February 2013 – Published in Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.: 19 March 2013 Revised: 13 August 2013 – Accepted: 13 August 2013 – Published: 25 September 2013 Abstract. Landslide spatial, temporal, and size probabilities susceptible to landslides, and heavy rainfall during typhoons were used to perform a landslide hazard assessment in this or storms have indeed caused large landslides of loosened study. Eleven intrinsic geomorphological, and two extrinsic soil (Wu and Chen, 2009). Furthermore, climate change en- rainfall factors were evaluated as landslide susceptibility re- larges bare land areas, thereby increasing the frequency of lated factors as they related to the success rate curves, land- landslides in Taiwan (Chen and Huang, 2010). Because of slide ratio plots, frequency distributions of landslide and non- the uncertainties associated with natural disasters, risk man- landslide groups, as well as probability–probability plots. agement is necessary to minimize losses (Chen et al., 2010). Data on landslides caused by Typhoon Aere in the Shihmen In view of the growing emphasis on risk management in dis- watershed were selected to train the susceptibility model. -
Wang, M., M. Xue, and K. Zhao (2016), September 2008
PUBLICATIONS Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres RESEARCH ARTICLE The impact of T-TREC-retrieved wind and radial 10.1002/2015JD024001 velocity data assimilation using EnKF Key Points: and effects of assimilation window • T-TREC-retrieved wind and radial velocity data are assimilated using an on the analysis and prediction ensemble Kalman filter • The relative impacts of two data sets of Typhoon Jangmi (2008) on analysis and prediction changes with assimilation windows Mingjun Wang1,2, Ming Xue1,2,3, and Kun Zhao1 • The combination of retrieved wind and radial velocity produces better 1Key Laboratory for Mesoscale Severe Weather/MOE and School of Atmospheric Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing, analyses and forecasts China, 2Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms, Norman, Oklahoma, USA, 3School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma, USA Correspondence to: M. Xue, Abstract This study examines the relative impact of assimilating T-TREC-retrieved winds (VTREC)versusradial [email protected] velocity (Vr) on the analysis and forecast of Typhoon Jangmi (2008) using an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). The VTREC and Vr data at 30 min intervals are assimilated into the ARPS model at 3 km grid spacing over four different Citation: assimilation windows that cover, respectively, 0000–0200, 0200–0400, 0400–0600, and 0000–0600 UTC, 28 Wang, M., M. Xue, and K. Zhao (2016), September 2008. The assimilation of VTREC data produces better analyses of the typhoon structure and intensity The impact of T-TREC-retrieved wind and radial velocity data assimilation than the assimilation of Vr data during the earlier assimilation windows, but during the later assimilation using EnKF and effects of assimilation windows when the coverage of Vr data on the typhoon from four Doppler radars is much improved, the window on the analysis and prediction assimilation of V outperforms V data. -
The Influence of Assimilating Dropsonde Data on Typhoon Track
908 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW VOLUME 139 The Influence of Assimilating Dropsonde Data on Typhoon Track and Midlatitude Forecasts MARTIN WEISSMANN,* FLORIAN HARNISCH,* CHUN-CHIEH WU,1 PO-HSIUNG LIN,1 YOICHIRO OHTA,# KOJI YAMASHITA,# YEON-HEE KIM,@ EUN-HEE JEON,@ TETSUO NAKAZAWA,& AND SIM ABERSON** * Deutsches Zentrum fu¨r Luft- und Raumfahrt, Institut fu¨r Physik der Atmospha¨re, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany 1 Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan # Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo, Japan @ National Institute of Meteorological Research, Korea Meteorological Agency, Seoul, South Korea & Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan ** NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division, Miami, Florida (Manuscript received 9 February 2010, in final form 21 April 2010) ABSTRACT A unique dataset of targeted dropsonde observations was collected during The Observing System Re- search and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC) in the autumn of 2008. The campaign was supplemented by an enhancement of the operational Dropsonde Ob- servations for Typhoon Surveillance near the Taiwan Region (DOTSTAR) program. For the first time, up to four different aircraft were available for typhoon observations and over 1500 additional soundings were collected. This study investigates the influence of assimilating additional observations during the two major typhoon events of T-PARC on the typhoon track forecast by the global models of the European Centre for Medium- Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), and the limited-area Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Additionally, the influence of T-PARC observations on ECMWF midlatitude forecasts is investigated. All models show an improving tendency of typhoon track forecasts, but the degree of improvement varied from about 20% to 40% in NCEP and WRF to a comparably low influence in ECMWF and JMA. -
Science Discussion Started: 22 October 2018 C Author(S) 2018
Discussions Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2018-127 Earth System Manuscript under review for journal Earth Syst. Sci. Data Science Discussion started: 22 October 2018 c Author(s) 2018. CC BY 4.0 License. Open Access Open Data 1 Field Investigations of Coastal Sea Surface Temperature Drop 2 after Typhoon Passages 3 Dong-Jiing Doong [1]* Jen-Ping Peng [2] Alexander V. Babanin [3] 4 [1] Department of Hydraulic and Ocean Engineering, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, 5 Taiwan 6 [2] Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemuende (IOW), Rostock, Germany 7 [3] Department of Infrastructure Engineering, Melbourne School of Engineering, University of 8 Melbourne, Australia 9 ---- 10 *Corresponding author: 11 Dong-Jiing Doong 12 Email: [email protected] 13 Tel: +886 6 2757575 ext 63253 14 Add: 1, University Rd., Tainan 70101, Taiwan 15 Department of Hydraulic and Ocean Engineering, National Cheng Kung University 16 -1 Discussions Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2018-127 Earth System Manuscript under review for journal Earth Syst. Sci. Data Science Discussion started: 22 October 2018 c Author(s) 2018. CC BY 4.0 License. Open Access Open Data 1 Abstract 2 Sea surface temperature (SST) variability affects marine ecosystems, fisheries, ocean primary 3 productivity, and human activities and is the primary influence on typhoon intensity. SST drops 4 of a few degrees in the open ocean after typhoon passages have been widely documented; 5 however, few studies have focused on coastal SST variability. The purpose of this study is to 6 determine typhoon-induced SST drops in the near-coastal area (within 1 km of the coast) and 7 understand the possible mechanism. -
Understanding Disaster Risk ~ Lessons from 2009 Typhoon Morakot, Southern Taiwan
Understanding disaster risk ~ Lessons from 2009 Typhoon Morakot, Southern Taiwan Wen–Chi Lai, Chjeng-Lun Shieh Disaster Prevention Research Center, National Cheng-Kung University 1. Introduction 08/10 Rainfall 08/07 Rainfall started & stopped gradually typhoon speed decrease rapidly 08/06 Typhoon Warning for Inland 08/03 Typhoon 08/05 Typhoon Morakot warning for formed territorial sea 08/08 00:00 Heavy rainfall started 08/08 12:00 ~24:00 Rainfall center moved to south Taiwan, which triggered serious geo-hazards and floodings Data from “http://weather.unisys.com/” 1. Introduction There 4 days before the typhoon landing and forecasting as weakly one for norther Taiwan. Emergency headquarters all located in Taipei and few raining around the landing area. The induced strong rainfalls after typhoon leaving around southern Taiwan until Aug. 10. The damages out of experiences crush the operation system, made serious impacts. Path of the center of Typhoon Morakot 1. Introduction Largest precipitation was 2,884 mm Long duration (91 hours) Hard to collect the information High intensity (123 mm/hour) Large depth (3,000 mm-91 hour) Broad extent (1/4 of Taiwan) The scale and type of the disaster increasing with the frequent appearance of extreme weather Large-scale landslide and compound disaster become a new challenge • Area:202 ha Depth:84 meter Volume: 24 million m3 2.1 Root Cause and disaster risk drivers 3000 Landslide Landslide (Shallow, Soil) (Deep, Bedrock) Landslide dam break Flood Debris flow Landslide dam form Alisan Station ) 2000 -
A Vortex Relocation Scheme for Tropical Cyclone Initialization in Advanced Research WRF
3298 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW VOLUME 138 A Vortex Relocation Scheme for Tropical Cyclone Initialization in Advanced Research WRF LING-FENG HSIAO Central Weather Bureau, and Taiwan Typhoon and Flood Research Institute, Taipei, Taiwan CHI-SANN LIOU Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, California TIEN-CHIANG YEH Central Weather Bureau, Taipei, Taiwan YONG-RUN GUO National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado DER-SONG CHEN,KANG-NING HUANG,CHUEN-TEYR TERNG, AND JEN-HER CHEN Central Weather Bureau, Taipei, Taiwan (Manuscript received 6 November 2009, in final form 23 February 2010) ABSTRACT This paper introduces a relocation scheme for tropical cyclone (TC) initialization in the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (ARW-WRF) model and demonstrates its application to 70 forecasts of Ty- phoons Sinlaku (2008), Jangmi (2008), and Linfa (2009) for which Taiwan’s Central Weather Bureau (CWB) issued typhoon warnings. An efficient and dynamically consistent TC vortex relocation scheme for the WRF terrain- following mass coordinate has been developed to improve the first guess of the TC analysis, and hence improves the tropical cyclone initialization. The vortex relocation scheme separates the first-guess atmospheric flow into a TC circulation and environmental flow, relocates the TC circulation to its observed location, and adds the relocated TC circulation back to the environmental flow to obtain the updated first guess with a correct TC position. Analysis of these typhoon cases indicates that the relocation procedure moves the typhoon circulation to the observed typhoon position without generating discontinuities or sharp gradients in the first guess. Numerical experiments with and without the vortex relocation procedure for Typhoons Sinlaku, Jangmi, and Linfa forecasts show that about 67% of the first-guess fields need a vortex relocation to correct typhoon position errors while eliminates the topographical effect. -
Phase Concept for Mudflow Based on the Influence of Viscosity
Soils and Foundations 2013;53(1):77–90 The Japanese Geotechnical Society Soils and Foundations www.sciencedirect.com journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/sandf Phase concept for mudflow based on the influence of viscosity Shannon Hsien-Heng Leen, Budijanto Widjaja1 National Taiwan University of Science and Technology, Department of Construction Engineering, No. 43 Keelung Road, Section 4, Taipei 106, Taiwan Received 22 November 2011; received in revised form 4 July 2012; accepted 1 September 2012 Available online 26 January 2013 Abstract The phase concept implies that the state of soil changes from plastic to viscous liquid as a function of water content. This principle could be used to interpret the behavior of mudflows, the most dangerous mass movements today. When Typhoon Jangmi hit northern Taiwan in 2008, a mudflow occurred in the Maokong area as a result of the high-intensity rainfall. This case was studied using three simulations, each with a different water content. Based on the mudflow classifications, the primary criteria used in this study were flow velocity and solid concentration by volume, while the major rheology parameters directly obtained from our new laboratory device, the flow box test, were yield stress and viscosity. The results show that the mass movement confirmed the aforementioned criteria for mudflow when the water content reaches or exceeds the liquid limit. The flow box test can determine the viscosity for both plastic and viscous liquid states, which is advantageous. Viscosity is important for explaining the general characteristics of mudflow movement because it controls flow velocity. Therefore, the present study successfully elucidates the changes in mudflow from its initiation to its transportation and deposition via a numerical simulation using laboratory rheology parameters. -
The Impact of Dropwindsonde Observations on Typhoon Track Forecasts in DOTSTAR and T-PARC
1728 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW VOLUME 139 The Impact of Dropwindsonde Observations on Typhoon Track Forecasts in DOTSTAR and T-PARC KUN-HSUAN CHOU Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Chinese Culture University, Taipei, Taiwan CHUN-CHIEH WU AND PO-HSIUNG LIN Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan SIM D. ABERSON Hurricane Research Division, NOAA/AOML, Miami, Florida MARTIN WEISSMANN AND FLORIAN HARNISCH Deutsches Zentrum fu¨r Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), Institut fu¨r Physik der Atmospha¨re, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany TETSUO NAKAZAWA Meteorological Research Institute, JMA, Tsukuba, Japan (Manuscript received 3 August 2010, in final form 1 November 2010) ABSTRACT The typhoon surveillance program Dropwindsonde Observations for Typhoon Surveillance near the Taiwan Region (DOTSTAR) has been conducted since 2003 to obtain dropwindsonde observations around tropical cyclones near Taiwan. In addition, an international field project The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC) in which dropwindsonde observations were obtained by both surveillance and reconnaissance flights was conducted in summer 2008 in the same region. In this study, the impact of the dropwindsonde data on track forecasts is investigated for DOTSTAR (2003–09) and T-PARC (2008) experi- ments. Two operational global models from NCEP and ECMWF are used to evaluate the impact of dropwindsonde data. In addition, the impact on the two-model mean is assessed. The impact of dropwindsonde data on track forecasts is different in the NCEP and ECMWF model systems. Using the NCEP system, the assimilation of dropwindsonde data leads to improvements in 1- to 5-day track forecasts in about 60% of the cases. -
Initializing the WRF Model with Tropical Cyclone Real-Time Reports Using the Ensemble
Initializing the WRF Model with Tropical Cyclone Real-Time Reports using the Ensemble Kalman Filter Algorithm Tien Duc Du(1), Thanh Ngo-Duc(2), and Chanh Kieu(3)* (1)National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, 8 Phao Dai Lang, Hanoi, Vietnam 1 (2)Department of Space and Aeronautics, University of Science and Technology of Hanoi, Vietnam 2 (3)Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Indiana University, Bloomington IN 47405, USA Revised: 18 April 2017 Submitted to Pure and Applied Geophysical Science Abbreviated title: Tropical Cyclone Ensemble Forecast Keywords: Tropical cyclones, ensemble Kalman filter, the WRF model, tropical cyclone vital, ensemble forecasting ____________________ *Corresponding author: Chanh Kieu, Atmospheric Program, GY428A Geological Building, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN 47405. Tel: 812-856-5704. Email: [email protected]. 1 1 Abstract 2 This study presents an approach to assimilate tropical cyclone (TC) real-time reports and the 3 University of Wisconsin-Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS) 4 Atmospheric Motion Vectors (AMV) data into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model 5 for TC forecast applications. Unlike current methods in which TC real-time reports are used to either 6 generate a bogus vortex or spin-up a model initial vortex, the proposed approach ingests the TC real- 7 time reports through blending a dynamically consistent synthetic vortex structure with the CIMSS- 8 AMV data. The blended dataset is then assimilated into the WRF initial condition, using the local 9 ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF) algorithm. Retrospective experiments for a number of 10 TC cases in the north Western Pacific basin during 2013-2014 demonstrate that this approach could 11 effectively increase both the TC circulation and enhance the large-scale environment that the TCs are 12 embedded in. -
Shear Banding
2020-1065 IJOI http://www.ijoi-online.org/ THE MAJOR CAUSE OF BRIDGE COLLAPSES ACROSS ROCK RIVERBEDS: SHEAR BANDING Tse-Shan Hsu Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Feng-Chia University President, Institute of Mitigation for Earthquake Shear Banding Disasters Taiwan, R.O.C. [email protected] Po Yen Chuang Ph.D Program in Civil and Hydraulic Engineering Feng-Chia University, Taiwan, R.O.C. Kuan-Tang Shen Secretary-General, Institute of Mitigation for Earthquake Shear Banding Disasters Taiwan, R.O.C. Fu-Kuo Huang Associate Professor, Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering Tamkang University, Taiwan, R.O.C. Abstract Current performance design codes require that bridges be designed that they will not col- lapse within their design life. However, in the past twenty five years, a large number of bridges have collapsed in Taiwan, with their actual service life far shorter than their de- sign life. This study explores the major cause of the collapse of many these bridges. The results of the study reveal the following. (1) Because riverbeds can be divided into high shear strength rock riverbeds and low shear strength soil riverbeds, the main cause of bridge collapse on a high shear strength rock riverbed is the shear band effect inducing local brittle fracture of the rock, and the main cause on a low shear strength soil riverbed is scouring, but current bridge design specifications only fortify against the scouring of low shear strength soil riverbeds. (2) Since Taiwan is mountainous, most of the collapsed bridges cross high shear strength rock riverbeds in mountainous areas and, therefore, the major cause of collapse of bridges in Taiwan is that their design does not consider the 180 The International Journal of Organizational Innovation Volume 13 Number 1, July 2020 2020-1065 IJOI http://www.ijoi-online.org/ shear band effect. -
Integrated Coastal and Oceanic Process Modeling and Applications to Flood and Sediment Management
12th International Conference on Hydroscience & Engineering Hydro-Science & Engineering for Environmental Resilience November 6-10, 2016, Tainan, Taiwan. Integrated Coastal and Oceanic Process Modeling and Applications to Flood and Sediment Management Yan Ding U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory Vicksburg, USA ABSTRACT oceanic process models (INTCOM) can facilitate multi-purpose engineering practice in developing coastal flood management plans, as This paper presents an integrated coastal and oceanic process modeling well as designing erosion control structures by considering large-scale approach and its engineering applications for simulations of flooding and long-term variations of hydrological and meteorological conditions. and sediment transport in coasts and estuaries. It is demonstrated by a case study on the assessment of long-term morphological changes Various coastal and oceanic processes of waves, currents, and sediment driven by synthetic events (typhoons/hurricanes and monsoons) in the transport with a wide range of spatiotemporal scales can be found from Danshui River estuary in Taiwan. In addition to spatiotemporal deepwater to shallow water. At oceans, wind-generated surface waves variations of detailed flow circulations in the estuary, long-term are dominant, in which the scale of wave length varies from 1m to 1km. simulations of coastal and oceanic processes reveals key features of However, astronomical tidal waves have a long wave length usually seasonal morphological changes driven by waves, tides, and river with several hundred kilometers. As far as beach profile changes are flooding flows. It shows both short-term storms and long-term concerned, significant impacts to morphological changes happen in a monsoons are important for management of flood and sedimentation in relatively-narrow nearshore zone. -
Natural Hazard Updates: 29 Sep: Typhoon Jangmi Leaves Two Dead in Taiwan Tropical Cyclone 19W (Jangmi), Once a Super Typhoon, Is
30 September 2008 Natural Hazard Updates: 29 Sep: Typhoon Jangmi leaves two dead in Taiwan Tropical cyclone 19W (Jangmi), once a super typhoon, is now a weakening tropical storm, moving by just offshore from mainland China before clipping the southernmost part of Kyushu Island, Japan. According to the latest Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) warning #25, this tropical storm has sustained winds of 45 knots (52 mph), with gusts to near 55 knots (63 mph). Jangmi is moving across the still warm waters of the east China Sea, to the north of Okinawa, the PDC reported. Its forward speed is 7 knots (8 mph), moving in a northeast (55 degrees) direction. http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/asiapcf/09/28/taiwan.typhoon.jangmi.ap/index.html http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSTRE48S0EM20080929?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews 29 Sep: Death toll from monsoon floods in Thailand reach 18’ Health officials in Thailand say that the death toll from monsoon flooding in the country has gone up to 18, while almost 190,000 people have suffered from health ailments. At least 24 of Thailandʹs 76 provinces have been flooded since September 11. Thailandʹs public health ministry says that the 18 victims were killed in flood waters in the north, northeast and central regions, Agence France‐Presse (AFP) reported. Thailandʹs Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Department under the interior ministry said that 839,573 people have been affected and economic losses have been estimated at US$3.4 million (115 million baht), including damages to homes, bridges, reservoirs, temples and schools. The department says that flooding has receded in 19 provinces.