DOCSLIB.ORG

Quality Land Bank and Relative High Gross Margin, Maintain "Accumulate"

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Quality Land Bank and Relative High Gross Margin, Maintain 股 票 研 Research [Table_Title] Van Liu 刘斐凡 Company Report: Shenzhen Invest (00604 HK) 究 (86755) 2397 6672 Equity 公司报告： 深圳控股 (00604 HK) [email protected] 27 September 2018 Quality[Table_Summary Land] Bank and Relative High Gross Margin, Maintain "Accumulate" 有质量土储与较高的毛利率，维持“收集” 公 司 1H18 underlying net profit missed our expectation. Underlying net profit Rating:[Table_Rank] Accumulate 报 decreased 61.1% YoY to HK$407 mn. Maintained 告 Contracted sales is expected to accelerate in 2H18 and remain at a 评级： 收集 (维持) Company Report growth rate of around 10.0% during 2019 and 2020. Saleable resources in 2H18 reached approximately RMB30.0 bn (indicating 49.3% target sale-through rate). In addition, RMB20.0 bn in saleable resources were 6[Table_Price]-18m TP 目标价 : HK$2.77 non-residential property projects in Shenzhen, which partially avoided effects Revised from 原目标价: HK$3.61 from the government's stringent policy on the residential housing market. Share price 股价: HK$2.490 However, land replenishment initiatives in Shenzhen have gradually become 告 difficult. Thus, contracted sales might retain growth rate of around 10.0% in 证 报 2019 and 2020. Stock performance 券 股价表现 究 We expect relatively high gross margin for the Company. The Company's 研 gross margin is expected to remain at around 33.0% between 2018 and 2020 研 [Table_QuotePic] 究 due to its quality land bank and more saleable resources in the Big Bay Area. In addition, funding cost should remain within low levels. We also expect 券 报 that the loss from fair value of financial assets will reduce because of the 告 证 sound rise in Evergrande's share price since 30 Jun. 2018. The Company's Equity Research Report profitability should recover. Because we have revised down underlying net profit, we revise down the target price from HK$3.61 to HK$2.77, which represents a 60% discount to its [Tab revised 2018E NAV, 8.0x underlying 2018 PER and 0.5x 2018 PBR. We le_I maintain "Accumulate". Risk factors: lower-than-expected contracted sales and policies may further tighten in Shenzhen. nfo1 2018 年上半年核心净利低于预期。核心净利同比下跌 61.1%到 407 百万港元。 ] 房 预期合约销售在 2018 年下半年加速并在 2019-2020 年维持 10.0%左右的增速。2018 年 地 下半年的可售资源约为人民币 300 亿元（预示 49.3%的去化率）。另外，人民币 200 亿元 产 的可售货值为深圳非住宅类项目，这能够部分规避政府在住宅市场的严格政策。然而深圳 Change[Table_PriceChange] in Share Price 1 M 3 M 1 Y 行 的土地补充已逐渐变得艰难。因而，合约销售在 2019-2020 年的增速可能维持在 10.0%左 股价变动 个月 个月 年 右。 1 3 1 业 Abs. % Property Sector (3.5) (10.4) (30.1) 我们预期公司相对高的毛利率。因为有质量的土储以及未来在粤港澳大湾区更多的可售资 绝对变动 % Rel. % to HS Index 源，公司毛利率将在 2018 到 2020 年维持在 33.0%左右。另外，融资成本应会保持在一个 相对恒指变动 % (1.5) (8.2) (30.3) 较低水平。基于自 2018 年 6 月 30 日以来恒大股价的显著上升，我们也预计来自金融资产 Avg. Share price(HK$) 平均股价（港元） 2.4 2.6 3.2 公允价值的损失将会缩小。公司的盈利能力应会恢复。 Source: Bloomberg, Guotai Junan International. 因为我们下调了核心盈利，我们将目标价从 3.61 港元下调至 2.77 港元，相当于较 2018 年每股净资产有 60%的折让，也分别相当于 8.0 倍 2018 年核心市盈率和 0.5 倍 2018 年市 [Tab 净率。我们维持“收集”。风险：低于预期的合约销售以及深圳的政策可能进一步收紧。 le_I Y[Table_ear End Turnover Net Profit EPS EPS PER BPS PBR DPS Yield ROE nfo2 年结Profit] 收入 股东净利 每股净利 每股净利变动 市盈率 每股净资产 市净率 每股股息 股息率 净资产收益率 ] 12/31 (HK$ m) (HK$ m) (HK$) (△ %) (x) (HK$) (x) (HK$) (%) (%) 2016A 21,354 3,171 0.424 4.4 5.9 4.383 0.6 0.225 9.0 9.6 深 2017A 10,254 4,951 0.636 50.0 3.9 5.312 0.5 0.185 7.4 13.3 圳 2018F 24,376 2,905 0.360 (43.4) 6.9 5.603 0.4 0.180 7.2 6.7 控 2019F 27,758 3,957 0.490 36.1 5.1 5.818 0.4 0.216 8.7 8.6 股 2020F 30,580 4,457 0.552 12.7 4.5 6.141 0.4 0.221 8.9 9.2 [Table_BaseData]Shares in issue (m) 总股数 (m) 8,231.8 Major shareholder 大股东 SHUM YIP HOLDINGS 62.4% Market cap. (HK$ m) 市值 (HK$ m) 20,497.2 Free float (%) 自由流通比率 (%) 37.6 3 month average vol. 3 个月平均成交股数 (‘000) 9,378.8 FY18 Net gearing (%) FY18 净负债/股东资金 (%) 32.6 Shenzhen HK) Invest (00604 52 Weeks high/low (HK$) 52 周高/低 (HK$) 3.810 / 2.270 FY18 Est. NAV (HK$) FY18 每股估值（港元） 6.8 Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International. See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 9 [Table_PageHeader]Shenzhen Invest (00604 HK) Housing sales maintained steady growth. During Jan.-Aug. 2018, the YoY increase in commodity house sales maintained steady growth compared to that during Jan.-Jul. 2018. The YoY increase in investment de] creased1 r a slightlyM t h byg 0.1i ppts.R _ Moreover,e l b a T [ land area sold increased 15.6% YoY during Jan.-Aug. 2018. Sources of funds for real estate development enterprises recorded moderate YoY rebound. We expect steady investment. Housing sales amount remained high in absolute terms. In addition, saleable areas extended downside momentum. Subsequently, we argue steady fundamentals for the property market. Figure 1: Cumulative House Sales Amount in China Figure 2: Cumulative House Sales GFA in China 16,000 70.0% 1,800 50.0% 27 September 2018 60.0% 14,000 1,600 40.0% 50.0% 12,000 1,400 40.0% 30.0% 1,200 10,000 30.0% 20.0% 1,000 8,000 20.0% 10.0% 10.0% 800 6,000 0.0% 0.0% 600 4,000 -10.0% -10.0% 400 2,000 -20.0% 200 -20.0% 0 -30.0% 0 -30.0% 15 15 16 17 17 16 18 15 15 16 17 18 14 16 17 15 17 18 16 14 15 16 17 15 17 16 15 17 18 16 15 16 17 18 15 17 18 16 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Apr Oct Oct Apr Oct Apr Apr Jun Jun Jun Jun Feb Feb Feb Feb Aug Dec Dec Aug Aug Dec Aug Dec Jun Jun Jun Jun Mar Mar Mar Mar Dec Sep Dec Dec Sep Dec Sep Amount Sold of Commodity Houses (LHS)(RMB bn) GFA Sold of Commodity Houses (LHS)(sq.m. mn) Amount Sold of Residential Houses (LHS) (RMB bn) GFA Sold of Residential Houses (LHS) (sq.m. mn) Amount Sold YTD YoY of Commodity Houses (RHS) GFA Sold of Commodity Houses (RHS) Amount Sold YTD YoY of Residential Houses (RHS) GFA Sold of Residential Houses (RHS) ] 2 r a M t h g i R _ e l b a T [ Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, Guotai Junan International. Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, Guotai Junan International. Severe external environment will be maintained but policies should be moderately loose if the macro economy starts to deteriorate due to the Sino-US trade war. There should be no trigger for policy changes due to stable ASP, proper stock turnover and decreasing land auction premium. Tightening policies will be extended. Despite recent marginal loosening, the credit environment will follow a tightening trend in the long run. For the global market, the US has entered into an interest rate hike cycle, therefore, we expect that the PBOC will continue to reduce leverage and shrink its balance sheet in the long run. Monetary policy will be prudent and neutral, with the keynote of deleveraging. We think that commodity housing sales will only experience limited decline. Urbanization and demand from housing (00604 HK) replacement will lead to sustainable housing demand in 2018-2020. Moreover, if the property market starts to slump, the policy and credit environment related to the property sector should ease again to stabilize the property market as per the last round of policy easing which started on 30 Sep. 2014. 深圳控股 Figure 3: Key Property Development and Sales Data 30.0% 10.5% 7.7% 20.0% Shenzhen Invest 13.5% 8.1% 22.5% 15.8% 8.8% 6.5% 10.0% 19.8% 7.0% 8.9% 0.0% 2.0% 17.3% 1.0% 7.5% 0.0% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F -10.0% -10.7% -2.0% -14.0% -7.6% -14.0% -20.0% -7.0% -3.4% -30.0% -31.7% -40.0% GFA Newly Started YTD YoY Land Area Sold YTD YoY Investment YTD YoY GFA Sold of Commodity Houses Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, Guotai Junan International. 1H18 underlying net profit missed our expectation. Top line jumped by 107.3% YoY to HK$11,304 mn in 1H18 due to more GFA delivered. Gross profit amounted to HK$3,881 mn, up 76.7% YoY. Fair value of financial assets decreased HK$1,888 mn riding on Evergrande’s share price dropping. As a result, net profit fell sharply by 94.1% YoY to HK$217 mn, which missed our Report expectation. Underlying net profit dropped 61.4% YoY to HK$407 mn, again missing our expectation. Gross margins decreased 5.9 ppts YoY to 34.3%. Net profit margin also fell 15.6 ppts YoY to 3.6%. Net gearing ratio increased 21.6 ppts YoY. Cash balance decreased 28.0% YoY to HK$9,349 mn. Company See the last page for disclaimer Page 2 of 9 [Table_PageHeader]Shenzhen Invest (00604 HK) Table 1: Comparison of the Company’s Income Statement in 1H17 and 1H18 HK$ mn 1H17 ] 1 r a M 1H18t h g i R _ e Changel b a T [ Total revenue 5,454 11,304 107.3% Gross profit 2,197 3,881 76.7% GPM 40.3% 34.3% -5.9 ppts NP (Inc.
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Placing 400 Million New Shares at HKD 25.25, Underlying Profit
    Company Report: CR Land (01109 HK) Van Liu 刘斐凡 公司报告：华润置地 (01109 HK) +86 755 23976672 [email protected] 国泰君安研究 25 May 2015 Placing 400 million New Shares at HKD 25.25, Underlying Profit Revised up, Maintain fiBuyfl Research GTJA 以25.25港元配售4亿股,调高核心净利，维持“买入” Rating: Buy Maintained z CR Land (fithe Companyfl) plans to raise approximately HK$ 10.1 billion 评级： 买入 维持 by placing 400 million new shares at a price of HK$ 25.25 per placing ( ) share. The management intends to use the raised capital for further land acquisition, development costs and general working capital purposes. 6-18m TP 目标价: HK$29.40 Revised from 原目标价: HK$28.70 z Limited diluted effects with stronger balance sheet. As per our estimates, after the share placing completion, the underlying EPS will increase 0.3% due Share price 股价： HK$25.300 to the underlying profit being revised up and net gearing ratio will decrease 13.0 ppts in 2015E. Stock performance z Raised capital from share placing will help the Company’s land 股价表现 replenishment and new house set up plan acceleration, which is able to translate into earnings growth under the rebounding sales environment. 100.0 % of return z Maintain ‘Buy’. Raised capital from share pricing will help sales increase. 80.0 Expectations of loosening policies and southbound capital inflow with housing 60.0 sales rebound in April 2015 are likely to drive property companies’ valuation upside potential. We revise up the target price to HK$29.40, which represents 40.0 an 15% discount to revised 2015E NAV per share, 12.3x 2015 underlying 20.0 PER and 1.6x 2015 PBR.
    [Show full text]
  • STOXX Hong Kong All Shares 180 Last Updated: 01.05.2015
    STOXX Hong Kong All Shares 180 Last Updated: 01.05.2015 Rank Rank (PREVIOUS ISIN Sedol RIC Int.Key Company Name Country Currency Component FF Mcap (BEUR) (FINAL) ) KYG875721634 BMMV2K8 0700.HK B01CT3 Tencent Holdings Ltd. CN HKD Y 97.0 1 1 HK0000069689 B4TX8S1 1299.HK HK1013 AIA GROUP HK HKD Y 71.8 2 2 CNE1000002H1 B0LMTQ3 0939.HK CN0010 CHINA CONSTRUCTION BANK CORP H CN HKD Y 69.5 3 4 HK0941009539 6073556 0941.HK 607355 China Mobile Ltd. CN HKD Y 67.4 4 3 CNE1000003G1 B1G1QD8 1398.HK CN0021 ICBC H CN HKD Y 59.3 5 5 CNE1000001Z5 B154564 3988.HK CN0032 BANK OF CHINA 'H' CN HKD Y 46.7 6 6 HK0388045442 6267359 0388.HK 626735 Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing HK HKD Y 37.7 7 10 CNE1000002L3 6718976 2628.HK CN0043 China Life Insurance Co 'H' CN HKD Y 32.3 8 7 CNE1000003X6 B01FLR7 2318.HK CN0076 PING AN INSUR GP CO. OF CN 'H' CN HKD Y 28.9 9 9 HK0013000119 6448068 0013.HK 644806 Hutchison Whampoa Ltd. HK HKD Y 26.7 10 8 KYG217651051 BW9P816 0001.HK 619027 CK HUTCHISON HOLDINGS HK HKD Y 25.5 11 11 CNE1000003W8 6226576 0857.HK CN0065 PetroChina Co Ltd 'H' CN HKD Y 24.2 12 12 HK0883013259 B00G0S5 0883.HK 617994 CNOOC Ltd. CN HKD Y 24.0 13 13 HK0016000132 6859927 0016.HK 685992 Sun Hung Kai Properties Ltd. HK HKD Y 21.6 14 14 CNE1000002Q2 6291819 0386.HK CN0098 China Petroleum & Chemical 'H' CN HKD Y 21.3 15 16 CNE100000205 B0B8Z29 3328.HK CN0054 Bank of Communications Co 'H' CN HKD Y 20.2 16 17 HK0004000045 6435576 0004.HK 643557 Wharf (Holdings) Ltd.
    [Show full text]
  • Istoxx® Developed and Emerging Markets Ex Usa Pk Vn Real Estate
    ISTOXX® DEVELOPED AND EMERGING MARKETS EX USA PK VN REAL ESTATE Components1 Company Supersector Country Weight (%) Vonovia SE Real Estate Germany 3.58 Goodman Group Real Estate Australia 2.31 Mitsubishi Estate Co. Ltd. Real Estate Japan 2.14 Mitsui Fudosan Co. Ltd. Real Estate Japan 2.06 Sun Hung Kai Properties Ltd. Real Estate Hong Kong 2.00 Link Real Estate Investment Tr Real Estate Hong Kong 1.79 DEUTSCHE WOHNEN Real Estate Germany 1.71 Sumitomo Realty & Development Real Estate Japan 1.50 SEGRO Real Estate Great Britain 1.44 CK Asset Holdings Ltd Real Estate Hong Kong 1.33 China Resources Land Ltd. Real Estate China 1.14 SM Prime Holdings Inc Real Estate Philippines 1.11 LEG IMMOBILIEN Real Estate Germany 1.06 SCENTRE GROUP Real Estate Australia 1.04 UNIBAIL-RODAMCO-WESTFIELD Real Estate France 1.04 AROUNDTOWN (FRA) Real Estate Germany 0.85 China Overseas Land & Investme Real Estate China 0.84 WHARF REIC Real Estate Hong Kong 0.78 Mirvac Group Real Estate Australia 0.78 DEXUS Real Estate Australia 0.77 Nippon Building Fund Inc. Real Estate Japan 0.77 Stockland Real Estate Australia 0.75 Japan Real Estate Investment C Real Estate Japan 0.73 SWISS PRIME SITE Real Estate Switzerland 0.73 CAPTIALAND INT COMM TRUST Real Estate Singapore 0.71 GECINA Real Estate France 0.70 Ayala Land Inc Real Estate Philippines 0.69 Ascendas Real Estate Investmen Real Estate Singapore 0.68 New World Development Co. Ltd. Real Estate Hong Kong 0.66 CANADIAN APARTMENT PROP REIT Real Estate Canada 0.66 NIPPON PROLOGIS REIT Real Estate Japan 0.63 NOMURA REIT.MASTER FUND Real Estate Japan 0.62 CapitaLand Ltd.
    [Show full text]
  • STOXX Hong Kong All Shares 180 Last Updated: 01.04.2015
    STOXX Hong Kong All Shares 180 Last Updated: 01.04.2015 Rank Rank (PREVIOUS ISIN Sedol RIC Int.Key Company Name Country Currency Component FF Mcap (BEUR) (FINAL) ) KYG875721634 BMMV2K8 0700.HK B01CT3 Tencent Holdings Ltd. CN HKD Y 92.5 1 1 HK0000069689 B4TX8S1 1299.HK HK1013 AIA GROUP HK HKD Y 70.6 2 3 HK0941009539 6073556 0941.HK 607355 China Mobile Ltd. CN HKD Y 64.3 3 2 CNE1000002H1 B0LMTQ3 0939.HK CN0010 CHINA CONSTRUCTION BANK CORP H CN HKD Y 61.8 4 4 CNE1000003G1 B1G1QD8 1398.HK CN0021 ICBC H CN HKD Y 52.5 5 5 CNE1000001Z5 B154564 3988.HK CN0032 BANK OF CHINA 'H' CN HKD Y 40.9 6 6 CNE1000002L3 6718976 2628.HK CN0043 China Life Insurance Co 'H' CN HKD Y 30.3 7 7 HK0013000119 6448068 0013.HK 644806 Hutchison Whampoa Ltd. HK HKD Y 26.2 8 8 CNE1000003X6 B01FLR7 2318.HK CN0076 PING AN INSUR GP CO. OF CN 'H' CN HKD Y 25.3 9 16 HK0388045442 6267359 0388.HK 626735 Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing HK HKD Y 25.2 10 10 KYG217651051 BW9P816 0001.HK 619027 CK HUTCHISON HOLDINGS HK HKD Y 25.0 11 9 CNE1000003W8 6226576 0857.HK CN0065 PetroChina Co Ltd 'H' CN HKD Y 21.7 12 11 HK0883013259 B00G0S5 0883.HK 617994 CNOOC Ltd. CN HKD Y 20.9 13 12 HK0016000132 6859927 0016.HK 685992 Sun Hung Kai Properties Ltd. HK HKD Y 20.9 14 13 HK0004000045 6435576 0004.HK 643557 Wharf (Holdings) Ltd. HK HKD Y 19.7 15 14 CNE1000002Q2 6291819 0386.HK CN0098 China Petroleum & Chemical 'H' CN HKD Y 18.9 16 15 CNE100000205 B0B8Z29 3328.HK CN0054 Bank of Communications Co 'H' CN HKD Y 17.6 17 17 HK0003000038 6436557 0003.HK 643655 Hong Kong & China Gas Co.
    [Show full text]
  • Speed Shifting to a Lower Gear but Quality Is Improving, Maintain
    股 票 研 [Table_Title] Van Liu 刘斐凡 Company Report: Country Garden (02007 HK) 究 (86755) 2397 6672 Equity Research 公司报告： 碧桂园 (02007 HK) [email protected] 27 March 2019 Speed[Table_Summary Shifting] to a Lower Gear but Quality is Improving, Maintain "Accumulate" 速度换低档速但质量提升，维持“收集” 公 司 2018 underlying net profit was in line with our expectation. Top line Rating:[Table_Rank] Accumulate increased by 67.1% YoY to RMB379,079 mn in 2018. Underlying net profit Maintained 报 elevated 31.4% YoY to RMB33,864 mn. 告 评级： 收集 (维持) Contracted sales will sustainably grow but at a slower rate. We estimate Company Report that saleable resources in 2019 may reach over RMB780.2 bn. We estimate sale-through rate to decrease to below 70.0% in 2019 to factor in declining 6[Table_Price]-18m TP 目标价 : HK$13.61 demand in lower-tier cities. Revised from 原目标价: HK$12.28 We expect stable gross margins and healthy net gearing ratio. We Share price 股价: HK$11.960 estimate that the Company’s unit land cost was less than RMB2,742 per 告 sq.m., 32.6% of ASP during Jan.-Feb. 2019. We expect net gearing ratio to 证 报 be no higher than 56.4% during the same period. Stock performance 券 股价表现 究 With slower contracted sales growth, we think the Company should justify a 研 higher NAV discount than our previous expectations. Nevertheless, as we [Table_QuotePic] 研 究 revise up the underlying net profit, we revise up the Company’s target price 券 from HK$12.28 to HK$13.61, which represents a 40% discount to the 报 Company’s 2019E NAV of HK$22.68 per share, 6.1x underlying 2019 PER 告 证 and 1.5x 2019 PBR.
    [Show full text]
  • China Vanke Bloomberg: 2202 HK Equity | 000002 CH Equity | Reuters: 2202.HK | 000002.SZ Refer to Important Disclosures at the End of This Report
    China / Hong Kong Company Focus China Vanke Bloomberg: 2202 HK Equity | 000002 CH Equity | Reuters: 2202.HK | 000002.SZ Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report DBS Group Research . Equity 6 January 2016 H: HOLD (Downgrade from BUY) Shareholding uncertainty overshadows Last Traded Price (H): HK$20.80 (CSI300 Index : 3,540) strong fundamentals Price Target (H): HK$19.60 (6% downside) (Prev HK$23.41) Better-than-expected sales/acquisitions in Dec 2015 will likely lead to decent sales growth in 2016 A: BUY (Under review) Yet, shareholding structure is unlikely to improve in the near Last Traded Price (A): RMB24.43 (HSI : 20,981) term and potential asset restructuring is uncertain Price Target (A): RMB19.31 (21% downside) Shareholding competition will likely distract management Potential Catalyst: Better-than-expected shareholding structure efforts and affect Vanke’s long-term strategy Where we differ: Our FY15-17F EPS are below consensus Share price is under pressure after trading resumption; Analyst Downgrade Vanke-H from BUY to HOLD Ken HE CFA, +86 21 6888 3375 Uncertainty in potential asset restructuring (Details on page 3). The [email protected] difficulties are in: (i) identifying potential acquisition targets to fall in Carol WU +852 2863 8841 the definition of “material asset restructuring”, and to improve [email protected] shareholding structure (or mitigate Baoneng’s influence in Vanke’s Danielle WANG CFA, +852 2820 4915 board/strategy), as well as to strengthen Vanke’s traditional [email protected] residential and new business lines; and (ii) obtaining shareholders’ Andy YEE CFA, +852 2971 1773 approval given current shareholding structure and rich valuation.
    [Show full text]
  • Sustainable Quality Growth Prospect, Maintain “Buy”
    股 票 研 [Table_Title] Van Liu 刘斐凡 Company Report: China Aoyuan (03883 HK) 究 (86755) 2397 6672 Equity Research 公司报告： 中国奥园 (03883 HK) [email protected] 25 January 2018 Sustainable[Table_Summary] Quality Growth Prospect, Maintain “Buy” 持续且有质量的增长预期，维持“买入” China Aoyuan (“the Company”) announced a positive profit alert. The Rating:[Table_Rank ] Buy Company’s net profit in 2017 is expected to record a significant increase of at Maintained 公 least 75% YoY. 评级： 买入 (维持) 司 Strategic layout in the Big Bay Area with proper unit land cost hints at 报 sustainable quality growth prospect. 76.1% of the Company's land bank was in tier-1/ tier-2/ international cities, and its unit land cost amounted to 6[Table_Price-18m TP 目标价] : HK$8.87 告 RMB1,897 per sq.m., representing 18.9% of ASP in 2017. Revised from 原目标价: HK$5.45 Company Report Contracted sales are likely to maintain fast growth momentum. During Share price 股价: HK$6.890 2017, the Company achieved RMB45.59 bn in contracted sales, up 78% YoY. With quality land bank exposure and a healthy financial position, sufficient saleable resources will be launched in 2018 and 2019. Stock performance 股价表现 The Company should justify a lower NAV discount. As we have revised up [Table_QuotePic] underlying net profit, we also revise up the target price from HK$5.45 to HK$8.87, representing a 37% discount to 2018E NAV of HK$14.08 per share, 9.1x 2018 underlying PER and 1.7x 2018 PBR. Therefore, we maintain "Buy". Risk factors include lower-than-expected contracted sales and possible failure in operational activities of overseas projects and 证 redevelopment projects.
    [Show full text]
  • China Property Sector
    China / Hong Kong Industry Focus China Property Sector Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report DBS Group Research . Equity 14 Nov 2017 Whose sales growth can outperform in 2018? HSI: 29,152 · Increasingly high share price sensitivity to presales ANALYST growth compared with previous three years and this Danielle WANG CFA, +852 2820 4915 is likely to continue [email protected] Carol WU +852 2863 8841 · 2016 land acquisition a leading indicator for 2017 [email protected] sales growth Ken HE CFA, +86 21 6888 3375 [email protected] · Consolidation in the land market YTD likely to Trista QIN +852 2863 8820 support developers’ market share gain in 2018 [email protected] · Sunac (1918 HK), KWG (1813 HK), CIFI (884 HK) and Country Garden (2007 HK)’s land acquisition pace topped other developers we track Share price performance this year has been highly sensitive to Recommendation & valuation contracted sale growth. We explored various factors’ relationships with the share price performance YTD. We found that the FY18F correlation between developers’ presales growth and share price Target Mkt Company Price Price Rec Cap PE performance has recovered to a high level comparable with 2013 HK$ HK$ US$bn x after hitting the lowest level in 2014. We believe this is due to a CIFI Holdings 4.05 n.a. NR 3.9 5.3 change in the profile of investors that resulted in southbound (884 HK) money being more active in the market. We see this continuing in KWG Property 7.95 n.a. NR 3.2 4.8 2018.
    [Show full text]
  • FIXED INCOME WEEKLY China Property Bonds: Who Are the Higher Quality Issuers?
    iFAST Research Team iFAST Research Team iFAST Research Team iFAST Research Team iFAST Research Team FIXED INCOME WEEKLY China Property Bonds: Who are the Higher Quality Issuers? Differentiate Between Strong and Weak Developers The spike in yields across Chinese property developers is currently presenting attractive investment opportunities. To help investors differentiate between the stronger and weaker property developers, we highlight some of their financial ratios, giving us a gauge of who faces lower risks of default. High Liquidity The cash ratio measures the amount of cash or cash equivalents held by the company over its short- term liabilities. The higher the amount of liquid assets it holds, the greater the ability for the company to meet bond payments on time and avoid defaults. Healthy Liquidity The CFO-to-Debt ratio is a measure of how the liabilities are covered by the cash flow generated from a company’s operation. The higher the amount of operating cash flow generated from its core businesses, the lesser the reliance on the borrowing, and the greater the financial flexibility for the company to meet bond payments. Low Leverage With lower levels of net debt-to-equity ratio, tightened liquidity or access to credit should be less of a concern to these companies. Strong Solvency Interest coverage ratio is measured by operating income (or earnings before interest and tax) over interest expense. A stronger level of solvency means firms have greater ability to avoid bankruptcy and repay their debt obligations. Who are the Strong Property Developers? We calculate a composite score by combining the aforementioned ratios via a standardisation method to provide a quick measure of the developer’s overall credit quality relative to its peers.
    [Show full text]
  • Business Still on the Uptrend, Maintain "Buy"
    股 票 研 [Table_Title] Van Liu 刘斐凡 Company Report: China Aoyuan (03883 HK) 究 (86755) 2397 6672 Equity Research 公司报告： 中国奥园 (03883 HK) [email protected] 5 September 2018 Business[Table_Summary Still] on the Uptrend, Maintain "Buy" 业务仍处于上升通道，维持“买入” 1H18 underlying net profit was in line with our expectation. The Rating:[Table_Rank ] Buy Company’s top line increased by 67.6% YoY to RMB13,667 mn in 1H18. Maintained 公 Underlying net profit increased 53.5% YoY to RMB1,045 mn. 司 评级： 买入 (维持) Contracted sales is likely to extend its uptrend. From Jan. to Aug. 2018, 报 the Company achieved RMB53.160 bn in contracted sales, up 144.9% YoY. 6[Table_Price-18m TP 目标价] : HK$8.08 告 Disciplined land replenishment initiatives with strong project Revised from 原目标价: HK$9.55 Company Report redevelopment capacity could constrain leverage expansion under the Share price 股价: HK$5.960 severe external environment. 53% of the Company's land banks were in tier-1/ tier-2/ international cities. Its unit land cost amounted to RMB2,036 per sq.m., representing 19.9% of ASP in 1H18. This could protect the Company’s Stock performance gross margin. 股价表现 Average funding costs will increase and profitability could slightly deteriorate through exchange losses. The Company should justify a higher NAV discount [Table_QuotePic] to factor in the severe external environment and declining land bank quality. Therefore, we revise down our target price from HK$9.55 to HK$8.08, representing a 49% discount to 2018E NAV of HK$15.72 per share, 8.0x 证 2018 underlying PER and 1.5x 2018 PBR.
    [Show full text]
  • Stoxx® Hong Kong 210 Index
    BROAD INDICES 1 STOXX® HONG KONG 210 INDEX Stated objective Key facts STOXX global benchmark indices provide a broad yet liquid »Broad and liquid benchmarks for market regions and countries representation of different regions and countries. worldwide The indices are derived from their respective Total Market Index (TMI). They are weighted according to free-float market cap and » Broad number of components cover about 95% of the free-float market cap of the relevant region or country. » Serve as benchmarks for their respective regions/actively managed funds » Serve as an underlying for a variety of financial products, are used for academic research and receive wide media coverage Descriptive statistics Index Market cap (EUR bn.) Components (EUR bn.) Component weight (%) Turnover (%) Full Free-float Mean Median Largest Smallest Largest Smallest Last 12 months STOXX Hong Kong 210 Index 781.3 392.1 1.9 0.5 49.9 0.2 12.7 0.0 7.7 STOXX Hong Kong Total Market Index 816.2 405.0 1.4 0.4 49.9 0.1 12.3 0.0 N/A Supersector weighting (top 10) Country weighting Risk and return figures1 Index returns Return (%) Annualized return (%) Last month YTD 1Y 3Y 5Y Last month YTD 1Y 3Y 5Y STOXX Hong Kong 210 Index 0.6 12.5 19.0 57.5 93.5 7.6 18.9 18.6 15.9 13.7 STOXX Hong Kong Total Market Index 0.7 12.2 18.6 51.6 83.5 8.1 18.4 18.2 14.5 12.6 Index volatility and risk Annualized volatility (%) Annualized Sharpe ratio2 STOXX Hong Kong 210 Index 11.4 12.6 11.9 16.9 17.6 0.9 1.5 1.5 0.9 0.7 STOXX Hong Kong Total Market Index 11.2 12.5 11.8 16.9 18.6 1.0 1.4 1.5 0.8 0.6 Index to benchmark Correlation Tracking error (%) STOXX Hong Kong 210 Index 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.1 7.0 Index to benchmark Beta Annualized information ratio STOXX Hong Kong 210 Index 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 -1.8 1.7 1.5 1.1 0.1 1 For information on data calculation, please refer to STOXX calculation reference guide.
    [Show full text]
  • BBMG (2009.HK): Weaker Cement Prices, TP Cut to HK$7.20 Cement Sector 28 April 2014
    BBMG (2009.HK): Weaker Cement Prices, TP Cut to HK$7.20 Cement Sector 28 April 2014 What’s new. We dialled into BBMG’s 1Q14 analyst call. The company Target Price HK$7.20 released unaudited 1Q14 results last Friday after the market close. EPS was 12m Rating Buy RMB5 fen and net profit was RMB214m in 1Q14 vs. a net loss of RMB61m in (24% upside) 1Q14. Revenue increased 20% y/y to RMB9,306m due to a substantial increase in booked revenue. Price Chart Cement. The company’s shipments grew 21% y/y in 1Q14, while production (HK$) growth was flat in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region. This suggests 7.50 further market-share expansion for BBMG amid capacity shutdowns. ASP 7.00 6.50 dipped 10% y/y to RMB212/ton, below expectations, due to keen competition. 6.00 1Q14 GP/ton improved by RMB12/ton y/y to RMB20/ton amid soft coal prices 5.50 but net profit per ton remained negative, though the loss narrowed y/y. ASP is 5.00 expected to increase in 2Q14 due to seasonal factors, but we expect a y/y 4.50 decrease following the worse-than-expected 1Q14 and still soft cement prices 4.00 Apr 13 Jul 13 Oct 13 Jan 14 Apr 14 in Northern China. Share price HSI rebased to sh. price Management indicated that capacity utilization is currently more than 90% and destocking started in April. It remains positive about demand prospects in Key Data Northern China due to demand from infrastructure construction for regional Price – HK$ 5.80 integration and industry restructuring in BTH.
    [Show full text]