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Company Report: CR Land (01109 HK) Van Liu 刘斐凡 公司报告：华润置地 (01109 HK) +86 755 23976672 [email protected] 国泰君安研究 25 May 2015 Placing 400 million New Shares at HKD 25.25, Underlying Profit Revised up, Maintain fiBuyfl Research GTJA 以25.25港元配售4亿股,调高核心净利，维持“买入” Rating: Buy Maintained z CR Land (fithe Companyfl) plans to raise approximately HK$ 10.1 billion 评级： 买入 维持 by placing 400 million new shares at a price of HK$ 25.25 per placing ( ) share. The management intends to use the raised capital for further land acquisition, development costs and general working capital purposes. 6-18m TP 目标价: HK$29.40 Revised from 原目标价: HK$28.70 z Limited diluted effects with stronger balance sheet. As per our estimates, after the share placing completion, the underlying EPS will increase 0.3% due Share price 股价： HK$25.300 to the underlying profit being revised up and net gearing ratio will decrease 13.0 ppts in 2015E. Stock performance z Raised capital from share placing will help the Company’s land 股价表现 replenishment and new house set up plan acceleration, which is able to translate into earnings growth under the rebounding sales environment. 100.0 % of return z Maintain ‘Buy’. Raised capital from share pricing will help sales increase. 80.0 Expectations of loosening policies and southbound capital inflow with housing 60.0 sales rebound in April 2015 are likely to drive property companies’ valuation upside potential. We revise up the target price to HK$29.40, which represents 40.0 an 15% discount to revised 2015E NAV per share, 12.3x 2015 underlying 20.0 PER and 1.6x 2015 PBR. Maintain ‘Buy’ investment rating. 0.0 z 华润置地（“公司”）计划以 25.25 港元每股的价格配售股数为 4 亿股的股份来募集港币 (20.0) 净额 101 亿元。公司管理层打算将募集的资金用于收购土地储备、开发成本及一般运营资 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Mar-15 May-15 HSI Index CR Land 金用途。 z 有限的摊薄效应和更强的资产负债表。根据我们的测算，随着配股完成，由于核心净利的 Change in Share Price 1 M 3 M 1 Y 增加，2015 每股核心净利将会增长 0.3%，同时 2015 年的净负债率会下降 13.0 个百分点。 股价变动 1 个月 3 个月 1 年 HK) (01109 Abs. % z 通过配股获得的资金将会帮助公司土地储备的补充和新房推盘计划的加速,并在消费反弹 绝对变动 % (1.7) 22.5 64.9 的大环境下转化为盈利的增长。 Rel. % to HS index 华润置地 相对恒指变动 % (1.5) 9.5 43.0 Avg. share price(HK$) z 维持“买入”。配股完成获得的资金将有利于销售增长。宽松政策释放和资金南下的预期 26.0 23.0 19.0 平均股价（港元） 加之 4 月房屋销售的反弹很有可能提高房地产公司的估值。我们调升目标价至 29.40 港元 Source: Bloomberg, Guotai Junan International. CR Land 相当于 2015 年 NAV 有 15%折让,12.3 倍 15 年核心市盈率和 1.6 倍 15 年市净率,并维持“买 入”评级。 Underlying Underlying Underlying Underlying Year End Turnover Net Profit EPS EPS PER BPS PBR DPS Yield ROE 年结 收入 核心净利 每股核心净利 每股净利变动 市盈率 每股净资产 市净率 每股股息 股息率 净资产收益率 12/31 (HKD m) (HKD m) (HKD) (△%) (x) (HKD) (x) (HKD) (%) (%) 2013A 71,389 10,357 1.775 27.5 14.3 14.531 1.7 0.437 1.7 19.1 2014A 88,381 12,226 2.095 18.1 12.1 16.547 1.5 0.544 2.1 16.2 2015F 108,291 16,242 2.395 14.3 10.6 18.094 1.4 0.605 2.4 18.1 2016F 114,156 17,848 2.575 7.5 9.8 20.281 1.2 0.614 2.4 16.8 2017F 126,905 20,315 2.931 13.8 8.6 23.218 1.1 0.702 2.8 16.7 Shares in issue (m) 总股数 (m) 6,930.9 Major shareholder 大股东 CR (Holdings) Ltd 61.2% Market cap. (HK$ m) 市值 (HK$ m) 165,232.8 Free float (%) 自由流通比率 (%) 38.7 3 month average vol. 3 个月平均成交股数 (‘000) 23,212.4 FY15 Net gearing (%) FY15 净负债/股东资金 (%) 28.8 52 Weeks high/low (HK$) 52 周高/低 29.100/13.620 FY15 Est. NAV (HK$) FY15 每股估值（港元） 34.6 Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International. Company Report Report Company See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 7 CR Land (fithe Companyfl) released an announcement of shares placing on May 13, 2015. The Company plans to raise approximately HKD 10.1 billion by placing 400 million new shares at a price of HKD 25.25 per placing share. The managements intend to use the raised capital for further land acquisition, development costs and general working capital purposes. Limited diluted effects and stronger balance sheet. The placing shares respectively represent 6.12% and 5.77% of the 25 May 2015 issued share capital before and after the enlargement. The price per placing share represents a discount of 7% to the closing price on May 11. As sales are likely to increase, the diluted effects are limited. Since capital raised from share placing will increase shareholders’ equities, the balance sheet would become stronger. We estimate that CR Land’s underlying EPS to increase 0.3% to reach 2.395HK$ after the placing and net gearing ratio to statically decrease by 13.0 ppts to reach 28.8% in 2015. Replenish land bank to maintain future revenue growth in an improved property market. In 2014, the Company recorded 9.7% YoY decrease in terms of attributable GFA. Looking forward, we expect more loosening measures will be on their way to result in lower home purchasing price and mortgage costs, which improve home sales in 2015. Therefore the prospect of housing market gradually turns to be positive. The Company needs replenish more land bank to maintain its market share and future revenue growth. Table-1: Land Acquisition in 2014 New Project Date Interest Total GFA Total Land Cost (RMB mn) Average Land Cost Shengyang Huanggu CR Plaza Jan 100% 417,000 1,234 2,960 Harbin The Arch Jan 100% 276,700 632 2,406 Shenyang Central Park Jan 36% 118,821 492 4,140 Beijing Mentougou Project Jan 55% 97,900 1,930 19,704 Liuzhou City Crossing Jan 55% 687,200 1,105 1,608 Xuzhou The Arch Jan 50% 327,554 1,112 3,395 Kunming Central Park Jan 100% 155,800 567 3,640 Guiyang CR International Community Jan 100% 1,259,500 1,480 1,172 (01109 HK) HK) (01109 Shijiazhuang City Crossing Jan 100% 433,500 1,430 3,299 Suzhou Wujiang The Arch Mar 50% 548,000 797 1,454 华润置地 Shantou City Crossing May 51% 468,491 1,570 3,351 Fuzhou City Crossing Jun 55% 463,000 2,914 6,292 CR Land CR Land Fuzhou Gulou District B&Q Project Jun 70% 225,200 920 6,633 Nanjing CR International Community Jun 60% 732,800 3,480 4,749 Nanjing Twenty-Four City Aug 51% 579,060 706 1,218 Ningbo Wantou Project Sep 33% 283,700 1,459 5,141 Wuhan Taoyuanli Project Sep 51% 83,000 418 5,056 Wuhan Changfeng Village Project Oct 100% 686,070 2,694 3,927 Guangzhou Olympic Statium Project Nov 100% 219,500 3,020 13,758 Nanjing Park Lane Manor Dec 100% 165,400 1,200 7,255 Hefei Shushan Science Island Project Dec 100% 195,600 997 5,098 Total 8,423,796 30,156 3,580 Source: The Company, Guotai Junan International. Supplement development costs and working capital to accelerate new house set up plan. The Company announced its April 2015 unaudited operating figures on May 11. During Jan.-April., CR Land recorded RMB21.3 billion accumulated contract sales, up 55.8% YoY. Accumulated contract sales in terms of GFA amounted to 1.8 million sq.m., up 42.2% YoY. CR Land has experienced strong house sales during this period. It has to accelerate new house set up plan to meet its strong house sales. Report Company See the last page for disclaimer Page 2 of 7 Figure-1: CR Land’s sale records Figure-2: China Property Sector Commodity Building Sold 10.00 20,000 1,400 15% 9.00 18,000 1,200 10% 8.00 16,000 7.00 14,000 1,000 5% 6.00 12,000 800 0% 5.00 10,000 4.00 8,000 600 ‐5% 25 May 2015 3.00 6,000 400 ‐10% 2.00 4,000 200 ‐15% 1.00 2,000 0.00 0 0 ‐20% Contracted Sales(bn RMB) （LHS） ASP （RHS） Commodity Building Sold （RMB bn）（LHS） YoY (RHS） Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International. Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China. Loosening measures started working and China's commodity houses sales rebounded. National Bureau of Statistics of China announced the data of April 2015 national real estate development and sales in 13 May 2015. During Jan. to Apr. 2015, the cumulative GFA sold of commodity houses amounted to 263.85 mn sq.m, down 4.8% YoY. The decline contracted by 4.4 ppts than that of Jan. to Mar. 2015. The cumulative sales amount of commodity houses amounted to RMB1,773.9bn, down 3.1% YoY, which narrowed by 6.2 ppts compared to that of Jan. to Mar. 2015. Property sales are supported by improving-housing demand. We see an obvious houses sales rebound in Jan.-Apr. 2015, thanks to several loosening measures including the decreased downpayment on mortgage of second housing, rate cuts, RRR cuts, favorable hosing funding policies recently. Nevertheless, the cumulative real estate investment growth in Jan.-Apr. 2015 still declined by 2.5ppts, compared with the growth in Jan.-Mar. 2015. In addition, floor space of commercial housing for sale amounted to 656.81 mn sq.m., up 24.7% YoY. Therefore, the prosperity degree of property industry continues to decline and the destocking pressure still existed.
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  • Speed Shifting to a Lower Gear but Quality Is Improving, Maintain

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    股 票 研 [Table_Title] Van Liu 刘斐凡 Company Report: Country Garden (02007 HK) 究 (86755) 2397 6672 Equity Research 公司报告： 碧桂园 (02007 HK) [email protected] 27 March 2019 Speed[Table_Summary Shifting] to a Lower Gear but Quality is Improving, Maintain "Accumulate" 速度换低档速但质量提升，维持“收集” 公 司 2018 underlying net profit was in line with our expectation. Top line Rating:[Table_Rank] Accumulate increased by 67.1% YoY to RMB379,079 mn in 2018. Underlying net profit Maintained 报 elevated 31.4% YoY to RMB33,864 mn. 告 评级： 收集 (维持) Contracted sales will sustainably grow but at a slower rate. We estimate Company Report that saleable resources in 2019 may reach over RMB780.2 bn. We estimate sale-through rate to decrease to below 70.0% in 2019 to factor in declining 6[Table_Price]-18m TP 目标价 : HK$13.61 demand in lower-tier cities. Revised from 原目标价: HK$12.28 We expect stable gross margins and healthy net gearing ratio. We Share price 股价: HK$11.960 estimate that the Company’s unit land cost was less than RMB2,742 per 告 sq.m., 32.6% of ASP during Jan.-Feb. 2019. We expect net gearing ratio to 证 报 be no higher than 56.4% during the same period. Stock performance 券 股价表现 究 With slower contracted sales growth, we think the Company should justify a 研 higher NAV discount than our previous expectations. Nevertheless, as we [Table_QuotePic] 研 究 revise up the underlying net profit, we revise up the Company’s target price 券 from HK$12.28 to HK$13.61, which represents a 40% discount to the 报 Company’s 2019E NAV of HK$22.68 per share, 6.1x underlying 2019 PER 告 证 and 1.5x 2019 PBR.
  • China Vanke Bloomberg: 2202 HK Equity | 000002 CH Equity | Reuters: 2202.HK | 000002.SZ Refer to Important Disclosures at the End of This Report

    China Vanke Bloomberg: 2202 HK Equity | 000002 CH Equity | Reuters: 2202.HK | 000002.SZ Refer to Important Disclosures at the End of This Report

    China / Hong Kong Company Focus China Vanke Bloomberg: 2202 HK Equity | 000002 CH Equity | Reuters: 2202.HK | 000002.SZ Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report DBS Group Research . Equity 6 January 2016 H: HOLD (Downgrade from BUY) Shareholding uncertainty overshadows Last Traded Price (H): HK$20.80 (CSI300 Index : 3,540) strong fundamentals Price Target (H): HK$19.60 (6% downside) (Prev HK$23.41) Better-than-expected sales/acquisitions in Dec 2015 will likely lead to decent sales growth in 2016 A: BUY (Under review) Yet, shareholding structure is unlikely to improve in the near Last Traded Price (A): RMB24.43 (HSI : 20,981) term and potential asset restructuring is uncertain Price Target (A): RMB19.31 (21% downside) Shareholding competition will likely distract management Potential Catalyst: Better-than-expected shareholding structure efforts and affect Vanke’s long-term strategy Where we differ: Our FY15-17F EPS are below consensus Share price is under pressure after trading resumption; Analyst Downgrade Vanke-H from BUY to HOLD Ken HE CFA, +86 21 6888 3375 Uncertainty in potential asset restructuring (Details on page 3). The [email protected] difficulties are in: (i) identifying potential acquisition targets to fall in Carol WU +852 2863 8841 the definition of “material asset restructuring”, and to improve [email protected] shareholding structure (or mitigate Baoneng’s influence in Vanke’s Danielle WANG CFA, +852 2820 4915 board/strategy), as well as to strengthen Vanke’s traditional [email protected] residential and new business lines; and (ii) obtaining shareholders’ Andy YEE CFA, +852 2971 1773 approval given current shareholding structure and rich valuation.