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Briefing Residential Sales January 2015

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Briefing Residential Sales January 2015 Savills World Research Beijing Briefing Residential sales January 2015 Image: Glory Chateau, Daxing district SUMMARY Given recent incentive policies, high-end residences with high asking prices accelerated their completion to enter the market in Q4/2014, rather than waiting until 2015. Beijing’s first-hand residential This led to transaction prices transaction volumes surged by 94.5% appreciating by 5.0% QoQ and 11.8% “The high-end residential QoQ to 3.8 million sq m, in reaction YoY to an average of RMB68,390 per to several incentive policies launched sq m. market is expected to enter an in H2/2014. However, the end of November still saw the first-hand The high-end villa market era of “RMB100,000 per sq residential price index down by 2% continued to show a positive m plus apartments” as several and 2.5% from that of this September performance, with transaction and December 2013, respectively. volumes up 39.7% QoQ and 22.6% luxury residences priced YoY to 320 units. Prices increased by Five Grade A apartments were 2.3% QoQ to RMB52,700 per sq m, above this landmark price are granted pre-sale certifications in up 13.6% YoY. Q4/2014, adding 724 units to the anticipated in 2015.” market. Meanwhile, transaction New high-end residence supply Joan Wang, Savills Research volumes surged to 764 units, almost will be more limited, with only 13 high- doubling that of the previous quarter, end residences scheduled to enter the and the highest level since Q1/2013. market between 2015 and 2017. savills.com.cn/research 01 Briefing |Beijing residential sales January 2015 Policies GRAPH 1 In the fourth quarter, the government First-hand mass-market residential supply, take-up continued to launch several incentive and price index, Q1/2006–Q4/2014 policies to stimulate the sluggish residential sales market, including: Supply (LHS) Absorption (LHS) Price index (RHS) 7 350 - The lowering of interest rates for the 6 300 first time in over two years took place in the last quarter of 2014. November 5 250 21 saw PBOC announce they would June 2005 = 100 cut the benchmark deposit and loan 4 200 interest rates for financial institutions, effective from 22 November 2014. 3 150 Specifically, one-year benchmark million sq m loan interest rates were lowered 2 100 by 0.4 percentage points to 5.6%, while one-year benchmark deposit 1 50 interest rates were lowered by 0.25 percentage points to 2.75%. In the 0 0 meantime, the upper limit of the Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 floating range for deposit and loan 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 interest rates was set at 1.2 times Source: Beijing Real Estate Transaction and Management Bureau, Beijing Municipal Bureau of Statistics, Savills Research the benchmark interest rate from the GRAPH 2 previous level of 1.1 times. This is years now sitting at 4.25%, where First-hand mass-market residential the first cut in the benchmark deposit commercial banks offer 6.15%, the and loan interest rate since July announcement is expected to spur supply, take-up and price index, 2012; on that occasion, first-hand borrowing. Q1/2006–Q4/2014 Figure 2 EN residential prices appreciated by 14% in the following twelve months. First-hand mass-market Supply (LHS) Absorption (LHS) Price (RHS) This is expected to spur people’s 3,500 Units 105,000 overview confidence in borrowing and lead to Stimulated by the aforementioned 3,000 90,000 increased transaction volumes in the incentive policies, combined with 2,500 75,000 RMB per RMB per sq m future. growing confidence in the stability 2,000 60,000 of the market, transaction volumes Units 1,500 45,000 - The Beijing Housing Fund surged 94.5% QoQ to around 3.8 Management Centre announced on million sq m in the fourth quarter, 1,000 30,000 31 December 2014 that the housing 76% of the total of the previous three 500 15,000 credit ceiling would be increased quarters. As a result, transaction 0 0 in the capital. Effective 1 January volumes totalled 8.9 million sq m Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2015, the policy adjustment will see in 2014, down by 28.6% YoY, and 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Source: Savills Research public housing accumulated fund the first time lower than the annum Page 1 loans increased from RMB800,000 supply since 2009. GRAPH 3 to RMB1,200,000. Specifically, the First-hand high-end villa market announcement sees first home Despite growing transactions in buyers who acquire a property not Q4/2014, self-use commodity supply, take-up and price, Q1/2006– exceeding 90 sq m eligible to apply housing (with prices 30% lower than Q4/2014 Figure 3 EN to borrow up to RMB1.2 million. projects in the same vicinity area) Supply (LHS) Absorption (LHS) Price (RHS) Restrictions for second home buyers accounted for nearly 20% of the 900 63,000 will see the upper limit remain at total transactions. Some developers 800 56,000 RMB800,000. In Beijing, where it is continued to offer price discounts to 700 49,000 common for a 100 sq m apartment spur sales, given the unsold inventory 600 42,000 sq RMB per m to fetch more than RMB3,000,000, level accumulated to 11.4 million 500 35,000 the announcement will be welcomed sq m by the end of 2014. The end Units 400 28,000 by aspiring homeowners. The new of November still saw the first-hand 300 21,000 ceiling height is also a record high for residential price index down by 2% 200 14,000 the top four cities (Beijing, Shanghai, from that of September, decreasing 100 7,000 Guangzhou and Shenzhen), with by 2.5% compared with December 0 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 RMB1.2 million now the highest 2013. 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 level in China. With interest rates for Source: Savills Research Page 1 accumulated fund loans over five 02 Briefing | Beijing residential sales First-hand Grade A Several old projects in the vicinity, tripling that of the previous quarter. apartment market such as No. 8 Royal Park (合生•霄 As a result, supply totalled 1,249 Five Grade A apartments (four new 云路8号) and Four Seasons Private units, the highest level since 2009. projects along with the new phase Apartments (四季世家), are currently Central Villa District (CVD) spans of one existing project) were granted posting transaction prices ranging both Shunyi and Chaoyang districts pre-sales certifications in Q4/2014, from RMB89,000-105,000 per sq m. and welcomed New World Lizun (新 adding a total of 724 units to the Meanwhile, other new projects were 世界丽樽) in Q4/2014, with pre-sale market. As a result, annum supply also granted with high proposed prices of RMB44,000-67,000 per totalled 3,424 units, the highest level prices ranging from RMB56, 000- sq m. Another two projects were since 2007. This can be attributed 98,000 per sq m. granted with proposed prices ranging to the loosening of the approval for from RMB33, 000-56,000 per sq m. pre-sales certifications for high- Echoing growing supply in the end residences by the government, fourth quarter and positive digestion In the fourth quarter, transaction combined with expected growing seen in projects launched since the volumes grew by 39.7% QoQ and demand given the series of incentive beginning of 2014 (such as Zhen 22.6% YoY to 320 units, with three policies launched in the past six Garden (臻园), Poly Hyde Park (保 projects (including new phases) months. 利海德公园), Foutain Palace (中海 launched in2014 – Western Art villa 枫丹公馆) and Kunyu Palace (琨御 (西山艺境)、Thaihot Beijing Yards The most notable case among the 府)), transaction volumes surged (泰禾•北京院子) and Ocean Palace new projects was Guanlan Jiayuan to 764 units, almost doubling that (远洋天著). Transactions for these (观澜嘉苑) (temporary name for pre- of previous quarter and the highest projects made up 55% of total sales certification). The project was level since Q1/2013. As a result, transaction volumes. As a result, granted a certification with a pre- transaction prices appreciated by transaction volumes reached 947 sales price as high as RMB165,000 5.0% QoQ and 11.8% YoY to an units, up 22.0% YoY. Supported per sq m. Neighbouring Beijing’s average of RMB68, 390 per sq m. by steady demand, high-end villa East Third Ring Road and situated prices increased by 2.3% QoQ to an in the Lufthansa area (one the oldest First-hand high-end villa average of RMB52,700 per sq m, up and most mature residential and market 13.6% YoY business areas in the locality), the The high-end villa market continued land plot of this project was acquired to perform positively. One new Residential land market by Sunac China in September 2013, project, plus new phases in two Despite overall land transactions with an adjusted accommodation projects, were granted pre-sales falling 29.0% QoQ to RMB33.3 billion value of RMB73,000 per sq m.
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