股 票 研 Research [Table_Title] Van Liu 刘斐凡 Company Report: Shenzhen Invest (00604 HK) 究 (86755) 2397 6672 Equity 公司报告： 深圳控股 (00604 HK) [email protected] 27 September 2018 Quality[Table_Summary Land] Bank and Relative High Gross Margin, Maintain "Accumulate" 有质量土储与较高的毛利率，维持“收集” 公 司 1H18 underlying net profit missed our expectation. Underlying net profit Rating:[Table_Rank] Accumulate 报 decreased 61.1% YoY to HK$407 mn. Maintained 告 Contracted sales is expected to accelerate in 2H18 and remain at a 评级： 收集 (维持) Company Report growth rate of around 10.0% during 2019 and 2020. Saleable resources in 2H18 reached approximately RMB30.0 bn (indicating 49.3% target sale-through rate). In addition, RMB20.0 bn in saleable resources were 6[Table_Price]-18m TP 目标价 : HK$2.77 non-residential property projects in Shenzhen, which partially avoided effects Revised from 原目标价: HK$3.61 from the government's stringent policy on the residential housing market. Share price 股价: HK$2.490 However, land replenishment initiatives in Shenzhen have gradually become 告 difficult. Thus, contracted sales might retain growth rate of around 10.0% in 证 报 2019 and 2020. Stock performance 券 股价表现 究 We expect relatively high gross margin for the Company. The Company's 研 gross margin is expected to remain at around 33.0% between 2018 and 2020 研 [Table_QuotePic] 究 due to its quality land bank and more saleable resources in the Big Bay Area. In addition, funding cost should remain within low levels. We also expect 券 报 that the loss from fair value of financial assets will reduce because of the 告 证 sound rise in Evergrande's share price since 30 Jun. 2018. The Company's Equity Research Report profitability should recover. Because we have revised down underlying net profit, we revise down the target price from HK$3.61 to HK$2.77, which represents a 60% discount to its [Tab revised 2018E NAV, 8.0x underlying 2018 PER and 0.5x 2018 PBR. We le_I maintain "Accumulate". Risk factors: lower-than-expected contracted sales and policies may further tighten in Shenzhen. nfo1 2018 年上半年核心净利低于预期。核心净利同比下跌 61.1%到 407 百万港元。 ] 房 预期合约销售在 2018 年下半年加速并在 2019-2020 年维持 10.0%左右的增速。2018 年 地 下半年的可售资源约为人民币 300 亿元（预示 49.3%的去化率）。另外，人民币 200 亿元 产 的可售货值为深圳非住宅类项目，这能够部分规避政府在住宅市场的严格政策。然而深圳 Change[Table_PriceChange] in Share Price 1 M 3 M 1 Y 行 的土地补充已逐渐变得艰难。因而，合约销售在 2019-2020 年的增速可能维持在 10.0%左 股价变动 个月 个月 年 右。 1 3 1 业 Abs. % Property Sector (3.5) (10.4) (30.1) 我们预期公司相对高的毛利率。因为有质量的土储以及未来在粤港澳大湾区更多的可售资 绝对变动 % Rel. % to HS Index 源，公司毛利率将在 2018 到 2020 年维持在 33.0%左右。另外，融资成本应会保持在一个 相对恒指变动 % (1.5) (8.2) (30.3) 较低水平。基于自 2018 年 6 月 30 日以来恒大股价的显著上升，我们也预计来自金融资产 Avg. Share price(HK$) 平均股价（港元） 2.4 2.6 3.2 公允价值的损失将会缩小。公司的盈利能力应会恢复。 Source: Bloomberg, Guotai Junan International. 因为我们下调了核心盈利，我们将目标价从 3.61 港元下调至 2.77 港元，相当于较 2018 年每股净资产有 60%的折让，也分别相当于 8.0 倍 2018 年核心市盈率和 0.5 倍 2018 年市 [Tab 净率。我们维持“收集”。风险：低于预期的合约销售以及深圳的政策可能进一步收紧。 le_I Y[Table_ear End Turnover Net Profit EPS EPS PER BPS PBR DPS Yield ROE nfo2 年结Profit] 收入 股东净利 每股净利 每股净利变动 市盈率 每股净资产 市净率 每股股息 股息率 净资产收益率 ] 12/31 (HK$ m) (HK$ m) (HK$) (△ %) (x) (HK$) (x) (HK$) (%) (%) 2016A 21,354 3,171 0.424 4.4 5.9 4.383 0.6 0.225 9.0 9.6 深 2017A 10,254 4,951 0.636 50.0 3.9 5.312 0.5 0.185 7.4 13.3 圳 2018F 24,376 2,905 0.360 (43.4) 6.9 5.603 0.4 0.180 7.2 6.7 控 2019F 27,758 3,957 0.490 36.1 5.1 5.818 0.4 0.216 8.7 8.6 股 2020F 30,580 4,457 0.552 12.7 4.5 6.141 0.4 0.221 8.9 9.2 [Table_BaseData]Shares in issue (m) 总股数 (m) 8,231.8 Major shareholder 大股东 SHUM YIP HOLDINGS 62.4% Market cap. (HK$ m) 市值 (HK$ m) 20,497.2 Free float (%) 自由流通比率 (%) 37.6 3 month average vol. 3 个月平均成交股数 (‘000) 9,378.8 FY18 Net gearing (%) FY18 净负债/股东资金 (%) 32.6 Shenzhen HK) Invest (00604 52 Weeks high/low (HK$) 52 周高/低 (HK$) 3.810 / 2.270 FY18 Est. NAV (HK$) FY18 每股估值（港元） 6.8 Source: the Company, Guotai Junan International. See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 9 [Table_PageHeader]Shenzhen Invest (00604 HK) Housing sales maintained steady growth. During Jan.-Aug. 2018, the YoY increase in commodity house sales maintained steady growth compared to that during Jan.-Jul. 2018. The YoY increase in investment de] creased1 r a slightlyM t h byg 0.1i ppts.R _ Moreover,e l b a T [ land area sold increased 15.6% YoY during Jan.-Aug. 2018. Sources of funds for real estate development enterprises recorded moderate YoY rebound. We expect steady investment. Housing sales amount remained high in absolute terms. In addition, saleable areas extended downside momentum. Subsequently, we argue steady fundamentals for the property market. Figure 1: Cumulative House Sales Amount in China Figure 2: Cumulative House Sales GFA in China 16,000 70.0% 1,800 50.0% 27 September 2018 60.0% 14,000 1,600 40.0% 50.0% 12,000 1,400 40.0% 30.0% 1,200 10,000 30.0% 20.0% 1,000 8,000 20.0% 10.0% 10.0% 800 6,000 0.0% 0.0% 600 4,000 -10.0% -10.0% 400 2,000 -20.0% 200 -20.0% 0 -30.0% 0 -30.0% 15 15 16 17 17 16 18 15 15 16 17 18 14 16 17 15 17 18 16 14 15 16 17 15 17 16 15 17 18 16 15 16 17 18 15 17 18 16 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Apr Oct Oct Apr Oct Apr Apr Jun Jun Jun Jun Feb Feb Feb Feb Aug Dec Dec Aug Aug Dec Aug Dec Jun Jun Jun Jun Mar Mar Mar Mar Dec Sep Dec Dec Sep Dec Sep Amount Sold of Commodity Houses (LHS)(RMB bn) GFA Sold of Commodity Houses (LHS)(sq.m. mn) Amount Sold of Residential Houses (LHS) (RMB bn) GFA Sold of Residential Houses (LHS) (sq.m. mn) Amount Sold YTD YoY of Commodity Houses (RHS) GFA Sold of Commodity Houses (RHS) Amount Sold YTD YoY of Residential Houses (RHS) GFA Sold of Residential Houses (RHS) ] 2 r a M t h g i R _ e l b a T [ Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, Guotai Junan International. Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, Guotai Junan International. Severe external environment will be maintained but policies should be moderately loose if the macro economy starts to deteriorate due to the Sino-US trade war. There should be no trigger for policy changes due to stable ASP, proper stock turnover and decreasing land auction premium. Tightening policies will be extended. Despite recent marginal loosening, the credit environment will follow a tightening trend in the long run. For the global market, the US has entered into an interest rate hike cycle, therefore, we expect that the PBOC will continue to reduce leverage and shrink its balance sheet in the long run. Monetary policy will be prudent and neutral, with the keynote of deleveraging. We think that commodity housing sales will only experience limited decline. Urbanization and demand from housing (00604 HK) replacement will lead to sustainable housing demand in 2018-2020. Moreover, if the property market starts to slump, the policy and credit environment related to the property sector should ease again to stabilize the property market as per the last round of policy easing which started on 30 Sep. 2014. 深圳控股 Figure 3: Key Property Development and Sales Data 30.0% 10.5% 7.7% 20.0% Shenzhen Invest 13.5% 8.1% 22.5% 15.8% 8.8% 6.5% 10.0% 19.8% 7.0% 8.9% 0.0% 2.0% 17.3% 1.0% 7.5% 0.0% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F -10.0% -10.7% -2.0% -14.0% -7.6% -14.0% -20.0% -7.0% -3.4% -30.0% -31.7% -40.0% GFA Newly Started YTD YoY Land Area Sold YTD YoY Investment YTD YoY GFA Sold of Commodity Houses Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, Guotai Junan International. 1H18 underlying net profit missed our expectation. Top line jumped by 107.3% YoY to HK$11,304 mn in 1H18 due to more GFA delivered. Gross profit amounted to HK$3,881 mn, up 76.7% YoY. Fair value of financial assets decreased HK$1,888 mn riding on Evergrande’s share price dropping. As a result, net profit fell sharply by 94.1% YoY to HK$217 mn, which missed our Report expectation. Underlying net profit dropped 61.4% YoY to HK$407 mn, again missing our expectation. Gross margins decreased 5.9 ppts YoY to 34.3%. Net profit margin also fell 15.6 ppts YoY to 3.6%. Net gearing ratio increased 21.6 ppts YoY. Cash balance decreased 28.0% YoY to HK$9,349 mn. Company See the last page for disclaimer Page 2 of 9 [Table_PageHeader]Shenzhen Invest (00604 HK) Table 1: Comparison of the Company’s Income Statement in 1H17 and 1H18 HK$ mn 1H17 ] 1 r a M 1H18t h g i R _ e Changel b a T [ Total revenue 5,454 11,304 107.3% Gross profit 2,197 3,881 76.7% GPM 40.3% 34.3% -5.9 ppts NP (Inc.