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Market Masala… the Flavors That Influenced the Market This Week

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Market Masala… the Flavors That Influenced the Market This Week Go India Advisors Weekly Newsletter Market Masala… The flavors that influenced the market this week Week 22/CY20: 24th – 29th May 1 Headlines this week Go India Advisors Deals – Jio stake sale/Kotak Bank QIP/Bharti Airtel stake sale Weekly Newsletter Triple agony – China-India border tension; Locust attack; Heat wave China's army trespassed into Indian territory across LAC. There is Jio announced 5th sale of it's equity, this time to escalation in tension as both sides have build-up substantial army KKR, a 2.32% stake for Rs11367cr. A total of 17% presence. A full blow out war is the last thing world can afford as it is sold in last one month, and possibly another fights Covid19. China is trying to hoodwink India against building 3% is on offer. The news of possible Jio listing road network near LAC. overseas, created buzz. India came under locust attack, a swarm of 15km long and 5km Kotak Bank raised approx Rs7500cr, selling 3.4% wide is seen. Rajasthan, Maharashtra and UP seem to be under in QIP. The issue was subscribed 3x. GIC, attack. Fortunately, Kharif crop is already harvested, however, if Oppenhiemer, CPPIB, Capital International and not controlled, Rabi crop could be under threat. local MFs were buyers. Bharti Airtel promoters sold 2.75% stake to raise If Covid19 was not enough, North India came under severe heat wave, highest in decades at this time of year. Delhi recorded Rs8433cr. Buyers were Societe Generale, temperature of 47.6degC. While Churu in Rajasthan saw Blackrock, Norges, Fidelity and local MFs. temperature cross 50.8deg C. It's scary given migrant labour is still on the move. 30-05-2020 2 Global Markets – No May day here Go India Advisors Ignores trade war build up; Beaten down cyclicals rebound as Tech pauses Weekly Newsletter Returns % Data for year 2020; except as specified 30-05-2020 3 Indian market – find feet Go India Advisors Financials gain; cheap valuations, Kotak QIP boosts sentiment Weekly Newsletter Indian Markets for Week Ending 30th May 2020 For more information: Click on the image. 30-05-2020 4 Indian Market back in ST positive trend Go India Advisors Market looking to go back to touch 9900/10000 Weekly Newsletter NIFTY 50 1. Market closed strongly. More upside on cards to 9900/10000. 2. Bank Nifty seems to have bottomed out. Pharma and Telcos look to outperform. 3. Supports – 9200/9000 4. Resistances – 9750/9900 30-05-2020 5 Q4FY20 GDP Numbers – beats estimates Go India Advisors Agriculture & Mining post strong performance Weekly Newsletter GDP growth in 4QFY20 at 3.1% (Bloomberg consensus est 1.6%) and full year FY20 at 4.2%; Bumper Rabi crop and continued government spending support Q4 GVA Real Gross Value Addition and its Components FY19 FY20AE growth at 3.0% Agriculture 2.40 4.00 Agri sector performed better than Industry Excl Construction 4.50 0.80 expected and grew 5.9% yoy and Mining and Quarrying (5.80) 3.10 government spending was at a healthy Manufacturing 5.70 0.00 10.1%yoy growth in Q4 Electricity, Gas and Water Supply 8.20 4.10 Services Excl Construction 7.50 5.00 Construction 6.10 1.30 Core GVA (ex Agri/Govt Spending) dropped Trade, Hotel etc 7.70 3.60 to a low of 1.1% yoy growth. Pvt Finance, insurance, real estate 6.80 4.60 consumption slowed to 2.7% growth yoy. Public administration, defence and other services 9.40 10.00 While fixed investment declined 6.5% yoy. GVA at Basic Price 6.00 3.90 GDP at Market Price 6.10 4.20 Fiscal deficit for FY20 at 4.6% of GDP against the budgeted 3.8% of GDP Source: CSO data; Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities 30-05-2020 6 FY21 GDP – Declining estimates Go India Advisors Q1FY21 to be trough, shocking core industries data for Apr'20, but in price Weekly Newsletter India GDP Forecast Revision (FY21/CY20; YOY %) Core Sector Contracts 38.1% YoY in April’20 Analyst Latest Release Pre Covid Interim Latest % YOY Apr-19 Apr-20 ICRA Rating - FY21 20-May 4.7% -1.0% -5.0% Core Infra Industries 5.1 (38.1) Goldman Sachs - FY21 18-May 3.3% -0.4% -5.0% Moody's - FY21 08-May 5.5% NA 0.0% Coal 3.2 (15.4) DBS Bank - FY21 04-May 5.8% 1.5% 1.0% Crude Oil 0.0 (6.3) Moody's - CY20 28-Apr 5.3% 2.5% 0.2% Natural Gas (0.7) (20.0) India Ratings - FY21 27-Apr 5.5% 3.6% 1.9% Fitch Ratings - FY21 23-Apr 5.1% 2.1% 0.8% Petroleum Refinery Prodt. 4.4 (24.2) S&P Global - FY21 17-Apr 5.2% 3.5% 1.8% Fertilizers (4.4) (4.5) Deutsche Bank - FY21 16-Apr 4.5% NA 1.2% Steel 13.3 (84.0) Barclays - FY21 14-Apr 5.2% 3.5% 0.8% Barclays - CY20 14-Apr 4.5% 2.5% 0,0% Cement 2.3 (86.0) IMF - FY21 14-Apr 5.8% NA 1.9% Electricity 5.9 (22.7) Source: CSO data; various reports 7 Bank Credit – growth on decline for last 10years! Go India Advisors Does this reflect the economic situation? Weekly Newsletter Outstanding Gross Bank Credit Growth 5 Yr CAGR Growth 3 Yr CAGR Growth 21.0% 18.5% 16.3% 16.3% 15.8% 14.9% 14.6% 12.1% 10.5% 10.6% 10.0% 10.3% 9.3% 9.1% 8.5% 8.6% 8.4% 8.7% 6.9% 6.0% 5.5% 5.3% 4.9% 4.8% FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 Source : RBI 30-05-2020 8 MSMEs Asset Quality was worrying pre-Covid too Go India Advisors MSMEs availing moratorium, trend to accelerate Weekly Newsletter Public Sector Banks Private Sector Banks Non-Banking Financial Companies 18.8% 7.6% 18.7% 7.3% 5.0% 6.5% 18.2% 18.1% 5.8% 5.8% 17.9% 4.5% 5.6% 5.2% 17.8% 4.2% 4.0% 4.9% 4.7% 3.8% 3.8% 3.7% 3.5% 3.4% 17.0% 16.7% 16.6% Source : TransUnion CIBIL 9 30-05-2020 Acquisition profile of MSME across lenders Go India Advisors Did Pvt Sector Banks/NBFC lose the plot chasing growth? Weekly Newsletter Public Sector Banks Private Sector Banks Non-Banking Financial Companies Super - Prime Prime Sub-Prime Super - Prime Prime Sub-Prime Super - Prime Prime Sub-Prime 5.1% 4.8% 5.5% 5.6% 10.4% 8.8% 9.8% 9.3% 9.8% 14.2% 19.3% 19.8% 20.5% 19.8% 20.7% 46.3% 44.0% 47.5% 48.6% 48.1% 43.1% 42.4% 66.9% 64.0% 65.3% 48.2% 48.1% 44.8% 64.3% 59.9% 50.5% 48.6% 47.7% 45.8% 42.1% 36.4% 37.8% 32.4% 32.1% 34.5% 25.3% 24.3% 26.2% 25.4% 25.9% Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Source : TransUnion CIBIL 10 30-05-2020 Stress Test 1; MSME behavior after GST Implementation Weaker MSMEs have high default rate Go India Advisors Weekly Newsletter July 2017 June 2018 Utilization rate <70% Default rate: 3.8% MSMEs who were in CMR -1 to 5 grade in Jul ’17 with CMR – 1 to 5 lower utilization rate have default rate of 3.8%, while it Default rate: 4.7% is 5.6% for the entities with Utilization rate >=70% Default rate: 5.6% >=70% utilization level. MSME Utilization rate <70% Default rate: 34% MSMEs who were in CMR -6 to 10 grade in Jul ’17 with CMR – 6 to 10 lower utilization rate have default rate of 34%, while it is Default rate: 31% 30% for the entities with Utilization rate >=70% Default rate: 30% >=70% utilization level. Note : Entities in CMR-1 to 5 are lower risk segment while in CMR-6 to 10 are higher risk segment; Source : TransUnion CIBIL Utilization rates points towards a borrower’s liquidity position as highly liquid borrowers tend to utilize their limits less. 30-05-2020 11 Stress Test 2; Economic Slowdown & NBFC Crisis Go India Advisors Structurally stronger MSMEs also started to struggle Weekly Newsletter July 2018 June 2019 Utilization rate <70% Default rate: 5.6% MSMEs who were in CMR -1 to 5 grade in Jul ’18 with CMR – 1 to 5 lower utilization rate have default rate of 5.6%, while it Default rate: 6.7% is 8.1% for the entities with Utilization rate >=70% Default rate: 8.1% >=70% utilization level. MSME Utilization rate <70% Default rate: 37% MSMEs who were in CMR -6 to 10 grade in Jul ’17 with CMR – 6 to 10 lower utilization rate have default rate of 37%, while it is Default rate: 34% 33% for the entities with Utilization rate >=70% Default rate: 33% >=70% utilization level. Note : Entities in CMR-1 to 5 are lower risk segment while in CMR-6 to 10 are higher risk segment; Source : TransUnion CIBIL Utilization rates points towards a borrower’s liquidity position as highly liquid borrowers tend to utilize their limits less. 30-05-2020 12 MSMEs – stress and liquidity Go India Advisors 37% of MSME extremely vulnerable; surprising low WC utilisation Weekly Newsletter Public Sector Banks Working Capital Utilisation Distribution of MSMEs as of Jan’20 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 CMR -1 to 5 & <70% Utilisation CMR -1 to 5 & >=70% Utilisation 81% 80% 80% 80% 79% 79% 79% 79% CMR -6 to 10 & <70% Utilisation CMR -6 to 10 & >=70% Utilisation 78% 78% 77% 76% 76% 76% 69% 22.30% 30.70% Very Small Micro 1 Micro 2 Small Medium Private Sector Banks Working Capital Utilisation 75% 14.30% 70% 69% 70% 66% 64% 62% 61% 60% 57% 55% 55% 55% 53% 32.30% 49% Very Small Micro 1 Micro 2 Small Medium Note : Very Small (< Rs10 lakhs), Micro 1(Rs10-50 lakhs, Micro 2(Rs50 lakhs -1 Source : TransUnion CIBIL 13 crores, Small (Rs1-15 crores) and Medium (> 50 crores) Financial stress – Banks differing approaches Higher retail loans likely means more NPAs Go India Advisors Weekly Newsletter “In the near term, the aim is to “Economic activity to pick up “COVID 19 crisis short term “Will deploy extra funds and preserve capital, manage only in Sept-Oct; Stress in the impact on microcredit, liquidity to work, will see a portfolio stress, reduce costs corporate book in FY21 will be collections to pick up post little kicker in credit growth”, and maintain adequate less than what we have seen in lockdown”, Bandhan Bank Bank of Baroda liquidity’, DCB FY20”, RBL % of loans under moratorium Loan-book breakup 77% Corporate Retail 91% 88% 65% 54% 63% 62% 54% 56% 53% 50% 50% 46% 47% 33%
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